the structure of red infrared scattergrams of semivegetated landscapes a physically based linear stochastic geometric canopy soil reflectance model is presented for characterizing spatial variability of semivegetated landscapers at subpixel and regional scales landscapes are conceptualized as stochastic geometric surfaces incorporating not only the variability in geometric elements but also the variability in vegetation and soil background reflectance which can be important in some scenes the model is used to investigate several possible mechanisms which contribute to the often observed characteristic triangular shape of red infrared scattergrams of semivegetated landscapes scattergrams of simulated semivegetated scenes are analyzed with respect to the scales of the satellite pixel and subpixel components

the brittle plastic transition and the depth of seismic faulting a simple rheological model of shearing of the lithosphere that has gained wide acceptance is a two layer model with an upper brittle zone in which deformation takes place by frictional sliding on discrete fault surfaces and a lower plastic zone in which deformation takes place by bulk plastic flow the two are separated by an abrupt brittle plastic transition which is assumed to be indicated by the lower limit of seismicity experimental studies however as well as the deformation structures of mylonites indicate that a broad transitional field of semi brittle behavior lies between these extremes this is a field of mixed mode deformation with a strength that can be expected to be considerably higher than that predicted from the extrapolation of high temperature flow laws for quartzofeldspathic rocks the semi brittle field lies between t1 the onset of quartz plasticity at about 300 c and t2 feldspar plasticity at about 450 c a model is presented in which the transition t1 does not correspond to a transition to bulk flow but to a change from unstable velocity weakening friction to stable velocity strengthening friction t1 thus marks the depth limit of earthquake nucleation but large earthquakes can propagate to a greater depth t3 t3 t2 which corresponds to the lower limit of dynamic frictional behavior in the semi brittle field and approximately to the peak in strength the zone between t1 and t3 is one of alternating behavior with flow occurring m the interseismic period and with co seismic dynamic slip occurring during large earthquakes this zone is characterized by mylonites interlaced by pseudotachylytes and other signs of dynamic faulting the transition t1 is also marked by a change in the generation mechanism of fault rocks from abrasive wear above which produces cataclastites to adhesive wear below which is proposed as an important generation mechanism of mylonites in the upper part of the semi brittle field

the 1989 loma prieta earthquake imaged from inversion of geodetic data we invert geodetic measurements of coseismic deformation from the 1989 ms7 1 loma prieta earthquake to determine the geometry of the fault and the distribution of slip on the fault plane the data include electronic distance measurements global positioning system and very long baseline interferometry vectors and elevation changes derived from spirit leveling the fault is modeled as a rectangular dislocation surface in a homogeneous elastic half space first we assume that the slip on the fault is uniform and estimate the position orientation and size of the fault plane using a nonlinear quasi newton algorithm the best fitting dislocation strikes n48 4 w and dips 76 9 sw consistent with the trend of the aftershock zone and moment tensor solutions bootstrap resampling of the data is used to graphically illustrate the uncertainty in the location of the rupture plane the 95 confidence envelope overlaps the aftershock zone arguing that there is not a significant discrepancy between the geodetic data and the aftershock locations second we estimate the slip distribution using the best fitting uniform slip fault orientation but increase the fault length to 40 km and the downdip width to 18 km the fault is divided into 162 subfaults 18 along strike and 9 along dip each subfault is allowed to have constant right lateral and reverse components of slip we then solve for the slip on each subfault that minimizes a linear combination of the norm of the weighted data residual and the roughness of the slip distribution the smoothing parameter which determines the relative weight put on fitting the data versus smoothing the slip distribution is chosen by cross validation simulations indicate that cross validation estimates of the smoothing parameter are nearly optimal the preferred slip distribution is very heterogeneous with maximum strike slip and dip slip of about 5 and 8 m respectively located roughly 10 km north of the hypocenter there is insignificant dip slip in the southeastern most part of the fault causing the rake to vary from nearly pure right lateral in the southeast to oblique right reverse in the northwest the change in rake is consistent with a uniform stress field if the fault dip increases by about 10 toward the southeast as indicated by the aftershock locations there was little slip above 4 km depth consistent with the observation that there was little if any surface rupture

