modeling mountain building and the seismic cycle in the himalaya of nepal a host of information is now available regarding the geological and thermal structure as well as deformation rate across the himalaya of central nepal these data are reconciled in a two dimensional mechanical model that incorporates the rheological layering of the crust which depends on the local temperature and surface processes over geological timescale 5 ma the 20 mm yr estimated shortening rate across the range is accommodated by localized thrust faulting along the main himalayan thrust fault mht the mht reaches the surface along the foothills where it is called the main frontal thrust fault mft the mht flattens beneath the lesser himalaya and forms a midcrustal ramp at the front of the higher himalaya consistent with the river incision and the anticlinal structure of the lesser himalaya farther northward the mht roots into a subhorizontal shear zone that coincides with a midcrustal seismic reflector aseismic slip along this shear zone is accommodated in the interseismic period by elastic straining of the upper crust increasing the coulomb stress beneath the front of the higher himalaya where most of the microseismic activity clusters negligible deformation of the hanging wall requires a low apparent friction coefficient less than 0 3 on the flat portion of the mht on the ramp might be as high as 0 6 sensitivity tests show that a rather compliant quartz rich rheology and a high radioactive heat production in the upper crust of 2 5 w m 3 is required erosion affects the thermal structure and interplays with crustal deformation a dynamic equilibrium is obtained in which erosion balances tectonic uplift maintaining steady state thermal structure topography and deformation field using a linear diffusion model of erosion we constrain the value of the mass diffusivity coefficient to 0 5 1 6 l0 4 m 2 yr this study demonstrates that the data are internally consistent and compatible with current understanding of the mechanics of crustal deformation and highlight the role of viscous flow in the lower crust and of surface erosion in orogeny processes on the long term as well as during interseismic period

shear and normal load perturbations on a two dimensional continuous fault 2 dynamic triggering 1 the influence of normal and shear stress static perturbations on a strike slip fault is addressed on the basis of a two dimensional continuous and quasi dynamic model friction along the fault plane is described using a rate and state friction law with depth variable properties normal and shear stress perturbations result in similar effects in terms of earthquake triggering iftm s is constant t ands being the amplitude of the shear and normal stress fluctuations respectively and m being a constant which can be interpreted as the static friction coefficient on the fault in a coulomb failure model therefore the coulomb stress changecff tm s is a useful tool to account simultaneously for normal and shear stress variations in our model we also show that when estimating the clock advance or clock delay of an earthquake the simple coulomb failure model is at first order in good agreement with our results during the first 90 of the earthquake cycle however it differs significantly during the last 10 due to the sharp velocity increase predicted by the rate and state friction law before rupture this suggests that as long as static variations of stress are concerned realistic fault models using rich laboratory based friction laws like rate and state friction laws may lead topredictions fairly close to the ones made using one of the simplest failure model i e the coulomb failure model this may explain why coulomb stress change computations although often based on drastic approximations have been able in many occasions to explain earthquake triggering sequences index terms 7209 seismology earthquake dynamics and mechanics 7215 seismology earthquake parameters 7260 seismology theory and modeling keywords earthquake triggering static triggering coulomb stress change rate and state friction laws clock advance delay

time dependent postseismic slip following the 1978 m w 7 3 tabas e golshan iran earthquake revealed by over 20 years of esa insar observations abstract we use over 20 yrs 1996 2017 of the european space agency s esa radar interferometry insar observations to investigate the postseismic deformation of the tabas fold segment following the 1978 m w 7 3 tabas e golshan earthquake in eastern iran we generated maps of satellite line of sight los velocity using two ers descending tracks 1996 1999 one envisat descending track 2003 2010 one sentinel 1a descending track 2014 2017 and one sentinel 1a ascending track 2014 2017 the los velocity shows afterslip continuing for at least 40 yrs after the earthquake elastic dislocation modelling based on the insar measurements reveals a decrease in postseismic velocities from 5 0 0 8 mm yr in 1996 1999 to 3 9 0 6 mm yr in 2003 2005 3 0 0 4 mm yr in 2006 2010 and a present rate of 2 3 0 6 mm yr in 2014 2017 the rates decay with time t as 1 t consistent with the predictions of a simple block slider model we then combine the insar rates and our previous estimates of the total earthquake slip derived from optical image matching and dem differencing to explore the frictional behaviour of the tabas fold we obtained a rate and state parameter a b 0 003 indicating rate strengthening frictional behaviour of the tabas fault we also inferred a minimum coseismic slip of 4 7 m which might have driven bedding plane shear at shallow depth resulting in distributed fold growth and secondary faulting observed in the field the results imply that both coseismic slip and afterslip have occurred in the same location one possible mechanism to explain such a phenomenon is that the frictional parameter a b is small enough to allow dynamic ruptures to propagate into rate strengthening regions

spatial and temporal distribution of slip for the 1999 chi chi taiwan earthquake we investigated the rupture process of the 1999 chi chi taiwan earth quake using high quality near source strong motion records broadband teleseismic displacement waveforms and well distributed global positioning system gps data the near source strong motion displacement waveforms recorded significant static offsets of up to 8 m the teleseismic displacement records show a significant pulse with duration of about 18 to 20 sec taking into account the surface displacements observed along the chelungpu fault we considered two fault geometries a single planar fault and a two segment fault with a northeast striking section near the north ern end using the finite fault model with variable slip vectors we derived two models of the temporal and spatial slip distribution of the earthquake the gps data provided good surface displacement constraints for the slip distribution determina tion the spatial slip distribution is generally consistent with field observations the results for the simple fault model show a large asperity located in the region about 25 to 55 km north of the hypocenter with maximum slip of about 15 m when we use the two segment model the asperity further extends to the region where the fault bends toward the northeast with a maximum slip of up to 20 m a large amount of right lateral slip beneath station tcu068 is necessary to explain its observed large west movement it implies a local converging slip at the corner where the fault bends to the northeast the slip amplitude near the hypocenter is about 3 to 6 m the seismic moments determined from the various data sets are within the range of 2 to 4 10 27 dyne cm most of the slip concentrated at shallow depths less than 10 km the total rupture duration is about 28 sec and the rupture velocity is 75 to 80 of the shear wave velocity the slip vector shows a clockwise rotation during the fault rupture the static stress drop of the large asperity region is comparable with the dynamic stress drop as observed directly from the slip velocity at the station near the large slip region

a rheologic model for wet crust applied to strike slip faults the strength and stability of crustal faults are not adequately addressed by the widely used two mechanism rheologic models of the crust based on byerlee s law and power law creep the models neglect the fluid assisted mechanisms of deformation that are important to strength of the crust and do not describe the variation in rate dependence of friction that governs the stability of fault slip several distinct mechanisms of frictional slip are defined on the basis of variations in frictional behavior and microfabric of simulated fault gouge in laboratory experiments state variable constitutive relations are used in a multiple mechanism formulation to describe the rate and temperature dependence of three friction mechanisms in wet quartz gouge at elevated temperatures this multimechanism description of friction is substituted for byerlee s law in the two mechanism models to generate a multimechanism rheologic model for the crust the multimechanism model is used to predict the rate and temperature dependence of crustal strength and the slip rate and depth temperature conditions over which each mechanism dominates application of the model to strike slip faults in the crust illustrates that the thickness of the actively shearing zone within faults is a critical parameter governing fault strength and stability the model predicts that frictional strength at midcrustal depths is significantly reduced relative to byerlee s law only for thick fault zones the reduction in strength is due to the operation of a strain rate sensitive friction mechanism involving combined cataclasis and solution transfer the rheologic model predicts that only very thin faults display the rate dependent characteristics necessary for initiation of seismic slip to any significant depth in the crust

asperities and barriers on the seismogenic zone in north chile state of the art after the 2007 mw 7 7 tocopilla earthquake inferred by gps and insar data the mw 7 7 2007 november 14 earthquake had an epicentre located close to the city of tocopilla at the southern end of a known seismic gap in north chile through modelling of global positioning system gps and radar interferometry insar data we show that this event ruptured the deeper part of the seismogenic interface 30 50 km and did not reach the surface the earthquake initiated at the hypocentre and was arrested 150 km south beneath the mejillones peninsula an area already identified as an important structural barrier between two segments of the peru chile subduction zone our preferred models for the tocopilla main shock show slip concentrated in two main asperities consistent with previous inversions of seismological data slip appears to have propagated towards relatively shallow depths at its southern extremity under the mejillones peninsula our analysis of post seismic deformation suggests that small but still significant post seismic slip occurred within the first 10 d after the main shock and that it was mostly concentrated at the southern end of the rupture the post seismic deformation occurring in this period represents 12 19 per cent of the coseismic deformation of which 30 55 per cent has been released aseismically post seismic slip appears to concentrate within regions that exhibit low coseismic slip suggesting that the afterslip distribution during the first month of the post seismic interval complements the coseismic slip the 2007 tocopilla earthquake released only 2 5 per cent of the moment deficit accumulated on the interface during the past 130 yr and may be regarded as a possible precursor of a larger subduction earthquake rupturing partially or completely the 500 km long north chile seismic gap

dynamics of izmit earthquake postseismic deformation and loading of the duzce earthquake hypocenter we have developed dynamic finite element models of izmit earthquake postseismic deformation to evaluate whether this deformation is better explained by afterslip via either velocity strengthening frictional slip or linear viscous creep or by distributed linear viscoelastic relaxation of the lower crust we find that velocity strengthening frictional afterslip driven by coseismic shear stress loading can reproduce time dependent global positioning system data better than either linear viscous creep on a vertical shear zone below the rupture or lower crustal viscoelastic relaxation our best frictional afterslip model fits the main features of postseismic slip inversions in particular high slip patches at and below the hypocenter and on the western karadere segment and limited afterslip west of the hersek delta burgmann et al 2002 the model requires a weakly velocity strengthening fault that is either low effective normal stress in the slipping regions or a smaller value for the parameter describing rate dependence of friction a b than is indicated by laboratory experiments our best afterslip model suggests that the coulomb stress at the duzce hypocenter increased by 0 14 mpa 1 4 bars during the izmit earthquake assuming right lateral slip on a surface dipping 50 to the north and by another 0 1 mpa during the 87 days between the izmit and duzce earthquakes in the marmara sea region within about 160 km of the izmit earthquake rupture this model indicates that the coulomb stresses increased by 15 25 of the coseismic amount during the first 300 days after the earthquake three hundred days after the earthquake postseismic contributions to coulomb stressing rate on the maramara region faults had fallen to values equal to or less than the inferred secular stress accumulation rate our estimates of postseismic coulomb stress are highly model dependent in the marmara region the linear viscous shear zone and viscoelastic lower crust models predict greater postseismic coulomb stresses than the frictional afterslip model near field stress and fault zone rheology estimates are sensitive to the earth9s elastic structure when a layered elastic structure is incorporated in our model it yields a coulomb stress of 0 24 mpa at the duzce hypocenter significantly more than the 0 14 mpa estimated from the uniform elastic model because of the higher near field coseismic stresses the layered elastic model requires a higher value of velocity strengthening parameter a b a b times effective normal stress r to produce comparable postseismic slip a b is estimated at 0 4 and 0 2 mpa respectively for the layered and uniform elastic models these results highlight the importance of understanding the earth9s elastic structure and the mechanism for postseismic deformation if we wish to accurately model coseismic and postseismic crustal stresses

