observing earthquakes triggered in the near field by dynamic deformations we examine the hypothesis that dynamic deformations associated with seismic waves trigger earthquakes in many tectonic environments our analysis focuses on seismicity at close range within the aftershock zone complementing published studies of long range triggering our results suggest that dynamic triggering is not confined to remote distances or to geothermal and volcanic regions long unilaterally propagating ruptures may focus radiated dynamic deformations in the propagation direction therefore we expect seismicity triggered dynamically by a directive rupture to occur asymmetrically with a majority of triggered earthquakes in the direction of rupture propagation bilaterally propagating ruptures also may be directive and we propose simple criteria for assessing their directivity we compare the inferred rupture direction and observed seismicity rate change following 15 earthquakes m 5 7 to m 8 1 that occurred in california and idaho in the united states the gulf of aqaba syria guatemala china new guinea turkey japan mexico and antarctica nine of these mainshocks had clearly directive unilateral ruptures of these nine seven apparently induced an asymmetric increase in seismicity rate that correlates with the rupture direction the two exceptions include an earthquake preceded by a comparable magnitude event on a conjugate fault and another for which data limitations prohibited conclusive results similar but weaker correlations were found for the bilaterally rupturing earthquakes we studied although the static stress change also may trigger seismicity it and the seismicity it triggers are expected to be similarly asymmetric only if the final slip is skewed toward the rupture terminus for several of the directive earthquakes we suggest that the seismicity rate change correlates better with the dynamic stress field than the static stress change manuscript received 1 march 2002

seismic evidence for an earthquake nucleation phase near source observations show that earthquakes initiate with a distinctive seismic nucleation phase that is characterized by a low rate of moment release relative to the rest of the event this phase was observed for the 30 earthquakes having moment magnitudes 2 6 to 8 1 and the size and duration of this phase scale with the eventual size of the earthquake during the nucleation phase moment release was irregular and appears to have been confined to a limited region of the fault it was characteristically followed by quadratic growth in the moment rate as rupture began to propagate away from the nucleation zone these observations suggest that the nucleation process exerts a strong influence on the size of the eventual earthquake

finite faults and inverse theory with applications to the 1979 imperial valley earthquake abstract using a representation theorem from elastodynamics subsurface slip on a known fault is formulated as the solution to an inverse problem in which recorded surface ground motion is the data two methods of solution are presented the least squares method which minimizes the squared differences between theory and data and the constrained least squares method which simultaneously maintains a set of linear inequalities instabilities in the solution are effectively eliminated in both methods and the sensitivity of the solution to small changes in the data is quantitatively stated the inversion methodology is applied to 77 components of near field ground acceleration recorded during the 15 october 1979 imperial valley earthquake the faulting is constrained to propagate bilaterally away from the epicenter at an average velocity of 90 per cent of the shear wave speed on a vertical fault plane extending from the surface to 10 km depth inequality constraints are used to keep the faulting sequence physically reasonable by maintaining right lateral motion and positive slip velocity the preferred solution is stable and provides a good fit to the data it is also realistic and consistent with observed surface offsets and independent estimates of seismic moment

diagnosis of time of increased probability of strong earthquakes in different regions of the world algorithm cn abstract an algorithm for intermediate term earthquake prediction is suggested which allows diagnosis of the times of increased probability of strong earthquakes tips tips are declared for the time period of one year and an area with linear dimensions of a few hundred kilometers and can be extended in time the algorithm is based on the following traits of an earthquake flow level of seismic activity its temporal variation clustering of earthquakes in space and time their concentration in space and their long range interaction the algorithm is normalized so that it can be applied in various regions without readaptation tips diagnosed by the algorithm precede 80 of strong earthquakes and take on average 24 of the total time

control of rupture by fault geometry during the 1966 parkfield earthquake a reanalysis of the available data for the 1966 parkfleld california earthquake mr 5 suggests that although the ground breakage and aftershocks extended about 40 km along the san andreas fault the initial dynamic rupture was only 20 to 25 km in length the foreshocks and the point of initiation of the main event locate at a small bend in the mapped trace of the fault detailed analysis of the p wave first motions from these events at the gold hill station 20 km southeast indicates that the bend in the fault extends to depth and apparently represents a physical discontinuity on the fault plane other evidence suggests that this discontinuity plays an important part in the recurrence of similar magnitude 5 to 6 earthquakes at parkfield analysis of the strong motion records suggests that the rupture stopped at another discontinuity in the fault plane an en echeion offset near gold hill that lies at the boundary on the san andreas fault between the zone of aseismic slip and the locked zone on which the great 1857 earthquake occurred foreshocks to the 1857 earthquake occurred in this area sieh 1978 and the epicenter of the main shock may have coincided with the offset zone if it did a detailed study of the geological and geophysical character of the region might be rewarding in terms of understanding how and why great earthquakes initiate where they do

three dimensional simulations of ground motions in the san bernardino valley california for hypothetical earthquakes on the san andreas fault three dimensional finite difference simulations of elastic waves in the san bernardino valley were performed for two hypothetical earthquakes on the san andreas fault a point source with moment magnitude m5 and an extended rupture with m6 5 a method is presented for incorporating a source with arbitrary focal mechanism in the grid synthetics from the 3 d simulations are compared with those derived from 2 d vertical cross section and 1 d flat layered models the synthetic seismograms from the 3 d and 2 d simulations exhibit large surface waves produced by conversion of incident s waves at the edge of the basin seismograms from the flat layered model do not contain these converted surface waves and underestimate the duration of shaking the seismograms from the 3 d simulations have larger amplitude coda than do the seismograms from the 2 d case because of the presence of off azimuth surface wave arrivals in the 3 d simulations that are not included in the 2 d simulations snapshots of the wavefield of the 3 d simulation show that these off azimuth arrivals represent surface waves reflected from the edges of the basin the anelastic attenuation of the sediments is a key parameter controlling the overall duration of motion some of the coda energy at rock sites near the basin edges represents leakage of surface wave energy out of the basin for the m6 5 earthquake simulation the largest ground velocities occur where surface waves reflected from the edge of the basin interfere constructively with the trapped waves that follow the direct s wave maps of maximum ground velocity are produced for two directions of rupture propagation the largest velocities occur in localized portions of the basin the location of the largest velocities changes with the rupture propagation direction contours of maximum shaking are also dependent on asperity positions and radiation pattern

three dimensional geological structures and sliding factors and modes of loess landslides loess environments such as the chinese loess plateau are geologically fragile because of their great thickness loose structure crisscrossing ravines and gullies broken terrain dry climate severe erosion and unevenly distributed rainfall as a consequence loess areas are highly prone to environmental problems and geological hazards the geological structure of the loess is one of the main factors that controls occurrence of these geohazards this study investigated the mechanism of loess landslides and their sliding control mode from the perspective of their geological structure using this mechanism a three dimensional geological model of loess landslides was established the study shows that the structural planes in loess divide a complete slope into separate blocks which enables the fast and deep infiltration of surface water via seepage channels and reduces the shear strength of the soil mass inducing landslides the development and formation of loess landslides are primarily controlled by structural planes and influenced by infiltrated water softening the structural plains various types of structural planes may combine and form structural bodies of different types and scales which control the type depth and scale of loess landslides

