observing earthquakes triggered in the near field by dynamic deformations we examine the hypothesis that dynamic deformations associated with seismic waves trigger earthquakes in many tectonic environments our analysis focuses on seismicity at close range within the aftershock zone complementing published studies of long range triggering our results suggest that dynamic triggering is not confined to remote distances or to geothermal and volcanic regions long unilaterally propagating ruptures may focus radiated dynamic deformations in the propagation direction therefore we expect seismicity triggered dynamically by a directive rupture to occur asymmetrically with a majority of triggered earthquakes in the direction of rupture propagation bilaterally propagating ruptures also may be directive and we propose simple criteria for assessing their directivity we compare the inferred rupture direction and observed seismicity rate change following 15 earthquakes m 5 7 to m 8 1 that occurred in california and idaho in the united states the gulf of aqaba syria guatemala china new guinea turkey japan mexico and antarctica nine of these mainshocks had clearly directive unilateral ruptures of these nine seven apparently induced an asymmetric increase in seismicity rate that correlates with the rupture direction the two exceptions include an earthquake preceded by a comparable magnitude event on a conjugate fault and another for which data limitations prohibited conclusive results similar but weaker correlations were found for the bilaterally rupturing earthquakes we studied although the static stress change also may trigger seismicity it and the seismicity it triggers are expected to be similarly asymmetric only if the final slip is skewed toward the rupture terminus for several of the directive earthquakes we suggest that the seismicity rate change correlates better with the dynamic stress field than the static stress change manuscript received 1 march 2002

inelastic off fault response and three dimensional dynamics of earthquake rupture on a strike slip fault 1 large dynamic stress off the fault incurs an inelastic response and energy loss which contributes to the fracture energy limiting the rupture and slip velocity using an explicit finite element method we model three dimensional dynamic ruptures on a vertical strike slip fault in a homogeneous half space the material is subjected to a pressure dependent drucker prager yield criterion initial stresses in the medium increase linearly with depth our simulations show that the inelastic response is confined narrowly to the fault at depth there the inelastic strain is induced by large dynamic stresses associated with the rupture front that overcome the effect of the high confining pressure the inelastic zone increases in size as it nears the surface for material with low cohesion 5 mpa the inelastic zone broadens dramatically near the surface forming a flowerlike structure the near surface inelastic strain occurs in both the extensional and the compressional regimes of the fault induced by seismic waves ahead of the rupture front under a low confining pressure when cohesion is large 10 mpa the inelastic strain is significantly reduced near the surface and confined mostly to depth cohesion however affects the inelastic zone at depth less significantly the induced shear microcracks show diverse orientations near the surface owing to the low confining pressure but exhibit mostly horizontal slip at depth the inferred rupture induced anisotropy at depth has the fast wave direction along the direction of the maximum compressive stress

constitutive relationships and physical basis of fault strength due to flash heating 1 we develop a model of fault strength loss resulting from phase change at asperity contacts due to flash heating that considers a distribution of contact sizes and nonsteady state evolution of fault strength with displacement laboratory faulting experiments conducted at high sliding velocities which show dramatic strength reduction below the threshold for bulk melting are well fit by the model the predicted slip speed for the onset of weakening is in the range of 0 05 to 2 m s qualitatively consistent with the limited published observations for this model earthquake stress drops and effective shear fracture energy should be linearly pressure dependent whereas the onset speed may be pressure independent or weakly pressure dependent on the basis of the theory flash weakening is expected to produce large dynamic stress drops small effective shear fracture energy and undershoot estimates of the threshold slip speed stress drop and fracture energy are uncertain due to poor knowledge of the average contact dimension shear zone thickness and gouge particle size at seismogenic depths

importance of small earthquakes for stress transfers and earthquake triggering 1 we estimate the relative importance of small and large earthquakes for static stress changes and for earthquake triggering assuming that earthquakes are triggered by static stress changes and that earthquakes are located on a fractal network of dimension d this model predicts that both the number of events triggered by an earthquake of magnitude m and the stress change induced by this earthquake at the location of other earthquakes increase with m as similar to 10 dm 2 the stronger the spatial clustering the larger the influence of small earthquakes on stress changes at the location of a future event as well as earthquake triggering if earthquake magnitudes follow the gutenberg richter law with b d 2 small earthquakes collectively dominate stress transfer and earthquake triggering because their greater frequency overcomes their smaller individual triggering potential using a southern california catalog we observe that the rate of seismicity triggered by an earthquake of magnitude m increases with m as 10 alpha m where alpha 1 05 0 05 we also find that the magnitude distribution of triggered earthquakes is independent of the triggering earthquake s magnitude m when alpha approximate to b small earthquakes are roughly as important to earthquake triggering as larger ones we evaluate the fractal correlation dimension d of hypocenters using two relocated catalogs for southern california the value of d measured for distances 0 1 r 5 km is d 1 54 for the shearer et al catalog and d 1 73 for the hauksson et al catalog the value of d reflects both the structure of the fault network and the nature of earthquake interactions by considering only those earthquake pairs with interevent times larger than 1000 days we can largely remove the effects of short term clustering then d approximate to 2 close to the value d 2 alpha 2 1 predicted by assuming that earthquake triggering is due to static stress the value d approximate to 2b implies that small earthquakes are as important as larger ones for stress transfers between earthquakes and that considering stress changes induced by small earthquakes should improve models of earthquake interactions

stress sensitivity of fault seismicity a comparison between limited offset oblique and major strike slip faults we present a new three dimensional inventory of the southern san francisco bay area faults and use it to calculate stress applied principally by the 1989 m 7 1 loma prieta earthquake and to compare fault seismicity rates before and after 1989 the major high angle right lateral faults exhibit a different response to the stress change than do minor oblique right lateral thrust faults seismicity on oblique slip faults in the southern santa clara valley thrust belt increased where the faults were unclamped the strong dependence of seismicity change on normal stress change implies a high coefficient of static friction in contrast we observe that faults with significant offset 50 100 km behave differently microseismicity on the hayward fault diminished where right lateral shear stress was reduced and where it was unclamped by the loma prieta earthquake we observe a similar response on the san andreas fault zone in southern california after the landers earthquake sequence additionally the offshore san gregorio fault shows a seismicity rate increase where right lateral oblique shear stress was increased by the loma prieta earthquake despite also being clamped by it these responses are consistent with either a low coefficient of static friction or high pore fluid pressures within the fault zones we can explain the different behavior of the two styles of faults if those with large cumulative offset become impermeable through gouge buildup coseismically pressurized pore fluids could be trapped and negate imposed normal stress changes whereas in more limited offset faults fluids could rapidly escape the difference in behavior between minor and major faults may explain why frictional failure criteria that apply intermediate coefficients of static friction can be effective in describing the broad distributions of aftershocks that follow large earthquakes since many of these events occur both inside and outside major fault zones

dislocation creep regimes in quartz aggregates abstract using optical and tem microscopy we have determined that three regimes of dislocation creep occur in experimentally deformed quartz aggregates depending on the relative rates of grain boundary migration dislocation climb and dislocation production within each regime a distinctive microstructure is produced due primarily to the operation of different mechanisms of dynamic recrystallization at lower temperatures and faster strain rates the rate of dislocation production is too great for diffusion controlled dislocation climb to be an effective recovery mechanism in this regime recovery is accommodated by strain induced grain boundary migration recrystallization with an increase in temperature or decrease in strain rate the rate of dislocation climb becomes sufficiently rapid to accommodate recovery in this regime dynamic recrystallization occurs by progressive subgrain rotation with a further increase in temperature or decrease in strain rate dislocation climb remains sufficiently rapid to accommodate recovery however in this regime grain boundary migration is rapid thus recrystallization occurs by both grain boundary migration and progressive subgrain rotation the identification of the three regimes of dislocation creep may have important implications for the determination of flow law parameters and the calibration of recrystallized grain size piezometers in addition the identification of a particular dislocation creep regime could be useful in helping to constrain the conditions at which a given natural deformation has occurred

