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Sounds like the some critics are 100% correct.
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Carbon dioxide from human activities will most likely cause dangerous climate change in the foreseeable future.
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None of the models used by IPCC are initialized to the observed state and none of the climate states in the models correspond even remotely to the current observed climate.
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Oxford University students lose faith in warming
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Reconstructed sea surface temperatures of the NE Atlantic are shown in the second graph, with the end of the 20th century at the left side of the graph. The smoothed data indicates a cooling of approximately 3C over the past 2,400 years.
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Climatologists are pessimistic that political leaders will take any positive action to compensate for the climatic change, or even to allay its effects. They concede that some of the more spectacular solutions proposed, such as melting the Arctic ice cap by covering it with black soot or diverting arctic rivers, might create problems far greater than those they solve.
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The Soviet model was defeated not only on the economic and social levels; it was defeated on a cultural level. Our society, our people, the most educated, the most intellectual, rejected that model on the cultural level because it does not respect the man, oppresses him spiritually and politically.
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These reductions in airborne pollutants and improvements in air quality are especially impressive in that U.S. Gross Domestic Product increased roughly 150 percent since 1970, and energy consumption increased by roughly 40 percent since 1970. Even holding the line on air pollution at 1970 levels would have been quite impressive given the substantial increase in U.S. population and economic and industrial activity.
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Wente: Kpenhamn var inget politiskt haveri. Det var ett intellektuellt haveri av s hpnadsvckande karaktr att framtida generationer kommer att frvnas ver dess blinda naivitet. Kpenhamn var ett klassiskt fall av en kejsare utan klder.
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They were on a roll and they continued stating The global climate warming is not solely affected by the CO2 greenhouse effect. The best example is temperature obviously cooling however atmospheric CO2 concentration is ascending from 1940s to 1970s. Although the CO2 greenhouse effect on global climate changes is unsuspicious, it could have been excessively exaggerated. It is high time to re-consider the global climate changes.
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What the United States and Canada are experiencing right now is making global warming alarmists such as Al Gore look quite foolish. The following are 10 of Al Gores stupidest global warming quotes
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Is global warming causing snow to melt thereby increasing the flow in the winter season? Absolutely not. St. George discovers that Streamflow between October and March is most strongly related to precipitation between August and October, with significant relationships observed using lags up to 6 months. Sure enough, he finds that Rising winter discharge across the basin has coincided with increasing annual and seasonal precipitation and that This change largely reflects increases in summer (MayJuly) and autumn (AugustOctober) precipitation, as no significant trends were observed for winter (November to January) precipitation.
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Schumer opens: "Thank you for writing to express your opposition to tax credits, and subsidies for alternative energy. I share your opposition to unsuccessful and unnecessary subsides."
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Coauthors of Rutherford et al (J Climate 2005) ( pdf ) were Rutherford, Mann, Bradley, Hughes, Jones, Osborn and Briffa. Its editor was Andrew Weaver. It was formally submitted on Sept 16, 2003, received two reviews in January 2004, revised and resubmitted on June 29, 2004, accepted without revision on September 27, 2004 and published in July 2005.
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It is abundantly clear from Stambaugh et al.'s findings that there is nothing unusual, unnatural or unprecedented about any 20th or 21st century droughts that may have occurred throughout the agricultural heartland of the United States. It is also clear that the much greater droughts of the past millennium occurred during periods of both relative cold and relative warmth, as well as the transitions between them. Thus, to testify that "droughts are becoming longer and more intense," and to imply that they are doing so because of global warming, is to be doubly disingenuous.
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A recent report published by the Global Warming Policy Foundation and written by Princeton professor William Happerone of nation's pre-eminent physicistsexplains how and why the public has been misled about the global warming threat. He begins by quoting the forward written by Charles Mackay for the book "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds":
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putting more energy into it (in the post-industrial age, energy means
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Nor can it do so without encouraging the agency to fool and trick Congress, as it didduring the Senate debates on the the Murkowski resolution and Inhofe legislation, when statements by McCarthy and the Air Office seemingly disavowed any ambition to bankrupt investors in new coal power plants. Whatever their party affiliation or views on climate change, Senators should dislike being hoodwinked.
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In 2003 and 2005, I was working to pass the Clear Skies bill, which was the most aggressive initiative in history to reduce emissions of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and mercury in fact, this bill would have reduced mercury emissions by 70% by 2018. So in just 6 years from now, we would already have had a 70% reduction. It was a plan that would have improved our air by reducing utility emissions faster, cheaper, and more efficiently than the Clean Air Act as it still stands today. And it would have done all this without harming jobs.
