and the opposition increasingly took the form of street protests matters came to head in two thousand and five with the tulip revolution which resulted in the ouster of president high af and his replacement by president by kiev initially there were high hopes for democratic reform but in the last two years president by kiev has largely managed to quash the street politics which brought him to power and to consolidate his own position he created a political party that has effectively become the ruling party and the oas he described the two thousand and seven parliamentary elections as quote a missed opportunity falling short of public expectations for the further consolidation of the democratic election process close quote pre term presidential elections will be held on july twenty third even now however there is cause for concern both about the general state of democracy in kyrgyzstan and about the conduct of the upcoming elections kyrgyzstan's media used to be among the freest in the region but attacks on journalists have multiplied alarmingly a law passed last august restricts the right to demonstrate despite a court ruling that the bill with unconstitutional in january president by kiev signed a law on religion which complicates registration bans proselytizing and curtails the dissemination of religious material a draft angio law would impose strict registration requirements and prohibit political activities which could include such things as criticizing the government or training election observers various opposition figures have disappeared from the political scene either killed in a car accident jailed for alleged criminal acts or embarrassed by sex videos the election code was amended in january the key o s c recommendations were not taken on board and bishkek has place restrictions on the number of o s c observers i believe as an update to that that they have actually now dropped the ball if that question later on obviously there are grounds for concern about kyrgyzstan's general direction i hope our panelists will give us a reason to be more optimistic about the prospects for democracy in kyrgyzstan a country that congressman hastings has visited several hundred two and editor in chief led the struggle for a free press and an open society in kyrgyzstan her unrelenting criticism of corruption and authoritarian tendencies in the country's ruling elite resulted in her imprisonment and in repeated attempts to is the regional director for eurasia at the national democratic institute dr jewett has traveled extensively in eurasia meeting with political civic and government leaders to assess political conditions and design democracy assistance programs she earned a ph d in political science from columbia university and has served in washington on the staff of u s representative bill rochford and us senator christopher dodd of connecticut i would also like to welcome dr murat who has worked on a variety of research projects for the central asia caucus institute and taught in intensive course on central asian security she holds a ph d in political science from the university of bremen and an emmy and political sociology from central european university her book the military in the state and central asia from red army to independents will be published in august of this year so with that i will turn it over to you a efforts to seize government house the to seek revenge and return home and young power for this purpose is one it was used to bribe people so that they would come out to demonstrate on the public squares i'm not trying in any government up to and including the job of prime minister and in fact to the opposition leaders were prime minister for some time but subsequently left the job and i think for understandable reasons to some extent affected speaking on the current social political situation in the country i would like to quote the president of we see  investigated therefore it is hard to give any assessments but due to the openness of kyrgyzstan and impacts coming from many local and foreign political actors in the region as well as growing overcome the sad problems thank you for attention and open for questions thank you very much to it thank you thank you for this opportunity to comment on the political situation in kyrgyzstan in the run up to the election this election provides an opportunity to restore public confidence in the country's political institutions if conducted democratically the selection could give c citizens a meaningful choice among alternative visions for the future of their country we hope the government and people of character stan will seize this chance to engage constructively and democratically in an important political occasion we hope the international community for its part will throw its full weight into supporting a democratic process unfortunately there are reasons to be concerned about the conduct of the selection of kyrgyzstan has a history of florida elections and the rights of free speech and assembly have eroded in recent years there have already been reports of troubling incidents in the lead up to the election politicians journalists and ordinary citizens engaged in political activism have been beaten imprisoned and even killed in recent months contributing to a climate of fear and suspicion some even expressed a reluctance to vote saying they believe the results are pre determined so barring some extraordinary measures to build confidence voters may turn out to be skeptical of the results when they're announced on july twenty fourth or thereabouts the likely consequence of skepticism about electoral results is a government with a weak mandate which at best will have difficulty responding to citizens needs and cooperating with international partners and at worst will resort to harsh repressive measures at home to impose compliance for the coming election n d i will be supporting domestic and international election monitoring effort these efforts are aimed at contributing to the transparency of the process there are four key areas where the government of kyrgyzstan could take steps now that would improve the electoral environment and go a long way toward rebuilding fa in the process first the government of kyrgyzstan should provide conditions for balanced media coverage of the entire electoral process the government should allow state owned and independent media access to all aspects of the campaign voting counting in tabulation and post election procedures without ference or harassment the media should be allowed and encouraged to provide