on this vote the yeas are two hundred seventy six the navy one hundred and forty and the all bill is passed without objection a motion to reconsider is laid on the table resolution providing for consideration up until h r thirty seven before making appropriations for the department of transportation and housing and urban development and related agencies for the fiscal year ending september thirtieth two thousand and eight and for other purposes one minute for the purpose of inquiring about next week's schedule without objection i thank the speaker now yield my good friend from maryland the majority leader for information about the schedule and the speaker i do i'd like to ask  we have enough for that the gentleman could be heard in that i could hear him the house will be in order lease take your car most of the gallery suspension of the rules a list of those bills of course will be announced by the end of the week we expect to begin consideration of the fiscal year zero eight transportation but appropriation bill let me reiterate that because that will require a vote on the rule so that there will be a substantive and perhaps more substantive vote on monday so members cannot be assured that there will not be controversies on the floor on monday night addition of completing consideration of the transportation hud bill we continue one additional fiscal year but wait authorization bill the commerce justice science as well as the farm program reauthorization jane i thank the gentleman that information i notice that there is no listing at this point of an iraq bill on next week's schedule i also noticed that pfizer modernization has not been scheduled i wonder if the gentleman has any information about the potential for either of those two issues to be on the schedule for next week i'm not sure that face to face authorization as the gentleman knows or some very important issues before we leave here on the other i think it's possible that we will have some legislation dealing with iraq but that decision has not been made  obviously there is still ongoing discussion both in the senate and in this body on that subject but whether they'll be legislation next week is still in discussion well i thank the gentleman for that of course just ask that  if when that decision is made at the quicker we could be told what the decision is and get a sense of the schedule on that issue the better also i had one one question the gentleman might have information on on the conference on the nine eleven bill earlier this week it appeared that the protection that the house had added for liability in what was called the the john doe action where if you suggest someone you think is pursuing a dangerous course of action you turn them in then you're personally held liable we had some protections added t bill on that i'm told that the chairman of the conference a member the other body has now said that he believes those protections would be germane and if they're germane we'd hope that we continue to see an argument in favor of that but i wonder if the leader has any information on that tell my friend that i do not have any immediate information on that particular issue i know the issue but what where it is i'm not  eleven conferences the gentleman knows and passing that before we leave here for the august break that i would ask on conferences in a press report this week there was a suggestion by a fact i think it was today that the ethics bill might come to the house under an extraordinary procedure that didn't actually involve a conference i think the house changed its rules this year to be much more stringent on requiring a conference and i'm wondering if that report has any merit to it that the gentleman would be aware of  but there's no decision been made on on that i just what would suggest the gentleman that we have changed the rules in a way that while that particular messag between the two houses has seldom been used i think it's even harder to do in light of the house rules changes and we would hope that these bills are done in conference and of course hope down in the cot done in conference in accordance with the rules that this congress has proposed for four conferences where my friend you know i would we are very very hopeful that the lobbying disclosure conference proceed as the gentleman knows we have not gotten clearance on the other side to do so so we are very concerned about that and this house passed a lobbying disclosure bill lays before the house the following message to the congress of the united states section two zero two d of the national emergencies act provides for the automatic terminations of a national emergency unless prior to the anniversary date of its declaration the president publishes in the federal register and transmits to the congress a notice stating that the emergency is to continue and in fact be on the anniversary date in accordance with this provision i have sent the enclosed notice to the federal register for publication stating that the national emergency and related measure dealing with the former liberian regime of charles taylor are to continue any facts beyond july twenty second two thousand and seven the actions and policies of former liberian president charles taylor and other persons in particular their unlawful depletion of liberian resources their trafficking of illegal arms and their formation of irregular militia continue to undermine liberia's trance act the transition to democracy and the orderly development of its political administration and canonic institutions and resources for these reasons i have determined that it is necessary to continue the national emergency with respect to the former liberian liberian regime of charles taylor signed george w bush the white house july nineteenth two thousand and seven he ferde to the committee on foreign affairs and ordered printed the speaker we have heard this week in publicized reports of the activities that are going on around the world with respect to al national intelligence estimate has indicated publicly non classified information that this group is franchising it means that they're able to spread without leadership around the world and those who have followed the iraq war recognize that it is a training ground for those terrorists with and leave and spread their viciousness around the world we've heard this week prime maliki indicating that out soldiers could leave he ultimately said he was misinterpreted but frankly i believe mr speaker it is time for our soldiers to be redeployed out of iraq and that a under the speaker's announced policy of january eighteenth two thousand and seven and under a previous order of the house the following members are recognized for five minutes each mr jones from north carolina for what purposes tragic occasion still ripples throughout the greek and cypriot communities this anniversary is a time for america to solemnly remember the turkish military invasion of the island of cyprus to mourn those who lost their lives and to condemn the continued occupation on july twenty seventh one thousand nine hundred seventy four and blatant violation of the international law turkey violently and vedas cyprus and capture the northern part of the island as a result of the invasion approximately five thousand cypriots were killed and more than fourteen hundred greek cypriots including four americans of cypriot descent are still missing since the invasion turkey has established a heavily armed military occupation that continues to control nearly forty percent of cyprus forced expulsions of greek cypriots on the occupied land have left more than  hundred sixty thousand this place persons another tragic result of this thirty three year occupation is the division of the greek and turkish cypriots who since have forcibly left their homes this cracking of the cypriot nation is a crime against society and the people of cyprus that can only be resolved by ending this occupation since the invasion international governing bodies and rights groups have condemned turkey's flagrant abuse of international law and violation of cypresses national sovereignty mr speaker thirty three years is just too long the international community has helped shepherd a peace process and settlement that will unite the island its people and institutions and economy the united nations security council the european union the united states have all play key roles in trying to bring a practical and fair resolution of this story three year nightmare on the occasion of this anniversary america needs to take a long and hard look at its own commitment toward helping turkish cypriot this turkish cypriot crisis reach a lasting and enduring peace free from occupation division and oppression as a new member of their european unit the republic of cyprus has proven committed and influential partner in europe despite having a large portion of its land illegally occupied cyprus a successful social and economic integration to the european community is a testament to  focus and dedication to democratic values and regional cooperation the republic of cyprus has also worked alongside its european neighbors to bring about a stronger integration of turkish and greek cypriot interests for the good of