implementing the effect of the rupture directivity on psha for the city of istanbul turkey abstract in the present study we improve the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment psha taking into account fault rupture related parameters that sensibly affect the azimuthal variability of the ground motion the study area is the marmara region turkey characterized by one of the highest levels of seismic risk in europe and the mediterranean region the seismic hazard in the city of istanbul is mainly associated with two active fault segments having well defined geometry focal mechanism and rate of activity deterministic dynamic models are also available in this area aochi and ulrich 2015 that aimed at evaluating the seismic potential of the marmara region these models provide the statistical distribution for the hypocenter position which is particularly relevant for rupture directivity the aim of this work is to incorporate all the available information about the seismic potential of the marmara region in a psha framework we use an analytical model for directivity spudich and chiou 2008 spudich et al 2013 to integrate rupture related parameters inside the psha standard procedure because the directivity effect is conditional on the hypocenter position which is not a priori known we assume at first ad hoc gaussian distributions centered in the western eastern or middle part of the two fault segments our results show that the correction for directivity introduces a significant contribution up to 25 of relative increase at 2 s to the hazard maps computed with the standard psha practice given in terms of pseudospectral accelerations having 10 probability of exceedance in 50 years the hazard maps sensibly change when we use the distribution for the hypocenter position informed by the statistical treatment of dynamic simulations thus integrating new variables in the psha in combination with properly informed probability density functions is not only feasible but also recommended for a comprehensive psha

fault interactions in the sea of marmara pull apart north anatolian fault earthquake clustering and propagating earthquake sequences summary knowledge on large earthquakes m 7 0 geology and fault kinematics is used to analyse conditions that favour isolated seismicity clustered earthquakes or propagating sequences along the north anatolian fault naf and the sea of marmara pull apart the overall naf marmara fault system is one of the most appropriate on earth to document fault interactions because reliable information covers almost completely two seismic cycles the past 500 yr coulomb stress analysis is used to characterize loading evolution in well identified fault segments including secular loading from below and lateral loading imposed by the occurrence of previous earthquakes earthquakes along the naf tend to occur where previous events have increased the stress but significant isolated events in the sea of marmara region 1894 1912 have occurred suggesting the secular loading has been the determining factor present day loading appears to be particularly high along the 70 km long segment located in the central marmara sea southwest of istanbul for the 18th century m 7 0 earthquake clusters we construct scenarios consistent with the tectonic and historical data we find that scenarios consistent with slip deficit and secular loading distributions from below clearly involve a sequence that propagates westward through the sea of marmara despite the structural complexity however the inference of a propagating sequence implies that each event has occurred in a segment previously stressed by lateral coulomb stress interactions the most likely scenarios for the propagating sequence are also consistent with coulomb stress interactions between faults with significant normal slip across the cinarcik basin propagating earthquake sequences do not occur every seismic cycle along the naf the loading has to be in a particular state of stress close to failure and uniform all along the fault segments to experience propagating earthquake sequences non uniform stress relief during the 18th century sequence explains the occurrence of isolated events in marmara in 1894 and 1912 as a consequence the wellknown 20th century sequence along the naf has not propagated as a sequence across the sea of marmara the most linear part of the naf across northern turkey behaves as a single fault segment accumulating stress during hundreds of years and rupturing entirely during very short periods the marmara pull apart fault system behaves as a major geometric complexity stopping or delaying the progression of earthquake clustering and propagating sequences fault zones interact with each other at a very large scale

an active deep marine strike slip basin along the north anatolian fault in turkey the tekirdag depression within the marmara sea in the mediterranean region is an active rhomb shaped strike slip basin along the north anatolian fault with a basin floor at a water depth of 1150 m new multichannel seismic reflection data and on land geological studies indicate that the basin is forming along a releasing bend of the strike slip fault and is filled with syntransform sediments of pliocene quaternary age the basin is bounded on one side by the north anatolian fault and on the other side by a subparallel normal fault which forms the steep submarine slope in cross section the basin is strongly asymmetric with the thickness of the syntransform strata increasing from a few tens of meters on the submarine slope to over 2 5 km adjacent to the north anatolian fault seismic sections also show that the slope forming normal fault connects at depth to the north anatolian fault implying that the basin is completely detached from its substratum the whole structure can be envisaged as a huge rather flat negative flower structure the releasing bend of the north anatolian fault responsible for the formation of the basin is flanked by a constraining bend along the constraining bend the syntransform strata are being underthrust implying a recent change in the direction of the regional displacement vector this thrusting is responsible for the uplift of the submarine slope to a height of 924 m possibly by a mechanism of elastic rebound regional geology suggests that most of the syntransform strata are lacustrine with only the topmost few hundred meters consisting of deep marine clays the anomalous present depth of the tekirdag depression is due to reduced quaternary sedimentation coupled with high rates of displacement along the north anatolian fault which amounts to 20 mm yr in the marmara sea region