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Heres Dr David Jones from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology in 2008
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The central page for information on The Thompsons is now listed on the blogroll on the right hand column so its easier to find.
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For more on the study the Obama administration did not want you to read, see here and here.
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A considerably more important issue is foreign trade. Opponents of freer trade tend to aggregate support and have arguments that appeal to certain voters. Labor unions reflexively oppose trade agreements, in memory of all those auto and steel jobs that disappeared some 35 years ago. Immigration restrictionists fear trade pacts would increase guest worker immigration.
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Judge Kavanaugh argues that rewriting the CAA not only exceeds the EPA?s statutory authority, it is also unnecessary because the PSD provisions can and should be read as applying only to pollutants regulated under the national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) program. There are no NAAQS for GHGs.
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Of course, it doesn't make any sense for automakers to conform to two different fuel efficiency regulations, which is why the Bush administration refused to allow California to set its own standard. President Obama simply substituted Congress's 2002 CAFE targets with California's.
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30 inches (75 cm) of snow were measured in Zurich-Fluntern, more than has ever been seen here since the measurements were taken in 1949.
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The photosynthetic capacities of all six species were limited by the current low value of the atmosphere's CO 2 concentration. In addition, the stomatal conductances of all species declined with increasing CO 2 , so that their water use efficiencies all rose as the air's CO 2 content climbed. What it means
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At the very end, about 27 minutes, they find web sites with creation dates prior to the event as memorials
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Direct studies of sea level are showing only small rises. Sea level data for the United States and a few other countries can be sighted at: http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends.shtml . Most stations show a rise of sea level of about 1.7mm per year, but there is considerable variation even within a single state. Australian records can be sighted in Parker et al. 2013.
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What do you think? Watch the Audi ad, and post a comment!
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I owe you this oneSierra Rayne says precip in the NE is in the range of usual
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Congratulations on being asked to speak to Congress about climate change and security.
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Read it first: Climate/Energy section of Obama SOTU here!
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A study by Navigant Consulting, prepared for Arizona Public Service utilities, showed that the amount solar customers pay for electricity (after bill credits) is below the utilities costs for servicing those customers. Utilities must then charge its non-solar customers to cover the fixed costs solar customers are avoiding in self-generation, leading to higher bills for those non-solar customers.
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Oh, and those aren?t just failed forecasts?they are failed hindcasts. Even knowing the answer, the climate modelers can?t explain why the Earth hasn?t warmed as fast as it was supposed to.
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The results of this study are just one more example of the almost embarrassingly obvious fact that data from all around the globe demonstrate the reality of the millennial-scale climatic oscillation that has brought the planet the Medieval Warm Period, the Little Ice Age and now the Modern Warm Period, along with earlier named and unnamed climatic intervals of like nature, totally independent of changes in the air's CO 2 concentration. References
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But I haven't told you that they generally do so to different extents. The ratio of the two Higgs doublets' vacuum expectation values
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5. (Posts chart of accumulated cyclone energy trends) ???And consequently, an inconvenient truth is, the tropical cyclone accumulated energy is down at record low levels, not record high levels.??
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Indeed, coming after three of the last four years being the coldest since 1996, the warmth in 2014 is no more than a reflection of the weather.
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CEI Experts Available to Comment: Senior Fellow Iain Murray on what every citizen should know about global warming.
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Science the GOP cant wish away , November 19 th 2010
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Hawaii: $340 M in Solar Credits in last 10 years
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Krull et al . conclude their paper by saying their findings "stress the importance of viewing soils as dynamic systems and indicating the potential for soil organic carbon sequestration in grazed semi-arid woodlands," which land use represents a form of agroforestry whose virtues have recently been touted by Mutuo et al . (2005) .?? Also, their findings suggest the operation of an important negative feedback phenomenon that has the potential to slow the rate-of-rise of the air's CO 2 content, wherein the ongoing enrichment of the air with CO 2 from the burning of fossil fuels enables woody species to more readily colonize less productive grasslands and thereby extract greater amounts of CO 2 from the atmosphere, which tends to retard atmospheric CO 2 's upward concentration trend while simultaneously providing many benefits to the soil and the plants that grow upon it. References
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In the words of Schubert and Jahren, "if the below-ground biomass enhancement that we have quantified for R. sativus represents a generalized root-crop response that can be extrapolated to agricultural systems, below-ground fertilization under very high CO 2 levels could dramatically augment crop production in some of the poorest nations of the world." And "needless to say," as they continue, "a doubling or tripling of below-ground crop tissue due to CO 2 fertilization would be welcome on both a nutritional and economic basis." References
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being run up under the Toxic Assets Relief Program or the 2009 stimulus
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"My plan will keep these investments, and we'll keep reducing the carbon pollution that's also heating the planet, because climate change isn't a hoax. The droughts we've seen, the floods, the wildfires those aren't a joke. They're a threat to our children's future. And we can do something about it. That's part of what's at stake in this election," Obama said.
