Patent ID: 7729932
Filing Date: 2010-06-01
Classification: G06Q

Abstract:
1. A computer readable storage medium encoded with a project assessment program for assessing a project comprising a plurality of processes when executed by a computer computing forecasts of said project based on a set of information, comprising: selecting at least one scheme by a user input from the group of schemes comprising of an estimation of frequency distribution, an estimation of mutual-correlation of estimated value pattern, an estimation of standard deviation, an estimation of time-series information, and an estimation of fit to a predetermined pattern; based on the at least one selected scheme, retrieving: process planning information of each process included in the project; up-to-date actual process information of said each process of the project, forecast model information of said each process of the project defined as probability distribution variations of a plurality of parameters of said processes, wherein the probability distribution variations are quantitative values of the project, computing estimated values of variations in at least two parameters of said processes using the process planning information, the up-to-date actual process information and the forecast model information, wherein the estimated values of variations are different from the probability distribution variations, wherein the estimated values of variations are computed using the probability distribution variations, the probability distribution variations are determined by using standard normalized random numbers computed by a Molo algorithm, assessing the project by determining one of either said estimated values of parameters of at least one process of the processes included in the project, or a comparison of said estimated values of variations to a predetermined criterion; wherein in the scheme of the estimation of mutual-correlation of estimated value pattern, a first process is selected from the processes of the project, estimated values of variations calculated for the first process are put into a sequence, one of estimated values of the variations is set as a first reference estimated value, and other estimated values of the variations of the first process are normalized based on the first reference estimated value so as to obtain a sequence X, a second process is selected from the processes of the project, estimated values of the variations calculated for the second process are put into a sequence, one of the estimated values of the variations is set as a second reference estimated value, and other estimated values of the variations of the second process are normalized based on the first reference estimated value so as to obtain a sequence Y, a mutual-correlation between the sequence X and the sequence Y is computed to assess how high the mutual-correlation therebetween is, thereby to find the estimated values of the variations by equation: wherein, ensemble averages of the sequences X and Y are defined as E(X) and E(Y), and square variances of the sequences X and Y are defined as V(X) and V(Y), respectively.