interseismic deformation and creep along the central section of the north anatolian fault turkey insar observations and implications for rate and state friction properties 1 we present high resolution measurements of interseismic deformation along the central section of the north anatolian fault naf in turkey using interferometric synthetic aperture radar data from the advanced land observing satellite and envisat missions we generated maps of satellite line of sight velocity using five ascending advanced land observing satellite tracks and one descending envisat track covering the naf between 31 2 e and 34 3 e the line of sight velocity reveals discontinuities of up to 5 mm yr across the ismetpasa segment of the naf implying surface creep at a rate of 9 mm yr this is a large fraction of the inferred slip rate of the naf 21 25 mm yr the lateral extent of significant surface creep is about 75 km we model the inferred surface velocity and shallow fault creep using numerical simulations of spontaneous earthquake sequences that incorporate laboratory derived rate and state friction our results indicate that frictional behavior in the ismetpasa segment is velocity strengthening at shallow depths and transitions to velocity weakening at a depth of 3 6 km the inferred depth extent of shallow fault creep is 5 5 7 km suggesting that the deeper locked portion of the partially creeping segment is characterized by a higher stressing rate smaller events and shorter recurrence interval we also reproduce surface velocity in a locked segment of the naf by fault models with velocity weakening conditions at shallow depth our results imply that frictional behavior in a shallow portion of major active faults with little or no shallow creep is mostly velocity weakening

imaging surface contacts power law contact distributions and contact stresses in quartz calcite glass and acrylic plastic a procedure has been developed to obtain microscope images of regions of contact between roughened surfaces of transparent materials while the surfaces are subjected to static loads or undergoing frictional slip static loading experiments with quartz calcite soda lime glass and acrylic plastic at normal stresses to 30 mpa yield power law distributions of contact areas from the smallest contacts that can be resolved 3 5 m2 up to a limiting size that correlates with the grain size of the abrasive grit used to roughen the surfaces in each material increasing normal stress results in a roughly linear increase of the real area of contact mechanisms of contact area increase are by growth of existing contacts coalescence of contacts and appearance of new contacts mean contacts stresses are consistent with the indentation strength of each material contact size distributions are insensitive to normal stress indicating that the increase of contact area is approximately self similar the contact images and contact distributions are modeled using simulations of surfaces with random fractal topographies the contact process for model fractal surfaces is represented by the simple expedient of removing material at regions where surface irregularities overlap synthetic contact images created by this approach reproduce observed characteristics of the contacts and demonstrate that the exponent in the power law distributions depends on the scaling exponent used to generate the surface topography

implications of fault constitutive properties for earthquake prediction the rate and state dependent constitutive formulation for fault slip characterizes an exceptional variety of materials over a wide range of sliding conditions this formulation provides a unified representation of diverse sliding phenomena including slip weakening over a characteristic sliding distance dc apparent fracture energy at a rupture front time dependent healing after rapid slip and various other transient and slip rate effects laboratory observations and theoretical models both indicate that earthquake nucleation is accompanied by long intervals of accelerating slip strains from the nucleation process on buried faults generally could not be detected if laboratory values of dc apply to faults in nature however scaling of dc is presently an open question and the possibility exists that measurable premonitory creep may precede some earthquakes earthquake activity is modeled as a sequence of earthquake nucleation events in this model earthquake clustering arises from sensitivity of nucleation times to the stress changes induced by prior earthquakes the model gives the characteristic omori aftershock decay law and assigns physical interpretation to aftershock parameters the seismicity formulation predicts large changes of earthquake probabilities result from stress changes two mechanisms for foreshocks are proposed that describe observed frequency of occurrence of foreshock mainshock pairs by time and magnitude with the first mechanism foreshocks represent a manifestation of earthquake clustering in which the stress change at the time of the foreshock increases the probability of earthquakes at all magnitudes including the eventual mainshock with the second model accelerating fault slip on the mainshock nucleation zone triggers foreshocks

postseismic deformation induced by brittle rock damage of aftershocks 1 large earthquakes are commonly followed by abundant aftershocks that are densely located around the coseismic rupture zone laboratory experiments indicate that microscopic brittle rock failures acoustic emission are associated collectively with a macroscopic damage related inelastic relaxation utilizing basic relations between local brittle failures and gradual inelastic strain in a viscoelastic damage rheology model we develop connections between aftershock decay rates and the aftershocks induced component of geodetic deformation the discussed mechanism is relevant for postseismic relaxation produced by sources located within the seismogenic zone and especially in regions that overlap locations of high aftershocks activity assuming the omori utsu decay rate for aftershocks we find that the temporal decay of the damage related postseismic relaxation follows a generalized power law relation with the standard omori utsu law as a limit case the results provide a way for estimating the separate contributions to observed postseismic displacements that stem from brittle failures in the seismogenic zone aftershocks and other aseismic processes using the obtained theoretical expectations we analyze postseismic displacements measured by gps stations around the north anatolian fault 3 months following the 1999 m7 4 izmit earthquake we find that the observed postseismic displacements decay slower than the aftershock seismicity based on our theoretical results we conclude that up to 50 of the measured surface displacements at near fault sites can be attributed to aftershock induced inelastic deformation in the seismogenic zone the remainder postseismic deformation can generally be explained by relaxation in the deeper ductile substrate

horizontal coseismic deformation of the 1999 chi chi earthquake measured from spot satellite images implications for the seismic cycle along the western foothills of central taiwan 1 the 1999 chi chi earthquake mw 7 6 broke a major thrust fault along the western foothills of the central range of taiwan we have measured the horizontal coseismic displacement field by correlating optical satellite images acquired before and after the earthquake these data reveal the fault trace and a clockwise rotation of surface displacements toward the north with much larger displacements and strain in the hanging wall at the surface coseismic slip increases from 5 6 m near the epicenter to 10 11 m to the north in the epicentral area we observe a left lateral strike slip zone trending n125 e and farther north a fault zone trending n s with a right lateral component the data were modeled using elastic dislocations the fault geometry consists of a shallow

cataclastic deformation of garnet a record of synseismic loading and postseismic creep abstract microstructural evidence for episodic deformation of the uppermost plastosphere related to failure of the schizosphere in major seismic events has been previously reported from the sesia zone western alps with inferred extraordinarily high stresses and strain rates for the early stages of creep during stress relaxation at temperatures of about 300 350 c in some of these rocks crystals of the high strength mineral garnet embedded in a quartz matrix are intensely fragmented detailed optical electron microprobe and scanning electron microscopic study combined with electron backscatter diffraction techniques suggests that fragmentation of garnet took place quasi instantaneously at very high peak stresses subsequent deformation during stress relaxation caused displacement of the garnet fragments by frictional sliding controlled by dislocation creep in the surrounding quartz matrix in a final stage after restoration of a near lithostatic pore fluid pressure the garnet fragments were pulled apart and the opening cracks were filled by quartz and feldspar precipitated from the pore fluid this record appears to be consistent with the proposed model of synseismic loading and postseismic creep and the related pore pressure changes

a slow earthquake sequence on the san andreas fault earthquakes typically release stored strain energy on timescales of the order of seconds limited by the velocity of sound in rock over the past 20 years observations1 13 and laboratory experiments14 have indicated that rupture can also occur more slowly with durations up to hours such events may be important in earthquake nucleation15 and in accounting for the excess of plate convergence over seismic slip in subduction zones the detection of events with larger timescales requires near field deformation measurements in december 1992 two borehole strainmeters close to the san andreas fault in california recorded a slow strain event of about a week in duration and we show here that the strain changes were produced by a slow earthquake sequence equivalent magnitude 4 8 with complexity similar to that of regular earthquakes the largest earthquakes associated with these slow events were small local magnitude 3 7 and contributed negligible strain release the importance of slow earthquakes in the seismogenic process remains an open question but these observations extend the observed timescale for slow events by two orders of magnitude

deformation on nearby faults induced by the 1999 hector mine earthquake interferometric synthetic aperture radar observations of surface deformation due to the 1999 hector mine earthquake reveal motion on several nearby faults of the eastern california shear zone we document both vertical and horizontal displacements of several millimeters to several centimeters across kilometer wide zones centered on pre existing faults portions of some faults experienced retrograde that is opposite to their long term geologic slip motion during or shortly after the earthquake the observed deformation likely represents elastic response of compliant fault zones to the permanent co seismic stress changes the induced fault displacements imply decreases in the effective shear modulus within the kilometer wide fault zones indicating that the latter are mechanically distinct from the ambient crustal rocks

a slow thrust slip event following the two 1996 hyuganada earthquakes beneath the bungo channel southwest japan we report a slow thrust slip event that occurred beneath the bungo channel region southwestern japan on oct and dec 1996 two hyuganada earthquakes both mw 6 7 followed by afterslips occurred in addition a crustal movement characterized by an extremely slow rise was observed around the bungo channel about 200 km north from the epicenters and continued for about 300 days long assuming a slow slip on the plate boundary we estimate its duration and surface displacements from gps time series data by curve fitting and then determine the fault slip distribution we found that a slow slip without any earthquakes continued for nearly one year and released the seismic moment comparable to that of the hyuganada earthquakes occurrence of the slow thrust slip event suggests that this kind of event may be a characteristic mode of stress release at a transition region of interplate coupling

