drawdown drawdown means that first point in time when greenhouse gases peak and go down on a year to year basis that's the definition how to draw down start it started in two thousand and one when i read the i p c c summary third assessment and like the ones that preceded it it was more pessimistic than the one as it as it follows they get more pessimistic and the reason for that isn't so much that things have changed is that there is less suppression of the data because there are consensus reports but there's no such thing as scientific consensus science is evidentially it's not about consensus the consensus was in the saudi arabians and the chinese and the russians and the venezuelan suppressing the projections in the science fantastic group of people  i read it i parsed it look we have a big problem i found about this educated in climate change when i was at stanford research institute in the seventies the bio chemistry the physics of it it's pretty straight for it's not difficult to understand actually it and this is what captured my attention at that time actually the first slide i want to show you before that is really where we are and where we are as a straight line and so oftentimes what you hear is language around climate change was about medication about production about stabilisation about zero you hear this this language well that dotted line no human being of any shape or form even in a primate form is existed on that earth when the levels of c o two are above that dotted line so anybody who says they know it's going to happen above the line is guessing it may be an accurate guess it may be good science but is total speculation we don't know so in two thousand and one and even more so now when people are talking about and this could this was two thousand and one easily it's just a little bit higher now and twenty seventeen the point being is that we are so far beyond anything that this species us has ever encountered or lived with them and that peak to the left the thames river delta the sea level was twenty to thirty feet higher in different parts of the ocean there was crocodiles in alligators use me and alaska and lions and giraffes rotting through germany and it was a very different climate regime then and now has two eighty five we are at four o two so at that time and specially now it's really important to name the goal he don't name the goal not and probably h it if you don't know the goal if you don't understand the goal and the goal is draw down so when you use words like what you have when we're to use like mitigation of adoption slowing down it's really like thelma and the ways in slow motion if you're going over a cliff and you slow down you want to go over the cliff more slowly ok if you're going down the wrong road you slow down it's still the wrong road and so the language around how we should address this problem has been very as i say  a what's the word weak kneed and not really helpful and somebody said to me well dr i want an ambitious goal i said no i'm not ambitious as you guys are really not and you're  don't know you know it's like this is not ambitious this is about preserving civilization this is about creating the conditions in which music art right society culture knowledge can grow birds and blossom and this is for us this is this perfect holocene period of climatic stability in which civilization emerged and now are supposed to reduce that or stabilize that there is no stability on that line anywhere no such thing so what i saw there was this carbon mitigation initiative from princeton in two thousand when that same year came out with the famous global fifteen solutions that comprises a wedge is and i looked at him a different way i looked at him like this which is all those are great out those as solutions that only could be done by large corporations i mean large conservative corporations like we're talking about energy and utility and car companies all levon of those and at that time those solutions were deeply under water financially that is to say if the even more conservative boards of directors of those corporations communities neighborhoods small businesses farmers grasslands forests they weren't there really people weren't there this is this is dangerous all about things you know to know i'm just like you what can i do what can we do figure out how to solve this and it's a gas a great idea and so let's figure out the carbon impact and what would happen in thirty years is drawdown possible even possible at all maybe it's other way around maybe it's game on and is that level of frankly in this case terror you know if you google the top ten solutions to global warming or climate change right now these are two steam scientific organizations these are the top five don't forget to put that power strip in your entertainment center and it's like really you know i mean the implication or that if you didn't do it then you feel guilty and you feel bad about yourself but these are so cute is that for go fossil fuels i try it for twenty four hours try it can eat it was shipped and you can you know i mean think about it and it's very difficult to do move closer to work i mean this you know like you can afford that y and so yeah that's the book and this is what it looks like conceptually and it shows that point that inflection point and start out and that's the goal we want to inflect we want to go the other way and what's affecting our perception around this is how we get the news and how we get the news is really and usually and headlines usually with a sense of threat of doom gloom it may not be true in this room but certainly the  greater mass of people in the united states and the world get their news this way you know and this is a love this one this one because as you can see over here you know you have click the level of importance and there's lamar smith a guy from congress who always you know says climate change is a conspiracy this is a good one to you know which is you know severe consequences and the real reason that so many women have to spend so much time getting ready ok so i mean so when you present information the science is actually good on this headlines that they're accurate you know and twenty things you  so i borrowed money from my retirement plan