three dimensional geometry of the reelfoot blind thrust implications for moment release and earthquake magnitude in the new madrid seismic zone mapping of the reelfoot blind thrust using portable array for numerical data acquisition panda seismicity suggests that it is a complex fault that changes its geometry along strike the thrust appears to be bounded to the north by an east trending strike slip fault the southern end of the thrust is defined by seismicity and does not terminate at a known transverse fault the northern portion of the thrust steepens at shallow levels forming a listric concave upward shape in cross section the southern segment of the thrust is interpreted to flatten near the top of the precambrian basement although some segmentation of the blind thrust is observed from the mapping of 3 km wide strips of seismicity oriented perpendicular to the fault it does not appear to be significant enough to prevent rupture along its entire length the area of the blind thrust 1301 km 2 coupled with several estimates of displacement in the 7 february 1812 event is used to determine the moment released during the event the values of m 0 range from 6 8 10 26 to 1 4 10 27 dyne cm with preferred values between 6 8 10 26 and 8 7 10 26 dyne cm similar calculations for an earthquake in a d 1450 yield a moment release of 1 0 10 27 dyne cm computed moment magnitude for the 7 february 1812 event ranges from m w 7 2 to 7 4 with preferred values between m w 7 2 and 7 3 the moment magnitude for the a d 1450 event is computed as m w 7 3 these values for the magnitude of the 1812 earthquake are lower than previous estimates based on historical records of shaking however this does not imply a lowered seismic risk in the new madrid seismic zone as site effects in the mississippi embayment may significantly amplify the ground motion caused by earthquakes of a given magnitude

crustal structure of the western new england appalachians and the adirondack mountains we present an interpretation of the crustal velocity structure of the new england appalachians and the adirondack mountains based on a seismic refraction wide angle reflection experiment in eastern north america extending from the adirondacks in new york state through the northern appalachians in vermont and new hampshire to central maine modeling of the eastern portion of the profile within the new england appalachians shows a subhorizontal layered crust with upper crustal velocities ranging from 5 5 to 6 2 km s a midcrustal velocity of 6 4 km s and a lower crustal velocity of approximately 6 8 km s crustal thickness increases from 36 km beneath maine to 40 km in vermont little evidence is seen for structures at depth directly related to the white mountains or the green mountains a major lateral velocity change in the upper and mid crust occurs between the appalachians and the adirondacks this boundary projecting to the surface beneath the champlain valley dips to the east beneath the green mountains and extends to a depth of 25 km below the eastern edge of the connecticut valley synclinorium in vermont the tahawus complex a series of strong horizontal reflections at 18 24 km depth beneath the adirondack highlands is seen to dip eastward beneath vermont upper crustal rocks in the adirondack mountains have poisson s ratios of 0 28 0 01 that can be correlated with the marcy anorthosite pois son s ratios of 0 24 0 01 calculated for rocks of the connecticut valley synclinorium indicate a siliceous upper crust in vermont the lower crust is considered to be best represented by intermediate to mafic granulites a high poisson s ratio 0 26 0 27 tends to support a mafic lower crust in the new england appalachians this seismic refraction wide angle reflection experiment provides further evidence for the obduction of the allochthonous western appalachian units onto grenvillian crust above a zone of detachment that penetrates at least to midcrustal depths and was the locus of successive paleozoic thrusting

correction to rheology of the lithosphere inferred from postseismic uplift following the 1959 hebgen lake earthquake figure 2 elastic modulus and viscosity of the layered earth models gray layers are purely elastic a viscosity and depth of layers of the ve 1 model see text b shear modulus m bulk modulus k and density r in units of gpa gpa and kg m of the ve 1 model c viscosity and depth of layers of the ve 2 model see text journal of geophysical research vol 109 b02311 doi 10 1029 2003jb002798 2004

observation of glacial isostatic adjustment in stable north america with gps 1 motions of three hundred and sixty global positioning system gps sites in canada and the united states yield a detailed image of the vertical and horizontal velocity fields within the nominally stable interior of the north american plate by far the strongest signal is the effect of glacial isostatic adjustment gia due to ice mass unloading during deglaciation vertical velocities show present day uplift 10 mm yr near hudson bay the site of thickest ice at the last glacial maximum the uplift rates generally decrease with distance from hudson bay and change to subsidence 1 2 mm yr south of the great lakes the hinge line separating uplift from subsidence is consistent with data from water level gauges along the great lakes showing uplift along the northern shores and subsidence along the southern ones horizontal motions show outward motion from hudson bay with complex local variations especially in the far field although the vertical motions are generally consistent with the predictions of gia models the horizontal data illustrate the need and opportunity to improve the models via more accurate descriptions of the ice load and laterally variable mantle viscosity

strain accumulation in the new madrid and wabash valley seismic zones from 14 years of continuous gps observation the mechanical behavior and hence earthquake potential of faults in continental interiors is an issue of critical importance for the resultant seismic hazard but no consensus has yet been reached on this controversial topic the debate has focused on the central and eastern united states in particular the new madrid seismic zone struck by four magnitude 7 or greater earthquakes in 1811 1812 and to a lesser extent the wabash valley seismic zone just to the north a key aspect of this issue is the rate at which strain is currently accruing on those plate interior faults a quantity that remains debated here we address this issue with an analysis of up to 14 6 years of continuous gps data from a network of 200 sites in the central united states centered on the new madrid and wabash valley seismic zones we find that the high quality sites in these regions show motions that are consistently within the 95 confidence limit of zero deformation these results place an upper bound on strain accrual on faults of 0 2 mm yr and 0 6 mm yr in the new madrid and wabash valley seismic zones respectively for the new madrid region where a paleoseismic record is available for the past 5000 years we argue that strain accrual if any does not permit the 500 900 year repeat time of paleo earthquakes observed in the upper mississippi embayment these results together with increasing evidence for temporal clustering and spatial migration of earthquake sequences in continental interiors indicate that either tectonic loading rates or fault properties vary with time in the new madrid seismic zone and possibly plate wide

magnitudes and locations of the 1811 1812 new madrid missouri and the 1886 charleston south carolina earthquakes we estimate locations and moment magnitudes m and their uncertainties for the three largest events in the 1811 1812 sequence near new madrid missouri and for the 1 september 1886 event near charleston south carolina the intensity magnitude m i our preferred estimate of m is 7 6 for the 16 december 1811 event that occurred in the new madrid seismic zone nmsz on the bootheel lineament or on the blytheville seismic zone m i is 7 5 for the 23 january 1812 event for a location on the new madrid north zone of the nmsz and 7 8 for the 7 february 1812 event that occurred on the reelfoot blind thrust of the nmsz our preferred locations for these events are located on those nmsz segments preferred by johnston and schweig 1996 our estimates of m are 0 1 0 4 m units less than those of johnston 1996b and 0 3 0 5 m units greater than those of hough et al 2000 m i is 6 9 for the 1 september 1886 event for a location at the summerville middleton place cluster of recent small earthquakes located about 30 km northwest of charleston

regional wave propagation in new england and new york we validate and improve 1d velocity models of the two main crustal provinces in the northeastern united states neus using seismograms from the 20 april 2002 m 5 au sable forks earthquake which is the largest earthquake in the region to be recorded by multiple recently deployed good quality regional broad band stations to predict and mitigate the effects of future earthquakes in the north eastern united states more information is needed regarding both the local earthquake sources and how seismic waves travel through the region we investigate the source and regional wave propagation for the au sable forks earthquake the earthquake epicenter is located near the boundary of two distinct geological provinces the appalachian new england and grenville new york we use a forward modeling approach to study the waveforms recorded at 16 stations located within 400 km of the epicenter we generate synthetic seismograms using the frequency wavenumber method testing several published models for the two provinces several models per form well at low frequencies 0 1 hz we refine these models and generate two alternative 1d crustal models for intermediate frequencies 1 hz of engineering interest our new grenville model performs better than previously published models for all six source station paths modeled in that province according to goodness of fit statistics variance reduction and correlation coefficient our alternative appalachian model improves the fit of synthetics to data for five of the ten paths modeled in that province from the results we identify two specific sources of wave field complex ities that should be investigated in future studies of earthquake ground motions in neus 3 azimuthal anisotropy in the appalachian province and complex wave paths along the boundary between the two provinces

inference of mantle viscosity from grace and relative sea level data summary gravity recovery and climate experiment grace satellite observations of secular changes in gravity near hudson bay and geological measurements of relative sea level rsl changes over the last 10 000 yr in the same region are used in a monte carlo inversion to infer mantle viscosity structure the grace secular change in gravity shows a significant positive anomaly over a broad region 3000 km near hudson bay with a maximum of 2 5 gal yr 1 slightly west of hudson bay the pattern of this anomaly is remarkably consistent with that predicted for postglacial rebound using the ice 5g deglaciation history strongly suggesting a postglacial rebound origin for the gravity change we find that the grace and rsl data are insensitive to mantle viscosity below 1800 km depth a conclusion similar to that from previous studies that used only rsl data for a mantle with homogeneous viscosity the grace and rsl data require a viscosity between 1 4 1021 and 2 3 1021 pa s an inversion for two mantle viscosity layers separated at a depth of 670 km shows an ensemble of viscosity structures compatible with the data while the lowest misfit occurs for upper and lower mantle viscosities of 5 3 1020 and 2 3 1021 pa s respectively a weaker upper mantle may be compensated by a stronger lower mantle such that there exist other models that also provide a reasonable fit to the data we find that the grace and rsl data used in this study cannot resolve more than two layers in the upper 1800 km of the mantle

