empirical relationships among seismic velocity effective pressure porosity and clay content in sandstone we use a multivariate analysis to investigate the influence of effective pressure pe porosity and clay content c on the compressional velocity vp and shear velocity vs of sandstones laboratory measurements on water saturated samples of 64 different sandstones provide a large data set that was analyzed statistically for each sample relationships between effective pressure and vp and vs have been determined all samples were well fit by relationships that have an exponential increase in velocity at low pe tapering to a linear increase with pe for pe greater than 0 2 kbar there are differences in the pressure dependences of velocity for different rocks particularly at very low pressures however the differences cannot be attributed to or c for the combined set of measurements from all samples the best fitting formulations are vp 5 77 6 94 1 73c 0 446 pe e 16 7pe and vs 3 70 4 94 1 57c 0 361 pe e 16 7pe while this is admittedly a very simplified parameterization it is remarkable how well

interplate coupling off northeastern japan before the 2011 tohoku oki earthquake inferred from seafloor geodetic data 1 seafloor crustal movements off miyagi and fukushima prefectures northeastern japan observed for about 9 years before the 2011 tohoku oki earthquake m9 0 with the gps acoustic geodetic technique revealed the spatiotemporal variation of interplate coupling in this region off miyagi prefecture temporal variations of the crustal movements are characterized as a strain accumulation release process in relation to the 2005 miyagi oki earthquake m7 2 the intraplate velocity since december 2006 when the strain accumulation seemed to have restarted is 4 5 cm yr relative to the north american plate which is significantly lower than that before the 2005 event 6 7 cm yr this suggests that interplate coupling off miyagi prefecture since around 2007 is weaker than that before the 2005 event on the other hand off fukushima prefecture a westward crustal movement at a constant rate of about 2 cm yr relative to the north american plate has been observed for the interseismic period from 2002 to 2008 the interplate coupling off fukushima prefecture is significantly weak compared with that off miyagi prefecture this is consistent with the observed coseismic displacements associated with the 2011 event which are much smaller off fukushima prefecture than off miyagi prefecture

the seismic cycle in the area of the 2011 mw9 0 tohoku oki earthquake we model seismic and aseismic slip on the japan megathrust in the area of the m w9 0 2011 tohoku oki earthquake based on daily time series from 400 gps stations of the geonet network and campaign measurements of six sea floor displacements the coseismic and postseismic slip distributions are inverted simultaneously using principal component analysis based inversion method pcaim exploring a wide range of boundary conditions and regularization constraints we found the coseismic slip distribution to be quite compact with a peak slip between 30 and 50 m near the trench our model shows deep afterslip fringing the downdip edge of the coseismic rupture but also a dominant zone of shallow afterslip afterslip over the first 279 days following the main shock represents about 40 of the coseismic moment we compare the coseismic and postseismic models with an interseismic coupling model derived from inland and sea bottom measurements determined in a self consistent manner assuming that seismic and aseismic slip had to match the long term slip rate along the megathrust the recurrence time of m w9 0 earthquakes is estimated to 100 300 years while historical and paleotsunami records suggest a return period more of the order of 1000 years the discrepancy is smaller if the shallower portion of the megathrust is assumed to produce both aseismic slip as the afterslip model suggests and seismic slip during occasional large tsunamigenic earthquakes

3d modeling of the cycle of a great tohoku oki earthquake considering frictional behavior at low to high slip velocities 1 we perform 3d quasi dynamic modeling of the cycle of a megathrust earthquake in the offshore tohoku region japan using a rate and state dependent friction law with two state variables that exhibits strong velocity weakening at high slip velocities we set several asperities where velocity weakening occurs at low to intermediate slip velocities outside of the asperities velocity strengthening occurs at low to intermediate slip velocities at high slip velocities strong velocity weakening with large displacements occurs both within and outside of the asperities the rupture of asperities occurs at intervals of several tens of years whereas megathrust events occur at much longer intervals several hundred years megathrust slips occur even in regions where velocity strengthening occurs at low to intermediate slip velocities but where velocity weakening is dominant at high slip velocities the proposed model explains that megathrust earthquakes occur in the same subduction zone as large thrust earthquakes

dynamics of a velocity strengthening fault region implications for slow earthquakes and postseismic slip we consider the effect of permanent stress changes on a velocity strengthening rate and state fault through numerical simulations and analytical results on 1 d 2 d and 3 d models we show that slip transients can be triggered by perturbations of size roughly larger than lb gdc b where g is the shear modulus dc and b are the characteristic slip distance and the coefficient of the evolution effect of rate and state friction respectively and is the effective normal stress perturbations that increase the coulomb stress lead to the strongest transients but creep bursts can also be triggered by perturbations that decrease the coulomb stress in the latter case peak slip velocity is attained long after the perturbation so that it may be difficult in practice to identify their origin the evolution of slip in a creep transient shares many features with the nucleation process of a rate and state weakening fault slip initially localizes over a region of size not smaller than lb and then accelerates transiently and finally expands as a quasi static propagating crack the characteristic size lb implies a constraint on the grid resolution of numerical models even on strengthening faults that is more stringent than classical criteria in the transition zone between the velocity weakening and strengthening regions the peak slip velocity may be arbitrarily large and may approach seismic slip velocities postseismic slip may represent the response of the creeping parts of the fault to a stress perturbation of large scale comparable to the extent of the main shock rupture and high amplitude while slow earthquakes may represent the response of the creeping zones to a more localized stress perturbation our results indicate that superficial afterslip observed at usually seismogenic depths is governed by a rate strengthening rheology and is not likely to correspond to stable weakening zones the predictions of the full rate and state framework reduce to a pure velocity strengthening law on a timescale longer than the duration of the acceleration transient only when the triggering perturbation extends over length scales much larger than lb