geological hazards in loess terrain with particular reference to the loess regions of china abstract the considerable morphodynamic energy provided by the continuing tectonic evolution of asia is expressed in high erosional potentials and very high rates of sediment production that make this continent unequalled as a terrestrial source of primary silt many of these environments are hazardous threatening human occupation health and livelihood especially in regions of dense population such as the loess lands of north china dry loess can sustain nearly vertical slopes being perennially under saturated however when locally saturated it disaggregates instantaneously such hydrocompaction is a key process in many slope failures made worse by an underlying mountainous terrain of low porosity rocks gully erosion of loess may yield very high sediment concentrations 60 by weight characteristic vertical jointing in loess influences the hydrology enlarged joints develop into natural sub surface piping systems which on collapse produce a loess karst terrain collapsible loess up to 20 m thick is common on the western loess plateau foundation collapse and cracked walls are common many rapid events following periods of unusually heavy monsoonal rain slope failure is a major engineering problem in thick loess terrain flow slide and spread types being common the results are often devastating in both urban and rural areas an associated hazard is the damming of streams by landslides the human population increases the landslide risk in china notably through imprudent land use practices including careless water management a number of environmentally related endemic diseases arise from the geochemistry of loess and its groundwaters including fluorosis cretinism kaschin beck disease keshan disease and goitre the chinese desert margins also have a major atmospheric dust problem the effect of such dust upon human health in these extensive regions including many large cities has yet to be evaluated but pneumoconiosis is thought to affect several million people in north and west china

a fluidized landslide occurred in the loess plateau a study on loess landslide in south jingyang tableland abstract the south jingyang tableland is located on the southern loess plateau of china ever since the introduction of the water division project in the 1970s more than 40 loess landslides have occurred in this tableland terrace slope topography here on the morning of march 8 2016 a loess landslide induced by irrigation occurred in jiangliu village on the south jingyang tableland and around 20 000 m 3 of loess rapidly slid along a 65 m high slope for 260 m the moisture content of the slip mass displayed a dramatic change along the slip direction the water saturation degree in the landslide depression was relatively high and the leading edge was in a flow state there were some local natural sub areas but the overall area showed a characteristic fluidized a field investigation indicated that while macropores developed in the loess and deep joints provided a preferential passage for the infiltration of irrigation water which became a major water source for the slip mass the softening of the toe part of the slope caused by irrigation became the major factor resulting in the instability of the slip mass undrained triaxial shear tests on loess in natural water content and fully saturated state show that the enhanced saturation degree not only lowered the soil mass strength but also increased pore water pressure resulting in the zoning status of the jiangliu landslide the angle of reach formed during this landslide was approximately 14 which demonstrated motion characteristics of long runout further considering the standing water at the slope foot and unique properties of slip soils after the landslide occurred it is speculated that the motion mechanism of this high speed and long runout landslide was associated with loess liquefaction that led to sharp decrease in shear strength of the displaced landslide materials during the shear process

moment tensor solutions for the 24 november 1987 superstition hills california earthquakes the teleseismic long period waveforms recorded by the global digital seismograph network from the two largest superstition hills earthquakes are inverted using an algorithm based on optimal filter theory these solutions differ slightly from those published in the preliminary determination of epicenters monthly listing because a somewhat different improved data set was used in the inversions and a time dependent moment tensor algorithm was used to investigate the complexity of the main shock the foreshock origin time 01 54 14 5 m b 5 7 m s 6 2 had a scalar moment of 2 3 1025 dyne cm a depth of 8 km and a mechanism of strike 217 dip 79 rake 4 the main shock origin time 13 15 56 4 m b 6 0 m s 6 6 was a complex event consisting of at least two subevents with a combined scalar moment of 1 0 1026 dyne cm a depth of 10 km and a mechanism of strike 303 dip 89 rake 180

direct observation of rupture propagation during the 1979 imperial valley earthquake using a short baseline accelerometer array abstract the 1979 imperial valley california earthquake m s 6 9 was recorded on the el centro differential array a 213 m long linear array of 5 three component digital accelerometers 5 6 km from the nearest tectonic surface rupture although absolute time was not recorded on the array elements a relative time base was established using the main shock hypocentral p wave and the p and s waves from a later aftershock a cross correlation technique was used to measure the difference in arrival times of individual seismic waves in a moving 0 6 to 1 2 sec window at each array element which would then be converted into the wave9s slowness 1 velocity along the array when applied to the main shock vertical and horizontal accelerograms results from both components of motion indicated that the early arriving energy came from a source to the south of the array and the source of the energy moved rapidly to the north of the array during the strong shaking the ground motions at the array elements were well correlated for about the first 11 sec of motion these observations suggest that we have observed the initiation of rupture south of the array and its subsequent propagation along the fault to a position north of the array in about 10 sec and that the energy was radiated from a fairly compact region around the rupture front if the observed vertical and horizontal ground motions are assumed to be caused by p and s waves respectively then the observed slownesses show irregularities which can be interpreted as implying that the observed high frequency ground motions originated at irregularly distributed regions on the fault surface or that the rupture velocity was variable or both one possible interpretation of the data suggests that the rupture proceeded at near p wave velocity over a 7 km long section of fault average rupture velocities of about 2 7 to 3 2 km sec at 8 km depth are consistent with the data and 2 8 km sec is weakly preferred under the assumption that rupture propagates at a fixed fraction of the shear velocity the large vertical pulse which had a peak acceleration of 1 7 g at e06 was emitted from the portion of the fault extending 25 to 30 km northwest of the hypocenter near meloland overpass and not from the point on the fault closest to the differential array nothing can be said about fault behavior southeast of the hypocenter

analysis and interpretation of the heterogeneous rupture process application of the empirical green s function method and nonlinear inversion technique to large earthquakes abstract heterogeneous rupture processes were revealed using an empirical green s function egf method and a nonlinear inversion technique three events the 1980 east izu peninsula earthquake the 1983 japan sea earthquake and the 1987 east chiba earthquake are studied kernel events used as empirical green s functions were selected among the foreshocks and aftershocks the dimension and orientation of the fault plane were evaluated from the aftershock distribution and main shock fault plane solution a moment ratio between the main shock and the kernel event was estimated in order to identify the number of subfaults strong motion waveforms recorded at near distances were inverted to estimate moment release rupture time and rise time at each subfault with the stress drop calculated from the moment release and rise time distributions of these faulting parameters can be related to the aftershock distribution and geological structures general features are that the moment release was large where the aftershock activity was low that the irregular rupture propagations detected here were related to geological structures such as a ridge junction seamount chains and other tectonic plate boundaries and that stress drop distributions show some relation to the pattern of aftershocks an exception is the small moment release at the bending corner of the 1983 japan sea earthquake where the aftershock activity was low with this method it is possible to extract not only the detailed source history but also information on geophysical structures

the great jalisco mexico earthquakes of 1932 subduction of the rivera plate we have analyzed seismograms of the 3 june 1932 ms 8 2 and the 18 june 1932 ms 7 8 jalisco earthquakes and their aftershocks at manzanillo mnz guadalajara gum and tacubaya tac the aftershocks locations the first motions at mnz and the isoseismic maps of the two main shocks strongly suggest that a the 3 june 1932 earthquake initiated nw of but close to mnz and propagated nw for an estimated length of rupture of 220 km b the 18 june 1932 earthquake nucleated sw of mnz offshore and perhaps ruptured a length of about 60 km and c the width of rupture was approximately 80 km there is no evidence of events occurring se of mnz even up to 1 1 2 yr after the first main shock a gap of about 60 km remains between the aftershock areas of the 1932 jalisco and the 1973 colima earthquakes whose seismic potential is unknown although the boundary between the rivera and cocos plates is uncertain there is little doubt that the 1932 earthquakes broke the shallow part of the rivera subduction zone our results may help in quantifying seismic potential of tectonically similar areas such as the juan de fuca subduction zone in the nw united states

an inversion method to analyze the rupture processes of earthquakes using near field seismograms a new and very practical nonlinear least square inversion method has been developed to investigate the dislocation distribution and the character of rupture propagation on an earthquake fault plane the problem is parameterized using a model in which the fault is composed of subfaults which start rupturing with arbitrary magnitudes at arbitrary times the performance of the method is examined by numerical simulations and the method proves useful for the analysis of source processes of earthquakes including complicated cases such as multiple events the source process of the naganoken seibu earthquake of 1984 has been analyzed using strong motion seismograms the dislocation distribution and the character of rupture propagation have been successfully obtained

