S0000B: Prevention of Cataract and Age-Related Macular Degeneration With Vitamin E and Selenium - SELECT Eye Endpoints (SEE)
Phase: PHASE3
Conditions: Cataract, Macular Degeneration
Sponsor: SWOG Cancer Research Network

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
September 1, 2015 
 
 
TO: 
Principal Investigators and Head Clinical Research Associates at Participating Study 
Centers and Study Sites listed in Appendix 19.5 of the SELECT protocol 
 
 
FROM: 
Dana B. Sparks, M.A.T. - Protocol Product Line Manager 
 
 
RE: 
S0000B, "Prevention of Cataract and Age-Related Macular Degeneration with Vitamin E 
and Selenium – SELECT Eye Endpoints (SEE), Phase III Ancillary to S0000 - SELECT." 
Study Coordinators:  Drs. W. Christen, R.J. Glynn and J.M. Gaziano. 
 
STATUS NOTICE 
 
Study Coordinator:  William Christen, Sc.D. 
Phone number:  617/278-0795 
E-mail:  wchristen@rics.bwh.harvard.edu 
 
IRB Review Requirements 
 
(   ) 
Full board review required.  Reason: 
 
(   ) 
Initial activation (should your institution choose to participate) 
 
(   ) 
Increased risk to patient 
 
(   ) 
Complete study redesign 
 
(   ) 
Addition of tissue banking requirements 
 
(   ) 
Study closure due to new risk information 
 
(  ) 
Expedited review allowed 
 
(   ) 
No review required 
 
 
PERMANENT CLOSURE  
 
The study referenced above was permanently closed effective July 31, 2015, as the accrual has 
been met. 
 
 
cc: 
SELECT Statistical Center Staff - Phyllis Goodman, M.S.; Jo Ann Hartline, M.P.H., M.S.W. 
Elaine Armstrong, M.S. - Quality Assurance 
William Christen, Sc.D. – SEE 
Robert Glynn, Sc.D. - SEE 
 
              
Operations Office 
4201 Medical Drive, Suite 250, San Antonio, TX 78229 • Telephone 210-614-8808 • FAX 210-614-0006 • http://www.swog.org 

-XO\


72
3ULQFLSDO ,QYHVWLJDWRUV DQG +HDG &OLQLFDO 5HVHDUFK $VVRFLDWHV DW 3DUWLFLSDWLQJ 6WXG\
&HQWHUVDQG6WXG\6LWHVOLVWHGLQ$SSHQGL[RIWKH6(/(&7SURWRFRO
)520
'DQD%6SDUNV0$7±'LUHFWRURI2SHUDWLRQVDQG3URWRFROV
5(
6%3UHYHQWLRQRI&DWDUDFWDQG$JH5HODWHG0DFXODU'HJHQHUDWLRQZLWK9LWDPLQ(
DQG6HOHQLXP±6(/(&7(\H(QGSRLQWV6((3KDVH,,,$QFLOODU\WR66(/(&7
6WXG\&RRUGLQDWRUV'UV:&KULVWHQ5-*O\QQDQG-0*D]LDQR
67$786127,&(
6WXG\&RRUGLQDWRU:LOOLDP&KULVWHQ6F'
3KRQHQXPEHU
(PDLOZFKULVWHQ#ULFVEZKKDUYDUGHGX
,5%5HYLHZ5HTXLUHPHQWV

)XOOERDUGUHYLHZUHTXLUHG5HDVRQ


,QLWLDODFWLYDWLRQVKRXOG\RXULQVWLWXWLRQFKRRVHWRSDUWLFLSDWH


,QFUHDVHGULVNWRSDWLHQW


&RPSOHWHVWXG\UHGHVLJQ


$GGLWLRQRIWLVVXHEDQNLQJUHTXLUHPHQWV


6WXG\FORVXUHGXHWRQHZULVNLQIRUPDWLRQ


([SHGLWHGUHYLHZDOORZHG


1RUHYLHZUHTXLUHG


5($&7,9$7,21

(IIHFWLYH-XO\WKHVWXG\UHIHUHQFHGDERYHLVEHLQJUHRSHQHGIRUSDUWLFLSDWLRQ
3OHDVHDWWDFKWKLVPHPRUDQGXPWRWKHIURQWRI\RXUFRS\RIWKHSURWRFRO

7KLVPHPRUDQGXPVHUYHVWRQRWLI\WKH1&,DQG6RXWKZHVW2QFRORJ\*URXS6WDWLVWLFDO&HQWHU
FF
6(/(&76WDWLVWLFDO&HQWHU6WDII3K\OOLV*RRGPDQ06-R$QQ+DUWOLQH03+06:
6(/(&76WXG\&RRUGLQDWRUV
3DUWLFLSDWLQJ&RRSHUDWLYH*URXSV
(ODLQH$UPVWURQJ064XDOLW\$VVXUDQFH
:LOOLDP&KULVWHQ6F'±6((
5REHUW*O\QQ6F'6((


2SHUDWLRQV2IILFH
0HGLFDO'ULYH6XLWH6DQ$QWRQLR7;7HOHSKRQH)$;KWWSVZRJRUJ
&/26('())(&7,9(
QJ 6WXG\
QJ 6WXG\
HUDWLRQZLWK9LW
WLRQZLWK9L
U\WR
U\WR 6
6


]LDQR
]LDQR
DVRQ
DVRQ
VKRXOG\RXULQ
VKRXOG\RXULQ
NWRSDWLHQW
WRSDWLH
VWXG\UHGHVLJQ
WXG\UHGHVLJ
RIWLVVXHEDQN
WLVVXHE
FORVXUHGXHWR
FORVXUHGXHW
YLHZDOORZHG
YLHZDOORZHG
HZUHTXLUHG
HZUHTXLU
()


WKHV
KH
FKWKLVPHPRU
FKWKLVPHPR
PHPRUDQGXP
PHPRUDQGXP
FF
6
FF

'HFHPEHU


72
3ULQFLSDO ,QYHVWLJDWRUV DQG +HDG &OLQLFDO 5HVHDUFK $VVRFLDWHV DW 3DUWLFLSDWLQJ 6WXG\
&HQWHUVDQG6WXG\6LWHVOLVWHGLQ$SSHQGL[RIWKH6(/(&7SURWRFRO

)520
'DQD%6SDUNV0$73URWRFRO3URGXFW/LQH0DQDJHU

5(
6%3UHYHQWLRQRI&DWDUDFWDQG$JH5HODWHG0DFXODU'HJHQHUDWLRQZLWK9LWDPLQ
( DQG 6HOHQLXP ± 6(/(&7 (\H (QGSRLQWV 6(( 3KDVH ,,, $QFLOODU\ WR 6 
6(/(&76WXG\&RRUGLQDWRUV'UV:&KULVWHQ5-*O\QQDQG-0*D]LDQR

67$786127,&(

6WXG\&RRUGLQDWRU:LOOLDP&KULVWHQ6F'
3KRQHQXPEHU
(PDLOZFKULVWHQ#ULFVEZKKDUYDUGHGX

,5%5HYLHZ5HTXLUHPHQWV

)XOOERDUGUHYLHZUHTXLUHG5HDVRQ

,QLWLDODFWLYDWLRQVKRXOG\RXULQVWLWXWLRQFKRRVHWRSDUWLFLSDWH

,QFUHDVHGULVNWRSDWLHQW

&RPSOHWHVWXG\UHGHVLJQ

$GGLWLRQRIWLVVXHEDQNLQJUHTXLUHPHQWV

6WXG\FORVXUHQRWEXLOWLQWRVWXG\GHVLJQ

¥ 
([SHGLWHGUHYLHZDOORZHG


1RUHYLHZUHTXLUHG

7(0325$5<&/2685(

7KH VWXG\ UHIHUHQFHG DERYH ZLOO EH WHPSRUDULO\ FORVHG HIIHFWLYH 'HFHPEHU   XQWLO IXUWKHU
IXQGLQJLVLGHQWLILHG

3OHDVHDWWDFKWKLVQRWLFHWRWKHIURQWRIWKHSURWRFRO



FF
6(/(&76WDWLVWLFDO&HQWHU6WDII3K\OOLV*RRGPDQ06-R$QQ+DUWOLQH03+06:
6(/(&76WXG\&RRUGLQDWRUV
3DUWLFLSDWLQJ&RRSHUDWLYH*URXSV
9$3KDUPDF\&RRUGLQDWLQJ&HQWHU-XOLD9HUWUHHV3KDUP'%&33
1&,)UHGHULFN'HPHWULXV$OEDQHV0'
(ODLQH$UPVWURQJ064XDOLW\$VVXUDQFH
:LOOLDP&KULVWHQ6F'6((







2SHUDWLRQV2IILFH
0HGLFDO'ULYH6XLWH6DQ$QWRQLR7;7HOHSKRQH)$;KWWSVZRJRUJ
&/26('())(&7,9(
6WXG\
WXG
DWLRQZLWK9LWD
RQZLWK9LW
$QFLOODU\ WR
FLOODU\
6
6
-0*D]LDQR
0*D]LDQ
QVWLWXWLRQFKRRV
QVWLWXWLRQFKRRV
NLQJUHTXLUHPHQ
NLQJUHTXLUH
XLOWLQWRVWXG\G
XLOWLQWRVWXG\G
ZDOORZHG
DOORZHG
HTXLUHG
HTXLUHG
))
HG DERYH
DERYH ZLOO
ZLO
HG
HG
KWKLVQRWLFHWR
KWKLVQRWLFH

6(/(&7
6(/(&7
6(/(
6(/(
3D


2FWREHU

72
3ULQFLSDO ,QYHVWLJDWRUV DQG +HDG &OLQLFDO 5HVHDUFK $VVRFLDWHV DW 3DUWLFLSDWLQJ 6WXG\
&HQWHUVDQG6WXG\6LWHVOLVWHGLQ$SSHQGL[RIWKH6(/(&7SURWRFRO
)520
'DQD%6SDUNV0$73URWRFRO3URGXFW/LQH0DQDJHU
5(
6%3UHYHQWLRQRI&DWDUDFWDQG$JH5HODWHG0DFXODU'HJHQHUDWLRQZLWK9LWDPLQ(
DQG6HOHQLXP±6(/(&7(\H(QGSRLQWV6((3KDVH,,,$QFLOODU\WR66(/(&7
6WXG\&RRUGLQDWRUV'UV:&KULVWHQ5-*O\QQDQG-0*D]LDQR
67$786127,&(
6WXG\&RRUGLQDWRU:LOOLDP&KULVWHQ6F'
3KRQHQXPEHU
(PDLOZFKULVWHQ#ULFVEZKKDUYDUGHGX
,5%5HYLHZ5HTXLUHPHQWV

)XOOERDUGUHYLHZUHTXLUHG5HDVRQ


,QLWLDODFWLYDWLRQVKRXOG\RXULQVWLWXWLRQFKRRVHWRSDUWLFLSDWH


,QFUHDVHGULVNWRSDWLHQW


&RPSOHWHVWXG\UHGHVLJQ


$GGLWLRQRIWLVVXHEDQNLQJUHTXLUHPHQWV


6WXG\FORVXUHGXHWRQHZULVNLQIRUPDWLRQ


([SHGLWHGUHYLHZDOORZHG


1RUHYLHZUHTXLUHG


3$57,$/&/2685(5(9,6,21

(IIHFWLYH1RYHPEHUDFFUXDORIQHZSDUWLFLSDQWVEDVHGVROHO\RQDGLDJQRVLVRIFDWDUDFWRUD
FDWDUDFWH[WUDFWLRQDWIROORZXSZLOOEHFORVHGDVWKHVWXG\KDVUHDFKHGWKHQHFHVVDU\DFFUXDOIRUWKLV
SDUWLFLSDQWJURXS

7KHYHUVLRQGDWHKDVEHHQXSGDWHGRQWKHIDFHSDJH7KLVLQIRUPDWLRQLVUHIOHFWHGLQ6HFWLRQSDJH
 6HFWLRQ  SDJH  DQG LQ WKH 0RGHO ,QIRUPHG &RQVHQW )RUP SDJH   $GGLWLRQDOO\ DV D
FODULILFDWLRQLQWZRSODFHVRQSDJHWKHSKUDVHDFXWHPDFXODUGHJHQHUDWLRQ$0'ZDVFKDQJHGWR
DJHUHODWHGPDFXODUGHJHQHUDWLRQ$0'

7KLVPHPRUDQGXPVHUYHVWRQRWLI\WKH1&,DQG6RXWKZHVW2QFRORJ\*URXS6WDWLVWLFDO&HQWHU
FF
6(/(&76WDWLVWLFDO&HQWHU6WDII3K\OOLV*RRGPDQ06-R$QQ+DUWOLQH03+06:
6(/(&76WXG\&RRUGLQDWRUV
3DUWLFLSDWLQJ&RRSHUDWLYH*URXSV
6DELQVD9ODGLPLU%DGPDHY0'3K'
5RFKH9LVKZD6LQJK3K'
1XWULFLD'DYLG6XOOLYDQ
3HUULJR0DUN0LQFH\
5REHUW*O\QQ6F'
9$3KDUPDF\&RRUGLQDWLQJ&HQWHU-XOLD9HUWUHHV3KDUP'%&33
1&,)UHGHULFN'HPHWULXV$OEDQHV0'
(ODLQH$UPVWURQJ064XDOLW\$VVXUDQFH
:LOOLDP&KULVWHQ6F'±6((
5REHUW*O\QQ6F'6((
2SHUDWLRQV2IILFH
2PLFURQ'ULYH6DQ$QWRQLR7;7HOHSKRQH)$;KWWSZZZVZRJRUJ
&/26('())(&7,9(
LWDPLQ(
WDPLQ(
6(/(&7
6(/(&
XWLRQFKRRVHWR
RQFKRRVH
UHTXLUHPHQWV
UHTXLUHPHQW
ZULVNLQIRUPDW
ULVNLQIRUPDW
&7
$/&/2685(
/&/268
(&
RIQHZSDUWLF
RIQHZSDUWLF
OEHFORVHGDV
EHFORVHGD
XSGDWHGRQWKH
XSGDWHGRQW
 DQG LQ WKH
 DQG LQ WKH
FHVRQSDJH
FHVRQSDJH
UGHJHQHUDWLRQ
HJHQHUDWLR
GXPVHUYHVWR
GXPVHUYHVWR
(/(&76WDWLVW
(/(&76WDWLV
6(/(&76WXG
6(/(&76WXG
3DUWLFLSDWLQ
3DUWLFLSDWLQ
6DELQVD
6DELQVD
5RFKH
5RFK
1X
1
3

