stress perturbations associated with active faults penetrated by boreholes possible evidence for near complete stress drop and a new technique for stress magnitude measurement detailed studies of stress induced wellbore breakouts in wells drilled through active faults reveal stress field discontinuities that are apparently associated with recent fault movements these discontinuities are expressed as localized rotations in wellbore breakout orientation in the vicinity of the fault penetrated by the borehole this phenomenon is observed in a variety of tectonic environments and rock types utilizing cases where relatively complete knowledge of the horizontal principal stresses is available from in situ measurements we use three dimensional dislocation modeling to demonstrate that these discontinuities can be explained as the superposition of a reference stress state and a perturbation caused by movement on preexisting faults case studies from normal strike slip and reverse faulting stress states indicate that nearly complete stress drop is required to match the observed breakout orientation anomalies hydraulic fracturing data independently confirm the occurrence of near complete stress drop on some faults penetrated by drilling modeling of the observed interactions between breakouts and fractures can also be used to obtain information about the magnitude of in situ stress

earthquakes faulting and stress in the los angeles basin since 1920 fourteen moderate sized m l 4 9 6 4 earthquakes have been reported in the los angeles basin these events are associated with both mappable surficial faults and concealed faults beneath the basin sediments to determine the style of faulting and state of stress in the basin single event focal mechanisms for 244 earthquakes of m 2 5 that have occurred during 1977 1989 have been calculated fifty nine percent of the events are strike slip and are mostly located near two of the major northwest striking right lateral strike slip faults in the basin the newport inglewood fault and the palos verdes fault the 1988 pasadena and the 1988 upland earthquakes showed left lateral strike slip on northeast striking faults numerous small earthquakes in the eastern part of the basin show left lateral strike slip faulting and form a northeast trend near yorba linda thirty two percent of the events have reverse mechanisms and are distributed along two broad zones the first the elysian park fold and thrust belt coincides with anticlines along the eastern and northern flank of the los angeles basin extending into santa monica bay the second the torrance wilmington fold and thrust belt coincides with anticlines mapped on the southwest flank of the basin and extends from offshore newport beach to the northwest into santa monica bay oblique faulting that could be inferred by the merging of strike slip and compressional tectonics does not occur in the basin instead the coexistence of zones of thrusting and large strike slip faults in the basin suggests that the thrust and strike slip movements are mostly decoupled a few normal faulting mechanisms appear to be related to faulting orthogonal to the axes of plunging anticlines the trend of the maximum horizontal stress varies from n1 w to n31 e across the basin and consistently forms high angles with the fold axes the stress field that exists along the flanks of the basin has a vertical minimum stress axis this stress field and ongoing folding and thrusting suggest that tectonic deformation is concentrated along the flanks of the deep central basin today the deformation of the basin consists of uplift and crustal thickening and lateral block movement to accommodate the north south compression across the basin

the effects of lateral property variations on fault zone reactivation by fluid pressurization application to co2 pressurization effects within major and undetected fault zones in this study we performed in situ multidisciplinary analyses of two different fault zones in carbonate formations one is a seismically active fault zone several kilometers long the roccasseira fault zone the other is a small fault zone a few hundred meters long the gas fault zone the smaller immature fault zone displays a discontinuous damage zone because tectonic deformations have been accommodated differently according to the initial properties of the host rock the larger mature fault zone displays a continuous damage zone caused by the presence of secondary fault cores embedded in a heavily fractured area inside the damage zone these markedly different fault zone architectures were reflected in two hydraulic and geomechanical fault models both generated from a coupled fluid flow and geomechanical simulator to examine the impact of hydromechanical property distribution on fault stability when the faults are reactivated by co2 injection in the smaller fault zone marked differences in hydromechanical properties young s modulus and permeability favor fluid accumulation inducing high pressurization in parts of the damage zone potentially resulting in small seismic events on the other hand in the mature fault zone fluid flows more easily and thus fluid induced earthquakes may not readily occur because the fault zone pressurization is much lower insufficient for triggering a seismic event

structure and mechanical properties of faults in the north anatolian fault system from insar observations of coseismic deformation due to the 1999 izmit turkey earthquake 1 we study the structure and mechanical properties of faults in the north anatolian fault system by observing near fault deformation induced by the 1999 mw 7 4 izmit earthquake turkey we use interferometric synthetic aperture radar insar and global positioning system observations to analyze the coseismic surface deformation in the near field of the izmit rupture the overall observed coseismic deformation is consistent with deformation predicted by a dislocation model assuming a uniform elastic crust previous insar studies revealed small scale changes in the radar range across the nearby faults of the north anatolian fault system in particular the mudurnu valley and iznik faults e g wright et al 2001 we demonstrate that these anomalous range changes are consistent with an elastic response of compliant fault zones to the stress perturbation induced by the izmit earthquake we examine the spatial variations and mechanical properties of fault zones around the mudurnu valley and iznik faults using three dimensional finite element models in these models we include compliant fault zones having various geometries and elastic properties and apply stress changes deduced from a kinematic slip model of the izmit earthquake the best fitting models suggest that the inferred fault zones have a characteristic width of a few kilometers depth in excess of 10 km and reductions in the effective shear modulus of about a factor of 3 compared to the surrounding rocks the characteristic width of the best fitting fault zone models is consistent with field observations along the north anatolian fault system ambraseys 1970 our results are also in agreement with insar observations of small scale deformation on faults in the eastern california shear zone in response to the 1992 landers and 1999 hector mine earthquakes fialko et al 2002 fialko 2004 the inferred compliant fault zones likely represent intense damage and may be quite commonly associated with large crustal faults

seismicity triggered by fluid injection induced aseismic slip anthropogenic fluid injections are known to induce earthquakes the mechanisms involved are poorly understood and our ability to assess the seismic hazard associated with geothermal energy or unconventional hydrocarbon production remains limited we directly measure fault slip and seismicity induced by fluid injection into a natural fault we observe highly dilatant and slow 4 micrometers per second m s aseismic slip associated with a 20 fold increase of permeability which transitions to faster slip 10 m s associated with reduced dilatancy and micro earthquakes most aseismic slip occurs within the fluid pressurized zone and obeys a rate strengthening friction law 0 67 0 045ln v v with v 0 1 m s fluid injection primarily triggers aseismic slip in this experiment with micro earthquakes being an indirect effect mediated by aseismic creep

