quantifying signals with power law correlations a comparative study of detrended fluctuation analysis and detrended moving average techniques detrended fluctuation analysis dfa and detrended moving average dma are two scaling analysis methods designed to quantify correlations in noisy nonstationary signals we systematically study the performance of different variants of the dma method when applied to artificially generated long range power law correlated signals with an a priori known scaling exponent alpha 0 and compare them with the dfa method we find that the scaling results obtained from different variants of the dma method strongly depend on the type of the moving average filter further we investigate the optimal scaling regime where the dfa and dma methods accurately quantify the scaling exponent alpha 0 and how this regime depends on the correlations in the signal finally we develop a three dimensional representation to determine how the stability of the scaling curves obtained from the dfa and dma methods depends on the scale of analysis the order of detrending and the order of the moving average we use as well as on the type of correlations in the signal

information transfer network of global market indices abstract we study the topological properties of the information transfer networks itn of the global financial market indices for six different periods itn is a directed weighted network in which the direction and weight are determined by the transfer entropy between market indices by applying the threshold method it is found that itn undergoes a crossover from the complete graph to a small world sw network sw regime of itn for a global crisis is found to be much more enhanced than that for ordinary periods furthermore when itn is in sw regime the average clustering coefficient is found to be synchronized with average volatility of markets we also compare the results with the topological properties of correlation networks

an econophysics approach to the portuguese stock index psi 20 abstract we analyse the psi 20 portuguese stock index data series from 1993 to 2001 with a view to examining the structure of the series the appropriateness of the standard model forms for these data and evidence for market maturation the data demonstrate several distinct behavioural periods with characteristic dependence on different time scales and increased volatility during 1998 2000 the distribution of the daily logarithmic variation reveals an exponential decay in the central region with typically fatter tails than expected from the normal distribution in particular the characterisation of the time series profile of the daily variation with respect to the index value shows a power law with exponent 1 58 different from those predicted by the additive and multiplicative models in addition we model the index series using a fractional brownian motion formulation to obtain the hurst exponents evaluating these through detrended fluctuation analysis with different window sizes it seems clear that persistence is a feature of the initial period but is not evident as might be expected for periods of high volatility however some indication of recent improvements in stability is observed even for coarse graining this transition from persistent to anti persistent behaviour is clearly reflected in the hurst exponent values and supports to some extent the notion of volatility clustering furthermore the grouping of similar exponent values as the series data evolve suggests that short term memory is exhibited by the original series even when volatility is relatively high these findings are broadly supported by a further analysis of persistence in trends for the returns series with the autocorrelation function for the returns t x t x t of the psi 20 indicative of stronger short term memory effects although the modulus of return is not autocorrelated

on fitting the pareto levy distribution to stock market index data selecting a suitable cutoff value abstract the so called pareto levy or power law distribution has been successfully used as a model to describe probabilities associated to extreme variations of stock markets indexes worldwide the selection of the threshold parameter from empirical data and consequently the determination of the exponent of the distribution is often done using a simple graphical method based on a log log scale where a power law probability plot shows a straight line with slope equal to the exponent of the power law distribution this procedure can be considered subjective particularly with regard to the choice of the threshold or cutoff parameter in this work a more objective procedure based on a statistical measure of discrepancy between the empirical and the pareto levy distribution is presented the technique is illustrated for data sets from the new york stock exchange djia and the mexican stock market ipc

can one make any crash prediction in finance using the local hurst exponent idea abstract we apply the hurst exponent idea for investigation of djia index time series data the behavior of the local hurst exponent prior to drastic changes in financial series signal is analyzed the optimal length of the time window over which this exponent can be calculated in order to make some meaningful predictions is discussed our prediction hypothesis is verified with examples of 1929 and 1987 crashes as well as with more recent phenomena in stock market from the period 1995 to 2003 some interesting agreements are found

oscillation results for linear hamiltonian systems for linear hamiltonian systems this paper established some new oscillation criteria which improve previous results even for self adjoint second order differential systems the main tool used is a generalized riccati transformation

dynamical stochastic processes of returns in financial markets abstract we study the evolution of probability distribution functions of returns from the tick data of the korean treasury bond ktb futures and the s p 500 stock index which can be described by means of the fokker planck equation we show that the fokker planck equation and the langevin equation from the estimated kramers moyal coefficients can be estimated directly from the empirical data by analyzing the statistics of the returns we present quantitatively the deterministic and random influences on financial time series for both markets for which we can give a simple physical interpretation we particularly focus on the diffusion coefficient which may be important for the creation of a portfolio

the coupling analysis between stock market indices based on permutation measures abstract many information theoretic methods have been proposed for analyzing the coupling dependence between time series and it is significant to quantify the correlation relationship between financial sequences since the financial market is a complex evolved dynamic system recently we developed a new permutation based entropy called cross permutation entropy cpe to detect the coupling structures between two synchronous time series in this paper we extend the cpe method to weighted cross permutation entropy wcpe to address some of cpe s limitations mainly its inability to differentiate between distinct patterns of a certain motif and the sensitivity of patterns close to the noise floor it shows more stable and reliable results than cpe does when applied it to spiky data and ar 1 processes besides we adapt the cpe method to infer the complexity of short length time series by freely changing the time delay and test it with gaussian random series and random walks the modified method shows the advantages in reducing deviations of entropy estimation compared with the conventional one finally the weighted cross permutation entropy of eight important stock indices from the world financial markets is investigated and some useful and interesting empirical results are obtained

characterization of sleep stages by correlations in the magnitude and sign of heartbeat increments we study correlation properties of the magnitude and the sign of the increments in the time intervals between successive heartbeats during light sleep deep sleep and rapid eye movement rem sleep using the detrended fluctuation analysis method we find short range anticorrelations in the sign time series which are strong during deep sleep weaker during light sleep and even weaker during rem sleep in contrast we find long range positive correlations in the magnitude time series which are strong during rem sleep and weaker during light sleep we observe uncorrelated behavior for the magnitude during deep sleep since the magnitude series relates to the nonlinear properties of the original time series while the sign series relates to the linear properties our findings suggest that the nonlinear properties of the heartbeat dynamics are more pronounced during rem sleep thus the sign and the magnitude series provide information which is useful in distinguishing between the sleep stages

multifractal analysis of stock exchange crashes abstract we analyze the complexity of rare events of the djia index we reveal that the returns of the time series exhibit strong multifractal properties meaning that temporal correlations play a substantial role the effect of major stock market crashes can be best illustrated by the comparison of the multifractal spectra of the time series before and after the crash aftershock periods compared to foreshock periods exhibit richer and more complex dynamics compared to an average crash calculated by taking into account the larger 5 crashes of the djia index the 1929 event exhibits significantly more increase in multifractality than the 1987 crisis

log amplitude statistics for beck cohen superstatistics as a possible generalization of beck cohen superstatistical processes we study non gaussian processes with temporal heterogeneity of local variance to characterize the variance heterogeneity we define log amplitude cumulants and log amplitude autocovariance and derive closed form expressions of the log amplitude cumulants for ensuremath chi 2 inverse ensuremath chi 2 and log normal superstatistical distributions furthermore we show that ensuremath chi 2 and inverse ensuremath chi 2 superstatistics with degree 2 are closely related to an extreme value distribution called the gumbel distribution in these cases the corresponding superstatistical distributions result in the q gaussian distribution with q 5 3 and the bilateral exponential distribution respectively thus our finding provides a hypothesis that the asymptotic appearance of these two special distributions may be explained by a link with the asymptotic limit distributions involving extreme values in addition as an application of our approach we demonstrated that non gaussian fluctuations observed in a stock index futures market can be well approximated by the ensuremath chi 2 superstatistical distribution with degree 2

non extensive behavior of a stock market index at microscopic time scales abstract this paper presents an empirical investigation of the intraday brazilian stock market price fluctuations considering q gaussian distributions that emerge from a non extensive statistical mechanics our results show that when price returns are measured over intervals less than one hour the empirical distributions are well fitted by q gaussians with exponential damped tails scaling behavior is also observed for these microscopic time intervals we find that the time evolution of the return distributions is according to a super diffusive q gaussian stationary process within a nonlinear fokker planck equation this regime breaks down due to the exponential fall off of the tails which in turn governs the transient dynamics to the long term macroscopic gaussian regime this exponentially damped non extensive modeling provides a new framework to investigate the dynamics of other stock markets intraday price fluctuations

