Michaelyya/contrarian-claims huggingface dataset:
As for records of sea-level change, tide-gauge measurements indicate no acceleration in sea-level rise in the 20th century.24 Records of sea level, based on precise measurements made by the TOPEX/POSEIDON satellites, show a small trend of 2 mm per year in sea-level rise from 1993 to 1997.25 These measurements imply that if greenhouse gases continue to rise and the global temperature increases as much as the computer simulations say, the estimated rise in sea level over the next 100 years will be less than one foot.
Sea levels, after allowing for rising/falling land surfaces, have risen over the last 30 years by between 62mm at North Shields, in the North East, and 48mm in Newlyn in the South West. In other words about 6 to 8 inches per century, and about the same rate it has been rising at since the late 19thC.
Dr Kench says the growth of the islands can keep pace with rising sea levels.
If we take Rahmstorfs 1993 2006 period value of 3.3 mm/year, then we see that sea level rise has actuallyslowed down by 3%, and not risen 60%. The tricks being used by alarmist climate scientists are becoming ever more obvious anddesperate.
Almost all of the apparent rise in sea level is due to land subsidence, not sea level rise. The rate of rise on the East Coast is at least 10X higher than on the West Coast because the land isnt sinking on the West Coast.
A new paper by White et al , concludes that Australian sea level rises are similar to global measurements (so not a bad proxy for the world), and that during times when CO2 levels were much lower ??? like before World War II, sea levels were rising at the same speed (or possibly faster) than they are today.
Tide gauge data show that sea level is rising somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 mm/year. If a short person stood on the beach motionless for one thousand to three thousand years, they might be in danger of drowning.
14. Pachauri said that he had seen for himself the damage done in Bangladesh by sea-level rise. Just one problem with that. There has been no sea-level rise in Bangladesh. At all. In fact, according to Professor Moerner, who visited it recently and was the only scientist on the trip to calibrate his GPS altimeter properly by taking readings at two elevations at least 10 meters apart, sea level in Bangladesh has actually fallen a little, which is why satellite images show 70,000 sq. km more land area there than 30 years ago. Pachauri may well have seen some coastal erosion: but that was caused by the imprudent removal of nine-tenths of the mangroves in the Sunderban archipelago to make way for shrimp-farms.
(Never mind that sea level hasnt risen an inch in California during the past century.)
Funny that the sea level record shows no acceleration of sea level rise , despite attempts to show otherwise.
Right to survive: The rights of some Parties to survive are threatened by the adverse impacts of climate change, including sea level rise. At 2 inches per century? Oh, come off it! The Jason 2 satellite shows that sea-level has dropped over the past three years.
What the graph demonstrates is that heavy rainfall spikes have occurred in the past, and they are not exclusive to our present with m ore CO2. h/t to reader Crosspatch for this link.
Environment & Energy reports on the Nature paper we highlighted 2 weeks ago finding no increase of climate variability over the past 50 years . According to the authors, "Our findings contradict the view that a warming world will automatically be one of more overall climatic variation" and "Evidence from Greenland ice cores shows that year-to-year temperature variability was probably higher in some past cold periods." Furthermore, the paper finds, "Many climate models predict that total variability will ultimately decrease under high greenhouse gas concentrations..." The paper corroborates other peer-reviewed papers , the IPCC SREX Report , and the Congressional testimony of Dr. Roger Pielke, Jr. & Dr. John Christy finding no evidence of any increase of extreme weather or climate variability with global warming.
CO2 Science Although climate alarmists continue to claim the world will experience more extreme weather as the planet warms, this study clearly suggests -- as the three researchers who conducted it conclude -- that, in China, global warming may actually imply "a possible reduction of hail occurrence."
There continues to be little evidence that the recent increase in storminess over the UK is related to man-made climate change.
