Profits Improbable: A Likely Box Office Flop

Rating: 2/10 (8 August 2015)

The studio had high hopes for this live-action cartoon, as the last entry in the series was a bit of a financial disaster. I guess losses had to be recouped, some profit made and the franchise to be revived.
It doesn't appear this is working out.
As of today, MI has done $152 million in business, worldwide, in eight days of release. Sounds impressive until you consider the economics of mainstream, wide release Hollywood "blockbusters." Pictures of this type are expensive to produce, market, advertise and distribute. Marketing and advertising costs generally run at a figure that's 50% of the production expense, and then distribution and general business costs to support the film are also quite high.
The total cost of MI will be at least $255 million. As a studio's cut of the entire box office drop is roughly 2/3, MI will have to generate about $385 million in business in order to be in the black.
Usually, a film of this type does 45% of its business in the first week of release, and has a useful shelf life in public appeal that lasts about a month and a half. If MI follows this general model, it will do about $320 million in total box office, which means something like $215 million in return to the studio.
The Friday-to-Friday gross on this film is down 60% in its second week. This is hardly encouraging.
You do the math. A $45 million dollar loss is significant, an amount that would be difficult to offset in the aftermarket (DVDs, Blu-rays, secondary release, broadcast rights, etc.).
It is likely this will be the last Tom Cruise MI flick, as the franchise is apparently exhausted in terms of economic vitality, and his brand is obviously diminished.
This is not surprising. Only two franchise pictures have been profitable this year, the Avengers offering and the Jurassic entry. "Mad Max" didn't make back its investment yet, and the current Adam Sandler piece of dreck is destined to be a big money loser, just like his last half dozen films.
Perhaps the studios should start rethinking their strategies. Actioners, CGI extravaganzas and childish attempts at comedies are hardly worth the investment anymore. Time to move on, apparently, to something else. Novelty and producing essentially the same picture time and time again eventually leads to diminishing returns.