double parameter binary medium model of fissured loess abstract triaxial experiments were performed to study the mechanical behavior of fissured loess the experimental results showed that confining pressure and fissure dip each yield influence on the mechanical characteristics of loess as the confining pressure increased the peak strength of fissured loess was found to consistently increased conversely the increasing trend differed for samples with various fissure dips additionally the stress strain relationship of fissured loess was analyzed via a double parameter binary medium model this model was designed based on the homogenization theory and regarded fissured loess as a composite material comprising loess matrix elements and fissure elements the duncan chang hyperbolic model and modified cam clay model were employed to describe the stress strain relationship of loess matrix elements and fissure elements respectively the fitting results demonstrate that this model is suitable for modeling fissure development in loess

nonuniform seismic slip rates along the middle america trench revised estimates of seismic slip rates along the middle america trench are lower on the average than plate convergence rates but match them locally for example oaxaca along the cocos north american plate boundary this can be explained by nonuniformities in slip at points of aseismic ridge or fracture zone subduction for at least 81 yr and possibly several hundred years no major m sub s or 7 5 shallow earthquake is known to have occurred near the orozco fracture zone and tehuantepec ridge areas compared with the average recurrence periods for large earthquakes 33 8 yr since 1898 and 35 24 yr between 1542 and 1979 this suggests that either a large m or 8 4 event may be anticipated at such locations or that these are points of aseismic subduction large coastal terraces and evidence suggesting tectonic uplift are found onshore near the orozco fracture zone the larger discrepancy between plate convergence and seismic slip rates along the cocos carribbean plate boundary is more likely due to decoupling and downbending of the subducted plate we used the limited statistical evidence available to characterize both spatial and temporal deficiencies in recent seismic slip the observations appear consistent with a possible forthcoming episodemore of more intense seismic activity based on a series of comparisons with carefully delineated aftershock zones we conclude that the zones of anomalous seismic activity can be indentified by a systematic automated analysis of the worldwide earthquake catalog m sub b or 4 less

effects of three dimensional crustal structure and smoothing constraint on earthquake slip inversions case study of the mw6 3 2009 l aquila earthquake earthquake slip inversions aiming to retrieve kinematic rupture characteristics typically assume 1 d velocity models and a flat earth surface however heterogeneous nature of the crust and presence of rough topography lead to seismic scattering and other wave propagation phenomena introducing complex 3 d effects on ground motions here we investigate how the use of imprecise green s functions achieved by including 3 d velocity perturbations and topography affect slip inversion results we create sets of synthetic seismograms including 3 d heterogeneous earth structure and topography and then invert these synthetics using green s functions computed for a horizontally layered 1 d earth model we apply a linear inversion regularized by smoothing and positivity constraint and examine in detail how smoothing effects perturb the solution among others our tests and resolution analyses demonstrate how imprecise green s functions introduce artificial slip rate multiples especially at shallow depths and that the timing of the peak slip rate is hardly affected by the chosen smoothing the investigation is extended to recordings of the 2009 mw6 3 l aquila earthquake considering both strong motion and high rate gps stations we interpret the inversion results taking into account the lessons learned from the synthetic tests the retrieved slip model resembles previously published solutions using geodetic data showing a large slip asperity southeast of the hypocenter in agreement with other studies we find evidence for fast but subshear rupture propagation in updip direction followed by a delayed propagation along strike we conjecture that rupture was partially inhibited by a deep localized velocity strengthening patch that subsequently experienced afterslip

linearized inversion for fault rupture behavior application to the 1984 morgan hill california earthquake we present a technique to infer the rupture history of an earthquake from near source records of ground motion unlike most previous studies each point on the fault is assumed to slip only once when the rupture front passes with a spatially variable slip intensity in this parameterization the data are linearly related to slip intensity but nonlinearly related to rupture time we perform a linearized inversion for slip intensity and rupture time by iteratively perturbing an assumed starting model the inverse problem for the model perturbation is solved using a tomographic back projection technique smoothing and inequality constraints are applied to ensure that the resulting solution is stable and feasible asymptotic ray theory is used to calculate theoretical seismograms and partial derivatives with respect to model parameters in test cases with noisy synthetic data sets we found that it is possible to distinguish between rupture models having variable slip amplitude and models having variable rupture velocity provided the station coverage is adequate we apply the technique to recordings of the april 24 1984 morgan hill earthquake the results indicate that slip amplitude on the fault plane was extremely variable and that the rupture front did not propagate uniformly away from the hypocenter in particular rupture was delayed on a 12 km2 section of the fault approximately 14 km to the southeast of the hypocenter the rupture front surrounded the region which subsequently failed with a component of rupture propagation back toward the hypocenter similar behavior has been observed in dynamic rupture models with stress or strength inhomogeneities this segment of the fault ruptured with a large slip amplitude releasing 12 of the total seismic moment from 4 of the total area of the aftershock zone the surface trace of this section of the fault is characterized by a complex left step that could act to increase the normal stress acting across the fault however the distribution of aftershocks suggests that the fault at depth is simpler and that it may bend to the right in either case our rupture model suggests that this segment of the fault represents an asperity which initially resisted rupture but eventually ruptured massively we estimate the shear fracture energy for this earthquake to be 2 106 j m2

a new asymptotic method for the modeling of near field accelerograms we study high frequency radiation from a dislocation model of rupture propagation at the earthquake source we demonstrate that in this case all the radiation emanates from the rupture front and by a change of variables that at any instant of time the high frequency waves reaching an observer come from a line on the fault plane that we call isochrone an asymptotic approximation to near source velocity and acceleration is obtained that involves a simple integration along the isochrones for every time step it is shown that wave front discontinuities critical or stopping phases are radiated every time an isochrone becomes tangent to a barrier this leads to what we call the critical ray approximation which is given in a closed form the previous results are compared with discrete wavenumber synthetics obtained by bouchon 1982 for the gilroy 6 recording of the coyote lake earthquake of 1980 the fit between the asymptotic and full numerical method is extremely good the critical ray approximation permits the identification of different phases in bouchon s synthetics and the prediction of the behavior of the signal in the vicinity of their arrival time

waveform modeling of the november 1987 superstition hills earthquakes long period body wave data recorded at teleseismic distances and strong motion data at pasadena for the superstition hills earthquakes of 24 november 1987 are modeled to obtain the source parameters we will refer to the event that occurred at 0153 ut as eq1 and the event at 1316 ut as eq2 at all distances the first earthquake appears to be a simple left lateral strike slip event on a fault striking ne it is a relatively deep event with a source depth of 10 km it has a teleseismic moment of 2 7 10 25 dyne cm the second and more complex event was modeled in two ways by using eq1 as the green s function and by using a more traditional forward modeling technique to create synthetic seismograms the first method indicated that eq2 was a double event with both subevents similar but not identical to eq1 and separated by about 7 5 sec from the synthetic seismogram study we obtained a strike of 305 for the first subevent and 320 for the second both have dips of 80 and rakes of 175 the first subevent has a moment of 3 6 10 25 which is half that of the second we obtain depths of at least 6 km the teleseismic data indicate a preferred subevent separation of 30 km with the second almost due south of the first but the error bounds are substantial this would suggest that the subevents occurred on conjugate faults the strong motion data at pas however imply a much smaller source separation with the sources probably produced by asperities

environmental geology in loess areas of china there are several unfavorable geological hazards in the loess area of china the major purposes of environmental geology studies in this region are to expound the causes of these hazards and to determine treatments geological hazards include endemic diseases depletion of groundwater land subsidence ground fissures soil erosion and collapsibility of loess this article is a summary of studies regarding these hazards keshan disease and kaschin beck disease for example can be prevented and cured by adding selenates to table salt ponds can be constructed on the loess plateau and dikes around farmlands to collect rainfall to recharge groundwater resources excess extraction of groundwater is the major cause of land subsidence ground fissures in xi an are primarily caused by tectonics but over extraction of ground water strengthens its activity observation stations should be established in order to forecast and prevent landslides planting trees in a regional shelterbelt is the primary measure necessary to prevent soil erosion as a result of these geological studies valuable experience in preventing collapse of loess in china has been gained

