analyzing earthquake clustering features by using stochastic reconstruction 1 on the basis of the epidemic type aftershock sequence etas model and the thinning procedure this paper gives the method about how to classify the earthquakes in a given catalogue into different clusters stochastically the key points of this method are the probabilities of one event being triggered by another previous event and being a background event making use of these probabilities we can reconstruct the functions associated with the characteristics of earthquake clusters to test a number of important hypotheses about the earthquake clustering phenomena we applied this reconstruction method to the shallow seismic data in japan and also to a simulated catalogue the results show the following assertions 1 the functions for each component in the formulation of the space time etas model are good enough as a first order approximation for describing earthquake clusters 2 a background event triggers less offspring in expectation than a triggered event of the same magnitude 3 the magnitude distribution of the triggered event depends on the magnitude of its direct ancestor 4 the diffusion of the aftershock sequence is mainly caused by cascades of individual triggering processes while no evidence shows that each individual triggering process is diffusive and 5 the scale of the triggering region is still an exponential law as formulated in the model but not the same one for the expected number of offspring

numerical simulation of seismic cycles with a composite rate and state dependent friction law properties of rate and state dependent friction laws are examined through numerical simulations among several versions of the rate and state dependent friction laws we use the slowness law the slip law and the composite law the last was recently proposed by kato and tullis 2001 for better explaining experimental observations of rock friction in the laboratory two kinds of simulations are done one is for cyclic stick slip motion of a single degree of freedom spring block system the other is for seismic cycles at a subduction zone where a 2d model of uniform elastic half space is used assuming the same values of friction parameters we compare the simulation results for the three friction laws from the two kinds of simulations we find that the recurrence interval of simulated earthquakes is the longest and the magnitude of preseismic sliding is the smallest for the composite law

importance of small earthquakes for stress transfers and earthquake triggering 1 we estimate the relative importance of small and large earthquakes for static stress changes and for earthquake triggering assuming that earthquakes are triggered by static stress changes and that earthquakes are located on a fractal network of dimension d this model predicts that both the number of events triggered by an earthquake of magnitude m and the stress change induced by this earthquake at the location of other earthquakes increase with m as similar to 10 dm 2 the stronger the spatial clustering the larger the influence of small earthquakes on stress changes at the location of a future event as well as earthquake triggering if earthquake magnitudes follow the gutenberg richter law with b d 2 small earthquakes collectively dominate stress transfer and earthquake triggering because their greater frequency overcomes their smaller individual triggering potential using a southern california catalog we observe that the rate of seismicity triggered by an earthquake of magnitude m increases with m as 10 alpha m where alpha 1 05 0 05 we also find that the magnitude distribution of triggered earthquakes is independent of the triggering earthquake s magnitude m when alpha approximate to b small earthquakes are roughly as important to earthquake triggering as larger ones we evaluate the fractal correlation dimension d of hypocenters using two relocated catalogs for southern california the value of d measured for distances 0 1 r 5 km is d 1 54 for the shearer et al catalog and d 1 73 for the hauksson et al catalog the value of d reflects both the structure of the fault network and the nature of earthquake interactions by considering only those earthquake pairs with interevent times larger than 1000 days we can largely remove the effects of short term clustering then d approximate to 2 close to the value d 2 alpha 2 1 predicted by assuming that earthquake triggering is due to static stress the value d approximate to 2b implies that small earthquakes are as important as larger ones for stress transfers between earthquakes and that considering stress changes induced by small earthquakes should improve models of earthquake interactions

a revised tsunami source model for the 1707 hoei earthquake and simulation of tsunami inundation of ryujin lake kyushu japan 1 based on many recent findings such as those for geodetic data from japan s geonet nationwide gps network and geological investigations of a tsunami inundated ryujin lake in kyushu we present a revised source rupture model for the great 1707 hoei earthquake that occurred in the nankai trough off southwestern japan the source rupture area of the new hoei earthquake source model extends further to the hyuga nada more than 70 km beyond the currently accepted location at the westernmost end of shikoku numerical simulation of the tsunami using a new source rupture model for the hoei earthquake explains the distribution of the very high tsunami observed along the pacific coast from western shikoku to kyushu more consistently a simulation of the tsunami runup into ryujin lake using the onshore tsunami estimated by the new model demonstrates a tsunami inundation process inflow and outflow speeds affect transport and deposition of sand in the lake and around the channel connecting it to the sea tsunamis from the 684 tenmu 1361 shokei and 1707 hoei earthquakes deposited sand in ryujin lake and around the channel connecting it to the sea but lesser tsunamis from other earthquakes were unable to reach ryujin lake this irregular behavior suggests that in addition to the regular nankai trough earthquake cycle of 100 150 years there is a hyperearthquake cycle of 300 500 years these greater earthquakes produce the largest tsunamis from western shikoku to kyushu

earthquake clusters in southern california i identification and stability 1 we use recent results on statistical analysis of seismicity to present a robust method for comprehensive detection and analysis of earthquake clusters the method is based on nearest neighbor distances of events in space time energy domain the method is applied to a 1981 2011 relocated seismicity catalog of southern california having 111 981 events with magnitudes m 2 and corresponding synthetic catalogs produced by the epidemic type aftershock sequence etas model analysis of the etas model demonstrates that the cluster detection results are accurate and stable with respect to 1 three numerical parameters of the method 2 variations of the minimal reported magnitude 3 catalog incompleteness and 4 location errors application of the method to the observed catalog separates the 111 981 examined earthquakes into 41 393 statistically significant clusters comprised of foreshocks mainshocks and aftershocks the results reproduce the essential known statistical properties of earthquake clusters which provide overall support for the proposed technique in addition systematic analysis with our method allows us to detect several new features of seismicity that include 1 existence of a significant population of single event clusters 2 existence of foreshock activity in natural seismicity that exceeds expectation based on the etas model and 3 dependence of all cluster properties except area on the magnitude difference of events from mainshocks but not on their absolute values the classification of detected clusters into several major types generally corresponding to singles burst like and swarm like sequences and correlations between different cluster types and geographic locations is addressed in a companion paper

a composite rate and state dependent law for rock friction existing constitutive laws of rock friction cannot describe both observed strengthening in the absence of slip and frictional behavior around steady state sliding combining existing rate and state dependent friction laws we propose a new friction law which expresses logarithmically time dependent healing at sliding velocities smaller than a cut off velocity v c and approaches the so called slip law at velocities larger than v c numerical simulations show that the new friction law adequately explains experimental results of velocity stepping tests and slide hold slide tests which have widely been used to examine velocity time and displacement dependent property of rock friction because the new friction law has a simple form and appears appropriate for a wide range of conditions it is useful for application to numerical modeling of seismic cycles