the impacts of mechanical stress transfers caused by hydromechanical and thermal processes on fault stability during hydraulic stimulation in a deep geothermal reservoir we performed a series of 3d thermo hydro mechanical thm simulations to study the influences of hydromechanical and thermal processes on the development of an enhanced geothermal system strongly influenced by a network of short fault zones the model we developed was calibrated by comparing the simulated thm responses to field observations including ground surface deformations well pressure and microseismic activity of particular importance was the comparison between the observed temporal and spatial distribution of microseismic activity and the calculated shear reactivation of preexisting fractures inferred from simulated elasto plastic mechanical responses in the short fault zones using this approach we could identify when fault zones were reactivated as manifested in the field by a surge of local microseismic activity within the fault zone and we could back calculate the in situ stress field as being close to the stress conditions required for shear reactivation our results show that the main mechanisms of inducing seismicity are related to injection induced pressure increase and cooling during injection the reservoir expansion caused by the pressure increase led to mechanical stress transfer through the reservoir which prevented or delayed the reactivation of preexisting fractures after injection stopped there was an inversion of the mechanical stress transfers that favored shear reactivation which may explain why microseismic activity occurred after the cessation of the injection

stable and unstable damage evolution in rocks with implications to fracturing of granite summary we address the relation between the rock rigidity and crack density by comparing predictions of a viscoelastic damage rheology model to laboratory data that include direct microscopic mapping of cracks the damage rheology provides a generalization of hookean elasticity to a non linear continuum mechanics framework incorporating degradation and recovery of the effective elastic properties transition from stable to unstable fracturing and gradual accumulation of irreversible deformation this approach is based on the assumption that the density of microcracks is uniform over a length scale much larger than the length of a typical crack yet much smaller than the size of the entire deforming domain for a system with a sufficiently large number of cracks one can define a representative volume in which the crack density is uniform and introduce an intensive damage variable for this volume we tested our viscoelastic damage rheology against sets of laboratory experiments done on mount scott granite based on fitting the entire stress strain records the damage variable is constrained and found to be a linear function of the crack density an advantage of these sets experiments is that they were preformed with different loading paths and explicitly demonstrated the existence of stable and unstable fracturing regimes we demonstrate that the viscoelastic damage rheology provides an adequate quantitative description of the brittle rock deformation and simulates both the stable and unstable damage evolution under various loading conditions comparison between the presented data analysis of experiments with mount scott granite and previous results with westerly granite and berea sandstone indicates that granular or porous rocks have lower seismic coupling this implies that the portion of elastic strain released during a seismic cycle as brittle deformation depends on the lithology of the region hence upper crustal regions with thick sedimentary cover or fault zones with high degree of damage are expected to undergo a more significant inelastic deformation in the interseismic period compared to intact crystalline rocks

earthquake faulting as a structural process abstract structural geology is concerned with the history of movement in the earth s crust and the processes by which displacements occur in the upper one third to one half of deforming continental crust displacement is accommodated largely by seismic slip increments on existing faults it follows that earthquakes and related processes are an integral part of structural geology traditionally structural geologists have been preoccupied with the complexity of the finite deformation within fault zones and with the stress states prevailing at the initiation of faults in intact crust future structural work should be directed more towards understanding the dynamic character of fault reactivation during incremental slip and related effects questions of interest include rheological and geometrical controls on the initiation perturbation and termination of ruptures directivity effects associated with rupture propagation the recognition of structures resulting from repeated stress cycling within seismogenic crust and identification of structural features diagnostic of shear stress levels during faulting structures arising from the inter relationships between slip episodes and induced fluid flow are of special importance because these dynamic fault processes appear influential in the development of much fault hosted mineralization mesothermal gold quartz lodes hosted in high angle reverse shear zones of mixed brittle ductile character form illustrative examples of structures that arguably can only be interpreted by seismo structural analysis embodying the concepts listed above

determination of stress from slip data faults and folds a new technique is derived to invert slickenside data for the stress field that caused the faulting episode this inversion is simplified by the assumption that the magnitude of the tangential traction on the various fault planes at the time of rupture is similar study of three normal faulting regimes shows that the inversion derived with this assumption yields results that closely match older inversions that did not include the assumption hence the assumption may be valid and is shown to be justified by analyzing a simple fracture criterion application of slip data inversions is extended from faulting regimes to the slip on bedding plane faults in folding regimes comparison of the inversion results with the geometry of the folds shows this application to be successful greatly increasing the number of data sets that can be used to find the paleostress field

probing the mechanical properties of seismically active crust with space geodesy study of the coseismic deformation due to the 1992 mw7 3 landers southern california earthquake 1 the coseismic deformation due to the 1992 m w 7 3 landers earthquake southern california is investigated using synthetic aperture radar sar and global positioning system gps measurements the ers 1 satellite data from the ascending and descending orbits are used to generate contiguous maps of three orthogonal components east north up of the coseismic surface displacement field the coseismic displacement field exhibits symmetries with respect to the rupture plane that are suggestive of a linear relationship between stress and strain in the crust interferometric synthetic aperture radar insar data show small scale deformation on nearby faults of the eastern california shear zone some of these faults in particular the calico rodman and pinto mountain faults were also subsequently strained by the 1999 m w 7 1 hector mine earthquake i test the hypothesis that the anomalous fault strain represents essentially an elastic response of kilometer scale compliant fault zones to stressing by nearby earthquakes fialko et al 2002 the coseismic stress perturbations due to the landers earthquake are computed using a slip model derived from inversions of the insar and gps data calculations are performed for both homogeneous and transversely isotropic half space models the compliant zone model that best explains the deformation on the calico and pinto mountain faults due to the hector mine earthquake successfully predicts the coseismic displacements on these faults induced by the landers earthquake deformation on the calico and pinto mountain faults implies about a factor of 2 reduction in the effective shear modulus within the similar to 2 km wide fault zones the depth extent of the low rigidity zones is poorly constrained but is likely in excess of a few kilometers the same type of structure is able to explain high gradients in the radar line of sight displacements observed on other faults adjacent to the landers rupture in particular the lenwood fault north of the soggy lake has likely experienced a few centimeters of left lateral motion across 1 km wide compliant fault zone having the rigidity reduction of more than a factor of 2 the inferred compliant fault zones are interpreted to be a result of extensive damage due to past earthquakes

