planform dynamics of the lower mississippi river this paper presents an analysis of the planform behaviour of the lower mississippi river lmr using a series of maps and hydrographic surveys covering the period 1765 1975 data allow analysis at various time and space scales using fixed and statistically defined reaches both before and after extensive channel modification previous research has interpreted planform change in relation to geomorphological or engineering regime type analyses of channel length and width for the lmr as a single system the analysis here is broadly consistent with these approaches but highlights the importance of meander geometry in the form of the radius of curvature width ratio this neglected factor helps resolve paradoxes relating to observed changes in sediment transport and channel stability when viewed over smaller time and space scales analysis of dynamics using fixed reach boundaries reveals a downstream trend in the pattern of planform behaviour which is closely related to the distribution of valley floor deposits and which also reflects neotectonic influences analysis of changes using statistically determined reach boundaries shows that over shorter time scales meander trains are continually formed and modified over a period of approximately 120 years zones of more or less dynamic behaviour thus move through the lmr the research also provides a context for 20th century engineering interventions to the river these have constrained the magnitude of planform adjustment but also altered the kind of response that is now possible in relation to changes in discharge and sediment load and as a consequence of internal feedbacks within the lmr system copyright 2006 john wiley sons ltd

flow fields bed shear stresses and suspended bed sediment dynamics in bifurcations of a large river 1 channel bifurcations associated with bars and islands are important nodes in braided rivers and may control flow partitioning and thus affect downstream confluences as well as the formation and dynamics of bars however the morphodynamic processes associated with bar formation are poorly understood and previous studies have largely concerned laboratory experiments small natural streams or numerical analyses with large froude numbers high slopes and low shields stresses in these cases the morphologic changes at bifurcations are relatively rapid with predominant bed load transport and the suspended load playing a minor role in this paper the evolution of the flow structure and suspended bed sediment transport along four expansion diffluence units in the rio parana argentina are described the rio parana is a large multichannel river with a bed composed of medium and fine sands and possesses low froude numbers and high suspended bed material transport primary and secondary flow velocity components were measured with an acoustic doppler current profiler adcp along the expansion diffluence units and the backscatter signal of the adcp was calibrated to allow simultaneous measurements of suspended bed sediment concentrations the interactions between these variables show that the cores of primary flow velocity and suspended bed sediment concentration do not necessarily follow the thalweg at the bifurcation and that inertial effects on the suspended bed sediment may influence the morphodynamics of bar formation it is suggested that changes in flow stage as well as the presence of vegetation may further increase the deposition of suspended bed sediment at the bar head this study suggests that the ratio of suspended bed material to bed load is an important factor controlling the morphodynamics of bifurcations in large sand bed braided rivers

failure of volcano slopes magmatic intrusions can initiate and sustain massive and catastrophic volcano collapse their role is twofold involving both driving and resisting forces first flank stability is diminished by magmastatic and magma overpressures and steepened slopes that accompany intrusion second excess pore pressures in potential failure zones can be generated as a result of intrusion related mechanical or thermal straining of the rock fluid medium pressurized retrograde boiling in high level magma chambers or hydrothermal fluid circulation also earthquakes may aid collapse through inertial forces and shaking induced pore pressure generation these excess pore pressures reduce the sliding resistance as shown for wedge shaped slide blocks for selected cases the destabilizing influence of mechanically induced pore pressures is maximized as the intruded width or corresponding overpressure of the intrusion is increased the destabilizing influence of thermally induced pore pressures is conditioned by the seve

link between major flank slip and 2002 2003 eruption at mt etna italy 1 the 2002 2003 etna eruption is studied through earthquake distributions and surface fracturing in september 2002 earthquake induced surface rupture sinistral offset 0 48 m occurred along the e w striking pernicana fault pf on the ne flank in late october a flank eruption accompanied further 0 77 m surface rupturing reaching a total sinistral offset of 1 25 m the deformation then propagated for 18 km eastwards to the coastline sinistral offset 0 03 m and southwards along the nw se striking timpe dextral offset 0 04 m and later trecastagni faults dextral offset 0 035 m seismicity 4 km bsl on the e flank accompanied surface fracturing fault plane solutions indicate an overall ese wnw extension direction consistent with ese slip of the e flank also revealed by ground fractures a three stage model of flank slip is proposed inception september earthquake climax accelerated slip and eruption and propagation e and s migration of the deformation

understanding etna flank instability through numerical models abstract as many active volcanoes mount etna shows clear evidence of flank instability and different mechanisms were suggested to explain this flank dynamics based on the recorded deformation pattern and character shallow and deep deformations mainly associated with both eruptive and seismic events are concentrated along recognised fracture and fault systems mobilising the eastern and south eastern flank of the volcano several interacting causes were postulated to control the phenomenon including gravity force magma ascent along the feeding system and a very complex local and or regional tectonic activity nevertheless the complexity of such dynamics is still an open subject of research and being the volcano flanks heavily urbanised the comprehension of the gravitative dynamics is a major issue for public safety and civil protection the present research explores the effects of the main geological features in particular the role of the subetnean clays interposed between the apennine maghrebian flysch and the volcanic products and the role of weakness zones identified by fracture and fault systems on the slope instability process the effects of magma intrusions are also investigated the problem is addressed by integrating field data laboratory tests and numerical modelling a bi and tri dimensional stress strain analysis was performed by a finite difference numerical code flac and flac 3d mainly aimed at evaluating the relationship among geological features volcano tectonic structures and magmatic activity in controlling the deformation processes the analyses are well supported by dedicated structural mechanical field surveys which allowed to estimate the rock mass strength and deformability parameters to take into account the uncertainties which inevitably occur in a so complicated model many efforts were done in performing a sensitivity analysis along a wnw ese section crossing the volcano summit and the valle del bove depression this was mainly devoted to evaluate the effect of topography geometry and rheological behaviour of the structural units the 3d numerical model extended 40 60 km was implemented to simulate the volcano deformation pattern first the role of the pleistocene subetnean clays was investigated then two structural weakness zones the pernicana fault system and the ne rift were introduced and their effects on the flank instability evaluated two extreme hydrogeological conditions drained and undrained were analysed the results are expressed in terms of stress strain field displacement pattern plasticity states and shear strain increments two main instability mechanisms were identified one at shallow depth with the sliding surface located inside the subetnean quaternary clay and another deep seated mechanism with a not continuous and less evident sliding surface developed inside the apennine maghrebian chain flysch bordered by active structures both mechanisms contribute to explain the present deformation pattern and some of the main structures of the etna flank the effect of magma pressure exerted on the active dyke walls during eruptions was then simulated and relations between magmatic activity and flank instability were preliminarily investigated

downstream hydraulic geometry and channel adjustment during a flood along an ephemeral arid region drainage in september 1997 a dissipating tropical storm caused a flood with an estimated maximum discharge of 240 m 3 s along yuma wash an ephemeral braided system draining 186 km 2 in southwest arizona older high water marks that record a flood peak of 1280 m 3 s provide a reasonable estimate for the probable maximum flood along the wash detailed channel crosssectional surveys during 1995 and again in 1998 6 months after the 1997 flood facilitated examination of downstream hydraulic geometry and channel adjustment during the flood channel width increased substantially downstream exponent of 0 78 presumably because of low bank resistance whereas hydraulic depth and velocity had modest downstream increases 0 15 and 0 14 respectively channel aggradation generally occurred along wider braided reaches moreover degradation occurred in narrow reaches with fewer channels aggradation and degradation also appeared to be governed by a threshold relationship between flow depth and vegetated bars degradation occurred where flow was confined within a channel or subchannel at discharges sufficiently high to overtop vegetated bars greater roughness facilitated sediment deposition and channels aggraded a discriminant function correctly classified nearly 90 of the cross sections as scoured or filled using a single hydraulic variable maximum depth of flow during the dissipating tropical storm d 2002 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

long term stress strain analysis of volcano flank instability the eastern sector of etna from 1980 to 2012 1 we investigated the evolution of seismicity and deformation in the unstable eastern flank of etna volcano over a 30 year period from 1980 to 2012 a significant temporal correlation has been revealed between periods of flank acceleration and intensified seismic activity by comparing seismicity along the northern border pernicana fault system of the sliding flank and the deformation of the eastern flank two marked phases have been observed in 1984 1986 and in the years following 2002 these two phases are separated by an intermediate phase from 1987 to 2001 in which the flank sliding slowed down and the seismicity dropped drastically this common temporal evolution in the deformation rate and seismic release supports the hypothesis that the seismicity in the northern border can be viewed as a marker of the response to accommodate the stress exerted by the traction of the eastern flank sliding this interplay has also been corroborated by finite element method numerical computations that highlight a good correlation between the seismicity pattern and areas of positive stress changes induced by the sliding surface the two intense phases of flank acceleration are representative of two main different sources volcano flank instability stretching the eastern sector in the first 1984 1986 phase and magmatic intrusions pushing the eastern flank seaward since the 2002 2003 eruption establishing the relationship between flank acceleration and seismic activation therefore contributes to understanding etna s mechanical behavior and provides insights into the processes regulating the unstable flank response

anisotropic velocity tomography a case study in a near surface rock mass cross borehole data were acquired in the surface crown pillar of a massive sulfide ore mine the data consist of five two dimensional 2 d cross borehole panels each with approximately 900 source receiver pairs the panels were located within the crown pillar at either side of and within a major subvertical fault zone that intersects the orebody an initial analysis of the data indicates that the bedrock containing the orebody is seismically anisotropic a rigorous analysis of the traveltimes using anisotropic velocity tomography confirms the initial assessment that anisotropy exists within the crown pillar rock mass anisotropic velocity tomography is the generalization of tomographic methods to anisotropic media as in any geophysical problem the data are insufficient to completely resolve the distributions of the rock properties at all scale lengths we use external constraints on the roughness of the final solution to ensure an algebraically well posed problem plots of the data residuals the t

