relocation and assessment of seismicity in the iran region summary more than 2000 instrumentally recorded earthquakes occurring in the iran region during the period 1918 2004 have been relocated and reassessed with special attention to focal depth using an advanced technique for 1 d earthquake location a careful review of starting depths association of teleseismic depth phases and the effects of reading errors on these phases are made and when necessary waveforms have been examined to better constrain ehb focal depths uncertainties in ehb epicentres are on the order of 10 15 km in the iran region owing to the earth s lateral heterogeneity and uneven station distribution uncertainties of reviewed ehb focal depth estimates are on the order of 10 km as compared to about 4 km for long period p and sh body waveform inversions nevertheless these ehb depth estimates are sufficiently accurate to resolve robust differences in focal depth distribution throughout the iran region and within their errors show patterns that are in agreement with the smaller number of earthquakes whose depths have been confirmed by body wave modelling or local seismic networks the importance of this result is that future earthquakes with apparently anomalous depths can easily be identified and checked if necessary most earthquakes in the iranian continental lithosphere occur in the upper crust with the crustal shortening produced by continental collision accommodated entirely by thickening and distributed deformation in the zagros mountains nearly all earthquakes are confined to the upper crust depths 20 km and there is no evidence for a seismically active subducted slab dipping ne beneath central iran by contrast in southeastern iran where the arabian seafloor is being subducted beneath the makran coast low level earthquake activity occurs in the upper crust as well as to depths of at least 150 km within a northward dipping subducting slab near the oman line a region transitional between the zagros and the makran seismicity extends to depths of up to 30 45 km in the crust consistent with low angle thrusting of arabian basement beneath central iran in north central iran along the alborz mountain belt seismic activity occurs primarily in the upper crust but with some infrequent events in the lower crust particularly in the western part of the belt the talesh where the south caspian basin underthrusts nw iran earthquakes that occur in a band across the central caspian following the apscheron balkhan sill between azerbaijan and turkmenistan have depths in the range 30 100 km deepening northwards these are thought to be connected with either incipient or remnant northeast subduction of the south caspian basin basement beneath the east west trending apscheron balkhan sill curiously in this region of genuine mantle seismicity there is no evidence for earthquakes shallower than 30 km

region specific key seismic parameters for earthquakes in northern iran strong motion accelerograms recorded within northern iran are used to examine the propagation characteristics of shear wave including geometric spreading behavior q value j 0 and horizontal to vertical h v ratio these region specific key seismic parameters are estimated from 259 three component records of 22 earth quakes with magnitude ranging from m 4 9 to m 7 4 in northern iran the geometric spreading follows a trilinear behavior with a strong postcritical reflection from the moho the first and second hinges of the trilinear behavior are at 75 and 150 km respectively the associated q value based on the vertical component is q 87 f 1 46 j0 value for vertical and horizontal components are 0 03 and 0 05 respec tively because of lack of station specific site information the h v ratio is considered to be a rough estimation of generic site amplification the obtained region specific parameters are used to estimate the average stress drop based on three stochastic modeling approaches stochastic point source modeling suggests a brune stress drop of 125 bars whereas stochastic finite fault modeling based on static and dynamic corner frequency approaches suggests a stress drop of 68 bars

stochastic simulation of strong motion records from the 2012 ahar varzaghan dual earthquakes northwest of iran here the generalized inversion of s wave amplitude spectra is employed for deriving the site response and s wave attenuation quality factor in the northwest region of iran a total of 279 strong motion accelerograms recorded at distances below 200 km from 41 earthquakes with moment magnitudes ranging from m w 3 8 to 6 5 are used to determine the region speci c attenuation model the site responses have been determined for all 54 stations individually the bulk of strong motion data i e 184 records comes from the 2012 ahar varzaghan dual earthquakes in northwest iran and their aftershocks also the modified finite fault method which is able to model nonuniform stress distribution on the fault plane is employed to investigate the coseismic stress parameter for the first and second ahar varzaghan dual earthquakes by minimizing the difference between the synthesized and observed pseudospectral accelerations for 5 damping results denote a concentration of stress drops on the northwestern part of the first event s fault and on the central and eastern part of the second fault stochastic simulations using the calibrated stress distribution have been performed on a regular grid covering the study area for both rock and soil site conditions in total 651 points the results show that the maximum of peak ground accelerations pgas during the ahar varzaghan dual earthquakes for the rock site condition reached 557 cm s s and the largest peak ground velocities pgvs were estimated around 76 cm s in general comparisons between simulated data and empirical ground motion prediction equations gmpes show that the stochastic predictions pgas and pgvs are higher than those predicted by the empirical gmpes for distances less than 30 km and are smaller for distances more than 30 km the simulated data are also consistent with the modi ed mercalli intensity observations and show reasonable agreement this can be considered as another validation of the method

combination of precise leveling and insar data to constrain source parameters of the mw 6 5 26 december 2003 bam earthquake we used new precise leveling data acquired 40 days after the bam earthquake in combination with radar interferometry observations from both ascending and descending orbits to investigate static deformation associated with the 2003 bam earthquake we invert this geodetic data set to gain insight into the fault geometry and slip distribution of the rupture the best fitting dislocation model is a steeply east dipping right lateral strike slip fault that has a size of 11 by 8 km and strikes n2 w we find that such smooth geometry fits available geodetic data better than previously proposed models for this earthquake our distributed slip model indicates a maximum strike slip of 3 m occurring about 3 to 5 km deep the slip magnitude and depth of faulting taper to the north where the fault approaches the bam city inclusion of crustal layering increases the amount of maximum slip inferred at depth by about 4

importance of small earthquakes for stress transfers and earthquake triggering 1 we estimate the relative importance of small and large earthquakes for static stress changes and for earthquake triggering assuming that earthquakes are triggered by static stress changes and that earthquakes are located on a fractal network of dimension d this model predicts that both the number of events triggered by an earthquake of magnitude m and the stress change induced by this earthquake at the location of other earthquakes increase with m as similar to 10 dm 2 the stronger the spatial clustering the larger the influence of small earthquakes on stress changes at the location of a future event as well as earthquake triggering if earthquake magnitudes follow the gutenberg richter law with b d 2 small earthquakes collectively dominate stress transfer and earthquake triggering because their greater frequency overcomes their smaller individual triggering potential using a southern california catalog we observe that the rate of seismicity triggered by an earthquake of magnitude m increases with m as 10 alpha m where alpha 1 05 0 05 we also find that the magnitude distribution of triggered earthquakes is independent of the triggering earthquake s magnitude m when alpha approximate to b small earthquakes are roughly as important to earthquake triggering as larger ones we evaluate the fractal correlation dimension d of hypocenters using two relocated catalogs for southern california the value of d measured for distances 0 1 r 5 km is d 1 54 for the shearer et al catalog and d 1 73 for the hauksson et al catalog the value of d reflects both the structure of the fault network and the nature of earthquake interactions by considering only those earthquake pairs with interevent times larger than 1000 days we can largely remove the effects of short term clustering then d approximate to 2 close to the value d 2 alpha 2 1 predicted by assuming that earthquake triggering is due to static stress the value d approximate to 2b implies that small earthquakes are as important as larger ones for stress transfers between earthquakes and that considering stress changes induced by small earthquakes should improve models of earthquake interactions

stress sensitivity of fault seismicity a comparison between limited offset oblique and major strike slip faults we present a new three dimensional inventory of the southern san francisco bay area faults and use it to calculate stress applied principally by the 1989 m 7 1 loma prieta earthquake and to compare fault seismicity rates before and after 1989 the major high angle right lateral faults exhibit a different response to the stress change than do minor oblique right lateral thrust faults seismicity on oblique slip faults in the southern santa clara valley thrust belt increased where the faults were unclamped the strong dependence of seismicity change on normal stress change implies a high coefficient of static friction in contrast we observe that faults with significant offset 50 100 km behave differently microseismicity on the hayward fault diminished where right lateral shear stress was reduced and where it was unclamped by the loma prieta earthquake we observe a similar response on the san andreas fault zone in southern california after the landers earthquake sequence additionally the offshore san gregorio fault shows a seismicity rate increase where right lateral oblique shear stress was increased by the loma prieta earthquake despite also being clamped by it these responses are consistent with either a low coefficient of static friction or high pore fluid pressures within the fault zones we can explain the different behavior of the two styles of faults if those with large cumulative offset become impermeable through gouge buildup coseismically pressurized pore fluids could be trapped and negate imposed normal stress changes whereas in more limited offset faults fluids could rapidly escape the difference in behavior between minor and major faults may explain why frictional failure criteria that apply intermediate coefficients of static friction can be effective in describing the broad distributions of aftershocks that follow large earthquakes since many of these events occur both inside and outside major fault zones

effects of imparted coulomb stress changes in the seismicity and cluster of the december 2017 hojedk se iran triplet the hojedk area in the southeastern iran experienced three earthquakes during 12 days in december 2017 these events occurred in proximity to a region that has experienced several moderate and large events in the past in this paper the role of coulomb stress changes in occurrence of the hojedk cluster was investigated and also the produced stress changes due to these events on the surrounding and optimally oriented faults was calculated previous earthquakes events in the golbaf sirch region the shahdad slip and the dahuiyeh zarand earthquake imparted positive stress changes on the fault planes of the hojedk earthquakes especially on the ruptured plane of the first main shock the hojedk first main shock triggered the second one by imparting maximum stress changes of about 11 7 mpa on the fault plane of this event and these two events brought the third main shock to failure by producing more than 6 0 mpa stress changes on its ruptured plane among the major active faults in the surrounding area the middle part of the nayband fault northern part of the golbaf sirch fault and southern part of the kuhbanan fault received positive stress changes and southen parts of the ravar and all parts of the chatrud faults received negative stress changes due to the hojedk earthquakes furthermore our results for correlation between coulomb stress changes and seismicity distribution showed that following the dahuiyeh zarand earthquake the majority of the seismicity located on the positive stress area and coulomb stress changes have a controlling role on the spatial distribution of seismicity even after a decade the occurrence of the hojedk first main shock affects the spatial distribution of aftershocks until the occurrence of the next main hocks by triggering the next one the stress patterns change in the area and seismicity follows from the stress patterns of the last event