episodic slow slip events accompanied by non volcanic tremors in southwest japan subduction zone 1 episodic slow slip events have been recognized by means of tilt changes in the western shikoku area southwest japan the crustal tilt deformation was observed repeatedly with a recurrence interval of approximately six months coincident with the occurrences of major non volcanic deep tremor activities in this area observed tilt changes can be explained by slow slip events occurring around the source area of tremors in each episode the source of the slow slip event and tremor migrate simultaneously the spatial and temporal coincidence of tremors and slow slip events indicates that they both may be coupling phenomena reflecting the stress accumulation process at the subducting plate

propagation of slow slip leading up to the 2011 mw 9 0 tohoku oki earthquake many large earthquakes are preceded by one or more foreshocks but it is unclear how these foreshocks relate to the nucleation process of the mainshock on the basis of an earthquake catalog created using a waveform correlation technique we identified two distinct sequences of foreshocks migrating at rates of 2 to 10 kilometers per day along the trench axis toward the epicenter of the 2011 moment magnitude mw 9 0 tohoku oki earthquake in japan the time history of quasi static slip along the plate interface based on small repeating earthquakes that were part of the migrating seismicity suggests that two sequences involved slow slip transients propagating toward the initial rupture point the second sequence which involved large slip rates may have caused substantial stress loading prompting the unstable dynamic rupture of the mainshock

global positioning system gps and gps acoustic observations insight into slip along the subduction zones around japan the global positioning system gps is one of the most powerful tools available for observation of earth s surface deformation in particular coseismic postseismic slow transient and interseismic deformation have all been observed globally by gps over the past two decades especially in subduction zones moreover gps acoustic techniques have been developed for practical use in the past decade allowing observation of offshore deformation immediately above slip regions here we describe the application of gps and gps acoustic observations to the detection of deformation due to plate boundary slip for interplate earthquakes as well as afterslip and slow slip events in subduction zones around japan where geodetic data coverage is particularly dense the data demonstrate temporally variable strain accumulation in the source region of the 2011 mw 9 0 tohoku oki earthquake and observation of the huge slip of the tohoku oki earthquake near the trench using gps acoustic methods has considerably advanced o

rupture process of the 2010 mw 7 8 mentawai tsunami earthquake from joint inversion of near field hr gps and teleseismic body wave recordings constrained by tsunami observations the 25 october 2010 mentawai tsunami earthquake mw 7 8 ruptured the shallow portion of the sunda megathrust seaward of the mentawai islands offshore of sumatra indonesia generating a strong tsunami that took 509 lives the rupture zone was updip of those of the 12 september 2007 mw 8 5 and 7 9 underthrusting earthquakes high rate 1 s sampling gps instruments of the sumatra gps array network deployed on the mentawai islands and sumatra mainland recorded time varying and static ground displacements at epicentral distances from 49 to 322 km azimuthally distributed tsunami recordings from two deepwater sensors and two tide gauges that have local high resolution bathymetric information provide additional constraints on the source process finite fault rupture models obtained by joint inversion of the high rate hr gps time series and numerous teleseismic broadband p and s wave seismograms together with iterative forward modeling of the tsunami recordings indicate rupture propagation 50 km up dip and 100 km northwest along strike from the hypocenter with a rupture velocity of 1 8 km s subregions with large slip extend from 7 to 10 km depth 80 km northwest from the hypocenter with a maximum slip of 8 m and from 5 km depth to beneath thin horizontal sedimentary layers beyond the prism deformation front for 100 km along strike with a localized region having 15 m of slip the seismic moment is 7 2 1020 n m the rupture model indicates that local heterogeneities in the shallow megathrust can accumulate strain that allows some regions near the toe of accretionary prisms to fail in tsunami earthquakes

interseismic coupling and asperity distribution along the kamchatka subduction zone 1 gps measurements of interseismic horizontal surface velocities reveal the degree of kinematic coupling of the plate boundary thrust along the kamchatka subduction zone from about 51 degrees to 57 degrees n latitude inversions for the distribution of aseismic slip rate along the similar to 15 degrees nw dipping underthrust suggest a nonslipping plate interface in southern kamchatka above similar to 50 km depth along the segment that ruptured in the m w 9 1952 earthquake north of similar to 53 degrees n the subduction interface experiences significant aseismic slip consistent with the lower seismic moment release in m 8 5 earthquakes along this portion of the subduction zone the gps velocities are consistent with a boundary element forward model in which historic earthquake rupture zones are represented as locked asperities surrounded by a zero shear stress subduction interface loaded by plate convergence models in which the complete rupture zones of historic earthquakes are considered locked greatly overpredict the degree of kinematic coupling reducing the area of the locked model asperities to the central 25 area of historic rupture zones fits the data well suggesting that large earthquakes involve small fully locked core asperities surrounded by conditionally stable portions of the plate interface areas of low aseismic slip rate appear to be roughly correlated with areas of low isostatic gravity anomalies over offshore forearc basins while less coupled portions of the kamchatka subduction zone coincide with high gravity anomalies offshore of two peninsulas possibly related to the subduction of the emperor meji seamount chain and the kruzenstern fracture zone

