flowgo a kinematic thermo rheological model for lava flowing in a channel we present a kinematic self adaptive numerical model to describe the down flow thermal and rheological evolution of channel contained lava as our control volume of lava advances down a channel it cools and crystallizes an increasingly thick and extensive surface crust grows and its heat budget and rheology evolve by estimating down flow heat and velocity loss our model calculates the point at which the control volume becomes stationary giving the maximum distance lava flowing in the channel can extend modeled effusion rates velocities widths surface crust parameters heat budget cooling temperature crystallinity viscosity and yield strength all compare well with field data collected during eruptions at mauna loa k lauea and etna modeled lengths of 25 27 2 5 5 7 and 0 59 0 83 km compare with measured lengths of 25 27 4 and 0 75 km for the three flows respectively over proximal flow portions we calculate cooling crystallization viscosity and yield strength of 1 10 c km 1 0 001 0 01 volume fraction km 1 103 104 pa s and 10 3 102 pa respectively at the flow front cooling crystallization viscosity and yield strength increase to 100 c km 1 0 1 volume fraction km 1 106 107 pa s and 103 104 pa respectively all of which combine to cause the lava to stop flowing our model presents a means of a analyzing lava flow thermo rheological relationships b identifying important factors in determining how far a channel fed flow can extend c assessing lava flow hazard and d reconstructing flow regimes at prehistoric unobserved or remote flows

devensian lateglacial environmental changes in britain a multi proxy environmental record from llanilid south wales uk abstract a multi proxy environmental record for the devensian weichselian lateglacial and early holocene periods which includes pollen plant macrofossil coleopteran geochemical and stable isotope data is described from a site at llanilid south wales uk the geochronology of the sequence is derived from two age depth models which show a broad measure of agreement over much of the profile this data set provides the basis for a detailed reconstruction of changing environmental conditions in western britain during the transition from the last cold stage to the present holocene interglacial ca 15 000 10 000 cal yr bp two marked cooling episodes are recorded during the course of the lateglacial interstadial greenland interstadial 1 with mean july temperatures falling by more than 5 c from a maximum of around 20 c during the early interstadial and by a further 4 5 c around 13 100 cal yr bp the initial drop in temperature led to a reduction in juniperus scrub while the second and more abrupt temperature decline resulted in a significant contraction in areas of betula woodland a relatively slight and short lived warming during the later interstadial enabled tree birch to expand once again mean july temperatures of 10 11 c characterised the loch lomond younger dryas stadial greenland stadial 1 between ca 12 600 and 11 400 cal yr bp during which time a scrub tundra with betula salix and a range of open habitat taxa became established locally the onset of the holocene interglacial at ca 11 400 cal yr bp is marked by an abrupt temperature rise of the order of 9 c and by the rapid expansion of betula woodland the llanilid palaeoclimate record is similar to that from the gransmoor site in northeast england and also to the climatic sequence inferred from the grip ice core particularly during the later part of the lateglacial interstadial ca 14 000 12 600 cal yr bp during the loch lomond younger dryas stadial and in the early holocene the llanilid chronology is less secure during the early part of the lateglacial interstadial pre 14 000 cal yr bp but it is possible that warming may have begun earlier in this part of western britain than in greenland

monitoring active volcanism with the autonomous sciencecraft experiment on eo 1 abstract the ability to monitor and rapidly react to remote detection of volcanic activity has been greatly improved through use of the autonomous sciencecraft experiment ase an advanced software application installed on a spacecraft in earth orbit ase is a nasa new millennium program experiment demonstrating science driven autonomous command and control of a spacecraft flying on the earth observing 1 eo 1 spacecraft ase successfully detected thermal emission from the mt erebus lava lake on 7 may 2004 having analyzed a hyperion hyperspectral data product on board the spacecraft eo 1 was re tasked by ase to obtain a follow up observation 7 h later and sent a notification of detection of volcanic activity to the ground the entire process was carried out autonomously initial acquisition to receipt on the ground of the positive detection took less than 3 h a process that without ase would have taken weeks the ase thermal classifier has detected several styles of effusive volcanic activity active lava lakes pahoehoe flow fields open channel flows and lava domes ase successfully demonstrated that science driven spacecraft operation greatly enhances science return per returned byte through the identification of the most valuable data allowing prioritization of downlink products and the discarding of null data sets this technology has applications on missions elsewhere in the solar system modified thermal classifiers can be used for detecting and monitoring active volcanism on the jovian satellite io the neptunian moon triton and searching for active volcanism on mars and icy satellites the success of ase is an incentive for future instrument and mission designers to consider on board data processing requirements especially data storage capacity number of processors and processor speed and ram in order to take advantage of this flight proven technology

spaceborne observations of the 2000 bezymianny kamchatka eruption the integration of high resolution aster data into near real time monitoring using avhrr abstract since its launch in december 1999 the advanced spaceborne thermal emission and reflection radiometer aster instrument has been observing over 1300 of the world s volcanoes during the day and night and at different times of the year at the onset of an eruption the temporal frequency of these regularly scheduled observations can be increased to as little as 1 3 days at higher latitudes however even this repeat time is not sufficient for near real time monitoring which is on the order of minutes to hours using poorer spatial resolution 1 km pixel instruments the eruption of bezymianny volcano kamchatkan peninsula russia in march 2000 was detected by the alaska volcano observatory avo and also initiated an increased observation frequency for aster a complete framework of the eruptive cycle from april 2000 to january 2001 was established with the advanced very high resolution radiometer avhrr data used to monitor the large eruptions and produce the average yearly background state for the volcano twenty nearly cloud free aster scenes 2 days and 18 nights show large thermal anomalies covering tens to hundreds of pixels and reveal both the actively erupting and restive background state of the volcano aster short wave infrared swir and thermal infrared tir data were also used to validate the recovered kinetic temperatures from the larger avhrr pixels as well as map the volcanic products and monitor the thermal features on the summit dome and surrounding small pyroclastic flows these anomalies increase to greater than 90 c prior to a larger eruption sequence in october 2000 in addition aster has the first multispectral spaceborne tir capability which allowed for the modeling of micrometer scale surface roughness vesicularity on the active lava dome where coupled with ongoing operational monitoring programs like those at avo aster data become extremely useful in discrimination of small surface targets in addition to providing enhanced volcanic mapping capabilities

time averaged discharge rate of subaerial lava at kīlauea volcano hawai i measured from tandem x interferometry implications for magma supply and storage during 2011 2013 differencing digital elevation models dems derived from terrasar add on for digital elevation measurements tandem x synthetic aperture radar imagery provides a measurement of elevation change over time on the east rift zone ezr of k lauea volcano hawai i the effusion of lava causes changes in topography when these elevation changes are summed over the area of an active lava flow it is possible to quantify the volume of lava emplaced at the surface during the time spanned by the tandem x data a parameter that can be difficult to measure across the entirety of an 100 km2 lava flow field using ground based techniques or optical remote sensing data based on the differences between multiple tandem x derived dems collected days to weeks apart the mean dense rock equivalent time averaged discharge rate of lava at k lauea between mid 2011 and mid 2013 was approximately 2 m3 s which is about half the long term average rate over the course of k lauea s 1983 present erz eruption this result implies that there was an increase in the proportion of lava stored versus erupted a decrease in the rate of magma supply to the volcano or some combination of both during this time period in addition to constraining the time averaged discharge rate of lava and the rates of magma supply and storage topographic change maps derived from space based tandem x data provide insights into the four dimensional evolution of k lauea s erz lava flow field tandem x data are a valuable complement to other space air and ground based observations of eruptive activity at k lauea and offer great promise at locations around the world for aiding with monitoring not just volcanic eruptions but any hazardous activity that results in surface change including landslides floods earthquakes and other natural and anthropogenic processes

