a continuum of stress strength and slip in the cascadia subduction zone movement of the down going oceanic plate in subduction zones is accommodated by earthquakes slow slip and free slip with increasing depth analysis of accompanying tremor reveals a continuum of slow slip events in the cascadia subduction zone which suggests that deep free slip of the subducted plate may cause stress to be gradually transferred up the plate interface towards the seismogenic zone

scaling of the critical slip distance for seismic faulting with shear strain in fault zones theoretical and experimentally based laws for seismic faulting contain a critical slip distance1 5 dc which is the slip over which strength breaks down during earthquake nucleation on an earthquake generating fault this distance plays a key role in determining the rupture nucleation dimension6 the amount of premonitory and post seismic slip7 10 and the maximum seismic ground acceleration1 11 in laboratory friction experiments d c has been related to the size of surface contact junctions2 5 12 thus the discrepancy between laboratory measurements of dc 10 5m and values obtained from modelling earthquakes 10 2m has been attributed to differences in roughness between laboratory surfaces and natural faults5 this interpretation predicts a dependence of dc on the particle size of fault gouge2 breccia and wear material but not on shear strain here we present experimental results showing that dc scales with shear strain in simulated fault gouge our data suggest a new physical interpretation for the critical slip distance in which dc is controlled by the thickness of the zone of localized shear strain as gouge zones of mature faults are commonly 102 103 m thick12 17 whereas laboratory gouge layers are 1 10 mm thick our data offer an alternative interpretation of the discrepancy between laboratory and field based estimates of dc

elevated pore pressure and anomalously low stress in regions of low frequency earthquakes along the nankai trough subduction megathrust 1 recent seismic reflection and ocean bottom seismometer obs studies reveal broad regions of low seismic velocity along the nankai subduction plate boundary megathrust offshore sw japan these low velocity zones lvz s extend 55 km landward from the trench corresponding to depths of 10 km below sea floor here we estimate the in situ pore pressure and stress state within these lvz s by combining p wave velocities obtained from the geophysical surveys with new well constrained empirical relations between p wave velocity porosity and effective mean stress defined by laboratory deformation tests on drill core samples of the incoming oceanic sediment we document excess pore pressures of 17 87 mpa that extend 55 km into the subduction zone indicating that trapped pore fluids support 45 91 of the overburden stress along the base of the upper plate and surrounding major fault zones the resulting effective stresses in the lvz are limited to 1 3 of the values expected for non overpressured conditions these low effective stresses should lead to a mechanically weak and predominantly aseismic plate boundary the region of lowest effective stress coincides with precisely located very low frequency earthquakes providing the first quantitative evidence linking these anomalous slip events to low stress and high pore pressure

implications of fault constitutive properties for earthquake prediction the rate and state dependent constitutive formulation for fault slip characterizes an exceptional variety of materials over a wide range of sliding conditions this formulation provides a unified representation of diverse sliding phenomena including slip weakening over a characteristic sliding distance dc apparent fracture energy at a rupture front time dependent healing after rapid slip and various other transient and slip rate effects laboratory observations and theoretical models both indicate that earthquake nucleation is accompanied by long intervals of accelerating slip strains from the nucleation process on buried faults generally could not be detected if laboratory values of dc apply to faults in nature however scaling of dc is presently an open question and the possibility exists that measurable premonitory creep may precede some earthquakes earthquake activity is modeled as a sequence of earthquake nucleation events in this model earthquake clustering arises from sensitivity of nucleation times to the stress changes induced by prior earthquakes the model gives the characteristic omori aftershock decay law and assigns physical interpretation to aftershock parameters the seismicity formulation predicts large changes of earthquake probabilities result from stress changes two mechanisms for foreshocks are proposed that describe observed frequency of occurrence of foreshock mainshock pairs by time and magnitude with the first mechanism foreshocks represent a manifestation of earthquake clustering in which the stress change at the time of the foreshock increases the probability of earthquakes at all magnitudes including the eventual mainshock with the second model accelerating fault slip on the mainshock nucleation zone triggers foreshocks