the stress shadow problem in physics based aftershock forecasting does incorporation of secondary stress changes help main shocks are calculated to cast stress shadows across broad areas where aftershocks occur thus a key problem with stress based operational forecasts is that they can badly underestimate aftershock occurrence in the shadows we examine the performance of two physics based earthquake forecast models coulomb rate state crs based on coulomb stress changes and a rate and state friction law for their predictive power on the 1989 mw 6 9 loma prieta aftershock sequence the crs 1 model considers the stress perturbations associated with the main shock rupture only whereas crs 2 uses an updated stress field with stresses imparted by m 3 5 aftershocks including secondary triggering effects slightly improves predictability but physics based models still underestimate aftershock rates in locations of initial negative stress changes furthermore crs 2 does not explain aftershock occurrence where secondary stress changes enhance the initial stress shadow predicting earthquake occurrence in calculated stress shadow zones remains a challenge for stress based forecasts and additional triggering mechanisms must be invoked

a constitutive model for fault gouge deformation in dynamic rupture simulations 1 in the context of numerical simulations of elastodynamic ruptures we compare friction laws including the linear slip weakening sw law the dieterich ruina dr law and the free volume fv law the fv law is based on microscopic physics incorporating shear transformation zone stz theory which describes local nonaffine rearrangements within the granular fault gouge a dynamic state variable models dilation and compaction of the gouge and accounts for weakening and restrengthening in the fv law the principal difference between the fv law and the dr law is associated with the characteristic length scale l in the fv law lfv grows with increasing slip rate while in the dr law ldr is independent of slip rate the length scale for friction is observed to vary with slip velocity in laboratory experiments with simulated fault gouge suggesting that the fv law captures an essential feature of gouge filled faults in simulations of spontaneous elastodynamic rupture for equal energy dissipation the fv law produces ruptures with smaller nucleation lengths lower peak slip velocities and increased slip required for friction to fully weaken to steady sliding when compared to ruptures governed by the sw or dr laws we also examine generalizations of the dr and fv laws that incorporate rapid velocity weakening the rapid weakening laws produce self healing slip pulse ruptures for low initial shear loads for parameters which produce identical net slip in the pulses of each rapid weakening friction law the fv law exhibits a much shorter nucleation length a larger slip weakening distance and less frictional energy dissipation than corresponding ruptures obtained using the dr law

roughness of fault surfaces over nine decades of length scales 1 we report on the topographic roughness measurements of five exhumed faults and thirteen surface earthquake ruptures over a large range of scales from 50 m to 50 km we used three scanner devices lidar laser profilometer white light interferometer spanning complementary scale ranges from 50 m to 10 m to measure the 3 d topography of the same objects i e five exhumed slip surfaces vuache sillingy bolu corona heights dixie valley magnola a consistent geometrical property i e self affinity emerges as the morphology of the slip surfaces shows at first order a linear behavior on a log log plot where axes are fault roughness and spatial length scale covering five decades of length scales the observed fault roughness is scale dependent with an anisotropic self affine behavior described by four parameters two power law exponents h constant among all the faults studied but slightly anisotropic h 0 58 0 07 in the slip direction and h 0 81 0 04 perpendicular to it and two pre factors showing variability over the faults studied for larger scales between 200 m and 50 km we have analyzed the 2 d roughness of the surface rupture of thirteen major continental earthquakes these ruptures show geometrical properties consistent with the slip perpendicular behavior of the smaller scale measurements our analysis suggests that the inherent non alignment between the exposed traces and the along or normal slip direction results in sampling the slip perpendicular geometry although a data gap exists between the scanned fault scarps and rupture traces the measurements are consistent within the error bars with a single geometrical description i e consistent dimensionality over nine decades of length scales

fault slip distribution of two june 2000 m w 6 5 earthquakes in south iceland estimated from joint inversion of insar and gps measurements abstract we present the first detailed estimates of co seismic slip distribution on faults in the south iceland seismic zone sisz an area of bookshelf tectonics we have estimated source parameters for two m w 6 5 earthquakes in the sisz on june 17 and 21 2000 through a joint inversion of insar and gps measurements our preferred model indicates two simple 15 km long near vertical faults extending from the surface to approximately 10 km depth the geometry is in good agreement with the aftershock distribution the dislocations experienced pure right lateral strike slip reaching maxima of 2 6 m and 2 9 m for the june 17 and 21 events respectively we find that the distribution of slip with depth may be correlated to crustal layering with more than 80 of the total geometric moment release occurring in the uppermost 6 km according to the distributed slip model the middle and upper crust appears to be more apt to generate large displacements than the lower crust the geodetic estimates of seismic moments are 4 4 10 18 nm m w 6 4 and 5 0 10 18 nm m w 6 5 the total moment released by the two events equals that generated by several decades of plate motion in the area but is only a fraction of the moment accumulated in the area since the last major earthquake in 1912

earthquake ruptures with strongly rate weakening friction and off fault plasticity part 1 planar faults abstract observations demonstrate that faults are fractal surfaces with deviations from planarity at all scales we study dynamic rupture propagation on self similar faults having root mean square rms height fluctuations of order 10 3 to 10 2 times the profile length our 2d plane strain models feature strongly rate weakening fault friction and off fault drucker prager viscoplasticity the latter bounds otherwise unreasonably large stress concentrations in the vicinity of bends our choice of a cohesionless yield function prevents tensile stress states and thus fault opening a consequence of strongly rate weakening friction is the existence of a critical background stress level above which self sustaining rupture propagation in the form of self healing slip pulses first becomes possible around this level at which natural faults are expected to operate ruptures become extremely sensitive to fault roughness and exhibit substantial fluctuations in rupture velocity except for shallow inclinations of the maximum compressive stress to the fault less than about 20 the fluctuations are anticorrelated with the local fault slope these accelerations and decelerations of the rupture together with naturally emerging slip heterogeneity excite waves of all wavelengths and result in ground acceleration spectra that are flat at high frequency consistent with observed strong motion records

low frictional strength of quartz rocks at subseismic slip rates 1 laboratory experiments on rocks at low sliding velocity typically yield values of the friction coefficient of 0 6 0 85 here we demonstrate that an extraordinary decrease in friction coefficient accompanies sliding of room dry quartz rocks at rates faster than in most laboratory experiments but slower than seismic slip rates in some cases the friction coefficient decreases from low speed values by more than a factor of 3 this extraordinary weakening likely results from the formation of finely comminuted amorphous wet material on the sliding surface

structural anisotropy of normal fault surfaces abstract precise description of natural fault surfaces is indispensable to understanding the geometry mechanics and fluid transport properties of faults profiles of fault surfaces in the wasatch fault zone and oquirrh mountains utah are measured at 30 increments within the fault plane to determine the directional anisotropy of surface roughness at wavelengths between 10 3 m and 30 m and then compared with profiles of larger scale fault surfaces surface anisotropy and an increasing ratio of surface amplitude to wavelength are consistent with self affine fault topography at wavelengths between 1 mm and approximately 5 km fractal dimension of surface profiles generally decreases systematically as the angle to the slip direction increases directional anisotropy is described by an azimuthal scaling function k sin 0 or af af max 1 sin 1 where and af are the amplitude to wavelength ratio and anisotropy factor respectively at azimuth measured clockwise relative to slip direction within the fault surface and 0 is the amplitude to wavelength ratio parallel to slip direction k 90 0 is an anisotropy coefficient and increases systematically with spatial wavelength on the fault surface characterization of natural fault surfaces provides parameters such as fractal dimension d intercept log c of power spectra profile variance and variation in anisotropy factor af which are needed to generate fractal models of natural fault surfaces using spectral synthesis we generate sample models which illustrate the differences between fault surfaces characterized by constant versus azimuthally varying fractal dimension the latter model surfaces contain low amplitude corrugations superimposed on elongate ridges which parallel slip direction this surface texture resembles that of natural fault surfaces that refract across lithologic layering or are cut by secondary faults such as r and r shears

