long range triggered earthquakes that continue after the wave train passes 1 large earthquakes can trigger distant earthquakes in geothermal areas some triggered earthquakes happen while the surface waves pass through a site but others occur hours or even days later does this prolonged seismicity require a special mechanism to store the stress from the seismic waves that differs from ordinary aftershock mechanisms these questions have driven studies of long range triggering since the phenomenon s discovery here i attempt to answer the questions by examining the statistics of triggered sequences two separate observations are consistent with the prolonged sequences being simply local aftershocks of earthquakes triggered early in the wave train first the sequences obey omori s law over both short 1 hour and longer 5 day time intervals secondly the number of observed triggered earthquakes in the first hour after the wave train can be predicted from the number of earthquakes triggered during the wave train even the very vigorous 10 day triggering at long valley from the 1992 landers mw 7 3 earthquakes can be interpreted as the aftershocks of either a local m 4 1 earthquake or an equivalent combination of several smaller mainshocks therefore long range triggering does not need to include a mechanism to produce sustained stresses other than the process that generates aftershocks of the earthquakes that occur while the wave train is passing

cryogenic carbonates in cave environments a review abstract cryogenic cave carbonate ccc represents a specific type of speleothem its precipitation proceeds at the freezing point and is triggered by freezing induced concentration of solutes compared to classical speleothems stalagmites flowstones ccc occurs as accumulations of loose uncemented aggregates the grain sizes range from less than 1 m to over 1 cm in diameter karst groundwater chemistry and its freezing rate upon entering the cave are responsible for highly variable grain morphology rapid freezing of water results in the formation of ccc powders with grain size typically below 50 m slow freezing of water in caves usually in systems where the co2 escape is partly restricted e g ice covered water pools results in the formation of large mineral grains with sizes from less than 1 mm to about 20 mm the range of carbon and oxygen stable isotope compositions of ccc is larger than for a typical carbonate speleothem rapid freezing of water accompanied by a quick kinetic co2 degassing results in large ranges of 13c of the ccc powders between 10 and 18 pdb slow freezing of water with a restricted co2 escape results in gradual increase of 13c values from 9 to 6 pdb data ranges in individual caves are usually much more restricted accompanied by a 18o decrease of the precipitated carbonate overall range from 10 to 24 pdb these unusual trends of the carbonate 18o evolution reflect incorporation of the heavier 18o isotope into the formed ice new isotope data on ccc from three romanian ice caves allow better understanding of the carbon and oxygen isotope fingerprint in carbonates precipitated from freezing of bulk water cccs are proposed as a new genetic group of speleothems

complexity of the deep san andreas fault zone defined by cascading tremor seismic tremors can be used to distinguish plate boundaries analysis of tremors occurring deep beneath the san andreas fault may identify the boundary between the north american plate and the preserved remnant of a subducted slab

postseismic variations in seismic moment and recurrence interval of repeating earthquakes in laboratory experiments longer stationary contact time leads to larger seismic moment during repeated ruptures however not all observations in natural fault systems agree with the prediction we analyze a subset of 34 m 0 4 2 1 repeating earthquake sequences res from 1987 to 2009 at parkfield to examine the variation of their recurrence properties in space and time following a 2004 m6 earthquake many of the repeating events have greatly reduced recurrence intervals tr that systematically increase with time in addition to this change in timing we also find systematic changes in seismic moment mo where most sequences experienced an immediate increase in mo and subsequent decay as tr approached pre quake durations the res at shallower depth tend to have a larger range in both tr and mo whereas deeper res show smaller variation the shallowest res with the greatest magnitude m1 8 2 1 among the events we studied reveal a large variation in tr but small variation in mo these observations are qualitatively consistent with earthquake simulations in 3d continuum fault models with rate and state dependent friction in the models res are produced on velocity weakening patches surrounded by velocity strengthening fault areas the models show that the degree of postseismic variation in mo and tr is a function of radius r and nucleation zone size h of the velocity weakening patch a ratio of r h 1 produces negative mo tr slopes whereas larger ratios of r h yield weak positive slopes given the same nucleation size h i e the same frictional properties and effective normal stress smaller radii and hence smaller seismic moments result in negative mo tr slopes whereas larger radii and hence larger moments lead to weak positive mo tr slopes which are consistent with observations conversely with only a small percentage of its slip accumulated seismically a small asperity appears to grow in mo under high loading rate which is contrary to the view that mo should decrease due to a reduced strength recovery time

cryogenic cave calcite from several central european caves age carbon and oxygen isotopes and a genetic model abstract cryogenic cave calcite ccc formed by segregation of solutes during water freezing was found in three central european caves this calcite type forms accumulations of loose calcite grains on cave floor the calcite grains are of highly variable crystal morphology and of sizes ranging from less than 1 mm to over 1 cm the most typical feature is their accumulation as loose uncemented crystals u series dating indicates the formation of ccc in the studied caves during several climatic oscillations of the weichselian between 61 and 36 ka bp in the chelsiowa jama jaskinia jaworznicka cave system in poland between 34 and 26 ka bp in the buml cave in the czech republic and between 26 and 21 ka bp in the stratenska jasky a cave system slovakia at the time of ccc formation the studied caves were lying in a periglacial zone detailed c and o stable isotope study of ccc samples revealed that slow water freezing under isotope equilibrium was the dominant formational process in the studied polish and czech caves significantly higher 13 c values of ccc in the stratenska jasky a cave indicate either water freezing in a more opened system with continuous co 2 escape rayleigh fractional separation or participation of another co 2 source the model of slow water freezing under isotope equilibrium is supported by isolated character of the caves having limited ventilation in contrast modern cryogenic cave calcite powders sampled directly on the ice surface of two recently iced caves in slovakia with high ventilation showed much higher 18 o and 13 c data similar to cryogenic calcites obtained in experimental rapid water freezing

thirty five year creep rates for the creeping segment of the san andreas fault and the effects of the 2004 parkfield earthquake constraints from alignment arrays continuous global positioning system and creepmeters we present results from differential global positioning system gps surveys of seven alignment arrays and four continuous gps sites along the creeping segment of the san andreas fault surveys of four alignment arrays from the central creeping segment yield 33 to 36 year average minimum slip rates of 21 26 mm yr these rates are consistent with previous alignment array surveys spanning a 10 year period and with rates determined by creepmeters indicating approximate steady state creep along the central creeping segment for at least 35 years motion between continuous gps sites that span the central creeping segment is 28 2 0 5 mm yr for two sites that are 1 km apart and 33 6 1 mm yr for two sites that are 70 km apart slip rates therefore increase with distance from the creeping segment of the san andreas fault all rates reported here are significantly slower than the 39 2 mm yr rate predicted for motion between the sierra nevada great valley block and the pacific plate repeat surveys of three alignment arrays following the 2004 parkfield earthquake demonstrate that its coseismic and short term postseismic offsets decrease rapidly with distance from the epicenter from 150 mm to 15 mm to 5 mm at respective distances of 9 36 and 54 km to the northwest continuous gps data confirm that little coseismic and postseismic slip occurred along the central creeping segment geodetic and geologic slip rates are compared and different models for the accommodation of transcurrent deformation across the creeping segment are discussed

under the hood of the earthquake machine toward predictive modeling of the seismic cycle advances in observational laboratory and modeling techniques open the way to the development of physical models of the seismic cycle with potentially predictive power to explore that possibility we developed an integrative and fully dynamic model of the parkfield segment of the san andreas fault the model succeeds in reproducing a realistic earthquake sequence of irregular moment magnitude m w 6 0 main shocks including events similar to the ones in 1966 and 2004 and provides an excellent match for the detailed interseismic coseismic and postseismic observations collected along this fault during the most recent earthquake cycle such calibrated physical models provide new ways to assess seismic hazards and forecast seismicity response to perturbations of natural or anthropogenic origins