deep structure of an arc continent collision earthquake relocation and inversion for upper mantle p and s wave velocities beneath papua new guinea we examine mechanisms of lithospheric growth and modes accommodating subcrustal convergence following the cessation of subduction by analyzing the seismicity and upper mantle velocities in the new guinea arc continent collision earthquakes in the papua new guinea png region from 1967 to 1984 have been relocated in a joint inversion with seismic velocities using p and s wave arrival times recorded by seismographs in png a total of 957 well recorded earthquakes were chosen for use in three dimensional velocity inversions from an initial catalog of 12 960 events based on the stability of initial hypocenter relocations constant velocity blocks were defined as irregular polyhedra to give fine detail in heavily sampled areas without introducing a large number of poorly controlled parameters and to exploit a priori knowledge of the geometry of velocity anomalies spherical geometry was used to accurately calculate long ray paths up to 1500 km in length most of the 700 best located hypocenters from the png data set are in the upper mantle beneath the finisterre huon fh ranges the newly accreted island arc terrane beneath the papuan peninsula and in the new britain seismic zone an oceanic subduction system these hypocenters show a well defined seismic zone dipping vertically or steeply to the north beneath the northern fh ranges from 125 to 250 km depth continuous along strike with the new britain seismic zone to the east which shows earthquakes to 600 km depth the steeply dipping intermediate depth seismicity flattens near 100 km depth beneath the fh ranges and forms a subhorizontal seismic zone beneath the fh ranges by contrast seismicity continues upward to the surface beneath new britain where the arc has not yet collided with new guinea the 100 km deep flat zone does not continue south of the fh ranges but appears to be truncated below the eastern and southern boundaries of the island arc terrane and no clear evidence for a south dipping seismic zone could be found the relationship of the flat part of the slab 100 km beneath the fh ranges and surface faulting is difficult to discern the apparent surface suture bounding the south side of the fh ranges is 100 km directly above the southern termination of intermediate depth seismicity nowhere in png could clear evidence for arc polarity reversal be found from seismicity all of the well located subcrustal earthquakes beneath the papuan peninsula lie in a narrow horizontal line between 125 and 175 km depth that follows the center of the peninsula and are distinctly separated from the fh seismic zone to the north these events do not require a southward subducting plate beneath the papuan peninsula an alternate and reasonable explanation for these events is that they are a result of unstable thickening of the lithosphere information on lateral heterogeneity in the mantle is limited because large variations in crustal velocities dominate the observed pattern of travel time residuals allowing for only crustal heterogeneity reduces travel time residual variances by 40 from a simple one dimensional structure while allowing for additional mantle heterogeneity results in 10 further reduction for the various parameterization s attempted here inversions with several different block geometries show low velocities at 35 to 171 km km depth beneath the bismarck sea back arc basin and high velocities just south of the intermediate depth fh seismic zone the pattern of lateral heterogeneity supports the inference from seismicity of north dipping slabs beneath both northeast new guinea and new britain

secondary aftershocks and their importance for aftershock forecasting the potential locations of aftershocks which can be large and damaging are often forecast by calculating where the mainshock increased stress we find however that the mainshock induced stress field is often rapidly altered by aftershock induced stresses we find that the percentage of aftershocks that are secondary aftershocks or aftershocks triggered by previous aftershocks increases with time after the mainshock if we only consider aftershock sequences in which all aftershocks are smaller than the mainshock the percentage of aftershocks that are secondary also increases with mainshock magnitude using the california earthquake catalog and monte carlo trials we estimate that on average more than 50 of aftershocks produced 8 or more days after m 5 mainshocks and more than 50 of all aftershocks produced by m 7 mainshocks that have aftershock sequences lasting at least 15 days are triggered by previous aftershocks these results suggest that previous aftershock times and locations may be important predictors for new aftershocks we find that for four large aftershock sequences in california an updated forecast method using previous aftershock data and neglecting mainshock induced stress changes can outperform forecasts made by calculating the static coulomb stress change induced solely by the mainshock manuscript received 20 november 2002

sinking mafic body in a reactivated lower crust a mechanism for stress concentration at the new madrid seismic zone we propose a geodynamic model for stress concentration in the new madrid seismic zone nmsz the model postulates that a high density mafic body situated in the deep crust directly beneath the most seismically active part of the nmsz began sinking several thousands of years ago when the lower crust was suddenly weakened based on the fact that deformation rates in the nmsz have accelerated over the past 9 k y we envision the source of this perturbation to be related to the last north american deglaciation excess mass of the mafic body exerts a downward pull on the elastic upper crust leading to a cycle of primary thrust faulting with secondary strike slip faulting after which continued sinking of the mafic body reloads the upper crust and renews the process this model is consistent with the youth of activity the generation of a sequence of earthquakes and the velocity evolution during interseismic periods which depend upon the density contrast of the mafic body with respect to the surrounding crust its volume and the viscosity of the lower crust

postseismic relaxation driven by brittle creep a possible mechanism to reconcile geodetic measurements and the decay rate of aftershocks application to the chi chi earthquake taiwan we evaluate the effect of coseismic stress changes on the fault slip at midcrustal depth assuming a velocity strengthening brittle creep rheology we show that this model can help reconcile the time evolution of afterslip as measured from geodesy with aftershocks decay we propose an analytical expression for slip of the brittle creeping fault zone bcfz that applies to any dynamic or static stress perturbation including shear stress and normal stress changes the model predicts an initial logarithmic increase of slip with time postseismic slip rate decays over a characteristic time t r a that does not depend on the amplitude of the stress perturbation and it asymptotically joins the long term creep imposed by interseismic stress buildup given that the seismicity rate might be considered proportional to the sliding velocity of the bcfz the model predicts a decay rate of aftershocks that follows omori s law with a mathematical formalism identical to that of dieterich 1994 although based on a different mechanical rationale our model also differs from dieterich s model in that it requires that aftershock sequences and deep afterslip as constrained from geodetic measurements should follow the same temporal evolution we test this for the 1999 chi chi earthquake m w 7 6 and find that both sets of data are consistent with a model of afterslip due to the response of the bcfz the inferred relaxation time t r 8 5 years requires a value for a log v being the coefficient of friction in the range between 1 3 10 3 and 10 2

why the new madrid earthquakes are m 7 8 and the charleston earthquake is m 7 estimates of magnitudes of large historical earthquakes are an essential input to and can seriously affect seismic hazard estimates the earthquake intensity observations modified mercalli intensities mmi and assigned magnitudes m of the 1811 1812 new madrid events have been reinterpreted several times in the last decade and have been a source of controversy in making seismic hazard estimates in the central united states observations support the concept that the larger the earthquake the greater the maximum felt distance for the same crustal attenuation and local soil conditions magnitude should be the main influence on intensity values at large distances we apply this concept by comparing the mean mmi at distances of 600 1200 km for each of the four largest new madrid 1811 1812 earthquakes the 1886 charleston south carolina earthquake the 1929 m 7 2 grand banks earthquake and the 2001 m 7 6 bhuj india earthquake we fit the intensity observations using the form mmi a c dist 0 8 log dist to better define intensity attenuation in eastern north america ena the intensity attenuation in cratonic india differs from ena and is corrected to ena using both the above estimate and published intensity relations we evaluate source marine geophysical q and stress drop information as well as a 1929 milne shaw record at chicago to confirm that the 1929 grand banks earthquake occurred in ena crust our direct comparison of mean intensities beyond 600 km suggests m 7 5 7 3 7 7 and 6 9 for the three new madrid 1811 1812 mainshocks and the largest aftershock and m 7 0 for the 1886 charleston south carolina earthquake with an estimated uncertainty of 0 3 units at the 95 confidence level based on a monte carlo analysis our mean new madrid and charleston mainshock magnitudes are similar to those of bakun and hopper 2004 and are much higher than those of hough and page 2011 for new madrid online material tables of mean modified mercalli intensity for 800 1200 and 600 1000 km distance ranges and figures of least squares fit for all intensity measures used and for frequency dependent q in easternmost canada

short term uplift rates and surface deformation along the reelfoot fault new madrid seismic zone abstract this study of variability in the amount and rate of deformation along the intraplate reelfoot fault of the new madrid seismic zone nmsz utilizes diverse research methods including geophysics geomorphology and fluvial sedimentology the transpressional reelfoot fault deforms late holocene mississippi river sediment into the tiptonville dome and adjacent reelfoot basin because reelfoot lake submerges a portion of the basin subbottom acoustic profiling of the lake was used to quantify the relief on the uplift at the natural levee of the abandoned tiptonville meander the most appropriate landform along the scarp for measuring cumulative structural relief a maximum relative vertical uplift of approximately 11 3 m was measured to identify spatial and temporal variability in surface deformation using geologic methods we relate fluvial sedimentation to three documented earthquake events during the past 2300 yr tuttle et al 2002 2005 which is the approximate age of the oldest deformed floodplain sediment guccione et al 2002 radiocarbon dates from organic material in fluvial and lacustrine sediment indicate that most of the uplift occurred during the last two major seismic events a minimum of 1 6 3 9 m of uplift was associated with the seismic episode at a d 1450 150 and a maximum of 5 9 8 2 m of uplift was associated with the 1812 episode we estimate a mean short term uplift rate of 1 2 cm yr 0 4 2 1 cm yr with 80 probability or a mean short term slip rate of 1 3 cm yr 0 5 2 3 cm yr with 80 probability these values are approximately 2 5 times higher than the long term rates based on the total amount of uplift averaged over the past 2300 yr mueller et al 1999 van arsdale 2000 estimating deformation rates associated with individual earthquake recurrences provides information on fluctuating activity of the nmsz