broadband modeling of local earthquakes three component broadband waveforms of two small earthquakes near upland california recorded on the pasadena broadband high dynamic range instrument were modeled to obtain useful green s functions for this path and to examine the sensitivity of the synthetic seismograms to perturbations of the crustal model we assumed that the source of each event was both simple and known as determined from the caltech usgs array first motions a trapezoidal time function was chosen to fit the width of the direct s wave generalized rays reflectivity and finite difference techniques were used to compute the synthetic seismograms we found that a simple layer over a half space model is an adequate approximation of the upper crust along this profile in particular the waveforms are controlled by a relatively slow 4 km thick surficial layer 4 5km s 1 2 6 km s 1 over a faster layer 5 9 km s 1 3 5 km s 1 the relative amplitudes of direct and multiple s indicate that the main shock occurred at a depth of 6 km while the aftershock occurred at a depth of 8 to 9 km sensitivity analyses indicate that for distances less than 50 km and for periods longer than 1 sec the synthetic seismograms are not very sensitive to perturbations of the deep crustal structure analysis of upper crustal model perturbations revealed that the surficial layer is between 3 to 5 km thick in addition the contact between this layer and the underlying material can be smoothed with a 2 km wide velocity gradient without adversely affecting the fit to the data two dimensional finite difference calculations show that a ridge structure beneath the recorder acts as a lowpass filter the lower frequency phases are largely unaffected other two dimensional models with ridges between the source and receiver clearly did not fit the data synthetic seismograms computed for the best fitting model were used to estimate a long period moment of 6 2 1022 dyne cm ml 4 6 and 1 1022 dyne cm ml 3 7 with identical triangular source time durations of 0 3 sec assuming the same fault dimension of 0 4 km from standard scaling laws stress drop estimates of 410 and 70 bars are obtained for the two events respectively generally we found that it is possible to reproduce local waveforms at frequencies up to 1 hz without a complete knowledge of fine structural detail resulting green s functions can be useful in studying historic events and in simulations of large events from a given source region

seismic and geodetic evidence for extensive long lived fault damage zones during earthquakes slip is often localized on preexisting faults but it is not well understood how the structure of crustal faults may contribute to slip localization and energetics growing evidence suggests that the crust along active faults undergoes anomalous strain and damage during large earthquakes seismic and geodetic data from the calico fault in the eastern california shear zone reveal a wide zone of reduced seismic velocities and effective elastic moduli using seismic traveltimes trapped waves and interferometric synthetic aperture radar observations we document seismic velocities reduced by 40 50 and shear moduli reduced by 65 compared to wall rock in a 1 5 km wide zone along the calico fault observed velocity reductions likely represent the cumulative mechanical damage from past earthquake ruptures no large earthquake has broken the calico fault in historic time implying that fault damage persists for hundreds or perhaps thousands of years these fi ndings indicate that faults can affect rock properties at substantial distances from primary fault slip surfaces and throughout much of the seismogenic zone a result with implications for the amount of energy expended during rupture to drive cracking and yielding of rock and development of fault systems

evidence for large earthquakes in metropolitan los angeles the sierra madre fault along the southern flank of the san gabriel mountains in the los angeles region has failed in magnitude 7 2 to 7 6 events at least twice in the past 15 000 years restoration of slip on the fault indicated a minimum of about 4 0 meters of slip from the most recent earthquake and suggests a total cumulative slip of about 10 5 meters for the past two prehistoric earthquakes large surface displacements and strong ground motions resulting from greater than magnitude 7 earthquakes within the los angeles region are not yet considered in most seismic hazard and risk assessments

a tomographic image of mantle structure beneath southern california we determined the variations in seismic structure beneath southern california by using a tomographic method of inversion on teleseismic p delays recorded with the southern california array the algorithm employed was a modified form of an algebraic reconstruction technique art used in medical x ray imaging deconvolution with an empirically estimated point spread function was also used to help in focusing the image the inversion reveals two prominent features beneath the region the first is a thin vertical wedge directly beneath the transverse ranges that is 2 3 faster than the surrounding region this feature deepens to the east attaining a maximum depth of about 250 km beneath the san bernardino mountains the second feature is a major zone of low velocity material that is 2 4 slow under the salton trough rift valley extending to a depth of about 125 km two possible explanations for the spatial association of the transverse ranges with the velocity anomaly below are lithospheric subduction or small scale sublithospheric convection in the region of the big bend of the san andreas fault the low velocity anomaly beneath the salton trough is consistent with convective upwelling there

tectonic melange as fault rock of subduction plate boundary abstract an assemblage of quantitative data sets is examined to evaluate tectonic melange as a plate boundary fault rocks in subduction zone the research object is the latest cretaceous mugi melange in the shimanto belt southwest japan systematic age younging from pelagic to terrigenous through hemipelagic sediments is well documented even though original stratigraphy is disrupted systematic shear fabric consistent with ancient plate convergence is reconstructed the melange was formed at temperatures of 130 200 c by cataclastic comminution of sandstone layers accompanied by tensile cracking and plastic deformation and the dehydration of clayey shale matrix with subsequent peeling off and underplating of the oceanic basement the temperature setting for the mugi melange indicates around the up dip limit of the seismogenic zone therefore includes various fault rocks suggestive of earthquake fault pseudotachylyte fluidized ultracataclasite with heating evidence amorphous silica and so on these suggest that fluid induced lubrication was dominated localized cataclastic shear which is a candidate of small earthquake or very low frequency earthquake is also recognized especially in sandstone blocks dominated portion in melange these observations are consistent with the melange being a fault rock along the plate boundary that records various types of earthquakes in a subduction zone the quantitative examination of the mugi melange suggests several criteria to define the tectonic melange of the plate boundary fault in subduction zone from other melanges in orogenic belt

composition microstructures and petrophysics of the mozumi fault japan in situ analyses of fault zone properties and structure in sedimentary rocks from shallow crustal levels 1 we characterize the chemical microstructural and geophysical properties of fault related rock samples from the 80 100 m wide mozumi fault zone north central honshu japan the fault is exposed in a research tunnel 300 400 m below the ground and we combine geological data with borehole geophysical logs to determine the elastic and seismic properties of the fault zone detailed mapping within the tunnel reveals that the fault zone consists of two zones of breccia to foliated cataclasites 20 and 50 m thick two narrow tens of centimeters wide principal slip zones on which most of the slip occurred bound the central fault zone the dominant deformation mechanisms within the fault zone were brittle fracture brecciation slip localization plastic deformation and vein formation in a sericite calcite rich matrix clay alteration patterns are complex within the fault zone with clay rich fault breccia enriched in smectite illite and kaolinite relative to the kaolinite and illite dominant in the host rock whole rock geochemical analyses show that the fault related rocks are depleted in fe na k al mg and si relative to the host rock the fault zone exhibits depressed electrical resistivity values by 10 100 ohm m relative to the wall rock values of vp and vs values that are 0 30 and 0 40 km s 10 20 less than protolith values the spontaneous potential logs indicate that the fault zone has increased freshwater content relative to formation waters wellbore based measurements of vp and vs in fault related rocks to enable us to calculate values of young s modulus from 16 2 to 44 9 gpa and poisson s ratio for the fault zone of 0 263 to 0 393 the protolith has young s modulus of 55 4 gpa and a poisson s ratio of 0 242 lowest calculated values of young s modulus and highest calculated values of poisson s ratio correspond to fault breccia with increased porosity high fluid content and low resistivity values taken together these data show that the shallow portion of the mozumi fault consists of a complex zone of anastomosing narrow slip zones that bound broad zones of damage fluid rock alteration and deformation created altered fault related rocks which have resulted in overall reduced interval velocities of the fault zone these data indicate that seismic waves traveling along the interface or internally reflected in the fault zone would encounter rocks of differing and reduced elastic properties relative to the host rocks but that in detail material properties within the fault may vary

