machine stiffness appropriate for experimental simulation of earthquake processes loading machine stiffness is considered in an attempt to simulate strain accumulation processes prior to failure in earthquakes we impose the similarity condition that the inelastic deformation in a test specimen relative to the loading machine corresponds with that in a spherical seismic region relative to the surrounding earth from this constraint the appropriate ratio between the stiffnesses of machine and specimen is determined to be 1 5 2 3 preliminary experiments were carried out for sandstone samples a qualitative difference between acoustic emission sequences was observed depending on whether the conditions were similar or dissimilar to the earth based on the scaling assumption in the former case a subsidence in acoustic emission activity prior to the main fractures was clearly and systematically observed

evidence of non extensive statistical physics of the lithospheric instability approaching the 2004 sumatran andaman and 2011 honshu mega earthquakes abstract in the present study we demonstrate in the frame of non extensive statistical physics significant deviations of the global seismic activity from a quasi stationary regime before sumatra andaman and honshu mega earthquakes suggesting the existence of a global scale intermediate term non extensive tectonic premonitory of impending mega earthquake processes in the lithosphere using non extensive statistical mechanics we describe the frequency moment the inter event time and distance distributions interpreting sumatran s 2004 and honshu 2011 earthquakes influence on these at a phenomenological level we find that global seismicity is described by non extensive statistical mechanics nesm and that the seismic moment and the earthquake inter event time distributions reflect a sub extensive system where long range interactions are important using the cross over formulation of nesm leads us to the conclusion that the seismic moment distribution of moderate events yields thermodynamic q values of qm 1 6 which seem to be constant for the duration of the sumatra and honshu earthquake preparation while rm which describes the seismic moment distribution of great events varies from 1 to 1 5 as we approach the mega events the inter event time and inter event distance distributions with q 1 5 and qd 0 3 respectively support the conclusion of non extensive spatio temporal duality suggesting that global shallow moderate seismicity with 5 5

temporal change in coda q before the tangshan earthquake of 1976 and the haicheng earthquake of 1975 a new earthquake precursor called coda q is demonstrated for the tangshan earthquake of 1976 and for the haicheng earthquake of 1975 the precursor is based on the measurement of coda decay rate for small local earthquakes in the general area that is preparing for a major earthquake during the 3 year period preceding the tangshan earthquake the coda q was about 3 times lower than it was before or after this period a comparable change also occured at the time of the haicheng earthquake the observed change cannot be due to the change in the source parameters such as the focal depth or the source spectrum the coda q precursor appears to detect the same physical process detected by other precursors such as b value quiescence radon water quality vp vs and animal behavior but has advantages over them in its clearer physical mechanism easier sampling and better defined anomalous region

frequency characteristics of acoustic emission in rocks under uniaxial compression and its relation to the fracturing process to failure acoustic emission generated during the uniaxial compression of brittle rocks were counted after band pass filtering throughout the whole process from application of load to failure the count rate monitored through a low pass window was compared statistically with the monitored through a high passs window the emission rate monitored through a low pas window increases more rapidly than that monitored through a high pass window as rock approaches failure two possible explanations for this effect are 1 generation of larger cracks or coalescence of cracks into larger sizes and 2 the relative attenuation of higher frequency wave components this finding is consistent with past observations i e the relative number of large amplitude events increases i e a decrease in b value as rock approaches failure we suggest that larger cracks tend to generate events with larger amplitudes and containing lower frequency components the frequency characteristics of acoustic emissions are used to characterize the microfracturing processes leading to failure the beginning of a sequence of acoustic emission activity is discussed in relation to the stress strain curve and the onset of dilatancy the present observations may be utilized in understanding structural instability of a region where rockbursts or earthquakes can potentially occur if a sizable microseismicmore population is observed through sensors placed near the fault then a potential exists for predicting major earthquakes less

detection of temperature and sea ice extent changes in the antarctic and southern ocean 1949 96 abstract some global climate models indicate that future global warning from increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases may be greatest in the polar regions over areas where the sea ice cover is reduced the reduction of sea ice area in the models also gives rise to a strong positive feedback to the warming from the increase of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration to date and the results of transient climate models an estimate of the expected change in the antarctic temperatures and sea ice extent can be made the existing data for observed changes in temperatures of the antarctic and southern ocean extending back to approx 1956 and approx 1945 respectively are analyzed along with the data of sea ice cover commencing in 1973 to examine the extent to which the anticipated warming trends and sea ice decrease are being realized in spite of high temporal and spatial variability the data does support small significant trends of temperature increase and sea ice cover decrease compatible in magnitude to those expected as a consequence of atmospheric greenhouse gas increase the seasonal cycle shows a delayed period of autumn winter sea ice growth with a longer period of open water this supports a mechanism for positive feedback between decreasing sea ice cover and increasing temperature

anisotropy beneath hawaii from surface wave particle motion observations observed polarization ellipses for fundamental mode surface waves observed at a digital station in hawaii deviate from those expected for isotropic models of crust and mantle structure for that region the anomalous motion occurs as rotations of the ellipse about all three axes in a cartesian corrdinate system the largest and most consistent deviations occur as anomalous slopes of the ellipse about the horizontal axis transverse to the direction of propagation

climate correlations between greenland and antarctica during the past 100 000 years the ice cores recovered from central greenland by the grip1 2 and gisp23 projects record 22 interstadial warm events during the part of the last glaciation spanning 20 105 kyr before present the ice core from vostok east antarctica records nine interstadials during this period4 5 here we explore links between greenland and antarctic climate during the last glaciation using a high resolution chronology derived by correlating oxygen isotope data for trapped o2 in the gisp2 and vostok cores we find that interstadials occurred in east antarctica whenever those in greenland lasted longer than 2 000 years our results suggest that partial deglaciation and changes in ocean circulation are partly responsible for the climate teleconnection between greenland and antarctica ice older than 115 kyr in the gisp2 core shows rapid variations in the 18o of o2 that have no counterpart in the vostok record the age depth relationship and thus the climate record in this part of the gisp2 core appears to be significantly disturbed

seismic activity on neighbouring faults as a long term precursor to large earthquakes in the san francisco bay area activity in moderate size earthquakes accelerated in the several decades before the large california earthquakes of 1989 1906 and 1868 this type of precursor seems to require the presence of several major faults in close enough proximity to one another that moderate size shocks are selectively triggered on surrounding faults during the latter stages of the cycle of strain buildup to large earthquakes it may be possible to use quantitative aspects of similar seismic precursors to make predictions of large earthquakes on timescales of a few years to one decade

temporal variations in marine chemical concentrations in coastal areas of eastern antarctica and associated climatic causes abstract snow pit and a firn core samples obtained from coastal areas in the eastern lambert basin of eastern antarctica enabled us to investigate the temporal variations in soluble marine ion concentrations and the possible mechanisms influencing their variations the concentrations of seasonal sea salt ions na cl and mg2 at the coastal site lh406 were maximal in the spring and minimal in the summer broad maximal values also occurred in the winter and minimal values occurred in the summer in the interior site zg050 the sea ice extent sie in the indian ocean sector of eastern antarctica followed similar temporal distribution patterns two sulfur compounds so42 and msa experienced seasonal variations similar to those observed for sea salt ions at the lh406 site however distinct variations were reported at the zg050 site the variations in nssso42 levels in the zg050 snow pit that occurred over a 14 year period were positively correlated with variations in sie however this relationship was different from that at the western lambert basin the change in direction of the supplementary prevailing wind during 1994 1995 produced a significant change in the concentrations of marine ions a change in the source region may be the primary cause of this difference