voters with information adequate to making an informed choice finally the government should allow the kirghiz service of radio free europe radio liberty one of the few independent and unbiased news services to resume broadcasting in the regions on the state radio frequency second the government should respect and protect the rights of domestic and international election observers the government and specifically election commissioner should ensure that domestic an international observers have full access to pre election election day and post election process these individual precincts and hire election commissions without harassment or intimidation as required in own election code the government should ensure that the pending draft law on regulating n g o s in kyrgyzstan is not used to impede domestic or international election monitoring efforts third the government should uphold the right of candidates to campaign partisan use of administrative resources during the campaign cain period or on election day must be prohibited the judicial process should not be used as a tool to keep opposition politicians from participating in the election when the official campaign period begins all candidates must be allowed to campaign without interference or harassment and on equal ground lastly the government should ensure that the current kirghiz law restricting the right to assembly is not used to limit candidates right to campaign and reach out to voters for the government should strictly enforce impartial and transparent election administration and adjudication the government should ensure that election commission ns are independent and include opposition representation at all levels the central election commission must ensure that local governments verify the accuracy of voter lists and post them at precinct election election commissions as required by law before election day the official electronic vote tabulation system should be checked to ensure that it functions properly and accurately on election day the government should ensure that official protocols are posted at each individual precinct and published in state newspapers to ensure that all voters and monitors have access to that information tabulation results should then be published by precincts in a timely manner finally electoral violations or complaints should be adjudicated fairly and without it ministry of interference or pressure progress in these four areas would contribute to public confidence not only in electoral procedures but also in the government and policies that emanate from them conversely little or no progress in these areas would contribute to the growing disconnect between the government and the people of kyrgyzstan right now a robust international defense of democratic rights is necessary to help prevent the latter outcome some have speculated that uncertainties over the fate of the air base have discouraged u s officials from engaging in public or private diplomacy in support of a democratic election and  that only a democratically elected government will be a reliable partner to the united states over the long run so support for a genuine process in july may be at least as valuable an investment as negotiations over the status of the base and the i hopes that members of congress and representatives of the u s government will take every opportunity to raise these recommendations with their kirghiz counterparts for the election and to hold the government accountable to its c e o and other international commitments finally india i appreciate the efforts of congress to support the people of kyrgyzstan in establishing a full democracy the rule of law and respect for political and civil rights thank you  early presidential elections i will also discuss the strategy is being pursued by the president and opposition members in the run up to the elections my goal today is to demonstrate that kyrgyzstan is ruled by a small group of political  leaders who are interested and advancing their own business interests i intend to show the domestic and foreign policy decisions of the curious regime have been driven by the desire of self preservation both upcoming elections and by key of february decision to the outcome of the elections is predictable was the government following a familiar pattern of suppressing opposition forces and freedom of speech approximately one month before the election day kyrgyzstan curious nothing comment leader has clearly emerged as its most likely winner the president has managed to strengthen his personal leverage over the parliament the central elections commission as well as security structures the opposite forces in the meantime have been increasingly fragmented and inconsistent however as time passed the opposition's hopes for ousting back here have made it a series of violent attacks against opposition members and journalists law suits and even political thousand asians have exposed to retain his grip on power today some a position members appear resigned to keep winning the forthcoming election during his four year but he has gradually expanded his powers the president changed the constitution carried out early parliamentary elections in december two thousand and seven and increased conclusive control over security structures before announcing the date of the presidential elections the parliament composed mostly of heroes of pro presidential party of joel  has altered legislation to allow defense forces intervene into internal affairs furthermore the parliament increased government control over mass media and geos but he if previous of control of security structures and state leaders collaboration with criminal groups is most alarming those tendencies remind political opponents that more aggressive actions could be taking against them in the past year but he appointed his brother some of the family members of the key of this interest family competition over culture politics and control of business businesses creates chaos in the country's political any economic demeans those relatives relatives of president bakiev are notorious for collaborating with criminal groups to exert influence due to the state crime nexus five members of parliament have been assassinated in the past four and believe that other cool of was killed for his alleged plan to support the opposition furthermore in march a journalist and member of opposition party got a bill dive were severely beaten by a opposition leaders try to gather support using tired and old arguments of ethnocentric cause for peter to them and promises