scaling of the critical slip distance for seismic faulting with shear strain in fault zones theoretical and experimentally based laws for seismic faulting contain a critical slip distance1 5 dc which is the slip over which strength breaks down during earthquake nucleation on an earthquake generating fault this distance plays a key role in determining the rupture nucleation dimension6 the amount of premonitory and post seismic slip7 10 and the maximum seismic ground acceleration1 11 in laboratory friction experiments d c has been related to the size of surface contact junctions2 5 12 thus the discrepancy between laboratory measurements of dc 10 5m and values obtained from modelling earthquakes 10 2m has been attributed to differences in roughness between laboratory surfaces and natural faults5 this interpretation predicts a dependence of dc on the particle size of fault gouge2 breccia and wear material but not on shear strain here we present experimental results showing that dc scales with shear strain in simulated fault gouge our data suggest a new physical interpretation for the critical slip distance in which dc is controlled by the thickness of the zone of localized shear strain as gouge zones of mature faults are commonly 102 103 m thick12 17 whereas laboratory gouge layers are 1 10 mm thick our data offer an alternative interpretation of the discrepancy between laboratory and field based estimates of dc

dynamics of izmit earthquake postseismic deformation and loading of the duzce earthquake hypocenter we have developed dynamic finite element models of izmit earthquake postseismic deformation to evaluate whether this deformation is better explained by afterslip via either velocity strengthening frictional slip or linear viscous creep or by distributed linear viscoelastic relaxation of the lower crust we find that velocity strengthening frictional afterslip driven by coseismic shear stress loading can reproduce time dependent global positioning system data better than either linear viscous creep on a vertical shear zone below the rupture or lower crustal viscoelastic relaxation our best frictional afterslip model fits the main features of postseismic slip inversions in particular high slip patches at and below the hypocenter and on the western karadere segment and limited afterslip west of the hersek delta burgmann et al 2002 the model requires a weakly velocity strengthening fault that is either low effective normal stress in the slipping regions or a smaller value for the parameter describing rate dependence of friction a b than is indicated by laboratory experiments our best afterslip model suggests that the coulomb stress at the duzce hypocenter increased by 0 14 mpa 1 4 bars during the izmit earthquake assuming right lateral slip on a surface dipping 50 to the north and by another 0 1 mpa during the 87 days between the izmit and duzce earthquakes in the marmara sea region within about 160 km of the izmit earthquake rupture this model indicates that the coulomb stresses increased by 15 25 of the coseismic amount during the first 300 days after the earthquake three hundred days after the earthquake postseismic contributions to coulomb stressing rate on the maramara region faults had fallen to values equal to or less than the inferred secular stress accumulation rate our estimates of postseismic coulomb stress are highly model dependent in the marmara region the linear viscous shear zone and viscoelastic lower crust models predict greater postseismic coulomb stresses than the frictional afterslip model near field stress and fault zone rheology estimates are sensitive to the earth9s elastic structure when a layered elastic structure is incorporated in our model it yields a coulomb stress of 0 24 mpa at the duzce hypocenter significantly more than the 0 14 mpa estimated from the uniform elastic model because of the higher near field coseismic stresses the layered elastic model requires a higher value of velocity strengthening parameter a b a b times effective normal stress r to produce comparable postseismic slip a b is estimated at 0 4 and 0 2 mpa respectively for the layered and uniform elastic models these results highlight the importance of understanding the earth9s elastic structure and the mechanism for postseismic deformation if we wish to accurately model coseismic and postseismic crustal stresses

the frictional behavior of lizardite and antigorite serpentinites experiments constitutive models and implications for natural faults laboratory studies of the frictional behavior of rocks can provide important information about the strength and sliding stability of natural faults we have conducted friction experiments on antigorite and lizardite serpentinites rocks common to both continental and oceanic crustal faults we conducted both velocity step tests and timed hold tests on bare surfaces and gouge layers of serpentinite at room temperature we find that the coefficient of friction of lizardite serpentinite is quite low 0 15 0 35 and could explain the apparent low stresses observed on crustal transform faults while that of antigorite serpentinite is comparable to other crustal rocks 0 50 0 85 the frictional behavior of both types of serpentinite is well described by a two mechanism model combining state variable dominated behavior at high slip velocities and flow dominated behavior at low velocities the two mechanism model is supported by data from velocity step tests and timed hold tests the low velocity behavior of serpentinite is strongly rate strengthening and should result in stable fault creep on natural faults containing either antigorite or lizardite serpentinite

interseismic coupling and asperity distribution along the kamchatka subduction zone 1 gps measurements of interseismic horizontal surface velocities reveal the degree of kinematic coupling of the plate boundary thrust along the kamchatka subduction zone from about 51 degrees to 57 degrees n latitude inversions for the distribution of aseismic slip rate along the similar to 15 degrees nw dipping underthrust suggest a nonslipping plate interface in southern kamchatka above similar to 50 km depth along the segment that ruptured in the m w 9 1952 earthquake north of similar to 53 degrees n the subduction interface experiences significant aseismic slip consistent with the lower seismic moment release in m 8 5 earthquakes along this portion of the subduction zone the gps velocities are consistent with a boundary element forward model in which historic earthquake rupture zones are represented as locked asperities surrounded by a zero shear stress subduction interface loaded by plate convergence models in which the complete rupture zones of historic earthquakes are considered locked greatly overpredict the degree of kinematic coupling reducing the area of the locked model asperities to the central 25 area of historic rupture zones fits the data well suggesting that large earthquakes involve small fully locked core asperities surrounded by conditionally stable portions of the plate interface areas of low aseismic slip rate appear to be roughly correlated with areas of low isostatic gravity anomalies over offshore forearc basins while less coupled portions of the kamchatka subduction zone coincide with high gravity anomalies offshore of two peninsulas possibly related to the subduction of the emperor meji seamount chain and the kruzenstern fracture zone