the island this has included a partial lifting on restriction of movement across the ceasefire line that continues to forcibly divide cyprus as a result since april two thousand and three more than thirteen million greek and turkish cypriots have crossed without incident incredible additionally the per capita capita income of turkish cypriots has nearly tripled in the last three years because of an aggressive integration policy by the republic of cyprus and its european neighbors mr speaker i believe that because of this continued integration between turkish and greek cypriots and the economic and political successes that the republic of cyprus so readily wants to share with us neighbors it is possible to bring closure to this thirty three year occupation and deed on july then into turkey's military occupation despite the early success of what has since been known as the july eighth agreement and the best efforts of the cypriot the cypriot government the turkish cypriots have not follow through let's resolve this issue mr speaker thirty three years is too long thank you very much mr sarbanes for what purposes in arise i don't recognize in five minutes mr speaker i rise today to mark the thirty third year since the invasion and subsequent occupation of the island of cyprus since one nine hundred seventy four turkish military forces have illegally occupied the northern part of the island forcibly dividing communities and depriving a nation of its cultural heritage and peaceful existence the turkish invasion of cyprus physically separated the greek cypriot community and turkish cypriot community along ethnic lines for the first time in the island's nation's history the unlawful occupation of thirty seven percent of the territory of cyprus continues unabated to this day there are currently forty three thousand turkish troops garrison in the occupied areas and turkey has resettled nearly one hundred thousand mainland turkish citizens into those areas that continue turkish shock patient of cypr stops the greek and turkish cypriot communities from building national institutions from building intercommunal trust and from promoting the diversity and unique uniqueness of a truly cypriot culture  of cypriots continue to be refugees in their own land blocks from the homes in the communities they inhabited for generations some have been marooned in tiny enclaves trapped by the occupation forces cut off from the outside world and basic human rights and a new generation of cypriots has inherited the terrible dislocation that military occupation brings in the face of all this the greek  of the republic of cyprus have struggled and succeeded in building a strong society one whose economic progress development of democratic institutions and capable governance has led to membership in the european union in may two thousand and four sadly until there is an end to the occupation the reunification of the island under a bi communal by zonal federation will be impossible and the occupied areas of cyprus will be denied the full benefits of the e u membership for the united states there is a clear imperative to resolve the situation in cyprus as a matter of justice and the rule of law principles we hold dear but beyond that achieving reunification of the island is critical to the strategic interests of the united states the cyprus problem pits american allies against one another the strategic interest in facilitating a negotiate good settlement significant for the region but also for the world cyprus can either fester as a potential flashpoint or become a starting point for reconciliation today we have a new opportunity the opportunity for reconciliation is real since i pursued entry into the e u the borders between the occupied areas have been partially opened and there been more than twelve million crossings of greek and cypriot greek and turkish without serious incident turkish cypriots crossed into the republic of cyprus every day to go to work approximately thirty five thousand turkish cypriots have applied for and received passports from the republic the people of the island excuse me the people of the island want reunification to occur the turkish government now must demonstrate a legitimate will to participate with good faith in u s and u n mediated efforts to resolve this conflict perpetuating the status quo hurts not only greek and turkish cypriots but the nation of turkey and its relation to the united states and to the world mr speaker we have in place brokered by the u n a workable framework for reunification the so called july agreement reached in two thousand and six calls for an immediate initiation of comprehensive negotiations on two different levels one that addresses everyday issues to build confidence and momentum and the other addressing more serious disputes over territorial and power sharing arrangements in the perspective federal state this agreement is a real way forward to the within a bi zonal by communal federation but a year has passed and the process as laid out by the un has yet to be meaningfully engaged by the turkish representatives it should not fall any longer as m speaker i rise to address the prescription drug user fee act better known as producer express and to express my concern about the path this congress took to reauthorize it for the next five years as we all know this is an important law fact ing millions of americans and their health every day we have an obligation to examine it closely and debated in great depth yet by considering the bill under suspension this congress has neither explored nor understood its full ramifications as we move ahead  powerful reforms and poses still greater challenges there's a lot to be proud of in the bill adding new transparency providing new resources to ensure the safety of the drugs and devices that we count on every day to fight disease and to stay healthy to be sure it is certainly stronger than the bill that passed on the senate side and that is a good thing to still expands the f d a is ability to monitor the safety of drugs and medical devices it devices after they have been approved and marketed increasing by two hundred twenty five million dollars over five years a huge rift easy agency can use for post market safety monitoring the f d a would be required to revisit the drug several years later for further analysis and for riskier drugs there would be a regulation limiting prescribing authority to train physicians in addition by providing funds for the active analysis of large medical databases this bill also helps us quickly detect drugs with major short and long term safety problems however there are significant improvements we could have made to the bill if it were taken up under regular order and amendments were debated this bill for example does not provide any mandatory recall authority for the f d a to immediately pull products off the shelves after they have been found to be dangerous i do not need to remind my colleagues that many of the high profile drugs recently taken off the market had to be removed voluntarily and that was only after significant damage had already been done so  colleagues to look at this bill a little closer you will get an idea of just how much influence the drug industry has on this congress indeed there are a number of very strong provisions in the original subcommittee draft bill there were unjustifiably weaken during the markup process for instance as bill creates a new risk evaluation and mitigation strategy for new drugs that would create specific requirements and criteria for each drug under the original draft drug or device companies would have been subjected to a twenty million dollar maximum fine for single violation and one hundred million dollar maximum fine for several violations these figures were reduced however to two hundred fifty thousand dollars and one million as the bill moved forward as you know this is mere pocket change for drug companies and provides virtually no deterrent to companies that choose to ignore the new process in addition the original draft would have granted the f d a discretion to ban director consumer advertising for a new drug for up to three years yet this provision was weakened as well making it completely voluntary while giving the f d a zero authority to require changes worse still if a drug company chooses to volunteer for the review system and pays a fig it can run its advertisement regardless rendering the system utterly utterly useless and finally when it comes to addressing significant conflicts of interest that the f d a the language years actually weaker than what the f d a itself proposed earlier this year the agency in fact would have prevented any members with conflicts of interest from voting on an advisory panel and would have prevented any member with more than five thousand dollars worth of investments from even serving on the panel this bill however allows the f d a to grant waivers overriding its already lenient current conflict of interest rules today the pharmaceutical industry argued that interaction between drug companies and doctors who serve on these advisory committee job beneficial well we know it is beneficial to the drug companies it's time to end the influence drug companies