and gave money that money had been given to me to write a book by an italian philanthropist i gave and so we started it but we had no money to hire really great stuff and a big step that i'm right there he's waving in the back you can stand up and i felt like a if we're going to do this we have to be a coalition has to be a collaboration it has to be us talking to us we talking to we not a white charismatic male vertebrate saying i've got a plan we've got one in the white house i mean that's the worst thing you want is a white male at the plan so that's just not kind of and so so we needed you know men and women with an idea and with a heart and with compassion and wit great scientific minds and we also got one hundred twenty advisors these are some of them and along with one hundred twenty advisors we have about forty outside x for science reviewers and so what we did is just collect all the solutions we're going to mock that measure and model the top one hundred solutions to reverse global warming that was our self imposed amend it and so we started gathering them all and going through them winnowing of them looking checking doing back of the napkin stuff and on by one we accumulated the less that's in the book and some of them dropped out when we got deeper into them and we had to add some but basically it came down to eighty that we modeled and twenty which we call coming attractions for that are so they're valid scientifically but there's really not sufficient data in terms of carbon or the financial impact we model both their carbon impact and the financial world as a cost what's t return what's in that operating saving the life so i'm savings etc so we did both and on the carbon we only used peer reviewed science ok that's only import we use not an adult science not internet size we use real science and and so and we also did it in such a way that we always chose a more conservative number and we had a choice we always went conservative in the criticism we got for what you're going to see from our advisors and from outside scientific experts was you're too conservative it's low is too low it's better it's cheaper it's more impact and that's exactly the criticism we wanted that was on purpose we want people to say it's better than that it's not it's you egged the putting or you know fluff that up anything like that and so what do we do we just do math that's who we do and the math has been done and what's going to happen if we don't act but it has not been done on the top solutions to global warming and it's announced apologises going to have to figure out why we didn't do  know and there is a good idea you know and you know ok and so what you see here and the first one is the rank by twenty fifteen that rank is carbon impact there's only two things you can do about that the sphere with respect to global warming stop putting greenhouse gases up there which is conservation efficiency or substitution or seek restoration which is  c o two that is reduced avoided or sequestered depending on this solution this is the net cost the net cost is the cost compared to what you would do if you weren't going to would be combined cycle gas would it be a coal plant depending on which country where and did it does cost more or less in this case it actually costs less and then the last figure is over the lifetime to twenty fifty how much money would it cost would you make money or lose money in this case you would save one point two trillion dollars and so would just go whizzing through this this is improved rice production rice is a big source of methane and if you change the actually cost less you produce more produces methane production by fifty percent as you can see the cost is of one farmer walking across his field to the next one in teaching at that there's a zero cost to do to this solution but it saves a lot of put it in because our mandate was to map measure and modeled one hundred top solutions to global warming that doesn't mean we're advocates of doesn't mean that there's not solutions and here that have spillover effects that doesn't mean there's not solutions here that every we called regrets illusions most of them are no regrets which we should do them in if there was no climate science whatsoever we should do that so many benefits turns to peace and security and health and wellbeing and and jobs but some of them are the other way around and this is certainly one of them but the reason we did it is because we had to maintain our objectivity if we start saying i don't like the solution and leave it out or this one's really cool and i like it my friends are doing it then the whole book and all their work would be completely suspect and thrown out so that's why it's included i happen to think it's the most ridiculous way people have ever been to boil water but i mean that's all it does you know i are renewable as an energy source that have many more implications and that this is the number ten solution this is one of my favorites called educating girls and and this is a muzzle hit this right now number six way up there you know the drill i'm sure you do from girls rising hair vulcan and the girl effect and so much work has been done in this area which is what happens if a girl isn't taken out of school and fifth and sixth grade a pew pew really are pre puberty and married off by her called serve family or for whatever reason and what happens is she gets to choose to be a woman on her own terms instead of him being imposed upon and her rate of reproduction goes from five if average and higher in certain countries and she's allowed to go to tenth eleventh twelfth grade and she is a very different person and the average reproduction is two which is below replacement rate and she because of education earns more she puts more resources into her children her sons and daughters do the same thing as she did in terms of their family planning and the impact is significant i want to get back to this because it's really important this is the great bear forest that promote the bear and this is forest protection it doesn't rank high you know because they're there already o two so it's very very important this is rain forest protection of restoration the number five solution this is regenerative aquaculture again very