the significance of channel recharge rates for estimating debris flow magnitude and frequency the quantification of debris flow hazard requires estimates of debris flow frequency and magnitude several methods have been proposed to determine the probable volume of future debris flows from a given basin but most have neglected to account for debris recharge rates over time which may lead to underestimation of debris flow volumes in basins with rare debris flows this paper deals with the determination of debris recharge rates in debris flow channels based on knowledge of debris storage and the elapsed time since the last debris flow data are obtained from coastal british columbia and a relation is obtained across a sample of basins with similar terrain and climatic conditions for rennell sound on the west coast of the queen charlotte islands the power law relation for area normalized recharge rate rt versus elapsed time te was rt 0 23te 0 58 with an explained variance of 75 per cent a difference in recharge rates may exist between creeks in logged and unlogged forested terrain the power function for undisturbed terrain was rt 0 20te 0 49 while the function for logged areas was rt 0 30te 0 77 this result suggests that for the same elapsed time since the last debris flow clearcut gullies tend to recharge at a slower rate than creeks in old growth forest this finding requires verification particularly for longer elapsed times since debris flow but would have important implications for forest resource management in steep coastal terrain this study demonstrates that commonly used encounter probability equations are inappropriate for recharge limited debris flow channels copyright 2005 john wiley sons ltd

stress sensitivity of fault seismicity a comparison between limited offset oblique and major strike slip faults we present a new three dimensional inventory of the southern san francisco bay area faults and use it to calculate stress applied principally by the 1989 m 7 1 loma prieta earthquake and to compare fault seismicity rates before and after 1989 the major high angle right lateral faults exhibit a different response to the stress change than do minor oblique right lateral thrust faults seismicity on oblique slip faults in the southern santa clara valley thrust belt increased where the faults were unclamped the strong dependence of seismicity change on normal stress change implies a high coefficient of static friction in contrast we observe that faults with significant offset 50 100 km behave differently microseismicity on the hayward fault diminished where right lateral shear stress was reduced and where it was unclamped by the loma prieta earthquake we observe a similar response on the san andreas fault zone in southern california after the landers earthquake sequence additionally the offshore san gregorio fault shows a seismicity rate increase where right lateral oblique shear stress was increased by the loma prieta earthquake despite also being clamped by it these responses are consistent with either a low coefficient of static friction or high pore fluid pressures within the fault zones we can explain the different behavior of the two styles of faults if those with large cumulative offset become impermeable through gouge buildup coseismically pressurized pore fluids could be trapped and negate imposed normal stress changes whereas in more limited offset faults fluids could rapidly escape the difference in behavior between minor and major faults may explain why frictional failure criteria that apply intermediate coefficients of static friction can be effective in describing the broad distributions of aftershocks that follow large earthquakes since many of these events occur both inside and outside major fault zones

gps estimate of relative motion between the caribbean and south american plates and geologic implications for trinidad and venezuela global positioning system gps data from eight sites on the caribbean plate and five sites on the south american plate were inverted to derive an angular velocity vector describing present day relative plate motion both the caribbean and south american velocity data fit rigid plate models to within 1 2 mm yr the gps velocity uncertainty the caribbean plate moves approximately due east relative to south america at a rate of 20 mm yr along most of the plate boundary significantly faster than the nuvel 1a model prediction but with similar azimuth pure wrenching is concentrated along the approximately east striking seismic el pilar fault in venezuela in contrast transpression occurs along the 068 trending central range warm springs fault in trinidad which is aseismic possibly locked and oblique to local plate motion

the 2002 denali fault earthquake alaska a large magnitude slip partitioned event the mw moment magnitude 7 9 denali fault earthquake on 3 november 2002 was associated with 340 kilometers of surface rupture and was the largest strike slip earthquake in north america in almost 150 years it illuminates earthquake mechanics and hazards of large strike slip faults it began with thrusting on the previously unrecognized susitna glacier fault continued with right slip on the denali fault then took a right step and continued with right slip on the totschunda fault there is good correlation between geologically observed and geophysically inferred moment release the earthquake produced unusually strong distal effects in the rupture propagation direction including triggered seismicity

the effects of double fault bends on rupture propagation a geometrical parameter study we use the 2d finite element method to determine how geometrical parameters determine whether rupture will propagate across a linked stepover in a strike slip fault the end segments of the fault system are aligned in the direction of maximum shear and the length and angle of the linking segment are allowed to vary we observe that ruptures propagate through extensional stepovers with steeper angles and longer linking segments than otherwise equivalent compressional step overs these different rupture behaviors form distinct regions in angle stepover length parameter space the boundary between these regions takes the shape of an asymptotic curve in both the extensional and compressional cases models in which the size of the entire fault system was made larger or smaller revealed that the location of the bound aries between regions of different rupture behavior do not scale linearly with the system size it was easier to rupture steeper and relatively longer stepovers in fault systems that were larger overall a separate set of models in which the stress field is rotated so that the parallel end segments were optimally aligned for rupture significantly altered the rupture behavior curves in this stress field it was easier to rupture compressional stepovers with steeper angles and longer linking segments than it was to rupture equivalent extensional stepovers in both the case in which the end segments are aligned with the direction of maximum shear and the case in which the end segments are optimally oriented for rupture the angles at which rupture could no longer propagate through the entire fault corresponded with peaks in the fault s s value

creep and quakes on the northern transition zone of the san andreas fault from gps and insar data 1 the san juan bautista sjb segment forms the northern transition zone of the creeping section of the san andreas fault it is an area of moderate seismicity the largest instrumentally recorded earthquakes have been m5 5 however historic records suggest six m 6 earthquakes occurred near the sjb segment between 1840 and 1899 it is also an area that has experienced several slow earthquakes we perform a joint inversion of gps and insar data to determine the current rate and distribution of interseismic creep we find two low slip locked segments at mid seismogenic depths that may represent source regions for the 19th century earthquakes we find that the sjb segment is currently accumulating strain energy at the rate of one m6 3 6 7 earthquake per century at this rate the 1840 1899 sequence released 135 510 years of accumulated moment deficit

dynamic earthquake ruptures in the presence of lithostatic normal stresses implications for friction models and heat production we simulate dynamic ruptures on a strike slip fault in homogeneous and layered half spaces and on a thrust fault in a layered half space with traditional friction models sliding friction exceeds 50 of the fault normal compressive stress and unless the pore pressures approach the lithostatic stress the rupture characteristics depend strongly on the depth and sliding generates large amounts of heat under application of reasonable stress distributions with depth variation of the effective coefficient of friction with the square root of the shear modulus and the inverse of the depth creates distributions of stress drop and fracture energy that produce realistic rupture behavior this ad hoc friction model results in 1 low sliding friction at all depths and 2 fracture energy that is relatively independent of depth additionally friction models with rate weakening behavior which form pulselike ruptures appear to generate heterogeneity in the distributions of final slip and shear stress more effectively than those without such behavior which form cracklike ruptures for surface rupture on a thrust fault the simple slip weakening friction model which lacks rate weakening behavior accentuates the dynamic interactions between the seismic waves and the rupture and leads to excessively large ground motions on the hanging wall waveforms below the center of the fault which are associated with waves radiated to teleseismic distances indicate that source inversions of thrust events may slightly underestimate the slip at shallow depths

