america into another no win conflict this time with iran what unfolds should israel recklessly bomb iran disaster warns my guest richard silverstein we discuss tonight israel iran and disaster richard alarm recently in a blog would bombing iran by israel bring disaster to america i think it would bring disaster to the region it would bring disaster to israel and it would bring disaster indirectly to the us as well you may recall that general petraeus testified before congress week or so ago and he raised the israel palestine conflict as a real sore point in the arab world that is actually causing the loss of american troops the anger and hostility that the arab street feels towards the u s because of the unresolved israeli palestinian conflict is hurting the u s that's powerful and you know it's overdue to have a man of that caliber finally develop into what is so obvious i think so many people for so long you think to listen to it i think that when you know america's leading general says  it takes it into a different dimension it's different than if you say it or i say it we don't have stripes on area you know it we're not wearing a uniform don't have all those medals so yes i think it has a lot more credibility coming from a military officer and it was taken up by vice president biden who is also a very important figures always been known as being pro israel and for him to start talking this way means that there is a sea change happening but you have to contrast with the media tenor today you know we just had a basically a love fest and she was the one who use that that that rhetoric of saying there's no daylight between israel and united states we're all one you know one big happy family and i think that that that  serious issues that divide the u s and israel but i think she's thinking about the november elections and she doesn't want to come across as being soft on but still she gives away that kind of language almost like a promissory note without qualifier in other words israel go do whatever you want we told you that will stick with you slowly shameful and bibi plays on that if he ever has a trouble a problem with a president and he's done it he did it with bill clinton and he is trying it with the  appeal over the head of the president to the american people to the congress and he says you know the congress is the one that gives it gives me my weapons and gives me my three billion dollars every year and i only need their support and i'm going to play off the president against the congress but  israel able to affect american elections to such an extent are we captured by israel that that our politicians have to cite language like no daylight and during bonds and not pay attention not qualify it and say you've got to be a moral nation not a criminal nation more money is the moral is the mother's milk of politics is jesse unruh said and apac and its donors have a lot of money and they're willing to freely spend on on these congressional and presidential elections and so yes they have a huge sway and i don't want to be confused and have people think that i'm saying that they're you know a pac and the israel lobby have complete utter control like a robotic control over israel policy they don't it's a struggle for them as it is for the peace lobby which i support but they have much much more power than than than the peace loving maybe like their business is too big to fail there are basically lobbies to invalid financially to to really go on certainly a pact being an unregistered agent of a foreign power at least we should register them and maybe we could track where that money is coming from a pac is extremely powerful but i think even with all the my me i think that the the the logic of the their position is undermined and israel is helping by being so intransigent that no amount of money is going to overwhelm the fact that israel's policy is bad for israel and bad for the united states and still they can shut down diplomacy iran we may actually if i'm reading your warning correct be going in direct way to war against iran because of wrong that in this my israel yeah when the israeli sound the trumpet of war bibi and his general sound the trumpet of war it really resonates in the united states and it's really hard to stop that train when it's going down the track as fast as it is even though it's just so obvious that they confuse this whole issue of nuclear power and a nuclear weapon well and they've also confused history by talking about iran as if it's you know medina job as if he's hitler and tehran is munich and it's two thousand and ten but it's really one nine hundred thirty eight you hear that kind of rhetoric over and over and over again and it's designed to confuse people and it's and to make you think that to make you it's really garbage pure garbage well how about these sanctions that are being you know put together orchestrated by the jewish lobby for israel is that a ruse well i think that the except for in south africa which is a different set of circumstances we work but in no other country we tried to have sanctions against russia when they invaded afghanistan it didn't work you know you look at any number of situations it doesn't work and speaking of  speaking of china those are major trading partners were there and they probably are going to be very reluctant to go along with an israel sponsored sanction program yet there you hear differing stories every day it's a different one but but i think ultimately china and russia will be very reluctant to go along with sanctions against iran and even if they did i just i just really don't see how it's going to work you know one thing that's got me worried and made your article so timely and also a real concern is that there was an article about bunker busters being forward deployed to diego garcia in the indian ocean certainly in position to be used against iran i think that that is designed to elicit some kind of response from the iranians to frighten them to maybe get them to be more pragmatic possibly or it just see what what they would do or how they would react but what concerns me as much or more i don't personally i don't believe the united states is going to bomb iran what i'm concerned about is that israel might do that because israel is much more willing to do something like that than the obama administration so those a bunker busters that are sitting in the in the you know shin now could be transferred to israel and  united states gave israel a bunker buster which is used to try to assassinate haasan the stroller during the lebanon war and it failed so we have to remember that even if israel gets those bunker busters and does use them it may not succeed in wiping out the iranian nuclear program it but it would it would make us complicit though it oh yes definitely definitely and and what we have to keep in mind and i know we're going to talk about this war game scenario which is so chilling but we have to keep in mind is that we will be seen as a willing participant an accomplice by the iranians and by iran's allies and so we can expect blowback both in the end it possibly in the united states and possibly can start troops overseas maybe kinston jewish targets here or in other countries  little bunch of different questions how would such a war start what would each side have to do in order to get to the point