physical properties and state of the crust and upper mantle of the eastern mediterranean sea deduced from geophysical data abstract by evaluating the geophysical information available for the eastern mediterranean sea ems a crustal thickness map and some conclusions as to the nature of the crustal type were drawn it was found that the ionian abyssal plain is floored by an oceanic type of crust which is 14 km thick and covered by sediments of the order of 8 km thick the herodotus abyssal plain in the levantine sea is floored by a crust 22 km thick and covered by sediments ranging between 10 and 15 km thick the eastern mediterranean rise extending more or less continuously from the apulian plateau to rhodes and the south of the antalya basin is of a thickness ranging between 28 and 34 km the thickness of its sedimentary cover is of the order of 10 km the borders of the eastern mediterranean sea are built up of thick continental crust for example the hellenides of western greece range between 40 and 44 km thick and western turkey has a similar crustal thickness the crust of sicily also exceeds 40 km whereas the southern and eastern borders of the ems are approximately 30 32 km thick tectonically the northern border of the ems is built up of active continental margins defined by the calabrian hellenic and cyprus antalya arcs whereas the southern border represents a passive continental margin controlled mainly by subsidence and stretching to the east the dead sea megashear limits the area the deep basins of the eastern mediterranean sea are tectonically controlled by subsidence and partial stretching the mediterranean ridge or rise is still an area of dispute regarded by some authors as a subsiding continental fragment and separated from the hellenic arc by the hellenic trench whereas others consider it to be a zone of crustal shortening thickened mainly by thrusting both the western and southwestern borders of the mediterranean rise and the hellenides are controlled by compressional processes similar to those deforming the calabrian arc the stravo and pliny trenches to the east southeast border of the hellenic arc are partly affected by strike slip movements various plate tectonic models of the area have been proposed by several authors though the complexity of the deformation hardly permits reliable reconstructions the lack of reliable paleomagnetic information and the absence of linear magnetic anomalies do not favour the application of plate tectonic concepts vertical processes due to the uprising of lithothermal systems below the hellenic and calabrian arcs may also be regarded as the driving force controlling the present day deformation

the motion of crustal blocks driven by flow of the lower lithosphere and implications for slip rates of continental strike slip faults geodetic measurements in actively deforming areas of the continents reveal the pattern of deformation in the lithosphere if the dominant forces acting on crustal blocks are tractions at their bases then the long term motion of each block will be given by the average velocity of the underlying lithosphere slip rates between blocks estimated in this way from recent geodetic measurements across fault zones in the south island of new zealand and southern california are in good agreement with slip rates estimated geologically

seismic hazard in the marmara sea region following the 17 august 1999 izmit earthquake on 17 august 1999 a destructive magnitude 7 4 earthquake occurred 100 km east of istanbul near the city of izmit on the north anatolian fault this 1 600 km long plate boundary 1 2 slips at an average rate of 2 3 cm yr 1 refs 3 5 and historically has been the site of many devastating earthquakes 6 7 this century alone it has ruptured over 900 km of its length 6 models of earthquake induced stress change 8 combined with active fault maps 9 had been used to forecast that the epicentral area of the 1999 izmit event was indeed a likely location for the occurrence of a large earthquake 9 10 here we show that the 1999 event itself significantly modifies the stress distribution resulting from previous fault interactions 9 10 our new stress models take into account all events in the region with magnitudes greater than 6 having occurred since 1700 ref 7 as well as secular interseismic stress change constrained by gps data 11 these models provide a consistent picture of the long term spatio temporal behaviour of the north anatolian fault and indicate that two events of magnitude equal to or greater than the izmit earthquake are likely to occur within the next decades beneath the marmara sea south of istanbul

