inversion for seismic slip rate history and distribution with stabilizing constraints application to the 1986 andreanof islands earthquake we develop and present a method of inverting seismograms including their absolute amplitudes to obtain the complete seismic slip time history and distribution using the method of linear programming a rectangular fault is discretized into cells and the source duration into time steps the inversion for the slip rate distribution on the fault as a function of time reduces to the solution of a system of linear equations the influence on the solution of constraining different source parameters such as the sign of the slip rate and the seismic moment is investigated it is found that the constraint of positiveness of slip rate and the constraint that the seismic moment determined from the solution should be close to that obtained from the centroid moment tensor cmt solution are very strong constraints and are essential to obtaining a physically reasonable solution since the inverse problem is unstable instead of presenting only one particular solution we examine several solutions equally well fitting the data for all practical purposes we find that when both constraints are applied the solution becomes quite stable the method is applied to a data set consisting of the vertical component of available digitally recorded teleseismic p waves at stations within a chosen distance window for the 1986 andreanof islands earthquake mw 8 0 the preferred solution is the one in which the slip rate is constrained to be positive and the moment is set to the cmt value the average rupture speed in the 90 km segment to the east of the hypocenter was 3 2 km s and in the 190 km section to the west was 2 km s the maximum slip in the area of large moment release to the west was 5 m and the maximum slip rate which occurs in the same place as the maximum slip was 6 5 m s the slip distribution on the fault shows a corrugated pattern with the long axis in the direction of the plate convergence rather than normal to the arc which was the slip vector direction for the earthquake with most of the slip occurring pn a region of the fault to the west of the rupture nucleation zone this region continued to slip for about 55 s the total source duration being about 80 s the results of this analysis suggest that the long term motion on this portion of the aleutian arc is indeed in the direction of plate convergence

the 2006 2007 kuril islands great earthquake sequence the southwestern half of a 500 km long seismic gap in the central kuril island arc subduction zone experienced two great earthquakes with extensive preshock and aftershock sequences in late 2006 to early 2007 the nature of seismic coupling in the gap had been uncertain due to the limited historical record of prior large events and the presence of distinctive upper plate trench and outer rise structures relative to adjacent regions along the arc that have experienced repeated great interplate earthquakes in the last few centuries the intraplate region seaward of the seismic gap had several shallow compressional events during the preceding decades notably an m s 7 2 event on 16 march 1963 leading to speculation that the interplate fault was seismically coupled this issue was partly resolved by failure of the shallow portion of the interplate megathrust in an m w 8 3 thrust event on 15 november 2006 this event ruptured 250 km along the seismic gap just northeast of the great 1963 kuril island m w 8 5 earthquake rupture zone within minutes of the thrust event intense earthquake activity commenced beneath the outer wall of the trench seaward of the interplate rupture with the larger events having normal faulting mechanisms an unusual double band of interplate and intraplate aftershocks developed on 13 january 2007 an m w 8 1 extensional earthquake ruptured within the pacific plate beneath the seaward edge of the kuril trench this event is the third largest normal faulting earthquake seaward of a subduction zone on record and its rupture zone extended to at least 33 km depth and paralleled most of the length of the 2006 rupture the 13 january 2007 event produced stronger shaking in japan than the larger thrust event as a consequence of higher short period energy radiation from the source the great event aftershock sequences were dominated by the expected faulting geometries thrust faulting for the 2006 rupture zone and normal faulting for the 2007 rupture zone a large intraplate compressional event occurred on 15 january 2009 m w 7 4 near 45 km depth below the rupture zone of the 2007 event and in the vicinity of the 16 march 1963 compressional event the fault geometry rupture process and slip distributions of the two great events are estimated using very broadband teleseismic body and surface wave observations the occurrence of the thrust event in the shallowest portion of the interplate fault in a region with a paucity of large thrust events at greater depths suggests that the event removed most of the slip deficit on this portion of the interplate fault this great earthquake doublet demonstrates the heightened seismic hazard posed by induced intraplate faulting following large interplate thrust events future seismic failure of the remainder of the seismic gap appears viable with the northeastern region that has also experienced compressional activity seaward of the megathrust warranting particular attention

seismotectonics at the trench trench trench triple junction off central honshu we study earthquakes in and near the ttt type triple junction off boso peninsula central honshu to elucidate the plate interaction in this area the pacific north america northeast japan and philippine sea plates meet at the junction of the japan and izu bonin trenches and the sagami trough we determine focal mechanisms using wwssn data we also determine accurate focal depths by modeling body waves there is no serious trade off between focal depth and source time function for the events treated in this study

asperities and barriers on the seismogenic zone in north chile state of the art after the 2007 mw 7 7 tocopilla earthquake inferred by gps and insar data the mw 7 7 2007 november 14 earthquake had an epicentre located close to the city of tocopilla at the southern end of a known seismic gap in north chile through modelling of global positioning system gps and radar interferometry insar data we show that this event ruptured the deeper part of the seismogenic interface 30 50 km and did not reach the surface the earthquake initiated at the hypocentre and was arrested 150 km south beneath the mejillones peninsula an area already identified as an important structural barrier between two segments of the peru chile subduction zone our preferred models for the tocopilla main shock show slip concentrated in two main asperities consistent with previous inversions of seismological data slip appears to have propagated towards relatively shallow depths at its southern extremity under the mejillones peninsula our analysis of post seismic deformation suggests that small but still significant post seismic slip occurred within the first 10 d after the main shock and that it was mostly concentrated at the southern end of the rupture the post seismic deformation occurring in this period represents 12 19 per cent of the coseismic deformation of which 30 55 per cent has been released aseismically post seismic slip appears to concentrate within regions that exhibit low coseismic slip suggesting that the afterslip distribution during the first month of the post seismic interval complements the coseismic slip the 2007 tocopilla earthquake released only 2 5 per cent of the moment deficit accumulated on the interface during the past 130 yr and may be regarded as a possible precursor of a larger subduction earthquake rupturing partially or completely the 500 km long north chile seismic gap

relations among subduction parameters clues to the dynamics of the subduction process are found in the many measurable parameters of modern subduction zones based on a critical appraisal of the geophysical and geological literature 26 parameters are estimated for each of 39 modern subduction zones to isolate causal relationships among these parameters multivariate analysis is applied to this data set this analysis yields empirical quantitative relations that predict strain regime and strike slip faulting in the overriding plate maximum earthquake magnitude benioff zone length slab dip arc trench gap and maximum trench depth excellent correlation is found between length of the benioff zone and the product of convergence rate and age of the downgoing slab this relationship is consistent with the conductive heating model of molnar et al 1979 if the model is modified in one respect the rate of heating of the slab is not constant it is substantially slower during passage of the slab beneath the accretionary prism and overriding plate the structural style in the overriding plate is determined by its stress state though the stress state of overriding plates cannot be quantified one can classify each individual subduction zone into one of seven semiquantitative strain classes that form a continuum from strongly extensional class 1 back arc spreading to strongly compressional class 7 active folding and thrusting this analysis indicates that strain class is probably determined by a linear combination of convergence rate slab age and shallow slab dip interplate coupling controlled by convergence rate and slab age is an important control on strain regime and the primary control on earthquake magnitude arc parallel strike slip faulting is a common feature of convergent margins forming a forearc sliver between the strike slip fault and trench optimum conditions for the development of forearc slivers are oblique convergence a compressional environment and a continental overriding plate the primary factor controlling presence of strike slip faulting is coupling strongly oblique convergence is not required the rate of strike slip faulting is affected by both convergence obliquity and convergence rate maximum trench depth is a response to flexure of the underthrusting plate the amount of flexural deflection at the trench depends on the vertical component of slab pull force which is very sensitive to slab age and shallow slab dip shallow slab dip conforms to the cross sectional shape of the overriding plate which is controlled by width of the accretionary prism and duration of subduction deep slab dip is affected by the mantle trajectory established at shallow depth but may be modified by mantle flow much of the structural complexity of convergent margins is probably attributable to terrane juxtaposition associated with temporal changes in both forearc strike slip faulting and strain regime empirical equations relating subduction parameters can provide both a focus for future theoretical studies and a conceptual and kinematic link between plate tectonics and the geology of subduction zones

three dimensional elastic dislocation modeling of the postseismic response to the 1964 alaska earthquake 1 gps velocity observations from the kenai peninsula and kodiak island alaska display a pattern of spatial variability suggesting the presence of multiple active processes on the underlying pacific north american plate interface velocities of sites on the eastern kenai peninsula and kodiak island are consistent with elastic strain accumulation at the plate interface whereas velocities of sites on the western kenai peninsula and cook inlet are oriented in the opposite direction and suggest an ongoing postseismic response to the 1964 alaska earthquake we can reproduce the observed velocities using a three dimensional elastic dislocation model to estimate the variation in coupling between the pacific and north american plates two different inversion schemes are examined to check the robustness of the results we find that the gps data can be satisfied by the presence of a locked area near southwest prince william sound a locked area near southwest kodiak island and an area of postseismic reverse slip beneath and north of the western kenai peninsula the shallow plate interface trenchward of the western kenai peninsula does not appear to be locked the locked areas correspond to the prince william sound and kodiak island asperities that ruptured in 1964 and the area of postseismic slip lies downdip of the 1964 rupture area the correspondence between the present shallow coupling distribution and the 1964 slip distribution suggests that the locked regions repeat from one earthquake cycle to another

shumagin seismic gap alaska peninsula history of great earthquakes tectonic setting and evidence for high seismic potential the shumagin seismic gap a segment of the plate boundary along the eastern aleutian arc has not ruptured during a great earthquake since at least 1899 1903 because at least 77 years have elapsed since the shumagin gap last ruptured in a great earthquake and repeat times for the 1938 rupture zone and part of the shumagin gap are estimated to be 50 to 90 years a high probability exists for a great earthquake to occur within the shumagin gap during the next one to two decades reconsideration of the rupture zones of the aleutian earthquakes of 1938 1946 and 1948 suggests that those events did not break the interplate boundary beneath the shumagin islands thus the shumagin seismic gap extends from the western end of the 1938 rupture zone to the eastern end of that of 1946 these boundaries also coincide with transverse structural features at least the eastern half of the shumagin gap broke in great earthquakes in 1788 and 1847 and possibly in 1898 1903 the shumagin gap is probably not the result of aseismic slip rather plate motion is accommodated there seismically and episodically and can be expected to produce large earthquakes in the future although there is no definitive evidence of long term precursors of a possible future earthquake several observations suggest that the shumagin gap is in an advanced stage of the earthquake cycle both teleseismic and local network data indicate a near absence of seismic activity m 2 above a depth of 30 km along the main thrust zone within the gap this is in strong contrast to adjacent portions of the arc where seismic activity is scattered across most of the main thrust zone two earthquakes with high stress drops 600 900 bars which occurred at the base of the main thrust zone may indicate the accumulation of a considerable amount of strain energy within the gap a possible seismic gap at the eastern end of the aftershock zone of the aleutian earthquake of 1957 has been identified near unalaska island an earthquake that nucleates in the shumagin gap could also rupture the possible unalaska gap to the west the 1938 aftershock zone to the east or both with resultant magnitude up to mw 9 0 alternatively the shumagin gap alone or in one of the above combinations could rupture in a series of very large earthquakes instead of a single great shock past alaska aleutian earthquakes including those of 1788 1938 1946 1957 1964 and 1965 have generated very large tsunamis future large earthquakes in the shumagin islands region could generate wave heights of several tens of meters along shorelines near the rupture areas the shumagin gap is one of two major gaps along the united states portion of the alaska aleutian plate boundary and is one of the few areas in the united states where processes leading to a great earthquake are likely to be observed within a reasonable span of time

