Michaelyya/contrarian-claims huggingface dataset:
The Ehrlichs favor junking the EPA in favor of a Federal Environmental Authority modeled after the political independence and power of the Federal Reserveprecisely because the Fed is "insulated from day-to-day politics." In other words, the Ehrlichs make clear that they understand that their agenda of governmentally imposed "constraint" (their term) would not succeed in a genuine democracy. The Limits to Growth team is a little more realistic that "a world of strict, centralized government control" of the environment is not possible, but they still indulge in some wishful thinking about how the world should be changed:
Ryssdal contrasted Brands earlier support for the back to the land movement with his current belief that big cities are better for the environment.
Obama has always favored putting a price on carbon a carbon tax as the most efficient way to achieve his goal of reducing emissions that he believes threaten life on the planet. I am not as certain as the president and his environmental supporters, and so-called emerging countries, whose beliefs on this front might just be affected by the piles of cash they want transferred to them from the likes of us, that we are at such great and immediate risk. After all, basing policy on the predictive ability of models did not ensure the enduring health of the financial system. But neither can we be certain that the climate change believers are wrong, especially when they worry that if we go forward with this sensible policy, our domestic manufacturers will be at a further cost disadvantage to Chinese exporters. Besides, here is an opportunity to replace growth-stifling taxes on work and risk-taking with a tax on pollution at a time when oil and gasoline prices are so low that a modest increase in the tax on fossil fuels would hardly be noticed.
that EPA's justification for their Endangerment Finding would "very likely" have been considerably less compelling.
I know that record this and that is what the Weather Channel is all aboutbut Sierra takes a look at the evidence.
EPA Challenged for Funding Anti-Highway Groups
Abu Dhabi Summit to Catalyse Global Support for Enhanced Environmental Decision Making in Emerging Economies:
Energy supply has been a major player in world events since the start of World War II. German expansion was auned toward the East, with the objective of gaining control over U. S. S. R. Caucasus oil resources. In June 1941, the United States, Britain, and the Netherlands embargoed oil to Japan because of aggression against China. Japan had a 1-year oil supply and had the choice of giving in to these nations' demands or securing oil sources in Southeast Asia. The result was the December 7 attack on Pearl Harbor, simultaneous attacks on the Philippines and British Malaya, followed by attacks on the Dutch East Indies. Within months, Japan had secured its oil resources and a brutal war left millions dead.
Although free allocations and revenue recycling can ameliorate the impacts of cap-and-trade on some industries, communities, or income groups, "the cost of bringing emissions down to the levels required by the caps cannot be avoided."
The first person to recognize this, to my knowledge, was John Maynard Keynes is his gorgeous, but now little read, A Treatise on Probability , a book which argued that all probability statements were statements of logic To Keynesand to usall probability is conditional; you cannot have a probability of A, but you can have a probability of A with respect to certain evidence. Change the evidence and change the probability of A. Stating a probability of A unconditional on any evidence disconnects that statement from reality, so to speak.
And if you check, AMAP has been consistently reminding its reports readers about the preliminary nature of any suggestion of a link between pollution and sex ratios in humans, at least since 2006 .
Ive lowered the price of Who Turned on the Heat? from U.S.$8.00 to U.S.$5.00. A free preview in pdf format is here . The preview includes the Table of Contents, the Introduction, the first half of section 1 (which was provided complete in the post here ), a discussion of the cover, and the Closing. Take a run through the Table of Contents. It is a very-detailed and well-illustrated bookusing data from the real world, not models of a virtual world. Who Turned on the Heat? is only available in pdf formatand will only be available in that format. Click here to purchase a copy. Thanks. (I also am very happy to receive tips or donations .)
Undertaking independent efforts to more accurately determine the severity of climate change and verify U.N. claims. The lack of warming in recent years is raising fundamental questions about the underlying assumptions of climate-change predictions. Undertaking actions with grave implications for the U.S. economy without greater confidence is irresponsible.
"I just look at what the climate scientists tell me," said McCarthy.
A directive took effect this week ordering wind farms with a capacity of 10 megawatts or more to forecast their generation in 15-minute blocks for the following day.
And that, by and large, is where the media left the matter. Left largely unexamined was the information that had been covered up. What was it that the White House did not want us to know? And what was the pointless "pablum" that Christie Whitman refused to dignify with publication? Driven by the immediacy of the daily news cycle, TV and newspaper reporters asked the question, but did not answer it, falling back instead on the easy assertions of advocates: If the report was so damning that it had to be suppressed, it must have shown that human-induced global warming is certainly happening.
People who use science to inform their decisions on matters such as cancer prevention, climate change, and food safety know about the hierarchy of reliability. There are "facts" in press releases, newspaper articles, and blog entries, which tend to be less trustworthy than, say, information in reports from Britain 's Royal Society or the U.S. National Institutes of Health. But if a report appears in a peer-reviewed journal, where articles are examined by independent experts before being published, it elicits instant and widespread respect all round.