a 135 000 year vostok specmap common temporal framework the object of the present study is to introduce a means of comparing the vostok and marine chronologies our strategy has been to use the 18o of atmospheric o2 denoted 18oatm from the vostok ice core as a proxy for the 18o of seawater denoted 18osw our underlying premise in using 18oatm as a proxy for 18osw is that past variations in 18osw an indicator of continental ice volume have been transmitted to the atmospheric o2 reservoir by photosynthesizing organisms in the surface waters of the world s oceans we compare our record of 18oatm to the 18osw record which has been developed from studies of the isotopic composition of biogenic calcite 18oforam in deep sea cores we have tied our 18oatm record from vostok to the specmap timescale throughout the last 135 kyr by correlating 18oatm with a 18osw record from v19 30 results of the correlation indicate that 77 of the variance is shared between these two records we observed differences between the 18oatm and the 18osw records during the coldest periods which indicate that there have been subtle changes in the factors which regulate 18oatm other than 18osw our use of 18oatm as a proxy for 18osw must therefore be considered tentative especially during these periods by correlating 18oatm with 18osw we provide a common temporal framework for comparing phase relationships between atmospheric records from ice cores and oceanographic records constructed from deep sea cores our correlated age depth relation for the vostok core should not be considered an absolute vostok timescale we consider it to be the preferred timescale for comparing vostok climate records with marine climate records which have been placed on the specmap timescale we have examined the fidelity of this common temporal framework by comparing sea surface temperature sst records from sediment cores with an antarctic temperature record from the vostok ice core we have demonstrated that when the southern ocean sst and antarctic temperature records are compared on this common temporal framework they show a high degree of similarity we interpret this result as supporting our use of the common temporal framework for comparing other climate records from the vostok ice core with any climate record that has been correlated into the specmap chronology

postseismic strain following the 1989 loma prieta earthquake from gps and leveling measurements postseismic deformation in the 5 years following the 1989 loma prieta earthquake has been measured with the global positioning system and precise leveling postearthquake velocities at distances greater than 20 km from the coseismic rupture are not significantly different from those observed in the 20 years prior to the earthquake however velocities at stations within 20 km of the rupture exceed preearthquake rates and exhibit unanticipated contraction normal to the strike of the san andreas fault system a combination of forward modeling and nonlinear optimization suggests that the observed postseismic deformations were caused by aseismic oblique reverse slip averaging 2 9 cm yr on the san andreas fault and or the loma prieta rupture zone and 2 4 cm yr reverse slip along a buried fault within the foothills thrust belt the best fitting sources of postseismic deformation are all located at depths of less than 15 km we find no evidence for accelerated flow or shear below the loma prieta rupture in the first 5 years following the earthquake the inferred postseismic slip is likely to have been caused by the coseismic stress change updip of the 1989 rupture

radar interferometry and its application to changes in the earth s surface geophysical applications of radar interferometry to measure changes in the earth s surface have exploded in the early 1990s this new geodetic technique calculates the interference pattern caused by the difference in phase between two images acquired by a spaceborne synthetic aperture radar at two distinct times the resulting interferogram is a contour map of the change in distance between the ground and the radar instrument these maps provide an unsurpassed spatial sampling density 100 pixels km 2 a competitive precision 1 cm and a useful observation cadence 1 pass month 1 they record movements in the crust perturbations in the atmosphere dielectric modifications in the soil and relief in the topography they are also sensitive to technical effects such as relative variations in the radar s trajectory or variations in its frequency standard we describe how all these phenomena contribute to an interferogram then a practical summary explains the techniques for calculating and manipulating interferograms from various radar instruments including the four satellites currently in orbit ers 1 ers 2 jers 1 and radarsat the next chapter suggests some guidelines for interpreting an interferogram as a geophysical measurement respecting the limits of the technique assessing its uncertainty recognizing artifacts and discriminating different types of signal we then review the geophysical applications published to date most of which study deformation related to earthquakes volcanoes and glaciers using ers 1 data we also show examples of monitoring natural hazards and environmental alterations related to landslides subsidence and agriculture in addition we consider subtler geophysical signals such as postseismic relaxation tidal loading of coastal areas and interseismic strain accumulation we conclude with our perspectives on the future of radar interferometry the objective of the review is for the reader to develop the physical understanding necessary to calculate an interferogram and the geophysical intuition necessary to interpret it