seismic potential of acapulco san marcos region along the mexican subduction zone recently seismic quiescence based on p d e and i s c data has been reported in the acapulco san marcos region 16 17 2 n 98 5 99 7 w mcnally 1981 in order to assess the seismic potential of this region we have estimated seismic moments and slips associated with 1957 ms 7 5 and 1907 ms 8 0 events which occurred in this area historical data suggest that earthquakes occurred in this region in 1845 ms 7 9 and probably also in 1820 ms 7 6 we find preference for the time predictable model in the data set which if valid forecasts the next large earthquake between now and 1993 with 1985 as the most likely year although this forecast can not be taken as definitive since it is based on several assumptions each of which are reasonable but uncertain the implications of reported quiescence and the results of this paper suggest a careful monitoring of the area

rupture process of the ms 6 6 superstition hills california earthquake determined from strong motion recordings application of tomographic source inversion abstract we analyze strong motion recordings of the m s 6 6 superstition hills earthquake to determine the timing location spatial extent and rupture velocity of the subevents that produced the bulk of the high frequency 0 5 to 4 hz seismic energy radiated by this shock the earthquake can be characterized by three principal subevents the largest ones occurring about 3 and 10 sec after initiation of rupture timing relationships between pulses on the seismograms indicate that the three subevents are located within 8 km of each other along the northern portion of the superstition hills fault the two largest subevents display different directivity effects we apply a tomographic source inversion to the integrated accelerograms to determine the slip acceleration on the fault as a function of time and distance based on a one dimensional fault model the azimuthal distribution of amplitudes for the second subevent can be largely explained by a rupture that propagated about 2 km to the southeast along the superstition hills fault at a velocity about equal to the p wave velocity an alternative model with rupture propagating to the northeast along a conjugate fault plane can also account for the observed directivity of this subevent but it is not supported by the aftershock distribution the third subevent ruptured to the southeast along an 8 km long portion of the superstition hills fault at about the shear wave velocity this rupture propagation caused the relatively large accelerations and velocities observed in strong motion records for stations southeast of the hypocenter the long time intervals between the subevents and their relative proximity to each other indicate a very slow component to the rupture development the southern half of the superstition hills fault did not generate significant high frequency strong ground motion although it showed substantial co seismic surface displacement the subevents are situated along the same northern portion of the fault where most of the aftershocks are located the locations of the subevents appear to be controlled by bends in the fault mapped at the surface and by changes in basement structure at depth

depth of seismicity in the imperial valley region 1977 1983 and its relationship to heat flow crustal structure and the october 15 1979 earthquake focal depths from over 1000 earthquakes occuring between 1977 and 1983 in the imperial valley southern peninsular ranges are used to study relationships between the depth of seismicity heat flow and crustal structure this study used relocated a and b quality events from the california institute of technology catalog that were carefully selected to insure focal depth precision of 2 km regional variations in focal depth appear to be related to regional heat flow variation whereas local variations in focal depth especially in the central imperial valley may be related to crustal structure these variations are studied by rheologic modeling a comparison of focal depths of earthquakes occurring before and after the october 15 1979 m 6 6 earthquake indicates that aftershocks during the first 2 months of the sequence were 2 3 km deeper than earthquakes occurring in other time periods the deepest earthquakes in imperial valley are spatially associated with a subbasement dome near the northern end of the imperial fault this dome coincides with the region where the imperial fault undergoes a transition from stick slip behavior to aseismic fault creep models of slip during the 1979 mainshock are also compared with premainshock and postmainshock seismicity a relocation of the 1940 m 7 1 mainshock suggests that this sequence began by rupturing the same portion of the fault that experienced maximum slip during the 1979 mainshock

waveform inversion for point source moment tensor retrieval with variable hypocentral depth and structural model summary in the inversion scheme of high frequency seismograms recorded by a local network we have developed the unconstrained moment tensor description to study weak events which are believed to reflect small scale complexities of the tectonic structure in order to allow the source mechanism to change with time each moment tensor component has its own time history in the inversion the measure of the similarity between the synthetic seismograms and the observed records is obtained by minimizing the norm l2 of their difference the initial synthetic seismograms are constructed by summing a set of time dependent functions named base functions these base functions are computed by normal mode summation for a discrete set of source depths and for two structural models considered to represent acceptable extremes for the region under study in the course of the inversion using a linear interpolation new base functions are computed for intermediate values of the starting depths and structures thereafter new synthetic seismograms are computed and compared with the observed records until the convergence is reached within some pre assigned threshold for the norm l2 the method has been tested by treating as observed records synthetic seismograms both displacement and velocity generated for instantaneous and finite duration sources the observed records have been computed for two structures one belonging to the structural range within which the base functions were computed the other lying outside this range random noise has been superimposed on the records when inverting synthetic records computed for a structure contained within the range of interpolation for the base functions the full moment tensor is retrieved satisfactorily provided that the noise level does not exceed about 20 per cent for records computed for a structure lying outside this range a spurious volumetric part of the moment tensor appears however if the volumetric part of the moment tensor is removed the source time function can be reconstructed satisfactorily and the source mechanism can be determined from the deviatoric part of the moment tensor the procedure has been applied to vertical component seismograms recorded in the friuli ne italy area for the ml 2 9 event of 1987 december 27 the retrieved source mechanism is in agreement with the distribution of the few first arrival polarities available and the source time function indicates a possible multiple rupture process

reply to arthur frankel s comment on rupture process of the 1987 superstition hills earthquake from the inversion of strong motion data we thank art frankel for his continuing interest in unraveling the details of the complicated source process of the 1987 superstition hills earthquake his insightful comments and subsequent modeling on our part has helped to resolve some of the differences between the rupture model presented in wald et al 1990 hereafter referred to as wea and that published by frankel and wennerberg 1989 hereafter f w

times of increased probability of strong earthquakes m 7 5 diagnosed by algorithm m8 in japan and adjacent territories this paper continues to explore the possibility of identifying the times of increased probability tips of occurrence of a strong earthquake by premonitory intermediate term seismic activation in lower magnitude range as defined in the algorithm m8 a tip refers to a 5 year period and an area whose linear size is several times larger than that of an incipient earthquake in the course of the global test of the algorithm we applied it retrospectively to the data from the national earthquake information center worldwide earthquake catalog since the regional japan meteorological agency catalog was unavailable to authors related to the segment of circum pacific belt between latitudes 20 n and 48 n from the south of kuril arc to the taiwan and izu bonin arc the worldwide catalog allows us to diagnose tips for earthquakes above magnitude 7 5 from 1975 on five out of six earthquakes with m 7 5 occurred within the tips diagnosed by the algorithm m8 with a priori fixed parameters the missed earthquake occurred at the final stage of formation of the corresponding tip altogether the tips occupy less than 20 and times of expectation occupy about 8 of the total space time domain considered there are also current tips covering about half of the territory application of the additional algorithm of localization named mendocino scenario indicates that the southern part of the japan trench is an area deserving particular attention the results obtained here by no means constitute the definitive earthquake prediction but merely outline the territories for more detailed and comprehensive analysis if confirmed by regional data the results may be used for implementation of some safety measures and evaluation of other precursors including short term ones