the 1989 loma prieta earthquake imaged from inversion of geodetic data we invert geodetic measurements of coseismic deformation from the 1989 ms7 1 loma prieta earthquake to determine the geometry of the fault and the distribution of slip on the fault plane the data include electronic distance measurements global positioning system and very long baseline interferometry vectors and elevation changes derived from spirit leveling the fault is modeled as a rectangular dislocation surface in a homogeneous elastic half space first we assume that the slip on the fault is uniform and estimate the position orientation and size of the fault plane using a nonlinear quasi newton algorithm the best fitting dislocation strikes n48 4 w and dips 76 9 sw consistent with the trend of the aftershock zone and moment tensor solutions bootstrap resampling of the data is used to graphically illustrate the uncertainty in the location of the rupture plane the 95 confidence envelope overlaps the aftershock zone arguing that there is not a significant discrepancy between the geodetic data and the aftershock locations second we estimate the slip distribution using the best fitting uniform slip fault orientation but increase the fault length to 40 km and the downdip width to 18 km the fault is divided into 162 subfaults 18 along strike and 9 along dip each subfault is allowed to have constant right lateral and reverse components of slip we then solve for the slip on each subfault that minimizes a linear combination of the norm of the weighted data residual and the roughness of the slip distribution the smoothing parameter which determines the relative weight put on fitting the data versus smoothing the slip distribution is chosen by cross validation simulations indicate that cross validation estimates of the smoothing parameter are nearly optimal the preferred slip distribution is very heterogeneous with maximum strike slip and dip slip of about 5 and 8 m respectively located roughly 10 km north of the hypocenter there is insignificant dip slip in the southeastern most part of the fault causing the rake to vary from nearly pure right lateral in the southeast to oblique right reverse in the northwest the change in rake is consistent with a uniform stress field if the fault dip increases by about 10 toward the southeast as indicated by the aftershock locations there was little slip above 4 km depth consistent with the observation that there was little if any surface rupture

displacement across the cholame segment of the san andreas fault between 1855 and 1893 from cadastral surveys changes since 1855 in reported section line lengths and positions of survey monuments that span the san andreas fault saf were used to measure displacement interpreted to be from the 1857 fort tejon earthquake in south central california in 1855 1856 james e freeman established township and range lines across the saf between rancho cholame and the northern carrizo plain at least 26 1 mile sections lines spanned the saf in the area between present day california highways 46 and 58 each section line was marked by monuments at the midpoint and endpoints section lines across portions of the saf were resurveyed in 1893 by j m gore we projected changes in line length onto the fault zone to measure displacement the measurements indicate right lateral displacement of 16 2 6 0 m across the fault zone the resulting tectonic displacement exceeds the maximum reported geomorphic offsets 6 7 m attributed to the 1857 earthquake along the cholame segment although we recognize great uncertainties in the accuracy of our small historical data set we tentatively conclude that total displacement in the 1857 earthquake along the saf over this 2 km wide aperture was significantly greater than the 3 to 6 m slip previously reported for the cholame segment from narrower aperture geomorphic and trenching studies these differences may be compatible if slip along the fault increases down dip rapidly from 3 6 m at the surface to 20 m within several hundred meters of the surface our inference of high slip along this portion of the cholame segment in 1857 is at odds with most rupture models of the central saf and suggests that geomorphic offsets may not represent total displacement across the fault zone

how similar were the 1934 and 1966 parkfield earthquakes bakun and mcevilly 1984 showed that surface waves from the 1934 and 1966 parkfield earthquakes are remarkably similar this observation together with other seismic and geologic data led to the forecast of a repeat of a characteristic parkfield earthquake by 1993 in this paper we model near field geodetic measurements collected before and after the 1934 and 1966 parkfield earthquakes the slip in 1934 on the northwestern half of the rupture is poorly constrained due to the limited station coverage in this part of the rupture near the hypocenter the geodetic measurements permit the two earthquakes to have the same slip distribution on the other hand the data clearly show that the 1966 earthquake ruptured through the right step in the surface trace of the fault while the 1934 earthquake stopped northwest of the step if we assume only that the slip distribution is to some degree smooth we find that the centroid of the 1934 slip distribution could be as much as 10 km northwest of the centroid of the 1966 slip the data are consistent with but do not demand the largest slip in 1934 occurring in a region of low slip in 1966 the geodetically determined moments of the two earthquakes from smooth inversions are indistinguishable m0 4 4 0 4 1018 n m we also examine inversions in which we assume that the two earthquakes start identically and estimate how far down the fault the two earthquakes could have remained the same we find that the 1934 event could have had the same slip as in 1966 up to the fault step the 1934 earthquake must have stopped at the step whereas the 1966 event slipped southeast of the step in this quasi characteristic model m0 of the 1934 quake is only 60 of that in 1966 the difference presumably occurring as afterslip in 1966 if the 1934 geodetic moment was indeed less than in 1966 and the loading rate was constant this observation could explain the early occurrence of the 1934 earthquake

fault model for preseismic deformation at parkfield california we construct an earthquake instability model to estimate precursory faulting and ground deformation before the next moderate m 5 5 6 earthquake on the san andreas fault near parkfield california the quasi static model simulates fault slip fault shear stress and ground deformation for all stages of repeated earthquake cycles unstable slip which is the analog of a moderate parkfield mainshock is caused by overall failure of a postulated strong area or patch of the fault zone the brittle patch and surrounding weaker viscous fault are defined by the sign of a spatially varying coefficient of a slip rate dependent fault law stable failure of the patch leading up to mainshock failure causes slip rate to increase at depth amplitudes and timescales of the resulting preseismic deformation anomalies are found for the current earthquake cycle at parkfield starting just after the 1966 mainshock in two ways in the first way we vary parameter values in a sequence of simulations so as to find the simulation giving best agreement with locations moments and recurrence times of past moderate earthquakes and also with fault creep and trilateration line length changes since the 1966 mainshock in the second way we assign values of most parameters from laboratory friction experiments and a temperature depth profile inferred from heat flow data overall agreement between model results and observations is comparable for the two methods in all simulations preseismic deformation anomalies arise from slip rate increase near the model earthquake focus and start several years or less before instability preseismic anomalies in surface fault creep and line length are always too small to detect in current measurements however for some simulations constrained mainly by field data the predicted anomalies in borehole dilatation are large enough to detect

composite methodology for interpreting sediment transport pathways from spatial trends in grain size a case study of the lithuanian coast to achieve a more robust interpretation of sediment conditions and transport based on grain size this study combines the perspectives of two different interpretation techniques that have been developed separately and applied in the literature i grain size trend analysis interprets changes between interrelated sampling sites assuming that sediment in the direction of transport should become either coarser better sorted and more positively skewed or finer better sorted and more negatively skewed and ii the population anomalies method which estimates the balance between erosion and accumulation processes at each sampling site based on individual site deviations compared with average values for grain size parameters in the area of interest the simultaneous use of both approaches enables sedimentological conditions and transport alternatives to be distinguished this improvement is necessary because site specific changes and general textural trends provide information that complements the strengths and weaknesses of each perspective the methods are implemented here using two dimensional geographic information system tools and illustrated for the lithuanian coast grain size characteristics of 712 surface samples of sandy sediments are used to interpret sediment transport pathways and predominant sedimentological conditions in the lithuanian coastal zone in general coast parallel sediment transport dominates the entire investigation area although wave induced movement perpendicular to the coastline is inferred in the shallow nearshore zone the deepest areas offshore are characterized by sea floor erosion in the north whereas an accumulation zone occurs in the relatively deep central part of the study area

