Michaelyya/contrarian-claims huggingface dataset:
Iranian officials reported the discovery of an oil field containing as much as 10 billion barrels of crude oil in the waters of the Caspian Sea. The find was reported at a depth of around 1.5 miles, however, and Iran seemingly has little experience with deepwater development. With Iran facing a diminishing consumer base because of European sanctions, the find, if correct, could be used as political capital by Tehran should global oil supplies constrict when international sanctions take hold later this summer. Iran insists the world needs its oil and 10 billion barrels of new oil in its pocket certainly makes for attractive bargaining.
Why does the question of climate change science matter so much to conservatives? Why do they fight these battles with liberals and scientists so fiercely, when no one on the national level is suggesting nationwide limits on greenhouse gases?
Heres how these plots are done (Ive placed the method below in a wrapper function). The mle2 function used here is from Ben Bolkers bbmle package (I suspect that the method could be modified to use the more common mle function).
The General Accounting Office has analyzed the stark difference between the two studies and concluded that there are two principal reasons for it. First, the Bush Administration's estimate assumed that all reductions would be achieved domestically, while the Clinton Administration's estimate assumed that compliance would be largely achieved through the purchase of emissions reductions from other nations. Second, the economic growth rate assumed by the Bush study (2.3 percent a year for 1995 through 2010) was higher than the growth rate assumed by the Clinton study (2.1 percent for the same time period), and thus forecast a higher level of emissions. (GAO report, January 30, 2004).
(The page was later updated: it says that the pre-programmed biometry data were recorded on March 8th. I would doubt this more modest statement, too.)
A. Im not here to offer scientific insights. Idont know if the first-half conditions could lead
We've been hearing a lot about immigration on the campaign trail, most of it based on outdated assumptions and echoing the arguments made when Congress was considering so-called comprehensive immigration reform bills in 2006 and 2007.
PHILIP: Only I just heard your boyfriend here, and shes right. Right twice. You cant bully him into believing a fallacy. Affirming the consequent is as old an error as denying Truth exists. See how you like it. If you hold to fallacies, youre a bully. Youre a bully. Therefore you hold to fallacies.
Almost eight years ago, it looked like Rudy Giuliani and Barack Obama could have been going to compete for the White House.
Socialist Bolivian President Evo Morales said delegates needed to fight a ?battle between capitalism and life.? Without a strong agreement, global warming ?will keep getting worse,? he warned. Some of his proposed solutions: a ?Climate Tribunal? for ?climate criminals,? implementation of his ?Declaration of Rights? for ?Mother Earth,? and, of course, lots of capitalist money transfers. His sentiments were echoed by representatives of tin-pot dictators around the world ? most of whom love to blame the problems they have created in their own countries on global warming and ?evil capitalist? countries. Morales? counterpart in Venezuela, socialist strongman Hugo Chavez, blamed a downpour that washed away some shanty towns in his utopia on ?capitalism,? too. Their supposed solution: world socialism.
Californias western Sierra Nevada had more frequent fires between 800 and 1300 than at any time in the past 3,000 years, according to a new study led by Thomas W. Swetnam, director of UAs Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research.
The Large Hadron Collider (LHC) currently awaiting to be turned on at CERN in Geneva will not destroy the Earth. But it can destroy our world : by detecting definitive evidence for so-called dark matter.
Charade: Michael Mann again pretends to be an "involuntary public figure'; Posturing for defamation lawsuit
This is an example of gestures that are either weakly or strongly endorsed by roughly 50% of Czechs. I partly agree with the spirit of the letter long-time TRF readers probably know where I would disagree, too.
13c. How well do ocean models deal with oceanic convection
Hans von Storch talking on the article in the Technologist of two groups he says are extremists. One group he calls the alarm lard, the other skeptics (he lgger not the same sense of the word skeptic as I go, because I see a skeptic as one who evaluated ifrgasttande and critical review of the scientific sense).
Indeed, it's singular "I" this time. After certain career developments I can no longer use the papal plural.
As you have surely heard, the Yellowstone Caldera ... the place where Old Faithful and the Geyser Basin reside ... has been undergoing increased activity including some earthquakes and a rising up of the land. Is this a big problem? Should the evacuate? Should those of us living only a few states away start wearing earplugs?
Miller, M., Ghate, V., Zahn, R., (2012) The Radiation Budget of the West African Sahel 1 and its Controls: A Perspective from
In my opinion, the safest and most expeditious way to remove this hazard is the open burn plan with perimeter monitoring. The EPA has failed to make this case. I suppose they dont like having their decisions questioned.
By why is it so important not to admit that the planet has cooled, at least to the public? I must confess that this question has puzzled me, or did until the media and climate panel.