microstructural evolution of an incipient fault zone in opalinus clay insights from an optical and electron microscopic study of ion beam polished samples from the main fault in the mt terri underground research laboratory abstract slickensided shear surfaces are ubiquitous in many fault zones however the internal structure the micromechanics and the evolution of these structures are not fully understood and the contributions of crystal plasticity grain boundary sliding microfracturing solution precipitation and mineral transformation under different conditions are subject of debate we studied well preserved core samples from the main fault an up to 3 m wide zone of approximately 10 m offset in the mont terri underground research laboratory ch a site to evaluate long term safety of radioactive waste disposal the drill core breaks easily along many slickensided shear surfaces indicating reverse slip which form an anastomosing network connected by branch lines broad ion beam polishing and scanning electron microscopy shows that the slickensides are invariably revealed by fracture of the drill core along a few m thick shear zone which acts as a crack guide for fracturing the samples in this zone a complex set of processes is inferred leading to extreme localization of strain development of strong particle preferred orientation the formation of nanoparticles and local precipitation of calcite veins in releasing sections in lenses between shear zones homogeneous gouge is formed with a well developed oblique foliation and removal of calcite grains by pressure solution we infer that with progressive deformation the number and density of slickensided shear surfaces increases generating tectonically derived scaly clay and more homogeneous gouge in all deformed elements of the main fault porosity is much smaller than in the undeformed opalinus clay an interesting observation is the almost complete absence of cataclastic microstructures transmission electron microscopy tem of focused ion beam lamellae of this micron wide shear zone shows a strong preferred orientation of clay minerals including nano sized illite particles in tem the shear zones envelop hard particles and confirm an almost complete loss of porosity compared to the protolith we propose that inter and transgranular microcracking pressure solution clay neoformation crystal plasticity and grain boundary sliding are important micro scale processes during the early stages of faulting in opalinus clay and thus need to be considered in extrapolating laboratory results to long term mechanical behavior

interrelation between fault zone structures and earthquake processes in order to develop capabilities for predicting earthquake processes on the basis of known fault zone structures and stress conditions we need to find relations between seismogenic structures and processes in the present paper we search for the scale dependence in various earthquake phenomena with the hope to find some structures in the earth that may control the earthquake processes among these phenomena we shall focus on 1 geologic structures which play some role in nucleation and stopping of earthquake fault rupture 2 depth ranges of the brittle seismogenic zone 3 asperities and barriers distributed over a fault plane 4 source controlled f max effect 5 nonfractal behavior of creep events and 6 temporal correlation between coda q 1 and seismicity of earthquakes with magnitude characteristic to a given area our review of various scale dependent phenomena leads us to propose a working hypothesis that the temporal change in coda q 1 may reflect the activity of creep fractures near the brittle ductile transition zone

complex faulting deduced from broadband modeling of the 28 february 1990 upland earthquake ml 5 2 the 1990 upland earthquake was one of the first sizable local events to be recorded broadband at pasadena where the green s functions appropriate for the path are known from a previous study the synthetics developed in modeling the 1988 upland sequence were available for use in rapid assessment of the activity first motion studies from the caltech usgs array data gave two solutions for the 1990 main shock based on the choice of regional velocity models although these focal mechanisms differ by less than 5 in strike and 20 rake it proved possible to further constrain the solution using these derived green s functions and a three component waveform inversion scheme we obtain from long period waves a fault plane solution of 216 77 5 0 m 0 2 5 10 24 dyne cm depth 6 km and a source duration of 1 2 sec for which the orientation and source depth are in good agreement with the first motion results of hauksson and jones 1991 comparisons of the broadband displacement records with the high pass wood anderson simulations suggests the 1990 earthquake was a complicated event with a strong asperity at depth double point source models indicate that about 30 per cent of the moment was released from a 9 km deep asperity following the initial source by 0 0 to 0 5 sec our best fitting distributed fault model indicates that the timing of our point source results is feasible assuming a reasonable rupture velocity the rupture initiated at a depth of about 6 km and propagated downward on a 3 5 by 3 5 km length by width fault both the inversion of long period waves and the distributed fault modeling indicate that the main shock did not rupture the entire depth extent of the fault defined by the aftershock zone a relatively small asperity about 1 0 km 2 with a greater than 1 kbar stress drop controls the short period wood anderson waveforms this asperity appears to be located in a region where seismicity shows a bend in the fault plane

earthquake hazard after a mainshock in california after a strong earthquake the possibility of the occurrence of either significant aftershocks or an even stronger mainshock is a continuing hazard that threatens the resumption of critical services and reoccupation of essential but partially damaged structures a stochastic parametric model allows determination of probabilities for aftershocks and larger mainshocks during intervals following the mainshock the probabilities depend strongly on the model parameters which are estimated with bayesian statistics from both the ongoing aftershock sequence and from a suite of historic california aftershock sequences probabilities for damaging aftershocks and greater mainshocks are typically well constrained after the first day of the sequence with accuracy increasing with time

stress rotation during the coalinga aftershock sequence this study considers spatial and temporal changes of the stress regime during the 1983 coalinga aftershock sequence in both cases the observed changes manifest themselves as rotations of the most compressive stress axis inversion of 165 m 3 aftershocks shows that in the southern aftershock zone the azimuth of the most compressional stress axis is oriented 24 e of north while in the northern and central zones it is oriented 51 e of north statistical analysis by use of non parametric bootstrap resampling shows that this rotation is significant at above the 95 confidence level inverting the focal mechanisms of 122 m 3 aftershocks in the central and northern aftershock zones reveals a rotation of the principal stress axes during the first 500 days after the main shock the compressional axis rotates from an azimuth of 62 e of north to 47 e of north statistical analysis by use of nonparametric bootstrap resampling shows that this rotation is just significantly different from zero at the 95 confidence level subject to the assumption that 80 of the fault planes can be correctly picked from the two nodal planes as the number of fault planes picked correctly varies from 50 random choices to 100 the significance of the rotation varies from 87 to 98 further investigation fails to find the signature of the stress changes predicted by dislocation theory in the focal mechanisms of the aftershocks active folds in the area suggest that the pre main shock stress regime had a compressional axis with a ne sw orientation thus the rotation during the aftershock sequence is thought to be a rebound from a stress anomaly induced by the main shock this stress anomaly may be causally related to the occurrence of the aftershocks

