Patent ID: 6832205
Filing Date: 2004-12-14
Classification: G06Q

Abstract:
An automated system for predicting the timing and costs of future service events in a life cycle of a product formed from a plurality of compartments, comprising:a database that contains a plurality of service information and a plurality of performance information for the product; a statistical analyzer that automatically analyzes the plurality of service information to determine a plurality of compartment failure information comprising compartment failure variables and compartment time-to-failure coefficients, wherein the statistical analyzer uses the plurality of compartment failure information to determine which compartment failure variables influence the timing of future service events and estimate time-to-failure distributions for the plurality of compartments; a performance deterioration rate analyzer that automatically analyzes performance deterioration rate of the product from the plurality of service information and performance information, wherein the performance deterioration rate analyzer comprises a statistical analysis script that relates a subset of compartments of the product according to time, wherein the statistical analysis script generates an estimated deterioration rate curve for the subset of compartments of the product, wherein the performance deterioration rate analyzer further comprises a transformer that transforms each estimated deterioration rate curve for a compartment to a performance life distribution; and a simulator that automatically simulates a distribution of future service events in the life cycle of the product and predicts the costs of the service events according to the time-to-failure distributions and performance life distributions.