Patent ID: 9196145
Filing Date: 2015-11-24
Classification: G08B

Abstract:
1. A method for automated location dependent natural disaster forecast and disaster impact forecast by means of a forecast system, natural disaster events being measured by located gauging stations, location dependent measurement parameters for specific geotectonic, topographic or meteorological conditions associated with the natural disaster being determined and critical values of the measurement parameters being triggered to generate a dedicated event signal for forecasted disaster events and impacts of the disaster event within an area of interest, comprising: collecting historical disaster events by the forecast system and generating and saving spatio-temporal patterns representative of the occurrence of said historical natural disaster events on a memory module of a calculation unit, said spatio-temporal patterns comprising a plurality of points representative of geographical positions and/or intensity of the event within the area of interest, determining for a geographical area of interest geotectonic, topographic or meteorological condition data based upon said spatio-temporal patterns by means of the calculation unit, said condition data giving the propagation of a natural disaster event dependent of the distance from a specific excursion point or track dependent on the geotectonic, topographic or meteorological structure along a specific propagation line, detecting an occurrence or the forthcoming of an occurrence of a natural disaster within the area of interest by located gauging stations measuring event parameters of an excursion point or track of said disaster event, and transmitting the event parameters to the forecast system, generating a footprint record based on the transmitted event parameters and condition data, said footprint record comprising the propagation of the event across the area of interest, a grid over the geographical area of interest being established by means of the calculation unit, a magnitude value of the detected natural disaster event is generated based on the footprint record for each grid cell, determining for each grid cell a population of a specific population by the system, and curve factors of a vulnerability curvature are generated by means of an interpolation module based on said population, said vulnerability curvature setting the affected population in relation to a magnitude of a natural disaster event, generating, by means of the footprint record and generated vulnerability curvature, an affected population value for each grid cell and assigned to a lookup table, giving the affected population by the natural disaster event, and generating, by means of a trigger module, a signal impulse, if at least one of the affected population factors of the lookup table within a grid cell is triggered by means of a trigger module to be higher than a definable threshold value, said signal impulse is transmitted as control signal to one or more alarm systems by the natural disaster forecast system.