twenty first century warming of a large antarctic ice shelf cavity by a redirected coastal current the redirection of warm water under the filchner ronne ice shelf during the second half of this century could cause the ice shelf base to melt at a rate 20 times higher than at present warm ocean currents are known to erode ice shelves from below but changes in currents can be forced by many different mechanisms leading to uncertain outcomes this study highlights the vulnerability to climate change of a small antarctic coastal region which has potentially severe consequences for the mass balance of a large antarctic ice shelf hellmer et al use climate modelling to show that the projected loss of sea ice in the weddell sea east of the antarctic peninsula leads to an increase in wind stress which in turn accelerates a warm ocean current far underneath the vast filchner ronne ice shelf the authors predict that the increased warmth could increase melt by a factor of 20 with possible consequences for ice stream dynamics in the east antarctic ice sheet the antarctic ice sheet loses mass at its fringes bordering the southern ocean at this boundary warm circumpolar water can override the continental slope front reaching the grounding line1 2 through submarine glacial troughs and causing high rates of melting at the deep ice shelf bases3 4 the interplay between ocean currents and continental bathymetry is therefore likely to influence future rates of ice mass loss here we show that a redirection of the coastal current into the filchner trough and underneath the filchner ronne ice shelf during the second half of the twenty first century would lead to increased movement of warm waters into the deep southern ice shelf cavity water temperatures in the cavity would increase by more than 2 degrees celsius and boost average basal melting from 0 2 metres or 82 billion tonnes per year to almost 4 metres or 1 600 billion tonnes per year our results which are based on the output of a coupled ice ocean model forced by a range of atmospheric outputs from the hadcm35 climate model suggest that the changes would be caused primarily by an increase in ocean surface stress in the southeastern weddell sea due to thinning of the formerly consolidated sea ice cover the projected ice loss at the base of the filchner ronne ice shelf represents 80 per cent of the present antarctic surface mass balance6 thus the quantification of basal mass loss under changing climate conditions is important for projections regarding the dynamics of antarctic ice streams and ice shelves and global sea level rise

circulation mixing and production of antarctic bottom water abstract the antarctic source of bottom water to the abyssal layer of the world ocean is examined as well as its large scale flow pattern and ultimate entrainment rate into the deep water above we make use of the available high quality station data in the southern ocean to construct bottom maps of neutral density and mean property maps including chlorofluorocarbon cfc for the abyssal layer underneath a selected neutral density surface the maximum density at the sill depth of drake passage is used to distinguish between the voluminous deep water mass that is a continuous component of the antarctic circumpolar current from the relatively denser bottom water originated along the antarctic continental margins based on water density antarctic bottom water aabw is defined here generically to include all volumes of non circumpolar water of antarctic origin over the shelf regime multiple localized sources of specific aabw types contribute to the abyssal layer of the adjacent antarctic basins characteristics of these dense bottom waters reflect closely those observed on the parent shelf water mass spreading paths of newly formed deep and bottom waters over the slope regime and their subsequent oceanic circulation patterns are analyzed on the basis of global property maps for the aabw layer interior mixing and interbasin exchanges of aabw are deduced from mean characteristic curves following the southern streamline of the antarctic circumpolar current outflow and mixing of aabw from the weddell sea to the argentine basin is depicted using density and cfc distributions of two zonal hydrographic lines recirculation and mixing of deep and bottom waters within the weddell gyre are also detailed using a meridional section along the greenwich meridian the strength of all localized sources of aabw combined is estimated by two independent approaches an estimate of the total production rate of aabw is calculated based on the oceanic cfc budget for the aabw layer offshore of the 2500 m isobath the sum of all downslope inputs of well ventilated bottom water types underneath the top isopycnal must account for the measured cfc content in the bottom layer the resulting total aabw production rate is about 8 sv which is a conservative figure that neglects the loss of cfc bearing waters across the top isopycnal in recent years whereas about 9 5 sv is calculated assuming a well mixed bottom layer making use of their transient nature cfc distributions at the top of the aabw layer indicate that more direct and rapid entrainment of cfc rich bottom waters below occurs over localized areas with relatively strong upwelling rates and enhanced vertical mixing a second more ad hoc but independent oceanic mass budget of the bottom layer is also constructed a typical basin wide rate of deep upwelling of 3 10 7 m s 1 requires 10 sv 1 sv 106 m3 s 1 of newly formed aabw to sink down the slope around antarctica we have also formulated a spatial distribution of deep upwelling on the isopycnal at the top of the aabw it is expressed as a combination of wind topographic and turbulent components which in turn are functions of the isopycnal depth bottom depth and bottom layer thickness this non uniform upwelling field yields about 12 sv of aabw exported across the top isopycnal fortuitously the overall average of upward speed at the top isopycnal 3 7 10 7 m s 1 compares well with previous estimates of deep upwelling in the northern basins a series of likely sites for strong vertical entrainment of aabw are clearly identified in the modeled distribution of deep upwelling consonant with the observed cfc distributions on the top isopycnal altogether regions with relatively high upwelling rates 5 10 7 m s 1 occupy only a quarter of the total areal extent of the top isopycnal but they account for as much as 45 of the total vertical transport

antarctic ice sheet melting in the southeast pacific the first oceanographic measurements across a deep channel beneath the calving front of pine island glacier reveal a sub ice circulation driven by basal melting of 10 12 m yr 1 a salt box model described here gives a melt rate similar to that of ice balance and numerical models 5 50 times higher than averages for the george vi and ross ice shelves melting is fueled by relatively warm circumpolar deep water that floods the deep floor of the amundsen and bellingshausen sea continental shelves reaching the deep draft of this floating glacier a revised melt rate for ice shelves in the southeast pacific sector raises circumpolar ice shelf melting to 756 gt yr 1 given prior estimates of surface accumulation and iceberg calving this suggests that the antarctic ice sheet is currently losing mass to the ocean