acid sulfate alteration of fluorapatite basaltic glass and olivine by hydrothermal vapors and fluids implications for fumarolic activity and secondary phosphate phases in sulfate rich paso robles soil at gusev crater mars 1 phosphate rich rocks and a nearby phosphate rich soil paso robles were analyzed in gusev crater mars by the mars exploration rover spirit and interpreted to be highly altered possibly by hydrothermal or fumarolic alteration of primary phosphate rich material to test mineral phases resulting from such alteration we performed hydrothermal acid vapor and acid fluid experiments on olivine ol fluorapatite ap and basaltic glass gl as single phases and a mixture of phases minerals formed include ca al fe and mg sulfates with different hydration states anhydrite bassanite gypsum alunogen hexahydrite and pentahydrite phosphate bearing minerals formed included monocalcium phosphate monohydrate mcp acid vapor and acid fluid alteration of fluorapatite only and ferrian giniite acid fluid alteration of the ol gl ap mixture mcp is likely present in paso robles if primary ca phosphate minerals reacted with sulfuric acid with little transport of phosphate under fluid rock ratios allowing transport of phosphate a ferric phosphate phase such as ferrian giniite might form instead mossbauer measurements of ferrian giniite bearing alteration products and synthetic ferrian giniite are consistent with spirit s mossbauer measurements of the ferric bearing phase in paso robes soil but are also consistent with ferric sulfate phases in the low p soil arad samra therefore mossbauer data alone do not constrain the fluid rock ratio however the excess iron hematite in paso robles soil which implies aqueous transport combined with our laboratory experiments suggest acid sulfate alteration in a hydrothermal fumarolic environment at fluid rock ratios sufficient to allow dissolution transport and precipitation of secondary chemical components including a ferric phosphate such as ferrian giniite

repeating earthquake activities associated with the philippine sea plate subduction in the kanto district central japan a new plate configuration revealed by interplate aseismic slips abstract we detect repeating earthquakes associated with the philippine sea plate subduction to reveal the plate configuration in the kanto district we find 140 repeating earthquake groups with 428 events by waveform similarity analysis most repeating earthquakes in the eastern part of the kanto district occur with a regular time interval they have thrust type focal mechanisms and are distributed near the upper surface of the philippine sea plate these observations indicate that the repeating earthquakes there occur as a repetition of ruptures on the isolated patches distributed on the plate boundary owing to the concentration of stress caused by aseismic slips in the surrounding areas this shows that the distributions of repeating earthquakes suggest the aseismic slips in the surrounding areas of small patches we determine spatial distributions of repeating earthquakes in the eastern part of the kanto district and find that they correspond to the upper boundary of the philippine sea plate that is the upper boundary of the oceanic crust layer of the philippine sea plate the plate geometry around choshi is newly constrained by repeating earthquake data and a rather flat geometry in the eastern part of the kanto district is revealed the obtained geometry suggests uplift of the philippine sea plate due to the collision with the pacific plate beneath choshi repeating earthquakes in the western part of the kanto district have extremely shorter recurrence times and their focal mechanisms are not of the thrust types these repeating earthquakes are classified as burst type activity and likely to occur on the preexistent fault planes which are distributed around the collision zone between the philippine sea plate and the inland plate the variation among the repeating earthquake activities in the kanto district indicates that regular repetition of repeating earthquakes is possible only on the plate boundary with a smooth and simple geometry

the multi scale influence of topography on lava flow morphology predicting lava flow pathways is important for understanding effusive eruptions and for volcanic hazard assessment one particular challenge is understanding the interplay between flow pathways and substrate topography that is often rough on a variety of scales 1 m to 10 s km to study this problem we develop a lava flow modeling framework that combines spectral analysis of substrate roughness with a new lava flow model multiflow the mutliflow model includes a multiple flow direction routing algorithm in conjunction with a thresholding function that limits the extent of the flow comparison of multiflow results with recent flows on mt etna mauna loa and kilauea suggests that multiflow accurately predicts the influence of topography on lava flow paths and morphology spectral filtering of pre flow digital elevation models allow us to quantify which topographic wavelengths are most important for influencing lava flow pathways filtering constrains the height of pre existing objects that flow overtop as a measure of flow thickness and aids in identifying divergence of flow pathways from pre eruptive topography that would result from modification of the substrate by the flow low pass filter cutoffs in the range of 10 100 m significantly improve the fit between modeled flow and real flow paths suggesting a sensitivity of lava flow paths to such mesoscale topographic wavelengths the three case studies are generalized with a parameter investigation of lava flow branching on synthetic red noise topography we demonstrate that the tendency of a flow to branch or not can be predicted on the basis of spectral characteristics of the underlying surface we end by examining spectral signatures associated with volcanic and erosional processes on the island of hawai i that may aid in forecasting lava flow pathways and deconvolving competing topographic construction and erosion in volcanic landscapes on longer timescales

annual rainfall and nitrogen isotope correlation in macropod collagen application as a palaeoprecipitation indicator abstract collagen has been extracted and analysed for 15 n from modern kangaroos macropods macropus eugenii m antilopinus m fuliginosus m rufus m robustus in western australia and south australia comparison of nitrogen isotope ratios with annual rainfall for the respective areas produced a good negative correlation for macropods but not for other marsupials this may be related to metabolic adaptations in macropods to compete against water loss hence the correlation between 15 n and annual rainfall may be species specific nitrogen isotope analyses on collagenic material extracted from fossil macropods macropus spp have been determined from two late pleistocene deposits in south australia corroboration with spore pollen and sedimentological data confirm that 15 n of collagenic material can be used as a proxy for palaeoprecipitation levels in australia this has great potential for understanding palaeoclimatic changes especially drought periods in australia during the pleistocene

the chronology of abrupt climate change and late upper palaeolithic human adaptation in europe abstract this paper addresses the possible connections between the onset of human expansionineuropefollowingthelastglacialmaximum andthetimingofabruptclimatewarmingattheonsetof thelateglacial bo lling allerod interstadial thereare opposing views as towhether ornot humanpopulations and activities were directly forced by climate change based on different comparisonsbetween archaeological and environmental data we review the geochronological assumptions andapproaches on which data comparisons have been attempted in the past and argue that theuncertainties presently associated with age models based on calibrated radiocarbon dates precluderobust testing of the competing models particularly when comparing the data to non radiocarbon basedtimescalessuchasthegreenlandicecorerecords thepaperconcludeswithsomesuggestionsastothestepsthatwillbenecessaryifmorerobusttestsofthemodelsaretobedevelopedinthefuture copyright 2006 john wiley sons ltd keywords lateglacial radiocarbon calibration intcal04 lake suigetsu palaeotemperature reconstruction human adaptation tephrochronology

calculation of lava effusion rates from landsat tm data we present a thermal model to calculate the total thermal flux for lava flowing in tubes on the surface or under shallow water once defined we use the total thermal flux to estimate effusion rates for active flows at kilauea hawaii on two dates input parameters were derived from landsat thematic mapper tm field and laboratory measurements using these parameters we obtain effusion rates of 1 76 0 57 and 0 78 0 27 m3 s 1 on 23 july and 11 october 1991 respectively these rates are corroborated by field measurements of 1 36 0 14 and 0 89 0 09 m3 s 1 for the same dates kauahikaua et al 1996 using weather satellite avhrr data of lower spatial resolution we obtain similar effusion rates for an additional 26 dates between the two tm derived measurements we assume that although total effusion rates at the source declined over the period the shut down of the ocean entry meant that effusion rates for the surface flows alone remained stable such synergetic use of remotely sensed data provides measurements that can a contribute to monitoring flow field evolution and b provide reliable numerical data for input into rheological and thermal models we look forward to being able to produce estimates for effusion rates using data from high spatial resolution sensors in the earth observing system eos era such as landsat 7 the hyperspectral imager the advanced spaceborne thermal emission spectrometer and the advanced land imager

modvolc near real time thermal monitoring of global volcanism modvolc is a non interactive algorithm developed at the hawaii institute of geophysics and planetology higp that uses low spatial resolution 1 km pixel size infrared satellite data acquired by the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer modis to map the global distribution of volcanic thermal anomalies in near real time modvolc scans the level 1b modis data stream on a pixel by pixel basis for evidence of pixel and sub pixel sized high temperature radiators once a hot spot has been identified its details location emitted spectral radiance time satellite observation geometry are written to ascii text files and transferred via ftp to higp from where the results are disseminated via the internet http modis higp hawaii edu in this paper we review the underlying principles upon which the algorithm is based before presenting some of the results and data that have been obtained since its inception we show how modvolc reliably detects thermal anomalies at a large number of persistently and sporadically active volcanoes that encompass the full range of common eruptive styles including erebus antarctica colima mexico karymsky kamchatka popocatepetl mexico etna italy and nyiragongo democratic republic of congo amongst others we also present a few cautionary notes regarding the limitations of the algorithm and interpretation of the data it provides

