surface climate variations over the north atlantic ocean during winter 1900 1989 abstract the low frequency variability of the surface climate over the north atlantic during winter is described using 90 years of weather observations from the comprehensive ocean atmosphere data set results are based on empirical orthogonal function analysis of four components of the climate system sea surface temperature sst air temperature wind and sea level pressure an important mode of variability of the wintertime surface climate over the north atlantic during this century is characterized by a dipole pattern in ssts and surface air temperatures with anomalies of one sign cast of newfoundland and anomalies of the opposite polarity off the southeast coast of the united states wind fluctuations occur locally over the regions of large surface temperature anomalies with stronger than normal winds overlying cooler than normal ssts this mode exhibits variability on quasi decadal and biennial time scales the decadal fluctuations are irregular in length averaging 9 years before 1945 and 1

thermodynamic projection and extrapolation of high variance mineral assemblages a procedure is described whereby the effect of extra components on the plotting positions of minerals in projected phase diagrams may be accounted for rigorously the method employs the equilibrium constraints of the mineral assemblage to extrapolate the compositions of the minerals to where the values of the extra components approach 0 the same procedure may also be used to extrapolate the compositions of natural assemblages over isothermal isobaric composition diagrams or polythermal polybaric diagrams

tectonics and plate tectonics model for the variscan belt of europe abstract a plate tectonics model is presented to explain the tectonometamorphic characteristics of the european variscides after the closing of two oceanic domains by two sided subduction 500 420 ma and obduction 420 380 ma collision of the european and african continental plates occurred we propose that the subsequent complex intracontinental deformation 380 290 ma is the result of a double subduction of the continental lithosphere accompanied by crust mantle decollement this mechanism explains the progressive crustal thickening and migration of the deformation through time from the sutures toward the external parts of the variscan belt accounting for this model and for the relationships between the european variscides and the other paleozoic peri atlantic belts caledonides appalachian mauritanides and morocco we infer the relative positions of africa america and europe between the silurian and the permian

teleconnections in the geopotential height field during the northern hemisphere winter abstract contemporaneous correlations between geopotential heights on a given pressure surface at widely separated points on earth referred to as teleconnections in this paper are studied in an attempt to identify and document recurrent spatial patterns which might be indicative of standing oscillations in the planetary waves during the northern hemisphere winter with time scales on the order of a month or longer a review of existing literature on the subject reveals the existence of at least four such patterns the north atlantic and north pacific oscillations identified by walker and bliss 1932 a zonally symmetric seesaw between sea level pressures in polar and temperature latitudes first noted by lorenz 1951 and what we will refer to as the pacific north american pattern which has been known to operational long range forecasters in this country since the 1950 s a data set consisting of nmc monthly mean sea level pressure and 500 mb height analyses for a 15 year period is used as a basis fo

interdecadal variations of the thermohaline circulation in a coupled ocean atmosphere model abstract a fully coupled ocean atmosphere model is shown to have irregular oscillations of the thermohaline circulation in the north atlantic ocean with a time scale of approximately 50 years the irregular oscillation appears to be driven by density anomalies in the sinking region of the thermohaline circulation approximately 52 n to 72 n combined with much smaller density anomalies of opposite sign in the broad rising region the spatial pattern of see surface temperature anomalies associated with this irregular oscillation bears an encouraging resemblance to a pattern of observed interdecadal variability in the north atlantic the anomalies of sea surface temperature induce model surface air temperature anomalies over the northern north atlantic arctic and northwestern europe