isotope data from ice station weddell implications for deep water formation in the weddell sea helium isotope data 3he 4he ratios and 4he concentrations and h218o h216o ratios obtained from stations occupied during the drift of ice station weddell february to june 1992 are used together with hydrographic data to study formation of deep and bottom water in the western weddell sea the data indicate deep and bottom water formation along the entire track of the ice station 71 4 to 65 8 s 53 w ice shelf water isw seems to contribute significantly to the formation of weddell sea deep water wsdw and weddell sea bottom water wsbw in the southern part of the drift track toward the north the fraction of isw contained in wsdw wsbw decreases this trend is overlaid by high isw fractions in the deep and bottom waters found in the vicinity of the larsen ice shelf the fraction of western shelf water wsw in wsbw shows the opposite trend increasing from south to north the combined fraction of isw and wsw in waters with potential temperatures below 0 c is about 20 corresponding to a roughly 200 m thick layer overall wsw seems to contribute approximately 2 to 3 times more water than isw to the water column below the 0 c isotherm using the estimated flow of isw over the sill north of the filchner depression of 1 sv foldvik et al 1985a together with the ratio of wsw plus winter water ww to isw we calculate a value of about 5 sv for the formation rate of wsbw with a potential temperature of 0 7 c about one third of this flux represents near surface waters wsw ww which have recently been equilibrated with the atmosphere whereas pure isw contributes about 10

iceberg trajectory modeling and meltwater injection in the southern ocean this is the first large scale modeling study of iceberg trajectories and melt rates in the southern ocean an iceberg model was seeded with climatological iceberg calving rates based on a calculation of the net surface accumulation from each snow catchment area on the antarctic continent in most areas modeled trajectories show good agreement with observed patterns of iceberg motion though discrepencies in the weddell sea have highlighted problems in the ocean general circulation model output used to force the iceberg model the coriolis force is found to be important in keeping bergs entrained in the coastal current around antarctica and topographic features are important in causing bergs to depart from the coastal regions the modeled geographic distribution of iceberg meltwater joining the ocean has been calculated and is found in many near coastal regions to be comparable in magnitude to the excess of precipitation over evaporation p e

thickness distribution of antarctic sea ice 1 ship based observations are used to describe regional and seasonal changes in the thickness distribution and characteristics of sea ice and snow cover thickness around antarctica the data set comprises 23 373 observations collected over more than 2 decades of activity and has been compiled as part of the scientific committee on antarctic research scar antarctic sea ice processes and climate aspect program the results show the seasonal progression of the ice thickness distribution for six regions around the continent together with statistics on the mean thickness surface ridging snow cover and local variability for each region and season a simple ridge model is used to calculate the total ice thickness from the observations of level ice and surface topography to provide a best estimate of the total ice mass including the ridged component the long term mean and standard deviation of total sea ice thickness including ridges is reported as 0 87 0 91 m which is 40 greater than the mean level ice thickness of 0 62 m analysis of the structure function along north south and east west transects revealed lag distances over which sea ice thickness decorrelates to be of the order of 100 300 km which we use as a basis for presenting near continuous maps of sea ice and snow cover thickness plotted on a 2 5 5 0 grid

warm ocean is eroding west antarctic ice sheet 1 satellite radar measurements show that ice shelves in pine island bay have thinned by up to 5 5 m yr 1 over the past decade the pattern of shelf thinning mirrors that of their grounded tributaries the pine island thwaites and smith glaciers and ocean currents on average 0 5 c warmer than freezing appear to be the source the synchronised imbalance of the inland glaciers is the result of reduced lateral and basal tractions at their termini and the drawdown of grounded ice shows that antarctica is more sensitive to changing climates than was previously considered

freshening of the ross sea during the late 20th century ocean measurements in the ross sea over the past four decades one of the longest records near antarctica reveal marked decreases in shelf water salinity and the surface salinity within the ross gyre these changes have been accompanied by atmospheric warming on ross island ocean warming at depths of 300 meters north of the continental shelf a more negative southern oscillation index and thinning of southeast pacific ice shelves the freshening appears to have resulted from a combination of factors including increased precipitation reduced sea ice production and increased melting of the west antarctic ice sheet

recent antarctic ice mass loss from radar interferometry and regional climate modelling observed estimates of ice losses in antarctica combined with regional modelling of ice accumulation in the interior suggest that east antarctica is close to a balanced mass budget but large losses of ice occur in the narrow outlet channels of west antarctic glaciers and at the northern tip of the antarctic peninsula

acceleration of the contribution of the greenland and antarctic ice sheets to sea level rise 1 ice sheet mass balance estimates have improved substantially in recent years using a variety of techniques over different time periods and at various levels of spatial detail considerable disparity remains between these estimates due to the inherent uncertainties of each method the lack of detailed comparison between independent estimates and the effect of temporal modulations in ice sheet surface mass balance here we present a consistent record of mass balance for the greenland and antarctic ice sheets over the past two decades validated by the comparison of two independent techniques over the last 8 years one differencing perimeter loss from net accumulation and one using a dense time series of time variable gravity we find excellent agreement between the two techniques for absolute mass loss and acceleration of mass loss in 2006 the greenland and antarctic ice sheets experienced a combined mass loss of 475 158 gt yr equivalent to 1 3 0 4 mm yr sea level rise notably the acceleration in ice sheet loss over the last 18 years was 21 9 1 gt yr2 for greenland and 14 5 2 gt yr2 for antarctica for a combined total of 36 3 2 gt yr2 this acceleration is 3 times larger than for mountain glaciers and ice caps 12 6 gt yr2 if this trend continues ice sheets will be the dominant contributor to sea level rise in the 21st century