have in our doctors offices and at the f d a by providing additional resources and boosting the f d a post mark richer valence activity this bill takes us in the right direction but we got here the wrong way under suspension of the rules and as a result with no debate and no amendments the final legislation serves the american people poorly it is no surprise that drug companies are always working to improve their bottom line the are big businesses with stockholders to please but we have an even bigger responsibility to meet we have a tremendous obligation to protect the public health and to ensure a safe some of those who oppose that action argue that bringing our troops home out of iraq will increase the violence there and perhaps even lead to a humanitarian catastrophe but what they forget or choose to ignore is that a humanitarian catastrophe has already occurred in iraq and it's getting worse every day that catastrophe includes the refugee crisis in that devastated nation last week the united states committee on refugees reported that the number of refugees in the world rose last year to its highest level since two thousand and one and one of the main reasons was the great exodus from iraq all told more than two million iraqis have been forced to flee their country and close to two million more have been displaced internally that's a total mr speaker of four million refugees fifty percent of whom are children and tens of thousands more are leaving every single month many of the refugees are in dire straits recently united nations inspectors visited one refugee camp and found more than two thousand people living in camps they had no clothes except for the clothes on their backs they had no medical care they had no drinkable water they had no toilets many of the children had typhoid and other illnesses and were living amongst mates and scorpions sweden to its great credit is accepting more than one thousand refugees every month and the population of sweden is only nine million people the united states with a population of three hundred million except it only two hundred two last year not two hundred two thousand but two hundred and two and we've accepted only somewhere around seven hundred since our occupation of iraq began that is a disgraceful record and every member of this house should feel ashamed that goes for all of us those who support the war and those who oppose that we may disagree about policy but surely we can agree that we have a moral obligation to do more about a terrible refugee problem that our occupation has created after all many of the refugees have had to flee because they cooperated with our troops in the first place or they cooperated with american contractors we can't turn our backs on them now that's why i'm urging all of my colleagues to support h r twenty two sixty five the responsibility to iraq refugees act of two thousand and seven sponsored by representative blum an hour along with representatives shays and representatives to kosky i especially challenge those members who want our occupation of iraq to continue to support this bill don't just warn us about a humanitarian crisis do something about the one that already exists the bill would provide special immigrant status to fifteen thousand iraqis every year for four years the bill would also provide a safe haven for at least twenty thousand more iraqis including children who have been left all alone in the world giving each young people a chance in life is not only honorable it's smart because these impoverished children could become prime targets for recruitment by terrorists to me this bill represents the true heart of america the good and caring heart that has compassion for the people of the world but our leaders do not seem to share this compassion recently for example former u n ambassador john bolton denied that the united states has any responsibility for the refugee crisis he said and i quote him our obligation was to give the iraqis new institutions and provide security we have fulfilled that obligation i don't think we have an obligation to compensate for the hardships of war unquote this is the kind of arrogance misspeak or that has destroyed america's reputation and credibility around the world we must reclaim our moral leadership and we can start by helping iraqi refugees is a right thing to do it's the right thing to do as we bring our troops home i yield back us thank you mr speaker americans are aching for leadership to end the war in iraq instead they find the president and his enablers in the house and senate doing everything they can to block legislation that will require him to bring the troops home by a date certain each day seems to bring some new proposal that purports to be progress on examination however they leave the president free to pursue is discredited policies and service diversionary tactics by politicians searching for cover one proposal calls for the president to submit a plan by mid october to narrow the use of u s troops in iraq to fighting terrorists and securing borders and u s interests it won't bring home a single american serviceman or woman another proposal seeks to change the mission of american forces but doesn't guarantee when or even if there redeployment will begin supporters of changing the mission claimed it would result in troop reductions but they offer no evidence of that americans will remain the targets of violence and u s policy will continue to sow resentment in the muslim world in my opinion changing the mission is the war supporters latest excuse to avoid decisive action to bring the war to conclusion this is not the leadership the american people expect and that our national security demands the failure of the president's surge strategy means that it has lost the ability to shape events in iraq in a positive direction only by redeploying our forces from iraq can we rebuild our depleted military restore our global reputation and redirect resources to fight al qaeda just last week the national counterterrorism center reported that al qaeda has regrouped in the afghanistan pakistan border region enabled by the president's diversion of resources to iraq i opposed the iraq war from the start and i take no comfort in the fact that many of my most ominous predictions have proven true in a september sixth two thousand and two op ed in the portland press herald i predicted that the war would be fought quote in city streets filled with civilians making procession bombs useless and casualties high it will cost billions to wage the war and billions more to rebuild america has suffered nearly thirty thousand casualties in clude ing more than thirty six hundred combat deaths the war has cost half a trillion dollars resulting in huge deficit that will brute burden our children's future on october eighth two thousand and two during the house debate on the war resolution i said if the us acts unilaterally or with just a few other nations there is a far higher risk of fueling resentment in arab and muslim nations and swelling the ranks of the anti us terrorists unfortunately this is exactly what has happened i voted against the war and have been an outspoken critic of the case made to justify it the mismanagement of the occupation and the failure to hold the administration accountable for its so many mistakes more than eighteen months ago i called for a deadline to redeploy our forces a firm deadline was and is the best way to end the u involvement in iraq and force the iraqis to assume responsibility for their own security as former maine senator george mitchell demonstrated in his northern ireland diplomacy a firm deadline can be a very effective way to get parties in conflict to compromise their differences nothing but the force of law will move president bush to alter his stay the course strategy non binding resolutions are not sufficient to compel a real change in policy and get us out of iraq this president is stubbornly determined to delay the inevitable at the cost of additional precious american lives more than six hundred of our troops have died since the surge began the other costs include greater hatred of the us in the islamic world more terrorists inspired by that hatred and with our armed forces stretched to the breaking point greater insecurity for our nation unless members of congress who supported president bush's war policy steadfastly for five years stop looking for cover and do the right thing the president will prevail and our troops will remain in iraq our armed forces have done all that we asked of them and have performed their mission with great skill and courage president bush will keep our troops in the crossfire of the iraqi civil war until congress sets binding dates for their redeployment that action represents the leadership needed to bring our troops safely home mr speaker i yield back the balance of my time the gentleman's reckon has five minutes or less thank you misspeak or on the third of july in my hometown of memphis tennessee i discovered that there was ice that was being disposed of by being dumped down on a drive why were more  when they didn't have enough ice to try to compensate they bought way way way too much ice have discovered that famous spent in purchasing and transporting