Those fearing catastrophic global warming often point to increased drought as one of the scariest scenarios of climate change. But new research at Princeton University indicates there has actually been little change in drought over the past 60 years, and that the index frequently used to predict drought trends has led to inaccurate findings. The study, published in the journal Nature, points out the so-called Palmer Drought Severity Index is too simplistic in its assessment of precipitation and temperature, with one researcher saying it makes it seem as though it will never rain again. It appears these doubts about drought are drying up yet more climate alarmism.
Compared with the likely benefits to both human health and food production from CO2-induced global warming, the possible disadvantages from, say, a slight increase in either the frequency or the intensity of extreme weather events is very small beer. It is, in fact, still uncertain whether there is any impact on extreme weather events as a result of warming (increased carbon emissions, which have certainly occurred, cannot on their own affect the weather: it is only warming which might). The unusual persistence of heavy rainfall over the UK during February, which led to considerable flooding, is believed by the scientists to have been caused by the wayward behaviour of the jetstream; and there is no credible scientific theory that links this behaviour to the fact that the earth's surface is some 0.8C warmer than it was 150 years ago.
8. The decade of the 2000s, with the highest atmospheric CO2 levels ever, failed to produce any noteworthy temperature records but one, and severe weather records plummeted from the pace established during 1990s
The last days with >15mm were in 2008, and neither exceeded 18mm. Contrast this with other years on record, when such days were more frequent, and much more intense. For instance, January 1961, which holds the record of 27.37mm, or the winter of 1979/80 when there were four days of more than 15mm.
The 1930s also had the most daily record maximum temperatures.
More inconvenient results for Al Gore and the mouthpiece of ???Forecast the Facts?? Brad Johnson who like to claim that tropical storms will increase due to global warming.
Emanuel implies other parts of the world do show ???upward metrics??? Which ones? The Global Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index is falling.
1. Between 1954 and 2012, there has been a downward trend in the frequency of strong to violent tornadoes in the US, and that decline is statistically significant at the 1% level (see red line in chart). On average, there has been a decline of almost 0.40 violent tornadoes every year since 1954, or a decline of almost 4 violent tornadoes every decade.
Despite what you might have heard about ???extreme weather events,?? damage and loss of life from twisters is in retreat.
One hundred degree days occur about half as often as they did in the 19th century, and the hottest summer Greg experienced was his very first one, in 1954.
The unusually quiet 2013 fire season continued a long-term trend in declining wildfires. From 1962 through 1982, for example, at least 100,000 wildfires occurred in the United States every year. Since 1982, however, not a single year has registered 100,000 wildfires. During the past decade, an average of 73,000 wildfires occurred each year. During the 1970s, by contrast, an average of 155,000 wildfires occurred each year.
At the conference, I presented the same original research that I recently gave at the American Meteorological Society conference in New Orleans. I serve on the Probability and Statistics Committee of the AMS. This work was based on a paper I wrote and is about to appear in the Journal of Climate that shows that the number of tropical storms and hurricanes have not increased in number or intensity since we have had reliable satellite measurements. I also find that previous crude statistical methods others have used to analyze hurricanes have given misleading results.
But , far more serious were the droughts in the zones to the North and South. In the Sahel between 200,000 and 400,000 died in the drought of 1972-73.
Death Valley : The summer of 1917 had 43 consecutive days with a high temperature of 120 F or above.
A new paper findsPacific cyclone activity is currently at the lowest levels of the past 5,000 years, debunking alarmist claims that Typhoon Haiyan was caused by man
Ryan Maue : A year ago, I walked into a Tallahassee Borders and snapped an IPhone photo (thats my thumb) of Al Gores new book cover and marveled at the locations of hurricanes in a globally warmed future. The book was released at the tail end of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season, which uncorked one of the quietest years on record . With Copenhagen, Cancun, and the hottest year ever come and gone, you would think that global climate disruption was spinning up cyclones with reckless abandon. Remember, after Katrina in 2005, scientists published alarming papers linking increases in hurricane activity worldwide to global warming. Fast forward 5-years: the inconvenient truth is that aside from the Atlantic basin , global tropical cyclone or hurricane activity during 2010 has tanked to the lowest levels in decades .