where they would go to war once they did decide to go to war what weapons what they use what kind of casualties would there be what kind of impact would it have on the economy of both nations how long would the war last and what kind of blowback would there be for people outside the region for the united states i'm willing to venture here that none of these scenarios are anything but graham yeah he does not see any light for israel in this kind of scenario he paints a kind of picture where you know we saw in the lebanon war against hezbollah that northern israel was basically a ghost town and so he's saying that what would happen is that basically all of israel would turn into a ghost town that rainy and missiles and their weapons of iran's proxies hezbollah mohsen and the syrians would really create a state of terror in israel all those missiles are within reach of israel popular population centers and yeah yeah hezbollah now is longer range missiles than the even had in the last war iran's missiles could reach virtually all of israel and even hamas if they wanted to could have an impact in southern israel and this is this is what i think dubbed the white scenario he said that the inet the initial attack would possibly be short with israel bombing  nuclear program and then nuclear facilities and then israel and then iran counterattacking with missiles in it because iran has a limited number of missiles and they're very expensive that would be short and then there would be a lull he says that would just be a well it would just be the beginning and what would come after would tail in the face of what the initial attack was and this is where the proxies come in and it's just ongoing right right he paints a picture of israel possibly having to occupy lebanon in order to stop the follow from attacking paints a picture of iranian troops going through syria to get to the front and possibly even going through turkey if turkey is willing to cooperate and a united front against israel hezbollah syria iran and hamas it's kind of like a disaster scenario for israel because once if israel's enemies ever united to end fought all together against israel it could be a disaster because the i d f is not the fearsome warrior force that it's always been in its history its proven vulnerable in the last two wars that it fought and there's no israel does not have a guarantee that it can wield that kind of fear and terror on its on its enemies as it did in the past so we'll have his back against the wall wall it's idea of can't stay mobilized certainly biological chemical nuclear weapons would be pondered now there's a another scenario the very sites and i think calls that the soft scenario well there's one part of his scenario is that iran would go on a counterattack not not a military counterattack but it would attempt to use diplomatic means to fight against the israeli attack it would go to the u n it would try to persuade the united states to restraining itself the whole while and in bringing censure against israel right and it would try to go to the united states and say israel's attacked us and it's the aggressor state go to the u n security council and say we want you to sanction israel we want you to stop military weapons and and spare parts going to israel even if the united states  policy has been working just about everything it does gives impetus to b t s i'm sorry you know when you're when you think about these scenarios in isolation you know there's always the un the unknown i think is rumsfeld who said you've got no back against the wall wall resorting to nuclear weaponry i don't think that very talks about that but of course that's in the back of everybody's mind and israel would clearly if it felt it was under any kind of threat a serious threat would be willing to use nuclear weapons there's no question about it's very consistent with its job you know announced policies yet the policy is that you know if you decide that you can hit us we'll hit you back with ten times what the world is going to change it seems i mean this is why you put out the warning it looks like israel is going to go through this sequence of sanction rouge it's not going to work they're going to have to do something militarily and then all hell is going to broke break loose you can't control it once you grow militarily who's around is a very potent power to be messing with and as you mentioned the wasn't the be iraq iran war show that probably you're not going to get those motives to change for their policy  by hitting them you know i think that what this is telling us is and this is why i write my blog is is to mobilize public support here in the united states to push the  administration to maintain a pragmatic and realistic approach to iran and not to falls way to the siren song that israel is playing of military forces being a way to resolve this  because military force will i keep saying it over and over again like a broken record but it will be a disaster no question about it's a disaster for americans that is about to come it would be a disaster with some things that i didn't talk about yet we should also keep in mind in that is that iran and its proxies around the world would be willing to engage in terror attacks against american targets against israeli targets against jewish targets we could have synagogues bombed here and in other countries and we could have assassinations of of these really leaders it's really military officers and there's really no security motel or measures that are that are possible and just think of the economics of even attempting yes well israel would you know like you to believe that its securit impeccable and impregnable but you know we've seen today that anybody who has a strong enough will to do something can probably carry it out we've seen in american history that people have been able to kill president so well just to just to make this a little more graphic i mean the straits of hormuz are maybe is not going to be able to protect those shipping lanes and definitely if we've got a really animated middle east that would be just be iran iraq would be afghanistan it would be pakistan we've got agricultural industry is on or oil if we are out of oil we're out of food and we're out of food because our all of our farming equipment runs on gasoline and oil and you know once our farmers are paying double and triple the cost of their gasoline for their equipment you know they shut down the equipment because they can't make a profit well you know stiglitz the economist said the cost of the american campaigns that had a lot of music on contribution to getting started in iraq and afghanistan will total probably three trillion dollars it's probably even higher now since he's made that prediction but what you're warning about is staggering there probably isn't enough money to even make it economically sensible to be talking about all hell breaking loose and i think if we looked at the economic collapse that we've seen over the last year or two i think we're talking about i don't know if i would say collapse but we're talking about a man made catastrophe not just a military catastrophe but a potential economic catastrophe as well because this will not just affect the middle east this will affect the economies of all the major countries in the world it's one of the reasons  china is so nervous about