美国国务院
发言人办公室
华盛顿特区
2022年2月17日
安东尼·布林肯国务卿在联合国安理会谈俄罗斯对和平与安全的威胁

联合国总部
纽约州纽约市
布林肯国务卿：主席先生，本理事会今天开会讨论《明斯克协议》（Minsk Agreements）的执行情况，这是我们所有人的一个共同目标，尽管俄罗斯一再违反协议。这些协议于2014年和2015年谈判达成并由俄罗斯签署，它们仍然是解决乌克兰东部地区冲突的和平进程的基础。
本理事会的首要职责——其创建的根本原因——是维护和平与安全。在我们今天集会之时，对和平与安全的最紧迫的威胁是俄罗斯针对乌克兰的迫在眉睫的进犯。
与之利害攸关的远远不止是乌克兰。这对于数百万人民的生命和安全，以及对于《联合国宪章》（United Nations Charter）的根基和维护全球稳定的基于规章的国际秩序，都是一个危急时刻。这场危机直接影响到本理事会的每一个成员以及全世界每个国家。
因为维持和平与安全的基本原则——在两次世界大战和冷战之后得到庄严确立的各项原则——正在受到威胁。一个国家不得以武力改变另一个国家的边界的原则。一个国家不得对另一个国家的选择或政策，或是它与谁交往发号施令的原则。有关国家主权的原则。
联合国——特别是安理会——正是为制止这类危机而创建的。
我们必须应对俄罗斯目前针对乌克兰的所作所为。
在过去几个月里，俄罗斯无缘无故、无正当理由地在乌克兰边境、在俄罗斯、白俄罗斯和被占领的克里米亚集结了超过15万军队。俄罗斯说它正在撤回这些军队。我们在实地没有看到这种情况。我们的信息清楚地显示，这些军队——包括地面部队、飞机和舰船——正在准备在今后数日对乌克兰发动攻击。
我们无法确知事态将如何发展，但以下是全世界可以预期的局势发展。事实上，今天事态正在发展，此时此刻，随着俄罗斯在通往战争的道路上继续走下去，并重新发出了军事行动的威胁。
首先，俄罗斯计划为发动攻击制造一个借口。这可能是一次俄罗斯将归咎于乌克兰的暴力事件，或是俄罗斯将针对乌克兰政府提出的一个极其荒谬的指控。我们无法确知它将采取何种形式。这可能是一起编造出来的在俄罗斯国内的所谓“恐怖主义”爆炸，捏造出来的发现万人冢的事件，一起编排好的针对平民的无人机袭击，或是一次假的——甚至可能是真的——使用化学武器的袭击。俄罗斯可能会将这一事件说成是民族清洗或民族灭绝，公然嘲弄一个我们在本理事会严肃对待的问题，也是我基于我的家族历史严肃对待的一个问题。
在过去几天里，俄罗斯媒体已经开始散布这样一些虚假警报和声称，以最大限度地煽动民愤，为捏造借口以发动战争做好铺垫。今天，俄罗斯受国家控制的媒体愈加紧锣密鼓。今天在这里，我们已经听到受俄罗斯支持的发言者提出这样一些毫无依据的指控。
第二，针对这种人为制造的挑衅，俄罗斯政府最高层可能戏剧化地召开紧急会议，处理所谓的危机。它会发布公告宣称，俄罗斯必须作出反应以保卫俄罗斯公民或在乌克兰的俄罗斯族人。
下一步，攻击准备开始。俄罗斯的导弹和炮弹将落在乌克兰各地。通讯被干扰。网络攻击将使乌克兰重要机构停摆。
此后，俄罗斯的坦克和士兵将向已在具体方案中被标明和绘出的关键目标挺进。我们相信，这些目标包括乌克兰首都基辅（Kyiv），一座有280万人的城市。
常规进攻并不是俄罗斯计划加害于乌克兰人民的全部。我们掌握的信息显示，俄罗斯将把乌克兰某些具体群体作为打击目标。
我们一直就各种即将发生的情况向乌克兰政府发出警告。今天在这里，我们将它们详细列出，以期通过把我们所知的情况告诉世界，我们能够影响俄罗斯，使它放弃战争道路，在时间仍允许时，改弦更张。
我意识到，有些人对我们的信息提出疑问，指出过去情报最终不属实的例子。但是，我要明确这样一点：我今天在这里不是要发动战争，而是要防止战争。我在此所说的已经被几个月来我们所目睹的清清楚楚展现在眼前的情况证实。要记得，尽管俄罗斯一再嘲讽我们的提醒和警告是耸人听闻和无稽之谈，但他们却一步步地在乌克兰边境集结起15万以上兵力以及发动大规模军事进攻的能力。
不仅仅是我们看到这点：盟国和伙伴也看到这点。俄罗斯不只是听到我们的声音。国际社会的声音也日益响亮。
如果俄罗斯不入侵乌克兰，那么我们会对俄罗斯改弦更张和我们的预测失误感到释然。那将是一个比目前正在走的路线要可取得多的结果。我们将欣然接受任何人对我们的批评。
正如拜登总统所说，这将是一场选择的战争。如果俄罗斯作出那一选择，我们和盟国及伙伴一贯明确表示，我们的反应将是锋利和果断的。拜登总统本周有力地重申了这点。
俄罗斯仍可以作出另一选择，如果它所声称的致力于外交是真话。
外交是解决这场危机的唯一一条负责任的道路。其中一个重要部分是通过实施《明斯克协议》，这是我们今天会议的主题。
根据《明斯克协议》，俄罗斯和乌克兰作出了一系列承诺，欧洲安全与合作组织（OSCE）和“诺曼底模式”（Normandy Format）伙伴成员也参与其中。
如果俄罗斯准备与乌克兰政府坐下来和共同进行落实这些承诺的程序，我们在法国和德国的朋友随时准备举行“诺曼底模式”高层商讨，解决这些问题。乌克兰对此作好了准备。我们充分准备好随时支持各方。
通过《明斯克协议》对解决顿巴斯（Donbas）危机取得进展，可以有助于有关安全问题的更广泛讨论，我们有准备与盟国和伙伴协调合作，同俄罗斯就这些安全问题进行接触。
三个多星期前，我们交给俄罗斯一份文件，列出我们可以在近期采取的具体的对等步骤，解决我们各自的关注和促进俄罗斯、美国以及我们欧洲伙伴和盟国的共同安全利益。今早我们收到了回复，现在正在作出评估。
今天早些时候，我向俄罗斯外交部长谢尔盖·拉夫罗夫发出一封信，提议我们下周在欧洲会晤，继续我们最近几周的会谈，商讨我们可以为不发生冲突地解决这场危机所采取的步骤。我们也提议举行北约–俄罗斯理事会（NATO-Russia Council）和欧安组织常设理事会（OSCE Permanent Council）会议。
这些会议可以在局势缓和的情况下，为主要领导人举行峰会铺平道路，以就我们相互的安全关注达成谅解。我们身为各自国家的主要外交官，有责任尽一切努力让外交取得成功，要竭尽一切外交手段。
如果俄罗斯致力于外交，我们正在给予它一切机会展示这一承诺。
我毫不怀疑，对我今天的这些话俄罗斯政府会作出更多的否认回应，说这是美国在引发歇斯底里，或者说它“毫无计划”入侵乌克兰。