Providing some background for their study, Winkler et al. (2015) note the coral reproductive season "coincides with the season most likely to experience thermal stress," but they report that "many tropical coral species are already near upper thermal limits," citing Fitt et al. (2001). So do these two facts pose a serious dilemma for tropical corals?
In summary what turned out to be one of climate sciences most embarrassing blunders, was also one Schellnhubers most certain and very easy to calculate scenarios.
We also get temperature information from (non-thermometer) "proxy" data. And while all of these methods present specific problems and have limitations, let's review what we can learn.
As we can see, there is no climate signal in the statistics for wheat production in China unless we want to say that its increasing productivity is the consequence of climate change. This calls for closer inspection of the argument
In 1928, while lamerica march to the crash on Wall Street, Joseph Stalin reveals his most important project will be conquered by the Nature Science, Russia will become brutally, luccicantemente modern and the World will be transformed dallimpegno communist.
In sum, Hickenlooper, like Obama, is intent on imposing climate policies over the will of the people. When it next convenes, the legislature should call out the governor over this heavy-handed power grab.
Whether tropical or northern forests store more carbon might ultimately be academic, though, when it comes to mitigating climate change. Stephens believes that "relying on trees to mitigate climate change is not a good long-term strategy, because the carbon they store gets returned to the atmosphere on a timescale of around 30 years when they die and decompose.
Figure 1. Homogenization adjustments made by GISS to the Anchorage, Alaska urban temperature record (red stepped line, left scale) and Anchorage population (orange curve, right scale)
There is much wisdom in the old "early to bed, early to rise" adage. But that's not what the Environment Ministry has in mind. They see going to bed early as a way to fight global warming.
Spain's Solar Deals on Edge of Bankruptcy as Subsidies Founder:
As discussed in the July 18 and July 25 TWTWs, the 2014 annual report of the state-owned electricity and natural gas distribution company in Denmark states that, by 2020, the electricity capacity of power plants, including wind and solar, and import capacity will be about 3 times expected maximum consumption. As discussed in the August 8 TWTW, the need for reliable back-up for unreliable solar and wind is a major reason why Denmark and Germany have the highest electricity costs to consumers in Europe and that the relation between non-hydro renewables and consumer costs of electricity is strong and positive the greater the percentage of renewables in the mix, the higher the costs to households.
In 2013 Senators Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and Bernie Sanders (I-VT) proposed a carbon tax in their Climate Security Act of 2013. The tax started at $20 per metric ton and would rise by 5.6 percent per year, reaching $50 per metric ton by 2030 (the endpoint for the Heritage analysis).
At this point, the individual firm is forced to ask whether its gains from current production are sufficient to justify the heavy damages that it must pay to others. Often that answer is no, so that the firm will then voluntarily cut back on its emissions to minimize the sum of three variables: the cost of pollution, the cost of pollution prevention, and the administrative costs of making these calculations. If the costs of pollution are correctly set, the firm will make the right social decision on its own initiative.
People were saying the same things 60 years ago, but unlike Markey they actually knew what they were talking about..
By focussing such a lopsided meticulous detail to the claimed (side) effects of speculation as the underlying agency of human technological and social advance, environmentalism is able to shirk away from applying any meaningful analysis to that speculative process as its causative object. In comparison, environmentalisms understanding of what it insists upon being the lethal obstacle to any liveable future is notably crude (even in and perhaps, especially in its attempts at cod-psychology), infantile, and alluded to with such a dismissive and self-betraying lack of objectivity that the response itself becomes a highly significant inclusion in our understanding of the debate (if we are to have any hope of resolving it).
The explanation for the convex abatement cost penalty curve is as follows. With a high level of participation the least cost abatement options are used first. However, if there is less participation, some low cost options are not available, so higher cost options have to be used to achieve the same emissions reductions. Figure 1 shows the ratio by which the abatement cost would increase for less than full participation. For example, at 50% participation, the cost penalty would be a factor of 3.5 (i.e. 250%) higher than with full participation (ref. A Question of Balance , Ch VI, pp. 116-122 ).
So why does NIWA bother stretching the temperature record over this wasteland of missing and unreliable data, when all seven stations are isolated islands? What purpose is served by the extra decades? A time series commencing in 1930 would offer 70 years more than sufficient to fine-tune the computer models.
But wait, it gets better. It turns out that this program has already come in for some criticism on the intertubes. The brave truth-tellers over at Dissident Voice have decided that instead of being a misleading greenie scam run, quite inappropriately, by an agency of the U.S. government, it's actually part of a decade-spanning right-wing conspiracy to privatize all federal lands. Wait, what?
The following statements from legal and environment policy experts at The Heartland Institute may be used with attribution. For more comments, refer to the contact information below.