crustal earthquake bursts in california and japan their patterns and relation to volcanoes 1 we analyze 153 bursts of earthquakes in southern california and japan the burst patterns are similar in southern california and japan they fill a spectrum between swarm like sequences without obvious mainshocks and mainshocks with omori law abiding aftershocks in agreement with our previous work the swarm like sequences in japan have more events are more voluminous and tend to expand with time when compared to mainshock aftershock type sequences in both regions we find that the sequences starting with their largest events tend to be much shorter in duration bursts within 50 km of volcanoes are similar in character to those elsewhere except they tend to have longer duration we hypothesize that swarminess is a proxy for fluid pressure redistribution and or aseismic slip driving the seismicity bursts and conversely the mainshock aftershock style sequences have end member behavior that results solely from a cascade of elastic failures the complexity of the spatial seismicity distribution does not correlate with the style of swarm observed indicating that fluid conditions and composition are likely more influential than geometry in determining the patterns we observe

models of stochastic spatially varying stress in the crust compatible with focal mechanism data and how stress inversions can be biased toward the stress rate evidence suggests that slip in earthquakes and the resultant stress changes are spatially heterogeneous if crustal stress from past earthquakes is spatially heterogeneous then earthquake focal mechanisms should also be spatially variable we describe the statistical attributes of simulated earthquake catalogs including hypocenters and focal mechanisms for a spatially 3d time varying model of the crustal stress tensor with stochastic spatial variations it is assumed that temporal variations in stress are spatially smooth and are primarily caused by plate tectonics spatial variations in stress are assumed to be the result of past earthquakes and are independent of time for periods between major earthquakes it is further assumed that heterogeneous stress can be modeled as a stochastic process that is specified by an autocorrelation function synthetic catalogs of earthquake hypocenters and their associated focal mechanisms are produced by identifying the locations and times at which the second deviatoric stress invariant exceeds a specified limit the model produces a seismicity catalog that is spatially biased the only points in the grid that exceed the failure stress are those where the heterogeneous stress is approximately aligned with the stress rate this bias results in a focal mechanism catalog that appears less heterogeneous than the underlying stress orientations comparison of synthetic focal mechanism catalogs with catalogs of real earthquakes suggests that stress in the crust is heterogeneous stochastic parameters are estimated which generate distance dependent spatial variations in focal mechanisms similar to those reported by hardebeck 2006 for southern california

new empirical relationships among magnitude rupture length rupture width rupture area and surface displacement source parameters for historical earthquakes worldwide are compiled to develop a series of empirical relationships among moment magnitude m surface rupture length subsurface rupture length downdip rupture width rupture area and maximum and average displacement per event the resulting data base is a significant update of previous compilations and includes the additional source parameters of seismic moment moment magnitude subsurface rupture length downdip rupture width and average surface displacement each source parameter is classified as reliable or unreliable based on our evaluation of the accuracy of individual values only the reliable source parameters are used in the final analyses in comparing source parameters we note the following trends 1 generally the length of rupture at the surface is equal to 75 of the subsurface rupture length however the ratio of surface rupture length to subsurface rupture length increases with magnitude 2 the average surface displacement per event is about one half the maximum surface displacement per event and 3 the average subsurface displacement on the fault plane is less than the maximum surface displacement but more than the average surface displacement thus for most earthquakes in this data base slip on the fault plane at seismogenic depths is manifested by similar displacements at the surface log linear regressions between earthquake magnitude and surface rupture length subsurface rupture length and rupture area are especially well correlated showing standard deviations of 0 25 to 0 35 magnitude units most relationships are not statistically different at a 95 significance level as a function of the style of faulting thus we consider the regressions for all slip types to be appropriate for most applications regressions between magnitude and displacement magnitude and rupture width and between displacement and rupture length are less well correlated and have larger standard deviation than regressions between magnitude and length or area the large number of data points in most of these regressions and their statistical stability suggest that they are unlikely to change significantly in response to additional data separating the data according to extensional and compressional tectonic environments neither provides statistically different results nor improves the statistical significance of the regressions regressions for cases in which earthquake magnitude is either the independent or the dependent parameter can be used to estimate maximum earthquake magnitudes both for surface faults and for subsurface seismic sources such as blind faults and to estimate the expected surface displacement along a fault for a given size earthquake

changes in static stress on southern california faults after the 1992 landers earthquake the magnitude 7 5 landers earthquake of 28 june 1992 was the largest earthquake to strike california in 40 years the slip that occurs in such an earthquake would be expected to induce large changes in the static stress on neighbouring faults these changes in stress should in turn affect the likelihood of future earthquakes stress changes that load faults towards failure have been cited as the cause of small1 5 moderate6 and large7 earthquakes conversely those that relax neighbouring faults have been related to a decrease in seismicity5 here we use an elastic half space model8 to estimate the stress changes produced by the landers earthquake on selected southern california faults including the san andreas we find that the estimated stress changes are consistent with the triggering of four out of the five aftershocks with magnitude greater than 4 5 and that the largest changes 1 10 bar occurring on part of the san bernardino segment of the san andreas fault may have decreased the time to the next magnitude 8 earthquake by about 14 years

roughness of natural fault surfaces the roughness of fault surfaces is important in the mechanics of fault slip and could play a role in determining whether sliding occurs via earthquakes or fault creep we have made preliminary measurements of the power spectral density of several fault surfaces over the wavelength range from 10 5 to 1 m using field and laboratory scale profilimeters the fault surfaces are strongly anisotropic profiles parallel to the slip direction have amplitudes about one order of magnitude lower than those perpendicular to the slip direction over most of the wavelength interval measured fault roughness perpendicular to the slip direction is similar to the roughness of natural joints the greater smoothness in the slip direction presumably represents wear resulting from slip combining our data with previous measurements of the roughness spectrum of the san andreas fault shows that fault surfaces are fractal over nearly eleven orders of magnitude in wavelength

the equivalent strength of geometrical barriers to earthquakes we present a quantitative framework for evaluating the influence of non planar fault geometry on repeated seismic ruptures we model quasistatic ruptures on a non planar fault trace imbedded in a two dimensional elastic medium under in plane strain because of the presence of fault segments that are not parallel to the regional shear stress i e bends the apparent strength at a given point on the fault is not fixed but fluctuates with normal stress compressional features behave as increasingly strong barriers to fracture unless the stored normal stress is released in order to unlock the fault since slip on the fault itself cannot get rid of the normal stress this is achieved through the action of off fault morphological features such as secondary faulting folding and vertical motions that we introduce parametrically in the form of an aseismic relaxation the apparent strength of a fault bend will stabilize in a narrow interval of values after repeated ruptures characterized by a non dimensional hardness parameter whereby the relaxation rate is scaled by the tectonic loading rate on a fault structure having several small widely separated bends three families of events can be identified whose frequency and magnitude depend on the hardness relaxation parameter and the geometry small events that cluster in the tension zones of the bends intermediate size ruptures involving a single interbend segment and large ruptures that break through bends and link on or more interbend segments large multi segment events are most likely to occur for low values of the hardness i e fast relaxation and slow loading rate regions with compressional features act as barriers that stop most ruptures stress is stored at these sites until they themselves break and initiate motion on the smoother long reaches of the fault

dynamic rupture on a material interface with spontaneous generation of plastic strain in the bulk abstract we discuss 2d simulations of in plane ruptures on a fault between different solids in a model that includes dynamic generation of plastic strain off the fault the fault is governed by a regularized friction with a gradual response to abrupt changes of normal stress while plastic strain in the bulk is governed by a coulomb yielding criterion the occurrence of off fault damage stabilizes the slip velocity on the fault stable self sustaining ruptures propagate on the material interface as narrow unidirectional pulses in the direction of slip on the more compliant side of the fault plastic strain is generated only on the stiffer side of the fault the tensional quadrant in the direction of rupture propagation in a strip of approximately constant width that is correlated with the slip velocity on the fault simulations for various values of confining normal stress material contrast and cohesion in the bulk suggest that significant generation of off fault damage is limited to conditions that correspond to the top few kilometers of the crust the results are compatible with field observations of shallow asymmetric damage patterns in the structure of several large faults