detection of a locked zone at depth on the parkfield california segment of the san andreas fault the parkfield california segment of the san andreas fault is transitional in character between the creeping segment of the fault to the northwest and the locked carrizo plain segment to the southeast the rate of shallow fault slip decreases from 25 30 mm yr northwest of the epicenter of the 1966 parkfield earthquake to zero at the southeastern end of the 1966 rupture zone data from a network of trilateration lines spanning the san andreas fault near parkfield and extending to the pacific coast near san luis obispo shed light on the rate of fault slip at depth since the 1966 earthquake in this study average rates of line length change and shallow fault slip were inverted to determine the slip rate at depth on the parkfield fault segment the fault is taken to be a vertical surface with unknown distribution of strike slip displacement in an elastic half space a striking result of the inversions is that all solutions providing acceptable fits to the data exhibit a locked zone essentially coincident with the rupture surface of the 1966 parkfield earthquake the data require that the locked zone extend nearly as far north as the 1966 epicenter however the vertical extent of the locked zone is not well resolved over much of the parkfield segment the fault is slipping faster at the earth s surface than it is at seismogenic depths in order to fit the trilateration measurements it is necessary to include a component of contraction normal to the trend of the san andreas the inversion results suggest a spatially uniform normal strain of 0 06 strain yr the orientation of the contraction is compatible with geologic and seismic evidence of active folding and reverse faulting in the region the magnitude of the contraction is consistent with convergence rates inferred from global plate motion models

two types of antigorite serpentinite controlling heterogeneous slow slip behaviours of slab mantle interface abstract it is known that plate boundaries in subduction zones show heterogeneous slip nature with strongly coupled seismogenic zones and various types of episodic tremor and slip ets zones in order to examine the petrological controls on the large scale structure we compared recent geophysical observations in the shikoku area southwest japan with petrological models of the hanging wall mantle wedge as a result we found a close relationship between mineral assemblages in the mantle wedge and the characteristics of slow slip behaviour recorded in the shikoku area short term etss take place in the antigorite olivine stability field and silent long term slow slip events sses take place in the antigorite brucite stability field based on observations of natural antigorite serpentinites we propose a model that the dominant serpentinization reaction in the mantle wedge changes with increasing depth resulting in variable extents of pore fluid pressures along slip planes the serpentinization reaction in the antigorite brucite stability field olivine h 2 o antigorite brucite proceeds at the expense of water this is consistent with moderately elevated pore pressures inferred for long term sses the existence of weak brucite enhances the development of shear zones oblique to the main foliation the resultant anastomosing network provides fluid pathways that may help reduce pore pressures on slip planes in contrast progress of the serpentinization reaction in the antigorite olivine stability field olivine h 2 o sio 2 antigorite results in a large amount of residual water that contributes to further increase pore fluid pressures on slip planes of short term sses our results imply that understanding of serpentinization reactions and their contributions to fluid networks in mantle wedge is important in constructing quantitative 3 d models for strain evolutions along plate boundaries

a slow thrust slip event following the two 1996 hyuganada earthquakes beneath the bungo channel southwest japan we report a slow thrust slip event that occurred beneath the bungo channel region southwestern japan on oct and dec 1996 two hyuganada earthquakes both mw 6 7 followed by afterslips occurred in addition a crustal movement characterized by an extremely slow rise was observed around the bungo channel about 200 km north from the epicenters and continued for about 300 days long assuming a slow slip on the plate boundary we estimate its duration and surface displacements from gps time series data by curve fitting and then determine the fault slip distribution we found that a slow slip without any earthquakes continued for nearly one year and released the seismic moment comparable to that of the hyuganada earthquakes occurrence of the slow thrust slip event suggests that this kind of event may be a characteristic mode of stress release at a transition region of interplate coupling

numerical modeling of long term earthquake sequences on the ne japan megathrust comparison with observations and implications for fault friction we use numerical modeling to investigate fault properties that explain key features of the 2011 mw 9 0 tohoku oki earthquake as well as the overall regional behavior of the ne japan megathrust in particular we study the possibility that slip near the trench resulted from thermal pressurization on a shallow patch of the megathrust and investigate whether low velocity friction on that patch is rate strengthening or rate weakening our models also contain a deeper rate weakening patch not prone to efficient thermal pressurization to account for the moderate sized interplate seismicity we produce earthquake sequences and aseismic slip in our models using 2d dynamic simulations that incorporate shear induced temperature variations and the associated change in pore fluid pressure to capture thermal pressurization we find that all our models can reproduce more frequent deeper moderate mw 7 5 events and less frequent larger events with substantial slip at shallow depth as observed along the fukushima miyagi segment of the japan megathrust however only the scenario with a sufficiently rate strengthening patch can match the thousand year recurrence time of tohoku oki like earthquakes suggested by the historical and geological record due to co existence of seismic and aseismic slip at the shallow depths this scenario also reproduces other characteristics of the tohoku oki earthquake the trenchward skewed distribution of slip the backward re rupture of the deeper patch as well as the weaker radiation at high frequency of the shallower portion of the rupture in spite of its larger slip