tectonic implications and seismicity triggering during the 2008 baluchistan pakistan earthquake sequence abstract a damaging and widely felt moderate earthquake mw 6 4 hit the rural mountainous region of southwestern pakistan on october 28 2008 the main shock was followed by another earthquake of identical magnitude mw 6 4 on the next day the spatial distribution of aftershocks and focal mechanism revealed a nw se striking rupture with right lateral strike slip motion which is sympathetic to the nnw sse striking active mapped urghargai fault the occurrence of strike slip earthquakes suggests that along with the thrust faults strike slip faults too are present beneath the fold and thrust belt of sulaiman kirthar ranges and accommodates some of the relative motion of the indian and eurasian plates to assess the characteristics of this sequence the statistical parameters like aftershocks temporal decay b value of g r relationship partitioning of radiated seismic energy due to aftershocks and spatial fractal dimension d value have been examined the b value is estimated as 1 03 0 42 and suggests the tectonic genesis of the sequence and crustal heterogeneity within rock mass the low p value of 0 89 0 07 implies slow decay of aftershocks activity which is probably an evidence for low surface heat flow a value of spatial fractal dimension of 2 08 0 02 indicates random spatial distribution and that the source is a two dimensional plane filled up by fractures the static coseismic coulomb stress changes due to the foreshock mw 5 3 were found to increase stress by more than 0 04 bars at the hypocenter of the main shock thus promoting the failure the cumulative coseismic coulomb stress changes due to the foreshock and mainshocks suggest that most of the aftershocks occurred in the region of increased coulomb stress and to the se to the mainshock rupture

new empirical relationships among magnitude rupture length rupture width rupture area and surface displacement source parameters for historical earthquakes worldwide are compiled to develop a series of empirical relationships among moment magnitude m surface rupture length subsurface rupture length downdip rupture width rupture area and maximum and average displacement per event the resulting data base is a significant update of previous compilations and includes the additional source parameters of seismic moment moment magnitude subsurface rupture length downdip rupture width and average surface displacement each source parameter is classified as reliable or unreliable based on our evaluation of the accuracy of individual values only the reliable source parameters are used in the final analyses in comparing source parameters we note the following trends 1 generally the length of rupture at the surface is equal to 75 of the subsurface rupture length however the ratio of surface rupture length to subsurface rupture length increases with magnitude 2 the average surface displacement per event is about one half the maximum surface displacement per event and 3 the average subsurface displacement on the fault plane is less than the maximum surface displacement but more than the average surface displacement thus for most earthquakes in this data base slip on the fault plane at seismogenic depths is manifested by similar displacements at the surface log linear regressions between earthquake magnitude and surface rupture length subsurface rupture length and rupture area are especially well correlated showing standard deviations of 0 25 to 0 35 magnitude units most relationships are not statistically different at a 95 significance level as a function of the style of faulting thus we consider the regressions for all slip types to be appropriate for most applications regressions between magnitude and displacement magnitude and rupture width and between displacement and rupture length are less well correlated and have larger standard deviation than regressions between magnitude and length or area the large number of data points in most of these regressions and their statistical stability suggest that they are unlikely to change significantly in response to additional data separating the data according to extensional and compressional tectonic environments neither provides statistically different results nor improves the statistical significance of the regressions regressions for cases in which earthquake magnitude is either the independent or the dependent parameter can be used to estimate maximum earthquake magnitudes both for surface faults and for subsurface seismic sources such as blind faults and to estimate the expected surface displacement along a fault for a given size earthquake

surface displacements and source parameters of the 2003 bam iran earthquake from envisat advanced synthetic aperture radar imagery 1 the mw 6 6 26 december 2003 bam iran earthquake was one of the first earthquakes for which envisat advanced synthetic aperture radar asar data were available using interferograms and azimuth offsets from ascending and descending tracks we construct a three dimensional displacement field of the deformation due to the earthquake elastic dislocation modeling shows that the observed deformation pattern cannot be explained by slip on a single planar fault which significantly underestimates eastward and upward motions se of bam we find that the deformation pattern observed can be best explained by slip on two subparallel faults eighty five percent of moment release occurred on a previously unknown strike slip fault running into the center of bam with peak slip of over 2 m occurring at a depth of 5 km the remainder occurred as a combination of strike slip and thrusting motion on a southward extension of the previously mapped bam fault 5 km to the east

static coulomb stress changes on faults caused by the 2008 mw 7 9 wenchuan china earthquake abstract the 12 may 2008 mw 7 9 wenchuan earthquake has changed the regional tectonic stress field significantly it is important to know how such a change affects the tectonic loading processes of the faults and therefore the seismic potential of the region utilizing the slip distribution of the wenchuan earthquake as the driving source we compute the changes of coulomb failure stress cfs on the neighborhood faults assuming a friction coefficient of 0 4 our results show that the cfss have increased on average 1 6 104 and 1 8 104 pa at the sw and ne ends of the longmen shan 2 6 104 pa at the western segment of the qinling southern frontal 2 0 104 pa at the northernmost part of the longriba 1 4 104 pa at the southernmost part of the xianshuihe 1 3 104 pa at the southeast end of the east kunlun 9 0 103 pa at the southernmost part of the minjiang 2 9 103 pa at the baiyu and 3 5 103 pa at the longxian baoji faults recurring times of these faults are advanced about 39 and 230 years for the sw and ne segments of the longmen shan 5 5 years toward the east end of the east kunlun and 1 6 years for the se segments of the xianshuihe faults the quake also relaxed the cfs significantly on most part of the minjiang southwest segment of the longriba northwest segment of the xianshuihe southeast segment of the yushu maqu north part of the xiaojinhe daliangshan and anninghe faults with the cfs reductions ranging on average of 1 8 104 2 5 104 7 1 103 2 4 103 1 0 103 1 0 103 and 1 6 103 pa respectively recurring times of these faults are delayed up to 185 years for the south segment of the minjiang up to 18 years for the northeast of the longriba up to 9 8 years for the west qinling northern frontal and up to 2 7 years for the northwest segment of the xianshuihe faults respectively we test sensitivity of the changes of cfs to variations of apparent fiction coefficient and find that the senses of cfs change are almost invariant with except at the minjiang longriba and qinling southern frontal faults where large normal stresses on faults induced by the wenchuan earthquake could play an important role in manifesting cfs change when is large the cfs changes vary slowly along seismogenic depth on most of the receiver faults

coseismic fault related folding during the south golbaf earthquake of november 20 1989 in southeast iran the south golbaf earthquake of november 20 1989 m s 5 7 m b 5 6 i vii in southeast iran was associated with coseismic surface faulting and folding surface faults 11 km west dipping and 8 km east dipping long with oblique reverse mechanisms developed on both sides of a small holocene playa apparently repeated coseismic fault related folding was responsible for the holocene 20 tilting of the playa deposits above the active fault tip at the ground surface this study provided the first evidence of earthquake folding of holocene playa deposits in iran

seismicity alert probabilities at parkfield california revisited for a decade the u s geological survey has used the parkfield earthquake prediction experiment scenario document to estimate the probability that earthquakes observed on the san andreas fault near parkfield will turn out to be foreshocks followed by the expected magnitude 6 mainshocks during this time we have learned much about the seismogenic process at parkfield about the long term probability of the parkfield mainshock and about the estimation of these types of probabilities the probabilities for potential foreshocks at parkfield are reexamined and revised in light of these advances as part of this process we have confirmed both the rate of foreshocks before strike slip earthquakes in the san andreas physiographic province and the uniform distribution of foreshocks with magnitude proposed by earlier studies compared to the earlier assessment these new estimates of the long term probability of the parkfield mainshock are lower our estimate of the rate of background seismicity is higher and we find that the assumption that foreshocks at parkfield occur in a unique way is not statistically significant at the 95 confidence level while the exact numbers vary depending on the assumptions that are made the new alert probabilities are lower than previously estimated considering the various assumptions and the statistical uncertainties in the input parameters we also compute a plausible range for the probabilities the range is large partly due to the extra knowledge that exists for the parkfield segment making us question the usefulness of these numbers

secondary aftershocks and their importance for aftershock forecasting the potential locations of aftershocks which can be large and damaging are often forecast by calculating where the mainshock increased stress we find however that the mainshock induced stress field is often rapidly altered by aftershock induced stresses we find that the percentage of aftershocks that are secondary aftershocks or aftershocks triggered by previous aftershocks increases with time after the mainshock if we only consider aftershock sequences in which all aftershocks are smaller than the mainshock the percentage of aftershocks that are secondary also increases with mainshock magnitude using the california earthquake catalog and monte carlo trials we estimate that on average more than 50 of aftershocks produced 8 or more days after m 5 mainshocks and more than 50 of all aftershocks produced by m 7 mainshocks that have aftershock sequences lasting at least 15 days are triggered by previous aftershocks these results suggest that previous aftershock times and locations may be important predictors for new aftershocks we find that for four large aftershock sequences in california an updated forecast method using previous aftershock data and neglecting mainshock induced stress changes can outperform forecasts made by calculating the static coulomb stress change induced solely by the mainshock manuscript received 20 november 2002

fault plane solutions for the 1984 morgan hill california earthquake sequence evidence for the state of stress on the calaveras fault fault plane solutions for 946 aftershocks of the april 24 1984 morgan hill california m6 2 earthquake reveal a pattern of complex faulting within a 10 km wide zone surrounding the calaveras fault the fault plane solutions fall into three groups strike slip mechanisms located along the calaveras fault with north northwest striking dextral slip planes nearly parallel to the fault strike slip mechanisms located northeast of the calaveras fault with north striking dextral slip planes and reverse mechanisms located southwest of the calaveras fault with northeast or southwest dipping slip planes the average azimuth of p axes for aftershocks located on the calaveras fault is n10 1 e in contrast the average azimuths of p axes for aftershocks northeast and southwest of the calaveras fault are n49 7 e and n37 3 e respectively by assuming that the earthquakes occur on preexisting cracks in response to a uniformly oriented regional stress field we are able to infer from the observed average slip directions an orientation for 1 the axis of maximum horizontal compression 63 80 from the local strike of the calaveras fault such a high angle orientation of 1 is incompatible with the classical andersonian model of strike slip faulting but is consistent with an alternate model in which a weak calaveras fault is driven by plate motion slightly convergent with respect to the san andreas fault system in central california if this inferred high angle uniform stress field is combined with the changes in the static stress field calculated with elastic dislocation theory for the 1984 morgan hill main shock the resulting stress field predicts most of the observed spatial pattern of the aftershocks and their fault plane solutions the orientations of the inferred aftershock slip planes are generally consstent with the fracture orientations predicted by the coulomb failure criterion areas with predicted increases in the coulomb failure function of only a few tenths of a megapascal correspond to areas of intense aftershock activity the invariance of focal mechanisms in the vicinity of the south end of the main shock rupture before and after the main shock suggests that the magnitude of compressive stress in this area is at least 10 mpa in addition to explaining a preponderance of the seismic observations of the aftershock sequence the presence of a predominantly fault normal compressive regional stress field accounts for the contemporary development of folds reverse faults and topographic relief observed throughout the central california coast ranges

