Michaelyya/contrarian-claims huggingface dataset:
The discussion is far from over. The true mind of science remains open to new data and alternative explanations. Whether and how much of the approximately 1/2 degree C of warming which occurred in the latter half of the 20th century is due to human industry has not been conclusively established. Neither have any of the incredibly expensive "solutions" proposed to address any global warming been shown to be meaningfully effective or worth their tremendous cost.
NASA's James Hansen claims extreme weather events would not have happened if CO2 had remained at its pre-industrial level of 280 parts per million
Figure 1. Lake Baikal paleoclimate record from the past 800,000 years. Warmer conditions are towards the right, cooler ones towards the left (from Mackay, 2007).
Nuccitellis answer to this unexceptionable and temperately-expressed statement is that sea level rises chiefly through thermal expansion and melting land ice, so it is all our fault. However, it ought to have been obvious even to Nuccitelli thermal expansion and land-ice melt happen whether Man or nature is the cause.
It makes you wonder what created all that CO2 millions of years ago.
The EPAs Greenhouse Gas Inventory acknowledged this year that methane emissions from natural gas production have fallen 35% since 2007. Thats despite a 22% increase in gas production over the same period. The EPA last year found that methane emissions from hydraulically fractured gas wells had fallen 73% from 2011 to 2013. Overall methane emissions are 17% lower than in 1990.
?Lukewarmers? are those scientists (and others) who believe the balance of evidence is middling between ?climate alarmists? (who tend to think that the global temperature rise will lie in, or even exceed, the upper half the IPCC?s 1.1 C?6.4 C range of projected temperature rise this century) and ultraskeptics, or ?flatliners? (who tend to think that the addition of human-generated carbon dioxide has virtually no impact on global temperatures).
So, given the past trend, and the strength of the theory underlying the theory of AGW, warming is likely to resume. When this occurs, the central tendencies for all data sets should turn positive.
To the north, a recent earthquake along the Arctic Mid-Ocean Rift System released a 1,000-mile-long pulse of methane into the overlying ocean. Remote-sensing NASA satellites measured this gas release once it vertically escaped through the ocean into the atmosphere. This massive gas release is compelling evidence that known Deep Ocean hydrothermal vents along this segment of the rift have become active.
The Kyoto Protocol, even if implemented by all industrialized countries, including the United States, would only barely slow the increase in GHG concentrations.Actually reducing GHG concentrations below todays levels (~385 ppm) may well exceed human capability in this century. Even outright de-industrialization of the United States might not be enough to lower GHG levels, since most emissions growth in the 21st century is projected to occur in developing countries .
When its all said and done, the power plant will supply 3,000 homes with heating and 1,000 of those with electricity, cutting 6,600 tons of CO2 per year
Is it possible That the widely-used CRUT SST temperature data sets HAS BEEN understating Recent warming? In dont knowIm mystified. Maybe Frank, Chelle, Phil Jones, or some enterprising bloggers out there can figure this one out.Ive got to go hang some plywood.
When confronted with the fiery question of where evidence lies of an impact that only occurred some 12,800 years ago, barely time for a deep breath geologically, the Younger Dryas Impact proponents respond with an extremely weak mumbling about air blasts, asteroid clusters and ice sheet impacts that left no evidence of a large chunk(s) of space debris hitting the Earth. They point out that the Tunguska Impact (called an impact even though it left no crater) was an air-blast at an altitude of 3-6 miles (5-10 km) above Siberia that yielded the equivalent of 3-30 megatons of TNT in explosive force. The skeptics counter with Meteor Crater in Arizona, a beautiful little 1,200 ft (4,000 m) diameter hole 570 ft (170 m) deep made by a meteorite a mere 54 yds (50 m) in diameter that released 10 megatons of energy upon impact. They reasonably expect that a piece or pieces of space debris able to spread ejecta over half of the northern hemisphere, cause a 1,300 year halt in global warming and lead to the extinction of numerous species that had survived for hundreds of thousands of years had to leave some evidence of its arrival behind. The YD proponents then countered with the fact that the northern half of North America was covered with ice sheets and an impact on a 1 to 2 mile thick layer of ice may have mitigated the expected formation of a crater.