gradual unlocking of plate boundary controlled initiation of the 2014 iquique earthquake a long foreshock series unlocked the south american plate boundary until eventually initiating the m 8 1 iquique chile earthquake two groups publishing in this issue of nature analyse the seismic context of the iquique earthquake that occurred off the coast of northern chile on 1 april 2014 in a seismic zone that had been quiescent since a significant event in 1877 gavin hayes et al identify areas of remaining or elevated earthquake hazard along the megathrust fault in the region and conclude that the 2014 iquique event was not the earthquake that had been anticipated given that significant sections of the northern chile subduction zone have not ruptured in almost 150 years they suggest that it is likely that future megathrust earthquakes will occur south and potentially north of the 2014 iquique sequence bernd schurr et al show that the april 2014 earthquake broke a central fraction of the northern chile seismic gap the last major segment of the south american plate boundary that had yet to rupture in the past century from july 2013 up to the april earthquake they identify three seismic clusters along this part of the plate boundary each lasting a few weeks with earthquakes of increasing peak magnitudes they conclude that these seismic clusters and their slip transients reflect a gradual weakening of the central part of the seismic gap that was instrumental in initiating the final failure on 1 april 2014 northern chile was struck by a magnitude 8 1 earthquake following a protracted series of foreshocks the integrated plate boundary observatory chile monitored the entire sequence of events providing unprecedented resolution of the build up to the main event and its rupture evolution here we show that the iquique earthquake broke a central fraction of the so called northern chile seismic gap the last major segment of the south american plate boundary that had not ruptured in the past century1 2 since july 2013 three seismic clusters each lasting a few weeks hit this part of the plate boundary with earthquakes of increasing peak magnitudes starting with the second cluster geodetic observations show surface displacements that can be associated with slip on the plate interface these seismic clusters and their slip transients occupied a part of the plate interface that was transitional between a fully locked and a creeping portion leading up to this earthquake the b value of the foreshocks gradually decreased during the years before the earthquake reversing its trend a few days before the iquique earthquake the mainshock finally nucleated at the northern end of the foreshock area which skirted a locked patch and ruptured mainly downdip towards higher locking peak slip was attained immediately downdip of the foreshock region and at the margin of the locked patch we conclude that gradual weakening of the central part of the seismic gap accentuated by the foreshock activity in a zone of intermediate seismic coupling was instrumental in causing final failure distinguishing the iquique earthquake from most great earthquakes finally only one third of the gap was broken and the remaining locked segments now pose a significant increased seismic hazard with the potential to host an earthquake with a magnitude of 8 5

high velocity frictional properties of clay rich fault gouge in a megasplay fault zone nankai subduction zone 1 we conducted high velocity friction experiments on clay rich fault gouge taken from the megasplay fault zone in the nankai subduction zone under dry and wet conditions in the dry tests dehydration of clay minerals occurred by frictional heating and slip weakening is related to thermal pressurization associated with water vaporization resulting in a random distribution of clay clast aggregates in the gouge matrix in the wet tests slip weakening is caused by pore fluid pressurization via shear enhanced compaction and frictional heating and there is a very weak dependence of the steady state shear stress on the normal stress the resulting microstructure reflects the grain size segregation in a granular fluid shear flow at high shear rates these results suggest that earthquake rupture propagates easily through clay rich fault gouge by high velocity weakening potentially leaving the microstructures resulting from the frictional heating or the flow sorting at high slip rates

naturally precipitating vaterite μ caco3 spheres unusual carbonates formed in an extreme environment vaterite a rare hexagonal caco3 polymorph was identified in precipitates forming at a supra glacial sulfur spring in borup fiord pass northern ellesmere island canadian high arctic vaterite occurs in a precipitate mound along with calcite gypsum and native sulfur the unusual conditions of the site including an extremely cold climate supersaturated alkaline waters and the presence of gypsum mimics conditions used to grow vaterite in laboratory experiments stable isotope data suggest that vaterite may preferentially form during colder periods of the year vaterite found at the site is characterized by 2 to 10 m rounded to spherical shaped particles comprising smaller 0 5 to 2 m spheres as both individuals and in chainlike structures the spherical habit of vaterite resembles carbonate structures that have been interpreted to be organic however 13 c values are indicative of an inorganic origin the thick permafrost and the extreme cold and dry environment make this site a good terrestrial analog for carbonate precipitates that might be expected at potential deposits associated with water discharge on other planetary bodies copyright 2003 elsevier science ltd

combining gps and repeating earthquakes for a high resolution analysis of subduction zone coupling abstract increasingly complex spatiotemporal patterns of subduction zone coupling are being revealed by geodetic and seismic observations understanding the mechanisms which control it is useful for improving seismic hazard assessments gps and characteristically repeating earthquakes cres are complementary datasets for monitoring aseismic slip here both of them are combined to estimate the rate and distribution of creep on the northeast japan subduction zone between 21 march 1996 and 24 september 2003 we find that the majority of the upper part at 0 30 km depth remains locked there are three regions creeping at 7 8 cm yr distributed along strike at 40 70 km depth we observe that these creeping regions occur in areas of low effective pressure and reduced porosity which are inferred from vp and vs velocities moreover an area of high clay content and high effective pressure coincides with the rupture area of the tohoku oki earthquake we discuss these results in the context of potential mechanisms governing creep in northeast japan our results highlight the benefits of combining gps and cres for advancing our understanding of the seismic cycle in subduction zones