evidence for shifting environmental conditions in southwestern france from 33 000 to 15 000 years ago derived from carbon 13 and nitrogen 15 natural abundances in collagen of large herbivores a paleoenvironmental reconstruction of terrestrial environments in southwestern france between 33 and 15 cal kyr bp is provided using 13c and 15n variations in collagen of three herbivorous mammals altogether 161 analyses have been carried out on collagen extracted from skeletal fragments of reindeer horse and bos bison from four successive chronological phases covering the end of mois 3 and mois 2 the 13c values of ungulate collagen are clearly separated between the studied species they are interpreted as reflecting a stable dietary adaptation in a changing environment the variations of 15n values of ungulate collagen are significant especially between specimens from mois 3 and specimens from mois 2 with a minimum during the last glacial maximum this phenomenon seems to reflect changes in the activity of nitrogen cycling processes associated with permafrost development carbon and nitrogen isotopic composition of fossil herbivore collagen are worth investigating as paleoecological and paleoenvironmental tracers in upper pleistocene periglacial continental contexts

emplacement of the most recent lava flows on hualālai volcano hawai i a detailed field and petrologic study of the ca 1800 a d flows at hual lai volcano documents at least two eruptive episodes the hu ehu e flow field ending in 1801 and the ka p lehu flow several decades earlier the morphology and stratigraphy of the ka p lehu flow require an emplacement duration of several days to weeks based on a comparison with recent eruptive activity at mauna loa volcano the eruption cannot have occurred at the anomalously high rate 104 105 m3 s proposed by previous workers the hummocky flow surface of the later phase of the hu ehu e eruption suggests a duration of months based on a comparison with recent eruptive activity at k lauea volcano although none of the ca 1800 flows show evidence for extraordinarily fast emplacement or unusual fluid rheologies both flows show unusual features the abundant xenoliths for which the ka p lehu flow is famous were transported in numerous episodes of deposition and remobilization during which they eroded the channel systems through which they traveled lava transport in proximal and medial regions of both flow fields was probably through lava tubes as evidenced by preserved tubes and by the prevalence of p hoehoe lined channels that require thermally efficient transport of lava over great distances both flows also show abundant evidence for re occupation of older cones and lava tubes a characteristic that may typify infrequent eruptions of older volcanic systems although lava flows from hual lai volcano do not show anomalous eruptive behavior they pose a substantial hazard for coastal communities of kona

conclusion recommendations and findings of the red seed working group red seed stands for risk evaluation detection and simulation during effusive eruption disasters and combines stakeholders from the remote sensing modelling and response communities with experience in tracking volcanic effusive events the group first met during a three day long workshop held in clermont ferrand france between 28 and 30 may 2013 during each day presentations were given reviewing the state of the art in terms of a volcano hot spot detection and parameterization b operational satellite based hot spot detection systems c lava flow modelling and d response protocols during effusive crises at the end of each presentation set the four groups retreated to discuss and report on requirements for a truly integrated and operational response that satisfactorily combines remote sensors modellers and responders during an effusive crisis the results of collating the final reports and follow up discussions that have been on going since the workshop are given here we can reduce our discussions to four main findings 1 hot spot detection tools are operational and capable of providing effusive eruption onset notice within 15 min 2 spectral radiance metrics can also be provided with high degrees of confidence however if we are to achieve a truly global system more local receiving stations need to be installed with hot spot detection and data processing modules running on site and in real time 3 models are operational but need real time input of reliable time averaged discharge rate data and regular updates of digital elevation models if they are to be effective the latter can be provided by the radar photogrammetry community 4 information needs to be provided in an agreed and standard format following an ensemble approach and using models that have been validated and recognized as trustworthy by the responding authorities all of this requires a sophisticated and centralized data collection distribution and reporting hub that is based on a philosophy of joint ownership and mutual trust while the next chapter carries out an exercise to explore the viability of the last point the detailed recommendations behind these findings are detailed here

stress control of deep rift intrusion at mauna loa volcano hawaii mauna loa volcano hawaii deforms by a combination of shallow dike intrusions in the rift zones and earthquakes along the base of the volcano but it is not known how the spreading is accommodated in the lower part of the volcanic edifice we present evidence from interferometric synthetic aperture radar data for secular inflation of a dike like magma body at intermediate depth in the southwest rift zone during 2002 to 2005 magma accumulation occurred in a section of the rift zone that was unclamped by previous dikes and earthquakes suggesting that stress transfer plays an important role in controlling subsurface magma accumulation

plateaus and sinuous ridges as the fingerprints of lava flow inflation in the eastern tharsis plains of mars abstract the tharsis montes rift aprons are composed of outpourings of lava from chaotic terrains to the northeast and southwest flank of each volcano sinuous and branching channel networks that are present on the rift aprons suggest the possibility of fluvial processes in their development or erosion by rapidly emplaced lavas but the style of lava flow emplacement throughout rift apron development is not clearly understood to better characterize the style of lava emplacement and role of fluvial processes in rift apron development we conducted morphological mapping of the pavonis mons southwest rift apron and the eastern tharsis plains using images from the high resolution imaging science experiment hirise mars orbiter camera moc context camera ctx thermal emission imaging system themis and high resolution stereo camera hrsc along with the mars orbiter laser altimeter mola precision experiment data records pedrs and gridded data our approach was to 1 search for depositional fans at the slope break between the rift apron and adjacent low slope plains 2 determine if there is evidence that previously formed deposits might have been buried by plains units 3 characterize the tharsis plains morphologies east of pavonis mons and 4 assess their relationship to the rift apron units we have not identified topographically significant depositional fans nor did we observe evidence to suggest that plains units have buried older rift apron units flow features associated with the rift apron are observed to continue across the slope break onto the plains in this area the plains are composed of a variety of small fissures and low shield vents around which broad channel fed and tube fed flows have been identified we also find broad flat topped plateaus and sinuous ridges mixed among the channels tubes and vents flat topped plateaus and sinuous ridges are morphologies that are analogous to those observed on the coastal plain of hawai i where lava flows have advanced from the volcano s several degree flank onto the nearly zero degree coastal plain when local volumetric flow rates are low flow fronts tend to spread laterally and often thicken via endogenous growth or inflation of the sheet like flow units if flow advance is restricted by existing topography into narrow pathways inflation can be focused into sinuous elongate ridges the presence of plateaus and ridges emplaced from the rift zones across the plains to the east of pavonis mons and a lack of fan like features or evidence for their burial are consistent with rift apron lavas crossing a slope break with low local volumetric flow rates that led to inflation of sheet like and tube fed lava flows

the role of the 1999 chamoli earthquake in the formation of ground cracks abstract the moderate magnitude chamoli earthquake that occurred in the garhwal higher himalaya in the early hours of march 29 1999 caused intense damage to the ground and mountain slopes of the alaknanda mandakini river valley and adjoining region a systematic survey of this induced damage was conducted immediately after the earthquake occurred prominent shallow cracks of significant length negligible width and indeterminate vertical extent conspicuously tensile in nature with little or no slip across the crack planes were observed in the ground at several places along the surveyed route these cracks had formed in the dynamic phase of the chamoli earthquake process that is in the period of time during which the earthquake generated seismic waves were passing through the geographic region of interest however we use the theory of earthquake induced static or long time stress changes to visualize such cracks at some selected sites where ground damage was relatively more intense and varied to suggest lower bound estimates of the dynamic stress contributions of the main shock for their formation based on the results of our analysis we conclude that just prior to the earthquake occurrence under the influence of the local ambient stress field the ground at these sites was already near failure in tension to this in its dynamic phase the chamoli earthquake induced stress perturbations having across the planes of the cracks i shear components which were nearly equal and opposite to similar components of the ambient stress field and ii normal tensile components necessary for triggering tensile failure of the ground the 3 or minimum principal stress component of the resultant perturbed failure stress field thus became sufficiently tensile while the transverse stresses became sufficiently insignificant this facilitated formation of major tensile cracks in the ground there our static estimates of the tensile stress changes at the different sites are in essence estimates of the minimal triggering stress perturbations that was provided by the chamoli earthquake in the dynamic state for the formation of the tensile cracks there

risk evaluation detection and simulation during effusive eruption disasters lava ingress into a vulnerable population will be difficult to control so that evacuation will be necessary for communities in the path of the active lava followed by post event population infrastructural societal and community replacement and or relocation there is a pressing need to set up a response chain that bridges scientists and responders during an effusive crisis to allow near real time delivery of globally standard products for a timely and adequate humanitarian response in this chain the scientific research groups investigating lava remote sensing and modelling need to provide products that are both useful to and trusted by the crisis response community requirements for these products include a formats that can be immediately integrated into a crisis management procedure and b in an agreed and stable standard a review of current capability reveals that we are at a point where the community can provide such a response as is the aim of the red seed risk evaluation detection and simulation during effusive eruption disasters working group this book is the first production of this group and is intended not only as a directory of current capabilities and operational service providers but also as a statement of intent and need while providing a simulation designed to demonstrate how a truly pan disciplinary response to an effusive crisis could work