an optimized estimate of glacial melt from the ross ice shelf using noble gases stable isotopes and cfc transient tracers 1 isotopes of helium and neon and the h218o h216o ratio of water are proven proxies for melt from glacial ice beneath floating ice shelves and at ice shelf fronts their high concentrations in glacial meltwater compared to other environmental sources make them ideal tracers for studies of the pathways of glacial meltwater from its origins into the ocean interior we combine noble gas and stable isotopes with temperature salinity and dissolved oxygen measurements from three cruises along the ross ice shelf during the austral summers of 1993 1994 and 1999 2000 and to the ross sea in 2000 2001 and use optimal multiparameter analysis to compute the water mass concentration including glacial meltwater the distribution of meltwater at the front of the ross ice shelf extended east from 180 w with the highest concentrations found near 165 w in both 1994 and 2000 the mean meltwater concentration at the ice shelf front was 2 0 0 33 in 1994 2 2 0 36 in 2000 and 0 25 0 1 in the western ross sea in 2001 water mass concentrations are used to correct for bias in the cfc age introduced by mixing with cfc free waters an effect revealed by comparing cfc age with transit time distribution curves the water residence time within the ice shelf cavity using cfcs and the mean meltwater concentration implies a basal melt rate of 33 50 km3 a 1

large multidecadal salinity trends near the pacific antarctic continental margin abstract ocean temperature and salinity measurements on and near the antarctic continental shelf in the southwest pacific sector are evaluated for evidence of temporal change shelf water in the southwest ross sea has declined in salinity by 0 03 decade 1 from 1958 to 2008 while its temperatures have increased in proportion to the influence of salinity on the sea surface freezing point modified deep water intrusions that reach the central ross ice shelf have freshened at a similar rate and cooled by 0 5 c since the late 1970s salinity has decreased by 0 08 decade 1 in the westward coastal and slope front currents consistent with increased melting of continental ice upstream in the amundsen sea overturning of those near surface waters during winter sea ice formation and mixing across the slope front is sufficient to account for the 5 decade shelf water salinity change a strong correlation between the freshening and change in the southern annular mode index suggests a link with the large scale atmosp

impact of antarctic ice shelf basal melting on sea ice and deep ocean properties 1 an approximation of antarctica s rocky and icy coastline normally forms the southern boundary in global climate models such a configuration neglects extensive ice shelf areas where ocean ice interaction initiates a net freshwater flux to the circumpolar continental shelf equal to 75 of the annual mean net precipitation in coastal seas the results of a numerical model for the southern ocean using two contrasting configurations with and without caverns beneath major antarctic ice shelves are compared they show that the freshwater flux due to deep basal melting significantly stabilizes the shelf water column in front of an ice shelf as well as downstream due to advection by the coastal current if the freshwater from the caverns is absent sea ice is thinner shelf waters are warmer and saltier and the southern ocean deep basins are flushed by denser waters

geographical variability of the first baroclinic rossby radius of deformation global 1 83 18 climatologies of the first baroclinic gravity wave phase speed c1 and the rossby radius of deformation l1 are computed from climatological average temperature and salinity profiles these new atlases are compared with previously published 5 83 58 coarse resolution maps of l1 for the northern hemisphere and the south atlantic and with a 1 83 18 fine resolution map of c1 for the tropical pacific it is concluded that the methods used in these earlier estimates yield values that are biased systematically low by 5 15 owing to seemingly minor computational errors geographical variations in the new high resolution maps of c1 and l1 are discussed in terms of a wkb approximation that elucidates the effects of earth rotation stratification and water depth on these quantities it is shown that the effects of temporal variations of the stratification can be neglected in the estimation of c1 and l1 at any particular location in the world ocean this is rationalized from consideration of the wkb approximation

circulation and melting beneath george vi ice shelf antarctica introduction george vi ice shelf sandwiched between the western coast of palmer land and the eastern coast of alexander island is the largest and most studied of the west antarctic peninsula ice shelves it covers an area of approximately 25 000 km2 and is underlain by circumpolar deep water cdw with temperatures in excess of 1oc giving rise to rapid basal melting bishop and walton 1981 lennon et al 1982 the maximum ice thickness of about 500 m occurs about 70 km from the southern ice front where a ridge of thick ice extends across george vi sound near 70ow see figure 1 effectively dividing the upper water column into northern and southern regions the northern ice front which faces marguerite bay appears to be near the geographical limit of ice shelf viability and has undergone a gradual retreat in recent decades lucchitta and rosanova 1998 a timeframe over which much of the nearby wordie ice shelf disintegrated doake and vaughan 1991 there is extensive surface melting over the northern parts of the ice shelf and much of the ice column near the northern ice front appears to be temperate paren and cooper 1986 conditions in the south where the ice front faces into ronne entrance are colder and the ice front position appears to be steady the vast majority of the flow into the ice shelf comes from palmer land but basal melting is sufficient to remove most of this so that the ice is derived almost exclusively from local accumulation by the time it reaches the ice fronts potter et al 1984 there is some evidence at the margins of the ice shelf to suggest that it may have disappeared completely during the early holocene before reforming sugden and clapperton 1981 bentley et al 2005

rapid freshening of antarctic bottom water formed in the indian and pacific oceans 1 repeat hydrographic sections occupied in 1995 and 2005 reveal a rapid decline in the salinity and density of antarctic bottom water throughout the australian antarctic basin the basin wide shift of the deep potential temperature salinity s relationship reflects freshening of both the indian and pacific sources of antarctic bottom water the s curves diverge for waters cooler than 0 1 c corresponding to a layer up to 1000 m thick over the antarctic continental slope and rise changes over the last decade are in the same direction but more rapid than those observed between the late 1960s and the 1990s when combined with recent observations of similar freshening of north atlantic deep water these results demonstrate that dense water formed in both hemispheres is freshening in response to changes in the high latitude freshwater balance and rapidly transmitting the signature of changes in surface climate into the deep ocean