high pore fluid pressure may cause silent slip in the nankai trough silent slip events have been detected at several subduction zones but the cause of these events is unknown using seismic imaging we detected a cause of the tokai silent slip which occurred at a presumed fault zone of a great earthquake the seismic image that we obtained shows a zone of high pore fluid pressure in the subducted oceanic crust located down dip of a subducted ridge we propose that these structures effectively extend a region of conditionally stable slips and consequently generate the silent slip

spatial correlation of interseismic coupling and coseismic rupture extent of the 2011 mw 9 0 tohoku oki earthquake 1 imaging the extent to which the rupture areas of great earthquakes coincide with regions of pre seismic interplate coupling is central to understanding patterns of strain accumulation and release through the earthquake cycle both geodetic and seismic estimates of the coseismic rupture extent for the march 11 2011 mw 8 9 9 0 earthquake tohoku oki earthquake may be spatially correlated 0 26 0 05 to 0 82 0 05 with a region estimated to be partially to fully coupled in the interseismic period preceding the earthquake though there is substantial variation in the estimated distribution and magnitude of coseismic slip the 400 km long region estimated to have slipped 4 m corresponds to an area of the subduction zone interface that was coupled at 30 of long term plate convergence rate with peak slip near a region coupled 80 the northern termination of rupture is collocated with a region of relatively low 20 interseismic coupling near the epicenter of the 1994 mw 7 6 sanriku oki earthquake and near a region of potential long term low coupling or ongoing slow slip slip on the subduction interface beneath the coastline 40 50 km depth is best constrained by the land based gps data and least constrained on the shallowest portion of the plate interface due to the 230 km distance between geodetic observations and the japan trench

central cascadia subduction zone creep central cascadia between 43 n and 46 n has reduced interseismic uplift observed in geodetic data and coseismic subsidence seen in multiple thrust earthquakes suggesting elevated persistent fault creep in this section of the subduction zone we estimate subduction thrust decade scale locking and crustal block rotations from three component continuous global positioning system gps time series from 1997 to 2013 as well as 80 year tide gauge and leveling derived uplift rates geodetic observations indicate coastal central oregon is rising at a slower rate than coastal washington southern oregon and northern california modeled locking distributions suggest a wide locking transition zone that extends inland under central oregon paleoseismic records of multiple great earthquakes along cascadia indicate less subsidence in central oregon the cascade thrust under central oregon may be partially creeping for at least 6500 years the length of the paleoseismic record reducing interseismic uplift and resulting in reduced coseismic subsidence large accretions of eocene age basalt siletzia terrane between 43 n and 46 n may be less permeable compared to surrounding terranes potentially increasing pore fluid pressures along the fault interface resulting in a wide zone of persistent fault creep in a separate inversion three component gps time series from 1 july 2005 to 1 january 2011 are used to estimate upper plate deformation locking between slow slip events sses slip from 16 sses and an earthquake mechanism cumulative sses and tectonic tremor are weakest between 43 n and 46 n where partial fault creep is increased and siletzia terrane is thick suggesting that surrounding rock properties may influence the mode of slip

space geodetic observation of deep basal subduction erosion in northeastern japan abstract observation of tectonic erosion von huene and scholl rev geophys 29 1991 279 316 in a subduction zone has been difficult as it leaves little geological and geophysical evidence three dimensional velocity profiles of crustal movement obtained by global positioning system across ne and sw japan agree well with those predicted by the elastic loading of the subducting slabs however vertical velocities in the ne japan forearc show significant negative deviation relative subsidence this may indicate loss of material at the plate interface that can be attributed to the erosion of the upper plate by the underthrusting slab basal subduction erosion the estimated rate 15 mm yr down to a slab depth of 90 km is somewhat faster than the geological average the erosion speed may be variable being controlled by the surface roughness of subducting slabs

structure and composition of the plate boundary slip zone for the 2011 tohoku oki earthquake the mechanics of great subduction earthquakes are influenced by the frictional properties structure and composition of the plate boundary fault we present observations of the structure and composition of the shallow source fault of the 2011 tohoku oki earthquake and tsunami from boreholes drilled by the integrated ocean drilling program expedition 343 and 343t logging while drilling and core sample observations show a single major plate boundary fault accommodated the large slip of the tohoku oki earthquake rupture as well as nearly all the cumulative interplate motion at the drill site the localization of deformation onto a limited thickness less than 5 meters of pelagic clay is the defining characteristic of the shallow earthquake fault suggesting that the pelagic clay may be a regionally important control on tsunamigenic earthquakes

high pressure creep of serpentine interseismic deformation and initiation of subduction the supposed low viscosity of serpentine may strongly influence subduction zone dynamics at all time scales but until now its role could not be quantified because measurements relevant to intermediate depth settings were lacking deformation experiments on the serpentine antigorite at high pressures and temperatures 1 to 4 gigapascals 200 to 500 c showed that the viscosity of serpentine is much lower than that of the major mantle forming minerals regardless of the temperature low viscosity serpentinized mantle at the slab surface can localize deformation impede stress buildup and limit the downdip propagation of large earthquakes at subduction zones antigorite enables viscous relaxation with characteristic times comparable to those of long term postseismic deformations after large earthquakes and slow earthquakes antigorite viscosity is sufficiently low to make serpentinized faults in the oceanic lithosphere a site for subduction initiation

