Winning is all that matters with an Indyref2
13 October 2016
She is adamant that she didn't mean it. The little dry gibe, seemingly about Alex Salmond, that is. You remember? When Nicola Sturgeon was talking about the sundry items of advice which come her way, unbidden? Yes, that. What she intended to say was: "There's not a day that passes just now without someone advising me to hurry up with a referendum." Except she said:  "SOMEONE." With unwarranted emphasis. It provoked slightly nervous laughter in the packed conference hall. You could see delegates nudging each other. By SOMEONE, did she mean him? Did she mean Alex Salmond? Her predecessor? Again, she is resolute in insisting that she did not. She meant someone, anyone. But, maybe, somewhere in the subconscious.......  Certainly, Mr Salmond has been assiduously advocating an early Indyref2. Stifling her own faint laughter, Ms Sturgeon continued: "And there's not a day that passes without someone advising me to slow down." Welcome, she concluded this section, to my world. Welcome, indeed. For the First Minister is plainly torn over the issue of an early return plebiscite. Left in peace, without the intervening Brexit vote, I doubt whether she would be contemplating indyref2 for several years, probably not before the next Holyrood elections. But she has not been left in peace. None of us has. Scottish and UK politics are in post-Brexit turmoil. Which may - may - act as a trigger to holding a further poll. But, Ms Sturgeon ponders, will it act as a trigger to a Yes vote? Because, to restate for the umpteenth time, she does not want to hold a second referendum. She wants to win one. She wants substance, not gesture. I thought her speech today at the SNP conference was one of the best I have heard her deliver. Well constructed, vigorously argued - with commendable stress on the big lines. Rhetorically, it was a success. However, there is a conundrum here, an enigma. And, on this occasion, Ms Sturgeon is very well aware of the impact of her words. Consider this. The line which drew by far the biggest applause was, arguably, the least significant announcement in the speech. That was when she indicated that a draft Referendum Bill would be published next week for public consultation. Delegates cheered, they yelled. They rose to their feet:  literally uplifted, jubilant. For what? As one puzzled delegate said to me after wards: "That doesn't mean anything, does it Brian?" Precious little was my reply. We already knew she intended to have draft legislation on hand, should it be needed. It will be placed on a nearby shelf, ready to deploy. Consultation does not mean decision. It does not mean a date for the ballot. It does not mean action. It does not mean a referendum will definitely happen. It means next to nothing. However, there was in the speech a far more significant announcement which, shorn of rhetoric, drew relatively little applause. That was when the FM said her government would put forward proposals - which they are already crafting - to maintain as much of Scotland's links with the EU as may be thought feasible, post Brexit. Crucially, this would be within the UK.  It would not require indyref2. It would not require independence. It would, however, require new powers for the Scottish Parliament - including the power to reach transnational agreements. It would require, therefore, a flexible UK: perhaps on the lines of the relationship between Flanders and Belgium as a whole. Perhaps maintaining connections to the single market, Norway style. Perhaps also driven by the need to accord special status to Northern Ireland. In essence, Ms Sturgeon is making that the core of her pitch. She is challenging Theresa May to smile upon this prospect, to take it seriously and, ultimately, to advance it as part of the UK Brexit pitch if it is judged worthwhile. It is, as one senior insider told me, a "measurable" test of the Prime Minister's promise to consult and involve Scotland. Of course, we remain in early days. We await the details of the SG proposals. We await the UK response to the SG standpoint: perhaps in outline at the next joint ministerial meeting the week after next. In detail, later. Again in essence, the FM is challenging the PM to meet Scottish demands, in part or in whole - and now attaching that to a precise proposal, yet to emerge. In one of the most powerful passages in the speech, she stressed that she was "serious" about protecting Scotland's interests. Plainly implying that a referendum would follow should that serious approach be dismissed. That, too, drew huge applause. Finally, from the conference, warm congratulations are due to Angus Robertson MP who won a convincing victory in the contest to be the party's new deputy leader. He won outright on the first ballot - and delivered a measured, thoughtful vote of thanks which praised his rivals in the contest. Then the big line.  Independence, he said, was "very, very close". We shall see. I don't see any prospect of indyref2 in 2017. For one, the shape of Brexit would have to be more clearly defined in order to provide an authentic counterbalance to the indy offer. For another, Ms Sturgeon confirmed to me in a Webcast interview that she expected indyref2 would - like version one -require a Section 30 transfer of powers from Westminster to Holyrood. That would take time and negotiation. How about 2018 then? That is another matter entirely, especially if the SG hopes to secure a Yes vote before the UK has actually left the EU. In that same interview, Ms Sturgeon said she felt something of a "duty" to the people of Scotland to give them a chance to reconsider their constitutional position - given that the nature of the UK had been changed utterly by the Brexit vote. So she is "serious" about contemplating indyref2. But she is not there yet. And, more to the point, we do not yet know what the reaction of the people of Scotland might be.
Precious little was my reply. We already knew she intended to have draft legislation on hand, should it be needed. It will be placed on a nearby shelf, ready to deploy. Consultation does not mean decision. It does not mean a date for the ballot. It does not mean action. It does not mean a referendum will definitely happen. It means next to nothing. However, there was in the speech a far more significant announcement which, shorn of rhetoric, drew relatively little applause. That was when the FM said her government would put forward proposals - which they are already crafting - to maintain as much of Scotland's links with the EU as may be thought feasible, post Brexit.
7399_0
Will a second referendum take place?
Crucially, this would be within the UK.  It would not require indyref2. It would not require independence. It would, however, require new powers for the Scottish Parliament - including the power to reach transnational agreements. It would require, therefore, a flexible UK: perhaps on the lines of the relationship between Flanders and Belgium as a whole. Perhaps maintaining connections to the single market, Norway style. Perhaps also driven by the need to accord special status to Northern Ireland. In essence, Ms Sturgeon is making that the core of her pitch. She is challenging Theresa May to smile upon this prospect, to take it seriously and, ultimately, to advance it as part of the UK Brexit pitch if it is judged worthwhile. It is, as one senior insider told me, a "measurable" test of the Prime Minister's promise to consult and involve Scotland. Of course, we remain in early days. We await the details of the SG proposals. We await the UK response to the SG standpoint: perhaps in outline at the next joint ministerial meeting the week after next. In detail, later. Again in essence, the FM is challenging the PM to meet Scottish demands, in part or in whole - and now attaching that to a precise proposal, yet to emerge. In one of the most powerful passages in the speech, she stressed that she was "serious" about protecting Scotland's interests. Plainly implying that a referendum would follow should that serious approach be dismissed. That, too, drew huge applause.
7399_1
Will the PM's promise to consult be fulfilled?