oscillation theorems for self adjoint matrix hamiltonian systems involving general means by use of monotone functionals and positive linear functionals a generalized riccati transformation and the general means technique some new oscillation criteria for the following self adjoint hamiltonian matrix system e x t a t x t b t y t y t c t x t a t y t are obtained the results obtained improve and complement that of kumari et al 2000 on kamenev type theorems moreover these results generalize and improve earlier results due to meng 2002 for e erbe et al 1993 meng et al 1998 and wang 2001 for p t x t q t x t 0 or its special cases and wong 2001 for the scalar system x t q t x t 0

scale invariance and universality organizing principles in complex systems this paper is a brief summary of a talk that was designed to address the question of whether two of the pillars of the eld of phase transitions and critical phenomena scale invariance and universality can be useful in guiding research on a broad class of complex phenomena we shall see that while scale invariance has been tested for many years universality is relatively more rarely discussed in particular we shall develop a heuristic argument that serves to make more plausible the universality hypothesis in both thermal critical phenomena and percolation phenomena and suggest that this argument could be developed into a possible coherent approach to understanding the ubiquity of scale invariance and universality in a wide range of complex systems c 2000 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

autocorrelation and cross correlation in time series of homicide and attempted homicide abstract we propose in this paper to establish the relationship between homicides and attempted homicides by a non stationary time series analysis this analysis will be carried out by detrended fluctuation analysis dfa detrended cross correlation analysis dcca and dcca cross correlation coefficient d c c a n through this analysis we can identify a positive cross correlation between homicides and attempted homicides at the same time looked at from the point of view of autocorrelation dfa this analysis can be more informative depending on time scale for short scale days we cannot identify auto correlations on the scale of weeks dfa presents anti persistent behavior and for long time scales n 90 days dfa presents a persistent behavior finally the application of this new type of statistical analysis proved to be efficient and in this sense this paper can contribute to a more accurate descriptive statistics of crime

a quadratic time algorithm for the minmax length triangulation it is shown that a triangulation of a set of n points in the plane that minimizes the maximum edge length can be computed in time o n 2 the algorithm is reasonably easy to implement and is based on the theorem that there is a triangulation with minmax edge length that contains the relative neighborhood graph of the points as a subgraph with minor modifications the algorithm works for arbitrary normed metrics

research on the fractal structure in the chinese stock market abstract applying fractal theory this paper probes and discusses self similarity and scale invariance of the chinese stock market it analyses three kinds of scale indexes i e autocorrelation index hurst index and the scale index on the basis of detrended fluctuation analysis dfa algorithm and promotes dfa into a recursive algorithm using the three kinds of scale indexes we conduct empirical research on the chinese shanghai and shenzhen stock markets the results indicate that the rate of returns of the two stock markets does not obey the normal distribution a correlation exists between the stock price indexes over time scales the stock price indexes exhibit fractal time series it indicates that the policy guide hidden at the back influences the characteristic of the chinese stock market

forbidden patterns permutation entropy and stock market inefficiency abstract in this paper we introduce two new quantifiers for the stock market inefficiency the number of forbidden patterns and the normalized permutation entropy they are model independent measures thus they have more general applicability we find robust evidence that degree of market inefficiency is positively correlated with the number of forbidden patterns and negatively correlated with the permutation entropy our empirical results suggest that these two physical tools are useful to discriminate the stage of stock market development and can be easily implemented

approximation schemes for covering and packing problems in image processing and vlsi a unified and powerful approach is presented for devising polynomial approximation schemes for many strongly np complete problems such schemes consist of families of approximation algorithms for each desired performance bound on the relative error e o with running time that is polynomial when e is fixed though the polynomiality of these algorithms depends on the degree of approximation e being fixed they cannot be improved owing to a negative result stating that there are no fully polynomial approximation schemes for strongly np complete problems unless np p the unified technique that is introduced here referred to as the shifting strategy is applicable to numerous geometric covering and packing problems the method of using the technique and how it varies with problem parameters are illustrated a similar technique independently devised by b s baker was shown to be applicable for covering and packing problems on planar graphs

oscillation criteria for linear matrix hamiltonian systems abstract in this paper we present oscillation criteria in terms of the coefficient functions for the matrix linear hamiltonian system u a x u b x v v c x u a x v under the hypothesis h a x b x b x 0 and c x c x are n n matrices of real valued continuous functions on the interval i a a these criteria generalize earlier results due to etgen and pawlowski 1976 erbe qingkai kong and shigui ruan 1993 and fanwei meng jizhong wang and zhaowen zheng 1998 for the system p x u q x u 0 or its special cases