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Disadvantages: There are two main disadvantages of using only one data set. These are: one may be suspected of cherry picking and one increases error. The difficulties with the first can be largely minimized by explaining ones data choice prior to performing an analysis.
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There's a lot more agreement about (1) a modest warming trend since about 1850 than there is about (2) the cause of that trend. There's even less agreement about (3) the dangers of that trend, or of (4) what to do about it. But these four propositions are frequently bundled together, so that if you doubt one, you're labeled a climate change "skeptic" or "denier." That's just plain intellectually dishonest. When well-established claims are fused with separate, more controversial claims, and the entire conglomeration is covered with the label "consensus," you have reason for doubt.
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Peer review is a way of screening out opposing views. Skeptics of climate change have a difficult time getting published.
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We were very excited when we realized a lot of changes in the past century from warmer to cooler and then back to warmer were all natural, says Anastosios Tsonis, University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee. Read more here .
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So is the atmosphere being heated from the top down or from the bottom up? The answer must be both. The Sun is heating mass, but only where there is mass. So the Greenhouse Gases must absorb the incoming infrared, and this is most easily illustrated by Water Vapour and clouds. For the full scientific argument on how this is done I would refer the reader to the paper by Hans Schreuder, Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere cool the Earth. (Affix link here). Clearly as Hans Schreuder argues the Greenhouse Gases absorb incoming radiation near-IR, which is far greater than far-IR, and therefore the Greenhouse Gases, far from causing warming, do exactly the opposite, - they have a net cooling effect, and this has been confirmed by NASA.
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I have one very serious criticism of Anthonys post on the issue. He left out an important reference to Knowles et al 2006, who provided a definite comment on the citation issue in a 2006 conference.
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The find was likened to the Bakken and Eagle Ford shale oil projects in the US, which have resulted in massive outflows and have led to predictions that the US could overtake Saudi Arabia as the world??s largest oil producer as soon as this year.
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America's oil and gas boom has the potential to jump-start the economy by lowering consumers' energy costs and attracting energy-intensive manufacturing in search of low-cost energy. The oil boom has come about despite, not because of, government policies.
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So how does dreck end up getting published in journals? McIntyre quotes Andrew Weaver:
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McIntyre doesnt just use bad (or out of context) data, he also *manufactures his own* if bad data arent readily available:
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Whilst its a tad galling hearing the Copernicus denying church issuing a fatwa against global warming, its perhaps a sign that the end is really nigh for this scam. This is how the Gaurdian reported this Santa Claus (or rearranged Satans clau present from the Vatican)
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Though this may be obvious to readers, its worth repeating once in a while the chain of reasoning that must all be true for dramatic government action to be justified in reducing CO2. That chain is roughly as follows:
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In a nutshell, the issue is rather simple, yet powerful. Salby is arguing that atmospheric CO2 increase that we observe is a product of temperature increase, and not the other way around, meaning it is a product of natural variation.
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Though it has its limits, the peer-review process is meant to provide checks and balances, to weed out bad and misleading work, and to bring some measure of objectivity to scientific research. At its best, it can do that. But when the same few people review and approve each other's work, you invariably get conflicts of interest. This weakens the case for the supposed consensus, and becomes, instead, another reason to be suspicious. Nerds who follow the climate debate blogosphere have known for years about the cliquish nature of publishing and peer review in climate science (see here, for example).
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The worlds response to climate change is deeply flawed. The conventional wisdom on how to deal with climate change has failed and its time to change course. To date, climate policies have been guided by targets and timetables for emissions reduction derived from various academic exercises. Such methods are both oblivious to and in violation of on-the-ground political and technological realities that serve as practical boundary conditions for effective policy making. Until climate policies are designed with respect for these boundary conditions, failure is certain. Using nothing more than arithmetic and logical explanation, this talk provides a comprehensive exploration of the problem and a proposal for a more effective way forward.
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I guess its the number of people who dont believe the so-called greenhouse effect exists (I still get e-mails from them, even today), combined with the difficulty of convincing them that their everyday experience is consistent with its existence.