-XO\

72
3ULQFLSDO ,QYHVWLJDWRUV DQG +HDG &OLQLFDO 5HVHDUFK $VVRFLDWHV DW
3DUWLFLSDWLQJ6WXG\&HQWHUVDQG6WXG\6LWHVOLVWHGLQ$SSHQGL[RIWKH
6(/(&7SURWRFRO

)520
'DQD%6SDUNV0$73URWRFRO3URGXFW/LQH0DQDJHU

5(
6% 3UHYHQWLRQ RI &DWDUDFW DQG $JH5HODWHG 0DFXODU 'HJHQHUDWLRQ
ZLWK 9LWDPLQ ( DQG 6HOHQLXP ± 6(/(&7 (\H (QGSRLQWV 6(( 3KDVH ,,,
$QFLOODU\WR66(/(&76WXG\&RRUGLQDWRUV'UV:&KULVWHQ5-
*O\QQDQG-0*D]LDQR

67$786127,&(

6WXG\&RRUGLQDWRU:LOOLDP&KULVWHQ6F'
3KRQHQXPEHU
(PDLOZFKULVWHQ#ULFVEZKKDUYDUGHGX

,5%5HYLHZ5HTXLUHPHQWV

 )XOOERDUGUHYLHZUHTXLUHG5HDVRQ


,QLWLDODFWLYDWLRQVKRXOG\RXULQVWLWXWLRQFKRRVHWRSDUWLFLSDWH


,QFUHDVHGULVNWRSDWLHQW


&RPSOHWHVWXG\UHGHVLJQ


$GGLWLRQRIWLVVXHEDQNLQJUHTXLUHPHQWV


6WXG\FORVXUHQRWEXLOWLQWRVWXG\GHVLJQ

¥ ([SHGLWHGUHYLHZDOORZHGGXHWRPLQLPDOULVN

 1RUHYLHZUHTXLUHG


$&7,9$7,21

7KH VWXG\ UHIHUHQFHG DERYH ZLOO EH RIILFLDOO\ DFWLYDWHG IRU SDUWLFLSDQW UHFUXLWPHQW
HIIHFWLYH-XO\

,I \RXU LQVWLWXWLRQ LQWHQGV WR SDUWLFLSDWH LQ WKLV VWXG\ SOHDVH REWDLQ ORFDO ,5% DSSURYDO
GRFXPHQWRQWKHHQFORVHG,5%&HUWLILFDWLRQ)RUPDQGIRUZDUGDFRS\WRWKH2SHUDWLRQV
2IILFHE\)$;DW

7KLV PHPRUDQGXP VHUYHV WR QRWLI\ WKH 1&, DQG 6RXWKZHVW 2QFRORJ\ *URXS 6WDWLVWLFDO
&HQWHU

FF
6(/(&76WDWLVWLFDO&HQWHU6WDII3K\OOLV*RRGPDQ06-R$QQ+DUWOLQH03+06:
6(/(&76WXG\&RRUGLQDWRUV
3DUWLFLSDWLQJ&RRSHUDWLYH*URXSV
6DELQVD9ODGLPLU%DGPDHY0'3K'
5RFKH9LVKZD6LQJK3K'
1XWULFLD'DYLG6XOOLYDQ
3HUULJR0DUN0LQFH\
9$3KDUPDF\&RRUGLQDWLQJ&HQWHU-XOLD9HUWUHHV3KDUP'%&33
1&,)UHGHULFN'HPHWULXV$OEDQHV0'
(ODLQH$UPVWURQJ064XDOLW\$VVXUDQFH
:LOOLDP&KULVWHQ6F'6((

2SHUDWLRQV2IILFH
2PLFURQ'ULYH6DQ$QWRQLR7;7HOHSKRQH)$;KWWSZZZVZRJRUJ
&/26('())(&7,9(
UDWLRQ
UDWLRQ
3KDVH ,,,
KDVH ,,,
ULVWHQ5-
ULVWHQ5-
RXULQVWLWXWLRQF
LQVWLWXWLRQF
VLJQ
VLJQ
EDQNLQJUHTXLU
EDQNLQJUHT
RWEXLOWLQWRVWX
RWEXLOWLQWRVWX
DOORZHGGXHWR
ZHGGX
TXLUHG
XLUHG
)(
FHG DERYH Z
FHG DERYH


WXWLRQ LQWHQGV
WXWLRQ LQW
WRQWKHHQFOR
RQWKHHQ
E\)$;DW
E\)$;DW
KLV PHPRUDQ
LV PHPRUDQ
&HQWHU
&HQWHU
FF

35,9,/(*('&20081,&$7,21)25
6%
,19(67,*$7,21$/86(21/<

$FWLYDWHG-XO\

5HYLVHG
+$59$5'0(',&$/6&+22/$1'6287+:(6721&2/2*<*5283
35(9(17,212)&$7$5$&7$1'$*(5(/$7('0$&8/$5'(*(1(5$7,21
:,7+9,7$0,1($1'6(/(1,806(/(&7(<((1'32,1766((
3+$6(,,,$1&,//$5<7266(/(&7
3DJH


2%-(&7,9(6 

%$&.*5281'  

'58*,1)250$7,21  

67$*,1*&5,7(5,$  

(/,*,%,/,7<&5,7(5,$  

675$7,),&$7,21)$&7256  

75($70(173/$1 

72;,&,7,(672%(021,725('$1''26$*(02',),&$7,216  

678'<&$/(1'$5  

&5,7(5,$)25(9$/8$7,21$1'(1'32,17'(),1,7,216  

67$7,67,&$/&216,'(5$7,216 

',6&,3/,1(5(9,(: 

5(*,675$7,21*8,'(/,1(6  

'$7$68%0,66,216&+('8/(  

63(&,$/,16758&7,216 

(7+,&$/$1'5(*8/$725<&216,'(5$7,216 

%,%/,2*5$3+<  

0$67(5)25066(7  

3$57,&,3$176
6HH$SSHQGL[6HFWLRQLQPDLQ6(/(&7VWXG\6
678'<&225',1$7256

:LOOLDP&KULVWHQ6F'(SLGHPLRORJ\
-0LFKDHO*D]LDQR0'(SLGHPLRORJ\
'LYLVLRQRI3UHYHQWLYH0HGLFLQH
'LYLVLRQRI3UHYHQWLYH0HGLFLQH
%ULJKDPDQG:RPHQ¶V+RVSLWDO
%ULJKDP	:RPHQ
V+RVSLWDO
+DUYDUG0HGLFDO6FKRRO
+DUYDUG0HGLFDO6FKRRO
&RPPRQZHDOWK$YHQXH
&RPPRQZHDOWK$YHQXH
%RVWRQ0$
%RVWRQ0$
3KRQH
3KRQHH[W
)D[
)D[
(PDLOZFKULVWHQ#ULFVEZKKDUYDUGHGX
(PDLOJD]LDQR#PDYHULFRUJ

5REHUW-*O\QQ6F'%LRVWDWLVWLFV
'LYLVLRQRI3UHYHQWLYH0HGLFLQH
%ULJKDPDQG:RPHQ¶V+RVSLWDO
+DUYDUG0HGLFDO6FKRRO
&RPPRQZHDOWK$YHQXH
%RVWRQ0$
3KRQH
)D[
(PDLOUJO\QQ#ULFVEZKKDUYDUGHGX

PE

9HUVLRQ'DWH

&/26('())(&7,9(
3DJH
3DJH

 





 
 
 







&$7,216 
7,216 


1,7,216 
1,7,21










'(5
'(5$7,216
,21




FWLRQLQP
FWLRQLQ
HPLRORJ\
HPLRORJ\
GLFLQH
GLFLQH
+RVSLWDO
VSLWDO
RRO
RR
WK$YHQXH
K$YHQX






ZFKULVWHQ#ULF
ZFKULVWHQ#ULF
EHUW-*O\QQ6
EHUW-*O\QQ
LYLVLRQRI3UHY
LVLRQRI3UH
%ULJKDPDQG
JKDPDQ
+DUYDUG0
+DUYDUG0
&R
&R
%RVWR
%RVWR
3K
3

6%
3DJH

2%-(&7,9(6

7KHSULPDU\DQGVHFRQGDU\REMHFWLYHVLQYROYHWKHPDLQWUHDWPHQWHIIHFWRIHDFKVWXG\DJHQWRQ
$0'DQGFDWDUDFWHQGSRLQWV


3ULPDU\2EMHFWLYHV

D
7RWHVWZKHWKHUPJRIYLWDPLQ(UHGXFHVWKHULVNRIYLVXDOO\VLJQLILFDQW$0'

E
7RWHVWZKHWKHUJRIVHOHQLXPUHGXFHVWKHULVNRIYLVXDOO\VLJQLILFDQW$0'

F
7RWHVWZKHWKHUPJRIYLWDPLQ(UHGXFHVWKHULVNRIFDWDUDFW

G
7RWHVWZKHWKHUJRIVHOHQLXPUHGXFHVWKHULVNRIFDWDUDFW


6HFRQGDU\2EMHFWLYHV

D
7RWHVWZKHWKHUPJRIYLWDPLQ(UHGXFHVWKHULVNRIDGYDQFHG$0'

E
7RWHVWZKHWKHUJRIVHOHQLXPUHGXFHVWKHULVNRIDGYDQFHG$0'

F
7RWHVWZKHWKHUPJRIYLWDPLQ(UHGXFHVWKHULVNRIFDWDUDFWVXUJHU\DQG
VXEW\SHV

G
7R WHVW ZKHWKHU  J RI VHOHQLXP UHGXFHV WKH ULVN RI FDWDUDFW VXUJHU\ DQG
VXEW\SHV



%$&.*5281'

$JHUHODWHG PDFXODU GHJHQHUDWLRQ $0' DQG FDWDUDFW DUH WZR OHDGLQJ FDXVHV RI YLVXDO
LPSDLUPHQWLQROGHU$PHULFDQV$0'LVWKHOHDGLQJFDXVHRIYLVXDOLPSDLUPHQWDQGEOLQGQHVV
ZLWK DQ HVWLPDWHG  RI SHRSOH RYHU  \HDUV VKRZLQJ VRPH PDQLIHVWDWLRQ RI $0'   
0RUHWKDQRIWKHDGXOWSRSXODWLRQLQWKH86DJHG\HDUVDQGROGHUVXIIHUVIURPYLVXDOO\
VLJQLILFDQWFDWDUDFW7UHDWPHQWRSWLRQVIRU$0'DQGFDWDUDFWDUHOLPLWHGDQGQRWZLWKRXW
LPSRUWDQWGUDZEDFNV:KLOHODVHUSKRWRFRDJXODWLRQDQGPRUHUHFHQWO\SKRWRG\QDPLFWKHUDS\
KDYHEHHQVKRZQWREHRIEHQHILWIRUDPLQRULW\RISDWLHQWVZLWKDGYDQFHG$0'ODVHUWUHDWPHQW
PHUHO\GHOD\VVXEVHTXHQWYLVLRQORVVDQGWKHORQJWHUPHIIHFWVRISKRWRG\QDPLFWKHUDS\UHPDLQ
WR EH GHWHUPLQHG      &DWDUDFW VXUJHU\ DFFRXQWV IRU D ODUJH SURSRUWLRQ RI 0HGLFDUH
H[SHQGLWXUHV    7KXV WKH LGHQWLILFDWLRQ RI LQH[SHQVLYH VDIH VWUDWHJLHV WR SUHYHQW WKHVH
FRPPRQVRXUFHVRIRFXODUPRUELGLW\LVRISDUWLFXODUSXEOLFKHDOWKLPSRUWDQFH

2[LGDWLYHPHFKDQLVPVDUHEHOLHYHGWRFRQWULEXWHWRWKHFXPXODWLYHWLVVXHGDPDJHREVHUYHGLQ
WKHDJLQJUHWLQDDQGOHQV7KHUHLVDOVRJURZLQJHYLGHQFHWKDWWKHGHYHORSPHQWRI$0'
DQGFDWDUDFWPD\EHUHODWHGWRGLHWDU\KDELWVDQGLQSDUWLFXODUWRWKHOHYHORIDQWLR[LGDQWQXWULHQWV
FRQWDLQHGLQWKHGLHW+RZHYHUSUREOHPVLQDOWHULQJGLHWDU\EHKDYLRUDQGWKHQHHGIRUOLIHORQJ
LQWHUYHQWLRQ PDNH WKLV SUHYHQWLYH PHWKRG GLIILFXOW WR LPSOHPHQW  ,QVWHDG WKHUH KDV EHHQ
LQFUHDVLQJ PDUNHWLQJ DQG XVH RI DQWLR[LGDQW VXSSOHPHQWV LQFOXGLQJ H\HVSHFLILF SUHSDUDWLRQV
GHVSLWH WKH ODFN RI FRQYLQFLQJ HYLGHQFH VXSSRUWLQJ VXFK XVDJH  7KH UHFRJQLWLRQ RI WKH
LPSRUWDQFH RI R[LGDWLYH PHFKDQLVPV LQ $0' DQG FDWDUDFW WRJHWKHU ZLWK WKH LQFUHDVLQJ
FRQVXPSWLRQ RI YLWDPLQ VXSSOHPHQWV OHG WR WKH 1DWLRQDO (\H ,QVWLWXWHVSRQVRUHG $JH5HODWHG
(\H'LVHDVH6WXG\$5('6$5('6WHVWHGLQUDQGRPL]HGWULDOVWKHHIIHFWVRIGDLO\GRVHVRI
]LQFPJDQGDQDQWLR[LGDQWFRPELQDWLRQRIYLWDPLQ(,8YLWDPLQ&PJDQGEHWD
FDURWHQHPJRQWKHSURJUHVVLRQRI$0'DQGWKHHIIHFWRIWKHDQWLR[LGDQWFRPELQDWLRQRQWKH
GHYHORSPHQW DQG SURJUHVVLRQ RI OHQV RSDFLWLHV  7KH ILQDO UDQGRPL]HG WULDO UHVXOWV IRU $0'
EDVHGRQDQDYHUDJHRI\HDUVRIWUHDWPHQWDQGIROORZXSLQGLFDWHGDEHQHILWRI]LQFDORQHRU
LQFRPELQDWLRQZLWKDQWLR[LGDQWYLWDPLQVLQGHOD\LQJWKHSURJUHVVLRQWRDGYDQFHG$0'LQSHUVRQV
DW
&/26('())(&7,9(
$0'
0'
DQW$0'
QW$0'
FWW
NRIDGYDQFHG
NRIDGYDQFH
ULVNRIDGYDQ
ULVNRIDGYD
XFHVWKHULVN
VWKHUL
XP UHGXFHV WK
UHGXFHV W
$0' DQG
$0' DQG
 $0'LVWKH
$0'LVWKH
SOH RYHU  \H
SOH RYHU  \H
RSXODWLRQLQWK
RSXODWLRQLQ