UAH monitor temperatures from 60N to 85N in the Arctic, and 60S to 85S in the Antarctic. While not complete, these records, of course, go much closer to the poles, and in a much more comprehensive fashion, than surface temperatures do. Figure 1 shows the UAH data, which is the anomaly from the 1981-2010 baseline, as a 12 month running average. This helps to smooth out the monthly and seasonal fluctuations and make the trend much clearer to see.
Man-made global warming? No. Mann-made global warming? Yes.
According to the Centre's scientists, "As the world warms, on average, it is getting wetter rainfall, on average, is increasing." They also added, "Contrary to widespread expectations, potential evaporation from the soil and land-based water bodies like lakes is decreasing in most places. This is because the world is cloudier than it used to be."
Melting of polar ice sheets has added 11mm to global sea levels over the past two decades, according to the most definitive assessment so far.
The serious money has always flowed to alarmists, guilt-ridden environmentalists, and control-seeking regulators, whom the world's taxpayers are generously and unwittingly funding. That's also the real meaning of the "Green" movement and "Green" energy.
Well, a year later, we have an interesting opposite scenario with a deep arctic low bringing snow to the arctic and Greenland in late July.
British economist Sir Nicholas Stern recently made international headlines with a report claiming the debate is over on climate change and predicting dire economic effects. But on the heels of that report came a scathing article in London's Sunday Telegraph by renowned journalist Christopher Monckton that debunks this so-called scientific consensus. He notes that the United Nation's main report on global warming purposely censored data about a Medieval Warm Period that saw global temperatures 3 degrees Celsius warmer than now. He further states that the famous hockey stick graph, which allegedly shows a major recent spike, has been thoroughly discredited. Apparently, there's little harmony in Britain over this continuing controversy.
"Many skeptics have had their doubts about the climate data championed by the IPCC and the CRU, but one of them, Canadian Steve McIntyre a retired mathematician and policy analyst, decided to do something about it."Kenneth P. Green
The Golden State already has some expensive GHG reduction requirements. For example, the California Air Resources Board predicts its carbon dioxide limits for new automobiles will add $1,000 to the cost of a car. Californians must get 20 percent of their electricity from renewable sources by 2017, raising the costs of power production. If approved, the Governor's "million solar roofs" program will stick the state's electricity ratepayers with a surcharge to subsidize solar electricity systems.
Unfortunately, the article is just the latest in a very long line of examples of ABCs climate groupthink, where the utterances of climate scientists are beyond reproach and questioning of the consensus is frowned upon.That is not how science works: the motto, which the ABC, our taxpayer-funded and supposedly impartial national broadcaster, would do well to remember, is question everything.
Mr. Lazear has fallen for the greatest lie ever; the assertion that greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide, are warming the Earth. The hoaxers are calling the past seventeen years "a pause" in warming, but it is actually an indicator that the Earth is on the cusp of the next ice age. The period in between ice ages is calculated at 11,500 years and we are at the end of the current interglacial period.
Yes, as Climate Hustle makes clear, there are dissenting scientistsbut they are marginalized, even called "kooks." If they speak out, they are insulted, ignored, ridiculed, ostracized, called heretics, hurt professionally, and even terminated for divergent views. This is not the scientific method.
During Boston's record-breaking snowfall this past winter, officials used large empty parking lots that were devoted for one thing: snow piles. Officials called them "snow farms" and they rose to heights unseen in modern history. And now, in the sweltering heat of summer, one is still sitting in South Boston , dripping away and revealing a vast wasteland of trash underneath. When WBZ (CBS News) Boston went to check on the man-made glacier, what they found in that still-melting pile of snow was a bit of a shocker: a baby stroller, lottery tickets, part of a bicycle, laundry baskets, hubcaps, and more.