所以，让我来使这变得简单。俄罗斯政府可以在今天宣布——无条件、不含糊，不作回避地——宣布，俄罗斯不会入侵乌克兰。明确地声明。直截了当地向世界声明。而后，通过将你们的军队、你们的坦克、你们的飞机撤回军营和机库和将你们的外交官派到谈判桌前，来证明你们所言。
在未来的日子里，世界将会记住那项承诺——或者是对其的拒绝。我的发言结束。
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欲查看原稿内容:   https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-on-russias-threat-to-peace-and-security-at-the-un-security-council/

Secretary Antony J. Blinken on Russia’s Threat to Peace and Security at the UN Security Council

REMARKS
ANTONY J. BLINKEN, SECRETARY OF STATE
UN HEADQUARTERS
NEW YORK CITY, NEW YORK
FEBRUARY 17, 2022
SECRETARY BLINKEN:  Mr. President, this council was convened today to discuss the implementation of the Minsk Agreements, a goal that we all share, despite Russia’s persistent violations.  These agreements, which were negotiated in 2014 and 2015 and signed by Russia, remain the basis for the peace process to resolve the conflict in eastern Ukraine.
This council’s primary responsibility – the very reason for its creation – is the preservation of peace and security.  As we meet today, the most immediate threat to peace and security is Russia’s looming aggression against Ukraine.
The stakes go far beyond Ukraine.  This is a moment of peril for the lives and safety of millions of people, as well as for the foundation of the United Nations Charter and the rules-based international order that preserves stability worldwide.  This crisis directly affects every member of this council and every country in the world.
Because the basic principles that sustain peace and security – principles that were enshrined in the wake of two world wars and a Cold War – are under threat.  The principle that one country cannot change the borders of another by force.  The principle that one country cannot dictate another’s choices or policies, or with whom it will associate.  The principle of national sovereignty.
This is the exact kind of crisis that the United Nations – and specifically this Security Council – was created to prevent.
We must address what Russia is doing right now to Ukraine.
Over the past months, without provocation or justification, Russia has amassed more than 150,000 troops around Ukraine’s borders, in Russia, Belarus, occupied Crimea.  Russia says it’s drawing down those forces.  We do not see that happening on the ground.  Our information indicates clearly that these forces – including ground troops, aircraft, ships – are preparing to launch an attack against Ukraine in the coming days.
We don’t know precisely how things will play out, but here’s what the world can expect to see unfold.  In fact, it’s unfolding right now, today, as Russia takes steps down the path to war and reissued the threat of military action.