viscoelastic flow in the lower crust after the 1992 landers california earthquake space geodesy showed that broad scale postseismic deformation occurred after the 1992 landers earthquake three dimensional modeling shows that afterslip can only explain one horizontal component of the postseismic deformation whereas viscoelastic flow can explain the horizontal and near vertical displacements the viscosity of a weak about 10 km thick layer in the lower crust beneath the rupture zone that controls the rebound is about 10 18 pascal seconds the viscoelastic behavior of the lower crust may help to explain the extensional structures observed in the basin and range province and it may be used for the analysis of earthquake hazard

equivalent strike slip earthquake cycles in half space and lithosphere asthenosphere earth models by virtue of the images used in the dislocation solution the deformation at the free surface produced throughout the earthquake cycle by slippage on a long strike slip fault in an earth model consisting of an elastic plate lithosphere overlying a viscoelastic half space asthenosphere can be duplicated by prescribed slip on a vertical fault embedded in an elastic half space for the case in which each earthquake ruptures the entire lithosphere thickness h the half space equivalent slip rate is as follows depth interval 0 h slip identical to that in lithosphere asthenosphere model i e abrupt coseismic slip and no subsequent slip depth interval 2n 1 h to 2n 1 h n 1 2 slip rate uniform in space and dependent upon time as fn t exp t a where fn is a n 1 degree polynomial in t a is twice the asthenosphere relaxation time and t is measured from the instant after the preceding earthquake the slip rate averaged over the seismic cycle in each depth interval equals the secular rate of relative plate motion for reasonable values of a slip rates below 5h do not vary much from that mean value and can be treated as constant thus the surface deformation due to the earthquake cycle in the lithosphere asthenosphere model can be calculated very simply from the half space model with time dependent slip in the two depth intervals h 3h and 3h 5h and uniform slip at a rate equal to the secular relative plate velocity below depth 5h inversion of 1973 1988 geodetic measurements of deformation across the segment of the san andreas fault in the transverse ranges north of los angeles for the half space equivalent slip distribution suggests no significant slip on the fault above 30 km and a uniform slip rate of 36 mm yr below 30 km one equivalent lithosphere asthenosphere model would have a 30 km thick lithosphere and an asthenosphere relaxation time greater than 33 years but other models are possible

crustal earthquake instability in relation to the depth variation of frictional slip properties recent stability studies using constitutive relations of the type found by dieterich ruina and others to describe frictional slip of rocks in the laboratory have provided a new explanation of the depth cutoff of shallow crustal earthquakes the class of friction laws discussed has the property that the sliding stress depends on normal stress temperature slip rate and slip history for sliding at a fixed slip rate v and fixed environment e g normal stress temperature etc the shear strength evolves toward a steady state value ss v stability analysis show that for d ss v dv 0 velocity strengthening implies stable steady state sliding at least for a broad class of constitutive laws more fully described in the paper experiments by dieterich and by tullis and weeks on westerly granite with mature sliding surfaces indicate that d ss v dv is negative at room temperature whereas higher temperature experiments by stesky show that d ss v dv becomes positive above approximately 300 c therefore in the case of the earth where temperature increases with depth the above observations seem to suggest that the depth cutoff of crustal earthquake activity can be understood in terms of the variation of the frictional response with depth from a regime with d ss v dv 0 this is not inconsistent with but rather refines the suggestion by sibson and others that the depth cutoff is due to a transition from brittle friction to ductile flow further our results show definitively that the shallow depth confinement of seismicity is compatible with a model in which deformation is localized to a fault zone extending well below the seismogenic depth the depth confinement does not require a model showing transition to a zone of broadly distributed creep flow beneath the seismogenic zone following mavko a two dimensional quasi static strike slip fault model is analyzed but using different numerical procedures and a depth variation of frictional properties based on the laboratory data mentioned above and the lachenbruch sass depth variation of temperature for the san andreas fault the resulting predictions of such features as the confinement of crustal earthquakes to shallow depths the development of locked patches the recurrence time for the seismic cycle the seismic stress drop and displacement etc are generally in agreement with the observed characteristics of large scale strike slip earthquakes along the san andreas fault calculations based on the laboratory data predict for example that stick slip nucleates around 5 7 km that large seismic motion occurs around the nucleation depth and above but diminishes gradually to zero at 13 15 km depths that rapid postseismic creep occurs over another 3 4 km depth and that at greater depths steady slip consistent with the average plate velocity is only modestly perturbed by the earthquakes occurring above the most uncertain parameter is the slip weakening distance l for evolution of fault surface state we illustrate how features of the predicted earthquake cycles vary with l over the range for which calculations are feasible