shear velocity structure and azimuthal anisotropy beneath eastern north america from rayleigh wave inversion 1 we have obtained shear velocity structure beneath the northeastern united states and southeastern canada using rayleigh wave phases and amplitudes thin crust 36 42 km is observed along the atlantic coast and in the eastern appalachian orogen and thick crust 42 46 km is imaged in the western appalachians and in the western new york portion of the grenville province the variation of crustal thickness correlates well with the observed bouguer gravity anomalies in the upper mantle the high velocity continental keel of cratonic north america is present in the western part of the study area while a broad low velocity region is imaged in new england from the hudson river valley to the white mountains this low velocity anomaly is probably the consequence of past heating of the lithospheric mantle associated with the monteregian hotspot and may represent intrusion of asthenosphere into the edge of the keel in addition to lateral variations in velocity we estimate the azimuthal dependence of phase velocity strong and relatively uniform shear wave splitting is observed in the study region but at periods of 100 s or less the average azimuthal anisotropy of rayleigh waves is less than 1 and is not significantly different from zero at any individual period this small degree of azimuthal anisotropy is not consistent with a substantial contribution to shear wave splitting from fossil anisotropy in the lithosphere much of the source of the shear wave splitting must lie deeper than 200 km

determination of seismic energy from lg waves seismic energy is a physical concept related to broadband information on the source radiation this is different from seismic moment which is related to low frequency information improved estimates of seismic moment and radiated energy can improve the scientific framework for interpreting observed seismicity in terms of physical source processes this study evaluates the utility of regional lg waves the dominant feature of seismograms for regional earthquakes for the estimation of radiated seismic energy the rms lg which is defined as the root mean square of lg wave ground velocity within a certain group velocity range is proportional to the square root of lg wave radiated energy flux we find that rms lg is a good quantity for estimating the energy release of earthquakes because a large fraction of the total seismic energy is radiated as lg waves we scale the network averaged rms lg value to a reference distance of 100 km for a set of 52 earthquakes in the northeastern united states using an empirically derived relation between rms lg and epicentral distance we apply the source parameters estimated for these earthquakes to boatwright s deceleration source model and calculate the total seismic energy expected to have been radiated by each event assuming it can be modeled by this source we then obtain for earthquakes in the northeastern united states the scaling of the total radiated seismic energy of earthquakes with network averaged rms lg values from synthetic seismograms it is found that different velocity structures have an effect on the efficiency of lg wave radiation using measurements of rms lg made from synthetics we find that the vertical strike slip source tends to radiate less lg wave energy than other source mechanisms manuscript received 4 february 1998

on the modified mercalli intensities and magnitudes of the 1811 1812 new madrid earthquakes we reexamine original felt reports from the 1811 1812 new madrid earthquakes and determine revised isoseismal maps for the three principal mainshocks in many cases we interpret lower values than those assigned by earlier studies in some cases the revisions result from an interpretation of original felt reports with an appreciation for site response issues additionally earlier studies had assigned modified mercalli intensity mmi values of v vii to a substantial number of reports that we conclude do not describe damage commensurate with intensities this high we investigate several approaches to contouring the mmi values using both analytical and subjective methods for the first mainshock on 02 15 lt december 16 1811 our preferred contouring yields m 7 2 7 3 using the area moment regressions of johnston 1996 for the 08 00 lt on january 23 1812 and 03 45 lt on february 7 1812 mainshocks we obtain m 7 0 and m 7 4 7 5 respectively our magnitude for the february mainshock is consistent with the established geometry of the reelfoot fault which all evidence suggests to have been the causative structure for this event we note that the inference of lower magnitudes for the new madrid events implies that site response plays a significant role in controlling seismic hazard at alluvial sites in the central and eastern united states we also note that our results suggest that thrusting may have been the dominant mechanism of faulting associated with the 1811 1812 sequence

adirondack appalachian crustal structure the cocorp northeast traverse reflection surveys from northeastern new york and central vermont the first elements of a cocorp seismic traverse of grenville and appalachian terranes in the northeastern united states indicate that an unusual zone of layered reflections characterizes the lower crust beneath the eastern adirondacks and that grenville age basement of the green mountains may actually be allochthonous perhaps thrust over paleozoic shelf rocks the top of the adirondack deep layered sequence is found at about 20 km beneath the marcy meta anorthosite massif it appears to dip about 10 northwestward and wedge out against more horizontal reflections at about 28 km this intracrustal sequence may correspond with a previously inferred increase in electrical conductivity possible interpretations range from its being a layered igneous complex to its representing a tectonically buried metasedimentary assemblage although graphitic schists and iron or sulfide segregations in such an assemblage might contribute to its electrical characteristics the problematical issue of water in the lower crust if and how it got there and remained is again raised if not resolved other intrabasement features include major east and west dipping reflections possibly corresponding to faults arched reflections that may represent folds a well defined lens shaped zone virtually devoid of reflections and possible moho reflections unequivocal sub moho reflections are absent superimposed at shallower levels on the eastern part of the traverse are appalachian structures reflections down to about 4 5 km beneath the taconic mountains are interpreted to represent paleozoic shelf sediments of the middlebury synclinorium underlying the taconic allochthons possibly correlative although less well defined reflections appear to extend in disrupted fashion beneath the precambrian rocks of the green mountains suggesting a major basement overthrust the inferred decollement for this overthrust steepens rapidly beneath the east flank of the green mountains east dipping reflections at the east side of the green mountains may represent another major thrust zone involving basement and overlying metasedimentary slices the basement overthrusting suggested by this study is similar in certain respects to the style if not the extent of that demonstrated by previous cocorp surveys in the southern appalachians

estimating earthquake magnitudes from reported intensities in the central and eastern united states a new macroseismic intensity prediction equation is derived for the central and eastern united states and is used to estimate the magnitudes of the 1811 1812 new madrid missouri and 1886 charleston south carolina earthquakes this work improves upon previous derivations of intensity prediction equations by including additional intensity data correcting magnitudes in the intensity datasets to moment magnitude and accounting for the spatial and temporal population distributions the new relation leads to moment magnitude estimates for the new madrid earthquakes that are toward the lower range of previous studies depending on the intensity dataset to which the new macroseismic intensity prediction equation is applied mean estimates for the 16 december 1811 23 january 1812 and 7 february 1812 mainshocks and 16 december 1811 dawn aftershock range from 6 9 to 7 1 6 8 to 7 1 7 3 to 7 6 and 6 3 to 6 5 respectively one sigma uncertainties on any given estimate could be as high as 0 3 0 4 magnitude units we also estimate a magnitude of 6 9 0 3 for the 1886 charleston south carolina earthquake we find a greater range of magnitude estimates when also accounting for multiple macroseismic intensity prediction equations the inability to accurately and precisely ascertain magnitude from intensities increases the uncertainty of the central united states earthquake hazard by nearly a factor of two relative to the 2008 national seismic hazard maps our range of possible 1811 1812 new madrid earthquake magnitudes increases the coefficient of variation of seismic hazard estimates for memphis tennessee by 35 42 for ground motions expected to be exceeded with a 2 probability in 50 years and by 27 35 for ground motions expected to be exceeded with a 10 probability in 50 years

seismic velocities in the shallow crust of western new england and northern new york the ontario new york new england refraction study o nynex provides a set of high quality data for a tomographic study of an intraplate continental region with low seismic activity this study focuses on the region crossed by the united states part of the o nynex profile tomographic inversion of the travel time data is used to construct a three dimensional model of the p and s wave seismic velocity distribution within the shallow crust of this region velocity structure is resolved in the top 15 km of the crust with the most detailed picture obtained for the depth range between 1 and 5 km the upper crust of the proterozoic grenville province is found to have a p wave velocity 0 2 to 0 3 km sec higher than the paleozoic appalachians the area of anorthositic intrusions within the adirondack mountains is characterized by p wave velocities 0 3 km sec higher and s wave velocities 0 1 km sec higher than the average values for the grenville province this high velocity anomaly extends to the depth over 5 km possibly as deep as 16 km the velocity structure of central vermont is found to be closer to that of the grenville province than to the rest of the appalachians central new hampshire shows relatively small lateral variation of seismic velocity no strong correlation is seen between velocity anomalies and intrusive bodies of the white mountains magma series

significant motions between gps sites in the new madrid region implications for seismic hazard position time series from global positioning system gps stations in the new madrid region were differenced to determine the relative motions between sta tions uncertainties in rates were estimated using a three component noise model con sisting of white flicker and random walk noise following the methodology of langbein 2004 significant motions of 0 37 0 07 one standard error mm yr were found between sites ptgvand stle for which the baseline crosses the inferred deep portion of the reelfoot fault baselines between stle and three other sites also show significant motion site mcty adjacent to stle also exhibits significant motion with respect to ptgv these motions are consistent with a model of interseismic slip of about 4 mm yr on the reelfoot fault at depths between 12 and 20 km if constant over time this rate of slip produces sufficient slip for an m 7 3 earthquake on the shallow portion of the reelfoot fault using the geologically derived recurrence time of 500 years this model assumes that the shallow portion of the fault has been pre viously loaded by the intraplate stress a gps site near little rock arkansas shows significant southward motion of 0 3 0 4 mm yr 0 08 mm yr relative to three sites to the north indicating strain consistent with focal mechanisms of earthquake swarms in northern arkansas