effects of bed discordance on flow dynamics at open channel confluences although a discordance in bed elevation between mainstream and tributary channels is a common feature of most river confluences this height differential is largely ignored in many models of junction flow dynamics here we present new laboratory flume data that demonstrate the significant influence of bed discordance on flow at an acute angled confluence a difference in bed height between mainstream and tributary channels is shown to obliterate flow deflection at the bed and create a distortion of the mixing layer between the flows resulting in fluid upwelling at the downstream junction corner this upwelling is responsible for the absence of a flow separation zone near the bed at the downstream junction corner and the lack of a zone of marked flow acceleration in the postconfluence channel these experiments reveal complex flow fields generated by bed discordance and suggest the need for major revisions to current models of river channel confluence flow dynamics and their application to sediment routing at these sites

quantifying channel development and sediment transfer following chute cutoff in a wandering gravel bed river abstract three dimensional morphological adjustment in a chute cutoff breach alluvial channel is quantified using digital elevation model dem analysis for a ca 0 7 km reach of the river coquet northumberland uk following cutoff in january 1999 channel and bar topography was surveyed using a total station on five occasions between february 1999 and december 2000 analysis of planform change coupled with dem differencing elucidates channel and barform development following cutoff and enables quantification of sediment transfers associated with morphological adjustment within the reach this exercise indicates an initial phase of bed scour followed by a period characterised by extensive bank erosion and lateral channel migration where erosion including bed scour totalled some 15 000 m3 of sediment the channel in the post cutoff disequilibrium state is highly sensitive to relatively low magnitude floods and provision of accommodation space by bank erosion encouraged extensive lateral bar development bar development was further facilitated by infilling of channels abandoned by repeated within reach avulsion and large scale aggradation of sediment lobes deposited by higher magnitude floods calculations indicate that at least 6600 m3 of sediment was deposited on emerging bars within the reach over the survey period and 2300 m3 deposited within the channel sediment losses from the reach may have exceeded 6500 m3

bed morphology and sedimentology at the confluence of unequal depth channels abstract spatial and temporal variations in the bed geometry and bed material size of a sand bed river confluence with unequal depth channels were monitored during a sequence of floods additionally two other sand bed confluences were surveyed to test the replicability of these observations the confluences studied here have only one avalanche face which corresponds to the front of a tributary mouth bar in the shallower channel and do not exhibit a marked scour zone three distinct morpho sedimentological zones are present 1 an area around the upstream corner of the junction where the sediments are generally finer than the mean 2 a maximum depth zone with coarser than average particles and 3 a bar at the downstream junction corner where grain size is finer than the mean and decreases slightly downstream changes in relative discharge between the two channels had little effect on the grain size of the downstream junction corner bar but exerted a strong influence on the position of the maximum depth zone and the front of the tributary mouth bar the downstream junction corner bar showed little evidence of the separation zone which is commonly observed at the confluences of laboratory channels the contrasting depths of the approach channels at the sites studied here may be partly responsible for the absence of the separation zone

geological evolution of mount etna volcano italy from earliest products until the first central volcanism between 500 and 100 ka ago inferred from geochronological and stratigraphic data we present an updated geological evolution of mount etna volcano based on new 40ar 39ar age determinations and stratigraphic data integrating the previous k ar ages volcanism began at about 500 ka ago through submarine eruptions on the gela catania foredeep basin about 300 ka ago fissure type eruptions occurred on the ancient alluvial plain of the simeto river forming a lava plateau from about 220 ka ago the eruptive activity was localised mainly along the ionian coast where fissure type eruptions built a shield volcano between 129 and 126 ka ago volcanism shifted westward toward the central portion of the present volcano val calanna moscarello area furthermore scattered effusive eruptions on the southern periphery of etna edifice occurred until about 121 ka ago the stabilization of the plumbing system on the valle del bove area is marked by the building of two small polygenic edifices tarderia and rocche volcanoes their eruptive activity was rather coeval ending 106 and 102 ka ago respectively during the investigated time span volcanism in etna region was controlled by a main e w extensional tectonic related to the reactivation of malta escarpment fault system in eastern sicily

geometric and kinematic variations along the active pernicana fault implication for the dynamics of mount etna ne flank italy abstract geological and structural analyses and ground deformation measurements performed along the eastern portion of the pernicana fault system and its splay segments allow the structural setting and the kinematic behaviour of the fault to be defined in addition the interrelationship between the deformation style of fault segments and the variations of the volcanic pile thickness along the fault strike are investigated using detailed sedimentary basement data brittle deformation dominates the n105 fault segment where the volcanic pile is more than 200 m thick with the development of a well defined fault plane characterised by main left lateral kinematics the transtensive deformation of the n105 fault is partitioned eastward at rocca campana to a main n120 segment here this segment crosses a culmination of the sedimentary basement close to vena village where the deformation pattern of the thin volcanic pile less than 100 m thick is influenced by the more ductile behaviour of the basement generating local short structures with different orientation and kinematics in the southern block of the fault on the northern one short e w trending faults show left lateral displacements with a minor reverse component on south dipping planes this kinematics is related to the oblique orientation of the n120 segment with respect to the seaward motion of the ne flank of etna on the whole the compressive component of the deformation affecting the n120 segment of the pernicana fault system generates a positive flower structure

seismic heterogeneity of mt etna structure and activity a dense seismic array maintained temporarily for 7 weeks provides an approach to deducing the 3 d heterogeneity of the structure of the upper crust beneath mt etna volcano from the inversion of p and s wave arrivals of local earthquakes independent data from a different source array geometry using waves generated by distant shots at sea confirm a main lateral variation a high velocity body underlies part of the volcano its contrast with the surrounding thick sedimentary pile and its location extending from the present summit to the southeast suggests that it may have been built by the development and migration of past eruptive centres followed by caldera collapse local low velocity anomalies near its sharp western edge may be associated with presently active features

dynamics of the eastern flank of mt etna volcano italy investigated by a dense gps network abstract mount etna has developed at the intersection of two regional tectonic lineaments the nnw sse trending hybleo maltese escarpment which separates the thick inland continental crust of the african platform from the ionian mesozoic oceanic crust and the ne sw messina fiumefreddo fault that marks a rift zone between south calabria and north eastern sicily extending as far as the mt etna area all tectonic features affect with outstanding surface features the eastern side of the volcano the eastern flank of the volcano is affected by a long term motion toward ese in 1997 in order to increase the detail of the ground deformation pattern on the lower eastern flank of mt etna a new gps network the ionica network was installed on this sector of the volcano this gps network consists of 24 stations and covers the lower eastern flank of the volcano from the town of catania to taormina and from the coastline up to an altitude of about 1300 m all the new stations consist in self centring benchmarks this kind of benchmark allows all station set up errors to be avoided before the merging of the ionica network to the frame of the global gps network of mt etna in june 2001 three surveys were carried out on this network in september 1997 august 1998 and january 2001 from the ground deformation pattern it is possible to distinguish two different sectors showing different characteristics of deformation the southern part of the network shows a more uniform distribution of the vertical motion with a mean se ward horizontal component while the northern one shows an heterogeneous vertical motion with a ese ward horizontal component furthermore a higher velocity is detected between 1997 and 1998 due to the additional stress induced by a shallow intrusion on the nw flank of the volcano the model resulting from data inversions defines a wide sliding plane beneath the entire eastern flank of the volcano with a low dip angle the expected velocity vectors fit well the observed ones even if the measured velocities are still quite higher than expected at lowermost stations the vertical inclination of the velocity vectors measured during the 1998 2001 period gradually decreases from west to east suggesting a sort of rotational movement of the south eastern flank interrupted by some anomalous vectors on the lower part that show higher vertical velocities these anomalies being located on a wedge defined by the intersection of the main nnw sse and ne sw fault systems and near the timpe faults are probably due to the activity of the vertical faults cutting the lower eastern flank of mt etna stations lying on the hanging wall and on the footwall of the timpe fault system are affected by similar horizontal displacements meaning that these structures are moving eastwards together with the sliding flank this evidence suggests that the timpe faults are probably second order structures with respect to the detachment surface these results depict a structural framework of the eastern flank of mt etna in which the low angle dislocation can be considered as a first order approximation of an actual listric plane and the current active part of the timpe fault system is confined above the detachment surface

field investigation of three dimensional flow structure at stream confluences 2 turbulence stream confluences are among the most highly turbulent locations in fluvial systems this paper examines the three dimensional structure of turbulence at three stream confluences in east central illinois the analysis focuses on the characteristics of turbulence both within the shear layer and in the ambient flow results show that at the upstream end of each confluence the shear layer occupies a limited portion of the flow cross sectional area but turbulence kinetic energy within this layer is 2 3 times greater than the turbulence kinetic energy of the ambient flow which has turbulence characteristics similar to those for flow in straight channels turbulence within the shear layer can be characterized as quasi two dimensional in the sense that large scale turbulence generated by transverse shear is predominantly two dimensional whereas small scale turbulence associated with bed friction is three dimensional spectral analysis suggests that the structure of fluid motion within the shear layer differs for confluences with symmetrical versus asymmetrical planforms the shear layer dissipates rapidly as flow enters the downstream channel even though a well defined mixing interface persists at downstream locations