space time etas models and an improved extension for sensitive detection of anomalous seismicity such as quiescence and activation in a given region we need a suitable statistical reference model that represents a normal seismic activity in the region the regional occurrence rate of the earthquakes is modeled as a function of previous activity the specific form of which is based on empirical laws in time and space such as the modified omori formula and the utsu seki scaling law of aftershock area against magnitude respectively this manuscript summarizes the development of the epidemic type aftershock sequence etas model and proposes an extended version of the best fitted space time model that was suggested in ogata ogata y 1998 space time point process models for earthquake occurrences ann inst statist math 50 379 402 this model indicates significantly better fit to seismicity in various regions in and around japan d 2005 elsevier b v all rights reserved

a study on the background and clustering seismicity in the taiwan region by using point process models 1 this paper investigates the shallow seismicity occurring in the taiwan region during the 20th century using a stochastic declustering method that has been developed on the basis of the theory of the epidemic type aftershock sequence model it provides a probability based tool to objectively separate the space time occurrences of earthquakes into a background and a clustering component on the basis of the background and clustering seismicity rates we discuss the correlation between the distribution of the cluster ratio and the regional seismotectonic structures specifically we find that the areas of the highest clustering ratio correspond to the major strike slip fault traces in and around taiwan additionally in the taiwan inland region during the period 1960 1990 the outputs for the stochastically declustered catalogue show a clear quiescence in background seismicity preceding the recovery of activation and the occurrences of the 1999 chi chi earthquake of ml7 3 while the other active regions show stationary background activity this could be interpreted as an effect of the aseismic slip in the chi chi rupture fault whereby the inland region around the chi chi source becomes a stress shadow

mid to late holocene marine inundations inferred from coastal deposits facing the nankai trough in nankoku kochi prefecture southern japan this study investigates the holocene sedimentary history of a small coastal lowland in nankoku kochi prefecture on the coast of southern japan facing the nankai trough the sedimentary fill of th

comparing foreshock characteristics and foreshock forecasting in observed and simulated earthquake catalogs in this paper we compare the empirical results regarding foreshocks obtained from the japan data with results for synthetic catalogs in order to clarify whether or not the corresponding results are consistent with the description of the seismicity by a superposition of background activity and epidemic type aftershock sequence etas models this question is important because it is still controversially discussed whether the nucleation process of large earthquakes is driven by seismically cascading etas type or by aseismic accelerating processes to explore the foreshock characteristics we first applied the same clustering algorithms to real and synthetic catalogs and analyzed the temporal spatial and magnitude distributions of the selected foreshocks most properties are qualitatively the same in the real data and in synthetic catalogs however we find some quantitative differences particularly in the temporal acceleration spatial convergence and magnitude dependence which also depend on the assumed synthetic catalogs furthermore we calculated forecast scores based on a single link cluster algorithm which could be appropriate for real time applications we find that the japan meteorological agency catalog yields higher scores than all synthetic catalogs and that the etas models having the same magnitude sequence as the original catalog performs better more close to the reality than etas models with randomly picked magnitudes we also find that the etas model that takes account of the triggering effect by small earthquakes below threshold magnitude performs more closely to the reality

time distribution of immediate foreshocks obtained by a stacking method we apply a stacking method to investigate the time distribution of foreshock activity immediately before a mainshock the foreshocks are searched for events with m 3 0 within a distance of 50 km and two days from each mainshock with m 5 0 in the jma catalog from 1977 through 1997 9 30 about 33 of m 5 0 earthquakes are preceded by foreshocks and 50 70 in some areas the relative location and time of three types of representative foreshocks that is the largest one the nearest one to the mainshock in distance and the nearest one in time are stacked in reference to each mainshock the statistical test for stacked time distribution of foreshocks within 30km from and two days before mainshocks shows that the inverse power law type of a probability density time function is a significantly better fit than the exponential one for all three types of representative foreshocks two explanations possibly interpret the results one is that foreshocks occur as a result of a stress change in the region and the other one is that a foreshock is the cause of a stress change in the region and it triggers a mainshock the second explanation is compatible with the relationship between a mainshock and aftershocks when an aftershock happens to become larger than the mainshock however the values of exponent of the power law obtained for stacked foreshocks are significantly smaller than those for similarly stacked aftershocks therefore the foreshock mainshock relation should not be explained as a normal aftershock activity probably an increase of stress during foreshock activity results in apparently smaller values of the exponent if the second explanation is the case

revision of magnitudes of large shallow earthquakes 1897 1912 abstract in previous research trace amplitudes of surface wave maxima recorded by undamped milne seismographs were used to determine the surface wave magnitudes ms of large shallow earthquakes which occurred prior to 1912 for this purpose the effective gain of these instruments was calibrated by using the surface wave magnitudes ms gr which were calculated from the unpublished worksheets for seismicity of the earth of gutenberg and richter in this paper the real quality of ms gr is critically re evaluated by using independent sets of data it is found that ms gr for the period 1904 1909 is considerably overestimated the average excess from the real ms is 0 5 units for 1904 1906 0 4 for 1907 0 3 for 1908 1909 and 0 0 for 1910 1912 this overestimation is so systematic and large that the previous results are all redetermined the average effective gain of milne instruments is revised to be 21 9 previously the gain depended on ms this revision results in systematic reduction in the previously assigned magnitudes the revised values of ms for 264 shallow earthquakes with ms 6 8 and over in the period 1897 1912 inclusive are listed the present revision is large enough to preclude the possibility of the high activity of large shallow earthquakes around the turn of the century the present results have a direct effect on all the magnitude catalogues of shallow earthquakes which occurred prior to 1909

a cause of rupture segmentation and synchronization in the nankai trough revealed by seismic imaging and numerical simulation 1 a giant earthquake occasionally occurs in a subduction zone owing to a simultaneous rupture in adjacent segments which have been previously ruptured by large earthquakes however it is still unknown if a giant earthquake coincidentally occurs or if there is a causal factor to control its generation in this study we show a cause and a growth process of a giant earthquake which may occur along southwestern japan on the basis of seismic images obtained from wide angle seismic data and a numerical simulation incorporating the structural images the wide angle seismic data were acquired along three trough parallel profiles crossing the rupture segmentation boundary between the 1944 tonankai moment magnitude mw 8 1 and the 1946 nankai mw 8 4 earthquakes the seismic imaging detected a high seismic velocity body forming a strongly coupled patch at the segmentation boundary the numerical simulation explained the historic rupture patterns and shows the occurrence of a giant earthquake along the entire nankai trough a distance of over 600 km long mw 8 7 the growth process revealed from the simulated slip history in and around the strongly coupled patch is 1 prior to the giant earthquake a small slow event or earthquake occurs near the segmentation boundary 2 this accelerates a very slow slip slower than the plate convergent rate at the strong patch which reduces a degree of coupling and 3 then a rupture easily propagates through the strong patch when the next earthquake is nucleated near the segmentation boundary consequently growing into a giant earthquake

