text: A paper published today in the Journal of Climate finds that ensembles of climate models used by the IPCC to predict future climate change"may lead to overly confident climate predictions." The authors find that many models share the same computer code, have the same limitations, and "tend to be fairly similar," resulting in confirmation bias. Indeed, empirical observations have shown far less warming than the "90% confident" IPCC models in AR4, as shown in this poster by John Christy: