some aspects of the spline smoothing approach to non parametric regression curve fitting non parametric regression using cubic splines is an attractive flexible and widely applicable approach to curve estimation although the basic idea was formulated many years ago the method is not as widely known or adopted as perhaps it should be the topics and examples discussed in this paper are intended to promote the understanding and extend the practicability of the spline smoothing methodology particular subjects covered include the basic principles of the method the relation with moving average and other smoothing methods the automatic choice of the amount of smoothing and the use of residuals for diagnostic checking and model adaptation the question of providing inference regions for curves and for relevant properties of curves is approached via a finite dimensional bayesian formulation

splines in statistics abstract this is a survey article that attempts to synthesize a broad variety of work on splines in statistics splines are presented as a nonparametric function estimating technique after a general introduction to the theory of interpolating and smoothing splines splines are treated in the nonparametric regression setting the method of cross validation for choosing the smoothing parameter is discussed and the general multivariate regression surface estimation problem is addressed an extensive discussion of splines as nonparametric density estimators is followed by a discussion of their role in time series analysis a comparison of the spline and isotonic regression methodologies leads to a formulation of a hybrid estimator the closing section provides a brief overall summary and formulates a number of open unsolved problems relating to splines in statistics

on the estimation of a probability density function by the maximum penalized likelihood method abstract a class of probability density estimates can be obtained by penalizing the likelihood by a functional which depends on the roughness of the logarithm of the density the limiting case of the estimates as the amount of smoothing increasing has a natural form which makes the method attractive for data analysis and which provides a rationale for a particular choice of roughness penalty the estimates are shown to be the solution of an unconstrained convex optimization problem and mild natural conditions are given for them to exist rates of consistency in various norms and conditions for asymptotic normality and approximation by a gaussian process are given thus breaking new ground in the theory of maximum penalized likelihood density estimation author

a fast and efficient cross validation method for smoothing parameter choice in spline regression abstract the spline smoothing approach to nonparametric regression is considered with particular reference to the problem of choosing how much to smooth both computational and statistical aspects of the method of cross validation are discussed an approximate cross validation method is proposed that requires a small linear amount of computer time a simulation study indicates that the method has very good statistical properties some mathematical justification and motivation are also provided

smoothing splines regression derivatives and deconvolution abstract the statistical properties of a cubic smoothing spline and its derivative are analyzed it is shown that unless unnatural boundary conditions hold the integrated squared bias is dominated by local effects near the boundary similar effects are shown to occur in the regularized solution of a translation kernel integral equation these results are derived by developing a fourier representation for a smoothing spline author

ridge regression biased estimation for nonorthogonal problems in multiple regression it is shown that parameter estimates based on minimum residual sum of squares have a high probability of being unsatisfactory if not incorrect if the prediction vectors are not orthogonal proposed is an estimation procedure based on adding small positive quantities to the diagonal of x x introduced is the ridge trace a method for showing in two dimensions the effects of nonorthogonality it is then shown how to augment x x to obtain biased estimates with smaller mean square error

spline smoothing the equivalent variable kernel method on considere une approche spline pour la regression non parametrique et l estimation de courbe on montre que dans un certain sens le lissage spline correspond approximativement au lissage par une methode du noyau avec une largeur de bande dependant de la densite locale des points du plan de regression

plurality and resemblance in fmri data analysis abstract we apply nine analytic methods employed currently in imaging neuroscience to simulated and actual bold fmri signals and compare their performances under each signal type starting with baseline time series generated by a resting subject during a null hypothesis study we compare method performance with embedded focal activity in these series of three different types whose magnitudes and time courses are simple convolved with spatially varying hemodynamic responses and highly spatially interactive we then apply these same nine methods to bold fmri time series from contralateral primary motor cortex and ipsilateral cerebellum collected during a sequential finger opposition study paired comparisons of results across methods include a voxel specific concordance correlation coefficient for reproducibility and a resemblance measure that accommodates spatial autocorrelation of differences in activity surfaces receiver operating characteristic curves show considerable model differences in ranges less than 10 significance level false positives and greater than 80 power true positives concordance and resemblance measures reveal significant differences between activity surfaces in both data sets these measures can assist researchers by identifying groups of models producing similar and dissimilar results and thereby help to validate consolidate and simplify reports of statistical findings a pluralistic strategy for fmri data analysis can uncover invariant and highly interactive relationships between local activity foci and serve as a basis for further discovery of organizational principles of the brain results also suggest that a pluralistic empirical strategy coupled formally with substantive prior knowledge can help to uncover new brain behavior relationships that may remain hidden if only a single method is employed