composite ground deformation pattern forerunning the 2004 2005 mount etna eruption 1 after the end of the 2002 2003 eruption mount etna activity was characterized only by gentle degassing at the summit craters and some earthquake swarms suddenly an eruption started on 7 september 2004 in complete absence of summit crater volcanic activity seismicity or seismic tremor and ground deformation this is the first time that magma poured out passively without preeruptive and coeruptive volcanic and or geophysical phenomena the primary key to understanding this event is represented by the ground deformation pattern recorded through gps measurements during the year before the eruption the ground deformation shows inflation superimposed by a predominant eastward movement of the eastern sector at a rate never observed before in a noneruptive period the images from satellite radar interferometry confirmed this pattern the deformation field clearly shows that the maximum tension in the eastern sector of the volcano caused the opening of the eruptive fracture which favored the silent pouring out of already resident magma

large submarine landslides offshore mt etna 1 high resolution seismic data we collected in the ionian sea reveal large submarine landslide deposits offshore from mt etna italy spatially consistent with the eastern flank collapse of this volcano a large debris avalanche deposit we relate to the valle del bove scar displays long offshore run outs till 20 km and a volume of a few tens of cubic kilometres 16 21 km 3 other landslide deposits are also imaged in particular a striking unique record of the relative timing of multiple submarine large slump events

seismological features of the pernicana provenzana fault system mt etna italy and implications for the dynamics of northeastern flank of the volcano abstract the pernicana provenzana fault system is one of the most active tectonic systems of mt etna and it plays an important role in the dynamic of the eastern flank of the volcano earthquakes occurring close to this structural trend have reached magnitudes up to 4 2 sometimes with coseismic surface faulting and have caused severe damages to tourist resorts and villages in the vicinity of this structure in the last decade a large number of shocks sometimes in the form of swarms linked to pernicana provenzana fault system movements have been detected by the permanent local seismic network operating in eastern sicily in this paper we report on the detailed study of the seismic activity occurring during the 2000 2009 time span in the pernicana provenzana fault system area firstly we located 407 earthquakes using a standard location code and a 1d crustal velocity model we then applied two different approaches to calculate precise hypocenter locations of the events in particular a non linear code was adopted to obtain an estimate of the a posteriori probability density function in 3d space for the hypocenter location moreover a relative location of correlated event pairs was performed using the double difference method these two different location approaches allowed defining with good accuracy the most active and hazarding sectors of the structure the results of these precise locations showed a tighter clustering in the epicenters and in focal depths in comparison with standard locations earthquakes are located along the pernicana provenzana fault system and are mainly clustered in two zones separated by an area with very low rate of earthquakes occurrence but characterized by the highest energy release depths of the foci are very shallow ranging between the surface and about 3 km b s l kinematics of the pernicana provenzana fault system revealed by the fault plane solutions computed for the most energetic earthquakes highlights a predominant dip slip and left strike movements along e w oriented fault planes in agreement with field observations

the morphology of graded gravel rivers a network perspective analytical hydraulic geometry equations are combined with a watershed model to quantify downstrem trends in equilibrium fluvial morphology in gravel streams the hydraulic geometry equations relaet fluvial morphology to discharge bedload transport rate and grain size these independent variables are in turn determined by routing gravel supplied at zero order basins through a channel network as gravel is routed downstream it decreases in size according to an empirical power law the resulting model specifies the discharge bedload transport rate grain size width depth slope and river bed elevation at every point in the drainage basin when the downstream fining law is calibrated using data from central pennsylvania dowstream hydraulic geometry exponents for the width and depth are accurately reproduced longitudinal profiles calculated from the model fit observed profiles in largerwatersheds but are inaccurate in smaller watersheds the model also reproduces hack s 1957 empirical result relating slope to the 0 6 power of a ds where a is the drainage basin area and ds is the mean grain size unfortunately the model requires an equilibrium time scale which is unreasonably long suggesting that the channels of the study area are best described as systems with multiple time scales and multiple rates of response the model probably is successful because the width and depth have relatively short relaxation times and also because downstream trends in discharge and sediment transport rate are controlled by network topology thus downstream hydraulic geometry equations do not necessarily provide strong evidence for the equilibrium of fluvial landscapes rather they reflect the constancy of network topology and the rapid response times of width and depth

potential coordinate mislocations in crosshole tomography results from the grimsel test site switzerland tomographic techniques based on borehole to borehole and tunnel to borehole traveltime data are now being employed in a wide range of studies associated with the exploration and exploitation of hydrocarbons and metallic minerals the disposal of chemical and radioactive waste diverse civil engineering projects and archaeology a fundamental assumption of currently employed tomographic inversion strategies is that the coordinates of the boreholes and tunnels containing the seismic sources and receivers are accurately known by inverting both synthetic and observed traveltime data we demonstrate that relatively minor coordinate errors 1 2 in the deeper parts of long boreholes 100 m may produce artifacts in the tomographic images that are comparable in extent and amplitude to true velocity anomalies to address this problem we introduce the coupled inverse method commonly used in earthquake studies as a means to determine simultaneously borehole coordinate adjustments and an estimate of the tomog

understanding confluence dynamics in the alluvial ganga ramganga valley india an integrated approach using geomorphology and hydrology abstract confluence dynamics in the ganga ramganga valley in the western ganga plains of india has been studied through systematic mapping of channel configuration using multi date remote sensing images and topographic sheets for a period spanning nearly 100 years 1911 2000 the study has been supplemented with a detailed analysis of the channel morphology hydrology and sediment transport characteristics of the different rivers our study indicates that new confluences have been created during this period and that the confluence points have moved both upstream and downstream on a historical time scale apart from major avulsions other processes that have controlled the confluence movements include river capture cut offs and aggradation in the confluence area river capture occurs through lateral bank erosion and migration encroachment by the master stream and beheading of smaller rivers resulting in upstream movement of the confluence point another process which influences the upstream migration of the confluence is an increase in sinuosity of one of the channels near the confluence and then a cut off aggradation in the confluence area and local avulsions of the primary channel in a multi channel system seem to be the major process controlling the downstream movement of the confluence point analysis of channel morphology hydrology and sediment budget for the study period supports our interpretations

response of the san andreas fault to the 1983 coalinga nunez earthquakes an application of interaction based probabilities for parkfield 1 the parkfield cholame section of the san andreas fault site of an unfulfilled earthquake forecast in 1985 is the best monitored section of the world s most closely watched fault in 1983 the m 6 5 coalinga and m 6 0 nunez events struck 25 km northeast of parkfield seismicity rates climbed for 18 months along the creeping section of the san andreas north of parkfield and dropped for 6 years along the locked section to the south right lateral creep also slowed or reversed from parkfield south here we calculate that the coalinga sequence increased the shear and coulomb stress on the creeping section causing the rate of small shocks to rise until the added stress was shed by additional slip however the 1983 events decreased the shear and coulomb stress on the parkfield segment causing surface creep and seismicity rates to drop we use these observations to cast the likelihood of a parkfield earthquake into an interaction based probability which includes both the renewal of stress following the 1966 parkfield earthquake and the stress transfer from the 1983 coalinga events we calculate that the 1983 shocks dropped the 10 year probability of a m 6 parkfield earthquake by 22 from 54 22 to 42 23 and that the probability did not recover until about 1991 when seismicity and creep resumed our analysis may thus explain why the parkfield earthquake did not strike in the 1980s but not why it was absent in the 1990s we calculate a 58 17 probability of a m 6 parkfield earthquake during 2001 2011 index terms 7223 seismology seismic hazard assessment and prediction 7230 seismology seismicity and seismotectonics 7260 seismology theory and modeling keywords coalinga earthquake parkfield stress change earthquake probability seismicity rate

mixing layer distortion at the confluence of channels of different depth channel confluences have received considerable recent attention in the fields of geomorphology1 3 sedimentology4 9 and hydraulic engineering10 13 where channels join rapid changes in fluid velocity turbulence intensity channel hydraulic geometry and bed geometry may occur14 17 previous models of junction dynamics have tended to assume that the confluent channels are of equal depth10 18 a condition that may be found only rarely in natural junctions more often the depths of confluent channels are different19 this discordance is commonly the result of the forma tion at the mouth of each confluent channel of bars that possess steep avalanche faces which dip into a central junction scour1 2 5 20 here we suggest that when channels of different depth join the mixing layer that forms at their confluence is distorted by interacting with a separation zone which forms in the lee of the mouth of the shallower channel this mixing layer distortion imparts a complex three dimensional flow to the junction promoting vertical fluid upwelling and significantly enhancing rapid mixing within the flow of the shallow tributary while retarding the rate of mixing across the flow of the deeper channel suspended sediments or contaminants within the deeper channel may be transferred rapidly across the flow of the shallower tributary upwelling downstream of the junction

flow and sediment dynamics in channel confluences confluences with relatively low discharge and momentum flux ratios where a small steep tributary with a high supply of poorly sorted sediment joins a large low gradient main channel commonly occur in nature but they have not yet been investigated measurements of the three dimensional velocity field turbulence sediment transport bed material grain size and morphology are reported in a laboratory setting that is representative of confluences on the upper rhone river switzerland the difference between the low flow depth in the steep tributary and the higher flow depth in the main channel creates a marked bed discordance in the tributary zone due to this bed discordance the tributary flow penetrates into the main channel mainly in the upper part of the water column whereas the main channel flow is hardly hindered by the tributary in the lower part of the water column giving rise to a two layer flow structure in the confluence zone in confluences with high supply of coarse sediment from the tributary the development of a deposition bar downstream from the confluence reduces the flow area and causes flow acceleration that contributes to an increase in sediment transport capacity the sediment supplied by the tributary is mainly sorted and transported on the face of the bar by the near bed flow originating from the main channel the sediment transport capacity is further increased by the three dimensionality of the flow which is characterized by maximum velocities occurring near the bed and by a considerable increase in turbulent kinetic energy generated in the shear layer at the interface of the flows originating from the main channel and the tributary a conceptual model is proposed for the hydro morpho sedimentary processes and compared to existing conceptual models for confluences with different characteristics

etna 2002 eruption imaged from continuous tilt and gps data 1 on the night of october 26 2002 intense explosive activity and lava effusion began suddenly on the southern flank of mt etna at an altitude of 2750 m during the 27 and 28 october a long field of eruptive fractures propagated radially along the north eastern flank of the volcano ground deformation changes recorded between 26 and 27 october from gps and tilt data collected at the permanent geodetic network of mt etna were modeled to infer the positions and dimensions of the two dikes the observed deformation pattern was consistent with a response of the edifice to a composite mechanism consisting of a vertical uprising dike in the upper southern flank and a lateral intrusion propagating along the north eastern sector the first dike which triggered the eruption crossed the volcano edifice in a few hours and was located in the same area as the 2001 eruption while the second lateral dike which crossed the ne flank was the primary cause of the recorded deformation pattern

the use of earthquake rate changes as a stress meter at kilauea volcano stress changes in the earth s crust are generally estimated from model calculations that use near surface deformation as an observational constraint but the widespread correlation of changes of earthquake activity with stress has led to suggestions that stress changes might be calculated from earthquake occurrence rates obtained from seismicity catalogues although this possibility has considerable appeal because seismicity data are routinely collected and have good spatial and temporal resolution the method has not yet proven successful owing to the non linearity of earthquake rate changes with respect to both stress and time here however we present two methods for inverting earthquake rate data to infer stress changes using a formulation for the stress and time dependence of earthquake rates application of these methods at kilauea volcano in hawaii yields good agreement with independent estimates indicating that earthquake rates can provide a practical remote sensing stress meter

magma storage eruptive activity and flank instability inferences from ground deformation and gravity changes during the 1993 2000 recharging of mt etna volcano abstract a long recharging period characterized mount etna volcano during 1993 2000 before the main explosive effusive 2001 and 2002 2003 flank eruptions the joint analysis of ground deformation and gravity data over the recharge period reveals that different phenomena occurred within etna s plumbing system and clearly indicates two phases spanning 1993 1997 and 1997 2000 respectively the first phase was characterized by magma storage and accumulation at an intermediate depth 2 6 km below sea level which provoked overall inflation and positive gravity changes during the second phase the magma started to rise and intrude at shallower levels favoring the movement of the unstable eastern flank which accelerated its sliding toward the east the shallower magma accumulation also caused the gas exsolution associated with increasing explosive activity at the summit craters negative gravity changes were detected during this phase the gravity measurements independent of the same result obtained by geochemical studies suggest that only 20 30 of the magma volumes supplied in the plumbing system were then erupted the complex dynamics of rising magma beneath mount etna makes ground deformation and gravity measurements complementary being able to detect different effects of magma emplacements beneath the surface our results also highlight how the joint use of ground deformation and gravity observations may be crucial in identifying the nature and rate of an impending period of volcanic eruptions

dynamics of a river channel confluence with discordant beds flow turbulence bed load sediment transport and bed morphology 1 river channel confluences play a major role in the dynamics of all fluvial systems and yet our understanding of bed load routing at these sites is very sparse the dynamics of confluences are a function of the momentum ratio between the combining flows and the three dimensional geometry of the junction recent experiments have shown that discordance in bed height between the confluent rivers increases turbulence intensity and enhances upwelling of flow within the confluence however the significance of these flow characteristics on sediment transport is still unknown to examine the relations between flow and sediment transport we have measured near bed flow turbulence bed load transport rates and changes in bed morphology for eight different flow conditions at a sand bed discordant confluence detailed analysis of the near bed flow patterns reveals that within the shear layer low mean flow velocities are combined with the highest values of reynolds shear stresses and that turbulence generation is associated with intense upward movements of flow high sediment transport rates are found at the edges of the shear layer region where horizontal vertical cross stresses uw are high these patterns match changes in bed morphology where erosion occurs along the shear layer the relation between the shear layer and sediment transport confirms the role of bed discordance on the dynamics of the confluence migration of the shear layer into the confluence as a result of a change in momentum ratio modifies local near bed flow characteristics sediment transport rates and the spatial distribution of deposition and erosion zones

microseismic investigation of an unstable mountain slope in the swiss alps 1 risks associated with unstable rocky slopes are growing as a result of climate change and rapid expansions of human habitats and critical infrastructure in mountainous regions to improve our understanding of mountain slope instability we developed a microseismic monitoring system that operates autonomously in remote areas afflicted by harsh weather our microseismic system comprising 12 three component geophones was deployed across 60 000 m 2 of rugged crystalline terrain above a huge 30 million m 3 recent rockfall in the swiss alps during its 31 month lifetime signals from 223 microearthquakes with approximate moment magnitudes ranging from 2 to 0 were recorded determining the hypocenters was challenging for several reasons 1 p wave velocities were highly heterogeneous varying abruptly from 3 8 km s 2 first break picks were either inaccurate or lacking for some microearthquakes 3 there were no reliable s wave picks 4 numerous microearthquakes occurred just outside the network boundaries these issues were addressed by using a three dimensional 3 d p wave velocity model of the mountain slope determined from refraction tomography in a nonlinear inversion for hypocenter parameters and their probability density functions recordings from geophones at different altitudes and in boreholes constrained microearthquake depth estimates most microearthquakes were concentrated within 50 100 m of the surface in two zones one that followed the recent rockslide scarp and one that spanned the volume of highest fracture zone fault density these two active zones delineated a mass of rock that according to geodetic measurements has moved toward the scarp at 1 2 cm yr

medium and short term channel planform changes on the rivers tay and tummel scotland abstract channel planform change was analysed using a variety of data sources for the medium term 25 years and

coupling of eruptions and earthquakes at mt etna sicily italy a case study from the 1981 and 2001 events 1 changes in coulomb failure stress cfs induced by dike propagation during two flank eruptions on mt etna 1981 and 2001 are calculated for the most seismically active faults on the east slope of the volcano the right lateral timpe fault system oriented nnw sse and the left lateral pernicana fault oriented e w calculations performed using coulomb 2 5 software indicate that intrusion of a nnw dike on the nw side of the volcano 1981 eruption rises cfs on both the timpe and pernicana faults in contrast intrusion of a n s dike at high elevation on the south flank 2001 eruption rises cfs only on timpe fault system these results are compatible with the observed pattern of seismicity but emphasize an extremely heterogeneous state of stress on the east flank of the volcano

bedload transport in a river confluence abstract the confluence of the regulated tolten river and its tributary the unregulated allipen south of chile has proved dynamic in the last decade daily bedload measurements with a helley smith sampler bed surveys and grain size distributions of the two rivers are obtained from a field campaign that lasts 3 months in high flow season the goals are to quantify total bedload and to understand the balance between tributary and main river and the bedload distribution in space and texture the bedload transport varies 200 fold with a maximum of 5000 t day the discharge varies five fold with a maximum of 900 m 3 s two thirds of the total bedload volume are transported through the deeper area of the cross section and gravel is predominant 64 average bedload volumes in the confluence seem unbalanced in favour of the tributary main river bedload transport is predominantly at below capacity conditions while the tributary bedload transport is at capacity conditions this is deemed the main reason of inaccuracy of the bedload predictors the roles of entrainment into suspension helical flow partial transport and mobile armour are discussed

fem based inversion for heterogeneous fault mechanisms application at etna volcano by dinsar data summary a procedure based on the finite element method fem for high resolution geodetic data inversion was developed to estimate non uniform slip distribution during the 2002 september 22 m3 7 earthquake rupture occurring only one month before the 2002 2003 eruption of etna volcano fem generated synthetic green s functions are combined with an inverse algorithm to simulate deformation of the earthquake for a 3 d problem domain that takes into account heterogeneity of material properties in the volcanic edifice the inversion of dinsar data shows complex kinematics of the northeastern flank of the etna volcano involving the pernicana fault system we detailed the coseismic shear rupture mechanism and highlighted a tensile mechanism never observed before related to a first attempt of magma intrusion which preceded the following october 26 eruption

dike emplacement and flank instability at mount etna constraints from a poro elastic model of flank collapse this work was funded by istituto nazionale di geofisica e vulcanologia ingv and the italian dipartimento per la protezione civile dpc dpc ingv project v4 flank

fault creep and kinematics of the eastern segment of the pernicana fault mt etna italy derived from geodetic observations and their tectonic significance abstract aseismic fault displacements related to numerous fast slipping active faults are frequently observed on mt etna but the characteristics and the rate of displacements along with the behaviour of individual fault segments are poorly constrained to resolve this we installed two local geodetic networks in 1997 along the eastern segment of the pernicana fault one of the most active structures in the geodynamic framework of the volcano the networks are based on the electroptical distance measurements edm and global positioning system gps techniques and consist of four and six benchmarks respectively geodetic data confirm that the tectonic activity of the eastern pernicana fault is controlled by fault creep i e a near continuous stable sliding at a mean slip rate of 2 8 cm yr punctuated by aseismic displacement episodes the analysis of the strain tensor calculated from the edm and gps data indicates that deformation in the fault zone is related to a clear sinistral strike slip movement a more complete picture is obtained from the gps measurements for the rocca campana area where the main structure branches out eastward into a splay fault the inversion of 3d displacement vectors suggests a deformation model consisting of two principal sinistral strike slip faults with an oblique component of movement the maximum observed displacement 6 1 cm measured in the period april 1997 february 1999 is accommodated by the splay fault this finding corroborates the hypothesis that as proposed by the tectonic models in the literature the movement of the eastern segment of the pernicana fault is transferred easterly towards structures at a lower altitude along the same strike e g the fiumefreddo fault as a consequence the pernicana fault may constitute part of a continuous left lateral trans current zone which displaces the whole north eastern flank of mt etna