modelling instantaneous dynamic triggering in a 3 d fault system application to the 2000 june south iceland seismic sequence summary we present a model of seismogenesis on an extended 3 d fault subject to the external perturba tions of coseismic stress changes due to an earthquake occurring on another fault the causative fault as an application we consider the spatio temporal stress redistribution produced on the hvalhnukur fault by the m s 6 6 2000 june 17 mainshock in the south iceland seismic zone sisz the latter is located nearly 64 km from the causative fault and failed 26 s after the main shock with an estimated magnitude m w 5 25 0 25 providing an example of instantaneous dynamic triggering the stress perturbations are computed by means of a discrete wavenumber and reflectivity code the response of the perturbed fault is then analysed solving the truly 3 d fully dynamic or spontaneous problem accounting for crustal stratification in a previous study the response of the hvalhnukur fault was analysed by using a spring slider fault model ss fault model comparing the estimated perturbed failure time with the observed origin time in addition to the perturbed failure time this model can provide numerical estimates of many other dynamic features of the triggered event which can be compared with available observations the rupture history of the whole fault plane its final extent and the seismic mo ment of the induced event we show the key differences existing between a mass spring model and this extended fault model in particular we show the essential role of the load exerted by the neighbouring slipping points of the fault by considering both rate and state dependent laws and non linear slip dependent law we show how the dynamics of the 26 s fault strongly depend on the assumed constitutive law and initial stress conditions in the case of rate and state dependent friction laws assuming an initial effective normal stress distribution that is suitable for the sisz and consistent with previously stated conditions of instantaneous dynamic triggering of the hvalhnukur fault we obtain results in general agreement with observations

patterning mechanisms in subglacial carbonate dissolution and deposition deglaciated bedrock surfaces in limestone areas often exhibit extensive patterning by solutional furrows and carbonate deposits that occur in close association with undulations in the bed topography these features clearly result from subglacial dissolution and precipitation of calcite on the bed induced for instance by melting and freezing in a regelation water film but little is known about the observed morphology in particular it is intriguing that i the solutional furrows whose formation requires explanation are collectively organized into arcuate patterns with characteristic spacing and ii a fluted or spiculed surface texture is ubiquitous on the calcite deposits herein we propose specific mechanisms for such patterning based on a theory where chemical processes in the water film are coupled to regelation physics solutional furrows reflect locally enhanced dissolution along stoss surfaces where co 2 rich bubbles advected in the ice from up glacier come into contact with the bed the bubbles form as co 2 is exsolved from freezing film water at the lee of bed bumps the flutings on the deposit are inherently the manifestation of a spatial instability at the interface where calcite precipitation occurs complex interactions underlie some of the striking glacier bed features shaped by subglacial chemical processes

streaks multiplets and holes high resolution spatio temporal behavior of parkfield seismicity 1 double difference locations of 8000 earthquakes from 1969 2002 on the parkfield section of the san andreas fault reveal detailed fault structures and seismicity that is although complex highly organized in both space and time distinctive features of the seismicity include 1 multiple recurrence of earthquakes of the same size at precisely the same location on the fault multiplets implying frictional or geometric controls on their location and size 2 sub horizontal alignments of hypocenters along the fault plane streaks suggestive of rheological transitions within the fault zone and or stress concentrations between locked and creeping areas 3 regions devoid of microearthquakes with typical dimensions of 1 5 km holes one of which contains the m6 1966 parkfield earthquake hypocenter these features represent long lived structures that persist through many cycles of individual events

subglacially precipitated carbonates record geochemical interactions and pollen preservation at the base of the laurentide ice sheet on central baffin island eastern canadian arctic the mineralogy and isotopic compositions of subglacially precipitated carbonate crusts spccs provide information on conditions and processes beneath former glaciers and ice sheets here we describe spccs formed on gneissic bedrock at the bed of the laurentide ice sheet lis during the last glacial maximum on central baffin island geochemical data indicate that the ca in the crusts was likely derived from the subglacial chemical weathering ca bearing minerals in the local bedrock c and sr isotopic analyses reveal that the c in the calcite was derived predominantly from older plant debris the 18o values of the spccs suggest that these crusts formed in isotopic equilibrium with basal ice lis preserved in the barnes ice cap bic columnar crystal fabric and the predominance of sparite over micrite in the spccs are indicative of carbonate precipitation under open system conditions however the mean 18o value of the calcite crusts is 10 higher than those of primary lis ice preserved in the bic demonstrating that spccs record the isotopic composition of only basal ice palynomorph assemblages preserved within the calcite and basal bic ice include species last endemic to the arctic in the early tertiary the source of these palynomorphs remains enigmatic

the role of dissolution kinetics in the development of karst aquifers in limestone a model simulation of karst evolution to model the development of karst aquifers from primary fissures in limestone rock a numerical model of solutional widening of such fractures by calcite agressive water is suggested the geological setting determines relevant geometrical parameters i e length of the fracture its initial width and the hydraulic gradient driving water from the input to the output to simulate the solutional widening as it proceeds in time the solution rates must be known as a function of concentration c of dissolved calcite they are given as a first order kinetic rate law for c leq k cdot c eq as f 1 alpha 0 c c eq for c k cdot c eq close to equilibrium a fourth order rate law becomes dominant f 4 beta cdot c c eq 4 the parameters alpha 0 beta and k depend on the chemistry of the carbonate system and rock chemistry the saturation concentration c eq with respect to calcite depends on the initial co 2 concentration of the inflowing solution

average stress drops of southern california earthquakes in the context of crustal geophysics implications for fault zone healing to understand how fault healing processes affect earthquake stress drops we search for a possible dependency of stress drops on crustal conditions and geophysical parameters we reanalyze the stress drop values of 60 000 earthquakes in southern california which were originally determined by sheareret al j geophys res 111 b06303 2006 using a spectral method we modify the dataset to include only stress drops that are derived from at least 10 spectra and with corner frequencies between 3 and 30 hz and correct the rupture velocity for increasing s wave speed with depth we see no dependence of stress drop on moment magnitude or depth except for a small poorly determined increase from 15 to 25 km we use six crustal geophysics parameters to search for obvious correlations that may explain changes in the mean values of the stress drops 1 crustal thickness 2 isostatic gravity 3 heat flow 4 shear strain rate 5 crustal stress regime and 6 style of faulting none of the variables reduce the scatter but most can explain up to 10 20 variations in the mean stress drops the geographical distribution of the grouped mean stress drops includes very high stress drops near ridgecrest eastern california as well as near fault jogs within the san andreas fault system low stress drops dominate in trans tensional regions heat flow and gps based shear strain rate estimates have the largest influence on stress drop variations in the range of low to medium heat flow the stress drops increase with increasing heat flow in contrast at high heat flow in thin crust the stress drops decrease systematically with increasing heat flow increasing shear strain rate systematically correlates with decreasing stress drops the crustal stress regime and style of faulting also influence the stress drops as demonstrated by lower stress drops for north northeast trending principal horizontal stress and in areas of dip slip faulting the mean variations in stress drops with heat flow stress regime crustal thickness and density can be explained in the context of fault healing grain boundary growth and corresponding increase in fault zone strength on time scales modulated by the tectonic shear strain rate

spatial and temporal evolution of stress and slip rate during the 2000 tokai slow earthquake 1 we investigate an ongoing silent thrust event in the tokai seismic gap along the suruga nankai trough central japan prior to the event continuous gps data from april 1996 to the end of 1999 show that this region displaced 2 cm yr to the northwest relative to the landward plate the gps time series show an abrupt change in rate in mid june 2000 that continues as of mid 2005 we model this transient deformation which we refer to as the tokai slow thrust slip event as caused by slip on the interface between the philippine sea and amurian plates the spatial and temporal distribution of slip rate is estimated with kalman filter based inversion methods our inversions reveal two slow subevents the first initiated in late june 2000 slightly before the miyake jima eruption the locus of slip then propagated southeast in the second half of 2000 with maximum slip rates of about 15 cm yr through 2001 a second locus of slip initiated to the northeast in early 2001 the depth of the slip zone is about 25 km which may correspond to the transition zone from a seismogenic to a freely sliding zone the cumulative moment magnitude of the slow slip event up to november 2002 is mw 6 8 we calculate shear stress changes on the plate interface from the slip histories stress change as a function of slip rate shows trajectories similar to that inferred for high speed ruptures however the maximum velocity is 8 orders of magnitude less than in normal earthquakes

