orogen parallel tangential motion in the late devonian early carboniferous southern appalachians internides in the internal southern appalachians orogen parallel lineation in flat lying amphibolite facies mylonites occurs over more than 700 km from north carolina to alabama along the inner piedmont western boundary in several areas distributed along this zone evidence of orogen parallel tangential movement is consistently associated with the lineation suggesting the amphibolite facies mylonites mark an orogen scale movement zone probably a decollement zone that formed in the middle crust amphibolite facies mylonites occur in the clairmont formation north of atlanta georgia abundant mesoscopic and microscopic kinematic indicators together with a dominant southwest trending lineation on a subhorizontal mylonitic foliation reveal a ductile southwestward movement of the inner piedmont on subhorizontal shear planes during the mylonitization synkinematic hornblende and biotite crystals extracted from a specimen of amphibolite suggest minimum k ar cooling ages of respectively 349 and 327 ma a minimum age

testing probabilistic seismic hazard estimates by comparison with observations an example in italy summary an evaluation of the actual reliability of probabilistic seismic hazard psh assessments provided by existing numerical techniques is mandatory to orientate new researches and improvements two procedures devoted to this task are proposed which are based on the comparison of the hazard estimates with empirical observations e g strong motion data these procedures have been applied to the estimates provided by the methodology adopted for most recent seismic hazard evaluations in italy the analysis shows that a significant mismatch exists between peak ground acceleration values characterized by an exceedence probability of 10 per cent in 30 yr and what has actually been observed at 68 accelerometric stations located on stiff soil where continuous seismicity monitoring has been performed in the last 30 yr although this finding should be considered with caution it suggests that a future re examination of the adopted psh computational model could be useful to avoid possible underestimates of seismic hazard in italy

tsunami history of an oregon coastal lake reveals a 4600 yr record of great earthquakes on the cascadia subduction zone bradley lake on the southern oregon coastal plain records local tsunamis and seismic shaking on the cascadia subduction zone over the last 7000 yr thirteen marine incursions delivered landward thinning sheets of sand to the lake from nearshore beach and dune environments to the west following each incursion a slug of marine water near the bottom of the freshwater lake instigated a few year to several decade period of a brackish 4 salinity lake four additional disturbances without marine incursions destabilized sideslopes and bottom sediment producing a suspension deposit that blanketed the lake bottom considering the magnitude and duration of the disturbances necessary to produce bradley lake s marine incursions a local tsunami generated by a great earthquake on the cascadia subduction zone is the only accountable mechanism extreme ocean levels must have been at least 5 8 m above sea level and the cumulative duration of each marine incursion must have been at least 10 min disturbances without marine incursions require seismic shaking as well over the 4600 yr period when bradley lake was an optimum tsunami recorder tsunamis from cascadia plate boundary earthquakes came in clusters between 4600 and 2800 cal yr b p tsunamis occurred at the average frequency of 3 4 every 1000 yr then starting 2800 cal yr b p there was a 930 1260 yr interval with no tsunamis that gap was followed by a 1000 yr period with 4 tsunamis in the last millennium a 670 750 yr gap preceded the a d 1700 earthquake and tsunami the a d 1700 earthquake may be the fi rst of a new cluster of plate boundary earthquakes and accompanying tsunamis local tsunamis entered bradley lake an average of every 390 yr whereas the portion of the cascadia plate boundary that underlies bradley lake ruptured in a great earthquake less frequently about once every 500 yr therefore the entire length of the subduction zone does not rupture in every earthquake and bradley lake has recorded earthquakes caused by rupture along the entire length of the cascadia plate boundary as well as earthquakes caused by rupture of shorter segments of the boundary the tsunami record from bradley lake indicates that at times most recently 1700 yr b p overlapping or adjoining segments of the cascadia plate boundary ruptured within decades of each other

ground motion relations for eastern north america predictive relations are developed for ground motions from eastern north american earthquakes of 4 0 m 7 25 at distances of 10 r 500 km the predicted parameters are response spectra at frequencies of 0 5 to 20 hz and peak ground acceleration and velocity the predictions are derived from an empirically based stochastic ground motion model the relations differ from previous work in the improved empirical definition of input parameters and em pirical validation of results the relations are in demonstrable agreement with ground motions from earthquakes of m 4 to 5 there are insufficient data to adequately judge the relations at larger magnitudes although they are consistent with data from the saguenay m 5 8 and nahanni m 6 8 earthquakes the underlying model parameters are constrained by empirical data for events as large as m 6 8

geodetic imaging of plate motions slip rates and partitioning of deformation in japan 1 interseismic deformation in japan results from the combined effects of tectonic processes including rotation of crustal blocks and the earthquake cycle process of elastic strain accumulation about upper plate faults and subduction zone interfaces we use spherical linear block theory constrained by geodetic observations from densely spaced global positioning system gps stations to estimate plate motions fault slip rates and spatially variable interplate coupling on the japan kuril sagami and nankai subduction zones the reference model developed in this paper consists of 20 blocks produces a mean residual velocity magnitude of 1 84 mm yr at 950 stations and accounts for 96 of the observed interseismic deformation signal we estimate fault slip rates in excess of 15 mm yr along the niigata kobe tectonic zone and itoigawa shizuoka tectonic line through central japan confirming their hypothesized roles as major tectonic boundaries oblique convergence across the nankai trough is partitioned with 3 4 of the 30 mm yr of trench parallel motion accommodated by strike slip motion on the subduction interface and the remaining 1 4 accommodated by right lateral slip on the median tectonic line in contrast our models suggest negligible slip partitioning in eastern hokkaido where oblique slip on the japan kuril subduction interface accommodates all of the trench parallel component of relative plate motion inferred spatial variations in the rake and magnitude of slip deficit on subduction zone interfaces reflect the influences of megathrust geometry and earthquake cycle processes such as enhanced elastic strain accumulation about seismic asperities and coseismic sense fault motion indicative of silent slip events or afterslip following large earthquakes

slow deformation and lower seismic hazard at the new madrid seismic zone global positioning system gps measurements across the new madrid seismic zone nmsz in the central united states show little if any motion these data are consistent with platewide continuous gps data away from the nmsz which show no motion within uncertainties both these data and the frequency magnitude relation for seismicity imply that had the largest shocks in the series of earthquakes that occurred in 1811 and 1812 been magnitude 8 their recurrence interval should well exceed 2500 years longer than has been assumed alternatively the largest 1811 and 1812 earthquakes and those in the paleoseismic record may have been much smaller than typically assumed hence the hazard posed by great earthquakes in the nmsz appears to be overestimated