timing of gold mineralization in the hutti gold deposit dharwar craton south india the hutti orogenic gold deposit in the eastern dharwar craton of south india is located in a cuspate greenstone belt which is tectonically juxtaposed against tonalite trondhjemite granodiorite ttg basement on its western margin the host rocks to gold mineralization are mafic and felsic volcanic rocks metamorphosed to the amphibolite facies mineralization is confined to nine broadly parallel quartz reefs within north south to north northwest south southeast trending shear zones that dip approximately 70 w six of these 2 to 10 m thick boudinaged veins have been mined to a depth of over 810 m free gold occurs in the veins and alteration haloes and is spatially and temporally associated with quartz and disseminated pyrite and arsenopyrite which in turn are closely associated with hydrothermal monazite and xenotime in the biotite plagioclase wall rock alteration around veins gold is considered to have been deposited during d 2 to d 3 deformation broadly coincident with the emplacement of syntectonic granitoids the history of volcanism granitic magmatism and gold mineralization is defined by u pb geochronology of magmatic zircons and hydrothermal monazite and xenotime the felsic volcanic host rocks have a u pb zircon age of 2587 7 ma about 40 m y older than the age of gold mineralization at 2547 10 ma determined from hydrothermal monazite the syntectonic kavital granitoid has a u pb zircon age of 2545 7 ma which overlaps with the timing of gold deposition and is consistent with structural interpretations the ramagiri and kolar gold deposits elsewhere in the dharwar craton are considered to have a similar structural timing and the hutti geochronology suggests that gold mineralization occurred throughout the dharwar craton some 80 to 120 m y later than the major peak of late archean world class orogenic gold mineralization in most other archean cratons

accounting for source effects in the shakemap procedure the 2000 tottori and the 2008 miyagi earthquakes italian presidenza del consiglio dei ministri dipartimento della protezione civile dpc under the contract 2007 2009 dpc ingvs3project

seismic imaging of the three dimensional architecture of the cinarcik basin along the north anatolian fault the cinarcik basin is a transtensional basin located along the northern branch of the northern north anatolian fault naf in the sea of marmara the eastern half of which has been identified as a seismic gap during the seismarmara 2001 experiment a dense grid of multichannel seismic reflection profiles was shot covering the whole cinarcik basin and its margins the new seismic images provide a nearly three dimensional view of the architecture of the basin fault system at depth and sedimentary infill and provide insight into its tectonic evolution along both northern and southern margins of the basin seismic reflection data show deep penetrating faults hence long lived features which have accommodated a large amount of extension there is no indication in the data for a single throughgoing strike slip fault neither a cross basin fault nor a pure strike slip fault running along the northern margin faster opening is presently observed in the eastern part of the basin the cinarcik basin seems to have developed as a transtensional basin across strike slip segments of the northern naf for the last few million years

rupture characteristics of the a d 1912 murefte ganos earthquake segment of the north anatolian fault western turkey abstract the ganos fault is the westernmost segment of the north anatolian fault naf that generated the 9 august 1912 murefte ganos earthquake mw 7 4 we study the 1912 earthquake characteristics using co seismic fault slip and fault segmentation coupled with an analysis of historical seismic records surface ruptures with small releasing and restraining structures and 1 5 to 5 5 m right lateral offsets have been measured at 45 sites of the onland 45 km long fault section similar structures are delineated by fresh fault scarps and prominent pull apart basins in the sea of marmara and saros bay a second shock with mw 6 8 occurred on 13 september 1912 implying 20 to 40 km long rupture the damage distribution and analysis of seismic records suggest an epicenter located further west near saros bay which indicates the location of western termination of the 9 august rupture our modeling of historical seismic records reveals a relative source time function between the two events and indicates a 40 second rupture duration in agreement for a 120 30 km long fault rupture for the 9 august shock an estimated total rupture length of 150 30 km for the two earthquakes combined with onshore and offshore fault segmentation allow us to better constrain the western limit of the marmara sea seismic gap and related potential for producing a large earthquake that was sharply increased by the devastating 1999 izmit earthquake in the east

the effect of directivity in a psha framework summary we propose a method to introduce a refined representation of the ground motion in the framework of the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis psha this study is especially oriented to the incorporation of a priori information about source parameters by focusing on the directivity effect and its influence on seismic hazard maps two strategies have been followed one considers the seismic source as an extended source and it is valid when the psha seismogenetic sources are represented as fault segments we show that the incorporation of variables related to the directivity effect can lead to variations up to 20 per cent of the hazard level in case of dip slip faults with uniform distribution of hypocentre location in terms of spectral acceleration response at 5 s exceeding probability of 10 per cent in 50 yr the second one concerns the more general problem of the seismogenetic areas where each point is a seismogenetic source having the same chance of enucleate a seismic event in our proposition the point source is associated to the rupture related parameters defined using a statistical description as an example we consider a source point of an area characterized by strike slip faulting style with the introduction of the directivity correction the modulation of the hazard map reaches values up to 100 per cent for strike slip unilateral faults the introduction of directivity does not increase uniformly the hazard level but acts more like a redistribution of the estimation that is consistent with the fault orientation a general increase appears only when no a priori information is available however nowadays good a priori knowledge exists on style of faulting dip and orientation of faults associated to the majority of the seismogenetic zones of the present seismic hazard maps the percentage of variation obtained is strongly dependent on the type of model chosen to represent analytically the directivity effect therefore it is our aim to emphasize more on the methodology following which all the information collected may be easily converted to obtain a more comprehensive and meaningful probabilistic seismic hazard formulation