dynamic rupture modeling of the transition from thrust to strike slip motion in the 2002 denali fault earthquake alaska we use three dimensional dynamic spontaneous rupture models to investigate the nearly simultaneous ruptures of the susitna glacier thrust fault and the denali strike slip fault with the 1957 m w 8 3 gobi altay mongolia earthquake as the only other well documented case of significant nearly simultaneous rupture of both thrust and strike slip faults this feature of the 2002 denali fault earthquake provides a unique opportunity to investigate the mechanisms responsible for development of these large complex events we find that the geometry of the faults and the orientation of the regional stress field caused slip on the susitna glacier fault to load the denali fault several different stress orientations with oblique right lateral motion on the susitna glacier fault replicate the triggering of rupture on the denali fault about 10 sec after the rupture nucleates on the susitna glacier fault however generating slip directions compatible with measured surface offsets and kinematic source inversions requires perturbing the stress orientation from that determined with focal mechanisms of regional events adjusting the vertical component of the principal stress tensor for the regional stress field so that it is more consistent with a mixture of strike slip and reverse faulting significantly improves the fit of the slip rake angles to the data rotating the maximum horizontal compressive stress direction westward appears to improve the fit even further

velocity field across the southern caribbean plate boundary and estimates of caribbean south american plate motion using gps geodesy 1994 2000 global positioning system gps observations between 1994 and 2000 at twenty two sites in the lesser antilles and northern south america indicate that the caribbean plate along its southern boundary slips at a rate of 20 5 2 mm a with an azimuth of n 84 2 e at 65 w relative to the south american plate east of 68 w 80 of the dextral slip is contained within a 80 km wide shear zone centered on the el pilar san sebastian fault system west of 68 w the plate boundary broadens to more than 300 km with dextral shear shared between the northeast trending bocono fault 9 11 mm a in western venezuelan and an offshore system near the northern coast

relationship between seismicity and subsurface fluids central coast ranges california seismicity is irregularly distributed in the central coast ranges of california with several large areas having virtually no seismic activity since 1968 aseismic areas correlate with zones of abnormally high pore fluid pressures ahps 130 of hydrostatic level line surveys suggest that aseismic areas have experienced significant historical uplift moreover these aseismic areas show a remarkable correlation with perennial saline springs that represent technically expelled formation fluid as indicated by their perennial flow 18o and d enrichment to 6 3 and 13 respectively elevated b to 331 ppm and chemistry dominated by na and cl aseismic areas are dominantly located at the center of structural blocks that are under compression and are bounded by major faults and seismicity belts volumetric strain within these blocks creates pockets of overpressured formation fluid that greatly reduce seismic activity while promoting aseismic uplift seismic cross sections reveal three dimensional pockets of aseismicity that are floored and surrounded by scattered hypocenters we suggest that overpressured formation fluids originate at depths of 1 to 7 km within these pockets on the basis of na k ca geothermometry estimates that are consistent with stratigraphic information and available drill hole data these overpressured fluid pockets may also influence seismicity on major faults such as the upper 3 km of the active greenville fault which is relatively aseismic where it separates two overpressured pockets decreasing flow rates observed at some saline springs may represent a local transition to a period of increased seismic activity while many studies have linked generation of earthquakes to man made fluid overpressures our data show that the dominant long term effect of ahps is to reduce seismicity and promote uplift

fault interactions and large complex earthquakes in the los angeles area faults in complex tectonic environments interact in various ways including triggered rupture of one fault by another that may increase seismic hazard in the surrounding region we model static and dynamic fault interactions between the strike slip and thrust fault systems in southern california we find that rupture of the sierra madre cucamonga thrust fault system is unlikely to trigger rupture of the san andreas or san jacinto strike slip faults however a large northern san jacinto fault earthquake could trigger a cascading rupture of the sierra madre cucamonga system potentially causing a moment magnitude 7 5 to 7 8 earthquake on the edge of the los angeles metropolitan region

terashake2 spontaneous rupture simulations of mw 7 7 earthquakes on the southern san andreas fault abstract previous numerical simulations terashake1 of large m w 7 7 southern san andreas fault earthquakes predicted localized areas of strong amplification in the los angeles area associated with directivity and wave guide effects from northwestward propagating rupture scenarios the terashake1 source was derived from inversions of the 2002 m w 7 9 denali alaska earthquake that source was relatively smooth in its slip distribution and rupture characteristics owing both to resolution limits of the inversions and simplifications imposed by the kinematic parameterization new simulations terashake2 with a more complex source derived from spontaneous rupture modeling with small scale stress drop heterogeneity predict a similar spatial pattern of peak ground velocity pgv but with the pgv extremes decreased by factors of 2 3 relative to terashake1 the terashake2 source excites a less coherent wave field with reduced along strike directivity accompanied by streaks of elevated ground motion extending away from the fault trace the source complexity entails abrupt changes in the direction and speed of rupture correlated to changes in slip velocity amplitude and waveform features that might prove challenging to capture in a purely kinematic parameterization despite the reduced pgv extremes northwest rupturing terashake2 simulations still predict entrainment by basin structure of a strong directivity pulse with pgvs in los angeles and san gabriel basins that are much higher than predicted by empirical methods significant areas of those basins have predicted pgv above the 2 probability of exceedance poe level relative to current attenuation relationships even when the latter includes a site term to account for local sediment depth and wave guide focusing produces localized areas with pgv at roughly 0 1 0 2 poe about a factor of 4 5 above the median in contrast at rock sites in the 0 100 km distance range the median terashake2 pgvs are in very close agreement with the median empirical prediction and extremes nowhere reach the 2 poe level the rock site agreement lends credibility to some of our source modeling assumptions including overall stress drop level and the manner in which we assigned dynamic parameters to represent the mechanical weakness of near surface material future efforts should focus on validating and refining these findings assessing their probabilities of occurrence relative to alternative rupture scenarios for the southern san andreas fault and incorporating them into seismic hazard estimation for southern california

attenuation of radiated ground motion and stresses from three dimensional supershear ruptures 1 radiating shear and rayleigh waves from supershear ruptures form mach waves that transmit large amplitude ground motion and stresses to locations far from the fault we simulate bilateral ruptures on a finite width vertical strike slip fault of width w and half length l with l w breaking the surface of an elastic half space and focus on the wavefield out to distances comparable to l at distances much smaller than w two dimensional plane strain slip pulse models i e models in which the lateral extent of the slip zone is unbounded accurately predict the subsurface wavefield amplitudes in the shear mach wedge of those models are undiminished with distance from the fault when viewed from distances far greater than w rupture is accurately modeled as a moving point source that produces a shear mach cone and on the free surface rayleigh wave mach fronts geometrical spreading of the shear mach cone occurs radially and amplitudes there decrease with the inverse square root of distance the transition between these two asymptotic limits occurs at distances comparable to w similar considerations suggest that rayleigh mach waves suffer no attenuation in the ideally elastic medium studied here the rate at which fault strength weakens at the rupture front exerts a strong influence on the off fault fields only in the immediate vicinity of the fault for both sub rayleigh and supershear ruptures and at the mach fronts of supershear ruptures more rapid weakening generates larger amplitudes at the mach fronts