test of seismic hazard map from 500 years of recorded intensity data in japan abstract maximum seismic intensity maps for japan are constructed using the recorded intensity data from 1498 to 2007 and are used to test the probabilistic seismic hazard map pshm by the headquarters for earthquake research promotion japan the historical intensity maps are compared with the hazard maps of probable maximum seismic intensity for a 475 yr return period assuming a poisson distribution 10 in 50 yrs we look at cases that include all events only subduction zone earthquakes and all events excluding subduction zone earthquakes the megathrust earthquakes in the subduction zones produce large bands of high intensities along the pacific coast side while onshore crustal earthquakes create a patchy distribution of large intensities over all of japan the maximum recorded intensity map for the past 500 yrs and the maximum predicted intensity map for the return period from the pshm are very similar for the cases including all events and the subduction zone earthquakes while there is poor correlation for the third category that includes mostly onshore crustal earthquakes if we consider only the amount of area not the specific locations the recorded intensity map and the pshm using the maximum case have a high degree of correlation for japanese meteorological agency jma intensity higher than 4 for all of the cases statistically the present hazard maps for japan seem to agree with the past intensity distributions and can be regarded as appropriate hazard maps even though there may be strong dependencies on uncertain model parameters for the pshms

ultralong period seismic study of the december 2004 indian ocean earthquake and implications for regional tectonics and the subduction process analysis of the earth s longest period normal modes shows that the december 2004 sumatra andaman earthquake was much larger mw 9 3 than ini tially inferred from surface wave data and involved slip on a much longer fault than initially inferred from body wave data the seismic moment and relative excitation of the normal modes indicate that the entire aftershock zone ruptured consistent with the large tsunami amplitudes in thailand sri lanka and india an apparent increase in seismic moment with period results from interference between parts of the fault the earthquake resulted from subduction of the indian plate beneath the burma microplate a sliver plate between the indian and sunda plates hence the rate and direction of convergence depends on the motion of the burma plate which is not well known convergence would be highly oblique if the rate of motion between burma and sunda is that inferred from spreading in the andaman sea and less if a slower rate is inferred from the sagaing fault the december earthquake was much larger than expected from a previously proposed relation based on the idea of seismic coupling in which such earthquakes occur only when young lithosphere subducts rapidly moreover a global reanalysis finds little support for this correlation hence we suspect that much of the apparent differences between subduction zones such as some trench segments but not others being prone to m w 8 5 events and hence oceanwide tsunamis may reflect the short earthquake history sampled this possi bility is supported by the variability in rupture mode at individual trench segments

active normal faulting in the upper rhine graben and paleoseismic identification of the 1356 basel earthquake we have identified an active normal fault in the epicentral area of the basel switzerland earthquake of 18 october 1356 the largest historical seismic event in central europe the event of 1356 and two prehistoric events have been characterized on the fault with geomorphological analysis geophysical prospecting and trenching carbon 14 dating indicates that the youngest event occurred in the interval 610 to 1475 a d and may correspond to the 1356 basel earthquake the occurrence of the three earthquakes induced a total of 1 8 meters of vertical displacement in the past 8500 years for a mean uplift rate of 0 21 millimeters per year these successive ruptures on the normal fault indicate the potential for strong ground movements in the basel region and should be taken into account to refine the seismic hazard estimates along the rhine graben

the parkfield prediction fallacy abstract the parkfield earthquake prediction is generally stated as a 95 probability that the next moderate earthquake there should occur before january 1993 that time limit is based on a two sided 95 confidence interval because at the time of the prediction 1985 it was already clear that the earthquake had not occurred prior to 1985 a one sided 95 confidence interval would have been more appropriate that confidence interval ended in october 1991 the parkfield prediction was based on an extrapolation of five of the six events in the 1857 to 1966 earthquake sequence the 1934 event was omitted because it did not fit the regularity exhibited by the other data the fallacy in the prediction is that it did not take account of other less contrived explanations of the parkfield seismicity e g not excluding the 1934 event even if the parkfield earthquake should occur in the near future it would be better explained by less contrived hypotheses

slip rates and seismic moment deficits on major active faults in mainland china 1 the chinese mainland features widespread active faults and intensive seismic activity both can be described in terms of slip rates on these faults previous studies of fault slip rates in mainland china have focused on individual faults or fault segments and large discrepancies exist among results derived from different methods here we derive a self consistent estimate of the slip rates on all major faults in mainland china using the recently updated gps data and an elastic block model the predicted slip rates are high in western and low in eastern china ranging from 25 1 2 0 mm yr in the himalayan thrust system to less than 1 0 mm yr in north china using these slip rates we estimated the rates of moment accumulation on the major fault zones and compared them with the seismic moment released on each fault zone using the chinese historical earthquake catalog that extends for more than 2000 years in many regions the results show nine seismic zones with large moment deficits unreleased moment future refinement of gps measurements and earthquake history will allow better estimates of slip rates on individual faults and better assessment of earthquake hazard on these faults in mainland china

comparison of geodetic and geologic data from the wasatch region utah and implications for the spectral character of earth deformation at periods of 10 to 10 million years the wasatch fault and adjacent fault zones provide an opportunity to compare present day deformation rate estimates obtained from space geodesy with geologic displacement rates over at least four temporal windows ranging from the last millennium up to 10 myr the three easternmost gps sites of the basin and range geodetic network bargen at this latitude define a 130 km wide region spanning three major normal faults extending east west at a total rate of 2 7 0 4 mm yr with an average regional strain rate estimated to be 21 4 nstrain yr about twice the basin and range average on the wasatch fault the vertical component of the geologic displacement rate is 1 7 0 5 mm yr since 6 ka 0 6 mm yr since 130 ka and 0 5 0 7 mm yr since 10 ma however it appears likely that at the longest timescale rates slowed over time from 1 0 to 1 4 mm yr between 10 and 6 ma to 0 2 to 0 3 mm yr since 6 ma the cumulative vertical displacement record across all three faults also shows time variable strain release ranging from 2 to 4 mm yr since 10 ka to 1 mm yr averaged over the past 130 kyr conventional earthquake recurrence models reid type behavior would require an accordingly large variation in strain accumulation or loading rate on a 10 kyr timescale for which there appears to be no obvious geophysical explanation alternatively seismic strain release given a wide range of plausible constitutive behaviors for frictional sliding may be clustered on the 10 kyr timescale resulting in the high holocene rates with comparatively low uniform strain accumulation rates on the 100 kyr timescale wallace type behavior the latter alternative combined with observations at the million year timescale and the likelihood of a significant contribution of postseismic transients implies maxima of spectral amplitude in the velocity field at periods of 10 myr variations in tectonic loading 10 kyr clustered strain release and of 100 years postseismic transients if so measurements of strain accumulation and strain release may be strongly timescale dependent for any given fault system