intense foreshocks and a slow slip event preceded the 2014 iquique mw 8 1 earthquake the subduction zone in northern chile is a well identified seismic gap that last ruptured in 1877 the moment magnitude mw 8 1 iquique earthquake of 1 april 2014 broke a highly coupled portion of this gap to understand the seismicity preceding this event we studied the location and mechanisms of the foreshocks and computed global positioning system gps time series at stations located on shore seismicity off the coast of iquique started to increase in january 2014 after 16 march several mw 6 events occurred near the low coupled zone these events migrated northward for 50 kilometers until the 1 april earthquake occurred on 16 march on shore continuous gps stations detected a westward motion that we model as a slow slip event situated in the same area where the mainshock occurred

quantitative measure of the variation in fault rheology due to fluid rock interactions we analyze friction data from two published suites of laboratory tests on granite in order to explore and quantify the effects of temperature t and pore water pressure pp on the sliding behavior of faults rate stepping sliding tests were performed on laboratory faults in granite containing gouge granite powder both dry at 23 to 845 c lockner et al 1986 and wet pp 100 mpa at 23 to 600 c blanpied et al 1991 1995 imposed slip velocities v ranged from 0 01 to 5 5 m s and effective normal stresses were near 400 mpa for dried granite at all temperatures and wet granite below 300 c the coefficient of friction shows low sensitivity to v t and pp for wet granite above 350 drops rapidly with increasing t and shows a strong positive rate dependence and protracted strength transients following steps in v presumably reflecting the activity of a water aided deformation process by inverting strength data from velocity stepping tests we determined values for parameters in three formulations of a rate and state dependent constitutive law one or two state variables were used to represent slip history effects each velocity step yielded an independent set of values for the nominal friction level five constitutive parameters transient parameters a b1 and b2 and characteristic displacements dc1 and dc2 and the velocity dependence of steady state friction ss ln v a b1 b2 below 250 data from dry and most wet tests are adequately modeled by using the slip law ruina 1983 and one state variable a 0 003 to 0 018 b 0 001 to 0 018 dc 1 to 20 m dried tests above 250 can also be fitted with one state variable in contrast wet tests above 350 require higher direct rate dependence a 0 03 to 0 12 plus a second state variable with large negative amplitude b2 0 03 to 0 14 and large characteristic displacement dc2 300 to 4000 m thus the parameters a b1 and b2 for wet granite show a pronounced change in their temperature dependence in the range 270 to 350 c which may reflect a change in underlying deformation mechanism we quantify the trends in parameter values from 25 to 600 c by piecewise linear regressions which provide a straightforward means to incorporate the full constitutive response of granite into numerical models of fault slip the modeling results suggest that the succeptibility for unstable stick slip sliding is maximized between 90 and 360 c in agreement with laboratory observations and consistent with the depth range of earthquakes on mature faults in the continental crust

effect of depth dependent shear modulus on tsunami generation along subduction zones estimates of the initial size of tsunamis generated by subduction zone earthquakes are significantly affected by the choice of shear modulus at shallow depths analysis of over 360 circum pacific subduction zone earthquakes indicates that for a given seismic moment source duration increases significantly with decreasing depth bilek and lay 1998 1999 under the assumption that stress drop is constant the increase of source duration is explained by a 5 fold reduction of shear modulus from depths of 20 km to 5 km this much lower value of shear modulus at shallow depths in comparison to standard earth models has the effect of increasing the amount of slip estimated from seismic moment determinations thereby increasing tsunami amplitude the effect of using depth dependent shear modulus values is tested by modeling the tsunami from the 1992 nicaraguan tsunami earthquake using a previously determined moment distribution ihmle 1996a we find that the tide gauge record of this tsunami is well matched by synthetics created using the depth dependent shear modulus and moment distribution because excitation of seismic waves also depends on elastic heterogeneity it is important particularly for the inversion of short period waves that a consistent seismic tsunami shear modulus model be used for calculating slip distributions