important and this people sort of making very outlandish even and ted talks by the way they claim is for this and other land use solutions like we can reverse levels of c o two back to industrial levels in ten years you know things like that and it's giving soil and the scientists call the soil people don't know what they're talking about is giving it a bad name in a way to make these outlandish claims and so one of things we're able to do is take land use and because you can only model something land use and a very specific categories and then measuring them very accurately as opposed to just guessing which we didn't want to do this is woman smallholders as you may know eighty percent almost eighty percent of the food in the world is produced if we don't support them and let them kill our about a fly's our soil and poisonous that somehow we're going to starve and yet what they produce is corn and soy and palm oil and sugar mainly for pigs and cows and trans fats and diabetes and this is they don't feed us at all this idea that somehow they feed us is simply not true day fetus this is where yeah yeah and so in this case the so what's the solution the solution is that she gets the same seeds tools and information that men get that's all it is and what happens this produces a lot more food and impact on forests so forth is less and there just gets better need this one can you guess what this is i thank you yes household the cycling this is a that's an aquaman in ethiopia and they built a bridge across from her village and they put a bar there for the workers and so the women go across the river every day and pick up the bottle caps and sim cards and make these beautiful head dresses and now they sell them to both cheeks in france and they're beautiful beautiful women this one is a transport solution i should have more transport bus trains cars also a starship every done this is the one transport solution we do have and this guy he works at pricewaterhouse coopers the former accountant for the oscars and and he's waving to this guy an i pad who's got his little many segway scooter it's good you know around the office he's in toronto the guy who's waving the guy in the i pad is surprised by the numbers came out we didn't get them until twelve weeks ago so we prepared the book design the book and had all camera ready copy or digital read a copy except the numbers and we wanted to work on the numbers to the very last second before penguin yanked it out of our clutches and because i'm never going to write the numbers you know this is endless you know and so when we got to me like oh my god was so surprised and you had to re hack and this and you're sure and yes and everything was right and it's so interesting me was i had a friend at that time who i've known for years and she went to paris twenty one and said you know work tor she he she knows climate i mean cold and and i said we are so surprised at the top five solutions said you know i don't think anybody the world knows the top five you yeah but to both of you can name the top five teams in the n b a right now right i mean come on you know i mean this is not you know i mean yeah of course it's like i don't know what's in it what's surprising us is this the number three solution is reducing food waste didn't see that coming we can understand once we saw the numbers we can work backwards and say yeah mean going to vegetarian unless you choose to it's fine no problem what it means is reducing the i don't know in take a protein in western nations to a level where you actually are healthy and that's all  is not eighty grams or one hundred grams a day that is not healthy it doesn't matter where you think your get in or what paleo diet you're on it's not healthy but it also includes raising the  people who have insufficient person in the world so within just reduce the last you know or the wealthier countries actually increase caloric protein content in those countries and still came out as number over and over and over again those are critically important solutions they're all important but i'm just saying the idea that there's a sees few things we can do in new york you know and you just hear it all the time that  every one of these solutions is scaling every one of the solutions is can do practical hands on w w granger they're happening right now they're not things we could do if only the all of them were doing them they're all scaling we it together and they're number one not refrigerant and injured which you saw on the other slide however this is the top solution standalone solution which we're actually sort of disappointed to these to and this is well in place this is one i want to look at here is educating girls again but look at the next one out it's family planning that number fifty nine point six twice ok is one hundred one thousand point two billion tonnes of avoided emissions and twenty fifty that's the real number we divide we separated them because the pathway a for terms of educating a girl versus a family planning clinic for a woman so she has reproductive  support for her health and her children's health are very very different pathways they end up in the same thing there's no bright line between the impact you can't say well this comes an out and this comes out so we just divided evenly right down the middle point being add them both up the number one solution to reversing global warming is empowering girls you again when's the last time you heard that and as i said recently in oakland it's not a panel it's a woman we need solar panels to you know but so we number this was that private medication they should if this is what it looks like this is what it really looks like this is get that to make sure it goes to survive to live to grow to create to put that sugar down the roots you know and and when they're closed obviously they're safe but they're also can't be close all the time because they'll starve cerf a plant always is close this time as always close it'll die it's always open it'll die so obviously system out of do something else which is open close open close open close look out to any landscape any any place in the world right here is a good look at how many things you see there are dying in front of you not very many trees and shrubs and