seismotectonics beneath the tokyo metropolitan area japan effect of slab slab contact and overlap on seismicity 1 we first determine the configuration of the upper surface of the pacific pac slab beneath kanto japan from the distribution of interplate earthquakes relocated by an appropriate 1 d velocity model then traveltime tomography is carried out to estimate three dimensional seismic velocity structures around kanto using 735 520 p wave and 444 049 s wave arrival times from 6508 local earthquakes the obtained results suggest that the philippine sea phs slab is subducting to depths of 130 140 km without a gap even to the northwest of the izu collision zone we subsequently define the lateral extent of the contact zone between the bottom of the phs slab and the upper surface of the pac slab phs pac interface and reveal that the slab contact zone underlies a wider area beneath kanto in harmony with the kanto plain the downdip limit of interplate thrust type earthquakes on the pac slab is deepened by 30 km locally under the slab contact zone this deepening is probably caused by a lower temperature environment in the pac slab resulting from the overlap with the phs slab subducting above and consequent thermal shielding by the phs slab from the hot mantle wedge we detect an extremely low velocity anomaly in the easternmost portion of the phs slab which is probably attributable to serpentinization of mantle peridotite interplate earthquakes are almost absent along the phs pac interface overlain by the serpentinized mantle in the phs slab suggesting that ductile deformation takes place along the interface because of low viscosity of the serpentine

aster and field observations of the 24 december 2006 eruption of bezymianny volcano russia abstract an explosive eruption occurred at bezymianny volcano kamchatka peninsula russia on 24 december 2006 at 09 17 utc seismicity increased three weeks prior to the large eruption which produced a 12 15 km above sea level asl ash column we present field observations from 27 december 2006 and 2 march 2007 combined with satellite data collected from 8 october 2006 to 11 april 2007 by the advanced spaceborne thermal emission and reflection radiometer aster as part of the instrument s rapid response program to volcanic eruptions pixel integrated brightness temperatures were calculated from both aster 90 m pixel thermal infrared tir data as well as 30 m pixel short wave infrared swir data four days prior to the eruption the maximum tir temperature was 45 c above the average background temperature 33 c at the dome which we interpret was a precursory signal and had dropped to 8 c above background by 18 march 2007 on 20 december 2006 there was also a clear thermal signal in the swir data of 128 c using aster band 7 2 26 m the maximum swir temperature was 181 c on the lava dome on 4 january 2007 decreasing below the detection limit of the swir data by 11 april 2007 on 4 january 2007 a hot linear feature was observed at the dome in the swir data which produced a maximum temperature of 700 c for the hot fraction of the pixel using the dual band technique this suggests that magmatic temperatures were present at the dome at this time consistent with the emplacement of a new lava lobe following the eruption the eruption also produced a large 6 5 km long by up to 425 m wide pyroclastic flow pf deposit that was channelled into a valley to the south southeast the pf deposit cooled over the following three months but remained elevated above the average background temperature a second field investigation in march 2007 revealed a still warm pf deposit that contained fumaroles it was also observed that the upper dome morphology had changed in the past year with a new lava lobe having in filled the crater that formed following the 9 may 2006 eruption these data provide further information on effusive and explosive activity at bezymianny using quantitative remote sensing data and reinforced by field observations to assist in pre eruption detection as well as post eruption monitoring

interaction between two subducting plates under tokyo and its possible effects on seismic hazards 1 underneath metropolitan tokyo the philippine sea plate phs subducts to the north on top of the westward subducting pacific plate pac new relatively high resolution tomography images the phs as a well defined subduction zone under western kanto plain as pac shoals under eastern kanto the phs lithosphere is being thrusted into an increasingly tighter space of the pac eurasian mantle wedge as a result zones of enhanced seismicity appear under eastern kanto at the top of phs internal to phs and also at its contact with pac these zones are located at depths greater than the causative fault of the disastrous 1923 great tokyo megathrust earthquake in the vicinity of several well located historical damaging m6 and m7 earthquakes thus a rather unique interaction between subducting plates under tokyo may account for additional seismic hazards in metropolitan tokyo

variations in bone collagen δ13c and δ15n values of fauna from northwest europe over the last 40 000 years we report here a signal in the temporal variation of stable isotopes in protein from surviving animal bone in northwest europe over the past glacial cycle there is a change in the average 13c values of fauna in the holocene and there is also a significant reduction in 15n values of herbivore bone collagen towards the end of the last glaciation with a subsequent recovery soon after the start of the holocene this change is observed for several species and is restricted to those regions most affected by the glacial advance comparison with ice core data shows that there is a strong correlation between the average 13c values of three herbivore species and ice core co2 concentration the data presented here show how readily available faunal bone collagen 13c and 15n measurements provide a record of past climate and environmental change on a regional to continental scale

paleoecological and climatic implications of stable isotope results from late pleistocene bone collagen ziegeleigrube coenen germany abstract climatic and ecological conditions during marine oxygen isotope stage mis 3 are complex and the impact of cold spells on the ecosystems in central europe still needs to be investigated thoroughly ziegeleigrube coenen zc is a late pleistocene mis 3 locality in the lower rhine embayment of germany radiocarbon dated to 34 14 c ka bp the site yielded a broad spectrum of mammal species we investigated the carbon 13 c nitrogen 15 n and sulfur 34 s isotope signatures of bone collagen since these are valuable tools in characterizing ecological niches environmental conditions and aspects of climate and mobility by comparison with pre and post last glacial maximum lgm sites in central europe we show that zc belongs in a cold event of mis 3 and was climatically more similar to post lgm sites than to pre lgm sites however the trophic structure resembled that of typical pre lgm sites in belgium this cold event in mis 3 changed the bottom of the foodweb but do not seem to have had a direct impact on the occurrence of the mammalian species and their ecological distribution apparently the mega faunal community could adapt also to harsher environmental conditions during mis 3

a global synthesis of lava lake dynamics abstract active lava lakes represent a variety of open vent volcanism in which a sizable body of lava accumulates at the top of the magma column constrained by the vent and or crater geometry the longevity of lava lakes reflects a balancing of cooling and outgassing occurring at the surface and input of hot and gas rich magma from below due to their longevity and relative accessibility lava lakes provide a natural laboratory for studying fundamental volcanic processes such as degassing convection and cooling this article examines all seven lakes that existed at the time of writing in 2018 located in the pacific antarctica africa and south and central america these lakes span all tectonic environments and a range of magma compositions we focus on analysis of the lake surface motion using image velocimetry which reveals both similarities and contrasts in outgassing and lake dynamics when comparing the different lakes we identify two categories of lake behavior organized erta ale nyiragongo k lauea after 2011 and erebus and chaotic villarrica masaya marum this division does not map directly to lake size viscosity gas emission rate or temperature instead when examined together we find that the lakes follow a linear relationship between average surface speed and the ratio of total gas flux to lake surface area this relationship points to the combined importance of both flux and lake size in addition to the total volume of gas emission and suggests that a shared deep mechanism controls the supply of heat and gas to all lakes on the other hand the differences between chaotic and organized lakes highlight the important role of the geometry of the conduit lake transition which superimposes a shallow signal on that of the deep circulation the spatial patterns of surface motion we document suggest that the release of gas bubbles at chaotic lakes is more efficient i e bubbles are less likely to be retained and recycled compared with organized lakes in addition the data presented here indicate that the solidified crust of organized lakes plays a role in regulating convection and outgassing in lava lakes