fractals in geology and geophysics the definition of a fractal distribution is that the number of objectsn with a characteristic size greater thanr scales with the relationn r d the frequency size distributions for islands earthquakes fragments ore deposits and oil fields often satisfy this relation fractals were originally introduced by mandelbrot to relate the length of a coastline to the length of the measuring stick this application illustrates a fundamental aspect of fractal distributions scale invariance the requirement of an object to define a scale in photographs of many geological features is one indication of the wide applicability of scale invariance to geological problems scale invariance can lead to fractal clustering geophysical spectra can also be related to fractals these are self affine fractals rather than self similar fractals examples include the earth s topography and geoid

temporal changes in the cumulative piecewise gradient of a variant of the gutenberg richter relationship and the imminence of extreme events abstract it is generally found that the relative frequencies of occurrence of earthquakes of different magnitudes in seismogenic zones have a power law distribution for a long term dataset the overall slope of this logarithmically transformed distribution is usually indicated by a best fit straight line and expressed as a b value this slope is stable and normally lies between 0 8 and 1 2 the actual value depending on the region examined and the threshold selected for data completeness the linearity of the distribution can be used to make statistical inferences about the potential for larger events over the long run and with appropriate reservations may even be extrapolated to magnitudes that are beyond recent experience we suggest the same information can also be viewed over shorter intervals in terms of an empirical piecewise distribution with relative frequencies of occurrence at adjacent magnitude steps controlling the local slope of the distribution an emergence through time of an excess number of lower magnitude earthquakes causes temporal changes to appear in the low end piecewise gradients of this distribution a marked excursion away from an overall uniform trend for the particular zone may be indicative of an imminent larger event on two separate occasions in 1982 and 1997 such temporal variations were seen in the magnitude distributions of sequences of events near tobago west indies and used to anticipate subsequent damaging mainshocks the recognition of temporal departures from overall linearity of the magnitude frequency relation in a suitable dataset may thus provide an evidential element that can contribute to earthquake forecasting this phenomenological approach was used in the analysis of the neic global dataset of earthquakes of magnitude 6 1 and bigger for the period 1973 2003 to explore its wider applicability trends in the piecewise gradients of the global data were interpreted as pointing to an imminent great earthquake perhaps exceeding magnitude 8 5 such an event did occur shortly afterwards in the form of the great sumatran earthquake of 2004 12 26 following that event global magnitude production continued to exhibit sharp imbalances in the lower magnitude bins indicating that another similar event was likely the second sumatran earthquake on 2005 03 28 satisfied that projection since that time a magnitude production imbalance persists in the global dataset suggesting the system could be poised to output an earthquake or earthquakes in the magnitude range 8 6 9 0 or even greater this contribution describes the piecewise gradient approach and examines its application to global earthquake data

effect of an earthquake occurrence on the flow intensity of the subsequent events aftershocks or swarms indicate increase of the flow intensity in the vicinity of the initial earthquakes by normalizing their number according to the dynamic range of the standard frequency magnitude distribution the increase or positive aftereffect property of the initial earthquakes can be compared for different magnitude intervals periods of time or regions after applying accurate formal algorithm of aftershock identification it is possible to study negative aftereffect of the main events nonaftershocks in the catalog negative aftereffect means decrease of the probability of successive events in a time space vicinity of the main event when the aftershocks are over the negative effect is the most important part of the seismic cycle and seismic gaps approach global statistical test give high confidence level for the relative decrease in intensity of the flow of the events withm 7 in the first 20 25 years after the events withm 8 in their 1o vicinities in the total time period under study of approximately 60 years the decrease approximates 32 of the undisturbed intensity of the flow ofm 7 events in the vicinities self similar negative aftereffect was observed 3 7 years after 6 m 7 events it totals approximately 18 of the undisturbed intensity another type of self similarity of seismic regime with respect to the negative aftereffect is the decrease of probabilities of aftershocks with large magnitudes in aftershock sequences when we have adequate dynamic range in the catalog for the study of this property for example for main events withm 7 in the catalog with low cut off limitm 4 the statistical significance of the negative aftereffect is clear however the absolute value of the effect is also rather small about 10 which means that in 90 of the cases the aftershock sequences do not experience lack of energy due to the main shock energy release and follow a standard magnitude distribution for earthquakes in the entire catalog the small values of the negative aftereffect apparently indicate partial stress relase by earthquakes and may explain short recurrence time intervals after major earthquakes observed periodically in different places

bipolar changes in atmospheric circulation during the little ice age annually dated ice cores from siple dome west antarctica and central greenland indicate that meridional atmospheric circulation intensity increased in the polar south pacific and north atlantic at the beginning 1400 a d of the most recent holocene rapid climate change event the little ice age lia as deduced from chemical concentrations at these core sites the lia was characterized by substantial meridional circulation strength variability and this variability persists today despite strong evidence for an end to lia cooling thus increased late 20th century storm variability may be in part a result of the continuation of these climatic fluctuations

the lithosphere of the earth as a nonlinear system with implications for earthquake prediction the lithosphere of the earth can be viewed as a hierarchy of volumes from tectonic plates to grains of rock their relative movement against the forces of friction and cohesion is realized to a large extent through earthquakes the movement is controlled by a wide variety of independent processes concentrated in the thin boundary zones between the volumes a boundary zone has a similar hierarchical structure consisting of volumes separated by boundary zones etc altogether these processes transform the lithosphere into a large nonlinear system featuring instability and deterministic chaos from this background some integral grossly averaged empirical regularities emerge indicating a wide range of similarity collective behavior and the possibility of intermediate term earthquake prediction

spatiotemporal patterns in the energy release of great earthquakes for the past 80 years the energy released in great strike slip and thrust earthquakes has occurred in alternating cycles of 20 to 30 years this pattern suggests that a global transfer mechanism from poloidal to toroidal components of tectonic plate motions is operating on time scales of several decades the increase in seismic activity in california in recent years may be related to an acceleration of global strike slip moment release as regions of shear deformation mature after being reached by stresses that have propagated away from regions of great subduction decoupling earthquakes in the 1960s

classification of earthquake precursors from a fracture mechanics model abstract a new classification of earthquake precursors is proposed based on a fracture mechanics approach which includes the effects of stress and the acceleration of a fracture through an asperity two phases of earthquake warning associated with intermediate term and short term anomalies can be related in a simple manner to two peaks in the stress intensity the first broad peak is further split into two halves associated with precursory strain release strain hardening followed by precursory stress drop strain softening and the second peak responds to the transition from quasi static fracture and slip to dynamic rupture the model predicts a seismic b value anomaly which is in good agreement with laboratory experiment and some aspects of empirical observation of earthquakes in particular evidence is presented of the distinctive short term b value anomaly predicted by the second stress intensity peak and a critical foreshock related b value of 0 5 other earthquake precursors can also be classified into this unifying model and it is suggested that those anomalies which respond to the cumulative production of microcracks e g coda q 1 could produce a more distinctive two stage anomaly after differentiation with respect to time such a two stage anomaly especially if it were observed in several independent earthquake precursors could be a very useful method of deciding when a low level earthquake warning should be changed to a higher level warning

recent increase in south pole snow accumulation this paper summarizes the 37 year history of net accumulation measurements at the geographic south pole obtained by numerous investigators using a variety of techniques these data lead to the conclusion that annual net snow accumulation has increased in the vicinity of south pole station sps since 1955 the records were examined for evidence of a station effect and it is concluded that not all of the observed increase can be attributed to snow drift associated with the presence of the station furthermore the accumulation increase at the south pole appears consistent with increases observed at other locations on the east antarctic plateau and in the peninsula region as well these data suggest that the recent accumulation increase at sps may be regionally extensive over the east antarctic plateau