aftershock asymmetry on a bimaterial interface to better understand the asymmetric distribution of microearthquake aftershocks along the central san andreas fault we study dynamic models of slip weakening ruptures on an interface separating differing elastic half spaces subshear ruptures grow as slightly asymmetric bilateral cracks with larger propagation velocities slip velocities and normal stress changes at the rupture front moving in the direction of slip of the medium with the lower shear wave speed the southeast front in the context of the san andreas when the se front encounters a stress barrier the tensile stress perturbation behind the rupture front continues forward and for a wide range of barrier strengths nucleates a dying slip pulse this slip pulse smooths the stress field and reduces the static stress change beyond the se front furthermore because the tensile stress that carried the slip pulse into the barrier is a purely dynamic phenomenon the se rupture front can be left far below the failure threshold while the nw front remains quite close to failure both mechanisms could contribute to the observed aftershock asymmetry formation of a robust slip pulse requires a peak tensile stress perturbation that approaches the nominal strength drop of the slip weakening law to achieve this while minimizing off fault damage requires either substantial velocity contrasts or small reductions in friction the simulations also show a pronounced asymmetry in the timescales over which barriers to the se and nw experience increasing stresses a result that has implications for the asymmetric distribution of subevents in compound earthquakes

postseismic relaxation driven by brittle creep a possible mechanism to reconcile geodetic measurements and the decay rate of aftershocks application to the chi chi earthquake taiwan we evaluate the effect of coseismic stress changes on the fault slip at midcrustal depth assuming a velocity strengthening brittle creep rheology we show that this model can help reconcile the time evolution of afterslip as measured from geodesy with aftershocks decay we propose an analytical expression for slip of the brittle creeping fault zone bcfz that applies to any dynamic or static stress perturbation including shear stress and normal stress changes the model predicts an initial logarithmic increase of slip with time postseismic slip rate decays over a characteristic time t r a that does not depend on the amplitude of the stress perturbation and it asymptotically joins the long term creep imposed by interseismic stress buildup given that the seismicity rate might be considered proportional to the sliding velocity of the bcfz the model predicts a decay rate of aftershocks that follows omori s law with a mathematical formalism identical to that of dieterich 1994 although based on a different mechanical rationale our model also differs from dieterich s model in that it requires that aftershock sequences and deep afterslip as constrained from geodetic measurements should follow the same temporal evolution we test this for the 1999 chi chi earthquake m w 7 6 and find that both sets of data are consistent with a model of afterslip due to the response of the bcfz the inferred relaxation time t r 8 5 years requires a value for a log v being the coefficient of friction in the range between 1 3 10 3 and 10 2

correlation of earthquake source parameters inferred from dynamic rupture simulations 1 we analyzed 315 dynamic strike slip rupture models computed up to 5 0 hz to get a quantitative understanding of the correlation and amplitude distributions of parameters describing the earthquake source such as slip and rupture velocity to account for the epistemic uncertainty of the problem we constructed a database of dynamic ruptures computed by ourselves and other authors this database contains ruptures computed using different models of initial stress peak stress and critical slip weakening distance using the set of computed ruptures we constructed probability density functions pdfs for the amplitude distributions of the source parameters and for the correlation between the source parameters we tried to extract parameter pairs that showed a small variability in the spatial correlation given the large epistemic uncertainty in the input we only analyzed the areas on the fault with subshear propagation speed the principal findings are as follows 1 final slip amplitude does not show correlation with the local rupture velocity 2 final slip amplitude correlates well with risetime 3 rupture velocity correlates well with peak slip rate and the duration of the impulsive part of the slip rate function 4 the pdf of rupture velocity risetime and peak slip rate depends on the distance from the nucleation zone 5 fracture energy is not the single controlling factor for the rupture velocity the slope of the linear slip weakening curve has a significant effect on the rupture velocity 6 the crack length length that is slipping at a given time decreases with the distance from the nucleation zone

simulation of tensile crack generation by three dimensional dynamic shear rupture propagation during an earthquake 1 as there is no evidence that cracks are created directly in modes ii and iii shear cracks probably occur only along a weakness plane as in a preexisting fault mode i fracture therefore may be an important factor in crack formation during shallow earthquakes a three dimensional shear dynamic rupture process was simulated on the assumption that shear slip occurs only in a preexisting fault and the possibility of introducing new internal cracks that propagate under tensile stress as a consequence of the dynamic process of shear slip propagation the discrete element method dem was used to solve this problem because it can introduce internal tensile cracks the simple slip weakening model was used as the friction law on the preexisting fault for shear rupture propagation for new tensile cracks fracture follows classical griffith theory when the critical value for tensile fracture surface energy is reached the proposed model was used to simulate the rupture process of a strike slip shallow fault results show that the generation of new cracks is affected by rupture directivity in terms of the hypocenter and asperity location as well as by fault geometry with respect to the free surface cracks develop a flower like structure that surrounds the preexisting fault when the asperity is located at less than a certain depth the flower like structure that originates from the top of the fault reaches the free surface we consider that this is the mechanism for forming the flower structure near surface during a strike slip shallow earthquake

small earthquakes tectonic forces earthquake scaling and frequency of occurrence relations require that small earthquakes be just as important as larger ones in redistributing the forces that drive relative displacements across active faults of any dimension including plate boundaries

crustal earthquake instability in relation to the depth variation of frictional slip properties recent stability studies using constitutive relations of the type found by dieterich ruina and others to describe frictional slip of rocks in the laboratory have provided a new explanation of the depth cutoff of shallow crustal earthquakes the class of friction laws discussed has the property that the sliding stress depends on normal stress temperature slip rate and slip history for sliding at a fixed slip rate v and fixed environment e g normal stress temperature etc the shear strength evolves toward a steady state value ss v stability analysis show that for d ss v dv 0 velocity strengthening implies stable steady state sliding at least for a broad class of constitutive laws more fully described in the paper experiments by dieterich and by tullis and weeks on westerly granite with mature sliding surfaces indicate that d ss v dv is negative at room temperature whereas higher temperature experiments by stesky show that d ss v dv becomes positive above approximately 300 c therefore in the case of the earth where temperature increases with depth the above observations seem to suggest that the depth cutoff of crustal earthquake activity can be understood in terms of the variation of the frictional response with depth from a regime with d ss v dv 0 this is not inconsistent with but rather refines the suggestion by sibson and others that the depth cutoff is due to a transition from brittle friction to ductile flow further our results show definitively that the shallow depth confinement of seismicity is compatible with a model in which deformation is localized to a fault zone extending well below the seismogenic depth the depth confinement does not require a model showing transition to a zone of broadly distributed creep flow beneath the seismogenic zone following mavko a two dimensional quasi static strike slip fault model is analyzed but using different numerical procedures and a depth variation of frictional properties based on the laboratory data mentioned above and the lachenbruch sass depth variation of temperature for the san andreas fault the resulting predictions of such features as the confinement of crustal earthquakes to shallow depths the development of locked patches the recurrence time for the seismic cycle the seismic stress drop and displacement etc are generally in agreement with the observed characteristics of large scale strike slip earthquakes along the san andreas fault calculations based on the laboratory data predict for example that stick slip nucleates around 5 7 km that large seismic motion occurs around the nucleation depth and above but diminishes gradually to zero at 13 15 km depths that rapid postseismic creep occurs over another 3 4 km depth and that at greater depths steady slip consistent with the average plate velocity is only modestly perturbed by the earthquakes occurring above the most uncertain parameter is the slip weakening distance l for evolution of fault surface state we illustrate how features of the predicted earthquake cycles vary with l over the range for which calculations are feasible

