3 d inhomogeneities in the upper mantle abstract the method developed by aki christofferson and husebye for determining a 3 d seismic image of the earth s interior from the travel time data obtained at a 2 d array has been applied to seventeen arrays around the world by various authors the most outstanding results from these works are that small scale lateral velocity anomalies exist in the lower crust and upper mantle everywhere studied the reality of these deep seated anomalies is supported by 1 1 significant reduction of residual variance 2 2 resolution analysis for decoupling from shallower anomalies and 3 3 error analysis for the significance of anomalies in this paper we try to strengthen the credibility of these deep seated anomalies by drawing attention to those found where they were expected namely low velocity bodies under several geothermal areas and high velocity anomalies associated with the subducting plate

a fractal model for crustal deformation abstract we hypothesize that crustal deformation occurs on a scale invariant matrix of faults for simplicity we consider a two dimensional pattern of hexagons on which strike slip faulting occurs the behavior of the system is controlled by a single parameter the fractal dimension deformation occurs on all scales of faults the fractal dimension determines the fraction of the total displacement that occurs on the first order or primary faults the value of the fractal dimension can be obtained from the frequency magnitude relation for earthquakes our results are applied to the san andreas fault system in central california earthquake studies give d 1 90 we associate the main strand of the san andreas fault with the primary faults of our fractal system we predict that the relative velocity across the main strand is 2 93 cm yr the remainder of the relative velocity of 5 5 cm yr between the pacific and north american plates occurs on higher order faults the predicted value is in reasonably good agreement with the value 3 39 0 29 cm yr obtained from geological studies

teleseismic detection of a slow precursor to the great 1989 macquarie ridge earthquake low frequency spectra for the 1989 macquarie ridge earthquake magnitude 8 2 show an amplitude increase and a phase delay decrease below 6 millihertz that require a short term slow precursor this earthquake can be modeled as a compound event in which a fast rupturing ordinary earthquake was initiated by an episode of slow smooth deformation that began more than 100 seconds before the main shock the moment released in the slow precursor was large about 3 x 10 20 newton meters equivalent to an event of magnitude 7 6 the data are consistent with the precursor being generated in a region of the oceanic upper mantle below the main rupture

probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes we present long term and short term forecasts for magnitude 5 8 and larger earthquakes we discuss a method for optimizing both procedures and testing their forecasting effectiveness using the likelihood function our forecasts are expressed as the rate density that is the probability per unit area and time anywhere on the earth our forecasts are for scientific testing only they are not to be construed as earthquake predictions or warnings and they carry no official endorsement for our long term forecast we assume that the rate density is proportional to a smoothed version of past seismicity using the harvard cmt catalogue this is in some ways antithetical to the seismic gap model which assumes that recent earthquakes deter future ones the estimated rate density depends linearly on the magnitude of past earthquakes and approximately on a negative power of the epicentral distance out to a few hundred kilometres we assume no explicit time dependence although the estimated rate density will vary slightly from day to day as earthquakes enter the catalogue the forecast applies to the ensemble of earthquakes during the test period it is not meant to predict any single earthquake and no single earthquake or lack of one is adequate to evaluate such a hypothesis we assume that 1 per cent of all earthquakes are surprises assumed uniformly likely to occur in those areas with no earthquakes since 1977 we have made specific forecasts for the calendar year 1999 for the northwest pacific and southwest pacific regions and we plan to expand the forecast to the whole earth we test the forecast against the earthquake catalogue using a likelihood test and present the results our short term forecast updated daily makes explicit use of statistical models describing earthquake clustering like the long term forecast the short term version is expressed as a rate density in location magnitude and time however the short term forecasts will change significantly from day to day in response to recent earthquakes the forecast applies to main shocks aftershocks aftershocks of aftershocks and main shocks preceded by foreshocks however there is no need to label each event and the method is completely automatic according to the model nearly 10 per cent of moderately sized earthquakes will be followed by larger ones within a few weeks

formation mechanism of huge coastal polynyas and its application to okhotsk northwestern polynya abstract this paper investigates the formation mechanism of broad coastal polynyas beyond 100 km in offshore width it is known that two regimes for wind driven polynya opening exist one is a convergent regime at the polynya edge in which inner frazil ice catches up with outer consolidated ice whereas the other is a divergent regime in which the consolidated ice drifts offshore faster than the frazil ice at the edge in this study the authors focus on the latter divergent polynya edge regime because in the divergent regime the polynya possibly evolves without bound they consider a thermal growth for inner frazil ice to find a finite solution of offshore width then the authors investigate responses of the polynya opening for various wind angles from the offshore direction from the viewpoint of the polynya edge regimes at first the authors estimate the deviation angle and wind factor for the frazil and consolidated ice based on each momentum balance because sea ice motion driven by wind varies

morphology and tectonics of the kane transform from sea beam bathymetry data high resolution sea beam data have been used to construct an accurate regional scale bathymetric map of the kane transform a large offset slowly slipping 30 mm yr central north atlantic transform the kane transform trends about 100 nearly orthogonal to the regional trend of the adjacent mid atlantic ridge mar rift valley the transform valley walls are composed of an alternating series of ridges and troughs which parallel the regional trend of the mar the ridges narrow and deepen toward the transform valley over distances of 10 20 km and the intervening troughs widen into distinct closed contour depressions that appear to be relict nodal basins the morphologic elements found on either side of the transform valley exhibit along strike continuity and represent undisrupted displacement markers the swath of terrain sandwiched between these markers is only several kilometers wide and is made up of elongate basins and ridges that integrate to create a distinctive transform parallel grain this interval the transform tectonized zone ttz marks the time averaged location of strike slip tectonism as parcels of crust move from each intersection along the transform interface the ttz is widest 6 km near the eastern ridge transform intersection rti and narrows to a strand less than 3 km wide along the central and western portions of the transform along the eastern portion of the transform valley a narrow 3 km median ridge several hundred meters high can be traced for more than 40 km along the valley floor and a similar but shorter feature is also present near the western rti at both rtis the neovolcanic zone from the adjacent rift valley can be traced as a series of constructional edifices across the entire intersection area to the opposing transform valley wall at the eastern rti the neovolcanic zone wraps around the eastern edge of the nodal basin while at the western rti it appears to bisect a paired nodal basin located in the intersection area a line drawn connecting the ends of each neovolcanic zone lies within the narrow ttz and has a strike of 098 using the bathymetric map of the kane transform as a record of the time integrated tectonic evolution of this large slowly slipping ridge transform ridge plate boundary we have constructed a simple model for the evolution of rtis our model emphasizes the interplay between temporal variations in crustal production rates i e variations in the volume of basaltic melt production along oceanic spreading centers and extensional tectonism this model can explain the existence of nodal basins at rtis and relict nodal basins along transforms and fracture zones as well as the occurrence of regularly spaced ridge and trough topography on the ridge flanks