to establish a clean government to date the united opposition movement which is comprised of several opposition parties has been unable to demonstrate how and whether it will become a real challenge but key of achieving unity at the elections was the main goal for that for the movement however position forces a fractious and divided two candidates from leaders who would genuinely understand the importance of democracy as well as the importance of building a stable state an open society ahead of own ambition to date neither of the two opposition candidates communicated any policies they intend to introduce if elected in a desperate search for support some opposition leaders called for mobilizing crowds to protest against the current regime current regime on the basis of courageous ethnic identity their reluctance to formulate strategies beyond backed by any realistic suggestion for economic development development or establishing a just government several several fields anti government demonstrations in the past two years diminish the hopes of many for change aside the presidential election demonstrated wasn't presidential elections represent a considerable financial challenge for any opposition candidate the candidates will have to combat party on all levels starting from of the candidates would gain enough votes to win elections outright in the first round i think but keefe will try to present favorable results in the first round of elections similar to his other central asian counterparts who usually win elections by more than ninety percent in the foreign policy domain but he strives to maintain a balance between promises me to russia in positive relations with the united states however any point policy decision is the term and first and foremost by desire to stay in power but kiev has been has been conducting politics of highest possible return searching for the better bargain from the united states or russia or any other in conclusion i would like to say that under bakiev the regime we can expect a little change towards democracy this time it will take another round of parliamentary and presidential elections in constitutional changes to improve the however to prevent further deterioration of situation insure against the united states and international community must focus on the following first the us government and international community must be careful in assisting the courageous government with loans and investments second the killings between the regimes financial interests and policy decisions must be investigated further third regime holders collaboration with criminal groups to advance their own interests must be investigated breaking the state kyrgyzstan could potentially enhance the rule of law free political leaders from dependence on criminal actors and discourage people with criminal backgrounds from entering politics thank you very much for your tension thank you very much before we move on to questions i just wanted to ask if any of the panelists would like to respond to what other panelists have said ok i'll start off full of first questions before we open it up to the the audience for questions my first question would be for ambassadors for the korea there's been several criticisms including today of recent elections in kyrgyzstan one of the most important issues that was criticised was transparency which as was said of course affects the trust of the voters in the in the process in the two thousand and seven parliamentary elections the o s c said there were significant discrepancies between the preliminary results and the final results the release of the final results was delayed and the results of the broken down by polling station were never release this was particularly disturbing as international observers reported that the most problems came during the counting process so not releasing the counts broken down by polling station made it impossible to check if it's very welcome the invitations to double the number of observers i think that's a very positive step and what's important in addition to that is giving those international observers and also the domestic observers access to all steps in the process including the tabulation that happens at the district election commissions and higher and that's clearly a role for domestic observers but also international observers as well time for this program and they couldn't pay for the ear that's why they didn't officially claim about that matter and it's just the prob suffering from the economic crisis because its economy was also in a fragile state and corruption seems only to have deepened how much will these issues be weighing on the minds of the voters what's the take that one erica as far as i know some opposition leaders thought that ongoing energy crisis could help them mobilize crowds and help them to protest you know help them i believe we will never find out unless we have we have results you know the correct results revealed we will not not find out because i think the election results will be falsified and there is no way of seeing what was will they're watching their opposite of course possibilities to see how how the population vote it but when if we don't focus groups in kyrgyzstan and one of the major findings janice was that people are very concerned about corruption so i think it will weigh heavily on voters minds some of the comments where that corruption in all spheres has grown over the period of the last two or three years people believe that there should be harsh punishment for corrupt officials and people in these focus groups proposed as many measures for tackling corruption more publicity more transparency and requirements for following procedures and people noted that the low salaries of government officials contribute to corruption so i think it was a big issue on on everyone's mind set up for for two years and two for us government to try to you know to change the system and to improve the situation thank you a follow up question dr murat mentioned the apathy of voters and i was wondering this question everybody can answer it again how do you explain why street politics which has been such a characteristic of the country for years now seems to have ceased or  they were basically they were they were a feeler very often and second of all is of course a number of laws introduced by the kiev government in parl instance and all sorts of different filters for organizers of democratic demonstrations were introduced such as also for instance requesting permission to organize demonstrations several