new empirical relationships among magnitude rupture length rupture width rupture area and surface displacement source parameters for historical earthquakes worldwide are compiled to develop a series of empirical relationships among moment magnitude m surface rupture length subsurface rupture length downdip rupture width rupture area and maximum and average displacement per event the resulting data base is a significant update of previous compilations and includes the additional source parameters of seismic moment moment magnitude subsurface rupture length downdip rupture width and average surface displacement each source parameter is classified as reliable or unreliable based on our evaluation of the accuracy of individual values only the reliable source parameters are used in the final analyses in comparing source parameters we note the following trends 1 generally the length of rupture at the surface is equal to 75 of the subsurface rupture length however the ratio of surface rupture length to subsurface rupture length increases with magnitude 2 the average surface displacement per event is about one half the maximum surface displacement per event and 3 the average subsurface displacement on the fault plane is less than the maximum surface displacement but more than the average surface displacement thus for most earthquakes in this data base slip on the fault plane at seismogenic depths is manifested by similar displacements at the surface log linear regressions between earthquake magnitude and surface rupture length subsurface rupture length and rupture area are especially well correlated showing standard deviations of 0 25 to 0 35 magnitude units most relationships are not statistically different at a 95 significance level as a function of the style of faulting thus we consider the regressions for all slip types to be appropriate for most applications regressions between magnitude and displacement magnitude and rupture width and between displacement and rupture length are less well correlated and have larger standard deviation than regressions between magnitude and length or area the large number of data points in most of these regressions and their statistical stability suggest that they are unlikely to change significantly in response to additional data separating the data according to extensional and compressional tectonic environments neither provides statistically different results nor improves the statistical significance of the regressions regressions for cases in which earthquake magnitude is either the independent or the dependent parameter can be used to estimate maximum earthquake magnitudes both for surface faults and for subsurface seismic sources such as blind faults and to estimate the expected surface displacement along a fault for a given size earthquake

maximum link distance between strike slip faults observations and constraints the maximum fault link distance lateral separation between two interacting strike slip faults is studied in relation to fault length combined length of the two interacting faults data collected for laboratory generated strike slip faults indicate that fault linkage takes place when the lateral separation between two strike slip faults is less than one tenth of the combined length of the two faults strike slip faults developed in clay models require a smaller link distance than those developed in gouge materials about 98 of the data collected for natural strike slip faults and 93 of earthquake rupture data derived from knuepfer 1989 follow the rule these observations support a simple scaling relationship for strike slip faults i e w 0 1 l where wis lateral link distance and l the combined fault length an and sammis 1996a two possible explanations are discussed assuming a fault continues to be dominantly strike slip after various fault coalescences the fault link distance for both compressional coalescence leading to restraining bend and extensional coalescence leading to releasing bend can be constrained within 0 134 l assuming fault coalescence is caused by interaction between breakdown zones at fault tips then the scaling relationship b 0 1 l between the size of a breakdown zone b and the individual fault length l scholz et al 1993 leads to the scaling relationship w max 0 1 l where w max is the maximum link distance the above observed relationship between w max and l may not hold if faults coalesce through preexisting faults if a fault has a mixed mode other than strike slip or if a fault bend is caused by cross faulting rather than fault coalescence limited exposure of natural fault traces may also lead to errors in link distance measurements

the active main marmara fault abstract this paper presents selections from and a synthesis of a high resolution bathymetric sparker and deep towed seismic reflection data set recently acquired by the french ifremer r v le suroit in an e w deep trough that forms the northern half of the sea of marmara in nw turkey it includes the first high resolution complete bathymetric map of this area a single throughgoing dextral strike slip fault system which is the western continuation of the northern branch of the north anatolian fault cuts this trough lengthwise and joins the 1999 8 17 kocaeli earthquake fault with the 1912 8 09 arkoy murefte earthquake fault both of which display strike slip offset in its eastern one fourth the structure follows closely the northern margin of the deep trough whereas in the west it hugs its southern margin the eastern one fourth of the structure has a minor component of its displacement distributed across the deep trough owing to a possible original bend in the course of the dextral structure the present course of the north anatolian fault in the sea of marmara originated some 2 105 a ago by cutting across the older basin fabric generated by a dominant nne ssw extension before it began taking up major motion in the pliocene

