coseismic and postseismic slip from the 2003 san simeon earthquake and their effects on backthrust slip and the 2004 parkfield earthquake 1 the 2003 m6 5 san simeon earthquake occurred less than a year before and 50 km west of the long awaited parkfield earthquake of 2004 aftershocks of the san simeon event occurred not only on the presumptive rupture plane but also delineated subconjugate structures to the east backthrusts insar data show a complex pattern of deformation during the postseismic time interval and suggest that shallow postseismic slip may have occurred on the backthrust structures in this paper we present a model inversion for slip during and after the earthquake from four interferograms and gps data we find that the data are well fit when coseismic slip is allowed on two planes the main rupture plane and a backthrust structure to the south the backthrust structure accommodates slip amounting to about one third of the coseismic moment release shallow postseismic slip also occurred on the main rupture plane updip from the coseismic slip and on the southern backthrust postseismic slip on the more northern backthrust structure is not well constrained and the data is fit nearly as well without including it the areas of postseismic slip on the backthrusts correspond well with areas that experienced unclamping and little slip is found in regions of clamping no value for the coefficient of friction below 1 0 results in a coulomb failure stress field that matches the aseismic slip distributions better than the normal stress alone we also investigate whether static stress changes from the san simeon earthquake acted to encourage right lateral strike slip on the parkfield segment of the san andreas fault we find that the san simeon earthquake s rupture planes were oriented in such a way that the maximum increase in coulomb failure stress on the san andreas fault occurred on the parkfield segment the 2004 parkfield earthquake differed from its expected behavior by nucleating in the southern portion of the parkfield segment an area that experienced increased shear stress of 0 1 0 14 bars from coseismic slip in the san simeon earthquake postseismic slip from san simeon further loaded the southern portion of the parkfield segment preferentially over the northern portion though the size of the stress changes was small 0 03 0 04 bars

the location and source parameters of the lompoc california earthquake of 4 november 1927 in this paper we address the relocation magnitudes and the style of faulting of the lompoc earthquake from a sparse assortment of teleseismic and regional seismograms the highest quality teleseismic waveform data come from a station at de bilt netherlands that remains in operation thus recordings of numerous modern events in central coastal california i e the 1969 santa lucia banks 1983 coalinga 1978 santa barbara and 1989 loma prieta earthquakes have been used for comparison with the 1927 records location constraints for the lompoc event were established from the de bilt recording by comparing s p and sss s waveform matches against the above master events to avoid the effect of unknown clock errors on locations that use absolute times these same seismograms were modeled to estimate the depth faulting parameters and source strength a similar approach using observational comparisons and numerical modeling was applied to the regional waveform data obtained from the stations at berkeley tucson and pasadena our results indicate a north northwesterly striking reverse event located about 40 km west of point conception which is in excellent agreement with the recent tsunami modeling results by satake and somerville 1992 this location is 25 km south of that proposed by hanks 1979 and well within his error bars we obtain a body wave moment of 1 10 26 dyne cm a trapezoidal time history of 2 2 2 sec and a source depth of 10 km the weak beginning of the pnl wavetrain at berkeley indicates some source complexity which is characteristic of many large events the fault parameters are strike n20 w dip 66 ne and rake 95 most seismicity catalogs report a m s 7 3 for this event after gutenberg and richter 1956 but this was a long period body wave magnitude and not a surface wave result their original worksheets indicate a smaller ms 7 0 the body waves of the loma prieta event m s 7 1 appear distinctly larger than those of the lompoc event at de bilt in agreement with our lower estimate of source strength

stress sensitivity of fault seismicity a comparison between limited offset oblique and major strike slip faults we present a new three dimensional inventory of the southern san francisco bay area faults and use it to calculate stress applied principally by the 1989 m 7 1 loma prieta earthquake and to compare fault seismicity rates before and after 1989 the major high angle right lateral faults exhibit a different response to the stress change than do minor oblique right lateral thrust faults seismicity on oblique slip faults in the southern santa clara valley thrust belt increased where the faults were unclamped the strong dependence of seismicity change on normal stress change implies a high coefficient of static friction in contrast we observe that faults with significant offset 50 100 km behave differently microseismicity on the hayward fault diminished where right lateral shear stress was reduced and where it was unclamped by the loma prieta earthquake we observe a similar response on the san andreas fault zone in southern california after the landers earthquake sequence additionally the offshore san gregorio fault shows a seismicity rate increase where right lateral oblique shear stress was increased by the loma prieta earthquake despite also being clamped by it these responses are consistent with either a low coefficient of static friction or high pore fluid pressures within the fault zones we can explain the different behavior of the two styles of faults if those with large cumulative offset become impermeable through gouge buildup coseismically pressurized pore fluids could be trapped and negate imposed normal stress changes whereas in more limited offset faults fluids could rapidly escape the difference in behavior between minor and major faults may explain why frictional failure criteria that apply intermediate coefficients of static friction can be effective in describing the broad distributions of aftershocks that follow large earthquakes since many of these events occur both inside and outside major fault zones

dynamics of izmit earthquake postseismic deformation and loading of the duzce earthquake hypocenter we have developed dynamic finite element models of izmit earthquake postseismic deformation to evaluate whether this deformation is better explained by afterslip via either velocity strengthening frictional slip or linear viscous creep or by distributed linear viscoelastic relaxation of the lower crust we find that velocity strengthening frictional afterslip driven by coseismic shear stress loading can reproduce time dependent global positioning system data better than either linear viscous creep on a vertical shear zone below the rupture or lower crustal viscoelastic relaxation our best frictional afterslip model fits the main features of postseismic slip inversions in particular high slip patches at and below the hypocenter and on the western karadere segment and limited afterslip west of the hersek delta burgmann et al 2002 the model requires a weakly velocity strengthening fault that is either low effective normal stress in the slipping regions or a smaller value for the parameter describing rate dependence of friction a b than is indicated by laboratory experiments our best afterslip model suggests that the coulomb stress at the duzce hypocenter increased by 0 14 mpa 1 4 bars during the izmit earthquake assuming right lateral slip on a surface dipping 50 to the north and by another 0 1 mpa during the 87 days between the izmit and duzce earthquakes in the marmara sea region within about 160 km of the izmit earthquake rupture this model indicates that the coulomb stresses increased by 15 25 of the coseismic amount during the first 300 days after the earthquake three hundred days after the earthquake postseismic contributions to coulomb stressing rate on the maramara region faults had fallen to values equal to or less than the inferred secular stress accumulation rate our estimates of postseismic coulomb stress are highly model dependent in the marmara region the linear viscous shear zone and viscoelastic lower crust models predict greater postseismic coulomb stresses than the frictional afterslip model near field stress and fault zone rheology estimates are sensitive to the earth9s elastic structure when a layered elastic structure is incorporated in our model it yields a coulomb stress of 0 24 mpa at the duzce hypocenter significantly more than the 0 14 mpa estimated from the uniform elastic model because of the higher near field coseismic stresses the layered elastic model requires a higher value of velocity strengthening parameter a b a b times effective normal stress r to produce comparable postseismic slip a b is estimated at 0 4 and 0 2 mpa respectively for the layered and uniform elastic models these results highlight the importance of understanding the earth9s elastic structure and the mechanism for postseismic deformation if we wish to accurately model coseismic and postseismic crustal stresses

new slip rate estimates for the creeping segment of the san andreas fault california new continuous and differential global positioning system gps measurements of recent slip rates and 30 yr alignment array offsets from the central creeping segment of the san andreas fault yield a maximum right lateral slip rate of 25 1 mm yr this slip rate is 20 slower than the 30 mm yr slip rate accepted for this segment of the fault and 35 slower than the 39 mm yr slip rate predicted between the sierra nevada great valley block and the pacific plate new continuous gps measurements between pairs of sites that flank the creeping segment at intersite distances of 1 0 km and 70 km give relative fault parallel slip rates of 28 2 and 30 2 mm yr respectively these observations indicate that right lateral deformation rates increase with distance from the fault possible explanations for the gradient observed in the geodetic data are elastic strain accumulation along the creeping segment or significant distributed deformation on off fault structures