melting of ice shelves and the mass balance of antarctica we calculate the present ice budget for antarctica from measurements of accumulation minus iceberg calving run off and in situ melting beneath the floating ice shelves the resulting negative mass balance of 469 gt year 1 differs substantially from other recent estimates but some components are subject to high temporal variability and budget uncertainties of 20 50 annual accumulation from an earlier review is adjusted to include the antarctic peninsula for a total of 2144 gt year 1 an iceberg production rate of 2016 gt year 1 is obtained from the volume of large icebergs calculated from satellite images since 1978 and from the results of an international iceberg census project ice shelf melting of 544 gt year 1 is derived from physical and geochemical observations of meltwater outflow glaciological field studies and modeling of the sub ice ocean circulation the highest melt rates occur near ice fronts and deep within sub ice cavities run off from the ice sheet surface and from beneath the grounded ice is taken to be 53 gt year 1 less than half of the negative mass balance need come from the grounded ice to account for the unattributed 0 45 mm year 1 in the ipcc best estimate of the recent global sea level rise

modeling water mass formation in the mertz glacier polynya and adelie depression east antarctica 1 high rates of sea ice growth and brine rejection in the mertz glacier polynya drive the production of dense continental shelf waters in the adelie depression we consider the rate of outflow of waters having sufficient density to sink into the neighboring abyssal ocean and form adelie land bottom water albw along with weddell and ross sea bottom waters the albw is an important source of antarctic bottom water the relevant processes are modeled using a variant of the max planck institute ocean model mpiom under daily ncep ncar reanalysis forcing for the period 1991 2000 the orthogonal curvilinear horizontal grid allows for the construction of a global domain with high resolution in our region of interest the modeled mertz glacier polynya is realistic in location and extent exhibiting low ice thickness 0 4 m and low ice fraction 50 the net surface ocean to atmosphere heat flux exceeds 200 w m2 and is dominated by sensible heat exchange in wintertime may through september inclusive 7 5 m of sea ice forms over the adelie depression at a rate of 4 9 cm d 1 this results in annual average volumetric production of 99 km3 of sea ice the associated brine release drives dense shelf water formation the off shelf flow of dense water exhibits strong interannual variability in response to variability in both atmospheric forcing and ocean preconditioning averaged over the period 1991 2000 the off shelf flow of dense water is 0 15 sv for a period of strong outflow 1993 1997 this increases to 0 24 sv most of the outflow occurs during july through october at a rate of 0 40 0 63 sv over the period 1991 2000 1993 1997 the peak mean monthly outflow can exceed 1 sv

helium a new tracer in antarctic oceanography the abyssal characteristics of the world oceans are strongly influenced by the northward propagation of antarctic bottom water aabw an important source of aabw is weddell sea bottom water wsbw which is formed in part on the continental slope of the southern weddell sea1 3 the formation of wsbw on the continental slope is related to the floating ice shelves of the southern weddell sea filchner ronne ice shelves western shelf water wsw is modified under the ice shelves by cooling and admixture of melt water to form ice shelf water isw and a substantial part of the isw flows over the sill that separates the filchner depression from the weddell sea and participates in the formation of wsbw4 5 the data reported here demonstrate that the water ice interaction leads to a strong 4he supersaturation of the isw due to dissolution of air entrapped in the ice shelf melt water the 4he supersaturation of the isw can be used as a tracer of this water mass and also influences the 4he balance of the wsbw

the distribution and formative processes of latent heat polynyas in east antarctica a study of polynya characteristics in east antarctica was undertaken using ice concentrations derived from special sensor microwave imager data for the period july 1987 august 1994 the areas of polynyas were defined as having an ice concentration 75 the analysis revealed a total of 28 coastal polynyas within the study region the spatial and temporal variability in areal extent was quantified the timing of mean maximum areal extent varied from june to october the bathymetry and wind regime at each polynya site was examined to gauge the relative importance of these parameters in polynya formation and maintenance in 20 locations shallow banks and shoals form grounding zones for icebergs and anchoring sites for fast ice which form barriers to the predominantly westward drift of the pack ice elsewhere north south coastal protrusions or alignments form similar barriers the subsequent removal of newly formed sea ice from the lee of such barriers by katabatic and synoptic winds maintains areas of reduced ice concentration and open water very few coastal polynyas are attributed solely to katabatic outflow the combined influence of bathymetry topography and winds is responsible for the characteristics of the majority of polynyas many were considered to be marginal characterised by occasional periods when the ice concentration falls below 75 an analysis of annual winter totals of areas with ice concentrations 75 shows no trends in total polynya areal extent over the period 1987 94 known locations of emperor penguin aptenodytes forsteri rookeries were also found to be associated with the locations of coastal polynyas

evidence of deep and bottom water formation in the western weddell sea abstract during ice station polarstern ispol r v polarstern cruise ant xxii 2 november 2004 january 2005 hydrographic and tracer observations were obtained in the western weddell sea while drifting closely in front of the larsen ice shelf these observations indicate recently formed weddell sea bottom water which contains significant contributions of glacial melt water in its upper part and high salinity shelf water in its lower layer the formation of this bottom water cannot be related to the known sources in the south the filchner ronne ice shelf we show that this bottom water is formed in the western weddell sea most likely in interaction with the larsen c ice shelf by applying an optimum multiparameter analysis omp using temperature salinity and noble gas observations helium isotopes and neon we obtained mean glacial melt water fractions of about 0 1 in the bottom water on sections across the weddell gyre farther north melt water fractions are still on the order of 0 04 using chlorofluorocarbons cfcs as age tracers we deduced a mean transit time between the western source and the bottom water found on the slope toward the north 9 3 years this transit time is larger and the inferred transport rate is small in comparison to previous findings but accounting for a loss of the initially formed bottom water volume due to mixing and renewal of weddell sea deep water a formation rate of 1 1 0 5 sv in the western weddell sea is plausible this implies a basal melt rate of 35 19 gt year or 0 35 0 19 m year at the larsen ice shelf this bottom water is shallow enough that it could leave the weddell basin through the gaps in the south scotia ridge to supply antarctic bottom water these findings emphasize the role of the western weddell sea in deep and bottom water formation particularly in view of changing environmental conditions due to climate variability which might induce enhanced melting or even decay of ice shelves