influence of static stress changes on earthquake locations in southern california earthquakes induce changes in static stress on neighbouring faults that may delay hasten or even trigger subsequent earthquakes1 10 the length of time over which such effects persist has a bearing on the potential contribution of stress analyses to earthquake hazard assessment but is presently unknown here we use an elastic half space model11 to estimate the static stress changes generated by damaging magnitude m 5 earthquakes in southern california over the past 26 years and to investigate the influence of these changes on subsequent earthquake activity we find that in the 1 5 year period following a m 5 earthquake any subsequent nearby m 5 earthquake almost always ruptures a fault that is loaded towards failure by the first earthquake after this period damaging earthquakes are equally likely to rupture loaded and relaxed faults our results suggest that there is a short period of time following a damaging earthquake in southern california in which simple coulomb failure stress models could be used to identify regions of increased seismic hazard

response of the san andreas fault to the 1983 coalinga nunez earthquakes an application of interaction based probabilities for parkfield 1 the parkfield cholame section of the san andreas fault site of an unfulfilled earthquake forecast in 1985 is the best monitored section of the world s most closely watched fault in 1983 the m 6 5 coalinga and m 6 0 nunez events struck 25 km northeast of parkfield seismicity rates climbed for 18 months along the creeping section of the san andreas north of parkfield and dropped for 6 years along the locked section to the south right lateral creep also slowed or reversed from parkfield south here we calculate that the coalinga sequence increased the shear and coulomb stress on the creeping section causing the rate of small shocks to rise until the added stress was shed by additional slip however the 1983 events decreased the shear and coulomb stress on the parkfield segment causing surface creep and seismicity rates to drop we use these observations to cast the likelihood of a parkfield earthquake into an interaction based probability which includes both the renewal of stress following the 1966 parkfield earthquake and the stress transfer from the 1983 coalinga events we calculate that the 1983 shocks dropped the 10 year probability of a m 6 parkfield earthquake by 22 from 54 22 to 42 23 and that the probability did not recover until about 1991 when seismicity and creep resumed our analysis may thus explain why the parkfield earthquake did not strike in the 1980s but not why it was absent in the 1990s we calculate a 58 17 probability of a m 6 parkfield earthquake during 2001 2011 index terms 7223 seismology seismic hazard assessment and prediction 7230 seismology seismicity and seismotectonics 7260 seismology theory and modeling keywords coalinga earthquake parkfield stress change earthquake probability seismicity rate

seismic cycle stress change in western taiwan over the last 270 years 1 the island of taiwan is affected by intense seismic activity which includes large events as the disastrous 1999 chi chi earthquake to improve seismic hazard assessment in this area we estimate the effect of both interseismic loading and major events since 1736 on the state of stress of major active faults we focus our approach on western taiwan which is the most densely populated part of taiwan we pay a specific attention to faults geometry and to both interseismic and coseismic slip distributions our results suggest that both earthquakes and interseismic loading before 1999 increase the coulomb stress in the north western part of the chelungpu fault a region which experienced the highest coseismic slip during the chi chi earthquake more importantly our results reveal a coulomb stress increase in the southern part of the changhua thrust fault below a densely populated area

delayed triggering of the 1999 hector mine earthquake by viscoelastic stress transfer stress changes in the crust due to an earthquake can hasten the failure of neighbouring faults and induce earthquake sequences in some cases1 2 3 4 5 the 1999 hector mine earthquake in southern california magnitude 7 1 occurred only 20 km from and 7 years after the 1992 landers earthquake magnitude 7 3 this suggests that the hector mine earthquake was triggered in some fashion by the earlier event but uncertainties in the slip distribution and rock friction properties associated with the landers earthquake have led to widely varying estimates of both the magnitude and sign of the resulting stress change that would be induced at the location of the hector mine hypocentre with estimates varying from 1 4 bar ref 6 to 0 5 bar ref 7 more importantly coseismic stress changes alone cannot satisfactorily explain the delay of 7 years between the two events here we present the results of a three dimensional viscoelastic model that simulates stress transfer from the ductile lower crust and upper mantle to the brittle upper crust in the 7 years following the landers earthquake using viscoelastic parameters that can reproduce the observed horizontal surface deformation following the landers earthquake our calculations suggest that lower crustal or upper mantle flow can lead to postseismic stress increases of up to 1 2 bar at the location of the hector mine hypocentre during this time period contributing to the eventual occurrence of the 1999 hector mine earthquake these results attest to the importance of considering viscoelastic processes in the assessment of seismic hazard8 9 10 11

response of seismicity to coulomb stress triggers and shadows of the 1999 mw 7 6 chi chi taiwan earthquake 1 the correlation between static coulomb stress increases and aftershocks has thus far provided the strongest evidence that stress changes promote seismicity a correlation that the chi chi earthquake well exhibits several studies have deepened the argument by resolving stress changes on aftershock focal mechanisms which removes the assumption that the aftershocks are optimally oriented for failure here one compares the percentage of planes on which failure is promoted after the main shock relative to the percentage beforehand for chi chi we find a 28 increase for thrust and an 18 increase for strike slip mechanisms commensurate with increases reported for other large main shocks however perhaps the chief criticism of static stress triggering is the difficulty in observing predicted seismicity rate decreases in the stress shadows or sites of coulomb stress decrease detection of sustained drops in seismicity rate demands a long catalog with a low magnitude of completeness and a high seismicity rate conditions that are met at chi chi we find four lobes with statistically significant seismicity rate declines of 40 90 for 50 months and they coincide with the stress shadows calculated for strike slip faults the dominant faulting mechanism the rate drops are evident in uniform cell calculations 100 month time series and by visual inspection of the m 3 seismicity an additional reason why detection of such declines has proven so rare emerges from this study there is a widespread increase in seismicity rate during the first 3 months after chi chi and perhaps many other main shocks that might be associated with a different mechanism

strike slip kinematics in central and eastern iran estimating fault slip rates averaged over the holocene 1 according to gps measurements the right lateral shear between central iran and afghan blocks amounts to 16 mm yr a model based on very long term estimates of fault rates suggests the current shear originated about 5 ma ago and has been accommodated by strike slip faulting limited to the western 2 mm yr gowk nayband fault and eastern 14 mm yr sistan system fault edges of the lut block we have used high resolution spot5 pixel size 2 5 m images to measure recent cumulative offsets and estimate slip rates over shorter time periods that average several seismic cycles only recent offsets a few tens of meters have been found along the anar fault inside the central iran plateau and along the sistan faults east of the lut the offset morphologies postdate the last incision of the network and are most probably of holocene age 12 2 ka the corresponding slip rates range between 0 5 0 75 mm yr 1 75 2 5 mm yr 1 5 mm yr 1 2 5 mm yr for the anar east neh west neh and asagie fault respectively these estimates suggest the gps shear rate across the lut may not extrapolate over the holocene they also indicate strike slip faulting is not confined to the lut edges but also occurs in central iran suggesting the ongoing strike slip tectonics might have originated between 8 and 22 ma ago earlier than considered previously and consistent with observations in ne iran

horizontal coseismic deformation of the 2003 bam iran earthquake measured from spot 5 thr satellite imagery 1 on 26 december 2003 a destructive mw 6 5 earthquake occurred in kerman province iran killing more than 30 000 people around the ancient city of bam we map the fault zone and determine the slip distribution using sub pixel correlation of images taken by the spot 5 thr sensor before and after the main shock our results show that the surface displacement occurred on a blind fault oriented n174 and located south of bam a 15 km along strike profile depicts a distribution with a maximum displacement of 1 2 0 15 m near the centre of the fault the mean slip that we infer 0 77 0 05 m is much higher than the ground displacement measured in the field 0 2 m we suggest that field measured displacements are underestimated due to slip accommodation within an 500 m wide shear zone furthermore we demonstrate for the first time the relevancy of 2 5 m spot 5 thr images for sub pixel ground displacement measurements

the 2003 december 26 bam earthquake iran mw 6 6 aftershock sequence summary from 2003 december 29 to 2004 january 30 a dense seismological network of 23 stations was installed in the epicentral area of the 2003 december 26 bam earthquake to study the aftershock seismicity we select the 331 earthquakes recorded at a minimum of 10 stations with rms less than 0 1 s and uncertainties less than 1 km to infer the precise geometry of the seismicity in the fault region we also process the data with the double difference technique to confirm the results the aftershock cluster is 25 km long trends north south and is located 5 km west of the bam baravat escarpment exactly beneath the observed surface breaks at depth aftershocks are concentrated between 6 and 20 km beneath the upper layer of relatively low velocity that experienced the maximum slip and they dip slightly westward the southernmost part of the aftershock cluster is narrow and defines the rupture zone that is likely the bam baravat fault at depth however it is unlikely that it is connected at surface to the bam baravat escarpment but more likely to the co seismic ruptures south of bam on the contrary the distribution of the northernmost aftershocks spread into a more complex pattern which is consistent with a northward propagation of the rupture along the fault plane the focal mechanisms are consistent with right lateral strike slip faulting on n s trending faults parallel to the bam baravat escarpment

the 2003 bam se iran earthquake precise source parameters from satellite radar interferometry summary differential radar interferometry provided high quality near field deformation data for the 2003 bam earthquake and therefore strong constraints on its source parameters the ruptured fault segments could be clearly detected by using a sobel edge filter on the phase unwrapped deformation field the estimated total rupture length is about 24 km more than 80 per cent of the seismic moment was released from its southern segment of about 13 km where the slip reached a maximum of up to 270 cm resulting in a stress drop of at least 6 mpa in addition optical remote sensing data show that the bam fault is not a single fault but consists of a 4 5 km wide fault system with the known main branch running between the city of bam and baravat the fault ruptured by the bam earthquake appears to continue the nw branch of this fault system from bam city southwards based on these results we suggest that the bam earthquake ruptured a hidden or new fault and that in this process an unusually strong asperity was involved

