good to see you thank you for joining us on managing your well i'm your holes deborah phrase you're welcome to our program the goal of our program is to bring timely and relevant information on well management topics to you our audience and to interview guests who can help impart knowledge that will help you make better and more informed decisions around managing your well our wealth management topic for today is technical analysis and here to help discuss this subject is mr bob dickey who is they managing director and our head technical analysts at r b c wealth management good morning bob good morning deborah thank you for joining  and for our viewers who watch our program all the time this is our first presentation so we're very excited about it and i'm honored that bob is our first guy guest and so we'll go back and forth and we really hope you enjoy the the program but technology is moving that's so bob has been with r b c wealth management for more than forty years and he has thought also been a residue in indiana minnesota war his entire life so who better to talk about trends and long term outlooks than someone who has had such longevity in his personal and his professional life bob is  market contests the wall street journal dart board contests and he was recently awarded best in the business by twin city business monthly and bob does all sorts of things for  firm he has a large following in with two as you know investors with individual investors financial advisors and his his main tool which we'll discuss quite a bit today market map is really one of the premier technical tools that's available in our industry so bob let's start by defining technical analysis can you tell us what technical analysis is and how and the economy and various individual companies and their businesses and the competition and all of that sort of thing in order to make good investment decisions and you know the vast majority of investors use fundamental analysis to make their investment decisions and that's good and that's the way it should be however when these fundamental analysts then make their decisions when investors make their decisions the trading that they do shows up as a price and it's a price that you can show on a chart and i one of those guys are technical analysis i guess i should say is a way of reading and trip reading the price trends that we see on charts that are the result of fundamental opinions buying and selling around charting and i know you've been with r b c for more than forty years you've done a number of things in the infancy one nine hundred eighty eight your focus has been mainly on technical analysis so that technical analysis the the the basis of that is always charting so tell me a little about how you started out charting how you became so passionate about it and what was it by that that made you make this your lifelong commitment well it's kind of interesting deborah back when i was seventeen years old and in high school i heard some money and i did i bought some stock because that's what my dad was doing and i had bought some stock with my dad stockbroker and then my dad stockbroker hired me to go to the library and look up prices in the wall street journal going back for three years so he could make charts of the various stocks that he was looking at and i thought well that's what you do and i was seventy eight years old time and then one of the most important things i learned when working at charts and this is a something that your listeners should keep in mind also is that you want to look at the longer term charts longer term pictures any longer term histories give you a better idea of what's going on and what to maybe expect with a certain stock and then looking at short term chart so that's one of the flaws i see most people doing when they look at charts they're looking at too short a term  at this and the shortest term chart i look at is generally three to five years now there are a lot of different internet services one of the big changes over the years is that back in the day you used to have to do all of this by hand by yourselves and then now it's evolved into the internet of course and i use the internet i use all free internet sites in my own work believe it or not there any of your listeners can also use but that's been the biggest change and it's allowed how often do you publish market maps and what is the goal behind this tool sure deborah will i do publish a daily market comment that that's also available to listeners on the r b c website  and then i also publish a monthly piece called market maps which we're going to take a look at here today and this is something that i put out every month that is available of for they asking if if people would ask you about it in the unit i have a lot of what i'm referring to as these long term charts i think the shortest chart i have in there is about eight years long but why don't we take a look at one of them here a and take a look at what i'm talking about is the longer term charts  but you know when you step back and look at a really long term trend like this you can start to pick up some afternoons and some of those patterns are late that these long periods of roles that the market goes through separated by these long periods of let's call it consolidation and really when i say consolidation i mean bull and bear markets and what happens is the economy and the stock market tend to grow and some long trends till these trends become irrationally bubbles are bursting whether it's the tech bubble or the housing bubble or financial bubble and we go through a period of consolidation of sideways market movement and sideways economy before things start to grow again and the the chart so it's starts and tell us where it starts and where it ends and and what your large coloreds that may mean yes what i've done as i've highlighted