viscoelastic postseismic rebound from strike slip earthquakes in regions of oblique plate convergence according to the slip partitioning concept the trench parallel component of relative plate motion in regions of oblique convergence is accommodated by strike slip faulting in the overriding continental lithosphere the pattern of postseismic surface deformation due to viscoelastic flow in the lower crust and asthenosphere following a major earthquake on such a fault is modified from that predicted from the conventional elastic layer over viscoelastic half space model by the presence of the subducting slab the predicted effects such as a partial suppression of the postseismic velocities by 1 cm yr or more immediately following a moderate to great earthquake are potentially detectable using contemporary geodetic techniques

on the mechanics of earthquake afterslip we propose a model for earthquake afterslip based on rate and state variable friction laws in the model afterslip is attributed to the interaction of a velocity weakening region at depth within which earthquakes nucleate with an upper region of velocity strengthening frictional behavior the existence of this upper region is supported by independent seismologic observations and the results of laboratory friction experiments in our model afterslip is the result of relaxation of a stress perturbation within the velocity strengthening region which arises when an earthquake propagates into that region from below we derive the stress perturbation and its decay from the friction constitutive law using a simple 1 degree of freedom approximation for the elastic interaction between the fault and its surroundings this approximation is based on thickness averaged displacements and slip velocities within the velocity strengthening region which is assumed to slip as a rigid block coseismic and postseismic slip are coupled through the thickness averaged stiffness k of the velocity strengthening region we assume k to be inversely proportional to the thickness of this region which means that thicker velocity strengthening regions have a greater tendency to arrest coseismic slip we model the afterslip time histories of the 1966 parkfield and 1987 superstition hills earthquakes and relate the model parameters to physical parameters which may govern the rheologic behavior of the faults in accord with field observations our model predicts 1 that afterslip on some faults scales with the thickness of the unconsolidated sedimentary cover and 2 that proportionally more afterslip occurs for earthquakes in which coseismic surface slip is small compared with coseismic slip at depth velocity strengthening frictional behavior is to be expected for faults within poorly consolidated sediments and for those that contain significant gouge zones about 500 m within their shallow regions 3 5 km combining our results with those of recent laboratory friction studies indicates that relatively young faults with little accumulated fault gouge should exhibit little afterslip

postseismic relaxation driven by brittle creep a possible mechanism to reconcile geodetic measurements and the decay rate of aftershocks application to the chi chi earthquake taiwan we evaluate the effect of coseismic stress changes on the fault slip at midcrustal depth assuming a velocity strengthening brittle creep rheology we show that this model can help reconcile the time evolution of afterslip as measured from geodesy with aftershocks decay we propose an analytical expression for slip of the brittle creeping fault zone bcfz that applies to any dynamic or static stress perturbation including shear stress and normal stress changes the model predicts an initial logarithmic increase of slip with time postseismic slip rate decays over a characteristic time t r a that does not depend on the amplitude of the stress perturbation and it asymptotically joins the long term creep imposed by interseismic stress buildup given that the seismicity rate might be considered proportional to the sliding velocity of the bcfz the model predicts a decay rate of aftershocks that follows omori s law with a mathematical formalism identical to that of dieterich 1994 although based on a different mechanical rationale our model also differs from dieterich s model in that it requires that aftershock sequences and deep afterslip as constrained from geodetic measurements should follow the same temporal evolution we test this for the 1999 chi chi earthquake m w 7 6 and find that both sets of data are consistent with a model of afterslip due to the response of the bcfz the inferred relaxation time t r 8 5 years requires a value for a log v being the coefficient of friction in the range between 1 3 10 3 and 10 2

postseismic relaxation associated with transient creep rheology 1 perfettini and avouac 2004 postulated that both the aftershock rate assumed proportional to the local stressing rate and the postseismic relaxation are driven by the loading imposed by postseismic slip on the brittle creep fault zone bcfz the downdip extension of the fault zone below the coseismic rupture i explore the consequences of that hypothesis for a long strike slip fault in the case where the bcfz rheology is compatible with ordinary transient creep creep strain proportional to loge 1 t 2 because the important relaxation occurs near the bottom of the coseismic rupture i calculate the postearthquake response with a model in which the bcfz is represented by a viscoelastic half space below the coseismic rupture i find that both the predicted postseismic relaxation and the cumulative number of aftershocks can be approximated by the same temporal dependence nmo t amo 1 1 t 1 p p 1 where t is the time after the earthquake and amo and p are the constants chosen to fit either data set notice that dnmo t dt amo 1 t p is the modified omori law used to describe the rate of aftershock occurrence thus the modified omori law can be understood as a consequence of the perfettini avouac hypothesis aftershocks driven by slip on the bcfz and a bcfz rheology compatible with ordinary transient creep moreover the temporal dependence nmo t has been shown to fit postseismic surface deformation following at least 9 earthquakes i also show that the conventional one dimensional spring block model of a bfcz with a rheology compatible with ordinary transient creep leads to the same temporal dependence nmo t

postseismic strain following the 1989 loma prieta earthquake from gps and leveling measurements postseismic deformation in the 5 years following the 1989 loma prieta earthquake has been measured with the global positioning system and precise leveling postearthquake velocities at distances greater than 20 km from the coseismic rupture are not significantly different from those observed in the 20 years prior to the earthquake however velocities at stations within 20 km of the rupture exceed preearthquake rates and exhibit unanticipated contraction normal to the strike of the san andreas fault system a combination of forward modeling and nonlinear optimization suggests that the observed postseismic deformations were caused by aseismic oblique reverse slip averaging 2 9 cm yr on the san andreas fault and or the loma prieta rupture zone and 2 4 cm yr reverse slip along a buried fault within the foothills thrust belt the best fitting sources of postseismic deformation are all located at depths of less than 15 km we find no evidence for accelerated flow or shear below the loma prieta rupture in the first 5 years following the earthquake the inferred postseismic slip is likely to have been caused by the coseismic stress change updip of the 1989 rupture

modeling earthquake cycles in the shumagin subduction segment alaska with seismic and geodetic constraints deformation associated with the earthquake cycle in the shumagin islands segment of the alaska aleutian subduction zone is analyzed with the use of a two dimensional finite element model the model consists of an oceanic plate dipping under an upper plate both of which respond elastically to stress fluctuations in the earthquake cycle and these are underlain by asthenospheric mantle and mantle wedge regions which respond viscoelastically it is tailored to the geometry of the shumagin islands region by using seismicity to define the position of the interplate interface and partially coupled region along it the model is preconditioned by forcing this interface to undergo periodically repeated slips up to and including the time of the may 31 1917 event ms 7 4 in that region with each chosen to be consistent with the moment and estimated rupture area of that event we investigated the dependence of model results for geodetic signals on the strength of seismic coupling between the plates and viscoelastic relaxation of deviatoric stresses in the mantle including in the mantle wedge close to the plate junction and along the aseismic downdip continuation of the thrust interface in models with significant relaxation in the wedge or downdip thrust zone results show that as the intraseismic stage matures there is a region of diminished compressional strain rates and even of locally extensional rates on the earth s surface above the downdip end of the seismically coupled zone based on the seismic estimates of the location of the coupled zone this region is in the area of the shumagin islands we find that if approximately 20 of the convergence takes place seismically compatible with the previous seismic history and if an extensive region of relaxed deviatoric stress is assumed to be present in the wedge and or along the downdip interface then deformations predicted by the model can be made consistent with the measured strain data from the shumagin islands geodetic network lisowski et al 1988 larson and lisowski 1994 as well as uplift and tilt data savage and plafker 1991 beavan 1992 our model simulations here suggest that the shumagin segment is capable of large earthquakes the hypothesis of totally aseismic subduction is not similarly consistent with all geodetic constraints

rapid afterslip following the 1999 chi chi taiwan earthquake 1 postseismic displacements of as much as 14 cm were recorded by gps measurements in the 3 months following the mw 7 6 1999 chi chi taiwan earthquake data from 35 continuous and 90 campaign surveyed stations which show continued east over west thrusting are analyzed to estimate the postseismic slip distribution and fault geometry assuming the shallow fault dips 24 e as determined by numerous studies of the mainshock we invert for the deeper fault structure our results show that the fault dip shallows with depth below the hypocenter merging into a nearly horizontal decollement at a depth of 8 12 km the afterslip distribution shows a maximum slip of 25 cm in the hypocentral region at 7 12 km depth as well as significant slip on the lower decollement afterslip is notably absent in the region of maximum coseismic slip consistent with the afterslip being driven by the mainshock stress change

stress field associated with the rupture of the 1992 landers california earthquake and its implications concerning the fault strength at the onset of the earthquake we investigate the space and time history of the shear stress produced on the fault during the 1992 landers earthquake the stress is directly calculated from the tomographic image of slip on the fault derived from near source strong motion data the results obtained shed some light on why the earthquake rupture cascaded along a series of previously distinct fault segments to produce the largest earthquake in california in over 40 years rupture on the 30 km long northernmost segment of the fault was triggered by a large dynamic increase of the stress field of the order of 20 to 30 mpa produced by the rupturing of the adjacent fault segments such a large increase was necessary to overcome the static friction on this strand of the fault unfavorably oriented in today s tectonic stress field this misorientation eventually led to the arrest of rupture the same mechanism explains why rupture broke only a small portion of the johnson valley fault on which the earthquake originally started before jumping to an adjacent fault more favorably oriented we conclude from these results that the dynamic stress field could not sustain and drive the rupture along the strongly misoriented nw se strands of the preexisting fault system instead the dynamic stress field produced new fractures favorably oriented in a n s direction and connecting parts of the old fault system

the 2016 kumamoto mw 7 0 earthquake a significant event in a fault volcano system the 2016 kumamoto earthquake sequence occurred on the futagawa hinagu fault zone near the aso volcano on kyushu island the sequence was initiated with two major m w 6 0 foreshocks and the mainshock m w 7 0 occurred 25 h after the second major foreshock we combine gps strong motion synthetic aperture radar images and surface offset data in a joint inversion to resolve the kinematic rupture process of the mainshock and coseismic displacement of the foreshocks the joint inversion results reveal a unilateral rupture process for the mainshock involving sequential rupture of four major asperities the slip area of the foreshocks and mainshock and the aftershock loci form a detailed complementary pattern the mainshock rupture terminates near the rim of the caldera leaving a 10 km long gap of aftershocks this area is characterized by high temperature and low shear wave velocity density and resistivity which may be related to the partially melted geothermal condition ductile material property near the volcano may act as a material barrier to the dynamic rupture topographic weight of the caldera increases compressional normal stress on the fault plane which may behave as a stress barrier long term seismic hazard and deformation behaviors related to these two types of barriers are discussed in terms of the associated frictional mechanism significant postseismic creeps observed near the volcano area indicates a velocity strengthening frictional behavior near the rupture termination which confirms that the material barrier mechanism is likely the dominant rupture termination mechanism