the foreshock sequence of haicheng earthquake and earthquake swarm the use of foreshock sequences in earthquake prediction abstract we have compared the haicheng foreshock sequence with several earthquake swarms which occurred in its neighborhood the spatial distribution of the earthquakes is relatively concentrated for the most part the events occurred within a few kilometers of each other the focal mechanisms are comparatively stable however there are several swarms in which the variations of focal mechanisms are quite obvious after the occurrence of the largest event of the sequence which would allow it to be recognized as a swarm however there are also swarms whose focal mechanisms are no less stable throughout the sequence compared to the haicheng foreshock sequence this feature could thus not be used to identify a foreshock sequence the temporal distributions of foreshocks and swarms are quite similar in some cases this is again not a definite criterion for identifying foreshocks but is worthy of further study thus no definite criterion for identifying foreshock sequences has been found however some earthquake swarms may be recognized in their later stage finally we introduced a magnitude sequence with gaps which can be used to see whether a large event is still forthcoming this method in conjunction with other methods could be used in areas prone to large earthquakes immediately before a large event to improve the probability of predicting the occurrence of a large event we also report that the temporal distribution of all the sequences showed a 12 hour recurrence pattern that corresponded with the earth tides indicating that tidal forces might be influencing foreshocks and earthquake swarm occurrence

prediction probabilities from foreshocks when any earthquake occurs the possibility that it might be a foreshock increases the probability that a larger earthquake will occur nearby within the next few days clearly the probability of a very large earthquake ought to be higher if the candidate foreshock were on or near a fault capable of producing that very large mainshock especially if the fault is towards the end of its seismic cycle we derive an expression for the probability of a major earthquake characteristic to a particular fault segment given the occurrence of a potential foreshock near the fault to evaluate this expression we need 1 the rate of background seismic activity in the area 2 the long term probability of a large earthquake on the fault and 3 the rate at which foreshocks precede large earthquakes as a function of time magnitude and spatial location for this last function we assume the average properties of foreshocks to moderate earthquakes in california 1 the rate of mainshock occurrence after foreshocks decays roughly as t 1 so that most foreshocks are within three days of their mainshock 2 foreshocks and mainshocks occur within 10 km of each other and 3 the fraction of mainshocks with foreshocks increases linearly as the magnitude threshold for foreshocks decreases with 50 of the mainshocks having foreshocks with magnitudes within three units of the mainshock magnitude within three days we apply our results to the san andreas hayward san jacinto and imperial faults using the probabilities of large earthquakes from the report of the working group on california earthquake probabilities 1988 the magnitude of candidate event required to produce a 1 probability of a large earthquake on the san andreas fault within three days ranges from a high of 5 3 for the segment in san gorgonio pass to a low of 3 6 for the carrizo plain

the long precursory phase of most large interplate earthquakes many earthquakes are preceded by foreshocks however the mechanisms that generate foreshocks and the reason why they occur before some earthquakes and not others are unknown here we use seismic catalogues from the best instrumented areas of the north pacific to analyse the foreshock sequences preceding all earthquakes there between 1999 and 2011 of magnitude larger than 6 5 and at depths shallower than 50 km the data set comprises 31 earthquakes at plate boundaries and 31 in plate interiors we find that there is a remarkable contrast between the foreshock sequences of interplate compared with intraplate earthquakes most large earthquakes at plate interfaces in the north pacific were preceded by accelerating seismic activity in the months to days leading up to the mainshock in contrast foreshocks are much less frequent in intraplate settings we suggest that at plate boundaries the interface between the two plates begins to slowly slip before the interface ruptures in a large earthquake this relatively long precursory phase could help mitigate earthquake risk at plate boundaries

detection of anomalous seismicity as a stress change sensor 1 anomalous seismicity such as quiescence and activation is defined by a systematic deviation of seismic activity from the predicted rate by the epidemic type aftershock sequence etas model that represents the normal occurrence rate of earthquakes in a region indicating the empirical triggering effect by the previous events the model is fitted to a data set of origin times and magnitudes of earthquakes or aftershocks during may august 2003 in and around northern japan the detected quiescence and activation relative to the predicted seismicity rate are consistent with the coseismic changes of coulomb failure stress cfs in the corresponding regions transferred from certain strong earthquakes few results in this paper agree with the claim that there should be a threshold value of cfs capable of affecting seismic changes thus we expect that significant deviation of actual activity from the predicted rates is sensitive enough to detect a slight stress change furthermore i offer a similar interpretation of the detected seismicity lowering relative to the modeled rates preceding the strong earthquakes assuming some aseismic slips

statistics between mainshocks and foreshocks in italy and southern california 1 the most used and accepted models for daily forecasts are based on short term space and time earthquake clustering for occurrence rates and on the gutenberg richter law for the frequency magnitude these models have been demonstrated to produce reliable prospective space time magnitude forecasts during an aftershock sequence but their skill in forecasting mainshocks is still under discussion this paper studies the foreshock statistics of the italian and californian seismicity in two ways i we compare the foreshock activity observed in real seismic catalogs and in synthetic catalogs derived from a pure epidemic type aftershock sequence etas model ii we analyze the triggering capability of earthquakes using different etas parameterizations in order to check whether large events are triggered in the same way as regular earthquakes the results indicate that the foreshock activity observed in the real catalogs is compatible with what is expected by the etas model moreover we find that the empirical foreshock rates have an intrinsic variability due to limited sampling that may explain most of the differences found so far in different seismic catalogs

the 2011 tohoku oki earthquake displacement reaching the trench axis we detected and measured coseismic displacement caused by the 11 march 2011 tohoku oki earthquake moment magnitude mw 9 0 by using multibeam bathymetric surveys the difference between bathymetric data acquired before and after the earthquake revealed that the displacement extended out to the axis of the japan trench suggesting that the fault rupture reached the trench axis the sea floor on the outermost landward area moved about 50 meters horizontally east southeast and 10 meters upward the large horizontal displacement lifted the sea floor by up to 16 meters on the landward slope in addition to the vertical displacement

constraints on the size of the smallest triggering earthquake from the epidemic type aftershock sequence model bath s law and observed aftershock sequences 1 the physics of earthquake triggering together with simple assumptions of self similarity imply the existence of a minimum magnitude m0 below which earthquakes do not trigger other earthquakes noting that the magnitude md of completeness of a seismic catalog is not in general the same as the magnitude m0 of the smallest triggering earthquake we compare observed aftershock sequence parameters with the predictions made by the epidemic type aftershock sequence model to constrain the value of m0 in particular we use quantitative fits to observed aftershock sequences from three previous studies as well as bath s law to obtain four estimates of m0 we show that the branching ratio n average number of triggered earthquakes per earthquake also equal to the fraction of aftershocks in a seismic catalog is the key parameter controlling the estimate of the minimum triggering magnitude m0 conversely physical upper bounds for m0 estimated from rate and state friction indicate that at the very least 55 of all earthquakes are aftershocks