comment on models of stochastic spatially varying stress in the crust compatible with focal mechanism data and how stress inversions can be biased toward the stress rate by deborah elaine smith and thomas h heaton smith and heaton 2011 propose a model in which stress in the crust is fractal like and highly variable on a range of length scales including short length scales of 1 km smith and heaton 2011 motivate the need for stress heterogeneity on short length scales by citing observations such as short length scale changes in stress directions inferred from borehole breakouts short length scale changes in earthquake slip and the success of numerical models that include short wavelength stress heterogeneity the heterogeneous part of the stress field in their model is more than twice as large as the homogeneous part the stress field in this model frequently reverses itself over short distances as can be seen in figure 14a of smith and heaton 2011 the modeled stress field contains at least 10 areas of reversed shear stress direction over the length of a 100 km long profile with the length of the reversed areas ranging from 1 to 5 km this model makes specific predictions about the orientations and heterogeneity of earthquake focal mechanisms smith and heaton 2011 attempt to validate this heterogeneous stress model using observations of earthquake focal mechanism variability from hardebeck 2006 they then demonstrate that the model predicts a bias in the orientations of earthquake focal mechanisms which are biased away from the background stress and toward the stressing rate they suggest the focal mechanism bias in this model invalidates the large body of work over the last several decades that has inferred stress orientations from the inversion of earthquake focal mechanisms the question of whether or not the smith and heaton 2011 model is applicable to the real earth is therefore important not only for understanding spatial stress variability but also for evaluating the numerous studies that have inferred crustal stress orientations from earthquake focal mechanisms e g as compiled by heidbach et al 2008

source properties of dynamic rupture pulses with off fault plasticity large dynamic stresses near earthquake rupture fronts may induce an inelastic response of the surrounding materials leading to increased energy absorption that may affect dynamic rupture we systematically investigate the effects of off fault plastic energy dissipation in 2 d in plane dynamic rupture simulations under velocity and state dependent friction with severe weakening at high slip velocity we find that plasticity does not alter the nature of the transitions between different rupture styles decaying versus growing pulse like versus crack like and subshear versus supershear ruptures but increases their required background stress and nucleation size we systematically quantify the effect of amplitude and orientation of background shear stresses on the asymptotic properties of self similar pulse like ruptures peak slip rate rupture speed healing front speed slip gradient and the relative contribution of plastic strain to seismic moment peak slip velocity and rupture speed remain bounded from fracture mechanics arguments we derive a nonlinear relation between their limiting values appropriate also for crack like and supershear ruptures at low background stress plasticity turns self similar pulses into steady state pulses for which plastic strain contributes significantly to the seismic moment we find that the closeness to failure of the background stress state is an adequate predictor of rupture speed for relatively slow events our proposed relations between state of stress and earthquake source properties in the presence of off fault plasticity may contribute to the improved interpretation of earthquake observations and to pseudodynamic source modeling for ground motion prediction

stress triggering in thrust and subduction earthquakes and stress interaction between the southern san andreas and nearby thrust and strike slip faults 1 we argue that key features of thrust earthquake triggering inhibition and clustering can be explained by coulomb stress changes which we illustrate by a suite of representative models and by detailed examples whereas slip on surface cutting thrust faults drops the stress in most of the adjacent crust slip on blind thrust faults increases the stress on some nearby zones particularly above the source fault blind thrusts can thus trigger slip on secondary faults at shallow depth and typically produce broadly distributed aftershocks short thrust ruptures are particularly efficient at triggering earthquakes of similar size on adjacent thrust faults we calculate that during a progressive thrust sequence in central california the 1983 mw 6 7 coalinga earthquake brought the subsequent 1983 mw 6 0 nunez and 1985 mw 6 0 kettleman hills ruptures 10 bars and 1 bar closer to coulomb failure the idealized stress change calculations also reconcile the distribution of seismicity accompanying large subduction events in agreement with findings of prior investigations subduction zone ruptures are calculated to promote normal faulting events in the outer rise and to promote thrust faulting events on the periphery of the seismic rupture and its downdip extension these features are evident in aftershocks of the 1957 mw 9 1 aleutian and other large subduction earthquakes we further examine stress changes on the rupture surface imparted by the 1960 mw 9 5 and 1995 mw 8 1 chile earthquakes for which detailed slip models are available calculated coulomb stress increases of 2 20 bars correspond closely to sites of aftershocks and postseismic slip whereas aftershocks are absent where the stress drops by more than 10 bars we also argue that slip on major strike slip systems modulates the stress acting on nearby thrust and strike slip faults we calculate that the 1857 mw 7 9 fort tejon earthquake on the san andreas fault and subsequent interseismic slip brought the coalinga fault 1 bar closer to failure but inhibited failure elsewhere on the coast ranges thrust faults the 1857 earthquake also promoted failure on the white wolf reverse fault by 8 bars which ruptured in the 1952 mw 7 3 kern county shock but inhibited slip on the left lateral garlock fault which has not ruptured since 1857 we thus contend that stress transfer exerts a control on the seismicity of thrust faults across a broad spectrum of spatial and temporal scales

aftershocks halted by static stress shadows the role of permanent versus transient crustal stress changes in triggering earthquakes is debated analysis of the stress imparted by the joshua tree and nearby landers earthquakes in california in 1992 implies that a permanent drop in stress can halt aftershocks so such static stress changes should be incorporated into seismic hazard assessments

distribution of seismicity across strike slip faults in california 1 the distribution of seismicity about strike slip faults provides measurements of fault roughness and damage zone width in california seismicity decays with distance from strike slip faults according to a power law 1 x2 d2 2 this scaling relation holds out to a fault normal distance x of 3 6 km and is compatible with a rough fault loading model in which the inner scale d measures the half width of a volumetric damage zone and the roll off rate is governed by stress variations due to fault roughness according to dieterich and smith s 2 d simulations approximates the fractal dimension of along strike roughness near fault seismicity is more localized on faults in northern california nocal d 60 20 m 1 65 05 than in southern california socal d 220 40 m 1 16 05 the parkfield region has a damage zone half width d 120 30 m consistent with the safod drilling estimate its high roll off rate 2 30 25 indicates a relatively flat roughness spectrum k 1 versus k 2 for nocal k 3 for socal our damage zone widths the first direct estimates averaged over the seismogenic layer can be interpreted in terms of an across strike fault core multiplicity that is 1 in nocal 2 at parkfield and 3 in socal the localization of seismicity near individual faults correlates with cumulative offset seismic productivity and aseismic slip consistent with a model in which faults originate as branched networks with broad multicore damage zones and evolve toward more localized lineated features with low fault core multiplicity thinner damage zones and less seismic coupling our results suggest how earthquake triggering statistics might be modified by the presence of faults

multicycle dynamics of nonplanar strike slip faults 1 we perform two dimensional dynamic models of strike slip faults with a change in strike a bend over multiple earthquake cycles to examine the long term effects of nonplanar fault geometry a viscoelastic model a proxy for off fault deformation and tectonic loading is introduced for the interseismic process to avoid pathological stress buildup around the bend a finite element method with an elastodynamic model is used to simulate dynamic earthquake ruptures we find that stresses near the bend differ strongly from the regional stress field and that the fault develops a relatively steady state in which the stress level and the event pattern on the fault are stable reduced normal stress on the dilatational side and increased normal stress on the compressive side of the bend during dynamic ruptures result in the bend serving as an initiation and or a termination point s for rupture typical events on such a fault consist of two classes unilateral events that rupture only the favorable segment and bilateral events that rupture the favorable segment and part of or the entire unfavorable segment in the latter class of events a time delay in rupture around the bend results from a high yield stress on the compressive side of the bend other effects of the bent fault geometry include higher displacement on the inward wall than on the outward wall higher slip on the more favorable segment than on the less favorable segment and a large slip velocity on the compressive side of the bend

sensitivity of static stress calculations to the earthquake slip distribution 1 the apparent strong correlation between coulomb stress changes and the spatial distribution of aftershocks suggests the possibility of making near real time estimations of areas at risk of experiencing off fault aftershocks in order to do this in practice a number of issues must first be addressed including the extent to which the main shock slip must be known in detail before a meaningful stress map can be constructed here we investigate this issue by constructing a time ordered sequence of slip solutions for the landers earthquake computing coulomb stress changes for each solution and quantitatively comparing the stress field with the observed aftershocks by 1 resolving the coulomb stress change onto the aftershock nodal planes and calculating the percentage of events consistent with triggering and 2 constructing a two dimensional map of coulomb stress and computing the correlation coefficient between the positive and negative areas and the locations of the aftershocks we find that slip solutions based on empirical relations and either focal mechanism or moment tensor data produce stress fields inconsistent with the observed spatial distribution of aftershocks whereas slip solutions incorporating the correct rupture geometry but greatly simplified slip produce stress fields consistent with the aftershock distribution when very near fault events are excluded we further find that resolving stress perturbations onto earthquake nodal planes and computing the percentage of events experiencing positive coulomb stress provides a poor measure of success because of the limited range of structures on which events occur and the compatibility of the main shock stress field with these structures our results support the hypothesis that coulomb stress changes affect the spatial distribution of aftershocks and suggest that meaningful calculations of coulomb stress can be made as soon as an earthquake s rupture geometry is well constrained