 7UHDWPHQW
7UHDWPHQW
:KLOHODVHUSK
:KLOHODVHUSK
EHRIEHQHILWIR
HRIEHQHILW
HTXHQWYLVLRQ
HTXHQWYLVLRQ
G 
G    
  

  7KXV
  7KXV
XUFHVRIRFXODU
UFHVRIRFXOD
HPHFKDQLVP
HPHFKDQL
JLQJUHWLQDDQ
JLQJUHWLQDDQ
GFDWDUDFWPD
GFDWDUDFWPD
FRQWDLQHGLQW
FRQWDLQHGLQW
LQWHUYHQWLRQ
QWHUYHQWLRQ
LQFUHDVLQ
LQFUHDVLQ
GHVSLWH
HV
LPSR
LPS
FR
FR

6%
3DJH
KLJKULVN7KHGDWDDOVRVXJJHVWHGDULVNUHGXFWLRQRIIRUWKRVHWDNLQJDQWLR[LGDQWV
DORQH7KHUHVXOWVIRUFDWDUDFWLQGLFDWHGQRDSSDUHQWHIIHFWRIWKHDQWLR[LGDQWFRPELQDWLRQRQ
GHYHORSPHQWRUSURJUHVVLRQRIDJHUHODWHGOHQVRSDFLWLHVGXULQJWKH\HDUVRIWUHDWPHQWDQG
IROORZXS

7KHILQGLQJVLQ$5('6SDUWLFXODUO\DVWKH\SHUWDLQWR$0'DUHLPSRUWDQWIRUWKHRFXODUKHDOWKRI
WKHSXEOLFDQGFDQEHH[SHFWHGWRJHQHUDWHDQHZZDYHRIHQWKXVLDVPIRUVXSSOHPHQWDWLRQZLWK
DQWLR[LGDQWQXWULHQWV+RZHYHULPSRUWDQWTXHVWLRQVUHPDLQ)RUH[DPSOHWKHUHVXOWVIRU$0'LQ
$5('6 SHUWDLQ WR SURJUHVVLRQ WR DGYDQFHG GLVHDVH LQ SHUVRQV LQ WKH  KLJKHVW ULVN JURXSV
SHUVRQVZLWKH[WHQVLYHLQWHUPHGLDWHVL]HGUXVHQDWOHDVWODUJHGUXVHQRQFHQWUDOJHRJUDSKLF
DWURSK\LQRUERWKH\HVRUDGYDQFHG$0'RUYLVLRQORVVGXHWR$0'LQH\H>$0'&DWHJRULHV
DQG@$PRQJWKHSDUWLFLSDQWVLQWKHORZHUULVNJURXSVSHUVRQVZLWKQR$0'RUPLOG
RUERUGHUOLQHDJHUHODWHGPDFXODUIHDWXUHVLQFOXGLQJPXOWLSOHVPDOOGUXVHQVLQJOHRUQRQH[WHQVLYH
LQWHUPHGLDWHGUXVHQDQGRUSLJPHQWDEQRUPDOLWLHVLQRUERWKH\HVDQGYLVXDODFXLW\RIRU
EHWWHULQERWKH\HV>$0'&DWHJRULHVDQG@RQO\FDVHVRIDGYDQFHG$0'ZHUHQRWHGE\
\HDU7KXV$5('6KDGOLPLWHGSRZHUWRDVVHVVWKHEHQHILWRIVXSSOHPHQWDWLRQRQSURJUHVVLRQ
WRDGYDQFHG$0'RUHYHQWRHDUOLHUVWDJHVRI$0'LQSHUVRQVDWORZULVN6XFKDQHYDOXDWLRQ
LQ ORZ ULVN LQGLYLGXDOV LV QHHGHG KRZHYHU EHFDXVH HDUO\ $0' FDQ EH DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK VRPH
GHJUHHRIYLVLRQORVVEXWPRUHLPSRUWDQWO\LVVWURQJO\SUHGLFWLYHRIVXEVHTXHQWGHYHORSPHQWRI
DGYDQFHG$0'5HJDUGLQJFDWDUDFWWKH$5('6LQYHVWLJDWRUVUDLVHWKHSRVVLELOLW\WKDW
IRUPDQ\SDUWLFLSDQWVWKHLQWHUYHQWLRQPD\KDYHEHHQLQLWLDWHGWRRODWHLQWKHGLVHDVHSURFHVVRU
ZDV RI LQDGHTXDWH GXUDWLRQ IRU LW WR EH HIIHFWLYH  )LQDOO\ IRU ERWK $0' DQG FDWDUDFW WKH
LQGLYLGXDOHIIHFWVRIYLWDPLQ(YLWDPLQ&DQGEHWDFDURWHQHLQWKHDQWLR[LGDQWIRUPXODWLRQFRXOG
QRWEHHYDOXDWHGLQ$5('6DQGWKXVUHTXLUHIXUWKHUVWXG\WRFODULI\HIIHFWVRILQGLYLGXDOQXWULHQWV


7ZRDQWLR[LGDQWQXWULHQWVWKRXJKWWRRIIHUSURWHFWLRQIURPSKRWRR[LGDWLYHGDPDJHDUHYLWDPLQ(
DQG VHOHQLXP   9LWDPLQ ( LV D SRZHUIXO LQWUDFHOOXODU DQWLR[LGDQW WKDW UHGXFHV OLSLG
SHUR[LGDWLRQ DQG VHOHQLXP LV DQ HVVHQWLDO WUDFH QXWULHQW WKDW LV FULWLFDO IRU WKH DFWLYLW\ RI
JOXWDWKLRQH SHUR[LGDVH DQ HQGRJHQRXV DQWLR[LGDQW HQ]\PH WKDW SURWHFWV FHOOXODU PROHFXOHV
DJDLQVWR[LGDWLYHGDPDJH1XPHURXVEDVLFUHVHDUFKDQGREVHUYDWLRQDOHSLGHPLRORJLF
VWXGLHVVXJJHVWDSODXVLEOHUROHIRUWKHVHQXWULHQWVLQSDUWLFXODUYLWDPLQ(LQUHGXFLQJULVNVRI
DJHUHODWHGH\HGLVHDVH,QDGGLWLRQGDWDLQGLFDWHWKDWDFWLYLWLHVRIYLWDPLQ(DQGVHOHQLXPSOXV
VHOHQLXPGHSHQGHQWJOXWDWKLRQHSHUR[LGDVHDUHFRPSOHPHQWDU\DQGWKDWWKHVXSSOHPHQWVFRXOG
DFWV\QHUJLVWLFDOO\WRLQKLELW$0'DQGFDWDUDFWRJHQHVLV

,QFOXVLRQRI0LQRULWLHVDQG8QGHUVHUYHG8QLQVXUHG

,W LV D VWDQGLQJ SROLF\ RI WKH 6RXWKZHVW 2QFRORJ\ *URXS WR LQFOXGH HOLJLEOH SDWLHQWV DQGRU
SDUWLFLSDQWV RI ERWK VH[HV DQG DOO UDFHV DQG HWKQLFLWLHV LQ DOO *URXS FOLQLFDO WULDOV H[FHSW DV
UHVWULFWHG E\ VSHFLILF GLVHDVH VLWH HJ SURVWDWH J\QHFRORJLFDO  7KH SURSRVHG SDUWLFLSDQW
SRSXODWLRQIRUWKHIXOO6(/(&7VWXG\6ZLOOFRQVLVWRIPDOHVGXHWRWKHVSHFLILFGLVHDVH
VLWH SURVWDWH DQG ZLOO LQFOXGH PLQRULW\ SRSXODWLRQV LQFOXGLQJ EXW QRW OLPLWHG WR $IULFDQ
$PHULFDQV +LVSDQLFV $VLDQ$PHULFDQV DV ZHOO DV PHGLFDOO\ XQGHUVHUYHG SRSXODWLRQV  $V
$IULFDQ$PHULFDQPDOHVDUHDWKLJKHUULVNIRUWKHGHYHORSPHQWRISURVWDWHFDQFHUDQDWWHPSWZLOO
EHPDGHWRRYHUUHFUXLWWKLVSRSXODWLRQWKURXJKVSHFLILFUHFUXLWPHQWDQGDGKHUHQFHVWUDWHJLHV
3UHYLRXVPLQRULW\DFFUXDOLQ6RXWKZHVW2QFRORJ\*URXSJHQLWRXULQDU\DQGFDQFHUFRQWUROVWXGLHV
LQDQGRWKHUUHOHYDQWVWXGLHVLVVKRZQEHORZ

&/26('())(&7,9(
I
ZLWK
0'LQ
'L
JURXSV
JURXSV
JHRJUDSKLF
HRJUDS
'&DWHJRULHV
'&DWHJRULH
QR$0'RUPL
QR$0'RUP
HRUQRQH[WHQ
RUQRQH[WH
XDODFXLW\RI
ODFXLW\RI
HG$0'ZHUH
G$0'ZHUH
PHQWDWLRQRQ
HQWDWLRQRQ
RZULVN6XFK
ZULVN6X
FDQ EH DVVRF
FDQ EH DVVRF
HRI
RI VXEVHTXH
VXEVHT
YH
YHVWLJDWRUVUD
VWLJDWRUVUD
WHGWRRODWHLQ
WRRODWHLQ
QDOO\ IRU ERW
QDOO\ IRU ER
URWHQHLQWKH
RWHQH
VWXG\WRFODUL
VWXG\WRFOD
RWHFWLRQIURP
RWHFWLRQIURP
SRZHUIXO LQWUD
SRZHUIXO LQ
VHQWLDO WUDFH
VHQWLDO WUDF
QRXV DQWLR[LGD
RXV DQWLR[LG

 1XPHURXV
1XPHURX
HIRUWKHVHQX
IRUWKHVHQX
DGGLWLRQGDWDL
GGLWLRQGDWD
KLRQHSHUR[LGD
KLRQHSHUR[LGD
ELW$0'DQGF
ELW$0'DQGF
VDQG8QGHUV
VDQG8QGHUV
()
J SROLF\ RI WK
SROLF\ RI
RI ERWK VH[HV
RI ERWK VH[H
E\ VSHFLILF G
E\ VSHFLILF G
RQIRUWKHIXO
RQIRUWKHI
SURVWDWH DQ
SURVWDWH DQ
PHULFDQV +LVS
HULFDQV +LVS
$IULFDQ$PHULF
$IULFDQ$PHUL
EHPDGHWR
EHPDGHWR
3UHYLRXV
3UHYLRXV
LQ
Q

6%
3DJH
$&&58$/
7RWDO
:KLWH
%ODFN
+LVSDQLF
2WKHU


&RPPLWWHH

*8






&DQFHU&RQWURO



 

3&37



 
3LYRW$FFUXDO



 



'58*,1)250$7,21 


'UXJLQIRUPDWLRQLVQRWDSSOLFDEOHWRWKLVVWXG\7KLVVWXG\ZLOOXVHWKHVDPHDJHQWVDVWKHPDLQ
6(/(&7SURWRFRO6



67$*,1*&5,7(5,$



6WDJLQJ &ULWHULD DUH LQFOXGHG LQ $SSHQGL[  RI WKH PDLQ 6(/(&7 SURWRFRO 6 DV D
UHIHUHQFHIRUVWDJLQJSDUWLFLSDQWVZKRGHYHORSSURVWDWHFDQFHU

&/26('())(&7,9(






XVHWKHVDPH
XVHWKHVDP
 RI WKH PDLQ
 RI WKH PDLQ
SURVWDWHFDQF
SURVWDWHFD

6%
3DJH

5HYLVHG
5HYLVHG



(/,*,%,/,7<&5,7(5,$

6(/(&73DUWLFLSDQW1R
3DUWLFLSDQW
V,QLWLDOV/)0

7KH SRWHQWLDO 6% 6(( SDUWLFLSDQW PXVW EH D 6(/(&7 SDUWLFLSDQW DW WKH WLPH RI
UHJLVWUDWLRQWR6((3DUWLFLSDQWVPD\EHUHJLVWHUHGWR6((DWDQ\WLPHDIWHU6(/(&7
UDQGRPL]DWLRQ3DUWLFLSDQWVDUHUHJLVWHUHGRQO\DIWHUWKH\UHSRUWDQH\HHYHQWRILQWHUHVW
DVRXWOLQHGLQ6HFWLRQEHORZ


7KH SRWHQWLDO SDUWLFLSDQW PXVW UHSRUW D GLDJQRVLV RI DJHUHODWHG PDFXODU GHJHQHUDWLRQ
$0'DWEDVHOLQHFRQWDFWRUDWIROORZXSRUDGLDJQRVLVRIFDWDUDFWRUDFDWDUDFW
H[WUDFWLRQ DW IROORZXS (IIHFWLYH 1RYHPEHU   DFFUXDO RI QHZ SDUWLFLSDQWV
EDVHG VROHO\ RQ D GLDJQRVLV RI FDWDUDFW RU D FDWDUDFW H[WUDFWLRQ DW IROORZXS LV
FORVHG

$ SDUWLFLSDQW ZKR UHSRUWHG D SUHYLRXV GLDJQRVLV RI FDWDUDFW DW EDVHOLQH FRQWDFW 
WKHQ UHSRUWV D FDWDUDFW HYHQW DQRWKHU FDWDUDFW GLDJQRVLV RU D FDWDUDFW H[WUDFWLRQ DW
IROORZXSLVQRWHOLJLEOH