frictional constraints on crustal faulting we consider how variations in fault frictional properties affect the phenomenology of earthquake faulting in particular we propose that lateral variations in fault friction produce the marked heterogeneity of slip observed in large earthquakes we model these variations using a rate and state dependent friction law where we differentiate velocity weakening behavior into two fields the strong seismic field is very velocity weakening and the weak seismic field is slightly velocity weakening similarly we differentiate velocity strengthening behavior into two fields the compliant field is slightly velocity strengthening and the viscous field is very velocity strengthening the strong seismic field comprises the seismic slip concentrations or asperities the two intermediate fields weak seismic and compliant have frictional velocity dependences that are close to velocity neutral these fields modulate both the tectonic loading and the dynamic rupture process during the interseismic period the weak seismic and compliant regions slip aseismically while the strong seismic regions remain locked evolving into stress concentrations that fail only in main shocks the weak seismic areas exhibit most of the interseismic activity and aftershocks but can also creep seismically this mixed frictional behavior can be obtained from a sufficiently heterogeneous distribution of the critical slip distance the model also provides a mechanism for rupture arrest dynamic rupture fronts decelerate as they penetrate into unloaded complaint or weak seismic areas producing broad areas of accelerated afterslip aftershocks occur on both the weak seismic and compliant areas around a fault but most of the stress is diffused through aseismic slip rapid afterslip on these peripheral areas can also produce aftershocks within the main shock rupture area by reloading weak fault areas that slipped in the main shock and then healed we test this frictional model by comparing the seismicity and the coseismic slip for the 1966 parkfield 1979 coyote lake and 1984 morgan hill earthquakes the interevent seismicity and aftershocks appear to occur on fault areas outside the regions of significant slip these regions are interpreted as either weak seismic or compliant depending on whether or not they manifest interevent seismicity

mantle flow beneath a continental strike slip fault postseismic deformation after the 1999 hector mine earthquake two recent large earthquakes in the mojave desert california the magnitude 7 3 1992 landers and magnitude 7 1 1999 hector mine earthquakes have each been followed by elevated crustal strain rates over periods of months and years geodetic data collected after the hector mine earthquake exhibit a temporally decaying horizontal velocity field and a quadrant uplift pattern opposite to that expected for localized shear beneath the earthquake rupture we interpret the origin of this accelerated crustal deformation to be vigorous flow in the upper mantle in response to the stress changes generated by the earthquake our results suggest that transient flow in the upper mantle is a fundamental component of the earthquake cycle and that the lower crust is a coherent stress guide coupling the upper crust with the upper mantle

controls of shear zone rheology and tectonic loading on postseismic creep 1 postseismic deformation is well documented in geodetic data collected in the aftermath of large earthquakes in the postseismic time interval gps is most sensitive to creep in the lower crust or upper mantle activated by earthquake generated stress perturbations in these regions deformation may be localized on an aseismic frictional surface or on a ductile shear zone these two hypotheses imply specific rheologies and therefore time dependence of postseismic creep hence postseismic creep constitutes a potential probe into the rheology of aseismic regions of the lithosphere i present a simple shear zone model of postseismic creep in which the rheology of the creeping element can be varied in the absence of tectonic loading during the postseismic time interval the displacement history of the shear zone obeying a power law rheology with stress exponent n follows an analytical relaxation curve parameterized by 1 n for a frictional surface postseismic creep follows the same relaxation law in the limit 1 n 0 a rough estimate of the apparent stress exponent can be obtained from continuous gps records application to data collected after the 1994 sanriku earthquake yields 1 n 0 1 which is consistent with dislocation creep mechanisms however the records of two other subduction zone events the 2001 peru event and the 1997 kronotski earthquake and a continental strike slip earthquake the 1999 izmit earthquake require negative 1 n rather than characterizing the shear zone rheology these negative exponents indicate that reloading of the shear zone by tectonic forces is important numerical simulations of postseismic deformation with nonnegligible reloading produce curves that are well fit by the generalized relaxation law with 1 n 0 although the actual stress exponent of the rheology is positive while this prevents rheology from being tightly constrained by the studied gps records it indicates that reloading is important in the postseismic time interval in other words the stress perturbation induced by an earthquake is comparable to the stress supported by ductile shear zones in the interseismic period

rapid afterslip following the 1999 chi chi taiwan earthquake 1 postseismic displacements of as much as 14 cm were recorded by gps measurements in the 3 months following the mw 7 6 1999 chi chi taiwan earthquake data from 35 continuous and 90 campaign surveyed stations which show continued east over west thrusting are analyzed to estimate the postseismic slip distribution and fault geometry assuming the shallow fault dips 24 e as determined by numerous studies of the mainshock we invert for the deeper fault structure our results show that the fault dip shallows with depth below the hypocenter merging into a nearly horizontal decollement at a depth of 8 12 km the afterslip distribution shows a maximum slip of 25 cm in the hypocentral region at 7 12 km depth as well as significant slip on the lower decollement afterslip is notably absent in the region of maximum coseismic slip consistent with the afterslip being driven by the mainshock stress change

fracture related hydrothermal alteration of metagranitic rock and associated changes in mineralogy geochemistry and degree of oxidation a case study at forsmark central sweden red staining of rocks due to fluid rock interaction during hydrothermal circulation in fractures is a common feature in crystalline sequences in this study red stained metagranitic rock adjacent to fractures in forsmark central sweden has been studied with emphasis on the mineral reactions and associated element mobility occurring during the alteration the main mineral reactions associated with the hydrothermal alteration are an almost complete saussuritization of plagioclase accompanied by total chloritization of biotite magnetite has been partly replaced by hematite whereas quartz and k feldspar were relatively unaffected by the hydrothermal alteration we show that redistribution of elements on the whole rock scale was very limited and is mainly manifested by enrichment of na2o and volatiles and depletion of cao feo and sio2 in the red stained rock however on the microscale element redistribution was more extensive with both intragranular and intergranular migration of e g ca k na al si fe ba cs rb sr ti and rees the altered rock shows a shift towards higher total oxidation factors but the change is smaller than 1 and the red staining of the rock is due to hematite dissemination rather than a significant oxidation of the rock an increase in the connected porosity is also observed in the altered rock