late cenozoic volcanism and rates of active faulting in eastern iran we present new 40ar 39ar ages of samples of volcanic rock exposed along the remote margins of the dasht e lut desert in eastern iran close spatial relationships between the volcanic rocks and the trace of active strike slip faults allow us to determine the slip rates of two major faults averaged since eruption of the volcanics our study shows that the nayband fault at the western margin of the dasht e lut has a slip rate of 223c1 4 0 5 mm yr22121 averaged over 2 25 ma the east neh fault one of several active strike slip faults within the sistan suture zone at the eastern margin of the dasht e lut has a minimum slip rate of 223c1 2 mm yr22121 averaged over 223c1 7 ma the rates of slip on major active faults in eastern iran are largely unknown and the slip rates our data provide though limited are a significant increase on what is known of the faulting within this remote and relatively inaccessible desert region we also present analyses of the major and trace element concentrations within the volcanic rocks the chemistry of the volcanic rocks is typical of intracontinental melts with an overall signature similar to that of ocean island basalts inversion of rare earth element distributions suggests some melting has occurred at depths of 223c80 km indicating the presence of a relatively thin lithosphere beneath eastern iran in agreement with recently published maps of lithospheric thickness derived from shear wave velocities

stress transferred by the 1995 mw 6 9 kobe japan shock effect on aftershocks and future earthquake probabilities the kobe earthquake struck at the edge of the densely populated osaka kyoto corridor in southwest japan we investigate how the earthquake transferred stress to nearby faults altering their proximity to failure and thus changing earthquake probabilities we find that relative to the pre kobe seismicity kobe aftershocks were concentrated in regions of calculated coulomb stress increase and less common in regions of stress decrease we quantify this relationship by forming the spatial correlation between the seismicity rate change and the coulomb stress change the correlation is significant for stress changes greater than 0 2 1 0 bars 0 02 0 1 mpa and the nonlinear dependence of seismicity rate change on stress change is compatible with a state and rate dependent formulation for earthquake occurrence we extend this analysis to future mainshocks by resolving the stress changes on major faults within 100 km of kobe and calculating the change in probability caused by these stress changes transient effects of the stress changes are incorporated by the state dependent constitutive relation which amplifies the permanent stress changes during the aftershock period earthquake probability framed in this manner is highly time dependent much more so than is assumed in current practice because the probabilities depend on several poorly known parameters of the major faults we estimate uncertainties of the probabilities by monte carlo simulation this enables us to include uncertainties on the elapsed time since the last earthquake the repeat time and its variability and the period of aftershock decay we estimate that a calculated 3 bar 0 3 mpa stress increase on the eastern section of the arima takatsuki tectonic line attl near kyoto causes fivefold increase in the 30 year probability of a subsequent large earthquake near kyoto a 2 bar 0 2 mpa stress decrease on the western section of the attl results in a reduction in probability by a factor of 140 to 2000 the probability of a mw 6 9 earthquake within 50 km of osaka during 1997 2007 is estimated to have risen from 5 6 before the kobe earthquake to 7 11 afterward during 1997 2027 it is estimated to have risen from 14 16 before kobe to 16 22

patterns of historical earthquake rupture in the iranian plateau the iranian plateau accommodates the 35 mrn yr convergence rate be tween the eurasian and arabian plates by strike slip and reverse faults with relatively low slip rates in a zone 1000 km across although these faults have only locally been the subject of paleoseismological studies a rich historical and archeological record spans several thousand years long enough to establish recurrence intervals of 1000 to 5000 yr on individual fault segments several clusters of earthquakes provide evidence of interaction among reverse and strike slip faults probably due to adjacent faults being loaded by individual earthquakes the dasht e bayaz sequence of 1936 to 1997 includes earthquakes on left lateral right lateral and reverse faults the neyshabur sequence of four earthquakes between 1209 and 1405 respected the seg ment boundary between the neyshabur and binalud reverse fault systems the two pairs of earthquakes may have ruptured different faults in each segment similar to the 1971 and 1994 san fernando california earthquakes the 1978 tabas reverse fault earthquake was preceded by the 1968 ferdows earthquake part of the dasht e bayaz sequence the north tabriz fault system ruptured from southeast to north west in three earthquakes from 1721 to 1786 a previous cluster may have struck this region in 855 to 958 the mosha fault north of tehran ruptured in three earthquakes in 958 1665 and 1830 five large earthquakes struck the tehran region from 743 to 1177 but only two that large have struck the area since 1177 other earthquakes occurred in pairs in the talesh mountains near the caspian sea 1863 1896 the iran turkey border 1840 1843 and the nayband gowk fault system both 1981 other historical events did not occur as parts of sequences the historic seismic moment release in iran accounts for only a small part of the plate convergence rate which may be due to aseismic slip or to the iranian historical record long as it is being too short to sample long term deformation across the plateau no historic earthquakes of m 8 have struck iran however several long straight strike slip faults doruneh west neh east neh and nayband have not sustained large historical earthquakes raising the possibility that these long faults could produce earthquakes of m 8 thereby removing at least part of the apparent slip deficit an increased understanding of iran s seismic hazard could be obtained by an extensive paleoseismology program and space geodetic arrays supplementing the abundant historical and archaeological record

stress triggering in thrust and subduction earthquakes and stress interaction between the southern san andreas and nearby thrust and strike slip faults 1 we argue that key features of thrust earthquake triggering inhibition and clustering can be explained by coulomb stress changes which we illustrate by a suite of representative models and by detailed examples whereas slip on surface cutting thrust faults drops the stress in most of the adjacent crust slip on blind thrust faults increases the stress on some nearby zones particularly above the source fault blind thrusts can thus trigger slip on secondary faults at shallow depth and typically produce broadly distributed aftershocks short thrust ruptures are particularly efficient at triggering earthquakes of similar size on adjacent thrust faults we calculate that during a progressive thrust sequence in central california the 1983 mw 6 7 coalinga earthquake brought the subsequent 1983 mw 6 0 nunez and 1985 mw 6 0 kettleman hills ruptures 10 bars and 1 bar closer to coulomb failure the idealized stress change calculations also reconcile the distribution of seismicity accompanying large subduction events in agreement with findings of prior investigations subduction zone ruptures are calculated to promote normal faulting events in the outer rise and to promote thrust faulting events on the periphery of the seismic rupture and its downdip extension these features are evident in aftershocks of the 1957 mw 9 1 aleutian and other large subduction earthquakes we further examine stress changes on the rupture surface imparted by the 1960 mw 9 5 and 1995 mw 8 1 chile earthquakes for which detailed slip models are available calculated coulomb stress increases of 2 20 bars correspond closely to sites of aftershocks and postseismic slip whereas aftershocks are absent where the stress drops by more than 10 bars we also argue that slip on major strike slip systems modulates the stress acting on nearby thrust and strike slip faults we calculate that the 1857 mw 7 9 fort tejon earthquake on the san andreas fault and subsequent interseismic slip brought the coalinga fault 1 bar closer to failure but inhibited failure elsewhere on the coast ranges thrust faults the 1857 earthquake also promoted failure on the white wolf reverse fault by 8 bars which ruptured in the 1952 mw 7 3 kern county shock but inhibited slip on the left lateral garlock fault which has not ruptured since 1857 we thus contend that stress transfer exerts a control on the seismicity of thrust faults across a broad spectrum of spatial and temporal scales

aftershocks halted by static stress shadows the role of permanent versus transient crustal stress changes in triggering earthquakes is debated analysis of the stress imparted by the joshua tree and nearby landers earthquakes in california in 1992 implies that a permanent drop in stress can halt aftershocks so such static stress changes should be incorporated into seismic hazard assessments

simulation of ground motion in the zagros region of iran using the specific barrier model and the stochastic method abstract physically based ground motion prediction equations for soil and rock sites in the zagros region have been developed based on the specific barrier model sbm used within the context of the stochastic model instead of direct time domain simulation random vibration theory was used to estimate measures of peak motion in terms of the pseudospectral velocity of anelastic harmonic oscillator with 5 viscous damping to avoid the uncertainties calibration of the source model uses a database of carefully selected strong motion data without ambiguity about the site condition therefore only rock sites are selected for determining source parameters also to avoid any inconsistencies caused by magnitude conversion formulas we restricted the dataset only to events with available moment magnitudes regression analysis is performed using the random effects model that considers both interevent and intraevent variabilities to effectively deal with the problem of an unequal number of records from different earthquakes no sign of self similarity breakdown is observed between the source radius and its seismic moment the local and global stress drops derived for the zagros region 39 and 116 bars respectively are more consistent with the values obtained by other authors for an interplate regime than the values for an intraplate region however from the viewpoint of source heterogeneity as the ratio of the stress drops is an indicator of the complexity of the source and heterogeneity of slip on the fault the zagros events which have a stress drop ratio of about three are more homogeneous than other interplate events stochastic simulations are then implemented to predict peak ground motion and response spectra parameters for rock and soil site conditions online material catalog tables of earthquakes and attenuation tables

the 2011 m 9 0 tohoku oki earthquake more than doubled the probability of large shocks beneath tokyo 1 the kanto seismic corridor surrounding tokyo has hosted four to five m 7 earthquakes in the past 400 years immediately after the tohoku earthquake the seismicity rate in the corridor jumped 10 fold while the rate of normal focal mechanisms dropped in half the seismicity rate decayed for 6 12 months after which it steadied at three times the pre tohoku rate the seismicity rate jump and decay to a new rate as well as the focal mechanism change can be explained by the static stress imparted by the tohoku rupture and postseismic creep to kanto faults we therefore fit the seismicity observations to a rate state coulomb model which we use to forecast the time dependent probability of large earthquakes in the kanto seismic corridor we estimate a 17 probability of a m 7 0 shock over the 5 year prospective period 11 march 2013 to 10 march 2018 two and a half times the probability had the tohoku earthquake not struck