teleseismic source parameters and rupture characteristics of the 24 november 1987 superstition hills earthquake long period body waves from the 24 november 1987 superstition hills earthquake are studied to determine the focal mechanism and spatial extent of the seismic source the earthquake is a complex event consisting of two spatially distinct subevents with different focal mechanisms two consistent models of rupture are developed for both models the second subevent begins 8 sec after the initiation of the first subevent and the preferred centroid depth lies between 4 to 8 km model 1 consists of two point sources separated by 15 to 20 km along strike of the superstition hills fault model 2 consists of one point source and one line source with a rupture velocity of 2 5 km sec with moment release distributed along strike of the focal plane at a distance of 10 to 22 km from the epicenter these moment release patterns show that a significant amount of long period energy is radiated from the southern segment of the fault total moment release for both models is approximately 8 10 25 dyne cm both models also suggest a change of dip from near vertical near the epicenter to steeply southwesterly dipping along the southern segment of the fault the difference in rupture characteristics and fault dips seen teleseismically is also reflected in aftershock and afterslip data and crustal structure underlying the two fault segments the northern segment had more aftershocks and a smaller proportion of afterslip than the southern segment the boundary between the two segments lies at a step in the basement that separates a deeper metasedimentary basement to the south from a shallower crystalline basement to the north

rupture characteristics and tomographic source imaging of ml 3 earthquakes near anza southern california the rupture characteristics of several ml 3 earthquakes near anza california are determined from time domain analysis of path corrected displacement pulses these pulses are corrected for propagation effects apparent attenuation scattering site resonance using the waveforms of adjacent small events ml 2 1 as empirical green s functions the earthquakes studied occurred during two swarm sequences near cahuilla in an area characterized by swarm activity at shallow depth 5 km the data consist of seismograms recorded by the anza seismic network a high dynamic range local array with digital telemetry the waveforms of adjacent small events ml 2 1 are deconvolved from those of the ml 3 events to yield the source time functions of the larger earthquakes the ml 3 earthquakes display a variety of rupture modes similar to those reported for large shocks but over much shorter time scales and distances events with single and multiple ruptures are observed relative locations of the subevents are obtained from azimuthal differences in the time separation of pulses in the deconvolved displacement waveforms some events as small as ml 2 4 display unilateral rupture propagation as manifested by azimuthal variations in the pulse widths of the deconvolved displacement pulses a tomographic back projection technique is applied to the deconvolved displacement pulses to image the slip velocity on the fault as a function of time after nucleation and distance along the fault using a one dimensional fault model the tomographic inversion for one of the events ml 2 4 reveals a unilateral rupture with rupture velocity about equal to the shear wave velocity vs and fault length of 300 m a similar inversion for an ml 3 7 event resolves two subevents separated by about 200 m and yields an average rupture velocity of 0 8vs these rupture velocities are similar to those reported for large earthquakes indicating that rupture velocity is independent of seismic moment down to 3 1 1019 dyn cm the smallest event studied there are clear variations in pulse width for neighboring events with similar seismic moments implying significant differences in static stress drops factor of five variations in stress drop 11 61 bars are calculated for events within 200 m of each other thus the stress and or strength along this fault zone varies considerably over distances of hundreds of meters

seismic gaps and recurrence periods of large earthquakes along the mexican subduction zone a reexamination abstract seismic gaps and recurrence periods of large shallow interplate earthquakes along the mexican subduction zone are reexamined after combining information from a catalog of nineteenth century9s earthquakes some relocated epicenters of the early part of this century source parameters of recent large earthquakes and redetermined magnitudes of great shallow earthquakes of this century tehuantepec and michoacan gaps have not experienced a large shock in this century and perhaps none in the past century they are either aseismic or have anomalously large repeat times guerrero jalisco and ometepec regions presently appear to have a high seismic potential observed average repeat times of large earthquakes m s 7 4 in six regions east central and west oaxaca san marcos petatlan and colima are between 32 to 56 yr data of this century indicate that the strain is released mostly in large events m s 7 4 a simple dislocation model with parameters obtained from the studies of recent earthquakes explains the observed recurrence periods quite well the b value for this zone is not meaningful an observation which is of significance for seismic risk estimation most of seismic moment or equivalently seismic energy release since 1800 appears to occur for 15 yr followed by relative quiescence in the next 15 yr

controls on elevated fluoride and arsenic concentrations in groundwater from the yuncheng basin china chemical analysis of groundwater and sediments was carried out to investigate causes of elevated f 1 5 6 6 mg l and as concentrations 10 27 mu g l one sample affected by local contamination with 4870 mu g l as in groundwater from the yuncheng basin northern china groundwater from 9 out of 73 wells contains both f and as concentrations above world health organisation safe drinking guidelines 1 5 mg l and 10 mu g l respectively f concentrations above safe levels are more widespread than as 27 vs 12 wells the elevated as and f concentrations represent a significant health risk as groundwater is widely used to supply agricultural and domestic water in the region high f and as concentrations occur in shallow groundwater affected by agriculture and deep groundwater with long residence times 13 ka that shows little sign of anthropogenic influence the strong positive correlation between groundwater f cl and as cl ratios r 2 0 98 and 0 77 in shallow and deep groundwater respectively indicates that these elements are mobilized and enriched by common processes positive correlations between f and as concentrations and na ca ratios r2 0 67 and 0 46 respectively indicate that groundwater major ion chemistry plays a significant role in mobilizing f and as mobilization likely occurs via de sorption of as and f anions e g haso 4 2 and f from hydrous metal oxides moderate positive correlations between ph and as and f concentrations r 2 0 36 and 0 17 respectively indicate that high ph may favour de sorption while hco 3 may act as a sorption competitor high groundwater na ca ratios likely result from cation exchange while ph and hco 3 contents are predominantly controlled by carbonate weathering reactions sediments from the area were reacted with various water solutions producing f concentrations between 0 49 and 2 7 mg l and as concentrations between 0 51 and 16 7 mu g l up to 45 more f and 35 more as were released when sediments were reacted with a na rich ca poor solution compared to a ca rich solution this is consistent with increased mobilization of f and haso 4 2 by na rich ca poor groundwater increasing f and as concentrations across a wide area caused by high levels of pumping is a potential future health concern c 2011 elsevier ltd all rights reserved

conditional probabilities for the recurrence of large and great interplate earthquakes along the mexican subduction zone abstract time dependent conditional probabilities for the recurrence of large and great interplate earthquakes along the mexican subduction zone are presented for time intervals of 5 10 and 20 yr duration i e 1986 1991 1986 1996 and 1986 2006 at present the central oaxaca 97 3 to 97 7 w ometepec san marcos 98 2 to 99 5 w and central guerrero 100 to 101 w segments stand out as having the highest probability for the recurrence of large and great earthquakes in the near future segmentation of the margin is delineated by the rupture zones of the most recent earthquakes occurring in each area for segments of the mexican margin with one or more known recurrence intervals probability estimates are based on the observed average recurrence time for each segment and the lognormal probability distribution function use of a generic distribution function nishenko and buland 1987 allows a more stable estimate of average recurrence times than are available from a few observations a long term prediction time window is also defined based on the 90 per cent confidence interval for our estimates of the recurrence time use of a predetermined confidence interval conveys valuable additional information as to the precision and information content of the forecast for those segments of the margin with only one prior event and hence no historically observed recurrence times repeat times are estimated by extrapolating the observed recurrence time behavior in oaxaca subject to the assumptions that recurrence time scales only as a function of the ratio of seismic displacement and convergence rate and that all events are characterized as simple sources i e involve the rupture of a single asperity

recent large earthquakes along the middle american trench and their implications for the subduction process several large shallow earthquakes ms 7 0 have occurred along the middle american trench since the installation of the wwssn network included are the 1965 1968 and 1978 oaxaca events the 1970 chiapas event the 1973 colima event and the 1979 petatlan event these earthquakes have been studied in an attempt to identify similarities and differences between them that may lead to a better understanding of fracture and subduction processes the events have seismic moments ranging from 1 0 1027 dyne cm for the 1968 event to 3 2 1027 dyne cm for the 1978 event all events are of predominantly thrust type consistent with subduction to the northeast of the cocos plate body waves for the 1965 1968 1978 and 1979 events along the trench indicate rather simple faulting processes these events all had focal depths of 15 to 20 km and stress drops of the order of 10 bars the 1970 and 1973 events the easternmost and westernmost respectively of the events studied here are located close to triple junctions for the cocos north america caribbean plates 1970 and the cocos north america rivera plates 1973 these two events generated more complex body waves than the oaxaca and petatlan quakes this source complexity may have been related to the more complicated tectonics near the 1970 and 1973 epicenters this may offer a new perspective to viewing source complexity in relation to subduction zones