the sea of marmara a plate boundary sea in an escape tectonic regime abstract the sea of marmara is dissected by two major fault systems the first consists of two east west striking transtensional boundary faults and a number of secondary faults subparallel to them the second is made up of ne sw trending subvertical strike slips and their conjugates oriented nw se that offset the first system these fault systems segment the deep marmara sea into 5 blocks that are either rhomboidal lazy z or wedge shaped three of these blocks may be interpreted as pull apart basins characterized by transtension while the other two sill areas which separate the basins are transpressional push up structures the blocks are subjected to rapid episodic subsidence but they also undergo pervasive vertical motions and possible rotations relative to one another the sedimentary column above the acoustic basement mapped within the sea of marmara can be divided into 3 seismic units a folded and truncated pre transform unit and two syn transform units the lower thick syn transform unit exhibits 3 distinct seismic facies a well stratified basin fill facies cut by subvertical growth faults a push up facies with a contorted or chaotic internal configuration and a slump facies the observed neotectonic and sedimentary regimes result from compressional movement between eurasia and africa which has led to major dextral transform movements along the north anatolian fault zone escape tectonics and from the fact that this fault zone splinters into two overlapping right stepping oblique master faults at the eastern and western border of the sea of marmara respectively

paleoseismology of the north anatolian fault at guzelkoy ganos segment turkey size and recurrence time of earthquake ruptures west of the sea of marmara 1 the ganos fault is the westernmost segment of the north anatolian fault that experienced the mw 7 4 earthquake of 9 august 1912 the earthquake revealed 45 km long of surface ruptures inland trending n70 e and 5 5 m of maximum right lateral offset near guzelkoy the long term deformation of the fault is clearly expressed by several pull apart basins and sag ponds pressure and shutter ridges and offset streams in parallel with detailed geomorphologic investigations we measured co seismic and cumulative displacements along the fault and selected the guzelkoy site for paleoseismology a microtopographic survey at the site yields 10 5 0 5 m and 35 4 1 5 m cumulative lateral offsets of stream channels and geomorphologic features seven paleoseismic parallel and cross fault trenches document successive faulting events and provide the timing of past earthquakes on the ganos fault segment radiocarbon dating of successive colluvial wedges in trench t1 and the fresh scarplet above probably 1912 surface rupture indicate the occurrence of three faulting events since the 14th century parallel trenches 3 5 6 and 7 expose paleo channels and show a cumulative right lateral offset of 16 5 1 5 m next to the fault and 21 3 1 5 m total channel deflection radiocarbon dating of past channel units and fault scarp related colluvial deposits imply an average 17 5 mm year slip rate and 323 142 years recurrence interval of large earthquakes during the last 1000 years on the ganos fault the succession of past faulting events and inferred slip rate west of the marmara sea provide more constraint on the long term faulting behavior in the seismic gap of the north anatolian fault and may contribute to a better seismic hazard assessment in the istanbul region

slip partitioning in the sea of marmara pull apart determined from gps velocity vectors summary dislocation modelling is used to examine the gps velocity vectors for the marmara sea region first the vectors due to the known anatolia eurasia rotation are reproduced by introducing structures that approximate the large scale tectonics observed features of the smaller scale fault system in the marmara region are then progressively included with slip amplitudes and directions adjusted to fit an 80 vector subset of the gps data the motion in the marmara sea region is partitioned with the faults that bound the north of the basin carrying more strike slip motion than predicted from the anatolia eurasia plate motion and faults to the south having a greater perpendicular component taken together however there is no net opening across the marmara sea perpendicular to the overall trend of the boundary and thus deformation in the marmara region results only from the pull apart geometry of the north anatolian fault no extension related to the aegean system is needed to explain the observations the gps results are consistent with motion over the last 5 myr that has been determined from geological reconstructions

submarine fault scarps in the sea of marmara pull apart north anatolian fault implications for seismic hazard in istanbul earthquake scarps associated with recent historical events have been found on the floor of the sea of marmara along the north anatolian fault naf the marmarascarps cruise using an unmanned submersible rov provides direct observations to study the fine scale morphology and geology of those scarps their distribution and geometry the observations are consistent with the diversity of fault mechanisms and the fault segmentation within the north marmara extensional step over between the strike slip ganos and izmit faults smaller strike slip segments and pull apart basins alternate within the main step over commonly combining strike slip and extension rapid sedimentation rates of 1 3 mm yr appear to compete with normal faulting components of up to 6 mm yr at the pull apart margins in spite of the fast sedimentation rates the submarine scarps are preserved and accumulate relief sets of youthful earthquake scarps extend offshore from the ganos and izmit faults on land into the sea of marmara our observations suggest that they correspond to the submarine ruptures of the 1999 izmit mw 7 4 and the 1912 ganos ms 7 4 earthquakes while the 1999 rupture ends at the immediate eastern entrance of the extensional cinarcik basin the 1912 rupture appears to have crossed the ganos restraining bend into the sea of marmara floor for 60 km with a right lateral slip of 5 m ending in the central basin step over from the gulf of saros to marmara the total 1912 rupture length is probably about 140 km not 50 km as previously thought the direct observations of submarine scarps in marmara are critical to defining barriers that have arrested past earthquakes as well as defining a possible segmentation of the contemporary state of loading incorporating the submarine scarp evidence modifies substantially our understanding of the current state of loading along the naf next to istanbul coulomb stress modeling shows a zone of maximum loading with at least 4 5 m of slip deficit encompassing the strike slip segment 70 km long between the cinarcik and central basins that segment alone would be capable of generating a large magnitude earthquake mw 7 2 other segments in marmara appear less loaded