effects of lithospheric viscoelastic relaxation on the contemporary deformation following the 1959 mw 7 3 hebgen lake montana earthquake and other areas of the intermountain seismic belt 1 the 1959 mw 7 3 hebgen lake mt normal faulting earthquake occurred in an extensional stress regime near the yellowstone volcanic field time dependent crustal deformation data following this major earthquake were acquired by precise trilateration and gps surveys from 1973 to 2000 around the hebgen lake fault zone modeling the changes of baseline lengths across and near the fault reveals a lateral variation of transient rheology in which the lithosphere is stronger near the hebgen lake fault zone than in the vicinity of the yellowstone volcano system the models also imply that the lower crust is stronger than the upper mantle in agreement with results from studies of postseismic and post lake filling relaxations 100 years in addition evaluations of the postseismic motion produced by the hebgen lake and the 1983 mw 6 9 borah peak id earthquakes indicate that horizontal transient motion of up to 1 mm yr contribute significantly to the contemporary regional crustal deformation near the epicentral areas for the eastern basin and range 500 km south of the hebgen lake fault similar rheologic models were derived from the observed uplift associated with the lake bonneville rebound and were used to evaluate the postseismic deformation associated with six most recent paleoearthquakes of the wasatch fault zone and three m 5 6 historic earthquakes of northern utah the results show 0 1 mm yr of horizontal postseismic motion at present time that are within the horizontal uncertainties of continuous gps velocity from the basin and range and significantly smaller than the contemporary extension of 1 3 mm yr in the wasatch front

seismic moment assessment of earthquakes in stable continental regions iii new madrid 1811 1812 charleston 1886 and lisbon 1755 summary the sizes of three major or great historical earthquakes are reassessed using the isoseismal area regression tools developed in parts i and ii of this study of stable continental region scr seismicity the earthquakes are 1811 new madrid central united states and its following sequence 1886 charleston coastal south carolina and 1755 lisbon oceanic intraplate off the continental shelf of portugal the analysis confirms the large size of these events and for the first time places constraints on the uncertainty of their seismic moment release because of the exceptionally low seismic wave attenuation of eastern north america ena a separate north american regression of seismic moment on isoseismal area was developed additionally the unknown western extents of the new madrid isoseismal areas were calibrated with the patterns of the m 6 3 6 6 1843 and 1895 earthquakes application of part ii analysis procedures with these corrections yields new madrid size estimates expressed as moment magnitude of m 8 1 0 31 for the 1811 december 16 m 7 8 0 33 for the 1812 january 23 and m 8 0 0 33 for the 1812 february 7 principal events the charleston earthquake s magnitude decreases from m 7 4 to m 7 3 0 26 after compensation for the effect of coastal plain sediments on its inner isoseismals intensity regressions for lisbon are calibrated against the isoseismal pattern of the nearly co located m 7 8 1969 st vincent earthquake which in this case increases the predicted size of lisbon from m 8 4 to m 8 7 0 39 these size estimates are supported by data from independent phenomena extent and severity of liquefaction the maximum distance of induced landslides and for lisbon tsunami wave amplitudes estimated source parameters are controlled by crustal or lithospheric temperature which governs the depth extent of brittle faulting using estimated continental and oceanic geotherms viable fault lengths are 30 80 km for charleston 120 180 km for 1811 new madrid and 180 280 km for lisbon for average displacements of 2 4 m 8 11 m and 10 14 m respectively and for average static stress and strain drops at the estimated seismic moments of this study the 1811 new madrid and the 1755 lisbon events are respectively the largest known scr and oceanic lithosphere earthquakes

frictional afterslip following the 2005 nias simeulue earthquake sumatra continuously recording global positioning system stations near the 28 march 2005 rupture of the sunda megathrust moment magnitude m w 8 7 show that the earthquake triggered aseismic frictional afterslip on the subduction megathrust with a major fraction of this slip in the up dip direction from the main rupture eleven months after the main shock afterslip continues at rates several times the average interseismic rate resulting in deformation equivalent to at least a m w 8 2 earthquake in general along strike variations in frictional behavior appear to persist over multiple earthquake cycles aftershocks cluster along the boundary between the region of coseismic slip and the up dip creeping zone we observe that the cumulative number of aftershocks increases linearly with postseismic displacements this finding suggests that the temporal evolution of aftershocks is governed by afterslip

time variable deformation in the new madrid seismic zone new geodetic measurements show that the new madrid is currently deforming too slowly if at all to account for large earthquakes in the region over the past 5000 years this result together with increasing evidence for temporal clustering and spatial migration of earthquake sequences in continental interiors indicates that either tectonic loading rates or fault properties vary over a few thousand years

the vertebrate track record a renaissance in the study of fossil footprints has been driven by a multitude of discoveries and the realization that vertebrate ichnology makes important contributions to our understanding of terrestrial vertebrates more striking is the insight the track record gives us into bias and incompleteness in the vertebrate fossil record

imaging the new madrid seismic zone using double difference tomography 1 three dimensional p and s wave velocity vp and vs models and high resolution earthquake relocations are determined for the new madrid seismic zone using double difference local earthquake tomography the data set consists of arrival times and differential times recorded by the cooperative new madrid seismic network cnmsn from 2000 to 2007 and the 1989 1992 portable array network and data acquisition deployment waveform cross correlation derived differential times for the cnmsn data are also incorporated the velocity solutions are compatible with previous solutions centered on the active arms of seismicity and cover a broader area including mafic intrusions along the margin of the reelfoot rift major features include elevated vp and vs associated with the mafic plutons and reduced vp and vs along and southeast of the axial fault af a major arm of seismicity trending along the rift axis low vp extends to a depth of at least 20 km along the portion of the af that extends south of the missouri bootheel a locally high vp vs anomaly imaged along the central portion of the reelfoot fault is spatially correlated with a significant change in fault trend and is interpreted as a region containing high pore pressure and or water filled microcracks

western quebec seismic zone canada clustered midcrustal seismicity along a mesozoic hot spot track 1 the western quebec seismic zone wqsz is a 160 km wide band of intraplate seismicity extending 500 km from the adirondack highlands united states to the laurentian uplands canada previous authors have proposed that the wqsz is localized over the mesozoic track of the great meteor hot spot here we explore this hypothesis further by investigating regional seismicity characteristics focal mechanisms for wqsz earthquakes including a new mechanism for a moderate mn 4 5 earthquake reveal a pattern of reverse sense faulting with sw trending p axes changing to e w in the southern part of the zone we introduce a simple box counting method to delineate spatial clusters based on exceedance of random seismicity density combining this approach with focal depths from regional depth phase analysis we find that seismicity with shallow focus 0 7 km is characterized by a random spatial distribution whereas earthquakes with an intermediate focal depth 8 18 km are strongly clustered along a diffuse linear band trending n50 w earthquakes deeper than 18 km are confined to a few distinct clusters these clusters are characterized by differing b values and for at least one cluster repeating events projection of hypocenters onto a deep seismic profile and comparison with preexisting crustal structures suggest that local reactivation of precambrian structural features may have occurred however the great meteor hot spot track remains the only compelling explanation for the overall distribution of earthquakes proximity of seismicity clusters to historic and prehistoric earthquakes lends support to the hypothesis that modern seismicity may represent exceptionally long lived aftershocks of large past events

rheology of the lithosphere inferred from postseismic uplift following the 1959 hebgen lake earthquake 1 we have modeled the broad postseismic uplift measured by geodetic leveling in the epicentral area of the 1959 mw 7 3 hebgen lake montana earthquake a normal faulting event in the northern basin and range province to fit the observed uplift we calculate synthetic postseismic deformation using the relaxation response of a gravitational viscoelastic earth to the earthquake for a model with an elastic plate overlying a viscoelastic half space we find that the elastic thickness is 38 8 km which is close to the local crustal thickness the half space viscosity is estimated at 4 1018 0 5 pa s the leveling data do not require a viscous lower crust but permit a lower bound viscosity of 1020 pa s the observed broad uplift cannot be explained by physically plausible afterslip on and below the coseismic fault however local deformation across the coseismic surface rupture requires shallow afterslip reaching the surface the postseismic deformation induced by the estimated viscoelastic structure decays exponentially with a time constant of 15 years because of coupling between the elastic layer and the viscoelastic substrate this relaxation time is significantly longer than the 2 year maxwell relaxation time of the viscous half space itself our result suggests the importance of postseismic relaxation in interpreting high precision global positioning system velocities for example our model results suggest that postseismic transient velocities from both the 1959 hebgen lake and the 1983 mw 6 9 borah peak earthquakes are currently as large as 1 2 mm yr