hydraulic and acoustic properties of the active alpine fault new zealand laboratory measurements on dfdp 1 drill core abstract we report on laboratory measurements of permeability and elastic wavespeed for a suite of samples obtained by drilling across the active alpine fault on the south island of new zealand as part of the first phase of the deep fault drilling project dfdp 1 we find that clay rich cataclasite and principal slip zone psz samples exhibit low permeabilities 10 18 m 2 and that the permeability of hanging wall cataclasites increases from c 10 18 m 2 to 10 15 m 2 with distance from the fault additionally the psz exhibits a markedly lower p wave velocity and young s modulus relative to the wall rocks our laboratory data are in good agreement with in situ wireline logging measurements and are consistent with the identification of an alteration zone surrounding the psz defined by observations of core samples the properties of this zone and the low permeability of the psz likely govern transient hydrologic processes during earthquake slip including thermal pressurization and dilatancy strengthening

distributed damage faulting and friction we present a formulation for mechanical modeling of geological processes in the seismogenic crust using damage rheology the seismogenic layer is treated as an elastic medium where distributed damage modifying the elastic stiffness evolves as a function of the deformation history the model damage rheology is based on thermodynamic principles and fundamental observations of rock deformation the theoretical analysis leads to a kinetic equation for damage evolution having two principal coefficients the first is a criterion for the transition between strength degradation and recovering healing and is related to friction the second is a rate coefficient of damage evolution which can have different values or functional forms for positive degradation and negative healing evolution we constrain these coefficients by fitting model predictions to laboratory data including coefficient of friction in sawcut setting intact strength in fracture experiments first yielding in faulting experiments under three dimensional strain onset and evolution of acoustic emission and dynamic instability the model damage rheology accounts for many realistic features of three dimensional deformation fields associated with an earthquake cycle these include aseismic deformation gradual strength degradation development of process zones and branching faults around high damage areas strain localization brittle failure and state dependent friction some properties of the model damage rheology e g cyclic stick slip behavior with possible accompanying creep are illustrated with simplified analytical results the developments of the paper provide an internally consistent framework for simulating long histories of crustal deformation and studying the coupled evolution of regional earthquakes and faults this is done in a follow up work

the 3 december 1988 pasadena california earthquake evidence for strike slip motion on the raymond fault the pasadena earthquake m l 4 9 occurred on 3 december 1988 at a depth of 16 km the hypocenters of the earthquake and its aftershocks define a east northeast striking steeply northwest dipping surface that projects up to the active surficial trace of the raymond fault one of the nodal planes of the focal mechanism of the earthquake parallels the raymond fault with left lateral strike slip movement on that plane and is consistent with geomorphic and paleoseismic evidence that the raymond fault is dominantly a left lateral strike slip fault the existence of a component of sinistral slip along the raymond fault had been suspected prior to the earthquake but the northward dip of the fault and the prominent scarp along the western portion of its trace had led most workers to conclude that slip along the fault was dominantly reverse

geodetic exploration of the elastic properties across and within the northern san andreas fault zone abstract relying on densely spaced gps data collected between 1996 and 2007 and on insar data spanning the 1992 2001 time period we explore the effects of lateral rheological heterogeneities across the san andreas fault near point reyes on the interseismic velocity field we evaluate heterogeneous elastic dislocation models including an asymmetric model with contrasting rigidities on either side of the san andreas fault and models with a narrow compliant fault zone that lead to high near fault strain rates we show that we cannot resolve a compliant zone from interseismic surface displacement measurements unless independent constraints on the locking depth exist we infer an 18 1 mm yr 1 slip rate on the san andreas fault with a 10 2 km locking depth and a 40 higher rigidity to the sw of the fault at bodega bay gps and edm data suggest a compliant zone on the saf with a 50 to 60 rigidity decrease but 25 km further south we find no evidence for a weak fault zone this suggests substantial variability in fault zone properties along the san andreas fault

coseismic stress changes induced by the 1989 loma prieta california earthquake earthquake focal mechanisms from before and after the 1989 loma prieta california earthquake are used to infer the coseismic stress change before the main shock most earthquakes correspond to right lateral slip on planes sub parallel to the san andreas fault and imply a generally n s most compressional stress axis and a vertical intermediate stress axis aftershocks within the main shock rupture zone however display almost every style and orientation of faulting implying an extremely heterogeneous stress field this suggests that the main shock relieved most if not all of the shear stress acting on its fault plane aftershocks that lie on the perimeter of the rupture agree with spatially uniform stress states but only when considered in three groups north south and above the main shock rupture area in each of these areas the stress state may reflect stress transfer by the main shock

source inversion of the 1988 upland california earthquake determination of a fault plane for a small event abstract we examined short period p waves to investigate if waveform data could be used to determine which of two nodal planes was the actual fault plane for a small m l 4 6 earthquake near upland california we removed path and site complications by choosing a small aftershock m l 2 7 as an empirical green function the main shock p waves were deconvolved by using the empirical green function to produce simple far field displacement pulses we used a least squares method to invert these pulses for the slip distribution on a finite fault both nodal planes strike 125 dip 85 and strike 221 dip 40 of the first motion focal mechanism were tested at various rupture velocities the southwest trending fault plane consistently gave better fitting solutions than the southeast trending plane we determined a moment of 4 2 10 22 dyne cm the rupture velocity and thus the source area could not be well resolved but if we assume a reasonable rupture velocity of 0 87 times the shear wave velocity we obtain a source area of 0 97 km 2 and a stress drop of 38 bars choice of a southwest trending fault plane is consistent with the trend of the nearby portion of the transverse ranges frontal fault zone and indicates left lateral motion this method provides a way to determine the fault plane for small earthquakes that have no surface rupture and no obvious trend in aftershock locations