quantitative relationship between aseismic slip propagation speed and frictional properties recent observations show evidence of propagation of postseismic slip which may contain information about the mechanical properties of faults here we develop a new analytical relationship between the propagation speed of aseismic slip transients and fault frictional properties modeled by a rate and state dependent friction law the relationship explains the propagation speed of afterslip in 3 d numerical simulations to first order based on this relationship we identify systematic dependencies of afterslip propagation speed on effective normal stress and frictional properties the coefficients a and a b which quantify the instantaneous and the steady state velocity dependence of friction respectively and the characteristic slip distance l of fault state evolution lower values of the parameter a a cause faster propagation in areas where the passage of the postseismic slip front induces large shear stress changes compared to a which are typically located near the mainshock rupture in areas where a is small typically more distant from the mainshock afterslip propagation speed is more sensitive to a b the propagation speed is proportional to initial slip velocity and under the condition that loading span is significantly shorter than the passage of postseismic slip inversely proportional to l the relationship developed here should be useful to constrain the frictional properties of faults based on observed propagation speeds independently of rock laboratory experiments which can then be used in predictive numerical simulations of aseismic slip phenomena

space time model for regional seismicity and detection of crustal stress changes 1 the regional occurrence rate of earthquakes is modeled as a function of previous activity the specific form of which is based on empirical laws in time and space such as the modified omori formula and the utsu seki scaling law of aftershock area against magnitude respectively its parameters including the p value of the aftershock decay rate vary from place to place in such a way that for example the regional p value at the locations around the main shock is similar to the one estimated from the corresponding individual aftershock sequence the estimated space time model is used to visualize features of the regional seismic activity the utility is demonstrated by applying the model to the events of m 5 in and around japan for the period 1926 1995 among the parameters of the model this paper is particularly concerned with the normalized k value of the modified omori function indicating the aftershock productivity this takes high values around the boundaries of asperities that are estimated in the wide area off the east coast of tohoku district japan by the inversion of historical strong motion seismograms furthermore this space time model enables us to identify the anomalous period and regions where the actual occurrence rates deviate systematically from the modeled one such an anomaly activation and quiescence relative to the model could sensitively reveal the change of stresses in the regions we attempt to relate this relative activation and lowering of the seismicity to the pattern of coulomb stress changes due to a rupture or silent slip elsewhere for example such anomalies seen in the seismic activity in the central japan m 2 5 during 1995 1999 and during 2001 are respectively likely the consequence of the coulomb stress changes due to the 1995 kobe rupture and the interplate aseismic slip during 2001 beneath the western tokai region

seismic slip propagation to the updip end of plate boundary subduction interface faults vitrinite reflectance geothermometry on integrated ocean drilling program nantro seize cores seismic faulting along subduction type plate boundaries plays a fundamental role in tsunami genesis during the integrated ocean drilling program iodp nankai trough seismogenic zone experiment nantro seize stage 1 the updip ends of plate boundary subduction faults were drilled and cored in the nankai trough offshore japan where repeated large earthquakes and tsunamis have occurred including the a d 1944 tonankai mw 8 1 earthquake samples were obtained from the frontal thrust which connects the deep plate boundary to the seafloor at the toe of the accretionary wedge and from a megasplay fault that branches from the plate boundary decollement the toe of the accretionary wedge has classically been considered aseismic but vitrinite reflectance geothermometry reveals that the two examined fault zones underwent localized temperatures of more than 380 c this suggests that frictional heating occurred along these two fault zones and implies that coseismic slip must have propagated at least one time to the updip end of the megasplay fault and to the toe of the accretionary wedge

3 d simulation of tectonic loading at convergent plate boundary zones internal stress fields in northeast japan the evidence of east west compression in northeast japan has been reported by many investigators on the basis of geodetic geologic and geomorphic data but its origin still remains far from understood in the present study we have proposed a mechanical model of tectonic loading at convergent plate boundary zones and demonstrated its validity through the numerical simulation of internal stress fields in northeast japan with realistic 3 d geometry of plate interfaces at convergent plate boundary zones in general a part of plate convergence is consumed by steady slip along plate interfaces and the remaining part by inelastic deformation seismic faulting aseismic faulting and active folding of overriding plates such a plate boundary process to be called partial collision can be quantitatively described by introducing a collision rate defined as c 1 steady slip rate at plate interfaces plate convergence rate by this definition we can simply represent the mechanical process of partial collision which includes total subduction c 0 and total collision c 1 as two extreme cases in terms of steady slip rates at plate interfaces on the basis of elastic dislocation theory first we numerically computed the internal stress fields in northeast japan produced by the total subduction of the pacific plate beneath the north american plate however the computed stress pattern was opposite in sense to observations then we computed the internal stress fields by taking c 0 1 on average and succeeded in reproducing the observed east west compression in northeast japan this indicates that the concept of partial collision is essential to understand the mechanism of intraplate tectonic loading

stable creeping fault segments can become destructive as a result of dynamic weakening faults in earth s crust accommodate slow relative motion between tectonic plates through either similarly slow slip or fast seismic wave producing rupture events perceived as earthquakes these types of behaviour are often assumed to be separated in space and to occur on two different types of fault segment one with stable rate strengthening friction and the other with rate weakening friction that leads to stick slip the 2011 tohoku oki earthquake with moment magnitude m w 9 0 challenged such assumptions by accumulating its largest seismic slip in the area that had been assumed to be creeping here we propose a model in which stable rate strengthening behaviour at low slip rates is combined with coseismic weakening due to rapid shear heating of pore fluids allowing unstable slip to occur in segments that can creep between events the model parameters are based on laboratory measurements on samples from the fault of the m w 7 6 1999 chi chi earthquake the long term slip behaviour of the model which we examine using a unique numerical approach that includes all wave effects reproduces and explains a number of both long term and coseismic observations some of them seemingly contradictory about the faults at which the tohoku oki and chi chi earthquakes occurred including there being more high frequency radiation from areas of lower slip the largest seismic slip in the tohoku oki earthquake having occurred in a potentially creeping segment the overall pattern of previous events in the area and the complexity of the tohoku oki rupture the implication that earthquake rupture may break through large portions of creeping segments which are at present considered to be barriers requires a re evaluation of seismic hazard in many areas