Why didnt CRU use this dataset in Briffa et al 2013 instead of the inadequately replicated dataset that it reported on? Did CRU attempt to obtain access to this data and receive a rejection? And why didnt CRU report the existence of Shiyatovs crossdated dataset in its review of previous work at Polar Urals?
The ocean absorbs one-third of the worlds carbon dioxide emissions, Ms. Jordan said, explaining that it upsets the food chain. When you turn on your car, it affects them.
Met Office Predicted A Warm Winter. Cheers Guys
In this policy analysis, Donn Dears writes that the fear of climate change has led the United Nations and European Union to insist that the United States cut its carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 80% so that worldwide emissions can be cut by around 50%, thereby limiting the level of CO2 in the atmosphere to a level some scientists believe will keep climate change in check. Congress is considering a cap & trade program for CO2 emissions rather than carbon taxes for achieving the required 80% reduction. The Presidential candidates all endorse cap & trade as a remedy to combat global warming.
Emission Scenarios & Recent Global Warming Projections
Here is a formidable source of data on climate change, courtesy of prof. Lindzen (MIT) from a CEI presentation a couple of weeks ago. Once more, he reminds us that many statements bandied about and accepted as gospel truths are in fact serious distortions and sometimes outright contrary even to authorities such as the IPCC.
Given the myriad scientific holes in the manmade global warming hypothesis and allowing for the inevitable future discoveries about climate, it seems quite absurd for Congress to proceed on global warming as if, in Al Gore's words, "There is no longer any serious debate over the basic points that make up the consensus on global warming."
Ethanol and Greenhouse Gas Emissions. Though ethanol is often pitched as a good solution to climate change because it simply recirculates carbon in the atmosphere, there is more than one kind of greenhouse gas to consider. Ethanol, blended with gasoline, actually turns out to increase the formation of potent greenhouse gases more than gasoline does by itself. As far back as 1997, the U.S. Government Accountability Office determined that the ethanol production process produces
In response, CEI filed a Freedom of Information Act request seeking documents related to the video, its production at taxpayer expense, and OSTP's rejection of its correction request. Despite having earlier claimed that the video was just Holdren's personal opinion, not the agency's, OSTP withheld portions of emails about it as privileged "agency records." It also refused to produce drafts of its letter rejecting CEI's request for correction. It withheld two drafts even though they had been shared with an outside professor (and initially even concealed their very existence), even though sharing a document with someone outside an agency usually waives any privilege to keep it secret.
Steve McIntyre?s latest post at Climate Audit includes the extraordinary revelation that Michael Mann?s latest submission to the courts regarding his libel suit includes a doctored quote. The offending words purport to be an excerpt from the Russell inquiry report, but, demonstrating a startling disregard for the court, the excerpt has been altered to make it look as if Mann had been exonerated by Russell. However, this has been done so badly as to make the alteration fairly obvious.
Warming is not the only sign of change we are observing in Australias climate. Other changes include a marked decline in rainfall in the south-west and parts of south-east Australia, and recent reductions in rainfall through the eastern states. At the same time, rainfall in the arid interior and north-west has increased dramatically, in some places nearly doubling during the past 50 years.
Now, the average of this system, the whole atmosphere and surface included together, is what should have the global average temperature of -18 degrees C, and it does, because the temperature goes from warm (+15 degrees C) at the bottom of the atmosphere, to cold (-70 degrees C) at the top of the atmosphere, and measured from space it is -18 degrees C on average. The bottom of the atmosphere is warmest because that is where the Sun does the real-time physical heating in the first place. The temperature decreases with altitude because the heat dissipates outwards from the ground and cools down, and also because of the natural adiabatic gradient. The amount of water vapour in the air-column reduces the adiabatic gradient and it also reduces night-time cooling, because of latent heat which is trapped and then released by the H2O molecules. -And to be sure, those H2O molecules wouldnt be able to get into the air-column if sunshine was freezing cold at -18 degrees C!- Finally, the natural existence of the adiabatic gradient (that is, the fact that the air has to cool with altitude), means that the bottom of the atmosphere must be warmer than top and therefore the bottom must also be warmer than the average. If the average has to be -18 degrees C, then this average has to be found between the bottom (warmest) and the top (coldest), and the bottom will naturally be warmer than that average. Its all totally sensible when you do the physics correctly, and no greenhouse effect is needed to be invented.