multifractal detrended cross correlation analysis of sunspot numbers and river flow fluctuations abstract we use the detrended cross correlation analysis dcca to investigate the influence of sun activity represented by sunspot numbers on one of the climate indicators specifically rivers represented by river flow fluctuation for daugava holston nolichucky and french broad rivers the multifractal detrended cross correlation analysis mf dxa shows that there exist some crossovers in the cross correlation fluctuation function versus time scale of the river flow and sunspot series one of these crossovers corresponds to the well known cycle of solar activity demonstrating a universal property of the mentioned rivers the scaling exponent given by dcca for original series at intermediate time scale 12 24 s 130 months is 1 17 0 04 which is almost similar for all underlying rivers at 1 confidence interval showing the second universal behavior of river runoffs to remove the sinusoidal trends embedded in data sets we apply the singular value decomposition svd method our results show that there exists a long range cross correlation between the sunspot numbers and the underlying streamflow records the magnitude of the scaling exponent and the corresponding cross correlation exponent are 0 76 0 85 and 0 30 0 48 respectively different values for scaling and cross correlation exponents may be related to local and external factors such as topography drainage network morphology human activity and so on multifractal cross correlation analysis demonstrates that all underlying fluctuations have almost weak multifractal nature which is also a universal property for data series in addition the empirical relation between scaling exponent derived by dcca and detrended fluctuation analysis dfa h sun h river 2 is confirmed

weighted means and oscillation conditions for second order matrix differential equations on considere le systeme d equations differentielles d ordre 2 p t y t q t y t 0 pour t 0 ou p et q sont des matrices symetriques n n reelles sur 0 et y un vecteur colonne on suppose que p t est definie positive pour tout t tel que p t 1 on donne des conditions d oscillations

oscillation theorems for self adjoint matrix hamiltonian systems by using generalized riccati technique linear positive functional and the weighted averages technique some new oscillation criteria for self adjoint hamiltonian matrix system e u x a x u x b x v x v x c x u x a x v x are obtained these results generalize and improve earlier results due to kumari and umamaheswaram 9 for e parhi and praharaj 12 etgen and pawlowski 6 for p x u x q x u x 0 or its special cases and coles 3 for the scalar system y x q x y x 0

interval oscillation criteria for matrix differential systems with damping abstract this paper concerns the oscillation of solutions to leighton type for the matrix differential system with damping p t y r t y q t y 0 under the hypothesis p t p t 0 q t q t and r t r t are n n matrices of real valued continuous functions on the interval t 0

a comment on measuring the hurst exponent of financial time series abstract a fundamental hypothesis of quantitative finance is that stock price variations are independent and can be modeled using brownian motion in recent years it was proposed to use rescaled range analysis and its characteristic value the hurst exponent to test for independence in financial time series theoretically independent time series should be characterized by a hurst exponent of 1 2 however finite brownian motion data sets will always give a value of the hurst exponent larger than 1 2 and without an appropriate statistical test such a value can mistakenly be interpreted as evidence of long term memory we obtain a more precise statistical significance test for the hurst exponent and apply it to real financial data sets our empirical analysis shows no long term memory in some financial returns suggesting that brownian motion cannot be rejected as a model for price dynamics

statistical properties of the volatility of price fluctuations we study the statistical properties of volatility measured by locally averaging over a time window t the absolute value of price changes over a short time interval ensuremath delta t we analyze the s 500 stock index for the 13 year period jan 1984 to dec 1996 we find that the cumulative distribution of the volatility is consistent with a power law asymptotic behavior characterized by an exponent ensuremath mu ensuremath approx 3 similar to what is found for the distribution of price changes the volatility distribution retains the same functional form for a range of values of t further we study the volatility correlations by using the power spectrum analysis both methods support a power law decay of the correlation function and give consistent estimates of the relevant scaling exponents also both methods show the presence of a crossover at approximately 1 5 days in addition we extend these results to the volatility of individual companies by analyzing a data base comprising all trades for the largest 500 u s companies over the two year period jan 1994 to dec 1995