recalculated probability of m 7 earthquakes beneath the sea of marmara turkey 1 new earthquake probability calculations are made for the sea of marmara region and the city of istanbul providing a revised forecast and an evaluation of time dependent interaction techniques calculations incorporate newly obtained bathymetric images of the north anatolian fault beneath the sea of marmara le pichon et al 2001 armijo et al 2002 newly interpreted fault segmentation enables an improved regional a d 1500 2000 earthquake catalog and interevent model which form the basis for time dependent probability estimates calculations presented here also employ detailed models of coseismic and postseismic slip associated with the 17 august 1999 m 7 4 izmit earthquake to investigate effects of stress transfer on seismic hazard probability changes caused by the 1999 shock depend on marmara sea fault stressing rates which are calculated with a new finite element model the combined 2004 2034 regional poisson probability of m 7 earthquakes is 38 the regional time dependent probability is 44 18 and incorporation of stress transfer raises it to 53 18 the most important effect of adding time dependence and stress transfer to the calculations is an increase in the 30 year probability of a m 7 earthquake affecting istanbul the 30 year poisson probability at istanbul is 21 and the addition of time dependence and stress transfer raises it to 41 14 the ranges given on probability values are sensitivities of the calculations to input parameters determined by monte carlo analysis 1000 calculations are made using parameters drawn at random from distributions sensitivities are large relative to mean probability values and enhancements caused by stress transfer reflecting a poor understanding of large earthquake aperiodicity index terms 7223 seismology seismic hazard assessment and prediction 7230 seismology seismicity and seismotectonics 8150 tectonophysics plate boundary general 3040 keywords earthquake probability sea of marmara seismic hazard turkey stress interaction north anatolian fault

using mechanical modeling to constrain fault geometries proposed for the northern marmara sea 1 in recognition of potential seismic hazard along the north anatolian fault within the marmara sea geophysical surveys have recently been conducted to collect high resolution bathymetry and seismic reflection data despite the high quality of the data fault interpretations by different authors are varied and a conclusive fault geometry within the marmara sea remains elusive this paper presents a mechanical modeling method for constraining proposed fault geometry interpretations in the model crustal faults within the marmara sea slip in accordance with gps constrained slip rates along deep plate boundary dislocations we test three fault models proposed by others and show that an interpretation with a series of pull apart basins along a master strike slip fault best produces the observed deformation pattern within the marmara sea the locations and relative subsidence of the basins along the northern marmara trough are well matched the computed slip vectors on the faults in the best fitting model indicate that except for small faults bounding the tekirdag basin the faults have dominantly right lateral slip with rakes within 15 of horizontal on the local scale this suggests that interaction between the segmented strike slip faults is the dominant mechanism producing the observed vertical deformation in the marmara sea on the regional scale if the marmara sea faults behaved in this manner over geologic timescales then right lateral plate boundary motion without an additional component of north south extension associated with the aegean sea is sufficient to produce the marmara sea pull apart basin morphology

the north anatolian fault within the sea of marmara a new interpretation based on multi channel seismic and multi beam bathymetry data abstract we analyze 2200 km of multi channel seismic reflection profiles that have become recently available in the sea of marmara this analysis benefits from the recent acquisition of multi beam bathymetric data covering the axial portion of the northern basins we conclude that the northern sea of marmara is at present cut by an active continuous strike slip fault system that we call the marmara fault it links the 270 izmit portion of the northern branch of the north anatolian fault to the east of the sea to the 245 ganos fault to the west the marmara fault itself consists of two main parts the western one is a single 80 km long fault it follows a 265 direction that differs by 20 from the direction of the ganos fault at its northeastern extremity it turns toward the northern margin of the cinarcik basin this western part of the fault is seismically quite active the eastern part is more complex it extends over 65 km in a 280 direction there is thus a 10 clockwise rotation with respect to the 270 izmit fault strand that should result in a slight extensional component within the eastern cinarcik basin this part of the marmara fault has two parallel branches 10 km apart the northern one near the foot of the northern slope the southern one near the foot of the southern slope a shortening zone occupies the northwestern corner of the cinarcik basin and much of the adjacent eastern central high and separates the northern branch from the western one the southern branch on the other hand may cross the eastern central high along a narrow 280 valley the data we have provide no definitive evidence on which of these two branches carries most of the motion the establishment of the present trace of the fault through the marmara basin is contemporaneous with a recent phase of deposition of deep giant ripples parallel to the bathymetric slope contours and adjacent to the turbidites basin deposits the base of these deep basins sedimentary deposits is marked by a widespread erosional unconformity below which lies a gently folded sedimentary sequence that may consist of shallow thrace basin deposits