statistical model for standard seismicity and detection of anomalies by residual analysis abstract a statistical point process model is derived to describe the standard activity of earthquake occurrences by assuming that general seismicity is given by the superposition of aftershock sequences the parameters are estimated ty the maximum likelihood method using the estimated model the residual point process of the data is defined and used to find the anomalies which are included in the data set but not captured in the considered model for the standard seismicity for instance seismic quiescences can be measured quantitatively by using the residual process some examples are provided to illustrate such analyses furthermore a time series of the magnitudes on the residual point process is considered to investigate its dependence either on the time or on the history of the seismicity by assuming the exponential distribution at each time and modelling of the b value we can examine such dependences and estimate them two practical examples are shown

foreshocks and time dependent earthquake hazard assessment in southern california the probability that an earthquake in southern california m 3 0 will be followed by an earthquake of larger magnitude within 5 days and 10 km i e will be a foreshock is 6 0 5 per cent 1 s d and is not significantly dependent on the magnitude of the possible foreshock between m 3 and m 5 the probability that an earthquake will be followed by an m 5 0 main shock however increases with magnitude of the foreshock from less than 1 per cent at m 3 to 6 5 2 5 per cent 1 s d at m 5 the main shock will most likely occur in the first hour after the foreshock and the probability that a main shock will occur decreases with elapsed time from the occurrence of the possible foreshock by approximately the inverse of time thus the occurrence of an earthquake of m 3 0 in southern california increases the earthquake hazard within a small space time window several orders of magnitude above the normal background level

re examination of possible great interplate earthquake scenarios in the nankai trough southwest japan based on recent findings and numerical simulations abstract great earthquakes have occurred repeatedly along the nankai trough in southwestern japan with recurrence intervals of 100 200 years the magnitudes of nankai earthquakes have historically varied with many studies to date asserting that an event s magnitude is controlled only by the number of broken segments arranged along the trough recent evidence suggests that large tsunami with recurrence intervals of several hundred years have occurred along the nankai trough therefore it is now essential to reconsider the scenario of the nankai earthquakes including the possibility of seismic slip on the shallow subduction interface recently model calculations of interplate seismic cycles have been conducted using rate and state dependent friction in these calculations assuming heterogeneous distribution of fracture energy in the seismogenic zone and its shallower extension both massive earthquakes with slips up to the trough and ordinary earthquakes in the seismogenic zone can occur here we apply a heterogeneous distribution of fracture energy in the shallow plate interface of the nankai trough in the model we represent the difference in fracture energy by the difference in the characteristic slip distance l to model the conventional seismogenic zone as a zone of low fracture energy we set l to be 5 cm at depths of 10 20 km conversely the shallow plate boundary near the trough is modeled as a zone of high fracture energy by setting l to 5 m as a result two types of earthquake with different moment magnitude occur alternately the recurrence interval of the larger type is about 370 years which is comparable to the recurrence of larger tsunami deduced from geological findings large coseismic slip extends to the trough during the larger types in contrast the smaller one whose seismic slip is distributed along the seismogenic zone occurs after 200 years of the larger one

seismicity on a fault controlled by rate and state dependent friction with spatial variations of the critical slip distance 1 we perform systematic simulations of slip using a quasi dynamic continuum model of a two dimensional 2 d strike slip fault governed by rate and state dependent friction the depth dependence of the a b and l frictional parameters are treated in an innovative way that is consistent with available laboratory data and multidisciplinary field observations various realizations of heterogeneous l distributions are used to study effects of structural variations of fault zones on spatiotemporal evolution of slip we demonstrate that such realizations can produce within the continuum class of models realistic features of seismicity and slip distributions on a fault we explore effects of three types of variable l distributions 1 a depth dependent l profile accounting for the variable width of fault zones with depth 2 uncorrelated 2 d random distributions of l with different degrees of heterogeneity and 3 a hybrid distribution combining the depth dependent l profile with the 2 d random l distributions the first type of l distribution with relatively small l over the depth range corresponding to the seismogenic zone and larger l elsewhere generates stick slip events in the seismogenic zone and ongoing creep above and below that region the 2 d heterogeneous parameterizations generate frequency size statistics with event sizes spanning 4 orders of magnitude our results indicate that different degrees of heterogeneity of l distributions control 1 the number of simulated events and 2 the overall stress level and fluctuations other observable trends are 3 the dependency of hypocenter location on l and 4 different nucleation phases for small and large events in heterogeneous distributions

a systematic review of geological evidence for holocene earthquakes and tsunamis along the nankai suruga trough japan the nankai suruga trough the subduction zone that lies immediately south of japan s densely populated southern coastline generates devastating great earthquakes magnitude 8 characterised by intense shaking crustal deformation and tsunami generation forecasting the hazards associated with future earthquakes along this 700 km long fault requires a comprehensive understanding of past fault behaviour while the region benefits from a long and detailed historical record palaeoseismology has the potential to provide a longer term perspective and additional crucial insights in this paper we summarise the current state of knowledge regarding geological evidence for past earthquakes and tsunamis along the nankai suruga trough incorporating literature originally published in both japanese and english and enhancing available results with new age modelling approaches we summarise and critically evaluate evidence from a wide variety of sources palaeoseismic evidence includes uplifted marine terraces and biota marine and lacustrine turbidites liquefaction features subsided marshes and tsunami deposits in coastal lakes and lowlands while 75 publications describe proposed evidence from 70 sites only a limited number provide compelling well dated evidence the best available records enable us to map the most likely rupture zones of twelve earthquakes that occurred during the historical period this spatiotemporal compilation suggests that the 1707 ce earthquake ruptured almost the full length of the subduction zone and that earthquakes in 1361 ce and 684 ce may have been predecessors of similar magnitude intervening earthquakes were of lesser magnitude highlighting the variability in rupture mode that characterises the nankai suruga trough intervals between ruptures of the same seismic segment range from 450 years during the historical period over longer timescales palaeoseismic evidence suggests intervals between earthquakes ranging from 100 to 700 years however these figures reflect a range of thresholds controlling the creation and preservation of evidence at any given site as well as the genuine intervals between earthquakes at present there is no geological data that suggest the occurrence of a larger magnitude earthquake than that experienced in 1707 ce however few studies have sought to establish the relative magnitudes of different earthquake and tsunami events along the nankai suruga trough alongside the lack of research designed to quantify the maximum magnitude of past earthquakes we emphasise issues over alternative hypotheses for proposed palaeoseismic evidence the paucity of robust chronological frameworks and insufficient appreciation of changing thresholds of evidence creation and preservation over time as key issues that must be addressed by future research