variations in rupture process with recurrence interval in a repeated small earthquake in theory and in laboratory experiments friction on sliding surfaces such as rock glass and metal increases with time since the previous episode of slip1 this time dependence is a central pillar of the friction laws widely used to model earthquake phenomena2 3 on natural faults other properties such as rupture velocity4 5 porosity and fluid pressure6 11 may also vary with the recurrence interval eighteen repetitions of the same small earthquake separated by intervals ranging from a few days to several years allow us to test these laboratory predictions in situ the events with the longest time since the previous earthquake tend to have about 15 larger seismic moment than those with the shortest intervals although this trend is weak in addition the rupture durations of the events with the longest recurrence intervals are more than a factor of two shorter than for the events with the shortest intervals both decreased duration and increased friction are consistent with progressive fault healing during the time of stationary contact

bedrock surface roughness and the distribution of subglacially precipitated carbonate deposits implications for formation at glacier de tsanfleuron switzerland two carbonate deposits are identified on the exposed bedrock surface in the forefield of glacier de tsanfleuron switzerland macrocrystalline sparite and microcrystalline micrite comparison of the distributions of these forms with lee side slope facets identified by high pass filtering of a flow parallel bedrock profile at a range of frequencies reveals two significant results first while the distribution of sparite is consistent with formation in the lee side of subglacial bedrock hummocks that of micrite is not this contrasts with previous investigations in which both sparite and micrite have been considered to form by mineral concentration and precipitation during the refreezing of regelation related basal meltwaters in the lee side of bedrock hummocks alternative mechanisms of micrite formation involving carbonate deposition and or precipitation within subglacial bedrock hollows are proposed second the distribution of sparite is most strongly correlated with the distribution of lee side slope facets identified by filtering at a frequency equivalent to a hummock wavelength of c 0 1 m this correspondence indicates empirically that pressure related melting and refreezing regelation operates most effectively around bedrock hummocks that are shorter than c 0 1 m 1998 john wiley sons ltd

delayed triggering of the 1999 hector mine earthquake by viscoelastic stress transfer stress changes in the crust due to an earthquake can hasten the failure of neighbouring faults and induce earthquake sequences in some cases1 2 3 4 5 the 1999 hector mine earthquake in southern california magnitude 7 1 occurred only 20 km from and 7 years after the 1992 landers earthquake magnitude 7 3 this suggests that the hector mine earthquake was triggered in some fashion by the earlier event but uncertainties in the slip distribution and rock friction properties associated with the landers earthquake have led to widely varying estimates of both the magnitude and sign of the resulting stress change that would be induced at the location of the hector mine hypocentre with estimates varying from 1 4 bar ref 6 to 0 5 bar ref 7 more importantly coseismic stress changes alone cannot satisfactorily explain the delay of 7 years between the two events here we present the results of a three dimensional viscoelastic model that simulates stress transfer from the ductile lower crust and upper mantle to the brittle upper crust in the 7 years following the landers earthquake using viscoelastic parameters that can reproduce the observed horizontal surface deformation following the landers earthquake our calculations suggest that lower crustal or upper mantle flow can lead to postseismic stress increases of up to 1 2 bar at the location of the hector mine hypocentre during this time period contributing to the eventual occurrence of the 1999 hector mine earthquake these results attest to the importance of considering viscoelastic processes in the assessment of seismic hazard8 9 10 11

postseismic relaxation driven by brittle creep a possible mechanism to reconcile geodetic measurements and the decay rate of aftershocks application to the chi chi earthquake taiwan we evaluate the effect of coseismic stress changes on the fault slip at midcrustal depth assuming a velocity strengthening brittle creep rheology we show that this model can help reconcile the time evolution of afterslip as measured from geodesy with aftershocks decay we propose an analytical expression for slip of the brittle creeping fault zone bcfz that applies to any dynamic or static stress perturbation including shear stress and normal stress changes the model predicts an initial logarithmic increase of slip with time postseismic slip rate decays over a characteristic time t r a that does not depend on the amplitude of the stress perturbation and it asymptotically joins the long term creep imposed by interseismic stress buildup given that the seismicity rate might be considered proportional to the sliding velocity of the bcfz the model predicts a decay rate of aftershocks that follows omori s law with a mathematical formalism identical to that of dieterich 1994 although based on a different mechanical rationale our model also differs from dieterich s model in that it requires that aftershock sequences and deep afterslip as constrained from geodetic measurements should follow the same temporal evolution we test this for the 1999 chi chi earthquake m w 7 6 and find that both sets of data are consistent with a model of afterslip due to the response of the bcfz the inferred relaxation time t r 8 5 years requires a value for a log v being the coefficient of friction in the range between 1 3 10 3 and 10 2

towards a universal rule on the recurrence interval scaling of repeating earthquakes 1 a recent analysis of recurrence properties of small repeating earthquakes on a creeping oblique thrust fault in eastern taiwan reveals a weak variation in recurrence interval tr with seismic moment mo compared to the scaling of tr with mo from repeating earthquake data near parkfield in california the repeating data from eastern taiwan has recurrence intervals that are 2 times shorter also in northeastern japan tr of repeating quakes are 4 times shorter than those expected from the parkfield scaling law when adjusted to account for differences in the geodetically derived slip rates for the three fault zones however the tr mo scaling is remarkably consistent among the three regions it suggests that the tectonic loading rate is likely the most important factor that controls the repeat time it also suggests that there seems to exist a universal rule on recurrence interval scaling of repeating earthquakes in diverse tectonic settings

triggering of earthquake aftershocks by dynamic stresses it is thought that small static stress changes due to permanent fault displacement can alter the likelihood of or trigger earthquakes on nearby faults many studies of triggering in the near field particularly of aftershocks rely on these static changes as the triggering agent and consider them only in terms of equivalent changes in the applied load on the fault here we report a comparison of the aftershock pattern of the moment magnitude mw 7 3 landers earthquake not only with static stress changes but also with transient oscillatory stress changes transmitted as seismic waves that is dynamic stresses dynamic stresses do not permanently change the applied load and thus can trigger earthquakes only by altering the mechanical state or properties of the fault zone these dynamically weakened faults may fail after the seismic waves have passed by and might even cause earthquakes that would not otherwise have occurred we find similar asymmetries in the aftershock and dynamic stress patterns the latter being due to rupture propagation whereas the static stress changes lack this asymmetry previous studies have shown that dynamic stresses can promote failure at remote distances but here we show that they can also do so nearby

earthquake potential along the northern hayward fault california the hayward fault slips in large earthquakes and by aseismic creep observed along its surface trace dislocation models of the surface deformation adjacent to the hayward fault measured with the global positioning system and interferometric synthetic aperture radar favor creep at 7 millimeters per year to the bottom of the seismogenic zone along a 20 kilometer long northern fault segment microearthquakes with the same waveform repeatedly occur at 4 to 10 kilometer depths and indicate deep creep at 5 to 7 millimeters per year the difference between current creep rates and the long term slip rate of 10 millimeters per year can be reconciled in a mechanical model of a freely slipping northern hayward fault adjacent to the locked 1868 earthquake rupture which broke the southern 40 to 50 kilometers of the fault the potential for a major independent earthquake of the northern hayward fault might be less than previously thought

recurrence models and parkfield california earthquakes main shocks of the earthquake sequences that occurred on the parkfield section of the san andreas fault in central california in 1922 1934 and 1966 are characterized by southeast rupture expansion over the same 20 to 30 km long section of the fault whereas the seismic moments for the 1922 and 1934 events are identical to within a precision of 10 the seismic moment for 1966 is 20 greater than for the earlier events to within a precision of 20 the parkfield area seismicity in general seems well described by a recurring moderate size characteristic earthquake repeating the same epicenter magnitude seismic moment rupture area and southeast direction of rupture expansion an unexplained 10 year advance of the 1934 event is the only discrepancy in the hypothesis that the parkfield earthquakes in 1857 1881 1901 1922 1934 and 1966 represent a strictly periodic process assuming the strictly periodic model and the absence since 1966 of the perturbations hypothesized for the 1922 to 1934 period the next characteristic parkfield earthquake should occur between 1983 and 1993