ice sheet grounding line dynamics steady states stability and hysteresis 1 the ice sheet ice shelf transition zone plays an important role in controlling marine ice sheet dynamics as it determines the rate at which ice flows out of the grounded part of the ice sheet together with accumulation this outflow is the main control on the mass balance of the grounded sheet in this paper we verify the results of a boundary layer theory for ice flux in the transition zone against numerical solutions that are able to resolve the transition zone very close agreement is obtained and grid refinement in the transition zone is identified as a critical component in obtaining reliable numerical results the boundary layer theory confirms that ice flux through the grounding line in a two dimensional sheet shelf system increases sharply with ice thickness at the grounding line this result is then applied to the large scale dynamics of a marine ice sheet our principal results are that 1 marine ice sheets do not exhibit neutral equilibrium but have well defined discrete equilibrium profiles 2 steady grounding lines cannot be stable on reverse bed slopes and 3 marine ice sheets with overdeepened beds can undergo hysteresis under variations in sea level accumulation rate basal slipperiness and ice viscosity this hysteretic behavior can in principle explain the retreat of the west antarctic ice sheet following the last glacial maximum and may play a role in the dynamics of heinrich events

the loma prieta earthquake of october 18 1989 results of teleseismic mantle and body wave inversion we present the results of an analysis of teleseismic mantle and body wave data observed on digital very broad band stations for the loma prieta earthquake of 10 18 1989 both datasets yield consistent mechanisms with first motion and geodetic measurements an interesting result of the mantle wave analysis is the realization of a special relation of the geographical position of this event its source mechanism and the upper mantle degree 2 heterogeneity bodywave modelling indicates that the mechanism may be a double shock and could correspond to partitioning of the fault into thrust and strike slip motion the available teleseismic data in the appropriate distance range are unfortunately not sufficient to lead to firm conclusions on this point which should be tested by local observations

modeling antarctic ice shelf responses to future climate changes and impacts on the ocean 1 we investigate basal melting of all antarctic ice shelves by a circumpolar ice shelf sea ice ocean coupled model and estimate the total basal melting of 770 944 gt yr under present day climate conditions we present a comparison of the basal melting with previous observational and modeling estimates for each ice shelf heat sources for basal melting are largely different among the ice shelves sensitivities of the basal melting to surface air warming and to enhanced westerly winds over the antarctic circumpolar current are investigated from a series of numerical experiments in this model the total basal melting strongly depends on the surface air warming but is hardly affected by the change of westerly winds the magnitude of the basal melting response to the warming varies widely from one ice shelf to another the largest response is found at ice shelves in the bellingshausen sea followed by those in the eastern weddell sea and the indian sector these increases of basal melting are caused by increases of circumpolar deep water and or antarctic surface water into ice shelf cavities by contrast basal melting of ice shelves in the ross and weddell seas is insensitive to the surface air warming because even in the warming experiments there is high sea ice production at the front of the ice shelves that keeps the water temperature to the surface freezing point weakening of the thermohaline circulation driven by antarctic dense water formation under warming climate conditions is enhanced by basal melting of ice shelves

a numerical model of the weddell sea large scale circulation and water mass distribution a circumpolar model for regional studies of the wind driven and thermohaline circulation of the southern ocean including the major sub ice shelf areas is described a first series of numerical experiments focusing on the weddell sea reveals a pronounced and persistent double cell structure of the weddell gyre with a maximum transport of 60 sv in agreement with observations experiments with artificial passive tracers point to the shallow shelf areas off the filchner ronne ice shelf as main locations for bottom water production the trajectories of lagrangian floats are used to determine the pathways and timescales of water mass spreading in the model in addition the effect of sub ice shelf forcing on the water mass characteristics is evaluated it is shown that water modified in the sub ice cavities contributes significantly to the deep and bottom water formation along the continental slope and affects the water mass characteristics throughout the weddell sea by increasing the stability of the near surface stratification and preventing deep convection

modeling thermodynamic ice ocean interactions at the base of an ice shelf abstract models of ocean circulation beneath ice shelves are driven primarily by the heat and freshwater fluxes that are associated with phase changes at the ice ocean boundary their behavior is therefore closely linked to the mathematical description of the interaction between ice and ocean that is included in the code an hierarchy of formulations that could be used to describe this interaction is presented the main difference between them is the treatment of turbulent transfer within the oceanic boundary layer the computed response to various levels of thermal driving and turbulent agitation in the mixed layer is discussed as is the effect of various treatments of the conductive heat flux into the ice shelf the performance of the different formulations that have been used in models of sub ice shelf circulation is assessed in comparison with observations of the turbulent heat flux beneath sea ice formulations that include an explicit parameterization of the oceanic boundary layer give results that

sea ice production and export from coastal polynyas in the weddell and ross seas 1 for 1992 2008 we use data from the special sensor microwave imager ssm i and the advanced microwave scanning radiometer eos amsr e to examine differences in ice production and export in the weddell and ross seas we find that the ross production is three times that in the weddell the ross export twice that in the weddell in the ross the ice production has a statistically significant positive trend of about 21 km3 y 1 and approximately equals the export while in the weddell the production trend is statistically flat and provides only about 60 of the export for each sea comparison of the ice production with the total winter sea ice volume shows that the weddell polynyas produce 5 10 of the total the ross polynyas 20 50 the explanation for these differences is that in the ross the low pressure system is better situated for generation of large polynyas than in the weddell

