Pound rises - do markets believe Remain has won?
23 June 2016
Investors know no more than the rest of us about who has won. But the markets seem to think that Remain has had a strong day at the polls. Sterling hit a 2016 high today against the dollar and could be on track for one of its strongest weeks on the markets - in terms of increase in value - for 30 years. Yields on government debt also rose slightly, a signal that investors are moving away from safe haven assets and risking a little more investing in the stock market. The FTSE 100 was up by 1.2%. With Ladbroke's pricing a Remain win at 10/1 on favourites this morning, investors clearly believe punters (or the wisdom of crowds) appear to know more than the polls which are still suggesting the outcome of the vote today will be close. Now, if the markets are wrong - and they can be, despite some hedge funds reportedly commissioning their own, private polling - there is likely to be a significant currency swing overnight in Asia (markets there open at 01:00 BST) and a sharp deterioration when the London markets open for trading later in the morning. "There is very much a Remain scenario still priced in to the markets," Jeremy Cook of the currency exchange World First told me. "What this does mean of course is that any "Bremain bounce" will be more of a blip and any Leave losses will be monstrous." After a week in which sterling has strengthened markedly, if Leave win against market expectations, the "correction" is likely to make Friday pretty torrid on the markets.
With Ladbroke's pricing a Remain win at 10/1 on favourites this morning, investors clearly believe punters (or the wisdom of crowds) appear to know more than the polls which are still suggesting the outcome of the vote today will be close. Now, if the markets are wrong - and they can be, despite some hedge funds reportedly commissioning their own, private polling - there is likely to be a significant currency swing overnight in Asia (markets there open at 01:00 BST) and a sharp deterioration when the London markets open for trading later in the morning.
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Markets wrong?