correction to transient creep of a composite lower crust 2 a polymineralic basis for rapidly evolving postseismic deformation modes by erik r ivins

stress coupling between earthquakes in northwest turkey and the north aegean sea we have investigated the coulomb stress interactions of 29 earthquakes m s greater than or equal to 6 0 that have occurred in the region of northwest turkey and north aegean sea since 1912 of these events 23 may be related to earlier events and 16 are clearly related to earlier events all events after 1967 are related to previous events events in the early part of our time interval that show no correlation could be related to historical events as yet unidentified in some cases faults that have received a stress reduction from earlier events are prepared for an event by an earthquake occurring a few years before that creates a local coulomb stress rise thus regions of coulomb stress shadow can become regions where a damaging earthquake may occur the relation between smaller events and the coulomb stress distribution is less clear but may be related to poor data quality and practical limitations of our modeling technique nonetheless there are 4 times as many events per unit area in regions of enhanced stress than where stress is reduced we discuss the contemporary distribution of coulomb stress and argue that it is possible to identify the likely locations of future damaging earthquakes including identifying the most likely candidate faults

coseismic and postseismic fault slip for the 17 august 1999 m 7 5 izmit turkey earthquake we use global positioning system gps observations and elastic half space models to estimate the distribution of coseismic and postseismic slip along the izmit earthquake rupture our results indicate that large coseismic slip reaching 5 7 meters is confined to the upper 10 kilometers of the crust correlates with structurally distinct fault segments and is relatively low near the hypocenter continued surface deformation during the first 75 days after the earthquake indicates an aseismic fault slip of as much as 0 43 meters on and below the coseismic rupture these observations are consistent with a transition from unstable episodic large earthquakes to stable fault creep sliding at the base of the seismogenic zone

mobility of continental mantle evidence from postseismic geodetic observations following the 1992 landers earthquake the crust around the rupture zone of the 1992 landers earthquake has continued to deform in the years following the earthquake at rates 3 times greater than pre earthquake rates we use a combination of global positioning system gps and synthetic aperture radar insar data collected during a 3 year epoch following the earthquake in order to investigate postseismic mechanisms responsible for the high transient velocities in order to maximize the potential signal from viscoelastic relaxation we evaluate and model postseismic relaxation following the first few months of documented accelerated deformation the combination of gps and insar data allows us to establish viscoelastic relaxation of the lower crust and upper mantle as the dominant postseismic process and to discriminate among possible viscoelastic models the data particularly require the presence of a highly ductile uppermost mantle beneath the central mojave domain with temperature between the wet and dry basalt solidus this is consistent with independent seismic and geochemical inferences of a regionally warm uppermost mantle further consideration of seismic velocity variations in conjunction with faulting patterns within the mojave desert suggests that the primary faulting characteristics of the mojave desert namely the pervasive late cenozoic deformation within the eastern california shear zone versus the near absence of faults in the western mojave domain are controlled by the rheology of the uppermost mantle

