Patent ID: 6560541
Filing Date: 2003-05-06
Classification: G06F,G16H,Y10S

Abstract:
A computer-implemented method for determining an estimated risk R of serious gastrointestinal (GI) hospitalization of a patient taking non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, said method comprising the steps of:a) obtaining patient values of predictive factors x1, . . . , x5 wherein said predictive factors are age, baseline global health status, proportion of time taking prednisone, previous occurrence of a GI side effect and previous occurrence of GI hospitalization; b) calculating said estimated risk R from a model applied to said patient values, wherein said model is a Cox proportional hazard model that is based on longitudinal data, wherein said estimated risk R is calculated according to R=1âˆ’S(1)B, wherein: S(1) is a mean probability of not having a serious GI hospitalization within one year, and B=eA, A=Lâˆ’M, M=&Sum;i=15&it;â€ƒ&it;ai&it;mi,â€ƒ&it;and&it;â€ƒ&it;L=&Sum;i=15&it;â€ƒ&it;ai&it;xi,â€ƒwherein mi are a plurality of predetermined mean values of said predictive factors, and ai are a plurality of Cox coefficients, wherein S(1) is 0.99045, wherein said plurality of predetermined mean values are m1 is 56.82 years, m2 is 41.04, m3 is 0.374, m4 is 0.263, and m5 is 0.013, and wherein said plurality of Cox coefficients are a1 is 0.050/years, a2 is 0.010, a3 is 1.109, a4 is 0.373, and a5 is 1.957; and c) displaying said estimated risk R on a display wherein said estimated risk R is displayed as a quantitative or qualitative measure.