days in advance so there's two factors first the opposition's own when mistakes and the government restrictions they contributed a lot to this apathy the population i think anyone else like to respond to that ok i think at this point i'd like to see if we have any questions from the audience liked to have a bit of a discussion here and if you would come up we have a microphone here you can introduce yourselves and ask your question yeah it should be on hi john comment from some of the office of senator roger wicker i was wondering if the panelists could comment perhaps on the attitude of the regional powers toward the forthcoming election we'd like to take that one n because there was the so called tulip revolution in two thousand and five and there is concern there remains concern throughout the region that  another color revolution is possible so kyrgyzstan i think would be watched closely for that reason there has been much speculation about  connections between the president by kiev visit to russia the offer of a sizeable loan to carry on the request or demand for the us to leave them and airbase and this election it's not possible for me to connect all of those dots but there there is a lot of speculation that all of them may be connected in some way so i guess to sum up i would think i would think there is there is great interest among the neighboring countries about how this election proceeds and what its outcome will be ok you have any other questions then daily oversight subcommittee of foreign affairs i was hoping that maybe you could touch a little bit more on a comment made by dr murray that with regards to the closure of the u s air base in manassas on my right she stated in  opening comment that that was a direct result of the some of president by kiev's personal motives or business motives of his small political party what did the other panelists think of that and what what are their speculations as to the motives of this incident has a great challenge in trying to balance its relationships with a lot of a number of large and powerful countries russia and the united states among them and i do not envy them that challenge and the competing demands that they feel but i what president bakiev personal motives were i i wouldn't want to speculate very directly about the the elections the former chair of the central election committee mrs beale of fled kyrgyzstan last fall claiming that president barchi of sun had pressured her during a local election and other understand she recently retracted her accusation there are many reasons of course why she might have done that my question is do you all think that the central locked world commission is unbiased or do you think it may be getting pressure from the ruling party the actions of the central election commission in past elections have been called into question and i'm not aware that there have been major changes in the composition of election commissions at all levels sufficient to allay those concerns thank you i'll be going out myself i hope is and election observer with the i o c parliamentary assembly and i wondered if any of you had advice on what specifically what are some of the main issues that the international observers should be looking for while they're there yes we do i would certainly encourage you to spend time talking with domestic election observers both the nonpartisan observers and observers from political parties all political parties  both the pro government and opposition parties and on election day i think it will be very important to observe to monitor whether all observers do have access to all parts of the process not just in the in the precincts but as the tabulation occurs going up the chain it will be important  the pre election period to observe the media coverage and whether it is unbiased and whether all candidates have an opportunity to present their points of  view and it will be important to talk with the campaigns about whether they have had opportunities to for their candidate and the candidates allies to campaign freely and gather with voters throughout the campaign period thank you anyone else you know i have one more election related question if the opposition were to contest the election as being not free and not fair do you think there would be any public reaction to that in kyrgyzstan yes from the voters i think it will be up to the people of kyrgyzstan to decide how they would handle that situation but i think it's fair to say that there is already as i mentioned skepticism among kirghiz voters about electoral procedures so if there are extraordinary steps taken now to improve the process then i think it's likely that voters would have confidence in the official results whether or not the opposition accepts them but if the voters themselves don't feel that the process is transparent or fair  then it won't matter what the opposition says i think people are likely to protest very often a list of voters is outdated they do not have a lot of names you know they have a lot of people registered  who are not living in this or that particular village or town but are living in or kazakhstan or russia and this does give some leave and parliamentary election elections in two thousand and seven that no matter how loud the regime regime's opponents are no matter how much the regime promises how much how much interest there and see how much transparency sorry the regime promises and how many observers the regime the government invites the outcome is always always  always favors the regime itself so and there is a certain my my my my my feeling is that there is a and again this might be very subjective but there is  apathy among curious voters about the upcoming elections and many curious citizens are sort of you know there is not with the urgency just agree with the possibility that the q will be reelected again thank you thank you and just check and see if there's anyone in the audience who's out of the question in the meantime they'd like to ask know ok well i think we'll go ahead and wrap up at this point then i'd like to very much thank our panelists for precipitating and i'd like to apologize once again that we did not have our members here we had at least fo that had wanted to come in in particular to hastings very much wanted to come but unfortunately while we've been here there's been about twenty eight votes going on and so unfortunately that means a bit a bit hard to figure out here mr hastings a statement is on the table so i hope you pick a copy up on the way out thank you very much