seismology speed and size of the sumatra earthquake we now have a clearer picture of the seismic features of last year s gigantic event our seismological results reveal that indonesia s devastating sumatra andaman earthquake on 26 december 2004 was 2 5 times larger than initial reports suggested second only to the 1960 chilean earthquake in recorded magnitude they indicate that it slowly released its energy by slip along a 1 200 km fault generating a long rupture that contributed to the subsequent tsunami now that the entire rupture zone has slipped the strain accumulated from the subduction of the indian plate beneath the burma microplate has been released and there is no immediate danger of a similar tsunami being generated on this part of the plate boundary although large earthquakes on segments to the south still present a threat

global frequency of magnitude 9 earthquakes for decades seismologists have sought causal relationships between maximum earthquake sizes and other properties of subduction zones with the underlying notion that some subduction zones may never produce a magnitude 9 or larger event the 2004 andaman m w 9 2 earthquake called into question such ideas given multicentury return times of the greatest earthquakes ignorance of those return times and our very limited observation span i suggest that we cannot yet make such determinations present evidence cannot rule out that any subduction zone may produce a magnitude 9 or larger earthquake based on theoretical recurrence times i estimate that one to three m9 earthquakes should occur globally per century and the past half century with five m9 events reflects temporal clustering and not the long term average

comparison of probabilistic seismic hazard estimates in italy abstract macroseismic intensity has recently attracted attention as a tool for validating probabilistic seismic hazard assessment psha studies or as an alternative method for psha in countries where the historical catalog is much longer than the instrumental one in italy the new seismic hazard map was recently produced using the cornell mcguire approach in terms of the peak ground acceleration characterized by a 10 exceedance probability for an exposure time of 50 yr a max we compare this map with an alternative one produced using a different approach based on a nonparametric and zonation free statistical analysis of local seismic histories in this case results are expressed in terms of the maximum intensity corresponding to an exceedance probability of not less than 10 for an exposure time of 50 yr i ref in order to compare the two maps we selected 1401 control sites where local seismic history includes at least 10 intensity values relative to felt effects documented during past earthquakes the values of a max and i ref at these sites have been ranked in the respective domains the spatial distribution of rank differences of a max and i ref values shows a strong correlation with the seismogenic zoning used in the calculation of psha following the cornell mcguire approach this suggests that the adopted zoning could be incomplete some further hidden sources may exist and too rough to capture actual seismogenic sources because more detailed zoning is prevented by the amount of data available the results obtained suggest the preference of zonation free approaches for seismic hazard assessment in italy furthermore among the possible zonation free approaches those that offer better exploitation of local information about the effects of past earthquakes would be preferred

the effect of crustal structure on strong ground motion attenuation relations in eastern north america strong ground motion attenuation relations are usually described by smoothly decreasing functions of distance however consideration of wave propagation in the crust suggests that attenuation relations should be more complex such complexity may be present in strong ground motion data for eastern north american earthquakes which show amplitudes in the distance range of 60 to 150 km that lie above the trends at smaller and greater distances using a wavenumber integration method to compute green s functions and close in recordings of several earthquakes as empirical source functions we have generated synthetic seismograms that are in good agreement with regional and strong motion recordings of eastern north american earthquakes from these synthetic seismograms we have shown that the observed interval of relatively high amplitudes may be attributable to postcritically reflected s waves from the moho the presence and location of the interval of relatively high amplitudes is highly dependent on the crustal velocity structure and may therefore be expected to show regional variation however for any realistic structure model there will be a transition in the attenuation relation from an interval at shorter distances less than about 100 km that is dominated by direct waves to an interval at greater distances that is dominated by postcritically reflected waves the synthetic seismograms have response spectral velocities that match those of the recorded data and their m blg values are in good agreement with observed values

compositional classification of kimberlitic and non kimberlitic ilmenite abstract ilmenite is one of the common kimberlitic indicator minerals recovered during diamond exploration and its distinction from non kimberlitic rock types is important this is particularly true for regions where these minerals are present in relatively low abundance and they are the dominant kimberlitic indicator mineral recovered difficulty in visually differentiating kimberlitic from non kimberlitic ilmenite in exploration concentrates is also an issue and distinguishing kimberlitic ilmenite from those derive from other similar rocks such as ultramafic lamprophyres is practically impossible ilmenite is also the indicator mineral whose compositional variety has the most potential to resolve provenance issues related to mineral dispersions with contributions from multiple kimberlite sources various published data sets from selected kimberlitic including kimberlites lamproites and various ultramafic lamprophyres and non kimberlitic rock types have been compiled and evaluated in terms of their major element compositions compositional fields and bounding reference lines for ilmenites derived from kimberlites sensu stricto ultramafic lamprophyres and other non kimberlitic rock types have been defined primarily on mgo tio2 graphs as well as mgo cr2o3 relationships

on the modified mercalli intensities and magnitudes of the 1811 1812 new madrid earthquakes we reexamine original felt reports from the 1811 1812 new madrid earthquakes and determine revised isoseismal maps for the three principal mainshocks in many cases we interpret lower values than those assigned by earlier studies in some cases the revisions result from an interpretation of original felt reports with an appreciation for site response issues additionally earlier studies had assigned modified mercalli intensity mmi values of v vii to a substantial number of reports that we conclude do not describe damage commensurate with intensities this high we investigate several approaches to contouring the mmi values using both analytical and subjective methods for the first mainshock on 02 15 lt december 16 1811 our preferred contouring yields m 7 2 7 3 using the area moment regressions of johnston 1996 for the 08 00 lt on january 23 1812 and 03 45 lt on february 7 1812 mainshocks we obtain m 7 0 and m 7 4 7 5 respectively our magnitude for the february mainshock is consistent with the established geometry of the reelfoot fault which all evidence suggests to have been the causative structure for this event we note that the inference of lower magnitudes for the new madrid events implies that site response plays a significant role in controlling seismic hazard at alluvial sites in the central and eastern united states we also note that our results suggest that thrusting may have been the dominant mechanism of faulting associated with the 1811 1812 sequence

