a new attenuation relation for strong ground motion in japan based on recorded data following the 1995 hyogo ken nanbu kobe earthquake the japanese government in an effort to prevent future earthquake disasters installed networks consisting of a large number of strong motion observation stations further national seismic hazard maps were made available to the public on an internet website in march 2005 by the headquarters for earthquake research promotion however these maps indicate only the local seismic intensity for japan as empirically con verted from predicted peak velocity in consolidated soils for various applications other strong motion indexes such as the response spectral acceleration are required in this study a database of whole japanese strong ground motion records between 1963 and 2003 is established in order to identify a new standard attenuation relation for japan for response acceleration as well as peak value it is usually very difficult to determine a suitable model form due to the large variability of strong motion data and correlation among the model variables because the strong coupling of variables in an attenuation model and the statistical power of the data is often not large enough to determine the necessity of these parameters therefore in this study our model has only three variables earthquake magnitude shortest distance to the seismic fault plane and focal depth to improve predictions given by the model site correction terms are adopted and additional terms for correcting regional anomalous seismic intensity with respect to the base model are determined the good fit between the model and observed strong motion records suggests that the new model is reasonably robust

isotopic fractionation at the base of polar and sub polar glaciers by g s boulton school of environmental sciences university of east anglia norwich nr4 7tj england and fysisch geografisch en bodemkundig laboratorium university of amsterdam amsterdam holland and u spring electrowatt ch 8022 zurich switzerland abstract the melting of ice and the subsequent production of regelation ice from the melt water in a large scale closed system beneath sub polar and polar glaciers produces progressive fractionation between the melt water and the re gelation ice derived from it a theory is developed which predicts the change of isotopic composition in regelation ice in a subglacial zone of freezing and in the water from which it is derived the theory is tested against data from the byrd station bore hole in west antarctica and applied to explain features of the isotopic composition in several other glaciers where thick sequences of regelation ice have formed the principal conclusions are

along arc segmentation and interaction of subducting ridges with the lesser antilles subduction forearc crust revealed by mcs imaging highlights we image the deep structure of the lesser antilles subduction zone by mcs profiles the complex deformation of the outer forearc crust is induced by subducting ridges we discuss also the effect of the subducting compressive nam sam plate boundary along strike variations of the seaward edge of the outer forearc crust are discovered the updip limit proxy of the seismogenic part reaches 20 km trenchwards than believed abstract we present the results from a new grid of deep penetration multichannel seismic mcs profiles over the 280 km long north central segment of the lesser antilles subduction zone the 14 dip lines and 7 strike lines image the topographical variations of i the subduction interplate decollement ii the top of the arcward subducting atlantic oceanic crust toc under the huge accretionary wedge up to 7 km thick and iii the trenchward dipping basement of the deeply buried forearc backstop of the caribbean upper plate the four northernmost long dip lines of this new mcs grid reveal several kilometre high topographic variations of the toc beneath the accretionary wedge offshore guadeloupe and antigua islands they are located in the prolongation of those mapped on the atlantic seafloor entering subduction such as the barracuda ridge this mcs grid also provides evidences on unexpected huge along strike topographical variation of the backstop basement and of the deformation style affecting the outer forearc crust and sediments their mapping clearly indicates two principal areas of active deformation in the prolongation of the major barracuda and tiburon ridges and also other forearc basement highs that correspond to the prolongation of smaller oceanic basement highs recently mapped on the atlantic seafloor although different in detail the two main deforming forearc domains share similarities in style the imaged deformation of the sedimentary stratification reveals a time and space dependent faulting by successive warping and unwarping which deformation can be readily attributed to the forearc backstop sweeping over the two obliquely oriented elongated and localized topographical ridges the induced faulting producing vertical scarps in this transport does not require a regional arc parallel extensional regime as proposed for the inner forearc domain and may support a partitioned tectonic deformation such as in the case of an outer forearc sliver a contrasted reflectivity of the sedimentary layering at the transition between the outer forearc and accretionary domains was resolved and used to define the seaward edge of the outer forearc basement interpreted as being possibly a proxy to the updip limit of the interplate seismogenic zone its mapping documents along arc variations of some tens of kilometres of the subduction backstop with respect to the negative gravity anomaly commonly taken as marking the subduction trench with the exception of the southernmost part the newly mapped updip limit reaches 25 km closer to the trench thus indicating a possible wider seismogenic zone over almost the whole length of the study area

shear margins in glaciers and ice sheets analytical and numerical techniques are used to examine the flow response of a sloped slab of power law fluid power n subjected to basal boundary conditions that vary spatially across the flow direction as for example near an ice stream margin with planar basal topography the primary assumption is that basal shear stress is proportional to the basal speed time a spatially variable slip resistance the ratio of mean basal speed to the speed originating from shearing through the thickness denoted as r gives a measure of how slippery the bed is the principal conclusion is that a localized disturbance in slip resistance affects the basal stress and speed in a zone spread over a greater width of the flow in units of ice thickness h the spatial scale of spreading is proportional to a single dimensionless number r n r n 1 1 n 1 derived from n and r the consequence for a shear zone above a sharp jump in slip resistance is that the shearing is spread out over a boundary layer with a width proportional to r n for an ice stream caused by a band of low slip resistance with a half width of wh the margins influence velocity and stress in the central part of the band depending on r n in comparison to w three regimes can be identified which for n 3 are quantified as follows low r defined as r 3 1w for which the boundary layers from both sides bridge across the full flow width and the driving stress in the center is supported almost entirely by side drag intermediate r for which the driving stress in the center is supported by a combination of basal and side drag shear zones that are narrower than predicted on the basis of this theory r 3 would require localized softening of the ice to explain the concentration of deformation at a shorter scale

basal ice accretion and debris entrainment within the coastal ice margin law dome antarctica basal ice stratigraphy in coastal ice cliffs at the law dome margin has revealed the basal accretion of clean and debris bearing ice marine congelation ice and granular marine ice inland of the margin co isotopic analysis of 18 o and d isotopes together with solute chemistry were applied to determine the modes of accretion and debris entrainment

gps estimate of relative motion between the caribbean and south american plates and geologic implications for trinidad and venezuela global positioning system gps data from eight sites on the caribbean plate and five sites on the south american plate were inverted to derive an angular velocity vector describing present day relative plate motion both the caribbean and south american velocity data fit rigid plate models to within 1 2 mm yr the gps velocity uncertainty the caribbean plate moves approximately due east relative to south america at a rate of 20 mm yr along most of the plate boundary significantly faster than the nuvel 1a model prediction but with similar azimuth pure wrenching is concentrated along the approximately east striking seismic el pilar fault in venezuela in contrast transpression occurs along the 068 trending central range warm springs fault in trinidad which is aseismic possibly locked and oblique to local plate motion