new insights into the mechanism of postseismic stress relaxation exemplified by the 23 june 2001 mw 8 4 earthquake in southern peru 1 the 2001 mw 8 4 southern peru subduction earthquake marked the beginning of a transient postseismic surface motion in direction of the coseismic displacement at the permanent gps station arequipa in general this motion is assigned to afterslip our hypothesis is that the observed transient signal can be explained by stress relaxation processes in the overriding plate we use a 2d finite element model incorporating non linear viscoelastic maxwell rheology our model results indicate that coseismically induced stresses are relieved by viscoelastic stress relaxation in the lower crust the trenchward directed creep motion is transferred to the upper crust due to elastic coupling leading there to an instantaneous relief of elastic stresses in contrast to the existing conceptual models for stress relaxation which incorporate shear stresses we conclude that tensional elastic stresses throughout the crust and upper mantle are the main driving forces for the transient gps signal

basin centered asperities in great subduction zone earthquakes a link between slip subsidence and subduction erosion 1 published areas of high coseismic slip or asperities for 29 of the largest circum pacific megathrust earthquakes are compared to forearc structure revealed by satellite free air gravity bathymetry and seismic profiling on average 71 of an earthquake s seismic moment and 79 of its asperity area occur beneath the prominent gravity low outlining the deep sea terrace 57 of an earthquake s asperity area on average occurs beneath the forearc basins that lie within the deep sea terrace in sw japan slip in the 1923 1944 1946 and 1968 earthquakes was largely centered beneath five forearc basins whose landward edge overlies the 350 c isotherm on the plate boundary the inferred downdip limit of the locked zone basin centered coseismic slip also occurred along the aleutian mexico peru and chile subduction zones but was ambiguous for the great 1964 alaska earthquake beneath intrabasin structural highs seismic slip tends to be lower possibly due to higher temperatures and fluid pressures kilometers of late cenozoic subsidence and crustal thinning above some of the source zones are indicated by seismic profiling and drilling and are thought to be caused by basal subduction erosion the deep sea terraces and basins may evolve not just by growth of the outer arc high but also by interseismic subsidence not recovered during earthquakes basin centered asperities could indicate a link between subsidence subduction erosion and seismogenesis whatever the cause forearc basins may be useful indicators of long term seismic moment release the source zone for cascadia s 1700 a d earthquake contains five large basin centered gravity lows that may indicate potential asperities at depth the gravity gradient marking the inferred downdip limit to large coseismic slip lies offshore except in northwestern washington where the low extends landward beneath the coast transverse gravity highs between the basins suggest that the margin is seismically segmented and could produce a variety of large earthquakes

interseismic coupling and asperity distribution along the kamchatka subduction zone 1 gps measurements of interseismic horizontal surface velocities reveal the degree of kinematic coupling of the plate boundary thrust along the kamchatka subduction zone from about 51 degrees to 57 degrees n latitude inversions for the distribution of aseismic slip rate along the similar to 15 degrees nw dipping underthrust suggest a nonslipping plate interface in southern kamchatka above similar to 50 km depth along the segment that ruptured in the m w 9 1952 earthquake north of similar to 53 degrees n the subduction interface experiences significant aseismic slip consistent with the lower seismic moment release in m 8 5 earthquakes along this portion of the subduction zone the gps velocities are consistent with a boundary element forward model in which historic earthquake rupture zones are represented as locked asperities surrounded by a zero shear stress subduction interface loaded by plate convergence models in which the complete rupture zones of historic earthquakes are considered locked greatly overpredict the degree of kinematic coupling reducing the area of the locked model asperities to the central 25 area of historic rupture zones fits the data well suggesting that large earthquakes involve small fully locked core asperities surrounded by conditionally stable portions of the plate interface areas of low aseismic slip rate appear to be roughly correlated with areas of low isostatic gravity anomalies over offshore forearc basins while less coupled portions of the kamchatka subduction zone coincide with high gravity anomalies offshore of two peninsulas possibly related to the subduction of the emperor meji seamount chain and the kruzenstern fracture zone

interplate coupling beneath ne japan inferred from three dimensional displacement field 1 the northeastern japan arc is located in a typical subduction zone and is a seismically active region where large interplate earthquakes have occurred repeatedly the nationwide gps network has made it possible to investigate the crustal deformation in unprecedented detail however vertical displacements are less accurate than the horizontal ones and have not been used to constrain interplate coupling models in this study gps carrier phase data are analyzed in order to estimate three components of site displacements the result indicates uplift along the japan sea coast and subsidence along the pacific ocean coast using the vertical site velocities together with the horizontal ones as the data for a geodetic inversion method a new model of interplate coupling is constructed to explain both the horizontal and vertical velocities for the interseismic period from 1997 to 2001 the model demonstrates strong coupling in the area off miyagi and in the area off aomori through the area off tokachi including the areas of asperities the downdip limit of the locked fault zone on the plate boundary has been estimated seismologically to be at a depth of 50 60 km in northeastern japan and the distribution of slip deficits derived in this study indicates that the transition zone extends down to a depth of about 100 km

ultralong period seismic study of the december 2004 indian ocean earthquake and implications for regional tectonics and the subduction process analysis of the earth s longest period normal modes shows that the december 2004 sumatra andaman earthquake was much larger mw 9 3 than ini tially inferred from surface wave data and involved slip on a much longer fault than initially inferred from body wave data the seismic moment and relative excitation of the normal modes indicate that the entire aftershock zone ruptured consistent with the large tsunami amplitudes in thailand sri lanka and india an apparent increase in seismic moment with period results from interference between parts of the fault the earthquake resulted from subduction of the indian plate beneath the burma microplate a sliver plate between the indian and sunda plates hence the rate and direction of convergence depends on the motion of the burma plate which is not well known convergence would be highly oblique if the rate of motion between burma and sunda is that inferred from spreading in the andaman sea and less if a slower rate is inferred from the sagaing fault the december earthquake was much larger than expected from a previously proposed relation based on the idea of seismic coupling in which such earthquakes occur only when young lithosphere subducts rapidly moreover a global reanalysis finds little support for this correlation hence we suspect that much of the apparent differences between subduction zones such as some trench segments but not others being prone to m w 8 5 events and hence oceanwide tsunamis may reflect the short earthquake history sampled this possi bility is supported by the variability in rupture mode at individual trench segments

full interseismic locking of the nankai and japan west kurile subduction zones an analysis of uniform elastic strain accumulation in japan constrained by permanent gps we analyze permanent global positioning system gps data obtained over japan between 1995 and 1997 to estimate the instantaneous interseismic coupling ratio of the seismogenic zones due to the subduction of the pacific and philippine sea plates below the japanese islands we first derive the gps strain rate fields that characterize the crustal deformation of southern and northern japan and invert them to determine the effective subduction velocity along the central nankai trough on one side and the japan west kurile trench on the other these reference free velocities are close to those predicted by plate motion models with respect to eurasia we conclude that the eurasian reference frame gives a good approximation to the subduction motion and that to first order both subduction zones were fully locked during the period of measurements we then test whether the coupling ratio shows local variations within the seismogenic zones to do this we divide the subduction interface into 35 km 30 km elements that we model by point source groups and we invert the gps velocity field referenced to eurasia to derive the coupling ratio between 0 and 1 on each fault element the results are coherent over the 3 years and confirm that both the central nankai and the japan west kurile seismogenic zones are homogeneously fully locked most of the coupling ratios are close to 1 and a few are close to 0 intermediate values are rare the zones of decoupling correspond either to strong postseismic afterslip associated with the 1994 sanriku oki interplate earthquake japan trench or to a small overestimation of the actual lower limit of the locked zone we conclude that within the resolution of the gps data and the model 1 partial coupling did not exist during these 3 years along the nankai and japan west kurile trenches 2 the small seismic coupling ratio previously derived from earthquakes analysis for the japan and kurile trenches may indicate that a significant part of the elastic energy is dissipated silently through slow earthquakes and postseismic afterslip and 3 the heterogeneous coseismic slip pattern observed for the large and great earthquakes that rupture both subduction zones is in great contrast to the homogeneous loading finally we discuss the nonelastic residual deformation within the frame of the long term deformation of the japanese islands

fault slip and seismic moment of the 1700 cascadia earthquake inferred from japanese tsunami descriptions 1 the 1700 cascadia earthquake attained moment magnitude 9 according to new estimates based on effects of its tsunami in japan computed coseismic seafloor deformation for hypothetical ruptures in cascadia and tsunami modeling in the pacific ocean reports of damage and flooding show that the 1700 cascadia tsunami reached 1 5 m heights at seven shoreline sites in japan three sets of estimated heights express uncertainty about location and depth of reported flooding landward decline in tsunami heights from shorelines and post 1700 land level changes we compare each set with tsunami heights computed from six cascadia sources each source is vertical seafloor displacement calculated with a three dimensional elastic dislocation model for three sources the rupture extends the 1100 km length of the subduction zone and differs in width and shallow dip for the other sources ruptures of ordinary width extend 360 670 km to compute tsunami waveforms we use a linear long wave approximation with a finite difference method and we employ modern bathymetry with nearshore grid spacing as small as 0 4 km the various combinations of japanese tsunami heights and cascadia sources give seismic moment of 1 9 1022 n m equivalent to moment magnitude 8 7 9 2 this range excludes several unquantified uncertainties the most likely earthquake of moment magnitude 9 0 has 19 m of coseismic slip on an offshore full slip zone 1100 km long with linearly decreasing slip on a downdip partial slip zone the shorter rupture models require up to 40 m offshore slip and predict land level changes inconsistent with coastal paleoseismological evidence

subduction zones an introduction to comparative subductology abstract the subduction model for trench arc back arc systems was deduced more or less as a logical consequence of sea floor spreading many features in these systems such as thrust type inter plate earthquakes and deep earthquakes along wadati benioff zones are readily explained by the subduction model but other features such as extensional spreading and high heat flow in back arc regions and arc volcanism are difficult to explain an approach to solve these problems may be to recognize the existence of the two basically different modes of subduction one chilean type causing a compressional stress regime in the arc and back arc regions the other mariana type causing a tensional stress regime implications of the two types of the mode of subduction for some tectonic problems such as vertical movement and sediment accretion at trenches are discussed with special reference to the results of recent dsdp active margin drilling in discussing the possible causes of the two modes it is suggested that the large scale thermal and stress regimes in the back arc areas may not be the direct products of simple subduction but of some additional factors involving much greater energy such as mantle flow associated with the motion of major plates finally the possible great importance of various types of collision accretion and erosion at subduction zones is emphasized

interplate coupling and transient slip along the subduction interface beneath oaxaca mexico summary we describe and model gps measurements of surface deformation from the oaxaca segment of the mexican subduction zone to characterize interseismic strain accumulation and episodic transient slip in this region and test seismologically based models of strain accumulation and release along subduction interfaces deformation measured from 2001 to 2007 within our dense 31 station gps array has consisted of 1 trench normal horizontal contraction at rates that decrease monotonically inland from the coast 2 rapid coastal subsidence that changes gradually to slow uplift at locations more than 100 km inland and 3 periods of transient slip that interrupt the otherwise steady deformation inverse modelling of transient station offsets in 2004 and 2006 indicates that transient slip along the subduction interface occurred downdip from the rupture limits of previous large earthquakes in this region in both 2004 and 2006 gps site velocities that are corrected for the effects of this transient slip vary significantly over distances of only tens of kilometres both along the coastline and inland implying that similar spatial variations occur in the degree of locking across the subduction interface deformation rates measured along the coast reach their maximum above the core of the rupture zone of the 1978 ms 7 8 shallow thrust earthquake and generally decrease outwards towards the edges of the rupture zone bounded value inverse modelling of the interseismic gps velocity field with a finite element mesh that simulates the study region indicates that much of the rupture zone of the 1978 shallow thrust earthquake is fully locked at the plate convergence rate but that this region is surrounded by weakly locked areas of the subduction interface which may slow or arrest the propagation of future earthquakes much of the deeper region of transient slip downdip from the seismogenic zone is also fully locked between the episodes of transient slip however the elastic energy that accumulated due to locking of this deeper transitional zone between 2002 and 2006 appears to have been mostly or completed released by the 2004 and early 2006 transient slip events the approximately balanced energy budget for the deeper zone of transient slip implies that this region is unlikely to contribute significant elastic energy to future earthquakes that originate along the seismogenic zone our results support a model in which seismic asperities coincide with regions of strong locking between earthquakes the potential elastic energy that has re accumulated since 1978 in the seismogenic zone is already sufficient to cause a repeat of the 1978 earthquake