application of trishear fault propagation folding to active reverse faults examples from the dalong fault gansu province nw china abstract determining accurate fault slip rates at 1 ka to 1 ma timescales requires well constrained palinspastic reconstructions of dateable geomorphic and or geologic markers although general kinematic models have been developed to simultaneously reconstruct both bedrock e g bedding and fault attitudes and neotectonic markers e g strath terraces along active strike slip and thrust faults it is not clear if these models can also account for deformation along steeply dipping 45 reverse faults to address this problem we have investigated the active 50 dipping dalong reverse fault system this 40 km long fault system forms part of the aksai restraining stepover along the active left slip altyn tagh fault in northwestern china our geometric and kinematic analyses show that conventional fault bend fold models cannot satisfy the steeply dipping fault geometry we observe in the bedrock record likewise standard fault propagation fold models fail to match our measurements of a set of fluvial terraces however by expanding the trishear model of fault propagation folding to track both bedrock and neotectonic markers we are able to match both sets of records in particular we have developed trishear kinematic models for two sites liuchenzi and qingyazi using the numerical modeling program fault fold v 5 0 this work indicates that an important implication of active trishear fault propagation folding is that terrace deformation extends for over 1 km on either side of the fault trace thus to accurately measure the total magnitude of vertical separation between matching terraces in the hanging wall and footwall terrace profiles across active reverse faults must extend 1 2 km on either side of this zone of deformation

evidence for large earthquakes in metropolitan los angeles the sierra madre fault along the southern flank of the san gabriel mountains in the los angeles region has failed in magnitude 7 2 to 7 6 events at least twice in the past 15 000 years restoration of slip on the fault indicated a minimum of about 4 0 meters of slip from the most recent earthquake and suggests a total cumulative slip of about 10 5 meters for the past two prehistoric earthquakes large surface displacements and strong ground motions resulting from greater than magnitude 7 earthquakes within the los angeles region are not yet considered in most seismic hazard and risk assessments

san andreas fault zone california m 5 5 earthquake history the san andreas fault zone has been a very significant source of major california earthquakes from 1812 to 1906 it generated four major earthquakes of m 7 or larger in two pairs on two major portions of the fault a pair of major earthquakes occurred on the central to southern region where the 1857 faulting overlapped the 1812 earthquake faulting a pair of major earthquakes occurred on the northern region where the 1906 faulting overlapped the 1838 earthquake faulting also earthquakes of m 7 occurred in the san francisco bay area on the hayward fault in 1868 and the santa cruz mountains near loma prieta in 1989 and on the imperial fault near the border with mexico in 1940 the 1838 earthquake s damage effects throughout the bay area from san francisco to santa clara valley and monterey were unequalled by any historical earthquake other than the 1906 event this and numerous strong possible aftershocks during the following 3 years in the san juan bautista vicinity suggest 1838 faulting from san francisco to san juan bautista cycles of seismicity and quiescence were associated with the bay area earthquakes of 1868 1906 and 1989 the 1868 earthquake on the hayward fault was preceded by 12 earthquakes of m 5 5 from 1855 to 1866 within 60 km of the hayward fault and was followed by 13 quiet years the 1906 san andreas fault event was preceded from 1881 to 1903 by 18 earthquakes of m 5 5 and was followed by quiescence with only three earthquakes of m 5 5 until 1954 the bay area has been seismically quiet at the m 5 5 level since the 1989 loma prieta earthquake and its 1990 aftershocks which contrasts with the 10 years before 1989 when five m 5 5 6 2 events occurred the loma prieta earthquake is of similar magnitude to the 1868 hayward event and could be followed by a similarly short quiet period the 1857 earthquake had immediate foreshocks in the lonoak bitterwater region 50 km northwest of parkfield in the northern end zone of the 1857 rupture extending southeast from bitterwater 70 km to parkfield the rate of seismic moment release has decreased with time since 1857 this may reflect the decay with time of the stress loading due to the 9 m 1857 fault displacements 80 km southeast of parkfield and explain why the predicted earthquake which was based on the assumption of regular recurrence of parkfield earthquakes has not yet occurred the extent of the 1812 earthquake fault rupture is not well defined jacoby et al 1988 estimated that it extended 170 km from cajon pass to tejon pass based on this estimate we present the hypothesis that the rupture occurred in two segments in december 1812 the eastern segment generated the 8 december earthquake that damaged san juan capistrano san gabriel san fernando and san buenaventura thirteen days later the western segment ruptured generating the earthquake that damaged san fernando and san buenaventura again as well as santa barbara santa ynez and purisima concepcion

late pleistocene intraplate extension of the central anatolian plateau turkey inferences from cosmogenic exposure dating of alluvial fan landslide and moraine surfaces along the ecemis fault zone here we documented the vertical displacement slip rate extension rate and geochronology of normal faults within a narrow strip along the main strand of the ecemis fault zone the kartal cevizlik and lorut faults are normal faults that have evident surface expression within the strip terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide geochronology revealed that the kartal fault deformed the 104 2 16 5 ka aged alluvial fan surface and the cevizlik fault deformed the 21 9 1 8 ka old moraine and talus fan surfaces our topographic surveys indicated 120 10 m and 13 1 1 4 m surface breaking vertical displacements along the kartal and cevizlik faults respectively accordingly we suggest a 1 15 0 21 mm a 1 slip rate and 0 66 0 12 mm a 1 extension rate for the last 104 2 16 5 ka on the kartal fault and a 0 60 0 08 mm a 1 slip rate and 0 35 0 05 mm a 1 extension rate for the last 21 9 1 8 ka on the cevizlik fault we believe that these structures are an integral part of intraplate crustal deformation in the central anatolia they imply that intraplate structures such as the ecemis fault zone may change their mode through time presently the ecemis fault zone has been deformed predominantly by normal faults the presence of steep preserved fault scarps along the kartal cevizlik and lorut faults point to surface breaking normal faulting away from the main strand and particularly signify that these structures need to be taken into account for regional seismic hazard assessments