Similarly, those who have, at one time or another, actually had a fire hose in their hands, breathed smoke up their nostrils, felt the enormous radiant heat of fire in long unburnt fuel, heard the roar, and felt the ground shake as a bushfire goes its merry way, may be perturbed at statements by some studious ecologists, apparently supported by statistical evidence, that deliberate, mild burning in cooler weather, to mitigate uncontrollable holocaust bushfires in hot, windy weather, is ineffectual, and harmful to the bush.
In addition the professor said: ?Ending human population growth is almost certainly a necessary (but not sufficient) condition for preventing catastrophic global climate change. Indeed, significantly reducing current human numbers (emphasis added) may be necessary in order to do so.?
Between 2000 and 2005, drought conditions (combined with greatly increased water usage in Arizona, California, Nevada and Colorado) caused Lake Powell levels to drop nearly 120 feet. This prompted a considerable consensus of global warming hysteria.
Former Energy Department official and CAP Senior Fellow Joseph Romm suggests that recent 90-degree weather in Minnesota could have critically weakened the bridge, causing it to collapse. Even if Mr. Romm were correct about global warming contributing to the failure of critical infrastructure, this leads us to an even more pressing question: who built all the freeway overpasses in Phoenix? What about the parking structures at McCarran Airport? Wither the above ground facilities at Groom Lake? If several days of summer weather in the mid-90s can cause a massive steel and concrete structure to collapse, somebody better send a memo the those crazy architects in Dubai.
It should also be noted that, if the Carbon Plans are followed through, demand for electricity will increase as transport and domestic heating are decarbonised. The Committee on Climate Change have estimated that demand could increase by 30% by 2030 as a result. This would push peak demand up to 80GW. With an appropriate safety margin, we would then be looking at, say, 90GW.
Thats odd. The paper thats the subject of the press release doesnt come to the conclusion that global warming is causing the migratory practices of the studied sea birds.
It seems they found out what the environmental changes taking place in the south. are.
Higher emissions from China and other big emerging economies, plus the failure of rich countries to slash emissions, could pump greenhouse gases to levels which scientists say augur a dangerous rise in average global temperatures by more than 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 F).
John A. Simpson, at the University of Chicago, invented and developed the neutron monitor over the years 1948-50 and found that the Earths magnetic field could be used as a spectrometer to allow measurements of the cosmic ray spectrum down to low primary energies. The magnetic latitude of a particular neutron monitor determines the lowest magnetic rigidity of a primary that can reach the monitor, the so-called cut-off rigidity. The stations altitude determines the amount of absorbing atmosphere above the station and hence the amount of absorption of the secondary cosmic rays (the higher the station, the higher the counting rate). By using a combination of lead (to produce local interactions), paraffin or polyethylene (to moderate or slow down the neutron component) and multiple slow-neutron counters, Simpson greatly increased the counting rate in his monitor design.
Are climate scientists doom-mongering? Bulk of research on impacts of ocean acidification is FLAWED, new study finds
It's remarkable that she doesn't even dare to consider the correct explanation - namely one that the data she has collected are actually real rather than sequences of errors of measurements or results of a world-wide conspiracy. Men are statistically better physicists, better physics teachers, better actors, and - yes - better judges of the quality of their teachers, too - and her research is just another way to see that it is so.
14. Will global warming produce a rise in sea level and cause major flooding?
Reality may be a bit simpler, or much more complicated. But the reason this is all so important is that if there is no good explanation for the lack of warming, then an increasingly viable alternative is that we have overestimated the gross sensitivity of temperature to carbon dioxide in our computer models.
And they really like a carbon dioxide-rich diet...
A new study suggests that a high-fat diet increases a woman's risk of developing breast cancer.