rapid postseismic transients in subduction zones from continuous gps 1 continuous gps time series from three of four recently measured large subduction earthquakes document triggered rapid postseismic fault creep representing an additional moment release upward of 25 over the weeks following their main shocks data from two mw 8 0 and mw 8 4 events constrain the postseismic centroids to lie down dip from the lower limit of coseismic faulting and show that afterslip along the primary coseismic asperities is significantly less important than triggered deep creep time series for another mw 7 7 event show 30 postseismic energy release but here we cannot differentiate between afterslip and triggered deeper creep a fourth mw 8 1 event which occurred in the broad chilean seismogenic zone shows no postseismic deformation despite coseismic offsets in excess of 1 m for the three events which are followed by postseismic deformation stress transferred to the inferred centroids at 34 60 and 36 km depths by their respective main shock asperities increased reverse shear stress by 0 5 0 8 and 0 2 bar with a comparatively small decrease in normal stress 0 01 bar constraining the coulomb stress increase required to force slip along the metastable plate interface deep triggered slip of this nature is invisible without continuous geodesy but on the basis of these earthquakes would appear to constitute an important mode of strain release from beneath the seismogenic zones of convergent margins these events captured by some of the first permanent gps networks show that deep moment release is often modulated by seismogenic rupture updip and underscore the need for continuous geodesy to fully quantify the spectrum of moment release in great earthquakes index terms 7209 seismology earthquake dynamics and mechanics 3040 marine geology and geophysics plate tectonics 8150 8155 8157 8158 8150 tectonophysics plate boundary general 3040 7230 seismology seismicity and seismotectonics keywords subduction zone earthquake postseismic moment release

no evidence of unusually large postseismic deformation in andaman region immediately after 2004 sumatra andaman earthquake 1 static offsets due to the 26 december 2004 sumatra andaman earthquake have been reported from the campaign mode gps measurements in the andaman nicobar region however these measurements contain contributions from postseismic deformation that must have occurred in the 16 25 days period between the earthquake and the measurements we analyse these and tide gauge measurements of coseismic deformation a longer time series of postseismic deformation from gps measurements at port blair in the south andaman and aftershocks to suggest that postseismic displacement not larger than 7 cm occurred in the 16 25 days following the earthquake in the south andaman and probably elsewhere in the andaman nicobar region earlier this contribution was estimated to be as large as 1 m in the andaman region which implied that the magnitude of the earthquake based on these campaign mode measurements should be decreased we suggest an mw for this earthquake as 9 23

crustal earthquake instability in relation to the depth variation of frictional slip properties recent stability studies using constitutive relations of the type found by dieterich ruina and others to describe frictional slip of rocks in the laboratory have provided a new explanation of the depth cutoff of shallow crustal earthquakes the class of friction laws discussed has the property that the sliding stress depends on normal stress temperature slip rate and slip history for sliding at a fixed slip rate v and fixed environment e g normal stress temperature etc the shear strength evolves toward a steady state value ss v stability analysis show that for d ss v dv 0 velocity strengthening implies stable steady state sliding at least for a broad class of constitutive laws more fully described in the paper experiments by dieterich and by tullis and weeks on westerly granite with mature sliding surfaces indicate that d ss v dv is negative at room temperature whereas higher temperature experiments by stesky show that d ss v dv becomes positive above approximately 300 c therefore in the case of the earth where temperature increases with depth the above observations seem to suggest that the depth cutoff of crustal earthquake activity can be understood in terms of the variation of the frictional response with depth from a regime with d ss v dv 0 this is not inconsistent with but rather refines the suggestion by sibson and others that the depth cutoff is due to a transition from brittle friction to ductile flow further our results show definitively that the shallow depth confinement of seismicity is compatible with a model in which deformation is localized to a fault zone extending well below the seismogenic depth the depth confinement does not require a model showing transition to a zone of broadly distributed creep flow beneath the seismogenic zone following mavko a two dimensional quasi static strike slip fault model is analyzed but using different numerical procedures and a depth variation of frictional properties based on the laboratory data mentioned above and the lachenbruch sass depth variation of temperature for the san andreas fault the resulting predictions of such features as the confinement of crustal earthquakes to shallow depths the development of locked patches the recurrence time for the seismic cycle the seismic stress drop and displacement etc are generally in agreement with the observed characteristics of large scale strike slip earthquakes along the san andreas fault calculations based on the laboratory data predict for example that stick slip nucleates around 5 7 km that large seismic motion occurs around the nucleation depth and above but diminishes gradually to zero at 13 15 km depths that rapid postseismic creep occurs over another 3 4 km depth and that at greater depths steady slip consistent with the average plate velocity is only modestly perturbed by the earthquakes occurring above the most uncertain parameter is the slip weakening distance l for evolution of fault surface state we illustrate how features of the predicted earthquake cycles vary with l over the range for which calculations are feasible

velocity field of gps stations in the taiwan area abstract the 131 stations of the taiwan gps network were surveyed 4 6 times from 1990 to 1995 with dual frequency geodetic receivers the standard deviation of an observed baseline length with its linear trend removed is in the range of 6 10 mm for a 3 120 km long baseline the average rates of length change for all baselines of the network and those from nine continuously monitoring permanent stations are used in a least squares adjustment to estimate the velocities of the gps stations relative to paisha penghu situated at the chinese continental margin to the south of fengping in the northern coastal range the velocity vectors of stations in lanhsu lutao and the coastal range trend in the directions of 306 322 with rates of 56 82 mm yr in contrast there is a dramatic decrease in the rates to the north of fengping this may be caused by the motion along the ne sw trending thrusts which obliquely cut the northern coastal range a discontinuity of about 30 mm yr in the rates along with a remarkable change in the directions of station velocity is observed across the longitudinal valley then the moving directions gradually shift to the west for the stations in the western foothills in the kaohsiung pingtung coastal area the station velocities are even directed toward the southwest to the north of the peikang high the velocity vectors of the stations change direction from the west gradually to the north and finally to the east and southeast significant nw se extensional deformation is found in the ilan plain and northern taiwan in general the pattern of the velocity field for gps stations in the taiwan area is quite consistent with the directions of present day tectonic stress

surface rupture of 1999 chi chi earthquake yields insights on active tectonics of central taiwan the 1999 chi chi earthquake was caused by rupture of the chelungpu fault one of the most prominent active thrust faults of taiwan this largest of taiwan s historical fault ruptures broke the surface for over 90 km at the western base of the rugged mountain range a short right lateral tear extended southwestward from the southern end of the chelungpu fault and a complex assemblage of shallow folds and faults ran northeastward from the northern end vertical offsets averaged about 2 m along the southern half of the chelungpu fault and about 4 m along the northern half and offsets of 5 to 7 m were typical along the northern part of the major thrust the sinuous nature of the surface trace is consistent with seismographic data that indicate a dip of about 30 the 1999 rupture draws attention to the fact that this active fault system is highly segmented and that this segmentation influences the characteristics of seismic ruptures active faults to the south north and west of the chelungpu fault have distinctly different characteristics faults to the south and north broke the surface during earthquakes in 1906 and 1935 the active changhua fault to the west a blind thrust similar in length to the chelungpu has not ruptured in the historical period and should be considered a prime candidate for generating a future earthquake manuscript received 4 october 2000

early postseismic deformation from the 16 october 1999 mw 7 1 hector mine california earthquake as measured by survey mode gps the 16 october 1999 m w 7 1 hector mine earthquake was the largest earthquake in california since the 1992 m w 7 3 landers event the hector mine earthquake occurred in the eastern mojave desert where the density of permanent global positioning system gps stations is relatively low since the earthquake groups from the united states geological survey university of southern california university of california los angeles university of california san diego and massachusetts institute of technology have made postseismic survey mode observations to increase the spatial coverage of deformation measurements a total of 55 sites were surveyed with markers from a few meters to 100 km from the surface rupture we present velocity estimates for the 32 sites that had enough repeated observations between 17 october 1999 and 26 march 2000 to provide reliable results these survey mode data complement the temporal and spatial coverage provided by newly installed southern california integrated geodetic network permanent gps stations and future interferometric synthetic aperture radar postseismic results we then use the postseismic velocity estimates to compute a simple afterslip model results of inversions show that the observed velocities are consistent with deep afterslip occuring underneath the coseismic rupture area

ice sheet in peril earth s large ice sheets in greenland and antarctica are major contributors to sea level change at present the greenland ice sheet see the photo is losing mass in response to climate warming in greenland 1 but the present changes also include a long term response to past climate transitions on page 590 of this issue macgregor et al 2 estimate the mean rates of snow accumulation and ice flow of the greenland ice sheet over the past 9000 years based on an ice sheet wide dated radar stratigraphy 3 they show that the present changes of the greenland ice sheet are partly an ongoing response to the last deglaciation the results help to clarify how sensitive the ice sheet is to climate changes