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The latest concern is that melting glaciers and collapsing ice shelves will lead to a massive water crisis. The left-wing British newspaper The Guardian claims that "climate change is causing increasingly rapid melting of the ice" and that this will damage "communities that rely on meltwater for irrigation, hydroelectric schemes and drinking". The loss of ice will "increase sea levels worldwide". Even where glaciers are expanding in Scandinavia (and Alaska) this is apparently due to increased snowfall "also caused by climate change". So whether it is an expanding or a receding glacier, human-induced climate change is to blame.
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Figure 2 shows what happens when I apply this correction to the "observed" data in Figure 1 and then re-calculate the temperature change. The overall warming trend declines from the "observed" rate of 0.116 C/decade to a "corrected" rate of 0.092 C/decade. So EPA's "observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century" has now dropped from 0.702 C to a "corrected" value of 0.552 C and 21% of EPA's increase from "anthropogenic GHG" increases has now vanished, lost to errors in the observed data.
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By contrast, the US has not been hit by a major hurricane in almost nine years. Climate experts say hurricanes are getting worse.
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The study that was inserted is a much more up-to-date survey of what we know about the natural variability of temperature, which suggests the Earth has been much warmer than it is presently (during the "medieval warm period" when Greenland was colonized and wine grapes grown in England). It is interesting that of all the funding agencies that contributed to the new study, the Times noted only the American Petroleum Institute, which provided the small amount of funding necessary to finish and publish the study. Ninety percent of the study's funding actually came from the governmentthe Air Force Office of Scientific Research, NASA, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
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The Santa Fe New Mexican's headline for Hansen's visit was: "A steep energy tax to curb global warming." Perhaps Hansen was tipping his hand, confirming the rumor that Obama will approve the long-delayed, but much-needed Keystone pipeline if Congress will approve a carbon tax. Tit for tat.
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In 2014, domestic oil production soared to 8.66 million barrels per day. Thus, between 2005 and 2014, U.S. oil output grew by 3.4 million barrels per day, which is nearly five and a half times the energy output of the entire ethanol sector.
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Remembering Adam Smith this July 4th (Part I)
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NJ PUC rejects offshore wind project as uneconomical
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We can be better prepared for drought and wildfires by improving forest management as this column previously suggested in the aftermath of the deadly California wildfires of 2003.
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The answer to #1 is yes, it is settled science.
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Use all the standard data sets thought reliable.
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Planet Earths history of climate change (CC) is about 4,500,000,000 years in the making. Why would anyone think that it stopped yesterday, last year, last decade, last century, or even a millennium ago? Do you think the rate or direction of natural CC has changed because the dinosaurs died out many million years ago? Or do you believe it was because humans arrived en masse on the scene a few thousand years ago?
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So, whats going on with the sun? The latest research was presented at the Nagoya Workshop on the Relationship between Solar Activity and Climate Changes .
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29 But he is a Jew, which is one inwardly; and circumcision is that of the heart, in the spirit, and not in the letter; whose praise is not of men, but of God.
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The US Navy is forecasting an increase in ice around Newfoundland and the Barents Sea this week, which would likely push Arctic ice area above the 30 year mean.
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Dark Matter Search Results Using the Silicon Detectors of CDMS II (arXiv)
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Looming over the villages, the two largest glaciers in the Alpsthe Aletsch (satellite picture) and Fiescher (satellite picture)grew over the next two centuries, reaching their maximum lengths around 1850. Around that time, the Aletsch stretched some 16 miles (26 kilometers); the Fiescher was larger by similar proportions, though exact measurements arent available for the smaller glacier.
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What this graph shows is very simple, but also very powerful: The radiative variations CERES measures look nothing like what the radiative feedback should look like. You can put in any feedback parameter you want (the IPCC models range from 0.91 to 1.87I think it could be more like 3 to 6 in the real climate system), and you will come to the same conclusion.
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Our thorough studies demonstrated that there was no evidence of increases in the frequency or magnitude of floods and droughts. This is not what the UNFCCC wanted to hear.
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Laltrimenti great Armando Massarenti simplifies a bit too sulleugenetica speech in his column on Sunday Philosophy Minimum Sole24Ore, on September 10 last (nellarticolo All subscribers to the stupidity of Hitler)
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We continually hear such assertions as "2014 was the planet's warmest year on record fourteen of the fifteen hottest years on record have all fallen in the first 15 years of this century." Perhaps surprisingly, such factoids are far less informative than many seem to assume. The recent year-to-year differences are almost never statistically significant. More important, the "hottest year" rhetoric is based on the surface temperature record, a collection of data that is deeply problematic, with heat-island effects difficult to expunge from the data, poor placement and shifts in the measurement stations, etc. An example: For over a century, "China" was 137 monitoring stations in four cities, and as those cities grew, "China" warmed. Surprise!