postseismic relaxation theory on the spherical earth abstract postseismic displacements and strains observed at the earth9s surface can be explained through the relaxation of a viscoelastic asthenosphere underlying a purely elastic crust a theory is presented for modeling the effects of postseismic relaxation on a spherically symmetric earth for an earthquake point source located in the upper elastic layer the displacement field is decomposed into its toroidal and spheroidal components a linear maxwell rheology in the viscoelastic layers is assumed enabling the use of the correspondence principle for the solutions of the equations of static equilibrium displacement and strain fields are then calculated using normal mode summation computational results are presented for two simple earthquake sources a strike slip fault and a uniaxial thrust fault the patterns of postseismic displacements and strains are found to depend strongly on both the earth model and earthquake source geometry in particular the elastic plate thickness asthenosphere thickness fault type and fault length each play a major role in determining the spatial pattern of postseismic relaxation effects asthenospheric viscosity controls the temporal pattern of relaxation

microplate versus continuum descriptions of active tectonic deformation whether deformation of continents is more accurately described by the motions of a few small rigid plates or by quasi continuous flow has important implications for lithospheric dynamics fault mechanics and earthquake hazard assessment actively deforming regions of the western united states central asia japan and new zealand show features that argue for both styles of movement but new observations are necessary to determine which is most appropriate and at what scale the description applies geologic geodetic seismic and paleomagnetic measurements tend to sample complementary aspects of the deformation field so an integrated observation program can utilize the strengths of each method and overcome their separate spatial or temporal biases provided the total relative motion across each region is known and the distribution of active faults is well mapped determination of fault slip rates can provide potentially decisive constraints reconnaissance geological studies supply useful slip rate estimates but precise values depend upon detailed intensive investigation of individual sites geodetic survey measurements can determine the spatial pattern of contemporary movements and extract slip rate information but the sometimes elusive effects of cyclic elastic strain buildup and relief must be accounted for in relating current movements to the long term deformation pattern earthquake catalogs can be applied to determine seismic strain rates and relative velocities but must be averaged over large regions and are usually limited by the inadequate duration of historical or instrumental seismicity catalogs paleomagnetic determinations of vertical axis rotations provide estimates of block rotation rates but are often locally variable and averaged over many millions of years which of the two descriptions of continental tectonics is more nearly correct depends on the local rheological stratification of the lithosphere especially the strength and thickness of the elastic crust relative to the ductile lithosphere and dynamical models can provide contrasting forecasts of observable features with testable consequences

strain localization along the san andreas fault consequences for loading mechanisms the orientation of the near fault strain accumulation associated with the relative motion between the pacific and north american plates is better predicted by the orientation of the local faulting than by the orientation of the regional plate motion this observation follows from consideration of shear strain results from geodetic studies ranging from the imperial valley to shelter cove along the san andreas fault system this set of results includes calculations from regions where the faulting and plate motion are considerably oblique to each other both the localization of the strain associated with pacific north american motion and the orientation of the associated strain can be simply caused by failure of the lithosphere as opposed to localization of plate driving forces two types of models for the rheology and geometry of lithospheric failure have been prevalent in the geodetic literature 1 viscoelastic models which are dominated by horizontal layering of the crust and 2 elastic half space models with geometry which is dominantly vertical horizontal models can accommodate the observed strain results only if postseismic relaxation times are long compared to the repeat times of large earthquakes vertical models produce strains which are parallel to the local structure at all times if the horizontal detachments of the viscoelastic models exist they must be at depths 2 3 times the seismogenic thickness geologic studies also indicate that major transcurrent features extend as ductile shear zones to depths much larger than would be expected in horizontal models these considerations lead us to favor models with vertical geometries the vertical structure of these models can be reconciled with laboratory measurements of rock strength through the strain softening processes associated with flow of composite materials such as quartzo feldspathic rocks independent of the horizontal rheological layering in the starting low strain material progressive deformation will lead to preferential weakening in the plane of shear and to the development of a shear zone which will always be weaker than the surrounding material thus shear zones such as the san andreas system develop vertical tabular geometries which extend far below the brittle plastic transition and which are mechanically persistent