and storing in twenty three different american cities mr speaker sixty seven million dollars of our taxpayers money and fame is now spending nearly four million dollars to dispose of that ice over a period of eleven months that mean seventy million dollars of american taxpayer dollars going down the drain that's not the way an american government or any government should work any business should work or what americans should expect of their government fortunately this democratic congress is doing what legislative branches are supposed to do oversight we've lacked oversight for the last six years mr speaker and faults of the ministration have gone unnoticed but as i serve on the subcommittee that deals with them i will see to it that august twenty ninth when that subcommittee meets in new orleans on the second anniversary of that horrendous event hurricane katrina that we will ask the director of fame and others about their programs of why they buy excess commodities in excess ice of why they spend seventy million dollars of american taxpayers money on an ice folly and why they didn't try to dispose of that ice during that period of time when it had a useful shelf life and give it to five hundred one c three charities federal state or county government institutions so it could be used and utilized by american people who could have used that ice and save some money the same thing happens with commodities and chairman eleanor holmes norton the chairman of that subcommittee had a hearing on food distribution and commodities where fame had wasted other precious commodities and dollars mr speaker this needs to stop our tax dollars are valuable and people expect our government to do right with their tax dollars i will not stand by and when i see this incompetence when i see inefficiencies when i see an effective use of tax dollars i will speak up and i'm fortunate to be on the subcommittee to ask the questions on august twenty ninth the theme of it seems like the horrendous of events that we had when brownie didn't know what he was doing and the people in the walls were left in a tragic circumstance or replicate themselves thema has not been cleaned up and we will try to see that famous spends our money properly and responds properly they haven't responded the american people they haven't responded to congress and this is a wrong that needs to be righted mr speaker i thank you for the time and i yield the balance of my time back to the chair under the speaker's announced policy of january eighteenth two thousand and seven the gentleman from maryland mr bartlett is recognized for sixty minutes as the designee of the minority leader thank you very much mr speaker just in the last couple of days a very important report that was asked for by the energy department has been made public this is the fourth entity that has been asked to study this subject one of these entities the s a i c the large prestigious international corporation has submitted really three reports but they're just one organization these are called the first reports and you might refer them as one two and three and a little later this evening i will note some quotes from the h report this was in february of two thousand and five in september of two two thousand and five the corps of engineers in response to a request by the army issued a report energy trends and their implication for u s army installations when you read that report mr chairman you might substitute the united states or world for that matter instead of the army and it would be just as applicable to clearly our army is a microcosm of the united states and the and the world and then there was a third study which came out of in march of this year and this was a study done by the government accountability office threw my position on the science committee i asked for this study and it was completed and it was made public the twenty ninth of march this year all three of these studies had the same message in a little later we'll look at some of those messages well i have one here from it from the hersh report world oil peaking is going to happen the world has never faced a problem like this without massive mitigation more than a decade before the fact the problem will be pervasive and will not be temporary previous energy transitions would the coal and coal to oil were gradual and evolutionary oil peaking will be abrupt and revolutionary and common every day english what these three studies have indicated is that peaking of oil is imminent present or imminent with potentially devastating consequences just in the last couple of days there's been a fourth and indeed that's published a report this one quested by the department of energy as was the first on the hearst report and this one by the national petroleum county  council national petroleum council has done a very large study involved a lot of of experts in the world and they have just issued their report today i was very pleased that several of the key members of the study came to my office and we had a very productive discussion of their report my concern was that although one could not argue with any specific sentence in the report that the report certainly was not and my view and i think the view of any casual reader was not the clarion call for action that the other reports were but will have a chance of ceding to look a little more at that to that report there was a talk given fifty years ago the fourteenth day of last month by the father of our nuclear submarine hyman rickover he gave this talk to a group of physicians in st paul minnesota and those of you who are computer literate can do a google search and just ask seven a bit more than a month ago a couple of months ago there is nothing man can do to rebuild exhausted fossil fuel reserves he says they were created by solar energy he says five hundred million years ago and took eons to grow to their present volume in the face of the basic fact that fossil fuel reserves are finite the exact length of time these reserves will last is important in only one respect the longer they last the more time that we have to invent ways of living off renewable or substitute energy sources there have been a number of interesting articles in the public media and the last few weeks one of them was in the new york times in june thirty boil giant sees some the question he was asked was according to the department of energy the united states will consume twenty eight percent more oil and one hundred percent more natural gas in twenty thirty than it did in two thousand and five where will we find all that oil and gas and this is his answer i question whether the supply will be developed to meet these demand expectations i believe demand is going to be constrained by supply what he is saying is that the future is not going to be like the past because in the past we always have been able to find the additional production when we needed it it was only one time when that was not true for a little while and that was in the seventy's when the opec oil producing countries were limiting their exports to us and that created not only in this country but worldwide a recession as a result of that temporary risk direction in providing the full amount of oil that the world's economies would like to use in march twenty five in the washington post it was a very interesting article it wasn't titled corn can't solve our problem and you know there's been a lot of interest in corn ethanol the eighty five and putting ten percent in our gasoline and so forth and they made the observation that if we took all of our seventy million acres of corn and planted it to all our corn and use that corn to produce  and recognize the fact that there's a big fossil fuel input into producing the ethanol and if you discounted the energy contribution from the ethanol by the f l fuels it took to produce that it would displace two point four percent of our gasoline and a reilly noted in the article that if you tuned up your car and put  air in the tires you could save as much gas the believe is in the same article that they talk about what we might do with non corn land and planting and they thought there was maybe sixty million acres of that in the conservation reserve this is not as good a land as we're planting now it's land that's kind of marginal for crop production and so with some incentives from the government our farmers have put that in what's called conservation reserve if we took that out of ethanol production and so forth as we would get from our corn now because that with the last fossil fuel input to this the net might be great or it might be as much as ten percent or so but i don't know whether they looked at the sustainability of this because if you look at a patch of weeds to at least some extent and in some places to a very large extent this year's weeds are growing because last years we died and are fertilizing them we see this dynamic really exhibited in our rainforests which one would suspect would would represent the product of really good soils because there is so much growing in our rainforest but when you take all of the trees vines and so forth that are growing in the rainforest away you've taken almost all the nutrients away and you have very