three dimensional earthquake sequence simulations with evolving temperature and pore pressure due to shear heating effect of heterogeneous hydraulic diffusivity 1 a new methodology for three dimensional 3 d simulations of earthquake sequences is presented that accounts not only for inertial effects during seismic events but also for shear induced temperature variations on the fault and the associated evolution of pore fluid pressure in particular the methodology allows to capture thermal pressurization tp due to frictional heating in a shear zone one dimensional 1 d diffusion of heat and pore fluids in the fault normal direction is incorporated using a spectral method which is unconditionally stable accurate with affordable computational resources and highly suitable to earthquake sequence calculations that use variable time steps the approach is used to investigate the effect of heterogeneous hydraulic properties by considering a fault model with two regions of different hydraulic diffusivities and hence different potential for tp we find that the region of more efficient tp produces larger slip in model spanning events the slip deficit in the other region is filled with more frequent smaller events creating spatiotemporal complexity of large events on the fault interestingly the area of maximum slip in model spanning events is not associated with the maximum temperature increase because of stronger dynamic weakening in that area the region of more efficient tp has lower interseismic shear stress which discourages rupture nucleation there contrary to what was concluded in prior studies seismic events nucleate in the region of less efficient tp where interseismic shear stress is higher in our model hypocenters of large events do not occur in areas of large slip or large stress drop

rock friction and its implications for earthquake prediction examined via models of parkfield earthquakes abstract the friction of rocks in the laboratory is a function of time velocity of sliding and displacement although the processes responsible for these dependencies are unknown constitutive equations have been developed that do a reasonable job of describing the laboratory behavior these constitutive laws have been used to create a model of earthquakes at parkfield ca by using boundary conditions appropriate for the section of the fault that slips in magnitude 6 earthquakes every 20 30 years the behavior of this model prior to the earthquakes is investigated to determine whether or not the model earthquakes could be predicted in the real world by using realistic instruments and instrument locations premonitory slip does occur in the model but it is relatively restricted in time and space and detecting it from the surface may be difficult the magnitude of the strain rate at the earth s surface due to this accelerating slip seems lower than the detectability limit of instruments in the presence of earth noise although not specifically modeled microseismicity related to the accelerating creep and to creep events in the model should be detectable in fact the logarithm of the moment rate on the hypocentral cell of the fault due to slip increases linearly with minus the logarithm of the time to the earthquake this could conceivably be used to determine when the earthquake was going to occur an unresolved question is whether this pattern of accelerating slip could be recognized from the microseismicity given the discrete nature of seismic events nevertheless the model results suggest that the most likely solution to earthquake prediction is to look for a pattern of acceleration in microseismicity and thereby identify the microearthquakes as foreshocks

variability of seismic source spectra estimated stress drop and radiated energy derived from cohesive zone models of symmetrical and asymmetrical circular and elliptical ruptures large variability of earthquake stress drops and scaled energy has been commonly reported in the literature but it is difficult to assess how much of this variability is caused by underlying physical source processes rather than simply observational uncertainties here we examine a variety of dynamically realistic rupture scenarios for circular and elliptical faults and investigate to what extent the variability in seismically estimated stress drops and scaled energy comes from differences in source geometry rupture directivity and rupture speeds we numerically simulate earthquake source scenarios using a cohesive zone model with the small scale yielding limit where the solution approaches a singular crack model with spontaneous healing of slip compared to symmetrical circular source models asymmetrical models result in larger variability of estimated corner frequencies and scaled energy over the focal sphere the general behavior of the spherical averages of corner frequencies and scaled energy in the subshear regime extends to the supershear regime although shear mach waves generated by the propagation of supershear rupture lead to much higher corner frequency and scaled energy estimates locally our results suggest that at least a factor of 2 difference in the spherical average of corner frequencies is expected in observational studies simply from variability in source characteristics almost independent of the actual stress drops translating into a factor of 8 difference in estimated stress drops furthermore radiation efficiency estimates derived from observed seismic spectra should not be directly interpreted as describing rupture properties unless there are independent constraints on rupture speed and geometry

earthquake source scaling relationships from 1 to 5 ml using seismograms recorded at 2 5 km depth the scaling relationships of earthquake sources less than about magnitude 3 have been the subject of considerable controversy over the last two decades studies of such events have shown a tendency for the constant stress drop self similarity of larger earthquakes to breakdown at small magnitudes and an apparent minimum source dimension of about 100 m has been observed other studies showed that this apparent breakdown in scaling could be an artifact of severe near surface attenuation limiting the spatial resolution of surface data in this study source parameters are determined for over 100 nearby tectonic earthquakes from recordings at a depth of 2 5 km in granite in the cajon pass scientific drill hole southern california comparison of the seismograms recorded at this depth with those at the wellhead clearly demonstrates the effect of the severe attenuation in the upper kilometers of the earth s crust source parameters are calculated by spectral modeling of three component p and s waves assuming four source models based on the brune 2 n 2 model in model l n 2 is fixed and q of p and s waves is determined to be 912 581 1433 and 1078 879 1323 respectively the numbers in parentheses are 1 standard deviation in model 2 qp qs 1000 is assumed and n is allowed to vary the 2 model is a good average for the data set but there is some real scatter supported by the data in model 3 qp qs 1000 is also assumed and 2 is constrained and in model 4 attenuation is ignored and n is allowed to vary source dimensions of less than 10m are observed for all four models 10 times smaller than the proposed minimum no breakdown in constant stress drop scaling is seen in the downhole data approximately ml 1 to 5 5 m0 109 1016 nm the ratio between radiated seismic energy estimated by integrating the velocity squared spectra with adequate signal bandwidth and seismic moment appears to decrease gradually with decreasing moment in the magnitude range 1 to 7 this is not incompatible with a constant stress drop but could result from errors in calculating energy the ratio of the s wave energy to that radiated by the p waves is about 14 after correction for attenuation this low value is consistent with the corner frequency shift of about 1 3 this corner frequency shift is observed for all four source models and therefore is interpreted as being source controlled

dynamic simulations of slip on a smooth fault in an elastic solid we report on numerical simulations of slip evolution along a two dimensional slip varies only with depth vertical strike slip fault in an elastic half space using a framework incorporating full inertial elastodynamics the model is a follow up on earlier quasi static and quasi dynamic simulations of deformations along smooth fault systems in elastic continua the fault is driven below a crustal depth of 24 km by a constant plate velocity of 35 mm yr deformation at each fault location in the crustal zone is the sum of slip rate contributions from rate and state dependent friction and power law creep where both processes have temperature dependent and hence depth varying coefficients and both take place locally under the same stress the simulations employ two versions of rate and state dependent friction a slip law which requires nonzero velocity for state evolution and an ageing slowness law which incorporates state evolution and restrengthening in stationary contact the assumed constitutive laws and distribution of frictional parameters are compatible with laboratory experiments the elastodynamic calculations are based on spectral representations of variables and a new algorithm providing a unified computational framework for calculations of long deformational histories containing short periods of rapid instabilities the simulations show dynamic rupture propagation and wave phenomena not accounted for in the previous quasi static and quasi dynamic works however the results are qualitatively similar to those obtained by corresponding quasi static and quasi dynamic calculations slip histories along a smooth fault simulated here with full elastodynamics for various constitutive laws and model parameters consist mostly of quasi periodic large events this finding indicates that inertial dynamics does not provide a generic mechanism for generating spatio temporal complexities of slip on the other hand calculations done for cases representing approximately strongly disordered systems do show rich slip histories with a range of event sizes this result is compatible with our previous conclusions that the origin of observed broad distributions of earthquake sizes is strong fault zone heterogeneities the fully dynamic calculations illustrate the evolution of nucleation phases of instabilities associated with accelerating and expanding creep final slip values of model earthquakes in full elastodynamic calculations are larger than those of corresponding quasi static and quasi dynamic events the dynamic overshoot in simulations with the slip version of friction is larger than in those employing the ageing slowness law

detailed kinematics structure and recurrence of micro seismicity in the safod target region 1 large numbers of small earthquakes recorded over 2 decades and analyzed with advanced techniques are used to characterize the detailed kinematics structure and recurrence interval scaling properties of micro seismicity in a 4 4 km lateral and 6 km deep crustal volume encompassing the region of the safod deep drilling experiment the characterization reveals that the seismically active san andreas fault in the vicinity of safod s repeating magnitude 2 target earthquakes is composed of two sub parallel fault strands that are creeping at comparable rates and that one of the strands lies between the safod drilling platform and safod s target events in the region 55 of the earthquakes are members of 52 characteristically repeating earthquake sequences the recurrence intervals of the repeating target events are consistent with the interval scaling of the other sequences however this scaling is contrary to that expected from standard constant stress drop theory