near source ground motion from steady state dynamic rupture pulses 1 ground motion from two dimensional steady state dynamic ruptures is examined for both subshear and supershear rupture velocities synthetic seismograms demonstrate that coherent high frequency information about the source process rapidly attenuates with distance from the fault for subshear ruptures such records provide almost no resolution of the spatial extent of the stress breakdown zone at supershear speeds s waves radiate away from the fault preserving the full source spectrum and carrying an exact history of the slip velocity on both the fault parallel and fault normal components of motion whose amplitudes are given by a function of rupture speed that vanishes at times the s wave speed the energy liberated from the strain field by the passage of a supershear rupture is partitioned into fracture energy dissipated within the fault zone and far field s wave radiation the partition depends on both the rupture velocity and the size of the breakdown zone

quantifying near field and off fault deformation patterns of the 1992 mw 7 3 landers earthquake coseismic surface deformation in large earthquakes is typically measured using field mapping and with a range of geodetic methods e g insar lidar differencing and gps current methods however either fail to capture patterns of near field coseismic surface deformation or lack preevent data consequently the characteristics of off fault deformation and the parameters that control it remain poorly understood we develop a standardized method to fully measure the surface near field coseismic deformation patterns at high resolution using the cosi corr program by correlating pairs of aerial photographs taken before and after the 1992 m w 7 3 landers earthquake cosi corr offers the advantage of measuring displacement across the entire zone of surface deformation and over a wider aperture than that available to field geologists for the landers earthquake our measured displacements are systematically larger than the field measurements indicating the presence of off fault deformation we show that 46 of the total surface displacement occurred as off fault deformation over a mean deformation width of 154 m the magnitude and width of off fault deformation along the rupture is primarily controlled by the macroscopic structural complexity of the fault system with a weak correlation with the type of near surface materials through which the rupture propagated both the magnitude and width of distributed deformation are largest in stepovers bends and at the southern termination of the surface rupture we find that slip along the surface rupture exhibits a consistent degree of variability at all observable length scales and that the slip distribution is self affine fractal with dimension of 1 56

mechanism diversity of the loma prieta aftershocks and the mechanics of mainshock aftershock interaction the diverse aftershock sequence of the 1989 loma prieta earthquake is inconsistent with conventional models of mainshock aftershock interaction because the aftershocks do not accommodate mainshock induced stress changes instead the sense of slip of the aftershocks is consistent with failure in response to a nearly uniaxial stress field in which the maximum principal stress acts almost normal to the mainshock fault plane this orientation implies that i stress drop in the mainshock was nearly complete ii mainshock induced decreases of fault strength helped were important in controlling the occurrence of after shocks and iii mainshock rupture was limited to those sections of the fault with preexisting shear stress available to drive fault slip

high velocity frictional properties of gabbro high velocity friction experiments have been performed on a pair of hollow cylindrical specimens of gabbro initially at room temperature at slip rates from 7 5 mm s to 1 8 m s with total circumferential displacements of 125 to 174 m and at normal stresses to 5 mpa using a rotary shear high speed friction testing machine steady state friction increases slightly with increasing slip rate at slip rates to about 100 mm s velocity strengthening and it decreases markedly with increasing slip rate at higher velocities velocity weakening steady state friction in the velocity weakening regime is lower for the non melting case than the frictional melting case due perhaps to severe thermal fracturing a very large peak friction is always recognized upon the initiation of visible frictional melting presumably owing to the welding of fault surfaces upon the solidification of melt patches frictional properties thus change dramatically with increasing displacement at high velocities and such a non linear effect must be incorporated into the analysis of earthquake initiation processes

dynamic seismic ruptures on melting fault zones 1 we present a physical model that describes the behavior of spontaneous earthquake ruptures dynamically propagating on a fault zone and that accounts for the presence of frictional melt produced by the sliding surfaces first we analytically derive the solution for the temperature evolution inside the melt layer which generalizes previous approximations then we incorporate such a solution into a numerical code for the solution of the elastodynamic problem when a melt layer is formed the linear slip weakening law initially governing the fault and relying on the coulomb friction is no longer valid therefore we introduce on the fault a linearly viscous rheology with a temperature dependent dynamic viscosity we explore through numerical simulations the resulting behavior of the traction evolution in the cohesive zone before and after the transition from coulomb friction and viscous rheology the predictions of our model are in general agreement with the data from exhumed faults we also find that the fault after undergoing the breakdown stress drop controlled by the slip weakening constitutive equation experiences a second traction drop controlled by the exponential weakening of fault resistance due to the viscous rheology this further drop enhances the instability of the fault increasing the rupture speeds the peaks in fault slip velocity and the fracture energy density

effects of low velocity fault zones on dynamic ruptures with nonelastic off fault response 1 using a finite element method for elastoplastic dynamic analysis we examine the effects of a low velocity fault zone lvfz surrounding a fault on a spontaneous dynamic earthquake rupture a mohr coulomb failure criterion is used to characterize nonelastic off fault response to earthquake ruptures we find that the presence of a lvfz alters the distribution of off fault plastic strain and results in larger final slip and larger peak slip velocities on the fault these effects show a lvfz width dependency a supershear relative to the shear wave velocity of country rocks rupture transition is observed with a lvfz width of 400 m or larger up to 2 km the presence of a lvfz increases the amplitude of ground shaking at stations within the lvfz and induces high frequency oscillations at stations within and near the lvfz

spatial and temporal distribution of slip for the 1992 landers california earthquake we have determined a source rupture model for the 1992 landers earthquake m w 7 2 compatible with multiple data sets spanning a frequency range from zero to 0 5 hz geodetic survey displacements near field and regional strong motions broadband teleseismic waveforms and surface offset measurements have been used explicitly to constrain both the spatial and temporal slip variations along the model fault surface our fault parameterization involves a variable slip multiple segment finite fault model which treats the diverse data sets in a self consistent manner allowing them to be inverted both independently and in unison the high quality data available for the landers earthquake provide an unprecedented opportunity for direct comparison of rupture models determined from independent data sets that sample both a wide frequency range and a diverse spatial station orientation with respect to the earthquake slip and radiation pattern in all models consistent features include the following 1 similar overall dislocation patterns and amplitudes with seismic moments of 7 to 8 10 26 dyne cm seismic potency of 2 3 to 2 7 km 3 2 very heterogeneous unilateral strike slip distributed over a fault length of 65 km and over a width of at least 15 km though slip is limited to shallower regions in some areas 3 a total rupture duration of 24 sec and an average rupture velocity of 2 7 km sec and 4 substantial variations of slip with depth relative to measured surface offsets the extended rupture length and duration of the landers earthquake also allowed imaging of the propagating rupture front with better resolution than for those of prior shorter duration strike slip events our imaging allows visualization of the rupture evolution including local differences in slip durations and variations in rupture velocity rupture velocity decreases markedly at shallow depths as well as near regions of slip transfer from one fault segment to the next as rupture propagates northwestward along the multiply segmented fault length the rupture front slows as it reaches the northern limit of the johnson valley landers faults where slip is transferred to the southern homestead valley fault an abrupt acceleration is apparent following the transfer this process is repeated and is more pronounced as slip is again passed from the northern homestead valley fault to the emerson fault although the largest surface offsets were observed at the northern end of the rupture our modeling indicates that substantial rupture was also relatively shallow less than 10 km in this region