frictional slip of granite at hydrothermal conditions sliding on faults in much of the continental crust likely occurs at hydrothermal conditions i e at elevated temperature and elevated pressure of aqueous pore fluids yet there have been few relevant laboratory studies to measure the strength sliding behavior and friction constitutive properties of faults at hydrothermal conditions we slid laboratory granite faults containing a layer of granite powder simulated gouge velocity stepping experiments were performed at temperatures of 23 to 600 c pore fluid pressures ph2o of 0 dry and 100 mpa wet effective normal stress of 400 mpa and sliding velocities v of 0 01 to 1 m s 0 32 to 32 m yr conditions were similar to those in earlier tests on dry granite to 845 c by lockner et al 1986 the mechanical results define two regimes the first regime includes dry granite up to at least 845 and wet granite below 250 c in this regime the coefficient of friction is high 0 7 to 0 8 and depends only modestly on temperature slip rate and ph2o the second regime includes wet granite above 350 c in this regime friction decreases considerably with increasing temperature temperature weakening and with decreasing slip rate velocity strengthening these regimes correspond well to those identified in sliding tests on ultrafine quartz we infer that one or more fluid assisted deformation mechanisms are activated in the second hydrothermal regime and operate concurrently with cataclastic flow slip in the first cool and or dry regime is characterized by pervasive shearing and particle size reduction slip in the second hot and wet regime is localized primarily onto narrow shear bands adjacent to the gouge rock interfaces weakness of these boundary shears may result either from an abundance of phyllosilicates preferentially aligned for easy dislocation glide or from a dependence of strength on gouge particle size major features of the granite data set can be fit reasonably well by a rate and temperature dependent three regime friction constitutive model chester this issue we extrapolate the experimental data and model fit in order to estimate steady state shear strength versus depth along natural slipping faults for sliding rates as low as 31 mm yr we do this for two end member cases in the first case pore pressure is assumed hydrostatic at all depths shallow crustal strength in this case is similar to that calculated in previous work from room temperature friction data while at depths below about 9 13 km depending on slip rate strength becomes less sensitive to depth but sensitive to slip rate in the second case pore pressure is assumed to be near lithostatic at depths below 5 km strength is low at all depths in this case 20 mpa in agreement with observations of weak faults such as the san andreas the predicted depth of transition from velocity weakening to velocity strengthening lies at about 13 km depth for a slip rate of 31 mm yr in rough agreement with the seismic aseismic transition depth observed on mature continental faults these results highlight the importance of fluid assisted deformation processes active in faults at depth and the need for laboratory studies on the roles of additional factors such as fluid chemistry large displacements higher concentrations of phyllosilicates and time dependent fault healing

geodetic observations of postseismic creep in the decade after the 1999 izmit earthquake turkey implications for a shallow slip deficit the relationship between aseismic slip and tectonic loading is important for understanding both the pattern of strain accumulation along a fault and its ability to generate large earthquakes we investigate the spatial distribution and temporal evolution of aseismic creep on the western north anatolian fault naf using time series analysis of envisat interferometric synthetic aperture radar insar data covering the full extent of the 1999 izmit and duzce earthquake ruptures and spanning 2002 2010 discontinuities in the line of sight velocity across the fault imply that fault creep reaches the earth s surface at an average fault parallel rate of 5 mm yr along an 80 km section of the naf by combining insar and published gps velocities we are able to extract the vertical and east west components of motion and show that the adapazari basin is subsiding at a rate of 6 mm yr vertical motions have biased previous estimates of creep in this region the displacement time series close to the fault is consistent with an afterslip model based on rate and state friction which predicts a rapid deceleration in fault creep rate after the izmit earthquake to a near steady state 5 mm yr after 5 years projecting our model 200 years into the future we find that the cumulative displacement of 1 1 3 m is insufficient to account for the shallow coseismic slip deficit observed in previous studies distributed off fault deformation in the shallow crust or transient episodes of faster slip are likely required to release some of the long term strain during the earthquake cycle

postseismic grace and gps observations indicate a rheology contrast above and below the sumatra slab more than 7 years of observations of postseismic relaxation after the 2004 sumatra andaman earthquake provide an improving view on the deformation in the wide vicinity of the 2004 rupture we include both gravity recovery and climate experiment grace gravity field data that show a large postseismic signal over the rupture area and gps observations in the back arc region with increasing time gps and grace show contrasting relaxation styles that were not easily discernible on shorter time series we investigate whether mantle creep can simultaneously explain the far field surface displacements and the long wavelength gravity changes we interpret contrasts in the temporal behavior of the gps grace observations in terms of lateral variations in rheological properties of the asthenosphere below and above the slab based on 1 d viscoelastic models our results support an almost order of magnitude contrast between oceanic lithosphere viscosity and continental viscosity which likely means that the low viscosities frequently found from postseismic deformation after subduction earthquakes are valid only for the mantle wedge next to mantle creep we also consider afterslip as an alternative mechanism for postseismic deformation we investigate how the combination of grace and gps data can better discriminate between different mechanisms of postseismic relaxation distributed deformation mantle creep versus localized deformation afterslip we conclude that the grace observed gravity changes rule out afterslip as the dominant mechanism explaining long wavelength deformation even over the first year after the event

stress loading from viscous flow in the lower crust and triggering of aftershocks following the 1994 northridge california earthquake following the m w 6 7 northridge earthquake significant postseismic displacements were resolved with gps using a three dimensional viscoelastic model we suggest that this deformation is mainly driven by viscous flow in the lower crust such flow can transfer stress to the upper crust and load the rupture zone of the main shock at a decaying rate most aftershocks within the rupture zone especially those that occurred after the first several weeks of the main shock may have been triggered by continuous stress loading from viscous flow the long term decay time of aftershocks about 2 years approximately matches the decay of viscoelastic loading and thus is controlled by the viscosity of the lower crust our model provides a physical interpretation of the observed correlation between aftershock decay rate and surface heat flow

slip distribution and tectonic implication of the 1999 chi chi taiwan earthquake we report on the fault complexity of the large m w 7 6 chi chi earthquake obtained by inverting densely and well distributed static measurements consisting of 119 gps and 23 doubly integrated strong motion records we show that the slip of the chi chi earthquake was concentrated on the surface of a wedge shaped block the inferred geometric complexity explains the difference between the strike of the fault plane determined by long period seismic data and surface break observations when combined with other geophysical and geological observations the result provides a unique snapshot of tectonic deformation taking place in the form of very large 10m displacements of a massive wedge shaped crustal block which may relate to the changeover from over thrusting to subducting motion between the philippine sea and the eurasian plates

periodic slow earthquakes from the cascadia subduction zone continuous geodetic measurements from convergent margins have shown that deep transient creep events can release large amounts of strain energy without detectable seismic shaking and they are thus known as slow or silent earthquakes because subduction zones generate the largest earthquakes

comparison of postseismic afterslip models with aftershock seismicity for three subduction zone earthquakes nias 2005 maule 2010 and tohoku 2011 we focus on the relation between seismic and total postseismic afterslip following the maule mw 8 8 earthquake on 2010 february 27 in central chile first we calculate the cumulative slip released by aftershock seismicity we do this by summing up the aftershock regions and slip estimated from scaling relations comparing the cumulative seismic slip with afterslip models we show that seismic slip of individual aftershocks exceeds locally the inverted afterslip model from geodetic constraints as the afterslip model implicitly contains the displacements from the aftershocks this reflects the tendency of afterslip models to smear out the actual slip pattern however it also suggests that locally slip for a number of the larger aftershocks exceeds the aseismic slip in spite of the fact that the total equivalent moment of the afterslip exceeds the cumulative moment of aftershocks by a large factor this effect seen weakly for the maule 2010 and also for the tohoku 2011 earthquake can be explained by taking into account the uncertainties of the seismicity and afterslip models in spite of uncertainties the hypocentral region of the nias 2005 earthquake is suggested to release a large fraction of moment almost purely seismically therefore these aftershocks are not driven solely by the afterslip but instead their slip areas have probably been stressed by interseismic loading and the mainshock rupture in a second step we divide the megathrust of the maule 2010 rupture into discrete cells and count the number of aftershocks that occur within 50 km of the centre of each cell as a function of time we then compare this number to a time dependent afterslip model by defining the afterslip to aftershock ratio asar for each cell as the slope of the best fitting line when the afterslip at time t is plotted against aftershock count although we find a linear relation between afterslip and aftershocks for most cells there is significant variability in asar in both the downdip and along strike directions of the megathrust we compare the spatial distribution of asar with the spatial distribution of seismic coupling coseismic slip and bouguer gravity anomaly and in each case we find no significant correlation

poroelastic rebound along the landers 1992 earthquake surface rupture maps of surface displacement following the 1992 landers california earthquake generated by interferometric processing of ers 1 synthetic aperture radar sar images reveal effects of various postseismic deformation processes along the 1992 surface rupture the large scale pattern of the postseismic displacement field includes large lobes mostly visible on the west side of the fault comparable in shape with the lobes observed in the coseismic displacement field this pattern and the steep displacement gradient observed near the emerson camp rock fault cannot be simply explained by afterslip on deep sections of the 1992 rupture models show that horizontal slip occurring on a buried dislocation in a poisson s material produces a characteristic quadripole pattern in the surface displacement field with several centimeters of vertical motion at distances of 10 20 km from the fault yet this pattern is not observed in the postseismic interferograms as previously proposed to explain local strain in the fault step overs peltzer et al 1996b we argue that poroelastic rebound caused by pore fluid flow may also occur over greater distances from the fault compensating the vertical ground shift produced by fault afterslip such a rebound is explained by the gradual change of the crustal rocks poisson s ratio value from undrained coseismic to drained postseismic conditions as pore pressure gradients produced by the earthquake dissipate using the poisson s ratio values of 0 27 and 0 31 for the drained and undrained crustal rocks respectively elastic dislocation models show that the combined contributions of afterslip on deep sections of the fault and poroelastic rebound can account for the range change observed in the sar data and the horizontal displacement measured at global positioning system gps sites along a 60 km long transect across the emerson fault savage and svarc 1997 using a detailed surface slip distribution on the homestead valley kickapoo and johnson valley faults we modeled the poroelastic rebound in the homestead valley pull apart a poisson s ratio value of 0 35 for the undrained gouge rocks in the fault zone is required to account for the observed surface uplift in the 3 5 years following the earthquake this large value implies a seismic velocity ratio vp vs of 2 1 consistent with the observed low vs values of fault zone guided waves at shallow depth li et al 1997 the sar data also reveal postseismic creep along shallow patches of the eureka peak and burnt mountain faults with a characteristic decay time of 0 8 years coseismic dilatant hardening locking process followed by post seismic pore pressure controlled fault creep provide a plausible mechanism to account for the decay time of the observed slip rate along this section of the fault