rapid interglacial climate fluctuations driven by north atlantic ocean circulation recent data from the grip ice core1 3 in greenland suggest that the climate of the last eemian interglacial period was much less stable than that of the present interglacial rapid transitions between warm and cold periods were found to occur on timescales of just a few decades the north atlantic climate during the eemian period was also shown to be characterized by three states respectively warmer than similar to and colder than today1 2 recent data from the nearby gisp2 ice core have revealed some discrepancies with these findings which remain to be resolved4 5 here we present simulations using an idealized global ocean model which suggest that the north atlantic ocean has three distinct circulation modes each of which corresponds to a distinct climate state we find that adding a simple random component to the mean freshwater flux which forces circulation can induce rapid transitions between these three modes we suggest that increased variability in the hydrological cycle associated with the warmer eemian climate could have caused transition between these distinct modes in the north atlantic circulation which may in turn account for the apparent rapid variability of the eemian climate

surface deformation of the barren island volcano andaman sea 2007 2017 constrained by insar measurements evidence for shallow magma reservoir and lava field subsidence abstract barren island situated in the andaman sea is the northernmost active volcano of the sunda arc the oldest known eruption of the volcano was during the period 1787 1832 after about 150 years of quiescence volcanic activity resumed in 1991 and continues since then the magmatic plumbing system of this volcano is largely unknown due to lack of geophysical experiments owing to its remote location we report for the first time time series surface deformation measurements of barren island volcano from interferometric synthetic aperture radar insar during epochs 2007 2011 and 2015 2017 line of sight los deformation of 50 mm yr during 2007 2011 at the cinder cone is interpreted as the co eruptive pressure changes associated with the 2008 2010 eruptions bayesian inversion suggests a shallow magma reservoir at a depth of 578 100 300 m below the summit the depth of the magma reservoir is shallower than that of other volcanoes of the sunda arc probably due to the extensional stress regime imposed by the oblique subduction based on the present studies and previous works we propose a plausible source model for barren island volcano we also discuss potential biases in the present source parameter estimation due to the lack of high quality insar data from both ascending and descending directions significant deformation 15 to 150 mm yr observed along the lava delta of barren island volcano for both the epochs are interpreted as post emplacement subsidence of the lava flow further we characterise the lava flow including volcanic deposits by mapping its spatial extent and elevation changes during 1979 2000 and 2000 2017 periods using geodetic measurements

a tectonic model for the metamorphic evolution of the basal gneiss complex western south norway a review of currently available information relevant to the basal gneiss complex bgc of western south norway combined with the authors own observations leads to the following conclusions 1 most of the bgc consists of proterozoic crystalline rocks and probably subordinate lower palaeozoic cover 2 the last major deformation of these rocks was during the caledonian orogeny and involved large scale thrusting recumbent folding and doming the structural development of the bgc is closely tied in with that of the caledonian allochthon 3 the whole eclogite bearing part of the bgc has suffered a high pressure metamorphism with conditions of between 550 c 12 5 kbar sunnfjord and about 750 c 20 kbar more og romsdal at the metamorphic climax 4 this metamorphism was of caledonian age probably rather early in the caledonian tectonic history of the bgc and is considered to have been a rather transient event by setting these conclusions in a framework provided by geophysical evidence for the deep structure of the crust in southern norway we have constructed a geotectonic model to explain the recorded metamorphic history of the bgc it is suggested that considerable crustal thickening was caused by imbrication of the baltic plate margin during continental collision with the greenland plate this resulted in high pressure metamorphism in the resulting nappe stack progradation of the suture caused underthrusting of the baltic foreland below the eclogite bearing terrain causing it to emerge at the earth s surface aided by tectonic stripping and erosion application of isostacy equations to the model shows that eclogites can be formed by in situ metamorphism in crustal rocks and reappear at the land surface above a normal thickness of crust in a single orogenic episode of approximately 65 70 ma duration

