Patent ID: 9020651
Filing Date: 2015-04-28
Classification: G06Q

Abstract:
1. A utilization start interval prediction device for predicting, for each of a plurality of appliances consuming electric power, a prediction interval which is a time interval predicted to have a high possibility that utilization of the appliances is started, said utilization start interval prediction device comprising: a utilization interval data storage unit configured to store, for each of the appliances, history data of a utilization interval which is a time interval in which the appliance has been used; and a prediction interval prediction unit configured to predict a prediction interval at least for each of the appliances based on the history data of the utilization interval, wherein said prediction interval prediction unit includes: an evaluation unit configured to calculate, by using the history data of the utilization interval, an evaluation value for determining a prediction scheme of the prediction interval, the prediction scheme being for each of the appliances; a determination unit configured to determine at least one of a first prediction scheme and a second prediction scheme as the prediction scheme of predicting the prediction interval for the appliance based on the evaluation value at least for each of the appliances, the first prediction scheme being a prediction scheme using a property that the appliance is utilized in a predetermined cycle, and the second prediction scheme being a prediction scheme using a property that the utilization of a second appliance that is the appliance is started in a period from a start or an end of utilization of a first appliance that is an other appliance until a passage of predetermined time; and a prediction unit configured to predict, as the prediction interval, a time interval of a first duration in the case where the first prediction scheme is determined, and predict, as the prediction interval, a time interval of a second duration with reference to start relationship data in the case where the second appliance is determined, the time interval of the first duration including a time periodically corresponding to a start time of the utilization interval included in the history data of the utilization interval, the time interval of the second duration including a time when the utilization of the first appliance is started or ended, and the start relationship data indicating the first appliance corresponding to the second appliance, wherein said evaluation unit is configured to calculate, for each of the first appliances, a probability that in the history data of the utilization interval, the start time or the end time of the first appliance is included in a period starting from the start time of the utilization interval of the second appliance to ending before a predetermined time, and calculate, as the evaluation value, the number of the first appliances for each of which the calculated probability is equal to or greater than a first threshold value, and said determination unit is configured to determine the first prediction scheme as the prediction scheme for the second appliance in the case where the evaluation value is equal to or greater than a second threshold value, and determine the first prediction scheme as the prediction scheme for the second appliance in the case where the evaluation value is less than the second threshold value.