feeding system and magma storage beneath mt etna as revealed by recent inflation deflation cycles 1 ground deformation at mt etna detected by three gps surveys carried out in 2004 2005 and 2006 is analyzed the data set encompasses the 2004 2005 eruptions and foreruns those of 2006 a wide deflation of the entire volcano was detected from 2004 to 2005 accompanying the 2004 2005 eruption conversely an evident inflation phase from 2005 to 2006 followed this eruption and preceded the 2006 one in both cases the deflation inflation cycle was accompanied by a continuous seaward motion of the eastern flank we inverted both data sets 2004 2005 deflation and 2005 2006 inflation using an optimization algorithm based on the genetic algorithm ga in order to detect the ground deformation sources the wide contraction measured during the eruption reveals the drainage of a sill shaped magma reservoir located by data inversions at a depth of about 4 5 km b s l the pressurizing source modeled for the 2005 2006 time interval indicates a refilling of the shallower near vertical plumbing system of the volcano this could indicate a change in the geometry of the feeding system active after the 2004 2005 eruption with a new and shallower magma storage that could have enabled the resumption of volcanic activity that was observed at summit craters in 2006 these results improve the imaging of the plumbing system of mt etna volcano

importance of gravitational spreading in the tectonic and volcanic evolution of mount etna the interaction between gravity and thermal effects largely determines the structural and magmatic evolution of volcanic constructs at scales spanning several orders of magnitude from small cones to the oceanic crust1 3 although gravitational spreading is a direct consequence of this interaction and a fundamental process in volcano growth it is rarely recognized as such here we describe a striking example of this process at etna volcano in italy the volcano and its clay rich substratum are slowly spreading towards the east and south driven by gravity spreading produces extensional structures in the summit region and contpressional structures at the base of the volcano eastward movement of the volcanic edifice over a stationary magma supply may be the cause of an apparent westward migration of volcanic activity as gravitational spreading seems to control the location and magnitude of shallow seismicity and flank eruptions an appreciation of its effects could become an essential element of future volcanic hazard evaluation our model proposed here for etna may also be relevant to a reinterpretation of the geological history of a number of other volcanoes

structural assessment of mount etna volcano from permanent scatterers analysis a study of the deformation pattern of mount etna volcano based on the results from the permanent scatterers ps technique is reported ground motion data provided by the interferometric synthetic aperture radar insar ps technique from 1995 to 2000 are compared and validated by gps data an analysis of the ascending and descending line of sight los components of ground velocities has yielded detailed ground deformation maps and cross sections this analysis allows detection and constraint of discontinuities in the surface velocity field los velocities have then been combined to calculate the vertical and horizontal e w ground velocities a wide inflation of the edifice has been detected on the western and northern flanks over an area of about 350 km2 a seaward motion of the eastern and southern flanks has also been measured ps data allows the geometry and kinematics of the several blocks composing the unstable flanks to be defined even in the highly urbanized areas and their displacement rates have been measured with millimeter precision this analysis reveals the extension of some features beyond their field evidences and defines new important features the results of this work depict a new comprehensive kinematic model of the volcano highlighting the gravitational reorganization of the unbuttressed volcanic pile on its slippery clay basement on the southern flank but an additional drag force due to a strong subsidence of the continental margin facing the etna volcano is necessary to explain the ps velocity field observed on the eastern flank

anisotropic seismic tomography of a potential hot dry rock reservoir before and during induced pressurization to assess the effects of changing fluid pressure in a potential hot dry rock reservoir two cross hole seismic surveys were conducted one at ambient pressures and one with the investigated volume hydraulically overpressured by 3 3 mpa sources and receivers were located in two straight subvertical boreholes 100 m apart traveltime data were inverted for velocity information in two phases during the first phase the seismic velocities were constrained to be isotropic and during the second they were allowed to be anisotropic accounting for anisotropy enhanced greatly the interpretability of the tomograms before pressurization a low velocity anomaly at 455 475 m depth correlated with a subhorizontal zone of hydraulically permeable fractures connecting the two boreholes although the absolute magnitude of anisotropy is not well constrained the dominant orientation of the ti axes is consistent with the local stress field hydraulic over pressurization resulted in a pronounced extension of the low velocity zone but had no significant effects on the velocity structure elsewhere the results of this study suggest that anisotropic seismic tomography may be a key method for characterizing hot dry rock reservoirs

separation zone at open channel junctions the configuration of open channel junctions controls local sedimentary processes channel scour and sidewall erosion through its influence on the flow patterns established as confluent streams compete for limited channel capacity entry of a tributary into a mainstream ensures detachment of flow from the channel sidewall immediately downstream from the junction and flume experiments show well defined relationships between the dimensions of the separation zone and discharge from the tributary other things equal both the width and length of the separation zone increase systematically with an increase in confluence angle though it is shown that values of width are much less than predicted by recent mathematical modelling the zone grows at the expense of the proportion of the channel occupied by the immediate post confluence flow with the consequence that near bottom velocity increases by a factor of 1 3 as confluence angle is increased from 15 90 the implications for sediment entrainment are reviewed briefly

confluence effects in rivers interactions of basin scale network geometry and disturbance regimes 1 we reviewed 14 studies documenting the effects of tributaries on river morphology at 167 confluences along 730 km of river spanning seven orders of magnitude in drainage area in western united states and canada in both humid and semiarid environments the probability of observing significant confluence related changes in channel and valley morphology due to tributary influxes of sediment e g changes in gradient particle size and terraces etc increased with the size of the tributary relative to the main stem effects of confluences on river morphology are conditioned by basin shape and channel network patterns and they include the nonlinear separation of geomorphically significant confluences in river networks other modifying factors include local network geometry and drainage density confluence related landforms i e fans bars terraces etc are predicted to be dominated by older features in headwaters and younger features downstream a pattern driven by the frequency and magnitude of floods and punctuated sediment supply that scale with watershed size index terms 1824 hydrology geomorphology 1625 1815 hydrology erosion and sedimentation 1821 hydrology floods 1848 hydrology networks keywords confluences fluvial geomorphology river networks

impact of confluence on hydrological and morphological characters of the trunk stream a study on the manu river of north east india tributaries play a significant role in changing flow structure of the main river through their additional discharge a study was conducted at the point of convergence of the river deo with the river manu using simple geospatial technique and field work to justify the hydrological and morphological changes in downstream of the confluence point the spatio temporal change of both the river channels for 10 km length in upstream and downstream of the confluence point was considered moreover field measurements and post field work were carried out to examine the spatial variation of hydrodynamic characteristics like flow velocity depth water discharge wetted perimeter and hydraulic radius of the selected stretches sieving method was applied for grain size analysis of river bed sediment samples the result revealed that both the aggradation and degradation processes were equally active in the upstream segment of the manu river but in downstream segment aggradation exceeded the degradation activity though all the hydrodynamic variables were boosted up in downstream except flow velocity the present research highlighted that the steeper gradient of the r deo had enhanced its competency to transport medium sized grains to the r manu where fine grains were commonly found moreover increased wetted perimeter in downstream specified more friction between channel bed and its flow consequent upon reduced flow velocity with extra sediment load accumulation

spatial and temporal structure of shear layer turbulence at a stream confluence 1 the shear layer that develops at the interface between converging flows is a prominent but poorly understood hydrodynamic feature at stream confluences to examine the spatial and temporal characteristics of turbulence and coherent turbulent structures within a shear layer three dimensional velocity measurements were obtained at a small stream confluence in illinois using two acoustic doppler velocimeters spaced at various separation distances results indicate that coherent structures can be readily identified through cross correlation analysis of the velocity time series for different measurement locations maximum correlations decrease relatively slowly over short separation distances but decrease rapidly for separation distances greater than about 2 times the flow depth convective velocities of coherent structures derived from the correlation analysis differ from local mean velocities and from spatially averaged mean velocities indicating that coherent structures evolve as they are transported along the shear layer a finding consistent with dye tracing experiments despite this evolution correlation and spectral analyses indicate that the frozen turbulence hypothesis holds for frequencies corresponding to length scales of at least some shear generated coherent vortices a domain of quasi two dimensional turbulence energy at low frequencies appears to be associated with large scale intrusions of fluid from one stream into the other along the mixing interface

a new dyke intrusion style for the mount etna may 2008 eruption modelled through continuous tilt and gps data after a recharge phase that began in 2007 on 13 may 2008 a new eruption started on mt etna volcano the final intrusion was very fast accompanied by a violent seismic swarm and marked by ground deformation recorded at permanent tilt and gps stations the violence of the eruptive event generated concern that the eruptive fissures might propagate downslope towards populated areas the ground deformation modelling explains both the mechanism of the intrusion as well as the attempt of the dyke to propagate in the shallower part of the northern sector of the volcano we show that the 2008 intrusion was characterized by a mechanism which is new and different to the ones modelled in previous eruptions following the path of the central conduit in the first part of the intrusion below 1 6 km and then breaking off towards the east in the last shallow part