imaging topographic growth by long lived postseismic afterslip at sefidabeh east iran this paper describes observations and models of the postseismic deformation following the 1994 sefidabeh earthquake sequence in east iran which shed light on the nature of the earthquake cycle and the mechanisms of topographic growth in the region interferometric synthetic aperture radar observations show creeping fault motion postseismic afterslip on an array of faults some of these faults probably represent the extensions of those that ruptured in the blind thrust faulting earthquakes in 1994 and cut through the entire seismogenic layer while others are shallow and break up the hanging walls of the coseismic faults the postseismic slip accommodates at least part of the vertical displacement gradient resulting from the buried coseismic slip which was concentrated at depths of greater than 5 km the postseismic afterslip is visible for over 16 years following the earthquakes agreement between the areas of postseismic uplift and indications of long term motion preserved in the geomorphology suggest that shallow fault slip during seismic cycles similar to the one we have observed governs the development of the landscape in the region slip on an array of shallow faults provides a mechanism for the development of short wavelength topography and geological structures above active thrust faults and has important implications for the interpretation of shallow geological features produced in regions experiencing similar seismic cycles to that at sefidabeh

statistical tests of additional plate boundaries from plate motion inversions we have investigated the application of the f ratio test a standard statistical technique to the results of relative plate motion inversions the method tests whether the improvement in fit of the model to the data resulting from the addition of another plate to the model is greater than that expected purely by chance this approach appears to be useful in determining whether additional plate boundaries are justified we confirm previous results favoring separate north american and south american plates with a boundary located between 30 n and the equator using chase s global relative motion data we show that in addition to separate west african and somalian plates separate west indian and australian plates with a best fitting boundary between 70 e and 90 e can be resolved these results are generally consistent with the observation that the indian plate s internal deformation extends somewhat westward of the ninetyeast ridge the relative motion pole is similar to minster and jordan s and predicts the nw se compression observed in earthquake mechanisms near the ninetyeast ridge

stress transfer by the 1988 1989 m 5 3 and 5 4 lake elsman foreshocks to the loma prieta fault unclamping at the site of peak mainshock slip we study the stress transferred by the june 27 1988 m 5 3 and august 8 1989 m 5 4 lake elsman earthquakes the largest events to strike within 15 km of the future loma prieta rupture zone during 74 years before the 1989 m 6 9 loma prieta earthquake we find that the first lake elsman event brought the rupture plane of the second event 0 3 1 6 bars 0 03 0 16 mpa closer to coulomb failure but that the lake elsman events did not bring the future loma prieta hypocentral zone closer to failure instead the lake elsman earthquakes are calculated to have reduced the normal stress on or undamped the loma prieta rupture surface by 0 5 1 0 bar 0 05 0 10 mpa at the site where the greatest slip subsequently occurred in the loma prieta earthquake this association between the sites of peak unclamping and slip suggests that the lake elsman events did indeed influence the loma prieta rupture process unclamping the fault would have locally lowered the resistance to sliding such an effect could have been enhanced if the lowered normal stress permitted fluid infusion into the undamped part of the fault although less well recorded the ml 5 0 1964 and ml 5 3 1967 corralitos events struck within 10 km of the southwest end of the future loma prieta rupture no similar relationship between the normal stress change and subsequent loma prieta slip is observed although the high slip patch southwest of the loma prieta epicenter corresponds roughly to the site of calculated coulomb stress increase for a low coefficient of friction the lake elsman loma prieta result is similar to that for the 1987 m 6 2 elmore ranch and m 6 7 superstition hills earthquakes suggesting that foreshocks might influence the distribution of mainshock slip rather than the site of mainshock nucleation

how similar were the 1934 and 1966 parkfield earthquakes bakun and mcevilly 1984 showed that surface waves from the 1934 and 1966 parkfield earthquakes are remarkably similar this observation together with other seismic and geologic data led to the forecast of a repeat of a characteristic parkfield earthquake by 1993 in this paper we model near field geodetic measurements collected before and after the 1934 and 1966 parkfield earthquakes the slip in 1934 on the northwestern half of the rupture is poorly constrained due to the limited station coverage in this part of the rupture near the hypocenter the geodetic measurements permit the two earthquakes to have the same slip distribution on the other hand the data clearly show that the 1966 earthquake ruptured through the right step in the surface trace of the fault while the 1934 earthquake stopped northwest of the step if we assume only that the slip distribution is to some degree smooth we find that the centroid of the 1934 slip distribution could be as much as 10 km northwest of the centroid of the 1966 slip the data are consistent with but do not demand the largest slip in 1934 occurring in a region of low slip in 1966 the geodetically determined moments of the two earthquakes from smooth inversions are indistinguishable m0 4 4 0 4 1018 n m we also examine inversions in which we assume that the two earthquakes start identically and estimate how far down the fault the two earthquakes could have remained the same we find that the 1934 event could have had the same slip as in 1966 up to the fault step the 1934 earthquake must have stopped at the step whereas the 1966 event slipped southeast of the step in this quasi characteristic model m0 of the 1934 quake is only 60 of that in 1966 the difference presumably occurring as afterslip in 1966 if the 1934 geodetic moment was indeed less than in 1966 and the loading rate was constant this observation could explain the early occurrence of the 1934 earthquake

global positioning system reoccupation of early triangulation sites tectonic deformation of the southern coast ranges we study tectonic deformation in the southern coast ranges california we use triangulation and astronomic azimuth data collected since 1875 trilateration since 1970 and global positioning system data collected from 1986 to 1987 two modeling techniques have been used an elastic block fault model is applied to study the tectonic motion of the san andreas fault and the san gregorio hosgri fault station velocities are modeled to study regional deformations results show that the regional deformation is predominantly controlled by deep strike slip motion along the san andreas fault at a rate of 33 2 mm yr deep slip along the san gregorio hosgri fault is about 0 4 mm yr assuming a locked fault to a depth of 20 km convergence normal to the san andreas fault in the southern coast ranges is not greater than 0 02 rad yr

gps observations of fault afterslip and upper crustal deformation following the northridge earthquake global positioning system gps observations indicate that significant aseismic deformation occurred in the year following the january 17 1994 northridge earthquake the postseismic observations show the same sense of motion as the coseismic compared with the coseismic displacements the far field postseismic motions 1 2 fault dimensions away are proportionally larger than those seen in the near field the postseismic data are best modeled with two faults one on the rupture plane and one located in the shallow crust the upper crustal fault may represent an actual fault or may be indicative of viscous relaxation occurring in the upper crust the inferred afterslip and or relaxation moment is approximately 2 9 1018 n m or 22 of the mainshock moment release we expect that the moment release due to the afterslip and relaxation effectively reduce the earthquake hazard locally it is not clear from this study how the postseismic deformation loads the surrounding faults or alters the state of stress on those faults