automatic smoothing of regression functions in generalized linear models abstract we consider the penalized likelihood method for estimating nonparametric regression functions in generalized linear models nelder and wedderburn 1972 and present a generalized cross validation procedure for empirically assessing an appropriate amount of smoothing in these estimates asymptotic arguments and numerical simulations are used to show that the generalized cross validatory procedure preforms well from the point of view of a weighted mean squared error criterion the methodology adds to the battery of graphical tools for model building and checking within the generalized linear model framework included are two examples motivated by medical and horticultural applications

the l 1 method for robust nonparametric regression abstract consider the problem of estimating the regression function underlying a set of data that is contaminated by a heavy tailed error distribution the two standard approaches to such a problem are each flawed robust parametric least squares is appropriate only if there is good reason to believe that the underlying function has some particular form whereas most nonparametric regression methods are asymptotically equivalent to kernel regression methods which are not resistant against outliers existing algorithms for robustifying nonparametric regression procedures use either nonlinear optimization of an influence function or iterative solution of local polynomial fitting using reweighted least squares neither of these two approaches combines computational ease with asymptotic theoretical results furthermore application of the robust procedure has been limited almost exclusively to the case of a single explanatory variable with the response variable in this article a new hybrid method is propose

proprietes de convergence presque complete du predicteur a noyau let z n be a mixing process which is valued in mathbb e subset mathbb r q g be a real measurable function defined on mathbb e s and k be two positive integers we suppose the existence of a function r satisfying r e g z n s z n k 1 z n n n k and estimate the function r from a sequence z i i 1 n by r n with r n u frac sum limits i k n s g z i s k u z i k 1 cdots z i h n 1 sum limits i k n s k u z i k 1 cdots z i h n 1 forall u in mathbb e k where k is a kernel of kq and h n h n 0 we give various conditions on both the sequences h n and the sequence n which is associated with z n for the two following properties uniform complete convergence to r for the functional estimator r n and complete convergence to 0 for the real random variable r n z n k 1 z n r zn k 1 z n this last result concerns the predictor r n z n k 1 z n of g z n s from z i i 1 n when the process z n is stationary and markovian of order k

fixed points for mixed monotone multivalued operators in banach spaces with applications abstract in this paper the existence and iterative approximation of fixed points for a class of systems of mixed monotone multivalued operator are discussed we present some new fixed point theorems of mixed monotone operators and increasing operators which need not be continuous or satisfy a compactness condition we also give some applications to differential inclusions with discontinuous right hand side in banach spaces and to hammerstein integral inclusions on r n

fuzzy bitopological space induced by fuzzy quasi pseudo norm and its conjugate abstract a fuzzy bitopological space x b x t p t q is considered where t p and t q are fuzzy topologies induced by fuzzy quasi pseudo norm p and its conjugate q introducing notion of quasi pseudo norm and its conjugate in fuzzy structure fuzzy topologies are generated by such fuzzy norms and characterization of a pairwise hausdorff fuzzy bitopological space is established in this paper

bayesian confidence intervals for the cross validated smoothing spline summary we consider the model y t g ti ei i 17 2 n where g t t 0 1 is a smooth function and the ei are independent n 0 a2 errors with g2 unknown the cross validated smoothing spline can be used to estimate g non parametrically from

iterative solution of systems originating from integral equations and surface interpolation a simple procedure for generating diagonal dominance in certain linear systems is presented and the iterative solution of the transformed systems is discussed the method is presented for systems encountered in the numerical solution of fredholm equations of the first kind with singular kernels and for systems arising in the interpolation of surfaces by certain sets of radial functions in the second case the method provides new sets of basis functions generalizing in some sense the univariate b splines

linear models for field trials smoothing and cross validation abstract spatial methods for the analysis of agricultural field experiments are represented here as smoothing methods applied simultaneously with the estimation of treatment effects selection of both the form of the smoother and the degree of smoothing required may be based on cross validation particular emphasis is placed in this paper on generalized least squares estimation ion linear models but the principle applies quite generally keywords agricultural field experiments generalized least squares incomplete block designs neighbour methods papadakis method recovery of inter block formation smoothing and spatial models