acidity salinity diagrams application to greisen and porphyry deposits to a first approximation alteration minerals in greisen and related fluorine rich porphyry deposits lie in the system k 2 o al 2 o 3 sio 2 h 2 o f 2 o sub 1 equilibria in this model system can be depicted on quartz and fluid saturated chemical potential diagrams whose axes are mu hf acidity where mu hf mu hcl mu sub fcl sub 1 and mu kf salinity where mu kf mu nacl mu sub kna sub 1 mu sub fcl sub 1 advantages of this approach are that it reflects the fact that the anion f unlike cl is incorporated in greisen minerals mainly topaz fluorite and micas and that mineral stabilities can be correlated with possible ore forming processes the most important of these processes is probably vapor phase separation from an aqueous brine or magma first or second boiling fluid inclusion studies have shown that boiling occurs in all porphyry and many but not all greisen deposits vapor phase separation from a magma pneumatolysis must similarly be responsible for the formation of greisenlike mineral assemblages in miarolitic topaz rhyolite lava flows and is presumably also responsible for the formation of gem pockets in more deeply seated pegmatites and granites the result of boiling is an increase in mu hf and a decrease in mu kf in the vapor phase and the opposite in the residual brine or magma in deep greisen veins the muscovite stability field is encountered between the k feldspar and topaz fields whereas in f rich relatively shallow porphyry deposits such as henderson colorado boiling causes aqueous fluids to pass directly from the k feldspar ore zone to the overlying topaz magnetite zone muscovite or f bearing mn fe garnet is only encountered farther out as the fluids are condensed neutralized and diluted by cooler meteoric waters when ca fe mn be w o 2 s 2 and co 2 are added to the greisen model system scheelite is shown to transform to wolframite with increasing mu hf and beryl to phenakite with increasing mu hf or mu kf biotite transforms to magnetite hematite siderite pyrite chlorite or fayalite beyond the k feldspar field its stability is enhanced by high mu hf and chlorite cordierite or mn fe garnet transform to an mn fe carbonate oxide or sulfide or biotite beyond the al silicate field the ca content of plagioclase coexisting with fluorite decreases with an increase in either mu hf or mu kf and thus provides an indicator of total fluorine in both acid and neutral species

the resolving power of coseismic surface displacement data for fault slip distribution at depth 1 the spatial slip distribution of the august 17 1999 izmit turkey earthquake has previously been determined from both geodetic and seismological data though the models derived agree on a broad scale they are significantly different in detail these differences could be due to the inversion techniques applied and or additional constraints implemented and or be due to poor resolution it is also conceivable that the relative agreement at larger scales results in part from a resolution artifact common to all models to investigate this we perform a resolution analysis of fault slip models based on the inversion of surface displacement data assuming the theory of elastic dislocations in a half space and adopting a parameterization for which model predictions are capable of fitting the spatial variations of the data the inverse problem proves to be intrinsically ill conditioned

coseismic and initial postseismic deformation from the 2004 parkfield california earthquake observed by global positioning system electronic distance meter creepmeters and borehole strainmeters global positioning system gps electronic distance meter creepmeter and strainmeter measurements spanning the m 6 0 parkfield california earthquake are examined using these data from 100 sec through 9 months following the mainshock the omori s law with rate inversely related to time 1 t p and p ranging between 0 7 and 1 3 characterizes the time dependent deformation during the postseismic period these results are consistent with creep models for elastic solids with an accurate function of postseismic response the coseismic displacements can be estimated from the high rate 1 min sampling gps and the coseismic displacements are approximately 75 of those estimated from the daily solutions consequently fault slip models using daily solutions overestimate coseismic slip in addition at 2 months and at 8 months following the mainshock postseismic displacements are modeled as slip on the san andreas fault with a lower bound on the moment exceeding that of the coseismic moment online material data description and supplementary figures tables and data used in models and time series analysis

crustal earthquake instability in relation to the depth variation of frictional slip properties recent stability studies using constitutive relations of the type found by dieterich ruina and others to describe frictional slip of rocks in the laboratory have provided a new explanation of the depth cutoff of shallow crustal earthquakes the class of friction laws discussed has the property that the sliding stress depends on normal stress temperature slip rate and slip history for sliding at a fixed slip rate v and fixed environment e g normal stress temperature etc the shear strength evolves toward a steady state value ss v stability analysis show that for d ss v dv 0 velocity strengthening implies stable steady state sliding at least for a broad class of constitutive laws more fully described in the paper experiments by dieterich and by tullis and weeks on westerly granite with mature sliding surfaces indicate that d ss v dv is negative at room temperature whereas higher temperature experiments by stesky show that d ss v dv becomes positive above approximately 300 c therefore in the case of the earth where temperature increases with depth the above observations seem to suggest that the depth cutoff of crustal earthquake activity can be understood in terms of the variation of the frictional response with depth from a regime with d ss v dv 0 this is not inconsistent with but rather refines the suggestion by sibson and others that the depth cutoff is due to a transition from brittle friction to ductile flow further our results show definitively that the shallow depth confinement of seismicity is compatible with a model in which deformation is localized to a fault zone extending well below the seismogenic depth the depth confinement does not require a model showing transition to a zone of broadly distributed creep flow beneath the seismogenic zone following mavko a two dimensional quasi static strike slip fault model is analyzed but using different numerical procedures and a depth variation of frictional properties based on the laboratory data mentioned above and the lachenbruch sass depth variation of temperature for the san andreas fault the resulting predictions of such features as the confinement of crustal earthquakes to shallow depths the development of locked patches the recurrence time for the seismic cycle the seismic stress drop and displacement etc are generally in agreement with the observed characteristics of large scale strike slip earthquakes along the san andreas fault calculations based on the laboratory data predict for example that stick slip nucleates around 5 7 km that large seismic motion occurs around the nucleation depth and above but diminishes gradually to zero at 13 15 km depths that rapid postseismic creep occurs over another 3 4 km depth and that at greater depths steady slip consistent with the average plate velocity is only modestly perturbed by the earthquakes occurring above the most uncertain parameter is the slip weakening distance l for evolution of fault surface state we illustrate how features of the predicted earthquake cycles vary with l over the range for which calculations are feasible

clustering and periodic recurrence of microearthquakes on the san andreas fault at parkfield california the san andreas fault at parkfield california apparently late in an interval between repeating magnitude 6 earthquakes is yielding to tectonic loading partly by seismic slip concentrated in a relatively sparse distribution of small clusters 20 meter radius of microearthquakes within these clusters which account for 63 of the earthquakes in a 1987 92 study interval virtually identical small earthquakes occurred with a regularity that can be described by the statistical model used previously in forecasting large characteristic earthquakes sympathetic occurrence of microearthquakes in nearby clusters was observed within a range of about 200 meters at communication speeds of 10 to 100 centimeters per second the rate of earthquake occurrence particularly at depth increased significantly during the study period but the fraction of earthquakes that were cluster members decreased