I attended these events on the Mall that weekend and found them to be a wonderful antidote to the green hype of Live Earth and, in truth, a better example of true conservation and simple living then the giant rock concerts were. They were a sort of anti-rock festival, with informal singing and craftsmanship taking precedence. And for bizarre reasons, the Folklife Festival itself has itself actually come under attack from the greens. I will share my impressions and get into the controversy later. In the meantime, back to Gore's lies.
offers a valuable perspective that will be useful particularly for undergraduate courses in earth and atmospheric sciences. Students without a strong grounding in mathematics and physics will find this straightforward account quite approachable and welcome. International Journal of Climatology
The engine that connects some pieces of information (e.g. ones about the initial state) with some others (e.g. those about the final state) is completely different in classical theories and in quantum theories. But the information is ultimately the very same thing. We make a measurement and we learn some information from that procedure. Information is whatever distinguishes one's state of ignorance (or knowing less) from the state of knowledge (or knowing more). In general classes of situations, information may be quantified, too. But there's no point in trying to decompose the words "information" or "know" to words that are more elementary. There are no words that would be more elementary. One must understand at least some words if she wants to be able to say anything about anything. Attempts to "define" words like "know" inevitably end as a ludicrous worse-than-circular game that "decomposes" simple enough words into words that are much more complex, contrived, or subtle or several of these adjectives at the same moment.
Editorial: Good News Swept Under Rug on Earth Day
The big story this week is that Rachendra Pachauri has resigned from the IPCC, over a sexual harassment scandal . I will have an in depth post IPCC in Transition sometime next week.
Parson Al winning the Nobel Peace Prize was as predictable as his Oscar for Best Documentary, and represents the final debasement of a once-prestigious award. It used to be that the award went to people of genuine humanitarian or diplomatic accomplishment, like Mother Teresa, Albert Schweitzer or Doctors Without Borders. Now it goes to frauds and poseurs like Rigoberta Menchu, Yassir Arafat, the U.N. (three times now, counting Gore's co-winner, the U.N.'s climate change panel), and Jimmy Carter. About the only way to top this would be to give the next Peace Prize to Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton. More likely the Nobel committee will, one of these days, simply pat itself on the back and give the award to . . . themselves.
Set alternately to Mozarts Requiem and blasts of Metallica, Expedition is like a stoned camping trip to an unimaginably distant location, where your companions are a group of brilliant intellectuals, artists and scientists. No underlying premise for the mission is ever spelled out, nor is the provenance of the antique vessel ever discussed. As for the mind-altering substance on this voyage, its not weed or LSD although the movie does not show us everything that happens on shipboard at night but the extraordinary setting, a pristine Arctic landscape of sea, land, ice and sky so isolated that it has never been mapped or explored. Climate change has opened the fjords of Greenlands northeastern coast to marine traffic for the first time in recorded history, and the members of the Danish expedition were among the first human beings to enter them in thousands of years.
According to GlobalData, coal was the leading source of power generation in India last year, with 160 GW, accounting for 59 per cent of installed capacity, and this is expected to almost double by 2025.
In addition, Kerry offers a predictable mix of measures to require energy conservation and efficiency, such as higher CAF standards for automobiles. Kerry would also require increased use of renewable energy. Subsidies for rural America are not neglected: "We can capture emissions reductions opportunities in forests, rangelands, and farmland by providing financial incentive for no-till agriculture and maintaining and increasing natural carbon "sinks' such as forests and rangelands."
The same story of dramatic progress in reducing emissions "continues in 2008," as EPA tells us on its Web site.
As President-Elect Trump has quipped, "It used to be that cars were made in Flint, and you couldn't drink the water in Mexico. Now our cars are made in Mexico, and you can't drink the water in Flint."
So nothing can be done until the entire planet is united in a full-throated chorus of kumbayas, crying out to stop the scourge of man-made global warming? Interesting. Because I'm pretty sure history shows that such unanimity has never occurred on any major issue and somehow people still get things done.
The University of Alabama-Huntsville (UAH) Land-only TLT trend is +0.3 F/decade.
The first astronauts of most nations of the world, including the most capitalist nations, are usually paid by their governments from taxpayers' money.
In 2006 he was described as the ?Greenpeace Co-ordinator and scenario analyst? in a Greenpeace report produced in conjunction with the European Photovoltaic Industry Association (a solar power lobby group).
Location Uncertainty	horizontal +/- 13.2 km (8.2 miles); depth +/- 0.5 km (0.3 miles)
Like spring, bipartisanship is busting out all over. Even more so maybe: Washington in a time of alleged global warming is suffering through a chilly, wet springtime, but bipartisanship is sprouting up like gangbusters.
TSA Agent Caught With Passenger's iPad in His Pants; Allegedly Took $50,000 in Other Goods, Cops Say:
Virgin Islands AG Claude Walker recently withdrew his subpoena of Exxon Mobil. He was a leader among the 17 AGs charging that the oil giant defrauded shareholders by hiding the truth about global warming. That's hard to prove when the company's climate-change research was published in peer-reviewed journals.