The past 4 years have seen 51 total landfalling hurricanes, also on the low end -- the least is 41 (1978-1981) and the most is 80 (four periods, most recently 2004-2007).
Despite warnings from those concerned about global warming, the 2006 hurricane season passed largely without incident. This points out, according to David Ridenour of the National Center for Public Policy Research, the continuing difficulties surrounding climate science. Comments Ridenour: ???The number of hurricanes was 38 percent below the number originally forecast by our government. And the number of hurricanes that qualified as ???major?? fell 50 percent below those forecasts. If we can??t depend on hurricane forecasts made six months ahead of time, how can we expect to depend on predictions about the behavior of hurricanes decades from now. Sadly much of our climate science seems to be more based on politic science.??
In a region of the globe where climate models predict the effects of CO 2 -induced global warming to be most evident, the past quarter-century has seen no change in the number of fall (June-November) storms.
Got that? In no US region is there strong statistical evidence for flood magnitudes increasing with increasing CO2. This is precisely the opposite of the conclusion expressed in the draft report, which relies on Hirsch and Ryberg (2011) to express the opposite conclusion.
Despite this strong evidence for a warming planet, greenhouse gas forcing fails to explain the 2010 heat wave over western Russia. The natural process of atmospheric blocking, and the climate impacts induced by such blocking, are the principal cause for this heat wave. It is not known whether, or to what exent, greenhouse gas emissions may affect the frequency or intensity of blocking during summer. It is important to note that observations reveal no trend in a daily frequency of July blocking over the period since 1948, nor is there an appreciable trend in the absolute values of upper tropospheric summertime heights over western Russia for the period since 1900.
I find this kind of analysis totally unconvincing, and it does not recognize the role of natural internal variability such as the Arctic Oscillation, La Nina, etc in producing floods. None of the recent floods are extreme in historical context.
Active Tornado Seasons, Big Outbreaks and Stronger tornadoes Have been Shown to Be Associated With La Ninas and Natural Variability in the Pacific
Consider who the skeptics are that Trenberth is referring to. This quote was supposedly in response to a group of scientists who contend that the link between global warming and hurricanes is thus far weak and undetectable. These skeptics lay out their case in a soon-to-be-published article in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS) entitled Hurricanes and global warming. The skeptics who wrote the article are: Roger Pielke, Jr., a leading researcher on risk and loss association with severe storms and hurricanes; Christopher Landsea, a leading researcher on hurricanes and climate; Kerry Emanuel, a leading hurricane modeler; Max Mayfield, the head of the National Hurricane Center; Jim Laver, head of the Climate Prediction Center; and Richard Pasch, a hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center. According to Pielke Jr., the papers lead author, the purpose of the paper was to provide a concise, largely non-technical, scientifically rigorous, globally inclusive, and interdisciplinary perspective on the state of current understandings of hurricanes and global warming that is explicitly discussed in the context of policy.
Woodhouse and Lukas?? streamflow reconstructions indicated, in their words, that ???the 20th century gage record does not fully represent the range of streamflow characteristics seen in the prior two to five centuries.?? Of greatest significance, in this regard, was probably the fact that ???multi-year drought events more severe than the 1950s drought have occurred,?? and that ???the greatest frequency of extreme low flow events occurred in the 19th century,?? with a ???clustering of extreme event years in the 1840s and 1850s.??
So what to expect in 2009? Well, the last Northern Hemisphere storm was Typhoon Dolphin in middle December of 2008, and no ACE has been recorded so far. The Southern Hemisphere is below normal by just about any definition of storm activity (unless you have access to the Elias sports bureau statistic creativity department), and the season is quickly running out. With La Nina-like conditions in the Pacific, a persistence forecast of below average global cyclone activity seems like a very good bet. Now if only the Dow Jones index didn??t correlate so well with the Global ACE lately??