low frequency source characteristics of the great 1960 chilean earthquake the low frequency nature of the great 1960 chilean earthquake the earth s largest recorded event is characterized and a source model composed of three events with a combined seismic moment of 5 5 1023 n m and a duration of 1500 s is presented the results show conclusively that large scale slip which is only observed at low frequencies preceded the main shock complex amplitude measurements of normal mode data in the band 1 0 5 0 mhz recorded at eight vertical component stations comprise the data set in this band the earthquake source is assumed to be described by a line source propagating at a constant rupture velocity the data set is the basis for a sequence of least squares inversions to determine the seismic moment rupture velocity spatial slip distribution and the temporal slip function the data are best explained by a source model that begins 1150 s before the main shock with an event of moment 1 9 1023 n m and rise time of 300 s a main shock with moment of 3 2 1023 n m and for which most of the low frequency energy was released beginning about 50 s after the short period origin time and an event 350 s later with moment of 0 4 1023 n m the uncertainty in the moment estimate of the great 1960 chilean earthquake is about 50 and is due primarily to the probable range of fault plane dip which is not well constrained at this time

shallow dynamic overshoot and energetic deep rupture in the 2011 mw 9 0 tohoku oki earthquake strong spatial variation of rupture characteristics in the moment magnitude mw 9 0 tohoku oki megathrust earthquake controlled both the strength of shaking and the size of the tsunami that followed finite source imaging reveals that the rupture consisted of a small initial phase deep rupture for up to 40 seconds extensive shallow rupture at 60 to 70 seconds and continuing deep rupture lasting more than 100 seconds a combination of a shallow dipping fault and a compliant hanging wall may have enabled large shallow slip near the trench normal faulting aftershocks in the area of high slip suggest dynamic overshoot on the fault despite prodigious total slip shallower parts of the rupture weakly radiated at high frequencies whereas deeper parts of the rupture radiated strongly at high frequencies

large earthquake triggering clustering and the synchronization of faults large earthquakes are sometimes observed to trigger other large earthquakes on nearby faults the magnitudes of the calculated coulomb stress transfers presumed to cause the triggering are 10 2 10 3 of the earthquake stress drops the earthquake stress drops and the triggering delay times are similarly small with respect to the natural recurrence time of the earthquakes this requires that both faults be simultaneously very close to the ends of their seismic cycles paleoseismological data show that for the same regions prior earthquakes have occurred in clusters of ruptures of several faults separated by long quiescent periods both observations suggest that synchronization is occurring between faults theory and observations indicate that synchronization can occur between nearby faults with positive stress coupling and intrinsic slip velocities within an entrainment threshold in the south iceland seismic zone the central nevada seismic belt and the eastern california shear zone several synchronous clusters that apparently act independently can be recognized this behavior is the 3d equivalent of the phase locking that results in the seismic cycle of individual faults being dominated by large characteristic earthquakes and for synchronization of fault segments along a given fault rupture patterns of repeated individual earthquakes or earthquake clusters are not identical in either the 2d or 3d cases the state of this system which exhibits strong indications of synchrony without exact repetition may be called fuzzy synchrony

fore arc motion and cocos ridge collision in central america 1 we present the first regional surface velocity field for central america showing crustal response to interaction of the cocos and caribbean plates elastic half space models for interseismic strain accumulation on the dipping subduction plate boundary fit the gps data well and show strain accumulation offshore and beneath the nicoya and osa peninsulas in costa rica but not in nicaragua since large subduction zone earthquakes occur in nicaragua we suggest that interseismic locking in nicaragua and some other parts of central america occurs but is mainly shallow 20 km depth too far offshore to be detected by our on land gps measurements our data also show significant trench parallel motion for most of the region generally interpreted as due to oblique convergence and strong mechanical coupling between subducting and overriding plates however trench parallel motion is also observed in central costa rica where plate convergence is normal to the trench and in the nicaraguan fore arc where trench parallel motion is fast up to 9 mm a 1 but mechanical coupling is low a finite element model of collision as opposed to subduction involving the aseismic cocos ridge also fits the gps surface velocity field most significantly reproducing the pattern of trench parallel motion we infer that buoyant thickened cns 2 cocos ridge crust resists normal subduction and instead acts as an indenter to the caribbean plate driving crustal shortening in southern costa rica and contributing to trench parallel fore arc motion in costa rica and perhaps nicaragua as a type of tectonic escape

phenomenology of deep slow earthquake family in southwest japan spatiotemporal characteristics and segmentation 1 the phenomenology of deep slow earthquakes including low frequency tremors very low frequency earthquakes and short term slow slip events on the subducting plate interface in southwest japan is investigated on the basis of their spatiotemporal characteristics the belt like distribution of tremors is divided into segments bounded by gaps the repetition of tremor episode depends on the magnitude of the episode which is defined by the number of detected tremors within each episode major tremor episodes with a large number of detected tremors recur at an interval of approximately 6 months accompanying the short term slow slip events in large segments in small segments tremor episodes with small numbers of tremors have recurrence intervals of a few months some of them occasionally accompany the slight ground tilting caused by a small size slow slip event even in the same segment there exist different recurrence intervals according to the magnitude of the tremor episode the migration pattern varies greatly in initiation termination direction and speed however the migration direction has a general tendency for each segment on both sides of the gap the tremor starts next to the gap and propagates to the other side assuming all tremor episodes are caused by slow slip events the equivalent moment and slip are estimated from the number of detected tremor counts and the area of each tremor episode the equivalent slip history estimated from all tremor episodes is almost constant in each segment this indicates that tremor activity is a good proxy for slow slips

the 1964 prince william sound earthquake joint inversion of tsunami and geodetic data the 1964 prince william sound alaska earthquake mw 9 2 ruptured a large area beneath the continental margin of alaska from prince william sound to kodiak island a joint inversion of tsunami waveforms and geodetic data consisting of vertical displacements and horizontal vectors gives a detailed slip distribution two areas of high slip correspond to seismologically determined areas of high moment release the prince william sound asperity with average slip of 18 m and the kodiak asperity with average slip of 10 m the average slip on the fault is 8 6 m and the seismic moment is estimated as 6 3 1022 n m or over 75 of the seismic moment determined from long period surface waves

global frequency of magnitude 9 earthquakes for decades seismologists have sought causal relationships between maximum earthquake sizes and other properties of subduction zones with the underlying notion that some subduction zones may never produce a magnitude 9 or larger event the 2004 andaman m w 9 2 earthquake called into question such ideas given multicentury return times of the greatest earthquakes ignorance of those return times and our very limited observation span i suggest that we cannot yet make such determinations present evidence cannot rule out that any subduction zone may produce a magnitude 9 or larger earthquake based on theoretical recurrence times i estimate that one to three m9 earthquakes should occur globally per century and the past half century with five m9 events reflects temporal clustering and not the long term average

high interseismic coupling of the alaska subduction zone sw of kodiak island inferred from gps data we use global positioning system gps measurements to make the first geodetic study of the semidi segment of the alaska aleutian subduction zone this segment which sustained an mw 8 2 earthquake in 1938 lies between kodiak island where the subduction interface appears to presently be fully locked and the shumagin islands segment where substantial aseismic slip occurs we invert the gps station velocity estimates using a nonlinear least squares algorithm to solve for the width of the locked zone the dip and the interseismic coupling of a model subduction interface the data are consistent with a shallow plate interface dipping 6 a locking depth of 23 km and high interseismic coupling of 80

seismic cycles along the aleutian arc analysis of seismicity from 1957 through 1991 we catalog and relocate aleutian arc seismicity between 1957 and 1991 two great earthquakes ruptured the same 250 km long portion of the central aleutian arc the 1957 aleutian islands earthquake and the 1986 andreanof islands earthquake because accurate estimates of the moment distribution of the 1957 earthquake are not available the spatial distribution of aftershocks for each of these events is compared and tested against models describing the modes of occurrence of great subduction zone earthquakes earthquake relocations are based on p wave arrival times published in the international seismological summary the bureau central international seismologique and the international seismological centre bulletins and include corrections for the near source velocity structure associated with the down going slab magnitude estimates are extracted from bulletins and prior to 1964 are estimated by us from microfilmed records our catalog is complete above magnitude 5 5 aftershocks associated with the 1957 and 1986 earthquakes appear to occur in different areas east of the main shock epicenters aftershock locations are anticorrelated west of the main shock epicenter aftershocks of the 1986 earthquake tended to concentrate along the updip edge of aftershock clusters associated with the 1957 earthquake if we assume aftershocks rim the distribution of seismic moment release associated with each event these observations imply that the moment distribution of the 1986 earthquake was different from that of the 1957 earthquake this suggests that we should use caution in identifying mechanically strong portions of a fault asperities by simply mapping the moment distribution of a single great earthquake a fundamental tenet of the asperity model that rupture always occurs on the strongest portions of the fault with weaker portions rupturing either aseismically or dynamically as a result of rupture on a strong fault patch may in the case of the central aleutian arc not be correct thus observing the moment distribution from a single great earthquake may tell us little about what the distribution of moment release will look like during the next earthquake

evidence for and implications of a bering plate based on geodetic measurements from the aleutians and western alaska 1 global positioning system gps measurements are used to examine the hypothesis of a clockwise rotating bering plate originally proposed on the basis of seismicity the bering plate encompasses the bering sea western alaska and the aleutian islands gps measurements from the bering plate s interior show south to southwest motions of 3 5 mm a where a is years we construct elastic dislocation models to determine the spatial distribution and intensity of locked patches on the aleutian subduction interface we use these to remove interseismic strain from the gps observation and determine an arc translation velocity for each region of the aleutians revealing south and southwest motions of 4 8 mm a we combine the arc translation rates with measurements from the bering plate s interior sites and estimate the euler pole for the bering plate relative to north america to be located at 42 5 n 121 3 e with an angular speed of 6 0 ma the clockwise rotation of the bering plate may cause left lateral faulting in interior alaska the bering plate s interaction with south central alaska may be responsible for the decreased slip rate on the western denali fault and for contraction across the central alaska range we analyze slip partitioning along the aleutian arc on the basis of both gps measurements and slip azimuths of thrust earthquakes and find a systematic discrepancy between plate convergence direction and slip azimuths we conclude that slip partitioning in the back arc only develops west of amchitka pass whereas slip partitioning in the fore arc is present throughout the arc

modeling earthquake cycles in the shumagin subduction segment alaska with seismic and geodetic constraints deformation associated with the earthquake cycle in the shumagin islands segment of the alaska aleutian subduction zone is analyzed with the use of a two dimensional finite element model the model consists of an oceanic plate dipping under an upper plate both of which respond elastically to stress fluctuations in the earthquake cycle and these are underlain by asthenospheric mantle and mantle wedge regions which respond viscoelastically it is tailored to the geometry of the shumagin islands region by using seismicity to define the position of the interplate interface and partially coupled region along it the model is preconditioned by forcing this interface to undergo periodically repeated slips up to and including the time of the may 31 1917 event ms 7 4 in that region with each chosen to be consistent with the moment and estimated rupture area of that event we investigated the dependence of model results for geodetic signals on the strength of seismic coupling between the plates and viscoelastic relaxation of deviatoric stresses in the mantle including in the mantle wedge close to the plate junction and along the aseismic downdip continuation of the thrust interface in models with significant relaxation in the wedge or downdip thrust zone results show that as the intraseismic stage matures there is a region of diminished compressional strain rates and even of locally extensional rates on the earth s surface above the downdip end of the seismically coupled zone based on the seismic estimates of the location of the coupled zone this region is in the area of the shumagin islands we find that if approximately 20 of the convergence takes place seismically compatible with the previous seismic history and if an extensive region of relaxed deviatoric stress is assumed to be present in the wedge and or along the downdip interface then deformations predicted by the model can be made consistent with the measured strain data from the shumagin islands geodetic network lisowski et al 1988 larson and lisowski 1994 as well as uplift and tilt data savage and plafker 1991 beavan 1992 our model simulations here suggest that the shumagin segment is capable of large earthquakes the hypothesis of totally aseismic subduction is not similarly consistent with all geodetic constraints