geophysical constraints on the crustal structure of the east european platform margin and its foreland based on the polcrust 01 deep reflection seismic profile abstract a new 240 km long deep seismic reflection profile polcrust 01 was recently acquired in se poland crossing the east european platform eep margin south east of the north german polish caledonides ngpc here we document geophysical field work and subsequent data processing and modeling results obtained from reflection seismic data are augmented by results of the first arrival tomography applied to co located extended offset refraction data as well as potential field modeling and comparison with the available wide angle reflection refraction data our preferred model of the crustal structure derived by integrating seismic potential field and geological data is composed of crustal blocks terranes separated by nearly vertical faults these are i intact part of the eep ii ysogory terrane iii malopolska terrane and iv carpathian mts with their basement reflective lower crust of the eep can be an inherited feature of crustal extension rifting or compressional tectonics acting at the cratonic margin the teisseyre tornquist zone ttz is depicted as a caledonian transcurrent accretion zone corresponding with the near vertical tomaszow fault bounding the ysogory terrane to the east the crust of the ysogory terrane suggests eep affinity although its middle lower crust thickness is highly reduced the malopolska terrane seems to be internally subdivided into blocks of different magnetic properties of the lower crust the carpathian frontal thrust is associated with a change in the rock properties in the deep basement an unknown crustal block which is not visible in seismic data alone the interpreted structure of the caledonian terranes and their tectonic boundaries favors a transcurrent style of a crustal accretion along the central and se polish segments of the ttz implying a very complex nature of the caledonian accretionary belt of central europe from an array of terranes displaced along the ttz to an accretionary wedge of the collisional ngpc orogen between nw poland and southern north sea area

response of the san andreas fault to the 1983 coalinga nunez earthquakes an application of interaction based probabilities for parkfield 1 the parkfield cholame section of the san andreas fault site of an unfulfilled earthquake forecast in 1985 is the best monitored section of the world s most closely watched fault in 1983 the m 6 5 coalinga and m 6 0 nunez events struck 25 km northeast of parkfield seismicity rates climbed for 18 months along the creeping section of the san andreas north of parkfield and dropped for 6 years along the locked section to the south right lateral creep also slowed or reversed from parkfield south here we calculate that the coalinga sequence increased the shear and coulomb stress on the creeping section causing the rate of small shocks to rise until the added stress was shed by additional slip however the 1983 events decreased the shear and coulomb stress on the parkfield segment causing surface creep and seismicity rates to drop we use these observations to cast the likelihood of a parkfield earthquake into an interaction based probability which includes both the renewal of stress following the 1966 parkfield earthquake and the stress transfer from the 1983 coalinga events we calculate that the 1983 shocks dropped the 10 year probability of a m 6 parkfield earthquake by 22 from 54 22 to 42 23 and that the probability did not recover until about 1991 when seismicity and creep resumed our analysis may thus explain why the parkfield earthquake did not strike in the 1980s but not why it was absent in the 1990s we calculate a 58 17 probability of a m 6 parkfield earthquake during 2001 2011 index terms 7223 seismology seismic hazard assessment and prediction 7230 seismology seismicity and seismotectonics 7260 seismology theory and modeling keywords coalinga earthquake parkfield stress change earthquake probability seismicity rate

coseismic and postseismic slip of the 2004 parkfield earthquake from space geodetic data we invert interferometric synthetic aperture radar insar data jointly with campaign and continuous global positioning system gps data for slip in the coseismic and postseismic periods of the 2004 parkfield earthquake the insar dataset consists of eight interferograms from data collected by the envisat and radarsat satellites spanning the time of the earthquake and variable amounts of the postseismic period the two datasets complement each other with the insar providing dense sampling of motion in the range direction of the satellite and the gps providing more sparse but three dimensional measurements of ground motion the model assumes exponential decay of the postseismic slip with a decay time constant of 0 087 years determined from time series modeling of continuous gps and creepmeter data we find a geodetic moment magnitude of m 6 2 for a 1 day coseismic model and m w 6 1 for the entire postseismic period the coseismic rupture occurred mainly in two slip asperities one near the hypocenter and the other 15 20 km north postseismic slip occurred on the shallow portions of the fault and near the rupture areas of two m 5 0 aftershocks a comparison of the geodetic slip models with seismic moment estimates suggests that the coseismic moment release of the parkfield earthquake is as little as 25 of the total this underlines the importance of aseismic slip in the slip budget for the parkfield segment online material complete data tables and supplemental tables

delayed triggering of the 1999 hector mine earthquake by viscoelastic stress transfer stress changes in the crust due to an earthquake can hasten the failure of neighbouring faults and induce earthquake sequences in some cases1 2 3 4 5 the 1999 hector mine earthquake in southern california magnitude 7 1 occurred only 20 km from and 7 years after the 1992 landers earthquake magnitude 7 3 this suggests that the hector mine earthquake was triggered in some fashion by the earlier event but uncertainties in the slip distribution and rock friction properties associated with the landers earthquake have led to widely varying estimates of both the magnitude and sign of the resulting stress change that would be induced at the location of the hector mine hypocentre with estimates varying from 1 4 bar ref 6 to 0 5 bar ref 7 more importantly coseismic stress changes alone cannot satisfactorily explain the delay of 7 years between the two events here we present the results of a three dimensional viscoelastic model that simulates stress transfer from the ductile lower crust and upper mantle to the brittle upper crust in the 7 years following the landers earthquake using viscoelastic parameters that can reproduce the observed horizontal surface deformation following the landers earthquake our calculations suggest that lower crustal or upper mantle flow can lead to postseismic stress increases of up to 1 2 bar at the location of the hector mine hypocentre during this time period contributing to the eventual occurrence of the 1999 hector mine earthquake these results attest to the importance of considering viscoelastic processes in the assessment of seismic hazard8 9 10 11

postseismic relaxation and transient creep 1 postseismic deformation has been observed in the epicentral area following the 1992 landers m 7 3 1999 chi chi m 7 6 1999 hector mine m 7 1 2002 denali m 7 9 2003 san simeon m 6 5 and 2004 parkfield m 6 0 earthquakes the observations consist of repeated gps measurements of the position of one monument relative to another separation 100 km the early observations t 0 1 year are well fit by the function a c log t where t is the time after the earthquake and a and c are constants chosen to fit the data because a log t time dependence is characteristic of transient primary creep the early postseismic response may be governed by transient creep as benioff proposed in 1951 that inference is provisional as the stress conditions prevailing in postseismic relaxation are not identical to the constant stress condition in creep experiments the observed logarithmic time dependence includes no characteristic time that might aid in identifying the micromechanical cause

seismogenic faulting of the sedimentary sequence and laterally variable material properties in the zagros mountains iran revealed by the august 2014 murmuri e dehloran earthquake sequence we present source models for the august 2014 murmuri dehloran earthquake sequence in the zagros mountains of iran an mw6 2 mainshock was followed by an aftershock sequence containing five events of mw 5 4 models of p and sh waveforms show that all events had dominantly thrust faulting mechanisms and had centroid depths that place them within the thick sedimentary sequence above the crystalline basement the combination of our estimated focal mechanisms relative relocations of the event hypocentres and the surface displacement patterns observed using insar imply that the mainshock and largest aftershock ruptured different fault planes and both contributed to the surface deformation the fault planes both slipped in horizontally elongated patches possibly due to rheological layering limiting the updip and downdip extent of rupture the slip vector of the murmuri mainshock implies that the decollement beneath the lorestan arc is weaker than any such feature beneath the dezful embayment providing an explanation for the plan view sinuosity of the range front of the zagros mountains

triggering of earthquake aftershocks by dynamic stresses it is thought that small static stress changes due to permanent fault displacement can alter the likelihood of or trigger earthquakes on nearby faults many studies of triggering in the near field particularly of aftershocks rely on these static changes as the triggering agent and consider them only in terms of equivalent changes in the applied load on the fault here we report a comparison of the aftershock pattern of the moment magnitude mw 7 3 landers earthquake not only with static stress changes but also with transient oscillatory stress changes transmitted as seismic waves that is dynamic stresses dynamic stresses do not permanently change the applied load and thus can trigger earthquakes only by altering the mechanical state or properties of the fault zone these dynamically weakened faults may fail after the seismic waves have passed by and might even cause earthquakes that would not otherwise have occurred we find similar asymmetries in the aftershock and dynamic stress patterns the latter being due to rupture propagation whereas the static stress changes lack this asymmetry previous studies have shown that dynamic stresses can promote failure at remote distances but here we show that they can also do so nearby