Recent events have sent the fortunes of ethanol producers skyrocketing, as ethanol fuel has come back with a subsidy-powered roar. In a speech on April 25, 2006, President George W. Bush, known to abstain from drinking the stuff, was nearly rhapsodic about ethanol as fuel:
The Earth Guardians ignore all of this, and claim hydraulic fracturing is poisoning our air and water.
5. The word "asbestos" today has a dangerous connotation. Yet you credit asbestos with saving hundreds of thousands of lives. Why?
Put oil firm chiefs on trial, says leading climate change scientist
Nevertheless, what is useful about the heat content data is that it is relatively easy to then calculate from the yearly changes in ocean heat content how much of an energy imbalance (energy flow rate into the ocean) is required to achieve such changes.
ecosystems, and the polar regions) and need to be considered in developing scientifically based strategies for societal response to climate change.
What an amazing time we live in. From 100 years ago s survived the roughly one billion of people on earth, and it was hard to f food to rcka to all. Today we are 7 billion and it is produced food so that it would rcka to all. Certainly is not rttvist frdelad, s to p some HLL are there many who svlter while on the second is the alltfr many who become verviktiga, but the important thing is that today produced the food that would rcka to the 7 billion living today.
Fr jmvikt with the surface layer must is why the tergende reaction rate being 0.02 / r. And in order to receive jmvikt between the surface layer and deep seas in skdningsexemplet msteifrgavarande rate constants to be equal, let us stta them to the 0.0002 / r dvsett couple of orders of magnitude lngsammare n those at sea level.
knows what works and does not, knows the Congress well from his time there,
"After failing to get climate-change legislation through Congress, the Obama administration plans on pushing through its environmental policies through other means, and Republicans are ready to put up a fight."
Above: NANSEN Artic ROOS- Sea ice extent 15% or greater click for larger image
Their summary report states: "Moving beyond the "all of the above' energy approach in the 2012 platform, the 2016 platform draft re-frames the urgency of climate change as a central challenge of our time, already impacting American communities and calling for generating 50% clean electricity within the next 10 years."
Washington, D.C., April 4, 2003The Competitive Enterprise Institute and 17 other public policy groups have sent a joint letter Energy and Natural Resources Committee Chairman Pete Domenici (R-NM) on the harmful climate policies contained in energy legislation his committee will soon be considering. The current draft bill would create a White House climate czar and an expanded bureaucracy to promote global warming alarmism, require a counterproductive greenhouse gas emissions strategy, and grow a big business lobby for rationing by awarding early action credits.
Let's not lose sight of what the Doran poll asked:
Vast stands of densely packed, water- and nutrient-starved trees skinny matchsticks waiting for a spark are far too common in our Western states, because land mis-managers refuse to thin the trees.
How will this guy behave if he ever faces REAL danger?
Who Turned on the Heat? was introduced in the blog post Everything You Ever Wanted to Know about El Nio and La Nia Well Just about Everything. The Updated Free Preview includes the Table of Contents; the Introduction; the beginning of Section 1, with the cartoon-like illustrations; the discussion About the Cover; and the Closing.
Curiously, Simpson's recent introduction of this new "mirror man" seemed to generate little attention. This could be a product of our hashtag attention span; a side effect of a world concentrating its seriousness on solving (with hashtag activism?) the grave political and economic difficulties currently in play. Or it could have something to do with the fact that, this time around, Simpson's announcement was perhaps a little bit aprs le fait, and that the habits and attitudes he attributes to this dubiously-named person (softened a little, to be sure) sound remarkably like those of our cubicle mate, our next-door (apartment) neighbor, perhaps even ourselves. Surely, this exaggerated clich is not Us.
"We are going to shout a wake-up call," said Rucker, "loud and clear. People need to know just how radical and destructive the agenda that's being promoted for Rio+20 would actually be."
Volkswagen bought koda in 1991 and it's widely appreciated as the most successful example of the post-Velvet-Revolution privatization of a large company in Czechoslovakia. Under Volkswagen's leadership, koda immediately got access to state-of-the-art technologies. For many years, kodas were meant to be cheaper siblings of their more perfect and expensive brothers with the VW logo.
But it is the president's last-minute dash to sign a climate-change treaty that is most disturbing. It was barely two weeks ago that talks broke down at the U.N.-sponsored climate-change negotiations in The Hague, capital of the Netherlands. The issue was the means by which industrial nations would be allowed to cut their greenhouse emissionsparticularly carbon dioxideto meet goals set at a similar conference in Kyoto in 1997. Under the protocol, negotiated by Vice President Al Gore, the United States would have had to cut its emissions by 7 percent from 1990 levels by 2012.