Constructor theory: Deutsch and Marletto are just vacuously bulliting
The environmental movement has become a cesspool of hate, where hack journalists and bureaucrats can openly fantasize about violently punishing their political adversaries, and where scientists compromised by a poisonous ideology lie and steal to discredit their intellectual opponents.
Of relevance to the previous thread on epistemology of disagreement, it seems that Morano et al. have taken the IPCC strategy of consensus and letters to Congress and turned it around on the IPCC with dissent and a large number of signatories that seem credible, at least on the surface, in terms of academic qualifications etc. Morano is a very clever politician, he is attempting to beat the IPCC at their own game.
* Unlike, say, concentrated solar power produced by BrightSource Energy, which California utilities are forced to purchase in order to comply with a Soviet-style green energy production quota enacted by the state legislature.
Nonetheless, it is refreshing to see the much-needed start of amovement away from the top-down IPCC approach of assessingrisks to key resources, which, as we have shown in our papers and in my weblog posts, is a fundamentally flawed approach.
The claim that 20-30% of the Earths species are at risk of extinction has been a hallmark of Pachauris speeches . . . depends almost entirely on a single, highly questionable piece of research. . . five out of 10 of this chapters most senior personnel have a formal documented link to the World Wildlife Fund. There is no way to know which sections of this IPCC chapter represent the opinions of scientists whove jumped into bed with the WWF and which sections are . . . scientifically sound.
Let's review. The Obama administration is perpetuating a pernicious legal double standard with regard to federal wildlife laws. It prosecutes industries that produce "dirty" energy and exempts those that claim to produce "clean" energy. Furthermore, it's giving the wind industry a get-out-of-jail-free card so that if it kills some of our most-endangered species, such as the California condor, it will not face prosecution. The wind industry is further expanding its operations onto public land in both California and Wyoming. And the American Wind Energy Association has recently said that its main goal is to obtain a multi-year extension of the production tax credit, the lucrative subsidy that was extended for one year back in January. In other words, despite some two decades of subsidies, the wind lobby claims it still needs public money to be viable.
where H.is the heat content of the land-ocean-atmosphere system . Equation 1-1 describes the change in the heat content where f is the radiative forcing at the tropopause, T is the change in surface temperature in response to a change in heat content, and is the climate feedback parameter (Schneider and Dickinson, 1974), also known as the climate sensitivity parameter, which denotes the rate at which the climate system returns the added forcing to space as infrared radiation or as reflected solar radiation (by changes in clouds, ice and snow, etc.).?
Under this heading, were back to discussing the Rest-of-the-World sea surface temperature data with its trend intact. A preliminary note: It is not by coincidence that global sea surface temperatures warm in response to an El Nio. The coupled ocean-atmosphere processes that cause this have been known for decades.
That it was fairly good for preventing colds I knew, but now apparently garlic is the way to prevent global warming.
The Solomon Island / New Guinea heating source point is fixed / non-moving. Fixed heating source points are associated with fixed geological features such as volcanoes, and not with ever moving atmospheric heat sources. If atmospheric global warming caused the warmed Pacific Ocean seawater as NASA contends, it would not occur in the exact same location for 15 years. Atmospheric and ocean currents are too variable and strong to have deposited this massive heat pulse in the exact same location for 15 years.
Many climate scientists and environmentalists agree with Morano's description of climate complexity, but reject his denials of global warming as a problem.
The most precise records of global temperature began in 1979, when continuous satellite observations started recording temperatures at different heights in the atmosphere. The globally averaged temperatures, derived from the satellites and balloons, of the layer of the atmosphere from the surface to a height of a few kilometers do not show the increasing warming trend over the last twenty years expected by the computer model projections of the effects of added CO2 in the air (see Figure 2).
Only 100 Degrees Of Warming Needed To Start The Greenland Meltdown
No matter how governments make energy more expensive, it's poor people who are hurt the most.
2) While temperatures have increased in the Arctic since 1980, there have been similar decreases in the Antarctic.