composition of the crust in the grenville and appalachian provinces of north america inferred from v p v s ratios we use the ratios between p and s wave velocities vp vs derived from seismic refraction data to infer the composition of the crust in the grenville and the appalachian provinces of north america the crust exhibits vp vs increasing with depth from 1 64 to 1 84 there is a clear distinction between the grenville province average vp vs 1 81 and the appalachian province average vp vs 1 73 which persists at all depths the boundary between these provinces is east dipping extending for 100 km east of the champlain thrust in the appalachian province the increase in vp vs ratios with depth from 1 67 to 1 74 0 02 may reflect a normal decrease of silica content in the continental crust in the grenville province beneath the central granulite terrane an anomalous vp vs ratio of 1 82 0 02 is observed extending to a depth of 10 km this correlates with the abundance of ca plagioclase in the marcy anorthosite at greater depth 15 20 km where seismic lamination and high electrical conductivity is observed vp vs is 1 84 0 02 and correlates with the tahawus complex a layered mafic intrusion within the 25 km thick lower crust of the grenville province the vp vs is 1 84 0 02 and p velocity is 7 0 0 1 km s which are typical for plagioclase bearing rocks gabbro norite the high vp vs ratio in the grenville province has not been reported in crust of any other age since the grenville province contains 75 of the world s known anorthosites high vp vs ratio is related to high plagioclase we suggest that the composition of the grenville lower crust was significantly modified by the emplacement of the anorthosites in the mid proterozoic

three dimensional p and s wave velocity structures beneath taiwan deep structure beneath an arc continent collision the island of taiwan is a byproduct of one of the few active collisions between a continent represented by the eurasian continental shelf and an island arc represented by the northern extension of the luzon arc on the philippine sea plate to understand better the evolution and current tectonics of this collision we selected 1260 well recorded earthquakes from an initial set of 50 000 located by the taiwan telemetered seismograph network for the determination of one and three dimensional p and s wave velocity structures beneath the island the results for both structures and earthquake relocations reveal that the island is divided tectonically into three distinct zones in the east the philippine oceanic plate is underthrusting the eurasian plate east of a north south boundary that is well defined by both seismic activity and a region of high velocity in the south the eurasian continental plate is underthrusting the philippine sea plate south of an east west boundary at about 23 n that is sharply defined by both subcrustal seismicity and a zone of relatively low velocities the dip of the subducted continent is shallow until it reaches the luzon island arc 50 km east of the main island structure under the main part of the island north of 230n reveals a shallow dipping zone of low velocities in the west above 25 km depth that narrows and steepens below that depth to at least 50 km beneath the central range the dip of this low velocity region is outlined by a narrow zone of seismicity that extends to depths of 100 km this seismic zone lies in a velocity saddle and marks an apparent offset in the central low velocity region at 24 n evidence for the subduction of the eurasian continent beneath taiwan therefore exists everywhere beneath the island and the low velocity regions in the mantle support but do not require the subduction of some 6 16 km of lower continental crust to depths of at least 50 km the distinct change in both the velocity structure and the seismic activity at 23 n and the offset of the low velocity regions at 24 n argue for abrupt changes in the nature of subduction across these latitudes these changes may be caused by an interaction of the luzon island arc with the subducted continental shelf that mimics a similar interaction evident at the surface finally the velocity structure of the subducting philippine sea plate suggests that the earthquakes beneath 70 km depth are not occurring within the highest velocity regions of the plate but are probably located near the upper edge of the plate there is also evidence from earthquake locations and velocity structure that suggests that the subducting plate is segmented and that subduction is presently occurring as far south as 22 n

crustal structure of the southeastern grenville province northern new york state and eastern ontario the grenville province exposes an oblique cross section through mid lower crustal lithologies that were pervasively deformed and subjected to regional thermal overprinting during the grenvillian orogeny 1 1 ga the southeastern grenville province is divided into two subterranes by the carthage colton mylonite zone a 110 km long lineament characterized by intense ductile shear and igneous intrusion which separates the amphibolite facies metasediments of the central metasedimentary belt to the west from the granulite facies metaplutonics of the central granulite terrane to the east the recognition of distinct lithotectonic domains separated by zones of intense ductile shear in the grenville province raises questions concerning the deep structure of these subterranes and in particular the means by which the mid lower crustal rocks exposed in the grenville province were emplaced seismic refraction wide angle reflection data were acquired to investigate the deep structural interrelationships within the southeastern grenville province a travel time inversion for velocity and interface depth was applied to the seismic data together with constraints from amplitude modeling to produce a seismic velocity model of the crust in the southeastern grenville province in the central metasedimentary belt the upper crust is characterized by velocities in the range 6 3 6 4 km s and a poisson s ratio of 0 26 0 01 which are attributed to quartzofeldspathic rocks farther east in the central granulite terrane upper crustal velocities of 6 55 km s and a poisson s ratio of 0 28 0 01 are associated with the marcy anorthosite the seismic homogeneity of the upper crust in the region of the carthage colton mylonite zone suggests that this boundary is a shallow feature limited to the upper 2 3 km of the crust the deep crustal structure of the southeastern grenville province is characterized by two discrete and laterally discontinuous seismic interfaces in the central metasedimentary belt the top of the lower crust is delineated by an eastward dipping interface at 24 28 km depth in the central granulite terrane prominent en echelon reflections referred to as the tahawus complex form a gently arched dome at 17 22 km depth interpretation of the tahawus complex as a zone of layered mafic cumulates is supported by its high velocity 7 1 km s and poisson s ratio 0 27 0 02 the lower crust is characterized by a velocity of 7 0 7 2 km s and an anomalously high poisson s ratio of 0 30 0 02 which are representative of pyroxene garnet granulites in contrast velocities of 6 8 7 0 km s are modeled beneath the central granulite terrane and appear to signify a lateral change in composition the moho lies at 44 45 km depth and is characterized by pronounced en echelon reflection segments suggesting compositional interlayering around the crust mantle boundary the velocity of the upper mantle is 8 0 8 2 km s an anomalous upper mantle layer with a reversed velocity of 8 6 km s dips eastward from 50 to 60 km depth beneath the southeastern grenville province our results indicate that remnants of magmatic intrusions that mobilized and thickened the crust during the grenvillian orogeny are preserved in the mid lower crust as a layered cumulate body tahawus complex and in the upper mantle as an eclogitic lens possibly delaminated from the overthickened crust during uplift of the southeastern grenville province

the crustal structure in central maine from coherency processed refraction data in 1984 the u s geological surcvey and the canadian department of energy mines and resources conducted an extensive seismic refraction experiment the quebec maine transect project as part of this project a 180 km long seismic refraction profile was recorded along the axis of the central maine synclinorium high near surface velocities of 6 0 6 2 km s made a conventional refraction analysis including first arrivals uninformative below about 10 km peak signal frequencies around 30 hz recorded at all offsets and a trace spacing of 800 m led to severe spatial aliasing effects for secondary arrivals on the record sections to allow a reliable deep structural interpretation a coherency processing technique was applied to the data to enhance phase coherent secondary arrivals in addition interpretation of a coincident wide angle reflection study provided constraints on the deep crustal velocities and structure the crust beneath the central maine synclinorium can be described by three major structural units the upper crust is interpreted as the metasedimentary rocks of the central maine synclinorium with velocities that range from 6 2 to 6 3 km s regions of relative lower velocity 6 0 6 1 km s within the upper crust are interpreted as granitic intrusions low velocity regions modeled at 2 7 km depth with velocities around 5 4 km s are interpreted as seismic evidence for folding and doubling within the upper crustal metasedimentary sequence at 12 15 km depth the base of the synclinorium appears alternately as a strong reflector indicating the presence of layering and also as a weak reflector especially ne of the sebago pluton a 4 km thick boundary layer at 24 km depth is interpreted as a major intracrustal shear zone in which the velocity increases from 6 4 to 6 8 km s the crust thickens from 36 to 40 km going from refraction experiment the quebec maine transect project as part of this project a 180 km long seismic refraction profile was recorded along the axis of the central maine synclinorium high near surf ace velocities of 6 0 6 2 km s made a conventional refraction analysis including first arrivals uninformative below about 10 km peak signal frequencies around 30 hz recorded at all offsets and a trace spacing of 800 m led to severe spatial aliasing effects for secondary arrivals on the record sections to allow a reliable deep structural interpretation a coherency processing technique was applied to the data to enhance phase coherent secondary arrivals in addition interpretation of a coincident wide angle reflection study provided constraints on the deep crustal velocities and structure the crust beneath the central maine synclinorium can be described by three major structural units the upper crust is interpreted as the metasedimentary rocks of the central maine synclinorium with velocities that range from 6 2 to 6 3 km s regions of relative lower velocity 6 0 6 1 km s within the upper crust are interpreted as granitic intrusions low velocity regions modeled at 2 7 km depth with velocities around 5 4 km s are interpreted as seismic evidence for folding and doubling within the upper crustal metasedimentary sequence at 12 15 km depth the base of the synclinorium appears alternately as a strong reflector indicating the presence of layering and also as a weak reflector especially ne of the sebago pluton a 4 km thick boundary layer at 24 km depth is interpreted as a major intracrustal shear zone in which the velocity increases from 6 4 to 6 8 km s the crust thickens from 36 to 40 km going from the ne to the sw end of the profile surface rocks at the sw end of the profile have a metamorphic depth of burial of at least 15 km indicating that the crust below the central maine synclinorium may have been thickened to at least 55 km during paleozoic collisions