Kevin, Seems that this potential Nature paper may be worth citing, if it does
We need jobs and renewed economic vitality. We all want a clean environment. Since the first Earth Day in 1970, industries of all kinds have made tremendous progress in reducing emissions and improving safety, efficiency and sustainability. They will doubtless continue to make further progress.
The proper question to ask is: Should we seek to stop change or should we improve our abilities to adapt to an ever-changing world? America and the world will certainly face catastrophic risks in the future; whether these will be climatic, tectonic, biological, or political is unclear. Since we cannot be sure which risks will prove dominant, we ought to improve our generic ability to survive and recover from whatever dangers the future may hold. Rather than herd America s entrepreneurs, inventors, and workers into some elite s politically-correct industrial policy scheme, we should remove political impediments to production, market-driven innovation, and rapid adaptation.
In other words, we should worry about the risks of climate change; we should worry about the risks of geoengineering; and we should apply our most meticulous and careful scientific thought to characterizing these risks. But we should not considerindeed we should remain utterly unaware ofthe risks of forcing wealthier people to stop using, and preventing poorer people from starting to use, the fossil-fuel energy that played a leading and essential role in the vast improvements in human health, prosperity, and life expectancy during the last hundred years.
Evaporation is relatively constant from year to year as is seepage, so the formula can be written as:
This hardly deals with the nonsense predictor problem. The question is whether a proxy (as arguably bristlecones) are affected by an unrelated trend or by long persistence. Low AR1-coefficient red noise behaves a lot like white noise in that the effects attenuate quickly ("short memory"). The Mannian null test is irrelevant. The null test described here was described in MBH98 (not in Mann et al 2005 as far as I can tell).
(As an aside, philosopher of science Karl Popper has written, in The Logic of Scientific Discovery (p. 281):
The most dramatic changes in atmospheric circulation during the Holocene noted in the Antarctic are the abrupt weakening of the southern circumpolar westerlies 5200 years ago and intensification of the westerlies and the deepening of the Amundsen Sea Low starting 12001000 years ago.
It is also surprising how much time some folks put into this stuff. One guy wandered through a particular set of photo albums online and did face matches. How many families did they have to go through to find that one?
Deese apparently also didn't define what he means by an "important" agreement. The Paris Agreement is clearly at the high end of the scale. Indeed, it aims to mobilize trillions of dollars in "climate finance" (green foreign aid) over the next 15 years, and commit all nations to restructure their energy policies, markets, and infrastructure.
Physics, i.e. the real world and real-world reactions, occur in real-time. Reality doesnt wait around for an average of something to build up and then decide to act reality acts as time flows by, each infinitesimal moment to the next. Reality reacts to instantaneous flux, not the average flux because there is no average that reality waits around for to react to.
lot of areas, there probably never will be a single universally superior model
Glassman: I have read articles in the New York Times and elsewhere about the observation of some icebreakers saying, "Wow, there doesn't seem to be as much ice up here . . . "
Great Iran Flood, 1954. A storm over Iran produced flooding rains resulting in approximately 10,000 casualties.
Republicans need to present attractive policies that address future needs. Good policy, more than ideological positioning, is the key to political success.
Let us be realistic: We will not do it all by 2014 ssom we did with the climate and energy package in 2009, says Jos Delbeke
Tens of millions of forests would be preserved because of fewer wildfires.
And that is perhaps why the people who do best in politics so often think like artists rather than like intellectuals: not in terms of clear categories and sharp distinctions, but in terms of new patterns, arrangements and possibilities. For them, the new is never purely new; the old never entirely discarded.
https://www.aei.org/publication/president-obamas-clean-power-plan-all-cost-no-benefit/
Yet the warnings persist. Why? I'm going to repeat what I said, along with my old colleague Howard Fienberg, back in 2001, when there was near panic around Halloween thanks to the events of a few weeks earlier:
Is this an example of Jim Hansen's endorsed "civil disobedience"?
What I am saying is that any, and I mean any, attempt to explain barbarous and murderous behaviour by others on Western democracies is just a variant of the middle-class guilt that alleges that we are destroying the planet by having healthy and wealthy lives.
Help me with something, dear readers. UK retail gas prices are going up by 20% , apparently because of a hike in wholesale prices caused by turmoil in Libya and demand in Asia. Yet when I look at this chart of US prices, I see no sign of any recent hike worth the mentioning.
If, however, one does not believe that Kyoto is a good deal for America, then the consistent position is to oppose subjecting the U.S. to the Law of the Sea Treaty. It is utterly inconsistent to be both opposed to Kyoto and in favor of LOST as written.
Would You Trust A Doctor Who Got Kickbacks To Prescribe Your Drugs?
"It is imperative that these misdeeds be stopped as soon as possible, so that America and the world can get on with the critically important business of finding effective ways to restabilize the Earth's climate, before even more lasting damage is done."