accumulation variability and mass budgets of the lambert glacier amery ice shelf system east antarctica at high elevations the temporal and spatial variability of the annual accumulation rate and the mass budgets of five sub basins of the lambert glacier amery ice shelf system las east antarctica at high elevations are assessed using a variety of datasets derived from field measurements and modeling the annual temporal variations of the accumulation rate for four cores from the west and east sides of the las are around 34 decadal fluctuation of the accumulation from the dt001 firn core drops to 10 and the 30 year fluctuation to 5 which is assumed to contain the information about the regional and long term trend in accumulation the 15 point running mean of the annual accumulation rate derived from stake measurements can remove most of the high frequency spatial variation so as to better represent the local accumulation model simulations show that the spatial variability of erosion deposition of snow by the wind has a noticeable impact on the surface mass balance at the higher parts of the las mass budget estimates at high elevation sub basins of the las suggest drainage 9 has a negative imbalance of 0 7 0 4 gt a 1 lambert and mellor glaciers have a positive imbalance of 3 9 2 1 and 2 1 2 4 gt a 1 respectively and fisher glacier and drainage 11 are approximately in balance the higher elevation region as a whole has a positive mass imbalance of 4 4 6 3 gt a 1 which is consistent with the most recent radar altimetry assessment that shows an overall thickening over this region

premonitory spreading of seismicity over the faults network in southern california precursor accord 1 we establish a connection between geometry of the faults network in a region and seismicity preceding the strong earthquakes in the intermediate term timescale of years previous studies of observed and computer simulated seismicity demonstrated that strong earthquakes are preceded in that timescale by the rise of seismic activity in a lower magnitude range here we explore a complementary phenomenon spreading of activity over the fault network this phenomenon is depicted by the seismicity pattern accord defined as a simultaneous rise of seismicity in a sufficiently large number of fault zones hence its name pattern accord has been found recently in synthetic seismicity generated by the colliding cascades cc model the present study demonstrates this pattern in observed seismicity of southern california we applied to observations a prediction algorithm based on the pattern accord scaled to the target magnitude 7 5 the pattern accord emerges within a few years before each of the three largest earthquakes in southern california kern county 1952 landers 1992 and hector mine 1999 and at no other time scaled to the target magnitude interval from 6 5 to 7 4 the pattern accord precedes six out of nine earthquakes the duration of alarms in both cases is about 30 of the time considered we repeated prediction with different combinations of adjustable numerical parameters of the algorithm summing up the success and error scores on an error diagram this numerical experiment shows that the prediction results are stable under moderate variations of adjustable parameters the final test would be as always an advance prediction the pattern accord has a simple physical explanation connected with equilibrium of the crustal blocks system under the impact of tectonic driving forces at the same time accord is a manifestation of a broader phenomenon premonitory increase of earthquakes correlation range the latter phenomenon was found for the first time in the cc model although it was hypothesized by one of the authors much earlier

earthquake precursors in japan precursor time and detectability abstract earthquake precursor data amounting to 418 in number accumulated in japan are analyzed most data are obtained under the nation wide earthquake prediction programme the precursor time t versus main shock magnitude m relationship is different for different groups of precursors a linear relation such as log t a bm where a and b are constants seems to hold for precursor disciplines such as land deformation revealed by geodetic survey and tide gauge observation ground tilt observed by a water tube tiltmeter anomalous seismic activity and geomagnetic field change although a similar relationship seems to hold for the disciplines of earth currents radon concentration underground water etc the precursor time is substantially smaller for these disciplines than for the former disciplines the above characteristics of precursor time suggests that precursors closely connected to the dilatancy generation seem to be observed at an earlier stage of seismogenetic activity precursors probably associated with diffusion of underground water into the dilatant region seem to follow for a number of precursor disciplines such as foreshock ground tilt observed by a pendulum tiltmeter resistivity by a variometer and so on no dependence of t on m is found the relationship between m and the logarithmic epicentral distance d measured in kilometers is different from discipline to discipline relying on empirical and theoretical studies of coseismic strain step it turns out that precursors found by geodetic and geomagnetic observations seem to reflect a crastal strain of the order of 10 7 10 6 precursors obtained by a resistivity variometer seem to represent a strain of the order of 10 9 10 8 precursors of other disciplines seem to correspond to a strain of 10 8 10 7 it is clear that precursors can be detected further from the epicenter as the main shock magnitude becomes larger in some favourable cases a precursor can be observed even where the epicentral distance is several times larger than that of the epicentral area

minimum magnitude of completeness in earthquake catalogs examples from alaska the western united states and japan we mapped the minimum magnitude of complete reporting m c for alaska the western united states and for the junec earthquake catalog of japan mc was estimated based on its departure from the linear frequency magnitude relation of the 250 closest earthquakes to grid nodes spaced 10 km apart in all catalogs studied mc was strongly heterogeneous in offshore areas the mc was typically one unit of magnitude higher than onshore on land also mc can vary by one order of magnitude over distance less than 50 km we recommend that seismicity studies that depend on complete sets of small earthquakes should be limited to areas with similar mc or the minimum magnitude for the analysis has to be raised to the highest com mon value of mc we believe that the data quality as reflected by the mc level should be used to define the spatial extent of seismicity studies where mc plays a role the method we use calculates the goodness of fit between a power law fit to the data and the observed frequency magnitude distribution as a function of a lower cutoff of the magnitude data mc is defined as the magnitude at which 90 of the data can be modeled by a power law fit mc in the 1990s is approximately 1 2 0 4 in most parts of california 1 8 0 4 in most of alaska aleutians and panhandle excluded and at a higher level in the junec catalog for japan various sources such as ex plosions and earthquake families beneath volcanoes can lead to distributions that cannot be fit well by power laws for the hokkaido region we demonstrate how neglecting the spatial variability of m c can lead to erroneous assumptions about deviations from self similarity of earthquake scaling

analysis and simulation of chemical explosions in nonspherical cavities in granite 1 we analyze data from 15 decoupled chemical explosions conducted from 1986 to 2002 in alvdalen sweden recorded on regional seismic stations nores hfs and norsar the explosions were conducted in three approximately rectangular granite chambers at a depth of 100 m in chambers with volumes of 200 300 and 1000 m3 and yields ranging from 500 to 10 000 kg the smallest explosions in the largest chamber are fully decoupled while the other explosions are partially coupled overdriven by up to a factor of 25 the data show that decoupling remains fairly constant for overdrive up to about a factor of 10 then decreases rapidly at higher yields several 1000 kg explosions were conducted in the two smaller chambers these events did not appear in seismic bulletins however we were able to identify the waveform and to estimate the origin time using a waveform correlation procedure for the more recent explosions near field data were recorded on pressure gauges in the chamber and adjacent tunnel and on velocity gauges in boreholes at several locations near the chamber we have modeled these data using three dimensional finite difference calculations the calculations show enhanced signals in the direction along the small axis of the chamber and reduced signals near the long end of the tunnel although we do not have free field data from all directions the data for the available locations are consistent with these calculations

a reinterpretation of the precursory seismic b value anomaly from fracture mechanics summary a new model is presented which can explain the major temporal fluctuations in seismic b value in terms of the underlying physical processes of time varying applied stress and crack growth under conditions of constant strain rate the model predicts two minima in the b value separated by a temporary maximum of inflexion point a corollary being that a single broad maximum would be expected in scattering attenuation these fluctuations in b value are consistent with reported intermediate term and short term earthquake precursors separated by a period of seismic quiescence we present preliminary results from controlled laboratory experiments and report recent field observations both of which are consistent with the predicted form and in particular exhibit the distinctive second short term anomaly which reaches a value bc 0 5 during the critical phase

premonitory raise of the earthquakes correlation range lesser antilles abstract we apply to the observed seismicity of lesser antilles a short term earthquake precursor which has been recently found by analysis of synthetic seismicity the latter was generated by a lattice type colliding cascades model of interacting elements precursor named roc depicted premonitory increase of the earthquakes correlation range here this precursor is used as a second approximation to the intermediate term prediction as a first approximation we use the alarms determined in the previous publication by the algorithm seismic reversal sr it depicts premonitory reversal of territorial distribution of seismicity we consider combined performance of both algorithms in prediction of earthquakes with magnitude 5 5 or above four such earthquakes occurred in the territory considered during 1984 1998 the alarms occupy 0 5 of the total time space three alarms happened to be correct two alarms were false and one earthquake was missed by prediction the alarms are very stable to variation of adjustable parameters of prediction method in view of this stability such a prediction is unusually good even for retrospective analysis we present this prediction method as a hypothesis to be tested on advance prediction