triggering of tremor and inferred slow slip by small earthquakes at the nankai subduction zone in southwest japan the correlation of earthquakes with tremor and slow slip has not been clearly quantified we investigate 12 year earthquake and tremor catalogs for southwest japan and find that nearby small intraslab earthquakes are weakly correlated with tremor in particular the intraslab earthquakes with magnitudes 2 7 tend to be followed by tremor more often than expected at random by a factor of 2 to 6 the excess number of tremor before earthquakes is not as significant although marginally more than expected the underlying physical mechanism of the observed triggering of tremor and inferred slow slip by earthquakes is most likely to be the dynamic stress changes several to several tens of kilopascals rather than the much smaller static stress changes the rate of triggering of tremor by earthquakes is similar to although somewhat lower than rates observed for similar amplitude stress changes due to the lower frequency teleseismic surface waves and tidal stressing

on the physical mechanism of silent slip events along the deeper part of the seismogenic zone 1 to investigate the mechanism of recently observed silent slip events we simulated earthquake preparation processes using the dieterich ruina rate and state dependent friction law to ensure realistic modeling of the unstable stable transition we considered small cut off velocity to an evolution effect in the friction law for the transition zone when the cut off velocity to the evolution effect is significantly smaller than that of a direct effect steady state friction behaves as velocity weakening at low slip velocity and velocity strengthening at high slip velocity this frictional behavior was experimentally and theoretically confirmed for the unstable stable transition zone the results of our numerical simulations show that silent slips of which velocity is higher than the velocity of relative plate motion eventually propagates horizontally along the unstable stable transition over a period of several years silent slip events can be interpreted as being caused by the transitional behavior of the fault constitutive law

slow slip on the northern hikurangi subduction interface new zealand 1 in october 2002 a surface displacement episode of 20 30 mm magnitude was observed over a 10 day period on two continuous global positioning system gps instruments near gisborne north island new zealand we interpret this to result from slow slip on the northern hikurangi subduction interface using ten years of regional campaign gps 1995 2004 and recent continuous gps data we estimate the recurrence interval for similar events to be 2 3 yrs in november 2004 a similar slow slip event occurred within this recurrence period the 2002 event can be modeled by 18 cm of slow slip near the down dip end of the seismogenic zone on the subduction interface offshore of gisborne the campaign gps data show that the 2002 slow slip event had little effect on regional strain patterns

teleseismic search for slow precursors to large earthquakes some large earthquakes display low frequency seismic anomalies that are best explained by episodes of slow smooth deformation immediately before their high frequency origin times analysis of the low frequency spectra of 107 shallow focus earthquakes revealed 20 events that had slow precursors 95 percent confidence level 19 were slow earthquakes associated with the ocean ridge transform system and 1 was a slow earthquake on an intracontinental transform fault in the east african rift system these anomalous earthquakes appear to be compound events each comprising one or more ordinary fast ruptures in the shallow seismogenic zone initiated by a precursory slow event in the adjacent or subjacent lithosphere

laterally propagating slow slip events in a rate and state friction model with a velocity weakening to velocity strengthening transition we investigate the behavior of simulated slow slip events using a rate and state friction model that is steady state velocity weakening at low slip speeds but velocity strengthening at high slip speeds our simulations are on a one dimensional line fault but we modify the elastic interactions to mimic the elongate geometry frequently observed in slow slip events simulations exhibit a number of small events as well as periodic large events the large events propagate approximately steadily along strike and stress and slip rate decay gradually behind the propagating front their recurrence intervals can be determined by considering what is essentially an energy balance requirement for long distance propagation it is possible to choose the model parameters such that the simulated events have the stress drops slip velocities and propagation rates observed in cascadia

the 2006 aseismic slow slip event in guerrero mexico new results from gps 1 crustal deformation measurements from guerrero mexico were made with continuous gps instrumentation this network spans 75 km along the coast and a 275 km transect from the coast to mexico city which is perpendicular to the middle america trench a large aseismic slip transient occurred from april to december 2006 yielding horizontal displacements of nearly 6 cm in the direction opposite to that recorded interseismically this transient slip episode closely follows a series of m5 deep intraplate events that occurred in the northwestern portion of the guerrero region both horizontal and vertical displacements are inverted for the guerrero gps network to determine slip along the subduction interface using a simple fault model that accommodates changes in the subduction zone geometry it is found that slip is concentrated on interior fault patches and propagated to the southeast this slip event has a minimum equivalent mw of 7 5