uniform california earthquake rupture forecast version 2 ucerf 2 the 2007 working group on california earthquake probabilities wgcep 2007 presents the uniform california earthquake rupture forecast version 2 ucerf 2 this model comprises a time independent poisson process earthquake rate model developed jointly with the national seismic hazard mapping program and a time dependent earthquake probability model based on recent earthquake rates and stress renewal statistics conditioned on the date of last event the models were developed from updated statewide earthquake catalogs and fault deformation databases using a uniform methodology across all regions and implemented in the modular extensible open seismic hazard analysis framework the rate model satisfies integrating measures of deformation across the plate boundary zone and is consistent with historical seismicity data an overprediction of earthquake rates found at intermediate magnitudes 6 5 m 7 0 in previous models has been reduced to within the 95 confidence bounds of the historical earthquake catalog a logic tree with 480 branches represents the epistemic uncertainties of the full time dependent model the mean ucerf 2 time dependent probability of one or more m 6 7 earthquakes in the california region during the next 30 yr is 99 7 this probability decreases to 46 for m 7 5 and to 4 5 for m 8 0 these probabilities do not include the cascadia subduction zone largely north of california for which the estimated 30 yr m 8 0 time dependent probability is 10 the m 6 7 probabilities on major strike slip faults are consistent with the wgcep 2003 study in the san francisco bay area and the wgcep 1995 study in southern california except for significantly lower estimates along the san jacinto and elsinore faults owing to provisions for larger multisegment ruptures important model limitations are discussed

tectonic inversion in the caribbean south american plate boundary gps geodesy seismology and tectonics of the mw 6 7 22 april 1997 tobago earthquake on 22 april 1997 the largest earthquake recorded in the trinidad tobago segment of the caribbean south american plate boundary zone mw 6 7 ruptured a shallow 9 km ene striking 250 azimuth shallowly dipping 28 dextral normal fault 10 km south of tobago in this study we describe this earthquake and related foreshock and aftershock seismicity derive coseismic offsets using gps data and model the fault plane and magnitude of slip for this earthquake coseismic slip estimated at our episodic gps sites indicates movement of tobago 135 6 to 68 6 mm nne and subsidence of 7 9 to 0 mm this earthquake was anomalous and is of interest because 1 its large component of normal slip and ene strike are unexpected given the active e w dextral shearing across the caribbean south american plate boundary zone 2 it ruptured a normal fault plane with a low 28 dip angle and 3 it reactivated and inverted the preexisting tobago terrrane south america ocean continent thrust boundary that formed during early tertiary oblique plate convergence

modeling of postseismic relaxation following the great 1857 earthquake southern california abstract repeated first order triangulation measurements made from 15 monuments in central and southern california are used to explore the structure of the crust and upper mantle beneath southern california as well as to estimate the distribution of slip during the great 1857 earthquake the monuments are divided into two subnetworks with repeated observations covering the respective time intervals from 1884 to 1923 and from 1898 to 1923 the angle changes occurring within these times are modeled as a sum of two contributions postseismic displacements following the 1857 earthquake and plate tectonic loading the postseismic displacements have been calculated using a elastic viscoelastic coupling model that for any fault geometry yields the exact displacements on a spherically stratified earth the southern california crust and upper mantle are modeled as an upper elastic plate underlain by a viscoelastic asthenosphere for several different combinations of structural parameters inversions are performed for the slip distribution of the 1857 earthquake in general the best fits to the data are achieved with a triangular slip distribution an elastic plate thickness of 16 km a crustal thickness of 16 to 33 km and a mantle viscosity of 0 4 to 0 8 10 19 pa s although these inversions identify the best rheological models they lead to observed residuals that are inconsistent with a normally distributed data set a preferred model of slip is constructed that accounts for the budget of total slip during the earthquake cycle and satisfies a normally distributed data set the preferred slip distribution is similar in shape to the mapped surface slip distribution but is greater in amplitude by a factor of 1 5 to 2 in addition the san jacinto fault which has no known surface slip associated with the 1857 earthquake is inferred to have accommodated 1 to 3 m of slip during the 1857 earthquake and appears to be the favored site for tectonic strain accumulation since 1857 inferred fault slip exceeding known surface slip implies either unrecognized secondary faulting or a slip deficit at the surface relative to the slip at depth

local near instantaneously dynamically triggered aftershocks of large earthquakes aftershocks are often triggered by static and or dynamic stress changes caused by mainshocks the relative importance of the two triggering mechanisms is controversial at near to intermediate distances we detected and located 48 previously unidentified large early aftershocks triggered by earthquakes with magnitudes between 7 and 8 within a few fault lengths approximately 300 kilometers during times that high amplitude surface waves arrive from the mainshock less than 200 seconds the observations indicate that near to intermediate field dynamic triggering commonly exists and fundamentally promotes aftershock occurrence the mainshocks and their nearby early aftershocks are located at major subduction zones and continental boundaries and mainshocks with all types of faulting mechanisms normal reverse and strike slip can trigger early aftershocks

rock and mineral transformations in a fault zone leading to permanent creep interactions between brittle and viscous mechanisms in the san andreas fault creep processes may relax part of the tectonic stresses in active faults either by continuous or episodic processes the aim of this study is to obtain a better understanding of these creep mechanisms and the manner in which they change in time and space results are presented from microstructural studies of natural samples collected from san andreas fault observatory at depth borehole drilled through the san andreas fault which reveal the chronology of the deformation within three domain types i a relatively undeformed zone of the host rock reflects the first step of the deformation process with fracturing and grain indentations showing the coupling between fracturing and pressure solution ii shear deformation development that associates fracturing and solution cleavage processes leads to profound changes in rock composition and behavior with two types of development depending on the ratio between the amount of dissolution and deposition abundant mineral precipitation strengthens some zones while pervasive dissolution weakens some others iii zones with mainly dissolution trended toward the present day creeping zones thanks to both the passive concentration of phyllosilicates and their metamorphic transformation into soft minerals such as saponite this study shows how interactions between brittle and viscous mechanisms lead to widespread transformation of the rocks and how a shear zone may evolve from a zone prone to earthquakes and postseismic creep to a zone of steady state creep in parallel the authors discuss how the creeping mechanism mainly controlled by the very low friction of the saponite in the first 3 4 km depth may evolve with depth

trinidad mud volcanoes where do the expelled fluids come from abstract in order to establish the origin of fluids expelled from mud volcanoes in trinidad we analyzed their major element trace element and isotopic h o sr compositions the mineralogical chemical and sr isotope compositions of associated expelled muds were also determined on the basis of their chemical and sr isotope compositions the fluids were divided into two groups those southwest and northeast of a major right lateral wrench fault the los bajos fault that both controls the chemical quality of the fluids and acts as a drain strontium isotopes were derived via mixing between a radiogenic source 0 71135 and a nonradiogenic source 0 70671 for both southwest and northeast groups however the nonradiogenic source possibly feeding the northeast group showed a lower sr concentration than that of the southwest group h and o isotope data show that the fluids became enriched in 18 o through interaction with wall rocks the fluids were originally oceanic but their properties were subsequently modified by diagenesis as evidenced by chemical data and mixing between fluids issued from two deep seated reservoirs and surface aquifer end members the gas phase expelled with the mud and the fluid through the mud volcanoes is composed mainly of methane with minor carbon dioxide the amount of expelled gas seems the same in samples from both sides of the los bajos fault the almost unique methane content of the gas phase and the large positive 18 o shifts of the reservoir end member as well as b li and ba contents reveal that the fluids from the deep seated reservoirs inherited their chemical compositions at high temperature fluid rock interactions estimates of equilibrium temperatures of the two deep seated reservoirs suggest that to acquire the estimated higher temperature 150 c the mud volcanoes must have been fed partly by a reservoir located at a depth of more than 3 km this depth corresponds to previous geologic information which located the deep seated reservoir in miocene sediments at such a comparable depth the mixing of the original fluids with a less deep seated reservoir and meteoric waters on the ascending path suggests the presence of a recharge mechanism and contributes to the dynamics of the expulsion itself