time domain observations of a slow precursor to the 1994 romanche transform earthquake low frequency spectral anomalies have indicated that some large earthquakes are preceded by extended episodes of smooth moment release but the reality of these slow precursors has been debated because they have not been directly observed in the time domain high gain seismograms from the 14 march 1994 romanche transform event moment magnitude m w 7 0 show a precursory ramp with a moment of 7 1018 newton meters beginning about 100 seconds before the arrival of the high frequency p waves this precursor was the initial phase of a slow component of slip that released nearly half of the total moment of the earthquake such behavior may be typical for large earthquakes on the oceanic ridge transform system

stochastic synthesis of earthquake catalogs a model of earthquake occurrence is proposed that is based on results of statistical studies of earthquake catalogs we assume that each earthquake generates additional a probability that depends on time as t 1 this assumption together with one regarding the independence of branching events on adjacent branches of the event tree is sufficient to permit the generation of complete catalogs of earthquakes that have the same time magnitude statistical properties as real earthquake catalogs if is about 0 5 the process generates sequences that have statistical properties similar to those for shallow earthquakes many well known relations are reproduced including the magnitude frequency law omori s law of the rate of aftershock and foreshock occurrence the duration of a recorded seismic event versus its magnitude the self similarity or lack of scale of rate of earthquake occurrence in different magnitude ranges etc a value of closer to 0 8 or 0 9 seems to simulate the statistical properties of intermediate and deep shocks a formula for seismic risk prediction is proposed and the implications of the model for risk evaluation are outlined the possibilities of the determination of long term risk from real or synthetic catalogs that have the property of self similarity are dim

study of seismic site effects using h v spectral ratios at arenal volcano costa rica by using data obtained with a linear array at arenal volcano we show that the h v spectral ratio method can be profitably applied to detect site effects on volcanoes similar results are obtained when calculating spectral ratios with different types of seismo volcanic signals tremor ambient noise explosion quakes lp events we compare the h v ratios with theoretical s wave transfer functions calculated using velocity models obtained from seismic refraction studies there is a good agreement when the h v ratios display sharp peaks indicating a close relationship between the ratios and the transfer function of the shallow structure furthermore the main peaks of the spectral ratios are consistent with local amplification of seismic waves observed at the corresponding frequencies

bath s law derived from the gutenberg richter law and from aftershock properties 1 the empirical bath s law states that the average difference in magnitude between a mainshock and its largest aftershock is 1 2 regardless of the mainshock magnitude following vere jones 1969 and console et al 2003 we show that the origin of bath s law is to be found in the selection procedure used to define mainshocks and aftershocks rather than in any difference in the mechanisms controlling the magnitude of the mainshock and of the aftershocks we use the etas model of seismicity which provides a more realistic model of aftershocks based on i a universal gutenberg richter gr law for all earthquakes and on ii the increase of the number of aftershocks with the mainshock magnitude using numerical simulations of the etas model we show that this model is in good agreement with bath s law in a certain range of the model parameters

measurements of the strain field associated with episodic creep events on the san andreas fault at san juan bautista california over the past 6 years repeated strain steps recorded on a tensor strainmeter installed close to the san andreas fault trace at san juan bautista in california correlated closely with episodic creep events registered on a nearby creepmeter the strain events were remarkably similar in character were of about 1 hour duration and were followed within hours to days by creep events of 2 6 days duration the episodic slip of a source region from 200 m to 500 m in depth and at most a few kilometers in length is consistent with the observed strain and creep data we postulate that the additional stress transferred to this region by the loma prieta earthquake is giving rise to an increased rate of accumulation of shear strain around a locked patch beneath the creep source region thus accounting for the increased frequency of the creep strain events following the loma prieta earthquake

seamount statistics in the pacific ocean we apply the wide beam sampling technique of jordan et al 1983 to approximately 157 000 km of wide beam profiles to obtain seamount population statistics for eight regions in the eastern and southern pacific ocean population statistics derived from wide beam echograms are compared with seamount counts from sea beam swaths and with counts from bathymetric maps we find that the average number of seamounts with summit heights h h is well approximated by the exponential frequency size distribution h oe h the exponential model for seamount sizes characterized by the single scale parameter 1 is found to be superior to a power law self similar model which has no intrinsic scale in describing the average distribution of pacific seamounts and it appears to be valid over a size spectrum spanning 5 orders of magnitude in abundance large scale regional variations in seamount populations are documented we observe significant differences in seamount densities across the murray fracture zone in the north pacific and the eltanin fracture zone system in the south pacific the eltanin discontinuity is equally evident on both sides of the pacific antarctic ridge in the south pacific regions symmetrically disposed about the ridge axis have very similar seamount densities despite the large difference between pacific plate and antarctic plate absolute velocities evidently any differences in the shear flows at the base of the pacific and antarctic plates do not affect seamount emplacement systematic variations in o and are observed as a function of lithospheric age with the number of large seamounts increasing more rapidly than small seamounts these observations have been used to develop a simple model for seamount production under the assumptions that 1 an exponential size frequency distribution is maintained 2 production is steady state and 3 most small seamounts are formed on or near the ridge axis the limited data available from this study appear to be consistent with the model but they are insufficient to provide a rigorous test of the assumptions or determine accurately the model parameters however the data from the south pacific indicate that the off axis production of large seamounts probably accounts for the majority of seamounts with summit heights greater than 1000 m

detection of a locked zone at depth on the parkfield california segment of the san andreas fault the parkfield california segment of the san andreas fault is transitional in character between the creeping segment of the fault to the northwest and the locked carrizo plain segment to the southeast the rate of shallow fault slip decreases from 25 30 mm yr northwest of the epicenter of the 1966 parkfield earthquake to zero at the southeastern end of the 1966 rupture zone data from a network of trilateration lines spanning the san andreas fault near parkfield and extending to the pacific coast near san luis obispo shed light on the rate of fault slip at depth since the 1966 earthquake in this study average rates of line length change and shallow fault slip were inverted to determine the slip rate at depth on the parkfield fault segment the fault is taken to be a vertical surface with unknown distribution of strike slip displacement in an elastic half space a striking result of the inversions is that all solutions providing acceptable fits to the data exhibit a locked zone essentially coincident with the rupture surface of the 1966 parkfield earthquake the data require that the locked zone extend nearly as far north as the 1966 epicenter however the vertical extent of the locked zone is not well resolved over much of the parkfield segment the fault is slipping faster at the earth s surface than it is at seismogenic depths in order to fit the trilateration measurements it is necessary to include a component of contraction normal to the trend of the san andreas the inversion results suggest a spatially uniform normal strain of 0 06 strain yr the orientation of the contraction is compatible with geologic and seismic evidence of active folding and reverse faulting in the region the magnitude of the contraction is consistent with convergence rates inferred from global plate motion models

a slow earthquake sequence on the san andreas fault earthquakes typically release stored strain energy on timescales of the order of seconds limited by the velocity of sound in rock over the past 20 years observations1 13 and laboratory experiments14 have indicated that rupture can also occur more slowly with durations up to hours such events may be important in earthquake nucleation15 and in accounting for the excess of plate convergence over seismic slip in subduction zones the detection of events with larger timescales requires near field deformation measurements in december 1992 two borehole strainmeters close to the san andreas fault in california recorded a slow strain event of about a week in duration and we show here that the strain changes were produced by a slow earthquake sequence equivalent magnitude 4 8 with complexity similar to that of regular earthquakes the largest earthquakes associated with these slow events were small local magnitude 3 7 and contributed negligible strain release the importance of slow earthquakes in the seismogenic process remains an open question but these observations extend the observed timescale for slow events by two orders of magnitude

a slow thrust slip event following the two 1996 hyuganada earthquakes beneath the bungo channel southwest japan we report a slow thrust slip event that occurred beneath the bungo channel region southwestern japan on oct and dec 1996 two hyuganada earthquakes both mw 6 7 followed by afterslips occurred in addition a crustal movement characterized by an extremely slow rise was observed around the bungo channel about 200 km north from the epicenters and continued for about 300 days long assuming a slow slip on the plate boundary we estimate its duration and surface displacements from gps time series data by curve fitting and then determine the fault slip distribution we found that a slow slip without any earthquakes continued for nearly one year and released the seismic moment comparable to that of the hyuganada earthquakes occurrence of the slow thrust slip event suggests that this kind of event may be a characteristic mode of stress release at a transition region of interplate coupling

ocean bottom seismograph observations on the charlie gibbs fracture zone summary two networks of four ocean bottom seismographs were deployed successfully in 1982 september on spreading centre sites in the region of the charlie gibbs fracture zone activity was observed beneath both networks and hypocentres for over 100 events have been determined the observations confirm the existence of seismic activity along a suspected short spreading centre near longitude 31 75 w linking the north and south transform valleys of the fracture zone a relatively thick 7 9 km seismogenic zone is seen beneath the axis which is in agreement with earlier microearthquake observations on the mid atlantic ridge

mode of seismic moment release at transform faults abstract seismic moments of oceanic transform fault tf events being the largest ones at various tfs and covering a wide range of spreading rates are obtained by the moment tensor and the scalar moment inversion methods for the p wave first motion amplitudes on wwssn long period records the seismic moment of the largest event at each tf shows a negative correlation with the spreading rate and a positive correlation with the elapse time during which the ocean floor newly created at the ridge passes over ridge offset the seismic moment has a poor correlation with geometrical parameters such as tf length and cumulative moment expected along the tfs in the next step cumulative seismic moments are deduced for three tfs using rayleigh wave excitations relative to those of the largest events to infer seismic moments of small tf events ratios between the cumulative moments and the moments expected by simple plate kinematics amount to about 5 6 at the eltanin fracture zone spreading rate is 9 cm yr 29 at the tasman fracture zone 7 cm yr and 35 at the george v fracture zone 7 cm yr it is clear that the faster the spreading rate is the larger is the amount of tf movement released aseismically this leads to the conclusion that hot mantle materials are supplied by fast moving convection currents and that the mode of the seismic moment release at tfs is principally governed by the thermal state in the uppermost mantle beneath the spreading center

properties of aftershock sequences in southern california the temporal behavior of 39 aftershock sequences in southern california 1933 1988 was modeled by the modified omori relation minimum magnitudes for completeness of each sequence catalog were determined and the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters k p and c with the standard errors on each were determined by the ogata algorithm the b value of each sequence was also calculated many of the active faults in the region both strike slip and thrust were sampled the p values were graded in terms of the size of the standard error relative to the p value itself most of the sequences were modeled well by the omori relation many of the sequences had p values close to the mean of the whole data set 1 11 0 25 but values significantly different from the mean as low as 0 7 and as high as 1 8 exist no correlation of p with either the b value of the sequence or the mainshock magnitude was found the results suggest a direct correlation of p values is with surface heat flow with high values in the salton trough high heat flow and one low value in the san bernardino mountains and on the edge of the ventura basin both low heat flow the large fraction of the sequences with p values near the mean are at locations where the heat flow is near the regional mean 74 mw m2 if the hypothesis that aftershock decay rate is controlled by temperature at depth is valid the effects of other factors such as heterogeneity of the fault zone properties are superimposed on the background rate determined by temperature surface heat flow is taken as an indicator of crustal temperature at hypocentral depths but the effects on heat flow of convective heat transport and variations in near surface thermal conductivity invalidate any simple association of local variations in heat flow with details of the subsurface temperature distribution the interpretation is that higher temperatures in the aftershock source volume caused shortened stress relaxation times in the fault zone materials leading to a faster decay rate higher p value in 1967 mogi proposed such a relation on the basis of japanese data seismic velocity distributions published for southern california generally support the hypothesis with low velocities higher temperatures corresponding to high p values and vice versa

tectonic reconstruction of the clipperton and siqueiros fracture zones evidence and consequences of plate motion change for the last 3 myr bathymetry side looking sonar and magnetics data from the northern east pacific rise have been analyzed to determine the tectonic history of the clipperton fracture zone cfz and the siqueiros fracture zone sfz over the last 2 3 m y results of tectonic reconstructions indicate a series of counterclockwise changes in spreading direction at 2 5 ma 1 2 1 5 ma 1 2 and 0 5 ma 4 5 along the right stepping clipperton transform the most recent change in spreading direction has resulted in fracture zone normal compression which we propose has created a median ridge and transform parallel troughs along the active transform fault volcanic intersection highs located near the ridge transform intersections rti of the cfz are interpreted to be the result of fracture zone normal extension that has created pathways for magma emplacement into onto the older lithosphere across from the rti along the left stepping sfz we propose the changes in spreading direction have generated extension across the transform and have resulted in the formation of intratransform spreading centers and flexural transverse ridges tectonic reconstructions indicate a single euler pole is unable to describe the motion of the pacific cocos plate boundary between the cfz and sfz during periods of spreading direction change since 3 ma transtensional transforms will adjust to a new spreading direction almost immediately while transpressional transforms will experience compression for a period of time comparable to half the age offset of the compressional transform