$ SDUWLFLSDQW ZKR UHSRUWHG D SUHYLRXV GLDJQRVLV RI FDWDUDFW DW EDVHOLQH FRQWDFW 
WKHQUHSRUWVDGLDJQRVLVRI$0'DWIROORZXSLVHOLJLEOH


3DUWLFLSDQWVPXVWEHLQIRUPHGRIWKHLQYHVWLJDWLRQDOQDWXUHRIWKLVVWXG\DQGPXVWVLJQ
DQGJLYHZULWWHQLQIRUPHGFRQVHQWLQDFFRUGDQFHZLWKLQVWLWXWLRQDODQGIHGHUDOJXLGHOLQHV
EHIRUH 6(( SURFHGXUHV DUH LQLWLDWHG 3DUWLFLSDQWV PXVW KDYH VLJQHG DQ DSSOLFDEOH
PHGLFDOUHFRUGVUHOHDVHIRUPDQGLWPXVWKDYHEHHQVHQWWR'U:LOOLDP&KULVWHQDWWKH
6(/(&7(\H(QGSRLQWV6((&HQWHULQ%RVWRQ0$E\)$;)$;
LPPHGLDWHO\DIWHUUHJLVWUDWLRQWR6((


$WWKHWLPHRISDUWLFLSDQWUHJLVWUDWLRQWKHWUHDWLQJLQVWLWXWLRQ
VQDPHDQG,'QXPEHUPXVW
EHSURYLGHGWRWKH6WDWLVWLFDO&HQWHULQRUGHUWRHQVXUHWKDWWKHFXUUHQWZLWKLQGD\V
GDWHRILQVWLWXWLRQDOUHYLHZERDUGDSSURYDOIRUWKLVVWXG\KDVEHHQHQWHUHGLQWRWKHGDWD
EDVH


&/26('())(&7,9(
WLPH RI
H RI
U6(/(&7
6(/(&7
QWRILQWHUHVW
QWRILQWHUH
DFXODU GHJHQH
FXODU GHJHQH
FDWDUDFWRUD
WDUDFWRUD
DO RI QHZ SD
DO RI QHZ SD
H[WUDFWLRQ DW
[WUDFWLRQ
FDWDUDFW DW ED
DWDUDFW DW ED
DJQRVLV RU D
QRVLV RU D
QRVLV
QRVLV RI FDWDU
RI FDW
XSLV
9
HOLJLEOH
HOLJLEOH
HLQYHVWLJDWLRQ
LQYHVWLJDWLR
LQDFFRUGDQF
LQDFFRUGD
QLWLDWHG 3DUWLF
LWLDWHG 3DUWL
DQGLWPXVW
DQGLWPXVWK
6((&HQWHULQ
6((&HQWH
DWLRQWR6((
WLRQWR6((
LSDQWUHJLVWUDW
SDQWUHJLVWUDW
H6WDWLVWLFDO&
H6WDWLVWLFDO&
RQDOUHYLHZE
RQDOUHYLHZ
))

6%
3DJH

5HYLVHG
5HYLVHG



675$7,),&$7,21)$&7256

6WUDWLILFDWLRQIDFWRUVDUHQRWDSSOLFDEOHWRWKLVVWXG\


75($70(173/$1

$OOSDUWLFLSDQWVZLOOUHFHLYHWUHDWPHQWDVRXWOLQHGLQ6

3OHDVH UHIHU DOO TXHVWLRQV UHJDUGLQJ DQ\ SURFHGXUHV UHODWHG WR 6% 6(( WR 'U :LOOLDP
&KULVWHQDW

'HWDLOHGSURFHGXUHVIRUWKH%DVHOLQH9LVLWDQG6L[0RQWKDQG$QQXDO9LVLWVFDQEHIRXQGLQWKH
6%6((6WXG\0DQXDOZKLFKLV$SSHQGL[.RIWKH6(/(&76WXG\0DQXDO


%DVHOLQH9LVLW

3DUWLFLSDQWLQIRUPDWLRQRQSUHYLRXVGLDJQRVHVRIFDWDUDFWDQG$0'DUHFROOHFWHGDVSDUW
RIWKHEDVHOLQHH[DPLQDWLRQLQ6(/(&7)RU6((PHGLFDOUHFRUGGDWDZLOOEHFROOHFWHG
DVGHVFULEHGEHORZWRFRQILUPWKHEDVHOLQHUHSRUWVRI$0'EXWZLOOQRWEHFROOHFWHGIRU
EDVHOLQHUHSRUWVRIFDWDUDFWRUFDWDUDFWVXUJHU\


6L[0RQWKDQG$QQXDO9LVLWV

3DUWLFLSDQW UHSRUWV RI QHZ GLDJQRVHV RI FDWDUDFW DQG $0' PDGH VLQFH WKH VWDUW RI
6% 6(( DUH FROOHFWHG DW WKH 6(/(&7 6L[ 0RQWK DQG $QQXDO 9LVLWV 7KLV LV
DFFRPSOLVKHGWKURXJKDGGLWLRQDOTXHVWLRQVRQ)RUP0HGLFDO(YHQWVDQGRQ)RUP
3URVWDWH&DQFHU)ROORZ8S


0HGLFDO5HFRUG5HOHDVH

3DUWLFLSDQWV ZKR UHSRUW D GLDJQRVLV RI $0' DW EDVHOLQH RU D GLDJQRVLV RI $0' DW D
6(/(&7 6L[ 0RQWK RU $QQXDO 9LVLW ZLOO EH UHTXHVWHG WR FRPSOHWH D PHGLFDO UHFRUG
UHOHDVH IRUP RQ ZKLFK WKH\ LQGLFDWH WKH WUHDWLQJ H\H GRFWRUV DQG SURYLGH ZULWWHQ
FRQVHQW IRU WKH 6(/(&7 (\H (QGSRLQWV 6(( &HQWHU WR UHYLHZ WKH UHOHYDQW PHGLFDO
UHFRUGV7KH6WXG\6LWHZLOOUHJLVWHUWKHSDUWLFLSDQWWR6%6((YLDWKH6(/(&7
ZRUNEHQFK DQG WKHQ LPPHGLDWHO\ ID[ WKH PHGLFDO UHOHDVH IRUP WR WKH 6(/(&7 (\H
(QGSRLQWV 6(( &HQWHU LQ %RVWRQ 0$ )$;     ,I WKH SDUWLFLSDQW LV
XQDEOH WR SURYLGH VXIILFLHQW LQIRUPDWLRQ DERXW WKH HYHQW DQG WKH WUHDWLQJ H\H GRFWRUV
ZKLOHDWWKH6WXG\6LWHWKHSDUWLFLSDQWZLOOEHDVNHGWRFRPSOHWHWKHIRUPDWKRPHDQG
UHWXUQ LW WR WKH 6WXG\ 6LWH LQ D VHOIDGGUHVVHG VWDPSHG HQYHORSH 7KH 6WXG\ 6LWH ZLOO
UHJLVWHUWKHSDUWLFLSDQWWR6%6((DQGWKHQLPPHGLDWHO\ID[WKHIRUPWRWKH6((
&HQWHU  $V DQ DOWHUQDWLYH WR ID[LQJ WKH PHGLFDO UHOHDVH IRUP WR WKH 6(( &HQWHU
GHSHQGLQJ RQ 6WXG\ 6LWH ORFDO UHTXLUHPHQWV WKH 6WXG\ 6LWH PD\ UHTXHVW WKH PHGLFDO
UHFRUGV IURP WKH RSKWKDOPRORJLVWRSWRPHWULVW FROOHFW WKH GHWDLOHG TXHVWLRQQDLUH DQG
IRUZDUGDOOPDWHULDOVREWDLQHGWRWKH6((&HQWHUVHH6HFWLRQ


&ULWHULDIRUUHPRYDOIURPSURWRFRO

7KHSDUWLFLSDQWPD\ZLWKGUDZIURPWKHVWXG\DWDQ\WLPHIRUDQ\UHDVRQ


7KHSDUWLFLSDQWZLOOEHIROORZHGDVGHVFULEHGLQWKHPDLQ6(/(&7SURWRFRO6


72;,&,7,(672%(021,725('$1''26$*(02',),&$7,216

'RVH PRGLILFDWLRQV ZLOOEHSHUIRUPHGDVRXWOLQHGLQ6HFWLRQRIWKHPDLQ6(/(&7SURWRFRO
6
&/26('())(&7,9(
'U :LOOLDP
'U :LOOLD
FDQEHIRXQG
DQEHIRXQG
DQXDO
XDO
DQG$0'DUH
DQG$0'DUH
GLFDOUHFRUGG
GLFDOUHFRUGG
RI$0'EXW
I$0'EXW
RI
RI FDWDUDFW DQ
WDUDFW DQ
6(/(&7 6L[
6(/(&7 6
XHVWLRQVRQ)
XHVWLRQVRQ)
S
W D GLDJQRVLV
D GLDJQRVLV
RU $QQXDO 9
RU $QQXDO 9
ZKLFK WKH\ L
ZKLFK WKH\ L
H 6(/(&7 (\
 6(/(&7
H6WXG\6LWHZ
6WXG\6LWHZ
K DQG WKHQ LP
K DQG WKHQ
QWV 6(( &H
V 6(( &H
EOH WR SURYLGH
OH WR SURYLGH
KLOHDWWKH6WX
KLOHDWWKH6WX
UHWXUQ LW WR WK
UHWXUQ LW WR
UHJLVWHUWK
UHJLVWHUWK
&HQWHU
&HQWHU
GHSH
GHSH
UH
U



6%
3DJH

5HYLVHG

678'<&$/(1'$5

7KHUHDUHQRVFKHGXOHGVWXG\SDUDPHWHUVWREHIROORZHGIRUWKLVVWXG\



&5,7(5,$)25(9$/8$7,21$1'(1'32,17'(),1,7,216

$OOPHGLFDOUHFRUGVREWDLQHGIURPWKHRSKWKDOPRORJLVWRSWRPHWULVWZLOOEHFROOHFWHGDQGUHYLHZHG
DWWKH6((&HQWHU8SRQUHFHLSWRIWKHPHGLFDOUHFRUGUHOHDVHIRUPIURPWKH6WXG\6LWHWKH6((
&HQWHUZLOOVHQGDOHWWHUDFRS\RIWKHVLJQHGPHGLFDOUHFRUGUHOHDVHIRUPDQGDTXHVWLRQQDLUHWR
WKHRSKWKDOPRORJLVWRSWRPHWULVWDVNLQJDERXWWKHUHSRUWHGGLDJQRVLV$OWHUQDWLYHO\WKH6WXG\6LWH
PD\ UHTXHVW WKH PHGLFDO UHFRUGV IURP WKH RSKWKDOPRORJLVWRSWRPHWULVW FROOHFW WKH GHWDLOHG
TXHVWLRQQDLUHDQGIRUZDUGDOOPDWHULDOVREWDLQHGWRWKH6((&HQWHU

7KH $0' TXHVWLRQQDLUH ZLOO DVN DERXW D WKH GDWH RI LQLWLDO GLDJQRVLV RI $0' E WKH EHVW
FRUUHFWHGYLVXDODFXLW\DWWKHWLPHRIGLDJQRVLVFWKHGDWHZKHQYLVXDODFXLW\ZDVILUVWQRWHGWR
EH  RU ZRUVH LI GLIIHUHQW IURP WKH GDWH RI LQLWLDO GLDJQRVLV G SDWKRORJLFDO ILQGLQJV
REVHUYHGGUXVHQUHWLQDOSLJPHQWHSLWKHOLXPK\SRK\SHUSLJPHQWDWLRQJHRJUDSKLFDWURSK\UHWLQDO
SLJPHQWHSLWKHOLDOGHWDFKPHQWVXEUHWLQDOQHRYDVFXODUPHPEUDQHRUGLVFLIRUPVFDUZKHQ$0'
ZDVILUVWGLDJQRVHGHSDWKRORJLFDOILQGLQJVREVHUYHGZKHQYLVXDODFXLW\ZDVILUVWQRWHGWREH
RUZRUVHIWKHGDWHZKHQH[XGDWLYHZHW$0'ZDVILUVWQRWHGGHILQHGE\SUHVHQFHRI
UHWLQDOSLJPHQWHSLWKHOLXPGHWDFKPHQWVXEUHWLQDOQHRYDVFXODUPHPEUDQHRUGLVFLIRUPVFDUJ
ZKHWKHUWKHUHDUHRWKHURFXODUDEQRUPDOLWLHVZKLFKZRXOGH[SODLQRUFRQWULEXWHWRYLVXDOORVVK
ZKHWKHU$0'E\LWVHOILVVLJQLILFDQWHQRXJKWRFDXVHWKHYLVLRQWREHUHGXFHGWRRUZRUVH
LZKHWKHUODVHUWUHDWPHQWRUSKRWRG\QDPLFWKHUDS\ZDVSHUIRUPHGIRU$0'

7KHFDWDUDFWTXHVWLRQQDLUHZLOODVNDERXWDWKHGDWHRILQLWLDOGLDJQRVLVRIFDWDUDFWEWKHEHVW
FRUUHFWHGYLVXDODFXLW\DWWKHWLPHRIGLDJQRVLVFWKHGDWHZKHQYLVXDODFXLW\UHDFKHGRU
ZRUVH LI GLIIHUHQW IURP WKH GDWH RI LQLWLDO GLDJQRVLV G WKH GDWH RI FDWDUDFW H[WUDFWLRQ H
ZKHWKHUWKHUHZHUHRWKHURFXODUDEQRUPDOLWLHVZKLFKFRXOGH[SODLQORVVRIYLVXDODFXLW\ILIRWKHU
RFXODUDEQRUPDOLWLHVZKHWKHUFDWDUDFWE\LWVHOILVVLJQLILFDQWHQRXJKWRFDXVHWKHYLVLRQWREH
UHGXFHGWRRUZRUVHJHWLRORJ\RIFDWDUDFWLQFOXGLQJDJHUHODWHGWUDXPDWLFFRQJHQLWDO
LQIODPPDWRU\ RU VXUJHU\ RU VWHURLG LQGXFHG K FDWDUDFW W\SH QXFOHDU FRUWLFDO SRVWHULRU
VXEFDSVXODURWKHU