the 2010 2011 south rigan baluchestan earthquake sequence and its implications for distributed deformation and earthquake hazard in southeast iran we investigate the source processes and tectonic significance of two earthquakes that occurred on 2010 december 20 mw 6 5 and 2011 january 27 mw 6 2 within a desert region south of the town of rigan se iran the two earthquakes which we refer to as the south rigan events occurred close to one another at the northern margin of the shahsavaran mountains a mainly volcanic chain in which the potential for active faulting has not previously been considered in detail surface displacements mapped using sar interferometry multiple event relocation analysis of epicentres body waveform modelling and field measurements of surface rupture together reveal that the 2010 december 20 earthquake involved an average of 1 3 m right lateral slip on a vertical fault trending 210 whereas the 2011 january 27 resulted from 0 6 m of slip on a conjugate left lateral fault striking 310 parallel to the trend of the shahsavaran mountains and confined within a zone of increased coulomb stress from the earlier main shock the main slip for the 2010 and 2011 main shocks failed to reach the surface though minor cracks and en echelon fissures were mapped following both events some of the surface cracks may have been enhanced during a period of minor afterslip in the days following the 2010 main shock using the insights gained from our investigation of the two south rigan earthquakes we perform a regional reconnaissance of the active faulting using spot5 2 5 m satellite imagery we show that distributed n s right lateral faulting is widely distributed north of the shahsavaran mountains we also show evidence for left lateral strike slip faulting parallel to the shahsavaran mountains with a component of extension in the east and shortening in the west which is likely to accommodate regional n s right lateral shearing by clockwise rotation about a vertical axis the distributed strike slip faulting is closely associated with the distribution of towns and villages and constitutes a continuing hazard to local populations

asperities barriers characteristic earthquakes and strong motion prediction recent results from paleoseismology suggest that earthquakes recurrent on a given fault may often have the same characteristic length and amount of slip stable asperities and barriers which survive many earthquakes can explain these results the activity of volcano usu japan since 1977 which produced a dacite dome with a total upheaval of 180 m offered a great opportunity to study the recurrence behavior of a fault seismologists at hokkaido university revealed a family of repeated earthquakes with nearly the same amount of slip generated from the same fault plane on the crater wall along which the dome moved upward this family can be explained by the existence of a stable asperity on the crater wall and is called the asperity type family they found however another type of family of earthquakes which share the same fault plane but show a great range of variation in the amount of slip the behavior of the latter family can be explained by the presence of weak barriers over a fault plane defined by strong stable barriers and this family is referred to as the barrier type family this type of earthquake model has been used successfully in the interpretation of observed strong motion acceleration spectra from california and the results reveal the stability of local stress drop among different earthquakes the agreement found between local stress drops estimated from strong motion data and those inferred from geological observation supports the possibility for predicting earthquake strong motion directly from geological observation of the causative fault

coulomb stress changes and secondary stress triggering during the 2003 mw 6 6 bam iran earthquake abstract the 26 december 2003 mw 6 6 bam earthquake is one of the most destructive events in the recorded history of iran good variable slip fault models and precise aftershock data enabled us to calculate coulomb stress changes on the surrounding faults optimally oriented faults and the aftershock nodal planes to learn whether they were brought closer to failure we also test the role of secondary stress on the aftershocks triggering calculated stress on the surrounding faults showed that the southern part of the gowk fault and middle part of the dalfard and bam faults received positive stress changes stress also increases at the ends of the ruptured fault plane to expand it our calculations showed that deeper part of the bam fault planes received positive stress changes due to slipping on the shallow depth it can lead to the occurrence of aftershocks and enhance the probability of large events in the future that represent a substantial remaining seismic hazard to the reconstructed city of bam by imparting stress on optimally oriented faults the correlation between coulomb stress changes and aftershock distribution is investigated obtained results showed good correlation between coulomb stress change and seismicity from 331 well located aftershock hypocenters about 270 events 81 are located in the positive stress changes area the imparted stress due to the main shock and secondary aftershocks on the nodal planes of the 158 aftershocks is calculated the results show that the imparted stress due to main shock encouraged about 60 1 of nodal planes and 77 8 of the chosen nodal planes of aftershocks and added secondary aftershock encouraged about 81 6 of chosen nodal planes in other word by adding secondary triggering stress coulomb index for chosen nodal planes increased from 0 778 to 0 816 and about 80 of aftershocks receive greater positive stress changes

a sharp view on river dune transition to upper stage plane bed sandy river beds are dominated by rhythmic features known as dunes experimental investigations of turbulent flow and sediment transport over dunes have predominantly focused on equilibrium flows that are rare in natural rivers using a novel acoustic instrument over migrating dunes in a laboratory setting we quantify a number of dynamical properties that are crucial in our understanding and modeling of dune morphology and kinematics particularly under nonequilibrium flows during dune transition to upper stage plane bed measured sediment transport distributions reveal a positive spatial lag between dune crest and maximum sediment transport rate that eventually caused washing out of dunes bed load was entirely captured in dune troughs contributing to dune translation where most of suspended load was advected further downstream contributing to dune deformation measured bypass fraction was about 76 which means that only 24 of the total sediment load at the dune crest contributed to dune migration

a search for evidence of secondary static stress triggering during the 1992 mw7 3 landers california earthquake sequence secondary triggering of aftershocks is widely observed and often ascribed to secondary static stress transfer however small to moderate earthquakes are generally disregarded in estimates of coulomb stress changes cfs either because of source parameter uncertainties or a perceived lack of importance we use recently published high quality focal mechanisms and hypocenters to reassess the role of small to moderate earthquakes for static stress triggering of aftershocks during the 1992 mw7 3 landers california earthquake sequence we compare the cfs imparted by aftershocks 2 m 6 onto subsequent aftershocks with the total cfs induced by the m 6 main shocks we find that incremental stress changes between aftershock pairs are potentially more often positive than expected over intermediate distances cumulative aftershock stress changes are not reliable for receivers with nearby aftershock stress sources because we exclude unrealistic aftershock stress shadows that result from uniform slip models nonetheless 27 of aftershocks receive greater positive stress from aftershocks than from the main shocks overall 85 of aftershocks are encouraged by the main shocks while adding secondary stress encourages only 79 we infer that source parameter uncertainties of small aftershocks remain too large to convincingly demonstrate or rule out that secondary stress transfer induces aftershocks an important exception concerns aftershocks in main shock stress shadows well resolved secondary stress from detected aftershocks rarely compensates negative main shock stress these aftershocks require a different triggering mechanism

simulation of strong ground motion in northern iran using the specific barrier model summary in this study based upon the calibrated specific barrier model sbm against the latest available strong motion data ground motion prediction equations for soil and rock sites in northern iran are developed the sbm may provide the most complete simple and self consistent description of the faulting process which is applicable in both near fault and far field regions consequently the sbm may provide consistent ground motion simulations over the entire necessary frequency range and for all distances of engineering interests to determine source parameters in this study we used 163 three component records of 32 earthquakes with magnitude ranging from mw 4 9 to 7 4 in northern iran in the database records with hypocentral distances less than 200 km are chosen and only earthquakes whose moment magnitude estimates are available have been used furthermore using the best available information recording sites are classified into two main geologic categories rock and soil because of the lack of site amplification information in the most regions of the world including iran we used the h v ratio method for estimating the site amplification moreover the kappa factor that shows diminishing the high frequency amplitude is determined in this study two data sets are considered for determining the source parameters g and l and the h v ratio and the kappa factor only s wave part of signals is used in each analysis regression analysis is performed using random effects method that considers both interseismic event to event and coseismic within event variabilities to effectively deal with the problem of weighting observations from different earthquakes the residuals are controlled against available northern iranian strong ground motion data to verify that the model predictions are unbiased and that there are no significant residual trends with magnitude and distance at first it is assumed that no sign of self similarity breakdown is observed between the source radius and its seismic moment after controlling the results the modified sbm should be used as some deviations have been observed to verify the robustness of the results the number of observations is changed by removing various randomly selected data sets from the original database which results in unchanged results of the model stochastic simulations are then implemented to predict peak ground motion and response spectra parameters the stochastic sbm predictions are in relatively good agreement with other available attenuation relationships proposed for iran europe and middle east it has been shown that the proposed sbm of this study provides unbiased ground motion estimates over the entire frequency range of most engineering applications it provides a reliable and physically realistic yet computationally efficient way to model strong ground motions

source fault structure of the 2003 bam earthquake southeastern iran inferred from the aftershock distribution and its relation to the heavily damaged area existence of the arg e bam fault proposed 1 we investigate the hypocenter distribution of aftershocks of the december 26 2003 bam earthquake mw 6 5 by using a temporal seismic network the hypocenters distribute linearly over about 20 km in parallel with a line 3 5 km west of the geological bam fault and extend from the south of bam city to the heavily damaged area in the eastern part of the city including the historical mud brick citadel arg e bam based on the hypocenter distribution we propose a schematic 3 d structural model of a new fault that we have named the arg e bam fault we suggest that the bam earthquake occurred not in the bam fault but in the arg e bam fault bam city is located just above northern part of the arg e bam fault and also on the rupture propagation direction from the asperity this may be one of the main reasons why eastern part of bam city suffered the heaviest damage

crustal stress map of iran insight from seismic and geodetic computations we used the focal mechanisms of crustal earthquakes depth 40 km in the period 1909 2012 and the available gps velocities derived from the data collected between 1999 to 2011 to estimate the magnitude and directions of maximum principal stress and strain rates in iran the pearson product moment correlation was used to find the correlation between the stress field obtained from the focal mechanism stress inversion and that obtained using the seismic and geodetic strain rates our assumption is that stresses in a continuum are produced by tectonic forces and the consequent deformation on the crustal scale therefore the direction of the stress and strain or strain rate are ideally to be the same our results show a strong correlation between the directions of the principal components of stress and strain rate obtained using the different data methods using weighted average analysis we present a new stress map for iran