debris flows as geomorphic agents in the huachuca mountains of southeastern arizona abstract numerous debris flows occurred in the huachuca mountains of southeastern arizona during the summer rainy season of 1988 in areas that were burned by a forest fire earlier in the summer debris flows occurred following a major forest fire in 1977 as well suggesting a causal link between fires and debris flows abundant evidence of older debris flows preserved along channels and in mountain front fans indicates that debris flows have occurred repeteadly during the late quaternary in this environment soil development in sequences of debris flow deposits indicates that debris flows probably recur over time intervals of several hundred to a thousand years in individual drainage basins in the study area surface runoff in the steep drainage basins of the huachuca mountains is greatly enhanced following forest fires as the hillslopes are denuded of their vegetative cover water and sediment eroded from the hillslope regolith are rapidly introduced into the upper reaches of tributary channels by widespread rilling and slope wash during rainfall events this influx of water and sediment destabilizes regolith previously accumulated in the channel triggering debris flows that scour the channel to bedrock in the upper reaches following a debris flow the scoured trapezoidally shaped channel gradually assumes a swale shape and the percentage of exposed bedrock declines as material is introduced from the slopes debris flows do a tremendous amount of work in a very short time however and are the major channel forming events where the tributary channels enter larger trunk channels the debris flows serve as the main source of very coarse sediment the local slope and coarse particle distribution of the trunk channel depend on the competence of water flows in the channel to transport the material introduced by debris flows where the smaller channels drain directly to the mountain front debris flows create extensive alluvial fans which dominate the morphology of the basin range boundary time intervals between debris flows in the drainage basins of the huachuca mountains are probably controlled by complex interactions among climate forest fires and slope processes fires destroy the protective vegetation that stabilizes the upper catchment slopes and inhibits erosion however not every fire that burns a catchment causes debris flows because sufficient weathered material must accumulate in the upper channel reaches to initiate a large debris flow if such accumulation has not occurred the material introduced to a channel following a forest fire will move only a short distance down the channel thus the episodic nature of debris flows probably depends on rates of slope weathering and erosion which are in turn controlled by climate both directly and through vegetation and forest fires

characterisation of a fractured reservoir using microearthquakes induced by hydraulic injections abstract microseismic activity is induced by a number of engineering activities which involve fluid injection or extraction in naturally fractured rock masses evidence collected during the last 15 years of hot dry rock hdr geothermal energy research has clearly indicated the very strong positive correlation between induced microearthquake locations and fluid flow paths within the fractured rock mass microseismic monitoring is now used regularly in hdr research as the only effective means of mapping hydraulic stimulations and monitoring hydromechanical processes during operation of the fractured reservoir many of the techniques that have been developed through hdr research are directly applicable to the hydrocarbon industry for the monitoring of hydraulic fracturing treatments waterflood operations and reservoir depletion this paper provides a brief introduction to the hydromechanical interactions that result in induced microseismicity and presents case studies from three european hdr sites where the monitoring of microseismic activity has proved vital in targeting production wells mapping the progress of stimulation and waterfloods and understanding the hydromechanical behaviour of the fractured system

three dimensional structure of flow at a confluence of river channels with discordant beds this paper presents three dimensional data of the mean and turbulent structure of flow collected at a natural confluence of rivers with discordant beds to 1 describe the three dimensional flow field of a natural junction of channels 2 assess the role of changes in bed morphology occurring during transport effective events on the structure of flow at a confluence and 3 examine how the three dimensional structure of flow varies with changes in the ratio of momentum flux between the two confluent streams three dimensional measurements of velocity were reconstructed from the measurements obtained with an array of four two component electromagnetic current meters six detailed velocity profiles were taken at five cross sections in a wide range of flow conditions the mean field of flow is characterised by 1 the acceleration of flow in the downstream portion of the post confluence channel but by lower velocities upstream in the mixing layer area 2 a stagnation zone at the apex of the junction 3 a zone of flow deviation and strong fluid upwelling close to the avalanche face and at the margin of the tributary mouth bar and 4 reduced velocities over the depositional bar at the downstream junction corner the position and extent of these zones vary with changes in the ratio of momentum flux very high intensity of turbulence peaks up to 50 and turbulent kinetic energy were observed in the mixing layer region distortion of the mixing layer characteristic of flow where bed discordance is present between the two tributary channels was evident from mean and turbulent flow data this field study suggests that the effects of bed discordance on flow sediment transport and the resultant bed morphology must be incorporated into conceptual and numeric models of these sites of complex flow

the effect of slope gradient and length on the parameters of a sediment transport equation for sheetwash abstract sheetwash sediment transport q s is often expressed by q s kq m s n where s is slope gradient and q water discharge for practical reasons the length rainfall intensity product li is often used in this equation as a surrogate for discharge the estimation of the exponents m and n is biased whenever complex hillslope shapes are used and when water discharge is not linearly related to li an experiment was designed to simultaneously measure water and sediment discharges on short straight hillslopes of similar material sloping at 5 11 and 27 natural rainfalls were used throughout this study the values obtained for the exponents m and n using all the available measurements are 1 5 and 0 9 respectively the value of m lies between the boundaries proposed in literature and the exponent n is slightly under the lower limit this experiment showed that water discharge is not linearly related to the length rainfall intensity product and that the value of m calibrated with q increases with slope gradient this result is explained by the return flow occuring at the base of steeper slopes and by the contribution of rainsplash to particle detachment consequently three points will be discussed in detail i the relevancy of using li rather than q to estimate m and n or to facilitate measurement and mainipulation in hillslope simulation models ii the implications on erosion processes and simulation of hillslope evolution of the systematic effect of gradient on water and sediment discharges and iii the problem of scale in the calibration of sediment transport equations

a gravitational spreading origin for the socompa debris avalanche abstract socompa volcano arguably provides the world s best exposed example of a sector collapse derived debris avalanche deposit new observations lead us to re interpret the origin of the sector collapse we show that it was triggered by failure of active thrust anticlines in sediments and ignimbrites underlying the volcano the thrust anticlines were a result of gravitational spreading of substrata under the volcano load about 80 of the resulting avalanche deposit is composed of substrata formerly residing under the volcano and in the anticlines the collapse scar can be traced up to 5 km from the edifice truncating two spreading related anticlines which collapsed in the event outcrops near the volcano preserve evidence of edifice material being carried along on top of mobilised substrata on the north side of the scar the avalanche motion was initially at right angles to the failure edge structural relations indicate that immediately prior to collapse the substrata disintegrated became effectively liquidised and were ejected from beneath the edifice catastrophic mobilisation of substrata probably resulted from breakdown of ignimbrite clasts and cement it may have occurred through progressive rock fracture by high shear strain during spreading material ejected from under socompa formed a layer on which volcanic edifice debris was transported this interpretation of events explains the puzzling observation that avalanche units with the lowest gravitational potential energy moved the furthest it can also account for avalanche motion normal to the collapse scar walls ignimbrites and other rock types probably capable of similar behaviour underlie many other volcanoes identification of spreading at other sites could therefore be a first step towards assessment of the potential for this style of catastrophic sector collapse

earthquake statistics at parkfield 1 stationarity of b values 1 in this paper paper 1 we quantitatively show that the heterogeneous pattern of b values of the gutenberg richter relation in the parkfield segment of the san andreas fault is to a high degree stationary for the past 35 years this prepares the grounds for paper 2 where we test the hypothesis that our model of spatially varying b values forecasts future seismicity more accurately than the approach in which one assumes a constant b value equal to the average regional value the method we develop to measure stationarity in the presence of spatial heterogeneity consists of the following steps 1 determine the optimal dimensions of the sampling volume by mapping b values with a wide range of radii and selecting the largest radius that gives the most detailed resolution of the b value heterogeneity along the selected fault segment the high data density permits the definition of the dominant dimensions of the seismotectonic fabric which is about 8 10 km 2 map the difference in b value between two periods selecting numerous possible catalog divisions 3 identify significant changes of b values by the utsu test utsu 1992 along the studied fault segment of 110 km length only one patch of radius 5 km showed a significant increase in b from below average to above as a function of time this change in b initiates around 1993 and thus correlates in space and time with a well documented episode of creep at depth using the derived spatial variable b value distributions we find that the highest probability for earthquakes with magnitude m 6 is in the middle mountain asperity where the 1966 parkfield earthquake nucleated and where all m 4 5 events in the data set occurred in contrast if only the regional average b value of 0 92 is used to predict future seismicity the creeping segment north of parkfield should produce major earthquakes most frequently a conclusion that contradicts the observations

structural features of an active strike slip fault on the sliding flank of mt etna italy abstract the strike slip pernicana fault system pfs was activated along the eastern flank of mt etna during an earthquake in september 2002 and one month later during the eruption of the ne rift structural and volcanological data suggest that the pfs was activated as a result of the slide of the ne flank of etna this activation produced surface fracturing on walls and on paved and unpaved roads the segments of the pfs arranged in a right stepping en echelon configuration show a an inverse proportion between length and frequency b fractal behavior over scales of 10 2 10 1 m between their length overstep and overlap c consistent strike with regard to their fault array and d a progressive eastward decrease in the displacement along the smallest faults the consistent geometric and kinematic features of the pfs related to the sector collapse of etna are similar to those of faults in strike slip settings

hydraulic geometry and changes in flow velocity at a river confluence with coarse bed material a survey of flows was conducted at a river confluence with coarse bed material bridges were installed on both tributaries at the confluence and farther downstream on the receiving stream at these stations flow velocities were measured over a dense grid for seven conditions ranging from very low flows to the bankfull stage hydraulic geometry relationships established at all four stations revealed that flow is accelerated through the confluence as stage rises at bankfull discharge average velocity is 1 6 times higher at the confluence than on either tributary flow acceleration occurs at and above intermediate flow stages and is concentrated at the centre of a linear pool located at the confluence the development of a zone of high shear stress is also associated with the cell of high flow velocity flow acceleration is dissipated at the exit of the pool where water surges over boulder ribs the acceleration is not related to the development of flow separation zones as observed by best and reid 1984 for wide junction angles nor is it explained by the reduction of the friction exerted by the banks acceleration is associated with the plan geometry of the confluence with the lateral slopes which permit water to converge and with a reduction in grain roughness at the confluence owing to the curvature of the tributary and to the acute angle of entry relative power losses through the confluence decrease with increasing stages