slow wavespeeds and fluid overpressure in a region of shallow geodetic locking and slow slip hikurangi subduction margin new zealand abstract travel times recorded onshore from active source marine seismic surveys were used to determine hikurangi forearc wavespeeds ray path midpoints sample forearc crust above the shallow v p from the seabed to 4 km depth consistent with rapidly deposited clastic sediments and near constant v p 5 0 0 2 km s at depths of 4 10 km within the forearc the northern region has slow slip events at shallow depths of c 5 15 km beneath the volume sampled by our analysis average travel times at offsets of 20 80 km are 1 s more than at equivalent offsets in the south and v p increases with depth within the forearc from 3 5 0 1 km s at 4 km depth to 4 5 0 2 km s at 10 km depth we interpret the low wavespeeds in terms of compaction disequilibrium and compare seismic inferences of anomalously high porosity 10 with hydrostatic reference compaction models to show effective stress is low in both the north 27 10 mpa and south 36 14 mpa in the south pore space and conduits have a high chance of being localized on faults or sand layers the wedge is clearly compressionally critical and we suggest the higher seismic velocities recorded primarily reflect higher effective stress levels transmitted through the rock framework the observed wedge geometry and our estimate of fluid pressure within the wedge 0 87 0 05 suggest a weak overpressured subduction thrust in the north we suggest high fluid pressure is maintained by a large fluid inventory from subducting sediment a pore space geometry characterized by pervasively fractured rock and mudstone and a lower mean stress due to its stable and non critical wedge geometry we consider both end member assumptions of convergent and tensile failure the latter of which reveals the possibility of near lithostatic fluid pressure on the north hikurangi subduction interface although this remains unproven our observations are consistent with high fluid pressures encountered in petroleum wells at depths

a large slow slip event on the central hikurangi subduction interface beneath the manawatu region north island new zealand 1 we present continuous gps observations of a surface deformation episode in the manawatu region of the north island new zealand lasting 18 months from january 2004 to june 2005 we invert vertical and horizontal displacements of gps sites during the event for slow slip on the hikurangi subduction thrust we find that up to 350 mm of slip occurred on the thrust in the transition zone between strong interseismic coupling and aseismic creep if the entire slip in the manawatu slow slip event had occurred instantaneously it would have resulted in an mw 7 0 earthquake given the large amount of slip we expect that the recurrence interval for similar slow slip events may be ten years or more

simultaneous long term and short term slow slip events at the hikurangi subduction margin new zealand implications for processes that control slow slip event occurrence duration and migration 1 we document a sequence of simultaneous short term and long term slow slip events sses at the hikurangi subduction zone during the 2010 2011 period the sequence of short term events each 2 3 weeks in duration ruptured much of the shallow plate interface 15 km at central and northern hikurangi over a 6 month period was accompanied by microseismicity and involved patchy irregular migration of sse slip we suggest that the patchy migration of the short term sse is due to large scale 100 3500 km heterogeneities on the plate interface related to seamount subduction and sediment subduction and or underplating this is in contrast to a 2010 2011 long term sse at the central hikurangi margin which evolved steadily over 1 5 years and ruptured much of the plate interface between 20 and 70 km depth we suggest that the occurrence of long term versus short term sses at hikurangi is related to differences in effective normal stresses and relative heterogeneity of the subduction interface the long term sse sequence began 1 year before the short term sequence coulomb stress change models suggest that the long term sse may have triggered initiation of the subsequent short term sse sequence initiation of the short term sequence occurred in a region just updip of or within an interseismically locked portion of the plate interface and may be located within the updip transition from seismic to aseismic behavior alternatively it could be characteristic of a region undergoing partial interseismic coupling this is in contrast to sses observed elsewhere in the world that typically occur within the downdip transition from seismic to aseismic behavior

