Syrian war: Who next to intervene?
5 February 2016
With Syrian government forces, backed up by Russian air power, making headway around Aleppo, there are warnings that more countries may seek to weigh in on the rebel side. So who might intervene? And what, if any, difference would it make to the already complicated dynamics of the fighting in Syria? There are already a variety of external actors  - western countries, the Gulf Arabs and so on - providing weaponry and training to the various factions battling against President Bashar al-Assad's forces on the ground. Western air power is waging a daily, but limited, campaign against fighters of the so-called Islamic State (IS), the tempo of air operations rising when there is some discernible movement on the ground. Other forces are more directly involved in the fighting. Russia is engaged in an air campaign which, while claimed to be against "terrorism and so-called IS", has largely served to bolster the Assad regime's forces. Iranian and Hezbollah fighters have also taken an active role on the ground fighting alongside Syrian government units. Russia's involvement now seems to be paying dividends for the Assad regime, not just by consolidating its position but by enabling some significant advances, such as threatening to cut off rebel forces in Aleppo from their vital supply lines which reach back to Turkey. This has prompted impassioned calls from the Turkish government. Turkey's Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, speaking in London on Thursday, said "the humanitarian logistic corridor" between Turkey and Aleppo was "under the invasion of these foreign fighters and regime forces (with) the support of Russian warplanes". The Turks are alarmed at the additional refugee problems that this new offensive is causing, quite apart from the advance of regime forces so close to their own border. Aleppo is only some 30 miles (50km) from the Turkish frontier. But most of all Turkey is concerned at the wider shifting dynamics in the region. The instability in Syria and Iraq is prompting fears of the emergence of a viable Kurdish state of some kind. This explains Turkey's crackdown in its own Kurdish areas - a military campaign that has drawn only muted criticism from its allies in the West - and it also explains why the Turks have periodically wondered about some kind of full-blown intervention to secure an area of the Syrian border closest to them. Turkey might be tempted to intervene but this would depend upon Kurdish dynamics. This is a reflection of Ankara's strategic calculations and less an effort to resolve the Syrian crisis once and for all. For now the Turkish government is insisting it has no intention of making any incursion into Syria and it blames Russian propaganda for stoking up the fears. The Saudis too seem to be mulling an intervention of sorts. This, though, may be more a signal of their frustration at Russia's role; the limited efforts of the West to strengthen Syrian rebels, and the stuttering of the diplomatic process to reach a settlement. But do the Saudis really want to intervene? The involvement of the Saudis and other Arab states has been short-lived and largely symbolic. Riyadh preferred to turn its attention to the battle closer to home in Yemen. Indeed, if anything, the Saudis' engagement in Yemen may have opened their eyes to the pitfalls of foreign military adventure. And they have in any case made their involvement dependent upon a greater US military role on the ground. But were new outside actors to intervene on the rebel side, what might they do, and would this hasten a resolution of the Syrian conflict ? The Turks, for one, should not be under-estimated. They could move mechanised and armoured units across the border and sustain them. But this would risk a confrontation with the Russians and their allies - a potential battle between a Nato member and Moscow which could have serious consequences. Relations between Turkey and Russia are already in the freezer after the Turks shot down a Russian warplane that briefly intruded into their territory last November. The Saudis' capabilities are more limited and for now they are presenting any potential role as being one alongside the Americans. The US is clearly stepping up its training and special forces activities. In Iraq, where there are more credible allied ground forces, there may be a significant expansion of the US ground role. But Syria is very different. The shifting alliances of anti-government rebels, the strongest of whom have ties to al-Qaeda-related groups, is not a context which would encourage a significant US ground presence. One cannot escape the conclusion that the involvement of additional actors would only complicate Syria's multiple conflicts while offering no necessary likelihood of a speedy conclusion to the fighting. Why is there a war in Syria? Anti-government protests developed into a civil war that, four years on, has ground to a stalemate, with the Assad government, the so-called Islamic State group, an array of Syrian rebels and Kurdish fighters all holding territory. Who is fighting whom? Government forces concentrated in Damascus and the centre and west of Syria are fighting the jihadists of Islamic State and al-Nusra Front, as well as less numerous so-called "moderate" rebel groups, who are strongest in the north and east. These groups are also battling each other. How has the world reacted? Iran, Russia and Lebanon's Hezbollah movement are propping up the Alawite-led Assad government, while Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar back the more moderate Sunni-dominated opposition, along with the US, UK and France. Hezbollah and Iran are believed to have troops and officers on the ground, while a Western-led coalition and Russia are carrying out air strikes.
Why is there a war in Syria? Anti-government protests developed into a civil war that, four years on, has ground to a stalemate, with the Assad government, the so-called Islamic State group, an array of Syrian rebels and Kurdish fighters all holding territory. Who is fighting whom? Government forces concentrated in Damascus and the centre and west of Syria are fighting the jihadists of Islamic State and al-Nusra Front, as well as less numerous so-called "moderate" rebel groups, who are strongest in the north and east. These groups are also battling each other. How has the world reacted? Iran, Russia and Lebanon's Hezbollah movement are propping up the Alawite-led Assad government, while Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar back the more moderate Sunni-dominated opposition, along with the US, UK and France. Hezbollah and Iran are believed to have troops and officers on the ground, while a Western-led coalition and Russia are carrying out air strikes.
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What is the Syria conflict?