sea ice anomalies observed in the greenland and labrador seas during 1901 1984 and their relation to an interdecadal arctic climate cycle two independent ice data sets from the greenland and labrador seas have been analyzed for the purpose of characterizing interannual and decadal time scale sea ice extent anomalies during this century sea ice concentration data for the 1953 1984 period revealed the presence of a large positive anomaly in the greenland sea during the 1960s which coincided with the great salinity anomaly an upper ocean low salinity water mass that was observed to travel cyclonically around the northern north atlantic during 1968 1982 this ice anomaly as well as several smaller ones propagated into the labrador sea and then across to the labrador and east newfoundland coast over a period of 3 to 5 years a complex empirical orthogonal function analysis of the same data also confirmed this propagation phenomenon an inverse relation between sea ice and salinity anomalies in the greenland labrador sea region was also generally found an analysis of spring and summer ice limit data obtained from danish meteorological institute charts for the period 1901 1956 indicated the presence of heavy ice conditions i e positive ice anomalies in the greenland sea during 1902 1920 and in the late 1940s and generally negative ice anomalies during the 1920s and 1930s only limited evidence of the propagation of greenland sea ice anomalies into the labrador sea was observed however probably because the data were from the ice melt seasons on the other hand several large ice anomalies in the greenland sea occurred 2 3 years after large runoffs in the early 1930s and the late 1940s from northern canada into the western arctic ocean similarly a large runoff into the arctic during 1964 1966 preceded the large greenland sea ice anomaly of the 1960s these facts together with recent evidence of climatic jumps in the northern hemisphere tropospheric circulation suggest the existence of an interdecadal self sustained climate cycle in the arctic in the greenland sea this cycle is characterized by a state of large sea ice extent overlying an upper layer of cool relatively fresh water that does not convectively overturn which alternates every 10 15 years with a state of small sea ice extent and relatively warm saline surface water that frequently overturns

stochastic models of the meridional overturning circulation time scales and patterns of variability the global meridional overturning circulation moc varies over a wide range of space and time scales in response to fluctuating weather perturbations that may be modelled as stochastic forcing th

interdecadal variations in north atlantic sea surface temperature and associated atmospheric conditions abstract evidence is presented for a distinct pattern of ocean atmosphere relationship associated with interdecadal variability in the north atlantic region using a century of surface marine observations it is shown that middle and high latitude sea surface temperature sst display a long term fluctuation with negative anomalies before 1920 and during the 1970s and 1980s positive sst conditions prevailed from about 1930 to 1960 the pattern of interdecadal sst variability is constructed by subtracting the average field during 15 cold years from that during a similar interval of warm years the early century warming and the more recent cooling display a similar spatial pattern in both cases the pattern is basin scale and largely of one polarity with maxima in the vicinity of iceland in the labrador sea and northeast of bermuda the corresponding differences in surface atmospheric conditions are determined by averaging and subtracting in the same manner fields of sea level pressure slp and surf

the reemergence of sst anomalies in the north pacific ocean abstract sea surface temperature sst data and two different upper ocean temperature analyses are used to study the winter to winter recurrence of sst anomalies in the north pacific ocean the ssts recur when temperature anomalies that form in the deep ocean mixed layer in late winter early spring are isolated from the atmosphere in the summer seasonal thermocline and then reemerge at the surface when the mixed layer deepens during the following fall winter this reemergence mechanism is evaluated over the basin by correlating the time series of the leading pattern of ocean temperature anomalies in the summer seasonal thermocline 60 85 m in august september with sst anomalies over the course of the year the results indicate that the dominant large scale sst anomaly pattern that forms in the north pacific during late winter with anomalies of one sign in the central pacific and the opposite sign along the coast of north america is sequestered in the seasonal thermocline in summer and returns to the