perennials and grasses they're all living there are being modern and recently there are computer modeled and it and they discovered that they seem to have memory about temperature going back many days they can detect temperature they can detect humidity they can hear the around them and with all those calculations temperature time of day everything they open and close and open and close basically what i'm saying here is that they're  long gone you know i mean it's so this is extraordinary intelligence and this is what i hope this works it does and this is you seen this and think many of you see in this is a nasa simulation of carbon emissions and you know the oil change in the darker red in the darker red in the vermilion are really meant to symbolize concentrations of c o two in the atmosphere and so what you see here is what happens over a span of a year and what you see in the northern hemisphere where most people are and for work it's winter as you can see in the monthly counter and a counter on the bottom this is winter for most of humanity and what most of the humanity does in the winter is try to keep warm and turn the heater on the car and you know in their home and we're using a lot of power and we are still working industrially and putting gases up  start to see these little blue wispy things in the northern hemisphere and then they become stronger and more pronounced and they keep doing that through june july august september so what's two and you know you don't see much more and now ok the fact is that every year we draw down six to seven ppm drought on happens every year i mean significantly so it goes up and it goes down the earth is pretty so it's only possible it's happening so when we talk about drawdown we're talking about shifting so we have some equilibrium so that the emissions are not as great as the capacity of the earth to bring carbon back home and no basis it's not ambitious it's right in front of us and what we've learned from our research is that we can do it and thirty years with what we know and so again on this book the title of the other word plan verse the most comprehensive plan ever proposed to reverse global warming and i looked at and i thought he's right actually it is a plan and he saw it where i was hung up is the idea that we made a plan staff and our fellows you know we did make a plan we founded it there is a plan it's we know what to do we're on the case we're not  stupid right we actually care and we're thinking about our children the future of this place this extraordinary home we call earth and we're on it and every one of these solutions is scaling every one of these solutions in place around the world not in every country but around the world and so forth this is she now its collective wisdom at work it didn't come from paris it didn't come from a top it didn't come from some hierarchy it came from this sort of mysterious way the human beings have being wise in a collective way they may not understand as an individual and so that's this is  she's there in the front part of the book why she's our client that's what we always had a big picture of that as our client and this is about language says briefly if we're going to do this we have to change how we talk about it you  know if you use words like negative missions and decriminalisation and you know gee to e q i mean you just telling the people you're writing to or talking to that they don't know anything and you do it and there really are part of the problem and solution you know i mean the language of on climate science is guaranteed to alienate people who don't know the lingo in the jargon it's not necessary don't have to use it if you understand something you can say it in words that everybody can understand and  the other thing about language and there's many things there but only about languages stock we have to stop using the metaphors of war i mean combat climate change fighting climate change stopping climate change you know slashing emissions you know the war against it mean because that that those those verbs you know are the verbs of dualism the that's the that's the verb where there's something other out there than you it's like i to not me was i want to fight that thing it's the enemy that stop it like well that's the thinking that caused the problem exactly the thinking that caused the problem thinking that there's an ocean we could stick plastic into there is an atmosphere we can put our carbon into and so we can't solve it with the same mindset that created it and furthermore that mindset alienates and divides so you take those headlines that we saw before gloom threat doom and then you take that rhetoric and then you take to scientific american other things like oh a power strips and you know move closer to work and washing cold water and going miyake and so forth so now you have a little bit of guilt and shame you mix all together and stir well you have indifference numbness right the nile like i can't i don't know what to do that's not a way to come together it's not a way as we know that and so really this book also tries to use a different language to engage you open up and go what's that when you saw earlier woman you look at that page in the book for top solar there's a picture there of the first solar panel in eight hundred eighty four put on a rooftop in new york city made of not a way to enter into the problem of solving the problem it's not the way it's not the way in and it alienates people and every second you receive eleven million pieces of information your brain eleven every second and forty of them you process to about six or seven you actually do something about ok so if the cosseted information is about we're screwed you're going to get a population that votes for you know who and this is just a quick one just is so this is a part of the dashboard of a model just part of the dashboard to give some sense the complexity david m and the great mark hertsgaard and we also have coming attractions in the clothes at this and these are solutions that are scientifically valid but there are as i said earlier there's not economic or scientific that humanity is brilliant it's incredible and we have twenty of them in this book we're doing another book called d two it's called sixty more