recurrence models and parkfield california earthquakes main shocks of the earthquake sequences that occurred on the parkfield section of the san andreas fault in central california in 1922 1934 and 1966 are characterized by southeast rupture expansion over the same 20 to 30 km long section of the fault whereas the seismic moments for the 1922 and 1934 events are identical to within a precision of 10 the seismic moment for 1966 is 20 greater than for the earlier events to within a precision of 20 the parkfield area seismicity in general seems well described by a recurring moderate size characteristic earthquake repeating the same epicenter magnitude seismic moment rupture area and southeast direction of rupture expansion an unexplained 10 year advance of the 1934 event is the only discrepancy in the hypothesis that the parkfield earthquakes in 1857 1881 1901 1922 1934 and 1966 represent a strictly periodic process assuming the strictly periodic model and the absence since 1966 of the perturbations hypothesized for the 1922 to 1934 period the next characteristic parkfield earthquake should occur between 1983 and 1993

slip rate increase at parkfield in 1993 detected by high precision edm and borehole tensor strainmeters on two of the instrument networks at parkfield california the two color electronic distance meter edm network and borehole tensor strainmeter btsm network we have detected a rate change starting in 1993 that has persisted at least 5 years these and other instruments capable of measuring crustal deformation were installed at parkfield in anticipation of a moderate m6 earthquake on the san andreas fault many of these instruments have been in operation since the mid 1980s and have established an excellent baseline to judge changes in rate of deformation and the coherence of such changes between instruments the onset of the observed rate change corresponds in time to two other changes at parkfield from late 1992 through late 1994 the parkfield region had an increase in number of m4 to m5 earthquakes relative to the preceding 6 years the deformation rate change also coincides with the end of a 7 year period of sub normal rainfall both the spatial coherence of the rate change and hydrological modeling suggest a tectonic explanation for the rate change from these observations we infer that the rate of slip increased over the period 1993 1998

crystallographic orientations of high angle grain boundaries in dynamically recrystallized quartz first results abstract the crystallography and geometry of high angle grain boundaries from dynamically recrystallized quartz have been studied on the basis of combined electron backscatter diffraction and universal stage measurements the complete crystallographic orientation of the grain boundaries could be calculated the u stage rotation of the grain boundaries to a vertical position reveals that they are never curved but always consist of straight segments our results show that these segments preferentially occupy rhombohedral trapezohedral and bipyramidal orientations i e orientations in a 25 50 girdle to the c axis a specific albeit low number of segments with special crystallographic orientation with respect to a neighbouring quartz grain often shows another special orientation with respect to the other neighbouring grain preferred combinations of grain boundary orientations related to both neighbouring grains are i low index rhombohedral and high index trapezohedral ii low index bipyramidal and low index trapezohedral or high index rhombohedral and iii low index trapezohedral and low or high index trapezohedral in certain cases such as at triple junctions the boundaries occupy specific trapezohedral orientations with a constant angle to the c axis this argues for energy isotropy of trapezohedral planes with the same angle to the quartz c axis in general good match coincidence site lattice csl orientations are not preferentially occupied so that most of the studied grain boundaries represent general boundaries the formation of straight segments in special crystallographic orientations indicates the crystallographic control and implies an energy reduction of certain general boundaries

interaction of the san andreas fault creeping segment with adjacent great rupture zones and earthquake recurrence at parkfield three dimensional finite element calculations are employed to study interactions in space and time between the creeping segment of the san andreas fault in central california and the adjacent currently locked zones of the 1857 and 1906 great earthquakes vertically the model consists of an elastic upper crust over a maxwell viscoelastic region representing the entire lower crust or a narrower horizontal detachment layer and a stiffer and more viscous upper mantle the crust has a single vertical fault extending to the top of the mantle at 25 km depth in zones along strike corresponding to the 1857 and 1906 events the top 12 5 km of the fault is locked against slip except in great earthquakes below the locked zones and everywhere along the creeping region between them the fault is freely slipping the model parameters are compatible with seismological and geological observations and with a ratio of maxwell relaxation time to the relaxing layer thickness in the range 1 to 2 yr km as established by li and rice 1987 and fares and rice 1988 based on fits to geodetic data along the san andreas fault an imposed constant far field shear motion and periodic 1857 and 1906 type earthquakes generate slip rates along the creeping fault segment that evolve in time throughout the entire earthquake cycle shortly after an adjacent great earthquake slip rates in the creeping zone are higher than the far field velocity while later in the cycle they are lower hence time dependency should be accounted for when measurements of fault slip are used to estimate the plate motion if parkfield earthquakes are a response to a time dependent loading of the type simulated here their recurrence interval would tend to lengthen with time since the 1857 event thus the hypothesis of characteristic periodic earthquakes at parkfield may not provide the best estimate of the occurrence time of the next event using for example the statistics of past events and assuming that parkfield earthquakes are a response to a slip deficit near middle mountain and that the elastic crustal layer is 17 5 km thick we find that the next event is predicted for about 1992 9 years if the lower crust is a 7 5 km thick layer having a material relaxation time of 15 years and 1995 11 years if the 7 5 km thick lower crust is characterized by a relaxation time of 7 5 years these values may be compared to the 1988 7 years estimate based on periodicity in time the modeling results also indicate that the interaction between the 1857 and 1906 rupture zones is small

change of apparent segmentation of the san andreas fault around parkfield from space geodetic observations across multiple periods sequences of earthquakes are commonly represented as a succession of periods of interseismic stress accumulation followed by coseismic and postseismic phases of stress release because the recurrence time of large earthquakes is often greater than the available span of space geodetic data it has been challenging to monitor the evolution of interseismic loading in its entire duration here we analyze large data sets of surface deformation at different key episodes around the cholame parkfield and creeping segments of the san andreas fault that show evidence of significant deceleration of fault slip during the interseismic period we compare the average fault slip rates before and after the 2004 mw6 parkfield earthquake in the 1986 2004 and 2006 2012 periods respectively avoiding 2 years of postseismic deformation after 2004 using a combination of gps data from the plate boundary observatory the southern california earthquake center crustal motion map and the bay area velocity unification networks and interferometric synthetic aperture radar from the advanced land observing satellite alos and envisat satellites we show that the area of coupling at the transition between the parkfield and cholame segments appears larger later in the interseismic period than it does earlier on while strong plate coupling is uniform across the parkfield and cholame segments in the 1986 2004 period creep occurs south of the 2004 epicenter after 2006 making segmentation of the san andreas fault south of parkfield more clearly apparent these observations indicate that analyses of surface deformation late in the earthquake cycle may overestimate the area of plate coupling a fault surface creeping much below plate rate may in some case be a region that does not promote earthquake nucleation but rather just be at a slower stage of its evolution our analysis also shows signs of large variation of slip velocity above and below plate rate in the creeping segment indicating that cycles of weakening and hardening can also be at play in dominantly aseismic areas

coseismic and initial postseismic deformation from the 2004 parkfield california earthquake observed by global positioning system electronic distance meter creepmeters and borehole strainmeters global positioning system gps electronic distance meter creepmeter and strainmeter measurements spanning the m 6 0 parkfield california earthquake are examined using these data from 100 sec through 9 months following the mainshock the omori s law with rate inversely related to time 1 t p and p ranging between 0 7 and 1 3 characterizes the time dependent deformation during the postseismic period these results are consistent with creep models for elastic solids with an accurate function of postseismic response the coseismic displacements can be estimated from the high rate 1 min sampling gps and the coseismic displacements are approximately 75 of those estimated from the daily solutions consequently fault slip models using daily solutions overestimate coseismic slip in addition at 2 months and at 8 months following the mainshock postseismic displacements are modeled as slip on the san andreas fault with a lower bound on the moment exceeding that of the coseismic moment online material data description and supplementary figures tables and data used in models and time series analysis