newly observed deep slow slip events at the central hikurangi margin new zealand implications for downdip variability of slow slip and tremor and relationship to seismic structure 1 we present previously undocumented deep 25 45 km depth moderate duration 2 3 months slow slip events sses directly downdip of known shallow 15 km depth short term 2 3 weeks sses at the central hikurangi margin new zealand the moderate duration sses produce 2 6 mm of horizontal displacement at continuous global positioning system stations in 2006 and 2008 similar to cascadia sses they involve 2 5 cm of slip over 5000 km2 of the subduction interface tremor occurs just downdip of the deep sse source area we also present results from a large shallow 12 km sse in 2013 just updip of the 2006 2008 sses the location of deep sses between shallow short term sses and tremor indicates strong downdip variation of subduction interface slip behavior at central hikurangi the deep sses occur where qp and vp vs data suggest an accumulation of fluid rich underplated sediment at the interface consistent with the idea that sses occur under high fluid pressure

foreshocks during the nucleation of stick slip instability 1 we report on laboratory experiments which investigate interactions between aseismic slip stress changes and seismicity on a critically stressed fault during the nucleation of stick slip instability we monitor quasi static and dynamic changes in local shear stress and fault slip with arrays of gages deployed along a simulated strike slip fault 2 m long and 0 4 m deep in a saw cut sample of sierra white granite with 14 piezoelectric sensors we simultaneously monitor seismic signals produced during the nucleation phase and subsequent dynamic rupture we observe localized aseismic fault slip in an approximately meter sized zone in the center of the fault while the ends of the fault remain locked clusters of high frequency foreshocks mw 6 5 to 5 0 can occur in this slowly slipping zone 5 50 ms prior to the initiation of dynamic rupture their occurrence appears to be dependent on the rate at which local shear stress is applied to the fault the meter sized nucleation zone is generally consistent with theoretical estimates but source radii of the foreshocks 2 to 70 mm are 1 to 2 orders of magnitude smaller than the theoretical minimum length scale over which earthquake nucleation can occur we propose that frictional stability and the transition between seismic and aseismic slip are modulated by local stressing rate and that fault sections which would typically slip aseismically may radiate seismic waves if they are rapidly stressed fault behavior of this type may provide physical insight into the mechanics of foreshocks tremor repeating earthquake sequences and a minimum earthquake source dimension

effects of historical land use on sediment yield from a lacustrine watershed in central chile sediment yield in the san pedro lake watershed inferred from sedimentation in the lake can be related to land use changes shown on aerial photographs taken during the period 1943 1994 in this watershed which covers 4 5 km2 of mountainous terrain in san pedro county central chile the area of native forest species decreased from 70 per cent in 1943 to 13 per cent in 1994 during this same period the area of pine plantations increased from 4 to 46 per cent to study effects of these changes we took a core from the centre of the lake and estimated sedimentation rates by 210pb dating which we checked with 137cs and pine pollen the results show that sedimentation rate ranged from 5 mg cm 2 a 1 in the late 1800s to 60 mg cm 2 a 1 in the late 1960s these rates together with assumptions about the production and delivery of the sediment give corresponding figures for sediment yields with maximum values close to 1 t ha 1 a 1 sediment yield between 1955 and 1994 closely tracks the total land use change that can be detected irrespective of land use type on sets of aerial photographs taken four to 18 years apart however this measure of land use change while convenient and successful as a predictor of historical erosion may be unreliable because it probably excludes many changes that occurred in long intervals between successive photographs copyright 2001 john wiley sons ltd