response of sediment to ice sheet loading in northwestern germany effective stresses and glacier bed stability laboratory tests on sediment over ridden by the last ice sheet in northwestern germany reveal very low ice induced pre consolidation and high palaeo pore water pressures sediment consolidation at the base of the glacier was largely controlled by hydraulic properties of the substratum generally low permeabilities of the bed caused sustained high pore water pressure in over ridden sediments close to the flotation point this implies a serious possibility of hydraulic lifting of the ice sheet it is believed that the reduced basal coupling limited the transformation of glacier shear stress on to the bed sediments which is indicated by a lack of sedimentological evidence for widespread pervasive bed deformation ice motion was probably focused at the glacier sole by some combination of sliding and ploughing however isolated spots with deformation occur so that the subglacial system in the study area can be characterized as a stable deforming mosaic

current block motions and strain accumulation on active faults in the caribbean the caribbean plate and its boundaries with north and south america marked by subduction and large intra arc strike slip faults are a natural laboratory for the study of strain partitioning and interseismic plate coupling in relation to large earthquakes here we use most of the available campaign and continuous gps measurements in the caribbean to derive a regional velocity field expressed in a consistent reference frame we use this velocity field as input to a kinematic model where surface velocities results from the rotation of rigid blocks bounded by locked faults accumulating interseismic strain while allowing for partial locking along the lesser antilles puerto rico and hispaniola subduction we test various block geometries guided by previous regional kinematic models and geological information on active faults our findings refine a number of previously established results in particular slip rates on the strike slip faults systems bounding the caribbean plate to the north and south and the kinematics of the gonave microplate our much improved gps velocity field in the lesser antilles compared to previous studies does not require the existence of a distinct northern lesser antilles block and excludes more than 3 mm yr of strain accumulation on the lesser antilles puerto rico subduction plate interface which appears essentially uncoupled the transition from a coupled to an uncoupled subduction coincides with a transition in the long term geological behavior of the caribbean plate margin from compressional hispaniola to extensional puerto rico and lesser antilles a characteristics shared with several other subduction systems

field survey and numerical simulation of the 21 november 2004 tsunami at les saintes lesser antilles 1 although a few historical tsunamis have occurred in the lesser antilles region their characteristics are poorly documented due to the ephemeral nature of the associated signatures recently a tsunami was generated following a magnitude mw 6 3 earthquake that occurred on 21 november 2004 between guadeloupe and dominica this was one of the two largest historical earthquakes recorded in this area in the last century a field survey allowed us to characterize the tsunami which affected les saintes the southern coast of basse terre guadeloupe and northern dominica we used these data to constrain a numerical simulation of tsunami generation and propagation the 21 november tsunami provides a unique opportunity to further constrain the models of brittle deformation in the back arc region proposed by previous tectonic investigations to characterize the tsunami signatures and to improve regional hazards evaluation

far field simulation of tsunami propagation in the pacific ocean impact on the marquesas islands french polynesia the islands in the marquesas archipelago are most exposed to far field tsunamis in french polynesia four recent earthquakes located at the pacific rim kurile 1994 chile 1995 mexico 1995 and peru 1996 earthquakes generated trans pacific tsunamis and caused contrasting inundations in several inhabited marquesian bays the aim of this study is to better understand the amplification phenomena observed in the marquesas islands and to improve the risk assessment we present here numerical simulations of these four tsunamis by means of a finite difference model solving the equations of tsunami propagation at different scales the water heights computed in the bays are in excellent agreement with the available observations and thus validate our numerical method these numerical results allow us to determine 1 which propagation azimuths are dangerous for the whole marquesas archipelago and 2 the behavior of each studied bay amplitude frequency in response to tsunami waves we observe that the seismogenic subduction zone along south america is likely to define one of the most dangerous tsunami generation areas for the marquesas archipelago owing to the source geometries and to the trapping of the tsunami energy by bathymetric features in the southern pacific ocean fracture zones seamount chains

actively evolving microplate formation by oblique collision and sideways motion along strike slip faults an example from the northeastern caribbean plate margin abstract the pattern of folding faulting and late quaternary coral reef uplift rates in western and central hispaniola haiti and dominican republic suggest that the elongate gonave microplate a 190 000 km2 area of the northeastern caribbean plate is in the process of shearing off the caribbean plate and accreting to the north american plate late cenozoic transpression between the southeastern bahama platform and the caribbean plate in hispaniola has inhibited the eastward motion of the northeastern corner of the plate transpression is manifested in western and central hispaniola by the formation of regional scale folds that correspond to present day anticlinal topographic mountain chains continuous with offshore anticlinal ridges areas of most rapid quaternary uplift determined from onland coral reefs 125 ka and younger coincide with the axial traces of these folds offshore data suggest recent folding and faulting of the seafloor onshore reef data do not conclusively require late quaternary folding but demonstrate that tectonic uplift rates of the axial areas of the anticlines decrease from the northwest peninsula of haiti 0 37 mm yr to to the central part of the coast of western haiti 0 19 mm yr to the south central part of western haiti 0 mm yr formation of the 1200 km long enriquillo plantain garden walton fault zone as a bypass strike slip fault has isolated the southern edge of the gonave microplate and is allowing continued unimpeded eastward motion of a smaller caribbean plate past the zone of late neogene convergence and quaternary uplift of coral reefs in hispaniola offshore seismic reflection data from the jamaica passage the marine strait separating jamaica and haiti show that the enriquillo plantain garden fault zone forms a narrow but deep active fault bounded trough beneath the passage the active fault is continuous with active faults mapped onshore in western haiti and eastern jamaica the bathymetric deep is present because the jamaica passage fault segment represents a 50 km wide transtensional left step of the fault trace between haiti and jamaica onshore satellite imagery and field observations suggest that the enriquillo plantain garden fault forms a continuous trace extending from central hispaniola east of lake enriquillo dominican republic to the westernmost end of the southern peninsula of haiti the regional lineament corresponds to a recent fault scarp in quaternary alluvium of the clonard pull apart basin in the central part of the southern peninsula of haiti and suggests that at least this part of the lineament has undergone recent slip calmus 1983 has suggested a total offset of 30 50 km of the enriquillo plantain garden fault zone in the southern peninsula of haiti using the apparent offset of lithologic units seismic reflection data from lake enriquillo document recent deformation of quaternary lake sediments where the lineament crosses the lake leveling of the crest of a late holocene coral reef and associated algal tufa around lake enriquillo demonstrate late holocene vertical movement and tilting in a 1500 m wide zone parallel to the fault trend lateral offset is difficult to show in the enriquillo valley area because of rapid recent sedimentation into the valley the pattern of inactive strike slip faults and fold belts of cenozoic age in cuba and the yucatan basin suggest that two elongate microplates were sheared off the proto caribbean plate and accreted to the north american plate by a similar process in paleocene and eocene times age of terminal deformation in western central and eastern cuba is consistent with southeastward younging and migration of arc collision the similarity of the size and sequence of events in cuba suggests that the process of oblique collision and sideways motion of the plate along a new strike slip fault towards a free face may be an important process of microplate formation and interplate transfer in other areas