synthetic aperture radar interferometry to measure earth s surface topography and its deformation synthetic aperture radar interferometry insar from earth orbiting spacecraft provides a new tool to map global topography and deformation of the earth s surface radar images taken from slightly different viewing directions allow the construction of digital elevation models of meter scale accuracy these data sets aid in the analysis and interpretation of tectonic and volcanic landscapes if the earth s surface deformed between two radar image acquisitions a map of the surface dis placement with tens of meters resolution and subcentimeter accuracy can be con structed this review gives a basic overview of insar for earth scientists and presents a selection of geologic applications that demonstrate the unique capabilities of insar for mapping the topography and deformation of the earth

fault slip distribution of the 1999 mw 7 1 hector mine california earthquake estimated from satellite radar and gps measurements we use a combination of satellite radar and gps data to estimate the slip distribution of the 1999 m w 7 1 hector mine earthquake a right lateral strikeslip earthquake that occurred on a northwest southeast striking fault in the southern california mojave desert the data include synthetic aperture radar interferograms insar from both ascending and descending orbits radar amplitude image offset fields sario for both ascending and descending azimuth directions and campaign gps observations from 55 stations provided by agnew et al 2002 we model the fault with nine segments derived from the field mapped fault rupture the sario data and aftershock locations we first estimate the dip of each fault segment as well as a single constant strike slip component across each segment resulting in an average dip of 83 to the northeast and slip of up to 5 6 m then we fix the optimal fault segment dip discretize the fault segments into 1 5 km 1 5 km patches and solve for the variable slip distribution using a nonnegative least squares method that includes an appropriate degree of smoothing our preferred solution has both right lateral strike slip and reverse faulting the estimated geodetic moment is 5 93 10 19 n m m w 7 1 similar to seismological estimates indicating that there are insignificant interseismic and postseismic deformation signals in the data we find strike slip displacements of up to 6 0 m and reverse faulting of up to 1 6 m with the maximum slip located just northwest of the epicenter most of the slip is concentrated northwest and south of the epicenter little slip is found on the northeastern branch of the fault the sario data and our modeling indicate that the amount and extent of surface fault rupture were underestimated in the field

space geodetic measurement of crustal deformation in central and southern california 1984 1992 we estimate the velocity field in central and southern california using global positioning system gps observations from 1986 to 1992 and very long baseline interferometry vlbi observations from 1984 to 1991 our core network includes 12 gps sites spaced approximately 50 km apart mostly in the western transverse ranges and the coastal borderlands the precision and accuracy of the relative horizontal velocities estimated for these core stations are adequately described by a 95 confidence ellipse with a semiminor axis of approximately 2 mm yr oriented roughly north south and a semimajor axis of approximately 3 mm yr oriented east west

interactions between the landers and hector mine california earthquakes from space geodesy boundary element modeling and time dependent friction the m w 7 1 hector mine earthquake happened 7 years after the 1992 m w 7 3 landers earthquake within a system of right lateral strike slip faults comprising the eastern california shear zone because estimates of recurrence intervals of m 7 earthquakes on these faults range anywhere from 1500 to 50 000 years the close temporal spacing of these two earthquakes suggests that there is some interaction between the two current models of simple coulomb static stress interactions between the earthquake ruptures do not predict an obvious cause and effect relationship the interaction between the computed normal and right lateral shear stress reductions induced by the landers earthquake at the hector mine hypocenter is unclear we use a combination of space geodesy boundary element modeling and computer modeling of time dependent fault friction to investigate the interaction between the two earthquakes we compare stress changes on the hector mine rupture plane induced by the landers earthquake with the detailed slip distribution inferred using a combination of gps and insar data the slip distributions of both earthquakes are also used to infer the magnitude of the shear stress drop on each earthquake rupture and the orientation of the remote background stress consistent with these two recent events for each earthquake the azimuth of the remote maximum compressive stress was approximately 17 6 and the magnitude of the shear stress drop was 8 1 mpa on the landers rupture and 10 2 mpa on the hector mine rupture using a simple spring and slider model as a proxy for the rate and state frictional response of the hector mine faults to landers earthquake imposed stress steps we find that while a decrease in normal stress at the hector mine hypocenter would by itself have caused the hector mine earthquake to nucleate immediately the simultaneous decrease in shear stress may have caused a delay in the peak shear loading consideration of an acceptable range of rate and state friction parameters secular strain rates and crustal stiffnesses leads us to conclude that this delay could have been 0 to 40 years

stress triggering of the 1999 hector mine earthquake by transient deformation following the 1992 landers earthquake the m 7 3 june 28 1992 landers and m 7 1 october 16 1999 hector mine earthquakes california both right lateral strike slip events on nnw trending subvertical faults occurred in close proximity in space and time in a region where recurrence times for surface rupturing earthquakes are thousands of years this sug gests a causal role for the landers earthquake in triggering the hector mine earth quake previous modeling of the static stress change associated with the landers earthquake shows that the area of peak hector mine slip lies where the coulomb failure stress promoting right lateral strike slip failure was high but the nucleation point of the hector mine rupture was neutrally to weakly promoted depending on the assumed coefficient of friction possible explanations that could account for the 7 year delay between the two ruptures include background tectonic stressing dissi pation of fluid pressure gradients rate and state dependent friction effects and post landers viscoelastic relaxation of the lower crust and upper mantle by employing a viscoelastic model calibrated by geodetic data collected during the time period between the landers and hector mine events we calculate that postseismic relaxa tion produced a transient increase in coulomb failure stress of about 0 7 bars on the impending hector mine rupture surface the increase is greatest over the broad surface that includes the 1999 nucleation point and the site of peak slip further north since stress changes of magnitude greater than or equal to 0 1 bar are associated with documented causal fault interactions elsewhere viscoelastic relaxation likely con tributed to the triggering of the hector mine earthquake this interpretation relies on the assumption that the faults occupying the central mojave desert i e both the landers and hector mine rupturing faults were critically stressed just prior to the landers earthquake

coseismic slip distribution of the 2003 mw 6 6 san simeon earthquake california determined from gps measurements and seismic waveform data 1 we combine geodetic and seismic data sets to constrain the coseismic slip distribution of the mw6 6 san simeon earthquake which occurred in the central california coast ranges on december 22 2003 we use continuous and survey mode gps observations along with seismic waveform data from the california integrated seismic network cisn we invert both data sets for the distribution of finite fault slip in a layered earth model the inversion results indicate that the rupture extends to the southeast of the epicenter for approximately 25 30 km and occurred in a relatively shallow depth range between 1 to 10 km the average and peak slip are 0 61 m and 2 37 m respectively the scalar seismic moment is 7 85e18 nm and the static stress drop 1 7 mpa this thrust earthquake is characterized by its shallow along strike extended slip

aseismic slip and fault normal strain along the central creeping section of the san andreas fault 1 we use gps data to measure the aseismic slip along the central san andreas fault csaf and the deformation across adjacent faults comparison of edm and gps data sets implies that except for small scale transients the fault motion has been steady over the last 40 years we add 42 new gps velocities along the csaf to constrain the regional strain distribution shear strain rates are less than 0 083 0 010 strain yr adjacent to the creeping saf with 1 4 5 mm yr of contraction across the coast ranges dislocation modeling of the data gives a deep long term slip rate of 31 35 mm yr and a shallow 0 12 km creep rate of 28 mm yr along the central portion of the csaf consistent with surface creep measurements the lower shallow slip rate may be due to the effect of partial locking along the csaf or reflect reduced creep rates late in the earthquake cycle of the adjoining saf rupture zones