the areas of growth he green in the here is of consolidation in order and we've gone through in the two thousands here a period of consolidation where you know they call it the last decade where stocks really didn't go anywhere i mean that's what they say but really they were doubling and dropping and a half it was a series of the board in bear markets as we were going through recessions and tough times and now it appears we've broken from that consolidation period and back into a period of growth like what we saw in the forty's and fifty's and then again in the eighty's and ninety's and it looks to me and my guess is we start of a long period of growth and one of what we call a secular bull market that still has another ten to fifteen years to go up in the ninth that secular bull market very well first you have to be able to say it i go at it and you know i just do a lot of media work and they'd ask me if we're in a secular secular market and how long term your view is do they really believe what you're thinking of course they don't and that's all part of the i mean i always say the most important things to me are the trend and the s and the sentiment reigns how do people feel right now in these secular bull periods how people feel is usually not too good until this the bull market has gone for an extended period of time for a long  time and so we're in one of those periods i think right now where we are experiencing economic growth it's not great but it's growth and we are experiencing some experience in earnings growth as well and you feel that's not really great either and what i tell people is you don't really want a great you don't want a great economy and greater names because when things are as good as they get that's called the top right and you know since we had this big bear market and a bottom in a recession that ended in two thousand and nine and we've been growing in fits and starts ever since and i think we're going to see that kind of a trend continue here and gradually get better and better and people will feel better as time market and right before now we moved into the boy market and talk about some of the indicators are some of the things that investors could have thought about in the so that's you know the thirty four year period  not quite but what are some of the the lessons learned in the let's bear market that can help now as we're in this bull market this is the problem i'm going to call it a problem that this is one of the the t ricks of the stock market really you know a lot of your listeners especially investors who are maybe in their fifty's and sixty's and more remember these bear markets that we had in the two thousand to two thousand to two thousand  two tech bubble when it burst and then the financial collapse those are still very fresh in people's memories and you know what for most people for a lot of people it's going to stay there and they're going to remember those forever they are going to make the same mistakes again but by believing that what they're doing is making the same mistake again because knowledge they're not going to invest in stocks or they're going to be much too conservative and they might miss one of the next great growth periods and so i think that's what we've got looking at here is a very good growth period where some parts of the market i think are going to do fantastically well ok so bob the year to date the dow is up about one point nine percent the s and p five hundred about three percent the nasdaq is up almost twelve percent at eleven point nine and the russell two thousand the small cap market is up only zero point one percent so i know you have a focus on some of the caps for next year so tell me a little about your theory fourth mall cap why you think they're going to leave the market in two thousand and sixteen sure well deborah you mentioned that the nasdaq was up eight percent and that's largely because some of the very large technology and health care stocks especially the biotech stocks trying to lead the formants here that in the last year while most of the rest of the market was pretty mitrokhin and what we've been seeing i think is the market has been what they call consolidating really trading  a range for the last year or even a little longer after the big move up we've had since two thousand and nine really from two thousand and nine to two thousand and fourteen you know the dollar jones i mean s and p tripled from those little rest and so now it's been taking a breather for the last year or so and i am not so sure about two thousand and sixteen i think it's going to start out kind of how it is this year and that is more flat in a trading range but i do see growth coming back towards the end of two thousand and sixteen usually when you have growth in stocks and the market is led by the smaller stocks so that's one area of the market i think will outperform next year ok and what are some of the indicators that will occur far as timing the market goes it does require a belief and a commitment a commitment that you do believe that we are in a longer term bull market and when you can admit that which i believe then you view market pullbacks in the meantime as opportunities to build stock positions so what we saw here a month ago the s and people back sixteen percent i think that was one of the opportunities to get a little more aggressive with your stock investing you know over the next several months or maybe even six we could see similar types of market dips in the five to ten percent kind of category that will allow for for more building a portfolio so that's a kind of market timing i'd be talking about rather than trying to get it perfect ok bob so what groups look bath for the short term and then i'm going to ask you for some of your ideas for the long term  him to twenty percent bounce up in the price of many gold