time averaged flow structure in the central region of a stream confluence previous process oriented field studies of stream confluences have focused mainly on fluvial dynamics at or immediately downstream of the location where the confluent flows enter the downstream channel this study examines in detail the spatial evolution of the time averaged downstream velocity cross stream velocity and temperature fields between the junction apex where the flows initially meet and the entrance to the downstream channel a well defined vertically oriented mixing interface exists within this portion of the confluence suggesting that lateral mixing of the incoming flows is limited the downstream velocity field near the junction apex is characterized by two high velocity cores separated by an intervening region of low velocity or recirculating fluid in the downstream direction the high velocity cores move inwards towards the mixing interface and high velocity fluid progressively extends downwards into a zone of scour resulting in an increase in flow velocity in the centre of the confluence the cross stream velocity field is dominated by flow convergence but also includes a component associated with a consistent pattern of secondary circulation this pattern is characterized by two surface convergent helical cells one on each side of the mixing interface the helical cells appear to be the mechanism by which high momentum fluid near the surface is advected downwards into the zone of scour for transport ineffective flows the dimensions and intensities of the cells are controlled by the momentum ratio of the confluent streams and by the extant bed morphology within the confluence although the flow structure of formative events was not measured directly in this study documented patterns of erosion and deposition within the central region of the confluence suggest that these events are dynamically similar to the measured flows except for the fact that formative flows are not constrained by but can reshape the bed morphology the results of this investigation are consistent with and augment previous findings on time averaged flow structure in the downstream portion of the confluence 1998 john wiley sons ltd

analysis of satellite and in situ ground deformation data integrated by the sistem approach the april 3 2010 earthquake along the pernicana fault mt etna italy case study abstract etna is known worldwide as one of the most studied and monitored active volcanoes flank instability along the eastern and southern portions of mt etna has been observed and measured thanks to geodetic networks and insar data analysis the spreading area is bordered to the north by the east west pernicana fault system pfs whose dynamics is often linked with the eruptive activity as recently observed during the 2002 2003 eruption a seismic sequence occurred from april 2 3 2010 along the pfs with very shallow a few hundred meters mainshocks of magnitude 4 3 and 3 6 explosions and ash emissions at the summit craters followed this swarm culminating a few days later april 7 8 despite their small magnitude the earthquakes caused damage and significant surface fracturing along the pfs in order to investigate and measure the deformations in the near field of the earthquakes the sistem integration approach has been exploited the sistem enabled integrating geodetic in situ ground deformation measurements gps and leveling with satellite interferometric measurements envisat and alos in order to obtain high resolution 3d displacement maps allowing to overcome the limitations of each technique and take advantage of the particular features of each of them the integrated ground deformation field evidenced that the medium behave elastically we inverted the sistem results using an optimization algorithm based on the genetic algorithm ga in order to model the kinematics of the pfs associated to seismic swarm the results are in good agreement with the field evidence and improved the knowledge on the kinematics of the pfs and mt etna s unstable flank

volcanic deformation and flank instability due to magmatic sources and frictional rheology the case of mount etna summary the overall picture of mount etna deformation emerging since a couple of decades of geodetic surveys shows effects of magma accumulation characterized by inflation deflation cycle accompanied by a sliding instability of the southeast flank whose manifestation is an increase in the horizontal deformation away from the volcano summit this is a very interesting case to test whether advanced models taking into account topography internal structure and frictional rheology may contribute to a better understanding of the complex interplay among mechanical response magmatic activity and gravitational load occurring in a volcanic system using finite element numerical models we make predictions of surface displacements associated with a simple expansion source and with a dike like vertical discontinuity a new methodology is developed to initialize the lithostatic stress field according to the material and geometrical complexities of the models considered our results show that while an amplification of the horizontal displacement can be easily obtained up to a maximum distance of 10 km from the source we have not been able to find any configuration to extend further this signal for the case of mount etna this suggests that the large horizontal displacements observed in the east flank along the coast cannot be directly related to magma accumulation below the volcano s summit

intrusive mechanism of the 2002 ne rift eruption at mt etna italy modelled using gps and gravity data summary microgravity and gps data collected at mt etna during a 1 yr time interval encompassing the 2002 ne rift eruption are analysed the common gps gravity profile traverses the summit area of mt etna between the summit craters about 3000 m and the northernmost tip of the eruptive fractures 2500 m displacements up to 2 m in both the horizontal and vertical directions and gravity variations up to 350 gal after having removed the effect of elevation changes observed during this period are among the largest ever recorded at etna displacements and gravity changes have been modelled separately assuming a magma influx from the summit feeder pipe to the ne rift models obtained through surface deformation data partially overlap with those explaining the gravity data but in general are narrower and extend to a greater depth the discrepancies found between gravity and deformation models are significant and can be regarded as due to the different structural features encountered by the intruding magma during its downslope propagation along the ne rift in particular on the grounds of our result we infer that both the eastward sliding of the east flank of the volcano and the curved shape of the ne rift influenced the 2002 intrusive process

the planform mobility of river channel confluences insights from analysis of remotely sensed imagery river channel confluences are widely acknowledged as important geomorphological nodes that control the downstream routing of water and sediment and which are locations for the preservation of thick fluvial deposits overlying a basal scour despite their importance there has been little study of the stratigraphic characteristics of river junctions or the role of confluence morphodynamics in influencing stratigraphic character and preservation potential as a result although it is known that confluences can migrate through time models of confluence geomorphology and sedimentology are usually presented from the perspective that the confluence remains at a fixed location this is problematic for a number of reasons not least of which is the continuing debate over whether it is possible to discriminate between scour that has been generated by autocyclic processes such as confluence scour and that driven by allocyclic controls such as sea level change this paper investigates the spatial mobility of river confluences by using the 40 year record of landsat imagery to elucidate the styles rates of change and areal extent over which large river confluence scours may migrate on the basis of these observations a new classification of the types of confluence scour is proposed and applied to the amazon and ganges brahmaputra meghna gbm basins this analysis demonstrates that the drivers of confluence mobility are broadly the same as those that drive channel change more generally thus in the gbm basin a high sediment supply large variability in monsoonal driven discharge and easily erodible bank materials result in a catchment where over 80 of large confluences are mobile over this 40 year window conversely this figure is 40 for the amazon basin these results highlight that i the potential areal extent of confluence scours is much greater than previously assumed with the location of some confluences on the jamuna brahmaputra river migrating over a distance of 20 times the tributary channel width ii extensive migration in the confluence location is more common than currently assumed and iii confluence mobility is often tied to the lithological and hydrological characteristics of the drainage basins that determine sediment yield

fast deformation processes and eruptive activity at mount etna italy the seismic and deformation patterns observed on mount etna before and during the 1991 1993 eruption the third largest since the seventeenth century in terms of lava volume are consistent with the regional tectonic framework of eastern sicily the pattern of the stress field acting on the intermediate and lower crust was defined at the local scale by focal mechanisms of microearthquakes occurring at depths between 10 and 25 km beneath the volcano they provide evidence for a strike slip compressional stress regime with the maximum compressive component acting approximately n s the fault plane solutions and the spatial and temporal distribution of seismicity indicate that usually sinistral shear ruptures occur along approximately ne sw trending fault zones while dip slip ruptures affect approximately nnw sse trending fault zones the latter include the avenues along which magma ascended during the 1991 1993 eruption seismic observations indicate a local inversion of the stress field acting on the upper crust depth 10 km underlying mount etna which was initiated less than 2 months before the eruptive event and disappeared with its end this is consistent with a local tensile regime that favored the magma ascent through the shallow crust the events preceding the eruption and accompanying its onset tilt anomalies and seismic swarms and those occurring shortly after its beginning a mainshock aftershock seismic sequence and associated coseismic tilts provide important evidence for understanding the dynamics of the two main volcano tectonic structures ne sw and nnw sse trending fault zones and associated intrusive mechanisms on etna the shape and location of the eruption feeding dike have been modeled from ground deformation data this approximately nnw sse modeled dike the seismicity and the position of the fractures are consistent with the regional stress field characterized by 1 oriented approximately n s the geophysical data presented and analyzed in the present paper strongly suggest an overall regional tectonic control as well as an active role for the intruding magma in the dynamics of the volcano

the influence of debris flows on channels and valley floors in the oregon coast range u s a debris flows are one of the most important processes which influence the morphology of channels and valley floors in the oregon coast range debris flows that initiate in bedrock hollows at heads of first order basins erode the long accumulated sediment and organic debris from the floors of headwater first and second order channels this material is deposited on valley floors in the form of fans levees and terraces in channels deposits of debris flows control the distribution of boulders the stochastic nature of sediment supply to alluvial channels by debris flows promotes cycling between channel aggradation which results in a gravel bed morphology and channel degradation which results in a mixed bedrock and boulder bed morphology temporal and spatial variability of channel bed morphology is expected in other landscapes where debris flows are an important process

review of seismological studies at mount etna this paper reports the present state of seismological research at mt etna a schematic classification of the earthquakes that occur on the volcano is proposed based on both seismogram and spectrum features we have made both focal solutions and estimates of earthquake source parameters stress drop values between 2 and 20 bars and small source dimensions the crust of etna thus appears as an extremely heterogeneous medium that does not permit great stress accumulation the coexistence of an extensional regime with an older and deeper compressive one seems confirmed at depths greater than about 7 km eruptive and seismic phenomena occur mainly along the principal structural trends of the volcano but often the directions of the eruptive fractures and the earthquake concentration during the same eruption do not coincide tectonics seem to play an important role in controlling seismo volcanic behaviour