talc bearing serpentinite and the creeping section of the san andreas fault the section of the san andreas fault located between cholame valley and san juan bautista in central california creeps at a rate as high as 28 mm yr 1 ref 1 and it is also the segment that yields the best evidence for being a weak fault embedded in a strong crust serpentinized ultramafic rocks have been associated with creeping faults in central and northern california and serpentinite is commonly invoked as the cause of the creep and the low strength of this section of the san andreas fault however the frictional strengths of serpentine minerals are too high to satisfy the limitations on fault strength and these minerals also have the potential for unstable slip under some conditions here we report the discovery of talc in cuttings of serpentinite collected from the probable active trace of the san andreas fault that was intersected during drilling of the san andreas fault observatory at depth safod main hole in 2005 we infer that the talc is forming as a result of the reaction of serpentine minerals with silica saturated hydrothermal fluids that migrate up the fault zone and the talc commonly occurs in sheared serpentinite this discovery is significant as the frictional strength of talc at elevated temperatures is sufficiently low to meet the constraints on the shear strength of the fault and its inherently stable sliding behaviour is consistent with fault creep talc may therefore provide the connection between serpentinite and creep in the san andreas fault if shear at depth can become localized along a talc rich principal slip surface within serpentinite entrained in the fault zone

slip localization on the southern alpine fault new zealand 1 results of a detailed field study of the southern onshore portion of new zealand s alpine fault reveal that for 75 km along strike dextral normal slip on this long lived structure is highly localized in phyllosilicate rich fault core gouges and along their contact with more competent rocks at three localities martyr river mckenzie creek and hokuri creek we document complete cross sections through the fault new 40ar 39ar dates on mylonites combined with microstructural and mechanical data on phyllosilicate rich fault core gouges show that modern slip is localized onto a single steeply dipping 1 to 12 m thick fault core composed of impermeable k 10 20 to 10 22 m2 frictionally weak s 0 12 0 37 velocity strengthening illite chlorite and saponite chlorite lizardite fault gouges fault core materials are 1 comparable to those of other major weak cored faults e g san andreas fault and 2 most compatible with fault creep despite paleoseismic evidence of quasiperiodic large magnitude earthquakes mw 7 on this portion of the alpine fault we conclude that frictional properties of gouges at the surface do not characterize the overall seismogenic behavior of the southern alpine fault

isolating along strike variations in the depth extent of shallow creep and fault locking on the northern great sumatran fault the great sumatran fault system in indonesia is a major right lateral trench parallel system that can be divided into several segments most of which have ruptured within the last century this study focuses on the northern portion of the fault system which contains a 200 km long segment that has not experienced a major earthquake in at least 170 years in 2005 we established the aceh gps network for the sumatran fault system agness across this segment agness observes large displacements which include significant postseismic deformation from recent large megathrust earthquakes as well as interseismic deformation due to continued elastic loading of both the megathrust and the strike slip system we parameterize the displacements due to afterslip on the megathrust using a model based on a rate and state dependent friction formalism using this approach we are able to separate afterslip from other contributions we remove predicted deformation due to afterslip from the observations and use these corrected time series to infer the depth of shallow aseismic creep and deeper locked segments for the great sumatran fault in the northern portion of this fault segment we infer aseismic creep down to 7 3 4 8 km depth at a rate of 2 0 0 6 cm year in the southwestern portion of the segment we estimate a locking depth of 14 8 3 4 km with a downdip slip rate of 1 6 0 6 cm year this portion of the fault is capable of producing a magnitude 7 0 earthquake

fault kinematic and geomorphic observations along the north tehran thrust and mosha fasham fault alborz mountains iran implications for fault system evolution and interaction in a changing tectonic regime summary neighbouring faults can interact potentially link up and grow and consequently increase the seismic and related natural hazards in their vicinity despite evidence of quaternary faulting the kinematic relationships between the neighbouring mosha fasham fault mff and the north tehran thrust ntt and their temporal evolution in the alborz mountains are not well understood the ene striking ntt is a frontal thrust that delimits the alborz mountains to the south with a 2000 m topographic front with respect to the proximal tehran plain however no large instrumentally recorded earthquakes have been attributed to that fault in contrast the sigmoidally shaped mff is a major strike slip fault located within the alborz mountains sinistral motion along the eastern part of the mff is corroborated by microseismicity and fault kinematic analysis which documents recent transtensional deformation associated with nne ssw oriented shortening to better understand the activity of these faults on different timescales we combined fault kinematic analysis and geomorphic observations to infer the kinematic history of these structures our fault kinematic study reveals an early dextral shear for the ntt and the central mff responsible for dextral strike slip and oblique reverse faulting during nw oriented shortening this deformation regime was superseded by ne oriented shortening associated with sinistral oblique thrusting along the ntt and the central western mff sinistral strike slip motion along subsidiary faults in the central mff segment and folding and tilting of eocene to miocene units in the mff footwall continued thrusting along the ntt took place during the quaternary however folding in the hanging wall and sinistral stream offsets indicate a left oblique component and quaternary strike slip reactivation of the eastern ntt segment close to its termination this complex history of faulting under different stress directions has resulted in a composite landscape with inherited topographic signatures our study shows that the topography of the hanging wall of the ntt reflects a segmentation into sectors with semi independent uplift histories areas of high topographic residuals and apparent high uplift underscore the fault kinematics combined our data suggest an early mechanical linkage of the ntt and mff fault systems during a former dextral transpressional stage caused by nw compression during ne oriented shortening the ntt and mff were reactivated and incorporated into a nascent transpressional duplex the youngest manifestation of motion in this system is sinistral transtension however this deformation is not observed everywhere and has not yet resulted in topographic inversion

significance of stress transfer in time dependent earthquake probability calculations 1 a sudden change in stress is seen to modify earthquake rates but should it also revise earthquake probability data used to derive input parameters permit an array of forecasts so how large a static stress change is required to cause a statistically significant earthquake probability change to answer that question effects of parameter and philosophical choices are examined through all phases of sample calculations drawing at random from distributions of recurrence aperiodicity pairs identifies many that recreate long paleoseismic and historic earthquake catalogs probability density functions built from the recurrence aperiodicity pairs give the range of possible earthquake forecasts under a point process renewal model consequences of choices made in stress transfer calculations such as different slip models fault rake dip and friction are tracked for interactions among large faults calculated peak stress changes may be localized with most of the receiving fault area changed less than the mean thus to avoid overstating probability change on segments stress change values should be drawn from a distribution reflecting the spatial pattern rather than using the segment mean disparity resulting from interaction probability methodology is also examined for a fault with a well understood earthquake history a minimum stress change to stressing rate ratio of 10 1 to 20 1 is required to significantly skew probabilities with 80 85 confidence that ratio must be closer to 50 1 to exceed 90 95 confidence levels thus revision to earthquake probability is achievable when a perturbing event is very close to the fault in question or the tectonic stressing rate is low