baroclinic instability an oceanic wavemaker for interdecadal variability numerical simulations of coarse resolution idealized ocean basins under constant surface heat flux are analyzed to show that the interdecadal oscillations that emerge naturally in such configurations are driven by baroclinic instability of the mean state and damped by horizontal diffusion when the surface heat fluxes are diagnosed from a spinup in which surface temperatures are strongly restored to apparent atmospheric temperatures the most unstable regions diagnosed by large downgradient eddy heat fluxes are located in the basin northwest corner where the surface heat losses are largest the long wave limit of the baroclinic instability of idealized mean flows in a three layer model with vertical shears as observed in the gcms demonstrates that growth rates of order one cycle per year can be produced locally large enough to amplify thermal anomalies in the face of lateral diffusion the proposed instability mechanism that favors surface intensified perturbations also explains the lack of oscillations if the restoring to a surface climatology is too strong to assess whether this instability process of oceanic origin is robust enough to cause interdecadal variability of coupled ocean atmosphere models a four box ocean atmosphere model is constructed given the large heat capacity of the ocean as compared to the atmosphere the dynamical system that governs the model evolution is reduced to only two degrees of freedom the oceanic overturning thermohaline circulation and the interior north south temperature gradient the authors show that when the baroclinic instability growth rate exceeds the overall dissipation caused by turbulent eddy diffusion in the atmosphere and ocean and infrared back radiation the dynamical system undergoes a hopf bifurcation and interdecadal oscillations emerge through a limit cycle

delayed advective oscillation of the atlantic thermohaline circulation a simple dynamic model is proposed to illustrate the multidecadal oscillation of the atlantic ocean thermohaline circulation the proposed oscillation relies on alternating actions of positive and negative feedbacks which are operated by a slow adjustment of the ocean circulation and the associated time delay in the advective flux response to a change in meridional density gradient the key element of the oscillation is the time delay which is conceptually related to the basin crossing time of long rossby waves in the highlatitude north atlantic for a sufficiently long time delay the solution becomes unstable in some regions of model parameter space and oscillates with a period of approximately 2 times the delay time

granulite facies metamorphism and retrogressive evolution of the monts du lyonnais metabasites massif central france abstract garnet bearing pyriclasites have been found within the monts du lyonnais formation near st andrela cote in the eastern part of the massif central the rocks appear to have differentiated from a tholeiitic magma of continental affinity and they may be genetically related to quartzofeldspathic granulites considered to be the products of crustal melts by means of electron microprobe analyses the consistent pressure and temperature estimates based essentially on pyroxene garnet equilibria show that the peak of metamorphism was at about 860 c and 10 kbar furthermore this study tends to confirm the affiliation of monts du lyonnais granulites to the early variscan granulite eclogite facies metamorphism which extends from bohemia to spain through central europe this event may be expected in the vicinity of an ancient suture zone where a continental collision followed a subduction

the al 2 o 3 contents of enstatite in equilibrium with garnet in the system mgo al 2 o 3 sio 2 at 15 40 kbar and 900 1 600 c forty six reversed determinations of the al2o3content of enstatite in equilibrium with garnet were made in the p t range 15 40 kbar 900 1 600 c in the mgo al2o3 sio2 system starting materials were mixtures of synthetic pyrope al free enstatite and pyrope enstatite 5 12 al2o3 al2o3 contents in reversal run pairs closely approached common values from both the high and low al sides most experiments were done in a piston cylinder device using a nacl medium some runs at very high temperatures were made in pyrex nacl or pyrex talc assemblies the measured enstatite compositions expressed as mole fractions of mg2 mgal alsi3 o12 x opy en were fitted by a monte carlo method to the equilibrium condition begin gathered delta h 970 0 970 delta s 970 0 hfill mathop smallint limits 1 p delta v 970 0 dp mathop smallint limits 970 t delta s t 0 dt rt ln x opy en 0 hfill end gathered where the best fit parameters of h s and v 1 bar 970 k for the reaction pyrope opy are 2 040 cal mol 2 12 eu and 9 55 cc mol in addition to the determination of al2o3 contents of enstatite the univariant reaction pyrope forsterite enstatite spinel was reversibly located in the range 1 100 1 400 c a best fit line passes through 22 22 5 and 25 kbar at 1 040 1 255 and 1 415 c respectively our results for the univariant reaction are in agreement with previous studies of macgregor 1974 and haselton 1979 however comparison of the experimentally determined curve with thermochemical calculations suggests that there may be a small error in the tabulated h f 970 1 0 value for enstatite a value of 8 32 rather than 8 81 kcal mole charlu et al 1975 is consistent with the present data application of garnet enstatite spinel forsterite equilibria to natural materials is fraught with difficulties the effects of nonternary components are poorly understood and the low solubilities of al2o3 in enstatite under most geologically reasonable conditions make barometric or thermometric calculations highly sensitive more detailed studies including reversed determinations in low friction assemblies are sorely needed before the effects of important diluents such as fe ca and cr can be fully understood

