but you come into new york city and also the fight in between gresham new york was perfect brian welcome welcome very much to conversations where it's a pleasure to welcome to the program not seen nicholas taleb and this is his book we want to show right at the outside and it's called fo own background as good a little bit in a brief biographical kind of when then we can get in talking about some of the major items you're talking about in this book ok one thing i have to add is that i also teach in the math department in new york university ok related to randomness writing and everything i do is almost directly related to probability around the luck chasse either in the study of the subject or in the practice of that subject i and since then i've done nothing else obviate or on i got involved in the math of the room all the way to getting a doctorate later and i've been a traitor since that day i'm done nothing except study the philosophy of probability the mathematics of probability in medical choices where you go to doctor and what my odds are who tell you well i think that ten percent odds of not making it twenty percent odds of making it but you're going to be sort of crippled and you have seventy percent odds of surviving but you know i mean exactly the same thing ok of ability is a certainty in the sense that you would not have probability or right you would not have probability if you lived in a certain world events and whether it be certain you know you say probably the one hundred percent probab core of my way to go back to my work more of my work is identifying biases and we're on the standing of probability indeed taking advantage and taking advantage of it by being aware that by by making money i didn't mean the people going to go in and when you know they heard of a cousin of them yeah there's that who won at that game so it is a prevalent in our society for people not to understand probability but what we deal with not something as yeah but you know we are fit for an environment that doesn't have a lot of information no one has a leopard's that we run away from though we had had the ok doesn't have the you have to run for a bit so you have to go to the odds of surviving so we're fit for very simple emotions or something that off and random because the problem with chaos chaos theory is often misunderstood in the press everywhere to mean an increase in random this or in fact payoff is when you have something that looks very random that is generated blanik as being a anti intro pig synergistic function of the universe the biological evolution and moved across to entropy and brought increased patterns of conscious understanding the process of which we are a part of your game to call it e coli he came energy information and entropy are one of the same thing you understand the link between information and energy ok that you need to if you want to get information right you need to call someone you pay your phone bill y mindset i said let me give you the example please in my book here you have a gentleman who engages in the extremely a rigorous not planned attaining i have to admit right back this of dentistry oh dentist mean there must be a certain degree in which you can get you can get you know within certain mathematical form you can get certain there there is certainty there is uncertainty in the sense of that over the universe but there are certain things that can be got into what question and something they can't can't you you know set the ads in your favor by educating yourself and so when you become educated in you turn luck to your luck is the random totally random thing but if you educate yourself you've got a better chance of you can com then using new information technologies and different kinds of things that are there you can put the odds better in your favor how you just remind you need to do is understanding the existence of luck and things where you may not see them  and in philosophy of science we have something called at the static probability versus physical probably i won't get put technical there in what they think is something to call literary criticism there is none because they seem not to have a name for the things they right about the outcome and to the right that you have what you know with certain ok now the problem comes and then there's a countervailing force in that and it came back to that idea that there is it's not just everything moving toward that there's a countervailing force which is the biological process itself or the drama of things that are developing as far as we know in universe we don't have there's a link because i found a lot of pennies on wednesday and i had a good day on wednesday therefore the link between number of pennies the link between things and i'm not going to blame the journal it's relationships me on something or someone to interpret it's we are made physics is simple because the equation of physics identical to the equation we use in finance the heat the fusion equation the physics i don't understand from assistance or sect of the buddhists have been telling us forever and ever and it's a it's a truism is that there are no academic disciplines in reality it is a s web whether or not you want to get close to and you were there not it is a seamless web in is systems where you'll be introduced into new how things interrelated in a way even though you want to specialize yourself it way from your comprehensive what you want it to have a comprehensive and standing of what's going book by chapter chapter by chapter and so i'm not looking for some holistic interpretation of the we're not oh no i've never i mean consciousness i've read the masters book interesting great we know the mind body problem is there's not there's no mind body problem stop by that and that everything about never going nothing about everything you're right now going to patter it's an interesting time and now after two hundred thousand years of human evolution we're in a time of some sort of perhaps qualitative transformation you know and you realize we have the opportunity now and we're juggling we have the opportunity time last twenty years or so where with the weapons of destruction part of conscience we can destroy the species one person could do it to be about all that's really weird because we've been two hundred and ten thousand generations we have to be all that and i'm not thinking about that problem for one simple were there ten be advantages gained by understanding probability or understanding the trending of the advance and also by the using of new information and we've got these new super computing capabilities to get greater and greater amounts of information put into some sort of a theory to give you a better advantage in terms of understanding the way in which the market's going to go ok i'm going to be particularly advantageous to one particular fund over another or something and how far can we get towards getting a jump and getting advantage understanding comprehensive y trading and that sort of thing and what what's the difference between him and then what's the pattern of leadership of financial leadership that he would represent that there should be perhaps more of in terms of the financial world and then also this question of risk taking into taking a balance that does this lap over the says the corporations are ruling the world now they've been to court and says that the corporations are becoming a multinational corporation the corporation the financier electronic heard the people that the fund managers and that sort of thing are now running the world and the political entities the states have nothing much to say about it because there's no international agency to read later and things like that and it's those guys that are running the world so the guys that are involved with the funds of worth that are running the world so we're getting the call dated politburo giving too much money on a mist and the financial guys are the out big money in and out they're the ones that all the countries and humor you margaret can use and i doing as you are using well i wonder if marching may be just given control over them why do we have to worry about all these social concerns and things that politicians are involved with much less intellectual and or you know that kind of thing complexity more and more wrong things can take place that have not happened before more and more present are more and more things yeah we are going to i mean the ability to rock wreak havoc is so much greater now transformation of some sort there was consciousness before there was homo sapiens saving two hundred thousand years ago to off look at the scene and there will be perhaps in the evolution of things that we will reach a point where we are going to see if our genes are inadequate that we reach a point with scarcity laden institutions where there wasn't enough we have the ability to take care of things and liberate the human spirit within an ecological context in which not available to us over the long haul so it might be a positive time that we begin to look ahead in a maximum