2SKWKDOPRORJLVWV DQG RSWRPHWULVWV PD\ VXSSO\ WKH UHTXHVWHG LQIRUPDWLRQ E\ SURYLGLQJ
SKRWRFRSLHVRIWKHUHOHYDQWPHGLFDOUHFRUGVLQVWHDGRIFRPSOHWLQJWKHIRUPV

2QFH REWDLQHG WKH TXHVWLRQQDLUHV DQG PHGLFDO UHFRUGV ZLOO EH UHYLHZHG E\ WKH 6WXG\
&RRUGLQDWRUWRGHWHUPLQHWKHLUFRQIRUPLW\ZLWKXQLIRUPGLDJQRVWLFFULWHULD

7KUHHFDWHJRULHVRIWKH$0'HQGSRLQWDUHGHILQHGD$0'VHOIUHSRUWFRQILUPHGE\PHGLFDO
UHFRUGHYLGHQFHRIDGLDJQRVLVRI$0'VXEVHTXHQWWRUDQGRPL]DWLRQWR6(/(&76E
$0' ZLWK YLVLRQ ORVV  DV LQ D EXW ZLWK YLVLRQ ORVV WR  RU ZRUVH DWWULEXWDEOH WR $0'
YLVXDOO\VLJQLILFDQW$0'FDGYDQFHG$0'DVLQEEXWLQFOXGLQJHYLGHQFHRIJHRJUDSKLF
DWURSK\RUH[XGDWLYHGLVHDVH

7KHSULPDU\$0'HQGSRLQWLQWKLVH\HVWXG\YLVXDOO\VLJQLILFDQW$0'ZLOORQDYHUDJHUHSUHVHQW
DOHVVVHYHUHVWDJHRIGLVHDVHWKDQFDVHVPHHWLQJWKHFULWHULDIRUDGYDQFHG$0'LQ$5('6,Q
RXURWKHURQJRLQJWULDOVLQPHQDQGZRPHQ3K\VLFLDQV¶+HDOWK6WXG\:RPHQ¶V+HDOWK6WXG\
:RPHQ¶V $QWLR[LGDQW &DUGLRYDVFXODU 6WXG\  DSSUR[LPDWHO\    RI FDVHV PHHWLQJ WKH
FULWHULDRIYLVLRQORVVWRRUZRUVHDWWULEXWDEOHWR$0'DUHFKDUDFWHUL]HGE\HDUO\VLJQVRI
$0'RQO\LHVRPHFRPELQDWLRQRIGUXVHQDQGRUUHWLQDOSLJPHQWHSLWKHOLXPFKDQJHV7KXV
WKHSULPDU\$0'HQGSRLQWRIYLVXDOO\VLJQLILFDQW$0'ZLOOSURYLGHDPHDQLQJIXOWHVWRIZKHWKHU
DQWLR[LGDQWYLWDPLQVFDQEHHIIHFWLYHLQORZHULQJULVNVRIHDUOLHUVWDJHVRI$0',QVHFRQGDU\
DQDO\VHVZHSURSRVHWRH[DPLQHZKHWKHUWKHVWXG\DJHQWVUHGXFHWKHULVNRIDGYDQFHG$0'
FDVHVZLWKHYLGHQFHRIJHRJUDSKLFDWURSK\RUH[XGDWLYHGLVHDVHDVZHOODVWRWDO$0'LQFOXGLQJ
FDVHVZLWKDQGZLWKRXWYLVLRQORVV
&/26('())(&7,9(
YLHZHG
ZHG
WKH6((
WKH6((
VWLRQQDLUHWR
RQQDLUH
WKH6WXG\6LWH
KH6WXG\6L
HFW WKH GHWDL
FW WKH GHWD
V RI $0' E
RI $0' E
DODFXLW\ZDV
DODFXLW\Z
V G SDWKR
V G SDWK
WLRQJHRJUDSK
WLRQJHRJUDS
DQHRUGLVFLIR
DQHRUGLVFLIR
QYLVXDODFXLW
YLVXDODFX
ZDVILUVWQRWHG
ZDVILUVWQRW
DVFXODUPHPE
DVFXODUPHPE
RXOGH[SODLQR
RXOGH[SODL
XVHWKHYLVLRQ
HWKHYLVLRQ
DS\ZDVSHUIR
DS\ZDVSHUIR
DWKHGDWH
DWKHGDWH RI
JQRVLV
QRVLVFWKH
FWKH
LQLWLDO GLDJQRV
QLWLDO GLDJQR
RUPDOLWLHVZK
PDOLWLHV
WDUDFWE\LWVH
WDUDFWE\LWVH
HWLRORJ\RIF
HWLRORJ\RIF
U VWHURLG LQG
U VWHURLG LQG
QG RSWRPHWUL
QG RSWRPHWU
UHOHYDQWPHG
UHOHYDQWP
HG WKH TXHV
KH TXHV
UWRGHWHUPLQH
WRGHWHUPLQH
FDWHJRULHVRI
FDWHJRULHVR
RUGHYLGHQFH
UGHYLGHQFH
$0' ZLWK YLVLR
$0' ZLWK YLVLR
YLVXDOO\VLJQ
YLVXDOO\VLJQ
DWURSK\RU
DWURSK\R
7KHS
KH
DO
D O

6%
3DJH

7ZR FDWDUDFW HQGSRLQWV DUH GHILQHG D FDWDUDFW  VHOIUHSRUW FRQILUPHG E\ PHGLFDO UHFRUG
HYLGHQFH RI D GLDJQRVLV RI DJHUHODWHG FDWDUDFW VXEVHTXHQW WR UDQGRPL]DWLRQ WR 6(/(&7
6 ZLWK EHVWFRUUHFWHG YLVXDO DFXLW\ RI  RU ZRUVH GXH WR FDWDUDFW E H[WUDFWLRQ 
VXUJLFDOUHPRYDORIDQLQFLGHQWFDWDUDFW

7KHSULPDU\FDWDUDFWHQGSRLQWLQWKLVH\HVWXG\SURYLGHVDPHDQLQJIXOWHVWRIZKHWKHUDQWLR[LGDQW
YLWDPLQV FDQ EH HIIHFWLYH LQ ORZHULQJ ULVNV RI YLVXDOO\ VLJQLILFDQW OHQV RSDFLWLHV  ,Q VHFRQGDU\
DQDO\VHVZHSURSRVHWRH[DPLQHZKHWKHUWKHVWXG\DJHQWVUHGXFHWKHULVNRIFDWDUDFWVXUJHU\DV
ZHOODVVXEW\SHV



67$7,67,&$/&216,'(5$7,216


3RZHU(VWLPDWHV

,Q WKLV VHFWLRQ ZH KDYH FRPSXWHG WKH VWDWLVWLFDO SRZHU RI WKH WULDO WR GHWHFW SODXVLEOH
HIIHFWVRIYLWDPLQ(DQGVHOHQLXPRQWKHSULPDU\HQGSRLQWVRIYLVXDOO\VLJQLILFDQW$0'
DQGFDWDUDFWDPRQJWKHDQWLFLSDWHGUDQGRPL]HGPHQ3RZHULVHVWLPDWHGZLWK
OHQJWKRIIROORZXSDWSODQQHGWHUPLQDWLRQPHGLDQIROORZXS\HDUV(VWLPDWHVRI
SRZHUDUHEDVHGRQDWZRVLGHGORJUDQNWHVWFRPSDULQJHYHQWWLPHVEHWZHHQWUHDWPHQW
JURXSV DW WKH  VLJQLILFDQFH OHYHO  :H XVH WKH IRUPXODV SURYLGHG E\ /DFKLQ DQG
)RXONHVZLWKWKHIROORZLQJDVVXPSWLRQV

D
)RU ERWK SULPDU\ HQGSRLQWV RI YLVXDOO\ VLJQLILFDQW $0' DQG FDWDUDFW ZH KDYH
XVHG WKH HYHQW UDWHV LQ 3K\VLFLDQV¶ +HDOWK 6WXG\ , WR FDOFXODWH WKH QXPEHU RI
FDVHV H[SHFWHG DW WKH HQG RI WKH SODQQHG OHQJWK RI IROORZXS RI  \HDUV
PHGLDQ

E
:H DVVXPH WKDW WKH DJH GLVWULEXWLRQ RI DOO SDUWLFLSDQWV LQ 6(/(&7 DW
UDQGRPL]DWLRQ ZLOO PDWFK WKH DJH GLVWULEXWLRQ RI WKH UDQGRPL]HG SDUWLFLSDQWV
GXULQJWKHILUVWPRQWKVRIWKHWULDO-XO\'HFHPEHU)XUWKHUZHDVVXPH
WKDW WKH SHUFHQWDJHV RI SDUWLFLSDQWV ZLWKLQ HDFK \HDU DJH JURXS ZKR KDYH
YLVXDOO\ VLJQLILFDQW $0' RU FDWDUDFW DW UDQGRPL]DWLRQ ZLOO PDWFK WKH
FRUUHVSRQGLQJREVHUYHGSHUFHQWDJHVLQ3K\VLFLDQV¶+HDOWK6WXG\,

F
$SSO\LQJ SK\VLFLDQ UDWHV WR WKH SURMHFWHG UDQGRPL]HG VDPSOH LQ 6(/(&7 ZH
DQWLFLSDWHWKDWDWEDVHOLQHPHQZLOOEHIUHHRIDGLDJQRVLVRIFDWDUDFWDQG
PHQZLOOEHIUHHRIDGLDJQRVLVRI$0'$OVREDVHGRQSK\VLFLDQUDWHV
DQGWKHSURMHFWHGDJHGLVWULEXWLRQRIWKH6(/(&7SRSXODWLRQZHDVVXPHWKDWWKH
UDWHRIYLVXDOO\VLJQLILFDQW$0'LQWKHSODFHERJURXSZLOOEHHYHQWVSHU
SHUVRQ\HDUVDQGWKHUDWHRIFDWDUDFWLQWKHSODFHERJURXSZLOOEHHYHQWVSHU
SHUVRQ\HDUV

G
6WXG\GXUDWLRQZLOOEH\HDUVZLWKDPLQLPXPRI\HDUVRIWUHDWPHQW

H
%DVHGRQH[SHULHQFHZLWKVLPLODUWULDOVZHH[SHFWWKHFRPELQHGORVVWRIROORZ
XSIURPERWKGHDWKDQGGURSRXWWREHOHVVWKDQSHUSHUVRQ\HDUV7KLV
UDWHLVXVHGLQSRZHUFDOFXODWLRQV

)RU WKH SULPDU\ HQGSRLQW RI YLVXDOO\VLJQLILFDQW $0' WKH VWXG\ ZLOO KDYH JRRG SRZHU
RUJUHDWHUWRGHWHFWDQREVHUYHG55DWWKHHQGRIWKHWRWDOSODQQHGIROORZXS
PHGLDQ\HDUV)RUWKHSULPDU\HQGSRLQWRIFDWDUDFWWKHVWXG\ZLOOKDYHH[FHOOHQW
SRZHURUJUHDWHUWRGHWHFWDQREVHUYHG55DVORZDVDWWKHHQGRIWKHWRWDO
SODQQHGIROORZXS

&/26('())(&7,9(
W
DU\\
HU\DV
\D
H WULDO WR GHWH
WULDO WR GHWH
RIYLVXDOO\VLJ
RIYLVXDOO\
PHQ3RZHUL
PHQ3RZHUL
RZXS\H
ZXS\
ULQJHYHQWWLPH
QJHYHQWWLPH
KH IRUPXODV S
IRUPXODV S
DOO\ VLJQLILFDQ
OO\ VLJQLILFD
DQV¶ +HDOWK
+HDOWK 6W
6W
RI WKH SO
I WKH SODQQH
DQQH
 DJH GLVWUL
 DJH GLV
E
PDWFK WKH DJH
DWFK WKH DJH
PRQWKVRIWKHW
RQWKVRIWKH
WDJHV RI SDUW
WDJHV RI SDUW
LILFDQW $0'
LILFDQW $0'
LQJREVHUYHG
LQJREVHUYHG
QJ SK\VLFLDQ
QJ SK\VLFLD
FLSDWHWKDWDW
FLSDWHWKDWDW
PHQZL
PHQZ
DQGWKHSURMH
QGWKHSUR
UDWHRIYLV
UDWHRIYLV
SHUVRQ
SHUVRQ


G
G
H
H

6%
3DJH

5HYLVHG
3RZHUIRUWKHPDLQHIIHFWVRIYLWDPLQ(DQGVHOHQLXPRQWKHSULPDU\HQGSRLQWVRI
YLVXDOO\VLJQLILFDQW$0'DQGFDWDUDFWZLWKWRWDOSODQQHGIROORZXS


7RWDO3ODQQHG)ROORZ8S
<HDUV)ROORZ8S
7UXH55
DVVXPLQJ
9LVXDOO\VLJQLILFDQW
2EVHUYHG55
FRPSOLDQFH
$0'
&DWDUDFW











!



!



!