observations beneath pine island glacier in west antarctica and implications for its retreat thinning ice in west antarctica is currently contributing about 10 of the observed rise in global sea level observations obtained from an autonomous underwater vehicle operating beneath pine island glacier west antarctica reveal that the glacier was recently grounded on a transverse ridge in the sea floor but now warm sea water flows through the widening gap above the ridge thinning ice in west antarctica resulting from acceleration in the flow of outlet glaciers is at present contributing about 10 of the observed rise in global sea level1 pine island glacier in particular has shown nearly continuous acceleration2 3 and thinning4 5 throughout the short observational record the floating ice shelf that forms where the glacier reaches the coast has been thinning rapidly6 driven by changes in ocean heat transport beneath it as a result the line that separates grounded and floating ice has retreated inland7 these events have been postulated as the cause for the inland thinning and acceleration8 9 here we report evidence gathered by an autonomous underwater vehicle operating beneath the ice shelf that pine island glacier was recently grounded on a transverse ridge in the sea floor warm sea water now flows through a widening gap above the submarine ridge rapidly melting the thick ice of the newly formed upstream half of the ice shelf the present evolution of pine island glacier is thus part of a longer term trend that has moved the downstream limit of grounded ice inland by 30 km into water that is 300 m deeper than over the ridge crest the pace and ultimate extent of such potentially unstable retreat10 are central to the debate over the possibility of widespread ice sheet collapse triggered by climate change11 12

contribution of giant icebergs to the southern ocean freshwater flux 1 in the period 1979 2003 the mass of giant icebergs icebergs larger than 18 5 km in length calving from antarctica averaged 1089 300 gt yr 1 of ice under half the snow accumulation over the continent given by the intergovernmental panel on climate change 2246 86 gt yr 1 here we combine a database of iceberg tracks from the national ice center and a model of iceberg thermodynamics in order to estimate the amount and distribution of meltwater attributable to giant icebergs by comparing with published modeled meltwater distribution for smaller bergs we show that giant icebergs have a different melting pattern an estimated 35 of giant icebergs mass is exported north of 63 s versus 3 for smaller bergs although giant bergs spend more of the earlier part of their history nearer to the coast we combine both estimates to produce the first iceberg meltwater map that takes into account giant icebergs the average meltwater input is shown to exceed precipitation minus evaporation p e in certain areas and is a nonnegligible term in the balance of freshwater fluxes in the southern ocean the calving of giant icebergs is however episodic this might have implications for their impact on the freshwater budget of the ocean it is estimated that over the period 1987 2003 the meltwater flux in the weddell and ross seas has varied by at least 15 000 m3 s 1 over a month because of the potential sensitivity of the production of deep waters to abrupt changes in the freshwater budget variations in iceberg melt rates of this magnitude might be climatologically significant

modeling sea ice production and dense shelf water formation in coastal polynyas around east antarctica 1 using an ice ocean coupled model with fine horizontal resolution around east antarctica sea ice production and dense shelf water dsw formation in coastal polynyas are investigated the model reproduces well the locations of coastal polynyas and the high sea ice production there dsw is formed over the continental shelves under a number of coastal polynyas a threshold density beyond which net production of dsw takes place is largely different among coastal polynyas the densest and most vigorous dsw formation occurs in the cape darnley and mertz ninnis glacier polynyas followed by somewhat less but still significant dsw formation in the prydz barrier and vincennes polynyas assuming mixing of the dsw outflowing across the shelf break with typical modified circumpolar deep water over the continental slope the maximum possible formation rate of antarctic bottom water aabw is estimated to be 7 58 sv around east antarctica between 60 e and 150 e with the cape darnley and mertz ninnis glacier polynyas exhibiting the most active formation rates of 2 13 and 1 97 sv respectively from a series of numerical experiments it is found that the treatment of coastline and grounded icebergs has a large impact on both sea ice production and formation of dsw and aabw

simulations of temperature and turbulence structure of the oceanic boundary layer with the improved near surface process an improved model for the oceanic boundary layer is presented in view of the recent observation of the microstructure of the upper ocean including the high dissipation rate near the sea surface in the new model the surface boundary conditions for both the turbulent kinetic energy flux and the roughness length scale are modified the parameterization of stratification effects on turbulence is improved and the convective process is reformulated on the basis of the observation of uniform temperature and velocity profiles within the convective mixed layer evolutions of the profiles of both the dissipation rate and temperature of the observation data patches experiment as well as the time series of the sea surface temperature over the observation days are successfully simulated during a diurnal cycle for the first time it is also shown that the model reproduces various important features of the oceanic boundary layer for example the formation of a diurnal thermocline the profiles of buoyancy flux and the magnitudes of the buoyancy gradients both within the mixed layer and at the diurnal thermocline performance of the model is compared with that of the widely used mellor yamada model

ice shelf basal melting in a global finite element sea ice ice shelf ocean model the finite element sea ice ocean model fesom has been augmented by an ice shelf component with a three equation system for diagnostic computation of boundary layer temperature and salinity ice shelf geometry and global ocean bathymetry have been derived from the rtopo 1 dataset a global domain with a triangular mesh and a hybrid vertical coordinate is used to evaluate sub ice shelf circulation and melt rates for present day climate the model is forced with ncep reanalysis data basal mass fluxes are mostly realistic with maximum melt rates in the deepest parts near the grounding lines and marine ice formation in the northern sectors of ross ice shelf and filchner ronne ice shelf total basal mass loss for the ten largest ice shelves reflects the importance of the amundsen sea ice shelves getz ice shelf is shown to be a major melt water contributor to the southern ocean despite their modest melt rates the cold water ice shelves in the weddell sea are still substantial sinks of continental ice in antarctica discrepancies between the model and observations can partly be attributed to deficiencies in the forcing data or to sometimes unavoidable smoothing of ice shelf and bottom topographies

mapping of sea ice production for antarctic coastal polynyas 1 active sea ice production in antarctic coastal polynyas causes dense water formation finally leading to antarctic bottom water aabw formation this study gives the first mapping of sea ice production in the antarctic ocean based on heat flux calculation with ice thickness data derived from satellite data the highest ice production occurs in the ross ice shelf polynya region the ice production there decreased by 30 from the 1990s to the 2000s which can be one candidate for causing the recent freshening of aabw the cape darnley polynya in east antarctica is found to be the second highest production area suggesting a possible aabw formation area according to our estimation around 10 of southern ocean sea ice is produced in the major antarctic coastal polynyas the mapping provides surface heat and salt flux conditions in the ice covered region which have not been well understood