slip deficit on the san andreas fault at parkfield california as revealed by inversion of geodetic data a network of geodetic lines spanning the san andreas fault near the rupture zone of the 1966 parkfield california earthquake magnitude m 6 has been repeatedly surveyed since 1959 in the study reported here the average rates of line length change since 1966 were inverted to determine the distribution of interseismic slip rate on the fault these results indicate that the parkfield rupture surface has not slipped significantly since 1966 comparison of the geodetically determined seismic moment of the 1966 earthquake with the interseismic slip deficit rate suggests that the strain released by the latest shock will most likely be restored between 1984 and 1989 although this may not occur until 1995 these results lend independent support to the earlier forecast of an m 6 earthquake near parkfield within 5 years of 1988

stress transfer and strain rate variations during the seismic cycle 1 the balance of forces implies stress transfers during the seismic cycle between the elastobrittle upper crust and the viscoelastic lower crust this could induce observable time variations of crustal straining in the interseismic period we simulate these variations using a one dimensional system of springs sliders and dashpot loaded by a constant force the seismogenic zone and the zone of afterslip below are modeled from rate and state friction the ductile deeper fault zone is modeled from a viscous slider with newtonian viscosity n the force per unit length f must exceed a critical value fc to overcome friction resistance of the fault system this simple system produces periodic earthquakes the recurrence period tcycle and the duration of the postseismic relaxation phase which is driven dominantly by afterslip then both scale linearly with n between two earthquakes interseismic strain buildup across the whole system is nonstationary with the convergence rates vi just after each earthquake being systematically higher than the value vf at the end of the interseismic period we show

high rate real time gps network at parkfield utility for detecting fault slip and seismic displacements 1 a network of 13 continuous gps stations near parkfield california has been converted from 30 second to 1 second sampling with positions of the stations estimated in real time relative to a master station most stations are near the trace of the san andreas fault which exhibits creep the noise spectra of the instantaneous 1 hz positions show flicker noise at high frequencies and change to frequency independence at low frequencies the change in character occurs between 6 to 8 hours our analysis indicates that 1 second sampled gps can estimate horizontal displacements of order 6 mm at the 99 confidence level from a few seconds to a few hours high frequency gps can augment existing measurements in capturing large creep events and postseismic slip that would exceed the range of existing creepmeters and can detect large seismic displacements

space time distribution of afterslip following the 2003 tokachi oki earthquake implications for variations in fault zone frictional properties 1 gps time series following the september 25 2003 ut tokachi oki earthquake m w 8 0 reveal significant deformation we use the network inversion filter to invert for the spatial and temporal evolution of afterslip in the 30 days following the earthquake afterslip is concentrated adjacent to the coseismic rupture zone between the 2003 rupture and the inferred source regions of the 1968 tokachi oki and the 1973 nemuro oki earthquakes the inversion shows a rapid decay of slip rate in the 2003 rupture zone with slower deceleration in the surrounding regions the stress velocity paths for the afterslip regions approximately follow d d in v 0 6 mpa suggestive of steady state velocity strengthening friction the complementary spatial pattern of coseismic rupture and afterslip may indicate along strike spatial variations of frictional properties although other interpretations can not be ruled out

using 1 hz gps data to measure deformations caused by the denali fault earthquake the 3 november 2002 moment magnitude 7 9 denali fault earthquake generated large permanent surface displacements in alaska and large amplitude surface waves throughout western north america we find good agreement between strong ground motion records integrated to displacement and 1 hertz global positioning system gps position estimates collected 140 kilometers from the earthquake epicenter one hertz gps receivers also detected seismic surface waves 750 to 3800 kilometers from the epicenter whereas these waves saturated many of the seismicinstruments in the same region high frequency gps increases the dynamic range and frequency bandwidth of ground motion observations providing another tool for studying earthquake processes

frictional slip of granite at hydrothermal conditions sliding on faults in much of the continental crust likely occurs at hydrothermal conditions i e at elevated temperature and elevated pressure of aqueous pore fluids yet there have been few relevant laboratory studies to measure the strength sliding behavior and friction constitutive properties of faults at hydrothermal conditions we slid laboratory granite faults containing a layer of granite powder simulated gouge velocity stepping experiments were performed at temperatures of 23 to 600 c pore fluid pressures ph2o of 0 dry and 100 mpa wet effective normal stress of 400 mpa and sliding velocities v of 0 01 to 1 m s 0 32 to 32 m yr conditions were similar to those in earlier tests on dry granite to 845 c by lockner et al 1986 the mechanical results define two regimes the first regime includes dry granite up to at least 845 and wet granite below 250 c in this regime the coefficient of friction is high 0 7 to 0 8 and depends only modestly on temperature slip rate and ph2o the second regime includes wet granite above 350 c in this regime friction decreases considerably with increasing temperature temperature weakening and with decreasing slip rate velocity strengthening these regimes correspond well to those identified in sliding tests on ultrafine quartz we infer that one or more fluid assisted deformation mechanisms are activated in the second hydrothermal regime and operate concurrently with cataclastic flow slip in the first cool and or dry regime is characterized by pervasive shearing and particle size reduction slip in the second hot and wet regime is localized primarily onto narrow shear bands adjacent to the gouge rock interfaces weakness of these boundary shears may result either from an abundance of phyllosilicates preferentially aligned for easy dislocation glide or from a dependence of strength on gouge particle size major features of the granite data set can be fit reasonably well by a rate and temperature dependent three regime friction constitutive model chester this issue we extrapolate the experimental data and model fit in order to estimate steady state shear strength versus depth along natural slipping faults for sliding rates as low as 31 mm yr we do this for two end member cases in the first case pore pressure is assumed hydrostatic at all depths shallow crustal strength in this case is similar to that calculated in previous work from room temperature friction data while at depths below about 9 13 km depending on slip rate strength becomes less sensitive to depth but sensitive to slip rate in the second case pore pressure is assumed to be near lithostatic at depths below 5 km strength is low at all depths in this case 20 mpa in agreement with observations of weak faults such as the san andreas the predicted depth of transition from velocity weakening to velocity strengthening lies at about 13 km depth for a slip rate of 31 mm yr in rough agreement with the seismic aseismic transition depth observed on mature continental faults these results highlight the importance of fluid assisted deformation processes active in faults at depth and the need for laboratory studies on the roles of additional factors such as fluid chemistry large displacements higher concentrations of phyllosilicates and time dependent fault healing