A number of climate-change metrics have become less alarming over time, ranging from global temperature to hurricanes. Climate models (including that of Hansen at NASAs Goddard Institute) have demonstrably overestimated climate sensitivity to greenhouse gas. But rather than hedge his bets and show humility toward the very complex system he is trying to model, Hansen has called for oil industry executives to be prosecuted and for civil disobedience at coal facilities.
The US House of Representatives Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming has been having hearings on Climategate and more particularly the Oxburgh report. In the words of the committee's web page.
KINGSTON, Jamaica, Nov. 2.The results of calm investigation have proved conclusively that so far from being exaggerated the first reports of the destruction wrought by the cyclone at St. Vincent were rather short of the actual facts. The island was literally swept absolutely bare of vegetation, the experience of 1780 being repeated , but the full extent of the devastation was not at first realized, owing to the difficulty of communication through the destruction of the roads and the coastal shipping.
States should refuse to comply with the Clean Power Plan. Elected officials, presidential candidates and citizen groups should speak out loudly, clearly and often and begin curbing the excessive power and representation of extreme environmentalists and bureaucrats in our government.
While there are many factors driving offshoring, lower wages give countries like China and Mexico a competitive advantage. Energy costs, however, give the U.S. an advantage as "manufacturers need a lot of energy to make their processes work," stated Gary Marmo, director of sales for New Jersey's Elizabethtown Gas. He says: "A typical office building will use 5,000, 10,000, 20,000 therms a year. A good sized manufacturing plant will probably use that same amount in just a couple of days." Electricity frequently represents one of the top operating costs for energy intensive industries such as plastics, metals, chemicals, and pharmaceuticalsand, according to a recent study comparing costs in the U.S. and China, electricity is about 50 percent higher in China.
Christopher Essex on fluid dynamics, climate models and media climate activism
diplomatic jiu-jitsu or the moral authority of the other guy looking like a
Obviously, I agree with the last sentence. It seems that this point, while "easy to see" for Gerd and me, is not widely accepted and, as noted above, showing RE statistics for some classic nonsense regressors like the Yule 1926 example will be worthwhile to illustrate the pitfalls of relying exclusively on this measure. They go on:
aware of any explanation for greater variabilityamong Patriots balls compared to Colts balls?
It may be that the station is affected by heated water discharge from the power plant and the sewage plant into the river. Being on that spit of land it has water on three sides.
The car park asphalt at 6 meters away puts the station rating at CRN4, based on NOAAs site quality rating system used for their Climate Reference Network. Ive found that the vast majority of historical stations in the USA have been affected this way:
Rather than focus on security or economics, President Obama's landmark announcement was a climate pact with China. He pledged to reduce America's carbon emissions by 26 per cent to 28 per cent below 2005 levels, while China promised to cap its emissions "around 2030".
Lugo, Ariel E. "Estimating Reductions in the Diversity of Tropical Forest Species," Biodiversity. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press, 1988.
My lovely wife is snapping photos already, as it has just started. Heres a sample.
By telling the US that itslifebloodmust be purged, people like James Hansen and John Kerry are pointing a shotgun at Americans heads and asking them to pull the trigger. In order to accomplish this, two generations of brainwashing were required to destroy all self-respect for about 51% of the population.
Often precipitation projections from different models are blended together and averaged, as if adding up a cluster of failures will somehow produce accurate results.
In some of the instances where DDT was alleged to have killed birds, other factors from excess hunting to mercury poisoning were more likely the real culprits. Further, the bird population would often increase in areas spread with DDT as there were fewer insects to spread bird diseases. Ironically, today the mosquito-borne West Nile virus is killing many of the birds including robins, condors, eagles and peregrine falcons alleged to have been harmed by DDT. Yet greens still oppose most spraying programs that use any type of pesticide to fend off mosquitoes.
Mr Hammond told the BBC that he wanted to look at the government's long-term strategy on dealing with the UK's winters.
Dead or Alive? According to some commentators, Kyoto is already dead. The Senate won't ratify the Protocol until it is amended to include developing countries, the treaty can't be amended until it enters into force, but it can't enter into force until the Senate ratifies it. Therefore, they conclude, COP-4 was a gigantic exercise in futility.
Konstantin Vinnikov, a senior research scientist at the University of Maryland at College Park, said he expected climate change to have only a minor effect on future scorchers. These are events that have happened in the past and will happen in the future. Climate trends related to climate change cannot change it too much, Vinnikov said.
challenges like economic growth or climate change: They should share similar
Pederson set up the climate and media panel so there were no skeptics on board because he is a dedicated, one might even say fanatical, believer in human-caused global warming and its catastrophic outcome. How do I know? Because last December, I attended a video streaming, arranged by Pederson in a University of Victoria classroom, of an online debate pitting skeptics Bjorn Lomborg and Nigel Lawson against warmists Elizabeth May and George Monbiot.