interseismic plate coupling and strain partitioning in the northeastern caribbean summary the northeastern caribbean provides a natural laboratory to investigate strain partitioning its causes and its consequences on the stress regime and tectonic evolution of a subduction plate boundary here we use gps and earthquake slip vector data to produce a present day kinematic model that accounts for secular block rotation and elastic strain accumulation with variable interplate coupling on active faults we confirm that the oblique convergence between caribbean and north america in hispaniola is partitioned between plate boundary parallel motion on the septentrional and enriquillo faults in the overriding plate and plateboundary normal motion at the plate interface on the northern hispaniola fault to the east the caribbean north america plate motion is accommodated by oblique slip on the faults bounding the puerto rico block to the north puerto rico subduction and to the south muertos thrust with no evidence for partitioning the spatial correlation between interplate coupling strain partitioning and the subduction of buoyant oceanic asperities suggests that the latter enhance the transfer of interplate shear stresses to the overriding plate facilitating strike slip faulting in the overriding plate the model slip rate deficit together with the dates of large historical earthquakes indicates the potential for a large m w7 5 or greater earthquake on the septentrional fault in the dominican republic similarly the enriquillo fault in haiti is currently capable of a m w7 2 earthquake if the entire elastic strain accumulated since the last major earthquake was released in a single event today the model results show that the puerto rico lesser antilles subduction thrust is only partially coupled meaning that the plate interface is accumulating elastic strain at rates slower than the total plate motion this does not preclude the existence of isolated locked patches accumulating elastic strain to be released in future earthquakes but whose location and geometry are not resolvable with the present data distribution slip deficit on faults from this study are used in a companion paper to calculate interseismic stress loading and together with stress changes due to historical earthquakes derive the recent stress evolution in the ne caribbean

probabilistic seismic hazard assessment at the eastern caribbean islands a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis has been performed to compute probabilistic seismic hazard maps for the eastern caribbean region 10 n 19 n 59 w 64 w which includes in the north the leeward islands from anguilla to dominica and in the south the windward islands from martinique to grenada barbados trinidad and tobago the analysis has been conducted using a standard logic tree approach that allowed systematically taking into account the model based i e epistemic uncertainty and its influence on the computed ground motion param eters hazard computations have been performed using a grid of sites with a space resolution of 0 025 degrees covering the territory of the considered islands two different computation methodologies have been adopted the standard cornell mcguire approach cornell 1968 mcguire 1976 based on the definition of appropriate seismogenic zones sz and the zone free approach developed by woo 1996 which overcomes the ambiguities related with the definition of seis mic sources the interplay and complexities between shallow crustal intraplate and interface subduction seismicity of the caribbean region have been thoroughly investigated by merging all available databases a comprehensive and updated earthquake catalog for the region has been compiled also a thorough investigation has been undertaken to identify the most suitable ground motion prediction equa tions to be used in the analyses uniform hazard spectra have been calculated for the horizontal component of ground motion rock and level site conditions 4 return periods rp 95 475 975 and 2475 yr and 22 spectral accelerations sa with structural periods ranging from 0 to 3 s sas at 0 2 and 1 0 s for 2475 yr rp have been calculated to allow the definition of seismic hazard in the region of study according to the international building code ibc international code council icc 2009

rupture across arc segment and plate boundaries in the 1 april 2007 solomons earthquake the largest earthquakes are generated in subduction zones and the earthquake rupture typically extends for hundreds of kilometres along a single subducting plate these ruptures often begin or end at structural boundaries on the overriding plate that are associated with the subduction of prominent bathymetric features of the downgoing plate here we determine uplift and subsidence along shorelines for the 1 april 2007 moment magnitude m w 8 1 earthquake in the western solomon islands using coral microatolls which provide precise measurements of vertical motions in locations where instrumental data are unavailable we demonstrate that the 2007 earthquake ruptured across the subducting simbo ridge transform and thus broke through a triple junction where the australian and woodlark plates subduct beneath the overriding pacific plate previously no known major megathrust rupture has involved two subducting plates we conclude that this event illustrates the uncertainties of predicting the segmentation of subduction zone rupture on the basis of structural discontinuities

a great earthquake rupture across a rapidly evolving three plate boundary on 1 april 2007 a great tsunamigenic earthquake moment magnitude 8 1 ruptured the solomon islands subduction zone at the triple junction where the australia and solomon sea woodlark basin plates simultaneously underthrust the pacific plate with different slip directions the associated abrupt change in slip direction during the great earthquake drove convergent anelastic deformation of the upper pacific plate which generated localized uplift in the forearc above the subducting simbo fault potentially amplifying local tsunami amplitude elastic deformation during the seismic cycle appears to be primarily accommodated by the overriding pacific forearc this earthquake demonstrates the seismogenic potential of extremely young subducting oceanic lithosphere the ability of ruptures to traverse substantial geologic boundaries and the consequences of complex coseismic slip for uplift and tsunamigenesis

response of subglacial sediments to basal freeze on 1 theory and comparison to observations from beneath the west antarctic ice sheet 1 we have constructed a high resolution numerical model of heat water and solute flows in sub ice stream till subjected to basal freeze on the model builds on quantitative treatments of frost heave in permafrost soils the full version of the clapeyron equation is used hence ice water phase transition depends on water pressure osmotic pressure and surface tension the two latter effects can lead to supercooling of the ice base this supercooling in turn induces hydraulic gradients that drive upward flow of pore water which feeds the growth of segregation ice onto the freezing interface this interface may progress into the till and form ice lenses if supercooling is sufficiently strong hence the ice segregation process develops a stratified basal ice layer in our model a high basal temperature gradient 0 054 c m 1 triggers ice stream stoppage and the loss of basal shear heating leads to relatively high basal freeze on rates 3 5 mm a 1 in response the subglacial till experiences comparatively rapid consolidation till porosity can decrease from 40 to 120 kpa approximately within one century basal supercooling arising from redistribution of solutes and ice water interfacial effects amounts to ca 0 35 c below the pressure melting point fine grained till is in our model associated with widely spaced thick ice lenses coarse grained till yields thinner ice lenses that are more closely spaced our model results compare favorably although not in all details with available observational evidence from borehole studies of west antarctic ice streams