using cluster analysis to organize and explore regional gps velocities 1 cluster analysis offers a simple visual exploratory tool for the initial investigation of regional global positioning system gps velocity observations which are providing increasingly precise mappings of actively deforming continental lithosphere the deformation fields from dense regional gps networks can often be concisely described in terms of relatively coherent blocks bounded by active faults although the choice of blocks their number and size can be subjective and is often guided by the distribution of known faults to illustrate our method we apply cluster analysis to gps velocities from the san francisco bay region california to search for spatially coherent patterns of deformation including evidence of block like behavior the clustering process identifies four robust groupings of velocities that we identify with four crustal blocks although the analysis uses no prior geologic information other than the gps velocities the cluster block boundaries track three major faults both locked and creeping

stable creeping fault segments can become destructive as a result of dynamic weakening faults in earth s crust accommodate slow relative motion between tectonic plates through either similarly slow slip or fast seismic wave producing rupture events perceived as earthquakes these types of behaviour are often assumed to be separated in space and to occur on two different types of fault segment one with stable rate strengthening friction and the other with rate weakening friction that leads to stick slip the 2011 tohoku oki earthquake with moment magnitude m w 9 0 challenged such assumptions by accumulating its largest seismic slip in the area that had been assumed to be creeping here we propose a model in which stable rate strengthening behaviour at low slip rates is combined with coseismic weakening due to rapid shear heating of pore fluids allowing unstable slip to occur in segments that can creep between events the model parameters are based on laboratory measurements on samples from the fault of the m w 7 6 1999 chi chi earthquake the long term slip behaviour of the model which we examine using a unique numerical approach that includes all wave effects reproduces and explains a number of both long term and coseismic observations some of them seemingly contradictory about the faults at which the tohoku oki and chi chi earthquakes occurred including there being more high frequency radiation from areas of lower slip the largest seismic slip in the tohoku oki earthquake having occurred in a potentially creeping segment the overall pattern of previous events in the area and the complexity of the tohoku oki rupture the implication that earthquake rupture may break through large portions of creeping segments which are at present considered to be barriers requires a re evaluation of seismic hazard in many areas

preceding coseismic and postseismic slips of the 2011 tohoku earthquake japan 1 we estimated the spatial and temporal evolution of the preceding aseismic slip from january 2003 to january 2011 the coseismic slip of the tohoku earthquake and the postseismic slip after the earthquake based on global positioning system gps data time dependent analysis indicates aseismic slip offshore of miyagi and fukushima prefectures from 2004 associated with a series of subduction earthquakes that overlap the aseismic slip area these preceding aseismic and coseismic slip areas are centered between the centers of the coseismic and afterslip areas of the tohoku earthquake offshore of miyagi prefecture while they overlap the coseismic and afterslip areas of the tohoku earthquake off fukushima prefecture the timing of moment magnitude nine mw9 class earthquakes appears to be controlled by multiple preceding slip events smaller earthquakes and their afterslip the preceding aseismic and coseismic slip decreased the coupling rate off the tohoku coast suggesting the possibility that the preceding slip represented a precursive stage of the tohoku earthquake the afterslip of the tohoku earthquake occurred in an area where the coseismic slip was not large complementing the large coseismic slip zone the afterslip along iwate miyagi extends up to 80 km in depth and is currently the sole mechanism of strain release in this depth range the source region of the anticipated miyagi oki earthquake shows small postseismic slip after the tohoku earthquake reflecting the energy release at the time of the earthquake aftershock activity is roughly governed by an afterslip process

locking of the chile subduction zone controlled by fluid pressure before the 2010 earthquake large subduction zone earthquakes are thought to occur where the down going and overriding tectonic plates are strongly locked analysis of geodetic and seismic data collected in the decade before the 2010 chile earthquake shows that variations in pore fluid pressure correlate with the degree of plate interface locking and may therefore control earthquake rupture

on the mechanism of seismic decoupling and back arc spreading at subduction zones to address the problem of the great variability of the mechanical state of subduction zones we investigate the mechanics of back arc spreading and seismic decoupling back arc spreading is assumed to be due to rifting of the upper plate and hence occurs when trench normal tension reaches a critical value seismic decoupling is assumed to occur when the normal stress at the frictional interface is decreased by an amount sufficient to cross the friction stability transition two forces are important in this problem the first is a small component of the slab pull force which remains unbalanced by the subduction resistance and exerts a vertical suction force at the trench the second is a sea anchor force exerted on the slab that resists its lateral motion assumed to occur at the upper plate velocity both forces contribute to the coupling problem only the sea anchor force is responsible for back arc spreading the unbalanced slab pull force is determined from a force balance for subduction the sea anchor force is computed as the hydrodynamic resistance to the facewise translation of an elliptical disc through a viscous fluid the model predicts three regimes seismically coupled compressional arcs with advancing upper plates seismically decoupled extensional arcs with retreating upper plates and strongly extensional arcs which also have back arc spreading this model is applied in detail to the izu bonin marianas system it shows that back arc spreading occurs when the integrated tension in the upper plate exceeds a value of about 1 1013 n m 1 and requires a residual tension of about a third that to drive the back arc spreading once rifting is completed it shows why the plate interface near guam is seismically coupled while the plate boundary everywhere farther north is decoupled when applied globally it successfully predicts the state of seismic coupling and back arc spreading in more than 80 of the world s subduction zones of the remaining half can be seen to contain additional complications not included in the model about 10 of cases remain unexplained but some of these may have incorrectly determined seismic coupling coefficients