asymmetric slip partitioning in the sea of marmara pull apart a clue to propagation processes of the north anatolian fault between 1939 and 1999 the north anatolian fault naf experienced a westward progression of eight large earthquakes over 800 km of its morphological trace the 2000 km long north anatolian transform fault has also grown by westward propagation through continental lithosphere over a much longer timescale 10 myr the sea of marmara is a large pull apart that appears to have been a geometrical mechanical obstacle encountered by the naf during its propagation the present paper focuses on new high resolution data on the submarine fault system that forms a smaller pull apart beneath the northern sea of marmara between two well known strike slip faults on land izmit and ganos faults the outstandingly clear submarine morphology reveals a segmented fault system including pull apart features at a range of scales which indicate a dominant transtensional tectonic regime there is no evidence for a single continuous purely strike slip fault this result is critical to understanding of the seismic behaviour of this region of the naf close to istanbul additionally morphological and geological evidence is found for a stable kinematics consistent both with the long term displacement field determined for the past 5 myr and with present day anatolia eurasia motion determined with gps however within the sea of marmara region the fault kinematics involves asymmetric slip partitioning that appears to have extended throughout the evolution of the pull apart the loading associated with the westward propagation process of the naf may have provided a favourable initial geometry for such a slip separation

extension of the north anatolian fault into the north aegean trough evidence for transtension strain partitioning and analogues for sea of marmara basin models 1 the north aegean trough is tectonically controlled by the projection of the north anatolian fault from western turkey and the sea of marmara into the aegean where deformation is distributed in contrast to the simple strike slip fault model for central eastern turkey this region accommodates extensional and dextral displacement new side scan sonar data coupled with new subbottom profiler and published seismic data reveal evidence for dextral displacement within the eastern trough and gulf of saros in the form of oblique en echelon and riedel r r and p fractures and displaced geomorphic features strain partitioning in the shallow crust allows the following two styles of faulting to coexist supported by earthquake focal mechanisms 1 transtensional basin bounding faults controlling the significant vertical topography of the basin and 2 dextral faulting within the central basin these styles of faulting merge at greater depths into a single fault a possible sinistral nw striking fault separates two subbasins and may indicate crustal block rotation with deformation focused in block corners such evidence and models from the north aegean are similar to models of transtension and pull apart basins within the sea of marmara

dynamic models of earthquakes on the north anatolian fault zone under the sea of marmara effect of hypocenter location 1 we perform three dimensional spontaneous dynamic rupture models of potential earthquakes on the geometrically complex north anatolian fault zone nafz under the marmara sea turkey the nafz south of the city of istanbul consists of a large scale extensional stepover with right lateral strike slip segments linked by an oblique normal segment we find that earthquakes nucleating near the stepover do not propagate across the entire fault system due to the statically unfavorable stress field on the oblique fault and lead to moderate size events only however earthquakes initiating a significant distance from the stepover cause significant dynamic unclamping of the oblique fault and thus generate large through going ruptures dynamic unclamping also produces supershear rupture propagation in the vicinity of fault discontinuities the results emphasize that estimations of earthquake size rupture propagation and slip distribution cannot be decoupled from the location of the hypocenter and the orientation of the geometrically complex fault system within the tectonic stress field

a first deep seismic survey in the sea of marmara deep basins and whole crust architecture and evolution abstract increased source strength streamer length and dense spatial coverage of seismic reflection profiles of the seismarmara leg 1 allow to image the deep structure of the marine north marmara trough nmt on the strike slip north anatolian fault naf west of the destructive izmit 1999 earthquake a reflective lower crust and the moho boundary are detected they appear upwarped on an e w profile from the southern central basin eastwards towards more internal parts of the deformed region thinning of the upper crust could use a detachment suggested from an imaged dipping intracrustal reflector that would allow upper crustal material to be dragged from beneath it and above the lower crust accounting for the extensional component but also southwest motion of the southern margin of the nmt sections across the eastern half of the nmt crossing the cinarcik and imrali basins reveal several faults that are active reaching into the basement and have varying strike and proportions of normal and strike slip displacement they might be viewed as petals of a large scale negative flower structure that spreads over a width of 30 km at surface and is rooted deeper in the lithosphere under the central basin a very thick sediment infill is revealed and its extensional bounding faults are active and imaged as much as 8 km apart down to 6 km depth we interpret them as two deep rooted faults encompassing a foundering basement block rather than being merely pulled apart from a jog in a strike slip above a decollement the deep basin lengthening would account for only a modest part of the proposed 60 km finite motion since 4 myr along the same direction oblique to the nmt that sidesteps the shear motion from its two ends thus differential motion occurred much beyond the deep basins like subsidence involving the nmt bounding faults and the intracrustal detachments the complex partitioned motion localized on active faults with diverse natures and orientations is suggested to represent the overburden deformation induced from horizontal plane simple shear occurring in depth at lithospheric scale and in front of the north anatolian fault when it propagated through the region