teleseismic search for slow precursors to large earthquakes some large earthquakes display low frequency seismic anomalies that are best explained by episodes of slow smooth deformation immediately before their high frequency origin times analysis of the low frequency spectra of 107 shallow focus earthquakes revealed 20 events that had slow precursors 95 percent confidence level 19 were slow earthquakes associated with the ocean ridge transform system and 1 was a slow earthquake on an intracontinental transform fault in the east african rift system these anomalous earthquakes appear to be compound events each comprising one or more ordinary fast ruptures in the shallow seismogenic zone initiated by a precursory slow event in the adjacent or subjacent lithosphere

earthquake hazard after a mainshock in california after a strong earthquake the possibility of the occurrence of either significant aftershocks or an even stronger mainshock is a continuing hazard that threatens the resumption of critical services and reoccupation of essential but partially damaged structures a stochastic parametric model allows determination of probabilities for aftershocks and larger mainshocks during intervals following the mainshock the probabilities depend strongly on the model parameters which are estimated with bayesian statistics from both the ongoing aftershock sequence and from a suite of historic california aftershock sequences probabilities for damaging aftershocks and greater mainshocks are typically well constrained after the first day of the sequence with accuracy increasing with time

assessment of creep events as potential earthquake precursors application to the creeping section of the san andreas fault california we report the analysis of over 16 years of fault creep and seismicity data from part of the creeping section of the san andreas fault to examine and assess the temporal association between creep events and subsequent earthquakes the goal is to make a long term evaluation of creep events as a potential earthquake precursor we constructed a catalog of creep events from available digital creepmeter data and compared it to a declustered seismicity catalog for the area between san juan bautista and san benito california for 1980 to 1996 for magnitude thresholds of 3 8 and above and time windows of 5 to 10 days we find relatively high success rates 40 to 55 hits but also very high false alarm rates generally above 90 these success rates are statistically significant 0 0007 p 0 04 we also tested the actual creep event catalog against two different types of synthetic seismicity catalogs and found that creep events are followed closely in time by earthquakes from the real catalog far more frequently than the average for the synthetic catalogs generally by more than two standard deviations we find no identifiable spatial pattern between the creep events and earthquakes that are hit or missed we conclude that there is a significant temporal correlation between creep events and subsequent small to moderate earthquakes however that additional information such as from other potential precursory phenomena is required to reduce the false alarm rate to an acceptable level

continental fault structure and the shallow earthquake source plate boundaries in continental crust are generally less sharply defined than in the oceans with seismicity spread over broad areas interplate displacements appear to be largely accommodated by networks of major fault zones a simple 2 level model for these important structures accounts for the depth distribution of most continental earthquakes and for the observed range of faulting styles and associated rock deformation textures the model consists of a seismogenic frictional slip regime overlying quasi plastic mylonite belts wherein shearing is largely accommodated aseismically due mainly to the changing response of quartz to deformation with increasing temperature shear resistance increases with depth to a peak value in the vicinity of the frictiona1 quasi plastic transition and then decreases rapidly the depth to which microseismic activity extends appears inversely related to regional heat flow and can be satisfactorily modelled as the frictional quasi plastic transition for different geotherms using laboratory determined flow laws for quartz bearing rocks larger earthquake ruptures m 5 5 tend to nucleate near the base of the seismogenic regime in the region inferred to have the highest shear resistance and concentration of distortional strain energy consideration is also given to the depression of isotherms and seismic activity in regions of thrusting and to the question of the downward continuation of major fault zones through the lithosphere decoupling of the upper crust on flat lying shear zones may accompany higher level dip slip and perhaps in some circumstances strike slip faulting being favoured by above average continental heat flow and a high quartz content in the middle or deep crust the average level of deviatoric stress within the seismogenic regime remains an outstanding problem

long term fault creep observations in central california the u s geological survey usgs has been monitoring aseismic fault slip in central california for more than 10 years as part of an earthquake prediction experiment since 1968 the usgs creep network has grown from one creep meter at the cienega winery south of hollister to a 44 station network that stretches from hayward east of san francisco bay to palmdale in southern california in general the long term slip pattern is most variable on sections of the faults where several magnitude 4 and larger earthquakes occurred during the recording period e g calaveras fault near hollister and san andreas fault between san juan bautista and bear valley these fault sections are the most difficult to characterize with a single long term slip rate in contrast sections of the faults that are seismically relatively quiet e g san andreas fault between bear valley and parkfield produce the steadiest creep records and are easiest to fit with a single long term slip rate appendix is available with entire article on microfiche order from the american geophysical union 2000 florida avenue n w washington d c 20009 document j82 004 1 00 payment must accompany order

evidence of bias in estimations of earthquake size magnitudes of earthquakes determined using traditional methods show systematic deviations dependent on tectonic setting from accurate estimates of earthquake size magnitudes are overestimated for most of the continental earthquakes underestimated for mid oceanic ridges and differences of varying sign are obtained for subduction zones this is important in evaluating the seismic risk or consideration of effects such as the seismic versus aseismic strain release as seismic moments determined from magnitudes can be wrong by as much as a factor of four

slow earthquakes along oceanic fracture zones evidence for asthenospheric flow away from hotspots abstract the regime of strain release along transform faults of the mid oceanic ridge system is studied it is shown that earthquakes along certain fracture zones exhibit systematic discrepancies between values of their magnitudes measured at short and long periods implying a regime of slower strain release also observed in a pattern of complex body waveshapes these slow fracture zones do not correlate with simple geographic or kinematic properties but usually occur in the neighborhood of hotspot volcanism frequently also characterized by gravity and bathymetry anomalies we propose that regimes of slow strain release may be due to a partial lubrication of the fault along these fracture zones which may itself be due to asthenospheric flow from the nearby hotspots along the pattern of pipelines described by vogt and johnson and by morgan