detection and analysis of near surface explosions on the kola peninsula seismic and infrasonic observations of signals from a sequence of near surface explosions at a site on the kola peninsula have been analyzed norsar s automatic network processing of these events shows a significant scatter in the location estimates and to improve the automatic classification of the events we have performed full waveform cross correlation on the data set although the signals from the different events share many characteristics the waveforms do not exhibit a ripple for ripple correspondence and cross correlation does not result in the classic delta function indicative of repeating signals using recordings from the arces seismic array 250 km w of the events we find that a correlation detector on a single channel or three component station would not be able to detect subsequent events from this source without an unacceptable false alarm rate however performing the correlation on each channel of the full arces array and stacking the resulting traces generates a correlation detection statistic with a suppressed background level which is exceeded by many times its standard deviation on only very few occasions performing f k analysis on the individual correlation coefficient traces and rejecting detections indicating a non zero slowness vector results in a detection list with essentially no false alarms applying the algorithm to 8 years of continuous arces data identified over 350 events which we confidently assign to this sequence the large event population provides additional confidence in relative travel time estimates and this together with the occurrence of many events between 2002 and 2004 when a temporary network was deployed in the region reduces the variability in location estimates the best seismic location estimate incorporating phase information for many hundreds of events is consistent with backazimuth measurements for infrasound arrivals at several stations at regional distances at lycksele 800 km sw of the events as well as at arces infrasound is detected for most of the events in the summer and for few in the winter at apatity some 230 km s of the estimated source location infrasound is detected for most events as a first step to providing a ground truth database for this useful source of infrasound we provide the times of explosions for over 50 events spanning 1 year

stress corrosion cracking of quartz a note on the influence of chemical environment abstract tensile mode i stress corrosion growth of cracks on the a plane of quartz in a direction normal to z has been studied in de ionized water in 2n hcl and in 2n naoh solutions at 20 c the double torsion testing method was used to obtain crack velocity v stress intensity factor ki curves the stress corrosion index n where v kin was 19 3 for 2n hcl 12 8 for deionized water and 9 5 for 2n naoh the degree of influence of reagent chemistry on crack velocity was most marked at low ki values at 0 5 kic 3 orders of magnitude increase in crack velocity results from substituting 2n naoh for 2n hcl as the corrosive medium but decreased monotonically on raising ki so that close to kic there was no clearly discernible influence on crack growth rates ca 10 3 m s 1 these observations are explained in terms of a model of crack propagation in which at low ki values the chemistry of the bulk fluid environment controls the corrosion reaction the rate of crack growth is enhanced by increasing environmental oh concentration at high ki or velocity however the chemical composition of the quartz surface may control crack propagation rates through its influence on the chemistry of the crack tip fluid as the ph of natural pore fluids is likely to vary widely in different geological environments these results should be noted when invoking stress corrosion to explain geophysical phenomena

grouping and migration of surface faulting and variations in slip rates on faults in the great basin province abstract nonuniformity of the occurrence of large slip events producing surface ruptures on seismogenic faults and variations in slip rate probably characterize seismogenic faulting in the great basin province western united states examples include the grouping of faulting events along the lost river fault idaho changes in tilt rates of the east range and cortez mountains nevada extension of slip along a fault on the northwest flank of the humboldt range nevada and migration or shifting of slip back and forth from one fault to another along subparallel range front faults in dixie valley nevada

seismic quiescence and asperities in the tonga kermadec arc highly significant temporal and spatial seismicity rate changes were found along the tongaskermadec plate boundary the standard deviate z test was used to compare systematically the rates in different periods and different volumes and to test for uniqueness of anomalies found the noaa hypocenter data file showed a pronounced decrease in the number of small magnitude earthquakes reported after 1969 at the same time as such a reporting decline exists in the worldwide data therefore only earthquakes with mb 4 9 were studied a search for quiescence before recent mainshocks yielded two uniquely significant precursory anomalies one missed mainshock and one false alarm quiescence started 63 months before the january 1976 m 8 0 kermadec and 25 months before the june 1977 tonga m 7 2 earthquakes the december 1975 m 7 5 shock was not preceded by a seismicity rate change the seismic gaps in the tonga kermadec arc with sufficient seismicity for analysis 17 22 and 31 34 show constant rates up to the present therefore on the basis of the quiescence hypothesis earthquakes are not forecast for these segments the stress drops of 380 interface events were estimated using the mb ms method the average was uniform along the island arc with the exception of two segments with average of less than half the normal values these segments coincided with the two largest recent interface ruptures however in the northern tonga the was low before the 1975 rupture whereas in the kermadec the 1976 aftershocks showed low asperities could not be identified on the basis of high stress drops a systematic study of the seismicity rate as a function of space defined large variations along the arc the areas of highest and lowest seismicity rate correlate with the northern end of the trench and with the louisville ridge intersection respectively however other large rate contrasts exists between arc segments without obvious tectonic differences this implies that seismicity doughnut patterns do not reliably define precursors one segment of outstandingly high seismicity rate 30 31 s is identified as a major asperity because it contains a large number of m 6 events and a large number of recent mainshock aftershock sequences and because it stopped the great 1976 rupture we propose that the only other segment of high seismicity rate near 20 5 s also represents a major asperity

primary results of glaciological studies along an 1100 km transect from zhongshan station to dome a east antarctic ice sheet the chinese national antarctic research expedition ghinare carried out three traverses from zhongshan station to dome a princess elizabeth land and inaccessible area east antarctic ice sheet during the 1996 97 to 1998 99 antarctic field seasons the expeditions are part of the chinese international trans antarctic scientific expedition program in this project glaciological investigations of mass balance ice temperature ice flow stratigraphy in snow pits and snow firn ice cores as well as the glaciochemical study of surface snow and shallow ice cores have been carried out in the 1998 99 field season chinare extended the traverse route to 1128 km inland from zhongshan station the density profiles show that firnification over princess elizabeth land and inaccessible area 290 1100 km along the route is fairly slow and the accumulation rate recovered from snow pits along the initial 460 km of the route is 4 6 21 cm 46 210 kg m 2a 1 water equivalent the initial 460 km of the route can be divided into four sections based on the differences of accumulation rate this pattern approximately coincides with the study on the lambert glacier basin lgb by australian scientists during the past 50 years the trends of both air temperature and accumulation rate show a slight increase in this area in contrast to the west side of the lgb data on surface accumulation rates and their spatial and temporal variability over ice drainage areas such as the lgb are essential for precise mass balance calculation of the whole ice sheet and are important for driving ice sheet models and testing atmospheric models