oblique plate convergence slip vectors and forearc deformation slip vectors from thrust earthquakes at subduction zones where convergence is oblique to the trench often point between the directions of relative plate convergence and normal to the trench axis suggesting that oblique convergence is taken up by partial decoupling decoupling means that a component of arc parallel motion of the leading edge of the upper plate results in less oblique thrusting at the trench partial decoupling is modeled by partitioning of oblique convergence into slip on thrust and strike slip faults that are parallel to the trench and to each other and starting with a force equilibrium condition a relationship between the obliquity and the earthquake slip vector orientation is derived assuming that either fault slips when shear stress on it reaches a yield stress oblique slip parallel to the plate vector should occur on the thrust fault when obliquity is smaller than a critical angle for obliquity at or greater than this angle the stress on the strike slip fault is large enough to start it slipping and when both faults are active the arc parallel motion of the forearc deflects the slip vector back toward the trench normal if we assume that continued slip on either fault occurs at constant stress but the two faults can be at different stresses the slip vector will maintain a constant angle relative to the trench normal even when obliquity is larger than the critical angle this limiting angle of the slip vector called max measured relative to the trench normal is simply the arcsine of the ratio of the shear forces resisting slip on the strike slip and thrust faults a consequence is that when the obliquity exceeds max the slip vectors on the thrust fault are sensitive only to the thrust fault orientation and contain no information about the convergence direction between the plates slip vectors at the java trench southwest of sumatra show the relationship clearly with max 20 5 while slip vectors at the aleutian trench show the relationship less clearly with max 25 to 45 the greater angle at the aleutian trench suggests that the upper plate is stronger in the aleutian arc relative to the thrust fault than in the sumatran arc consistent with the sumatran arc being continental and having a well developed strike slip fault while the aleutian arc is oceanic and without a clear transcurrent fault slip vectors at the philippine trench which like sumatra has a large strike slip fault inboard of it tend to stay within 25 of the trench normal when obliquity is as large as 50 if obliquity exceeds max and continues to increase along a subduction zone the rate of motion of the forearc relative to the upper plate will vary with obliquity in which case the forearc sliver should extend or contract parallel to the arc from the geometry of modern island arcs arc parallel extension should be the more common and has been hypothesized for both sumatra and the aleutians on the basis of earthquake slip vectors and for these and other arcs from geological observations from estimates of max and the arc parallel gradients in obliquity arc parallel strain rates are estimated to be 1 to 3 10 8 yr for the sumatran forearc 2 to 6 10 8 yr for the aleutian forearc and 0 3 to 3 10 8 yr for the philippine forearc oblique convergence and subsequent arc parallel extension if accompanied by crustal thinning may provide an important yet little appreciated mechanism for bringing high grade metamorphic rocks to the surface of subduction complexes

nine unusually large tsunami deposits from the past 4000 years at kiritappu marsh along the southern kuril trench abstract large earthquakes along the kuril subduction zone in northern japan are known to have caused damaging tsunami although there is a little information on historical earthquakes and tsunami in this area because no documents exist before the 19th century that might refer to tsunami events to determine the likely timing and size of future events we need information on their recurrence intervals and to do this for the prehistoric past we have investigated sediments located in the kiritappu marsh in eastern hokaido that we interpret as laid down by tsunami using reliable multiple lines of evidence from sedimentological geomorphological micropaleontological and chronological results we identify 13 tsunami sands two of these lie within a peat bed above a historical tephra ta a ad 1739 the upper one probably corresponds to the ad 1843 tempo tokachi oki earthquake m 8 2 tsunami and the lower to either the ad 1952 tokachi oki earthquake m 8 2 tsunami or the ad 1960 chilean earthquake m 9 5 tsunami underlying are 11 prehistoric tsunami sand beds nine large sand beds and two smaller sand beds deposited during the past 4000 years because of the wide spatial distribution of the large sand beds and inundation distances inland of between 1200 to 3000 m we suggest that they record unusually large tsunamis along the kuril subduction zone according to our analyses these tsunami sands were derived from the coastal area and although they do not show clear graded bedding they commonly have gradational upper boundaries and erosional bases and include internal sedimentary structures such as plane beds dunes and current ripples reflecting bedload transportation based on our results we calculate the recurrence interval of unusually large earthquakes probably m 8 6 along the kuril subduction zone as about 365 553 years and estimate the youngest large event to have occurred in the 17th century

the 2009 samoa tonga great earthquake triggered doublet great earthquakes having seismic magnitudes of at least 8 usually involve abrupt sliding of rock masses at a boundary between tectonic plates such interplate ruptures produce dynamic and static stress changes that can activate nearby intraplate aftershocks as is commonly observed in the trench slope region seaward of a great subduction zone thrust event1 the earthquake sequence addressed here involves a rare instance in which a great trench slope intraplate earthquake triggered extensive interplate faulting reversing the typical pattern and broadly expanding the seismic and tsunami hazard on 29 september 2009 within two minutes of the initiation of a normal faulting event with moment magnitude 8 1 in the outer trench slope at the northern end of the tonga subduction zone two major interplate underthrusting subevents both with moment magnitude 7 8 with total moment equal to a second great earthquake of moment magnitude 8 0 ruptured the nearby subduction zone megathrust the collective faulting produced tsunami waves with localized regions of about 12 metres run up that claimed 192 lives in samoa american samoa and tonga overlap of the seismic signals obscured the fact that distinct faults separated by more than 50 km had ruptured with different geometries with the triggered thrust faulting only being revealed by detailed seismic wave analyses extensive interplate and intraplate aftershock activity was activated over a large region of the northern tonga subduction zone

the rupture process and tectonic implications of the great 1964 prince william sound earthquake we have determined the rupture history of the march 28 1964 prince william sound earthquake m w 9 2 from long period wwssn p wave seismograms source time functions determined from the long period p waves indicate two major pulses of moment release the first and largest moment pulse has a duration of approximately 100 seconds with a relatively smooth onset which reaches a peak moment release rate at about 75 seconds into the rupture the second smaller pulse of moment release starts at approximately 160 seconds after the origin time and has a duration of roughly 40 seconds because of the large size of this event and thus a deficiency of on scale digitizable p wave seismograms it is impossible to uniquely invert for the location of moment release however if we assume a rupture direction based on the aftershock distribution and the results of surface wave directivity studies we are able to locate the spatial distribution of moment along the length of the fault the first moment pulse most likely initiated near the epicenter at the northeastern down dip edge of the aftershock area and then spread over the fault surface in a semi circular fashion until the full width of the fault was activated the rupture then extended toward the southwest approximately 300 km ruff and kanamori 1983 the second moment pulse was located in the vicinity of kodiak island starting at 500 km southwest of the epicenter and extending to about 600 km although the aftershock area extends southwest past the second moment pulse by at least 100 km the moment release remained low we interpret the 1964 prince william sound earthquake as a multiple asperity rupture with a very large dominant asperity in the epicentral region and a second major but smaller asperity in the kodiak island region

plate coupling variation and block translation in the andreanof segment of the aleutian arc determined by subduction zone modeling using gps data 1 we use gps measurements in the first geodetic study of plate coupling on the andreanof segment aleutian subduction zone convergence of 7 3 cm yr at the subduction zone results in northwestward displacements greater than 1 cm yr at stations located on the west end of the andreanof region but velocities at the east end are smaller in magnitude and oriented west southwest these velocity variations are caused by differences in plate coupling along the subduction zone which correlate with the rupture zones of the 1986 and 1996 mw8 earthquakes we construct a dislocation model to estimate the velocity of the arc in the andreanof region relative to north america and fault plane coupling coefficients our best model shows a southwestward velocity of 7 8 mm yr a high degree of coupling in the main thrust zone at the west end of the subduction zone and little to no coupling at the east end

deformation across the alaska aleutian subduction zone near kodiak the kodiak katmai geodetic array nine monuments distributed along a profile trending north northwestward across kodiak island and the alaska peninsula was surveyed in 1993 1995 and 1997 to determine the deformation at the alaska aleutian subduction zone velocities on kodiak island measured relative to the stable north american plate decrease with distance from the alaska aleutian trench distance range 106 to 250 km whereas no appreciable deformation was measured on the alaska peninsula distances 250 to 370 km from the trench the measured deformation is reasonably well predicted by the conventional dislocation representation of subduction with the model parameters determined independently i e not simply by fitting the observations the deformation of kodiak island is in striking contrast to the very minor deformation measured in the similarly situated shumagin islands 450 km southwest of kodiak along the alaska aleutian trench

the effect of seamount subduction on seismic coupling it has long been speculated that the subduction of seamounts may have profound mechanical consequences particularly on the generation of large subduction zone earthquakes we consider this problem as a special case of the seismic coupling model of scholz and campos the model predicts that the subduction of a large seamount will increase the normal stress across the subduction interface and hence will enhance seismic coupling in the case of coupled arcs this increased coupling will result in a large increase in the recurrence intervals of earthquakes such events will therefore appear rare in the instrumental record as is observed for decoupled arcs the subduction of a large seamount should cause them to become locally coupled three of the latter localities have been found with satellite altimetry data two on the tonga kermadec trench and one on the izu bonin trench the diagnostic feature is a shallowing or obstruction of the trench axis adjacent to a chain or group of large seamounts on the subducting plate in each case the small to moderate plate interface seismicity typical of decoupled seismic zones is almost completely absent in a 100 200 km arc segment indicating that the subduction zone is locally locked as predicted by the model the occurrence of large interplate earthquakes at both tonga sites confirms that they are seismically coupled

spatial correlation of interseismic coupling and coseismic rupture extent of the 2011 mw 9 0 tohoku oki earthquake 1 imaging the extent to which the rupture areas of great earthquakes coincide with regions of pre seismic interplate coupling is central to understanding patterns of strain accumulation and release through the earthquake cycle both geodetic and seismic estimates of the coseismic rupture extent for the march 11 2011 mw 8 9 9 0 earthquake tohoku oki earthquake may be spatially correlated 0 26 0 05 to 0 82 0 05 with a region estimated to be partially to fully coupled in the interseismic period preceding the earthquake though there is substantial variation in the estimated distribution and magnitude of coseismic slip the 400 km long region estimated to have slipped 4 m corresponds to an area of the subduction zone interface that was coupled at 30 of long term plate convergence rate with peak slip near a region coupled 80 the northern termination of rupture is collocated with a region of relatively low 20 interseismic coupling near the epicenter of the 1994 mw 7 6 sanriku oki earthquake and near a region of potential long term low coupling or ongoing slow slip slip on the subduction interface beneath the coastline 40 50 km depth is best constrained by the land based gps data and least constrained on the shallowest portion of the plate interface due to the 230 km distance between geodetic observations and the japan trench

interseismic deformation at the nankai subduction zone and the median tectonic line southwest japan 1 gps velocities in the vicinity of the nankai trough southwest japan were inverted into three components interplate loading due to nankai trough subduction deformation associated with deep slip on the median tectonic line mtl and the residual rigid plate motion the results show a gradual decrease of interplate seismic coupling between 25 and 40 km depth on the nankai trough interface this is consistent with the deep slip model in which the fault extends as a ductile shear zone with a depth variable interplate strain accumulation rate the top 20 km of the interface may not be fully coupled although the resolution is poor there the low coupling at shallow depths is consistent with the accretionary prism detected by seismic surveys the mtl slip rate is estimated to be between 0 00 and 5 50 mm yr if we assume a vertical fault and between 0 00 and 3 88 mm yr if we assume a north dipping fault combining our results with a geological estimate 4 9 mm yr and a geodetic estimate with a denser network 5 mm yr suggests that the mtl slip rate may be near the upper bound of our geodetic estimate that is 4 5 mm yr the rigid plate motion with respect to the stable eurasian craton was estimated to be very small indicating that southwestern japan is on the eurasian plate rather than a separate plate