forecasting the evolution of seismicity in southern california animations built on earthquake stress transfer 1 we develop a forecast model to reproduce the distribution of main shocks aftershocks and surrounding seismicity observed during 1986 2003 in a 300 310 km area centered on the 1992 m 7 3 landers earthquake to parse the catalog into frames with equal numbers of aftershocks we animate seismicity in log time increments that lengthen after each main shock this reveals aftershock zone migration expansion and densification we implement a rate state algorithm that incorporates the static stress transferred by each m 6 shock and then evolves coulomb stress changes amplify the background seismicity so small stress changes produce large changes in seismicity rate in areas of high background seismicity similarly seismicity rate declines in the stress shadows are evident only in areas with previously high seismicity rates thus a key constituent of the model is the background seismicity rate which we smooth from 1981 to 1986 seismicity the mean correlation coefficient between observed and predicted m 1 4 shocks the minimum magnitude of completeness is 0 52 for 1986 2003 and 0 63 for 1992 2003 a control standard aftershock model yields 0 54 and 0 52 for the same periods four m 6 0 shocks struck during the test period three are located at sites where the expected seismicity rate falls above the 92 percentile and one is located above the 75 percentile the model thus reproduces much but certainly not all of the observed spatial and temporal seismicity from which we infer that the decaying effect of stress transferred by successive main shocks influences seismicity for decades finally we offer a m 5 earthquake forecast for 2005 2015 assigning probabilities to 324 10 10 km cells

impact of the receiver fault distribution on aftershock activity 1 aftershock models are usually based either on purely empirical relations ignoring the physical mechanism or on deterministic calculations of stress changes on a predefined receiver fault orientation here we investigate the effect of considering more realistic fault systems in models based on static coulomb stress changes for that purpose we perform earthquake simulations with elastic half space stress interactions rate and state dependent frictional earthquake nucleation and extended ruptures with heterogeneous fractal slip distributions we find that the consideration of earthquake nucleation on multiple receiver fault orientations does not influence the shape of the temporal omori type aftershock decay but changes significantly the predicted spatial patterns and the total number of triggered events so called stress shadows with decreased activity almost vanish and activation decays continuously with increasing distance from the main shock rupture the total aftershock productivity which is shown to be almost independent of the assumed background rate increases significantly if multiple receiver fault planes exist the application to the 1992 m7 3 landers california aftershock sequence indicates a good agreement with the locations and the total productivity of the observed directly triggered aftershocks

stress and deformation along wavy frictional faults locally inhomogeneous stress states are expected along faults owing to slip on geometrically irregular fault surfaces we use an analytical model of elastic deformation along a wavy frictional fault to evaluate the variation in local stress state as a function of surface roughness elastic modulus slip coefficient of friction and far field stress the total stress state along the fault may be described by the sum of a basic stress component resulting from frictional slip on a planar fault surface and a perturbed stress component resulting from the presence of roughness roughness produces a variation in normal stress across the fault surface and assuming roughness and modulus appropriate to crustal faults the normal stress should be reduced to a near zero magnitude locally such that separation of fault walls is likely the large variation in normal stress along the fault surface resulting from fault roughness may be responsible in part for complexity in moment release during large earthquakes and for lateral variation in seismic coupling along faults the variation in principal stress orientations and magnitudes along a fault increases with a decrease in the coefficient of friction of the fault the location and size of regions with a high likelihood for brittle failure depend on the orientation of the far field principal stress and fault friction the average orientation of the principal stresses in the region of likely failure is not the same as the far field principal stress orientation although inversion of earthquake and fabric data for stress orientation along a fault may be possible the model results suggest that inversion results are insufficient to determine far field stress states and fault friction without additional independent data

aftershock asymmetry rupture directivity among central san andreas fault microearthquakes using a waveform cross correlation technique we have obtained precise relative locations for nearly 75 of the northern california seismic network catalog 4300 earthquakes occurring between 1984 and 1997 along 50 km of the san andreas fault errors in relative location are meters to tens of meters for events separated by tens to hundreds of meters we find that consecutive earthquakes in the relocated catalog occur no closer than a distance approximately equal to the radius of the first rupture as estimated from the moment magnitude relationship of abercrombie 1996 assuming a 10 mpa stress drop when the relative position vectors between consecutive events are normalized by this distance and projected onto the fault surface they define a hole whose shape suggests that typical microearthquakes are elongate in the mode ii slip parallel direction by several tens of percent moreover of the 100 immediate aftershocks occurring closest to the mode ii edges of the prior rupture more than twice as many occur to the northwest than to the southeast we interpret this asymmetry as resulting from the large contrast in material properties across the fault models of dynamic rupture between dissimilar media predict that ruptures in this region may run preferentially to the southeast in the direction of motion of the lower velocity material if so then the barriers that stop rupture fronts moving to the southeast should initially be farther from failure on average than the barriers that stop rupture fronts moving to the northwest once the rupture stops the induced stress change is more symmetric but the fault remains farther from failure on average to the southeast this interpretation receives some support from pulse width measurements on a localized set of 72 magnitude 0 6 to 3 6 earthquakes

a fault constitutive relation accounting for thermal pressurization of pore fluid 1 the heat generated in a slip zone during an earthquake can raise fluid pressure and thereby reduce frictional resistance to slip the amount of fluid pressure rise depends on the associated fluid flow the heat generated at a given time produces fluid pressure that decreases inversely with the square root of hydraulic diffusivity times the elapsed time if the slip velocity function is crack like there is a prompt fluid pressure rise at the onset of slip followed by a slower increase the stress drop associated with the prompt fluid pressure rise increases with rupture propagation distance the threshold propagation distance at which thermally induced stress drop starts to dominate over frictionally induced stress drop is proportional to hydraulic diffusivity if hydraulic diffusivity is 0 02 m2 s estimated from borehole samples of fault zone material the threshold propagation distance is 300 m the stress wave in an earthquake will induce an unknown amount of dilatancy and will increase hydraulic diffusivity both of which will lessen the fluid pressure effect nevertheless if hydraulic diffusivity is no more than two orders of magnitude larger than the laboratory value then stress drop is complete in large earthquakes

dynamic shear rupture interactions with fault bends and off axis secondary faulting 1 on the basis of elastodynamic stress fields for singular crack and nonsingular slip weakening models of propagating rupture we develop preliminary answers to such questions as follows if a rupturing fault is intersected by another providing a possible bend in the failure path when will stressing be consistent with rupture along the bend what secondary fault locations and orientations in a damaged region bordering a major fault will be stressed to failure by the main rupture stresses that could initiate rupture on a bend are shown to increase dramatically with crack speed especially near the limiting speed rayleigh for mode ii shear for mode iii whether a bend path once begun can be continued to larger scales depends on principal stress directions and ratios in the prestress field conditions should often be met in mode ii for which bend paths encouraged by stressing very near the rupture tip are discouraged by the larger scale stressing a basis for intermittent rupture propagation and spontaneous arrest secondary failure in the damage zone likewise increases markedly as the limiting speed is approached such may make the fracture energy much greater than for slip on a single surface the extent of secondary faulting is strongly affected by prestress directions and the ratio of residual to peak strength for mode ii prestress controls whether activation occurs primarily on the extensional side which we show to be the typical case or on the compressional side too natural examples are consistent with the concepts developed

implications for mechanical properties of brittle faults from observations of the punchbowl fault zone california field observations of the punchbowl fault zone an inactive trace of the san andreas are integrated with results from experimental deformation of naturally deformed punchbowl fault rocks for a qualitative description of the mechanical properties of the fault and additional information for conceptual models of crustal faulting the punchbowl fault zone consists of a single continuous gouge layer bounded by zones of extensively damaged host rock fault displacements were not only localized to the gouge layer but also to discrete shear surfaces within the gouge deformation in the exposure studied probably occurred at depths of 2 to 4 km and was dominated by cataclastic mechanisms textural data also suggest that significant amounts of pore fluids were present during faulting and that fluid assisted mechanisms such as dissolution diffusion and precipitation were operative the experimental data on specimens collected from the fault zone suggest that there is a gradual decrease in strength and elastic modulus and an increase in relative ductility and permeability toward the main gouge zone the gouge layer has fairly uniform mechanical properites and it has significantly lower strength elastic modulus and permeability than both the damaged and the undeformed host rock for the punchbowl fault and possibly other brittle faults the variations in loading of the gouge zone with time are primarily governed by the morphology of the fault and the mechanical properties of the damaged host rock in addition the damaged zone acts as the permeable unit of the fault zone and surrounding rock it appears that the gouge primarily governs whether displacements are localized and it therefore may have a significant influence on the mode of slip