cause of m 7 intraslab earthquakes beneath the tokyo metropolitan area japan possible evidence for a vertical tear at the easternmost portion of the philippine sea slab 1 we perform travel time tomography beneath kanto japan to obtain detailed structures of the wedge shaped serpentinized mantle previously observed in the philippine sea slab the results suggest that the western boundary of the serpentinized mantle serpentine boundary is subvertical and p and s wave velocities vary by 15 20 across it over the short distance of 10 km two intraslab earthquakes in 1921 m7 0 and 1987 east off chiba earthquake m6 7 are inferred to have occurred along the serpentine boundary accompanied by right lateral movement based on analyses of focal mechanisms and aftershock distribution a subvertical earthquake cluster penetrating the entire philippine sea slab is observed along the serpentine boundary and four earthquakes in the cluster have strike slip focal mechanisms similar to that of the 1987 earthquake focal mechanisms obtained for past large earthquakes and present day microearthquakes suggest a concentration of right lateral deformation along the mechanically weak serpentine boundary the philippine sea slab may have been torn in two along this boundary with the eastern portion being left behind relative to subduction of the western portion assuming that one of the large aftershocks m7 1 of the 1923 kanto earthquake m7 9 which occurred off the boso peninsula ruptured the same asperity as did the 1987 earthquake the slip deficit accumulated along the serpentine boundary during the 64 year interval is consistent with the fault slip of the 1987 earthquake interaction between the seismic slip along the plate interface and the serpentine boundary can explain the series of m7 class earthquakes before and after the 1923 kanto earthquake

forecasting lava flow paths by a stochastic approach 1 a stochastic model named downflow is presented to forecast possible lava flow paths with the aim of hazard assessment and mitigation the model relies on the fact that lava flow emplacement is in many cases controlled by topography the potential inundation area of the flow is determined by considering a number of steepest paths over stochastic perturbations of the original topography since the code requires very short computational time and few input data the model proved to be a very useful tool to obtain real time predictions during the initial phase of an eruption the necessary topographic information can be obtained by photogrammetry radar altimetry or laser scanning techniques downflow has been successfully applied to a number of flows including the september 2004 lava flow where updated topographies were available

space based estimate of the volcanic heat flux into the atmosphere during 2001 and 2002 satellite remote sensing offers a convenient way to monitor changes in the thermal budgets of earth s subaerially active volcanoes by using data acquired by the national aeronautics and space administration s moderate resolution imaging spectro radiometer we have calculated the amount of heat released into the atmosphere by 45 volcanoes active during 2001 and 2002 in order to quantify the contribution active volcanism makes to earth s energy budget we report that the amount of heat radiated into the troposphere by these volcanoes as detected from space was 5 34 3 10 16 and 5 30 3 10 16 j yr during 2001 and 2002 respectively this energy flux is three orders of magnitude less than the amount of energy consumed by the united states of america for residential manufacturing and transportation purposes during 1999

preparation and characterization of bone and tooth collagen for isotopic analysis abstract criteria are presented for the identification of diagenetic alteration of carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios of bone and tooth collagen prepared by a widely used method measurements of collagen concentrations in tooth and bone atomic c n ratios and carbon and nitrogen concentrations in collagen of 359 historic and prehistoric african humans and modern and prehistoric east african non human mammals are described carbon isotope ratios of collagen lipids from four bones are also presented compared to bone whole teeth have significantly lower collagen concentrations lower carbon and nitrogen concentrations in collagen and similar c n ratios carbon and nitrogen concentrations and c n ratios are relatively constant over a wide range of collagen concentrations however prehistoric specimens with very low collagen concentrations have highly variable c n ratios very low carbon and nitrogen concentrations in collagen and stable carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios unlike collagen at the transition from well preserved to poorly preserved collagen the most reliable indicator of collagen preservation is the concentration of carbon and nitrogen in collagen concentrations of c and n drop abruptly by an order of magnitude at this transition point these attributes provide simple criteria for assessing sample quality since collagen preservation can vary greatly within prehistoric sites these attributes should be reported for each specimen use of purification procedures that remove acid and base soluble contaminants and particulate matter carbonates fulvic acids lipids humic acids sediments and rootlets are recommended wider adoption of these procedures would insure comparability of results between laboratories and permit independent and objective evaluation of sample preservation and more precise dietary climatic and habitat interpretations of collagen isotopic analyses

the greenland ice core chronology 2005 15 42 ka part 2 comparison to other records a new greenland ice core chronology gicc05 based on multi parameter counting of annual layers has been obtained for the last 42 ka here we compare the glacial part of the new time scale which is based entirely on records from the northgrip ice core to existing time scales and reference horizons covering the same period these include the grip and northgrip modelled time scales the meese sowers gisp2 counted time scale the shackleton fairbanks grip time scale sfcp04 based on 14c calibration of a marine core the hulu cave record three volcanic reference horizons and the laschamp geomagnetic excursion event occurring around greenland interstadial 10 gicc05 is generally in good long term agreement with the existing greenland ice core chronologies and with the hulu cave record but on shorter time scales there are significant discrepancies around the last glacial maximum there is a more than 1 ka age difference between gicc05 and sfcp04 and a more than 0 5 ka discrepancy in the same direction between gicc05 and the age of a recently identified tephra layer in the northgrip ice core both sfcp04 and the tephra age are based on 14c dated marine cores and fixed marine reservoir ages for the laschamp event gicc05 agrees with a recent independent dating within the uncertainties

complex effusive events at kīlauea as documented by the goes satellite and remote video cameras goes provides thermal data for all of the hawaiian volcanoes once every 15 min we show how volcanic radiance time series produced from this data stream can be used as a simple measure of effusive activity two types of radiance trends in these time series can be used to monitor effusive activity a gradual variations in radiance reveal steady flow field extension and tube development b discrete spikes correlate with short bursts of activity such as lava fountaining or lava lake overflows we are confident that any effusive event covering more than 10 000 m2 of ground in less than 60 min will be unambiguously detectable using this approach we demonstrate this capability using goes video camera and ground based observational data for the current eruption of k lauea volcano hawai i a goes radiance time series was constructed from 3987 images between 19 june and 12 august 1997 this time series displayed 24 radiance spikes elevated more than two standard deviations above the mean 19 of these are correlated with video recorded short burst effusive events less ambiguous events are interpreted assessed and related to specific volcanic events by simultaneous use of permanently recording video camera data and ground observer reports the goes radiance time series are automatically processed on data reception and made available in near real time so such time series can contribute to three main monitoring functions a automatically alerting major effusive events b event confirmation and assessment and c establishing effusive event chronology

quantifying lava flow hazards in response to effusive eruption the integration of satellite data and modeling represents a step toward the next generation of quantitative hazard assessment in response to effusive volcano eruption onset satellite based thermal remote sensing of hotspots related to effusive activity can effectively provide a variety of products suited to timing locating and tracking the radiant character of lava flows hotspots show the location and occurrence of eruptive events vents discharge rate estimates may indicate the current intensity effusion rate and potential magnitude volume high spatial resolution multispectral satellite data can complement field observations for monitoring the front position length and extension of flows area physics based models driven or validated by satellite derived parameters are now capable of fast and accurate forecast of lava flow inundation scenarios hazard here we demonstrate the potential of the integrated application of satellite remote sensing techniques and lava flow models by using a retrospective analysis of the 2004 2005 effusive eruption at mount etna in italy the lava flow hazard was assessed by using the hotsat volcano hotspot detection system which works with satellite thermal infrared data and the magflow lava flow emplacement model which is able to relate the flow evolution to eruption conditions at the vent we used hotsat to analyze moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer modis and spinning enhanced visible and infrared imager seviri data to output hotspot location lava thermal flux and effusion rate estimation this output was used to drive the magflow simulations of lava flow paths and to continuously update flow simulations we also show how landsat 7 enhanced thematic mapper etm and earth observing 1 eo 1 advanced land imager ali images complement the field observations to track the flow front position in time and add valuable data on lava flow advancement with which to validate the numerical simulations such integration at last makes timely forecasts of lava flow hazards during effusive crises possible at the great majority of volcanoes for which no monitoring exists

observing iceland s eyjafjallajokull 2010 eruptions with the autonomous nasa volcano sensor web 1 between 24 march and 5 june 2010 the hyperion hyperspectral imager and advanced land imager ali on nasa s earth observing 1 eo 1 spacecraft obtained an unprecedented sequence of 50 observation pairs of the eruptions at fimmvor uhals and eyjafjallajokull iceland this high acquisition rate was possible only through the use of data flow streamlined by using the autonomously operating nasa volcano sensor web vsw the vsw incorporates notifications of volcanic activity from multiple sources to retask eo 1 and process hyperion data to extract eruption parameters from high spatial and spectral resolution visible and short wavelength infrared data physical changes in eruption style and magnitude were charted as the eruptions ran their course rapid data downlink and automatic data processing algorithms generated a variety of products which are compared with estimates from ground based observations and post eruption in situ measurements estimates of effusion rate from heat loss measurements underestimate actual effusion rate while still following broad eruption rate trends but are closer to in situ estimates for effusive eruptions fimmvor uhals than explosive ash rich eruptions eyjafjallajokull during the later stages of the 2010 eruption vsw generated products were rapidly delivered to end users in iceland to aid in the assessment of risk and hazard the success of the vsw led to icelandic meteorological office imo in situ sensors being incorporated into the vsw and in may 2011 an imo seismic alert autonomously triggered eo 1 observations of a new eruption at grimsvotn volcano finally the vsw demonstrates an autonomy driven multi asset spacecraft retasking and data processing system that maximizes science return a desirable capability for future nasa missions