constraining fault constitutive behavior with slip and stress heterogeneity 1 we study how enforcing self consistency in the statistical properties of the preshear and postshear stress on a fault can be used to constrain fault constitutive behavior beyond that required to produce a desired spatial and temporal evolution of slip in a single event we explore features of rupture dynamics that 1 lead to slip heterogeneity in earthquake ruptures and 2 maintain these conditions following rupture so that the stress field is compatible with the generation of aftershocks and facilitates heterogeneous slip in subsequent events our three dimensional finite element simulations of magnitude 7 events on a vertical planar strike slip fault show that the conditions that lead to slip heterogeneity remain in place after large events when the dynamic stress drop initial shear stress and breakdown work fracture energy are spatially heterogeneous in these models the breakdown work is on the order of mj m 2 which is comparable to the radiated energy these conditions producing slip heterogeneity also tend to produce narrower slip pulses independent of a slip rate dependence in the fault constitutive model an alternative mechanism for generating these confined slip pulses appears to be fault constitutive models that have a stronger rate dependence which also makes them difficult to implement in numerical models we hypothesize that self consistent ruptures could also be produced by very narrow slip pulses propagating in a self sustaining heterogeneous stress field with breakdown work comparable to fracture energy estimates of kj m 2

a three dimensional semianalytic viscoelastic model for time dependent analyses of the earthquake cycle 1 exploring the earthquake cycle for large complex tectonic boundaries that deform over thousands of years requires the development of sophisticated and efficient models in this paper we introduce a semianalytic three dimensional 3 d linear viscoelastic maxwell model that is developed in the fourier domain to exploit the computational advantages of the convolution theorem a new aspect of this model is an analytic solution for the surface loading of an elastic plate overlying a viscoelastic half space when fully implemented the model simulates 1 interseismic stress accumulation on the upper locked portion of faults 2 repeated earthquakes on prescribed fault segments and 3 the viscoelastic response of the asthenosphere beneath the plate following episodic ruptures we verify both the analytic solution and computer code through a variety of 2 d and 3 d tests and examples on the basis of the methodology presented here it is now possible to explore thousands of years of the earthquake cycle along geometrically complex 3 d fault systems

the dynamics of strike slip step overs with linking dip slip faults fault step overs with linking dip slip faults are common features on long strike slip fault systems worldwide it has been noted by various researchers that under some circumstances earthquakes can jump across fault step overs to cascade into large events while under other circumstances rupture is arrested at step overs there is also evidence that fault step overs may be preferential locations for earthquake nucleation the present work uses the 3d finite element method to model the dynamics of strike slip fault systems with step overs and linking dip slip faults i find that the presence of a linking normal or thrust fault greatly increases the ability of earthquake rupture to propagate across the step over leading to a larger event additionally dilational step overs with linking normal faults are more prone to through going rupture than compressional step overs with linking thrust faults this difference is due to the sign of the normal stress increment on the dip slip fault caused by slip on the strike slip segments slip on the strike slip segments causes a negative unclamping normal stress increment on the linking normal fault in a dilational step over whereas the opposite effect occurs on the linking thrust fault in a compressional step over even in cases for which both dilational and compressional step overs can experience through going rupture dilational step overs typically experience higher slip particularly on the linking normal fault in the compressional case rupture nucleation on the linking thrust fault may increase the likelihood of through going rupture compared to nucleation on one of the strike slip segments near the intersections between the fault segments the stress interaction between the fault segments also causes a significant rotation of rake away from that which would be inferred from the regional stress field the results help to emphasize the importance of two way interactions between nearby fault segments during the earthquake rupture process the results also may have implications for the probability of large earthquakes along geometrically complex strike slip fault systems and may help explain why step overs sometimes act as barriers and other times as nucleation locations for large earthquakes

evidence for large earthquakes on the san andreas fault at the wrightwood california paleoseismic site a d 500 to present we present structural and stratigraphic evidence from a paleoseismic site near wrightwood california for 14 large earthquakes that occurred on the southern san andreas fault during the past 1500 years in a network of 38 trenches and creek bank exposures we have exposed a composite section of interbedded debris flow deposits and thin peat layers more than 24 m thick fluvial deposits occur along the northern margin of the site the site is a 150 m wide zone of deformation bounded on the surface by a main fault zone along the northwest margin and a secondary fault zone to the southwest evidence for most of the 14 earthquakes occurs along structures within both zones we identify paleoearthquake horizons using in filled fissures scarps multiple rupture terminations and widespread folding and tilting of beds ages of stratigraphic units and earthquakes are constrained by historic data and 72 14c ages mostly from samples of peat and some from plant fibers wood pine cones and charcoal comparison of the long well resolved paleoseimic record at wrightwood with records at other sites along the fault indicates that rupture lengths of past earthquakes were at least 100 km long paleoseismic records at sites in the coachella valley suggest that each of the past five large earthquakes recorded there ruptured the fault at least as far northwest as wrightwood comparisons with event chronologies at pallett creek and sites to the northwest suggests that approximately the same part of the fault that ruptured in 1857 may also have failed in the early to mid sixteenth century and several other times during the past 1200 years records at pallett creek and pitman canyon suggest that in addition to the 14 earthquakes we document one and possibly two other large earthquakes ruptured the part of the fault including wrightwood since about a d 500 these observations and elapsed times that are significantly longer than mean recurrence intervals at wrightwood and sites to the southeast suggest that at least the southermost 200 km of the san andreas fault is near failure

dynamic transfer of rupture across differently oriented segments in a complex 3 d fault system 1 we simulate spontaneous dynamic propagation of rupture across two adjacent fault segments subject to a triaxial compressive stress regime these segments have different orientations and hence different focal mechanisms vertical strike slip and dipping thrust numerical simulations using a biem boundary integral equation method have revealed that under a typical triaxial homogeneous compressive stress regime where the magnitude of the intermediate principal stress lies halfway between those of the maximum and minimum ones ruptures of different focal mechanisms are not likely to occur simultaneously in a single rupture event propagation of rupture from a vertical strike slip fault segment to a pure dip slip normal reverse fault segment is possible only when the stress field is close to uniaxial compression or when the intermediate stress magnitude is close either to the minimum or the maximum one these findings are useful for evaluating possible earthquake scenarios along fault systems with complex 3d geometries