During the period 1900-1940, when most of the 20th century's one-degree Fahrenheit temperature increase occurred, there were 7 years of moderate-to-severe drought.
Twenty-seven climate scientists concluded decadal variations in the number of U.S. heat and cold waves do not correlate that closely with the warming observed over the United States. The drought years of the 1930s had the most heat waves, while the 1980s had the highest number of cold waves. 7
The exact opposite is true. Heatwaves have become much less common in the US, and their duration has become much shorter.
In 1933, the US was hit by two major hurricanes a week apart. CO2 was wellbelowHansens safe level of 350 PPM at the time.
Yet another article has appeared in a leading journal of this subject. The piece is by Chunzai Wang and Sang-Ki Lee of NOAAs Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory in Miami and the Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies at the University of Miami; the research was funded by NOAA. The begin their article noting the 2005 hurricane season is the most active year on record, with 28 named tropical storms in the Atlantic basin and 15 of them reaching hurricane intensity. The recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity has fueled a debate on the role of global warming in the increase. (Theres the d-word again that we thought wasnt used anymore!). The last sentence of Wang and Lees first paragraph tips the world off that this piece is not headed to the top of the hurricane alarmists lists. This paper uses observational data to demonstrate that the attribution of the recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity to global warming is premature and that global warming may decrease the likelihood of hurricanes making landfall in the United States.
Since Obama took office, the US has averaged 0.6 hurricane landfalls per year. This is the fewest hurricanes of any president since at least 1850. By contrast, Grover Clevelands presidency averaged more than five times as many hurricanes per year as Obamas.
Media hype calls the latest cyclone to hit Pacific island of Vanuatu worst in history. But actual scientific evidence shows cyclones have not increased in energy nor is there any evidence of a higher frequency.
Recent analyses in changes in severe local weather (tornadoes, thunder days, lightning and hail) in a few selected regions provide no compelling evidence for widespread systematic long-term changes. (Source: IPCC, 2001, TAR-02-2, Chapt. 2.7.4., Summary, S.163-164).
" claims that 2004 set an all-time record for the number of tornadoes in the United States. Tornado frequency has not increased; rather, the detection of smaller tornadoes has increased. If we consider the tornadoes that have been detectable for many decades (F-3 or greater), there is actually a downward trend since 1950."
This year had the fewest tornadoes on record in the US, and the second fewest number of severe tornadoes, with seventeen. Only 1987 had fewer severe tornadoes, with fifteen.
Wealthier, more technologically advanced societies are better able to anticipate, withstand, and recover from climate change, extreme weather events, and other natural disasters. There is no evidence that extreme weather events are becoming more frequent or severe in this century.30 But let s assume for the sake of argument that rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide will warm the planet in ways that increase the number and intensity of severe storms. What type of insurance policy would offer the most protection under such circumstances?
In summary, there continues to be a lack of evidence and thus low confidence regarding the sign of trend in the magnitude and/or frequency of floods on a global scale
First things first the title is wrong. We have presented many essays recently showing that hurricane activity is not increasing in terms of frequency and intensity or that any increase is simply a return to what was commonly observed decades or centuries ago. When we were writing about hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, or Gulf of Mexico (or even the Northeast Pacific), our use of the term hurricane was correct. These severe tropical storms appear in many other parts of the world, and when they occur over the Northwest Pacific Ocean and west of the International Date Line, they are called typhoons. Hurricanes near Australia and in the Indian Ocean are sometimes called Willy-Willies by the locals. However, in the scientific community, hurricanes, typhoons, and Willy-Willies are all called tropical cyclones.
As EPA's own data show, despite allegedly "unprecedented" warming, U.S. air quality has improved decade-by-decade since 1970 as emissions declined. The report blames climate change for the Midwest drought of 2012. But the government's own analysis concluded otherwise: "Neither ocean states nor human-induced climate change, factors that can provide long-lead predictability, appeared to play significant roles in causing severe rainfall deficits over the major corn producing regions of central Great Plains." The Assessment ignores substantial data and research finding no long-term increase in the strength and frequency of tropical cyclones and no trend in extreme weather-related damages once losses are "normalized' (adjusted for changes in population, wealth, and consumer price index).
