'El Chapo' Guzman will be Mexican President Pena Nieto's legacy
20 July 2015
Most Mexicans reacted in one of two ways to the surreal news that Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman, one of the world's most dangerous - and wealthiest - criminals had escaped from a high-security prison. Again. It was either anger or laughter. But it was humour that won out, at least for the first 24 hours. Pretty soon, fake selfies appeared on social media showing El Chapo outside Trump Tower smiling. A dig, of course, at businessman Donald Trump who outraged Mexicans recently when he said those who came to the US were "bringing drugs, bringing crime, they're rapists". Sarcasm and dark humour are what seem to be getting Mexicans through these difficult times. And these times are excruciating for President Enrique Pena Nieto too. Little over a year ago, he was celebrating catching El Chapo after 13 years on the run. He held it up as an example of how successful Mexico was in tackling the cartels, unlike his predecessor Felipe Calderon, whose so-called war on drugs was seen as too confrontational and stoking violence. So confident was he, Pena Nieto went on television to make it clear that El Chapo could not and would not escape for a second time. He even used the word "imperdonable" (inexcusable). It would be unforgiveable, he said, if it were to happen again. But he is going to have to beg his people for forgiveness after all. For his legacy runs the risk of being associated with El Chapo for all the wrong reasons. Vanda Felbab-Brown of the Brookings Institution in Washington DC says despite understanding the need to curb violence, Pena Nieto's approach has not been successful. He has, she says, essentially repeated all the same policies as his predecessor - that of targeting criminals. But it has not all been a failure. The president has tried to prioritise economic reform too and has made some progress. This week, the country held the first round of oil auctions - a huge step in opening up the energy sector to private investment. According to Duncan Wood of the Mexico Institute at the Wilson Centre, it is the campaign promise that has proved most successful - but amid falling oil prices and struggling production, it has not been without its challenges either. Pena Nieto tried to look on the bright side this week, praising Mexico as an open and competitive economy on the up. But for all the talk of economics, it is public safety that people here are more worried about. The disappearance of 43 students from the town of Iguala last September was a low point for the president. The Mexican electorate has got used to years of drug violence but this was a step too far. Pena Nieto's slow reaction did not go down well and approval ratings plummeted. They have not risen much since. But even before that, there were human rights violations that have rocked the administration. In 2014, soldiers opened fire on a group of people in the town of Tlatlaya, killing 22. Seven police officers have been charged with torturing three witnesses. Then in November came the so-called "White House" scandal - questions about how the president and First Lady Angelica Rivera acquired their $7m (PS4m) private home. Duncan Wood says El Chapo's escape just adds to the disillusion, disenchantment and disappointment that the Mexican people already have with established politicians. But can Pena Nieto use this as a chance to look seriously at improving the rule of law? Several senior prison officials, including the head of the Altiplano prison, have been dismissed but no cabinet members' heads have rolled. For many Mexicans, that is not surprising. "It's been made extremely clear that transparency and political accountability are not the fortes of the Pena Nieto administration," says Dwight Dyer of Control Risks. Promises made, he adds, have been "broken a thousand times". Iguala - President criticised for being slow to respond to the mass kidnapping. He gave his first public address 10 days after the students disappeared. Tlatlaya - The government was accused of delaying an independent inquiry into the killing of more than 20 people. The army initially described the incident as an armed clash but witnesses indicated that more than a dozen of the people killed had been shot after surrendering or as they lay wounded. "White House" scandal - an investigation by Mexican journalist Carmen Aristegui revealed Pena Nieto's wife had purchased a luxury house owned by a major government contractor. It led to allegations of corruption. Aristegui was subsequently fired by her radio station, they say for an unrelated internal issue. But that did not stop accusations of censorship. El Chapo escape - The capture of Mexico's most dangerous criminal was meant to be a high point for Pena Nieto. He has lost a great deal of respect with his escape. This escape, says security analyst Alejandro Hope, has come at great cost to Pena Nieto's domestic and international image. "His whole political persona is built on the notion that he's an efficient and effective ruler, that he can deliver things," he says. At the very best, this escape makes Enrique Pena Nieto's government look foolish. At the very worst, it highlights just how rotten many of Mexico's institutions are. One thing experts do agree on is the problem of institution building. Vanda Felbab-Brown says Pena Nieto has struggled with this more than his predecessors. Ironically, the one institution Pena Nieto has been trying to dismantle above all others - El Chapo's Sinaloa drug cartel - seems to be stronger than ever.
Vanda Felbab-Brown of the Brookings Institution in Washington DC says despite understanding the need to curb violence, Pena Nieto's approach has not been successful. He has, she says, essentially repeated all the same policies as his predecessor - that of targeting criminals. But it has not all been a failure. The president has tried to prioritise economic reform too and has made some progress. This week, the country held the first round of oil auctions - a huge step in opening up the energy sector to private investment. According to Duncan Wood of the Mexico Institute at the Wilson Centre, it is the campaign promise that has proved most successful - but amid falling oil prices and struggling production, it has not been without its challenges either. Pena Nieto tried to look on the bright side this week, praising Mexico as an open and competitive economy on the up. But for all the talk of economics, it is public safety that people here are more worried about.
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Economic success?