on multidecadal variability of the atlantic meridional overturning circulation in the community climate system model version 3 abstract multidecadal variability of the atlantic meridional overturning circulation moc is investigated diagnostically in the ncar community climate system model version 3 ccsm3 present day simulations using the highest t85 1 resolution version this variability has a 21 yr period and is present in many other ocean fields in the north atlantic in moc the oscillation amplitude is about 4 5 sv 1 sv 106 m3 s 1 corresponding to 20 of the mean maximum moc transport the northward heat transport nht variability has an amplitude of about 0 12 pw representing 10 of the mean maximum nht in sea surface temperature sst and sea surface salinity sss the peak to peak changes can be as large as 6 7 c and 3 psu respectively the labrador sea region is identified as the deep water formation dwf site associated with the moc oscillations in contrast with some previous studies temperature and salinity contributions to the total density in this dwf region are almost equal and in phase the he

a thermodynamic model for subsolidus equilibria in the system caomgoal2o3sio2 this study integrates phase equilibrium and calorimetric data for the following phases in the cao mgo al2o3 sio2 system clinopyroxene orthopyroxene garnet fomente anorthite spinel kyanite sillimanite corundum and quartz the internally consistent data set includes mixing properties for clinopyroxene orthopyroxene and garnet solid solutions and enables calculation of any equilibrium involving the components of the above 10 phases under any desired p t conditions major conclusions of the study apart from the data set are 1 1 spinel appears to have an enthalpy of mg al exchange on the order of 20 kcal or more substantially above the calorimetrically measured value 2 2 caal2sio6 pyroxene has virtually complete al si disorder 3 3 enstatite has an enthalpy of formation from oxides at 1000 k of about 16840 cal mole substantially greater than the calorimetric value of 17620 340 cal 4 4 anorthite has about 0 6 cal k entropy of al si disorder 5 5 cmas garnets of between pyrope100 and pyrope80grossular20 composition have almost zero excess entropy 6 6 nonstoichiometry in clinopyroxene has a moderate but predictable influence on reaction boundaries in sio2 saturated compositions

decadal variability in an idealized ocean model and its sensitivity to surface boundary conditions abstract variability in a three dimensional ocean model of idealized geometry is analyzed the variability is induced in the model by adding a stochastic component to the surface buoyancy forcing the influence of the surface thermal forcing on the model variability is investigated under conditions in which the surface freshwater flux is specified the thermal boundary conditions that have been considered include restoring boundary conditions with different restoring times fixed surface heat flux and boundary conditions derived by assuming an energy balance model for the atmosphere it is found that the ocean model response varies considerably with the thermal boundary conditions used given the specific ratio of thermal to haline forcing chosen for these calculations a behavior characterized by sudden transitions between states of strong overturning and states of much weaker overturning dominates the model s response when a strong restoring is used while quasi regular oscillations at a period of appr

