Patent ID: 8700363
Filing Date: 2014-04-15
Classification: G01C,G06F,G08G

Abstract:
1. A method of calculating a risk of a dual independent engine shutdown sequence during a predefined ETOPS flight of a two-engine aircraft, the predetermined ETOPS flight including takeoff from an origin airport and touchdown at a destination airport, the method comprising: calculating a probability of a dual independent engine shutdown sequence for each of a climb phase, a non-ETOPS early cruise phase, an ETOPS phase, a non-ETOPS late cruise phase and a descent phase into which the predefined ETOPS flight is divisible, the dual independent engine shutdown sequence being composed of a sequence of events that for each phase is mutually exclusive of others of the phases, the sequence of events for a phase including events having respective, conditional probabilities the product of which is the probability of the shutdown sequence for the respective phase; calculating the risk of the dual independent engine shutdown sequence during the predefined ETOPS flight as a function of the sum of the probabilities for the phases; and communicating the risk for display, wherein the dual independent engine shutdown sequence is composed of a sequence of events that for each phase includes a third event of an inability of a first engine to restart after shutdown during the predefined ETOPS flight, and after a non-restartable second engine shutdown before touchdown at the destination airport or an alternate airport, wherein the method further comprises calculating the conditional probability of the third event for each phase, the conditional probability of the third event for a phase being calculated as the ratio of a non-restartable engine shutdown rate to total engine shutdown rate for the respective phase, the ratio for at least some of the phases being separate and independent, and wherein operations including calculating the probability, calculating the risk, communicating the risk and calculating the conditional probability are performed by a system including a processor and storage medium coupled to the processor and having computer program code stored therein that, in response to execution by the processor causes the s stem to perform the respective operations.