finite element modeling of stress distributions and problems for multi slice longwall mining in bangladesh with special reference to the barapukuria coal mine abstract this paper deals with current coal mining operations under a mega aquifer in nw bangladesh and presents a case study of underground mining in barapukuria the study uses numerical analyses to evaluate stress redistribution strata failure and water inflow enhancements that result from these coal extraction operations a total of three models a b and c are presented in this study two dimensional numerical modeling was performed to analyze the deformation and failure behavior of rock elements for two different models a and b for model a we used an elastic finite element software package considering a mohr coulomb failure criterion for model b we used boundary element method bem the first two models were applied to determine the stress patterns model a provides the tectonic stress pattern of the basin whereas model b represents the mining induced stress field the third model is a schematic model the results of model a show that tensional failure of rock elements is concentrated in the gondwana coal sequences as well as within the eastern boundary fault ebf and its surroundings failure occurs in the middle to lower part of the model and the magnitude of tensional stress in the shallow part is much greater than in the deeper part contours of max magnitudes are attributed to up bending of the overburden which would create numerous upward propagating fissures fractures the results of model b show that fracture propagation would be about 240 m upward for single slice height 3 m mining extraction from the contours of mean stress magnitudes it is observed that the high range of fracture propagation increased upward for multi slice extraction of coal it is apparent from the fracture heights that large amounts of caving would occur towards the roof due to the multi slice extraction of coal and finally would be linked with the water bearing dupi tila formation if this happened it would ultimately cause a major water inflow hazard in the mine

near simultaneous great earthquakes at tongan megathrust and outer rise in september 2009 the tsunami that struck the samoan and northern tongan islands in september 2009 was preceded by a magnitude 8 earthquake on the outer slope of the oceanic trench where the pacific plate bends as it enters the subduction zone this was initially thought to be the sole source of the tsunami but a more complex picture is emerging two groups report the occurrence of two earthquakes a triggered doublet at nearly the same time and place what is not clear is which triggered the other beavan et al use an analysis of global positioning system station displacements and tsunami models to show that the outer rise earthquake was accompanied possibly triggered by a near simultaneous mega thrust earthquake in the adjacent tonga subduction zone lay et al analyse the available seismic data and their model suggests that the outer rise event triggered megathrust faulting either way this dual strike suggests a mechanism for the occasional large tsunamis generated at the tonga subduction zone on 29 september 2009 a tsunami devastated the samoan and northern tongan islands it is shown here that an unusual earthquake sequence preceded this tsunami a magnitude 8 earthquake in the outer rise intraplate region occurred almost simultaneously with rupture of the shallow subduction interplate interface equivalent to a magnitude 8 earthquake the findings provide information on strain release mechanisms at subduction zones and a possible mechanism for the occasional large tsunamis generated at the tonga subduction zone the earth s largest earthquakes and tsunamis are usually caused by thrust faulting earthquakes on the shallow part of the subduction interface between two tectonic plates where stored elastic energy due to convergence between the plates is rapidly released1 2 the tsunami that devastated the samoan and northern tongan islands on 29 september 2009 was preceded by a globally recorded magnitude 8 normal faulting earthquake in the outer rise region where the pacific plate bends before entering the subduction zone preliminary interpretation suggested that this earthquake was the source of the tsunami3 here we show that the outer rise earthquake was accompanied by a nearly simultaneous rupture of the shallow subduction interface equivalent to a magnitude 8 earthquake that also contributed significantly to the tsunami the subduction interface event was probably a slow earthquake with a rise time of several minutes that triggered the outer rise event several minutes later however we cannot rule out the possibility that the normal fault ruptured first and dynamically triggered the subduction interface event our evidence comes from displacements of global positioning system stations and modelling of tsunami waves recorded by ocean bottom pressure sensors with support from seismic data and tsunami field observations evidence of the subduction earthquake in global seismic data is largely hidden because of the earthquake s slow rise time or because its ground motion is disguised by that of the normal faulting event earthquake doublets where subduction interface events trigger large outer rise earthquakes have been recorded previously4 but this is the first well documented example where the two events occur so closely in time and the triggering event might be a slow earthquake as well as providing information on strain release mechanisms at subduction zones earthquakes such as this provide a possible mechanism for the occasional large tsunamis generated at the tonga subduction zone5 where slip between the plates is predominantly aseismic6

depth of seismic coupling along subduction zones underthrusting at subduction zones can cause large earthquakes at shallow depths but it is always accommodated by aseismic deformation below a certain depth the maximum depth of the seismically coupled zone or seismogenic zone is a transition from unstable to stable sliding along the plate interface we have determined the depth of this stability transition for the circurn pacific subduction zones of honshu kuriles kamchatka aleutians alaska mexico and chile these subduction zones have experienced great interplate earthquakes and the aftershock regions are well located depth estimates of interplate events that are located at the downdip edge of the aftershock regions are used to determine the maximum depth of seismic coupling for an average p wave velocity of 6 7 km s 1 above the plate interface we find that for most subduction zones the stability transition occurs at 40 5 km depth there are however several exceptions at the hokkaido trench junction where the japan trench and the kurile trench intersect seismic coupling is deep and extends down to 52 55 km deep coupling was also found in the coquimbo region in central chile the mexico subduction zone has shallow coupling the transition occurs at 20 30 km depth previous studies of micro earthquakes in honshu hokkaido the aleutians and alaska show that earthquakes within the upper plate extend no deeper than the downdip edge of the coupled zone that we find given our measurements of seismic coupling depth we then explore the mechanism that may determine coupling depth the concept of critical temperature has been used to explain the depth of seismic coupling in other tectonic environments thus we first test whether a critical temperature can explain our results temperatures at the plate interface are dependent on many variables but two that are poorly determined are shear stress and radiogenic heat generation shear stress has been constrained by inversion of heat flow data assuming a crustal radiogenic heat production rate of 3 1 exp z 8 5 wm 3 and a constant coefficient of friction we find two critical temperatures of about 400 c and 550 c the lower critical temperature may be characteristic of regions with a relatively thick continental crust and the higher temperature of regions with a relatively thin continental crust on the other hand one single critical temperature of about 250 c can explain the coupling depths if shear stresses are constant with depth

diverse slow slip behavior at the hikurangi subduction margin new zealand 1 the installation of a continuous gps cgps network in new zealand since 2002 has enabled the discovery of 15 slow slip events at the hikurangi subduction margin our analysis and interpretation of the cgps data reveal a marked diversity in characteristics of slow slip events sses in the north island with durations varying from 6 days to 1 5 years equivalent moment release between mw 6 3 7 2 and recurrence intervals of repeating sses on the order of 2 years to more than 5 years the duration and magnitude characteristics of hikurangi sses appear to be related to the depth where they occur the deepest longest duration and largest sses occur at the southern hikurangi margin near the downdip limit of deep down to 40 km depth strong interseismic coupling the shallowest shortest duration smallest and most frequent sses occur at the northern and central hikurangi margin near the downdip limit of unusually shallow 10 15 km depth interseismic coupling the direction of slip on the interface in the hikurangi sses is consistent with slip partitioning at the hikurangi subduction margin we also show that moment accumulation rates on the interface for the time periods between sses are 40 higher than for the period of more than a decade averaging through the sses indicating that sses compose a major portion of the overall moment release budget of the hikurangi subduction interface

the seismic coupling of subduction zones revisited 1 the nature of seismic coupling for many of the world s subduction zones has been reevaluated geodetic estimates of seismic coupling obtained from gps measurements of upper plate deformation during the interseismic period are summarized we compared those with new estimates of seismic coupling obtained from seismological data the results show that with a few notable exceptions the two methods agree to within about 10 the seismological estimates have been greatly improved over those made 20 30 years ago because of an abundance of paleoseismological data that greatly extend the temporal record of great subduction earthquakes and by the occurrence in the intervening years of an unusual number of great and giant earthquakes that have filled in some of the most critical holes in the seismic record the data also again with a few notable exceptions support the frictional instability theory of seismic coupling and in particular the test of that theory made by scholz and campos 1995 overall the results support their prediction that high coupling occurs for subduction zones subjected to high normal forces with a switch to low coupling occurring fairly abruptly as the normal force decreases below a critical value there is also considerable variation of coupling within individual subduction zones earthquake asperities correlate with areas of high coupling and hence have a semblance of permanence but the rupture zones and asperity distributions of great earthquakes may differ greatly between seismic cycles because of differences in the phase of seismic flux accumulation

spatial relation between main earthquake slip and its aftershock distribution 1 we examine where aftershocks occur relative to the spatial distribution of the main shock slip using data from several recent large earthquakes no universal relation between high and low moment regions and high or low aftershock occurrence or vice versa is found we generally find that few and usually the smaller aftershocks occur in the high slip regions of the fault a notable exception to this being the great 1996 biak indonesia subduction zone earthquake in all cases aftershocks occur on favorably oriented planes of weakness in regions of increased postseismic stress generally they are clustered at both ends of faults but examples where aftershocks occur only at one end or where there is no clustering at the ends are found aftershock clusters are also found at the edge of unbroken barriers and regions of rapid transition from high to low slip within the main fault area we identify examples of geometrical and inhomogeneous barriers and sharp and dull stress concentrations rupture in the main shock is generally found to nucleate in the region of low slip or at the edge of high slip regions the 1996 biak earthquake again being the only exception nucleating in a very high slip region off fault aftershocks are found for all earthquakes in this study and they sometimes rupture the nodal plane conjugate to the main shock fault plane

a large slow slip event and the depth of the seismogenic zone in the south central alaska subduction zone abstract we modeled crustal deformation before during and after a slow slip event sse on the plate interface in southern alaska we divided the gps time series into three time periods before 1998 1998 to 2001 and 2001 2002 the first and last periods represent the steady deformation while the middle period represents the sse we found a stationary zone of 100 slip deficit in the shallow part of the seismogenic zone to depths of 25 30 km which we identify with the main asperity that ruptured in 1964 earthquake the sse occurs downdip of the asperity on a section that accumulated some slip deficit during the steady time periods during the sse 20 000 sq km of the plate interface slipped 10 cm for a cumulative moment magnitude of m w 7 2 the area of the sse did not have a significant slip in the 1964 earthquake compared to the slip of the main asperity we propose that between earthquakes this zone fails repeatedly in sses and remains at relatively low shear stress compared to the main asperity up dip of it

the 2010 mw 8 8 maule megathrust earthquake of central chile monitored by gps large earthquakes produce crustal deformation that can be quantified by geodetic measurements allowing for the determination of the slip distribution on the fault we used data from global positioning system gps networks in central chile to infer the static deformation and the kinematics of the 2010 moment magnitude m w 8 8 maule megathrust earthquake from elastic modeling we found a total rupture length of 500 kilometers where slip up to 15 meters concentrated on two main asperities situated on both sides of the epicenter we found that rupture reached shallow depths probably extending up to the trench resolvable afterslip occurred in regions of low coseismic slip the low frequency hypocenter is relocated 40 kilometers southwest of initial estimates rupture propagated bilaterally at about 3 1 kilometers per second with possible but not fully resolved velocity variations