ground motion based testing of seismic hazard models in new zealand abstract we develop a testing methodology for the new zealand national probabilistic seismic hazard psh model that builds on the groundwork of previous studies our fundamental approach is to test the full model or in other words the final output of the model ground motion exceedance for a given return period our results show that the psh model is rejected as underpredicting the historical number of exceedances for specific peak ground acceleration pga levels obtained directly from instrumental strong motion data over the last 1 4 decades however when aftershock ground motions are removed from the strong motion data the model is not inconsistent with the observations the implications for the psh model are that the lack of aftershocks in the model led to initial model rejection and that the model may perform better for short decadal time periods if aftershocks are included in the psh model the results are different from those of earlier modified mercalli intensity mmi based studies that suggested the psh model was predicting hazard slightly higher than that of the historical record our new test dataset has the advantage of using observed pga rather than pga inferred from mmi establishment of a protocol for formally testing future versions of the new zealand psh model within a testing center such as those using the collaboratory for the study of earthquake predictability protocol will require consideration of the fact that the tests are limited by the available datasets of strong earthquake shaking

seismic gap hypothesis ten years after the seismic gap hypothesis states that earthquake hazard increases with time since the last large earthquake on certain faults or plate boundaries one of the earliest and clearest applications of the seismic gap theory to earthquake forecasting was by mccann et al 1979 who postulated zones of high medium and low seismic potential around the pacific rim in the 10 years since there have been over 40 large m 7 0 earthquakes enough to test statistically the earlier forecast we also analyze another forecast of long term earthquake risk that by kelleher et al 1973 the hypothesis of increased earthquake potential after a long quiet period can be rejected with a large confidence the data suggest that contrary to these forecasts places of recent earthquake activity have larger than usual seismic hazard whereas the segments of the circum pacific belt with no large earthquakes in recent decades have remained relatively quiet the clustering of earthquake times does not contradict the plate tectonic model which constrains only the long term average slip rate not the regularity of earthquakes

seismic moment assessment of earthquakes in stable continental regions iii new madrid 1811 1812 charleston 1886 and lisbon 1755 summary the sizes of three major or great historical earthquakes are reassessed using the isoseismal area regression tools developed in parts i and ii of this study of stable continental region scr seismicity the earthquakes are 1811 new madrid central united states and its following sequence 1886 charleston coastal south carolina and 1755 lisbon oceanic intraplate off the continental shelf of portugal the analysis confirms the large size of these events and for the first time places constraints on the uncertainty of their seismic moment release because of the exceptionally low seismic wave attenuation of eastern north america ena a separate north american regression of seismic moment on isoseismal area was developed additionally the unknown western extents of the new madrid isoseismal areas were calibrated with the patterns of the m 6 3 6 6 1843 and 1895 earthquakes application of part ii analysis procedures with these corrections yields new madrid size estimates expressed as moment magnitude of m 8 1 0 31 for the 1811 december 16 m 7 8 0 33 for the 1812 january 23 and m 8 0 0 33 for the 1812 february 7 principal events the charleston earthquake s magnitude decreases from m 7 4 to m 7 3 0 26 after compensation for the effect of coastal plain sediments on its inner isoseismals intensity regressions for lisbon are calibrated against the isoseismal pattern of the nearly co located m 7 8 1969 st vincent earthquake which in this case increases the predicted size of lisbon from m 8 4 to m 8 7 0 39 these size estimates are supported by data from independent phenomena extent and severity of liquefaction the maximum distance of induced landslides and for lisbon tsunami wave amplitudes estimated source parameters are controlled by crustal or lithospheric temperature which governs the depth extent of brittle faulting using estimated continental and oceanic geotherms viable fault lengths are 30 80 km for charleston 120 180 km for 1811 new madrid and 180 280 km for lisbon for average displacements of 2 4 m 8 11 m and 10 14 m respectively and for average static stress and strain drops at the estimated seismic moments of this study the 1811 new madrid and the 1755 lisbon events are respectively the largest known scr and oceanic lithosphere earthquakes

earthquake prediction a critical review summary earthquake prediction research has been conducted for over 100 years with no obvious successes claims of breakthroughs have failed to withstand scrutiny extensive searches have failed to find reliable precursors theoretical work suggests that faulting is a non linear process which is highly sensitive to unmeasurably fine details of the state of the earth in a large volume not just in the immediate vicinity of the hypocentre any small earthquake thus has some probability of cascading into a large event reliable issuing of alarms of imminent large earthquakes appears to be effectively impossible key word earthquake prediction

the 2011 magnitude 9 0 tohoku oki earthquake mosaicking the megathrust from seconds to centuries geophysical observations from the 2011 moment magnitude m w 9 0 tohoku oki japan earthquake allow exploration of a rare large event along a subduction megathrust models for this event indicate that the distribution of coseismic fault slip exceeded 50 meters in places sources of high frequency seismic waves delineate the edges of the deepest portions of coseismic slip and do not simply correlate with the locations of peak slip relative to the m w 8 8 2010 maule chile earthquake the tohoku oki earthquake was deficient in high frequency seismic radiation a difference that we attribute to its relatively shallow depth estimates of total fault slip and surface secular strain accumulation on millennial time scales suggest the need to consider the potential for a future large earthquake just south of this event

crustal deformation in western sichuan region and implications for 12 may 2008 ms 8 0 earthquake 1 we have established 65 gps stations and derive a detailed horizontal deformation distribution in western sichuan region in conjunction with previous measurements at additional 90 stations the resulting velocity field shows that strike slip fault system here plays a significant role in adjusting crustal movements in direction and magnitude along the eastern borderland of the tibetan plateau we find xianshuihe fault is essentially creeping in its southeasternmost portion with left lateral slip rate of 8 4 2 8 mm a we report 5 6 mm a left lateral slip rate across anninghe and daliangshan fault mabian fault slips left laterally at the rate of 2 5 1 4 mm a with nearly null fault normal motion deformation across litang and yunongxi fault appear insignificant at present time our results reveal recently ruptured longmenshan fault has both right lateral slip rate and compressional rate close to 2 0 1 0 mm a implying that the longmenshan fault indeed absorbs some northeastern motion of tibetan plateau and likely causes strain accumulation there which leads to the breakout of the 12 may 2008 ms 8 0 earthquake we also find several domains with markedly localized strain rates which are associated with individual structures