viscoelastic shear zone model of a strike slip earthquake cycle i examine the behavior of a two dimensional 2 d strike slip fault system embedded in a 1 d elastic layer schizosphere overlying a uniform viscoelastic half space plastosphere and within the boundaries of a finite width shear zone the viscoelastic coupling model of savage and prescott 1978 considers the viscoelastic response of this system in the absence of the shear zone boundaries to an earthquake occurring within the upper elastic layer steady slip beneath a prescribed depth and the superposition of the responses of multiple earthquakes with characteristic slip occurring at regular intervals so formulated the viscoelastic coupling model predicts that sufficiently long after initiation of the system 1 average fault parallel velocity at any point is the average slip rate of that side of the fault and 2 far field velocities equal the same constant rate because of the sensitivity to the mechanical properties of the schizosphere plastosphere system i e elastic layer thickness plastosphere viscosity this model has been used to infer such properties from measurements of interseismic velocity such inferences exploit the predicted behavior at a known time within the earthquake cycle by modifying the viscoelastic coupling model to satisfy the additional constraint that the absolute velocity at prescribed shear zone boundaries is constant i find that even though the time averaged behavior remains the same the spatiotemporal pattern of surface deformation particularly its temporal variation within an earthquake cycle is markedly different from that predicted by the conventional viscoelastic coupling model these differences are magnified as plastosphere viscosity is reduced or as the recurrence interval of periodic earthquakes is lengthened application to the interseismic velocity field along the mojave section of the san andreas fault suggests that the region behaves mechanically like a 600 km wide shear zone accommodating 50 mrn yr fault parallel motion distributed between the san andreas fault system and eastern california shear zone in the viscoelastic coupling model savage and prescott 1978 time dependent deformation around a strike slip fault zone is realized by loading subsequent rupture and relaxation of a fault present in a schizosphere elastic upper crust overlying a ductile plastosphere assuming a two dimensional 2 d geometry periodic rupture of the fault and identical slip interseismic deformation is obtained as the superposition of viscoelastic relaxation of the plastosphere summed over the infinity of past periodic earthquakes this model yields far field interseismic motions equal to 1 2 of the average slip rate v0 imposed on the fault thus even when no external mechanism is invoked to load the fault i e when the locked portion of the fault penetrates the entire schizosphere the model satisfies the expectation of rigid plate like behavior in the far field in addition when periodic coseismic offsets are factored in the model predicts that the time averaged fault parallel velocity of each point is vol2 depending on location

fault stability inferred from granite sliding experiments at hydrothermal conditions seismicity on crustal faults is concentrated in the depth interval 1 3 to 12 15km tse and rice 1986 suggested that the lower bound on seismicity is due to a switch with increasing temperature from velocity weakening destabilizing to velocity strengthening stabilizing friction they inferred this transition from friction data for dry granite however pore fluids exist at elevated temperatures throughout the crust and may strongly influence strength and sliding behavior we present new data from sliding experiments on granite at elevated t 23 to 600 plus elevated ph2o 100 mpa our results show velocity strengthening at room temperature but velocity weakening from 100 to 350 c except at 250 from 350 to 600 there are systematic trends from velocity weakening to strong velocity strengthening and from high to low friction neither trend was seen in tests on dry granite the velocity dependence data imply the potential for unstable slip in the interval 100 to 350 using a geotherm to map temperature to depth this interval closely matches the observed earthquake distribution

lake bonneville constraints on lithospheric thickness and upper mantle viscosity from isostatic warping of bonneville provo and gilbert stage shorelines the deformed shorelines of the late pleistocene lake bonneville provide an excellent opportunity to analyze the response of the earth to surface loads of relatively short wavelengths 400 km and short duration 30 kyr recently revised estimates of the lake loading history and an expanded compilation of shoreline elevations for the bonneville 1550 m provo 1440 m and gilbert 1300 m shorelines have prompted us to reexamine the deflection the earth model we use is identical with that employed by nakiboglu and lambeck and consists of an elastic plate overlying a maxwell viscoelastic channel and a rigid base our calculation differs from that of nakiboglu and lambeck in two respects we used a significantly more detailed load model and we compared our results with observations from three distinct shorelines the lake elevation history spans 32 kyr in 18 piecewise linear segments the water load is computed at each time step from a digital terrain model 4 4 km cell size and a specified lake elevation we find that the use of three separate shorelines significantly reduces the acceptable region of parameter space the effective elastic lithospheric thickness is 23 2 km the mantle viscosity is 1 2 0 2 1020 pa s and the depth to a significant viscosity increase is no less than 300 km though it might be much more examination of the residual deflections differences between observed and computed shoreline elevations reveals a regional tilt down to the ne of 6 10 5 which we attribute to collapse of the peripheral bulge produced by the laurentide ice sheet

joint estimation of afterslip rate and postseismic relaxation following the 1989 loma prieta earthquake global positioning system gps data from campaigns carried out over the 5 years following the 1989 loma prieta earthquake and leveling data measured in 1990 and 1992 define the postseismic velocity field around the loma prieta rupture zone subtraction of a background velocity field yields a residual velocity pattern which we interpret as the product of two physical processes 1 slow afterslip along distinct planes in the upper cru st and 2 viscoelastic relaxation of the lower crust and upper mantle biirgmann et al 1997 previously derived an afterslip model involving uniform afterslip on two optimally determined planes in cluding oblique reverse slip on the coseismic rupture and reverse slip on a shallow thrust fault to the northeast of the san andreas fault we further consider models of distributed slip on these two fault planes plus a viscoelastic relaxation pattern which depends on a suitable cose ismic rupture model and crust and mantle viscosities several fault models from the literature were considered for the 1989 coseismic rupture with nearly identical impact on the results simultaneous maximum likelihood inversion of the gps and leveling data for afterslip distri bution and viscosity yields the following results 1 a good fit to the data is obtained by smooth afterslip distributions without any viscoelastic relaxation being required 2 tangible broad scale viscoelastic relaxation of the lower crust and upper mantle are present in this data set at 97 confidence and a lower crustal viscosity of 1029 pa s is obtained however the viscosity of both the lower crust and upper mantle are poorly constrained 3 for a given misfit 20 less integrated afterslip and smoother afterslip distributions result when viscoelas tic relaxation is included 4 maximum slip rates on the slip distributed models are 3 5 crn yr the dominant patches estimated on the two planes fill in the entire depth range 4 13 km without significant overlap and deeper afterslip is not required the afterslip distribution on the coseismic rupture plane is strongly dominated by reverse slip immediately southeast of the main center of coseismic reverse slip

mobility of continental mantle evidence from postseismic geodetic observations following the 1992 landers earthquake the crust around the rupture zone of the 1992 landers earthquake has continued to deform in the years following the earthquake at rates 3 times greater than pre earthquake rates we use a combination of global positioning system gps and synthetic aperture radar insar data collected during a 3 year epoch following the earthquake in order to investigate postseismic mechanisms responsible for the high transient velocities in order to maximize the potential signal from viscoelastic relaxation we evaluate and model postseismic relaxation following the first few months of documented accelerated deformation the combination of gps and insar data allows us to establish viscoelastic relaxation of the lower crust and upper mantle as the dominant postseismic process and to discriminate among possible viscoelastic models the data particularly require the presence of a highly ductile uppermost mantle beneath the central mojave domain with temperature between the wet and dry basalt solidus this is consistent with independent seismic and geochemical inferences of a regionally warm uppermost mantle further consideration of seismic velocity variations in conjunction with faulting patterns within the mojave desert suggests that the primary faulting characteristics of the mojave desert namely the pervasive late cenozoic deformation within the eastern california shear zone versus the near absence of faults in the western mojave domain are controlled by the rheology of the uppermost mantle

a five years super slow aseismic precursor model for the 1994 m8 3 hokkaido toho oki lithospheric earthquake based on tide gauge data 1 here we present a super slow aseismic event model prior to the magnitude 8 3 kurile island hokkaido toho oki earthquake on 4 october 1994 based on data recorded by two tide gauges located 50 150 km from the earthquake epicenter both instruments recorded several cm of subsidence during a five year period prior to the earthquake the observed signals are consistent with a precursory quasi stable slip on the western half of the hokkaido toho oki fault plane when recognized such aseismic events can considerably improve our intermediate term several years prediction capability

prolonged post seismic deformation of the 1960 great chile earthquake and implications for mantle rheology 1 contemporary crustal deformation of the southern andean margin shows an interesting feature while nearly all coastal gps sites move landward consistent with inter seismic deformation near a locked subduction fault sites 300 400 km landward of the rupture region of the mw9 5 1960 chile earthquake are moving in the opposite direction we attribute the seaward motion of these inland sites to a prolonged crustal deformation due to mantle stress relaxation following the 1960 great earthquake in order to reproduce the observed seaward motion using a three dimensional finite element model we need to incorporate a mantle viscosity of about 3 1019 pa s the possibility that the seaward motion is caused by a silent slip event on the plate interface at large depths cannot be completely excluded and our analysis provides a working model for future field tests

postseismic deformation associated with the 1992 m ω 7 3 landers earthquake southern california following the 1992 m 7 3 landers earthquake a linear array of 10 geodetic monuments at roughly 5 km spacing was established across the emerson fault segment of the landers rupture the array trends perpendicular to the local strike of the fault segment and extends about 30 km on either side of it the array was surveyed by global positioning system 0 034 0 048 0 381 1 27 1 88 2 60 and 3 42 years after the landers earthquake to measure both the spatial and temporal character of the postearthquake relaxation the temporal behavior is described roughly by a short term decay time 84 23 days exponential relaxation superimposed upon an apparently linear trend because the linear trend represents motions much more rapid than the observed preseismic motions we attribute that trend to a slower decay time greater than 5 years postseismic relaxation the curvature of which cannot be resolved in the short run 3 4 years of postseismic data about 100 mm of right lateral displacement and 50 mm of fault normal displacement accumulated across the geodetic array in the 3 4 year interval covered by the postseismic surveys those displacements are attributed to postseismic right lateral slip in the depth interval 10 to 30 km on the downward extension of the rupture trace the right lateral slip amounted to about 1 m directly beneath the geodetic array and the fault normal displacement is apparently primarily a consequence of the curvature of the rupture these conclusions are based upon dislocation models fit to the observed deformation however no dislocation model was found with rms residuals as small as the expected observational error