fault behavior and characteristic earthquakes examples from the wasatch and san andreas fault zones paleoseismological data for the wasatch and san andreas fault zones have led to the formulation of the characteristic earthquake model which postulates that individual faults and fault segments tend to generate essentially same size or characteristic earthquakes having a relatively narrow range of magnitudes near the maximum analysis of scarp derived colluvium in trench exposures across the wasatch fault provides estimates of the timing and displacement associated with individual surface faulting earthquakes at all of the sites studied the displacement per event has been consistently large measured values range from 1 6 to 2 6 m and the average is about 2 m on the basis of variability in the timing of individual events as well as changes in scarp morphology and fault geometry six major segments are recognized along the wasatch fault on the basis of the most likely number of surface faulting events 18 that have occurred on segments of the wasatch fault zone during the past 8000 years an average recurrence interval of 400 666 years with a preferred average of 444 years is calculated for the entire zone geologic data on the distribution of slip associated with prehistoric earthquakes and slip rates along the south central segment of the san andreas fault suggest that the m 8 1857 earthquake is a characteristic earthquake for this segment comparisons of earthquake recurrence relationships on both the wasatch and san andreas faults based on historical seismicity data and geologic data show that a linear constant b value extrapolation of the cumulative recurrence curve from the smaller magnitudes leads to gross underestimates of the frequency of occurrence of the large or characteristic earthquakes only by assuming a low b value in the moderate magnitude range can the seismicity data on small earthquakes be reconciled with geologic data on large earthquakes the characteristic earthquake appears to be a fundamental aspect of the behavior of the wasatch and san andreas faults and may apply to many other faults as well

slip rate variability and distributed deformation in the marmara sea fault system the slip rate along a fault controls the accumulation of strain that is eventually released during an earthquake estimates from a three dimensional geomechanical model of the slip rate on the main marmara fault near istanbul turkey reconcile geodetic and geological observations and indicate smaller values and higher variability than previously thought the slip rate along a fault controls the accumulation of strain that is eventually released during an earthquake1 along a 150 km long stretch of the north anatolian fault near istanbul turkey strain has been building up2 since the last large earthquake in 1766 estimates of the geodetic slip rates along the main marmara fault vary widely ranging between 17 and 27 9 mm yr 1 refs 2 3 4 5 this slip rate is difficult to quantify because of the lack of satellite observations offshore and the complexity of the submarine fault system that includes the main marmara fault2 6 7 here we estimate the right lateral slip rate on the main marmara fault using a three dimensional geomechanical model that incorporates these structural complexities from our simulations we infer slip rates between 12 8 and 17 8 mm yr 1 our estimates are smaller and more variable than previous results primarily because of slip partitioning and internal deformation our model results reconcile geodetic observations and geological fault slip rates8 9 10 which had been considered conflicting previously we suggest that the inferred variability in slip rate on the main marmara fault favours segmented release of seismic moment during consecutive events over the failure of the whole seismic gap in one large earthquake

istanbul s earthquake hot spots geodetic constraints on strain accumulation along faults in the marmara seismic gap during the past century a series of predominantly westward migrating m 7 earthquakes broke an 1000 km section of the north anatolian fault naf the only major remaining seismic gap along the fault is under the sea of marmara main marmara fault mmf we use 20 years of gps observations to estimate strain accumulation on fault segments in the marmara sea seismic gap we report the first direct observations of strain accumulation on the princes islands segment of the mmf constraining the slip deficit rate to 10 15 mm yr in contrast the central segment of the mmf that was thought to be the most likely location for the anticipated gap filling earthquakes shows no evidence of strain accumulation suggesting that fault motion is accommodated by fault creep we conclude that the princes islands segment is most likely to generate the next m 7 earthquake along the sea of marmara segment of the naf

gps constraints on continental deformation in the africa arabia eurasia continental collision zone and implications for the dynamics of plate interactions 1 the gps derived velocity field 1988 2005 for the zone of interaction of the arabian african nubian somalian and eurasian plates indicates counterclockwise rotation of a broad area of the earth s surface including the arabian plate adjacent parts of the zagros and central iran turkey and the aegean peloponnesus relative to eurasia at rates in the range of 20 30 mm yr this relatively rapid motion occurs within the framework of the slow moving 5 mm yr relative motions eurasian nubian and somalian plates the circulatory pattern of motion increases in rate toward the hellenic trench system we develop an elastic block model to constrain present day plate motions relative euler vectors regional deformation within the interplate zone and slip rates for major faults substantial areas of continental lithosphere within the region of plate interaction show coherent motion with internal deformations below 1 2 mm yr including central and eastern anatolia turkey the southwestern aegean peloponnesus the lesser caucasus and central iran geodetic slip rates for major block bounding structures are mostly comparable to geologic rates estimated for the most recent geological period 3 5 myr we find that the convergence of arabia with eurasia is accommodated in large part by lateral transport within the interior part of the collision zone and lithospheric shortening along the caucasus and zagros mountain belts around the periphery of the collision zone in addition we find that the principal boundary between the westerly moving anatolian plate and arabia east anatolian fault is presently characterized by pure left lateral strike slip with no fault normal convergence this implies that extrusion is not presently inducing westward motion of anatolia on the basis of the observed kinematics we hypothesize that deformation in the africa arabia eurasia collision zone is driven in large part by rollback of the subducting african lithosphere beneath the hellenic and cyprus trenches aided by slab pull on the southeastern side of the subducting arabian plate along the makran subduction zone we further suggest that the separation of arabia from africa is a response to plate motions induced by active subduction