mountain building strike parallel motion and mantle anisotropy abstract geophysical and geological evidence indicates that tectonic movements parallel to the strike of orogenic belts and suture zones are the most important mode of displacement during continental collision and oblique subduction several hundred to a few thousand kilometers of displacement may have occurred this way resulting in a pervasive ductile deformation of the lithosphere consequently both crustal and mantle fabrics may reflect these movements and their study using both geological and geophysical methods could supply important clues to lithosphere behavior during mountain building on the basis of kinematic analysis of ductilely deformed crustal rocks in zones of movement a variety of tectonic models have been proposed which differ in 1 1 the timing of strike parallel motions early before or during continental accretion or late after accretion was completed 2 2 the geometric pattern of strike parallel displacement zones low angle or high angle and 3 3 the location of orogen parallel movement zones in outboard terranes on the subducting plate along the suture zone or within the continental hangingwall large scale displacements parallel to mountain belts also suggest that they occurred along lithospheric faults rooted in the upper mantle although few studies have been carried out from this view point thermal structural and petrological data support the conclusion that lithospheric faults involving the upper mantle may be discriminated from crustal faults rooted in some crustal decoupling zone where available data on mantle flow beneath orogenic belts are in agreement with mountain parallel displacements inferred from crustal studies this has an important bearing on the seismic anisotropy pattern which can be predicted in the lithospheric mantle below mountain belts the fast velocity direction which is parallel to the flow direction should therefore be recorded parallel to the strike of the belt

continuous deformation of the tibetan plateau from global positioning system data global positioning system velocities from 553 control points within the tibetan plateau and on its margins show that the present day tectonics in the plateau is best described as deformation of a continuous medium at least when averaged over distances of 100 km deformation occurs throughout the plateau interior by ese wnw extension and slightly slower nne ssw shortening relative to eurasia material within the plateau interior moves roughly eastward with speeds that increase toward the east and then flows southward around the eastern end of the himalaya crustal thickening on the northeast ern and eastern margins of the plateau occurs over a zone 400 km wide and cannot be the result of elastic strain on a single major thrust fault shortening there accommodates much of india s penetration into eurasia a description in terms of movements of rigid blocks with elastic strain associated with slip on faults between them cannot match the velocity field

implications of fault slip rates and earthquake recurrence models to probabilistic seismic hazard estimates abstract increasingly fault slip rates are being used to constrain earthquake recurrence relationships for site specific probabilistic seismic hazard ground motion assessments this paper shows the sensitivity of seismic hazard assessments to variations in recurrence models and parameters that incorporate fault slip rates two models are considered to describe the partitioning of the slip rate or seismic moment rate into various magnitude earthquakes an exponential magnitude distribution and a characteristic earthquake distribution assuming an exponential distribution the activity rate n m 0 is constrained by the upper bound magnitude m u the b value for the region and the fault slip rate s for a given s variations in m u and b value have significant effects on recurrence and computed hazard depending on whether the assumption is made that the seismicity rate is constant or the moment rate is constant there is increasing evidence that the characteristic earthquake model is more appropriate for individual faults than the exponential magnitude distribution based on seismicity data from areas having repeated large earthquakes a generalized recurrence density function is developed and the resulting recurrence relationship requires only m u b value and s a comparison of the recurrence relationships from this model with the historical seismicity and paleoseismicity data on the wasatch and san andreas faults shows a good match the computed hazard based on the characteristic earthquake model differs from that obtained for the exponential model as a function of the fault to site distance and the acceleration level one check on the recurrence models using slip rate is to compare over large regions activity rates based on seismicity data and slip rate data such a comparison in the western transverse ranges shows a reasonable match for both the exponential and characteristic earthquake models in the moderate to large magnitude range

why earthquake hazard maps often fail and what to do about it abstract the 2011 tohoku earthquake is another striking example after the 2008 wenchuan and 2010 haiti earthquakes of highly destructive earthquakes that occurred in areas predicted by earthquake hazard maps to be relatively safe here we examine what went wrong for tohoku and how this failure illustrates limitations of earthquake hazard mapping we use examples from several seismic regions to show that earthquake occurrence is typically more complicated than the models on which hazard maps are based and that the available history of seismicity is almost always too short to reliably establish the spatiotemporal pattern of large earthquake occurrence as a result key aspects of hazard maps often depend on poorly constrained parameters whose values are chosen based on the mapmakers preconceptions when these are incorrect maps do poorly this situation will improve at best slowly owing to our limited understanding of earthquake processes however because hazard mapping has become widely accepted and used to make major decisions we suggest two changes to improve current practices first the uncertainties in hazard map predictions should be assessed and clearly communicated to potential users recognizing the uncertainties would enable users to decide how much credence to place in the maps and make them more useful in formulating cost effective hazard mitigation policies second hazard maps should undergo rigorous and objective testing to compare their predictions to those of null hypotheses including ones based on uniform regional seismicity or hazard such testing which is common and useful in similar fields will show how well maps actually work and hopefully help produce measurable improvements there are likely however limits on how well hazard maps can ever be made because of the intrinsic variability of earthquake processes

the 2004 parkfield earthquake the 1985 prediction and characteristic earthquakes lessons for the future the 1985 prediction of a characteristic magnitude 6 parkfield earth quake was unsuccessful since no significant event occurred in the 95 time window 1985 1993 anywhere near parkfield the magnitude 6 earthquake near parkfield in 2004 failed to satisfy the prediction not just because it was late it also differed in character from the 1985 prediction and was expectable according to a simple null hypothesis furthermore the prediction was too vague in several important respects to meet the accepted definition of an earthquake prediction an event occurring by chance and meeting the general description of the predicted one was reasonably probable the original characteristic earthquake model has failed in comprehensive tests yet it is still widely used modified versions employed in recent official seismic hazard calculations allow for interactions between segments and uncertainties in the parameters with more adjustable parameters the modified versions are harder to falsify the characteristic model as applied at parkfield and elsewhere rests largely on selected data that may be biased because they were taken out of context we discuss implications of the 2004 event for earthquake prediction the characteristic earthquake hypothesis and earthquake occurrence in general