long term fault slip rates distributed deformation rates and forecast of seismicity in the iranian plateau in this paper the long term crustal flow of the iranian plateau is computed using a kinematic finite element model neokinema software based on the iterated weighted least squares method the models are fitted to the newest data set of iran including updated fault traces geologic fault offset rates geodetic benchmark velocities principal stress directions and velocity boundary conditions we are successful to find the best kinematic model in which geological slip rates geodetic velocities and interpolated stress directions are fitted at levels of 0 35 1 0 and 1 0 datum standard deviation respectively the best fitted model for the first time provides long term fault slip rates velocity and anelastic strain rate field in the iranian plateau from all available kinematic data in order to verify the model the estimates of fault slip rates are compared to slip rates from merely analyzing geodetic benchmark velocities or paleoseismological studies or published geological rates which have not been used in the model our estimated rates are all in the range of geodetic rates and are even more consistent with geological rates than previous gps based estimates using the selected model long term average seismicity maps and long term moment rates are produced on the basis of the shift hypothesis and previous global calibrations our kinematic model also provides a new constraint on ratio of seismic deformation to total deformation for different seismic zones of iran the resulting slip rates and the proposed seismic fraction of deformation provide the necessary input data for future time dependent hazard studies in iran moreover spatial distribution and total number of strong m 6 and major m 7 earthquakes which dominate the seismic hazard are all compatible with the regional seismic catalog

sensitivity of static stress calculations to the earthquake slip distribution 1 the apparent strong correlation between coulomb stress changes and the spatial distribution of aftershocks suggests the possibility of making near real time estimations of areas at risk of experiencing off fault aftershocks in order to do this in practice a number of issues must first be addressed including the extent to which the main shock slip must be known in detail before a meaningful stress map can be constructed here we investigate this issue by constructing a time ordered sequence of slip solutions for the landers earthquake computing coulomb stress changes for each solution and quantitatively comparing the stress field with the observed aftershocks by 1 resolving the coulomb stress change onto the aftershock nodal planes and calculating the percentage of events consistent with triggering and 2 constructing a two dimensional map of coulomb stress and computing the correlation coefficient between the positive and negative areas and the locations of the aftershocks we find that slip solutions based on empirical relations and either focal mechanism or moment tensor data produce stress fields inconsistent with the observed spatial distribution of aftershocks whereas slip solutions incorporating the correct rupture geometry but greatly simplified slip produce stress fields consistent with the aftershock distribution when very near fault events are excluded we further find that resolving stress perturbations onto earthquake nodal planes and computing the percentage of events experiencing positive coulomb stress provides a poor measure of success because of the limited range of structures on which events occur and the compatibility of the main shock stress field with these structures our results support the hypothesis that coulomb stress changes affect the spatial distribution of aftershocks and suggest that meaningful calculations of coulomb stress can be made as soon as an earthquake s rupture geometry is well constrained

active tectonics and late cenozoic strain distribution in central and eastern iran 1 right lateral shear between central iran and afghanistan is accommodated on n s right lateral strike slip faults surrounding the aseismic dasht e lut north of 34 n the right lateral shear is accommodated on left lateral faults that rotate clockwise about vertical axes little is known of the late tertiary and younger offsets and slip rates on the active fault systems results that are important for understanding the regional tectonics we use observations from satellite imagery to identify displaced geological and geomorphological markers which we use in conjunction with the overall morphology and orientation of the active fault systems to estimate the total cumulative right lateral shear estimates of cumulative fault movements from offset features and inferred vertical axis rotation of fault bounded blocks suggest that the late cenozoic strain is concentrated toward the eastern margin of iran along the sistan shear zone where bedrock offsets of at least 70 km are observed across the active faults the geomorphology of the deh shir anar and great kavir strike slip faults in central iran suggest that although little shortening is accommodated across this region they might still be active and hence capable of producing earthquakes present day activity on these faults in central iran would not be expected from distributions of instrumental and historical earthquakes although speculative the late tertiary strain distribution described in this paper is consistent with what we know of the present day rates of shear in eastern iran and provides a framework to which later more detailed work can be added

calibration of the specific barrier model to earthquakes of different tectonic regions the specific barrier model proposed and developed by papageorgiou and aki 1983a b 1985 provides the most complete yet parsimonious self consis tent description of the faulting process it applies both in the near fault and in the far field region thus allowing for consistent ground motion simulations over the entire frequency range and for all distances of engineering interest the model has been implemented in the stochastic method and calibrated with extended databases of response spectral amplitudes from earthquakes of intraplate regions mainly east ern north america events interplate regions and regions of tectonic extension spu dich et al 1999 database the ensemble average value of a key parameter of the specific barrier model the local stress drop dr l i s 161 bars for interplate earth quakes 114 bars for extensional regime earthquakes and 180 bars for intraplate earthquakes the high frequency source spectral levels of interplate and extensional regime earthquakes deviate significantly from self similar scaling the deviation is most likely caused by the effective source area and or irregularities in the rupture kinematics we account for their overall effects through a high frequency source complexity factor f in the source spectrum of the specific barrier model as a result inter and intraplate source spectra show similar high frequency levels at moderate magnitudes but intraplate earthquakes have higher spectral levels at the larger mag nitudes the interplate soil residuals show clear signs of nonlinear site response whereas only slight signs of such nonlinearity are observed for the extensional data set the regional models calibrated in this study are in reasonably good agreement with other regional attenuation relationships and provide a reliable and physically realistic yet computationally efficient way to model strong ground motions with implications for seismic hazard and risk analysis online material strong motion station and event station pair information

strong ground motion simulation of the 6 april 2009 l aquila italy earthquake on 6 april 2009 an earthquake of mw 6 13 herrmann et al 2011 occurred in central italy close to the town of l aquila although the earthquake is considered to be a moderate size event it caused extensive damage to the surround ing area the earthquake is identified with significant directivity effects high amplitude short duration motions are observed at the stations that are oriented along the rupture direction whereas low amplitude long duration motions are observed at the stations oriented in the direction opposite to the rupture the complex nature of the earthquake combined with its damage potential brings the need for studies that assess the seismological characteristics of the 2009 l aquila mainshock in this study we present the strong ground motion simulation of this particular earthquake using a stochastic finite fault model with a dynamic corner frequency ap proach for modeling the resulting ground motions we choose two finite fault source models that take into account the source complexity of the l aquila mainshock in order to test the sensitivity of ground motion parameters to the seismic wave attenua tion parameters we use two different attenuation models obtained in the study region using weak motion and strong motion databases comparisons are made between the attenuation of synthetics and ground motion prediction equations gmpes synthetic ground motions are further compared with the observed ones in terms of fourier amplitude and response spectra at 21 strong ground motion stations that recorded the mainshock within an epicentral distance of 100 km the spatial distribution of shaking intensity obtained from the did you feel it project and site survey results are compared with the spatial distributions of simulated peak ground motion intensity parameters our results show that despite the limitations of the method in simulating the directivity effects the stochastic finite fault model seems an effective and fast tool to simulate the high frequency portion of ground motions

field and teleseismic observations of the 1981 golbaf sirch earthquakes in se iran summary in 1981 june and july two large earthquakes occurred on the gowk fault system in south east iran both earthquakes were associated with surface faulting showing a combination of reverse and right lateral strike slip motion on parallel adjacent faults striking north south and dipping both east and west such motion can be seen to have occurred in the recent past and is responsible for the formation of elongated alluvium filled depressions in the footwall region common to both the east and west dipping faults the earthquake of june 11 involved motion along about 15 km of the gowk fault system with a moment of about 1 0 1026 dyne cm the earthquake of july 28 was larger and occurred farther north with movement along at least 65km of the gowk fault system and a moment of about 7 1026 dyne cm surface faulting in both earthquakes was complex and spread over several kilometres width on en echelon fault segments as well as on faults dipping both east and west the long period wwssn seismograms of these two mainshocks are unusually complicated and clearly made up of several individual subevents sensible interpretation of these waveforms without guidance from the surface faulting and the long period sro moment tensor inversion of dziewonski woodhouse would be impossible however a combination of these three data sources allows a geologically plausible interpretation of the rupture processes in these earthquakes to be made although the faulting in both mainshocks was on the same large scale feature the gowk fault the rupture zones of the two earthquakes did not apparently overlap and were separated by a gap of 5 km along strike in which both coseismic and recent geological displacements are very small rupture in both mainshocks appears to have nucleated near this gap and to have propagated away from it other such gaps are visible along the irregular displacement of the northern fault break and may have been the nucleation positions for individual subevents of the july 28 earthquake recognition of such nucleation sites is of obvious importance to earthquake prediction efforts

suppression of large earthquakes by stress shadows a comparison of coulomb and rate and state failure stress shadows generated by california s two most recent great earthquakes 1857 fort tejon and 1906 san francisco substantially modified 19th and 20th century earthquake history in the los angeles basin and in the san francisco bay area simple coulomb failure calculations which assume that earthquakes can be modeled as static dislocations in an elastic half space have done quite well at approximating how long the stress shadows or relaxing effects should last and at predicting where subsequent large earthquakes will not occur there has however been at least one apparent exception to the predictions of such simple models the 1911 m 6 0 earthquake near morgan hill california occurred at a relaxed site on the calaveras fault we examine how the more complex rate and state friction formalism based on laboratory experiments might have allowed the 1911 earthquake rate and state time to failure calculations are consistent with the occurrence of the 1911 event just 5 years after 1906 if the calaveras fault was already close to failure before the effects of 1906 we also examine the likelihood that the entire 78 years of relative quiet only four m 6 earthquakes in the bay area after 1906 is consistent with rate and state assumptions given that the previous 7 decades produced 18 m 6 earthquakes combinations of rate and state variables can be found that are consistent with this pattern of large bay area earthquakes assuming that the rate of earthquakes in the 7 decades before 1906 would have continued had 1906 not occurred these results demonstrate that rate and state offers a consistent explanation for the 78 year quiescence and the 1911 anomaly although they do not rule out several alternate explanations