time dependent changes in failure stress following thrust earthquakes two dimensional 2 d viscoelastic finite element models were used to calculate the time dependent changes in coulomb failure stresses following thrust earthquakes due to respective effects of relaxation of viscous lower crust or upper mantle and postseismic creep on the main fault or its downdip extension results suggest that thrust earthquakes cause a coseismic increase in coulomb stress along antithetic lobes normal to the slip plane following a quake creep processes that reduce stresses in a ductile lower crust or upper mantle are calculated to cause a transfer of stress to the upper crust under certain conditions transfer of stress may lead to a further buildup of high coulomb stress along the base of the upper crust potentially shortening the time to failure of other faults in the region the conditions under which an antithetic lobe of high coulomb stress are favored to expand at the base of the upper crust postseismically within a few decades include the following the lower crust or upper mantle has an effective viscosity not greater than 1019 pa s the thrust fault has a moderate dip angle 40 50 the brittle ductile transition is deep enough to provide a corridor at the base of the upper crust for expansion and the crust has a low apparent coefficient of friction 0 2 postseismic increases in coulomb stress within the upper crust may also be caused by aseismic creep on the fault stress changes due to this mechanism are maximized with a high apparent coefficient of friction analysis of experimentally determined non newtonian flow laws suggests that wet granitic quartz and feldspar aggregates may have a viscosity of the order of 1019 pa s the calculated rate of stress transfer from a viscous lower crust or upper mantle to the upper crust becomes faster with increasing values of the power law exponent and the presence of a regional compressive strain rate results of this 2 d analysis suggest a potentially important role of viscous flow in controlling time dependent postseismic stress changes that warrant further investigation using 3 d viscoelastic analysis

the october 17 1989 loma prieta california earthquake and its aftershocks geometry of the sequence from high resolution locations hypocenters of the loma prieta sequence form a dipping zone that rises from the mainshock hypocenter and is parallel to the mainshock nodal plane most aftershocks cluster around the perimeter of the zone surrounding a relatively aseismic center which approximates the region of mainshock rupture at its southeastern end the dipping aftershock zone warps into a vertical surface that corresponds to the san andreas fault in the central and northwestern parts of the zone at depths above 10 km the aftershocks define numerous disjoint fault structures the large component of reverse slip observed in this event agrees with a simple model for slip on a dipping plane within a compressional fault bend we do not believe that the loma prieta earthquake occurred on the sargent fault however we are unable to conclude whether it ruptured the principal plate boundary fault or a less frequently active fault

earthquake rupture at focal depth part ii mechanics of the 2004 m2 2 earthquake along the pretorius fault tautona mine south africa we analyze here the rupture mechanics of the 2004 m2 2 earthquake based on our observations and measurements at focal depth part i this event ruptured the archean pretorius fault that has been inactive for at least 2 ga and was reactivated due to mining operations down to a depth of 3 6 km depth thus it was expected that the pretorius fault zone will fail similarly to an intact rock body independently of its ancient healed structure our analysis reveals a few puzzling features of the m2 2 rupture zone 1 the earthquake ruptured four non parallel cataclasite bearing segments of the ancient pretorius fault zone 2 slip occurred almost exclusively along the cataclasite host rock contacts of the slipping segments 3 the local in situ stress field is not favorable to slip along any of these four segments and 4 the archean cataclasite is pervasively sintered and cemented to become brittle and strong to resolve these observations we conducted rock mechanics experiments on the fault rocks and host rocks and found a strong mechanical contrast between the quartzitic cataclasite zones with elastic brittle rheology and the host quartzites with damage elastic plastic rheology the finite element modeling of a heterogeneous fault zone with the measured mechanical contrast indicates that the slip is likely to reactivate the ancient cataclasite bearing segments as observed due to the strong mechanical contrast between the cataclasite and the host quartzitic rock

precise relocations and stress change calculations for the upland earthquake sequence in southern california we relocate earthquakes that occurred near the 1988 ml 4 7 and the 1990 ml 5 5 upland california earthquakes to map the fault geometry of the poorly defined san jose fault and to test the static stress triggering hypothesis for this sequence we adopt the l1 norm waveform cross correlation method of shearer 1997 to obtain precise relocations for 1573 events between 1981 and 1997 in the upland area to limit computation time we only perform waveform cross correlation on 60 of the nearest neighbors of each relocated event our final relocations show two linear features the first is imaged by the locations of the initial month of aftershocks of the 1988 upland earthquake which delineate a fault with a dip angle of 45 between 7 and 9 km depth consistent with the mainshock focal mechanism the second linear feature is a plane dipping at about 74 from 2 to 9 km depth which is illuminated by both the 1988 and 1990 upland sequences in agreement with the inferred location of the san jose fault at depth however below 9 km the event locations become more diffuse giving rise to two different interpretations of the fate of the san jose fault at depth one possibility is that the fault shallows at depth consistent with our relocations but not with the focal mechanism of a ml 4 7 deep aftershock alternatively the fault may be offset at depth by the more shallow dipping fault strand broken during the 1988 earthquake using these inferred fault geometries we compute stress changes resulting from slip during the mainshocks to test whether the relocated aftershocks are consistent with the hypothesis that more aftershocks occur where the change in static coulomb failure stress is positive on faults optimally oriented for failure this requires an extension of previous models of changes in the failure stress to three dimensions and arbitrary fault orientation we find that patterns of change in coulomb failure stress differ little between the different fault geometries all are nearly symmetric about the fault and so do not match the aftershock distribution in which most of the off fault events occur to one side of the fault plane

the july 1986 oceanside ml 5 3 earthquake sequence in the continental borderland southern california an earthquake of m l 5 3 occurred at 32 58 7 n 117 51 5 w southwest of oceanside in san diego county at 13 47 13 july 1986 ut this main shock was followed by an extensive aftershock sequence with 55 events of m l 3 0 during july 1986 the epicenters of the main shock and aftershocks are located at the northern end of the san diego trough bahia soledad fault zone sdt bs where it changes strike from northwest to a more westerly direction through a left offset or a bend in the fault the northwest striking sdt bs is one of three strike slip fault systems that constitute the offshore agua blanca fault system the spatial distribution of the aftershocks indicates a unilateral 7 to 9 km long rupture to the east southeast away from the epicenter of the main shock the focal mechanism of the main shock also has an east southeast striking and south dipping plane with mostly reverse movement on it focal mechanisms of the m l 3 0 aftershocks show both reverse and strike slip movement the reverse focal mechanisms indicate that this sequence may have occurred on a thrust fault that provides for a left stepping offset or a bend in the san diego trough fault as movement is transferred to the west along the santa cruz catalina island escarpment some of the aftershocks that are located to the southeast of the main shock and have strike slip focal mechanisms suggest activation of the northwest trending san diego trough fault a stress inversion of the focal mechanism data shows that the maximum principal stress determined from the focal mechanisms of the main shock and 22 aftershocks that occurred within 36 hours of the main shock has an azimuth of s30 w plunging 18 the maximum principal stress determined from 30 aftershocks that occurred from 15 july to 2 october 1986 has an azimuth of s20 w plunging 18 the values the measure of the relative sizes of the principal stresses are approximately 0 07 and 0 1 respectively indicating that the intermediate and minimum principal stress are of similar magnitude the results of the stress inversion and the focal mechanisms that showed reverse faulting suggest that the inner continental borderland offshore from oceanside is not currently a pure strike slip tectonic regime but rather a strike slip mixed with reverse faulting regime when the 52 aftershock focal mechanisms are divided into four groups and the stress inversion is repeated the change in stress can be described as a progressive counter clockwise rotation of 14 of the orientation of the maximum principal stress to a more southerly direction with the greatest change in stress orientation observed shortly after the main shock the abundance of aftershocks may be related to the large temporal variation in stress orientation that in turn may have resulted from the small stress drop of the main shock