earthquake nucleation on faults with rate and state dependent strength abstract dieterich j h 1992 earthquake nucleation on faults with rate and state dependent strength in t mikumo k aki m ohnaka l j ruff and p k p spudich editors earthquake source physics and earthquake precursors tectonophysics 211 115 134 faults with rate and state dependent constitutive properties reproduce a range of observed fault slip phenomena including spontaneous nucleation of slip instabilities at stresses above some critical stress level and recovery of strength following slip instability calculations with a plane strain fault model with spatially varying properties demonstrate that accelerating slip precedes instability and becomes localized to a fault patch the dimensions of the fault patch follow scaling relations for the minimum critical length for unstable fault slip the critical length is a function of normal stress loading conditions and constitutive parameters which include dc the characteristic slip distance if slip starts on a patch that exceeds the critical size the length of the rapidly accelerating zone tends to shrink to the characteristic size as the time of instability approaches solutions have been obtained for a uniform fixed patch model that are in good agreement with results from the plane strain model over a wide range of conditions above the steady state stress the logarithm of the time to instability linearly decreases as the initial stress increases because nucleation patch length and premonitory displacement are proportional to dc the moment of premonitory slip scales by d3c the scaling of dc is currently an open question unless dc for earthquake faults is significantly greater than that observed on laboratory faults premonitory strain arising from the nucleation process for earthquakes may by too small to detect using current observation methods excluding the possibility that dc in the nucleation zone controls the magnitude of the subsequent earthquake then the source dimensions of the smallest earthquakes in a region provide an upper limit for the size of the nucleation patch

preseismic deformation and coseismic displacements associated with the 1999 chi chi taiwan earthquake the destructive 1999 chi chi taiwan earthquake m w 7 5 produced an approximately 100 km long surface rupture mostly along the previously recognized north south trending chelungpu fault preseismic deformation in central taiwan is realized from annually repeated global positioning system gps data acquired during the 1992 1999 period the total wnw ese shortening rate in the vicinity of the epicentral region that is from the west coast to the western boundary of the central range is up to 25 mm yr the crustal deformation before the chi chi earthquake was essentially a uniaxial compressional strain of 0 36 strain yr in the direction of 114 the gps measurements taken 0 2 2 7 yr before and within 3 months after the mainshock were utilized to estimate the coseismic displacements horizontal movements of 1 1 9 1 m in the nw nnw directions are observed on the hanging wall eastern side of the fault there is a northward increasing trend in the magnitude of the displacement vectors and a dramatic change in the direction of about 50 toward the east along the fault strike in contrast much smaller se see movements of 0 1 1 5 m are found on the footwall western side of the fault the gps data show 2 4 10 1 m of total horizontal offsets across the chelungpu fault vertical offsets of 1 2 4 4 m with the eastern side up are also observed along the surface rupture the uplift on the hanging wall decreases rapidly toward the east it becomes subsidence at sun moon lake and in the puli wushe area the stations on the footwall show subsidence of 0 02 0 26 m the width of the uplift zone increases from about 10 km in the south to approximately 30 km in the north manuscript received 13 october 2000

estimates of source parameters for the 1999 chi chi taiwan earthquake based on brune s source model the general features of the rupture of the 1999 chi chi taiwan earthquake m s 7 6 can be explained by the displacement waveforms derived from the accelerograms recorded at short distances from the fault traces applying brune s model we have determined important source parameters such as rise time stress drop offset and particle velocity generally the earthquake is characterized as having had two distinct fault segments the southern segment dominated by thrust motion started from the focus on a fault plane raking at 78 and extended about 30 km to the north the northern segment dominated by thrust with significant strike slip motion began next to the end of the southern segment on a fault plane raking at 53 and extended northward for 25 km slips in the southern segment were followed by a small dislocation 1 m while those in the northern segment were followed by a much larger dislocation 9 m the average slip velocity was distributed at 34 49 cm sec along the southern segment and an unusual slip velocity exceeding 2 m sec was observed along the northern segment furthermore the southern segment experienced a rise time of 1 8 sec and a stress drop of 65 bars in contrast to a rise time longer than 4 sec and a stress drop larger than 300 bars registered to the north our results also indicate that along the southern segment the rupture propagated northward at an average velocity of 2 84 km sec but along the northern segment the rate declined to less than 2 km sec the difference in the source parameters between these two segments suggests that the rupturing associated with the chi chi earthquake may have encountered a resistive patch and changed course in the middle part of the fault after crushing that resistance the long rise time and high stress drop probably caused substantially slower motion and larger slip along the northern segment manuscript received 10 november 2000

fault geometry and slip distribution of the 1999 chi chi taiwan earthquake imaged from inversion of gps data gps measurements of coseismic displacements from the 1999 chi chi taiwan earthquake are modeled using elastic dislocation theory we find that a single fault plane cannot fit the data but rather a curved fault surface consisting of multiple segments dipping 20 25 best fits the observations the model fault exhibits reverse and left lateral slip on a 75 km long n s trending segment and reverse and right lateral slip on a 25 km e w trending segment at the northern end of the rupture the 21 dipping e w segment is inconsistent with previous interpretations of high angle tear faulting

time dependent triggered afterslip following the 1989 loma prieta earthquake we employ a modified version of the network inversion filter to investigate time dependent slip following the 1989 loma prieta earthquake previous analysis of global positioning system gps and leveling data suggests afterslip on the loma prieta rupture as well as aseismic slip on a thrust fault northeast of the san andreas fault which we identify with the foothills thrust belt we analyzed 173 daily gps solution files at 62 stations collected from 1989 8 to 1998 3 a total of 1 134 three dimensional relative baseline determinations the observed position changes are assumed to result from secular deformation random benchmark motions and temporally varying fault slip the data reveal temporal variations in slip rate but poorly resolve spatial variations in fault slip the amount of temporal smoothing is estimated by maximum likelihood conditional on this estimate reverse slip on the foothills thrust decays from 45 12 mm yr immediately after the earthquake to zero by 1992 reverse slip on the loma prieta rupture surface decays from 57 11 mm yr to zero by 1994 right lateral slip on the loma prieta rupture surface decays monotonically from 30 10 mm yr to zero by 1994 these results suggest that 1 triggered afterslip can occur off the main rupture zone on adjacent faults 2 shallow afterslip dominated the postseismic deformation for the 8 years following the earthquake and 3 postseismic slip on the foothills thrust may account for a significant portion of its total slip budget

postseismic relaxation and aftershocks 1 perfettini et al 2005 suggested that the temporal dependence of surface displacements u t measured in the epicentral area following an earthquake is related to n t the cumulative number of aftershocks by the equation u t a bt cn t d 1 e t where a b c d and are constants chosen to fit the data and t is the postearthquake time n t appears in the expression for u t because both the aftershocks and a portion of u t are thought to be driven by the same source postseismic fault creep at subseismogenic depths on the downdip extension of the coseismic rupture we show that this equation with the actually observed n t fits the postseismic displacements recorded on several baselines following each of five earthquakes 1999 m7 6 chi chi taiwan 1999 m7 1 hector mine southern california 2002 m7 9 denali central alaska 2003 m6 5 san simeon central california and 2004 m6 0 parkfield central california earthquakes although there are plausible physical interpretations for each of the terms in the expression for u t the large number of adjustable constants a b c d and involved in fitting the rather simple postseismic displacements diminishes the significance of the fit because the observed n t is well fit by the modified omori s law fault creep at depth presumably exhibits the same temporal dependence that dependence could be explained if the rheology of the fault downdip from the coseismic rupture is consistent with ordinary transient creep montesi 2004 demonstrated that power law creep across a shear zone at depth would also produce that temporal signal

elastodynamic analysis for slow tectonic loading with spontaneous rupture episodes on faults with rate and state dependent friction we present an efficient and rigorous numerical procedure for calculating the elastodynamic response of a fault subjected to slow tectonic loading processes of long duration within which there are episodes of rapid earthquake failure this is done for a general class of rate and state dependent friction laws with positive direct velocity effect the algorithm allows us to treat accurately within a single computational procedure loading intervals of thousands of years and to calculate for each earthquake episode initially aseismic accelerating slip prior to dynamic rupture the rupture propagation itself rapid post seismic deformation which follows and also ongoing creep slippage throughout the loading period in velocity strengthening fault regions the methodology is presented using the two dimensional 2 d antiplane spectral formulation and can be readily extended to the 2 d in plane and 3 d spectral formulations and with certain modifications to the space time boundary integral formulations as well as to their discretized development using finite difference or finite element methods the methodology can be used to address a number of important issues such as fault operation under low overall stress interaction of dynamic rupture propagation with pore pressure development patterns of rupture propagation in events nucleated naturally as a part of a sequence the earthquake nucleation process earthquake sequences on faults with heterogeneous frictional properties and or normal stress and others the procedure is illustrated for a 2 d crustal strike slip fault model with depth variable properties for lower values of the state evolution distance of the friction law small events appear the nucleation phases of the small and large events are very similar suggesting that the size of an event is determined by the conditions on the fault segments the event is propagating into rather than by the nucleation process itself we demonstrate the importance of incorporating slow tectonic loading with elastodynamics by evaluating two simplified approaches one with the slow tectonic loading but no wave effects and the other with all dynamic effects included but much higher loading rate

transient fault slip in guerrero southern mexico the guerrero region of southern mexico has ac cumulated more than 5 m of relative plate motion since the last major earthquake in early 1998 a continuous gps site in guerrero recorded a transient displacement modeling indicates that anomalous fault slip propagated from east to west along strike of the subduction megathrust campaign gps and leveling data corroborate the model the moment release was equivalent to an mw 6 5 earthquake no m 5 earthquakes accompanied the event indicating the frictional regime is velocity strengthening at the location of slip

earthquake aftereffects and triggered seismic phenomena the physical basis for delayed aftereffects of large crustal earthquakes is analyzed these effects apparently range in scale from typical aftershocks near the source region of a prior earthquake to the triggering of groundwater and deformation related anomalies possibly including other large earthquakes at locations as much as a few hundred kilometers from the source of a great earthquake observational reports of such aftereffects are reviewed and possible mechanisms for their occurrence are discussed