a study on the active crustal deformation of the north and east anatolian fault zones abstract active crustal deformation in the north anatolian fault zone nafz and the east anatolian fault zone eafz based on seismicity data is examined the results show that the deformation in the nafz is taken up by extension on an azimuth of 59 at a rate of 27 mm yr and as compression on an azimuth of 149 and a rate of 20 mm yr the average dextral lateral motion on the naf is about 23 mm yr this motion in the western part of the naf is 16 mm yr while it increases in the eastern part of the fault to 27 mm yr in the eafz the deformation is taken up as nearly n s compression n7 e at a rate of 5 mm yr and as nearly e w extension n97 at a rate of about 9 mm yr the average sinistral lateral motion has a rate of about 6 mm yr the expected slip rates from plate motions along the north anatolian fault are of the order of 38 mm yr the predicted slip rates for east anatolian fault are 19 mm yr or 29 mm yr the seismicity of the last 140 years can account for the expected deformation along the nafz for the eafz however it is possible that part of the total deformation has been expressed aseismically

predominance of unilateral rupture for a global catalog of large earthquakes the manner in which an earthquake rupture propagates across a fault reflects both the initial properties of the fault and the dynamical stresses produced by the rupture we quantify the propagation of an earthquake rupture using the second moments of the earthquake space time distribution in particular the second moments provide a simple way to differentiate between approximately bilateral and predominantly unilateral ruptures we determined the second moments for a catalog of m w 7 earthquakes that have occurred since 1994 the results show that approximately 80 of large shallow ruptures are predominantly unilateral our result agrees well with strong motion inversions from previous studies on moderate and large earthquakes the predominance of unilateral propagation in large earthquakes is explained by a simple characteristic earthquake model in which large events rupture an entire structurally defined fault segment and nucleation points are uniformly distributed along the fault the predominance of unilateral rupture may also be enhanced by the dynamic stress field produced by contrasts in the elastic properties between the two sides of plate boundary faults manuscript received 16 november 2001

geochemical evolution of an ordovician island arc south mayo ireland early ordovician volcanic rocks exposed in the south mayo region of western ireland document the history of a volcanic arc complex produced following the initiation of south dipping subduction within the iapetus ocean in the late cambrian or early ordovician lavas of the lough nafooey group tremadoc arenig show an eruption history marked by an initial period of tholeiitic basaltic volcanism followed by a shift to increasing silica compositions of calc alkaline affinity subsequent volcanism of the tourmakeady group arenig shows a mixture of rhyolitic and andesitic compositions which are in turn succeeded by tuffs of the rosroe and mweelrea formations of the murrisk group llanvirn these are also rhyolitic and andesitic but are generally more siliceous the overall increase in silica contents may reflect increasing fractional crystallization due to crustal thickening trace element studies of the basaltic members of the lough nafooey group show a strong subduction zone influence while absolute levels of immobile trace and rare earth elements decrease upsection relative depletion of the most incompatible elements decreases over the same time period these trends suggest decreasing degrees of partial melting of a progressively more depleted source mantle upsection the basaltic bohaun volcanic formation tremadoc arenig shows greater depletion in its incompatible trace elements than the lough nafooey group so indicating a more depleted mantle source comparison with modern arc systems suggests that the bohaun volcanic formation was probably generated shortly after the initiation of subduction and was erupted in a more trenchward position than the lough nafooey group i e in the forearc this confirms a south dipping polarity to the subduction zone and suggests an age of initiation during the late cambrian or earliest ordovician

slip styles in a spring slider model with a laboratory derived constitutive law for serpentinite a spring slider model with a laboratory derived constitutive law for serpentinite generates seismic slip aseismic slip or a combination of both such behavior is observed on oceanic ridge transform systems and portions of the san andreas fault and may be due to the presence of serpentinite the constitutive law combines two sets of equations a rate dependent flow equation which dominates at low velocities and a rate and state dependent set of equations which dominate at high velocities the combined model produces transient behavior with maximum slip velocities well in excess of the loading velocity metastable slip prior to the onset of high speed slip is produced in many simulations and may be analogous to the slow precursors observed for some oceanic ridge transform earthquakes this precursory slip results from the double valued nature of the steady state curve of the two mechanism model in which the state variable equations are rate weakening

seismic imaging of the 1999 izmit turkey rupture inferred from the near fault recordings we use near fault accelerograms to infer the space time history of rupture on the fault during the izmit earthquake the records show that the ground displacement and velocity near the fault were surprisingly simple rupture propagated toward the west at a velocity of about 3 km s and toward the east at a remarkably high average velocity of 4 7 km s over a distance of about 45 km before decelerating to about 3 1 km s on the eastern segment slip on the fault is particularly large down to a depth of 20 km on the central portion of the fault where it reaches about 7 m slip is large also below 10 km on the eastern fault segment and this may have contributed to the loading of shear stress on the duzce fault on the western fault segment large slip seems confined to shallow depths

periodic slow earthquakes from the cascadia subduction zone continuous geodetic measurements from convergent margins have shown that deep transient creep events can release large amounts of strain energy without detectable seismic shaking and they are thus known as slow or silent earthquakes because subduction zones generate the largest earthquakes

seismic properties of the eltanin transform system south pacific abstract we present a compilation of the seismic properties of the eltanin transform fault tf system compelled by the recent discovery of the hollister ridge and the possibility of a change of plate kinematics pattern in the region the hollister ridge is a major volcanic system located on the western flank of the pacific antarctic ridge par immediately south of the eltanin fracture zones fzs we find or confirm two anomalous characteristics the occurrence of seven normal faulting events on the transform segments expressing extension across the plate boundary in the azimuth n26 w and more than 90 deficiency in the seismic moment released during strike slip events on the transforms as compared to the rate expected from kinematic models other seismic properties are typical of the seismicity of a fast spreading mid ocean ridge mor system in particular we could not document a single teleseismically recorded event on the hollister ridge earthquakes are confined to narrow tfs with no activity present on the ridge segments the transform events have regular frequency moment statistics and we could not document any significantly slow sources these seismic properties generally support conventional plate tectonics models such as nuvel 1 and cannot be reconciled with a proposed reorientation of the pacific plate 4 ma ago