slow slip and frictional transition at low temperature at the hikurangi subduction zone temperature changes with depth do not appear to be a primary control for either slow slip or fault locking processes at the hikurangi margin north island new zealand both slow slip events and the geodetically observed transition from fault locking to free slip at depth occur at temperatures as low as 100 c shallow portions of faults exhibit brittle stick slip behaviour that gives way to more stable sliding with increasing depth limiting the depths to which earthquake inducing slip can occur the increase of temperature with depth is often assumed to transform friction in the fault from velocity weakening unstable to velocity strengthening stable and to change conditions from brittle to ductile1 2 3 4 5 a temperature of 350 c has been suggested to mark the base of the frictionally unstable portion of the fault which becomes free slipping at depth where temperatures rise above 450 c refs 2 4 6 here we show that both slow slip events and the geodetically observed transition from fault locking to free slip at the hikurangi subduction zone east of the north island new zealand occur at temperatures as low as 100 c suggesting that temperature is not a primary control on either slow slip or fault locking processes at the hikurangi margin although globally shallow slow slip events are rare five out of seven events observed so far at the hikurangi margin are less than 15 km deep

the role of silica redistribution in the evolution of slip instabilities along subduction interfaces constraints from the kodiak accretionary complex alaska abstract quartz veins from a subhorizontal shear zone in the kodiak accretionary complex in southwest alaska record cycles of cracking and sealing contemporaneous with simple shear and analysis of the vein array in the context of silica dissolution diffusion and precipitation leads to the conclusion that the time needed to seal after a fracture event overlaps with the time scales associated with the recurrence of slip instabilities along active megathrusts the central belt of the kodiak accretionary complex is interpreted as a shear zone developed adjacent to a paleo decollement that was active in the late cretaceous based on large strain magnitudes recumbent isoclinal folds and regional cleavage patterns that depict rotation of the steep cleavage that characterizes most of the kodiak formation into the horizontal fabrics of the central belt within this regional shear zone crack seal veins composed of quartz with phyllosilicate inclusion bands are spaced at less than a cm but en echelon vein arrays are spaced at 500 cm these arrays indicate top to the southeast shear on southeast dipping brittle ductile shear zones vein textures indicate cracking and sealing of thin veins in the matrix but thicker veins in en echelon sets record initial cracking and sealing followed by periodic collapse of fracture porosity at a frequency that is lower than the frequency of crack seal cycles silica depletion zones in the wall rock adjacent to veins indicate local transport of silica by diffusion by combining the maximum time in which diffusion could dominate over advection with the time needed to precipitate the quartz associated with one crack seal band we show that a reasonable range of p or pressure difference between matrix and crack can produce crack seal bands in less than 10 days this time frame is less than the recurrence of earthquakes and similar to the duration of some slow earthquakes in nature therefore silica redistribution could play a role in modulating the frequency of plate boundary slip instabilities along convergent plate boundaries

the role of deep water sedimentary processes in shaping a continental margin the northwest atlantic abstract the tectonic history of a margin dictates its general shape however its geomorphology is generally transformed by deep sea sedimentary processes the objective of this study is to show the influences of turbidity currents contour currents and sediment mass failures on the geomorphology of the deep water northwestern atlantic margin nwam between blake ridge and hudson trough spanning about 32 of latitude and the shelf edge to the abyssal plain this assessment is based on new multibeam echosounder data global bathymetric models and sub surface geophysical information the deep water nwam is divided into four broad geomorphologic classifications based on their bathymetric shape graded above grade stepped and out of grade these shapes were created as a function of the balance between sediment accumulation and removal that in turn were related to sedimentary processes and slope accommodation this descriptive method of classifying continental margins while being non interpretative is more informative than the conventional continental shelf slope and rise classification and better facilitates interpretation concerning dominant sedimentary processes areas of the margin dominated by turbidity currents and slope by pass developed graded slopes if sediments did not by pass the slope due to accommodation then an above grade or stepped slope resulted geostrophic currents created sedimentary bodies of a variety of forms and positions along the nwam detached drifts form linear above grade slopes along their crests from the shelf edge to the deep basin plastered drifts formed stepped slope profiles sediment mass failure has had a variety of consequences on the margin morphology large mass failures created out of grade profiles whereas smaller mass failures tended to remain on the slope and formed above grade profiles at trough mouth fans or nearly graded profiles such as offshore cape fear

an integrated perspective of the continuum between earthquakes and slow slip phenomena slow slip a mechanism by which faults can relieve stress was thought to be distinct from earthquakes however a global review of slow slip phenomena suggests that instead there is a continuum between the two types of event