Patent ID: 6799154
Filing Date: 2004-09-28
Classification: G06F,G06Q

Abstract:
A system for predicting the timing of a future service event of a product formed from a plurality of compartments, comprising:a database that contains a plurality of service information and a plurality of performance information for the product; a statistical analyzer that analyzes the plurality of service information to determine a plurality of compartment failure information comprising compartment failure variables and compartment time-to-failure coefficients, wherein the stastistical analyzer uses the plurality of compartment failure information to determine which compartment failure variables influence the timing of future service events and estimate time-to-failure distributions for the plurality of compartments; a performance deterioration rate analyzer that analyzes performance deterioration rate of the product from the plurality of service information and performance information, wherein the performance deterioration rate analyzer comprises a statistical analysis script that relates performance information of a subset of compartments of the product according to time, wherein the statistical analysis script generates an estimated deterioration rate curve for the subset of compartments of the product, wherein the performance deterioration rate analyzer further comprises a transformer that transforms each estimated deterioration rate curve for a compartment to a performance life distribution; and a simulator for simulating a distribution of future service events of the product according to the time-to-failure distributions and performance life distributions plurality.