rock mechanics observations pertinent to the rheology of the continental lithosphere and the localization of strain along shear zones emphasized in this paper are the deformation processes and rheologies of rocks at high temperatures and high effective pressures conditions that are presumably appropriate to the lower crust and upper mantle in continental collision zones much recent progress has been made in understanding the flexure of the oceanic lithosphere using rock mechanics based yield criteria for the inelastic deformations at the top and base at mid plate depths stresses are likely to be supported elastically because bending strains and elastic stresses are low the collisional tectonic regime however is far more complex because very large permanent strains are sustained at mid plate depths and this requires us to include the broad transition between brittle and ductile flow moreover important changes in the ductile flow mechanisms occur at the intermediate temperatures found at mid plate depths two specific contributions of laboratory rock rheology research are considered in this paper first the high temperature steady state flow mechanisms and rheology of mafic and ultramafic rocks are reviewed with special emphasis on olivine and crystalline rocks rock strength decreases very markedly with increases in temperature and it is the onset of flow by high temperature ductile mechanisms that defines the base of the lithosphere the thickness of the continental lithosphere can therefore be defined by the depth to a particular isotherm tc above which at geologic strain rates the high temperature ductile strength falls below some arbitrary strength isobar e g 100 mpa for olivine tc is about 700 800 c but for other crustal silicates tc may be as low as 400 600 c suggesting that substantial decoupling may take place within thick continental crust and that strength may increase with depth at the moho as suggested by a number of workers on independent grounds put another way the moho is a rheological discontinuity a second class of laboratory observations pertains to the general phenomenon of ductile faulting in which ductile strains are localized into shear zones ductile faults have been produced in experiments of five different rock types and is generally expressed as strain softening in constant strain rate tests or as an accelerating creep rate stage at constant differential stress a number of physical mechanisms have been identified that may be responsible for ductile faulting including the onset of dynamic recrystallization phase changes hydrothermal alteration and hydrolytic weakening microscopic evidence for these processes as well as larger scale geological and geophysical observations suggest that ductile faulting in the middle to lower crust and upper mantle may greatly influence the distribution and magnitudes of differential stresses and the style of deformation in the overlying upper continental lithosphere

crust mantle relationships in the french variscan chain the example of the southern monts du lyonnais unit eastern french massif central garnet lherzolite from the lyonnais area eastern french massif central occurs as several lenses elongated within the regional foliation of garnet biotite sillimanite gneisses within the peridotites a mylonitic foliation can be observed which clearly is oblique to the regional foliation of the surrounding gneisses petrological and thermobarometric studies emphasize a tectonometamorphic re equilibration for both crustal and mantle rocks characterized by a prograde metamorphic stage followed by retrograde evolution during the burial stage interpreted as lithospheric subduction the peridotites underwent their mylonitic deformation under high pressure conditions 23 30 kbar in contrast the paragneisses have suffered their deformation during the retromorphic evolution under mesozonal conditions 6 8 kbar 700 c our thermobarometric investigations allow us to interpret the granulitic ultramafic association from the monts du lyonnais area as a lithospheric section buried into a palaeozoic subduction zone laminated during continental collision and uplifted by erosion processes

experimental phase relations of hydrous peridotites modelled in the system h 2 o cao mgo al 2 o 3 sio 2 the hydration of peridotites modelled by the system h2o cao mgo al2o3 sio2 has been treated theoretically after the method of schreinemakers and has been investigated experimentally in the temperature range 700 900 c and in the pressure range of 8 14 kbar in the presence of excess forsterite and water the garnet to spinel peridotite transition boundary intersects the chlorite dehydration boundary at an invariant point situated at 865 5 c and 15 2 0 3 kbar at lower pressures a model spinel lherzolite hydrates to both chlorite and amphibole bearing assemblages at an invariant point located at 825 10 c and 9 3 0 5 kbar at even lower pressures the spinel to plagioclase peridotite transition boundary intersects the dehydration curve for amphibole forsterite at an invariant point estimated to lie at 855 10 c and 6 5 0 5 kbar both chlorite and amphibole were characterized along their respective dehydration curves chlorite was found to shift continuously from clinochlore with increasing temperature to more aluminous compositions amphibole was found to be tremolitic with a maximmum of 6 wt al2o3 the experimentally determined curves in this study were combined with the determined or estimated stability curves for hydrous melting plagioclase talc anthophyllite and antigorite to obtain a petrogenetic grid applicable to peridotites modelled by the system h2o cao mgo al2o3 sio2 that covers a wide range of geological conditions direct applications of this grid although quite limited can be made for ultramafic assemblages that have been extensively re equilibrated at greenschist to amphibolite facies metamorphism and for some highgrade ultramafic assemblages that display clear signs of retrogressive metamorphism