thermal mapping of a pāhoehoe lava flow kīlauea volcano abstract p hoehoe lava flows are a major component of hawaiian eruptive activity and an important part of basaltic volcanism worldwide in recent years p hoehoe lava has destroyed homes and threatened parts of hawai i with inundation and disruption in this study we use oblique helicopter borne thermal images to create high spatial resolution 1 m georeferenced thermal maps of the active p hoehoe flow on k lauea volcano s east rift zone thermal maps were created on 27 days during 2014 2016 in the course of operational monitoring encompassing a phase of activity that threatened the town of p hoa our results illustrate and reinforce how p hoehoe flows are multicomponent systems consisting of the vent master tube distributary tubes and surface breakouts the thermal maps accurately depict the distribution and character of p hoehoe breakouts through time and also delineate the subsurface lava tube surface breakouts were distributed widely across the p hoehoe flow with significant portions concurrently active well upslope of the flow front often concentrated in clusters of activity that evolved through time gradual changes to surface breakout distribution and migration relate to intrinsic processes in the flow including the slow evolution of the distributary tube system abrupt disruptions to this system and the creation of new breakouts and associated hazards were triggered by extrinsic forcing namely fluctuations in lava supply rate at the vent which disrupted the master lava tube although the total area of a p hoehoe flow has been suggested to relate to effusion rate our results show that changes in the proportion of expansion vs overplating can complicate this relationship by modifying existing techniques we estimate time averaged discharge rates for the flow during 2014 2016 generally in the range of 1 2 m 3 s 1 mean 1 3 0 4 m 3 s 1 less than half of k lauea s typical eruption rate on the east rift zone and suggestive of a weak eruptive regime during 2014 2016 we caution however that this discharge rate approach requires further independent corroboration the thermal maps provide the first synoptic characterization of p hoehoe flow activity at high spatial resolution essential both for operational hazard assessment and fundamental understanding of p hoehoe behavior

aster watches the world s volcanoes a new paradigm for volcanological observations from orbit onboard nasa terra spacecraft is one of the most sophisticated earth observing instruments ever flown the advanced spaceborne thermal emission and reflection radiometer aster created as part of a joint project between the japanese ministry of economy trade and industry and nasa this instrument consists of three independent bore sighted telescopes with 14 channels in the visible near infrared and thermal infrared regions capable of being pointed up to 22 5 off nadir in addition there is an additional backward looking visible channel telescope for stereo photogrammetric observations the spatial resolutions are 15 m pixel in the visible 30 m pixel in the near ir and 90 m pixel at thermal wavelengths and the swath width is 60 km aster instrument offers unprecedented opportunities for observing volcanoes and their activity from low earth orbit it is the purpose of this short paper to introduce aster to the volcanological community highlight its capabilities advantages and limitations and to show some examples of aster data and related analyses we will also explain how users can readily access aster data

time series analysis of infrared satellite data for detecting thermal anomalies a hybrid approach we developed and tested an automated algorithm that analyzes thermal infrared satellite time series data to detect and quantify the excess energy radiated from thermal anomalies such as active volcanoes our algorithm enhances the previously developed modvolc approach a simple point operation by adding a more complex time series component based on the methods of the robust satellite techniques rst algorithm using test sites at anatahan and k lauea volcanoes the hybrid time series approach detected 15 more thermal anomalies than modvolc with very few if any known false detections we also tested gas flares in the cantarell oil field in the gulf of mexico as an end member scenario representing very persistent thermal anomalies at cantarell the hybrid algorithm showed only a slight improvement but it did identify flares that were undetected by modvolc we estimate that at least 80 modis images for each calendar month are required to create good reference images necessary for the time series analysis of the hybrid algorithm the improved performance of the new algorithm over modvolc will result in the detection of low temperature thermal anomalies that will be useful in improving our ability to document earth s volcanic eruptions as well as detecting low temperature thermal precursors to larger eruptions

constraints on the partitioning of kīlauea s lavas between surface and tube flows estimated from infrared satellite data sulfur dioxide emission rates and field observations this paper describes how observations of sulfur dioxide so2 degassing rates obtained in situ thermal emission rates obtained from infrared satellite data and semiquantitative flow field observations can be used to elucidate the partitioning of lava between the surface and tube systems at k lauea volcano hawai i over a decadal timescale for most of our study period 2000 to 2009 we found that the infrared spectral radiance measured by moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer from the flow field under clear sky conditions is controlled by the lava effusion rate and the amount of flow accommodated by the subsurface tube system at k lauea the degree of tubing is estimated qualitatively using field observations and we show that the satellite data and in situ gas data can be used to estimate the percentage of lava on the surface relative to the total amount erupted this empirical relationship works to describe many cases in the past decade at k lauea but breaks down when there is a lack of concurrent clear sky radiance and so2 data or when magma is being stored and degassed prior to eruption our observations provide a simple way to estimate the partitioning of k lauea s total lava supply between surface and tube fed flows using a long term dataset this is important because the transition between periods when lava is distributed primarily by surface flows to periods where tubes dominate has been suggested to indicate significant changes in the character of decadal scale eruptions at k lauea heliker et al bull volcanol 59 381 393 1998 in addition it is during those times when surface flows predominate that the flow field does most of its lateral expansion and the hazards associated with the lava effusion become more pronounced

lava effusion rate definition and measurement a review measurement of effusion rate is a primary objective for studies that model lava flow and magma system dynamics as well as for monitoring efforts during on going eruptions however its exact definition remains a source of confusion and problems occur when comparing volume flux values that are averaged over different time periods or spatial scales or measured using different approaches thus our aims are to 1 define effusion rate terminology and 2 assess the various measurement methods and their results we first distinguish between instantaneous effusion rate and time averaged discharge rate eruption rate is next defined as the total volume of lava emplaced since the beginning of the eruption divided by the time since the eruption began the ultimate extension of this is mean output rate this being the final volume of erupted lava divided by total eruption duration whether these values are total values i e the flux feeding all flow units across the entire flow field or local i e the flux feeding a single active unit within a flow field across which many units are active also needs to be specified no approach is without its problems and all can have large error up to 50 however good agreement between diverse approaches shows that reliable estimates can be made if each approach is applied carefully and takes into account the caveats we detail here there are three important factors to consider and state when measuring giving or using an effusion rate first the time period over which the value was averaged second whether the measurement applies to the entire active flow field or a single lava flow within that field and third the measurement technique and its accompanying assumptions

chronology of the episode 54 eruption at kilauea volcano hawaii from goes 9 satellite data the free availability of goes satellite data every 15 minutes makes these data an attractive tool for studying short term changes on cloud free volcanoes in the pacific basin we use cloud free goes 9 data to investigate the chronology of the january 1997 episode 54 eruption of kilauea volcano hawaii seventy six images for this effusive eruption were collected over a 60 hour period and show the opening and shutdown of active fissures the draining and refilling of the pu u o o lava lake and the cessation of activity at the ocean entry

cyclic spattering seismic tremor and surface fluctuation within a perched lava channel kīlauea volcano in late 2007 a perched lava channel built up to 45 m above the preexisting surface developed during the ongoing eruption near pu u cone on k lauea volcano s east rift zone the lava channel was segmented into four pools extending over a total of 1 4 km from late october to mid december a cyclic behavior consisting of steady lava level rise terminated by vigorous spattering and an abrupt drop in lava level was commonly observed in pool 1 we use geologic observations video time lapse camera images and seismicity to characterize and understand this cyclic behavior spattering episodes occurred at intervals of 40 100 min during peak activity and involved small 5 10 m high fountains limited to the margins of the pool most spattering episodes had fountains which migrated downchannel each spattering episode was associated with a rapid lava level drop of about 1 m which was concurrent with a conspicuous cigar shaped tremor burst with peak frequencies of 4 5 hz we interpret this cyclic behavior to be gas pistoning and this is the first documented instance of gas pistoning in lava well away from the deeper conduit our observations and data indicate that the gas pistoning was driven by gas accumulation beneath the visco elastic component of the surface crust contrary to other studies which attribute similar behavior to the periodic rise of gas slugs the gas piston events typically had a gas mass of about 2 500 kg similar to the explosions at stromboli with gas accumulation and release rates of about 1 1 and 5 7 kg s 1 respectively the time averaged gas output rate of the gas pistoning events accounted for about 1 2 of the total gas output rate of the east rift zone eruption