scaling relations of earthquake source parameter estimates with special focus on subduction environment abstract earthquake rupture length and width estimates are in demand in many seismological applications earthquake magnitude estimates are often available whereas the geometrical extensions of the rupture fault mostly are lacking therefore scaling relations are needed to derive length and width from magnitude most frequently used are the relationships of wells and coppersmith 1994 derived on the basis of a large dataset including all slip types with the exception of thrust faulting events in subduction environments however there are many applications dealing with earthquakes in subduction zones because of their high seismic and tsunamigenic potential there are no well established scaling relations for moment magnitude and length width for subduction events within this study we compiled a large database of source parameter estimates of 283 earthquakes all focal mechanisms are represented but special focus is set on large subduction zone events in particular scaling relations were fitted with linear least square as well as orthogonal regression and analyzed regarding the difference between continental and subduction zone oceanic relationships additionally the effect of technical progress in earthquake parameter estimation on scaling relations was tested as well as the influence of different fault mechanisms for a given moment magnitude we found shorter but wider rupture areas of thrust events compared to wells and coppersmith 1994 the thrust event relationships for pure continental and pure subduction zone rupture areas were found to be almost identical the scaling relations differ significantly for slip types the exclusion of events prior to 1964 when the worldwide standard seismic network was established resulted in a remarkable effect on strike slip scaling relations the data do not show any saturation of rupture width of strike slip earthquakes generally rupture area seems to scale with mean slip independent of magnitude the aspect ratio l w however depends on moment and differs for each slip type

seismic moment distribution revisited ii moment conservation principle summary we compare the tectonic rate with earthquake data using several theoretical distributions to approximate the seismic moment frequency relation we derive formulae to estimate parameters of the seismic moment distributions by comparing the earthquake occurrence rate with tectonic strain we analyse the tectonic moment rate and the earthquake moment distribution for several types of tectonic environments including subduction zones plate bounding transform faults and deforming continental regions in this analysis we use finer subdivisions of tectonic regions to infer whether earthquake size distribution properties established previously for large provinces flinn engdahl seismic regions could be applied to smaller zones extending over a few hundred kilometres although the shortness of the available earthquake catalogues makes our results less reliable several conclusions can be drawn from the analysis the universality of the parameter the slope of the moment frequency relation is reasonably well confirmed for all of these tectonic regions and their subdivisions in each region we estimate the strain rate or relative plate motion from a plate tectonic model active fault data or geodetic data according to the moment frequency relation the ratio of the tectonic moment rate to the earthquake rate depends on the value the corner magnitude mc and the effective seismogenic thickness we find that this ratio does not vary systematically with the relative plate velocity the ratio of parallel to perpendicular plate motion time since the last major earthquake and the length of fault zone segments established by previous earthquake history we obtain similar results for the western united states and southeast asia the corner magnitude is approximately equal to that for the circum pacific rim and there is no systematic dependence of the mc parameter on a geographic region or strain rate assuming the commonly accepted values for seismogenic thickness elastic modulus and 100 per cent seismic coupling the corner magnitude values for plate boundary zones and continental areas are 8 3 8 8 i e similar to those values obtained by statistical analysis

a fluid inclusion study of quartz cemented sandstones from offshore mid norway possible evidence for continued quartz cementation during oil emplacement abstract jurassic sandstones from the oil zone in a well from the haltenbanken area offshore mid norway contain both aqueous and hydrocarbon fluid inclusions within quartz overgrowths homogenization temperatures for the inclusions range from 92 c up to the present formation temperature of approximately 118 c since the inclusions mostly are located at the boundaries between quartz clasts and quartz overgrowths the homogenization temperatures indicate that quartz cementation started at temperatures slightly below 92 c poikilotopic ferroan calcite cement usually predates formation of quartz overgrowths and most calcite cement must be precipitated at temperatures below 90 c although in one calcite cemented zone ferroan calcite encloses quartz overgrowths with inclusions trapped at temperatures of up to 105 c none of the examined hydrocarbon inclusions homogenized below 102 c and this suggests that oil started entering the reservoir at temperatures of around 100 c the burial history of the examined sandstones indicates that temperatures of 100 c were not reached before the late pliocene and that filling of the reservoir has taken place during the last few million years homogenization temperatures approximately equal to present formation temperature suggest that quartz cementation may still be in progress and that emplacement of oil did not necessarily stop precipitation of quartz cement possible continued quartz cementation after oil filled the reservoir could be explained by dissolution of quartz at stylolites and grain contacts as transport of dissolved quartz from these sources might possibly take place by diffusion through irreducible water

slip rate and earthquake recurrence along the central septentrional fault north american caribbean plate boundary dominican republic 1 the septentrional fault zone sfz is the major north american caribbean strike slip plate boundary fault at the longitude of eastern hispaniola the sfz traverses the densely populated cibao valley of the dominican republic forming a prominent scarp in alluvium our studies at four sites along the central sfz are aimed at quantifying the late quaternary behavior of this structure to better understand the seismic hazard it represents for the northeastern caribbean our investigations of excavations at sites near rio cenovi show that the most recent ground rupturing earthquake along this fault in the north central dominican republic occurred between a d 1040 and a d 1230 and involved a minimum of 4 m of left lateral slip and 2 3 m of normal dip slip at that site our studies of offset stream terraces at two locations rio juan lopez and rio licey provide late holocene slip rate estimates of 6 9 mm yr and a maximum of 11 12 mm yr respectively across the septentrional fault combining these results gives a best estimate of 6 12 mm yr for the slip rate across the sfz three excavations two near tenares and one at the rio licey site yielded evidence for the occurrence of earlier prehistoric earthquakes dates of strata associated with the penultimate event suggest that it occurred post a d 30 giving a recurrence interval of 800 1200 years these studies indicate that the sfz has likely accumulated elastic strain sufficient to generate a major earthquake during the more than 800 years since it last slipped and should be considered likely to produce a destructive future earthquake

assessment of source probabilities for potential tsunamis affecting the u s atlantic coast abstract estimating the likelihood of tsunamis occurring along the u s atlantic coast critically depends on knowledge of tsunami source probability we review available information on both earthquake and landslide probabilities from potential sources that could generate local and transoceanic tsunamis estimating source probability includes defining both size and recurrence distributions for earthquakes and landslides for the former distribution source sizes are often distributed according to a truncated or tapered power law relationship for the latter distribution sources are often assumed to occur in time according to a poisson process simplifying the way tsunami probabilities from individual sources can be aggregated for the u s atlantic coast earthquake tsunami sources primarily occur at transoceanic distances along plate boundary faults probabilities for these sources are constrained from previous statistical studies of global seismicity for similar plate boundary types in contrast there is presently little information constraining landslide probabilities that may generate local tsunamis though there is significant uncertainty in tsunami source probabilities for the atlantic results from this study yield a comparative analysis of tsunami source recurrence rates that can form the basis for future probabilistic analyses