frictional properties on the san andreas fault near parkfield california inferred from models of afterslip following the 2004 earthquake the abundance of geodetic and seismic data recording postseismic deformation following the 2004 parkfield earthquake provides an unprecedented opportunity to resolve frictional properties on the parkfield section of the san andreas fault the parkfield segment is a transition between the locked section to the southeast that last ruptured in the 1857 fort tejon earthquake and the creeping section to the northwest we develop three dimensional rate and state dependent friction models of afterslip following the 2004 earthquake to investigate the frictional behavior of the fault it is assumed that the coseismic rupture occurred on an area of the fault surrounded by aseismic creep that accelerated after the earthquake we estimate the distribution of coseismic slip afterslip and rate state frictional parameters by inverting a two step slip model in the model we 1 estimate the coseismic slip distribution from 1 hz global positioning system gps data and 2 use the corresponding coseismic shear stress change on the fault as input into a numerical afterslip model governed by rate state friction we find the rate state frictional parameter a b an indicator of frictional stability is in the range 10 4 10 3 at 50 mpa normal stress which is near the transition from potentially unstable negative a b to nominally stable positive a b friction the estimate of a b values falls within a wide range of experimental values reported for serpentinite which crops out along the san andreas fault zone the critical slip distance d c which characterizes the distance over which strength breaks down during a slip event is in the range 0 01 0 1 m consistent with seismic estimates and a fault gouge thickness of 1 10 m the afterslip model reproduces most features observed in the gps time series data including high surface velocities in the first few months after the earthquake and lower rates at later times as well as the cumulative postseismic displacement the model tends to underpredict the displacement data at later times suggesting that perhaps the modeled afterslip period ends too quickly or an unmodeled deformation process dominates the signal at later times

aseismic slip transients emerge spontaneously in three dimensional rate and state modeling of subduction earthquake sequences 1 to investigate the possible physical mechanisms of recently observed aseismic slip events in the cascadia japan and mexico subduction zones we apply a dieterich ruina rate and state friction law to a three dimensional model of a shallow subduction fault that is loaded by imposed steady plate slip rate far downdip along the thrust interface friction properties are temperature and hence depth dependent such that sliding is stable at depths below about 30 km the system is perturbed into a significantly nonuniform slip mode along strike by introducing small along strike variations in the constitutive parameters a and a b in addition to large heterogeneous earthquake slip at seismogenic depths and associated postseismic transients we found that slip events which have clearly aseismic slip rates emerge spontaneously around the downdip end of the seismogenic zone both transients which start well after a seismic event and those which are triggered by other transients are observed from the simulations the slip velocity depth range and sometimes along strike migration speed of simulated transients are similar to the observations from natural subduction zones unstable stable transitional friction properties near the downdip end of the seismogenic zone are suggested to be an ingredient allowing such transients simulated transients can weaken the locking intensity of the updip seismogenic zone while enhancing that of the transition zone spatial temporal correlation of aseismic transients and nearby seismicity in the guerrero mexico area suggests that transients may signal a period of increased probability for nucleating their high frequency counterparts as damaging subduction thrust events

hydrothermal fluids responsible for the formation of precious minerals in the nigerian younger granite province preliminary investigations in the younger granite province of nigeria have revealed that precious and semi precious minerals like rubies sapphires emeralds aquamarine zircon and fluorite can be found in the region the gem minerals are shown to have been produced either by direct deposition along fissures veins and greisens by hydrothermal fluids or as a result of hydrothermal fluids reacting with wall rocks these wall rocks are either biotite granites from which the hydrothermal fluids originated or basement rocks or any other rocks which the biotite granites intrude and their residual hydrothermal fluids have invaded the hydrothermal fluids appear to have been rich in alkalis na k etc rare elements be zr f ree etc and siliceous as these fluids rose through fractures and channel ways through the rocks they either deposited the gem minerals in the fractures at the appropriate stability conditions or reacted with the wall rocks producing the gem minerals at the expense of elements like ca and a1 in the minerals of these rocks

time dependent distributed afterslip on and deep below the izmit earthquake rupture surface deformation transients measured with the global positioning system during the 87 days between the 17 august 1999 izmit earthquake and the 12 november 1999 duzce earthquake indicate rapidly decaying aseismic fault slip on and well below the coseismic rupture elastic model inversions for time dependent distributed fault slip using a network inversion filter approach show that afterslip was highest between and below the regions of maximum coseismic slip and propa gated downward to or even below the base of the crust maximum afterslip rates decayed from greater than 2 m yr immediately after the i zmit earthquake to about 1 2 m yr just prior to the duzce earthquake maximum afterslip occurred below the eastern karadere rupture segment and near the i zmit hypocenter afterslip in the upper 16 km decayed more rapidly than that below the seismogenic zone these observations are consistent with a phase of rapid aseismic fault slip concentrated near the base of the seismogenic zone continued loading from the rapid deep afterslip along the eastern rupture zone is a plausible mechanism that helped trigger the nearby mw 7 2 12 november duzce earthquake

poroelastic rebound along the landers 1992 earthquake surface rupture maps of surface displacement following the 1992 landers california earthquake generated by interferometric processing of ers 1 synthetic aperture radar sar images reveal effects of various postseismic deformation processes along the 1992 surface rupture the large scale pattern of the postseismic displacement field includes large lobes mostly visible on the west side of the fault comparable in shape with the lobes observed in the coseismic displacement field this pattern and the steep displacement gradient observed near the emerson camp rock fault cannot be simply explained by afterslip on deep sections of the 1992 rupture models show that horizontal slip occurring on a buried dislocation in a poisson s material produces a characteristic quadripole pattern in the surface displacement field with several centimeters of vertical motion at distances of 10 20 km from the fault yet this pattern is not observed in the postseismic interferograms as previously proposed to explain local strain in the fault step overs peltzer et al 1996b we argue that poroelastic rebound caused by pore fluid flow may also occur over greater distances from the fault compensating the vertical ground shift produced by fault afterslip such a rebound is explained by the gradual change of the crustal rocks poisson s ratio value from undrained coseismic to drained postseismic conditions as pore pressure gradients produced by the earthquake dissipate using the poisson s ratio values of 0 27 and 0 31 for the drained and undrained crustal rocks respectively elastic dislocation models show that the combined contributions of afterslip on deep sections of the fault and poroelastic rebound can account for the range change observed in the sar data and the horizontal displacement measured at global positioning system gps sites along a 60 km long transect across the emerson fault savage and svarc 1997 using a detailed surface slip distribution on the homestead valley kickapoo and johnson valley faults we modeled the poroelastic rebound in the homestead valley pull apart a poisson s ratio value of 0 35 for the undrained gouge rocks in the fault zone is required to account for the observed surface uplift in the 3 5 years following the earthquake this large value implies a seismic velocity ratio vp vs of 2 1 consistent with the observed low vs values of fault zone guided waves at shallow depth li et al 1997 the sar data also reveal postseismic creep along shallow patches of the eureka peak and burnt mountain faults with a characteristic decay time of 0 8 years coseismic dilatant hardening locking process followed by post seismic pore pressure controlled fault creep provide a plausible mechanism to account for the decay time of the observed slip rate along this section of the fault