trophic structure and climatic information from isotopic signatures in pleistocene cave fauna of southern england the preservation of trophic structure and climatic information in kent s cavern upper pleistocene mammal bones and teeth was assessed by comparing the isotopic composition of modern and fossil equivalents yields of collagen from both bone n 19 and tooth n 49 were extremely variable with values relative to modern bone ranging from 0 to 100 no evidence of preferential preservation of tooth collagen was detected the carbon and nitrogen isotopic differences in the herbivore versus carnivore collagen from kent s cavern fauna were consistent with those observed in modern faunas moreover an enrichment of 0 4 1 7 in15n was observed in tooth collagen of both deer and hyena as compared to bone collagen this enrichment presumably reflects a trophic shift from the consumption of milk during infancy herbivores and carnivores had distinct differences in the carbon isotopic composition of enamel carbonate hydroxylapatite similar to those measured in modern specimens from similar climatic environments the spacing between the 13c values difference between isotopic composition in collagen and carbonate hydroxylapatite of kent s cavern herbivores and carnivores is similar to that measured in modern mammals from a single locality the preservation of primary oxygen isotopic composition of enamel carbonate hydroxylapatite was more difficult to assess however oxygen isotopic compositions of kent s cavern enamel are systematically lower than those of contemporaneous faunas from southern france which is consistent with a latitudinal effect on rainfall oxygen isotopic compositions although the kent s cavern specimens have been subjected to extensive diagenetic alteration the biological isotopic signals seem to have utility for paleoecological reconstructions

a sinuous tumulus over an active lava tube at klauea volcano evolution analogs and hazard forecasts abstract inflation of narrow tube fed basaltic lava flows tens of meters across such as those confined by topography can be focused predominantly along the roof of a lava tube this can lead to the development of an unusually long tumulus its shape matching the sinuosity of the underlying lava tube such a situation occurred during k lauea volcano s hawai i usa ongoing east rift zone eruption on a lava tube active from july through november 2010 short lived breakouts from the tube buried the flanks of the sinuous ridge like tumulus while the tumulus crest its surface composed of lava formed very early in the flow s emplacement history remained poised above the surrounding younger flows at least several of these breakouts resulted in irrecoverable uplift of the tube roof confined sections of the prehistoric carrizozo and mccartys flows new mexico usa display similar sinuous ridge like features with comparable surface age relationships we contend that these distinct features formed in a fashion equivalent to that of the sinuous tumulus that formed at k lauea in 2010 moreover these sinuous tumuli may be analogs for some sinuous ridges evident in orbital images of the tharsis volcanic province on mars the short lived breakouts from the sinuous tumulus at k lauea were caused by surges in discharge through the lava tube in response to cycles of deflation and inflation di events at k lauea s summit the correlation between di events and subsequent breakouts aided in lava flow forecasting breakouts from the sinuous tumulus advanced repeatedly toward the sparsely populated kalapana gardens subdivision destroying two homes and threatening others hazard assessments including flow occurrence and advance forecasts were relayed regularly to the hawai i county civil defense to aid their lava flow hazard mitigation efforts while this lava tube was active

the nasa volcano sensor web advanced autonomy and the remote sensing of volcanic eruptions a review abstract the volcano sensor web vsw is a globe spanning net of sensors and applications for detecting volcanic activity alerts from the vsw are used to trigger observations from space using the earth observing 1 eo 1 spacecraft onboard eo 1 is the autonomous sciencecraft experiment ase advanced autonomy software using ase has streamlined spacecraft operations and has enabled the rapid delivery of high level products to end users the entire process from initial alert to product delivery is autonomous this facility is of great value as a rapid response is vital during a volcanic crisis ase consists of three parts 1 science data classifiers which process eo 1 hyperion data to identify anomalous thermal signals 2 a spacecraft command language and 3 the continuous activity scheduling planning execution and replanning casper software that plans and replans activities including downlinks based on available resources and operational constraints for each eruption detected thermal emission maps and estimates of eruption parameters are posted to a website at the jet propulsion laboratory california institute of technology in pasadena ca selected products are emailed to end users the vsw uses software agents to detect volcanic activity alerts generated from a wide variety of sources on the ground and in space and can also be easily triggered manually

automated volcanic eruption detection using modis abstract the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer modis flown on board nasa s first earth observing system eos platform terra offers complete global data coverage every 1 2 days at spatial resolutions of 250 500 and 1000 m its ability to detect emitted radiation in the short 4 m and long 12 m wave infrared regions of the electromagnetic spectrum combined with the excellent geolocation of the image pixels 200 m makes it an ideal source of data for automatically detecting and monitoring high temperature volcanic thermal anomalies this paper describes the underlying principles of and results obtained from just such a system our algorithm interrogates the modis level 1b data stream for evidence of high temperature volcanic features once a hotspot has been identified its details location emitted spectral radiance satellite observational parameters are written to an ascii text file and transferred via file transfer protocol ftp to the hawaii institute of geophysics and planetology higp where the results are posted on the internet http modis higp hawaii edu the global distribution of volcanic hotspots can be examined visually at a variety of scales using this website which also allows easy access to the quantitative data contained in the ascii files themselves we outline how the algorithm has proven robust as a hotspot detection tool for a wide range of eruptive styles at both permanently and sporadically active volcanoes including soufriere hills montserrat popocatepetl mexico bezymianny russia and merapi java amongst others we also present case studies of how the system has allowed the onset development and cessation of discrete eruptive events to be monitored at nyamuragira congo piton de la fournaise reunion island and shiveluch russia

earthquake of 1987 off chiba central japan and possible triggering of eastern tokyo earthquake of 1988 abstract a moderate earthquake m 6 7 occurred off eastern chiba central japan on december 17 1987 as a consequence of the internal deformation of the philippine sea plate this event helped in clarifying the geometry of the easternmost part of the philippine sea plate as well as the mode of earthquake occurrence in this region three months later another moderate earthquake m 6 0 took plate beneath eastern tokyo this event was generated at the slab slab collision zone at about 90 km depth and is considered to be triggered by the former earthquake a similar phenomenon was observed for the izu m 6 7 of june 29 1980 and the mid chiba m 6 1 of september 25 1980 earthquake pair and the off ibaraki m 7 0 of july 23 1982 and the southern ibaraki m 6 0 of february 27 1983 earthquake pair these are the only three earthquake pairs of m 6 which occurred in the tokyo metropolitan area since 1974 thus over these 15 years all m 6 interplate earthquakes in this specific region are preceded by nearby m 7 earthquakes this suggests that m 7 shallow events enhance stress in the deeper plate collision zone beneath the tokyo metropolitan area and trigger m 6 interplate events

a chronology of the 1991 to 1993 mount etna eruption using advanced very high resolution radiometer data implications for real time thermal volcano monitoring between december 1991 and march 1993 a continuous effusive eruption at mount etna built a 7 6 km2 lava flow field flows extended to within 1 km of the town of zafferana before a successful artificial diversion was carried out higher up the volcano during this eruption the spaceborne advanced very high resolution radiometer avhrr acquired 308 images on which the activity could be detected since these data can be freely and directly available such coverage potentially allows regular real time monitoring ground observations and a flow map that we produced using a spot image and electronic distance measurement allowed us to develop and test data extraction techniques avhrr radiance maps were consistent with known locations of surface activity these documented the transition from channel to tube fed phases the changing threat to zafferana and flow diversion quantitative analysis of the avhrr data enabled estimation of active lava area thermal flux effusion rates and total flow field volume our estimates for eruption rate and total flow field volume 5 6 to 7 6 m3 s and 220 106 to 300 106 m3 respectively are in agreement with published ground based estimates of 5 8 m3 s and 235 106 m3 these correlations demonstrate the high degree of confidence that can now be placed in interpretations of avhrr time series for eruptions where ground based data are scanty