slow slip events and seismic tremor at circum pacific subduction zones 1 it has been known for a long time that slip accompanying earthquakes accounts for only a fraction of plate tectonic displacements however only recently has a fuller spectrum of strain release processes including normal slow and silent earthquakes or slow slip events and continuous and episodic slip been observed and generated by numerical simulations of the earthquake cycle despite a profusion of observations and modeling studies the physical mechanism of slow slip events remains elusive the concurrence of seismic tremor with slow slip episodes in cascadia and southwestern japan provides insight into the process of slow slip a perceived similarity between subduction zone and volcanic tremor has led to suggestions that slow slip involves fluid migration on or near the plate interface alternatively evidence is accumulating to support the notion that tremor results from shear failure during slow slip global observations of the location spatial extent magnitude duration slip rate and periodicity of these aseismic slip transients indicate significant variation that may be exploited to better understand their generation most slow slip events occur just downdip of the seismogenic zone consistent with rate and state dependent frictional modeling that requires unstable to stable transitional properties for slow slip generation at a few convergent margins the occurrence of slow slip events within the seismogenic zone makes it highly likely that transitions in frictional properties exist there and are the loci of slow slip nucleation slow slip events perturb the surrounding stress field and may either increase or relieve stress on a fault bringing it closer to or farther from earthquake failure respectively this paper presents a review of slow slip events and related seismic tremor observed at plate boundaries worldwide with a focus on circum pacific subduction zones trends in global observations of slow slip events suggest that 1 slow slip is a common phenomena observed at almost all subduction zones with instrumentation capable of recording it 2 different frictional properties likely control fast versus slow slip 3 the depth range of slow slip may be related to the thermal properties of the plate interface and 4 the equivalent seismic moment of slow slip events is proportional to their duration mo different from the mo 3 scaling observed for earthquakes

stress development in heterogenetic lithosphere insights into earthquake processes in the new madrid seismic zone abstract the new madrid seismic zone nmsz in the midwestern united states was the site of several major m 6 8 8 earthquakes in 1811 1812 and remains seismically active although this region has been investigated extensively the ultimate controls on earthquake initiation and the duration of the seismicity remain unclear in this study we develop a finite element model for the central united states to conduct a series of numerical experiments with the goal of determining the impact of heterogeneity in the upper crust the lower crust and the mantle on earthquake nucleation and rupture processes regional seismic tomography data cite are utilized to infer the viscosity structure of the lithosphere which provide an important input to the numerical models results indicate that when differential stresses build in the central united states the stresses accumulating beneath the reelfoot rift in the nmsz are highly concentrated whereas the stresses below the geologically similar midcontinent rift system are comparatively low the numerical observations coincide with the observed distribution of seismicity throughout the region by comparing the numerical results with three reference models we argue that an extensive mantle low velocity zone beneath the nmsz produces differential stress localization in the layers above furthermore the relatively strong crust in this region exhibited by high seismic velocities enables the elevated stress to extend to the base of the ancient rift system reactivating fossil rifting faults and therefore triggering earthquakes these results show that if boundary displacements are significant the nmsz is able to localize tectonic stresses which may be released when faults close to failure are triggered by external processes such as melting of the laurentide ice sheet or rapid river incision

tectonic synthesis of the taconian orogeny in western new england a tectonic synthesis based on stratigraphic and structural analysis of western new england is proposed for the ordovician taconian orogeny it emphasizes arc continental collision in which ocean floor continental margin and ensialic rift rocks were imbricated westward in a repeatedly deformed accretionary wedge continued compression displaced segments of the north american sialic crust to the west and deformed the earlier emplaced slices of the taconic allochthons which were derived from the continental margin critical arguments for this synthesis are 1 the west to east stratigraphic relations among the basal rift clastic rocks of the dalton pinnacle and hoosac formations of late precambrian to early cambrian age 2 the stratigraphic and sedimentological similarities between the rocks of the lower taconic sequence and rocks in the pinney hollow and underhill slices to the east and north of the green mountain massif 3 the environmental similarities between the cambrian and lower ordovician section of the giddings brook slice and the age equivalent section in the st albans synclinorium 4 the presence of carbonate platform rocks as slivers between each of the successively higher and younger premetamorphic slices groups 1 and 2 of the taconic allochthons 5 the presence of synmetamorphic fault related structures in the youngest and highest slices group 3 of the taconic allochthons 6 the recognition of extensive thrust zones in the pre silurian eugeoclinal sequence east of the middle proterozoic basement of the housatonic berkshire green mountain and lincoln massifs 7 the location of the taconic root zone within the pre silurian eugeoclinal sequence 8 the recognition of numerous faults in the serpentinite belt 9 the similarity between the rocks of the moretown formation and modern fore arc basin sequences 10 the recognition that the volcanic arc continental complexes of the ascot weedon and bronson hill have been displaced westward over the moretown and or hawley formations along such faults as the bristol and coburn hill thrusts 11 the allochthonous and internally imbricated nature of the north american basement in the berkshire massif 12 the proposition that the housatonic green mountain and lincoln massifs as well as the middle proterozoic cored domes of southeastern vermont are also thick sialic slices of north american basement 13 the recognition of medium high to high pressure metamorphic mineral assemblages in the pre silurian eugeoclinal rocks of vermont and 14 the recent synthesis of isotopic age data by sutter and others 1985 on the basis of an analysis of the foregoing arguments and relationships a chronological sequence of seven structural sections between albany new york and the bronson hill anticlinorium in central massachusetts is used to depict the evolution of the taconian orogeny retrodeformed distances are based on structural overlap and restoration of the taconic slices to their depositional setting along the ancient north american continental margin these easterly younging diverticulated slices formed as a result of horizontal compression rather than gravity sliding this palinspastic analysis implies the following 1 approximately 1 000 km of shortening has occurred during the emplacement of the taconic allochthons and the subsequent imbrication of north american basement as thick sialic slices approximately 330 km of this shortening is attributed to multiple cleavage generations 2 repeated movement along such major surfaces as the cameron9s line whitcomb summit belvidere mountain thrust zone has buried the taconic root zone we suggest that the northern extension of this root zone is exposed to the east of the lincoln massif in vermont where the underhill pinney hollow and hazens notch formations are exposed these formations here considered thrust slices disappear along the belvidere mountain whitcomb summit thrust zone as it is traced southward into western massachusetts and western connecticut 3 taconian metamorphic rocks particularly the older medium high pressure rocks in northern vermont have been transported westward on such reactivated surfaces as the belvidere mountain thrust 4 the anticlinorial form of the middle proterozoic basement in the green mountain and lincoln massifs may have resulted from fault bend folding on deep mantle involved thrusts that developed late in the taconian orogeny

toward a consistent model for strain accrual and release for the new madrid seismic zone central united states 1 at the heart of the conundrum of seismogenesis in the new madrid seismic zone is the apparently substantial discrepancy between low strain rate and high recent seismic moment release in this study we revisit the magnitudes of the four principal 1811 1812 earthquakes using intensity values determined from individual assessments from four experts using these values and the grid search method of bakun and wentworth 1997 we estimate magnitudes around 7 0 for all four events values that are significantly lower than previously published magnitude estimates based on macroseismic intensities we further show that the strain rate predicted from postglacial rebound is sufficient to produce a sequence with the moment release of one mmax6 8 every 500 years a rate that is much lower than previous estimates of late holocene moment release however mw6 8 is at the low end of the uncertainty range inferred from analysis of intensities for the largest 1811 1812 event we show that mw6 8 is also a reasonable value for the largest main shock given a plausible rupture scenario one can also construct a range of consistent models that permit a somewhat higher mmax with a longer average recurrence rate it is thus possible to reconcile predicted strain and seismic moment release rates with alternative models one in which 1811 1812 sequences occur every 500 years with the largest events being mmax 6 8 or one in which sequences occur on average less frequently with mmax of 7 0 both models predict that the late holocene rate of activity will continue for the next few to 10 thousand years

crustal velocity and moho topography in central new hampshire the white mountain batholith in central new hampshire is a major plutonic topographic and gravimetric feature superimposed on the ne sw trending regional pattern of accreted terranes in northeastern north america compressional and shear wave arrival times from a two dimensional seismic array experiment are used to constrain a one dimensional crustal velocity model and moho topography for central new hampshire our deployment a piggyback on the ontario new york new england refraction experiment onynex recorded 10 explosive sources using 20 three component digital seismometers the crust can be modeled as 34 5 km thick and with three layers having linear gradients without midcrust discontinuities for this model p velocities are 6 1 6 2 km s in the upper crust and 6 2 6 8 km s in the lower crust s velocities are 3 5 3 7 km s in the upper crust and 3 7 3 9 km s in the lower crust because moho reflections comprise our principal constraints on lower crustal velocities there is a tradeoff between lower crustal velocity and crustal thickness in particular an average crustal thickness of 39 40 km reported elsewhere in new england is not precluded by our data the poisson s ratio for the crust varies between 0 23 0 26 in the lower range of values reported for crustal minerals our dataset is consistent with 2 lateral variation in the upper crust underlying the new hampshire and white mountain plutonic series but larger variations deeper than 15 km if modeled in terms of moho topography pmp traveltime residuals and pmp p residuals suggest thicker crust 36 37 km under the white mountain batholith with thinner crust 33 34 km to the east and southwest of the white mountains such topography of the moho correlates well with both the surface elevation and the bouguer gravity anomaly in the region gravity data do not favor the simplest alternative model a thick low velocity granitic lower crust beneath the batholith using a simplified density model roughly 30 35 of the gravity anomaly in the white mountain region can be modeled as the result of the inferred moho depression requiring only a 5 km low density root for the white mountain batholith the short wavelength of the moho topography is consistent with a very low flexural rigidity for the lithosphere 1021 nt m suggesting that the plutons were intruded into a weak lithosphere a rapid transition from positive to negative pmp residuals falls along a line that parallels the onshore extension of the kelvin seamounts and may correspond to the line of weakness hypothesized by sykes 1978 to have been tectonically active during the opening of the north atlantic ocean at 100 200 ma