influence of releasing step overs on surface fault rupture and fault segmentation examples from the 17 august 1999 izmit earthquake on the north anatolian fault turkey the 17 august 1999 izmit earthquake broke four distinct structural segments of the north anatolian fault from east to west the karadere sakarya sapanca and golcuk fault segments these segments are separated from one another and the adjoining yalova and duzce fault segments to the west and east respectively by distinct right releasing step over and or gaps in the fault trace these include from east to west the eften lake step over 2 4 km wide akyazi gap 6 13 km long sapanca step over 1 2 km wide golcuk step over 1 2 km wide and karamursel step over 4 5 km wide the earthquake nucleated within or near the golcuk step over with bilateral rupture propagation to the west and east to the west about 4 5 5 m of surface rupture up to 7 m of subsurface rupture on the golcuk segment was mostly if not entirely arrested by the 4 to 5 km wide karamursel step over to the east about 3 4 m of surface rupture about 4 m of subsurface rupture propagated through the 1 to 2 km wide sapanca step over triggering up to 4 5 5 5 m of surface rupture up to 5 6 m of subsurface rupture on the sakarya segment rupture on the sakarya segment stepped across the akyazi gap triggering 1 1 5 m of rupture on the karadere segment rupture on the karadere segment was arrested by the 2 to 4 km wide eften lake step over modeling of the transient stress field associated with the rupture propagation agrees well with the field observations the modeled fault rupture of 5 m on the golcuk segment appears to decrease the transient stress on the eastern tip of the adjoining yalova segment across the 4 to 5 km wide karamursel step over even if we allow rupture on the golcuk segment to extend along the entire southern margin of the step over our model shows that regardless of the amount of slip in a generic sense it is difficult to increase stress on the tip of an adjoining fault segment across a 5 km wide step over on the other hand fault rupture of 3 m on the western tip of the sapanca fault segment significantly increases the transient stress on the adjoining sakarya segment across the 1 to 2 km wide sapanca step over allowing rupture propagation across the basin an evaluation of 30 historical strike slip earthquakes involving 59 step over basins supports our field observations and stress modeling of the izmit fault rupture historical strike slip events with small to large displacements usually propagate through step overs less than 1 2 km wide with increasing displacement larger and larger step overs can be ruptured through the empirical data generally show a ratio ranging from 2 1 to 1 1 between step over width in kilometers and strike slip displacement in meters for a through going rupture however step overs of 4 to 5 km width appear to always arrest fault rupture regardless of the amount of displacement these results therefore provide important constraints for evaluating the probability of multisegment ruptures on segmented strike slip faults manuscript received 20 august 2000

microseismicity at the north anatolian fault in the sea of marmara offshore istanbul nw turkey 1 the north anatolian fault zone nafz below the sea of marmara forms a seismic gap where a major earthquake is expected to occur in the near future this segment of the fault lies between the 1912 ganos and 1999 izmit ruptures and is the only nafz segment that has not ruptured since 1766 to monitor the microseismic activity at the main fault branch offshore of istanbul below the cinarcik basin a permanent seismic array pires was installed on the two outermost prince islands yassiada and sivriada at a few kilometers distance to the fault in addition a temporary network of ocean bottom seismometers was deployed throughout the cinarcik basin slowness vectors are determined combining waveform cross correlation and p wave polarization we jointly invert azimuth and traveltime observations for hypocenter determination and apply a bootstrap resampling technique to quantify the location precision we observe seismicity rates of 20 events per month for m 2 5 along the basin the spatial distribution of hypocenters suggests that the two major fault branches bounding the depocenter below the cinarcik basin merge to one single master fault below 17 km depth on the basis of a cross correlation technique we group closely spaced earthquakes and determine composite focal mechanisms implementing recordings of surrounding permanent land stations fault plane solutions have a predominant right lateral strike slip mechanism indicating that normal faulting along this part of the nafz plays a minor role toward the west we observe increasing components of thrust faulting this supports the model of nw trending dextral strike slip motion along the northern and main branch of the nafz below the eastern sea of marmara

tides in a system of connected estuaries abstractthe spatial structure of tidal amplitude and phase in a simplified system of connected estuaries an idealized version of florida s intracoastal waterway is analyzed with a linear analytical model this model includes friction the earth s rotation and variable bathymetry it is driven at the connection with the ocean by a co oscillating tide model results compare well with observations of pressure and currents in a section of the intracoastal waterway on the east coast of florida the comparison suggests that the waterway is highly frictional causing the amplitude of the water elevation and tidal velocity to decrease away from the inlets to a minimum in the middle of the waterway the local phase relationship between velocity and water elevation changed nonlinearly from 90 with no friction to 45 with maximum friction in moderately to highly frictional basins the phase lag was consistently less than 45