universal and nonuniversal properties of cross correlations in financial time series we use methods of random matrix theory to analyze the cross correlation matrix c of stock price changes of the largest 1000 u s companies for the 2 year period 1994 1995 we find that the statistics of most of the eigenvalues in the spectrum of c agree with the predictions of random matrix theory but there are deviations for a few of the largest eigenvalues we find that c has the universal properties of the gaussian orthogonal ensemble of random matrices furthermore we analyze the eigenvectors of c through their inverse participation ratio and find eigenvectors with large ratios at both edges of the eigenvalue spectrum a situation reminiscent of localization theory results

economic fluctuations and statistical physics quantifying extremely rare and less rare events in finance one challenge of economics is that the systems treated by these sciences have no perfect metronome in time and no perfect spatial architecture crystalline or otherwise nonetheless as if by magic out of nothing but randomness one finds remarkably fine tuned processes in time we present an overview of recent research joining practitioners of economic theory and statistical physics to try to better understand puzzles regarding economic fluctuations one of these puzzles is how to describe outliers phenomena that lie outside of patterns of statistical regularity we review evidence consistent with the possibility that such outliers may not exist this possibility is supported by recent analysis of databases containing information about each trade of every stock r 2007 elsevier b v all rights reserved

oscillation of self adjoint linear matrix hamiltonian systems abstract by means of monotone functionals defined on suitable matrix spaces and new methods oscillation criteria for self adjoint linear hamiltonian matrix system of the form x x a x x x b x y x y x c x x x a x y x are obtained there results are sharper than some previous results even for self adjoint second order matrix differential systems in particular our theorems are generalizations and improvements of many existing results including those obtained by sun j math anal appl 279 2003 651 658

a stochastic model of human gait dynamics abstract we present a stochastic model of gait rhythm dynamics based on transitions between different neural centers that reproduces distinctive statistical properties of normal human walking by tuning one model parameter the transition hopping range the model can describe alterations in gait dynamics from childhood to adulthood including a decrease in the correlation and volatility exponents with maturation the model also generates time series with multifractal spectra whose broadness depends only on this parameter moreover we find that the volatility exponent increases monotonically as a function of the width of the multifractal spectrum suggesting the possibility of a change in multifractality with maturation

time varying hurst exponent for us stock markets abstract in this work the dynamical behavior of the us stock markets is characterized on the basis of the temporal variations of the hurst exponent estimated with detrended fluctuation analysis dfa over moving windows for the historical dow jones 1928 2007 and the s p 500 1950 2007 daily indices according to the results drawn i the hurst exponent displays an erratic dynamics with some episodes alternating low and high persistent behavior ii the major breakthrough of the long term trend of the scaling behavior occurred in 1972 at the end of the bretton woods system when the hurst exponent shifted form a positive to a negative long term trend other effects such as the 1987 crisis and the emergence of anti correlated behavior in the recent two years are also discussed

long memory volatility in derivative hedging abstract the aim of this work is to take into account the effects of long memory in volatility on derivative hedging this idea is an extension of the work by fedotov and tan stochastic long memory process in option pricing int j theor appl finance 8 2005 381 392 where they incorporate long memory stochastic volatility in option pricing and derive pricing bands for option values the starting point is the stochastic black scholes hedging strategy which involves volatility with a long range dependence the stochastic hedging strategy is the sum of its deterministic term that is classical black scholes hedging strategy with a constant volatility and a random deviation term which describes the risk arising from the random volatility using the fact that stock price and volatility fluctuate on different time scales we derive an asymptotic equation for this deviation in terms of the green s function and the fractional brownian motion the solution to this equation allows us to find hedging confidence intervals

the roles of mean residence time on herd behavior in a financial market abstract we investigate the herd behavior of stock prices in a finance system with the heston model based on parameter estimation of the heston model obtained by minimizing the mean square deviation between the theoretical and empirical return distributions we simulate mean residence time of positive return mrtpr plots of mrtpr against the amplitude or mean reversion of volatility demonstrate a phenomenon of herd behavior for a positive cross correlation between noise sources of the heston model also for a negative cross correlation a phenomenon of herd behavior is observed in plots of mrtpr against the long run variance by increasing amplitude or mean reversion of volatility

evidence of increment of efficiency of the mexican stock market through the analysis of its variations abstract it is well known that there exist statistical and structural differences between the stock markets of developed and emerging countries in this work and in order to find out if the efficiency of the mexican stock market has been changing over time we have performed and compared several analyses of the variations of the mexican stock market index ipc and dow jones industrial average index djia for different periods of their historical daily data we have analyzed the returns autocorrelation function acf and used detrended fluctuation analysis dfa to study returns variations we also analyze the volatility mean value and standard deviation of both markets and compare their evolution we conclude from the overall result of these studies that they show compelling evidence of the increment of efficiency of the mexican stock market over time the data samples analyzed here correspond to daily values of the ipc and djia for the period 10 30 1978 02 28 2006