pathways of basal meltwater from antarctic ice shelves a model study we investigate spreading pathways of basal meltwater released from all antarctic ice shelves using a circumpolar coupled ice shelf sea ice ocean model that reproduces major features of the southern ocean circulation including the antarctic circumpolar current acc several independent virtual tracers are used to identify detailed pathways of basal meltwaters the spreading pathways of the meltwater tracers depend on formation sites because the meltwaters are transported by local ambient ocean circulation meltwaters from ice shelves in the weddell and amundsen bellingshausen seas in surface subsurface layers are effectively advected to lower latitudes with the acc although a large portion of the basal meltwaters is present in surface and subsurface layers a part of the basal meltwaters penetrates into the bottom layer through active dense water formation along the antarctic coastal margins the signals at the seafloor extend along the topography showing a horizontal distribution similar to the observed spreading of antarctic bottom water meltwaters originating from ice shelves in the weddell and ross seas and in the indian sector significantly contribute to the bottom signals a series of numerical experiments in which thermodynamic interaction between the ice shelf and ocean is neglected regionally demonstrates that the basal meltwater of each ice shelf impacts sea ice and or ocean thermohaline circulation in the southern ocean

strong export of antarctic bottom water east of the kerguelen plateau deep western boundary currents east of the antarctic peninsula and the kerguelen plateau are important pathways for transporting deep antarctic water masses to the global ocean an array of moored current meters used to quantify the water transport in this system reveals a flow that is stronger than any measured in a deep western boundary current at similar depths so far the primary paths for the transport of antarctic bottom water from the southern ocean into the global ocean are the deep western boundary currents east of the antarctic peninsula and the kerguelen plateau1 previous ship based observations documented distinct water properties and velocities associated with a deep western boundary current in the kerguelen region2 3 4 5 6 7 but the mean flow is as yet unconstrained here we report measurements from a coherent array of eight current meter moorings that reveal a narrow and intense equatorward flow extending throughout the water column just east of the kerguelen plateau velocities averaged over two years exceed 20 cm s 1 at depths of about 3 500 m the strongest mean deep western boundary current flow yet observed at similar depths we estimate the mean equatorward transport of water colder than 0 c at 12 3 1 2 106 m3 s 1 partially compensated by poleward flow we also estimate the net equatorward flow of water colder than 0 2 c at about 8 106 m3 s 1 substantially higher than the 1 9 106 m3 s 1 reported from the boundary current that carries dense water from the weddell sea into the atlantic ocean north of the falkland plateau8 we conclude that the kerguelen deep western boundary current is a significant pathway of the global ocean s deep overturning circulation

antarctic ice sheet loss driven by basal melting of ice shelves accurate prediction of global sea level rise requires that we understand the cause of recent widespread and intensifying glacier acceleration along antarctic ice sheet coastal margins atmospheric and oceanic forcing have the potential to reduce the thickness and extent of floating ice shelves potentially limiting their ability to buttress the flow of grounded tributary glaciers indeed recent ice shelf collapse led to retreat and acceleration of several glaciers on the antarctic peninsula but the extent and magnitude of ice shelf thickness change the underlying causes of such change and its link to glacier flow rate are so poorly understood that its future impact on the ice sheets cannot yet be predicted here we use satellite laser altimetry and modelling of the surface firn layer to reveal the circum antarctic pattern of ice shelf thinning through increased basal melt we deduce that this increased melt is the primary control of antarctic ice sheet loss through a reduction in buttressing of the adjacent ice sheet leading to accelerated glacier flow the highest thinning rates occur where warm water at depth can access thick ice shelves via submarine troughs crossing the continental shelf wind forcing could explain the dominant patterns of both basal melting and the surface melting and collapse of antarctic ice shelves through ocean upwelling in the amundsen and bellingshausen seas and atmospheric warming on the antarctic peninsula this implies that climate forcing through changing winds influences antarctic ice sheet mass balance and hence global sea level on annual to decadal timescales

stronger ocean circulation and increased melting under pine island glacier ice shelf the ice shelf buttressing antarctica s pine island glacier has been melting rapidly observations taken between 1994 and 2009 show that meltwater production has increased by about 50 since 1994 as a result of a stronger circulation below the ice shelf

crustal conductors along the sveka profile in the fennoscandian baltic shield finland summary electrical properties of the crust in the central fennoscandian baltic shield are examined along the 435 km magnetotelluric profile sveka a 2 d geoelectric model shows large variations in the crustal resistivity with the model resistivities ranging from 0 1 to 35 000 m the main geoelectrical features of the crust and upper mantle are 1 a resistive archaean lower crust conductance 30 s 2 a conductive palaeoproterozoic lower crust beneath the central finland granitoid complex 170 900s free h2o rich fluids trapped into the lower crust seem less plausible causes for enhanced conductivity as long retention times are required and no possible sources seem to be available to produce fluids into the dry lower crust most likely causes for permanent enhancement of lower crustal conductivity include the conductive fill of ductile shear zones conductive graphite bearing lamellae conduction in mafic rocks perhaps via conduction in magnetite or conductive solid remnants of an ancient shear zone between two crustal blocks thin graphitic grain boundary films precipitated from co2 rich fluids also seem less plausible 3 a very resistive 10 000 35 000 m upper crust of the palaeoproterozoic central finland granitoid complex and the archaean domain 4 narrow and elongated conductors 0 1 100 m beneath the palaeoproterozoic kainuu ksb and tampere tsb schist belts are caused by graphite bearing metasedimentary rocks buried deep into the crust in the collisions of crustal terranes during the formation of the palaeoproterozoic svecofennian crust the 500 km long tsb conductor represents an internal svecofennian terrane boundary whereas the ksb conductor is a part of a discontinuous archaean proterozoic boundary conductor 5 resistive upper mantle there are no indications of an upper mantle conducting layer within the uppermost 300 km in the central part of the fennoscandian shield