fault steps and the dynamic rupture process 2 d numerical simulations of a spontaneously propagating shear fracture fault steps may have controlled the sizes of the 1966 parkfield 1968 borrego mountain 1979 imperial valley 1979 coyote lake and the 1987 superstition hills earthquakes this project investigates the effect of fault steps of various geometries on the dynamic rupture process we have used a finite difference code to simulate spontaneous rupture propagation in two dimensions we employ a slip weakening fracture criterion as the condition for rupture propagation and examine how rupture on one plane initiates rupture on parallel fault planes the geometry of the two parallel fault planes allows for stepover widths of 0 5 to 10 0 km and overlaps of 5 to 5 km our results demonstrate that the spontaneous rupture on the first fault segment continues to propagate onto the second fault segment for a range of geometries for both compressional and dilational fault steps a major difference between the compressional and dilational cases is that a dilational step requires a longer time delay between the rupture front reaching the end of the first fault segment and initiating rupture on the second segment therefore our dynamic study implies that a compressional step will be jumped quickly whereas a dilational step will cause a time delay leading to a lower apparent rupture velocity we also find that the rupture is capable of jumping a wider dilational step than compressional step

nonvolcanic tremor evolution and the san simeon and parkfield california earthquakes nonvolcanic tremors occur adjacent to locked faults and may be closely related to the generation of earthquakes monitoring of the san andreas fault in the parkfield california region revealed that after two strong earthquakes tremor activity increased in a nearly dormant tremor zone increased and became periodic in a previously active zone and has remained elevated and periodic for over 4 years static shear and coulomb stress increases of 6 to 14 kilopascals from these two earthquakes are coincident with sudden increases in tremor rates the persistent changes in tremor suggest that stress is now accumulating more rapidly beneath this part of the san andreas fault which ruptured in the moment magnitude 7 8 ft tejon earthquake of 1857

imaging the source region of the 2003 san simeon earthquake within the weak franciscan subduction complex central california data collected from the 2003 mw6 5 san simeon earthquake sequence in central california and a 1986 seismic refraction experiment demonstrate that the weak franciscan subduction complex suffered brittle failure in a region without significant velocity contrast across a slip plane relocated hypocenters suggest a spatial relationship between the seismicity and the oceanic fault although blind faulting on a nearby unknown fault is an equally plausible alternative the aftershock volume is sandwiched between the nacimiento and oceanic faults and is characterized by rocks of low compressional velocity vp abutted to the east and west by rocks of higher vp this volume of inferred franciscan rocks is embedded within the larger santa lucia anticline pore fluids whose presence is implied by elevated vp vs values may locally decrease normal stress and limit the aftershock depth distribution between 3 to 10 km within the hanging wall the paucity of aftershocks along the mainshock rupture surface may reflect either the absence of a damage zone or an almost complete stress drop within the low vp or weak rock matrix surrounding the mainshock rupture

static stress impact of the 1992 landers earthquake sequence on nucleation and slip at the site of the 1999 m 7 1 hector mine earthquake southern california the proximity in time 7 years and space 20 km between the 1992 m 7 3 landers earthquake and the 1999 m 7 1 hector mine event suggests a possible link between the quakes we thus calculated the static stress changes following the 1992 joshua tree landers big bear earthquake sequence on the 1999 m 7 1 hector mine rupture plane in southern california resolving the stress tensor into rake parallel and fault normal components and comparing with changes in the post landers seismicity rate allows us to estimate a coefficient of friction on the hector mine plane seismicity following the 1992 sequence increased at hector mine where the fault was unclamped this increase occurred despite a calculated reduction in right lateral shear stress the dependence of seismicity change primarily on normal stress change implies a high coefficient of static friction 0 8 we calculated the coulomb stress change using 0 8 and found that the hector mine hypocenter was mildly encouraged 0 5 bars by the 1992 earthquake sequence in addition the region of peak slip during the hector mine quake occurred where coulomb stress is calculated to have increased by 0 5 1 5 bars in general slip was more limited where coulomb stress was reduced though there was some slip where the strongest stress decrease was calculated interestingly many smaller earthquakes nucleated at or near the 1999 hector mine hypocenter after 1992 but only in 1999 did an event spread to become a m 7 1 earthquake

slip history of the 2003 san simeon earthquake constrained by combining 1 hz gps strong motion and teleseismic data 1 the slip history of the 2003 san simeon earthquake is constrained by combining strong motion and teleseismic data along with gps static offsets and 1 hz gps observations comparisons of a 1 hz gps time series and a co located strong motion data are in very good agreement demonstrating a new application of gps the inversion results for this event indicate that the rupture initiated at a depth of 8 5 km and propagated southeastwards with a speed 3 0 km sec with rake vectors forming a fan structure around the hypocenter we obtained a peak slip of 2 8 m and total seismic moment of 6 2 10 18 nm we interpret the slip distribution as indicating that the hanging wall rotates relative to the footwall around the hypocenter in a sense that appears consistent with the shape of the mapped fault trace index terms 1242 geodesy and gravity seismic deformations 7205 7212 seismology earthquake ground motions and engineering 8123 tectonophysics dynamics seismotectonics citation ji c k m larson y tan k w hudnut and k choi 2004 slip history of the 2003 san simeon earthquake constrained by combining 1 hz gps strong motion and teleseismic data geophys res lett 31 l17608 doi 10 1029 2004gl020448

fault slip rates at depth from recurrence intervals of repeating microearthquakes unique attributes in sequences of recurring similar microearthquakes at parkfield california provide a means for inferring slip rate at depth throughout the active fault surface from the time intervals between sequence events application of the method using an 11 year microseismicity record revealed systematic spatial and temporal changes in the slip rate that were synchronous with earthquake activity and other independent measures of fault zone slip if this phenomenon is found to be generally common behavior in active faults it forms the basis for a method to monitor the changing strain field throughout a seismogenic fault zone

time dependent triggered afterslip following the 1989 loma prieta earthquake we employ a modified version of the network inversion filter to investigate time dependent slip following the 1989 loma prieta earthquake previous analysis of global positioning system gps and leveling data suggests afterslip on the loma prieta rupture as well as aseismic slip on a thrust fault northeast of the san andreas fault which we identify with the foothills thrust belt we analyzed 173 daily gps solution files at 62 stations collected from 1989 8 to 1998 3 a total of 1 134 three dimensional relative baseline determinations the observed position changes are assumed to result from secular deformation random benchmark motions and temporally varying fault slip the data reveal temporal variations in slip rate but poorly resolve spatial variations in fault slip the amount of temporal smoothing is estimated by maximum likelihood conditional on this estimate reverse slip on the foothills thrust decays from 45 12 mm yr immediately after the earthquake to zero by 1992 reverse slip on the loma prieta rupture surface decays from 57 11 mm yr to zero by 1994 right lateral slip on the loma prieta rupture surface decays monotonically from 30 10 mm yr to zero by 1994 these results suggest that 1 triggered afterslip can occur off the main rupture zone on adjacent faults 2 shallow afterslip dominated the postseismic deformation for the 8 years following the earthquake and 3 postseismic slip on the foothills thrust may account for a significant portion of its total slip budget

