Patent ID: 8015055
Filing Date: 2011-09-06
Classification: G06Q

Abstract:
1. A system for supporting prior evaluation of a service for improving business, comprising: a bus; a communications unit connected to the bus; a computer readable storage device connected to the bus; a processor unit connected to the bus and to a computer readable memory; input means, stored in the computer readable storage device for execution by the processor unit via the computer readable memory, for accepting selection of an index comprising a historical record of business trend data useable for indicating a degree of improvement of the business and accepting setting of multiple future scenarios which influence success/failure of improvement of the business, wherein each scenario at least comprises a set of business conditions and a financial situation of the business; storage means for storing the index and the multiple future scenarios; calculation means, stored in the computer readable storage device for execution by the processor unit via the computer readable memory, for calculating a first estimate value of the index for occurrence of each scenario of the multiple future scenarios, wherein the first estimate value is determined by processing the historical record of business trend data with a statistical filtering technique to calculate an occurrence probability of each scenario and calculating a second estimate value based on the first estimate value and a first risk to achievement of a first business improvement corresponding to the first estimate value; wherein the business includes multiple business elements; and wherein the statistical filtering technique is performed using low-pass filtering or Kalman filter-based prediction; and the calculation means calculates a first vector having the multiple business elements before achievement of the first business improvement as vector components and a second vector having the multiple business elements after achievement of the first business improvement as vector components; and the calculation means calculates the first risk to achievement of the first business improvement as a first metric distance between the first vector and the second vector; and the calculation means calculates a first reduction amount corresponding to the risk to achievement of the first business improvement from the first metric distance, the first estimate value and a logistic function obtained from the first estimate value; and the calculation means calculates the second estimate value by subtracting the first reduction amount from the first estimate value.