earthquake source parameters determined by the safod pilot hole seismic array 1 we estimate the source parameters of 3 microearthquakes by jointly analyzing seismograms recorded by the 32 level 3 component seismic array installed in the safod pilot hole we applied an inversion procedure to estimate spectral parameters for the omega square model spectral level and corner frequency and q to displacement amplitude spectra because we expect spectral parameters and q to vary slowly with depth in the well we impose a smoothness constraint on those parameters as a function of depth using a linear first difference operator this method correctly resolves corner frequency and q which leads to a more accurate estimation of source parameters than can be obtained from single sensors the stress drop of one example of the safod target repeating earthquake falls in the range of typical tectonic earthquakes

platinum group element and nickel sulphide ore tenors of the mount keith nickel deposit yilgarn craton australia a set of platinum group element pge analyses of about 120 samples from a 250 m continuous drill core through the mount keith komatiite hosted nickel orebody combined with ni cu co s and major elements reveals a complex trend of covariance between the original cumulus components of a thick sequence of nearly pure olivine sulphide liquid adcumulates the intersection is divided into informal chemostratigraphic zones defined primarily by combinations of fine scale cyclicity in original olivine composition defined by mg and sulphide composition defined by pt s and ni s contents of ni and pge in 100 sulphides tenors were determined from linear regressions of the ni s and pge s covariance for each zone inferred olivine compositions range from about fo92 to fo94 6 and show a broad decrease from bottom to top of the sequence complicated by numerous reversals revealing crystallisation in an open conduit system ni and pge tenors of mount keith sulphide ores have typical values similar to the type i deposits of the kambalda dome mobility of s at least on the scale of 2 m sample composites is evidently relatively minor tenors for the various zones range 12 22 ni 370 1540 ppb pt 970 3670 ppb pd 100 460 ppb ir 170 460 ppb rh and 710 1260 ppb ru pt pd and rh tenors are very strongly correlated but the iridium group of platinum group elements ipges ir and ru less so tenor variations are predominantly controlled by variations in magma sulphide ratio r 100 350 with a minor component of variance from equilibrium crystallisation trends in the parent magma pge depletion in the silicate melt due to sulphide liquid extraction is limited by entrainment of sulphide liquid droplets and continuous equilibration with the transporting silicate magma ratios of the pges to one another are similar to those in the host komatiite magma with the exception of pt which is systematically depleted in ores relative to rh and pd and relative to host magma by a consistent factor of about 2 to 2 5 this anomalous pt depletion relative to pge element ratios in unmineralized komatiitic rocks matches that observed in bulk compositions of many komatiite hosted orebodies the highly consistent nature of this depletion and particularly the very strong correlation between pt pd and rh in the mount keith deposit argue that this depletion is a primary magmatic signal and not an artefact of alteration differential diffusion rates between pt and the other pges giving rise to a low effective partition coefficient for pt into sulphide liquid is advanced as a possible but not definitive explanation

experimental investigations of the weathering of suspended sediment by alpine glacial meltwater the magnitude and processes of solute acquisition by dilute meltwater in contact with suspended sediment in the channelized component of the hydroglacial system have been investigated through a suite of controlled laboratory experiments constrained by field data from haut glacier d arolla valais switzerland the effects of the water to rock ratio particle size crushing repeated wetting and the availability of protons on the rate of solute acquisition are demonstrated these free drift experiments suggest that the rock flour is extremely geochemically reactive and that dilute quickflow waters are certain to acquire solute from suspended sediment these data have important implications for hydrological interpretations based on the solute content of glacial meltwater mixing model calculations geochemical denudation rates and solute provenance studies

coseismic and postseismic velocity changes measured by repeating earthquakes 1 repeating earthquakes that rupture approximately the same fault patch and have nearly identical waveforms are a useful tool for measuring temporal changes in wave propagation in the earth s crust since source and path effects are common to all earthquakes in a repeating earthquake sequence multiplet differences in their waveforms can be attributed to changes in the characteristics of the medium we have identified over 20 multiplets containing between 5 and 40 repeating events in the aftershock zones of the 1989 loma prieta and 1984 morgan hill california earthquakes postmain shock events reveal delays of phases in the early s wave coda of as much as 0 2 s relative to premain shock events the delay amounts to a path averaged coseismic velocity decrease of about 1 5 for p waves and 3 5 for s waves since most of the multiplets are aftershocks and follow omori s law we have excellent temporal sampling in the immediate postmain shock period we find that the amplitude of the velocity decrease decays logarithmically in time following the main shock in some cases it returns to the premain shock values while in others it does not similar results are obtained for the morgan hill main shock because the fractional change in s wave velocity is greater than the fractional change in p wave velocity it suggests that the opening or connection of fluid filled fractures is the underlying cause the magnitude of the velocity change implies that low effective pressures are present in the source region of the velocity change our results suggest that the changes are predominantly near the stations and shallow but we cannot exclude the possibility that changes occur at greater depth as well if the variations are shallow we may be detecting the lingering effects of nonlinearity during main shock strong ground motion if the variations are deep it suggests that pore pressures at seismogenic depths are high which would likely play a key role in the earthquake process

frictional afterslip following the 2005 nias simeulue earthquake sumatra continuously recording global positioning system stations near the 28 march 2005 rupture of the sunda megathrust moment magnitude m w 8 7 show that the earthquake triggered aseismic frictional afterslip on the subduction megathrust with a major fraction of this slip in the up dip direction from the main rupture eleven months after the main shock afterslip continues at rates several times the average interseismic rate resulting in deformation equivalent to at least a m w 8 2 earthquake in general along strike variations in frictional behavior appear to persist over multiple earthquake cycles aftershocks cluster along the boundary between the region of coseismic slip and the up dip creeping zone we observe that the cumulative number of aftershocks increases linearly with postseismic displacements this finding suggests that the temporal evolution of aftershocks is governed by afterslip

repeating earthquake finite source models strong asperities revealed on the san andreas fault 1 we investigate the rupture process of a sequence of repeating mw 2 1 earthquakes on the san andreas fault in parkfield spanning the occurrence of the september 28 2004 mainshock by inverting seismic moment rate functions obtained from empirical green s function deconvolution the results show that these events have extremely concentrated slip patches with radii on the order of 10 20 m with peak slip between 8 4 and 11 4 cm the rupture speed and rise time are consistent with values of larger earthquakes the spatial distribution of stress drop for the events shows low average values 2 5 5 6 mpa and very large peak values of 66 7 93 9 mpa the results show that strong asperities can exist at small scales on an otherwise weak fault and helps reconcile differences between traditional spectra based and tectonic loading methods for determining the stress drop of small repeating earthquakes

stress loading from viscous flow in the lower crust and triggering of aftershocks following the 1994 northridge california earthquake following the m w 6 7 northridge earthquake significant postseismic displacements were resolved with gps using a three dimensional viscoelastic model we suggest that this deformation is mainly driven by viscous flow in the lower crust such flow can transfer stress to the upper crust and load the rupture zone of the main shock at a decaying rate most aftershocks within the rupture zone especially those that occurred after the first several weeks of the main shock may have been triggered by continuous stress loading from viscous flow the long term decay time of aftershocks about 2 years approximately matches the decay of viscoelastic loading and thus is controlled by the viscosity of the lower crust our model provides a physical interpretation of the observed correlation between aftershock decay rate and surface heat flow