loci and maximum size of thrust earthquakes and the mechanics of the shallow region of subduction zones earthquakes do not extend updip along the plate interface at most subduction zones all of the way to the plate boundary at the trench axis or deformation front rather the shallowest part of that interface moves mainly through stable aseismic slip that part of the plate boundary referred to here as the aseismic zone occurs along the base of an accreted wedge of young sediments the probable primary cause for the existence of this aseismic zone is the stable slip properties of the unconsolidated and semiconsolidated sediments in that zone subducted sediment is progressively dewatered and underplated to the base of the overriding plate through this process more consolidated rocks eventually come into contact at depth across both sides of the plate boundary from the point where sufficiently hard rock is found across the plate interface that interface will change its slip behavior to unstable stick slip sliding which is characteristic of consolidated material under most conditions this type of motion is accommodated seismically as episodic slip in large earthquakes the location of this transition to seismic behavior referred to as the seismic front marks the deep end of the aseismic zone and the top of the seismogenic zone i e that part of the plate interface that moves primarily in thrust earthquakes several convergent plate margins are discussed to illustrate the seismic front and the aseismic zone we find that the seismic front defined by smaller earthquakes that occur during the interval between large events is nearly the same as that for large events as inferred from the locations of their aftershocks the location of the seismic front is important for making estimates of the maximum possible size of thrust earthquakes along the plate boundary because it delimits the trenchward limit of the potential rupture area of these events the size of large thrust earthquakes is proportional to rupture area and to at least the cube of the downdip width w of that area thus by defining the location of the seismic front for convergent margins it is possible to make better estimates of w and hence to deduce the maximum size of future interplate earthquakes the average repeat time of such events is also related to w and so better estimates of average repeat time are possible from improved knowledge of w the hypothesis that the location of the seismic front is related to the maximum depth of subduction of unconsolidated sediment has implications for forearc mechanics we use a mechanical analysis laboratory modeling and multichannel seismic information to develop a simple model explaining the growth of forearcs the outer arc high or trench slope break that occurs arcward of most accretionary wedges represents an abrupt change in the critical taper of the accretionary wedge we argue that that change is caused by a large arcward increase in the strength of the material within the overriding plate that stronger material is called the backstop our laboratory modeling experiments indicate that a backstop with a trenchward dipping upper surface results in the development of an overlying structure that includes all of the primary morphologic features observed in modern forearcs in our modeling an accretionary wedge develops trenchward of the backstop an outer arc high develops above the trenchward toe of the backstop and farther arcward a passive forearc basin forms above the stronger material of the backstop this model is consistent with the observation that earthquakes do not extend updip along the plate interface all the way to the trench axis we hypothesize that plate motion is accommodated seismically along the base of the consolidated backstop and mostly or entirely aseismically trenchward of the toe of the backstop along the base of the accretionary wedge at several margins the seismic front is approximately coincident with the outer arc high supporting this interpretation

mainshocks are aftershocks of conditional foreshocks how do foreshock statistical properties emerge from aftershock laws 1 the inverse omori law for foreshocks discovered in the 1970s states that the rate of earthquakes prior to a mainshock increases on average as a power law 1 tc t p of the time to the mainshock occurring at tc here we show that this law results from the direct omori law for aftershocks describing the power law decay 1 t tc p of seismicity after an earthquake provided that any earthquake can trigger its suit of aftershocks in this picture the seismic activity at any time is the sum of the spontaneous tectonic loading and of the activity triggered by all preceding events weighted by their corresponding omori law the inverse omori law then emerges as the expected in a statistical sense trajectory of seismicity conditioned on the fact that it leads to the burst of seismic activity accompanying the mainshock in particular we predict and verify by numerical simulations on the epidemic type aftershock sequence etas model that p is always smaller than or equal to p and a function of p of the b value of the gutenberg richter law gr and of a parameter quantifying the number of direct aftershocks as a function of the magnitude of the mainshock the often documented apparent decrease of the b value of the gr law at the approach to the mainshock results straightforwardly from the conditioning of the path of seismic activity culminating at the mainshock however we predict that the gr law is not modified simply by a change of b value but that a more accurate statement is that the gr law gets an additive or deviatoric power law contribution with exponent smaller than b and with an amplitude growing as a power law of the time to the mainshock in the space domain we predict that the phenomenon of aftershock diffusion must have its mirror process reflected into an inward migration of foreshocks toward the mainshock in this model foreshock sequences are special aftershock sequences which are modified by the condition to end up in a burst of seismicity associated with the mainshock foreshocks are not just statistical creatures but are genuine forerunners of large shocks as shown by the large prediction gains obtained using several of their qualifiers

impact of earthquake rupture extensions on parameter estimations of point process models abstract stochastic point processes are widely applied to model spatiotemporal earthquake occurrence in particular the epidemic type aftershock sequence etas model has been shown to successfully reproduce the short term clustering of earthquakes an important parameter of the model is the value describing the scaling of the aftershock productivity with magnitude of the triggering earthquake according to 10 m fitting of the space dependent etas model to empirical data yields values that are typically much smaller than the scaling inverted from more simple stacking of aftershock sequences we show by means of synthetic simulations that this is likely to result from assuming spatial isotropy of aftershock occurrence that in fact aligns along the mainshock rupture we fit the space dependent and space independent etas models to simulations where each earthquake is a line source with an empirical magnitude length relation although the space time model describes past activity quite well it overestimates the forecasted earthquake rate on the other hand the application of the space independent etas model predicts future seismicity well and can therefore be applied for forecasting purposes our test for the observed aftershock sequence following the 1992 m 7 3 landers earthquake supports these results

tsunamigenic potential of the shallow subduction plate boundary inferred from slow seismic slip at subduction zones slip along the shallowest parts of the plate boundary is generally thought to be aseismic observations of very low frequency earthquakes occurring at shallow levels on the plate boundary of the nankai trough subduction zone imply that slow but seismic slip can occur there and could potentially generate tsunamigenic earthquakes

time sequence and the recurrence models for large earthquakes along the nankai trough revisited it is suggested that time sequence of earthquakes can be explained by the time predictable recurrence model rather than the slip predictable recurrence model however the reliability of the model depends primarily on data accuracy missing large events seriously affect the evaluation of the models although the time predictable model can explain the recent three large events along the nankai trough back to a d 1707 there was serious discrepancy when the model was applied to older events recent archeological studies have discovered new events along the trough missed in historical documents i found that with the addition of the archeologically discovered new events the recurrence models can be applied to older events and that the time sequence including these new events suggests a time predictable recurrence pattern over a 1000 year interval