coming out actions and these are just this is just regaling the met office you know  two thousand and one he said was i wasn't of them and then and two years later is flying over and he said well they're more like melt lakes now actually and then two years later florida and it was like our lake a really really big lake and he got it how fast the ice sheet was melting and he invented this this is big frames made of recycled p t under the water of salt water doesn't break down p t for some reason and and there's these pumps that basically or actually by the rise and fall of the water and they have these tubes that go down to the thermocline to bring up the cold nutrient laden waters below which are now being stopped by these big heat weeks before they did one in hawaii and i think six weeks they had a whale shark there vegetarian they were on the kelp you know i mean so he's talking about we storing the productivity of the oceans ninety nine five people who are close to technology obviously think it's going to work i say it's twenty months they have one more miles on the go i follow them for eleven years as a journalist i think they have one more milestone to go which is not the most difficult one the snow to get at the browse to eat you know when it's you know dark and everything and the temperature of the saw goes down two degrees centigrade which protects the methane hydrates in the permafrost and so it's a permafrost protection solution and it's just brilliant stories and these buildings are more fireproof than steel and concrete buildings i know it's counterintuitive big big impact this is the last one i named this one it could be called the to it's you know remember the joke a panda bear walks into a bar you know this is a cow walks on to a beach and what is a farmer in prince edward island show dog and a notice that the far he's a dairy farm and most farms and island are near the ocean actually i think about it but he noticed that the cows are eating sea we produce more milk and so i asked the local and it's a very should talk to the scientists and why you know he's like what's going on and said well because methane and so the scientists heard about somebody in queensland who was doing the same work and they got together he went down the queensland and they just tried to find something that would mimic what kalpas doing in the seaweed and they found something called  pharmacist which native hawaiians solicits actually and if you feed it in a two percent level in two sheep or goats or cows or how tall nothing production is you do seventy to ninety  percent and and it's so cool and how it was discovered so remember the marine polar culture guy you know the guy is going to put these frames under the water and grow those two are working together and raising money so and lastly is there a business case i love that question i don't get it from you but i do get it from business people and i so our business case i'll tell you the business case for this you tell me the business case for double glazing the planet destroying the arsons and clear cutting of tropical forests and you know poisoning everything else in between you know there was this question itself was so interesting because it sort of implies that the business is just about money you know but it turns out that when we added the numbers i said twelve weeks ago we had the total budget and we had to make sure we don't double counting system dynamics is a complex model and it turns out that if we institute these solutions over the next thirty years we'll save twenty seventy eight trillion dollars save money and there it's worth the cost the cost of zeros now there's no cost at all and i want to just read you just an excerpt from one of our spoiler alert he did come back from mars and so i remember at the end of the movie if you saw it i mean he was the wise you know elder so to speak and he was went to a class of new and that's what you need to know going in because it's absolutely going to happen to you this is space it does not cooperate this is it doesn't care what you think it doesn't cooperate didn't i'm saying that at some point everything is going to go south on you everything and you are going to say this is how it's all going to end now you can either accept that or you can go to work that's all it is you just began and you do the math and i love that you do that solve one problem and you solve another and you solve the next one and the next one and if you solve enough problems you get to go home and that's what this is about less go home let's not waste a minute thinking that we can't do it or this impossible or that somebody else is going to do it for us you know or that we need somebody at the white house who understands that we would like that but we do not need it to act to support to enlist to engage to implement a and many other solutions remember that  where it showed all those little tiny solutions you know the little tiny ones could little tiny little there's no names on this so tiny right note that in order to achieve drawdown you need those as much as you need the big ones so this idea we should focus on the big ones oh yeah for sure there is no small so there's a sentence is there are small people is or lesser species is or a lesser stars or less i mean just that thinking is the thinking that got us and all this focus on the big ones solar wind solar and you know it's like all of them together and the ones that seem margin small are extremely unbelievable unbelievable has adopted draw down as the template to reverse global warming and and and and institute economic it eak a logical regeneration for all fifty two nations in the commonwealth and that's almost one third of humanity and one fourth of land that she saw the book early on p d f form and said let's go and that is for real and that's happening and the research we're doing from no thanks want to say we can do this this is happening for us this is a gift this is an offering this is feedback from the only home we know which is planet earth as a feedback from the atmosphere and it's to transform everything we do and reimagine it to make a far kinder more generous compassionate beautiful productive world than the one we have today and that's what this is about thank you so much