6HFRQGDU\&RPSDULVRQV
&RQFHUQLQJWKHVHFRQGDU\HQGSRLQWRIDGYDQFHG$0'ZLWKWRWDOSODQQHGIROORZXSZH
H[SHFWWRKDYHJRRGSRZHURUJUHDWHUWRGHWHFWDEHQHILWRIWUHDWPHQWRIRU
JUHDWHU  )RU WKH VHFRQGDU\ HQGSRLQWV RI WRWDO $0' ZLWK RU ZLWKRXW YLVLRQ ORVV DQG
FDWDUDFWVXUJHU\ZHH[SHFWWRKDYHH[FHOOHQWSRZHURUJUHDWHUWRGHWHFWDEHQHILW
RIWUHDWPHQWDVVPDOODVDWWKHHQGRIWRWDOSODQQHGIROORZXS

'DWD$QDO\VLV3ODQ
7KHVWXG\GHVLJQLVD[IDFWRULDOWULDORIVHOHQLXPJGDLO\DQGYLWDPLQ(
PJGDLO\%HFDXVHRIWKHODUJHVDPSOHVL]HUDQGRPL]DWLRQVKRXOGYLUWXDOO\DVVXUHWKDW
ERWK NQRZQ DQG XQNQRZQ FRQIRXQGLQJ YDULDEOHV ZLOO EH GLVWULEXWHG HYHQO\ DPRQJ WKH
WUHDWPHQWJURXSV$Q\LPEDODQFHVWKDWPD\RFFXUZLWKUHVSHFWWRNQRZQULVNIDFWRUVIRU
$0'DQGFDWDUDFWRUDQ\PHGLFDORURFXODUFRQGLWLRQZKLFKZRXOGUHTXLUHPRUHPHGLFDO
DWWHQWLRQ WKXV LQFUHDVLQJ WKH OLNHOLKRRG RI D GLDJQRVLV RI $0' RU FDWDUDFW ZLOO EH
FRQWUROOHGIRULQVXEVHTXHQWDQDO\VHV

3ULPDU\DQDO\VHVZLOOH[DPLQHWKHPDLQWUHDWPHQWHIIHFWVRIHDFKVWXG\DJHQWDQGWKXV
ZLOOGLIIHUIURPWKHSULPDU\DQDO\VHVLQWKHPDLQ6(/(&7VWXG\$QDO\VHVRIWKHPDLQ
WUHDWPHQWHIIHFWVZLOOEHEDVHGRQWKHLQWHQWWRWUHDWSULQFLSOHZLWKSDUWLFLSDQWVFODVVLILHG
DFFRUGLQJ WR WKHLU UDQGRPL]HG WUHDWPHQW DVVLJQPHQW  ,QLWLDODQDO\VHVRIWKH$0'DQG
FDWDUDFW HQGSRLQWV ZLOO LQFOXGH VLPSOH FRQWLQJHQF\ WDEOHV LQ ZKLFK WKH UDWH RI HDFK
HQGSRLQWLQWHUPVRIQXPEHURIHYHQWVSHUSHUVRQ\HDURIREVHUYDWLRQDPRQJSDUWLFLSDQWV
DOORFDWHGWRDFWLYHWUHDWPHQWZLOOEHFRPSDUHGZLWKWKHLQFLGHQFHDPRQJWKRVHDOORFDWHG
WR LWV SODFHER  )RU H[DPSOH WKH LQFLGHQFH UDWH RI $0' RYHU WKH SHULRG RI IROORZXS
DPRQJ SDUWLFLSDQWV DVVLJQHG WR DFWLYH YLWDPLQ ( ZLOO EH FRPSDUHG ZLWK WKH UDWH IRU
SDUWLFLSDQWV DVVLJQHG WR YLWDPLQ ( SODFHER FRQWUROOLQJ E\ VWUDWLILFDWLRQ IRU VHOHQLXP
DVVLJQPHQW  6LPLODU DQDO\VHV ZLOO VHSDUDWHO\ H[DPLQH WKH HIIHFWV RI VHOHQLXP RQ WKH
LQFLGHQFHRI$0'DVZHOODVWKHHIIHFWVRIYLWDPLQ(DQGVHOHQLXPRQWKHLQFLGHQFHRI
FDWDUDFW,QDGGLWLRQ.DSODQ0HLHUVXUYLYDOHVWLPDWHVWKHORJUDQNWHVWDQGSURSRUWLRQDO
KD]DUGVUHJUHVVLRQPRGHOVZLOOEHXVHGWRGHWHUPLQHZKHWKHUWKHUHLVDGLIIHUHQFHLQWLPH
WRGLDJQRVLVRI$0'RUFDWDUDFW:HZLOOWHVWIRUSRVVLEOHLQWHUDFWLRQRIVWXG\
DJHQWV E\ LQFOXGLQJ DQ LQWHUDFWLRQ WHUP LQ SURSRUWLRQDO KD]DUGV UHJUHVVLRQ PRGHOV
%HFDXVH DQ H[WHQGHG H[SRVXUH WR WKH VWXG\ DJHQWV PD\ EH UHTXLUHG WR REVHUYH DQ
HIIHFW DQDO\VHV ZLOO DOVR EH FRQGXFWHG ZKLFK H[FOXGH $0' RU FDWDUDFW WKDW GHYHORS
GXULQJ
&/26('())(&7,9(




!
!


( 
DGYDQFHG$0
DGYDQFHG$0
JUHDWHUWR
JUHDWHUWR GH
RLQWV RI WRWD
RLQWV RI WR
O
DYHH[FHOOHQW
YHH[FHOOHQW
DWWKHHQGRIWR
DWWKHHQGRI
D[IDFWRUL
D[IDFWR
HRIWKHODUJH
HRIWKHODUJH
XQNQRZQ FR
XQNQRZQ FR
XSV$Q\LPED
SV$Q\LP
DWDUDFWRUDQ\
DWDUDFWRUDQ\
WKXV LQFUHDV
WKXV LQFUHD
OHGIRULQVXEV
IRULQVXE
PDU\DQDO\VH
PDU\DQDO\VH
ZLOOGLIIHUIURP
ZLOOGLIIHUIU
WUHDWPHQWH
WUHDWPHQWH
DFFRUGLQ
DFFRUGLQ
FDWDUD
FDWDUD




DFW
F

HQG
HQG
D


6%
3DJH

WKHHDUO\\HDUVDIWHUUDQGRPL]DWLRQ3URSRUWLRQDOKD]DUGVUHJUHVVLRQPRGHOVZLOOEHXVHG
WRHYDOXDWHVPRNLQJDVDPRGLILHURIHIIHFWVRQ$0'DQGFDWDUDFWDQGWRHYDOXDWHHIIHFW
PRGLILFDWLRQ E\ RWKHU IDFWRUV LQFOXGLQJ EDVHOLQH GLHWDU\ OHYHOV RI WKH VWXG\ DJHQWV
$GGLWLRQDODQDO\VHVZLOOVHSDUDWHO\HYDOXDWHWKHHIIHFWRIYLWDPLQ(DQGVHOHQLXPRQWKH
LQFLGHQFHRIFDWDUDFWVXUJHU\DQGFDWDUDFWVXEW\SHVDQGWKHLQFLGHQFHRIDGYDQFHG$0'
JHRJUDSKLFDWURSK\DQGH[XGDWLYH$0'DQGWRWDO$0'ZLWKRUZLWKRXWYLVLRQORVV

7KH SULPDU\ DQDO\VHV ZLOO FRQVLGHU LQGLYLGXDOV UDWKHU WKDQ H\HV DV XQLWV RIDQDO\VHV
7KLVLVFRQVLVWHQWZLWKFXUUHQWSUDFWLFHIRUVXUYLYDODQDO\VLVRIRSKWKDOPLFWULDOVZKHQWKH
LQGLYLGXDOUDWKHUWKDQWKHH\HLVWKHXQLWRIUDQGRPL]DWLRQ6RPHLQFUHDVHLQVWDWLVWLFDO
SRZHUZRXOGOLNHO\EHREWDLQHGE\FRQVLGHULQJH\HVDVWKHXQLWVRIREVHUYDWLRQ5RVQHU
KDV GHVFULEHG DQ DSSURDFK IRU HVWLPDWLRQ RI SDUDPHWHUV LQ ORJLVWLF UHJUHVVLRQ PRGHOV
WKDWDFFRXQWVIRUWKHFRUUHODWLRQLQGLVHDVHULVNEHWZHHQIHOORZH\HV:HZLOODSSO\
WKLVPRGHORI5RVQHUWRHVWLPDWHWKHFXPXODWLYHULVNRIGHYHORSLQJDQRXWFRPHLQRQHH\H
JLYHQWKHWUHDWPHQWVWDWXVRIWKHLQGLYLGXDODQGDFFRXQWLQJIRURWKHUEDVHOLQHSUHGLFWRUV
$QDGGLWLRQDOEHQHILWRIWKLVDSSURDFKLVWKDWLWH[SOLFLWO\TXDQWLILHVWKHRGGVRIDQRXWFRPH
LQDQH\HJLYHQWKHRXWFRPHVWDWXVRIWKHIHOORZH\H



',6&,3/,1(5(9,(:

'LVFLSOLQHUHYLHZLVQRWDSSOLFDEOHWR6%6((



5(*,675$7,21*8,'(/,1(6

5HJLVWUDWLRQSURFHGXUHVDUHVSHFLILHGLQWKH6(/(&76WXG\0DQXDO



'$7$68%0,66,216&+('8/(

'HWDLOHG GDWD FRPSOHWLRQ DQG VXEPLVVLRQ SURFHGXUHV DQG VFKHGXOH DUH IRXQG LQ WKH 6(/(&7
6WXG\0DQXDO



63(&,$/,16758&7,216

6SHFLDOLQVWUXFWLRQVDUHLQFOXGHGLQ6HFWLRQRIWKHPDLQ6(/(&7SURWRFRO6



(7+,&$/$1'5(*8/$725<&216,'(5$7,216

7KHIROORZLQJPXVWEHREVHUYHGWRFRPSO\ZLWK)RRGDQG'UXJ$GPLQLVWUDWLRQUHJXODWLRQVIRUWKH
FRQGXFWDQGPRQLWRULQJRIFOLQLFDOLQYHVWLJDWLRQVWKH\DOVRUHSUHVHQWVRXQGUHVHDUFKSUDFWLFH

,QIRUPHG&RQVHQW

7KH SULQFLSOHV RI LQIRUPHG FRQVHQW DUH GHVFULEHG E\ )HGHUDO 5HJXODWRU\ *XLGHOLQHV )HGHUDO
5HJLVWHU9RO1R-DQXDU\SDUWDQGWKH2IILFHIRU3URWHFWLRQIURP5HVHDUFK
5LVNV5HSRUWV3URWHFWLRQRI+XPDQ6XEMHFWV&RGHRI)HGHUDO5HJXODWLRQV&)57KH\
PXVW EH IROORZHG WR FRPSO\ ZLWK )'$ UHJXODWLRQV IRU WKH FRQGXFW DQG PRQLWRULQJ RI FOLQLFDO
LQYHVWLJDWLRQV

&/26('())(&7,9(
O\VHV
VHV
ZKHQWKH
KHQWKH
VWDWLVWLFDO
VWDWLVWL
LRQ5RVQHU
LRQ5RVQ
UHVVLRQ PRGH
UHVVLRQ PRGH
 :HZLOOD
:HZLOOD
RXWFRPHLQR
RXWFRPHLQR
KHUEDVHOLQHS
HUEDVHOLQH
VWKHRGGVRI
WKHRGGVRI
6(/(&76WXG\
6(/(&76WXG
XEPLVVLRQ SUR
XEPLVVLRQ SUR
216
216
)
QVDUHLQFOXGH
QVDUHLQFOXG
$1'5(*8/
$1'5(*8/
'
IROORZLQJPXVW
ROORZLQJPXV
QGXFWDQGPRQ
QGXFWDQGPR
,QIRUPHG&R
QIRUPHG&
26
7KH S
KH
5HJ
5HJ
5

6%
3DJH

,QVWLWXWLRQDO5HYLHZ

7KLV VWXG\ PXVW EH DSSURYHG E\ DQ DSSURSULDWH LQVWLWXWLRQDO UHYLHZ FRPPLWWHH DV GHILQHG E\
)HGHUDO5HJXODWRU\*XLGHOLQHV5HI)HGHUDO5HJLVWHU9RO1R-DQXDU\SDUW
DQGWKH2IILFHIRU3URWHFWLRQIURP5HVHDUFK5LVNV5HSRUWV3URWHFWLRQRI+XPDQ6XEMHFWV&RGH
RI)HGHUDO5HJXODWLRQV&)5

'UXJ$FFRXQWDELOLW\

)RU HDFK LQYHVWLJDWLRQDO GUXJ VXSSOLHG IRU D VWXG\ GUXJ GLVSRVLWLRQ GUXJ UHFHLSW GLVSHQVLQJ
WUDQVIHU RU UHWXUQ VKDOO EH PDLQWDLQHG RQ WKH 1&, ,QYHVWLJDWLRQDO 'UXJ $FFRXQWDELOLW\ 5HFRUG
'UXJVXSSOLHVPXVWEHNHSWLQDVHFXUHOLPLWHGDFFHVVVWRUDJHDUHDXQGHUWKHUHFRPPHQGHG
VWRUDJHFRQGLWLRQV'XULQJWKHFRXUVHRIWKHVWXG\WKHIROORZLQJLQIRUPDWLRQPXVWEHQRWHGRQ
WKH'UXJ$FFRXQWDELOLW\5HFRUGWKH,'DQGLQLWLDOVRIWKHVXEMHFWWRZKRPGUXJLVGLVSHQVHG
WKHGDWHVDQGTXDQWLW\RIGUXJGLVSHQVHGWRWKHVXEMHFWDQGWKHGDWHVDQGTXDQWLW\RIGUXJ
UHWXUQHGWRWKH1&,RUWUDQVIHUUHGWRDQRWKHU1&,DSSURYHGSURWRFRO7KHVH'UXJ$FFRXQWDELOLW\
5HFRUGVPXVWEHUHDGLO\DYDLODEOHIRULQVSHFWLRQDQGDUHRSHQWR)'$RU1&,LQVSHFWLRQDWDQ\
WLPH

$GYHUVH([SHULHQFHV

$Q\ DGYHUVH H[SHULHQFH LI GHHPHG GUXJ UHODWHG PXVW EH UHSRUWHG WR WKH 2SHUDWLRQV 2IILFH
$GYHUVH 'UXJ 5HDFWLRQ $'5 UHSUHVHQWDWLYH  DV RXWOLQHG LQ WKH 6(/(&7
SURWRFRO



&/26('())(&7,9(
GLVSHQVLQJ
VSHQVLQ
ELOLW\ 5HFRUG
ELOLW\ 5HFRU
UHFRPPHQGH
UHFRPPHQGH
PXVWEHQRWHG
VWEHQRWH
PGUXJLVGLVS
GUXJLVGLVS
VDQGTXDQWLW
DQGTXDQW
KHVH'UXJ$F
HVH'UXJ$
'$RU1&,LQVS
$RU1&,L
W EH UHSRUWHG
W EH UHSRUWHG
 D