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The project will be run through C40, a coalition of major cities around the world that united to study the impact of climate change on their municipalities. The group, chaired by Bloomberg, merged two years ago with the Clinton Climate Initiativean offshoot of Clintons philanthropic foundation.
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If we apply the MAGICC/SCENGEN climate simulator developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, and used by both IPCC and the EPA, and assume an 80 percent reduction in GHG emissions by the OECD90 (North America, Western Europe, Australia, New Zealand, and Japan), the warming averted by 2100 would be about 0.3 C. If Asia also reduces emissions by 80 percent, that would increase the averted warming by about another 1.1 C , for a total close to the goal envisioned in the carbon budget relative to RCP8.5. Can anyone possibly believe that emission reductions of 80 percent are anything other than a fantasy?
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Estimates of a carbon tax's impact on world temperature do not lend much support for a carbon tax. Climatologists Pat Michaels and Chip Knappenberger provides an online calculator to estimate the impact of various cuts in CO2 emissions. The calculations are based on the MAGICC model developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research.
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For nearly 14 years, Democrats have tried to persuade Americans that, after the disaster of 1994, they were no longer interested in making sweeping changes to the nation s health-care system.
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The bbmle package has a profile function that applies to mle2 output, which has a special-purpose plot attached to it (the style of which I applied in the above graph).
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The Honorable James M. Inhofe (R-OK)
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The actual temperature data indicates the opposite. Since 1998 , the U.S. temperature trend has been a negative 3.2F degrees/century - yes, that is a minus trend covering the 16-year period from December 1997 through November 2013. And as this recent article about Alaska's cooling since the turn of the century confirms, its forest fires have not been a result of 21st century "global warming."
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Long-anticipated results of the CLOUD experiment at CERN in Geneva appear in tomorrows issue of the journalNature(25 August). The Director General of CERN stirred controversy last month, by saying that the CLOUD teams report should be politically correct about climate change (see my 17 July post). The implication was that they should on no account endorse the Danish heresy Henrik Svensmarks hypothesis that most of the global warming of the 20th Century can be explained by the reduction in cosmic rays due to livelier solar activity, resulting in less low cloud cover and warmer surface temperatures.
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The official high temperature in Fort Collins today was 98 degrees, two degrees cooler than 1936. According to the rhetoric of the newspaper, 1936 shattered 2012 temperatures.
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The Corner on National Review Online In short, by opposing all drilling in Anwar, off the coasts, the continental shelf, and omitting any reference to coal, tar sands, shale, or nuclear, he apparently thinks that millions of acres of new solar panels and hundreds of thousands of wind turbines dotting our mountain crests and deserts, together with millions more acres devoted to corn, will somehow bring gas prices down or make energy more affordable. But this is absolute lunacy , and no one in the media seems willing to have him explain just how many megawatts, and how many gallons of biofuels he hopes to produce, and how millions of jobs will be created therein and how our energy prices thereby will become affordable.
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While it's hardly mentioned in the media, the U.S. is currently in an extended and intense hurricane "drought." The last Category 3 or stronger storm to make landfall was Wilma in 2005. The more than seven years since then is the longest such span in over a century.
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These results are quite striking. By 2035, the economy would experience an average positive employment differential of over 700,000 jobs with a peak employment differential of 1.5 million jobs. Chart 2 illustrates the impact of lifting these regulations on overall employment, across the American economy.
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Listeners ended up the twilight zone?? Emerson saying the Met office predicts warming too. Does he realize that (a) the Met office have been predicting future warming every year for the last 16 years (and look how well that worked out for them), and (b) even if they are right and it warms to freakishly hot conditions in a monster El Nino in, say, 2014, unless some kind of time-bending wormhole is fritzing current physics, there is no way that can affect the trend as measured between 1997 to 2012? Do I need to explain why?
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In 2005, Professor Flannery, a climate advisor to the Australian Government, predicted Sydney would be covered by 20 metres of water by the year 2050 (45 years-times). This is 444mm per year. Error to date is 26,144%
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10 But glory, honour, and peace, to every man that worketh good, to the Jew first, and also to the Gentile:
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The past 4 years have seen 12 major landfalling hurricanes, very low but not unprecedented ??? 1984-1987 had just 11. The most is 35 (2005-2008).
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The camcorder was running at 18.3 frames per second. It's being said that in the frame 160, there was the first shot that missed everything. After 220, there was the second shot (magic bullet) that hit the governor in front as well as JFK (non-fatally). They react in some way. The third shot at 313 was used to make JFK's head explode which turned out to be lethal. The time between the first and third shot was probably over 8 seconds.
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