the idea of sanctions and what to come after because of their economy is booming right now and it relies to a large extent on iranian oil and american trade which would probably end as well then we get into what the economists call mickey where you have little trading blocs with a lot of militarism going back to gunboat diplomacy probably let's talk about israel as an ally do you think it makes the cut as being an american ally i think that there's a real misnomer among the jewish neo cons that we've talked about the israel lobby and that is they put forward this idea that is israel's interests and the united states interests are the same they talk about israel and as the only democracy in the middle east which is not accurate but they talk about israel and the united states being democracies and freedom and our histories being you know so linked together and you know people joke among american jews a joke about his or being the fifty first state but that's really very very deceptive in dangerous attitude to have because israel is a separate country in the united states is a separate country we may have overlap of our interests but our interests not only aren't the same but they shouldn't be the same you know you see that so clearly why doesn't mean stream media report that way why are they reporting no daylight nonsense rhetoric from our two mandated elected leaders because they hear it from the powers that be in the israel lobby that have the ear of the media they have the funds to take out the ads and to write the books and to go on the t v shows and they have the pundits you know that that talk on c n n and all these outlets and fox news and they put out that message and the media is either too lazy or too ignorant to ferret out voices like  me in my blog and the other jewish progressive bloggers that are putting out a different message and we're saying that israel has different interests than the united states and that we must recognize that and mean what's be willing to separate ourselves from israel and if israel is saying we want you to we want you to go down this garden path towards bombing terror on and bombing nuclear facilities we have to say no that's not in the united states interest and not only will we not do it ourselves we won't let you do it so not only are we not going to give them the green light we're going to give them of flashing red light if they should transgress we might hold them to some international law all right you know they say that during the bush administration when  washington he asked for green knight and bush gave him a red light and that's what we need to do we need to shut them down and we need to tell them that they will pay a price not just pay a price in and of itself from iranian blowback but but they will pay a price in an alienation of the affections of the u s government and its people but israel just might go it alone are they operating as a hedge i'm on an operating with their own prerogative in that region they can't go it alone if the united states has i'm thinking of a four letter word i should use on t v but if we have that kind of of sturdiness of purpose and faith in our principles they will not be able to withstand obama's not able to curb the the latest round of settlements and jerusalem well i'm hoping that he got a little backbone because i understand bibi strip was not a happy one in his last one in the united states and in washington in that he and biden and hillary clinton really gave him an earful and he went back to israel very very unhappy so i'm dubious a lot of the times about obama and whether he has the spine to do it but i was very pleased about what happened in washington and i think that if i think that iran is even more in our interests to stop then stopping housing and settlement construction you strew slim but we look at we look at gaza and the devastation there in america came after the fact probably before the fact we were supporting them do you think that maybe the israelis will just go break dream and then america will put its umbrella of defense over willing to stand up to israel that the weight of all of the violations that israel has engaged in international law of human rights the killings of unarmed civilian palestinians that all of those things will eventually cause israel's position to fall like a house of cards and that's why the goldstone report has resonated so strongly it's why you know the idea of bringing israeli they are the more those alternatives resonate so i have faith that historically the obama administration is even if it has to be dragged along by those things that it will and eventually there will be just one of the big elephant sitting in the room is that a pac has been a force for american disaster if we if we conclude that it is a work out so that it can bring  politicians to their knees and make them genuflect and global basins and use those you know during bonds of friendship without qualifiers on israel what do you what's your assessment of these people in a pack that or americans i'm not talking about israelis that are pretty community expect them to you know speak for their country but americans that participate so strenuously in a pact that or about to bring ruin to america these people are deluded they sincerely and honestly do believe that israel and the us interest should be the same if israel but then will pass the reasonable man test would there not reason that's the problem but i think that there are enough other people outside of a pack even in the american jewish community that are reasonable it's one of the reasons why i'm so sympathetic to groups like j street which we've talked about on your program before j street acts as a  counterweight to a pack and become stronger and stronger by the day and the only way to fight back against a pack is by having groups like j street become stronger supporting candidates telling them they will give you money if you are willing to have a pragmatic and principled position about the israeli palestinian conflict if that's what apec does and that's the game that the progressives have to play as well so be it backers who are americans should be working to make israel a real partner for peace which it has never been i think that a pact would be much better off as an organization if it was pragmatic i mean you know people say that apec advances israel's agenda that's not even tru or don't even agree with the israeli government they are more right wing than the israeli government so so a package goes far beyond the positions that it would need to advance in order to  further israel's agenda and that's the kind of outrageousness that we need to fight against i don't even want to think about the world that we would live in and should israel strike  and i hope that viewers are share the worry and i want to thank you again richard for daring i know i know the pressure you received daring to write an alarm and to write about righteousness really and what  hope that people will listen to you and listen to general petraeus warning that it's the conflict in the middle east with israel and palestine and it's this head you monic mindset that is taking is right to the the ledge and we need more americans mobilized that are going to americanize this issue and demand maybe like a like a love child take that love child to the woodshed and give it a little