slab1 0 a three dimensional model of global subduction zone geometries 1 we describe and present a new model of global subduction zone geometries called slab1 0 an extension of previous efforts to constrain the two dimensional non planar geometry of subduction zones around the focus of large earthquakes slab1 0 describes the detailed non planar three dimensional geometry of approximately 85 of subduction zones worldwide while the model focuses on the detailed form of each slab from their trenches through the seismogenic zone where it combines data sets from active source and passive seismology it also continues to the limits of their seismic extent in the upper mid mantle providing a uniform approach to the definition of the entire seismically active slab geometry examples are shown for two well constrained global locations models for many other regions are available and can be freely downloaded in several formats from our new slab1 0 website http on doi gov d9arbs we describe improvements in our two dimensional geometry constraint inversion including the use of average active source seismic data profiles in the shallow trench regions where data are otherwise lacking derived from the interpolation between other active source seismic data along strike in the same subduction zone we include several analyses of the uncertainty and robustness of our three dimensional interpolation methods in addition we use the filtered subduction related earthquake data sets compiled to build slab1 0 in a reassessment of previous analyses of the deep limit of the thrust interface seismogenic zone for all subduction zones included in our global model thus far concluding that the width of these seismogenic zones is on average 30 larger than previous studies have suggested

interplate seismogenic zones along the kuril japan trench inferred from gps data inversion stress accumulation between earthquakes results from slip that is insufficient to fully accommodate plate movement an inverse analysis of gps data from the kuril japan trench reveals a trench parallel belt of stress accumulation with six peaks in the depth range of 10 40 km suggesting potential source regions for future earthquakes in the subduction zones around japan where four plates interact with one another large earthquakes have occurred repeatedly1 these interplate earthquakes are part of the process of tectonic stress accumulation and release that is driven by relative plate motion2 3 4 stress accumulation between earthquakes results from slip deficit slip that is insufficient to fully accommodate plate movement for the prediction of large earthquakes it is therefore important to monitor the distribution of slip deficit on plate interfaces here we apply an inversion method based on bayesian modelling using direct and indirect prior information on the magnitude and distribution of fault slip5 to horizontal and vertical velocities from global positioning system data for the seismically calm period between 1996 and 2000 we obtain a precise distribution of slip deficit rates on the interface between the north american and pacific plates around japan which reveals a trench parallel belt of slip deficit with six peaks in the depth range of 10 40 km these peaks agree with the source regions of past large interplate earthquakes along the kuril japan trench we conclude that the slip deficit zones identified with our method are potential source regions of large earthquakes

do subducting seamounts generate or stop large earthquakes seamount subduction is a common process in subduction zone tectonics contradicting a widely held expectation that subducting seamounts generate large earthquakes seamounts subduct largely aseismically producing numerous small earthquakes on rare occasions when they do produce relatively large events the ruptures tend to be complex suggesting multiple rupture patches or faults we explain that the seismogenic behavior of these seamounts is controlled by the development and evolution of an adjacent fracture network during subduction and cannot be described using the frictional behavior of a single fault the complex structure and heterogeneous stresses of this network provide a favorable condition for aseismic creep and small earthquakes but an unfavorable condition for the generation and propagation of large ruptures

seismic and aseismic slip on the central peru megathrust slip on a subduction megathrust can be seismic or aseismic with the two modes of slip complementing each other in time and space to accommodate the long term plate motions although slip is almost purely aseismic at depths greater than about 40 km heterogeneous surface strain suggests that both modes of slip occur at shallower depths with aseismic slip resulting from steady or transient creep in the interseismic and postseismic periods thus active faults seem to comprise areas that slip mostly during earthquakes and areas that mostly slip aseismically the size location and frequency of earthquakes that a megathrust can generate thus depend on where and when aseismic creep is taking place and what fraction of the long term slip rate it accounts for here we address this issue by focusing on the central peru megathrust we show that the pisco earthquake with moment magnitude m w 8 0 ruptured two asperities within a patch that had remained locked in the interseismic period and triggered aseismic frictional afterslip on two adjacent patches the most prominent patch of afterslip coincides with the subducting nazca ridge an area also characterized by low interseismic coupling which seems to have repeatedly acted as a barrier to seismic rupture propagation in the past the seismogenic portion of the megathrust thus appears to be composed of interfingering rate weakening and rate strengthening patches the rate strengthening patches contribute to a high proportion of aseismic slip and determine the extent and frequency of large interplate earthquakes aseismic slip accounts for as much as 50 70 of the slip budget on the seismogenic portion of the megathrust in central peru and the return period of earthquakes with m w 8 0 in the pisco area is estimated to be 250 years

strength of stick slip and creeping subduction megathrusts from heat flow observations subduction faults called megathrusts can generate large and hazardous earthquakes the mode of slip and seismicity of a megathrust is controlled by the structural complexity of the fault zone however the relative strength of a megathrust based on the mode of slip is far from clear the fault strength affects surface heat flow by frictional heating during slip we model heat flow data for a number of subduction zones to determine the fault strength we find that smooth megathrusts that produce great earthquakes tend to be weaker and therefore dissipate less heat than geometrically rough megathrusts that slip mainly by creeping