thin soils in many places that they carved in the sun they're called later soils and this reflects the fact that in the rain forest almost all the nutrients are in the process of sprouting and growing and dying and rotting so that the plants that are now sprouting and growing are fed by those plants which have reached their maturity and are now and are now the cane so almost all of these nutrients are in this cycle this is true even in our even our grass plans we're not forcing fertilizer on them and grasses continue to grow but at least to some extent this year's grass roots are growing because last year's grasses died and  fertilizing them there's been a lot of interest in some and credibly large potential reserves of of oil like deposits that we have in our west which we shales and the study was done by rand corp hoyle shell development in the united states prospects and policy issues and  they say that currently no organization with the management technical and financial wherewithal to develop oil shale resources has announced its intent to build commercial style production facilities a firm decision to commit funds  such a venture is that least six years away they say and consequently at least twelve and possibly possibly more years will last before all shell development will reach the production growth phase that is after the six years to make a decision to be another six years in building the facilities we're going to run through some slides now some charts and it will put some of the things that i've been talking about all of this is current by the way also a considerable interest to me what is a couple of nights ago both of the later hours one of which i'm occupying this evening both of those on the floor here both the republican or in the democrat our were filled with with discussions of of energy primarily a discussion of of oil and liquid fuels and the fact that oil was and is seventy five dollars a barrel and gasoline is three dollars a bushel let's turn to our first chart here this is an interesting a little cartoon here the fellow is at the pump and he says just why it's gas so expensive and i think you can see the labels here the pump is labeled supply and it's pretty small and his s u v is labeled demand and it's really big and of course the reason that oil is seventy five dollars a barrel and gas is three dollars a gallon is because the demand is exceeding the readily available supply one of my colleagues said one of his constituents had called him and said what can you do to reduce the price of gasoline i told him tell your constituents to drive less you see the reason that gasoline is three dollars a gallon is because we would like to use more gasoline that is readily available and in our supply and demand  economy what this means is when the supply is constrained in the demand it's large that the price goes up and of course the price of oil is going up the next charge is a very interesting one and this next chart  takes a look at what the world would look like if the size of the country was relative to the amount of oil reserves that they have just a little word of caution here we don't really know how much oil libya and nigeria and saudi arabia and iraq and kuwait and these countries have because they won't let us in to look at the books these are opec countries and they have a cartel and when oil was ten dollars a barrel and they'd like to have it higher they wanted to constrain production so that the price of oil would rise and so they would permit their constituent countries to pump oil as a proportion they're reserves and so there was a temptation for these countries simply to state bigger reserves so that they  oil and get more revenues for their country but if you assume that those are the reserves and relatively this is what the world would look like you see that that the saudi arabia has almost a fourth of all the oil reserves in the world little kuwait which saddam hussein thought looked like a little province down there in the corner of iraq has that these are the second or third largest reserves of oil in the world iran is huge you see there iraq is very large venezuela venezuela dwarfs us here's the united states up here these colors are how much oil you use and of course there's nobody uses oil quite like the united states and so we are the only one sir colored yellow here but notice how small the united states is compared to these other countries and yet we use a fourth of all the oil in the world something which i think gives me pause gives me pause for sure and i think it ought to give everybody pauses to look at the china and india over here china and india together about two point three billion people more than a third of the world's population and they collectively have less oil than we of course china is getting most of its energy from coal it has pretty good coal reserves in its most of its energy from coal which is very polluting which is one of the current problems which they which they have well the president very correctly noted in his state of the union message a couple of years ago that  are forced to get all from some countries that don't even like as in his words and you can look at the names of these countries and not all of don't like us but the many of them are in very unstable parts of the of the world and who knows what tomorrow will will bring the next chart is a quote from one of the studies that i mentioned this was a study september of of five by the army corps of engineers and they very correctly noted that oil is the most important form of energy in the world today and they no that historically no other energy source equals oil's intrinsic qualities of extract ability transportability versatility and cost the qualities that enabled oil to take over from coal is a front line energy source for the industrialized world in the middle of the twentieth century are as relevant today as they were then and every time we look at any alternatives that would take the place of oil obviously cannot be here for ever we must compare them with the qualities that oil has and as this study very correctly noted historically no other energy source equals oil's intrinsic qualities of extract ability transportability versatility and cost gasoline at three dollars a gallon is still cheaper than water in the grocery store think about it that little bottle of water you buy in the grocery store pour enough of those into a job to make a gallon and you will have put in far more than three dollars worth of water the next chart contain some statistics which caused a couple of years or so ago thirty of our prominent americans to write a letter to the president saying mr president the fact that we have only two percent of the world's reserves of oil and use twenty five percent of the world's oil and imports almost two thirds of what we use is a totally unacceptable national security risk we really have to do something about that this is what the president mentioned in his speech when he said we are hooked on oil and that we needed to develop alternatives to free ourselves from our exorbitant dependence on foreign oil a couple more interesting figures here where less than five percent of the world's population one person out of twenty two and we use a fourth of the world's oil that are really interesting figure here is this eight percent we have only two percent of the known reserves that we're producing eight percent of the oil what that means of course is that we are pretty good at pumping our oil fields we ought to be we've drilled more oil feel more oil wells than all the rest of the world put together and so we are now extracting our oil pretty rapidly the  next chart is some figures and i'm sorry that we can't draw as many men as hyman rickover had with high energy consumption goes a high standard of living fossil fuel which we in this country control feeds machines which make each of us master of an army of mechanical slice this was fifty years ago hyman rickover said this we're now fifty years later and what he said then i even more true today he said that each of us represents thirty five watts of electricity or about one twentieth of a horsepower and looking at that by the way when you're looking at at  e replacement for fossil fuels and the energy that's in fossil fuels when you think of what one gallon of gasoline or diesel does i drive a prius that will carry my prius about fifty miles and a pickup truck loaded heavy maybe it will carry it to seventeen miles or so how long would it take me to pull my prius fifty miles and that's the energy in just one gallon of gasoline another statistic which indicates the incredible energy density in these fossil fuels is the amount of work that electricity can do if a grown man works really say that we're worth less than than twenty five cents a day in terms of fossil fuel energy but that's the reality and even fifty years ago hyman rickover pointed this out he said that the household appliances that help the average housewife fifty years ago the backing cleaners the refrigerators and so forth them they have microwaves and that this would represent the equivalent of thirty three faithful household servants is the way he phrased it and then we did some manufacturing