microcracks in rocks a review abstract in the past decade the number of studies about microcracks in rocks has rapidly increased this review of recent work concentrates on microcracks in rock as separate entities emphasizing microcrack morphogenesis kinematics dynamics population statistics and observational techniques cracks are produced when the local stress exceeds the local strength the local stress may be augmented by twin lamellae interactions kink bands and deformation lamellae stress concentrations at grain boundary contacts and around intracrystalline cavities local strength may be reduced along cleavage planes along grain boundaries and along any internal surface as a result of corrosion by chemically active fluids dislocations appear not to be a significant factor for crack nucleation below about 500 c in silicates spatial and temporal changes in temperature can also induce microcracking as a result of differential thermal expansion between grains with different thermoelastic moduli and thermal conductivities the amount of quartz in the rock has a significant effect on thermally induced microcracks because of its large and variable thermal expansivity the application of hydrostatic pressure between 100 and 200 mpa effectively closes most cracks but the closure may not be uniform if crack wall asperities exist hydrostatic pressure appears to stabilize cracks and make crack growth more difficult the number and average size of mechanically induced microcracks is greater in rock deformed at higher pressures the application of a deviatoric stress field on the boundaries of a rock mass results on a microscopic scale in a very complex stress system which greatly affects nucleation and propagation paths the relative amount of intragranular and intergranular cracking appears to depend upon mineralogy rock type and stress state the vast majority of stress induced microcracks in rocks appear to be extensional statistically they are predominantly oriented within 30 of the macroscopic maximum stress direction crack densities increase as macroscopic deviatoric stress increases above a threshold level crack size distributions may be either lognormal or exponential fracture in rock under compressive boundary loads is a result of the coalescence of many microcracks not the growth of a single crack some crack configurations are more favorable for coalescence than others as deviatoric stress increases and rock failure is approached the microcrack population changes spatially from random to locally intense zones of cracking away from the fault the crack density dies off rapidly to the background level a few grains away under lesser deviatoric stresses slow subcritical microcrack growth can occur as a result of stress aided corrosion at the crack tip the rate governing mechanism may be either the chemical reaction rate or the rate at which water can get to the crack tip important details still remain to be worked out

dynamics of the magnitude frequency relation for foreshocks abstract time variations of the b value in the magnitude frequency law for strong foreshocks within days and hours before a mainshock were studied analysis of the world earthquake catalog 1964 1980 m 4 shows that b drops to half during a few hours before mainshocks an increase of b value with increase of the mainshock magnitude has not been detected

whole earth high resolution earthquake forecasts summary since 1977 we have developed statistical short and long term earthquake forecasts to predict earthquake rate per unit area time and magnitude the forecasts are based on smoothed maps of past seismicity and assume spatial and temporal clustering our new program forecasts earthquakes on a 0 1 grid for a global region 90n 90s latitude we use the pde catalogue that reports many smaller quakes m 5 0 for the long term forecast we test two types of smoothing kernels based on the power law and on the spherical fisher distribution the effective width of these kernels is much larger than the cell size thus the map discretization effects are insignificant we employ adaptive kernel smoothing which improves our forecast both in seismically quiet and active areas our forecasts can be tested within a relatively shorttime period since smaller events occur with greater frequency the forecast efficiency can be measured by likelihood scores expressed as the average probability gains per earthquake compared to spatially or temporally uniform poisson distribution another method uses the error diagram to display the forecasted point density and the point events our short term forecasts also assume temporal clustering described by a variant of omori s law like the long term forecast the short term version is expressed as a rate density in location magnitude and time any forecast with a given lower magnitude threshold can be recalculated using the tapered gutenberg richter relation to larger earthquakes with the maximum corner magnitude determined for appropriate tectonic zones

global seismicity of 2003 centroid moment tensor solutions for 1087 earthquakes abstract centroid moment tensor cmt solutions are presented for 1087 earthquakes that occurred during 2003 the solutions are obtained using the method of dziewonski et al dziewonski a m chou t a woodward j h 1981 determination of earthquake source parameters from waveform data for studies of global and regional seismicity j geophys res 86 2825 2852 and applying corrections for aspherical earth structure as represented by the whole mantle shear velocity model sh8 u4l8 of dziewonski and woodward dziewonski a m woodward r l 1992 acoustic imaging at the planetary scale in emert h harjes h p eds acoustical imaging vol 19 plenum press new york pp 785 797 the model of inelastic attenuation of durek and ekstrom durek j j ekstrom g 1996 a radial model of inelasticity consistent with long period surface wave attenuation bull seism soc am 86 144 158 is used to predict the decay of the waveforms the focal mechanisms of the largest or otherwise significant earthquakes of 2003 are reviewed

fracture toughness and subcritical crack growth during high temperature tensile deformation of westerly granite and black gabbro abstract the double torsion testing method has been used to determine catastrophic and subcritical crack propagation parameters for pre cracked specimens of westerly granite and black gabbro under a number of environmental conditions the critical stress intensity factor for catastrophic crack propagation fracture toughness of granite and gabbro has been measured at temperatures from 20 to 400 c in a vacuum at 20 c the fracture toughness of westerly granite was 1 79 0 02 mpa m 1 2 and for two blocks of black gabbro it was 3 03 0 08 mpa m 1 2 and 2 71 0 15 mpa m 1 2 respectively these values are very close to those reported by other investigators for tests conducted in air of ambient humidity at room temperature for both rocks fracture toughness at first increased slightly and then decreased steadily on raising the temperature above ambient conditions this behaviour is explained in terms of the density and distribution of thermally induced microcracks as determined by quantitative optical microscopy subcritical crack growth behaviour has been studied at temperatures up to 300 c and under water vapour at pressures of 0 6 to 15 kpa both the load relaxation and incremental constant displacement rate forms of the double torsion testing method were utilised to generate stress intensity factor crack velocity diagrams crack growth was measured over the velocity range 5 10 3 to 10 7 m s 1 increasing both temperature and water vapour pressure resulted in substantially higher crack growth rates the overall effect of raising the temperature over the range studied here 20 300 c was to increase the crack growth rate in granite and gabbro by 5 and 7 orders of magnitude respectively at constant stress intensity factor and vapour pressure of water for both rocks the slopes of stress intensity factor crack velocity curves were sensitive to changes in both temperature and water vapour pressure at low values of the latter parameter slopes fell substantially on raising the water vapour pressure but were relatively insensitive to changes in temperature at these higher pressures no subcritical crack growth limit was encountered estimates of the uncertainty in our experimental data are given from the results of multiple load relaxation experiments on westerly granite specimens we estimate the uncertainty in position of stress intensity factor crack velocity curves along the stress intensity axis to be c 10 of the fracture toughness and the uncertainty in slope of such curves to be c 12 problems associated with the extrapolation of our experimental data to regions of higher effective confining pressure in the earth s crust are discussed

testing earthquake prediction algorithms statistically significant advance prediction of the largest earthquakes in the circum pacific 1992 1997 abstract algorithms m8 and msc i e the mendocino scenario were used in a real time intermediate term research prediction of the strongest earthquakes in the circum pacific seismic belt predictions are made by m8 first then the areas of alarm are reduced by msc at the cost that some earthquakes are missed in the second approximation of prediction in 1992 1997 five earthquakes of magnitude 8 and above occurred in the test area all of them were predicted by m8 and msc identified correctly the locations of four of them the space time volume of the alarms is 36 and 18 correspondingly when estimated with a normalized product measure of empirical distribution of epicenters and uniform time the statistical significance of the achieved results is beyond 99 both for m8 and msc for magnitude 7 5 10 out of 19 earthquakes were predicted by m8 in 40 and five were predicted by m8 msc in 13 of the total volume considered this implies a significance level of 81 for m8 and 92 for m8 msc the lower significance levels might result from a global change in seismic regime in 1993 1996 when the rate of the largest events has doubled and all of them become exclusively normal or reversed faults the predictions are fully reproducible the algorithms m8 and msc in complete formal definitions were published before we started our experiment keilis borok v i kossobokov v g 1990 premonitory activation of seismic flow algorithm m8 phys earth and planet inter 61 73 83 kossobokov v g keilis borok v i smith s w 1990 localization of intermediate term earthquake prediction j geophys res 95 19763 19772 healy j h kossobokov v g dewey j w 1992 a test to evaluate the earthquake prediction algorithm m8 u s geol surv ofr 92 401 m8 is available from the iaspei software library healy j h keilis borok v i lee w h k eds 1997 algorithms for earthquake statistics and prediction vol 6 iaspei software library

