Patent ID: 7188084
Filing Date: 2007-03-06
Classification: G06Q

Abstract:
1. A method for managing a distressed loan portfolio using roll rates for a group of non-stationary asset-based loans utilizing a computer, the group of non-stationary asset-based loans included within the distressed loan portfolio, said method comprising the steps of: (a) predicting a payment behavior for a borrower of a non-stationary asset-based loan included within a distressed loan portfolio utilizing a collections model wherein the payment behavior includes whether the borrower will submit a timely payment and a payment amount relative to a contractual delinquency for the associated loan, wherein the collections model is based on historical payment information of the borrower and a plurality of collection strategies for collecting payment from the borrower, and wherein the non-stationary asset based loans include at least one of automobile loans, vehicle loans, and credit card loans; (b) initiating at least one of the plurality of collection strategies with respect to the borrower and the payment of the associated loan; (c) analyzing the borrower's payment behavior after initiating the at least one collection strategy; (d) comparing the borrower's payment behavior after initiating the at least one collection strategy to the predicted payment behavior of the borrower; (e) updating the collections model based on the borrower's payment behavior comparison; (f) calculating with a computer an amount generated and expenses incurred from repossessing a non-stationary asset used as collateral for the borrower's loan utilizing a re-marketing model, the re-marketing model further calculates a probability that an event will occur impacting payment of the borrower's loan; (g) generating delinquency moving matrices that include the borrower's loan to facilitate predicting roll rates; (h) predicting a roll rate into a next level of delinquency for the borrower and the associated loan using the updated collections model, the calculated amount generated and expenses incurred, and the calculated probability that an event will occur that is calculated by the re-marketing model; (i) repeating steps (a)–(h) for each loan included within the group of non-stationary asset-based loans; and (j) managing the loan portfolio by forecasting cash flow for the loan portfolio based on the predicted roll rate of each loan included within the group of non-stationary asset-based loans.