non pegmatitic deposits of beryllium mineralogy geology phase equilibria and origin non pegmatitic occurrences of be minerals constitute a diverse set of geologic environments of considerable mineralogical and petrological interest they currently provide the majority of the world s be ore and emeralds and they contain the greatest resource of these commodities of the approximately 100 be minerals known see chapter 1 by grew appendix a most occur in hydrothermal deposits or non pegmatitic igneous rocks where their distribution varies systematically with the setting and origin table 1 fig 1 view this table table 1 beryllium minerals in non pegmatitic deposits formulas use and occurrence 1 figure 1 chemography of the principal solid phases in the beo al2o3 sio2 h2o f2o 1 bash system with the projected positions of helvite group and alkali be silicates also shown are generalized fields for some of the major types natural of occurrences cf table 1 fig 4 see text for discussion beryllium minerals are best known from geologic systems associated with felsic magmatism they also occur in a variety of settings that lack evident igneous associations environments range from the surface to the deep crust and host rocks range from feldspathic to carbonate to ultramafic in composition genetically related igneous rocks are felsic and share low calcium and high f contents but are diverse in composition setting and origin compositions range from strongly peraluminous to peralkaline and can be silica undersaturated beryllium minerals also occur in metamorphic and basinal environments and are redistributed by surface processes table 2 summarizes the types and significance of major groups of occurrences by their lithologic associations figure 2 shows the global distribution of some important examples and regional belts for most types at least one example has been described in some detail and can be used to help evaluate general patterns however

coseismic and postseismic fault slip for the 17 august 1999 m 7 5 izmit turkey earthquake we use global positioning system gps observations and elastic half space models to estimate the distribution of coseismic and postseismic slip along the izmit earthquake rupture our results indicate that large coseismic slip reaching 5 7 meters is confined to the upper 10 kilometers of the crust correlates with structurally distinct fault segments and is relatively low near the hypocenter continued surface deformation during the first 75 days after the earthquake indicates an aseismic fault slip of as much as 0 43 meters on and below the coseismic rupture these observations are consistent with a transition from unstable episodic large earthquakes to stable fault creep sliding at the base of the seismogenic zone

evidence of power law flow in the mojave desert mantle studies of the earth s response to large earthquakes can be viewed as large rock deformation experiments in which sudden stress changes induce viscous flow in the lower crust and upper mantle that lead to observable postseismic surface deformation laboratory experiments suggest that viscous flow of deforming hot lithospheric rocks is characterized by a power law in which strain rate is proportional to stress raised to a power n refs 2 3 most geodynamic models of flow in the lower crust and upper mantle however resort to newtonian linear stress strain rate relations here we show that a power law model of viscous flow in the mantle with n 3 5 successfully explains the spatial and temporal evolution of transient surface deformation following the 1992 landers and 1999 hector mine earthquakes in southern california a power law rheology implies that viscosity varies spatially with stress causing localization of strain and varies temporally as stress evolves rendering newtonian models untenable our findings are consistent with laboratory derived flow law parameters for hot and wet olivine the most abundant mineral in the upper mantle and support the contention that at least beneath the mojave desert the upper mantle is weaker than the lower crust

episodic aseismic slip in a two degree of freedom block spring model 1 we consider a two degree of freedom block spring model in which two blocks block 1 and block 2 are connected by a spring and driven by a slowly moving driver assuming a rate and state dependent friction law we set the friction parameters such that dynamic instability occurs at block 1 episodic aseismic slip occurs at block 2 when its frictional parameters are near the stability transition when the stress has accumulated to approximately a steady state level during an interseismic period block 2 starts a slow slip quasi static oscillation in the stress and slip velocity occurs with decaying fluctuation amplitudes leading to the steady state values the decaying oscillation could be a plausible generation mechanism of the episodic aseismic slip observed in the tokai district japan since 2001 we also consider various slip modes on a plate boundary based on this two block model associated with the interaction between different frictional properties

transient rheology of the upper mantle beneath central alaska inferred from the crustal velocity field following the 2002 denali earthquake the m7 9 2002 denali earthquake alaska is one of the largest strike slip earthquakes ever recorded the postseismic gps velocity field around the 300 km long rupture is characterized by very rapid horizontal velocity up to 300 mm yr for the first 0 1 years and slower but still elevated horizontal velocity up to 100 mm yr for the succeeding 1 5 years i find that the spatial and temporal pattern of the displacement field may be explained by a transient mantle rheology representing the regional upper mantle as a burghers body 1 infer steady state and transient viscosities of 1 2 8 x 10 18 pa s and 2 1 0 x 10 17 pa s respectively corresponding to material relaxation times of 1 3 and 0 05 years the lower crustal viscosity is poorly constrained by the considered horizontal velocity field and the quoted mantle viscosities assume a steady state lower crust viscosity that is 7 1 systematic bias in predicted versus observed velocity vectors with respect to a fixed north america during the first 3 6 months following the earthquake is reduced when all velocity vectors are referred to a fixed site this suggests that the post denali gps time series for the first 1 63 years are shaped by a combination of a common mode noise source during the first 3 6 months plus viscoelastic relaxation controlled by a transient mantle rheology

coseismic slip distribution of the 2002 mw7 9 denali fault earthquake alaska determined from gps measurements 1 on 3 november 2002 an mw7 9 earthquake occurred in central alaska the earthquake ruptured portions of the susitna glacier denali and totschunda faults inversion of the gps measured displacement field indicates that the event was dominated by a complex right lateral strike slip rupture along the denali fault gps sites closest to the epicenter show the effect of thrust motion on the susitna glacier fault the preferred coseismic slip model with m w 7 8 indicates relatively low slip on the western part of the rupture and high slip from about 60 km east of the hypocenter extending to the junction of the denali and totschunda faults we find mostly shallow slip from the surface to 15 km depth but the inversion suggests one large deep slip patch about 110 km east of the hypocenter our model predicts surface slip in good agreement with surface geological observations where model resolution is good