partial rupture of a locked patch of the sumatra megathrust during the 2007 earthquake sequence the great sumatra andaman earthquake and tsunami of 2004 was a dramatic reminder of the importance of understanding the seismic and tsunami hazards of subduction zones 1 2 3 4 in march 2005 the sunda megathrust ruptured again producing an event 5 of moment magnitude mw 8 6 south of the 2004 rupture area which was the site of a similar event in 1861 ref 6 concern was then focused on the mentawai area where large earthquakes had occurred in 1797 mw 8 8 and 1833 mw 9 0 6 7 two earthquakes one of mw 8 4 and twelve hours later one of mw 7 9 indeed occurred there on 12 september 2007 here we show that these earthquakes ruptured only a fraction of the area ruptured in 1833 and consist of distinct asperities within a patch of the megathrust that had remained locked in the interseismic period this indicates that the same portion of a megathrust can rupture in different patterns depending on whether asperities break as isolated seismic events or cooperate to produce a larger rupture this variability probably arises from the influence of non permanent barriers zones with locally lower pre stress due to the past earthquakes the stress state of the portion of the sunda megathrust that had ruptured in 1833 and 1797 was probably not adequate for the development of a single large rupture in 2007 the moment released in 2007 amounts to only a fraction both of that released in 1833 and of the deficit of moment that had accumulated as a result of interseismic strain since 1833 the potential for a large megathrust event in the mentawai area thus remains large

plate boundary deformation associated with the great sumatra andaman earthquake the sumatra andaman earthquake of 26 december 2004 is the first giant earthquake moment magnitude m w 9 0 to have occurred since the advent of modern space based geodesy and broadband seismology it therefore provides an unprecedented opportunity to investigate the characteristics of one of these enormous and rare events here we report estimates of the ground displacement associated with this event using near field global positioning system gps surveys in northwestern sumatra combined with in situ and remote observations of the vertical motion of coral reefs these data show that the earthquake was generated by rupture of the sunda subduction megathrust over a distance of 1 500 kilometres and a width of 150 kilometres megathrust slip exceeded 20 metres offshore northern sumatra mostly at depths shallower than 30 kilometres comparison of the geodetically and seismically inferred slip distribution indicates that 30 per cent additional fault slip accrued in the 1 5 months following the 500 second long seismic rupture both seismic and aseismic slip before our re occupation of gps sites occurred on the shallow portion of the megathrust where the large aceh tsunami originated slip tapers off abruptly along strike beneath simeulue island at the southeastern edge of the rupture where the earthquake nucleated and where an m w 7 2 earthquake occurred in late 2002 this edge also abuts the northern limit of slip in the 28 march 2005 m w 8 7 nias simeulue earthquake

aperiodic recurrence of geologically recorded tsunamis during the past 5500 years in eastern hokkaido japan 1 along hokkaido s pacific coast near the town of kiritappu sandy deposits in a muddy lagoon and on a nearby beach ridge plain provide evidence for 15 tsunamis between 200 and 6000 years ago additional sand beds at the lagoon probably represent the historical tsunamis of a d 1843 and 1894 we observed the sequences of sandy deposits in continuous slices 2 to 4 m deep some of the deposits consist of just a single sand bed whereas others contain multiple units of sand muddy sand or sandy mud and mud caps including plant detritus we also found at the lagoon a 17th century tsunami deposit that thickens and thins regardless of elevation or distance inland we bracketed the ages of most of the inferred tsunamis by radiocarbon dating of detritus mainly seeds and leaves at the lagoon and charcoal at the beach ridge plain from pretsunami and posttsunami beds tsunami dates computed from the bracketing ages commonly have uncertainties spanning 2 to 4 centuries within these uncertainties the inferred sequence of 15 prehistoric tsunamis at the lagoon beginning almost 6000 years ago can be matched tsunami by tsunami with the inferred history at the beach ridge plain 15 km away the sand sheet extents suggest that most of these tsunamis were larger than any generated at hokkaido in the last 200 years the intervals between these inferred outsized tsunamis average nearly 400 years but range widely from about 100 to about 800 years

paleoseismic inferences from a high resolution marine sedimentary record in northern chile 23 s abstract the active margin of northern chile is characterized by strong seismic events which induce gravity instability for sedimentary sequences located along the outer forearc of the andean range even though the narrow continental platform of this area limits the accumulation of marine sediments a detailed paleoceanographic reconstruction using high resolution sedimentological and geochronological techniques of a holocene sedimentary sequence in mejillones bay 23 s provides important tools to infer the occurrence of past great subduction earthquakes and or associated tsunamis from the analyses of short cores retrieved in this shallow marine basin we infer the occurrence of two strong seismic events during historical times the first one dated between the years 1409 and 1449 ad produced an angular unconformity and associated lenticular coarse grained deposits generated after local reworking of shallower material the second one dated between the years 1754 and 1789 ad caused slumping erosive processes and local reworking of material the analysis of seismic profile data acquired in this bay allowed the recognition of a major slump deposit within the upper sedimentary sequence tentatively dated as of middle holocene age this event might record the greatest earthquake and tsunami affecting the basin within the last few thousand years we interpret that destabilization of sediments occurs most probably in response to local reactivation of faults within the mejillones peninsula during strong earthquakes especially the mejillones fault

on the mechanism of seismic decoupling and back arc spreading at subduction zones to address the problem of the great variability of the mechanical state of subduction zones we investigate the mechanics of back arc spreading and seismic decoupling back arc spreading is assumed to be due to rifting of the upper plate and hence occurs when trench normal tension reaches a critical value seismic decoupling is assumed to occur when the normal stress at the frictional interface is decreased by an amount sufficient to cross the friction stability transition two forces are important in this problem the first is a small component of the slab pull force which remains unbalanced by the subduction resistance and exerts a vertical suction force at the trench the second is a sea anchor force exerted on the slab that resists its lateral motion assumed to occur at the upper plate velocity both forces contribute to the coupling problem only the sea anchor force is responsible for back arc spreading the unbalanced slab pull force is determined from a force balance for subduction the sea anchor force is computed as the hydrodynamic resistance to the facewise translation of an elliptical disc through a viscous fluid the model predicts three regimes seismically coupled compressional arcs with advancing upper plates seismically decoupled extensional arcs with retreating upper plates and strongly extensional arcs which also have back arc spreading this model is applied in detail to the izu bonin marianas system it shows that back arc spreading occurs when the integrated tension in the upper plate exceeds a value of about 1 1013 n m 1 and requires a residual tension of about a third that to drive the back arc spreading once rifting is completed it shows why the plate interface near guam is seismically coupled while the plate boundary everywhere farther north is decoupled when applied globally it successfully predicts the state of seismic coupling and back arc spreading in more than 80 of the world s subduction zones of the remaining half can be seen to contain additional complications not included in the model about 10 of cases remain unexplained but some of these may have incorrectly determined seismic coupling coefficients

the ms 8 tensional earthquake of 9 december 1950 of northern chile and its relation to the seismic potential of the region abstract the only known great m s 8 intermediate depth earthquake localized downdip of the main thrust zone of the chilean subduction zone occurred landward of antofagasta on 9 december 1950 in this paper we determine the source parameters and rupture process of this shock by modeling long period body waves the source mechanism corresponds to a downdip tensional intraplate event rupturing along a nearly vertical plane with a seismic moment of m 0 1 10 28 dyn cm of strike 350 dip 88 slip 270 m w 7 9 and a stress drop of about 100 bar the source time function consists of two subevents the second being responsible for 70 of the total moment release the unusually large magnitude m s 8 of this intermediate depth event suggests a rupture through the entire lithosphere the spatial and temporal stress regime in this region is discussed the simplest interpretation suggests that a large thrust earthquake should follow the 1950 tensional shock considering that the historical record of the region does not show large earthquakes a slow earthquake can be postulated as an alternative mechanism to unload the thrust zone a weakly coupled subduction zone within an otherwise strongly coupled region as evidenced by great earthquakes to the north and south or the existence of creep are not consistent with the occurrence of a large tensional earthquake in the subducting lithosphere downdip of the thrust zone the study of focal mechanisms of the outer rise earthquakes would add more information which would help us to infer the present state of stress in the thrust region

interplate seismogenic zones along the kuril japan trench inferred from gps data inversion stress accumulation between earthquakes results from slip that is insufficient to fully accommodate plate movement an inverse analysis of gps data from the kuril japan trench reveals a trench parallel belt of stress accumulation with six peaks in the depth range of 10 40 km suggesting potential source regions for future earthquakes in the subduction zones around japan where four plates interact with one another large earthquakes have occurred repeatedly1 these interplate earthquakes are part of the process of tectonic stress accumulation and release that is driven by relative plate motion2 3 4 stress accumulation between earthquakes results from slip deficit slip that is insufficient to fully accommodate plate movement for the prediction of large earthquakes it is therefore important to monitor the distribution of slip deficit on plate interfaces here we apply an inversion method based on bayesian modelling using direct and indirect prior information on the magnitude and distribution of fault slip5 to horizontal and vertical velocities from global positioning system data for the seismically calm period between 1996 and 2000 we obtain a precise distribution of slip deficit rates on the interface between the north american and pacific plates around japan which reveals a trench parallel belt of slip deficit with six peaks in the depth range of 10 40 km these peaks agree with the source regions of past large interplate earthquakes along the kuril japan trench we conclude that the slip deficit zones identified with our method are potential source regions of large earthquakes

coral evidence for earthquake recurrence and an a d 1390 1455 cluster at the south end of the 2004 aceh andaman rupture coral records of relative sea level change provide a history of vertical interseismic and coseismic deformation along the coast of northern simeulue island sumatra and reveal details about earthquakes in the 10th and 14th 15th centuries a d along the southern end of the december 2004 m w 9 2 sunda megathrust rupture over a 56 year period between a d 1390 and 1455 northern simeulue experienced a cluster of megathrust ruptures associated with total uplift that was considerably more than in 2004 uplifted corals at two sites constrain the first event of the cluster to a d 1393 3 and 1394 2 2 a smaller but well substantiated uplift occurred in northern simeulue in 1430 3 an inferred third uplift in a d 1450 3 killed all corals on the reef flats of northern simeulue the amount of uplift during this third event though confirmed only to have exceeded 28 and 41 cm at two sites probably surpassed the 100 and 44 cm that occurred respectively at those sites in 2004 and it was likely more than in 2004 over all of northern simeulue the evidence for past earthquake clustering combined with the inference of considerably greater uplift in a d 1390 1455 than in 2004 suggests that strain may still be stored along the southernmost part of the 2004 rupture interseismic subsidence rates recorded by northern simeulue coral microatolls have varied by up to a factor of 4 at some sites from one earthquake cycle to another

coseismic slip resolution along a plate boundary megathrust the nankai trough southwest japan geodetic survey measurements are used to estimate the coseismic slip distribution in the 1944 tonankai mw 8 1 and 1946 nankaido mw 8 3 earthquakes and to assess quantitatively the degree to which this slip is resolved on the plate boundary megathrust data used include 798 angle changes from triangulation surveys 328 leveling section differences and 5 coseismic tidal gage offsets many of the nominally coseismic triangulation data span 50 years nearly half the earthquake cycle and correction for interseismic deformation using post 1950 observations is applied microseismicity is used to define the configuration of the plate boundary interface and approximate it with a continuous multisegment fault model because the onshore geodetic data have very limited resolving power for offshore fault segments offshore coseismic slip was constrained by satake s 1993 estimation based on tsunami data the majority of the coseismic slip occurs between 15 and 25 km depth although resolution declines toward the trench axis it is sufficiently good to define two distinct high slip regions one off southeastern shikoku island 11 m maximum and the other offshore of kii peninsula 3 m maximum the slip magnitude off southeastern shikoku coupled with the plate convergence rate would imply an recurrence interval of about 270 years much longer than the average repeat time of 120 years for historical great earthquakes on the nankai trough however the maximum coseismic slip is sensitive to the assumed fault geometry and slippage on trough parallel splay faults could significantly decrease the maximum slip to about 6 m