Lin & Chan, 2015, a study published in Nature Communications, finds that the destructive potential of tropical cyclones (???typhoons??) in the most active and hazardous tropical cyclone basin on Earth, the Western North Pacific Main Development Region, decreased by 35% over the past decade.Lin and Chan use a metric called the Power Dissipation Index (PDI) to measure the destructive potential of Asia-Pacific typhoons. The PDI is a product of three factors: storm frequency, duration, and intensity. In the past decade, typhoon intensity increased due to increases in ocean heat content. However, typhoon frequency and duration decreased due to stronger vertical wind shear and lower vorticity in the storm genesis region. The declines in frequency and duration overpowered the increase in intensity, producing a net decrease in PDI of approximately 35%.Based on climate modeling studies, Lin and Chan project that global warming will induce an additional 15% decrease in the Asia-Pacific PDI. In their words, ???Although both the intensity and duration increased under global warming, there was an even larger typhoon frequency reduction of 25.7%. As a result, the typhoon PDI decreased by 15.2%.??
The current drought was very unusual in the speed of its onset, with PDSI (Palmer Drought Severity Index) dropping from slightly wet to severe drought in just five months. In the Illinois Division 1 instrumental record, this has occurred only once before, in 1936. But the droughts current severity has been matched or exceeded on numerous occasions in the past, according to both the instrumental and tree-ring records. ?
Global hurricane activity as measured by the ACE index has been in general decline since the early 1990s andas of 2011was near its 40-year low. Source: Maue, R.N., 2011: Recent historically low global tropical cyclone activity. Geophysical Research Letters , 38, L14803, doi:10.1029/2011GL047711
So far, the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season is comparable to 2006 and 2007, much weaker than in 2005, the year that made it so tempting to abuse tropical storms for dirty left-wing politics by emitting foggy hypotheses about SUV-hurricane links.
Dr. Roger Pielke, Jr. has authored an excellent essay in yesterdays Wall Street Journal that put the kibosh on the new normal meme seen here . As Pielke clearly shows, hurricanes like Sandy are not the new normal and the data tells us the USA is in a hurricane drought.
As for hurricanes, like Irene, the skeptical scientists report that storm frequency does not track with global temperature fluctuations and they add that historical trends show that storms were worse during the Medieval period of about 9501250 AD.
Over the period 1944-1996, decreasing trends were found for (1) the total number of hurricanes, (2) the number of intense hurricanes, (3) the annual number of hurricane days, (4) the maximum attained wind speed of all hurricane storms averaged over the course of a year, and (5) the highest wind speed associated with the strongest hurricane recorded in each year. In addition, the authors report that the total number of Atlantic hurricanes making landfall in the United States has decreased over an extended 1899-1996 time period, and that normalized trends in hurricane damage in the United States between 1925 and 1996 reveal such damage to be decreasing at a rate of 728 million dollars per decade. What it means
The first problem they have is that the comparisons are absurd. The Dust Bowl saw muchlongerlasting and more extensive droughts. Compare 2012 to 1934 below.
An interesting aspect of the season was its early start, with two tropical storms, Alberto and Beryl, developing in May before the season officially began. Also, this is the seventh consecutive year that no major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5) have hit the United States. The only major hurricane this season was Hurricane Michael, a Category 3 storm that stayed over the open Atlantic.
Florida has not been hit by any hurricane for seven years, the longest such period on record.
Hurricanes have not increased in the United States in frequency, intensity, or normalized damage since at least 1900. Currently, the U.S. is enjoying a period of over eight years without a Category 3 or stronger hurricane making landfall. Government data also indicate no association between use of fossil fuels and tornado activity.