basal melting and freezing under the amery ice shelf east antarctica the basal melting and freezing rates under the amery ice shelf east antarctica are evaluated and their spatial distributions mapped ice velocity surface elevation and accumulation rate datasets are employed in the analysis along with a column averaged ice density model our analysis shows that the total area of basal melting is 34 700 km 2 with a total annual melt of 62 5 9 3 gt and an average melting rate of 1 8 0 3 m a 1 basal freezing mainly occurs in the northwestern part of the ice shelf over a total area of 26 100 km 2 and with a maximum freezing rate of 2 4 0 4 m a 1 the total marine ice that accretes to the ice shelf base is estimated to be 16 2 2 4 gt a 1 using a redefined grounding line and geometry of the amery ice shelf we estimate the net melt over the ice shelf base is about 46 4 6 9 gt a 1 which is higher than previous modeling and oceanographic estimates net basal melting accounts for about half of the total ice shelf mass loss with the rest being from iceberg discharge our basal melting and freezing distribution map provides a scientific basis for quantitative analysis of ice ocean interaction at the ice shelf ocean interface

global pattern of earthquakes and seismic energy distributions insights for the mechanisms of plate tectonics article i nfo in this paper we analyse the distributions of number of events n and seismic energy e on the earth s surface and along its radius as obtained from the global declustered catalogue of large independent events m 7 0 dissipating about 95 of the earth s elastic budget the latitude distribution of the seismic event density is almost symmetric with respect to the equator and the seismic energy flux distribution is bimodal both have their medians near the equator so that they are equally distributed in the two hemispheres this symmetry with respect to the equator sug gests that the earth s rotational dynamics contributes to modulate the long term tectonic processes the distributions of number and energy of earthquakes versus depth are not uniform as well 76 of the total earth quakes dissipates about 60 of the total energy in the first 50 km only 6 of events dissipates about 20 of the total amount of energy in a narrow depth interval at the lower boundary of the upper mantle 550 680 km therefore only the remaining 20 of energy is released along most of the depth extent of subduction zones 50 550 km since the energetic release along slabs is a minor fraction of the total seismic budget the role of the slab pull appears as ancillary if any in driving plate tectonics moreover the concentration of seismic release in the not yet subducted lithosphere suggests that the force moving the plates acts on the uppermost lithosphere and contemporaneously all over the earth s outer shell again supporting a rotational tidal modulation

patterns of seismic release in the southern california region southern california experiences earthquakes on the san andreas system of vertical right lateral predominantly strike slip faults and on a second system of faults that includes thrusts oblique slip left lateral and other faults pattern recognition and cluster analysis are used to analyze the catalog of earthquakes with magnitudes 5 5 from 1915 to 1994 we use pattern recognition to find a suite of traits that would characterize each of these two systems and distinguish them from each other both pattern recognition and cluster analysis show that epochs of seismic release occur in which one or the other system is the predominant form of earthquake activity for the past 2 decades the second system has been the active one small changes in the direction of plate movements could account for this phenomenon seismic release on the san andreas system is preceded by episodes of activity in the great basin or in the gulf of california presumably these episodes would represent extension in the former region and spreading and slip on transform faults in the latter

evidence for precursory changes in the frequency magnitude b value summary a clear case has been established for a significant increase in the slope of the frequency magnitude relation for periods of up to six years before a number of earthquakes in new zealand and california in a region of about 200 km diameter in central new zealand the b value increased from near unity to more than 2 0 at the end of 1968 and remained abnormally high until the beginning of 1975 an earthquake of magnitude 6 0 followed in 1977 january within 50 km of the location which had registered the highest b value the anomaly was detected in contour maps of b values windowed in space and time then resolved more precisely in time using the cusum technique it was statistically significant at a level higher than 99 99 per cent compared with the average rate of moment release in this region there was a deficit of 1 3 x 10 nm during the anomalous period which is equivalent to an earthquake of magnitude 6 08 this phenomenon of a high b value has been found before all shallow new zealand earthquakes of magnitude 6 0 or more since 1965 wherever the seismicity rate and detection threshold were adequate to resolve it further the only statistically significant occurrences of high b value were those which were followed by large earthquakes two of magnitude 6 8 and 6 0 and a swarm of equivalent magnitude 5 3 the phenomenon has also been found before the san fernando and coalinga earthquakes in california both of which were thrust events but it is not apparent before two large californian earthquakes with strike slip mechanisms observations of high b value are consistent with reported instances of quiescence in background seismicity in fact what has been interpreted as quiescence may probably be more accurately described as a localized high b value the duration of the anomaly is not a simple function of magnitude different strain rates in the regions examined may account for this the available data suggest that careful monitoring of the b value may provide a tool for medium term earthquake prediction although perhaps not in all tectonic environments

a study on the time dependent microfracturing and strength of oshima granite abstract uniaxial compressive loading experiments where axial strain rate or dilatant volumetric strain rate was kept constant were carried out using a servo controlled hydraulic testing machine the rock studied was oshima granite in order to investigate the effect of the strain rate on the strength a theory based on the assumption of redistribution of the pre existing microcracks due to subcritical crack growth was examined results expected from the theory were well borne out by the observations the strength was expressed by power functions of both axial strain rate and dilatant strain rate the stress corrosion index of oshima granite appeared to be 31 3 which agreed well with the values reported previously when the axial strain rate was held constant the acoustic emission rate increased exponentially and the b value the exponent in the frequency magnitude relation of the acoustic emissions decreased with increasing applied stress when the dilatant volumetric strain rate was kept constant the acoustic emission rate and the b value remained constant and independent of the stress increase furthermore when the dilatant strain rate was held constant at a higher value the b value was constant at a lower level as the decrease in the b value indicates the higher dilatant strain rate the b value is one of the most useful key parameters in the fracture predictions

global scale analysis of seismic activity prior to 2004 sumatra andaman mega earthquake abstract following our experience in intermediate term monitoring of seismicity before large earthquakes worldwide and in some regions we apply a similar approach to the analysis of seismicity on global scale several decades before the december 26 2004 sumatra andaman mega earthquake the earth lithosphere is being considered as a single whole representing the ultimate level of the complex earth s hierarchy the study brings up the following questions are there any anomalies of the global seismicity behaviour observed in advance of the mega earthquake do these anomalies correspond to the global scale seismic patterns similar to those detected on the regional scale before great major and strong events in other words does the earth lithosphere considered as a single whole show up an approach of the mega earthquake in the way typical for events on the smaller levels of hierarchy the results of our investigation favour the positive answer to the questions specifically we found that during the decade before the sumatra andaman mega earthquake the earth lithosphere reveals at least in intermediate term scale classical symptoms of instability which can be depicted by known precursory seismic patterns these are i transformation of frequency magnitude distribution ii change in the rate of seismic activity and iii depth redistribution of activity moreover changes of dependencies between magnitudes of different types are detected at the same time the observed global scale patterns of collective behaviour of seismicity may indicate the state of criticality of the earth lithosphere before the sumatra andaman mega earthquake

the b value as an earthquake precursor a systematic study of b values in new zealand has shown that within the vicinity of forthcoming large earthquakes there is initially an increase in b and then a return to normal the caracas and san fernando earthquakes show the same phenomenon which is related to that of seismic gaps

ice velocity from static gps observations along the transect from zhongshan station to dome a east antarctica dome a the highest point on the antarctic ice sheet at just over 4000 m a s l is located near the centre of east antarctica chinese national antarctic research expeditions have studied ice sheet dynamics and mass balance along a traverse route from zhongshan station to dome a during the austral summers from 1996 97 to 2004 05 nineteen gps sites were occupied on at least two occasions at approximately 50 km intervals the purpose of the surveys was to provide accurate ice dynamics data a dual frequency gps receiver was used and each site was occupied for 1 12 hours gps data were processed using gamit globk software and horizontal accuracies were within 0 1 m repeat gps measurements provided ice velocities the horizontal surface ice velocities increase from the summit of the ice sheet to the coast in the dome a area the velocities are 10m a 1 in the plateau area velocities range from 8 to 24 m a 1 and reach about 98 2 m a 1 at a site lt980 near the coast the flow directions are roughly perpendicular to the ice sheet surface elevation contours primarily toward the lambert glacier basin