and he said that the man working in the factory had the energy available to him and the machinery that helped him to produce his product which represented the equivalent of two hundred and forty four men the automobile of fifty years ago by the way less fuel efficiency than we get today we're doing better not as good as we could but better he said that the automobile use the energy equivalent of two thousand men when you're going seventy miles down the road it's equivalent having two thousand men push your car down the road a locomotive he said represented the work output of one hundred thousand men and the jet airplanes seven hundred thousand men each barrel of oil has the energy equivalent of twelve men working all year twenty five thousand man hours of light when i first heard that i little trouble believing it but then when i thought about how far that gallon of gasoline carries my car and how much work i can get out of twenty five cents worth electricity while i can understand the normal amount of energy and in this oil the next chart and hyman rickover referred to this in his really interesting t eight thousand years of recorded history that the age of oil would represent but a blip in the history of man when he gave this talk fifty years ago we were about one hundred years into the age of oil today we're about a hundred and fifty years into the age of oil i believe that you will agree with me and many other observers that we are about half way through the age of oil the second half will see oil ever higher and cost an ever more difficult to get but that means that an eight thousand years of recorded history the age of oil will have occupied about three hundred years that truly is just but up blip isn't it eight thousand years and what we see here is a distant go back eight thousand years to go back four hundred years is all we see here how little energy was used up until we came to the industrial revolution that started with wood the steam engine and so for the brown line here then we found call and boy it grew but it took off when we found  gas and oil and learned how to exploit the energy and gas and oil notice that little blip of the pop up there that's the one nine hundred seventy well price spike shock and the worldwide recession if we hadn't had that and since then we've been really quite efficient your refrigerator they maybe use of the third as much as your refrigerator did in one thousand nine hundred seventy if we kept going up that curve we'd be in a really big trouble today through the carter years every decade we used as much oil as we had used in all of previous history what that means of course is zero and use half the world's oil at the present use regular have another ten years left of course you couldn't get it that quickly and you would get less and less over a longer long if you have a very fortunately for us we've slowed down on the next chart is a another quote from this really interesting speech by hyman rickover and i hope you will get that speech and and read it i think you'll find it as i did one of the most interesting speeches you've ever read high energy consumption has always been a prerequisite of political power ultimately the nation which controls the largest energy resource will become dominant well i read that and then i reflected on a chart that we're going to see in just a couple of minutes china is going around the world buying on oil and i thought his statement here ultimately the nation which controls the largest energy resources will become dominant if we act wisely and in time to conserve what we have we have not acted wisely nor in time i might add if we act wisely and in time to conserve what we have and prepare well for necessary future changes sure this dominant position for our country now we face a real challenge i believe america is up to the challenge but we face a real challenge and we need real leadership to face as challenge the next chart is another quote from hyman rickover and this is an interesting whether this golden age will continue depends entirely upon our ability to keep energy supplies in balance with the needs of a growing population and he notes that a reduction of per capita energy consumption as always in the past led to a decline in civilization and reversion to a more primitive way of life that we have a lot of knowledge that these cultures before us didn't have and so i hope as less and less fossil fuel energy becomes available to us that we can avoid following this typical response the next chart is what i referred to a couple of moments ago it shows what china is doing around the world and  all of the symbols like this you can see them all over the world this is where china in canada they were going to buy unocal this yellow is from here they didn't buy it going to buy unocal in our country that they are now buying up all reserves all over the world the next chart this is a chart of their production geologists by the name of m king hovered gave a speech which i think within a couple of years will be recognized as the most important speech given in the law last century it was given fifty one years ago the eighth day of march in san antonio texas to a group of oil geologists and company officials united states was then king of oil every year we produce more and more and more oil  and he told them that within fourteen years we were going to reach our maximum production of oil and after that no matter what we did the production of oil would fall off he became a legend in his own time when his prediction came true because sure enough in one thousand nine hundred seventy we reached a peak now he had not included alaska and the gulf of mexico in his prediction and the next chart shows this break out this is the same chart by the way if you simply change the scale on the organ and they have sr you can make these curves spread out or sharper and so this is a little sharper curve than the one we saw in the last because and this is from sarah cambridge energy research associates and they use this graph to try to convince you that you shouldn't have any confidence in hyman rickover because he really wasn't a very good prognos icator of the statistician maybe some reason to to believe that but i think the average person when they see that say gee that green is line is not very far from the yellow line and the most important thing  subcommittee on science and i wanted to find the other dimensions of the problem and so we had a hearing on an oil reserves and we had the world's experts come in to tell us how much oil they thought recover oil was in the world there was a fairly unanimous again i was surprised at how small the range was they believe most of them believe that we had found about two trillion barrels of recoverable oil and that we had pumped about one billion a trillion barrels of recoverable oil so that eight trillion barrels of oil remain but where they use a strange term here giga barrels instead of million barrels and that's because in england i understand a billion is a million million in our country a billion is a thousand million so's to avoid this controversy if you're talking internationally us a thousand billion barrels well this chart shows several projected scenarios for the future if there is about the two trillion barrels total that would be this line and sarah acknowledges that it that's the amount of oil roughly roughly two trillion barrels available one point nine two they have that we are peaking about now and if we found another another amount of oil equal to all the recoverable oil that we have now then you would extend the peak only out to this time and they're projecting here that we may have some unconventional oil we're talking a few moments about this unconventional oil this is like the tar sands of canada the oral shales that we read a little bit about one of these recent articles in our west and this is the conjecture how much we might get from that that's anybody's guess as to how much we might get from that the next chart repeat some of these data in a way that's maybe a little more understandable here's a car that we've seen several times now and this is the  production of oil going up and then the the recession in the seventy's and the slower growth right now and they believe that we will find as much more oil as all the oil that is in the ground and believed to be recoverable for today and if that happens then they push the peak out to twenty six states the point i'm making is that whether you believe that we found most of the oil that we will ultimately find or whether you have believe we find a whole lot more oil this exponential growth really eats up that oil very quickly after albert einstein discovered nuclear energy was asked dr einstein what will be the next great energy force in the universe as a response was the most powerful force in the universe is the power of compound interest in very few people compound growth if you are only two percent doesn't sound like much does it two percent a year a dollar or two cents and that doesn't sound like much growth not very good interest rate that if it grows only two percent a year it doubles in thirty five years it's four times bigger in seventy years it's a times bigger in a hundred