numerical simulations of the 1991 limon tsunami costa rica caribbean coast the second largest recorded tsunami along the caribbean margin of central america occurred 25 years ago on april 22nd 1991 an earthquake with magnitude mw 7 6 ruptured along the thrust faults that form the north panama deformed belt npdb the earthquake triggered a tsunami that affected the caribbean coast of costa rica and panama within few minutes generating two casualties these are the only deaths caused by a tsunami in costa rica coseismic uplift up to 1 6 m and runup values larger than 2 m were measured along some coastal sites here we consider three solutions for the seismic source as initial conditions to model the tsunami each considering a single rupture plane we performed numerical modeling of the tsunami propagation and runup using neowave numerical model yamazaki et al in int j numer methods fluids 67 2081 2107 2010 doi 10 1002 fld 2485 on a system of nested grids from the entire caribbean sea to limon city the modeled surface deformation and tsunami runup agreed with the measured data along most of the coastal sites with one preferred model that fits the field data the model results are useful to determine how the 1991 tsunami could have affected regions where tsunami records were not preserved and to simulate the effects of the coastal surface deformations as buffer to tsunami we also performed tsunami modeling to simulate the consequences if a similar event with larger magnitude mw 7 9 occurs offshore the southern costa rican caribbean coast such event would generate maximum wave heights of more than 5 m showing that limon and northwestern panama coastal areas are exposed to moderate to large tsunamis these simulations considering historical events and maximum credible scenarios can be useful for hazard assessment and also as part of studies leading to tsunami evacuation maps and mitigation plans even when that is not the scope of this paper

subduction seismicity and tectonics in the lesser antilles arc we have studied the mechanisms of 17 earthquakes along the lesser antilles subduction zone to examine a site where very old lithosphere subducts at a slow convergence rate no large thrust earthquakes occurred during the 1950 1978 study period the three large magnitude seven events are all normal faults one is a normal faulting event seaward of the trench its aftershock sequence includes strike slip events on differently oriented faults probably due to lateral block motion in response to the main shock a second indicates extension within the slab at depth these observations suggest that subduction in this region is primarily decoupled and aseismic unless the time interval studied is unrepresentative the third normal fault earthquake occurred within the upper plate with fault planes perpendicular to the arc and trench this unusual geometry may represent a flexural response to the subduction of the barracuda ridge a major bathymetric high with uncompensated excess mass at depth which seems analogous to flanking ridges found along some mid atlantic ridge fracture zones thus the barracuda ridge is not buoyant and does not affect benioff zone dip strike slip faulting occurs at depth in the subduction zone along a concentration normal to the arc and maymore indicate a fossil fracture zone there is no direct evidence in the shallow seismicity for the hypothetical north america south america caribbean triple junction through some of the oceanic intraplate seismicity is consistent with such a boundary less

tsunami probability in the caribbean region we calculated tsunami runup probability in excess of 0 5 m at coastal sites throughout the caribbean region we applied a poissonian probability model because of the variety of uncorrelated tsunami sources in the region coastlines were discretized into 20 km by 20 km cells and the mean tsunami runup rate was determined for each cell the remarkable 500 year empirical record compiled by o loughlin and lander 2003 was used to calculate an empirical tsunami probability map the first of three constructed for this study however it is unclear whether the 500 year record is complete so we conducted a seismic moment balance exercise using a finite element model of the caribbean north american plate boundaries and the earthquake catalog and found that moment could be balanced if the seismic coupling coefficient is c 0 32 modeled moment release was therefore used to generate synthetic earthquake sequences to calculate 50 tsunami runup scenarios for 500 year periods we made a second probability map from numerically calculated runup rates in each cell differences between the first two probability maps based on empirical and numerical modeled rates suggest that each captured different aspects of tsunami generation the empirical model may be deficient in primary plate boundary events whereas numerical model rates lack backarc fault and landslide sources we thus prepared a third probability map using bayesian likelihood functions derived from the empirical and numerical rate models and their attendant uncertainty to weight a range of rates at each 20 km by 20 km coastal cell our best estimate map gives a range of 30 year runup probability from 0 30 regionally

are rupture zone limits of great subduction earthquakes controlled by upper plate structures evidence from multichannel seismic reflection data acquired across the northern ecuador southwest colombia margin 1 subduction of the nazca plate beneath the ecuador colombia margin has produced four megathrust earthquakes during the last century the 500 km long rupture zone of the 1906 mw 8 8 event was partially reactivated by three thrust events in 1942 mw 7 8 1958 mw 7 7 and 1979 mw 8 2 whose rupture zones abut one another multichannel seismic reflection and bathymetric data acquired during the sisteur cruise show evidence that the margin wedge is segmented by transverse crustal faults that potentially correlate with the limits of the earthquake coseismic slip zones the paleogene neogene jama quininde and esmeraldas crustal faults define a 200 km long margin crustal block that coincides with the 1942 earthquake rupture zone subduction of the buoyant carnegie ridge is inferred to partially lock the plate interface along central ecuador however coseismic slip during the 1942 and 1906 earthquakes may have terminated against the subducted northern flank of the ridge we report on a newly identified manglares crustal fault that cuts transversally through the margin wedge and correlates with the limit between the 1958 and 1979 rupture zones during the earthquake cycle the fault is associated with high stress concentration on the plate interface an outer basement high which bounds the margin seaward of the 1958 rupture zone may act as a deformable buttress to seaward propagation of coseismic slip along a megathrust splay fault coseismic uplift of the basement high is interpreted as the cause for the 1958 tsunami we propose a model of weak transverse faults which reduce coupling between adjacent margin segments together with a splay fault and an asperity along the plate interface as controlling the seismogenic rupture of the 1958 earthquake

oblique collision in the northeastern caribbean from gps measurements and geological observations 1 previous caribbean gps studies have shown that the rigid interior of the caribbean plate is moving east northeastward 070 at a rate of 18 20 3 mm yr relative to north america this direction implies maximum oblique convergence between the island of hispaniola on the caribbean plate and the 22 27 km thick crust of the bahama carbonate platform on the adjacent north america plate we present a tectonic interpretation of a 15 site gps network which spans the hispaniola bahama oblique collision zone and includes stable plate interior sites on both the north america and caribbean plates measurements span the time period of 1994 1999 in a north america reference frame gps velocities in puerto rico st croix and the lesser antilles indicate that these areas move as a single block in an east northeast direction 070 at a rate of 19 20 mm yr consistent with the movement of the rigid interior of the caribbean plate gps velocities at six sites in central and eastern hispaniola dominican republic show drastically different behavior with more eastwardly strikes 080 and much slower rates 4 17 mm yr than areas of the stable caribbean plate the boundary between the relatively slower moving hispaniola collisional zone and the relatively faster moving uncollided puerto rico virgin islands area is the mona passage where late neogene rifting occurs in a broad zone elastic modeling favors strain partitioning with oblique slip on the outer low angle submarine thrust faults north hispaniola muertos and strike slip on the inner subvertical subaerial strike slip faults septentrional enriquillo