application of the cn intermediate term earthquake prediction algorithm to the area of the southern external dinarides the paper presents the results of application of the cn algorithm to the area of the southern external dinarides two cases are considered one for the knowledge gained throughout the considered period of time 1936 1996 and the other when learning ceased in 1986 in the first case 8 out of 9 strong earthquakes could have been predicted three false alarms are declared covering 7 of the total time considered and tips occupy 32 of the total time there is no clear relation between the tips duration and the size of the related earthquake the second case when the cn functions are defined on the basis of a shorter learning period produces even slightly better results only two false alarms are declared in both cases current alarm exists in the region all attempts to reduce the area of the regional polygon resulted in poorer prediction results

precursory seismic quiescence past present and future precursory seismic quiescence has played a major role in most of the succesful earthquake predictions made to date in addition to these successes the number of detailed post mainshock documentations of precursory quiescence is steadily growing these facts suggest that precursory quiescence will play an important role in earthquake prediction programs of the future for this reason it is important to critically evaluate the present state of knowledge concerning this phenomenon the history of observations of precursory seismic quiescence includes work on seismic gaps and seismic preconditions as well as actual studies of temporal quiescence these papers demonstrated the importance of quantitative evaluation of seismicity rates and the benefits of systematic analysis during the early 1980 s the impact of man made effects on seismicity rates was demonstrated for the first time despite progress in catalog understanding the identification and correction of man made seismicity changes remains as the major barrier to earthquake prediction using these data effects of man made changes are apparent in many past studies of seismicity patterns making the results difficult to evaluate recent experience with real time anomalies has demonstrated the necessity of determining the false alarm rates associated with quiescence precursors determination of false alarm rates depends on quantitative definitions of anomalies and statistical evaluations of their significance a number of successful predictions which have been made on the basis of seismic quiescence provide important lessons for present and future work there are many presently unanswered questions regarding seismic quiescence which must be answered before we can determine the reliability of this phenomena as a precursor

on the inference of absolute stress levels from seismic radiation abstract spudich p k p 1992 on the inference of absolute stress levels from seismic radiation in t mikumo k aki m ohnaka l j ruff and p k p spudich editors earthquake source physics and earthquake precursors tectonophysics 211 99 106 this paper determines the conditions under which it is possible to learn the absolute stress level at a subset of points on a fault from observation of the fault kinematics specifically the points on a rupturing fault can be divided into two groups those points at which the rake rotates during the rupture process and those points at which the rake does not rotate if it is true that sliding frictional traction is collinear with the instantaneous velocity of one side of a fault then at the former group of points having rotating rakes there is a unique absolute stress consistent with the motion while at the latter group of points having rakes that do not rotate the absolute stress is unspecified by the motion published dislocation solutions for the 1979 imperial valley 1986 north palm springs 1987 whittier narrows and 1989 loma prieta california earthquakes are examined for evidence of temporal rotations of rake at the hypocenters and largest asperities the 1986 north palm springs earthquake shows evidence of a possible rake rotation at the hypocenter this may imply a low absolute stress level

properties of the seismic nucleation phase abstract near source observations show that earthquakes begin abruptly at the p wave arrival but that this beginning is weak with a low moment rate relative to the rest of the main shock we term this initial phase of low moment rate the seismic nucleation phase we have observed the seismic nucleation phase for a set of 48 earthquakes ranging in magnitude from 1 1 8 1 the size and duration of the seismic nucleation phase scale with the total seismic moment of the earthquake suggesting that the process responsible for the seismic nucleation phase carries information about the eventual size of the earthquake the seismic nucleation phase is characteristically followed by quadratic growth in the moment rate consistent with self similar rupture at constant stress drop in this paper we quantify the properties of the seismic nucleation phase and offer several possible explanations for it

calculation of earthquake rupture histories using a hybrid global search algorithm application to the 1992 landers california earthquake a method is presented for the simultaneous calculation of slip amplitudes and rupture times for a finite fault using a hybrid global search algorithm the method we use combines simulated annealing with the downhill simplex method to produce a more efficient search algorithm then either of the two constituent parts this formulation has advantages over traditional iterative or linearized approaches to the problem because it is able to escape local minima in its search through model space for the global optimum we apply this global search method to the calculation of the rupture history for the landers california earthquake the rupture is modeled using three separate finite fault planes to represent the three main fault segments that failed during this earthquake both the slip amplitude and the time of slip are calculated for a grid work of subfaults the data used consist of digital teleseismic p and sh body waves long period broadband and short period records are utilized to obtain a wideband characterization of the source the results of the global search inversion are compared with a more traditional linear least squares inversion for only slip amplitudes we use a multi time window linear analysis to relax the constraints on rupture time and rise time in the least squares inversion both inversions produce similar slip distributions although the linear least squares solution has a 10 larger moment 7 3 1026 dyne cm compared with 6 6 1026 dyne cm both inversions fit the data equally well and point out the importance of 1 using a parameterization with sufficient spatial and temporal flexibility to encompass likely complexities in the rupture process 2 including suitable physically based constraints on the inversion to reduce instabilities in the solution and 3 focusing on those robust rupture characteristics that rise above the details of the parameterization and data set

tomographic imaging of the earthquake rupture process to advance our understanding of the earthquake rupture process we must develop methods that will map observations into the space time variation of seismic moment release on the fault plane while the temporal history of overall moment release is relatively easy to obtain from p waves there has been no objective quantitative method available to directly determine the spatial variation in moment release the theoretical connection between spatially varying moment release and the resultant seismogram is a linear integral relationship specifically a radon transform this paper outlines a linear inverse method that provides a high resolution tomographic image of the space time varying moment density function application of the method to p waves from the large 1976 mindanao earthquake demonstrates the ability of this method to reliably extract coherent pulses of moment release in space and time

shaking intensity thresholds for rock falls and slides evidence from 1987 whittier narrows and superstition hills earthquake strong motion records due to inconsistencies in using descriptive intensity scales to describe earthquake shaking necessary to trigger landslides arias intensity a quantity calculated from seismic strong motion records has been employed as a measure of the seismic energy required to initiate landslides because arias intensity is defined as the sum of all the squared acceleration values from a strong motion record it is a measure of the energy dissipated at a site by shaking it incorporates both amplitude and duration information making it more useful to compare with the failure of slopes than parameters such as peak acceleration arias intensities calculated from the 24 october 1987 superstition hills and the 1 october 1987 whittier narrows earthquakes in southern california allow comparisons with the limits of landslides specifically falls and slides from rock and soil in these two earthquakes these comparisons establish two shaking thresholds for the limits of falls and slides a range of 0 08 to 0 6 m sec is observed for tertiary and younger deposits while the range of 0 01 to 0 07 m sec is observed for mesozoic and older rocks these two ranges of shaking levels are controlled by the relative degree of fracturing and aperture of fracture systems within the two general age groups of rocks and soils in the los angeles area and the imperial valley

