Quite Possibly the Best of 2015

Rating: 9/10 (17 January 2016)

During a manned mission to Mars, Astronaut Mark Watney is presumed dead after a fierce storm and left behind by his crew. But Watney has survived and finds himself stranded and alone on the hostile planet. With only meager supplies, he must draw upon his ingenuity, wit and spirit to subsist and find a way to signal to Earth that he is alive.
Although at this point I have only seen three of the eight Best Picture nominees, I feel confident in saying that "The Martian" deserves to win. Although Ridley Scott is not nominated for Best Director (odd considering this is his best film in a long time or possibly ever), and the only acting nomination is for Matt Damon (who will likely lose to Leonardo DiCaprio)... this movie nails it on the story alone.
By all means, this can win in the Best Adapted Screenplay category, as well. No, I have not read the original book so I do not know what Drew Goddard put into it. And no, I have not seen all the other nominees yet. I suspect "Big Short" is also an excellent script. But again, this film succeeds based on two things: incredible suspense and a strong script. Is all the science strictly accurate? No. Apparently some key things, such as the "fierce storm", are not correct. But we believe it. Everyone speaks as though they know what they say, and unlike "Star Wars" (or even "Star Trek") this is clearly based on reality.
In recent years, it seems that a space movie somehow sneaks into the top Academy nominees. After "Gravity" and "Interstellar", we have this. And I dare say they are getting better. "Gravity" was a good exploration of visuals, but not a deep film. "Interstellar" took everything to the next level, even to the point of being a mind-bender. Here, I think we have the perfect balance: hard science and space danger. What could have been two hours of boring, bland scenes of a man in a desert end up being exciting and you can feel the desperation -- and more importantly the endless optimism and hope.
The bulk of the film's nominations are in production design, sound and other effects. These are well-deserved, and it may take home a few. Not being an expert, it is hard to judge sound editing. But this is the sort of movie where such a thing can make or break the picture. There will be some strong competition, but the designs of the NASA equipment are impressive and the sounds are excellent. The visual effects are a harder sell, with some of the low-gravity moments seeming a bit off somehow.
The takeaway: expect a win or two in the technical categories. Of the bigger awards, Damon is a contender for Best Actor but will not win. Best Adapted Screenplay ought to be a lock, and if it gets nothing else this is the film's strong suit. For my money, "The Martian" has Best Picture written all over it, but the experts are leaning more towards "The Revenant" or "Spotlight"... on that, we will have to agree to disagree.