bivergent thrust wedges surrounding oceanic island arcs insight from observations and sandbox models of the northeastern caribbean plate at several localities around the world thrust belts have developed on both sides of oceanic island arcs e g java timor panama vanuatu and the northeastern caribbean in these localities the overall vergence of the backarc thrust belt is opposite to that of the forearc thrust belt for example in the northeastern caribbean a north verging accretionary prism lies to the north of the eastern greater antilles arc hispaniola and puerto rico whereas a south verging thrust belt called the muertos thrust belt lies to the south researchers have attributed such bivergent geometry to several processes including reversal of subduction polarity subduction driven mantle fl ow stress transmission across the arc gravitational spreading of the arc and magmatic infl ation within the arc new observations of deformational features in the muertos thrust belt and of fault geometries produced in sandbox kinematic models along with examination of published studies of island arcs lead to the conclusion that the bivergence of thrusting in island arcs can develop without reversal of subduction polarity without subarc mantle fl ow and without magmatic infl ation we suggest that the eastern greater antilles arc and comparable arcs are simply crustalscale bivergent or doubly vergent thrust wedges formed during unidirectional subduction sandbox kinematic modeling suggests in addition that a broad retrowedge containing an imbricate fan of thrusts develops only where the arc behaves relatively rigidly in such cases the arc acts as a backstop that transmits compressive stress into the backarc region further modeling shows that when arcs behave as rigid blocks the strike slip component of oblique convergence is accommodated entirely within the prowedge and the arc the retrowedge hosts only dip slip faulting frontal thrusting the existence of large retrowedges and the distribution of faulting in an island arc may therefore be evidence that the arc is relatively rigid the rigidity of an island arc may arise from its mafi c composition and has implications for seismic hazard analysis

glaciohydraulic supercooling a freeze on mechanism to create stratified debris rich basal ice i field evidence debris laden ice accretes to the base of matanuska glacier alaska u s a from water that supercools while flowing in a distributed drainage system up the adverse slope of an overdeepening frazil ice grows in the water column and forms aggregates while other ice grows on the glacier sole or on substrate materials sediment is trapped by this growing ice forming stratified debris laden basal ice growth rates of 0 1 m a 1 of debris rich basal ice are possible the large sediment fluxes that this mechanism allows may have implications for interpretation of the widespread deposits from ice that flowed through other overdeepenings including heinrich events and the till sheets south of the laurentian great lakes

subduction of aseismic ridges beneath the caribbean plate implications for the tectonics and seismic potential of the northeastern caribbean normal seafloor entering the puerto rico and northern lesser antillean trenches in the northeastern caribbean is interrupted by a series of aseismic ridges on the north and south american plates these topographic features lie close to the expected trend of fracture zones created about 80 110 m y ago when this seafloor was formed at the mid atlantic ridge the northernmost of the ridges that interact with the lesser antillean subduction zone the barracuda ridge intersects the arc in a region of high seismic activity some of this seismicity including a large shock in 1974 occurs within the overthrust plate and may be related to the deformation of the caribbean plate as it overrides the ridge a large bathymetric high the main ridge is oriented obliquely to the puerto rico trench and intersects the subduction zone north of the virgin islands in another cluster of seismic activity along the inner wall of the trench data from a seismic network in the northeastern caribbean indicate that this intersection is also characterized by both interpolate and intraplate seismic activity magnetic anomalies bathymetric trends and the pattern of deformed sediments on the inner wall of the trench strongly suggest that the main and barracuda ridges are parts of a formerly continuous aseismic ridge a segment of which has recently been overridden by the caribbean plate reconstruction of mid miocene to recent plate motions also suggest that at least two aseismic ridges and possibly fragments of the bahama platform have interacted with the subduction zone in the northeastern caribbean the introduction of these narrow segments of anomalous seafloor into the subduction zone has segmented the arc into elements about 200 km long these ridges may act as tectonic barriers or asperities during the rupture processes involved in large earthquakes they also leave a geologic imprint on segments of the arc with which they have interacted a 50 km landward jump of the locus of island arc volcanism occurred in late miocene time along the northern half of the lesser antilles we postulate that the subduction of a segment of seafloor of anomolously thick crust being more buoyant than adjacent seafloor resulted in a marked shoaling in the dip of the descending slab and therefore a shift of the locus of volcanism in the region near western puerto rico and eastern hispanolia plio pleistocene interaction with a similar feature in this case a part of the bahama platform about 3 4 m y ago led to a jump in the locus of subduction as evidenced by a gap in the downgoing seismic zone that segment of the bahama platform interferred with the subduction process and was subsequently sutured onto the caribbean plate when the boundary jumped about 60 km to the northeast the maximum size of historic shallow earthquakes along the lesser antillean arc varies from about 7 0 7 5 in the center of the arc where the dip of the shallow part of the plate boundary is steep to 8 0 8 5 along the northern part of the arc where the dip is shallow the interaction of anomalous seafloor as along the northern lesser antilles can lead to the development of a wider than normal zone of interplate contact and hence to earthquakes that are larger than those associated with more typical seafloor entering subduction zones major seismic gaps and regions of high seismic potential currently exist along the northern lesser antilles and to the north of puerto rico both gaps are bounded by anomalous features on the downgoing plate the intersection of these features with the plate boundary created large asperities that may be good places to search for precursors to future large earthquakes a great shock in 1787 may have ruptured an existing seismic gap north of puerto rico between 65 and 67 w thus that gap can be expected to eventually rupture again in a great shock and not to accommodate plate motion by totally aseismic processes

slab1 0 a three dimensional model of global subduction zone geometries 1 we describe and present a new model of global subduction zone geometries called slab1 0 an extension of previous efforts to constrain the two dimensional non planar geometry of subduction zones around the focus of large earthquakes slab1 0 describes the detailed non planar three dimensional geometry of approximately 85 of subduction zones worldwide while the model focuses on the detailed form of each slab from their trenches through the seismogenic zone where it combines data sets from active source and passive seismology it also continues to the limits of their seismic extent in the upper mid mantle providing a uniform approach to the definition of the entire seismically active slab geometry examples are shown for two well constrained global locations models for many other regions are available and can be freely downloaded in several formats from our new slab1 0 website http on doi gov d9arbs we describe improvements in our two dimensional geometry constraint inversion including the use of average active source seismic data profiles in the shallow trench regions where data are otherwise lacking derived from the interpolation between other active source seismic data along strike in the same subduction zone we include several analyses of the uncertainty and robustness of our three dimensional interpolation methods in addition we use the filtered subduction related earthquake data sets compiled to build slab1 0 in a reassessment of previous analyses of the deep limit of the thrust interface seismogenic zone for all subduction zones included in our global model thus far concluding that the width of these seismogenic zones is on average 30 larger than previous studies have suggested