hydrocarbon systems of northeastern venezuela plate through molecular scale analysis of the genesis and evolution of the eastern venezuela basin abstract the prolific oil bearing basins of eastern venezuela developed through an unusual confluence of atlantic caribbean and pacific plate tectonic events mesozoic rifting and passive margin development created ideal conditions for the deposition of world class hydrocarbon source rocks in the cenozoic transpressive west to east movement of the caribbean plate along the northern margin of venezuela led to the maturation of those source rocks in several extended pulses directly attributable to regional tectonic events the combination of these elements with well developed structural and stratigraphic fairways resulted in remarkably efficient migration of large volumes of oil and gas which accumulated along the flanks of thick sedimentary depocenters at least four proven and potential hydrocarbon source rocks contribute to oil and gas accumulations cretaceous oil prone marine source rocks and miocene oil and gas prone paralic source rocks are well documented we used reservoired oils seeps organic rich rocks and fluid inclusions to identify probable jurassic hypersaline lacustrine and albian carbonate source rocks hydrocarbon maturation began during the early miocene in the present day serrania del interior as the caribbean plate moved eastward relative to south america large volumes of hydrocarbons expelled during this period were lost due to lack of effective traps and seals by the middle miocene however when source rocks from the more recent foredeeps began to mature reservoir migration pathways and topseal were in place rapid tectonically driven burial created the opportunity for unusually efficient migration and trapping of these later expelled hydrocarbons the generally eastward migration of broad depocenters across venezuela was supplemented by local tectonically induced subsidence these subsidence patterns and later migration resulted in the mixing of hydrocarbons from different source rocks and in a complex map pattern of variable oil quality that was further modified by biodegradation late gas migration water washing and subsequent burial the integration of plate tectonic reconstructions with the history of source rock deposition and maturation provides significant insights into the genesis evolution alteration and demise of eastern venezuela hydrocarbon systems we used this analysis to identify additional play potential associated with probable jurassic and albian hydrocarbon source rocks often overlooked in discussions of venezuela the results suggest that oils associated with likely jurassic source rocks originated in restricted rift controlled depressions lying at high angles to the eventual margins of the south atlantic and that albian oils are likely related to carbonate deposition along these margins post continental break up in terms of tectonic history the inferred mesozoic rift system is the eastern continuation of the espino graben whose remnant structures underlie both the serrania del interior and the gulf of paria where thick evaporite sections have been penetrated the pattern of basin structure and associated mesozoic deposition as depicted in the model has important implications for the mesozoic paleogeography of northern south america and africa cuba and the yucatan and associated new play potential

lithosphere tearing at step faults response to edges of subduction zones abstract slab edges are a relatively common feature in plate tectonics two prominent examples are the northern end of the tonga subduction zone and the southern end of the new hebrides subduction zone near such horizontal terminations of subduction trenches ongoing tearing of oceanic lithosphere is a geometric consequence we refer to such kinks in the plate boundary as a subduction transform edge propagator or step other steps are the north and south ends of the lesser antilles trench the north end of the south sandwich trench the south end of the vrancea trench and both ends of the calabria trench volcanism near steps is distinct from typical arc volcanism in some cases slab edges appear to coincide with mantle plumes using 3d mechanical models we establish that step faults are stable plate tectonic features in most circumstances in the probably rare cases that the resistance to fault propagation is high slab break off will occur relative motion along the transform segment of the plate boundary often is non uniform and the step is not a transform plate boundary in the rigid plate tectonics sense of the phrase step propagation may result in substantial deformation rotation topography and sedimentary basins with a very specific time space evolution surface velocities are substantially affected by nearby steps

tsunamis and splay fault dynamics 1 the geometry of a fault system can have significant effects on tsunami generation but most tsunami models to date have not investigated the dynamic processes that determine which path rupture will take in a complex fault system to gain insight into this problem we use the 3d finite element method to model the dynamics of a plate boundary splay fault system we use the resulting ground deformation as a time dependent boundary condition for a 2d shallow water hydrodynamic tsunami calculation we find that if the stress distribution is homogeneous rupture remains on the plate boundary thrust when a barrier is introduced along the strike of the plate boundary thrust rupture propagates to the splay faults and produces a significantly larger tsunami than in the homogeneous case the results have implications for the dynamics of megathrust earthquakes and also suggest that dynamic earthquake modeling may be a useful tool in tsunami research

physics based scenario of earthquake cycles on the ventura thrust system california the effect of variable friction and fault geometry the ventura thrust system in california is capable of producing large magnitude earthquakes geological studies suggest that the fault geometry is complex composed of multiple segments at different dips thrust ramps dipping 30 50 linked with bed parallel decollements dipping 10 these latter types of gently dipping faults form due to preexisting weaknesses in the crust and therefore have different frictional parameters from thrust ramps the faults also experience different stresses because of how stresses are resolved onto the fault planes here we use a two dimensional fault model to assess how geometry and frictional properties of the ramp decollement system should affect the seismic cycle we test velocity strengthening velocity weakening and conditionally stable decollements and in addition explore how the dip angle of the decollement changes the earthquake behavior a velocity strengthening decollement cannot replicate the through going earthquake ruptures that have been inferred for the ventura fault system we therefore suggest that this and other decollements may be better represented using a velocity weakening or conditionally stable response our results show that minor variations in fault geometry produce slip amounts and recurrence intervals that differ only by 10 20 but do not fundamentally alter the types of earthquakes and interseismic slip we conclude that geological constraints on fault geometry are typically sufficient to produce modeled earthquake sequences that are statistically consistent with paleoseismic records however both frictional parameters along the fault and effective normal stress influence earthquake rupture patterns significantly more research is needed to adequately constrain these quantities in order for earthquake rupture models to work as effective predictors of fault behavior

probabilities for jumping fault segment stepovers 1 seismic hazard analysis relies heavily on the segmentation of faults the ability of ruptures to break multiple segments has a big impact on estimated hazard current practice for estimating multiple segment breakage relies on panels of experts voting on their opinions for each case here we explore the probability of elastodynamic ruptures jumping segment stepovers in numerical simulations of segmented fault systems we find a simple functional form for the probability of jumping a segment stepover as a function of stepover distance an exponential falloff with distance we suggest this simple parameterization of jumping probabilities combined with sparse observational data to fix the lengthscale parameter as a new approach to estimating multisegment earthquake hazard

a model of the earthquake cycle along the san andreas fault system for the past 1000 years 1 we simulate 1000 years of the earthquake cycle along the san andreas fault system by convolving best estimates of interseismic and coseismic slip with the green s function for a point dislocation in an elastic plate overlying a viscoelastic half space interseismic slip rate is based on long term geological estimates while fault locking depths are derived from horizontal gps measurements coseismic and postseismic deformation is modeled using 70 earthquake ruptures compiled from both historical data and paleoseismic data this time dependent velocity model is compared with 290 present day geodetic velocity vectors to place bounds on elastic plate thickness and viscosity of the underlying substrate best fit models rms residual of 2 46 mm yr require an elastic plate thickness greater than 60 km and a substrate viscosity between 2 1018 and 5 1019 pa s these results highlight the need for vertical velocity measurements developed over long time spans 20 years our numerical models are also used to investigate the 1000 year evolution of coulomb stress stress is largely independent of assumed rheology but is very sensitive to the slip history on each fault segment as expected present day coulomb stress is high along the entire southern san andreas because there have been no major earthquakes over the past 150 300 years animations s1 and s2 of the time evolution of vector displacement and coulomb stress are available as auxiliary material