aftershock sequences in the mid ocean ridge environment an analysis using hydroacoustic data abstract hydroacoustic data from autonomous arrays and the u s navy s sound surveillance system sosus provide an opportunity to examine the temporal and spatial properties of seismicity along portions of the slow spreading mid atlantic ridge mar intermediate spreading juan de fuca ridge jdfr and fast spreading east pacific rise epr aftershock and foreshock events are selected from the hydroacoustic earthquake catalog using single link cluster slc analysis with a combined space time metric in the regions examined hydroacoustic data improve the completeness level of the earthquake catalog by 1 5 2 0 orders of magnitude allowing the decay constant p of the modified omori law mol to be determined for individual sequences a non parametric goodness of fit test indicates six of the seven sequences examined are described well by a mol model the p values obtained for individual ridge and transform sequences using hydroacoustic data are larger than that previously estimated from the analysis of a stacked sequence generated from teleseismic data for three sequences along the siqueiros discovery and western blanco transforms p values are estimated to be 0 94 1 29 the spatial distribution of aftershocks suggests that the mainshock rupture is constrained by intra transform spreading centers at these locations an aftershock sequence following a 7 1 m s thrust event near the northern edge of the easter microplate exhibits p 1 02 0 11 within the sequence aftershocks are located to the north of a large topographic ridge which may represent the surface expression of the shallow dipping fault that ruptured during the mainshock two aftershock sequences near 24 25 n and 16 35 n on the mar exhibit higher p values 1 74 0 23 and 2 37 1 65 although the latter estimate is not well constrained because of the small number of aftershocks larger p values along the ridge crest might reflect a hotter thermal regime in this setting additional monitoring however will be needed to determine if p value differences between the ridge and transform sequences are robust a 1999 sequence on the endeavour segment of the jdfr which has been correlated with changes in the hydrothermal system is described poorly by the mol model the failure of the mol model the anomalously large number of earthquakes within the sequence and absence of a clearly dominant mainshock are inconsistent with aftershock activity and the simple tectonic origin that has been proposed previously for this sequence

a reassessment of the rupture characteristics of oceanic transform earthquakes 1 we investigate the long period source spectra of oceanic transform earthquakes and find that previously proposed slow rupture components can be explained as artifacts generated by the modeling procedure we use low frequency 20 mhz rayleigh and love waves to calculate the amplitude spectra of five earthquakes on the romanche and chain transform faults in the equatorial mid atlantic ocean we find that errors and approximations in the centroid depth focal mechanism and earth structure at the source have significant effects on the shape of the source spectra if global catalog values and an average crustal model are assumed the spectra exhibit apparent anomalous energy at long periods which has previously been interpreted as a result of slow rupture we recalculate the source spectra using precise independently determined depths and moment tensors and a more realistic oceanic crustal structure in the source region the resulting source spectra are flat at long periods with no indication of anomalous long period energy our results imply that oceanic transform earthquakes do not commonly have detectable slow rupture components

earthquake scaling relations for mid ocean ridge transform faults 1 a mid ocean ridge transform fault rtf of length l slip rate v and moment release rate can be characterized by a seismic coupling coefficient ae at where ae v is an effective seismic area and at l3 2v 1 2 is the area above an isotherm tref a global set of 65 rtfs with a combined length of 16 410 km is well described by a linear scaling relation 1 ae at which yields 0 15 0 05 for tref 600 c therefore about 85 of the slip above the 600 c isotherm must be accommodated by subseismic mechanisms and this slip partitioning does not depend systematically on either v or l rtf seismicity can be fit by a truncated gutenberg richter distribution with a slope 2 3 in which the cumulative number of events n0 and the upper cutoff moment mc dcac depend on at data for the largest events are consistent with a self similar slip scaling dc ac1 2 and a square root areal scaling 2 ac at1 2 if relations 1 and 2 apply then moment balance requires that the dimensionless seismic productivity 0 0 atv should scale as 0 at 1 4 which we confirm using small events hence the frequencies of both small and large earthquakes adjust with at to maintain constant coupling rtf scaling relations appear to violate the single mode hypothesis which states that a fault patch is either fully seismic or fully aseismic and thus implies ac ae the heterogeneities in the stress distribution and fault structure responsible for relation 2 may arise from a thermally regulated dynamic balance between the growth and coalescence of fault segments within a rapidly evolving fault zone

more on mmax m max the maximum magnitude earthquake that a fault is likely to suffer plays an important role in earthquake hazard estimation although observational evidence summarized in plots of characteristic earthquake magnitude m char versus fault length indicate that smaller faults produce lower magnitude events an argument has been made that any fault regardless of its length should have m max near magnitude 8 the rationale for this argument charges that the contrary observational evidence stems from historical catalogs of limited extent and that it largely excludes nonconventional earthquakes in which several short and apparently disconnected fault segments fail simultaneously this article addresses m max using computer models of rupture on faults of various strengths and configurations computer models have advantages in that a m max earthquakes always can be generated by forcing complete stress drop on fully stressed faults thus avoiding the limitations of short historical catalogs and b the circumstances necessary for the failure of several segments to contribute to a large m max can be investigated quantitatively i find that for a strikeslip california environment it is physically unlikely for an m 8 event to break less than 300 to 400 km of fault were this m 8 rupture to occur on as few as five independent segments shear strength of the participating faults would have to be raised to implausible levels if the fault segments are not independent and their coseismic stress fields interact then amplifications in slip are possible without drastic increase in strength the range of fault geometries where strong interactions and amplifications of stress occur however is very restricted and discontinuous faults separated by even 5 of their length act more or less independently m max earthquakes breading realistic looking distributions of discontinuous faults rarely are more than 0 1 magnitude unit bigger than would be predicted from a moment summation based on the characteristic magnitude m char of each of the individual faults a prudent course in hazard analysis differentiates m max from m char allowing m max to be 0 2 to 0 3 units larger than m char but not automatically equal to 8

on moment length scaling of large strike slip earthquakes and the strength of faults 1 several large strike slip earthquakes have occurred in various tectonic settings in the past 5 years adding well documented data to the global collection of moment and length estimates for such earthquakes based on this augmented dataset we reexamine the controversial issue of scaling of seismic moment with length of rupture we find that the global dataset of large strike slip earthquakes follows a bi modal distribution most oceanic and or intraplate strike slip earthquakes have stress drops that are 5 times larger than interplate continental ones when distinguishing these two classes the scaling is compatible with that predicted by simple dislocation theory