6%
3DJH


%,%/,2*5$3+<


1DWLRQDO$GYLVRU\(\H&RXQFLO9LVLRQ5HVHDUFKD1DWLRQDO3ODQ1,+3XEOLFDWLRQ
1R%HWKHVGD0DU\ODQG


.OHLQ 5 .OHLQ %( /LQWRQ ./  3UHYDOHQFH RI DJHUHODWHG PDFXORSDWK\ 7KH %HDYHU 'DP (\H
6WXG\2SKWKDOPRORJ\


.OHLQ5.OHLQ%(/LQWRQ./3UHYDOHQFHRIDJHUHODWHGOHQVRSDFLWLHVLQSRSXODWLRQ7KH%HDYHU
'DP(\H6WXG\2SKWKDOPRORJ\


6SHUGXWR 5' +LOOHU 5  7KH SUHYDOHQFH RI QXFOHDU FRUWLFDO DQG SRVWHULRU VXEFDSVXODU OHQV
RSDFLWLHVLQDJHQHUDOSRSXODWLRQVDPSOH2SKWKDOPRORJ\


0DFXODU 3KRWRFRDJXODWLRQ 6WXG\ *URXS  3HUVLVWHQW DQG UHFXUUHQW QHRYDVFXODUL]DWLRQ DIWHU
NU\SWRQ ODVHU SKRWRFRDJXODWLRQ IRU QHRYDVFXODU OHVLRQV RI DJHUHODWHG PDFXODU GHJHQHUDWLRQ
$UFK2SKWKDOPRO


0DFXODU 3KRWRFRDJXODWLRQ 6WXG\ *URXS  /DVHU SKRWRFRDJXODWLRQ RI VXEIRYHDO QHRYDVFXODU
OHVLRQVLQDJHUHODWHGPDFXODUGHJHQHUDWLRQ$UFK2SKWKDOPRO


0LOOHU -: 6FKPLGW(UIXUWK 8 6LFNHQEHUJ 0 HW DO  3KRWRG\QDPLF WKHUDS\ ZLWK YHUWHSRUILQ IRU
FKRURLGDO QHRYDVFXODUL]DWLRQ FDXVHG E\ DJHUHODWHG PDFXODU GHJHQHUDWLRQ UHVXOWV RI D VLQJOH
WUHDWPHQWLQDSKDVHDQGVWXG\$UFK2SKWKDOPRO


6FKPLGW(UIXUWK 8 0LOOHU -: 6LFNHQEHUJ 0 HW DO  3KRWRG\QDPLF WKHUDS\ ZLWK YHUWHSRUILQ IRU
FKRURLGDO QHRYDVFXODUL]DWLRQ FDXVHG E\ DJHUHODWHG PDFXODU GHJHQHUDWLRQ UHVXOWV RI
UHWUHDWPHQWVLQDSKDVHDQGVWXG\$UFK2SKWKDOPRO


0DFXODU 3KRWRFRDJXODWLRQ 6WXG\ *URXS  9LVXDO RXWFRPH DIWHU ODVHU SKRWRFRDJXODWLRQ IRU
VXEIRYHDO FKRURLGDO QHRYDVFXODUL]DWLRQ VHFRQGDU\ WR DJHUHODWHG PDFXODU GHJHQHUDWLRQ  $UFK
2SKWKDOPRO


6WHLQEHUJ(3-DYLWW-&6KDUNH\3'=XFNHUPDQ$/HJUR0:$QGHUVRQ*)%DVV(%2
'D\
'7KHFRQWHQWDQGFRVWRIFDWDUDFWVXUJHU\$UFK2SKWKDOPRO


%HDWW\6.RK+3KLO0+HQVRQ'%RXOWRQ07KHUROHRIR[LGDWLYHVWUHVVLQWKHSDWKRJHQHVLV
RIDJHUHODWHGPDFXODUGHJHQHUDWLRQ6XUY2SKWKDOPRO


7D\ORU $ &DWDUDFW UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ QXWULWLRQ DQG R[LGDWLRQ  - $P &ROO 1XWU 



$JH5HODWHG(\H'LVHDVH6WXG\5HVHDUFK*URXS$UDQGRPL]HGSODFHERFRQWUROOHGFOLQLFDOWULDO
RI KLJKGRVH VXSSOHPHQWDWLRQ ZLWK YLWDPLQV & DQG ( EHWD FDURWHQH DQG ]LQF IRU DJHUHODWHG
PDFXODUGHJHQHUDWLRQDQGYLVLRQORVV$5('6UHSRUWQR$UFK2SKWKDOPRO



$JH5HODWHG(\H'LVHDVH6WXG\5HVHDUFK*URXS$UDQGRPL]HGSODFHERFRQWUROOHGFOLQLFDOWULDO
RIKLJKGRVHVXSSOHPHQWDWLRQZLWKYLWDPLQV&DQG(DQGEHWDFDURWHQHIRUDJHUHODWHGFDWDUDFW
DQGYLVLRQORVV$5('6UHSRUWQR$UFK2SKWKDOPRO


.OHLQ5:DQJ4.OHLQ%(0RVV6(0HXHU607KHUHODWLRQVKLSRIDJHUHODWHGPDFXORSDWK\
FDWDUDFWDQGJODXFRPDWRYLVXDODFXLW\,QYHVW2SKWKDOPRO9LV6FL
&/26('())(&7,9(
H
H%HDYHU
H%HDYHU
VXEFDSVXODU OH
EFDSVXODU
QHRYDVFXODUL]
QHRYDVFXODU
WHG PDFXODU
HG PDFXOD
JXODWLRQ RI VX
XODWLRQ RI VX
PRO

3KRWRG\QDPLF
3KRWRG\
HG PDFXODU GH
PDFXODU G
DOPRO
OPRO
0
0 HW DO  3KR
HW DO  3KR
E\ DJH
E\ DJ UHOD
HOD
$UFK2SKWKD
$UFK2SKWK
\ *URXS
\ *URXS
9
DUL]DWLRQ VHF
DUL]DWLRQ V


&6KDUNH\3'
&6KDUNH\
FRVWRIFDWDUD
FRVWRIFDWDUD
+3KLO0+H
3KLO0+H
HGPDFXODUGH
HGPDFXODUGH
$ &DWDUDFW
$ &DWDUDFW

$JH5HODWHG
$JH5HODWHG
RI KLJKGR
RI KLJKG
PDFXOD
PDFXOD





6%
3DJH


.OHLQ 5 .OHLQ %( -HQVHQ 6& 0HXHU 60  7KH ILYH\HDU LQFLGHQFH DQG SURJUHVVLRQ RI DJH
UHODWHGPDFXORSDWK\WKH%HDYHU'DP(\H6WXG\2SKWKDOPRORJ\

*HUVWHU+5HYLHZDQWLR[LGDQWSURWHFWLRQRIWKHDJHLQJPDFXOD$JH$JHLQJ


5RWUXFN -7 3RSH $/ *DQWKHU +( 6ZDQVRQ $% +DIHPDQ '* +RHNVWUD :* 6HOHQLXP
ELRFKHPLFDOUROHDVDFRPSRQHQWRIJOXWDWKLRQHSHUR[LGDVH6FLHQFH


&KRZ&.1XWULWLRQDOLQIOXHQFHRQFHOOXODUDQWLR[LGDQWGHIHQVHV\VWHPV$P-&OLQ1XWU



&RPEV*)-U&RPEV6%7KHQXWULWLRQDOELRFKHPLVWU\RIVHOHQLXP,Q'DUE\:-%URTXLVW+3
2OVRQ5(HGV$QQXDO5HYLHZRI1XWULWLRQY3DOR$OWR$QQXDO5HYLHZV,QF


+RHNVWUD:*%LRFKHPLFDOIXQFWLRQRIVHOHQLXPDQGLWVUHODWLRQWRYLWDPLQ()HG3URF



'LSORFK$77KHELRORJLFDOIXQFWLRQRIYLWDPLQ(DQGWKHQDWXUHRIWKHLQWHUDFWLRQRIWKHYLWDPLQ
ZLWKVHOHQLXP:RUOG5HY1XWU'LHW


7LUPHQVWHLQ05HHG'-(IIHFWVRIJOXWDWKLRQHRQWKHDOSKDWRFRSKHUROGHSHQGHQWLQKLELWLRQRI
QXFOHDUOLSLGSHUR[LGDWLRQ-/LSLG5HV


/DFKLQ -0 )RXONHV 0$  (YDOXDWLRQ RI VDPSOH VL]H DQG SRZHU IRU DQDO\VHV RI VXUYLYDO ZLWK
DOORZDQFH IRU QRQXQLIRUP SDWLHQW HQWU\ ORVVHV WR IROORZXS QRQFRPSOLDQFH DQG VWUDWLILFDWLRQ
%LRPHWULFV


.DSODQ(/0HLHU31RQSDUDPHWULFHVWLPDWLRQIURPLQFRPSOHWHREVHUYDWLRQV-$P6WDWLVW$VVRF



0DQWHO 1  (YDOXDWLRQ RI VXUYLYDO GDWD DQG WZR QHZ UDQN RUGHU VWDWLVWLFV DULVLQJ LQ WKLV
FRQVLGHUDWLRQ&DQFHU&KHPRWKHU5HS


&R['5HJUHVVLRQPRGHOVDQGOLIHWDEOHV-5R\6WDW6RF%


5RVQHU%6WDWLVWLFDOPHWKRGVLQRSKWKDOPRORJ\DQDGMXVWPHQWIRULQWUDFODVVFRUUHODWLRQEHWZHHQ
H\HV%LRPHWULFV


P
P


:-%URTXLVW
-%URTXLV
,QF
QF
PLQ()HG3UR
Q()HG3U
RIWKHLQWHUD
RIWKHLQWH
DOSKDWRFRSKH
DOSKDWRFRSK


H VL]H DQG SR
VL]H DQG SR
HV WR
HV WR IROORZX
IROORZ
VWLPDWLRQIU
VWLPDWLRQIURP
RP
XUYLYDO GDWD
XUYLYDO GDWD
PRWKHU5HS
PRWKHU5HS
RGHOVDQGOLIH
RGHOVDQGOLI
WLFDOPHWKRGV
LFDOPHWKRG
LFV


6%
3DJH


0$67(5)25066(7

127(  $OO IRUPV WR EH XWLOL]HG IRU WKLV VWXG\ ZLOO EH DYDLODEOH YLD WKH 6(/(&7 :RUNEHQFK DW
KWWSVZRJRUJ)RUPVFRPSOHWLRQDQGVXEPLVVLRQJXLGHOLQHVDUHIRXQGLQWKH6(/(&76WXG\
0DQXDO

$FRS\RIWKH,QLWLDO0RGHO,QIRUPHG&RQVHQWGRFXPHQWIRU6%6((LVHQFORVHGDQGPXVW
EHUHYLHZHGDQGDSSURYHGE\WKHLQVWLWXWLRQDO,5%EHIRUHSODFLQJDSDUWLFLSDQWRQVWXG\


&/26('())(&7,9(
XVWVW

6%
3DJH

5HYLVHG

5HYLVHG


)RU,5%XVHRQO\QRWWREHLQFOXGHGLQSDWLHQWLQIRUPDWLRQ
7KLV PRGHO LQIRUPHG FRQVHQW IRUP KDV EHHQ UHYLHZHG E\ WKH '&71&, DQG LV WKH RIILFLDO FRQVHQW
GRFXPHQWIRUWKLVVWXG\/RFDO,5%FKDQJHVWRWKLVGRFXPHQWDUHDOORZHG,QVWLWXWLRQVVKRXOGDWWHPSWWR
XVHVHFWLRQVRIWKLVGRFXPHQWZKLFKDUHLQEROGW\SHLQWKHLUHQWLUHW\(GLWRULDOFKDQJHVWRWKHVHVHFWLRQV
PD\ EH PDGH DV ORQJ DV WKH\ GR QRW FKDQJH LQIRUPDWLRQ RU LQWHQW  ,I WKH LQVWLWXWLRQDO ,5% LQVLVWV RQ
PDNLQJ GHOHWLRQV RU PRUH VXEVWDQWLYH PRGLILFDWLRQV WR WKH ULVNV RU DOWHUQDWLYHV VHFWLRQV WKH\ PD\ EH
MXVWLILHGLQZULWLQJE\WKHLQYHVWLJDWRUDQGDSSURYHGE\WKH,5%8QGHUWKHVHFLUFXPVWDQFHVWKHUHYLVHG
ODQJXDJH MXVWLILFDWLRQ DQG D FRS\ RI WKH ,5% PLQXWHV PXVW EH IRUZDUGHG WR WKH 6RXWKZHVW 2QFRORJ\
*URXS2SHUDWLRQV2IILFHIRUDSSURYDOEHIRUHDSDWLHQWPD\EHUHJLVWHUHGWRWKLVVWXG\
5HDGDELOLW\6WDWLVWLFV )OHVFK5HDGLQJ(DVH

WDUJHWHGDERYH



)OHVFK.LQFDLG*UDGH/HYHO
WDUJHWHGEHORZ
6%3UHYHQWLRQRI&DWDUDFWDQG$JH5HODWHG0DFXODU
'HJHQHUDWLRQ:LWK9LWDPLQ(DQG6HOHQLXP6(/(&7(\H(QGSRLQWV
6((3KDVH,,,$QFLOODU\WR66(/(&7
<RXDUHEHLQJDVNHGWRWDNHSDUWLQWKLVUHVHDUFKVWXG\6(/(&7(\H(QGSRLQWV±6((EHFDXVH
\RXDUHWDNLQJSDUWLQ6(/(&7DQGEHFDXVH\RXKDYHUHSRUWHGWKDW\RXZHUHGLDJQRVHGZLWK
DJHUHODWHGPDFXODUGHJHQHUDWLRQ$0'RUDFDWDUDFW:HDUHDVNLQJ\RXWRUHOHDVH
PHGLFDOUHFRUGVDERXW\RXUH\HGLDJQRVLV
:+<,67+,6678'<%(,1*'21("
7KHSXUSRVHRI6(/(&7LQZKLFK\RXDUHWDNLQJSDUWLVWRVHHLIWKHUHLVD
GLIIHUHQFHLQILQGLQJSURVWDWHFDQFHUEHWZHHQDJURXSRIKHDOWK\PHQZKR
UHFHLYHGVHOHQLXPDORQHYLWDPLQ(DORQHVHOHQLXPDQGYLWDPLQ(DQG
SODFHER
$JHUHODWHGPDFXODUGHJHQHUDWLRQ$0'DQGFDWDUDFWDUHWZROHDGLQJ
FDXVHVRIYLVXDOLPSDLUPHQWLQROGHU$PHULFDQV$0'LVDGLVHDVH
WKDWDIIHFWV\RXUFHQWUDOYLVLRQDQGLVWKHOHDGLQJFDXVHRIYLVXDOSUREOHPV
DQGEOLQGQHVVZLWKDERXWRISHRSOHRYHU\HDUVVKRZLQJVRPH$0'
&DWDUDFWLVDFORXGLQJRIWKHH\H
VOHQVWKDWFDXVHVORVVRIYLVLRQ0RUHWKDQ
RIDGXOWVLQWKH86DJHG\HDUVDQGROGHUVXIIHUIURPYLVXDOO\
VLJQLILFDQWFDWDUDFW6RPHHYLGHQFHVXJJHVWVWKDWWKHYLWDPLQVEHLQJVWXGLHG
LQ6(/(&7PLJKWSUHYHQWWKHVHH\HSUREOHPV7KLVVWXG\ZLOOORRNDWWKLV
TXHVWLRQLQDODUJHJURXSRIPHQDOUHDG\DVVLJQHGWRWDNHRQHERWKRU
QHLWKHURIWKHVHYLWDPLQVPHQLQWKH6(/(&7VWXG\