approximating uniform triangular meshes in polygons we consider the problem of triangulating a convex polygon using n steiner points under the following optimality criteria 1 minimizing the overall edge length ratio 2 minimizing the maximum edge length and 3 minimizing the maximum triangle perimeter we establish a relation of these problems to a certain extreme packing problem based on this relationship we develop a heuristic producing constant approximations for all the optimality criteria above provided n is chosen sufficiently large that is the produced triangular mesh is uniform in these respects the method is easy to implement and runs in o n2log n time and o n space the observed runtime is much less moreover for criterion 1 the method works within the same complexity and approximation bounds for arbitrary polygons with possible holes and for criteria 2 and 3 it does so for a large subclass

clustering to minimize the maximum intercluster distance the problem of clustering a set of points so as to minimize the maximum intercluster distance is studied an o kn approximation algorithm where n is the number of points and k is the number of clusters that guarantees solutions with an objective function value within two times the optimal solution value is presented this approximation algorithm succeeds as long as the set of points satisfies the triangular inequality we also show that our approximation algorithm is best possible with respect to the approximation bound if pz np

minority games with score dependent and agent dependent payoffs score dependent and agent dependent payoffs of the strategies are introduced into the standard minority game the intrinsic periodicity is consequently removed and the stylized facts arise such as long range volatility correlations and fat tails in the distribution of the returns the agent dependence of the payoffs is essential in producing the long range volatility correlations the new payoffs lead to a better performance in the dynamic behavior nonlocal in time and can coexist with the inactive strategy we also observe that the standard deviation ensuremath sigma 2 n is significantly reduced thus the efficiency of the system is distinctly improved based on this observation we give a qualitative explanation for the long range volatility correlations

time evolution of stochastic processes with correlations in the variance stability in power law tails of distributions abstract we model the time series of the s p500 index by a combined process the ar garch process where ar denotes the autoregressive process which we use to account for the short range correlations in the index changes and garch denotes the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic process which takes into account the long range correlations in the variance we study the ar garch process with an initial distribution of truncated levy form we find that this process generates a new probability distribution with a crossover from a levy stable power law to a power law with an exponent outside the levy range beyond the truncation cutoff we analyze the sum of n variables of the ar garch process and find that due to the correlations the ar garch process generates a probability distribution which exhibits stable behavior in the tails for a broad range of values n a feature which is observed in the probability distribution of the s p500 index we find that this power law stability depends on the characteristic scale in the correlations we also find that inclusion of short range correlations through the ar process is needed to obtain convergence to a limiting gaussian distribution for large n as observed in the data

understanding the determinants of volatility clustering in terms of stationary markovian processes abstract volatility is a key variable in the modeling of financial markets the most striking feature of volatility is that it is a long range correlated stochastic variable i e its autocorrelation function decays like a power law for large time lags in the present work we investigate the determinants of such feature starting from the empirical observation that the exponent of a certain stock s volatility is a linear function of the average correlation of such stock s volatility with all other volatilities we propose a simple approach consisting in diagonalizing the cross correlation matrix of volatilities and investigating whether or not the diagonalized volatilities still keep some of the original volatility stylized facts as a result the diagonalized volatilities result to share with the original volatilities either the power law decay of the probability density function and the power law decay of the autocorrelation function this would indicate that volatility clustering is already present in the diagonalized un correlated volatilities we therefore present a parsimonious univariate model based on a non linear langevin equation that well reproduces these two stylized facts of volatility the model helps us in understanding that the main source of volatility clustering once volatilities have been diagonalized is that the economic forces driving volatility can be modeled in terms of a smoluchowski potential with logarithmic tails

information flow between ibovespa and constituent companies abstract we study the direction of information flow between ibovespa index and its constituent companies using the transfer entropy method we find stronger information transfer from individual stocks towards the composite index than in the opposite direction our results differ from those found for developed market where market index was identified as driving force indicating that the role of index increases with the maturity of the market