First, Russia plans to manufacture a pretext for its attack.  This could be a violent event that Russia will blame on Ukraine, or an outrageous accusation that Russia will level against the Ukrainian Government.  We don’t know exactly the form it will take.  It could be a fabricated so-called “terrorist” bombing inside Russia, the invented discovery of a mass grave, a staged drone strike against civilians, or a fake – even a real – attack using chemical weapons.  Russia may describe this event as ethnic cleansing or a genocide, making a mockery of a concept that we in this chamber do not take lightly, nor do I do take lightly based on my family history.
In the past few days, Russian media has already begun to spread some of these false alarms and claims, to maximize public outrage, to lay the groundwork for an invented justification for war. Today, that drumbeat has only intensified in Russia’s state-controlled media.  We’ve heard some of these baseless allegations from Russian-backed speakers here today.
Second, in response to this manufactured provocation, the highest levels of the Russian Government may theatrically convene emergency meetings to address the so-called crisis.  The government will issue proclamations declaring that Russia must respond to defend Russian citizens or ethnic Russians in Ukraine.
Next, the attack is planned to begin.  Russian missiles and bombs will drop across Ukraine.  Communications will be jammed.  Cyberattacks will shut down key Ukrainian institutions.
After that, Russian tanks and soldiers will advance on key targets that have already been identified and mapped out in detailed plans.  We believe these targets include Russia’s capital –Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, a city of 2.8 million people.
And conventional attacks are not all that Russia plans to inflict upon the people of Ukraine.  We have information that indicates Russia will target specific groups of Ukrainians.
We’ve been warning the Ukrainian Government of all that is coming.  And here today, we are laying it out in great detail, with the hope that by sharing what we know with the world, we can influence Russia to abandon the path of war and choose a different path while there’s still time.
Now, I am mindful that some have called into question our information, recalling previous instances where intelligence ultimately did not bear out.  But let me be clear: I am here today, not to start a war, but to prevent one.  The information I’ve presented here is validated by what we’ve seen unfolding in plain sight before our eyes for months.  And remember that while Russia has repeatedly derided our warnings and alarms as melodrama and nonsense, they have been steadily amassing more than 150,000 troops on Ukraine’s borders, as well as the capabilities to conduct a massive military assault.
It isn’t just us seeing this: Allies and partners see the same thing.  And Russia hasn’t only been hearing from us.  The international chorus has grown louder and louder.
If Russia doesn’t invade Ukraine, then we will be relieved that Russia changed course and proved our predictions wrong.  That would be a far better outcome than the course we’re currently on.  And we will gladly accept any criticism that anyone directs at us.
As President Biden said, this would be a war of choice.  And if Russia makes that choice, we’ve been clear, along with Allies and partners, that our response will be sharp and decisive.  President Biden reiterated that forcefully earlier this week.
There is another choice Russia can still make, if there is any truth to its claim that it is committed to diplomacy.
Diplomacy is the only responsible way to resolve this crisis.  An essential part of this is through implementation of the Minsk agreements, the subject of our session today.
There are a series of commitments that Russia and Ukraine made under Minsk, with the OSCE and the Normandy Format partners involved as well.
If Russia is prepared to sit with the Ukrainian Government and work through the process of implementing these commitments, our friends in France and Germany stand ready to convene senior-level discussions in the Normandy Format to settle these issues.  Ukraine is ready for this.  And we stand fully ready to support the parties.
Progress toward resolving the Donbas crisis through the Minsk Agreements can reinforce the broader discussions on security issues that we’re prepared to engage in with Russia, in coordination with our Allies and partners.
More than three weeks ago, we provided Russia with a paper that detailed concrete, reciprocal steps that we can take in the near term to address our respective concerns and advance the collective security interests of Russia, the United States, and our European partners and allies. This morning, we received a response, which we are evaluating.
Earlier today, I sent a letter to Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov proposing that we meet next week in Europe, following on our talks in recent weeks, to discuss the steps that we can take to resolve this crisis without conflict.  We are also proposing meetings of the NATO-Russia Council and the OSCE Permanent Council.
These meetings can pave the way for a summit of key leaders, in the context of de-escalation, to reach understandings on our mutual security concerns.  As lead diplomats for our nations, we have a responsibility to make every effort for diplomacy to succeed, to leave no diplomatic stone unturned.
If Russia is committed to diplomacy, we are presenting every opportunity for it to demonstrate that commitment.
I have no doubt that the response to my remarks here today will be more dismissals from the Russian Government about the United States stoking hysteria or that it has “no plans” to invade Ukraine.
So let me make this simple. The Russian Government can announce today – with no qualification, equivocation, or deflection – that Russia will not invade Ukraine.  State it clearly.  State it plainly to the world.  And then demonstrate it by sending your troops, your tanks, your planes back to their barracks and hangars and sending your diplomats to the negotiating table.
In the coming days, the world will remember that commitment – or the refusal to make it.  I yield the floor.