fault architecture and deformation mechanisms in exhumed analogues of seismogenic carbonate bearing thrusts abstract faults in carbonates are well known sources of upper crustal seismicity throughout the world in the outer sector of the northern apennines ancient carbonate bearing thrusts are exposed at the surface and represent analogues of structures generating seismicity at depth we describe the geometry internal structure and deformation mechanisms of three large displacement thrusts from the km scale to the microscale fault architecture and deformation mechanisms are all influenced by the lithology of faulted rocks where thrusts cut across bedded or marly limestones fault zones are thick tens of metres and display foliated rocks s cc tectonites and or ypr cataclasites characterized by intense pressure solution deformation in massive limestones faulting occurs in localized narrow zones that exhibit abundant brittle deformation a general model for a heterogeneous carbonate bearing thrust is proposed and discussed fault structure affected by stratigraphic heterogeneity and inherited structures influences the location of geometrical asperities and fault strain rates the presence of clay minerals and the strain rate experienced by fault rocks modulate the shifting from cataclasis dominated towards pressure solution dominated deformation resulting structural heterogeneity of these faults may mirror their mechanical and seismic behaviour we suggest that seismic asperities are located at the boundaries of massive limestones in narrow zones of localized slip whereas weak shear zones constitute slowly slipping portions of the fault reflecting other types of aseismic behaviour

microearthquake imaging of the parkfield asperity microearthquake data from a downhole seismometer network on the san andreas fault appear to outline two aseismic asperities that may correspond to the locations of the foreshocks and main shocks of the parkfield characteristic earthquakes the source parameters of the microearthquakes show that a few of the earthquakes have significantly higher stress drops than most furthermore the magnitude frequency statistics suggest that at local magnitude 0 6 the cumulative number of small events begins to fall off the usual gutenberg richter b 1 relation in which the number of events increases exponentially with decreasing magnitude the downhole seismometer data establish a baseline from which the evolution of the earthquake process at parkfield can be monitored and suggest that different mechanical conditions than those that lead to the typical gutenberg richter relation may be operating for the smallest of parkfield microearthquakes

field characterization of elastic properties across a fault zone reactivated by fluid injection we studied the elastic properties of a fault zone intersecting the opalinus clay formation at 300m depth in the mont terri underground research laboratory switzerland four controlled water injection experiments were performed in borehole straddle intervals set at successive locations across the fault zone a three component displacement sensor which allowed capturing the borehole wall movements during injection was used to estimate the elastic properties of representative locations across the fault zone from the host rock to the damage zone to the fault core young s moduli were estimated by both an analytical approach and numerical finite difference modeling results show a decrease in young s modulus from the host rock to the damage zone by a factor of 5 and from the damage zone to the fault core by a factor of 2 in the host rock our results are in reasonable agreement with laboratory data showing a strong elastic anisotropy characterized by the direction of the plane of isotropy parallel to the laminar structure of the shale formation in the fault zone strong rotations of the direction of anisotropy can be observed the plane of isotropy can be oriented either parallel to bedding when few discontinuities are present parallel to the direction of the main fracture family intersecting the zone and possibly oriented parallel or perpendicular to the fractures critically oriented for shear reactivation when repeated past rupture along these plane has created a zone of weakness

microfracturing damage and failure of brittle granites 1 the evolution of stress induced damage and the eventual brittle failure are experimentally analyzed for mount scott granite of oklahoma we quantify the damage intensity in two methods and directly compare model predictions and actual damage the 14 samples of the medium grain size granite were loaded triaxially at dry conditions room temperature and under 41 mpa confining pressure microfractures were mapped in five samples and the majority of them 80 belong to two groups tensile microfractures trending subparallel to the loading axis and shear microfractures trending 11 40 off the loading axis the tensile microfractures dominate the low stress stage and they remain intragranular with a stress increase the relative density of shear microfractures increases with increasing stresses and they formed elongated intergranular zones of coalescing microfractures we compared two independent values of damage intensity 1 the macroscopic experimentally measured reduction of the deformation modulus and 2 the expected reduction of this modulus calculated with several damage models for the density of the mapped microfractures our fracture density data best fit the model of noninteracting cracks of kachanov 1992

a kinematic model of southern california we propose a kinematic model for southern california based on late quaternary slip rates and orientations of major faults in the region internally consistent motions are determined assuming that these faults bound rigid blocks relative to north america most of california west of the san andreas fault is moving parallel to the san andreas fault through the transverse ranges and not parallel to the motion of the pacific plate this is accomplished by counterclockwise rotation of california south of the san andreas fault and by the westward movement of central california north of the gar lock fault the velocities of the blocks are calculated along several paths in southern california that begin in the mojave desert and end off the california coast a path that crosses the western transverse ranges accumulates the accepted relative north america pacific plate velocity whereas paths to the north and south result in a significant missing component of motion this implies the existence of a zone of active deformation in southern california that is interpreted to include the western transverse ranges and northwest trending predominately strike slip faults close to the coast both north and south of the transverse ranges strain on this system accounts for about a third of the total north america pacific plate motion