autocorrelation type timescale and statistical property in financial time series abstract earlier studies have documented that three types of autocorrelations exist in financial time series sign volatility and return autocorrelation in this paper we examine how each type of the above autocorrelations affects the statistical properties of financial time series and its role in maintaining such statistical properties using three different shuffling series that correspondingly destroy each type of autocorrelation upon different timescales we find that 1 the statistical properties of the shuffling series significantly vary from the original ones 2 volatility and return autocorrelations show greater impacts than sign autocorrelation 3 the effects on the statistical properties are intensified as time scale expands 4 the nonlinear component of autocorrelation is the major drive of the effect

correlation and network analysis of global financial indices random matrix theory rmt and network methods are applied to investigate the correlation and network properties of 20 financial indices the results are compared before and during the financial crisis of 2008 in the rmt method the components of eigenvectors corresponding to the second largest eigenvalue form two clusters of indices in the positive and negative directions the components of these two clusters switch in opposite directions during the crisis the network analysis uses the fruchterman reingold layout to find clusters in the network of indices at different thresholds at a threshold of 0 6 before the crisis financial indices corresponding to the americas europe and asia pacific form separate clusters on the other hand during the crisis at the same threshold the american and european indices combine together to form a strongly linked cluster while the asia pacific indices form a separate weakly linked cluster if the value of the threshold is further increased to 0 9 then the european indices france germany and the united kingdom are found to be the most tightly linked indices the structure of the minimum spanning tree of financial indices is more starlike before the crisis and it changes to become more chainlike during the crisis the average linkage hierarchical clustering algorithm is used to find a clearer cluster structure in the network of financial indices the cophenetic correlation coefficients are calculated and found to increase significantly which indicates that the hierarchy increases during the financial crisis these results show that there is substantial change in the structure of the organization of financial indices during a financial crisis

distribution of natural trends in long term correlated records a scaling approach we estimate the exceedance probability w x ensuremath alpha l that in a long term correlated gaussian distributed sub record of length l characterized by a fluctuation exponent ensuremath alpha between 0 5 and 1 5 a relative increase ensuremath delta ensuremath sigma t of size larger than x occurs where ensuremath delta is the total observed increase measured by linear regression and ensuremath sigma t is the standard deviation around the regression line we consider l between 500 and 2000 which is the typical length scale of monthly local and reconstructed annual global temperature records we use scaling theory to obtain an analytical expression for w x ensuremath alpha l from this expression we can determine analytically for a given confidence probability q the boundaries ifmmode pm else textpm fi x q ensuremath alpha l of the confidence interval in the presence of an external linear trend the total observed increase is the sum of the natural and the external increase an observed relative increase ensuremath delta ensuremath sigma t is considered unnatural when it is above x q ensuremath alpha l in this case the size of the external relative increase is bounded by ensuremath delta ensuremath sigma t ifmmode pm else textpm fi x q ensuremath alpha l we apply this approach to various global and local climate data and discuss the different results for the significance of the observed trends

riccati techniques and variational principles in oscillation theory for linear systems on etablit des conditions suffisantes pour que toutes les solutions soient oscillatoires on utilise les techniques de riccati et les principes variationnels

volatility cluster and herding stock markets can be characterized by fat tails in the volatility distribution clustering of volatilities and slow decay of their time correlations for an explanation models with several mechanisms and consequently many parameters as the lux marchesi model have been used we show that a simple herding model with only four parameters leads to a quantitative description of the data as a new type of data we describe the volatility cluster by the waiting time distribution which can be used successfully to distinguish between different models

riccati techniques and oscillation for self adjoint matrix hamiltonian systems the purpose of this paper is to develop a generalized matrix riccati technique for the self adjoint matrix hamiltonian system u a x u b x v v c x u a x v together with the integral averaging technique and monotone functionals new oscillation and interval oscillation criteria are established for the system these criteria extend improve complement a number of existing results and handle some cases not covered by known criteria in particular two interesting examples are included to illustrate the versatility of our results

oscillation criteria for second order linear differential equations abstract some oscillation criteria are given for the second order linear differential equation r t u t c t u t 0 where r t c 1 t 0 0 and c t c t 0 r these results improve oscillation criteria of wintner hartman kamenev yan and philos by using a generalized riccati transformation t a t r t u t u t f t where f c 1 is a given function on t 0 and a t exp 2 t f s ds