attenuation relations of strong ground motion in japan using site classification based on predominant period a spectral acceleration attenuation model for japan is presented in the present study the data set includes a very large number of strong ground motion records up to the 2003 off tokach main and aftershocks site class terms instead of individual site correction terms are used the site classes of recording stations are from a recent study on site classification for strong motion recording stations in japan according to a classification scheme that has been used in japanese engineering design the use of site class terms enables tectonic source type effects to be identified and accounted for in the present model the effects of a faulting mechanism for crustal earthquakes also are accounted for for crustal and interface earthquakes a simple form of an attenuation model with respect to distance is able to capture the main strong motion characteristics and achieves unbiased estimates for subduction slab events a simple distance modification factor is employed to achieve plausible and unbiased predictions the effects of source depth tectonic source type and faulting mechanism of crustal earthquakes are significant the need for magnitude squared terms is evaluated and the use of magnitude squared terms reduces the interevent error further

historical perspective on seismic hazard to hispaniola and the northeast caribbean region 1 we evaluate the long term seismic activity of the north american caribbean plate boundary from 500 years of historical earthquake damage reports the 2010 haiti earthquakes and other earthquakes were used to derive regional attenuation relationships between earthquake intensity magnitude and distance from the reported damage to the epicenter for hispaniola and for puerto rico and the virgin islands the attenuation relationship for hispaniola earthquakes and northern lesser antilles earthquakes is similar to that for california earthquakes indicating a relatively rapid attenuation of damage intensity with distance intensities in puerto rico and the virgin islands decrease less rapidly with distance we use the intensity magnitude relationships to systematically search for the location and intensity magnitude mi which best fit all the reported damage for historical earthquakes many events occurred in the 20th century along the plate boundary segment from central hispaniola to the nw tip of puerto rico but earlier events from this segment were not identified the remaining plate boundary to the east to guadeloupe is probably not associated with m 8 historical subduction zone earthquakes the may 2 1787 earthquake previously assigned an m 8 8 25 is probably only mi 6 9 and could be located north west or sw of puerto rico an mi 6 9 earthquake on july 11 1785 was probably located north or east of the virgin islands we located mi 8 historical earthquakes on april 5 1690 february 8 1843 and october 8 1974 in the northern lesser antilles within the arc we speculate that the december 2 1562 mi 7 7 and may 7 1842 mi 7 6 earthquakes ruptured the septentrional fault in northern hispaniola if so the recurrence interval on the central septentrional fault is 300 years and only 170 years has elapsed since the last event the recurrence interval of large earthquakes along the hispaniola subduction segment is likely longer than the historical record intra arc m 7 0 earthquakes may occur every 75 100 years in the 410 km long segment between the virgin islands and guadeloupe

advancing techniques to constrain the geometry of the seismic rupture plane on subduction interfaces a priori higher order functional fits 1 ongoing developments in earthquake source inversions incorporate nonplanar fault geometries as inputs to the inversion process improving previous approaches that relied solely on planar fault surfaces this evolution motivates advancing the existing framework for constraining fault geometry particularly in subduction zones where plate boundary surfaces that host highly hazardous earthquakes are clearly nonplanar here we improve upon the existing framework for the constraint of the seismic rupture plane of subduction interfaces by incorporating active seismic and seafloor sediment thickness data with existing independent data sets and inverting for the most probable nonplanar subduction geometry constraining the rupture interface a priori with independent geological and seismological information reduces the uncertainty in the derived earthquake source inversion parameters over models that rely on simpler assumptions such as the moment tensor inferred fault plane examples are shown for a number of wellconstrained global locations we expand the coverage of previous analyses to a more uniform global data set and show that even in areas of sparse data this approach is able to accurately constrain the approximate subduction geometry particularly when aided with the addition of data from local active seismic surveys in addition we show an example of the integration of many two dimensional profiles into a threedimensional surface for the sunda subduction zone and introduce the development of a new global threedimensional subduction interface model slab1 0 components 8122 words 8 figures 1 table

freezing rate effects on the physical characteristics of basal ice formed by net adfreezing a number of theoretical and empirical studies have indicated that many individual characteristics of ice formed by processes of net basal adfreezing may be sensitive to the rate of propagation of the freezing front through the reservoir concerned the effects of freezing rate on the the stable isotope chemistry and crystallography of ice in addition to the disposition and character of included debris and gas are reported unidirectional freezing through a cylindrical reservoir containing various water sediment mixtures has been conducted in the laboratory and the resulting cores analysed for debris and gas disposition and ice crystal size and fabric the data lend support to inferences drawn from studies concerned with specific ice properties and an idealized suite of characteristics is developed which may be diagnostic of basal ice formed by net adfreezing

radar reflections reveal a wet bed beneath stagnant ice stream c and a frozen bed beneath ridge bc west antarctica digital airborne radar data were collected during the 1987 88 antarctic field season in nine gridded blocks covering the downstream portions of ice stream b 6 km spacing and ice stream c 11 km spacing together with a portion of ridge bc between them an automated processing procedure was used for picking onset times of the reflected radar pulses converting travel times to distances interpolating missing data converting pressure transducer readings correcting navigational drift performing crossover analysis and zeroing remanent crossover errors interpolation between flight lines was carried out using the minimum curvature method maps of ice thickness estimated accuracy 20 m and basal reflection strength estimated accuracy 1 db were produced the ice thickness map confirms the characteristics of previous reconnaissance maps and reveals no new features the reflection strength map shows pronounced contrasts between the ice streams and ridge bc and between the two ice streams themselves we interpret the reflection strengths to mean that the bed of ice stream c as well as that of ice stream b is unfrozen that the bed of ridge bc is frozen and that the boundary between the frozen bed of ridge bc and the unfrozen bed of ice stream c lies precisely below the former shear margin of the ice stream

quantifying potential tsunami hazard in the puysegur subduction zone south of new zealand summary studies of subduction zone seismogenesis and tsunami potential particularly of large subduction zones have recently seen a resurgence after the great 2004 earthquake and tsunami offshore of sumatra yet these global studies have generally neglected the tsunami potential of small subduction zones such as the puysegur subduction zone south of new zealand here we study one such relatively small subduction zone by analysing the historical seismicity over the entire plate boundary region south of new zealand using these data to determine the seismic moment deficit of the subduction zone over the past 100 yr our calculations indicate unreleased moment equivalent to a magnitude mw 8 3 earthquake suggesting this subduction zone has the potential to host a great tsunamigenic event we model this tsunami hazard and find that a tsunami caused by a great earthquake on the puysegur subduction zone would pose threats to the coasts of southern and western south island new zealand tasmania and southeastern australia nearly 2000 km distant