&/26('())(&7,9(
RQV

WV RQ
V R

PD\ EH
PD\ EH

KHUHYLVHG
HUHYLV

HVW 2QFRORJ\
HVW 2QFRORJ

5HODWHG0D
HODWHG0D
6(/(&7(
(/(&7(


(
6(/(
6(/
6(/(&7(\
6(/(&7(\
YHUHSRUWHGWK
YHUHSRUWHGWK
WDUDFW
WDUDFW 

'21(
21("
(/(&7LQZ
(/(&7LQZ
LQGLQJSURVW
LQGLQJSURVW
HQLXPDORQH
HQLXPDORQ
HUHODWHGPD
HUHODWHGPD
FDXVHVRIYLVX
FDXVHVRI
WKDWDIIHFW
WKDWDIIHF
DQGEOL
DQGEOL
&DWD
&DWD



6%
3DJH

5HYLVHG

5HYLVHG

+2:0$1<3(23/(:,//7$.(3$57,17+(678'<"
7DNLQJSDUWLQWKLVVWXG\LV\RXUFKRLFH:KLOHDOOPHQLQ6(/(&7DERXW
PHQZLOOVXEPLWEDVHOLQHLQIRUPDWLRQDERXWFDWDUDFWVDQG$0'DSSUR[LPDWHO\
PHQPD\EHDVNHGWRVXEPLWDGGLWLRQDOPHGLFDOLQIRUPDWLRQDERXWFDWDUDFW
WKHFDWDUDFWHOLJLELOLW\FULWHULRQZDVFORVHGHIIHFWLYHDQGPHQPD\
EHDVNHGWRVXEPLWDGGLWLRQDOPHGLFDOLQIRUPDWLRQDERXW$0'IRUWKLVVWXG\

:+$7,6,192/9(',17+(678'<"
,QIRUPDWLRQDERXW\RXUKHDOWKLQFOXGLQJSULRUGLDJQRVHVRIFDWDUDFWDQG$0'LV
EHLQJFROOHFWHGDVSDUWRIWKH6(/(&7VWXG\%HFDXVH\RXKDYHEHHQGLDJQRVHG
WRKDYHDQH\HFRQGLWLRQZHDUHDVNLQJ\RXWRUHOHDVHPHGLFDOUHFRUGVUHODWHGWR
\RXUH\HGLDJQRVLVDQGFRQWDFWLQIRUPDWLRQIRU\RXUWUHDWLQJH\HGRFWRUWR
+DUYDUG0HGLFDO6FKRRO'U:LOOLDP&KULVWHQ
'U&KULVWHQZLOOUHYLHZ\RXUUHFRUGVDQGPD\FRQWDFW\RXUH\HGRFWRUWRJHW
DGGLWLRQDOGHWDLOVDERXW\RXUH\HGLDJQRVLV
+2:/21*:,//,%(,17+(678'<"
<RXUGHFLVLRQWRUHOHDVHPHGLFDOUHFRUGVDQGLQIRUPDWLRQWRFRQWDFW\RXUH\H
GRFWRUIRUHDFKDSSOLFDEOHH\HGLDJQRVLVZLOOEHWKHH[WHQWRI\RXUSDUWLFLSDWLRQLQ
WKLVVWXG\
:+$7$5(7+(5,6.62)7+(678'<"
(IIRUWVZLOOEHPDGHWRNHHS\RXUSHUVRQDOLQIRUPDWLRQFRQILGHQWLDO:H
FDQQRWJXDUDQWHHDEVROXWHFRQILGHQWLDOLW\<RXUSHUVRQDOLQIRUPDWLRQPD\
EHGLVFORVHGLIUHTXLUHGE\ODZ

)RUPRUHLQIRUPDWLRQDERXWULVNVDQGVLGHHIIHFWVDVNWKHUHVHDUFKHURU
FRQWDFWBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB


$5(7+(5(%(1(),76727$.,1*3$57,17+(678'<"
7KHUHLVQRJXDUDQWHHWKDW\RXZLOOJHWDQ\SHUVRQDOEHQHILWIURPWDNLQJSDUWLQ
WKLVVWXG\7KHILQGLQJVRIWKLVVWXG\PD\KHOSLQRXUXQGHUVWDQGLQJRIFDWDUDFWRU
$0'DQGPD\KHOSRWKHUSHRSOHZLWKWKHVHGLVHDVHVLQWKHIXWXUH
&/26('())(&7,9(

O\O\
WDUDFW
DFW
PHQPD\
HQPD\
VVWXG\
VVWXG\
VHVRIFDWDUDF
VHVRIFDWDUDF
DXVH\RXKDY
DXVH\RXKDY
UHOHDVHPHGLF
HDVHPHGLF
IRU\RXUWUHDW
IRU\RXUWUHD
ULVWHQ
ULVWHQ
GVDQGPD\FR
VDQGPD\FR
GLDJQRVLV
GLDJQRVLV
78'<
78' "
DVHPHGLFDOU
DVHPHGLFDOU
SOLFDEOHH\HG
SOLFDEOHH\H
5,6.6
,6.6 2) 7
IIRUWVZLOOEH
IRUWVZLOOEH
FDQQRWJXDU
FDQQRWJX
EHGLVFORV
EHGLVFOR
)RU
)RU
FR
F
$5( 7+

6%
3DJH

:+$727+(5237,216$5(7+(5("
,I\RXFKRRVHQRWWRWDNHSDUWLQ6%6((EXWUHPDLQLQ6(/(&7\RX
KDYHWKHVHRWKHURSWLRQV
<RXDUHHQFRXUDJHGWRKDYHH\HFKHFNXSVE\\RXUH\HGRFWRUDQGWRIROORZ
WKHWUHDWPHQWUHFRPPHQGHGE\\RXUH\HGRFWRU5HPHPEHUWKDWLI\RX
FKRRVHWRWDNHYLWDPLQVXSSOHPHQWVIRU\RXUH\HVWKHVXSSOHPHQWVPXVWQRW
FRQWDLQYLWDPLQ(RUVHOHQLXPLI\RXDUHLQ6(/(&73OHDVHWDONWR\RXU
UHJXODUGRFWRUDERXWWKHVHDQGRWKHURSWLRQV
:+$7$%287&21),'(17,$/,7<"
(IIRUWVZLOOEHPDGHWRNHHS\RXUSHUVRQDOLQIRUPDWLRQFRQILGHQWLDO:HFDQQRW
JXDUDQWHHDEVROXWHFRQILGHQWLDOLW\<RXUSHUVRQDOLQIRUPDWLRQPD\EHGLVFORVHGLI
UHTXLUHGE\ODZ
2UJDQL]DWLRQVWKDWPD\LQVSHFWDQGRUFRS\\RXUUHVHDUFKUHFRUGVIRUTXDOLW\
DVVXUDQFHDQGGDWDDQDO\VLVLQFOXGHJURXSVVXFKDVWKH1DWLRQDO&DQFHU,QVWLWXWH
+DUYDUG0HGLFDO6FKRROWKH)RRGDQG'UXJ$GPLQLVWUDWLRQWKH1DWLRQDO(\H
,QVWLWXWHWKHPDNHUVRIYLWDPLQ(VHOHQLXPDQGSODFHERSLOOVIRUWKHVWXG\DQG
WKH6RXWKZHVW2QFRORJ\*URXS
,IZHSXEOLVKWKHLQIRUPDWLRQZHOHDUQIURPWKLVVWXG\LQDPHGLFDOMRXUQDO\RX
ZLOOQRWEHLGHQWLILHGE\QDPHRULQDQ\RWKHUZD\
:+$7$5(7+(&2676"
<RXZLOOUHFHLYHQRSD\PHQWIRUWDNLQJSDUWLQWKLVVWXG\
:+$7$5(0<5,*+76$6$3$57,&,3$17"
7DNLQJSDUWLQWKLVVWXG\LVYROXQWDU\<RXPD\GHFOLQHWDNLQJSDUWLQ6((
ZLWKRXWDQ\HIIHFWRQ\RXUSDUWLFLSDWLRQLQ6(/(&7
$'DWDDQG6DIHW\0RQLWRULQJ&RPPLWWHHDQLQGHSHQGHQWJURXSRIH[SHUWVZLOO
EHUHYLHZLQJWKHGDWDIURPWKLVUHVHDUFKWKURXJKRXWWKHVWXG\:HZLOOWHOO\RX
DERXWLPSRUWDQWQHZLQIRUPDWLRQIURPWKLVRURWKHUVWXGLHVWKDWPD\DIIHFW\RXU
KHDOWKZHOIDUHRUZLOOLQJQHVVWRVWD\LQWKLVVWXG\
&/26('())(&7,9(
XVWQRW
XVWQR
R\RXU
R\RX
FRQILGHQWLDO:
FRQILGHQWLD
RUPDWLRQPD\
RUPDWLRQPD\
\RXUUHVHDUFK
RXUUHVHDUFK
VVXFKDVWKH
VXFKD
'UXJ$GPLQ
UXJ$GPLQ
HOHQLXPDQGS
HOHQLXPDQGS
RQZHOHDUQIU
QZHOHDUQ
QDPHRULQDQ
QDPHRULQ
FHLYHQRSD\P
FHLYHQRSD\
0< 5,*+76
,*+76
5
7DNLQJSDUW
7DNLQJSD
ZLWKRXW
ZLWKRXW
$
$

6%
3DJH

:+20'2,&$//,),+$9(48(67,21625352%/(06"
7KHSHUVRQVLQFKDUJHRIWKLVVWXG\DUH'UV:LOOLDP&KULVWHQDQG5REHUW*O\QQ
RIWKH+DUYDUG0HGLFDO6FKRRO
)RUTXHVWLRQVDERXWWKHVWXG\FRQWDFWWKHUHVHDUFKHU1$0(6DW7(/(3+21(
180%(5
)RUTXHVWLRQVDERXW\RXUULJKWVDVDUHVHDUFKSDUWLFLSDQWFRQWDFWWKH1$0(2)
&(17(5,QVWLWXWLRQDO5HYLHZ%RDUGZKLFKLVDJURXSRISHRSOHZKRUHYLHZWKH
UHVHDUFKWRSURWHFW\RXUULJKWVDW7(/(3+21(180%(5>$QGLIDYDLODEOHOLVW
SDUWLFLSDQWUHSUHVHQWDWLYHRURWKHULQGLYLGXDOZKRLVQRWRQWKHUHVHDUFKWHDPRU
,5%@
:+(5(&$1,*(7025(,1)250$7,21"
>7R,5%,QYHVWLJDWRUV$WWDFKLQIRUPDWLRQPDWHULDOVDQGFKHFNOLVWRI
DWWDFKPHQWV6LJQDWXUHSDJHVKRXOGEHDWWKHHQGRISDFNDJH<RXPD\DOVRZLVK
WRLQFOXGHWKHIROORZLQJLQIRUPDWLRQDOUHVRXUFHV@

<RXPD\FDOOWKH1&,¶V&DQFHU,QIRUPDWLRQ6HUYLFHDW
±±±&$1&(5±±±RU77<±±±

9LVLWWKH1&,
V:HEVLWH«
ZZZFDQFHUJRY

9LVLWWKH1DWLRQDO(\H,QVWLWXWHV:HEVLWHV«
ZZZQHLQLKJRY

2U3UHYHQW%OLQGQHVV$PHULFD
ZZZSUHYHQWEOLQGQHVVRUJH\HBSUREOHPV

<RXZLOOJHWDFRS\RIWKLVIRUP<RXPD\DOVRUHTXHVWDFRS\RIWKHSURWRFRO
IXOOVWXG\SODQ

6,*1$785(
<RXDUHGHFLGLQJZKHWKHURUQRWWRWDNHSDUWLQWKLVVWXG\,I\RXVLJQLWPHDQV
WKDW\RXKDYHGHFLGHGWRYROXQWHHUWRWDNHSDUWLQWKLVVWXG\DQGWKDW\RXKDYH
UHDGDQGXQGHUVWRRGDOOWKHLQIRUPDWLRQRQWKLVIRUP
0\ FRQVHQW WR SDUWLFLSDWH LQ 6(/(&7 KDV EHHQ SURYLGHG LQ D VHSDUDWH
GRFXPHQW
3DUWLFLSDQWBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB 'DWHBBBBBBBBBBBB
&/26('())(&7,9(
1(
(

1$0(2)
1$0(2)

KRUHYLHZWKH
KRUHYLHZWKH
LIDYDLODEOH
LIDYDLODEOH
KHUHVHDUFKW
UHVHDUFKW
WHULDOVDQGFK
DOVDQGFK
HHQGRISDFN
HHQGRISDFN
VRXUFHV@
RXUFHV@
RUPDWLRQ6HU
RUPDWLRQ6
±RU77
±RU77
(\H,QVWLWXWH
(\H,QVWLWXWH
RY
RY
QW%OLQGQHVV
QW%OLQGQH
SUHYHQWEOLQGQ
YHQWEOLQGQ
<RXZLOOJHW
<RXZLOO
IXOOVWXG\
IXOOVWXG\
$785(
$785(