scaling of small repeating earthquakes explained by interaction of seismic and aseismic slip in a rate and state fault model because of short recurrence times and known locations small repeating earthquakes present a rare predictable opportunity for detailed field observations they are used to study fault creeping velocities earthquake nucleation stress drops and other aspects of tectonophysics earthquake mechanics and seismology an intriguing observation about repeating earthquakes is their scaling of recurrence time with seismic moment which is significantly different from the scaling based on a simple conceptual model of circular ruptures with stress drop independent of seismic moment and no aseismic slip here we show that a model of repeating earthquakes based on laboratory derived rate and state friction laws reproduces the observed scaling in the model a small fault patch governed by steady state velocity weakening friction is surrounded by a much larger velocity strengthening region long term slip behavior of the fault is simulated using a methodology that fully accounts for both aseismic slip and inertial effects of occasional seismic events the model results in repeating earthquakes with typical stress drops and sizes comparable with observations for a fixed set of friction parameters the observed scaling is reproduced by varying the size of the velocity weakening patch in simulations a significant part of slip on the velocity weakening patches is accumulated aseismically even though the patches also produce seismic events the proposed model supplies a laboratory based framework for interpreting the wealth of observations about repeating earthquakes provides indirect evidence that rate and state friction acts on natural faults and has important implications for possible scenarios of slip partition into seismic and aseismic parts

stable creeping fault segments can become destructive as a result of dynamic weakening faults in earth s crust accommodate slow relative motion between tectonic plates through either similarly slow slip or fast seismic wave producing rupture events perceived as earthquakes these types of behaviour are often assumed to be separated in space and to occur on two different types of fault segment one with stable rate strengthening friction and the other with rate weakening friction that leads to stick slip the 2011 tohoku oki earthquake with moment magnitude m w 9 0 challenged such assumptions by accumulating its largest seismic slip in the area that had been assumed to be creeping here we propose a model in which stable rate strengthening behaviour at low slip rates is combined with coseismic weakening due to rapid shear heating of pore fluids allowing unstable slip to occur in segments that can creep between events the model parameters are based on laboratory measurements on samples from the fault of the m w 7 6 1999 chi chi earthquake the long term slip behaviour of the model which we examine using a unique numerical approach that includes all wave effects reproduces and explains a number of both long term and coseismic observations some of them seemingly contradictory about the faults at which the tohoku oki and chi chi earthquakes occurred including there being more high frequency radiation from areas of lower slip the largest seismic slip in the tohoku oki earthquake having occurred in a potentially creeping segment the overall pattern of previous events in the area and the complexity of the tohoku oki rupture the implication that earthquake rupture may break through large portions of creeping segments which are at present considered to be barriers requires a re evaluation of seismic hazard in many areas

aseismic slip transients emerge spontaneously in three dimensional rate and state modeling of subduction earthquake sequences 1 to investigate the possible physical mechanisms of recently observed aseismic slip events in the cascadia japan and mexico subduction zones we apply a dieterich ruina rate and state friction law to a three dimensional model of a shallow subduction fault that is loaded by imposed steady plate slip rate far downdip along the thrust interface friction properties are temperature and hence depth dependent such that sliding is stable at depths below about 30 km the system is perturbed into a significantly nonuniform slip mode along strike by introducing small along strike variations in the constitutive parameters a and a b in addition to large heterogeneous earthquake slip at seismogenic depths and associated postseismic transients we found that slip events which have clearly aseismic slip rates emerge spontaneously around the downdip end of the seismogenic zone both transients which start well after a seismic event and those which are triggered by other transients are observed from the simulations the slip velocity depth range and sometimes along strike migration speed of simulated transients are similar to the observations from natural subduction zones unstable stable transitional friction properties near the downdip end of the seismogenic zone are suggested to be an ingredient allowing such transients simulated transients can weaken the locking intensity of the updip seismogenic zone while enhancing that of the transition zone spatial temporal correlation of aseismic transients and nearby seismicity in the guerrero mexico area suggests that transients may signal a period of increased probability for nucleating their high frequency counterparts as damaging subduction thrust events

introduction to special section preparing for the san andreas fault observatory at depth 7209 seismology earthquake dynamics andmechanics 7230seismology seismicityandseismotectonics 8010structural geology fractures and faults citation hickman s m zoback and w ellsworth 2004 introduction to specialsection preparing for the san andreas fault observatory atdepth geophys res lett 31 l12s01 doi 10 1029 2004gl020688

fault stability inferred from granite sliding experiments at hydrothermal conditions seismicity on crustal faults is concentrated in the depth interval 1 3 to 12 15km tse and rice 1986 suggested that the lower bound on seismicity is due to a switch with increasing temperature from velocity weakening destabilizing to velocity strengthening stabilizing friction they inferred this transition from friction data for dry granite however pore fluids exist at elevated temperatures throughout the crust and may strongly influence strength and sliding behavior we present new data from sliding experiments on granite at elevated t 23 to 600 plus elevated ph2o 100 mpa our results show velocity strengthening at room temperature but velocity weakening from 100 to 350 c except at 250 from 350 to 600 there are systematic trends from velocity weakening to strong velocity strengthening and from high to low friction neither trend was seen in tests on dry granite the velocity dependence data imply the potential for unstable slip in the interval 100 to 350 using a geotherm to map temperature to depth this interval closely matches the observed earthquake distribution

comprehensive analysis of earthquake source spectra in southern california we compute and analyze p wave spectra from earthquakes in southern california between 1989 and 2001 using a method that isolates source receiver and path dependent terms we correct observed source spectra for attenuation using both fixed and spatially varying empirical green s function methods estimated brune type stress drops for over 60 000 m l 1 5 to 3 1 earthquakes range from 0 2 to 20 mpa with no dependence on moment or local b value median computed stress drop increases with depth in the upper crust from about 0 6 mpa at the surface to about 2 2 mpa at 8 km where it levels off and remains nearly constant in the midcrust down to about 20 km however the results at shallow depths could also be explained as reduced rupture velocities near the surface rather than a change in stress drop spatially coherent variations in median stress drop are observed with generally low values for the imperial valley and northridge aftershocks and higher values for the eastern transverse ranges and the north end of the san jacinto fault we find no correlation between observed stress drop and distance from the san andreas and other major faults significant along strike variations in stress drop exist for aftershocks of the 1992 landers earthquake which may correlate with differences in main shock slip

inversion of gps data for spatially variable slip rate on the san andreas fault near parkfield ca we analyze gps data collected from 1991 1998 at 35 sites near the parkeld segment of the san andreas fault inverting the resultant site velocities for the distri bution of interseismic slip rate on the san andreas reveals an area of low slip rate on thefault extendingfrom between middle mountain and carr hill to southeast of gold hill this slip rate patternis similar to thatfoundbyharris and segall 1987 using trilateration data collected between 1966 and 1984 we infer a deep slip rate 33 mm yr and depth of the transition between seismogenic and non seismogenic slip 14km thatagree betterwithindependentgeologic ev idence than those found in the 1987 study in contrast to harris and segall 1987 wendnoevidenceoffault normal contraction

modeling high stress drops scaling interaction and irregularity of repeating earthquake sequences near parkfield repeating earthquake sequences have been actively investigated to clarify many aspects of earthquake physics the two particularly well studied sequences known as the los angeles and san francisco repeaters have several intriguing observations including their long for the seismic moment recurrence times that would suggest stress drops of 300 mpa based on typical assumptions near syncronized timing prior to 2004 and higher than typical inferred stress drops of 25 to 65 mpa up to 90 mpa locally but not as high as the recurrence times suggest here we show that all these observations are self consistent in the sense that they can be reproduced in a single fault model the suitable models build on the standard rate and state fault models with velocity weakening patches imbedded into a velocity strengthening region by adding either enhanced dynamic weakening during seismic slip or elevated normal stress on the patches or both to allow for the higher stress drops such models are able to match the observed average properties of the san francisco and los angeles repeaters as well as the overall nontrivial scaling between the recurrence time and seismic moment exhibited by many repeating sequences as a whole for reasonable parameter choices based on experiments and theoretical studies these models are characterized by the occurrence of substantial and variable aseismic slip at the locations of the repeating sources which explains their atypical relation between recurrence interval and seismic moment induces variability in the repeating source properties as observed and results in their neither slip nor time predictable behavior