debris avalanche deposits of the milo lahar sequence and the opening of the valle del bove on etna volcano italy previously undescribed debris avalanche deposits occur in two locations downslope from the open end of the valle del bove these outcrops comprise unstratified ungraded deposits of metre scale lava blocks in a matrix of weathered and fractured lava clasts the avalanche deposits are unconformably overlain by matrix to clast supported conglomerates representing debris flow and interbedded fluvial deposits that constitute most of the milo lahar sequence we present evidence that the milo lahar sequence which crops out just at the exit of the valle del bove formed during the opening and enlargement of this depression the presence of the avalanche deposits at the base of the milo lahar sequence indicates that catastrophic landslides were involved in the formation of the valle del bove the composition of lavas in the debris avalanche deposits is similar to that of most of the ellittico volcanic sequence exposed along the northern wall of the valle del bove radiocarbon dates of 8400 and 5300 years bp from the base and top respectively of the debris flow sequence indicate that the milo lahars are correlative with the exposed part of the chiancone deposit the basal lahars of the chiancone which contain lava blocks whose compositions partially overlap that of blocks in the avalanche deposits may have formed by water concentration in the distal end of the avalanche causing transformation to debris or alternatively by reworking of the avalanche deposit

planform channel dynamics and bank migration hazard assessment of a highly sinuous river in the north eastern zone of bangladesh rivers or watercourses in sylhet plain of bangladesh are very dynamic over time the aim of the present study is to investigate the channel planform dynamics the prediction of future lateral migration of the bankline and assessment of the hazards associated with manu river bangladesh the name manu river represents the river study reach from tripura india to moulvibazar bangladesh of 41 6 km channel contraction and expansion are very frequent in this river studies had shown that the sinuosity of the river varies from 1 36 to 2 48 also the meandering ratio of the river ranges from 0 32 to 1 67 satellite data were collected and analyzed to determine the planform characteristics meandering parameters and bankline migration rates between 1975 and 2013 the study is based on the landsat satellite imagery of 1975 1988 1999 2003 and 2005 and aerial photograph of 2009 and 2013 which were accumulated from united states geological survey specific critical bends have been elected where bank erosion and accretion rates were severe the purpose of this paper is to show the erosion rate behavior and pattern of upstream side of manu river bangladesh through the study period of 38 years from 1975 to 2013 by comparing its different geomorphological parameters this study has contributed to develop a model for bankline migration prediction of the forthcoming years and address the physical hazard to provide a risk surface present assessment has revealed that there are some critical regions where erosion would be up to 29 18 hectares in 2025

sediment transport and bed morphology at river channel confluences river channel confluences form important morphological elements of every river system being points at which rapid changes in flow sediment discharge and hydraulic geometry must be accommodated this article presents results of a quantitative investigation of sediment transport at channel confluences accomplished through both scaled laboratory flume simulation and complementary monitoring of a natural channel confluence bed morphology at channel confluences is characterized by three distinct elements avalanche faces at the mouth of each confluent channel a deep central scour and a bar within the separation zone formed at the downstream junction corner these elements are controlled predominantly by the confluence angle and the ratio of discharges between the tributary and mainstream channels as confluence angle and discharge ratio increase the sediment contributions from the confluent channels are progressively segregated in their paths through the junction with sediment being transported around rather than through the centre of the confluence this segregation of sediment loads is accompanied by the retreat of the main channel avalanche face from the confluence an increase in the scour depth a change in the orientation of the scour and an increase in the size of the separation zone bar field measurements closely replicate the flume simulation a model of sediment transport and bed morphology links these features to the fluid dynamics of these sites an understanding of confluence dynamics is important not only in considerations of channel morphology and design criteria but must form the basis for the interpretation of confluence sediments in the ancient record

static stress changes induced by the magmatic intrusions during the 2002 2003 etna eruption 1 the shallow intrusive processes that occurred during 2002 2003 etna eruption as well as the complex interaction between the magma intrusive events and the tectonic response of the volcano s eastern flank are investigated with numerical deformation modeling and the estimation of changes in the static coulomb stress ground deformation and volcanologic evidence clearly indicate a composite mechanism of intrusion on both the southern and northeastern flanks of the volcano geodetic data inversions have been based on a homogeneous elastic half space model although geological data and seismic tomography indicate that mt etna is elastically inhomogeneous and that rigidity layering and heterogeneities are likely to affect the magnitude and pattern of the deformation field to account for topographic effects as well as a complicated distribution of material properties we use the finite element method fem to provide a more realistic model the presence of medium heterogeneity strongly affects the amplitudes of the static stress changes seismicity matches well the areas of positive increase in the static stress caused by the intrusive events along the southern and northeastern flanks the changes in the state of stress generated by the southern dike produce an extensional stress field that favors magma propagation along the north east rift the highest seismic releases were associated with the activation of two fault systems the timpe fault system and the pernicana fault the static stress changes resolved onto these faults indicate that the magma intrusions on the southern and northeastern flanks encouraged these seismogenic structures to slip

flow and particle paths at a natural river confluence with coarse bed material abstract an investigation of flow and particle trajectories was conducted at a gravel bed confluence where the junction angle is gradually reduced from 60 to 20 as the tributary joins the main channel a shallow and elongated scour zone is present at the mouth of the tributary three flow stages ranging from 1 7 to 1 2 bankfull were recorded flow velocity vectors were measured from five bridges installed across the channels sediment transport paths were determined by following the progression of seeded marked particles through the confluence from may to october 1986 the results show that flow structure is responsive to stages at lower stages less than 1 3 bankfull flow velocity vectors are controlled by local bed topography and specifically by the steeper slopes around the scour zone at higher stages velocity vectors become aligned with the plan geometry of the confluence for all stages surface flow velocities are higher in the scour zone bed shear stress computed from the law of the wall for the deepest flow is higher at the bottom of the scour zone compared to its sides head and exit the trajectories of particles seeded on the tributary pass through the scour zone particles coming from the main channel displayed a dual pattern first moving laterally towards the scour zone early in the season then following paths that are consistent with the plan geometry of the confluence this shift in pattern reflects an increase in the peak discharges during the survey period these results highlight the role of stage in controlling the flow dynamics and particle paths at the confluence

stress transferred by the 1995 mw 6 9 kobe japan shock effect on aftershocks and future earthquake probabilities the kobe earthquake struck at the edge of the densely populated osaka kyoto corridor in southwest japan we investigate how the earthquake transferred stress to nearby faults altering their proximity to failure and thus changing earthquake probabilities we find that relative to the pre kobe seismicity kobe aftershocks were concentrated in regions of calculated coulomb stress increase and less common in regions of stress decrease we quantify this relationship by forming the spatial correlation between the seismicity rate change and the coulomb stress change the correlation is significant for stress changes greater than 0 2 1 0 bars 0 02 0 1 mpa and the nonlinear dependence of seismicity rate change on stress change is compatible with a state and rate dependent formulation for earthquake occurrence we extend this analysis to future mainshocks by resolving the stress changes on major faults within 100 km of kobe and calculating the change in probability caused by these stress changes transient effects of the stress changes are incorporated by the state dependent constitutive relation which amplifies the permanent stress changes during the aftershock period earthquake probability framed in this manner is highly time dependent much more so than is assumed in current practice because the probabilities depend on several poorly known parameters of the major faults we estimate uncertainties of the probabilities by monte carlo simulation this enables us to include uncertainties on the elapsed time since the last earthquake the repeat time and its variability and the period of aftershock decay we estimate that a calculated 3 bar 0 3 mpa stress increase on the eastern section of the arima takatsuki tectonic line attl near kyoto causes fivefold increase in the 30 year probability of a subsequent large earthquake near kyoto a 2 bar 0 2 mpa stress decrease on the western section of the attl results in a reduction in probability by a factor of 140 to 2000 the probability of a mw 6 9 earthquake within 50 km of osaka during 1997 2007 is estimated to have risen from 5 6 before the kobe earthquake to 7 11 afterward during 1997 2027 it is estimated to have risen from 14 16 before kobe to 16 22

modeling of alos and cosmo skymed satellite data at mt etna implications on relation between seismic activation of the pernicana fault system and volcanic unrest abstract we investigate the displacement induced by the 2 3 april 2010 seismic swarm the largest event being of ml 4 3 magnitude by means of dinsar data acquired over the volcano by the cosmo skymed and alos radar systems satellite observations combined with leveling data allowed us to perform a high resolution modeling inversion capable of fully capturing the deformation pattern and identifying the mechanism responsible for the pfs seismic activation the inversion results well explain high gradients in the radar line of sight displacements observed along the fault rupture the slip distribution model indicates that the fault was characterized by a prevailing left lateral and normal dip slip motion with no fault dilation and hence excludes that the april 2010 seismic swarm is a response to accommodate the stress change induced by magma intrusions but it is due to the tectonic loading possibly associated with sliding of the eastern flank of the volcano edifice these results provide a completely different scenario from that derived for the 22 september 2002 m3 7 earthquake along the pfs where the co seismic shear rupture was accompanied by a tensile mechanism associated with a first attempt of magma intrusion that preceded the lateral eruption occurred here a month later these two opposite cases provide hints into the behavior of the pfs between quiescence and unrest periods at etna and pose different implications for eruptive activity prediction and volcano hazard assessment the dense pattern of ground deformation provided by integration of data from short revisiting time satellite missions together with refined modeling for fault slip distribution can be exploited at different volcanic sites where the activity is controlled by volcano tectonic interaction processes for a timely evaluation of the impending hazards