scaling behaviors in differently developed markets scaling properties of four di erent stock market indices are studied in terms of a generalized hurst exponent approach we nd that the deviations from pure brownian motion behavior are associated with the degrees of development of the markets and we observe strong di erentiations in the scaling properties of markets at di erent development stage c

criticality and phase transition in stock price fluctuations we analyze the behavior of the u s s p 500 index from 1984 to 1995 and characterize the non gaussian probability density functions pdf of the log returns the temporal dependence of fat tails in the pdf of a ten minute log return shows a gradual systematic increase in the probability of the appearance of large increments on approaching black monday in october 1987 reminiscent of parameter tuning towards criticality on the occurrence of the black monday crash this culminates in an abrupt transition of the scale dependence of the non gaussian pdf towards scale invariance characteristic of critical behavior these facts suggest the need for revisiting the turbulent cascade paradigm recently proposed for modeling the underlying dynamics of the financial index to account for time varying phase transitionlike and scale invariant critical like behavior

quantifying economic fluctuations abstract this manuscript is a brief summary of a talk designed to address the question of whether two of the pillars of the field of phase transitions and critical phenomena scale invariance and universality can be useful in guiding research on interpreting empirical data on economic fluctuations using this conceptual framework as a guide we empirically quantify the relation between trading activity measured by the number of transactions n and the price change g t for a given stock over a time interval t t t we relate the time dependent standard deviation of price changes volatility to two microscopic quantities the number of transactions n t in t and the variance w2 t of the price changes for all transactions in t we find that the long ranged volatility correlations are largely due to those of n we then argue that the tail exponent of the distribution of n is insufficient to account for the tail exponent of p g x since n and w display only weak inter dependency our results show that the fat tails of the distribution p g x arises from w finally we review recent work on quantifying collective behavior among stocks by applying the conceptual framework of random matrix theory rmt rmt makes predictions for universal properties that do not depend on the interactions between the elements comprising the system and deviations from rmt provide clues regarding system specific properties we compare the statistics of the cross correlation matrix c whose elements cij are the correlation coefficients of price fluctuations of stock i and j against a random matrix having the same symmetry properties it is found that rmt methods can distinguish random and non random parts of c the non random part of c which deviates from rmt results provides information regarding genuine collective behavior among stocks we also discuss results that are reminiscent of phase transitions in spin systems where the divergent behavior of the response function at the critical point zero magnetic field leads to large fluctuations and we discuss a curious symmetry breaking a feature qualitatively identical to the behavior of the probability density of the magnetization for fixed values of the inverse temperature

oscillation criteria for second order linear matrix differential systems with damping using a generalization of sturm s comparison theorem some new oscillation criteria are established for the matrix differential system with damping p t y r t y q t y 0 under the hypothesis p t p t 0 q t q t y t are nxn matrices of real valued continuous functions on the interval t 0 and r t r t c 1 t 0 r n 2 our results are sharper than some previous results

oscillation theorems for linear matrix hamiltonian systems using a matrix linear transformation which preserves oscillatory property some new oscillation criteria for the following linear matrix hamiltonian system u a t t i u b t v v c t u t i a t v t t 0 are obtained which improve and generalize some recent results in literature

on kamenev type oscillation theorems for second order differential equations with damping abstract oscillation criteria for the nonlinear second order ordinary differential equation with damping x p t x f x 0 are given the results are extensions of integral averaging technique of kamenev and include earlier results of yeh yan and chen

statistical properties of trading volume of chinese stocks abstract the cumulative distribution of trading volume is investigated for chinese stocks different from the power law scaling of mature markets the distribution is well fitted by a stretched exponential function f x e x with the autocorrelation function and the detrended fluctuation analysis the long range autocorrelation of trading volume is revealed the conditional dependence of volume on volatility and the volume volatility cross correlation are studied and a positive long range correlation between volume and volatility is observed

multifractal geometry in stock market time series it has been recently noticed that time series of returns in stock markets are of multifractal multiscaling character in that context multifractality has been always evidenced by its statistical signature i e the scaling exponents associated to a related variable however a direct geometrical framework much more revealing about the underlying dynamics is possible in this paper we present the techniques allowing the multifractal decomposition we will show that there exists a particular fractal component the most singular manifold msm which contains the relevant information about the dynamics of the series it is possible to reconstruct the series at a given precision from the msm we analyze the dynamics of the msm which shows revealing features about the evolution of this type of series