global variations of stress drop for moderate to large earthquakes 1 we investigate the global variation of earthquake stress drops using spectra of about 2000 events of mb 5 5 between 1990 and 2007 we use an iterative least squares method to isolate source displacement spectra from travel path and receiver contributions based on a convolutional model the observed p wave source spectra are corrected with a globally averaged empirical correction spectrum and estimates of near source attenuation assuming a brune type source model we estimate corner frequencies and compute stress drops stress drop estimates for individual earthquakes range from about 0 3 to 50 mpa but the median stress drop of about 4 mpa does not vary with moment implying earthquake self similarity over the mw 5 2 to 8 3 range of our data a comparison of our results with previous studies confirms this observation over most of the instrumentally observable magnitude range while the absolute values of our estimated stress drops depend upon the assumed source model we identify relative regional variations of stress drop that are robust with respect to the processing parameters and modeling assumptions which includes an inherent assumption of constant rupture velocity we find a dependence of median stress drop on focal mechanism with a factor of 3 5 times higher stress drops for strike slip earthquakes and also find a factor of 2 times higher stress drops for intraplate earthquakes compared to interplate earthquakes

stress drops of repeating earthquakes on the san andreas fault at parkfield i calculate well resolved corner frequencies and stress drops for 25 earthquakes 1989 2006 in the three repeating sequences targeted by the san andreas fault observatory at depth using borehole data and multiple highly correlated empirical green s functions egfs the earthquakes in the largest magnitude m 2 1 cluster exhibit source spectra well fit by a circular source model the corner frequencies correlate with those from the regional study by allmann and shearer 2007 suggesting that the interevent variability is resolvable the earthquakes have stress drops between 25 and 65 mpa with a gradual increase before the 2004 m6 earthquake followed by an immediate decrease then a rapid return to previous levels the spectra of the cluster of m 1 9 earthquakes include high frequency energy not fit by simple source models and so stress drops are unreliable and probably underestimated 1 20 mpa there is no correlation with previous studies and interevent variation is not resolvable the earthquakes in the smallest magnitude cluster m 1 8 have the highest corner frequencies but similar stress drops 4 120 mpa the stress drops exhibit the same temporal variation as the first cluster but there is poor correlation with allmann and shearer 2007 probably because their frequency bandwidth is too limited

spatial and temporal stress drop variations in small earthquakes near parkfield california 1 we estimate source parameters from spectra of 42367 earthquakes between 1984 and 2005 that occurred in the parkfield segment of the san andreas fault in central california we use a method that isolates the source term of the displacement spectra based on a convolutional model and correct the observed p wave source spectra with a spatially varying empirical green s function egf our brune type stress drop estimates vary from 0 1 to over 100 mpa with a median value of 6 75 mpa which is nearly constant with moment implying self similarity over the ml 0 5 to 3 0 range of our data the corner frequency decreases for earthquakes at shallower depths consistent with slower rupture velocities and reduced shear wave velocities in local velocity models the estimated median stress drops show significant lateral variations we find lower stress drops in the middle mountain asperity and along the creeping fault section and higher stress drops in the hypocentral region of the 2004 m6 0 parkfield earthquake the main shock did not alter the overall pattern of high and low stress drop regions however a statistical test reveals areas with significant changes in computed stress drops after the main shock which we compare to estimated absolute shear stress changes from a main shock slip model by calculating t from the spectral egf ratio we also identify areas with increased attenuation after the main shock and we are able to distinguish source effects and near source attenuation effects in the spectral analysis these results are confirmed independently from spectral ratios of repeating microearthquake clusters

plate boundary slip associated with the 2003 off tokachi earthquake based on small repeating earthquake data 1 plate boundary slip associated with the 2003 off tokachi earthquake northern japan is determined by analysis of repeating earthquakes in the source region a total of 251 repeating earthquake groups consisting of 666 events are identified in and around the aftershock region from october 1 2000 to may 31 2004 although a number of the repeating earthquakes in this region occurred before the main shock there are many events that occurred after the main event the repeating earthquakes are located in the major afterslip region and distributed to the southeast based on this analysis it is estimated that the areas to the east and southeast of the coseismic area undergone approximately 50 cm of slip over three months following the earthquake and less than 5 cm over the three years prior to the earthquake repeating earthquakes can provide afterslip data in offshore areas where resolution from land based gps is poor

fault healing inferred from time dependent variations in source properties of repeating earthquakes we analyze two sets of repeating earthquakes on the calaveras fault to estimate in situ rates of fault strengthening healing earthquake recurrence intervals tr range from 3 to 803 days variations in relative moment and duration are combined to study changes in stress drop rupture dimension rupture veloc ity and particle velocity as a function of t healing rates and source variations are compared with predictions of laboratory derived friction laws two interpretations of event duration z are used one in which is given by the ratio of slip to particle ve locity and one in which it scales as rupture dimension divided by rupture velocity our data indicate that faults strengthen during the interseismic period we infer that source dimension de creases with t r due to aseismic creep within the region surround ing the repeating events stress drop increases 1 3mpa per dec ade increase in twhich represents an increase of a factor of 2 3 relative to events with tbetween 10 and 100 days this rate of fault healing is consistent with extrapolations of laboratory meas urements of healing rates if fault strength is high on order of 60mpa and stress drop is roughly 10 of this value

earthquake nucleation on faults with rate and state dependent strength abstract dieterich j h 1992 earthquake nucleation on faults with rate and state dependent strength in t mikumo k aki m ohnaka l j ruff and p k p spudich editors earthquake source physics and earthquake precursors tectonophysics 211 115 134 faults with rate and state dependent constitutive properties reproduce a range of observed fault slip phenomena including spontaneous nucleation of slip instabilities at stresses above some critical stress level and recovery of strength following slip instability calculations with a plane strain fault model with spatially varying properties demonstrate that accelerating slip precedes instability and becomes localized to a fault patch the dimensions of the fault patch follow scaling relations for the minimum critical length for unstable fault slip the critical length is a function of normal stress loading conditions and constitutive parameters which include dc the characteristic slip distance if slip starts on a patch that exceeds the critical size the length of the rapidly accelerating zone tends to shrink to the characteristic size as the time of instability approaches solutions have been obtained for a uniform fixed patch model that are in good agreement with results from the plane strain model over a wide range of conditions above the steady state stress the logarithm of the time to instability linearly decreases as the initial stress increases because nucleation patch length and premonitory displacement are proportional to dc the moment of premonitory slip scales by d3c the scaling of dc is currently an open question unless dc for earthquake faults is significantly greater than that observed on laboratory faults premonitory strain arising from the nucleation process for earthquakes may by too small to detect using current observation methods excluding the possibility that dc in the nucleation zone controls the magnitude of the subsequent earthquake then the source dimensions of the smallest earthquakes in a region provide an upper limit for the size of the nucleation patch

foreshocks during the nucleation of stick slip instability 1 we report on laboratory experiments which investigate interactions between aseismic slip stress changes and seismicity on a critically stressed fault during the nucleation of stick slip instability we monitor quasi static and dynamic changes in local shear stress and fault slip with arrays of gages deployed along a simulated strike slip fault 2 m long and 0 4 m deep in a saw cut sample of sierra white granite with 14 piezoelectric sensors we simultaneously monitor seismic signals produced during the nucleation phase and subsequent dynamic rupture we observe localized aseismic fault slip in an approximately meter sized zone in the center of the fault while the ends of the fault remain locked clusters of high frequency foreshocks mw 6 5 to 5 0 can occur in this slowly slipping zone 5 50 ms prior to the initiation of dynamic rupture their occurrence appears to be dependent on the rate at which local shear stress is applied to the fault the meter sized nucleation zone is generally consistent with theoretical estimates but source radii of the foreshocks 2 to 70 mm are 1 to 2 orders of magnitude smaller than the theoretical minimum length scale over which earthquake nucleation can occur we propose that frictional stability and the transition between seismic and aseismic slip are modulated by local stressing rate and that fault sections which would typically slip aseismically may radiate seismic waves if they are rapidly stressed fault behavior of this type may provide physical insight into the mechanics of foreshocks tremor repeating earthquake sequences and a minimum earthquake source dimension