statistical discrimination of foreshocks from other earthquake clusters summary when earthquake activity begins it may be a foreshock sequence to a larger earthquake a swarm or a simple main shock aftershock sequence this paper is concerned with the conditional probability that it will be foreshock activity of a later larger earthquake depending on the occurrence pattern of some early events in the sequence the earthquake catalogue of the japan meteorological agency 1926 1993 m 24 is decomposed into a large number of clusters in time and space in order to compare statistical features of foreshocks with those of swarms and aftershocks using such a data set ogata utsu katsura 1995 revealed some discriminating features of foreshocks relative to the other types of clusters for example the events closer proximity in time and space and a tendency towards chronologically increasing magnitudes which encouraged us to construct models which forecast the probability of the earthquakes being foreshocks specifically the probability is a function of the history of magnitude differences spans between origin times and distances between epicentres within a cluster for purposes of illustration the models were fitted to the early part of the data 1926 1975 and the validity of the forecasting procedure was checked on data from the later period 1976 1993 two procedures for evaluating the performance of the probability forecast are suggested furthermore for the case where only a single event is available i e either it is the first event in a cluster or an isolated event we also forecast the probability of the event being a foreshock as a function of its geographic location then the validity of the forecast is demonstrated in a similar manner finally making use of the multi element prediction formula we show that the forecasting performance is enhanced by the joint use of the information in the location of the first event and that in the subsequent interevent history in the cluster

second order moment of central california seismicity 1969 1982 the second order moment cross correlation function of earthquakes in the u s geological survey central california catalog between 1969 and 1982 was calculated with respect to a magnitude threshold m 4 0 over interevent distances up to 80 km and interevent times up to 320 days the statistical procedure results in a representation of the spatial temporal structure of the catalog associated with m 4 0 earthquakes and is capable of revealing patterns too weak to be detected in the space time distribution of seismicity for individual earthquake sequences a method is introduced for identifying aftershocks based on a physical two parameter model of the earthquake interaction process the results show that the aftershock process dominates the second order moment and may even obscure the statistical expression of a precursory process a concentration of foreshocks within 15 km and 3 days of m 4 0 main shocks exhibits an apparent migration toward the main shock loci with velocity 2 6 5 3 km d this concentration may be related to an observed tendency for m 4 0 events to cluster auto correlate over this interevent range with the identified aftershocks removed the residual catalog is poissonion in space and time when two m 4 0 earthquakes occur within 80 km and 40 days of each other aftershock productivity appears to be relatively enhanced in the earlier sequence this suggests that aftershock populations are not solely dependent on their main shocks and that unusually productive aftershock sequences may be predictors of future moderate earthquakes

crustal velocity field of southwest japan subduction and arc arc collision we investigate crustal deformation in southwest japan over a 3 year period revealed by a permanent dense global positioning system gps array southwest japan is a part of the amurian plate a microplate moving about 10 mm yr toward the east with respect to the eurasian plate it overrides the philippine sea plate at the nankai trough and collides with the northeast japan arc in the central part of japan in this paper we first derive gps site velocities relative to the stable part of the amurian plate in order to isolate signals of crustal deformation caused by the subduction and or the collision the velocity field has a conspicuous feature indicating the interseismic elastic loading by the philippine sea plate slab at the nankai trough characterized by the northwestward movements of points throughout the studied area their amplitudes are the largest at the pacific coast and decay toward the japan sea coast with a subtle systematic shift of azimuths a model assuming an elastic half space the convergence rate at the nankai trough based on a refined euler vector and the strength of the coupling inferred from a thermal model could explain the velocity field in the western part of the studied area to a large extent those in the eastern part systematically deviate from them and the residual components there show east west shortening and north south extension this may represent crustal thickening and trenchward extrusion of crustal blocks caused by the collision between southwest and northeast japan this suggests that the collision between southwest and northeast japan gives rise to not only crustal thickening but also trenchward extrusion of crustal block a velocity contrast was found across the median tectonic line the largest inland active fault in japan but the current permanent gps network is not dense enough for us to discuss its coupling depth

possible slip history scenarios for the hyuga nada region and bungo channel and their relationship with nankai earthquakes in southwest japan based on numerical simulations the nankai earthquakes are great interplate earthquakes with recurrence intervals of 100 200 years occurring along the nankai trough southwestern japan new geological evidences suggest that the rupture area of the 1707 earthquake one of the largest extended farther westward than previously thought and similar magnitude events may have recurrence intervals of several hundred years west of the nankai earthquake segments in the bungo channel region slow slip events sses have occurred with recurrence intervals of several years since 1980 farther westward no m 7 5 interplate earthquakes have occurred except for one in 1968 in the northern hyuga nada region near the bungo channel we numerically simulated the generation cycles of nankai earthquakes hyuga nada earthquakes and bungo channel sses to obtain possible slip histories in these regions particularly during 1707 1980 we showed that the nankai and hyuga nada earthquakes occur mostly independently with average recurrence intervals of 151 and 117 years respectively an sse patch slipped coseismically during both the nankai and hyuga nada earthquakes the rupture of the nankai earthquakes extended to the hyuga nada region every 500 600 years and was followed by quiescence of sses for more than 200 years subsequently sses occurred repeatedly every 8 years current observational findings are generally consistent with the characteristics obtained from our scenarios except regarding the recurrence intervals of hyuga nada earthquakes for which few observations are available further evidence of the slip history in these regions will be required to use information from such simulations to forecast future earthquakes

the slip distribution of the 1946 nankai earthquake estimated from tsunami inversion using a new plate model abstract a new model for the shape of the philippine sea plate psp subducting beneath southwest japan was constructed by combining marine seismic survey results and seismicity data this resulted in a plate model that is generally 3 5 km shallower than previous estimates and contains new details of plate boundary structure near the nankai trough axis we estimated the slip distribution of the 1946 nankai earthquake by inverting tsunami waveforms using the new plate boundary model and found that the large slip off cape muroto and seismic moment were reduced by about 10 from the previous estimate of tanioka and satake 2001a however we also found reason to suspect the tide gauge closest to the epicenter at shimotsu and this resulted in a much more substantial reduction in the amount of slip in the eastern segment of the rupture area we also find that our new rupture model correlates well with features of the subducting plate boundary such as a large subducting seamount off cape muroto kodaira et al 2000a this suggests that such features have an important effect on either earthquake rupture propagation or the interseismic accumulation of elastic strain energy or both

single link cluster analysis as a method to evaluate spatial and temporal properties of earthquake catalogues summary single link cluster analysis is a straightforward method to quantitatively measure the degree of clustering or isolation of groups of elements in a set such as a catalogue of earthquakes to apply single link cluster analysis to a set of n earthquakes individual earthquakes are first linked to their nearest neighbours to form event sub groups the process is then repeated and each sub group linked to its nearest neighbour recursively until n 1 links are found to join all the earthquakes this paper shows how knowledge of these links can be used to divide a group of earthquakes into any number of spatial clusters with various modifications this analysis can identify earthquake nests isolated events aftershock sequences and zones of seismic quiescence to illustrate this method we apply it to i a global data set of 2178 earthquakes having mb of 5 8 or greater reported by the international seismological centre isc between 1964 and february 1986 and ii sets of earthquakes having mb of 4 9 and greater as reported by the isc occurring in central america and in the aleutians to facilitate comparison with real data this study also investigates the distribution of link lengths for synthetic events placed randomly on 1 d circular line 2 d circular area and 3 d spherical volume geometries if we remove links between nuclear explosions from the isc data the resulting link distribution is quite similar to that for synthetic events placed along a 1 d fault for the shortest links the similarity improves markedly if the synthetic fault has a finite width or if relative location errors cause events to be located away from the fault trace with a standard deviation of about 15 km