and five years it's six team times bigger in a hundred and forty einstein said that the power of compound interest is the most powerful force in the universe this little thought a line here just very quickly if you used enhanced oil recovery and get it out now you won't have it later and notice what happens that if you work really hard and move the peak over a little bit you get less and less out of them very quickly later on the next chart if i'd only one chart to show to talk about the energy situation or oil and gasoline and so forth this would be the chart this is a really great chart from what's called the oil chart and if you go on your web site you can you can look up the website for the oil chart and you can buy one of these  this is a little insert and it has an enormous amount of information it's almost like a textbook in a chart on your wall and this shows two things that are of considerable interest to us one is when we discovered the oil and you can see it when we discovered it way back in the forty's and the fifty's and the sixty's and seventy's but notice what's happened since about the one nine hundred seventy s on on the average less and less and less every year now that's in spite of the fact that we have ever better and better techniques for discovering where oil is computer modeling and three d seismic and so forth the heavy black line here we've seen this several times before this is the the seventies or oil price spike hike in the recession the slower growth now and the slower growth now this was no where near as deep as the slope we really are much more efficient than we were then very thankfully or we would have been in bigger trouble sooner well since about what than one thousand nine hundred and eighty here we have been using more oil than we found because we've been using this much and we found only this much and so now we have been eating into the reserves back here some of these reserves are gone well how much more will we find in the future of course that's anybody's guess but if you're extrapolating from what we've been finding i'd come out a little less than what they say that's not the shaded area over there is the future of course and it's not going to be that smooth of course it'll be up and down but on the average it you wouldn't expect it to be a whole lot different from from that and so in the future we're going to be using these reserves because what we want to use is very much larger than what will be a then what we will find that year to lose you so we're going to be using oil that we found in past years now if you draw a curve over this discovery curve and we've seen that a couple times we'll see just a  curve over the discovery curve the area under that curve represents the the volume of oil you thought that's obviously true that's just adding up all of these little bar and adding up all of those bars that's the the volume you found and the area under the consumption curve will be the amount of oil you've consumed that's very obvious you can't pump oil you haven't found so how much oil do you think we'll pump in the future well that depends on how much will you think we'll find in the future because we know what the current technology reserves are now we may find ways of getting more oil out of the ground so what we think is a current reserve may end up being somewhat bigger reserves and by the way when we have probably gotten all of what we call recoverable oil out of the ground that probably be half of what was originally there that we won't get because the cost of getting it will simply exceed any value that we could get from the oil i kind of smoothed out that previous paragraph leasing and this is a projection by our energy information agency about how much oil we will find in the future they believed when they published as that what we would find would be a lot of what they call the main we don't have time to see need to go into a very interesting transition here from fraction two to probability but the actual data plaint you see are following what they said was  ninety five percent probability and in statistics obviously ninety five percent probable is more probable than fifty percent probable but they believe that we would find and much of their projections all their projections for the future in our energy information agency are predicated on finding a lot more oil and they thought we would be finding oil along this green her that would mean a reversal of what's been going on for for  thirty years the next chart is a statement by one of the giants in this area dr lahore air and he made a statement saying the u s g s estimate implies a five fold increase in discovery right and reserve addition for which no evidence is presented such an improvement in performance is in fact utterly implausible given the great technological achievements of the industry over the past twenty years the world wide search and a deliberate effort to find the largest remaining prospects that you may not think that that is him it is improbable that this is his view the next chart and here this is a saying peak that we've been seeing but here we have spread out the abscess a and compress the organ is a little so we have a flatter curve i wanted to show this one because this shows a two percent increase in rate of use and that's about what we have been doing about two percent that doubles in thirty five years this point is half of that point on the on the ordinates scale and so that yellow area  represents thirty five years what you see there is that the shortages which drives gas to three dollars a gallon oil to seventy five dollars a barrel the shortages begin a bit before the peak now everybody is focused on trying to fill that gap i think that a more rational thing would be to to determine how we can live better on what we've got and hope and hope that we can provide enough alternative sources to maintain this level of energy production for the for the future the next chart and again this is from the big hirsch report and it says world oil peaking is going to happen there is no question obviously it's going to happen the world isn't made out of oil obviously the amount of oil in there earth is finite it will not last for ever the only question is when will it be oil peaking presents a unique challenge the world has never faced a problem like this there is no precedent in the past to prepare us for what will happen with oil but you know when will it occur the next chart references from a to you that's most of our alphabet a lot of different experts in the area some of them really are very definitive and when they think it will occur this source believes j c v's it could occur as early as what about the twenty thirteen or could occur as late as beyond twenty one hundred very indecisive when it might occur but notice that most of these have fairly narrow or ranges and almost all of them believe that it will or could occur fairly soon look how many of them believe that thinking will occur out something for which we ought to be very thankful i prefer to it several times this evening and that is how efficient we have become this lavender shaded area there represents the amount of energy we haven't had to use because we've increased our efficiency that's really good i think we may have a little later charted to show that something about that efficiency the next chart and i feel about what's happening in your world and on the abscissa here we have not how much energy well guess where we're where we are i think most americans feel pretty good about their life and we use more energy than anybody else in the world so look way over there on the right here we are way up here on the right but notice if you draw a line at our level of satisfaction there are twenty some countries that use less energy than we who are happier with their station in life than we are so you don't have to use as much energy as we used to be happy with with your station in life it's interesting here that if you know if you have very little energy it's hard to be use people start feeling pretty good about their station in life which points out that we really can use less energy and still feel the next charge an interesting one and i understand it today and maybe even better than that because this was just two thousand and they've been in continuing this improvement the average citizen in california uses only i'm told today it's only half as much electricity as the average person in the rest of the country now is the really hard to argue they don't live as well in california as we live here and they're using half as much electricity that shows about sixty five percent that this was seven years ago and i'm told that today it's fifty percent they're doing that because they have very stringent regulations for efficiency and so forth the next charge is a really interesting one just one little example of the of the efficiency of several months ago that was in a picture on the front of time magazine i think it was it showed a little a little screw in fluorescent and a big pile of coal it was five hundred pounds of coal and what they said was if you use that little screw in ball which lasts a very long time compared to the incandescent you will cite five hundred