detection of and response to a probable volcanogenic t wave event swarm on the western blanco transform fault zone the east blanco depression ebd a pull apart basin within the western blanco transform fault zone btfz was the site of an intense earthquake t wave swarm that began at 1317z on january 9 1994 although technically generated earthquakes occur frequently along the btfz this swarm was unusual in that it was preceded and accompanied by periodic low frequency long duration acoustic signals that originated from near the swarm epicenters these tremor like signals were very similar in character to acoustic energy produced by a shallow submarine eruption near socorro island a seamount several hundred km west of baja california the 69 earthquakes and 400 tremor like events at the ebd occurred sporadically with two periods of peak activity occurring between january 5 16 and 27 31 the swarm like character of the earthquakes and the similarity of the tremor activity to the socorro eruption indicated that the ebd was undergoing an intrusion or eruption episode on january 27 six ctd rosette casts were conducted at the site water samples from two of the stations yielded anomalous he concentrations with maxima at 2800 m depth over the main basin in june 1994 two camera tows within the basin yielded evidence of pillow lava volcanism and hydrothermal deposits but no conclusive evidence of a recent seafloor eruption in september 1994 deployments of the u s navy s advanced tethered vehicle resulted in the discovery of an active hydrothermal mound on the flanks of a pillow lava volcano the hydrothermal mound consists of fe rich hydrothermal precipitate and bacterial mats temperatures to 60 c were measured 30 cm below the surface this is the first discovery of active hydrothermal vents along an oceanic fracture zone although no conclusive evidence of volcanic activity associated with the t wave event swarm was found during these response efforts the ebd has been the site of recent seafloor eruptions

age dependence of oceanic intraplate seismicity and implications for lithospheric evolution we have determined depths for 16 oceanic intraplate earthquakes using body wave modeling a data set composed of these and 11 other well constrained depths shows that the maximum depth of seismicity deepens with increasing lithospheric age and appears to be bounded by a 700 800 c isotherm the maximum depth to which intraplate earthquakes occur is approximately equal to the flexural elastic thickness but much less than the seismic thickness from surface wave dispersion the maximum faulting depth is consistent with the predictions of rapid weakening at high temperatures for dry olivine rheologies determined by experimental rock mechanics oceanic intraplate earthquakes can occur at greater depths and temperatures than has previously been reported for continental crustal events presumably because oceanic lithosphere is stronger at high temperatures both the number of earthquakes and the cumulative seismic moment decrease with lithospheric age the cause of this trend is unclear possibilities include nonrandom location of preexisting weak zones with respect to the age provinces fault strengthening with age or a decrease in the stress level a decrease in intraplate stress with age is opposite that expected from ridge push stresses which increase with age but may result either from thermoelastic stresses which are greatest in young lithosphere or near ridge stress concentrations due to local heterogeneities in the spreading process

fault behavior and characteristic earthquakes examples from the wasatch and san andreas fault zones paleoseismological data for the wasatch and san andreas fault zones have led to the formulation of the characteristic earthquake model which postulates that individual faults and fault segments tend to generate essentially same size or characteristic earthquakes having a relatively narrow range of magnitudes near the maximum analysis of scarp derived colluvium in trench exposures across the wasatch fault provides estimates of the timing and displacement associated with individual surface faulting earthquakes at all of the sites studied the displacement per event has been consistently large measured values range from 1 6 to 2 6 m and the average is about 2 m on the basis of variability in the timing of individual events as well as changes in scarp morphology and fault geometry six major segments are recognized along the wasatch fault on the basis of the most likely number of surface faulting events 18 that have occurred on segments of the wasatch fault zone during the past 8000 years an average recurrence interval of 400 666 years with a preferred average of 444 years is calculated for the entire zone geologic data on the distribution of slip associated with prehistoric earthquakes and slip rates along the south central segment of the san andreas fault suggest that the m 8 1857 earthquake is a characteristic earthquake for this segment comparisons of earthquake recurrence relationships on both the wasatch and san andreas faults based on historical seismicity data and geologic data show that a linear constant b value extrapolation of the cumulative recurrence curve from the smaller magnitudes leads to gross underestimates of the frequency of occurrence of the large or characteristic earthquakes only by assuming a low b value in the moderate magnitude range can the seismicity data on small earthquakes be reconciled with geologic data on large earthquakes the characteristic earthquake appears to be a fundamental aspect of the behavior of the wasatch and san andreas faults and may apply to many other faults as well

variation with spreading rate of oceanic crustal thickness and geochemistry abstract away from the influence of fracture zones hotspots and marginal basins oceanic crust exhibits remarkably uniform crustal thickness rare earth element concentrations and bulk composition at all but the most slowly spreading ridges at full spreading rates below 15 mm a however all these observed parameters show marked and abrupt changes the seismically determined crustal thicknesses decrease sharply from their average of 7 1 km as do melt thicknesses inferred from rare earth element inversions of basalts bulk element compositions of basalts show an increase in the percentage of na2o and decreases in the feo content and cao al2o3 ratio as the full spreading rate drops below 15 mm a we present a model of the melting beneath oceanic spreading centres which reproduces the observed variations with spreading rate of crustal thickness and the main geochemical changes observed in basalts changes in the volume and composition of melt generated at very slow spreading rates are caused by conductive heat loss from the mantle welling up beneath rifts we model the observed behaviour with normal mantle potential temperatures of 1300 20 c greater crustal thicknesses are generated at the north atlantic spreading centre adjacent to the iceland mantle plume suggesting mantle temperatures about 80 c hotter than normal in this area

further evidence for the compound nature of slow earthquakes the prince edward island earthquake of april 28 1997 seismograms of the april 28 1997 prince edward island transform fault earthquake mw 6 8 show clear evidence for the superposition of two types of rupture a normal earthquake and a slow component which primarily radiated energy at low frequencies we combined low frequency spectral data with p waveform data to invert for a source time function that satisfied data from 0 001 to 2 5 hz the results show that the earthquake started with a slow event which began 15 s before the fast mainshock and was part of a slow earthquake which lasted over 30 s the smoothness of the initial event is inferred from the low amplitude of high frequency energy at regional stations during the initial portion of the p wave arrival directivity analysis shows that the two components of the rupture occurred on different faults the slow event occurred on the main transform and the fast event occurred on a parallel fault 40 km to the east a similar compound sequence involving both slow and fast components and rupture on multiple faults occurred on the romanche transform in 1994 these and other results for slow earthquakes suggest that many large events on oceanic transform faults are compound events