stress history controls the spatial pattern of aftershocks case studies from strike slip earthquakes earthquake ruptures perturb stress within the surrounding crustal volume and as it is widely accepted now these stress perturbations strongly correlates with the following seismicity here we have documented five cases of the mainshock aftershock sequences generated by the strike slip faults from different tectonic environments of world in order to demonstrate that the stress changes resulting from large preceding earthquakes decades before effect spatial distribution of the aftershocks of the current mainshocks the studied mainshock aftershock sequences are the 15 october 1979 imperial valley earthquake mw 6 4 in southern california the 27 november 1979 khuli boniabad mw 7 1 the 10 may 1997 qa enat mw 7 2 and the 31 march 2006 silakhor mw 6 1 earthquakes in iran and the 13 march 1992 erzincan earthquake mw 6 7 in turkey in the literature we have been able to find only these mainshocks that are mainly characterized by dense and strong aftershock activities along and beyond the one end of their ruptures while rare aftershock occurrences with relatively lower magnitude reported for the other end of their ruptures it is shown that the stress changes resulted from earlier mainshock s that are close in both time and space might be the reason behind the observed aftershock patterns the largest aftershocks of the mainshocks studied tend to occur inside the stress increased lobes that were also stressed by the background earthquakes and not to occur inside the stress increased lobes that fall into the stress shadow of the background earthquakes we suggest that the stress shadows of the previous mainshocks may persist in the crust for decades to suppress aftershock distribution of the current mainshocks considering active researches about use of the coulomb stress change maps as a practical tool to forecast spatial distribution of the upcoming aftershocks for earthquake risk mitigation purposes in near real time it is further suggested that the background mainshocks along the neighbouring faults should be taken into account in producing the stress change maps for commenting on aftershock occurrences

offset and evolution of the gowk fault s e iran a major intra continental strike slip system abstract we use drainage reconstructions to estimate long term offsets on the gowk fault an oblique right lateral strike slip fault in eastern iran on which there have been a number of recent large earthquakes a 3 km horizontal offset is inferred from well preserved geomorphology we further identify a total cumulative offset of 12 km which produces a simple reconstruction of geomorphology across the fault filling in pull apart basins restoring rivers to linear courses across the fault trace and aligning structural and bed rock features the probable age of the gowk fault and k ar dating of offset basalts north of the study region suggest an overall slip rate of 1 5 2 4 mm year this is small compared with the overall 10 20 mm year of shear expected between central iran and afghanistan and the deficit is likely to have been accommodated on other faults east of the gowk fault drainage displaced by dextral movement leads to the development of a series of basins along the fault and a longitudinal topographic profile that resembles an asymmetric saw tooth the geomorphic evolution of the fault zone at the surface includes both normal and reverse faulting components reflecting a probable ramp and flat structure in cross section this interpretation is consistent with evidence from the analysis of seismological radar and surface rupture data in recent earthquakes

the source motion of 2003 bam iran earthquake constrained by satellite and ground based geodetic data summary the interpretation of coseismic surface deformation measurements through inversion techniques is of major importance to understand the mechanical behaviour of a seismic fault dense geodetic data sets in the vicinity of the ruptured fault provide unique constraints on detailed fault geometry and slip distribution at depth making them complementary to seismological data bam earthquake mw 6 6 2003 december 26 induced surface deformation has been precisely mapped by envisat asar interferometry and by subpixel correlation techniques applied to spot 5 and asar amplitude images these oblique and horizontal estimations of deformation have been completed with one levelling profile along the main road crossing the rupture from west to east we process these data separately and jointly in a two step inversion technique within the elastic half space theory framework our objective is to determine the dislocation model at depth that satisfies simultaneously all the geodetic constraints also we estimate the relative contribution of each geodetic data set to this inversion process we first use a stochastic direct approach called neighbourhood algorithm in order to estimate the average characteristics of the rupture and their relative uncertainty constraining in this way the geometry of the ruptured fault we then linearize the inverse problem and compute the slip distribution on the fault using a standard weighted least square technique assuming the solution is smooth to some degree at each step we discuss the optimal models their stability as well as the relative influence of each data set on the derived models parameters our preferred model reveals a shallow dislocation on a quasi vertical fault slightly dipping towards east the slip vector has a strike slip component as high as 2 m while the dip slip component seems negligible however the estimation of the resolution matrices emphasizes the fact that the details of deep fault slip distribution remain out of the scope of this ill conditioned inverse problem yet our preferred model suggests a main dislocation limited at depth between 1 and 6 km by contrast the aftershocks observed in the months following the earthquake are located just beneath the estimated main shock

evolution of the stress field in southern california and triggering of moderate size earthquakes a 200 year perspective changes in stress in southern california are modeled from 1812 to 2025 using as input 1 stress drops associated with six large 7 0 7 5 earthquakes through 1995 and 2 stress buildup associated with major faults with slip rates 3 mm yr as constrained by geodetic paleoseismic and seismic measurements evolution of stress and the triggering of moderate to large earthquakes are treated in a tensoffal rather than a scalar manner we present snapshots of the cumulative coulomb failure function acff as a function of time for faults of various strike dip and rake throughout southern california we take acff to be zero everywhere just prior to the great shock of 1812 we find that about 95 of those well located m 6 earthquakes whose mechanisms involve either strike slip or reverse faulting are consistent with the coulomb stress evolutionary model that is they occurred in areas of positive acff the interaction between slow moving faults and stresses generated by faster moving faults significantly advanced the occurrence of the 1933 long beach and 1992 landers events in their earthquake cycles coulomb stresses near major thrust faults of the western and central transverse ranges have been accumulating for a long time future great earthquakes along the san andreas fault especially if the san bernardino and coachella valley segments rupture together can trigger moderate to large earthquakes in the transverse ranges as appears to have happened in the santa barbara earthquake that occurred 13 days after the great san andreas shock of 1812 maps of current acff provide additional guides to long term earthquake prediction

seismotectonic rupture process and earthquake hazard aspects of the 2003 december 26 bam iran earthquake summary the catastrophic 2003 m w 6 6 bam earthquake in southern iran attracted much attention and has been studied with an abundance of observations from synthetic aperture radar teleseismic seismology aftershock studies strong ground motion geomorphology remote sensing and surface field work many reports have focused on the details of one or other data type producing interpretations that either conflict with other data or leave questions unanswered this paper is an attempt to look at all the available data types together to produce a coherent picture of the coseismic faulting in 2003 and to examine its consequences for active tectonics and continuing seismic hazard in the region we conclude that more than 80 per cent of the moment release in the main shock occurred on a near vertical right lateral strike slip fault extending from the city of bam southwards for about 15 km with slip of up t o2mb utmostly restricted to the depth range 2 7 km analysis of the strong ground motion record at bam is consistent with this view and indicates that the extreme damage in the city can be attributed at least in part to the enhancement of ground motion in bam because of its position at the end of the northward propagating rupture little of the slip in the main shock reached the earth s surface and more importantly aftershocks reveal that 12 km vertical extent of a deeper part of the fault system remained unruptured beneath the coseismic rupture plane at depths of 8 20 km this may represent a substantial remaining seismic hazard to the reconstructed city of bam we believe that some oblique reverse slip up to 2 m and less than 20 per cent of the released seismic moment occurred at a restricted depth of 5 7 km on a blind west dipping fault that projects to the surface at the bam baravat escarpment an asymmetric anticline ridge that is the most prominent geomorphological feature in the area this fault did not rupture significantly at shallow levels in 2003 and it may also represent a continuing seismic hazard widespread distributed surface ruptures north of the city are apparently unrelated to substantial slip at depth and may be the result of enhanced ground motion related to northward propagation of the rupture the faulting at bam may be in the early stages of a spatial separation partitioning between the reverse and strike slip components of an oblique convergence across the zone such a separation is common on the continents though in this case the slip vectors between the two faults differ only by 20 as a substantial strike slip component remains on the obliquereverse fault the bam earthquake is one in a series of large earthquakes involving faulting along the western edge of the lut desert in addition to the unruptured parts of the faults near bam itself continuing and substantial hazard is represented by unruptured neighbouring faults particularly blind thrusts along the jebel barez mountains to the south and strike slip faulting at sarvestan to the west

can coseismic stress variability suppress seismicity shadows insights from a rate and state friction model 1 the paucity of detectable seismicity shadows in the days months following a main shock has raised the question as to whether dynamic rather than static triggering could be the main mechanism driving the seismicity at these timescales the lack of correlation between the stress unloading of the main fault and the typically vigourous aftershock production taking place on it however suggests that the spatial heterogeneity of the coseismic stress change could also be a factor in the apparent suppression of seismicity shadows at least on the main fault here we study whether this stress variability can indeed be an important aspect in the stress modeling of earthquake sequences a rate and state friction model of seismicity is used in conjunction with realistic levels of stress heterogeneity at the earthquake nucleation scale 1 10 m as predicted from these friction laws based on scale invariant models of coseismic slip distribution in this model a relatively weak on fault quiescence is delayed by months to years because of the high stress heterogeneity delayed quiescences due to slip heterogeneity are similarly predicted at distances of up to about half the rupture length away from the fault we also postulate that off fault seismicity can be significantly controlled by stress variability that originates from small scale crustal heterogeneity and the complexity in fault geometries rather than mapping stress changes by providing a single stress value at every grid point these results suggest that an estimate of the likely stress variability acting at the nucleation scale is also needed especially when trying to account for the seismicity occurring at relatively short timescales

the 1998 march 14 fandoqa earthquake mw 6 6 in kerman province southeast iran re rupture of the 1981 sirch earthquake fault triggering of slip on adjacent thrusts and the active tectonics of the gowk fault zone summary the 1998 march 14 fandoqa earthquake ms 6 6 was the penultimate in a series of five substantial earthquakes on the gowk fault system of southeast iran since 1981 all of which were associated with co seismic surface ruptures we use observations of surface faulting analysis of p and sh body waves sar interferometry and geomorphology to investigate the ruptures in these earthquakes and how they are related both to each other and to the regional active tectonics the 1998 fandoqa earthquake produced 23 km of surface faulting with up to 3 m right lateral strike slip and 1 m vertical offsets sar interferometry and seismic waveforms show that the main rupture plane dipped west at 50 and had a normal component although the surface ruptures were more complicated being downthrown to both the east and the west on steep faults in near surface sediments in addition sar interferometry shows that a nearby thrust with a similar strike but dipping at 6 w moved about 8 cm in a time interval and in a position that makes it likely that its slip was triggered by the fandoqa earthquake the 1998 surface ruptures in the gowk valley followed part of a much longer 80 km set of co seismic ruptures with smaller offsets that were observed after larger earthquakes in 1981 mw 6 6 and 7 1 the main ruptures in these 1981 earthquakes probably occurred on different deeper parts of the same fault system producing only minor reactivation of the shallower faults at the surface although the 1981 1998 earthquake sequence apparently ruptured parts of the same fault system repeatedly these earthquakes had very different rupture characteristics an important lesson for the interpretation of both palaeoseismological trenching investigations and historical accounts of earthquakes the regional kinematics which involve oblique right lateral and convergent motion are evidently achieved by a complex configuration of faults with normal reverse and strike slip components some of the complexity at the surface may be related to a ramp and flat fault geometry at depth but could also be related to the large topographic contrast of 2000 m across the fault system which separates the high kerman plateau from the low dasht e lut desert details of the fault geometry at depth remain speculative but it must be unstable and evolve with time it may be this requirement that causes the principal features of geological flower structures to develop such as series of subparallel faults which accommodate dip slip components of motion

