Patent ID: 7200518
Filing Date: 2007-04-03
Classification: G06Q

Abstract:
1. A method to determine the probability of the capacity of a plant over a time window of interest, said time window having a time length P, where P equals a multiple of the shortest time interval of interest (STII), said probability exceeding a desired value or failing to meet a desired value is determined, said method comprising the steps of: (a) assembling said plant's historical production data over a selected time L so that said historical data represents plant production at STII intervals (b) for each said STII interval, calculating the availability fraction; (c) calculating the availability or capacity (Ci) from said availability fractions for each contiguous portion of length P of said selected time L, where “i” is an index representing the number of contiguous P length portions contained in said selected length L; (d) creating a histogram or probability distribution data set from said availabilities or capacities Ci; (e) from said histogram or probability distribution data set, calculate the probability of the capacity of said plant either exceeding a desired value or failing to meet a desired value; (f) outputting said probability of the capacity of said plant either exceeding a desired value or failing to meet a desired value.