the 1987 whittier narrows earthquake sequence in los angeles southern california seismological and tectonic analysis the october 1 1987 whittier narrows earthquake m l 5 9 was located at 34 2 96 n 118 4 86 w at a depth of 14 6 0 5 km in the northeastern los angeles basin the focal mechanism of the mainshock derived from first motion polarities shows pure thrust motion on west striking nodal planes with dips of 25 5 and 65 5 respectively the aftershocks define an approximately circular surface that dips gently to the north centered at the hypocenter of the mainshock with a diameter of 4 6 km hence the spatial distribution of the mainshock and aftershocks as well as the focal mechanisms of the mainshock indicate that the causative fault was a 25 north dipping thrust fault striking west and is confined to depths from 10 to 16 km although most of the 59 aftershock focal mechanisms presented here document a complex sequence of faulting they are consistent with deformation of the hanging wall caused by the thrust faulting observed in the mainshock a cluster of reverse faulting events on north striking planes occurred within hours after the mainshock 2 km to the west of the mainshock the largest aftershock m l 5 3 occurred on october 4 and showed mostly right lateral faulting on the same north northwest striking plane within the hanging wall similarly several left lateral focal mechanisms are observed near the eastern edge of the mainshock rupture the earthquake and calibration blast arrival time data were inverted to obtain two refined crustal velocity models and a set of station delays when relocating the blast using the new models and delays the absolute hypocentral location bias is less than 0 5 km the mainshock was followed by nearly 500 locatable aftershocks which is a small number of aftershocks for this magnitude mainshock the decay rate of aftershock occurrences with time was fast while the b value was low 0 67 0 05 for a los angeles basin sequence

slip partitioning of the calaveras fault california and prospects for future earthquakes examination of main shock and microearthquake data from the calaveras fault during the last 20 years reveals that main shock hypocenters occur at depths of 8 9 km near the base of the zone of microearthquakes the spatial pattern of pre main shock microseismicity surrounding the coyote lake and morgan hill hypocenters is similar to the pattern of the post main shock microseismicity microseismicity extends between depths of 4 and 10 km and defines zones of concentrated microseismicity and aseismic zones estimates of the fault regions which slipped during the coyote lake and morgan hill earthquakes as derived from seismic radiation coincide with zones which are otherwise aseismic we propose that these persistent aseismic zones represent stuck patches which slip only during moderate earthquakes from the pattern of microearthquake locations we recognize six aseismic zones where we expect future main shocks will rupture the calaveras fault from an analysis of historic seismic data we establish the main shock rupture history for each aseismic zone and identify two zones that are the most likely sites for the next m 5 earthquakes the first zone is located near gilroy and was last ruptured by a m5 2 earthquake in 1949 the second zone is located south of calaveras reservoir and north of the 1988 m5 1 alum rock earthquake it has not slipped seismically since at least 1903 and the size of the aseismic region is sufficiently large to sustain a m5 5 earthquake

seismicity of the prince william sound region for over thirty years following the 1964 great alaskan earthquake in this paper we present results of body wave form modeling of 19 earthquakes generally m b 5 7 occurring from 1964 to 1983 in the vicinity and down dip of the large asperity within the prince william sound region that ruptured in 1964 these data are supplemented with source parameters from studies of more recent post 1980 events our results suggest that moderate earthquakes which occurred in the region between 1964 and 1984 were predominantly located in the vicinity of the prince william sound asperity and could be assigned to two groups the first group consists of events occurring above the plate interface within prince william sound along reverse faults or low angle thrusts the second group occurs at 35 to 60 km depth in the region north of prince william sound and represents normal to normal oblique faulting within the subducted pacific crust or upper mantle these earthquakes occur below the northern edge of the 1964 asperity in a region where the subducting plate undergoes a rapid change in strike and dip a third group of events occurs in cook inlet well down dip of the 1964 asperity and below the plate interface these events exhibit a variety of mechanisms and many at depths of 50 to 70 km may be associated with complexities in the shape of the downgoing slab most of the cook inlet events occurred after 1984 whereas a few events of similar magnitude have occurred in the vicinity of the prince william sound asperity since 1984

aftershock patterns and main shock faulting we have compared aftershock patterns following several moderate to large earthquakes with the corresponding distributions of coseismic slip obtained from previous analyses of the recorded strong ground motion and teleseismic waveforms well located aftershock hypocenters are projected onto the main shock fault plane and their positions are examined relative to the zones of coseismic displacement indicated by the estimated distributions of main shock slip we also examine the aftershock focal mechanisms when these data are available in an attempt to identify possible patterns of secondary faulting within the aftershock zone our results are consistent with a hypothesis of aftershock occurrence that requires a secondary redistribution of stress following primary failure on the earthquake fault aftershocks following the earthquakes examined in this study occur mostly outside of or near the edges of the source areas indicated by the patterns of main shock slip the spatial distribution of aftershocks reflects either a continuation of slip in the outer regions of the areas of maximum coseismic displacement or the activation of subsidiary faults within the volume surrounding the boundaries of main shock rupture

the 1988 and 1990 upland earthquakes left lateral faulting adjacent to the central transverse ranges two earthquakes m l 4 6 and m l 5 2 occurred at almost the same location in upland southern california in june 1988 and february 1990 and had similar strike slip focal mechanisms with left lateral motion on a northeast striking plane the focal mechanisms and aftershock locations showed that the causative fault was the san jose fault an 18 km long concealed fault that splays west southwest from the frontal fault of the central transverse ranges left lateral strike slip faults adjacent to the frontal faults may play an important role in the deformation of the transverse ranges and the los angeles basin as suggested by these upland earthquakes the left lateral strike slip 1988 m l 4 9 pasadena earthquake on the raymond fault 30 km to the west of upland and scattered background seismicity along other active left lateral faults these faults may transfer slip away from part of the frontal fault toward the south alternatively these faults could represent secondary faulting related to the termination of the northwest striking right lateral strike slip faults to the south of the range front the 1988 and 1990 upland earthquakes ruptured abutting or possibly overlapping segments of the san jose fault the edges of the overlapping aftershock zones which are sharply defined together with background seismicity outline a 14 km long aseismic segment of the san jose fault the 1988 mainshock originated at 9 5 km depth and caused aftershocks between 5 and 12 km in contrast the 1990 mainshock focus occurred at the top of its aftershock zone at 5 km and caused aftershocks down to 13 km depth these deep aftershocks tapered off within 2 weeks the rate of occurrence of aftershocks in magnitude time space was the same for both sequences the state of stress reflected in the focal mechanisms of the aftershocks is identical to that determined from background activity and did not change with time during the aftershock sequence the constant stress state suggests that the 1988 and 1990 events did not completely release all the stored slip on that segment of the fault the presence of 14 km of unbroken fault the abrupt temporal termination of deep aftershocks and the constant stress state all suggest that a future moderate sized earthquake m l 6 0 6 5 on the san jose fault is possible with a rupture length of at least 14 km and possibly 18 km