earthquake nucleation on faults with rate and state dependent strength abstract dieterich j h 1992 earthquake nucleation on faults with rate and state dependent strength in t mikumo k aki m ohnaka l j ruff and p k p spudich editors earthquake source physics and earthquake precursors tectonophysics 211 115 134 faults with rate and state dependent constitutive properties reproduce a range of observed fault slip phenomena including spontaneous nucleation of slip instabilities at stresses above some critical stress level and recovery of strength following slip instability calculations with a plane strain fault model with spatially varying properties demonstrate that accelerating slip precedes instability and becomes localized to a fault patch the dimensions of the fault patch follow scaling relations for the minimum critical length for unstable fault slip the critical length is a function of normal stress loading conditions and constitutive parameters which include dc the characteristic slip distance if slip starts on a patch that exceeds the critical size the length of the rapidly accelerating zone tends to shrink to the characteristic size as the time of instability approaches solutions have been obtained for a uniform fixed patch model that are in good agreement with results from the plane strain model over a wide range of conditions above the steady state stress the logarithm of the time to instability linearly decreases as the initial stress increases because nucleation patch length and premonitory displacement are proportional to dc the moment of premonitory slip scales by d3c the scaling of dc is currently an open question unless dc for earthquake faults is significantly greater than that observed on laboratory faults premonitory strain arising from the nucleation process for earthquakes may by too small to detect using current observation methods excluding the possibility that dc in the nucleation zone controls the magnitude of the subsequent earthquake then the source dimensions of the smallest earthquakes in a region provide an upper limit for the size of the nucleation patch

anomalous shear strain at parkfield during 1993 94 three borehole tensor strainmeters btsm installed near parkfield and separated by more than 5km have established a good baseline of data spanning the past eight years a significant change in the accumulation rate of shear strain 0 5 and 1 0 microstrain per year at two of the sites commencing approximately in mid 1993 and continuing to 1995 is evident in these data some supporting evidence for a change in the strain rate at that time is seen in dilatometer data geodetic measurements fault zone properties and microearthquake locations there was also an increase in medium level seismic activity m 4 7 on 10 20 92 m 3 9 on 10 26 92 m 3 5 on 3 13 93 m 4 4 on 4 3 93 m 4 8 on 11 14 93 in the middle mountain area while a rainfall induced strain may have caused the observed strain anomaly we propose a more likely explanation is that aseismic slip at depth on a section of the fault south of middle mountain produced the observed strain anomaly this anomaly is unique in the current data set

co seismic slip post seismic slip and largest aftershock associated with the 1994 sanriku haruka oki japan earthquake 1 we analyzed continuous gps data to investigate the spatio temporal distribution of co seismic slip post seismic slip and largest aftershock associated with the 1994 sanriku haruka oki japan earthquake mw 7 7 to get better resolution for co seismic and post seismic slip distribution we imposed a weak constraint as a priori information of the co seismic slip determined by seismic wave analyses we found that the post seismic slip during 100 days following the main shock amount to as much moment release as the main shock and that the sites of co seismic slip and post seismic slip are partitioning on a plate boundary region in complimentary fashion the major post seismic slip was triggered by the mainshock in western side of the co seismic slip and the extent of the post seismic slip is almost unchanged with time it rapidly developed a shear stress concentration ahead of the slip area and triggered the largest aftershock

southern california permanent gps geodetic array spatial filtering of daily positions for estimating coseismic and postseismic displacements induced by the 1992 landers earthquake the june 28 1992 m w 7 3 landers california earthquake was the first earthquake to be surveyed by a continuously operating global positioning system gps array the coordinate time series of seven sites are evaluated for station displacements during an interval of 100 days centered on the day of the earthquake we employ a new spatial filtering technique that removes common mode errors from the coordinate time series this approach provides precise estimates of site specific displacements compared to the cumbersome method of analyzing baselines between pairs of stations all sites indicate significant coseismic horizontal displacements of 5 65 mm with uncertainties of 1 2 mm horizontal displacements are in general agreement with elastic dislocation models in particular for sites closer to the epicenter vertical displacements range from 13 to 7 mm with uncertainties of 2 4 mm the observed vertical displacements in all cases show 5 10 mm more subsidence than expected from geodetic and seismic geologic models significant postseismic horizontal displacements totaling 6 2 mm 10 20 of the coseismic displacement are detected at the three sites closest to the epicenter these displacements are modeled as a short term exponential relaxation with a decay time of 22 10 days superimposed on a longer term linear interseismic trend scaling the observed coseismic and postseismic displacements at one of the sites with the distance to the epicenter provides a measure of site strain which agrees well with the direction and magnitude determined from more precise laser strain meter data the time series do not show any detectable preseismic displacements

slip on the san andreas fault at parkfield california over two earthquake cycles and the implications for seismic hazard parkfield california which experienced m 6 0 earthquakes in 1934 1966 and 2004 is one of the few locales for which geodetic observations span multiple earthquake cycles we undertake a comprehensive study of deformation over the most recent earthquake cycle and explore the results in the context of geodetic data collected prior to the 1966 event through joint inversion of the variety of parkfield geodetic measurements trilateration two color laser and global positioning system including previously unpublished two color data we estimate the spatial distribution of slip and slip rate along the san andreas using a fault geometry based on precisely relocated seismicity although the three most recent parkfield earthquakes appear complementary in their along strike distributions of slip they do not produce uniform strain release along strike over multiple seismic cycles since the 1934 earthquake more than 1 m of slip deficit has accumulated on portions of the fault that slipped in the 1966 and 2004 earthquakes and an average of 2 m of slip deficit exists on the 33 km of the fault southeast of gold hill to be released in a future perhaps larger earthquake it appears that the fault is capable of partially releasing stored strain in moderate earthquakes maintaining a disequilibrium through multiple earthquake cycles this complicates the application of simple earthquake recurrence models that assume only the strain accumulated since the most recent event is relevant to the size or timing of an upcoming earthquake our findings further emphasize that accumulated slip deficit is not sufficient for earthquake nucleation online material model fault geometry fit to the data for the inversions and model resolution

on the physical mechanism of silent slip events along the deeper part of the seismogenic zone 1 to investigate the mechanism of recently observed silent slip events we simulated earthquake preparation processes using the dieterich ruina rate and state dependent friction law to ensure realistic modeling of the unstable stable transition we considered small cut off velocity to an evolution effect in the friction law for the transition zone when the cut off velocity to the evolution effect is significantly smaller than that of a direct effect steady state friction behaves as velocity weakening at low slip velocity and velocity strengthening at high slip velocity this frictional behavior was experimentally and theoretically confirmed for the unstable stable transition zone the results of our numerical simulations show that silent slips of which velocity is higher than the velocity of relative plate motion eventually propagates horizontally along the unstable stable transition over a period of several years silent slip events can be interpreted as being caused by the transitional behavior of the fault constitutive law