global positioning system constraints on plate kinematics and dynamics in the eastern mediterranean and caucasus we present and interpret global positioning system gps measurements of crustal motions for the period 1988 1997 at 189 sites extending east west from the caucasus mountains to the adriatic sea and north south from the southern edge of the eurasian plate to the northern edge of the african plate sites on the northern arabian platform move 18 2 mm yr at n25 5 w relative to eurasia less than the nuvel 1a circuit closure rate 25 1 mm yr at n21 7 w preliminary motion estimates 1994 1997 for stations located in egypt on the northeastern part of africa show northward motion at 5 6 2 mm yr also slower than nuvel ia estimates 10 1 mm yr at n2 4 e eastern turkey is characterized by distributed deformation while central turkey is characterized by coherent plate motion internal deformation of 2 mm yr involving westward displacement and counterclockwise rotation of the anatolian plate the anatolian plate is de coupled from eurasia along the right lateral strike slip north anatolian fault naf we derive a best fitting euler vector for anatolia eurasia motion of 30 7 0 8 n 32 6 0 4 e 1 2 0 1 myr the euler vector gives an upper bound for naf slip rate of 24 1 mm yr we determine a preliminary gps arabia anatolia euler vector of 32 9 1 2 n 40 3 1 1 e 0 8 0 2 myr and an upper bound on left lateral slip on the east anatolian fault eaf of 9 1 mm yr the central and southern aegean is characterized by coherent motion internal deformation of 2 mm yr toward the sw at 30 1 mm yr relative to eurasia stations in the se aegean deviate significantly from the overall motion of the southern aegean showing increasing velocities toward the trench and reaching 10 1 mm yr relative to the southern aegean as a whole

gps and geologic estimates of the tectonic activity in the marmara sea region nw anatolia a dense network of 52 global positioning system gps sites is used to determine the velocity field and strain rate pattern at the western end of the north anatolian fault zone nafz in the marmara sea region nw anatolia based on four gps campaigns carried out biannually between 1990 and 1996 the detailed kinematic field of crustal motion is calculated the southernmost station shows an average rate of 22 3 mm yr oriented westward relative to istanbul eurasia this value is indicative of the dextral strike slip motion of nw anatolia relative to the black sea the gps velocity field reveals that the sites located on the thrace black sea block show negligible motion relative to istanbul the gps based deformation pattern of three sections crossing the westward prolongation of the nafz is compared with neotectonic data both the gps and the neotectonic data give clear evidence that most of the deformation occurs along a relatively narrow e w oriented zone this belt extends from the single fault trace of the nafz through the gulf of izmit the marmara sea the arkoy region and the gulf of saros into the north aegean trough nat in addition the cross sections show the increasing influence of the n s oriented extension in the aegean sea region from the comparison of the directions and rates of shear and normal strain deduced from gps data with geologic and seismic observations we conclude that the most active zone of dextral shear follows a line along mudurnu valley the northern marmara sea and the saros trough where it joins the nat

heightened odds of large earthquakes near istanbul an interaction based probability calculation we calculate the probability of strong shaking in istanbul an urban center of 10 million people from the description of earthquakes on the north anatolian fault system in the marmara sea during the past 500 years and test the resulting catalog against the frequency of damage in istanbul during the preceding millennium departing from current practice we include the time dependent effect of stress transferred by the 1999 moment magnitude m 7 4 izmit earthquake to faults nearer to istanbul we find a 62 15 probability one standard deviation of strong shaking during the next 30 years and 32 12 during the next decade