Last years summer was noteworthy for being very wet and very windy and yet neither of these qualities featured in the meteorological services long-term forecast. We were advised that we could expect a typical summer with above- average temperatures and average or slightly above-average levels of rainfall. There was no mention whatsoever of the widespread flooding that occurred. This raises the question of whether the forecast was wrong and they in principle could have but did not forecast the exceptional weather or whether it is in principle impossible to forecast specific long-term exceptional events. Long-term forecasts are based on baseline averages over an extended period and trends in that baseline are used to build the forecast and predict, for example, if that trend is to continue. If extreme weather is occurring more frequently then it is feasible that the forecast might include the prediction that the frequency of these events will continue to be higher than the historic average.
Question: It is a mistake to believe that the exceptional can be forecast over the long term.
Options:
A. true, B. false, C. uncertain
Answer: B