constructing a bootstrap confidence interval for the unknown concentration in radioimmunoassay the statistical problem associated with radioimmunoassay is known as calibration or inverse regression in the current study we propose a bootstrap procedure aimed at constructing an inverse confidence interval for the univariate calibration problem the calibration curve is estimated either parametrically or by non parametric regression the methods are illustrated by an example

a comparison of gcv and gml for choosing the smoothing parameter in the generalized spline smoothing problem the partially improper prior behind the smoothing spline model is used to obtain a generalization of the maximum likelihood gml estimate for the smoothing parameter then this estimate is compared with the generalized cross validation gcv estimate both analytically and by monte carlo methods the comparison is based on a predictive mean square error criteria it is shown that if the true unknown function being estimated is smooth in a sense to be defined then the gml estimate undersmooths relative to the gcv estimate and the predictive mean square error using the gml estimate goes to zero at a slower rate than the mean square error using the gcv estimate if the true function is rough then the gcv and gml estimates have asymptotically similar behavior a monte carlo experiment was designed to see if the asymptotic results in the smooth case were evident in small sample sizes mixed results were obtained for n 32 gcv was somewhat better than gml for n 64 and gcv was decidedly superior for n 128 in the n 32 case gcv was better for smaller sigma 2 and the comparison close for larger sigma 2 the theoretical results are shown to extend to the generalized spline smoothing model which includes the estimate of functions given noisy values of various integrals of them

two graphical displays for outlying and influential observations in regression summary the paper describes two procedures for detecting observations with outlying values either in the response variable or in the explanatory variables in multiple regression these procedures are presented as half normal plots with envelopes derived from simulation in order to avoid overinterpretation of the data analysis of a well known data set leads to the use of a data transformation a simple test for which is commended and to some comments on the relationship with robust regression the widespread availability of sophisticated computer software has made the fitting of multiple regression equations painless but the very ease of these procedures may cause insufficient care to be given to checking and scrutiny of the data transcription punching and data manipulation errors may lead to bad values both of the observations y and of the independent or explanatory variables x it is the purpose of the present paper to describe and exemplify two plots which provide checks against such bad values it is argued that these plots and a test for transformations should accompany any thorough regression analysis bad values of the response or outliers have long been detected by a variety of plots of residuals bad values of the explanatory variables are less easily detected even when they lead to an extreme point in the design space since the fitted equation will pass close to such an influential observation the residual may not be especially large even after allowance has been made for the small variance of the fitted value at such a point to detect such behaviour a quantity is needed which exhibits the dependence of the fitted model on each point or group of points discussions of such quantities are given by hoaglin welsch 1978 and more recently by belsley kuh welsch 1980 2 1 by cook weisberg 1980 and by pregibon 1981 the quantity used here is a modification of a statistic proposed by cook 1977 which is derived in 2 two half normal plots are presented in 3 as an aid to interpretation envelopes to the plots are generated by simulation examples of the plots are given in 4 both for simulated data and for the stack loss data given by brownlee 1965 p 454 transformations of this data set are discussed in 5 the paper concludes with some comments on the relationship with robust

the signal extraction approach to nonlinear regression and spline smoothing abstract this article shows how to fit a smooth curve polynomial spline to pairs of data values yi xi prior specification of a parametric functional form for the curve is not required the resulting curve can be used to describe the pattern of the data and to predict unknown values of y given x both point and interval estimates are produced the method is easy to use and the computational requirements are modest even for large sample sizes our method is based on maximum likelihood estimation of a signal in noise model of the data we use the kalman filter to evaluate the likelihood function and achieve significant computational advantages over previous approaches to this problem

penalized maximum likelihood estimation in logistic regression and discrimination summary maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters of the binary logistic regression model for pr h i x is discussed with separate discussion of sampling from i the conditional distribution of h given x ii the joint distribution of h and x and iii the conditional distribution of x given h difficulties associated with continuous x in the latter sampling scheme are discussed to avoid these penalized maximum likelihood estimates are introduced which give estimates of the logistic parameters and a nonparametric spline estimate of the marginal distribution of x extensions to multinomial logistic regression are outlined

an optimal selection of regression variables summary an asymptotically optimal selection of regression variables is proposed the key assumption is that the number of control variables is infinite or increases with the sample size it is also shown that mallows s qp akaike s fpe and aic methods are all asymptotically equivalent to this method