whole earth high resolution earthquake forecasts summary since 1977 we have developed statistical short and long term earthquake forecasts to predict earthquake rate per unit area time and magnitude the forecasts are based on smoothed maps of past seismicity and assume spatial and temporal clustering our new program forecasts earthquakes on a 0 1 grid for a global region 90n 90s latitude we use the pde catalogue that reports many smaller quakes m 5 0 for the long term forecast we test two types of smoothing kernels based on the power law and on the spherical fisher distribution the effective width of these kernels is much larger than the cell size thus the map discretization effects are insignificant we employ adaptive kernel smoothing which improves our forecast both in seismically quiet and active areas our forecasts can be tested within a relatively shorttime period since smaller events occur with greater frequency the forecast efficiency can be measured by likelihood scores expressed as the average probability gains per earthquake compared to spatially or temporally uniform poisson distribution another method uses the error diagram to display the forecasted point density and the point events our short term forecasts also assume temporal clustering described by a variant of omori s law like the long term forecast the short term version is expressed as a rate density in location magnitude and time any forecast with a given lower magnitude threshold can be recalculated using the tapered gutenberg richter relation to larger earthquakes with the maximum corner magnitude determined for appropriate tectonic zones

polygenetic evolution and longitudinal transport within the henderson mylonitic gneiss north carolina southern appalachian piedmont the henderson gneiss of north carolina just east of the brevard shear zone displays two successive stages of mylonitization under different metamorphic conditions analysis of shear sense indicators suggests a southwestward transport direction for both events only the second deformation appears related to the brevard fault the earlier deformation is more pervasive and suggests tangential displacements parallel to the appalachian structural trend along the subhorizontal mylonitic foliation

the nazca south america convergence rate and the recurrence of the great 1960 chilean earthquake the seismic slip rate along the chile trench estimated from the slip in the great 1960 earthquake and the recurrence history of major earthquakes has been interpreted as consistent with the subduction rate of the nazca plate beneath south america the convergence rate estimated from global relative plate motion models depends significantly on closure of the nazca antarctica south america circuit nuvel 1 a new plate motion model which incorporates recently determined spreading rates on the chile rise shows that the average convergence rate over the last three million years is slower than previously estimated if this time averaged convergence rate provides an appropriate upper bound for the seismic slip rate either the characteristic chilean subduction earthquake is smaller than the 1960 event the average recurrence interval is greater than observed in the last 400 years or both these observations bear out the nonuniformity of plate motions on various time scales the variability in characteristic subduction zone earthquake size and the limitations of recurrence time estimates

new seismic gap hypothesis five years after we use earthquake data from 1989 1994 to test a forecast by nishenko based on the seismic gap theory we refer to this forecast as the new seismic gap hypothesis because it is the first global forecast based on the seismic gap hypothesis that considers the recurrence time and characteristic earthquake magnitude specific to each plate boundary segment nishenko s forecasts gave probabilities that each of about 100 zones would be filled by characteristic earthquakes during periods of 5 10 and 20 years beginning on the first day of 1989 only the first of these can be tested now we used three tests based on 1 the total number of zones filled by characteristic earthquakes 2 the likelihood that the observed list of filled zones would result from a process with the probabilities specified in nishenko s hypothesis and 3 the likelihood ratio to that of a poissonian null hypothesis the null hypothesis uses a smoothed version of seismicity since 1977 and assumes a gutenberg richter magnitude distribution we used both the harvard centroid moment tensor and the national oceanic and atmospheric administration preliminary determination of epicenters catalogs in our test we also used several different magnitude cutoffs in our tests because nishenko s forecast did not specify a clear relationship between the characteristic earthquake magnitude and the threshold magnitude for a successful prediction using a strict interpretation that only earthquakes equal to or larger than the characteristic magnitude should be counted both catalogs show only two qualifying earthquakes in the entire area covered by the forecast the predicted number is 9 2 and the discrepancy is too large to result from chance at the 99 confidence level the new seismic gap hypothesis predicts too many characteristic earthquakes for three reasons first forecasts were made for some zones specifically because they had two or more earthquakes in the previous centuries biasing the estimated earthquake rate second open intervals before the first event and after the last event are excluded in calculation of recurrence rate third the forecast assumes that all slip in each zone is released in characteristic earthquakes of the same size while in fact considerable slip is released by both smaller and larger earthquakes the observed size distribution of earthquakes is inconsistent with the characteristic hypothesis instead of a deficit of earthquakes above the characteristic limit earthquake numbers are distributed according to the standard gutenberg richter relation by lowering the magnitude threshold for qualifying earthquakes it is possible to reduce the discrepancy between the observed and predicted number of earthquakes to an acceptable level however for every magnitude threshold we tried the new seismic gap model failed the test on the number of filled zones or the likelihood ratio test or both at least at the 95 confidence level

a more precise chronology of earthquakes produced by the san andreas fault in southern california improved methods of radiocarbon analysis have enabled us to date more precisely the earthquake ruptures of the san andreas fault that are recorded in the sediments at pallett creek previous dates of these events had 95 confidence errors of 50 100 calendar years new error limits are less than 23 calendar years for all but two of the dated events this greater precision is due to larger sample size longer counting time lower background noise levels more precise conversion of radiocarbon ages to calendric dates and better stratigraphic constraints and statistical techniques the new date ranges with one exception fall within the broader ranges estimated previously but our estimate of the average interval between the latest 10 episodes of faulting is now about 132 years variability about the mean interval is much greater than was suspected previously five of the nine intervals are shorter than a century three of the remaining four intervals are about two to three centuries long despite the wide range of these intervals a pattern in the occurrence of large earthquakes at pallett creek is apparent in the new data the past 10 earthquakes occur in four clusters each of which consists of two or three events earthquakes within the clusters are separated by periods of several decades but the clusters are separated by dormant periods of two to three centuries this pattern may reflect important mechanical aspects of the fault s behavior if this pattern continues into the future the current period of dormancy will probably be greater than two centuries this would mean that the section of the fault represented by the pallett creek site is currently in the middle of one of its longer periods of repose between clusters and sections of the fault farther to the southeast are much more likely to produce the next great earthquake in california the greater precision of dates now available for large earthquakes recorded at the pallett creek site enables speculative correlation of events between paleoseismic sites along the southern half of the san andreas fault a history of great earthquakes with overlapping rupture zones along the mojave section of the fault remains one of the more attractive possibilities