earthquake magnitude recent research and current trends abstract the magnitude recommendations adopted by the iaspei assembly at zurich in 1967 have had both a stabilizing and a stimulating effect on magnitude determinations and related research from 1967 onwards one magnitude research paper has appeared on the average almost every week thus making this parameter the most studied one in seismology new facilities and more accurate methods e g concerning instrumental equipment and interpretation techniques have made it possible to improve earlier achievements the application of magnitude scales has been extended in all respects e g with regard to epicentral distances focal depths wave types and wave periods magnitude frequency relations have become the most investigated equations within seismology observationally as well as theoretically they have wide applications e g for estimating the maximum magnitudes of future earthquakes an important item in earthquake prediction the magnitudes provide significant information on other source parameters such as wave energy fault length seismic moment relations between different types of magnitude yield valuable information on source properties for instance relations between magnitudes based on body and surface waves are used for efficient discrimination between earthquakes and underground explosions it is our purpose to review the magnitude development in the post zurich period 1967 1980 partly for geologists tectonophysicists and engineers who need an overview partly for seismologists who need an introduction to an overwhelmingly comprehensive literature

relative stress variations as determined by b values from earthquakes in circum pacific subduction zones abstract assuming a relation of b to stress state the possibility of globe wide stress variation and transmission was investigated the noaa earthquake data file served to determine the temporal change in b of log n a bm from 1963 to 1975 periods of six to eight years are observed in the b values stress pattern for most circum pacific areas south america tonga kermadec new hebrides kamchatka and eastern aleutians in the kurils fore and aftershock sequences of large earthquakes seem to mask any characteristic global pattern that might exist these sequences exhibit low b values high stress through the time of foreshocks and early stages of aftershocks followed by rapid increase in b values decrease in stress use of a worldwide earthquake data file clearly yields less resolution of the temporal b variation than the use of local network studies published by other authors incidental to the study 1124 earthquakes of the noaa data file yield the ms mb relations ms 1 16mb 0 835 for 4 5 mb 6 and log10ms 0 1432mb 0 0629 formb 6 with correlative coefficients of 0 994 and 0 992 respectively

time series analysis of earthquake sequences by means of information recognizer abstract three seismic sequences of several thousand earthquakes each are analyzed by means of a tunable information recognizer known as wlzip these sequences are different both in the geographical coverage and the time span including earthquakes of magnitude larger than 8 0 the main variable under scrutiny here is the time interval between consecutive events two parameters mutability and interval dilation are defined for each sequence which relate to the information contained in it in this way it is possible to characterize different regimes in the seismic activity for instance mutability increases before large earthquakes and decreases sharply immediately after each of these events on the other hand interval dilation reaches a clear maximum several months before major earthquakes while it decreases to its lowest possible value after such earthquakes during the aftershock regime extensions of the application of this new method to other problems in seismicity are mentioned

seismic quiescence precursor to the 1983 kaoiki ms 6 6 hawaii earthquake a remarkable seismicity rate decrease of 65 per cent occurred in most of the aftershock volume 2 4 yr before the 1983 kaoiki ms 6 6 main shock if the background seismicity rate 1978 to mid 1981 is extrapolated to the time of the main shock more than 300 earthquakes of ml 1 8 are missing because of the quiescence subvolumes measuring 5 5 km on a side and located within the aftershock zone showed seismicity rate decreases ranging from 0 to 90 per cent the volume of no change had dimensions of approximately 10 3 km it contained the main shock hypocenter and was located near the center of the 10 km radius aftershock area the seismic quiescence in different subvolumes of the aftershock volume surrounding this central nonquiet zone varied somewhat in starting time amount of rate decrease and statistical significance according to the standard deviate z test the reported rate decrease is the most pronounced example of precursory quiescence defined to date the seismicity pattern before the 1983 kaoiki shock conformed to the quiescence hypothesis proposed on the basis of the precursors to the 1975 hawaii main shock no quiescence was observed within the immediate surrounding of the hypocenter while strong rate decreases occurred in most of the rest of the main shock source volume it is thus hypothesized that major asperities which contain high stress levels and from which main ruptures can emanate may be recognizable as volumes of constant seismicity rate within surrounding volumes of quiescence provided that decreases of seismicity rate as a function of time can be defined quantitatively

the accommodation of large strains in the upper lithosphere of the earth and other solids by self similar fault systems the geometrical origin of b value plate tectonics has provided a method of visualizing the geometry of the deformation of the earth s lithosphere on a large scale the description is so concise that for many purposes it provides an explanation of geological processes that overshadows the need to understand the driving processes the mechanics of the zones between the plates are less well understood particularly in continental regions where large areas are subject to deformation both continuous and discontinuous models have been tried but both have obvious drawbacks

temporal variations in seismicity during quasi static and dynamic rock failure abstract a comprehensive model is presented which can explain temporal fluctuations in seismic b values in the period leading to mechanical failure in terms of the underlying physical processes of time varying applied stress and stress corrosion enhanced crack growth under conditions of constant strain rate the form of the b value anomaly in the period leading to failure depends on the form of the stress time relationship for the case where dynamic failure occurs at peak stress after a period of strain hardening the model predicts a single cusp like b value anomaly reaching a critically low value of 0 5 at failure for the physically most realistic case where dynamic failure is preceded by a period of precursory strain energy release during strain softening the model predicts two minima in the b value separated by a temporary maximum or inflection point these fluctuations in the b value are consistent with reported intermediate term and short term earthquake precursors separated by a period of seismic quiescence for the case of quasi static cataclastic flow the b value mirrors the stress and never falls to the critical value because there is no critical rupture new results from a series of controlled laboratory experiments are presented in which microseismic event rates and b value were monitored contemporaneously with stress time data for all variants of the stress time relationship recent field observations of temporal changes in seismicity rates and b value preceding major earthquakes are also reported both data sets exhibit b value anomalies which are consistent with the model predictions

forecast model for great earthquakes at the nankai trough subduction zone an earthquake instability model is formulated for recurring great earthquakes at the nankai trough subduction zone in southwest japan the model is quasistatic two dimensional and has a displacement and velocity dependent constitutive law applied at the fault plane a constant rate of fault slip at depth represents forcing due to relative motion of the philippine sea and eurasian plates the model simulates fault slip and stress for all parts of repeated earthquake cycles including post inter pre and coseismic stages calculated ground uplift is in agreement with most of the main features of elevation changes observed before and after the m 8 1 1946 nankaido earthquake in model simulations accelerating fault slip has two time scales the first time scale is several years long and is interpreted as an intermediate term precursor the second time scale is a few days long and is interpreted as a short term precursor accelerating fault slip on both time scales causes anomalous elevation changes of the ground surface over the fault plane of 100 mm or less within 50 km of the fault trace

seismic characteristics of cavity decoupled explosions in limestone an analysis of soviet high explosive test data during the summer of 1960 soviet scientists conducted a series of high explosive cavity decoupling tests in a mine in kirghizia these decoupled tests were carried out in a variety of mined cavities in limestone including spherical cavities with diameters ranging from 3 5 to 10 m as well as nonspherical cavities with volumes of about 25 m3 the experiments of this test series consisted of 10 tamped and 12 decoupled explosions having yields of 0 1 1 0 and 6 0 t and seismic data were recorded at locations in the mine over a distance range extending from about 10 to 250 m from the sources these data provide valuable new insight into the dependence of decoupling effectiveness on variables such as cavity volume cavity shape and charge emplacement geometry in particular analyses indicate that chemical explosions at a depth of 290 m in limestone are essentially fully decoupled in spherical cavities with scaled cavity radii larger than about 27 m kt and that the low frequency decoupling effectiveness under such conditions is approximately independent of cavity shape for roughly cylindrical cavities with length to width ratios of as much as 6 12 these results suggest that the possibility of cavity decoupling in nonspherical cavities in hard rock media will have to be carefully evaluated in establishing the seismic verification regime for the comprehensive test ban treaty