anomalous shear strain at parkfield during 1993 94 three borehole tensor strainmeters btsm installed near parkfield and separated by more than 5km have established a good baseline of data spanning the past eight years a significant change in the accumulation rate of shear strain 0 5 and 1 0 microstrain per year at two of the sites commencing approximately in mid 1993 and continuing to 1995 is evident in these data some supporting evidence for a change in the strain rate at that time is seen in dilatometer data geodetic measurements fault zone properties and microearthquake locations there was also an increase in medium level seismic activity m 4 7 on 10 20 92 m 3 9 on 10 26 92 m 3 5 on 3 13 93 m 4 4 on 4 3 93 m 4 8 on 11 14 93 in the middle mountain area while a rainfall induced strain may have caused the observed strain anomaly we propose a more likely explanation is that aseismic slip at depth on a section of the fault south of middle mountain produced the observed strain anomaly this anomaly is unique in the current data set

postseismic relaxation and aftershocks 1 perfettini et al 2005 suggested that the temporal dependence of surface displacements u t measured in the epicentral area following an earthquake is related to n t the cumulative number of aftershocks by the equation u t a bt cn t d 1 e t where a b c d and are constants chosen to fit the data and t is the postearthquake time n t appears in the expression for u t because both the aftershocks and a portion of u t are thought to be driven by the same source postseismic fault creep at subseismogenic depths on the downdip extension of the coseismic rupture we show that this equation with the actually observed n t fits the postseismic displacements recorded on several baselines following each of five earthquakes 1999 m7 6 chi chi taiwan 1999 m7 1 hector mine southern california 2002 m7 9 denali central alaska 2003 m6 5 san simeon central california and 2004 m6 0 parkfield central california earthquakes although there are plausible physical interpretations for each of the terms in the expression for u t the large number of adjustable constants a b c d and involved in fitting the rather simple postseismic displacements diminishes the significance of the fit because the observed n t is well fit by the modified omori s law fault creep at depth presumably exhibits the same temporal dependence that dependence could be explained if the rheology of the fault downdip from the coseismic rupture is consistent with ordinary transient creep montesi 2004 demonstrated that power law creep across a shear zone at depth would also produce that temporal signal

seismicity controlled by a frictional afterslip during a small magnitude seismic sequence m l 5 on the chihshang fault taiwan we report evidence for frictional afterslip at shallow depths about 5 to 7 km during a small magnitude seismic sequence with ml 5 along the chihshang fault a main active structure of the longitudinal valley in southeast taiwan the afterslip which was recorded by a nearby borehole dilatometer lasted about a month with a cumulative geodetic moment magnitude of 4 8 0 2 the afterslip comprised two stages and controlled the aftershock sequence the first postseismic stage which followed a ml 4 6 earthquake lasted about 6 h and mostly controlled the ruptures of neighboring asperities e g multiplets near the hypocenter then a 4 week duration large afterslip event following a ml 4 9 earthquake controlled the rate of aftershocks during its first 2 days through brittle creep the study presents a rare case of simultaneous seismological and geodetic observations for afterslip following earthquakes with magnitude lower than 5 furthermore the geodetic moment of the postseismic phase is at least equivalent to the coseismic moment of the sequence

slip on the san andreas fault at parkfield california over two earthquake cycles and the implications for seismic hazard parkfield california which experienced m 6 0 earthquakes in 1934 1966 and 2004 is one of the few locales for which geodetic observations span multiple earthquake cycles we undertake a comprehensive study of deformation over the most recent earthquake cycle and explore the results in the context of geodetic data collected prior to the 1966 event through joint inversion of the variety of parkfield geodetic measurements trilateration two color laser and global positioning system including previously unpublished two color data we estimate the spatial distribution of slip and slip rate along the san andreas using a fault geometry based on precisely relocated seismicity although the three most recent parkfield earthquakes appear complementary in their along strike distributions of slip they do not produce uniform strain release along strike over multiple seismic cycles since the 1934 earthquake more than 1 m of slip deficit has accumulated on portions of the fault that slipped in the 1966 and 2004 earthquakes and an average of 2 m of slip deficit exists on the 33 km of the fault southeast of gold hill to be released in a future perhaps larger earthquake it appears that the fault is capable of partially releasing stored strain in moderate earthquakes maintaining a disequilibrium through multiple earthquake cycles this complicates the application of simple earthquake recurrence models that assume only the strain accumulated since the most recent event is relevant to the size or timing of an upcoming earthquake our findings further emphasize that accumulated slip deficit is not sufficient for earthquake nucleation online material model fault geometry fit to the data for the inversions and model resolution

seismicity rate changes along the central california coast due to stress changes from the 2003 m 6 5 san simeon and 2004 m 6 0 parkfield earthquakes abstract we investigated the relationship between seismicity rate changes and modeled coulomb static stress changes from the 2003 m 6 5 san simeon and the 2004 m 6 0 parkfield earthquakes in central california coulomb stress modeling indicates that the san simeon mainshock loaded parts of the rinconada hosgri and san andreas strike slip faults along with the reverse faults of the southern los osos domain all of these loaded faults except for the san andreas experienced a seismicity rate increase at the time of the san simeon mainshock the parkfield earthquake occurred 9 months later on the loaded portion of the san andreas fault the parkfield earthquake unloaded the hosgri fault and the reverse faults of the southern los osos domain which both experienced seismicity rate decreases at the time of the parkfield event although the decreases may be related to the decay of san simeon triggered seismicity coulomb stress unloading from the parkfield earthquake appears to have altered the aftershock decay rate of the southern cluster of san simeon aftershocks which is deficient compared to the expected number of aftershocks from the omori decay parameters based on the pre parkfield aftershocks dynamic stress changes cannot explain the deficiency of aftershocks providing evidence that static stress changes affect earthquake occurrence however a burst of seismicity following the parkfield earthquake at ragged point where the static stress was decreased provides evidence for dynamic stress triggering it therefore appears that both coulomb static stress changes and dynamic stress changes affect the seismicity rate

near field postseismic deformation associated with the 1992 landers and 1999 hector mine california earthquakes after the landers earthquake m w 7 3 1992 489 a linear array of 10 monuments extending about 30 km n50 e on either side of the earthquake rupture plus a nearby off trend reference monument were surveyed frequently by gps until 2003 2 the array also spans the rupture of the subsequent hector mine earthquake m w 7 1 1999 792 the pre landers velocities of monuments in the array relative to interior north america were estimated from earlier trilateration and very long baseline interferometry measurements except at the reference monument the post landers velocities of the individual monuments in the array relaxed to their preseismic values within 4 years following the hector mine earthquake the velocities of the monuments relaxed to steady rates within 1 year those steady rates for the east components are about equal to the pre landers rates as is the steady rate for the north component of the one monument east of the hector mine rupture however the steady rates for the north components of the 10 monuments west of the rupture are systematically 10 mm yr 1 larger than the pre landers rates the relaxation to a steady rate is approximately exponential with decay times of 0 50 0 10 year following the landers earthquake and 0 32 0 18 year following the hector mine earthquake the postearthquake motions of the landers array following the landers earthquake are not well approximated by the viscoelastic coupling model of pollitz et al 2000 a similar viscoelastic coupling model pollitz et al 2001 is more successful in representing the deformation after the hector mine earthquake

the 1999 mw 7 1 hector mine california earthquake a test of the stress shadow hypothesis we test the stress shadow hypothesis for large earthquake interactions by examining the relationship between two large earthquakes that occurred in the mojave desert of southern california the 1992 m w 7 3 landers and 1999 m w 7 1 hector mine earthquakes we want to determine if the 1999 hector mine earthquake occurred at a location where the coulomb stress was increased earthquake advance stress trigger or decreased earthquake delay stress shadow by the previous large earthquake using four models of the landers rupture and a range of possible hypocentral planes for the hector mine earthquake we discover that most scenarios yield a landers induced relaxation stress shadow on the hector mine hypocentral plane although this result would seem to weigh against the stress shadow hypothesis the results become considerably more uncertain when the effects of a nearby landers aftershock the 1992 m l 5 4 pisgah earthquake are taken into account we calculate the combined static coulomb stress changes due to the landers and pisgah earthquakes to range from 0 3 to 0 3 mpa 3 to 3 bars at the possible hector mine hypocenters depending on choice of rupture model and hypocenter these varied results imply that the hector mine earthquake does not provide a good test of the stress shadow hypothesis for large earthquake interactions we use a simple approach that of static dislocations in an elastic half space yet we still obtain a wide range of both negative and positive coulomb stress changes our findings serve as a caution that more complex models purporting to explain the triggering or shadowing relationship between the 1992 landers and 1999 hector mine earthquakes need to also consider the parametric and geometric uncertainties raised here