earthquake recurrence on the south hayward fault is most consistent with a time dependent renewal process 1 elastic rebound and stress renewal are important components of earthquake forecasting because if large earthquakes can be shown to be periodic then rupture probability is time dependent while renewal models are used in formal forecasts it has not been possible to exclude the alternate view that repeated large earthquakes can happen in rapid succession without requiring time for stress regeneration here a consistency test between time dependent and time independent recurrence distributions is made using a monte carlo method to replicate the paleoseismic series on the south hayward fault time dependent distributions with recurrence interval of 210 years and coefficient of variation of 0 6 reproduce the event series on the south hayward 5 times more often than any exponential distribution a highly significant difference as determined using a two tailed z test for relative proportions therefore large hayward fault earthquakes are quasi periodic and are most consistent with a stress renewal process

tohoku earthquake a surprise abstract we consider three questions related to the 2011 tohoku mega earthquake 1 why was the event size so grossly underestimated by japan s national hazard map 2 how should we evaluate the chances of giant earthquakes in subduction zones 3 what is the repeat time for magnitude 9 earthquakes off the tohoku coast the maximum earthquake size is often guessed from the available history of earthquakes a method known for its significant downward bias we show that historical magnitudes systematically underestimate this maximum size of future events but the discrepancy shrinks with time there are two quantitative methods for estimating the corner magnitude in any region a statistical analysis of the available earthquake record and the moment conservation principle however for individual zones the statistical method is usually ineffective in estimating the maximum magnitude only the lower limit can be evaluated the moment conservation technique which we prefer matches the tectonic deformation rate to that predicted by earthquakes with a truncated or tapered magnitude frequency distribution for subduction zones the seismic or historical record is insufficient to constrain either the maximum or corner magnitude however the moment conservation principle yields consistent estimates for all the subduction zones the corner magnitude is of the order 9 0 9 7 moreover moment conservation indicates that variations in estimated corner magnitude among subduction zones are not statistically significant another moment conservation method applied at a point on a major fault or plate boundary also suggests that magnitude 9 events are required to explain observed displacement rates at least for the tohoku area the global rate of magnitude 9 earthquakes in subduction zones predicted from statistical analysis of seismicity as well as from moment conservation is about five per century five actually happened

toward a consistent model for strain accrual and release for the new madrid seismic zone central united states 1 at the heart of the conundrum of seismogenesis in the new madrid seismic zone is the apparently substantial discrepancy between low strain rate and high recent seismic moment release in this study we revisit the magnitudes of the four principal 1811 1812 earthquakes using intensity values determined from individual assessments from four experts using these values and the grid search method of bakun and wentworth 1997 we estimate magnitudes around 7 0 for all four events values that are significantly lower than previously published magnitude estimates based on macroseismic intensities we further show that the strain rate predicted from postglacial rebound is sufficient to produce a sequence with the moment release of one mmax6 8 every 500 years a rate that is much lower than previous estimates of late holocene moment release however mw6 8 is at the low end of the uncertainty range inferred from analysis of intensities for the largest 1811 1812 event we show that mw6 8 is also a reasonable value for the largest main shock given a plausible rupture scenario one can also construct a range of consistent models that permit a somewhat higher mmax with a longer average recurrence rate it is thus possible to reconcile predicted strain and seismic moment release rates with alternative models one in which 1811 1812 sequences occur every 500 years with the largest events being mmax 6 8 or one in which sequences occur on average less frequently with mmax of 7 0 both models predict that the late holocene rate of activity will continue for the next few to 10 thousand years

long aftershock sequences within continents and implications for earthquake hazard assessment one of the most powerful features of plate tectonics is that the known plate motions give insight into both the locations and average recurrence interval of future large earthquakes on plate boundaries plate tectonics gives no insight however into where and when earthquakes will occur within plates because the interiors of ideal plates should not deform as a result within plate interiors assessments of earthquake hazards rely heavily on the assumption that the locations of small earthquakes shown by the short historical record reflect continuing deformation that will cause future large earthquakes here however we show that many of these recent earthquakes are probably aftershocks of large earthquakes that occurred hundreds of years ago we present a simple model predicting that the length of aftershock sequences varies inversely with the rate at which faults are loaded aftershock sequences within the slowly deforming continents are predicted to be significantly longer than the decade typically observed at rapidly loaded plate boundaries these predictions are in accord with observations so the common practice of treating continental earthquakes as steady state seismicity overestimates the hazard in presently active areas and underestimates it elsewhere

long term perspectives on giant earthquakes and tsunamis at subduction histories of earthquakes and tsunamis inferred from geological evidence aid in anticipating future catastrophes this natural warning system now influences building codes and tsunami planning in the united states canada and japan particularly where geology demonstrates the past occurrence of earthquakes and tsunamis larger than those known from written and instrumental records under favorable circumstances paleoseismology can thus provide long term advisories of unusually large tsunamis the extraordinary indian ocean tsunami of 2004 resulted from a fault rupture more than 1000 km in length that included and dwarfed fault patches that had broken historically during lesser shocks such variation in rupture mode known from written history at a few subduction zones is also characteristic of earthquake histories inferred from geology on the pacific rim

the northern inner piedmont southern appalachians usa kinematics of transpression and sw directed mid crustal flow abstract analysis of new and existing field structural petrologic and geochronologic data in the northern inner piedmont ip southern appalachians provide insight into the processes and kinematics of neoacadian late devonian mississippian crustal flow the ip is characterized by 360 345 ma middle to upper amphibolite facies metamorphism gentle dip of the dominant s2 foliation and curved l2 mineral lineation pattern recognized map scale sheath folds are cored by henderson gneiss or outlined by devonian granitoids and record sw directed axial elongations of 120 486 net neoacadian fault displacement exceeds 400 km with over 200 km associated with sw directed orogen parallel flow map scale sheath folds and mineral lineation patterns suggest that nw and w directed flow rooted to the east was deflected sw by an oblique buttress in the footwall beneath the neoacadian brevard fault zone kinematic vorticity estimates remain in the realm of sub simple shear across the ip and approaches simple shear in the neoacadian brevard fault zone curved ip flow paths provide a model for middle to lower crustal deformation and flow in ancient to active orogens like the himalayas including the possibility that the ip is an exhumed orogenic channel