long aftershock sequences within continents and implications for earthquake hazard assessment one of the most powerful features of plate tectonics is that the known plate motions give insight into both the locations and average recurrence interval of future large earthquakes on plate boundaries plate tectonics gives no insight however into where and when earthquakes will occur within plates because the interiors of ideal plates should not deform as a result within plate interiors assessments of earthquake hazards rely heavily on the assumption that the locations of small earthquakes shown by the short historical record reflect continuing deformation that will cause future large earthquakes here however we show that many of these recent earthquakes are probably aftershocks of large earthquakes that occurred hundreds of years ago we present a simple model predicting that the length of aftershock sequences varies inversely with the rate at which faults are loaded aftershock sequences within the slowly deforming continents are predicted to be significantly longer than the decade typically observed at rapidly loaded plate boundaries these predictions are in accord with observations so the common practice of treating continental earthquakes as steady state seismicity overestimates the hazard in presently active areas and underestimates it elsewhere

wide angle deep crustal reflections in the northern appalachians summary seismic refraction data collected in the northern appalachians provide an unusual opportunity to use wide angle reflections to examine the lower crust and upper mantle the pmp phase clearly identified on several hundred records has been used to construct an isopach map of the crust which shows a stepwise regional thickening of the crust beneath the axis of the appalachians the data have been examined to times of up to 40 s two way travel time to investigate the possibility of coherent upper mantle reflections such as those recently observed by birps on near vertical data northwest of britain although substantial coherent energy appears after the pmp phase synthetic seismogram modelling shows that all of these arrivals are explicable by s phases converted phases and multiples from within the crust we conclude that in this region of the northern appalachians we have not detected any significant regionally extensive reflecting horizons within the upper mantle

crustal deformation in the new madrid seismic zone and the role of postseismic processes global navigation satellite system data across the new madrid seismic zone nmsz in the central united states over the period from 2000 through 2014 are analyzed and modeled with several deformation mechanisms including the following 1 creep on subsurface dislocations 2 postseismic frictional afterslip and viscoelastic relaxation from the 1811 1812 and 1450 earthquakes in the nmsz and 3 regional strain in agreement with previous studies a dislocation creeping at about 4 mm yr between 12 and 20 km depth along the downdip extension of the reelfoot fault reproduces the observations well we find that a dynamic model of postseismic frictional afterslip from the 1450 and february 1812 reelfoot fault events can explain this creep kinematic and dynamic models involving the cottonwood grove fault provide minimal predictive power this is likely due to the smaller size of the december 1811 event on the cottonwood grove fault and a distribution of stations better suited to constrain localized strain across the reelfoot fault regional compressive strain across the nmsz is found to be less than 3 10 9 yr if much of the present day surface deformation results from afterslip it is likely that many of the earthquakes we see today in the nmsz are aftershocks from the 1811 1812 new madrid earthquakes despite this conclusion our results are consistent with observations and models of intraplate earthquake clustering given this and the recent paleoseismic history of the region we suggest that seismic hazard is likely to remain significant

the earthquake potential of the new madrid seismic zone the fault system responsible for new madrid seismicity has generated temporally clustered very large earthquakes in a d 900 100 years and a d 1450 150 years as well as in 1811 1812 given the uncertainties in dating liquefaction features the time between the past three new madrid events may be as short as 200 years and as long as 800 years with an average of 500 years this advance in understanding the late holocene history of the new madrid seismic zone and thus the contemporary tectonic behavior of the associated fault system was made through studies of hundreds of earthquake induced liquefaction features at more than 250 sites across the new madrid region we have found evidence that prehistoric sand blows like those that formed during the 1811 1812 earthquakes are probably com pound structures resulting from multiple earthquakes closely clustered in time or earthquake sequences from the spatial distribution and size of sand blows and their sedimentary units we infer the source zones and estimate the magnitudes of earth quakes within each sequence and thereby characterize the detailed behavior of the fault system it appears that fault rupture was complex and that the central branch of the seismic zone produced very large earthquakes during the a d 900 and a d 1450 events as well as in 1811 1812 on the basis of a minimum recurrence rate of 200 years we are now entering the period during which the next 1811 1812 type event could occur

elastodynamic analysis for slow tectonic loading with spontaneous rupture episodes on faults with rate and state dependent friction we present an efficient and rigorous numerical procedure for calculating the elastodynamic response of a fault subjected to slow tectonic loading processes of long duration within which there are episodes of rapid earthquake failure this is done for a general class of rate and state dependent friction laws with positive direct velocity effect the algorithm allows us to treat accurately within a single computational procedure loading intervals of thousands of years and to calculate for each earthquake episode initially aseismic accelerating slip prior to dynamic rupture the rupture propagation itself rapid post seismic deformation which follows and also ongoing creep slippage throughout the loading period in velocity strengthening fault regions the methodology is presented using the two dimensional 2 d antiplane spectral formulation and can be readily extended to the 2 d in plane and 3 d spectral formulations and with certain modifications to the space time boundary integral formulations as well as to their discretized development using finite difference or finite element methods the methodology can be used to address a number of important issues such as fault operation under low overall stress interaction of dynamic rupture propagation with pore pressure development patterns of rupture propagation in events nucleated naturally as a part of a sequence the earthquake nucleation process earthquake sequences on faults with heterogeneous frictional properties and or normal stress and others the procedure is illustrated for a 2 d crustal strike slip fault model with depth variable properties for lower values of the state evolution distance of the friction law small events appear the nucleation phases of the small and large events are very similar suggesting that the size of an event is determined by the conditions on the fault segments the event is propagating into rather than by the nucleation process itself we demonstrate the importance of incorporating slow tectonic loading with elastodynamics by evaluating two simplified approaches one with the slow tectonic loading but no wave effects and the other with all dynamic effects included but much higher loading rate

postseismic deformation due to the mw 6 0 2004 parkfield earthquake stress driven creep on a fault with spatially variable rate and state friction parameters 1 we investigate the coseismic and postseismic deformation due to the m w 6 0 2004 parkfield california earthquake we produce coseismic and postseismic slip models by inverting data from an array of 14 continuous gps stations from the scign network kinematic inversions of postseismic gps data over a time period of 3 years show that afterslip occurred in areas of low seismicity and low coseismic slip predominantly at a depth of 5 km inversions suggest that coseismic stress increases were relaxed by predominantly aseismic afterslip on a fault plane the kinetics of afterslip is consistent with a velocity strengthening friction generalized to include the case of infinitesimal velocities we performed simulations of stress driven creep using a numerical model that evaluates the time dependent deformation due to coseismic stress changes in a viscoelastoplastic half space starting with a coseismic slip distribution we compute the time dependent evolution of afterslip on a fault plane and the associated displacements at the gps stations data are best explained by a rate strengthening model with frictional parameter a b 7 x 10 3 at a high end of values observed in laboratory experiments we also find that the geodetic moment due to creep is a factor of 100 greater than the cumulative seismic moment of aftershocks the rate of aftershocks in the top 10 km of the seismogenic zone mirrors the kinetics of afterslip suggesting that postearthquake seismicity is governed by loading from the nearby aseismic creep the san andreas fault around parkfield is deduced to have large along strike variations in rate and state frictional properties velocity strengthening areas may be responsible for the separation of the coseismic slip in two distinct asperities and for the ongoing aseismic creep occurring between the velocity weakening patches after the 2004 rupture

southern california permanent gps geodetic array spatial filtering of daily positions for estimating coseismic and postseismic displacements induced by the 1992 landers earthquake the june 28 1992 m w 7 3 landers california earthquake was the first earthquake to be surveyed by a continuously operating global positioning system gps array the coordinate time series of seven sites are evaluated for station displacements during an interval of 100 days centered on the day of the earthquake we employ a new spatial filtering technique that removes common mode errors from the coordinate time series this approach provides precise estimates of site specific displacements compared to the cumbersome method of analyzing baselines between pairs of stations all sites indicate significant coseismic horizontal displacements of 5 65 mm with uncertainties of 1 2 mm horizontal displacements are in general agreement with elastic dislocation models in particular for sites closer to the epicenter vertical displacements range from 13 to 7 mm with uncertainties of 2 4 mm the observed vertical displacements in all cases show 5 10 mm more subsidence than expected from geodetic and seismic geologic models significant postseismic horizontal displacements totaling 6 2 mm 10 20 of the coseismic displacement are detected at the three sites closest to the epicenter these displacements are modeled as a short term exponential relaxation with a decay time of 22 10 days superimposed on a longer term linear interseismic trend scaling the observed coseismic and postseismic displacements at one of the sites with the distance to the epicenter provides a measure of site strain which agrees well with the direction and magnitude determined from more precise laser strain meter data the time series do not show any detectable preseismic displacements