simultaneous long term and short term slow slip events at the hikurangi subduction margin new zealand implications for processes that control slow slip event occurrence duration and migration 1 we document a sequence of simultaneous short term and long term slow slip events sses at the hikurangi subduction zone during the 2010 2011 period the sequence of short term events each 2 3 weeks in duration ruptured much of the shallow plate interface 15 km at central and northern hikurangi over a 6 month period was accompanied by microseismicity and involved patchy irregular migration of sse slip we suggest that the patchy migration of the short term sse is due to large scale 100 3500 km heterogeneities on the plate interface related to seamount subduction and sediment subduction and or underplating this is in contrast to a 2010 2011 long term sse at the central hikurangi margin which evolved steadily over 1 5 years and ruptured much of the plate interface between 20 and 70 km depth we suggest that the occurrence of long term versus short term sses at hikurangi is related to differences in effective normal stresses and relative heterogeneity of the subduction interface the long term sse sequence began 1 year before the short term sequence coulomb stress change models suggest that the long term sse may have triggered initiation of the subsequent short term sse sequence initiation of the short term sequence occurred in a region just updip of or within an interseismically locked portion of the plate interface and may be located within the updip transition from seismic to aseismic behavior alternatively it could be characteristic of a region undergoing partial interseismic coupling this is in contrast to sses observed elsewhere in the world that typically occur within the downdip transition from seismic to aseismic behavior

evidence of large scale repeating slip during the 2011 tohoku oki earthquake 1 the repetition of slip during rupture process of earthquake is a debate issue which had never been confirmed clearly in the past big events due to the lack of dense near field observations and limited resolution in time of source model the 2011 m9 0 tohoku oki earthquake generated a wealth seismic records which provided us an unprecedented opportunity to study the rupture evolution of giant earthquake at a high spatio temporal resolution here we use teleseismic local strong motion and near field coseismic geodetic data to investigate the source rupture process of this event based on the parallel inversion technique the results reveal a broad slip zone with remarkable large scale repeating slip during the earthquake the inverted source model shows several time periods of energy release with three main peaks these energy bursts and temporal rupture snapshots suggest repetition of a large scale slip on the biggest asperity this rupture behavior resulted in 50 m slips on the slip zone and prolonged the entire rupture process for a long duration of 160 seconds the proposed source model is in a good agreement with the aftershock distribution and can interpret the characteristics of local strong motions further investigations of repeating slip during this event are crucial which will deeply transform earthquake science from dynamic point of view

southern california permanent gps geodetic array spatial filtering of daily positions for estimating coseismic and postseismic displacements induced by the 1992 landers earthquake the june 28 1992 m w 7 3 landers california earthquake was the first earthquake to be surveyed by a continuously operating global positioning system gps array the coordinate time series of seven sites are evaluated for station displacements during an interval of 100 days centered on the day of the earthquake we employ a new spatial filtering technique that removes common mode errors from the coordinate time series this approach provides precise estimates of site specific displacements compared to the cumbersome method of analyzing baselines between pairs of stations all sites indicate significant coseismic horizontal displacements of 5 65 mm with uncertainties of 1 2 mm horizontal displacements are in general agreement with elastic dislocation models in particular for sites closer to the epicenter vertical displacements range from 13 to 7 mm with uncertainties of 2 4 mm the observed vertical displacements in all cases show 5 10 mm more subsidence than expected from geodetic and seismic geologic models significant postseismic horizontal displacements totaling 6 2 mm 10 20 of the coseismic displacement are detected at the three sites closest to the epicenter these displacements are modeled as a short term exponential relaxation with a decay time of 22 10 days superimposed on a longer term linear interseismic trend scaling the observed coseismic and postseismic displacements at one of the sites with the distance to the epicenter provides a measure of site strain which agrees well with the direction and magnitude determined from more precise laser strain meter data the time series do not show any detectable preseismic displacements

weak interplate coupling by seamounts and repeating m 7 earthquakes subducting seamounts are thought to increase the normal stress between subducting and overriding plates however recent seismic surveys and laboratory experiments suggest that interplate coupling is weak a seismic survey in the japan trench shows that a large seamount is being subducted near a region of repeating earthquakes of magnitude m 7 both observed seismicity and the pattern of rupture propagation during the 1982 m 7 0 event imply that interplate coupling was weak over the seamount a large rupture area with small slip occurred in front of the seamount its northern bound could be determined by a trace of multiple subducted seamounts whereas a subducted seamount itself may not define the rupture area its width may be influenced by that of the seamount

preglacial archaeological evidence at grimshaw the peace river area alberta reply an assemblage of quartzite cobbles with attributes of cultural flaking and utilization has been recorded at the base of a laurentide till at the contact with underlying fluvial gravels in a section face of a gravel pit near grimshaw in the course of quaternary geology mapping of the peace river area the geological context with secondarily redeposited stone artifacts documents distortion of an early prehistoric site located in a nonglacial riverine setting by the expanding late wisconsinan continental ice from the north the lithic assemblage provides further evidence for an earlier pre last glacial occupation of north america predating the earliest postglacial 11 500 bp palaeoindian cultures traditionally regarded as the hallmark of peopling of the new world

a silent slip event on the deeper cascadia subduction interface continuous global positioning system sites in southwestern british columbia canada and northwestern washington state usa have been moving landward as a result of the locked state of the cascadia subduction fault offshore in the summer of 1999 a cluster of seven sites briefly reversed their direction of motion no seismicity was associated with this event the sudden displacements are best explained by 2 centimeters of aseismic slip over a 50 kilometer by 300 kilometer area on the subduction interface downdip from the seismogenic zone a rupture equivalent to an earthquake of moment magnitude 6 7 this provides evidence that slip of the hotter plastic part of the subduction interface and hence stress loading of the megathrust earthquake zone can occur in discrete pulses