seismicity of oceanic and continental rifts a geodynamic approach abstract two major kinds of divergent structures oceanic and intracontinental rifts were compared in principal seismic and tectonic characteristics first the role of main components of the mid oceanic ridges mor was estimated for the whole earth we considered two levels of the mor segmentation the first order structures are the segments of mor between triple junctions and the second order structures are a transform faults and rift parts of mor the seismic catalogues neic and cmt were used to assess the seismic moment release the seismic moment release was calculated another way using the global plate tectonic model nuvel 1 and brune s formulae comparison of these two values shows that the seismic coupling coefficient varies from 1 to 10 for most of mor and is always higher for transform faults most of the deformation therefore is aseismic slip most seismicity of mor is confined to transform faults the energy contribution of transform faults is one to two orders magnitude higher than that of the rift and increases with the spreading rate there is a strong correlation between the seismic moment release of strike slip faults and their total lengths the correlation shows that the seismic moment release depends on the total transform area and confirms the simple thermal model of transform seismicity that was given by burr and solomon the seismic moment release and the spreading rate have opposite patterns for the rifts there is an inverse correlation between the seismic moment of normal faults and spreading velocity while it seems for transforms that these parameters are independent finally these results show that the seismicity of transforms and rifts depends first of all on the thermal structure of oceanic lithosphere in the case of continental rifts one can distinguish in the degree of seismic activity depending on the stage of rifting hence analysis of the continental seismicity requires the consideration of factors of a geological evolution that play practically no role in the case of oceanic lithosphere the comparison of geological and seismic data for the east african region has allowed us to outline the regular changes of the seismic regime during development of the rift zone from the stage of incipient rift to mature oceanic rift in the evolutionary series intracontinental incipient rift intracontinental mature rift intercontinental rift oceanic slow spreading rift oceanic fast spreading rift there is a gradual decrease of the role of rifts sensu stricto as tension structures and increase of the role of strike slip faults epicenters concentrate along major faults as well the level of seismic energy becomes lower although the rate of deformation increases

earthquakes in the orozco transform zone seismicity source mechanisms and tectonics as part of the rivera ocean seismic experiment a network of ocean bottom seismometers and hydrophones was deployed in order to determine the seismic characteristics of the orozco transform fault in the central eastern pacific we present hypocentral locations and source mechanisms for 70 earthquakes recorded by this network all epicenters are within the transform region of the orozco fracture zone and clearly delineate the active plate boundary about half of the epicenters define a narrow line of activity parallel to the spreading direction and situated along a deep topographic trough that forms the northern boundary of the transform zone region 1 most focal depths for these events are very shallow within 4 km of the seafloor several well determined focal depths however are as great as 7 km no shallowing of seismic activity is observed as the rise transform intersection is approached to the contrary the deepest events are within 10 km of the intersection first motion polarities for most of the earthquakes in region 1 are compatible with right lateral strike slip faulting along a nearly vertical plane striking parallel to the spreading direction another zone of activity is observed in the central part of the transform region 2 the apparent horizontal and vertical distribution of activity in this region is more scattered than in the first and the first motion radiation patterns of these events do not appear to be compatible with any known fault mechanism pronounced lateral variations in crustal velocity structure are indicated for the transform region from refraction data and measurements of wave propagation directions the effect of this lateral heterogeneity on hypocenters and fault plane solutions is evaluated by tracing rays through a three dimensional velocity grid while findings for events in region 1 are not significantly affected in region 2 epicentral mislocations of up to 10 km and azimuthal deflections of up to 45 may result from assuming a laterally homogeneous velocity structure when corrected for the effects of lateral heterogeneity the epicenters and fault plane solutions for earthquakes in region 2 are compatible with predominantly normal faulting along a topographic trough trending nw se the focal depths however are poorly constrained these results suggest an en echelon spreading center or leaky transform regime in the central transform region

coupled seismic slip on adjacent oceanic transform faults 1 in a four and a half hour period more than 60 events in an earthquake swarm on the western boundary of the easter microplate were detected by an array of ocean bottom seismometers the larger events of the swarm were strike slip earthquakes located on two transform faults separated by about 25 km slip on the faults was closely coupled with activity alternating back and forth randomly between the two transforms coupled seismic activity is usually attributed to triggering by static stress changes or dynamic stresses in propagating shear waves generated by another earthquake but these earthquakes are too small for either mechanism to be plausible we suggest that the swarm may have been the seismic manifestation of a larger primarily aseismic slip event or slow earthquake involving both transforms perhaps triggered by dike injection on the easter pacific spreading center

importance of direct and indirect triggered seismicity in the etas model of seismicity 1 using the simple etas branching model of seismicity which assumes that each earthquake can trigger other earthquakes we quantify the role played by the cascade of triggered seismicity in controlling the rate of aftershock decay as well as the overall level of seismicity in the presence of a constant external seismicity source we show that in this model the fraction of earthquakes in the population that are aftershocks is equal to the fraction of aftershocks that are indirectly triggered and is given by the average number of triggered events per earthquake previous observations that a significant fraction of earthquakes are triggered earthquakes therefore imply that most aftershocks are indirectly triggered by the mainshock

fractal analysis applied to characteristic segments of the san andreas fault fractal theory is applied in a quantitative analysis of the san andreas fault saf geometry the method which directly measures the increase in total fault length with a decrease in ruler size gives the fractal dimension d and scaling properties for the chosen length band 0 5 1000 km a physical interpretation of d is that it measures the irregularity of the fault trace in the selected band the fault is subdivided into six segments of distinctive seismic behavior a main fault trace which shows either maximum coseismic slip or creeping was selected for analysis with three alternative branches examined for the saf system south of san bernardino branches of the fault trace are not considered in this work fractal dimensions calculated for the different segments range from 1 0008 to 1 0191 and are different from 1 0 to the 95 confidence interval these small changes reflect the overall smoothness of the main fault trace significant variations in d among segments indicate heterogeneities in the fault smoothness along strike d also changes significantly from the short length band to the long length band where the demarcation point ranges from 1 to 2 km the short length band has larger d values a slight correlation is obtained between the fractal dimension of the main trace and the extent of subparallel faulting this indicates some correspondence between the main fault trace irregularity and the complexity of subsidiary fault traces in plan view

a silent slip event on the deeper cascadia subduction interface continuous global positioning system sites in southwestern british columbia canada and northwestern washington state usa have been moving landward as a result of the locked state of the cascadia subduction fault offshore in the summer of 1999 a cluster of seven sites briefly reversed their direction of motion no seismicity was associated with this event the sudden displacements are best explained by 2 centimeters of aseismic slip over a 50 kilometer by 300 kilometer area on the subduction interface downdip from the seismogenic zone a rupture equivalent to an earthquake of moment magnitude 6 7 this provides evidence that slip of the hotter plastic part of the subduction interface and hence stress loading of the megathrust earthquake zone can occur in discrete pulses