descent of the ancient farallon slab drives localized mantle flow below the new madrid seismic zone 1 the great earthquake sequence that occurred in the central mississippi river valley during the winter of 1811 1812 is unprecedented in the historical record of seismicity within stable continental plate interiors we show using viscous flow models based on high resolution seismic tomography that the descent of the ancient farallon slab into the deep mantle beneath central north america induces a highly localized flow directly below the new madrid seismic zone nmsz this localization arises because of structural variability in the farallon slab and the low viscosity of the sub lithospheric upper mantle and it represents a heretofore unrecognized and possibly significant driving mechanism for the enigmatic intraplate seismicity

southern california permanent gps geodetic array error analysis of daily position estimates and site velocities we analyze time series of daily positions estimated from data collected by 10 continuously monitoring global positioning system gps sites in southern california during the 19 month period between the june 28 1992 mw 7 3 landers and january 17 1994 mw 6 7 northridge earthquakes each time series exhibits a linear tectonic signal and significant colored noise spectral power at frequencies in the range 5 yr 1 to 0 5 d 1 is dominated by white noise or possibly fractal white noise and is several orders of magnitude higher than what would be expected from random walk noise in this short period range attributed by others to geodetic monument motions estimating a single slope for the time series power spectra suggests fractal white noise processes with spectral indices of about 0 4 site velocity uncertainties assuming this fractal white noise model are 2 4 times larger than uncertainties obtained assuming a purely white noise model a combination white noise plus flicker noise spectral index of 1 model also fits the data and suggests that the velocity uncertainties should be 3 6 times larger than for the white noise model we cannot adequately distinguish between these two noise models nor can we rule out the possibility of a random walk signal at the lowest frequencies these questions await the analysis of longer time series in any case reducing the magnitude of low frequency colored noise is critical and appears to be best accomplished by building sites with deeply anchored and braced monuments otherwise rate uncertainties estimated from continuous gps measurements may not be improved significantly compared to those estimated from infrequent campaign mode measurements

a constitutive law for rate of earthquake production and its application to earthquake clustering seismicity is modeled as a sequence of earthquake nucleation events in which the distribution of initial conditions over the population of nucleation sources and stress ing history control the timing of earthquakes the model is implemented using solutions for nucleation of unstable fault slip on faults with experimentally derived rate and state dependent fault properties this yields a general state variable constitutive formulation for rate of earthquake production resulting from an applied stressing history to illustrate and test the model some characteristics of seismicity following a stress step have been explored it is proposed that various features of earthquake clustering arise from sensi tivity of nucleation times to the stress changes induced by prior earthquakes the model gives the characteristic omori aftershock decay law and interprets aftershock parameters in terms of stress change and stressing rate earthquake data appear to support a model prediction that aftershock duration defined as the time for rates to return to the back ground seismicity rate is proportional to mainshock recurrence time observed spatial and temporal clustering of earthquake pairs arises as a consequence of the spatial depen dence of stress changes of the first event of the pair and stress sensitive time dependent nucleation applications of the constitutive formulation are not restricted to the simple stress step models investigated here it may be applied to stressing histories of arbitrary complexity the apparent success at modeling clustering phenomena suggests the possibil ity of using the formulation to estimate short to intermediate term earthquake probabil ities following occurrence of other earthquakes and for inversion of temporal variations of earthquake rates for changes in driving stress

the acadian thermal history of the merrimack synclinorium in new hampshire the acadian structural history of the merrimack synclinorium involves a phase of nappe emplacement and thrusting at 400 m y b p followed by a second thickening event before 370 m y b p at the end of this phase the present erosion surface was buried at pressures of 6 to 8 kbar and subsequently experienced peak metamorphic temperatures in the range of 500 c to 650 c the thermal history of the acadian metamor phism of the merrimack synclinorium is examined in a well studied area of central new hampshire to determine the conditions required for the high grade metamorphism of the region constraints are provided by metamorphic pressure estimates by information on the erosional history and by present day heat flow determinations in the synclinorium one dimensional heat transfer calculations show that the high grade metamorphism could readily have been produced during thermal relaxation of the thickened continental crust under conditions of normal continental heat flow these conditions also permit the me

velocity structure of the pamir hindu kush region possible evidence of subducted crust the arrival times of compressional p and shear s waves from approximately 580 microearthquakes recorded by a temporary array in the pamir hindu kush region in central asia are used to deduce one and three dimensional velocity structures of this region the results for one dimensional structures imply that the moho is at 70 5 depth also there is a velocity reversal near 160 km depth which is inferred to be the beginning of the low velocity zone this reversal continues to depths of approximately 230 km below 230 km velocities are somewhat higher than those of normal mantle at similar depths 9 3 km s versus 8 4 km s for p waves the outstanding feature of the results for three dimensional velocity structures is a broad 40 km centrally located region with 8 to 10 lower velocities than those in the surrounding regions this low velocity region envelopes the seismic zone at depths between 70 and 150 km the region may actually extend beyond these depths but the results for shallower and deeper structure lack sufficient resolution to decide several tests using both hypothetical and real data were performed to estimate the reliability of the three dimensional solutions the results of these tests suggest that the inferred velocities are reasonably accurate representations of the average velocities in the blocks although one must be cautious of the effects of averaging in interpreting the solution the low velocity region is inferred to be a manifestation of substantial quantities of subducted continental crust therefore while subduction has occurred in the pamir hindu kush the results of the three dimensional inversions suggest that continental rather than only oceanic lithosphere has been subducted to depths of at least 150 km appendices are available with the entire article on microfiche order from american geophysical union 2000 florida avenue n w washington d c 20009 document j81 013 1 00 payment must accompany order

modeling afterslip and aftershocks following the 1992 landers earthquake one way to probe the rheology of the lithosphere and fault zones is to analyze the temporal evolution of deformation following a large earthquake in such a case the lithosphere responds to a known stress change that can be assessed from earthquake slip models constrained from seismology and geodesy here we model the postseismic response of a fault zone that is assumed to obey a rate strengthening rheology where the frictional stress varies as a ln e e being the deformation rate and a 0 a rheological parameter the model is simple enough that these parameters can be estimated by inversion of postseismic geodetic data we apply this approach to the analysis of geodetic displacements following the m w 7 3 1992 landers earthquake the model adjusts well the measured displacements and implies a 0 47 0 53 mpa in addition we show that aftershocks and afterslip follow the same temporal evolution and that the spatiotemporal distribution of aftershocks is consistent with the idea that they are driven by reloading of the seismogenic zone resulting from frictional afterslip

variability of crustal attenuation in the northeastern united states from lg waves high quality digital seismograms from eight pairs of collocated earthquakes in the northeastern united states were analyzed to determine accurate source spectrum corner frequencies this was accomplished by applying the empirical green s function method to regional pg and lg or sg phases recorded by vertical component seismographs of the u s national seismographic network usnsn and the lamont doherty cooperative seismographic network lcsn stations the frequency band used was 0 5 16 hz for usnsn and 1 30 hz for lcsn records the source spectrum corner frequencies for the eight larger earthquakes of the event pairs magnitudes between mb lg 2 5 4 1 range from about 4 3 to 16 3 hz based on the comer frequencies obtained independently from the empirical green s function analysis sg or lg wave displacement amplitude spectra up to 30 hz were used to determine the crustal average q factors along 87 event station paths these paths crossed diverse tectonic features in the northeastern united states and were in the epicentral distance range of 41 to 1394 km we found that within the northeastern united states the crustal average qlg we obtained was frequency dependent and showed spatial variability which correlated fairly well with the major tectonic features in the region our attenuation measurements indicated low lg attenuation in the adirondack mountains with exposed precambrian grenville basement with qlg 905 f0 40 high lg attenuation in the central appalachian province with qlg 561 586 f0 46 0 47 and an intermediate lg attenuation in northern new england appalachians with q 705 f0 41

faulting along the southern margin of reelfoot lake tennessee abstract the reelfoot lake basin tennessee is structurally complex and of great interest seismologically because it is located at the junction of two seismicity trends of the new madrid seismic zone to better understand the structure at this location a 7 5 km long seismic reflection profile was acquired on roads along the southern margin of reelfoot lake the seismic line reveals a westerly dipping basin bounded on the west by the reelfoot reverse fault zone the ridgely right lateral transpressive fault zone on the east and the cottonwood grove right lateral strike slip fault in the middle of the basin the displacement history of the reelfoot fault zone appears to be the same as the ridgely fault zone thus suggesting that movement on these fault zones has been synchronous perhaps since the cretaceous since the reelfoot and ridgely fault systems are believed responsible for two of the main shocks of 1811 1812 the fault history revealed in the reelfoot lake profile suggests that multiple mainshocks may be typical of the new madrid seismic zone the ridgely fault zone consists of two northeast striking faults that lie at the base of and within the mississippi valley bluff line this fault zone has 15 m of post eocene up to the east displacement and appears to locally control the eastern limit of mississippi river migration the cottonwood grove fault zone passes through the center of the seismic line and has approximately 5 m of up to the east displacement correlation of the cottonwood grove fault with a possible fault scarp on the floor of reelfoot lake and the new markham fault north of the lake suggests the cottonwood grove fault may change to a northerly strike at reelfoot lake thereby linking the northeast trending zones of seismicity in the new madrid seismic zone