tremor reveals stress shadowing deep postseismic creep and depth dependent slip recurrence on the lower crustal san andreas fault near parkfield 1 the 2003 magnitude 6 5 san simeon and the 2004 magnitude 6 0 parkfield earthquakes induced small but significant static stress changes in the lower crust on the central san andreas fault where recently detected tectonic tremor sources provide new constraints on deep fault creep processes we find that these earthquakes affect tremor rates very differently consistent with their differing transferred static shear stresses the san simeon event appears to have cast a stress shadow north of parkfield where tremor activity was stifled for 3 6 weeks in contrast the 2004 parkfield earthquake dramatically increased tremor activity rates both north and south of parkfield allowing us to track deep postseismic slip following this event rates initially increased by up to two orders of magnitude for the relatively shallow tremor sources closest to the rupture with activity in some sources persisting above background rates for more than a year we also observe strong depth dependence in tremor recurrence patterns with shallower sources generally exhibiting larger less frequent bursts possibly signaling a transition toward steady creep with increasing temperature and depth

the parkfield california earthquake prediction experiment five moderate magnitude 6 earthquakes with similar features have occurred on the parkfield section of the san andreas fault in central california since 1857 the next moderate parkfield earthquake is expected to occur before 1993 the parkfield prediction experiment is designed to monitor the details of the final stages of the earthquake preparation process observations and reports of seismicity and aseismic slip associated with the last moderate parkfield earthquake in 1966 constitute much of the basis of the design of the experiment

stress transferred by the 1995 mw 6 9 kobe japan shock effect on aftershocks and future earthquake probabilities the kobe earthquake struck at the edge of the densely populated osaka kyoto corridor in southwest japan we investigate how the earthquake transferred stress to nearby faults altering their proximity to failure and thus changing earthquake probabilities we find that relative to the pre kobe seismicity kobe aftershocks were concentrated in regions of calculated coulomb stress increase and less common in regions of stress decrease we quantify this relationship by forming the spatial correlation between the seismicity rate change and the coulomb stress change the correlation is significant for stress changes greater than 0 2 1 0 bars 0 02 0 1 mpa and the nonlinear dependence of seismicity rate change on stress change is compatible with a state and rate dependent formulation for earthquake occurrence we extend this analysis to future mainshocks by resolving the stress changes on major faults within 100 km of kobe and calculating the change in probability caused by these stress changes transient effects of the stress changes are incorporated by the state dependent constitutive relation which amplifies the permanent stress changes during the aftershock period earthquake probability framed in this manner is highly time dependent much more so than is assumed in current practice because the probabilities depend on several poorly known parameters of the major faults we estimate uncertainties of the probabilities by monte carlo simulation this enables us to include uncertainties on the elapsed time since the last earthquake the repeat time and its variability and the period of aftershock decay we estimate that a calculated 3 bar 0 3 mpa stress increase on the eastern section of the arima takatsuki tectonic line attl near kyoto causes fivefold increase in the 30 year probability of a subsequent large earthquake near kyoto a 2 bar 0 2 mpa stress decrease on the western section of the attl results in a reduction in probability by a factor of 140 to 2000 the probability of a mw 6 9 earthquake within 50 km of osaka during 1997 2007 is estimated to have risen from 5 6 before the kobe earthquake to 7 11 afterward during 1997 2027 it is estimated to have risen from 14 16 before kobe to 16 22

complex faulting associated with the 22 december 2003 mw 6 5 san simeon california earthquake aftershocks and postseismic surface deformation we use data from two seismic networks and satellite interferometric synthetic aperture radar insar imagery to characterize the 22 december 2003 m w 6 5 san simeon earthquake sequence absolute locations for the mainshock and nearly 10 000 aftershocks were determined using a new three dimensional 3d seismic velocity model relative locations were obtained using double difference the mainshock location found using the 3d velocity model is 35 704 n 121 096 w at a depth of 9 7 0 7 km the aftershocks concentrate at the northwest and southeast parts of the aftershock zone between the mapped traces of the oceanic and nacimiento fault zones the northwest end of the mainshock rupture as defined by the aftershocks projects from the mainshock hypocenter to the surface a few kilometers west of the mapped trace of the oceanic fault near the santa lucia range front and the 5 mm postseismic insar imagery contour the oceanic fault in this area as mapped by hall 1991 is therefore probably a second order synthetic thrust or reverse fault that splays upward from the main seismogenic fault at depth the southeast end of the rupture projects closer to the mapped oceanic fault trace suggesting much of the slip was along this fault or at a minimum is accommodating much of the postseismic deformation insar imagery shows 72 mm of postseismic uplift in the vicinity of maximum coseismic slip in the central section of the rupture and 48 and 45 mm at the northwest and southeast end of the aftershock zone respectively from these observations we model a 30 km long northwest trending northeast dipping mainshock rupture surface called the mainthrust which is likely the oceanic fault at depth a 10 km long southwest dipping backthrust parallel to the mainthrust near the hypocenter several smaller southwest dipping structures in the southeast and perhaps additional northeast dipping or subvertical structures southeast of the mainshock plane discontinuous backthrust features opposite the mainthrust in the southeast part of the aftershock zone may offset the relic nacimiento fault zone at depth the insar data image surface deformation associated with both aseismic slip and aftershock production on the mainthrust and the backthrusts at the northwest and southeast ends of the aftershock zone the well defined mainthrust at the latitude of the epicenter and antithetic backthrust illuminated by the aftershock zone indicate uplift of the santa lucia range as a popup block aftershocks in the southeast part of the zone also indicate a popup block but it is less well defined the absence of backthrust features in the central part of the zone suggests range front uplift by fault propagation folding or backthrusts in the central part were not activated during the mainshock

spatiotemporal evolution of a transient slip event on the san andreas fault near parkfield california 1 in 1993 several baselines of the two color electronic distance meter edm network at parkfield california deviated from their long term rates coincident with anomalous observations from nearby strain meters and a creep meter as well as an increase in microseismicity between october 1992 and december 1994 three m 4 5 earthquakes occurred beneath middle mountain near the hypocenter of the 1934 and 1966 parkfield m6 events we analyzed the two color edm data using a kalman filtering based technique to image the spatiotemporal evolution of slip on the fault at parkfield between the mid 1980s and 2003 this method accounts for localized random walk motion of the geodetic monuments and a prominent seasonal signal that affects many baselines we find that a slip rate increase occurred between january 1993 and july 1996 on the upper 8 km of the fault near middle mountain the peak estimated slip rate during this time was 49 mm yr which exceeds the long term geologic rate of 35 mm yr the slip rate evolution appears episodic with an initial modest increase after the m4 3 earthquake and a much larger jump following the shallower m4 7 event in december 1994 this temporal correlation between inferred slip and seismicity suggests that the moderate earthquakes triggered the aseismic fault slip the edm data cannot resolve whether transient slip propagated across the nucleation zone of the 1934 and 1966 m6 parkfield earthquakes however transient slip and its associated stress release in the hypocentral area of previous parkfield events is consistent with the nucleation of the 2004 m6 parkfield earthquake elsewhere on the fault