important role for ocean warming and increased ice shelf melt in antarctic sea ice expansion changes in sea ice significantly modulate climate change because of its high reflective and strong insulating nature in contrast to arctic sea ice sea ice surrounding antarctica has expanded1 with record extent2 in 2010 this ice expansion has previously been attributed to dynamical atmospheric changes that induce atmospheric cooling3 here we show that accelerated basal melting of antarctic ice shelves is likely to have contributed significantly to sea ice expansion specifically we present observations indicating that melt water from antarctica s ice shelves accumulates in a cool and fresh surface layer that shields the surface ocean from the warmer deeper waters that are melting the ice shelves simulating these processes in a coupled climate model we find that cool and fresh surface water from ice shelf melt indeed leads to expanding sea ice in austral autumn and winter this powerful negative feedback counteracts southern hemispheric atmospheric warming although changes in atmospheric dynamics most likely govern regional sea ice trends4 our analyses indicate that the overall sea ice trend is dominated by increased ice shelf melt we suggest that cool sea surface temperatures around antarctica could offset projected snowfall increases in antarctica with implications for estimates of future sea level rise

oxygen 18 and helium as tracers of ice shelf water and water ice interaction in the weddell sea oxygen 18 and helium isotope data from stations located in the filchner depression on the continental slope of the southern weddell sea and in the central weddell sea are presented and discussed the 18o and 4he signals imprinted on the water circulating under the filchner ronne ice shelf ice shelf water or isw due to melting of glacial ice at the base of the ice shelf are traced across the sill separating the filchner depression from the weddell sea low 18o values are correlated with high 4he concentrations in the isw found in the filchner depression minimum 18o values 0 8 maximum 4he concentrations about 4 7 10 8 cm3 stp g 1 the fraction of glacial meltwater contained in the isw found in the filchner depression is estimated to about 6 to 7 the 18o and helium isotope data from the overflowing shelf water component observed on the continental slope confirm the hypothesis that isw contributes significantly to the weddell sea bottom water wsbw on the basis of a inultiparameter water mass analysis it is discussed which fraction of the wsbw originates from isw and which other shelf waters potentially could contribute to wsbw

calving fluxes and basal melt rates of antarctic ice shelves iceberg calving has been assumed to be the dominant cause of mass loss for the antarctic ice sheet with previous estimates of the calving flux exceeding 2 000 gigatonnes per year1 2 more recently the importance of melting by the ocean has been demonstrated close to the grounding line and near the calving front3 4 5 so far however no study has reliably quantified the calving flux and the basal mass balance the balance between accretion and ablation at the ice shelf base for the whole of antarctica the distribution of fresh water in the southern ocean and its partitioning between the liquid and solid phases is therefore poorly constrained here we estimate the mass balance components for all ice shelves in antarctica using satellite measurements of calving flux and grounding line flux modelled ice shelf snow accumulation rates6 and a regional scaling that accounts for unsurveyed areas we obtain a total calving flux of 1 321 144 gigatonnes per year and a total basal mass balance of 1 454 174 gigatonnes per year this means that about half of the ice sheet surface mass gain is lost through oceanic erosion before reaching the ice front and the calving flux is about 34 per cent less than previous estimates derived from iceberg tracking1 2 7 in addition the fraction of mass loss due to basal processes varies from about 10 to 90 per cent between ice shelves we find a significant positive correlation between basal mass loss and surface elevation change for ice shelves experiencing surface lowering8 and enhanced discharge9 we suggest that basal mass loss is a valuable metric for predicting future ice shelf vulnerability to oceanic forcing

linear trends in salinity for the world ocean 1955 1998 1 quality controlled oceanographic profile salinity measurements from the world ocean database 2001 wod01 were used to calculate linear trends of zonally averaged salinity anomalies for running five year periods from 1955 1959 through 1994 1998 for the world ocean and the atlantic pacific and indian ocean basins from the surface to 3000 meters depth each basin exhibits large scale coherent trends most of the pacific is freshening with the exception of the subtropical south pacific the atlantic exhibits a deep freshening in the subpolar gyre and a shallower more intense increase in salinity in the tropics and subtropics the indian ocean is becoming more saline at all latitudes in the upper 150 meter layer with a subsurface freshening between 40 s and the equator in the 250 1000 meter layer there is freshening in both the weddell and ross seas

antarctic bottom water production by intense sea ice formation in the cape darnley polynya antarctic bottom water fills much of the global abyssal ocean and is known to form in three main sites in the southern ocean data from instrumented elephant seals and moorings suggest an additional source of bottom water formation in the cape darnley polynya that is driven by sea ice production

the link between climate warming and break up of ice shelves in the antarctic peninsula a review of in situ and remote sensing data covering the ice shelves of the antarctic peninsula provides a series of characteristics closely associated with rapid shelf retreat deeply embayed ice fronts calving of myriad small elongate bergs in punctuated events increasing flow speed and the presence of melt ponds on the ice shelf surface in the vicinity of the break ups as climate has warmed in the antarctic peninsula region melt season duration and the extent of ponding have increased most break up events have occurred during longer melt seasons suggesting that meltwater itself not just warming is responsible regions that show melting without pond formation are relatively unchanged melt ponds thus appear to be a robust harbinger of ice shelf retreat we use these observations to guide a model of ice shelf flow and the effects of meltwater crevasses present in a region of surface ponding will likely fill to the brim with water we hypothesize building on weertman 1973 hughes 1983 and van der veen 1998 that crevasse propagation by meltwater is the main mechanism by which ice shelves weaken and retreat a thermodynamic finite element model is used to evaluate ice flow and the strain field and simple extensions of this model are used to investigate crack propagation by meltwater the model results support the hypothesis