Since people are asking us to bet billions on this dataset, we need more than a well, its kinda like the other datasets that contain known errors to justify their calculations. NASA is not doing the job we are paying them to do. Why should citizen scientists like myself have to dig out these oddities? The adjustments for each station should be published and graphed. Every single change in the data should be explained and justified. The computer code should be published and verified.
Did Senate President Rosenberg's climate forum bring down the full frozen wrath of the "Al Gore effect" and shut down Boston?
NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory. Mauna Loa CO2 data downloaded on February 27, 2013 from Wood for Trees.
JC comment: The bottom line seems to be that SCC is being established as a surrogate for a National Carbon Tax. My reaction to all this is that it seems like the uncertainty in SCC is colossal, I am not convinced that we should even have confidence in the sign of the SCC in light of the SPPI and WSJ analyses. And the White House is presenting values of SCC with two significant figures? Uncertain T. Monster is not pleased. There has been no attempt to propagate uncertainty through the FUND, DICE and PAGE models, not to mention whatever front end assumptions about carbon and climate are being used as inputs.
In the beautiful Kalmar was organized on 11 and 12 May for the eighth consecutive year, the National Wind Power Conference of Regionfrbundet Kalmar Ln, Ntverket from Wind Mill Energy Agency. In other words, a state and municipal cooperation from the frmja wind power. Mr. mts government and nringslivet for informing about news, discuss the future and create contacts between different aktrer. To the participants in most cases was frlsta vindkraftsfresprkare kndes as sjlvklart d arrangrerna has the specific task that the transposition of the Government ml of more wind power. Mattias Goldmann was the moderator for the entire conference, and he set the tone of vckelsemte by telling fr audience how immensely populra they were, 75% of all Swedes like you. Keynote speakers Tomas Kberger who interjected that the participants were not only populra but also important.
But that's what green activists and a whole industry of environmental corporate auditors are counting on. If firms' estimates somehow don't jibe with what is determined to be the "right" number, they could be fined or browbeaten until they capitulate to what the agencies and activists want.
Obama Targets GOP States With Costly CO2 Regulations
Negative thermometers ARE sh**. 100% sh**. I shouldnt even need to say it to make it so. If the math results in negative thermometers, then something is wrong with the math.
An even larger number of entitiescould be swept into the CAATitle V operating permits program,which definesas major any sourcewith a potential to emit100 TPY of a CAA-regulated pollutant. Title V permits typically do not impose new obligations on sources,because the programs purposeis tofacilitate compliance with other CAA provisions. Butmost of theentitiespotentially subject to Title V for CO 2 haveno other CAA obligations.They would befilling out pointless paperwork. And for their pains, theyd also have to payemission fees (the going rate is $43.30 per ton) for every ton of CO 2 in excess of 100 tons.
Earth is Safe from Global Warming say the Men who put a Man on the Moon
Ward: "the old journalism 101 thing about balance" is creating a problem in the coverage of climate change. "Balance in some cases can be the enemy of accuracy "
Often, decisions are made by people (ls politicians) who do not really are familiar with these frgors complexity, writes the BDA frfattarna. Decisions innebr often an improvement from a point of view, but can tyvrr f far vrre consequences No other aspects are analyzed. () An example of where the overall consistency can really discussed is the EU's decision to frbjuda usual gldtrdslampor. () The problem is that the lgenergilamporna contains mercury, a fact that many do not even knner to.
U.S. Energy Information Administration, "Petroleum & Other Liquids: Effects of Removing Restrictions on U.S. Crude Oil Exports," September 1, 2015, http://www.eia.gov/analysis/requests/crude-exports/ (accessed July 1, 2016). See also U.S. Energy Information Administration, "Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2015," September 2015, https://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/assumptions/pdf/introduction.pdf (accessed July 22, 2016): "Estimated ultimate recovery per shale gas, tight gas, and tight oil well is 50% higher and well spacing is 50% closer (or the number of wells left to be drilled is 100% higher) than in the Reference case. In addition, tight oil resources are added to reflect new plays or the expansion of known tight oil plays, and the estimated ultimate recovery for tight and shale wells increases by 1% per year more than the annual increase in the Reference case to reflect additional technology improvements. Also includes kerogen development; and undiscovered resources in the lower 48 offshore and Alaska, and shale gas and coalbed resources in Canada that are 50% higher than in the Reference case."
The primary cosmic ray particles interact with the atmosphere and generate secondaries, some of which will reach the surface of the Earth.
Provision of a small handful of public works such as roads, bridges, the dredging of harbors, and the like. Except for a few other limited and narrow activities, in Adam Smiths view all other matters should be left up to the choices and decisions of individuals, either on their own or in voluntary association with others in society.