differentiating simple and composite tectonic landscapes using numerical fault slip modeling with an example from the south central alborz mountains iran 1 the tectonically driven growth of mountains reflects the characteristics of the underlying fault systems and the applied tectonic forces over time fault networks might be relatively static but stress conditions could change and result in variations in fault slip orientation such a tectonic landscape would transition from a simple to a composite state the topography of simple landscapes is correlated with a single set of tectonic boundary conditions while composite landscapes contain inherited topography due to earlier deformation under different boundary conditions we use fault interaction modeling to compare vertical displacement fields with topographic metrics to differentiate the two types of landscapes by successively rotating the axis of maximum horizontal stress we produce a suite of vertical displacement fields for comparison with real landscapes we apply this model to a transpressional duplex in the south central alborz mountains of iran where nw oriented compression was superseded by neotectonic ne compression the consistency between the modeled displacement field and real landforms indicates that the duplex topography is mostly compatible with the modern boundary conditions but might include a small remnant from the earlier deformation phase our approach is applicable for various tectonic settings and represents an approach to identify the changing boundary conditions that produce composite landscapes it may be particularly useful for identifying changes that occurred in regions where river profiles may no longer record a signal of the change or where the spatial pattern of uplift is complex

current plate movements across the mid atlantic ridge determined from 5 years of continuous gps measurements in iceland 1 we analyze data spanning up to 5 years from 18 continuous gps stations in iceland computing daily positions of the stations with three different high level geodetic processing software packages we observe large scale crustal deformation due to plate spreading across iceland the observed plate divergence between the north american and the eurasian plates is in general agreement with existing models of plate motion spreading is taken up within a 100 150 km wide plate boundary zone that runs through the island of the two parallel branches of the plate boundary in south iceland the eastern volcanic zone is currently taking up the majority of the spreading and little is left for the western volcanic zone the plate boundary deformation field has been locally and temporarily affected in south iceland by two mw 6 5 earthquakes in june 2000 inflation at katla volcano during 2000 to 2004 and an eruption of hekla volcano in february 2000 all stations with significant vertical velocities are moving up relative to the reference station reyk with the highest velocity exceeding 20 mm yr in the center of the island

fault creep and microseismicity on the hayward fault california implications for asperity size 1 the hayward fault is documented to undergo significant creep with some patches accommodating 50 or more of the long term fault displacement in spite of this the fault has also experienced moderate to large earthquakes by comparing the patterns of microseismicity observed on the fault with models of fault zone creep we can investigate the long term displacement deformation history of the fault in terms of the relative roles of aseismic creep fault slip accommodated through microseismicity and strain accumulation slip deficit we find that microseismicity on the hayward fault produces a negligible percentage of the seismic moment dissipated on the fault combining seismicity with our fault creep models allows us to calculate the size of asperities on the creeping fault for small asperities associated with repeating earthquakes on the hayward fault the rupture areas of these asperities range from 20 to 60 m2

stress interaction between subduction earthquakes and forearc strike slip faults modeling and application to the northern caribbean plate boundary 1 strike slip faults in the forearc region of a subduction zone often present significant seismic hazard because of their proximity to population centers we explore the interaction between thrust events on the subduction interface and strike slip faults within the forearc region using three dimensional models of static coulomb stress change model results reveal that subduction earthquakes with slip vectors subparallel to the trench axis enhance the coulomb stress on strike slip faults adjacent to the trench but reduce the stress on faults farther back in the forearc region in contrast subduction events with slip vectors perpendicular to the trench axis enhance the coulomb stress on strike slip faults farther back in the forearc while reducing the stress adjacent to the trench a significant contribution to coulomb stress increase on strike slip faults in the back region of the forearc comes from unclamping of the fault i e reduction in normal stress due to thrust motion on the subduction interface we argue that although coulomb stress changes from individual subduction earthquakes are ephemeral their cumulative effects on the pattern of lithosphere deformation in the forearc region are significant we use the coulomb stress models to explain the contrasting deformation pattern between two adjacent segments of the caribbean subduction zone subduction earthquakes with slip vectors nearly perpendicular to the caribbean trench axis is dominant in the hispaniola segment where the strike slip faults are more than 60 km inland from the trench in contrast subduction slip motion is nearly parallel to the caribbean trench axis along the puerto rico segment where the strike slip fault is less than 15 km from the trench this observed jump from a strike slip fault close to the trench axis in the puerto rico segment to the inland faults in hispaniola is explained by different distributions of coulomb stress in the forearc region of the two segments as a result of the change from the nearly trench parallel slip on the puerto rico subduction interface to the more perpendicular subduction slip beneath hispaniola the observations and modeling suggest that subduction induced strike slip seismic hazard to puerto rico may be smaller than previously assumed but the hazard to hispaniola remains high

evidence for a supershear transient during the 2002 denali fault earthquake elastodynamic considerations suggest that the acceleration of ruptures to supershear velocities is accompanied by the release of rayleigh waves along the fault from the stress breakdown zone these waves generate a secondary slip pulse trailing the rupture front but manifest almost entirely in ground motion perpendicular to the fault in the near source region we construct a spontaneously propagating rupture model exhibiting these features and use it to explain ground motions recorded during the 2002 denali fault earthquake at pump station 10 located 3 km from the fault we show that the initial pulses on both the fault normal and fault parallel components are due to the supershear stress release on the fault whereas the later arriving fault normal pulses result from the trailing subshear slip pulse on the fault online material mpeg movies of rupture history and ground motion

vertically transferred overpressures in brunei evidence for a new mechanism for the formation of high magnitude overpressure overpressures in sedimentary basins are commonly assumed to be the result of two distinct and separate mechanisms disequilibrium compaction and fluid expansion however the potential for overpressures to be redistributed or transferred to other pressure compartments over time has been seldom considered and rarely demonstrated pore pressure data and velocity effective stress plots from 61 fields across the baram delta province of brunei northwest borneo reveal that two different types of overpressure occur in stratigraphically defined sections the basal pro delta shales contain overpressures generated by disequilibrium compaction whereas the overlying sand shale deltaic sequence contains overpressures that appear to be generated by fluid expansion however the geology of the deltaic sequences and high magnitude of the pore pressures precludes the overpressures in the deltaic sequences being generated by any conventional fluid expansion mechanism such as kerogen to gas maturation or clay diagenesis the fluid expansion overpressures are located in fields that were inverted during the pliocene an event that resulted in large scale fluid migration from the pro delta shales into the deltaic sequences including charging of the numerous oil fields in the inner shelf hence we propose that the overpressures in brunei provide the first evidence for a new overpressuring mechanism whereby overpressured fluids have been vertically transferred from the pro delta shales into the deltaic sequences during basin inversion furthermore vertical transfer may be a mechanism for explaining overpressures observed in basins that have been recently uplifted or inverted