fault behavior and characteristic earthquakes examples from the wasatch and san andreas fault zones paleoseismological data for the wasatch and san andreas fault zones have led to the formulation of the characteristic earthquake model which postulates that individual faults and fault segments tend to generate essentially same size or characteristic earthquakes having a relatively narrow range of magnitudes near the maximum analysis of scarp derived colluvium in trench exposures across the wasatch fault provides estimates of the timing and displacement associated with individual surface faulting earthquakes at all of the sites studied the displacement per event has been consistently large measured values range from 1 6 to 2 6 m and the average is about 2 m on the basis of variability in the timing of individual events as well as changes in scarp morphology and fault geometry six major segments are recognized along the wasatch fault on the basis of the most likely number of surface faulting events 18 that have occurred on segments of the wasatch fault zone during the past 8000 years an average recurrence interval of 400 666 years with a preferred average of 444 years is calculated for the entire zone geologic data on the distribution of slip associated with prehistoric earthquakes and slip rates along the south central segment of the san andreas fault suggest that the m 8 1857 earthquake is a characteristic earthquake for this segment comparisons of earthquake recurrence relationships on both the wasatch and san andreas faults based on historical seismicity data and geologic data show that a linear constant b value extrapolation of the cumulative recurrence curve from the smaller magnitudes leads to gross underestimates of the frequency of occurrence of the large or characteristic earthquakes only by assuming a low b value in the moderate magnitude range can the seismicity data on small earthquakes be reconciled with geologic data on large earthquakes the characteristic earthquake appears to be a fundamental aspect of the behavior of the wasatch and san andreas faults and may apply to many other faults as well

indonesian earthquake earthquake risk from co seismic stress last year s indonesian earthquake has increased seismic hazard in the region the scale of death and destruction caused by the recent sumatra andaman islands earthquake and its tsunami has raised concerns that another earthquake might be triggered on the contiguous sunda trench subduction zone a new calculation of stress distribution here and on the neighbouring sumatra fault reveals stress build up on both structures severe enough to increase the already high earthquake hazard this finding makes the need for an indian ocean tsunami warning system all the more pressing following the massive loss of life caused by the sumatra andaman earthquake in indonesia and its tsunami the possibility of a triggered earthquake on the contiguous sunda trench subduction zone is a real concern we have calculated the distributions of co seismic stress on this zone as well as on the neighbouring vertical strike slip sumatra fault and find an increase in stress on both structures that significantly boosts the already considerable earthquake hazard posed by them in particular the increased potential for a large subduction zone event in this region with the concomitant risk of another tsunami makes the need for a tsunami warning system in the indian ocean all the more urgent

holocene slip rate of the wasatch fault zone utah from geodetic data earthquake cycle effects 1 gps data define a broad zone of present day deformation in the eastern basin and range province western us using finite element models with elastic upper crust over viscoelastic lower crust upper mantle and incorporating earthquake cycle effects we show that these data are consistent with a model whereby most contemporary fault slip is focused on the wasatch fault zone modeled rates of horizontal extension are 3 0 4 5 mm yr in agreement with holocene geologic data the models are non unique in part because much of the wasatch fault is in the late stages of the earthquake cycle when surface velocity gradients across the fault are low

paleoseismicity of two historically quiescent faults in australia implications for fault behavior in stable continental regions paleoseismic studies of two historically aseismic quaternary faults in australia confirm that cratonic faults in stable continental regions scr typically have a long term behavior characterized by episodes of activity separated by quiescent intervals of at least 10 000 and commonly 100 000 years or more studies of the approximately 30 km long roopena fault in south australia and the approximately 30 km long hyden fault in western australia document multiple quaternary surface faulting events that are unevenly spaced in time the episodic clustering of events on cratonic scr faults may be related to temporal fluctuations of fault zone fluid pore pressures in a volume of strained crust the long term slip rate on cratonic scr faults is extremely low so the geomorphic expression of many cratonic scr faults is subtle and scarps may be difficult to detect because they are poorly preserved both the roopena and hyden faults are in areas of limited or no significant seismicity these and other faults that we have studied indicate that many potentially hazardous scr faults cannot be recognized solely on the basis of instrumental data or historical earthquakes although cratonic scr faults may appear to be nonhazardous because they have been historically aseismic those that are favorably oriented for movement in the current stress field can and have produced unexpected damaging earthquakes paleoseismic studies of modern and prehistoric scr faulting events provide the basis for understanding of the long term behavior of these faults and ultimately contribute to better seismic hazard assessments

shear heat model for gouge free dip slip listric normal faults abstract shear heating due to brittle faulting is important in petroleum geosciences tectonics and seismic studies temporal variation of shear heat in a listric normal fault with a circular arc shaped fault plane is simulated in this work which was not done so far the work is expected to have a far reaching implication in tectonics and petroleum geosciences since listric faults can be closely associated with hydrocarbon reserves e g valdiya and sanwal 2017 for such a fault plane devoid of gouge and any secondary faulting shear heat is proportional to the mass of the hanging wall block the coefficient of friction acting between the hanging wall and the footwall block and radius of the circular arc shear heating intensifies temporally as the hanging wall block slides down and reaches progressively gentler fault dip

source discriminants for near field tsunamis summary we present numerical simulations of tsunami run up in the near field for a data set of 72 models of sources involving both seismic dislocations and landslides by varying one by one the parameters describing the source and the receiving beach we are able to separate their individual influence on the amplitude and distribution of run up which we characterize by forming several dimensionless parameters principally the ratio i 2 of its maximum amplitude to its lateral extent along the beach we find that i 2 remains less than 10 4 for seismic dislocation sources but is greater than this threshold for all physically realistic models of underwater landslides thus it can be used as a discriminant for the nature of the source of a near field tsunami for seismic dislocations we also consider the ratio i 1 of maximum run up to seismic slip on the fault plane and validate numerically the previously suggested rule of thumb that this ratio cannot be much greater than 1 in the case of underwater landslides we show that the distribution of near field run up is primarily controlled by the 2 d wall of water displaced on the ocean surface as an initial condition to the simulation and is practically independent of its extension in the third dimension perpendicular to the beach we apply this approach to nine profiles of tsunami run up obtained experimentally during recent field surveys and show that our method successfully identifies the 1998 papua new guinea tsunami as having been generated by an underwater landslide thus confirming the results of shipboard and hydroacoustic investigations it also strongly suggests a similar mechanism for the generation of the near field aleutian tsunami of 1946 april 1