evidence for a global seismic moment release sequence temporal clustering of the larger earthquakes foreshock mainshock aftershock followed by relative quiescence stress shadow are characteristic of seismic cycles along plate boundaries a global seismic moment release history based on a little more than 100 years of instrumental earthquake data in an extended version of the catalog of pacheco and sykes 1992 illustrates similar behavior for earth as a whole although the largest earthquakes have occurred in the circum pacific region an analysis of moment release in the hemisphere antipodal to the pacific plate shows a very similar pattern monte carlo simulations confirm that the global temporal clustering of great shallow earthquakes during 1952 1964 at m 9 0 is highly significant 4 random probability as is the clustering of the events of m 8 6 0 2 random probability during 1950 1965 we have extended the pacheco and sykes 1992 catalog from 1989 through 2001 using harvard moment centroid data immediately after the 1950 1965 cluster significant quiescence at and above m 8 4 begins and continues until 2001 0 5 random probability in alternative catalogs derived by correcting for possible random errors in magnitude estimates in the extended pacheco sykes catalog the clustering of m 9 persists at a significant level these observations indicate that for great earthquakes earth behaves as a coherent seismotectonic system a very large scale mechanism for global earthquake triggering and or stress transfer is implied there are several candidates but so far only viscoelastic relaxation has been modeled on a global scale

can earth s rotation and tidal despinning drive plate tectonics abstract we re evaluate the possibility that earth s rotation contributes to plate tectonics on the basis of the following observations 1 plates move along a westerly polarized flow that forms an angle relative to the equator close to the revolution plane of the moon 2 plate boundaries are asymmetric being their geographic polarity the first order controlling parameter unlike recent analysis the slab dip is confirmed to be steeper along w directed subduction zones 3 the global seismicity depends on latitude and correlates with the decadal oscillations of the excess length of day lod 4 the earth s deceleration supplies energy to plate tectonics comparable to the computed budget dissipated by the deformation processes 5 the gutenberg richter law supports that the whole lithosphere is a self organized system in critical state i e a force is acting contemporaneously on all the plates and distributes the energy over the whole lithospheric shell a condition that can be satisfied by a force acting at the astronomical scale assuming an ultra low viscosity layer in the upper asthenosphere the horizontal component of the tidal oscillation and torque would be able to slowly shift the lithosphere relative to the mantle

triggering of the 1999 mw 7 1 hector mine earthquake by aftershocks of the 1992 mw 7 3 landers earthquake 1 there is strong observational evidence that the 1999 mw 7 1 hector mine earthquake in the mojave desert california was triggered by the nearby 1992 mw 7 3 landers earthquake many authors have proposed that the landers earthquake directly stressed the hector mine fault our model of the landers aftershock sequence however suggests there is an 85 chance that the hector mine hypocenter was actually triggered by a chain of smaller earthquakes that was initiated by the landers main shock we perform our model simulations using the monte carlo method based on the gutenberg richter relationship omori s law bath s law and assumptions that all earthquakes including aftershocks are capable of producing aftershocks and that aftershocks produce their own aftershocks at the same rate that other earthquakes do in general our simulations show that if it has been more than several days since an m 7 main shock most new aftershocks will be the result of secondary triggering these secondary aftershocks are not physically constrained to occur where the original main shock increased stress this may explain the significant fraction of aftershocks that have been found to occur in main shock stress shadows in static coulomb stress triggering studies

global creepex distribution and its relation to earthquake source geometry and tectonic origin summary the ms mb ratio conventionally used for the discrimination of earthquakes and underground nuclear explosions has been studied for a pure earthquake catalogue in an attempt to classify earthquakes into two categories one related to extremely lowfrequency events of creep and the other to relatively high frequency explosions ms and mb measured at 20 s and 1 s respectively are considered as estimates of source spectra at two separate points thus allowing one to compare large samples of earthquakes from the spectral point of view creepex or the deviation of ms mfc points from the orthogonal regression of ms on mb is by definition a parameter independent of the size of seismic events it has been estimated from neic magnitudes and is studied in relation to parameters of central moment tensor solutions of the harvard group for this purpose the parameters of central moment tensors have been factorized to make classes of equivalence of events with the same dip and rake and arbitrary strike and size the resulting triangle representation of source mechanisms has been used to correct the global distribution of creepex for the type of source mechanism dip slip events have consistently lower creepex than strike slip ones however the global distribution of creepex either corrected or uncorrected for source mechanism has a clear tectonic pattern negative values in most of the subduction zones and positive ones in mid ocean ridges the dependence of creepex on focal depth is negligible according to empirical data for events shallower than 40 km limitation of the sample by considering only events in this depth range does not diminish considerably the amount of data and does not change the tectonic pattern of the creepex

a century of accumulation and temperature changes in dronning maud land antarctica a mass balance program was initiated in the vestfjella heimefrontfjella area of western dronning maud land during the austral summer of 1988 1989 as a part of this program spatial and temporal variations in snow accumulation and temperature stable isotopes are measured using shallow firn cores in this paper we present surface accumulation data and discuss the climatic implications of the stable isotope records from two shallow firn cores one 30 m deep core obtained about 200 km from the coast at 700 m asl 73 36 s 12 26 w covers the period 1932 1991 the other core was drilled at about 500 km from the coast at 2900 m asl 75 00 s 2 00 e and covers the period 1865 1991 the recent accumulation increase that has been reported from several areas of the antarctic continent is not present in either of these records instead our coastal record suggests a significant decrease in accumulation with the strongest trend from about 1975 there is a positive trend in the oxygen isotope signal in both cores which in the coastal core corresponds to a temperature increase of about 1 8 c since the early 1930s and in the high altitude core to about 0 8 c since 1865 however it is likely that part of this increase in 18o is due to a change of moisture source

theory of time dependent rupture in the earth at a velocity x which is a well defined function of k this propagation is stable and quasi static and is referred to as subcritical crack growth we shall use the terms stable quasistatic and subcritical to mean propagation at velocities much less than the sonic velocities of the medium this behavior results from stress induced corrosion at the crack tip the principal corrodent for the present application being h20 this behavior has been firmly established in the laboratory for mode i tensile cracks in a wide variety of materials ineluding silicates and silicate glasses see cholz 1968a 1972a martin 1972 wiederhorn and bolz 1970 atkinson 1979 lawn and wilshaw 1975 knott 1973 the form of the relationship between k and x does not vary significantly with the material only the parameters in the law vary as an example we show in figure 1 data on subcritical crack growth in quartz after atkinson 1979 the empirical relationship is found to take the form

premonitory transformation of steel fracturing and seismicity abstract transformation of microfracturing preceding the break up of steel and rock samples is similar to transformation of earthquakes flow prior to strong earthquakes in southern california the break up in a sample is preceded by transition from formation of new microcracks to coalescence or expansion of existing cracks this is reflected in the relation between the length and the number of the cracks similar transformation of seismicity precedes southern california earthquakes with magnitude m 6 6 1935 1994 specifically magnitude frequency relation bends downward for magnitudes from 3 to 4 5 and upward for magnitudes from about 4 5 to 6 in the usual notations the b value becomes larger in the first interval and smaller in the second one this transformation is accompanied by the increased share of aftershocks in the earthquakes flow in such a way the approach of a strong earthquake is reflected in both major traits of seismicity magnitude frequency relation and earthquake clustering imprecision of the earthquake catalog and reasonable variations in its analysis do not change our conclusions this phenomenon explains so far qualitatively a wide set of premonitory seismicity patterns we give it a formal definition allowing to test whether it takes place in other seismic regions