interseismic deformation above the sunda megathrust recorded in coral microatolls of the mentawai islands west sumatra past half century vary from 2 to 14 mm yr 1 and increase southwestward toward the subduction trench the pattern is consistent with rates of subsidence measured by a sparse network of continuously recording global positioning system cgps stations and with locking of a 400 km long section of the underlying subduction megathrust between about 1s and 4s this record of subsidence and tilting extending nearly a century into the past implies that the region is advancing toward the occurrence of another giant earthquake however evidence of episodic rather than steady subsidence reflects a behavior that is more complex than simple elastic strain accumulation and relief most prominent of these episodes is an extensive emergence subsidence couplet in about 1962 which may be the result of rapid aseismic slip on the megathrust between the islands and the trench lower subsidence rates recorded by the corals since about 1985 may reflect failure on many small patches within the locked section of the megathrust

circum pacific seismic potential 1989 1999 the seismic potential for 96 segments of simple plate boundaries around the circum pacific region is presented in terms of the conditional probability for the occurrence of either large or great interplate earthquakes during the next 5 10 and 20 years i e 1989 1994 1989 1999 and 1989 2009 this study represents the first probabilistic summary of seismic potential on this scale and involves the comparison of plate boundary segments that exhibit varying recurrence times magnitudes and tectonic regimes presenting these data in a probabilistic framework provides a basis for the uniform comparison of seismic hazard between these differing fault segments as well as accounting for individual variations in recurrence time along a specific fault segment and uncertainties in the determination of the average recurrence time

seismic and aseismic slip on the central peru megathrust slip on a subduction megathrust can be seismic or aseismic with the two modes of slip complementing each other in time and space to accommodate the long term plate motions although slip is almost purely aseismic at depths greater than about 40 km heterogeneous surface strain suggests that both modes of slip occur at shallower depths with aseismic slip resulting from steady or transient creep in the interseismic and postseismic periods thus active faults seem to comprise areas that slip mostly during earthquakes and areas that mostly slip aseismically the size location and frequency of earthquakes that a megathrust can generate thus depend on where and when aseismic creep is taking place and what fraction of the long term slip rate it accounts for here we address this issue by focusing on the central peru megathrust we show that the pisco earthquake with moment magnitude m w 8 0 ruptured two asperities within a patch that had remained locked in the interseismic period and triggered aseismic frictional afterslip on two adjacent patches the most prominent patch of afterslip coincides with the subducting nazca ridge an area also characterized by low interseismic coupling which seems to have repeatedly acted as a barrier to seismic rupture propagation in the past the seismogenic portion of the megathrust thus appears to be composed of interfingering rate weakening and rate strengthening patches the rate strengthening patches contribute to a high proportion of aseismic slip and determine the extent and frequency of large interplate earthquakes aseismic slip accounts for as much as 50 70 of the slip budget on the seismogenic portion of the megathrust in central peru and the return period of earthquakes with m w 8 0 in the pisco area is estimated to be 250 years

cenozoic climate change as a possible cause for the rise of the andes causal links between the rise of a large mountain range and climate have often been considered to work in one direction with significant uplift provoking climate change here we propose a mechanism by which cenozoic climate change could have caused the rise of the andes based on considerations of the force balance in the south american lithosphere we suggest that the height of and tectonics in the andes are strongly controlled both by shear stresses along the plate interface in the subduction zone and by buoyancy stress contrasts between the trench and highlands and shear stresses in the subduction zone depend on the amount of subducted sediments we propose that the dynamics of subduction and mountain building in this region are controlled by the processes of erosion and sediment deposition and ultimately climate in central south america climate controlled sediment starvation would then cause high shear stress focusing the plate boundary stresses that support the high andes

recent crustal deformation and the earthquake cycle along the ecuador colombia subduction zone recent results from global positioning system gps measurements show deformation along the coast of ecuador and colombia that can be linked to the rupture zone of the earthquake in 1979 a 3d elastic boundary element model is used to simulate crustal deformation observed by gps campaigns in 1991 1994 1996 and 1998 deformation in ecuador can be explained best by 50 apparent locking on the subduction interface although there have not been any historic large earthquakes mw 7 south of the 1906 earthquake rupture zone 50 apparent elastic locking is necessary to model the deformation observed there in colombia only 30 apparent elastic locking is occurring along the subduction interface in the 1979 earthquake rupture zone mw 8 2 and no elastic locking is necessary to explain the crustal deformation observed at two gps sites north of there there is no evidence from seismicity or plate geometry that plate coupling on the subduction zone is reduced in colombia however simple viscoelastic models suggest that the apparent reduction in elastic locking can be explained entirely by the response of a viscous upper mantle to the 1979 earthquake these results suggest that elastic strain accumulation is occurring evenly throughout the study area but postseismic relaxation masks the true total strain rate

interplate coupling in the tokai district central japan deduced from continuous gps data i invert gps displacement rates in the tokai district to investigate strain accumulation associated with the anticipated tokai earthquake i apply a representation of interseismic strain accumulation at subduction zones by savage 1983 and estimate a distribution of virtual normal fault slip back slip on the plate boundary surface estimated back slip takes its maximum value of 30 40mm year under the sea of enshu this value is nearly equal to the relative plate motion there implying almost complete coupling back slip is smaller under suruga bay and its direction is different from the relative motion between the eurasian and the philippine sea plates localized deformation at the northern tip of the philippine sea plate may be responsible for this discrepancy partitioning tectonic strain due to the plate convergence into faults on both sides of the izu peninsula and also distributed strain inside the peninsula

the 1994 java tsunami earthquake slip over a subducting seamount on june 2 1994 a large subduction thrust earthquake ms 7 2 produced a devastating tsunami on the island of java this earthquake had a number of unusual characteristics it was the first recorded large thrust earthquake on the java subduction zone all of the aftershock mechanisms exhibit normal faulting no mechanisms are similar to the main shock also the large tsunami and the relatively low energy radiated by the main shock have led to suggestions that this earthquake might have involved slow shallow rupture near the trench similar to the 1992 nicaragua earthquake we first relocate the main shock and the aftershocks we then invert long period surface waves and broadband body waves to determine the depth and spatial distribution of the main shock slip a dip of 12 hypocenter depth of 16 km and moment of 3 5 l020 n m mw 7 6 give the best fit to the combined seismic data and are consistent with the plate interface geometry the source spectrum obtained from both body and surface waves has a single corner frequency between 10 and 20 mhz implying a stress drop of 0 3 mpa the main energy release was preceded by a small subevent lasting 12 s the main slip occurred at 20 km depth downdip and to the nw of the hypocenter this area of slip is collocated with a prominent high in the bathymetry that has been identified as a subducting seamount we interpret the java earthquake as slip over this subducting seamount which is a locked patch in an otherwise decoupled subduction zone we find no evidence for slow shallow rupture no thrust aftershocks are expected if the entire locked zone slipped during the main shock but extension of the subducting plate behind the seamount would promote normal faulting as observed it seems probable that such a source model could also explain the size and timing of the observed tsunami

absence of strain accumulation in the western shumagin segment of the alaska subduction zone gps measurements in the western shumagin segment of the alaska subduction zone show no significant strain the elastic dislocation model that best fits the data has the entire plate interface slipping freely the simplest explanation is that steady slip at the plate convergence rate is occurring on the entire plate interface although we cannot rule out the existence of a shallow locked patch close to the trench large enough to generate a m 7 earthquake the 99 confidence upper bound on the down dip width of the locked patch is 55 km assuming the trench is the the updip limit of the locked zone unless there is significant temporal variability in the locking of the plate interface or viscoelastic effects from a past earthquake the shumagin segment cannot by itself release enough moment to generate a great m 8 earthquake

the 17 july 2006 java tsunami earthquake the 17 july 2006 java earthquake involved thrust faulting in the java trench and excited a deadly tsunami 5 8 m that inundated the southern coast of java the earthquake s size estimates vary significantly with seismic wave period very long period signals 300 500 s indicate a seismic moment of 6 7 10 20 nm m w 7 8 m s 20 s 7 2 m b 1 s 6 2 while shaking intensities 3 10 hz were mmiv the large tsunami relative to ms characterizes this event as a tsunami earthquake like previous tsunami earthquakes the java event had an unusually low rupture speed of 1 0 1 5 km s and occurred near the up dip edge of the subduction zone thrust fault most large aftershocks involved normal faulting the rupture propagated 200 km along the trench with several pulses of shorter period seismic radiation superimposed on a smooth background rupture with an overall duration of 185 s

the 1957 great aleutian earthquake the 9 march 1957 aleutian earthquake has been estimated as the third largest earthquake this century and has the longest aftershock zone of any earthquake ever recorded 1200 km however due to a lack of high quality seismic data the actual source parameters for this earthquake have been poorly determined we have examined all the available waveform data to determine the seismic moment rupture area and slip distribution these data include body surface and tsunami waves using body waves we have estimated the duration of significant moment release as 4 min from surface wave analysis we have determined that significant moment release occurred only in the western half of the aftershock zone and that the best estimate for the seismic moment is 50 100 1020 nm using the tsunami waveforms we estimated the source area of the 1957 tsunami by backward propagation the tsunami source area is smaller than the aftershock zone and is about 850 km long this does not include the unalaska island area in the eastern end of the aftershock zone making this area a possible seismic gap and a possible site of a future large or great earthquake we also inverted the tsunami waveforms for the slip distribution slip on the 1957 rupture zone was highest in the western half near the epicenter little slip occurred in the eastern half the moment is estimated as 88 1020 nm or m w 8 6 making it the seventh largest earthquake during the period 1900 to 1993 we also compare the 1957 earthquake to the 1986 andreanof islands earthquake which occurred within a segment of the 1957 rupture area the 1986 earthquake represents a rerupturing of the major 1957 asperity

seismic history and seismotectonics of the sunda arc historic records of the last 300 years reveal two great interplate earthquakes 1833 mw 8 1861 mw 8 8 which ruptured major segments of the sumatra fore arc in western indonesia a significant percentage of interplate slip along this portion of the plate boundary appears to occur seismically the ends of these rupture zones are coincident with clusters of large ms 7 and moderate 6 ms 7 shocks and with heterogeneities in the plate interface as inferred from geologic and geophysical data the northern extent of the 1833 rupture zone is coincident with a group of moderate and large earthquakes a structural arch in the fore arc and a fracture zone on the subducted plate the southern portion is coincident with a very prominent cluster and the along strike extension of a sediment filled trough on the subducted plate prior to this study sumatra was characterized as relatively aseismic as inferred from the lack of great earthquakes in the instrumental record of this century java and the lesser sunda islands had major ms 6 earthquakes in the historic record but none are of the same magnitude as the great events near sumatra there is no clear evidence that shocks in the java fore arc were interplate events yet geophysical data indicate recent uplift of the trench slope break and a change in strike of the trench axis where the northernmost flank of the roo rise a prominent bathymetrie high appears to be interacting with the fore arc this feature was formed at a ridge crest and is more buoyant and thus more difficult to subduct than the surrounding seafloor there is no increase in seismicity associated with this tectonism however that may indicate a lack of contact between the crystalline portions of the plates at this time we infer that a majority of slip on the plate interface near java occurs aseismically the variation in occurrence of great interplate earthquakes along the sunda arc may be interpreted in terms of a model that attributes variation in interplate coupling to the age of the subducted lithosphere great interplate earthquakes occur near sumatra where the age of the youngest crust is 46 ma the characteristics of the sunda arc and analogies with pacific arcs imply that the entire length of sumatra has the potential to produce great thrust earthquakes its seismic potential should be considered high as there has been no recurrence of the great events of 1833 and 1861 in contrast no such events have been reported off java and the lesser sunda islands where the oldest crust is 152 ma the plate interface near java and the lesser sunda islands should be considered to have low seismic potential