hierarchical asperity model for multiscale characteristic earthquakes a numerical study for the off kamaishi earthquake sequence in the ne japan subduction zone 1 we develop a numerical model to simulate the occurrence of multiscale characteristic earthquakes in the off kamaishi area of the northeast japan subduction zone a notable feature of these earthquake sequences is that microearthquakes occur during the later half of interseismic period between two successive m 4 9 characteristic earthquakes which we call moderate earthquakes we introduce a microasperity the rupture area of the microearthquakes with a significantly smaller nucleation size than the size of a hyper asperity the rupture area for moderate earthquakes in contrast the nucleation size in the rest of the hyper asperity which we call a conditional asperity is set to be comparable to the spatial size of the hyper asperity such a hierarchical asperity model successfully reproduces the observed earthquake sequences the simulation results show that both microearthquakes and moderate earthquakes nucleate at the microasperity the stress level in the conditional asperity determines whether a rupture terminates just outside the microasperity or propagates out into the conditional asperity

interplate coupling in southwest japan deduced from inversion analysis of gps data abstract recently the geographical survey institute of japan completed the installation of a gps continuous observation network in japan which has enabled us to investigate real time crustal movements in this study we attempt to obtain spatial distribution of interplate coupling and relative plate motion between subducting and overriding plates in southwest japan using horizontal and vertical deformation rates which were observed at 247 gps observation stations during the period from april 6 1996 to march 20 1998 for this purpose we carried out an inversion analysis of geodetic data incorporating akaike s bayesian information criterion abic as a result strong interplate coupling was found off shikoku and kumanonada regions which corresponds well with the fault regions of the 1946 nankai m 8 1 and the 1944 tonankai m 8 0 earthquakes respectively we also found that interplate coupling becomes weak at depths deeper than about 30 to 40 km beneath the shikoku and kii peninsula the recurrence time of great trench type earthquakes was roughly estimated as 107 years which is consistent with previous research the direction of relative plate motion is oriented n53 w which is close to the direction predicted from the plate motion model on the other hand a large forward slip was found in the hyuganada region off southeast of kyushu since the coseismic displacements associated with the two 1996 hyuganada earthquakes m 6 6 m 6 6 are removed from the gps data this suggests that after slip occurred near the source region and or that kyushu moves southeastward stationarily due to other tectonic forces

detailed coseismic slip distribution of the 1944 tonankai earthquake estimated from tsunami waveforms coseismic slip distribution on the fault plane of the 1944 tonankai earthquake is estimated from inversion of tsunami waveforms three improvements from a previous study satake 1993 are made these are 1 smaller subfaults are used to resolve detailed slip distribution 2 the sub faults fit better to the plate interface geometry and 3 finer and more accurate bathymetry data is used the inversion result shows that a maximum slip of about 3 m occurred on the plate interface off shima peninsula the total seismic moment is estimated to be 2 0 1021 nm mw 8 2 the result confirms that the 1944 tonankai earthquake did not rupture the plate interface beneath the tokai region and supports the existence of the seismic gap in the tokai region suggested by ishibashi 1981 the slip of about 1 5 m on the plate interface beneath atsumi peninsula northeast of the large slip area is necessary to explain the observed tsunami waveforms although no seismic moment release was estimated from strong motion data by kikuchi et al 1999 this may suggest that the rupture beneath atsumi peninsula was slow

plate convergence and long term crustal deformation in central japan surveys by continuous global positioning system in and around japan revealed that the amurian plate collides with the north american plate in central japan by 2 cm yr long term crustal deformation seems to be influenced mainly by this collision although subduction of oceanic plates governs short term elastic deformation over the arc here we study the long term deformation field by carefully removing the short term signals inferred from a priori plate convergence vectors and coupling strengths predicted by a thermal model the obtained field shows that the change in velocities occurs along the longitude 135 137 and there exist a relatively rigid block and zones accommodating strains characteristic compressional deformation is found northwest of izu due possibly to the collision of the izu bonin arc with honshu plate convergence rate along the nankai suruga trough is considerably smaller in eastern parts due partly to the transition from the amurian to the north american plate of the landward side and partly to the motion of the izu microplate relative to the philippine sea plate this accounts for longer recurrence intervals of interplate earthquakes in the suruga trough where the tokai earthquake is anticipated to occur

foreshocks explained by cascades of triggered seismicity 1 the observation of foreshocks preceding large earthquakes and the suggestion that foreshocks have specific properties that may be used to distinguish them from other earthquakes have raised the hope that large earthquakes may be predictable among proposed anomalous properties are the larger proportion than normal of large versus small foreshocks the power law acceleration of seismicity rate as a function of time to the mainshock and the spatial migration of foreshocks toward the mainshock when averaging over many sequences using southern california seismicity we show that these properties and others arise naturally from the simple model that any earthquake may trigger other earthquakes without arbitrary distinction between foreshocks aftershocks and mainshocks we find that foreshock precursory properties are independent of the mainshock size this implies that earthquakes large or small are predictable to the same degree as seismicity rate is predictable from past seismicity by taking into account cascades of triggering the cascades of triggering give rise naturally to long range and long time interactions which can explain the observations of correlations in seismicity over surprisingly large length scales

transport of the environmental radionuclides in an alpine watershed abstract the radionuclides137cs 210pb and7be have been examined in the alpine rho ne watershed switzerland during a period of two years in order to evaluate their usefulness as tracers of the removal and transport rate of top soil particles and particle reactive contaminants of atmospheric origin the specific activities of the radionuclides in fluvial suspension show a distinct seasonal pattern which depends on the hydrologic regime of the stream and the sources of the suspended matter input output budgets based on the atmospheric deposition and fluvial removal of three radionuclides in the alpine rho ne watershed are used to estimate their erosional residence times the simplest one box model yields mean residence times of about 800 and 1400 years for137cs and210pb respectively the removal rate of short lived7be suggests that a part of the watershed 0 6 2 3 of the total surface is exposed to a rapid erosion in which the mean residence time of the radionuclides is in the range of 1 220 days this has little influence on the calculated residence time of137cs but increases the estimated residence time of210pb in soil to over 1800 years the use of210pb 7be pair in fluvial output may be very helpful in the assessment of the impact of atmospheric pollutants on the water quality in rivers and lakes