spatially variable fault friction derived from dynamic modeling of aseismic afterslip due to the 2004 parkfield earthquake we investigate fault friction from dynamic modeling of fault slip prior to and following the m w 6 0 earthquake which ruptured the parkfield segment of the san andreas fault in 2004 the dynamic modeling assumes a purely rate strengthening friction law with a logarithmic dependency on sliding rate a b ln v v the initial state of stress is explicitly taken into account and afterslip is triggered by the stress change induced by the earthquake source model given a priori we consider different initial stress states and two coseismic models and invert for the other model parameters using a nonlinear inversion scheme the model parameters include the reference friction the friction rate dependency characterized by the quantity a b assumed to be either uniform or depth dependent the model parameters are determined from fitting the transient postseismic geodetic signal measured at continuous gps stations our study provides a view of frictional properties at the kilometers scale over the 0 15 km depth illuminated by the coseismic stress change induced by the parkfield earthquake the reference friction is estimated to be between 0 1 and 0 5 with independent a priori constraints on the amplitude of differential stress the range of possible values narrows down to 0 1 0 17 the friction rate coefficient a b is estimated to be 10 3 10 2 with a hint that it increases upward from about 1 3 10 3 at 3 7 km depth to about 4 7 10 3 at 0 1 km depth it is remarkable that our results are consistent with frictional properties measured on rock samples recovered from the fault zone thanks to the san andreas fault observatory at depth experiment

fault slip rates at depth from recurrence intervals of repeating microearthquakes unique attributes in sequences of recurring similar microearthquakes at parkfield california provide a means for inferring slip rate at depth throughout the active fault surface from the time intervals between sequence events application of the method using an 11 year microseismicity record revealed systematic spatial and temporal changes in the slip rate that were synchronous with earthquake activity and other independent measures of fault zone slip if this phenomenon is found to be generally common behavior in active faults it forms the basis for a method to monitor the changing strain field throughout a seismogenic fault zone

elastodynamic analysis for slow tectonic loading with spontaneous rupture episodes on faults with rate and state dependent friction we present an efficient and rigorous numerical procedure for calculating the elastodynamic response of a fault subjected to slow tectonic loading processes of long duration within which there are episodes of rapid earthquake failure this is done for a general class of rate and state dependent friction laws with positive direct velocity effect the algorithm allows us to treat accurately within a single computational procedure loading intervals of thousands of years and to calculate for each earthquake episode initially aseismic accelerating slip prior to dynamic rupture the rupture propagation itself rapid post seismic deformation which follows and also ongoing creep slippage throughout the loading period in velocity strengthening fault regions the methodology is presented using the two dimensional 2 d antiplane spectral formulation and can be readily extended to the 2 d in plane and 3 d spectral formulations and with certain modifications to the space time boundary integral formulations as well as to their discretized development using finite difference or finite element methods the methodology can be used to address a number of important issues such as fault operation under low overall stress interaction of dynamic rupture propagation with pore pressure development patterns of rupture propagation in events nucleated naturally as a part of a sequence the earthquake nucleation process earthquake sequences on faults with heterogeneous frictional properties and or normal stress and others the procedure is illustrated for a 2 d crustal strike slip fault model with depth variable properties for lower values of the state evolution distance of the friction law small events appear the nucleation phases of the small and large events are very similar suggesting that the size of an event is determined by the conditions on the fault segments the event is propagating into rather than by the nucleation process itself we demonstrate the importance of incorporating slow tectonic loading with elastodynamics by evaluating two simplified approaches one with the slow tectonic loading but no wave effects and the other with all dynamic effects included but much higher loading rate

postseismic deformation due to the mw 6 0 2004 parkfield earthquake stress driven creep on a fault with spatially variable rate and state friction parameters 1 we investigate the coseismic and postseismic deformation due to the m w 6 0 2004 parkfield california earthquake we produce coseismic and postseismic slip models by inverting data from an array of 14 continuous gps stations from the scign network kinematic inversions of postseismic gps data over a time period of 3 years show that afterslip occurred in areas of low seismicity and low coseismic slip predominantly at a depth of 5 km inversions suggest that coseismic stress increases were relaxed by predominantly aseismic afterslip on a fault plane the kinetics of afterslip is consistent with a velocity strengthening friction generalized to include the case of infinitesimal velocities we performed simulations of stress driven creep using a numerical model that evaluates the time dependent deformation due to coseismic stress changes in a viscoelastoplastic half space starting with a coseismic slip distribution we compute the time dependent evolution of afterslip on a fault plane and the associated displacements at the gps stations data are best explained by a rate strengthening model with frictional parameter a b 7 x 10 3 at a high end of values observed in laboratory experiments we also find that the geodetic moment due to creep is a factor of 100 greater than the cumulative seismic moment of aftershocks the rate of aftershocks in the top 10 km of the seismogenic zone mirrors the kinetics of afterslip suggesting that postearthquake seismicity is governed by loading from the nearby aseismic creep the san andreas fault around parkfield is deduced to have large along strike variations in rate and state frictional properties velocity strengthening areas may be responsible for the separation of the coseismic slip in two distinct asperities and for the ongoing aseismic creep occurring between the velocity weakening patches after the 2004 rupture

subglacial carbonate deposition an isotopic study of a present day case abstract different types of calcite deposits may be formed in the subglacial environment patchy coatings on polished and striated bedrock pavements occur on outcrops recently exposed by retreating temperature glaciers coated pebbles and thin limestone crusts in fissures are present in recent basal till exposures freezing of meltwater is the main process susceptible to explain most of these carbonate deposits partial freezing is accompanied by a rejection of ions from the growing ice and a concentration increase in the residual water eventually until saturation is reached glacier sliding over a protuberance by pressure melting on the stoss side and refreezing on the lee side is likely to be responsible for subglacial carbonate deposition a fixed bedrock protuberance will give rise to fluted and furrowed coatings on its lee side a mobile protuberance like a pebble at the ice bedrock interface because it is susceptible to rotate while in traction will have a coating on most of its surface a present day case in the swiss alps is studied by a comparison of the isotopic composition of calcite deposits ice and meltwater from the glacier this study indicates that melting of the basal ice layer not of glacier ice is at the origin of the initial water giving rise to the precipitate since the basal ice layer is formed in the marginal zone of the glacier subglacial carbonate deposition is a marginal feature in this case

quasi static slip rate shielding by locked and creeping zones as an explanation for small repeating earthquakes at parkfield in a recent study of microearthquakes along the parkfield segment of the san andreas fault nadeau et al 1995 have found that much of the seismicity in the region is characterized by quasi periodic repeating sequences of small earthquakes that are essentially identical in waveform size and location nadeau and johnson 1998 interpreted these as repeated slip on a given asperity driven by a steady slip rate of 2 3 cm yr and concluded that the stress drops needed to be extremely high of the order of 20 kilobars we propose another explanation for these small repeating events namely that an inner asperity is surrounded by a larger creeping zone which in turn is surrounded by a still larger locked zone this geometry produces a local slip velocity much less than the overall creep velocity observed on a still larger scale slip velocity shielding we have constructed a foam rubber model to illustrate the phenomenon the time sequences of small events at the asperity punctuated by large events which rupture the whole block look very similar to the cumulative moment plots of nadeau and johnson the actual dynamic stress drops are of the same order as for the large events thus the results of the model correspond to the observations of nadeau and johnson and suggest that the model may be appropriate to explain their observations without requiring super strong asperities

three dimensional boundary integral modeling of spontaneous earthquake sequences and aseismic slip 1 fault processes involve complex patterns of seismic events and aseismic slip this work develops a three dimensional 3 d methodology for simulating long term history of spontaneous seismic and aseismic slip on a vertical planar strike slip fault subjected to slow tectonic loading our approach reproduces all stages of earthquake cycles from accelerating slip before dynamic instability to rapid dynamic propagation of earthquake rupture to postseismic slip and to interseismic creep including aseismic transients we use the developed 3 d methodology to study interaction of fault slip with a small patch of higher normal stress over long term slip history for uniform initial prestress dynamic rupture is significantly affected by the stronger patch in the first simulated event but not in subsequent ones the change in behavior is due to redistribution of shear stress by prior slip which demonstrates that distributions of fault strength and stress are related and illustrates the importance of simulating long slip histories even in studies of dynamic rupture despite no long term effect on dynamic rupture the small patch of higher normal stress influences nucleation processes and hence long term slip patterns in the model comparison of the fully dynamic simulations and a widely used quasi dynamic approach shows that the quasi dynamic approach modifies long term slip patterns in addition to resulting in much smaller slip velocities and rupture speeds during dynamic events we show that the response of quasi dynamic formulations with reduced radiation damping terms can be scaled to match the results of the standard quasi dynamic formulation and hence cannot improve the comparison