seismic coupling and uncoupling at subduction zones seismic coupling has been used as a qualitative measure of the interaction between the two plates at subduction zones kanamori 1971 introduced seismic coupling after noting that the characteristic size of earthquakes varies systematically for the northern pacific subduction zones a quantitative global comparison of many subduction zones reveals a strong correlation of earthquake size with two other variables age of the subducting lithosphere and convergence rate the largest earthquakes occur in zones with young lithosphere and fast convergence rates while zones with old lithosphere and slow rates are relatively aseismic for large earthquakes results from a study of the rupture process of three great earthquakes indicate that maximum earthquake size is directly related to the asperity distribution on the fault plane asperities are strong regions that resist the motion between the two plates the zones with the largest earthquakes have very large asperities while the zones with smaller earthquakes have small scattered asperities this observation can be translated into a simple model of seismic coupling where the horizontal compressive stress between the two plates is proportional to the ratio of the summed asperity area to the total area of the contact surface while the variation in asperity size is used to establish a connection between earthquake size and tectonic stress it also implies that plate age and rate affect the asperity distribution plate age and rate can control asperity distribution directly by use of the horizontal compressive stress associated with the preferred trajectory i e the vertical and horizontal velocities of subducting slabs are determined by the plate age and convergence velocity indirect influences are many including oceanic plate topography and the amount of subducted sediments all subduction zones are apparently uncoupled below a depth of about 40 km and we propose that the basalt to eclogite phase change in the down going oceanic crust may be largely responsible this phase change should start at a depth of 30 35 km and could at least partially uncouple the plates by superplastic deformation throughout the oceanic crust during the phase change

growth of exfoliation joints and near surface stress orientations inferred from fractographic markings observed in the upper aar valley swiss alps abstract granitic rock mass of the upper aar valley grimsel area switzerland contains distinct generations of exfoliation joints which formed during different stages of the pleistocene subparallel to distinct glacial valley palaeotopography the bulk of exfoliation joints shows prominent common fractographic features 1 radial plumose structures with distinct plume axes 2 arrest marks superimposed by plumose striations and 3 gradually developing en echelon fringe cracks multiple arrest marks reveal that exfoliation joints formed incrementally and together with the absence of hackle fringes suggest stable i e subcritical fracturing conditions smooth transitions from plumose structures on the parent plane to en echelon fringe cracks combined with non systematic stepping senses of fringe cracks suggest local vs temporal stress field variations assuming that plume axes formed parallel to the maximum principal compressive stress 1 enables us to infer near surface palaeostress orientations and compare them with classical borehole based in situ stress data the majority of plume axes suggest 1 persistently subhorizontal to slightly inclined 1 orientations at trough valley slopes and 2 near surface variability of 1 orientations originating from topographic perturbation caused by glacial valley erosion superimposed on the regional stress field our investigations of fracture surface morphologies yield unique insights into exfoliation fracture formation such as directional trends of fracture propagation and associated palaeostress orientations within alpine valley slopes

age estimates of coastal terraces in the andaman and nicobar islands and their tectonic implications the great indian ocean earthquake of december 26 2004 caused significant vertical changes in its rupture zone about 800 km of the rupture is along the andaman and nicobar islands which forms the outer arc ridge of the subduction zone coseismic deformation along the exposed land could be observed as uplift subsidence here we analyze the morphological features along the coast of the andaman and nicobar islands in an effort to reconstruct the past tectonics taking cues from the coseismic effects we obtained radiocarbon dates from coastal terraces of the island belt and used them to compute uplift rates which vary from 1 33 mm yr 1 in the little andaman to 2 80 mm yr 1 in south andaman and 2 45 mm yr 1 in the north andaman our radiocarbon dates converge on sim 600 yr and sim 1000 yr old coastal uplifts which we attribute to the level changes due to two major previous subduction earthquakes in the region

multi segment earthquakes and tsunami potential of the aleutian megathrust abstract large to great earthquakes and related tsunamis generated on the aleutian megathrust produce major hazards for both the area of rupture and heavily populated coastlines around much of the pacific ocean here we use paleoseismic records preserved in coastal sediments to investigate whether segment boundaries control the largest ruptures or whether in some seismic cycles segments combine to produce earthquakes greater than any observed since instrumented records began virtually the entire megathrust has ruptured since ad1900 with four different segments generating earthquakes m8 0 the largest was the m9 2 great alaska earthquake of march 1964 that ruptured 800 km of the eastern segment of the megathrust the tsunami generated caused fatalities in alaska and along the coast as far south as california east of the 1964 zone of deformation the yakutat microplate experienced two m8 0 earthquakes separated by a week in september 1899 for the first time we present evidence that earthquakes 900 and 1500 years ago simultaneously ruptured adjacent segments of the aleutian megathrust and the yakutat microplate with a combined area 15 greater than 1964 giving an earthquake of greater magnitude and increased tsunamigenic potential

interplate coupling in southwest japan deduced from inversion analysis of gps data abstract recently the geographical survey institute of japan completed the installation of a gps continuous observation network in japan which has enabled us to investigate real time crustal movements in this study we attempt to obtain spatial distribution of interplate coupling and relative plate motion between subducting and overriding plates in southwest japan using horizontal and vertical deformation rates which were observed at 247 gps observation stations during the period from april 6 1996 to march 20 1998 for this purpose we carried out an inversion analysis of geodetic data incorporating akaike s bayesian information criterion abic as a result strong interplate coupling was found off shikoku and kumanonada regions which corresponds well with the fault regions of the 1946 nankai m 8 1 and the 1944 tonankai m 8 0 earthquakes respectively we also found that interplate coupling becomes weak at depths deeper than about 30 to 40 km beneath the shikoku and kii peninsula the recurrence time of great trench type earthquakes was roughly estimated as 107 years which is consistent with previous research the direction of relative plate motion is oriented n53 w which is close to the direction predicted from the plate motion model on the other hand a large forward slip was found in the hyuganada region off southeast of kyushu since the coseismic displacements associated with the two 1996 hyuganada earthquakes m 6 6 m 6 6 are removed from the gps data this suggests that after slip occurred near the source region and or that kyushu moves southeastward stationarily due to other tectonic forces

correction to evidence for and implications of a bering plate based on geodetic measurements from the aleutians and western alaska 1 in the paper evidence for and implications of a bering plate based on geodetic measurements from the aleutians and western alaska by ryan s cross and jeffrey t freymueller journal of geophysical research 113 b07405 doi 10 1029 2007jb005136 2008 the magnitudes of the estimated angular velocities for the bering plate were off by two orders of magnitude or by a factor of 100 because of a unit conversion error the same error affected all forward and inverse calculations so only the bering plate rotation rate was incorrect the pole location and all other calculations in the paper are correct the correct angular speed for the best model is 0 064 0 033 degrees ma an updated table 3 is given below with the correct rates for all models tested

seismic potential for large and great interplate earthquakes along the chilean and southern peruvian margins of south america a quantitative reappraisal the seismic potential of the chilean and southern peruvian margins of south america is reevaluated to delineate those areas or segments of the margin that may be expected to experience large or great interplate earthquakes within the next 20 years 1984 2004 long term estimates of seismic potential or the conditional probability of recurrence within a specified period of time are based on 1 statistical analysis of historic repeat time data using weibull distributions and 2 deterministic estimates of recurrence times based on the time predictable model of earthquake recurrence both methods emphasize the periodic nature of large and great earthquake recurrence and are compared with estimates of probability based on the assumption of poisson type behavior the estimates of seismic potential presented in this study are long term forecasts only as the temporal resolution or standard deviation of both methods is taken to range from 15 to 25 of the average or estimated repeat time at present the valparaiso region of central chile 32 35 s has a high potential or probability of recurrence in the next 20 years coseismic uplift data associated with previous shocks in 1822 and 1906 suggest that this area may have already started to rerupture in 1971 1973 average repeat times also suggest this area is due for a great shock within the next 20 years flanking segments of the chilean margin coquimbo illapel 30 32 s and talca concepcion 35 38 s presently have poorly constrained but possibly quite high potentials for a series of large or great shocks within the next 20 years in contrast the rupture zone of the great 1960 earthquake 37 46 s has the lowest potential along the margin and is not expected to rerupture in a great earthquake within the next 100 years in the north the seismic potentials of the mollendo arica 17 18 s and arica antofagasta 18 24 s segments which last ruptured during great earthquakes in 1868 and 1877 are also high but poorly constrained

asperity distribution of the 1952 great kamchatka earthquake and its relation to future earthquake potential in kamchatka the 1952 kamchatka earthquake is among the largest earthquakes of this century with an estimated magnitude of m w 9 0 we inverted tide gauge records from japan north america the aleutians and hawaii for the asperity distribution the results show two areas of high slip the average slip is over 3 m giving a seismic moment estimate of 155 x 102onm or m w 8 8 the 20th century seismicity of the 1952 rupture zone shows a strong correlation to the asperity distribution which suggests that the large earthquakes m 7 are controlled by the locations of the asperities and that future large earthquakes will also recur in the asperity regions

on the biannually repeating slow slip events at the ryukyu trench southwestern japan 1 global positioning system data show that about 20 slow slip events occurred during 1997 2007 in the southwestern part of the ryukyu arc japan where large interplate thrust earthquakes are not known to have occurred in spite of relatively fast plate convergence they recur fairly regularly on one patch of the subduction fault which is as deep as 20 40 km and mechanically isolated in an uncoupled subduction zone they have time constants of a month or so and release seismic moment equivalent of mw 6 6 on average this is one of the best recorded sequences of repeating fault slips with enough events for statistical analyses they have fairly constant recurrence interval of 0 5 year but do not show preferred months of occurrence in a year suggesting that they are not controlled by seasonal forcing the correlation between intervals and amounts of fault slip show statistically significant time predictable recurrences there is one significant disruption in the rhythm but the stress perturbations due to nearby earthquakes do not appear to play a significant role this part of the fault might be an altered asperity that used to rupture fast but now slips only slowly because of the increased ambient temperature

deformation across the rupture zone of the 1964 alaska earthquake 1993 1997 a linear array of 15 geodetic monuments was installed in 1993 across the rupture zone of the 1964 alaska earthquake mw 9 2 the array extends from middleton island at the edge of the continental shelf and 80 km from the alaska aleutian trench to north of palmer alaska 380 km from the trench in the approximate direction of pacific north american plate convergence n15 5 w the array was surveyed in june 1993 may 1995 and june 1997 the changes between surveys are a measure of the deformation of the continental margin across the subduction zone in southern alaska measured relative to the interior of the north american plate the horizontal velocities on the outer plate margin are parallel to the direction of plate convergence n15 5 w and reach a maximum 58 mm yr 1 about 150 km from the trench beyond about 300 km from the trench the observed horizontal velocities are small a narrow halfwidth 50 km zone of significant uplift 10 mm yr 1 maximum is observed about 300 km from the trench coinciding roughly with the locus of maximum coseismic subsidence associated with the 1964 alaska earthquake although the deformation is roughly described by the conventional model of deformation at a subduction zone deformation due to virtual back slip on the main thrust zone at the 55 mm yr 1 plate convergence rate a better fit is given with a 65 mm yr 1 virtual back normal slip rate this higher rate is attributed to continued postseismic relaxation the model does not explain the relatively high uplift rate and low n15 5 w velocity observed at middleton island that anomalous motion is attributed to continued thrusting on postulated upward trending splays from the subduction zone beneath the island

two successive slow slip events evidenced in 2009 2010 by a dense gps network in guerrero mexico a large slow slip event sse had been expected for the guerrero gap for 2010 it was actually observed with an onset in july 2009 comparison with the preceding large sses which occurred in 2002 and 2006 highlights both persistent characteristics of the guerrero sses e g the localization of slip in the seismogenic part of the subduction interface and also particularities of the 2009 2010 event namely two distinct slip patches on the fault interface moving consecutively the long gps time series and the density of the gps network provide evidence that the guerrero sses like classical earthquakes have complex features despite having very short and relatively regular repeat times 4 yr guerrero sses appear aperiodic a shorter loading time before the 2009 2010 event than before the 2006 sse seems to produce consistently reduced surface displacements for a group of stations in a core zone