could a 1755 like tsunami reach the french atlantic coastline constraints from twentieth century observations and numerical modeling the tsunami generated by the 1 november 1755 earthquake off the coast of portugal affected mainly the coastlines of the iberian peninsula and northwest morocco but was also observed in some places along the north atlantic coasts to determine whether the event could have effected the french coastline we conducted a study to search for signs of the tsunami in historical records from all tide gauge stations off the french atlantic coast during the twentieth century specifically for the 28 february 1969 and the 26 may 1975 tsunamis that were recorded by the portuguese tide gauge network because many recordings are available in la rochelle located on the southwest coast of france we focused our study on this harbor the analysis of the tide gauge data shows no evidence for tsunamis in la rochelle neither in 1969 nor in 1975 to confirm this lack of tsunami signals we used nonlinear shallow water equations to compute the tsunami propagation to the french atlantic coastline for both 1969 and 1975 events results obtained from these simulations confirm otherwise unnoticeable wave amplitudes at la rochelle harbor in a second step tsunamis from three different scenarios for the 1755 earthquake were modeled to estimate the impact of such a tsunami on the french atlantic coast with a focus on la rochelle harbor a comparison of the functions of tide configuration was made in order to analyse the difference in impact the results show that while the harbor is poorly impacted several areas western part of the island of re and northern coast of the island of oleron may have experienced a moderate impact from 0 5 to 1 m especially since the tide was high at the time of arrival possibly causing local inundations in lowland areas

subduction and seismic hazard in the northern lesser antilles revision of the historical seismicity an important set of french and british archives on the historical seismicity of the northern lesser antilles is analyzed we present the most significant data which help to constrain the 8 february 1843 the 16 may 1851 and the 29 april 1897 earthquakes the 1843 event is the largest reported historical earthquake of the lesser antilles subduction arc and produced intensity ix on a segment about 100 km long between antigua and grande terre guadeloupe which contradicts the 300 km long proposed by other authors who mainly rely on robson s catalog 1964 this suggests a magnitude 7 5 to 8 0 the absence of tsunami and noticeable vertical deformation of the coasts in the source area makes very unlikely a normal fault mechanism but does not rule out the possibility of a subduction event because of the low dip angle of the interplate plane the dominance of moderate instrumental thrust earthquakes in the source area suggests a subduction mechanism for the 1843 event the northern and southern limits of the 1843 source area roughly coincide with the barracuda ridge and the tiburon ridge respectively which may have acted as barriers during the rupture process the northwestern portion of the tiburon ridge is associated with a lack of instrumental seismicity near grande terre which could indicate a possible magnitude 7 5 to 8 0 event in the next future moreover its mechanism could be normal which would provide the additional risk of a damaging tsunami the evaluation of seismic hazard must also take into account possible shallow moderate earthquakes as the 1851 and the 1897 events which produced intensities vii to viii in guadeloupe and may be related to observed major plioquaternary faults in this island

stress interaction between subduction earthquakes and forearc strike slip faults modeling and application to the northern caribbean plate boundary 1 strike slip faults in the forearc region of a subduction zone often present significant seismic hazard because of their proximity to population centers we explore the interaction between thrust events on the subduction interface and strike slip faults within the forearc region using three dimensional models of static coulomb stress change model results reveal that subduction earthquakes with slip vectors subparallel to the trench axis enhance the coulomb stress on strike slip faults adjacent to the trench but reduce the stress on faults farther back in the forearc region in contrast subduction events with slip vectors perpendicular to the trench axis enhance the coulomb stress on strike slip faults farther back in the forearc while reducing the stress adjacent to the trench a significant contribution to coulomb stress increase on strike slip faults in the back region of the forearc comes from unclamping of the fault i e reduction in normal stress due to thrust motion on the subduction interface we argue that although coulomb stress changes from individual subduction earthquakes are ephemeral their cumulative effects on the pattern of lithosphere deformation in the forearc region are significant we use the coulomb stress models to explain the contrasting deformation pattern between two adjacent segments of the caribbean subduction zone subduction earthquakes with slip vectors nearly perpendicular to the caribbean trench axis is dominant in the hispaniola segment where the strike slip faults are more than 60 km inland from the trench in contrast subduction slip motion is nearly parallel to the caribbean trench axis along the puerto rico segment where the strike slip fault is less than 15 km from the trench this observed jump from a strike slip fault close to the trench axis in the puerto rico segment to the inland faults in hispaniola is explained by different distributions of coulomb stress in the forearc region of the two segments as a result of the change from the nearly trench parallel slip on the puerto rico subduction interface to the more perpendicular subduction slip beneath hispaniola the observations and modeling suggest that subduction induced strike slip seismic hazard to puerto rico may be smaller than previously assumed but the hazard to hispaniola remains high

earthquake supercycle in subduction zones controlled by the width of the seismogenic zone some subduction zones experience earthquake supercycles numerical simulations show that successive megathrust earthquakes may load neighbouring parts of the fault causing it to eventually fail in a giant earthquake that completes a supercycle

arc parallel extension and localization of volcanic complexes in guadeloupe lesser antilles 1 subduction of atlantic seafloor under the caribbean plate causes shallow earthquakes within the lesser antilles volcanic arc such earthquakes above the subduction interface show strike slip or normal fault plane solutions the latter with e w striking nodal planes to better assess seismic hazard and the coupling between volcanism and tectonics we investigated faulting related to overriding plate deformation in the guadeloupe archipelago using aerial photographs satellite spot images and topographic maps 1 25000 scale we mapped active and middle to late pleistocene fissures and normal fault systems that cut the uplifted coral platforms grande terre and marie galante and the volcanic rocks of basse terre the available marine geophysical data show that the faults extend offshore to bound submarine rifts the e w striking 1500 m deep v shaped marie galante rift separates the two islands of marie galante and grande terre normal faults in the north of grande terre appear to mark the similarly v shaped western termination of the 5000 m deep n 50e to n130 e striking desirade graben three shallow m 5 5 earthquakes 6 may 1851 29 april 1897 3 august 1992 appear to have ruptured segments of the marie galante rift boundary faults the young la grande decouverte volcanic complex of basse terre including the 1440 a d soufriere dome lies within the western termination of the marie galante rift the ancient volcanic shoulders of the rift buttress the active dome to the north and south which may explain why major prehistoric sector collapses and pyroclastic avalanches have been directed southwestward into the caribbean sea or southeastward into the atlantic ocean the marie galante rift is typical of other troughs transverse to the northeastern edge of the caribbean plate we interpret such troughs which are roughly orthogonal to the arc to result from slip partitioning and extension perpendicular to plate convergence that they disappear southward implies that they result from interaction between the caribbean and north american plates