mechanics of fault junctions a sharp bend in a fault must be part of a triple junction and slip on the three fault segments at the junction must have a vector sum of zero in order to avoid an unphysical 1 r stress singularity accompanying the slip a volume change occurs at the junction either a void opens or intense local deformation is required to avoid material overlap the energy absorbed due to the volume change is proportional to the slip increment times the total past slip accumulated at the junction at a new junction the energy absorbed is a small fraction of the energy released by slip on the fault system but after a number of earthquakes proportional to shear modulus over confining stress the junction becomes a strong barrier to further slip although slip occurs more easily on old rupture surfaces than on fresh fractures the growing barrier strength of junctions requires that there be some fresh fracture in earthquakes perhaps a small fraction of the surface that slips in any earthquake is fresh fracture which could provide the instability needed to explain earthquakes a numerical model in two dimensional static plane strain shows even without accounting for energy absorbed at the junction that a bend in a fault acts as a barrier if slip is impeded on the associated fault spur the stress concentration at the bend will tend to induce slip on the spur slip occurring on the spur unstably with a drop in the coefficient of friction can induce increased slip on the main fault segments with no change in the coefficient of friction a fault junction provides a natural realization of barrier and asperity models without appealing to arbitrary variations of fault strength the location of the fresh fracture that occurs after a junction becomes a strong barrier remains an unanswered question it is likely to be initiated near the stress concentration at the old junction a model simulating the effect of fresh fracture near old junctions might explain earthquakes without appealing to an unstable friction law anywhere

toward understanding slip inversion uncertainty and artifacts 1 the main concept of seismic source tomography the projection lines along which the observed signals are back projected to the fault is extended to complete wavefields the so called dynamic projection strips dpss are defined and a method to construct the strips from individual waveforms is described in this way each individual station role in the inversion can be better understood synthetic models with two asperities two unilateral and one bilateral rupture scenarios are used as examples they are analyzed using two independent slip inversion methods with similar results bias of the rupture speed for all scenarios and a strong false asperity in the middle of the bilateral fault both artifacts can be explained by the dps analysis as inherent nonuniqueness of the inverse problem due to the joint effect of the two true asperities removal of some slip artifacts by imposing various constraints is discussed but most of the constraints are hardly applicable in practice as such it is recommended to look at least for possible indications of the most significant inversion artifacts this seems to be feasible through combining dpss derived from real data and synthetic models of various rupture scenarios for a given fault and stations the ideas are applied to the movri mountain earthquake in greece mw6 3 8 june 2008 it appears that the earthquake was predominantly unilateral however with a nonunique space time slip pattern few equivalent nonsmooth models all fitting the data equally well are illustrated

slip distribution of the 1992 landers earthquake and its implications for earthquake source mechanics we use near source 10 to 164 km displacement seismograms to image the slip distribution and rupture history of the 28 june 1992 mw 7 3 landers california earthquake aftershock seismograms from similar distances are modeled to find the velocity model and frequency range 0 05 to 0 25 hz over which theoretical green s functions are most accurate and the measure of fit is used as an upper bound on theoretical error in the mainshock inversion we represent the rupture surface with three planar segments divided into 3 by 3 km elements extending from the surface to 18 km depth and solve for the slip distribution and the rupture time model that minimizes misfit to both recorded seismograms and mapped surface displacement in a least squares sense we investigate two faulting models one with a uniformly short 3 sec rise time everywhere on the fault surface and the other with a variable rise time 2 to 6 sec we perform sensitivity tests using synthetic data from a hypothetical earthquake to evaluate model resolution and solution stability in the sensitivity tests both fault models recover similar slip and rupture features but neither is capable of imaging details of the rise time for the landers earthquake we find an average rupture velocity of 2 5 km sec and use this average for a starting model in a linearized inversion for rupture time in our solutions of slip amplitude distribution the southernmost johnson valley fault segment has 20 of the total seismic moment 6 to 8 1019 n m with small displacements near the hypocenter the homestead valley segment contributes half of the moment with the largest slip amplitudes 25 to 35 km northwest of the hypocenter at 4 to 12 km depth and the camp rock emerson segment contributes the remaining moment with the largest slip amplitude 35 to 50 km northwest of the hypocenter in the shallow crust 9 km there is some evidence that the rupture front is delayed as it encounters high slip regions suggesting that prior to the mainshock these areas were further from failure owing either to greater strength or lower prestress

behavior of the superstition hills fault during the past 330 years we have investigated the recent prehistoric behavior of the superstition hills fault by examining its effect on the beach deposits of ancient lake cahuilla excavation of these sediments in three dimensions where they are cut by the fault has enabled determination of total offset since the latest highstand of the lake about 330 years ago as of 3 march 1988 total dextral offset was 1106 50 mm about 609 mm of this amount can be attributed to one or more slip events before 1987 the remaining slip occurred during the moderate earthquake of 24 november 1987 and as subsequent aftercreep additional aftercreep here might produce a total of 1210 100 mm for that event thus if afterslip continues according to our prediction slip associated with the penultimate seismic slip event on the superstition hills fault was only about half of the co seismic slip and predicted afterslip associated with the 1987 earthquake this difference established at a single site on the fault may reflect a larger size for the 1987 event than for its predecessor we calculate that the slip rate of the superstition hills fault zone averaged over the past 330 years is between about 2 and at least 6 mm yr at this site during this time the average interval between large surface slip events on the superstition hills fault has been between about 150 and 300 years the pre 1987 slip event documented in our excavations could have occurred at any time between a d 1660 and about a d 1915 these results are significant for understanding earthquake recurrence and patterns of earthquakes in the imperial and coachella valleys

a faulting model for the 1979 imperial valley earthquake by comparing synthetic particle velocities with the near source strong motion data we have constructed by trial and error a faulting model for the 1979 imperial valley earthquake the calculation of the synthetic seismograms takes into account the vertical inhomogeneity of the elastic parameters in the imperial valley and the spatial variation of the slip rate parameters on the fault plane the independent slip rate parameters are 1 the strike slip rate amplitude 2 the dip slip rate amplitude 3 the duration that slip rate is nonzero the rise time of the slip function and 4 the rupture time which determines when the slip rate is initiated our faulting model has the following principal features 1 faulting occurred on the imperial fault and on the brawley fault rupture on the brawley fault being triggered by rupture on the imperial fault 2 the imperial fault is a plane 35 km long and 13 km wide with a strike of 323 measured clockwise from north and a dip of 80 ne the brawley fault is a 10 km long and 8 km wide plane with a strike of 360 and a dip of 90 3 faulting on the imperial fault is primarily right lateral strike slip with a small component of normal dip slip in the sediments at its northern end the larger strike slip rates are generally confined between depths of 5 and 13 km with maximum values of about 1 0 m s the duration varies on the fault with a maximum of 1 9 s which is considerably shorter than the total time for the rupture to take place 4 the rupture velocity on the imperial fault is highly variable locally it exceeds the shear wave velocity and in one instance the compressional wave velocity the average rupture velocity though is less than the shear wave velocity 5 although the slip on the brawley fault contributes only about 4 of the total moment it greatly affects the ground motion at nearby stations 6 the total seismic moment is 6 7 1018 n m where the imperial fault contributes 6 4 1018 n m and the brawley fault contributes 2 7 1017 n m in the process of trying almost 300 faulting models we found that given the elastic parameters of the medium the synthetic seismograms were most sensitive to the specification of the rupture time although the slip rate amplitudes are linearly related to the data the rupture time and the duration are not the parameterization of the nonlinear variables has a strong effect on the generation of synthetic seismograms from a finite fault

times of increased probability of large earthquakes ms 7 5 along the mexican subduction zone abstract using the method of pattern recognition of infrequent events we explore the possibility of identifying the times of increased probability tip of occurrence of large earthquakes ms 7 5 along the mexican subduction zone a tip refers to a 5 year period within which a strong earthquake has a high probability of occurrence we analyzed the seismicity for the regions of chiapas eastern oaxaca 91 97 w region 1 western oaxaca guerrero 97 102 w region 2 and michoacan colima jalisco 102 106 w region 3 for the time interval 1970 1991 with the national oceanic and atmospheric administration seismic catalog as the source data the premonitory intermediate term seismic activation to identify a tip was measured using the algorithm m8 three out of the five earthquakes of ms 7 5 that occurred during the studied period are diagnosed by algorithm m8 and for the region 3 segment a tip is identified that will end between 1994 and 1996 we consider the area between the western colima gap and the jalisco region 103 7 106 0 w as the zone where the forecast earthquake has a higher than usual probability of occurrence our results by no means constitute a definitive earthquake prediction but suggest the need for detailed seismic analysis and the study of other geophysical precursors along the colima jalisco segment