pounds of because ninety percent of all the energy that comes out of the bulb this heat just try to take one out just after you've turned it off it's really hot isn't it well if you use fluorescent you know that's much cooler and this is the same amount of light this is the light and the dark blue is all of the energy from the light emitting diode goes into light very little of it goes into goes into to heat the the next chart introduces us to the subject that i wanted to spend most of my time on this evening and obviously we won't be able to do that because most of it doesn't remain but at least i want to start talking about this and next time i promise to spend most of the time talking about what we have a right to expect from the alternative i hope we've made the point that in all probability there will be peaking of oil and there was a huge challenge and we're starting to do that we were talking about replace the fossil fuels that we're now using by the way i might note that there are three major groups that have common cause in wanting to do the same thing that is use less fossil fuels and depend more on sustainable alternatives or one of those groups of the national security people who are really concerned and i'm concerned we use twenty five percent of the world's oil we have only two percent of the world's oil import almost two thirds of what we use that really is a prescription for disaster isn't it and so what you need to do to fix that problem is to use less oil and more of something else so they want to move off of to the people who believe and i also think that they're probably more right than wrong but even if i thought they were wrong i want to lock arms with them because what they want to do is exactly what i want to do for the other two reasons and these are the people who believe that our large use of fossil fuels releasing these this carbon that's been sequestered now for a very long time releasing it very quickly is producing a global warming and climate change and what they want to do is use less fossil fuels and more of something else and i believe that that that may be true and whether it's true or not i say i'm going to lock arms with them and thank you al gore for leading this charge i want to lock arms with them because what they want to do to solve that problem even if it doesn't turn out to be a problem is exactly the thing we need to do to solve the national security dilemma and to dissolve the dilemma of peak oil because we have got to find something to replace these f fuels because obviously obviously they cannot last for a forever what will replace them with well in the transition period we coal or we can use nuclear let me spend just a few moments talking about each of these we're not getting a million barrels a day from the tar sands of canada there is potentially at least a trillion and  half barrels of oil there how much is recoverable who know because we don't know the techniques that will be developed when it can no longer be mined the way it is now now they have a shovel that picks up one hundred tons it's dropped in a truck that hauls four hundred tons and then they take it and cook it what's natural gas which will soon run out and they're talking about building a nuclear power plant there they use lots of water and they have a huge tailing pond they call this really a light full of nasty chemicals and what they're doing there they know is not sustainable and they're producing a million barrels a day sounds like a lot doesn't it but just a little more which is economically justified in producing it even when oil is seventy five dollars a barrel we will get some energies from both of those and ultimately get a lot of energy from both of those i think because oil will go up and up in price which will make it more and more attractive get energy there but no one that i talked to believes that we can develop that fast enough in large enough quantities to meet the demand produced by the tailing off of the future scenario that gets us home free is fusion and if you think we're going to solve our energy problems if huge and you probably think you're going to solve your personal economic problems by winning the lottery because i think the odds may be about the same that doesn't keep me by the way from enthusiastically supporting the two hundred fifty million dollars a year roughly that we spend on fusion research that's like a controlled hydrogen bomb what the sun is doing because if we get there the world but we can go to breeder reactors not now use for energy have been use we use them for producing nuclear weapons you can't produce energy with them they create some problems and it's a tradeoff is solving with the problems worth the energy you get from it but we need to be taking a new look at fission and i know some very bright people who have been opposed to nuclear in the past but when they are contemplating a future where they may be without nuclear shivering in the dark nuclear is not lookin all that bad today i'm going to put this down to the side here to want to put it back up and we'll look at the next chart here and this is looking at worldwide proven oil reserves  to help us have some sense as to how much confidence we ought to have that we're going to be getting the oil from the reserves that are out there even though they're there they may not be available to us this is worldwide proven oil reserves by political risk and this is the number of barrels you know to say add up to a bit more than a billion barrels this is the number of barrels that are in areas of various risk only about a third of the barrels of oil are in countries that have low political risk the biggest chunk is in countries with high political risk and roughly another third  countries with medium political risk so most of the world's oil is in these two categories where there's either medium or high political risk these are called above ground problems there's underground problems you know can you build deep enough can you get it will it flow you have to put seawater and you have to pump live steam down there the next chart shows another look at this and this is worldwide proven oil reserves buy  now obviously there's high political risk you're probably high investment risk i don't know too many people that are interested to invest in oil production in iran today would you think well it says here that the biggest chunk of these countries have high investment risk so it's not easy to get money to invest there to develop the oil next and then the medium and then no foreign investment allowed in this sector the low is here so for most of it for this much of this pie chart there is either high risk for investment medium risk or investment or they won't let you invest so national oil you can't invest it all so who knows what will happen there because they have total control let me put this chart back up for just a moment and introduce us to what ult when we did live another hundred fifty years and i through the age of oil we will then have sustainable renewable sources whether we like it or not whether we plan for it or not that's what we will have and this is not an exhaustive list but a reasonable list of these renewable resources solar and wind and geothermal and ocean energies and agricultural resources waste to energy hydrogen from from renewables just a word or two about a couple things here and then we'll put the next chart up hydrogen from renewables you're not hearing much talk about hydrogen today and the reason for that is people finally figured out hydrogen is not an energy source hydrogen is produced from another energy source and it will always have less energy than the energy it took to produce it so why are we talking about hydrogen for two reasons one is when you finally burn it it produces water that's pretty clean that's great and the second thing is it's a great candidate for a fuel cell if we ever get a fuel cell the second honestly supportable but they're probably twenty years away before we get there that waste energy really a good idea and we ought to be using more of that let's put the next chart up for that show some of these things the waste to energy we're now getting a fair amount of waste and let's look at this whole chart first of all we have on a couple minutes remaining eighty five percent of all of our energy comes from from fossil fuels only fifteen percent from mean from the new ovals and most of that from nuclear but more than half from nuclear the seven percent which is and that's broken down this way come conventional hydro we probably won't get more of that we dammed up about all the big rivers we we can i will promise that when we come back again to talk about this kind of start here so that i can spend some time on realistic expectations for what we can get out of these alternatives we're the most creative innovative society in the world there is no exhilaration like the exhilaration of meeting and overcoming a big challenge we have a huge challenge in preparing for this energy future with proper leadership i think the united states can really really become a world leader in this and americans will feel better and better about who we are and what we're doing because we monday next for morning hour