stocks year over the next few months and so that's one of my suggestions why do you think it to be a bounce go through you know nothing moves in a straight line and that's what gold  been doing on the way down is bouncing and i think if there's a threat of higher interest rates oh we could see gold also bounce up with that happening here possibly next week ok and i'm going to come back to your comments around interest  term well you don't want to longer term basis i think if we've got a secular bull market on our hands that's going to last ten or fifteen years smaller stocks i think will work perform best and i have to say the technology and health care areas of the market are likely to lead the way to the upside if you're over the longer term ok now health care you are you including in health care pharma and by biotech  you biotech has just gone down quite a bit so what's your thoughts about healthcare biotech pharma well i do think it'll be it'll be all of healthcare but especially in the biotech area and the maybe the smaller biotech stocks where the growth potential is the best i think that's what we'll see best growth in the next ten to fifteen years so that's where i think the best opportunity would be if somebody wants to fine tune it a little bit i think bob you mentioned up  are going to be raised by the fed in december in fact i've seen the probability somewhere in the seventy five to eighty percent likelihood that that will happen i'm not so sure it's it's going to happen i think interest rates have been lower and until the he really does gain some much stronger footing that interest rates are likely to stay low so i'm not i don't think it's a big deal if the interest rates if the fed raises rates or not i think we're in a low interest rate environment overall that's probably going to persist for the next couple of years anyway ok ok and as connected to that what are your viewpoints on the dollar and the thoughts about the dollar yes and this could be one of the problems with trying to raise interest rates the dollar has been in a very strong right trend here for the last year and i think that's going to continue also i'd say the dollar really relative to other foreign currencies probably still has ten percent or more upside potential so i think that's go continue to pressure the fed to keep interest rates low ok and just more money that the overall foreign market is how will that interact with our strong dollar and the low interest rate environment foreign markets and especially emerging markets oh really that would be one of the places i'd be looking at you know emerging markets when you're talking long term growth that's certainly an area where you'd expect to see it if the rest of the world idea which areas you thought would perform well in the near term and in the long term in your market maps tool again on live eight and nine you show us ethen piece sectors and market indices  cycle positions and then you also hear was select groups cycle positions so can you talk a little your slide on market indices and help us understand how to interpret the data  the transports and the dow jones industrial average for that matter is early in an upward trend but meanwhile on the left side there i've got some of the areas of the market that are still looking for their bottoms and this would be some of the natural resource areas like that like the gold we mentioned and oil i think still have a ways to go before these are our longer term buys and then what i show on the next page is those groups those sectors and which groups appear to be gaining momentum and which are timely on a by side but you know this is a timing on this chart it just shows where they are in their trend and some of these groups could be in a up trader dahlan trend for a long period of time and i mean my i'm thirty years ok ok and you know i think it's a good time to mention that in addition to doing this program most of my viewers know i'm also a financial advisor with r b c wealth management and having said that you are the technical analyst that i follow and if any of our viewers would like to get information on market maps or get a copy of market map business i have figured something out and then one of the secrets to successful investing i think the mean secret is knowing when you're wrong and taking the appropriate steps to fix whatever might be wrong and so when i make a bad recommendation you can imagine how many people are following my work it's thousands it's scary to think of and so when i make a mistake when i recommend the wrong stock or the wrong thing to do and i realize it's a mistake i admit it and i fix it as soon as possible and that's what investors have to realize too if they're in something that isn't working or that's something's going on with one of their investments they should consider selling it and fixing that mistake before it becomes a disaster that's real important it's really great and so you may have to censor did but what do you think is the biggest mistake investors made in it in their investment decision react to what you're hearing on the newest and what happened today because that might not make much of a difference a year from now right so that's another thing is to is just a big share a little above what you react to in fact don't really have a play so that you don't have to react in between because that will make a big difference also if they devise a device by way at we we have come to the conclusion of our program i want to thank you again so much for being here and is there anything you like to say to our viewers either about investing overall are anything about two thousand and sixteen or something you know as we transition into the new year well next year is  you and your family happy holiday and thank you for being the guest on managing your well thank you save you play deborah