inversion of strong ground motion and teleseismic waveform data for the fault rupture history of the 1979 imperial valley california earthquake a least squares point by point inversion of strong ground motion and teleseismic body waves is used to infer the fault rupture history of the 1979 imperial valley california earthquake the imperial fault is represented by a plane embedded in a half space where the elastic properties vary with depth the inversion yields both the spatial and temporal variations in dislocation on the fault plane for both right lateral strike slip and normal dip slip components of motion inversions are run for different fault dips and for both constant and variable rupture velocity models effects of different data sets are also investigated inversions are compared which use the strong ground motions alone the teleseismic body waves alone and simultaneously the strong ground motion and teleseismic records the inversions are stabilized by adding both smoothing and positivity constraints the moment is estimated to be 5 0 10 25 dyne cm and the fault dip 90 5 dislocation in the hypocentral region south of the united states mexican border is relatively small and almost dies out near the border dislocation then increases sharply north of the border to a maximum of about 2 m under interstate 8 dipslip motion is minor compared to strike slip motion and is concentrated in the sediments the best fitting constant rupture velocity is 80 per cent of the local shear wave velocity however there is a suggestion that the rupture front accelerated from the hypocenter northward the 1979 imperial valley earthquake can be characterized as a magnitude 5 earthquake at the hypocenter which then grew into or triggered a magnitude 6 earthquake north of the border

rupture history of the 1984 morgan hill california earthquake from the inversion of strong motion records near source strong motion velocity records and teleseismic short period p waveforms are modeled to obtain the spatial and temporal distribution of slip for the 1984 morgan hill earthquake both forward modeling and constrained least squares inversion techniques are used to interpret the strong motion velocity waveforms in the frequency range of approximately 0 2 to 2 0 hz these data support a nearly unilateral rupture to the southeast with a rupture propagation velocity of nine tenths of the local s wave velocity the majority of the slip occurs over a fault length of 25 km and to a first approximation can be interpreted as two main source regions each with an extent of about 5 km with their centers separated by about 12 km however each of the sources has detailed structure of its own and a simple two point source model is not an accurate representation of the morgan hill earthquake the second source occurs about 4 5 sec after the first and is approximately 3 times larger the maximum dislocation on the fault plane is about 1 m the total moment of the earthquake is estimated to be 2 1 10 25 dyne cm the morgan hill earthquake offers convincing evidence for very inhomogeneous slip and stress distributions on shallow strike slip faults

a catalog of shallow earthquakes of mexico from 1900 to 1981 a catalog of shallow earthquakes depth 65 km of mexico 15 to 20 n 94 5 to 105 5 w covering the period 1900 to 1981 is presented the catalog includes only those events whose magnitudes m ms or magnitude from pasadena are 5 9 it is most likely complete for shocks with ms 6 5 from july 1906 to december 1981 for many shocks ms has been determined from uppsala bulletins and or uppsala and gottingen wiechert seismograms the statistics of incremental frequency n ms shows a peak at ms 7 7 reinforcing a previous observation by singh et al 1981 in the range 6 4 ms 7 5 the observed n ms deviates significantly from an exponential distribution the catalog provides a basis for further statistical analysis of earthquakes in mexico

comparison of l1 and l2 norms in a teleseismic waveform inversion for the slip history of the loma prieta california earthquake abstract broadband digital teleseismic body waves p and sh are inverted to obtain the history of slip for the 17 october 1989 loma prieta earthquake comparison of finite fault waveform inversion results using an l 1 norm and an l 2 norm reveal some basic uncertainties in the rupture history that are not usually appreciated in earthquake source studies however the more robust features of the source can be identified that are less dependent on the choice of minimization norm from a consideration of first motion data and forward modeling of body waves the strike and dip of our model fault plane are set at 126 and 67 respectively the waveform inversion results indicate that the majority of the moment release occurs over a fault length of 35 to 40 km and a depth range of 2 to 18 km the hypocenter 18 km depth experienced a relatively small amount of slip the rupture propagated upward and bilaterally with a peak slip of about 3 m occurring at a depth of 10 km the average velocity of the rupture propagation is 2 5 km sec the details of the slip distribution depend on the minimization norm but two main sources can be identified with the larger source above and to the southeast of the hypocenter the rake vector varies considerably over the fault the southern source is mostly strike slip while the northern source is approximately equally partitioned between dip slip and strike slip there is also a trend for more strike slip motion at shallower depths the majority of the moment release occurs in the first 7 5 sec with an integrated moment of 2 6 10 26 dyne cm including smaller peripheral sources that are less well resolved raises the moment estimate to 3 0 10 26 dyne cm

displacement and geometrical characteristics of earthquake surface ruptures issues and implications for seismic hazard analysis and the process of earthquake rupture there now exist about three dozen historical earthquakes for which in vestigators have constructed maps of earthquake rupture traces accompanied by de scriptions of the coseismic slip observed along the fault strike the maps and slip distributions are compiled here to place observational bounds on aspects of seismic hazard analysis and fault mechanics analysis leads to an initial statistical basis to predict the end points of rupture and the amount of surface slip expected at sites along the strike during earthquakes on mapped faults the observations also give support to the ideas that there exists a process zone or volume of about 3 4 km in dimension at the fronts of large laterally propagating earthquake ruptures within which stress changes may be sufficient to trigger slip on adjacent faults and that the ultimate length of earthquake ruptures is controlled primarily by the geometrical complexity of fault traces and variations in accumulated stress levels along faults that arise due to the location of past earthquakes to this may be added the observation that the form of earthquake surface slip distributions is better described by asymmetric rather than symmetric curve forms and that earthquake epicenters do not appear to correlate in any systematic manner to regions of maximum surface slip observed along strike online material maps of surface ruptures digitized values and curve fits to surface slip distributions and notes and references for tables 1 and 2

source time functions of large mexican subduction earthquakes morphology of the benioff zone age of the plate and their tectonic implications we study source parameters of large shallow mexican subduction zone earthquakes 95 w to 106 w which occurred between 1928 and 1986 by modeling the p waves recorded on galitzin wilip seismograph in debilt dbn holland for post 1962 events the source parameters retrieved from dbn seismograms alone agree well with those obtained from long period world wide standardized seismograph network records giving us confidence in our results for pre 1962 events all earthquakes are shallow h 10 to 20 km with few exceptions the sources in oaxaca 95 w to 99 w are very simple to the northwest of 99 w they are simple as well as complex the ratio of surface wave to body wave seismic moment mos mop which is a measure of long to short period radiation is smaller in oaxaca 1 5 0 5 than in the regions northwest of 99 w 3 1 1 3 these results suggest a change in the plate interface characteristics near 99 w the sharp change in the rupture mode and the intersection of the o gorman fracture zone ofz with the trench occur near 99 w two strike slip events offshore close to ofz suggest a segmentation of the subducting plate near 99 w the age of the plate near the trench in oaxaca is not well known it is possible that it does not increase continuously from northwest to southeast in the region but jumps across 99 w if so then the older age of the subducted plate southeast of 99 w may be the cause of the distinct rupture mode of the oaxaca earthquakes the length of the benioff zone which is greatest below oaxaca 400 km and decreases toward the northwest can be explained by the correlation between the length of the subducted slab and the product of the lithosphere age and convergence rate the relative complexity of sources the weaker background seismicity and the lesser number of aftershocks northwest of oaxaca may be explained by a stronger interface coupling resulting from subduction of younger oceanic slabs 5 to 13 m y old in this region this however explains neither larger mos mop values northwest of oaxaca nor the low stress drop estimates obtained from the analysis of near field strong motion data for the michoacan earthquake of 1985 both of which indicate weaker coupling of the interface thus the issue of whether subduction of very young plates 10 m y old results in strong or weak coupling remains unsolved from the presently available mexican data