a constitutive law for rate of earthquake production and its application to earthquake clustering seismicity is modeled as a sequence of earthquake nucleation events in which the distribution of initial conditions over the population of nucleation sources and stress ing history control the timing of earthquakes the model is implemented using solutions for nucleation of unstable fault slip on faults with experimentally derived rate and state dependent fault properties this yields a general state variable constitutive formulation for rate of earthquake production resulting from an applied stressing history to illustrate and test the model some characteristics of seismicity following a stress step have been explored it is proposed that various features of earthquake clustering arise from sensi tivity of nucleation times to the stress changes induced by prior earthquakes the model gives the characteristic omori aftershock decay law and interprets aftershock parameters in terms of stress change and stressing rate earthquake data appear to support a model prediction that aftershock duration defined as the time for rates to return to the back ground seismicity rate is proportional to mainshock recurrence time observed spatial and temporal clustering of earthquake pairs arises as a consequence of the spatial depen dence of stress changes of the first event of the pair and stress sensitive time dependent nucleation applications of the constitutive formulation are not restricted to the simple stress step models investigated here it may be applied to stressing histories of arbitrary complexity the apparent success at modeling clustering phenomena suggests the possibil ity of using the formulation to estimate short to intermediate term earthquake probabil ities following occurrence of other earthquakes and for inversion of temporal variations of earthquake rates for changes in driving stress

magdalenian settlement on the edge of the loess island a case study from the northern foreland of the carpathians se poland abstract the subject of interdisciplinary studies was the magdalenian archaeological site and its vicinity situated in the se part of kolbuszowa plateau sandomierz basin se poland the results of geoarchaeological analysis were not limited only to the area of archaeological excavations but also include a wider background from palaeogeographical point of view very important was the geomorphical location of the camp on the periphery of unique loess island close to valley of san river tributary of vistula analyzed soil profiles with cultural layer very attractive for archaeologists represent facies of sandy silty deposits mainly formed by deluvial and aeolian processes active in the margin of a quite large morphologically diversified loess island the lower part of the studied sediments was deposited simultaneously with the youngest loesses which were accumulated in the close proximity the deposition of sandy silty deposits continued during late glacial and ended in younger dryas when in the adjacent loess zone there were formed stratified silty deposits of deluvial aeolian origin this spatial variability of deposits which were accumulated in a small area resulted undoubtedly from local conditions and favoured the development of different plant communities at the time when the camp was functioning geological research carried out in the kolbuszowa plateau provided an answer to the question about the time and conditions of the stay of magdalenian hunters this stay coincided with the period of stopped activity of aeolian slope processes and stabilization of ground surface by grass vegetation when the big meandering river functioned in the deepened valley place for the camp was undoubtedly selected on account of its geomorphological qualities location on the slope sheltered from westerly winds and with extensive view over the surrounding area at the confluence of two rivers according to presented data small groups of magdalenian hunters appeared on the loess island and in its immediate surroundings in the allerod advantages of this area were as follows geographical situation near the main migration route the proximity to the junction of ecological corridors diversified relief with good observation points and safe places for camp location access to water and diverse vegetation cover with forests as well as grass areas attracting the game finally despite the peripheral nature of settlement and generally poor traces of stay of the magdalenian groups in se poland both the features of lithic inventories and settlement strategies fit perfectly with the picture of the magdalenian complex in central europe

global omori law decay of triggered earthquakes large aftershocks outside the classical aftershock zone 1 triggered earthquakes can be large damaging and lethal as evidenced by the1999 shocks in turkey and the 2001 earthquakes in el salvador in this study earthquakes with ms 7 0 from the harvard centroid moment tensor cmt catalog are modeled as dislocations to calculate shear stress changes on subsequent earthquake rupture planes near enough to be affected about 61 of earthquakes that occurred near defined as having shear stress change 0 01 mpa the ms 7 0 shocks are associated with calculated shear stress increases while 39 are associated with shear stress decreases if earthquakes associated with calculated shear stress increases are interpreted as triggered then such events make up at least 8 of the cmt catalog globally these triggered earthquakes obey an omori law rate decay that lasts between 7 11 years after the main shock earthquakes associated with calculated shear stress increases occur at higher rates than background up to 240 km away from the main shock centroid omori s law is one of the few time predictable patterns evident in the global occurrence of earthquakes if large triggered earthquakes habitually obey omori s law then their hazard can be more readily assessed the characteristic rate change with time and spatial distribution can be used to rapidly assess the likelihood of triggered earthquakes following events of ms 7 0 i show an example application to the m 7 7 13 january 2001 el salvador earthquake where use of global statistics appears to provide a better rapid hazard estimate than coulomb stress change calculations

ductile creep compaction and rate and state dependent friction within major fault zones the shear traction on major strike slip faults during earthquakes is much lower than that expected on a frictionally sliding surface in equilibrium with hydrostatic pressure the low shear traction is explained if the fluid pressure at the time of the earthquake is much greater than hydrostatic pressure ductile creep within mostly sealed fault zones compacts the matrix and thus increases fluid pressure between earthquakes frictional dilatancy during earthquakes decreases fluid pressure below hydrostatic and over the earthquake cycle the fault zone is in long term equilibrium with the country rock this ductile mechanism is formally unified with rate and state theory for time dependent friction when the difference between a critical porosity where the rock loses all strength and the actual porosity of cracks is used as a state variable this choice is justified by percolation theory of mostly broken lattices time dependent behavior associated with changes in normal traction in the laboratory is explained by the formalism instability earthquakes sometimes occurs in the numerical experiments however fairly small amounts of frictional dilatancy during initial frictional creep decrease fluid pressure and preclude unstable sliding two coupled mechanisms for producing dilatancy on faults once an instability is well underway are evident 1 expansion of pore fluids associated with frictional heating increases fluid pressure offsetting the effects of increased pore volume during earthquakes there is some tendency for pore volume increase to balance fluid expansion so that fluid pressure stays relatively constant 2 production of isolated voids that do not immediately decrease fluid pressure throughout the fault zone during earthquakes can occur to the extent that the fault zone is not significantly strengthened although the extent of both processes is constrained by energy considerations the variation of fluid pressure during earthquakes is not yet well enough understood to predict stress drop from observable material properties

postseismic pressure solution creep evidence and time dependent change from dynamic indenting experiments active faults in the earth s upper crust can slide either steadily by aseismic creep or abruptly causing earthquakes seismic and aseismic processes are closely related earthquakes are often followed by transient afterslip creep postseismic displacement rates progressively decrease with time over a period of years or decades so seismic fracturing activates the creep rate and various healing processes progressively reduce it this article presents pressure solution indenter experiments on halite calcite and plaster that show how fracturing and comminution processes induced by dynamic stress loading applied by dropping steel balls drastically accelerate the displacement rates accommodated by pressure solution creep by decreasing the dissolution contact area and the diffusive mass transfer distance along this contact however as fractures progressively heal and dissolution contacts flatten these effects disappear and the displacement rates slow down the time dependent change in indenter displacement after dynamic stress loading has been measured and is best fitted by power laws with exponents that change with time from 0 3 to 1 when healing is achieved natural postseismic afterslip displacement time relationships have been analyzed and also show a power law change with a power law exponent in the range of 0 25 0 4 it is proposed that the variation in power law exponent with time is related to the change in morphology of the dissolution contact that is fractured or comminuted during the dynamic event and is then progressively healed and smoothed in natural faults monitoring the power law parameters could give access to the characteristic healing time in the fault

postseismic response of repeating aftershocks the recurrence intervals of repeating earthquakes on the san andreas fault in the loma prieta aftershock zone follow the characteristic 1 t decay of omori s law a model in which these earthquakes occur on isolated patches of the fault that fail in stick slip with creep around them can explain this observation in this model the recurrence interval is inversely proportional to the loading rate due to creep logarithmic velocity strengthening friction predicts 1 t decay in creep rate following the mainshock the time dependence of recurrence is inconsistent with a simple viscous constitutive relationship which predicts an exponential decay of loading rate thus our observations imply postseismic slip at seismogenic depth under a power law rheology the time dependence of postseismic deformation measured geodetically may be diagnostic of whether postseismic deformation is caused by creep or possible viscoelastic deformation at greater depths

a silent slip event on the deeper cascadia subduction interface continuous global positioning system sites in southwestern british columbia canada and northwestern washington state usa have been moving landward as a result of the locked state of the cascadia subduction fault offshore in the summer of 1999 a cluster of seven sites briefly reversed their direction of motion no seismicity was associated with this event the sudden displacements are best explained by 2 centimeters of aseismic slip over a 50 kilometer by 300 kilometer area on the subduction interface downdip from the seismogenic zone a rupture equivalent to an earthquake of moment magnitude 6 7 this provides evidence that slip of the hotter plastic part of the subduction interface and hence stress loading of the megathrust earthquake zone can occur in discrete pulses

slip kinematics and dynamics during and after the 1995 october 9 mw 8 0 colima jalisco earthquake mexico from gps geodetic constraints we use horizontal and vertical crustal displacements derived from gps measurements at 26 sites in western mexico to study the coseismic and post seismic kinematics and dynamics of the 1995 october 9 m w 8 0 colima jalisco earthquake along the middle america trench the measurements bracket the entire landward edge of the approximately 150 km long rupture zone and span a 4 yr period for most sites we solve for the temporal evolution of slip along the subduction interface by inverting gps displacements for the coseismic and four post seismic intervals march 1995 march 1999 subject to the assumption that the crust responds elastically to slip along a shallow dipping curved subduction interface coseismic rupture of up to 5 m was largely focused above depths of 20 km and was limited to a 120 140 km long segment of the subduction zone within one week of the earthquake post seismic slip migrated downdip to depths of 16 35 km where it has since decayed logarithmically we also find evidence for shallow aseismic slip during 1996 or early 1997 northwest of the coseismic rupture zone and increasingly widespread relocking of shallow regions of the subduction interface after early 1997 the relative lack of afterslip in shallow regions of the subduction interface suggests that the interface lies in the unstable frictional regime and hence is strongly coupled between earthquakes by 1999 the cumulative slip moment associated with post seismic slip equaled 70 per cent of the coseismic moment with nearly all of this slip occurring downdip from the coseismic rupture zone the migration of slip after the earthquake to a deeper and presumably velocity strengthening area of the subduction interface and the logarithmic decay of afterslip conform to the qualitative and quantitative predictions of a model in which the fault kinematics are prescribed by rate and state variable frictional laws however misfits to the geodetic displacements exceed the average displacement uncertainties for all epochs implying one or more of the following 1 the elastic response is heterogeneous due to slip along unmodelled upper crustal faults or variations in the elastic properties of the crust 2 other post seismic mechanisms such as viscoelastic or poroelastic effects contribute to or possibly dominate the post seismic response 3 we have underestimated the uncertainties in the gps displacements