deep crustal extensional faulting in the ivrea zone of northern italy abstract the ivrea zone in northern italy consists of amphibolite and granulite facies metasedimentary metabasic and ultrabasic rocks and is thought to represent a section through the deep continental crust detailed mapping of the high grade part of this zone has revealed a series of high temperature shear zones which after the effects of later low temperature faulting and folding have been removed appears to accommodate extension of the sequence the shear zones formed at temperatures similar to those at which thermal equilibration occurred in the host rocks and locally show evidence for development under prograde conditions these observations fit well with thermal effects calculated from a simple heat flow model for extensional faulting in this model the effects of shear heating and displacement of cool hanging wall rocks against hotter footwall rocks are calculated these observations indicate that faulting as a mode of failure may be important during extension of the lower continental crust especially when basic rocks are the dominant components of the rock pile a restored section through the extended lower crust as observed in the ivrea zone is presented and the extent to which the features observed are able to explain seismic reflectivity of the lower crust is discussed

the great salinity anomaly in the northern north atlantic 1968 1982 the widespread freshening of the upper 500 800m layer of the northern north atlantic which this paper describes represents one of the most persistent and extreme variations in global ocean climate yet observed in this century though a range of explanations have been advanced to explain this event including in situ changes in the surface moisture flux this paper describes the great salinity anomaly as largely though not entirely an advective event traceable around the atlantic subpolar gyre for over 14 years from its origins north of iceland in the mid to late 1960s until its return to the greenland sea in 1981 1982 the overall propagation speed around this subpolar gyre is estimated at about 3cm s 1 of the total salt deficit associated with the anomaly as it passed south along the labrador coast in 1971 1973 about 72 109 tonnes a deficit equivalent to about two thirds of this figure 47 109 tonnes ultimately passed through the faroe shetland channel to the barents sea arctic ocean and greenland sea during the mid 1970s possible effects on deep water formation and on the representativeness of historical section data are discussed

variability on the century time scale and regime changes in a stochastically forced zonally averaged ocean atmosphere model the response of a zonally averaged climate model of the atmosphere ocean system to a stochastic freshwater forcing depends on its strength three regimes are found for small perturbations of the system the ocean responds with irregular oscillations around a state which is characterized by a strong atlantic overturning circulation for intermediate to large amplitude forcing the thermohaline circulation in the atlantic ocean exhibits pronounced regular overturning flushing events the third regime is a complete collapse of the atlantic overturning transitions can be induced between the three regimes while for moderate values the transitions are reversible for large forcing amplitudes the atlantic overturning circulation collapses irreversibly to the third regime

ocean gyre circulation changes associated with the north atlantic oscillation abstract observational evidence is presented for interannual to interdecadal variability in the intensity of the north atlantic gyre circulation related to the atmospheric north atlantic oscillation nao patterns a two point baroclinic pressure difference between the subtropical and subpolar gyre centers an oceanic analogue to the much used sea level pressure slp based atmospheric nao indices is constructed from time series of potential energy anomaly pea derived from hydrographic measurements in the labrador basin and at station s near bermuda representing the upper 2000 db eastward baroclinic mass transport between the two centers the transport index indicates a gulf stream and north atlantic current that gradually weakened during the low nao period of the 1960s and then intensified in the subsequent 25 years of persistently high nao to a record peak in the 1990s the peak to peak amplitude difference was 15 20 megatons per second mt s 1 with a 43 yr mean of about 60 mt s 1 a change of 25 33