Patent ID: 7881994
Filing Date: 2011-02-01
Classification: G06Q

Abstract:
1. Machine readable media having stored therein a set of instructions that when executed cause a computer to implement a process for determining a probability of an adverse event in connection with a plurality of loans, the plurality of loans having varying amounts of loan data available, the process comprising: constructing a first mathematical model for use with loans for which loan data is available for a set of explanatory variables, the set of explanatory variables including variables that relate to risk characteristics of the loan, risk characteristics of collateral for the loan, and risk characteristics of a borrower associated with the loan; constructing a second mathematical model for use with loans for which at least some of the loan data for the set of explanatory variables is not available, including estimating the probability of the adverse event for a second group of loans using the second mathematical model, wherein at least some loan data for the set of explanatory variables is not available for the second group of loans, and wherein estimating the probability of the adverse event for the second group of loans includes randomly drawing error values from the set of error values and adjusting the outputs of the second mathematical model for the second group of loans in accordance with the randomly drawn error values, the randomly drawn error values causing a distribution of the probability values produced by the second mathematical model for the second group of loans to more closely match a distribution of the probability values produced by the first mathematical model for the first group of loans.