regional earthquake as a trigger for enhanced volcanic activity evidence from modis thermal data 1 the magnitude 6 4 earthquake that occurred in java on 26 may 2006 provided us with data capable of revealing an immediate eruptive response at two javanese volcanoes merapi and semeru the availability of pre processed thermal data for volcanic hot spots detected by the moderate resolution imaging spectrometer modis and provided on http hotspot higp hawaii edu allowed us to produce heat and volume flux time series for these two erupting volcanoes covering a 35 day period spanning the earthquake our results revealed a coupled response by the volcanoes to the earthquake both experiencing increases in heat and volume flux beginning 3 days after the earthquake with the response lasting 9 days the response was felt at both volcanoes as a factor of two to three increase in the rate of volumetric output after which output returned to the pre response rates this implies that the earthquake triggered enhanced output at two erupting volcanoes 50 and 300 km distant from the earthquake epicenter and separated from each other by 260 km

carbon and nitrogen stable isotope analysis of northwest european horse bone and tooth collagen 40 000 bp present palaeoclimatic interpretations abstract carbon and nitrogen stable isotope ratios of bone and tooth dentine collagen from 142 horses were analysed to consider the potential of isotopic analysis of faunal remains as a palaeoenvironmental and palaeoclimatic proxy a general trend through time towards lighter 13 c values was observed but with an obvious depletion at the late glacial holocene transition horse 13 c values appear to track plant 13 c although phenomenon such as the canopy effect may influence faunal 13 c values we believe that the influence on plants of increasing atmospheric co 2 is the primary factor in the change in faunal 13 c values at the late glacial holocene transition a post glacial depletion in horse 15 n values is observed in areas proximal to glacial retreat although no data is available in these areas during the last glacial maximum horse 15 n values are presumed to reflect plant 15 n values depleted plant nitrogen may be attributed to a number of factors e g water availability temperature cycling of nitrogen in the soil soil nutrient availability especially phosphorus in the post glacial period and the type of mycorrhizal associations formed with plant these effects may be interrelated and be linked such that a positive feedback can give a non linear response to a single parameter

bone as a stable isotope archive for local climatic information this brief review outlines the contribution that the study of stable isotope composition in bone can make to palaeoclimatic investigation with the focus almost entirely restricted to the last 50 000 years in nw europe bone can provide a useful archive of the prevailing isotopic condition and represents a quite different and often less specialised sampling of the environment than most other archives on the other hand chronological sequences and dating generally can be a problem and the link between the isotopic value registered in the bone and the environmental conditions which gave rise to it is both complex and not fully understood carbon oxygen and nitrogen isotopes are all available from bone nitrogen only where sufficient protein collagen survives and are all subject in different ways to climatic influences such as temperature rainfall changes in floristic composition and soil chemistry these are all briefly discussed and the datasets that are being published are considered in the context of the environmental information they provide undoubtedly environmental signals are recoverable but their interpretation is still primitive a dataset for carbon and nitrogen isotope composition of herbivores that spans the last 50 000 years is shown together with some of the issues it raises

nitrogen isotope analyses of reindeer rangifer tarandus 45 000 bp to 9 000 bp palaeoenvironmental reconstructions abstract pleistocene faunal 15 n variations are thought to reflect changes in climatic and environmental conditions researchers are still unclear however which climatic environmental parameter is the primary control on pleistocene faunal 15 n values through extensive nitrogen isotope analysis of late pleistocene reindeer rangifer tarandus collagen we investigated whether permafrost development during the late pleistocene coincided with changes in 15 n values after 45 ka bp reindeer 15 n declined with lowest 15 n values observed after the last glacial maximum lgm between 15 and 11 ka bp the decline in 15 n appears to be of a greater magnitude in more northern regions than in the south of france a pattern similar to that previously observed for horse on a global scale ecosystem 15 n is controlled by the relative openness of the nitrogen cycle which in turn is controlled by climate low soil and plant 15 n are observed in cold and or wet regions and high 15 n are seen in hot and or arid areas the regional pattern in reindeer 15 n decline mimics the pattern of climatic deterioration in europe culminating at the lgm with climate cooling being more intense in northern europe than in southern europe however the lowest reindeer 15 n values are observed after temperatures started to rise this may have been due to a lag in the response of the nitrogen cycle to increasing temperatures alternatively it may have been linked to the influence of permafrost degradation on soil and plant 15 n and thus faunal 15 n the renewed climatic cooling during the younger dryas did not see a fall in reindeer 15 n limited data does however suggest a post younger dryas depletion in reindeer 15 n values

palaeoenvironmental and chronological investigations of the magdalenian sites of goyet cave and trou de chaleux belgium via stable isotope and radiocarbon analyses of horse skeletal remains abstract trou de chaleux and goyet are caves situated less than 30 km apart in belgium that contain stratified magdalenian artefacts and butchered faunal remains published radiocarbon dates suggest that both sites were contemporaneously occupied during to the late glacial interstadial it has previously been suggested that the trou de chaleux late glacial faunal remains might be slightly older than those at goyet cave and that trou de chaleux has two phases of occupation during the late glacial interstadial however the limited number of radiocarbon dates currently available makes it impossible to determine whether the sites are truly contemporaneous and the assessment of their absolute chronologies is complicated by a plateau in the calibration curve in this paper bone collagen 13 c and 15 n signatures of horse bones from the two sites are used to reconstruct local palaeoenvironments we hypothesise that if occupations at the two sites were contemporaneous the horse collagen 13 c and 15 n isotope signatures from both sites will be similar since comparable carbon and nitrogen isotopic values would reflect similar diets ecologies and environments to provide clear dating parameters new ams radiocarbon determinations are also presented results show that horse collagen 13 c and 15 n isotope signatures at the two sites are different indicating that the populations were not subject to similar diets ecologies and environments the new radiocarbon dates confirm that the horse bones from trou de chaleux date to the late glacial interstadial but they also show that in goyet cave horizons 1 and 2 older horse remains dating to ca 32 000 27 000 14 c yr bp are mixed with late glacial horse remains the 15 n values of the goyet cave horse bones radiocarbon dated to the pleniglacial are substantially higher than those that have late glacial radiocarbon dates therefore we now hypothesise that the majority of the horse bones isotopically analysed from goyet cave horizon 1 are pleniglacial in age statistical analysis of the radiocarbon dates indicates that the late glacial occupation at the two sites was contemporaneous and that while there may appear to be two phases of occupation at trou de chaleux this may be an artefact of the radiocarbon calibration curve

an emergent strategy for volcano hazard assessment from thermal satellite monitoring to lava flow modeling abstract spaceborne remote sensing techniques and numerical simulations have been combined in a web gis framework lav hazard to evaluate lava flow hazard in real time by using the hotsat satellite thermal monitoring system to estimate time varying tadr time averaged discharge rate and the magflow physics based model to simulate lava flow paths the lav hazard platform allows timely definition of parameters and maps essential for hazard assessment including the propagation time of lava flows and the maximum run out distance we used lav hazard during the 2008 2009 lava flow forming eruption at mt etna sicily italy we measured the temporal variation in thermal emission up to four times per hour during the entire duration of the eruption using seviri and modis data the time series of radiative power allowed us to identify six diverse thermal phases each related to different dynamic volcanic processes and associated with different tadrs and lava flow emplacement conditions satellite derived estimates of lava discharge rates were computed and integrated for the whole period of the eruption almost 14 months showing that a lava volume of between 32 and 61 million cubic meters was erupted of which about 2 3 was emplaced during the first 4 months these time varying discharge rates were then used to drive magflow simulations to chart the spread of lava as a function of time tadrs were sufficiently low 3 s that no lava flows were capable of flowing any great distance so that they did not pose a hazard to vulnerable agricultural and urban areas on the flanks of etna

analysis of volcanic activity patterns using modis thermal alerts we investigate eruptive activity by analysis of thermal alert data from the modis moderate resolution imaging spectrometer thermal infrared satellite instrument detected by the modvolc modis volcano alert algorithm these data are openly available on the internet and easy to use we show how such data can plug major gaps in the conventional monitoring record of volcanoes in an otherwise generally poorly documented region melanesia including characterising the mechanism of lava effusion at pago demonstrating an earlier than realised onset of lava effusion at lopevi extending the known period of lava lake activity at ambrym and confirming ongoing activity at bagana langila and tinakula we also add to the record of activity even at some generally better monitored volcanoes in indonesia but point out that care must be taken to recognise and exclude fires