iron coating in recent terrace sequences under extremely arid conditions summary precise documentation of ferric oxide coating on calcareous sands of 13 15 recent alluvial fan terraces in the dead sea area israel indicates a gradual ferric enrichment over the last 12 00 years airborne dust is suggested as the main source the staining on the low terraces indicates that coating during short increments of time than hitherto generally accepted up to periods of a few tenths of years is distinguishable in an extremely arid environment the results suggest an initial stage of alluvial red bed formation

aftershocks are well aligned with the background stress field contradicting the hypothesis of highly heterogeneous crustal stress 1 it has been proposed that the crustal stress field contains small length scale heterogeneity of much larger amplitude than the uniform background stress this model predicts that earthquake focal mechanisms should reflect the loading stress rather than the uniform background stress so if the heterogeneous stress hypothesis is correct focal mechanisms before and after a large earthquake should align with the tectonic loading and the earthquake induced static stress perturbation respectively however i show that the off fault triggered aftershocks of the 1992 m7 3 landers california earthquake align with the same stress field as the pre landers mechanisms the aftershocks occurred on faults that were well oriented for failure in the pre landers stress field and then loaded by the landers induced static stress change aftershocks in regions experiencing a 0 05 to 5 mpa coseismic differential stress change align with the modeled landers induced static stress change implying that they were triggered by the stress perturbation contrary to the heterogeneous stress hypothesis these triggered aftershocks are also well aligned with the pre landers stress field obtained from inverting the pre landers focal mechanisms therefore the inverted pre landers stress must represent the persistent background stress field earthquake focal mechanisms provide an unbiased sample of the spatially coherent background stress field which is large relative to any small scale stress heterogeneity the counterexample provided by the landers earthquake is strong evidence that the heterogeneous stress model is not widely applicable

rupture dynamics and ground motion from 3 d rough fault simulations 1 we perform three dimensional 3 d numerical calculations of dynamic rupture along non planar faults to study the effects of fault roughness on rupture propagation and resultant ground motion the fault roughness model follows a self similar fractal distribution over length scales spanning three orders of magnitude from 102 to 105 m the fault is governed by a strongly rate weakening friction and the bulk material is subject to drucker prager viscoplasticity fault roughness promotes the development of self healing rupture pulses and a heterogeneous distribution of fault slip at the free surface and at depth the inelastic deformation generated by the large dynamic stress near rupture fronts occurs in a narrow volume around the fault with heterogeneous thickness correlated to local roughness slopes inelastic deformation near the free surface however is induced by the stress waves originated from dynamic rupture at depth and spreads to large distances 10 km away from the fault the present simulations model seismic wave excitation up to 10 hz with rupture lengths of 100 km permitting comparisons with empirical studies of ground motion intensity measures of engineering interest characteristics of site averaged synthetic response spectra including the distance and period dependence of the median values absolute level and intra event standard deviation are comparable to appropriate empirical estimates throughout the period range 0 1 3 0 s this class of model may provide a viable representation of the ground motion excitation process over a wide frequency range in a large spatial domain with potential applications to the numerical prediction of source and path specific effects on earthquake ground motion

faults smooth gradually as a function of slip abstract geometry and roughness of fault surfaces plays a central role in the dynamics and kinematics of faulting faults smooth with increasing slip but the degree of the smoothing has not previously been well constrained for natural faults we measure the roughness as a function of displacement for a suite of 16 faults with cumulative offsets ranging from 0 1 m to approximately 500 m we find that slip parallel roughness evolves gradually with slip for instance for segments of length 0 5 m h 2 10 3 d 0 1 where h is the rms roughness and d is the displacement on the fault strand with both quantities measured in meters the gradual nature of the smoothing is robust to varying lithology and erosion the weak function implies a decrease in the rate of gouge formation for a model with increasing slip for a model in which gouge is generated by abrading an asperity tip the relatively gradual evolution of roughness could be explained by lubrication by the accumulated gouge that mitigates the abrasional smoothing that occurs during slip and or re roughening processes

stress transferred by the 1995 mw 6 9 kobe japan shock effect on aftershocks and future earthquake probabilities the kobe earthquake struck at the edge of the densely populated osaka kyoto corridor in southwest japan we investigate how the earthquake transferred stress to nearby faults altering their proximity to failure and thus changing earthquake probabilities we find that relative to the pre kobe seismicity kobe aftershocks were concentrated in regions of calculated coulomb stress increase and less common in regions of stress decrease we quantify this relationship by forming the spatial correlation between the seismicity rate change and the coulomb stress change the correlation is significant for stress changes greater than 0 2 1 0 bars 0 02 0 1 mpa and the nonlinear dependence of seismicity rate change on stress change is compatible with a state and rate dependent formulation for earthquake occurrence we extend this analysis to future mainshocks by resolving the stress changes on major faults within 100 km of kobe and calculating the change in probability caused by these stress changes transient effects of the stress changes are incorporated by the state dependent constitutive relation which amplifies the permanent stress changes during the aftershock period earthquake probability framed in this manner is highly time dependent much more so than is assumed in current practice because the probabilities depend on several poorly known parameters of the major faults we estimate uncertainties of the probabilities by monte carlo simulation this enables us to include uncertainties on the elapsed time since the last earthquake the repeat time and its variability and the period of aftershock decay we estimate that a calculated 3 bar 0 3 mpa stress increase on the eastern section of the arima takatsuki tectonic line attl near kyoto causes fivefold increase in the 30 year probability of a subsequent large earthquake near kyoto a 2 bar 0 2 mpa stress decrease on the western section of the attl results in a reduction in probability by a factor of 140 to 2000 the probability of a mw 6 9 earthquake within 50 km of osaka during 1997 2007 is estimated to have risen from 5 6 before the kobe earthquake to 7 11 afterward during 1997 2027 it is estimated to have risen from 14 16 before kobe to 16 22

fractal analysis applied to characteristic segments of the san andreas fault fractal theory is applied in a quantitative analysis of the san andreas fault saf geometry the method which directly measures the increase in total fault length with a decrease in ruler size gives the fractal dimension d and scaling properties for the chosen length band 0 5 1000 km a physical interpretation of d is that it measures the irregularity of the fault trace in the selected band the fault is subdivided into six segments of distinctive seismic behavior a main fault trace which shows either maximum coseismic slip or creeping was selected for analysis with three alternative branches examined for the saf system south of san bernardino branches of the fault trace are not considered in this work fractal dimensions calculated for the different segments range from 1 0008 to 1 0191 and are different from 1 0 to the 95 confidence interval these small changes reflect the overall smoothness of the main fault trace significant variations in d among segments indicate heterogeneities in the fault smoothness along strike d also changes significantly from the short length band to the long length band where the demarcation point ranges from 1 to 2 km the short length band has larger d values a slight correlation is obtained between the fractal dimension of the main trace and the extent of subparallel faulting this indicates some correspondence between the main fault trace irregularity and the complexity of subsidiary fault traces in plan view

nonplanar faults mechanics of slip and off fault damage stress interactions and sliding characteristics of faults with random fractal waviness in a purely elastic medium differ both qualitatively and quantitatively from those of faults with planar surfaces with nonplanar fault models solutions for slip diverge as resolution of the fractal features increases and the scaling of fault slip with fault rupture dimension becomes nonlinear we show that the nonlinear scaling of slip and divergence of solutions arise because stresses from geometric interactions at irregularities along nonplanar faults grow with increasing slip and produce backstresses that progressively impede slip however in real materials with finite strength yielding will halt the growth of the interaction stresses which will profoundly affect slip of nonplanar faults we infer that in the brittle seismogenic portion of the earth s crust off fault yielding occurs on pervasive secondary faults predicted rates of stress relaxation with distance from major faults with random fractal roughness follow a power law relationship that is consistent with reported clustering of background seismicity up to 15 kilometers from faults