modeling finite fault radiation from the ωn spectrum the high frequency seismic field near the epicenter of a large earth quake is modeled by subdividing the fault plane into subelements and summing their contributions at the observation point each element is treated as a point source with an o92 spectral shape where co is the angular frequency ground motion contributions from the subsources are calculated using a stochastic model attenuation is based on simple geometric spreading in a whole space coupled with regional anelastic atten uation q operator the form of the co n spectrum with natural n follows from point shear dislocation theory with an appropriately chosen slip time function the seismic moment and comer frequency are the two parameters defining the point source spectrum and must be linked to the subfanlt size to make the method complete two coefficients aa and k provide this link assigning a moment to a subfault of specified size introduces the stress parameter ao the relationship between comer frequency dislocation growth rate and fault size is established through the coefficient k which is inherently nonunique these two parameters control the number of subsources and the ampli tudes of high frequency radiation respectively derivation of the model from shear dislocation theory reveals the unavoidable uncertainty in assigning ogn spectrum to faults with finite size this uncertainty can only be reduced through empirical vali dation the method is verified by simulating data recorded on rock sites near epicenters of the m8 0 1985 michoacan mexico the m8 0 1985 valparaiso chile and the m5 8 1988 saguenay qurbec earthquakes each of these events is among the largest for which strong motion records are available in their respective tectonic environ ments the simulations for the first two earthquakes are compared to the more de tailed modeling of somerville et al 1991 which employs an empirical source function and represents the effects of crustal structure using the theoretical impulse response both methods predict the observations accurately on average the precision of the methods is also approximately equal the predicted acceleration amplitudes in our model are generally within 15 of observations an unexpected result of this study is that a single value of a parameter k provides a good fit to the data at high frequencies for all three earthquakes despite their different tectonic environments this suggests a simplicity in the modeling of source processes that was unanticipated

testing the stress shadow hypothesis 1 a fundamental question in earthquake physics is whether aftershocks are predominantly triggered by static stress changes permanent stress changes associated with fault displacement or dynamic stresses temporary stress changes associated with earthquake shaking both classes of models provide plausible explanations for earthquake triggering of aftershocks but only the static stress model predicts stress shadows or regions in which activity is decreased by a nearby earthquake to test for whether a main shock has produced a stress shadow we calculate time ratios defined as the ratio of the time between the main shock and the first earthquake to follow it and the time between the last earthquake to precede the main shock and the first earthquake to follow it a single value of the time ratio is calculated for each 10 10 km bin within 1 5 fault lengths of the main shock epicenter large values of the time ratio indicate a long wait for the first earthquake to follow the main shock and thus a potential stress shadow whereas small values indicate the presence of aftershocks simulations indicate that the time ratio test should have sufficient sensitivity to detect stress shadows if they are produced in accordance with the rate and state friction model we evaluate the 1989 mw 7 0 loma prieta 1992 mw 7 3 landers 1994 mw 6 7 northridge and 1999 mw 7 1 hector mine main shocks for each main shock there is a pronounced concentration of small time ratios indicating the presence of aftershocks but the number of large time ratios is less than at other times in the catalog this suggests that stress shadows are not present by comparing our results to simulations we estimate that we can be at least 98 confident that the loma prieta and landers main shocks did not produce stress shadows and 91 and 84 confident that stress shadows were not generated by the hector mine and northridge main shocks respectively we also investigate the long hypothesized existence of a stress shadow following the 1906 san francisco bay area earthquake we find that while bay area catalog seismicity rates are lower in the first half of the twentieth century than in the last half of the nineteenth this seismicity contrast is also true outside of the bay area in regions not expected to contain a stress shadow this suggests that the rate change is due to a more system wide effect such as errors in the historical catalog or the decay of aftershocks of the larger 1857 fort tejon earthquake

present day crustal deformation and plate kinematics in the middle east constrained by gps measurements in iran and northern oman summary a network of 27 gps sites was implemented in iran and northern oman to measure displacements in this part of the alpine himalayan mountain belt we present and interpret the results of two surveys performed in 1999 september and 2001 october gps sites in oman show northward motion of the arabian plate relative to eurasia slower than the nuvel 1a estimates e g 22 2m m yr 1 at n8 5 e instead of 30 5 mm yr 1 at n6 e at bahrain longitude we define a gps arabia eurasia euler vector of 27 9 0 5 n 19 5 1 4 e 0 41 0 1 myr 1 the arabia eurasia convergence is accommodated differently in eastern and western iran east of 58 e most of the shortening is accommodated by the makran subduction zone 19 5 2m m yr 1 and less by the kopet dag 6 5 2m m yr 1 west of 58 e the deformation is distributed in separate fold and thrust belts at the longitude of tehran the zagros and the alborz mountain ranges accommodate 6 5 2m m yr 1 and 8 2m m yr 1 respectively the right lateral displacement along the main recent fault in the northern zagros is about 3 2m m yr 1 smaller than what was generally expected by contrast large rightlateral displacement takes place in northwestern iran up to 8 mm yr 1 the central iranian block is characterized by coherent plate motion internal deformation 2m m yr 1 sites east of 61 e show very low displacements relative to eurasia the kinematic contrast between eastern and western iran is accommodated by strike slip motions along the lut block to the south the transition zone between zagros and makran is under transpression with right lateral displacements of 11 2m m yr 1

onto what planes should coulomb stress perturbations be resolved 1 coulomb stress maps are produced by computing the tensorial stress perturbation due to an earthquake rupture and resolving this tensor onto planes of a particular orientation it is often assumed that aftershock fault planes are optimally oriented in other words the regional stress and coseismic stress change are used to compute the orientation of planes most likely to fail and the coseismic stress is resolved onto these orientations this practice assumes that faults capable of sustaining aftershocks exist at all orientations an assumption contradicted by the observation that aftershock focal mechanisms have strong preferred orientations consistent with mapped structural trends here we systematically investigate the best planes onto which stress should be resolved for the landers hector mine loma prieta and northridge earthquakes by quantitatively comparing observed aftershock distributions with stress maps based on optimally oriented planes two and three dimensional main shock orientation and regional structural trend we find that the best model differs between different tectonic regions but that in all cases models that incorporate the regional stress field tend to produce stress maps that best fit the observed aftershock distributions although not all such models do so equally well our results suggest that when the regional stress field is poorly defined or in structurally complex areas the best model may be to fix the strike of the planes upon which the stress is to be resolved to that of the main shock but allow the dip and rake to vary

the 2012 august 11 ahar earthquakes consequences for tectonics and earthquake hazard in the turkish iranian plateau we have examined the faulting in the 2012 august 11 mw 6 4 and 6 3 ahar nw iran earthquakes using a combination of field mapping remote sensing observations of tectonic geomorphology the cross correlation of optical satellite images and the inversion of seismic waveforms the first event was close to pure strike slip and the second was an oblique combination of thrust and strike slip motion mapped surface ruptures indicate at least one of these events accommodated mostly right lateral strike slip motion on an e w striking plane the occurrence of these earthquakes highlights the spatially distributed deformation in nw iran which has implications for both hazard assessment the ahar events killed over 300 people and injured over 3000 and also tectonic models of the region furthermore these earthquakes demonstrate that the tectonics of the ahar area is characterized by strike slip faulting and a component of shortening and not the previously suggested extension

seismicity rate changes along the central california coast due to stress changes from the 2003 m 6 5 san simeon and 2004 m 6 0 parkfield earthquakes abstract we investigated the relationship between seismicity rate changes and modeled coulomb static stress changes from the 2003 m 6 5 san simeon and the 2004 m 6 0 parkfield earthquakes in central california coulomb stress modeling indicates that the san simeon mainshock loaded parts of the rinconada hosgri and san andreas strike slip faults along with the reverse faults of the southern los osos domain all of these loaded faults except for the san andreas experienced a seismicity rate increase at the time of the san simeon mainshock the parkfield earthquake occurred 9 months later on the loaded portion of the san andreas fault the parkfield earthquake unloaded the hosgri fault and the reverse faults of the southern los osos domain which both experienced seismicity rate decreases at the time of the parkfield event although the decreases may be related to the decay of san simeon triggered seismicity coulomb stress unloading from the parkfield earthquake appears to have altered the aftershock decay rate of the southern cluster of san simeon aftershocks which is deficient compared to the expected number of aftershocks from the omori decay parameters based on the pre parkfield aftershocks dynamic stress changes cannot explain the deficiency of aftershocks providing evidence that static stress changes affect earthquake occurrence however a burst of seismicity following the parkfield earthquake at ragged point where the static stress was decreased provides evidence for dynamic stress triggering it therefore appears that both coulomb static stress changes and dynamic stress changes affect the seismicity rate

the 2003 bam iran earthquake rupture of a blind strike slip fault a magnitude 6 5 earthquake devastated the town of bam in southeast iran on 26 december 2003 surface displacements and decorrelation effects mapped using envisat radar data reveal that over 2 m of slip occurred at depth on a fault that had not previously been identified it is common for earthquakes to occur on blind faults which despite their name usually produce long term surface effects by which their existence may be recognised however in this case there is a complete absence of morphological features associated with the seismogenic fault that destroyed bam

source process and slip model of 2005 dahuiyeh zarand earthquake iran using inversion of near field strong motion data summary on 2005 february 22 the dahuiyeh zarand earthquake mw 6 5 struck one of the most seismically active regions in south central iran east of zarand city in kerman province causing more than 500 fatalities the causative fault of the 2005 dahuiyeh zarand earthquake a reverse fault striking nearly ew and dipping to the north was located within a mountainous region and therefore more difficult to identify compared to the range bounded faults its identification after the 2005 event is very important for both the estimation of seismic hazard as well as for the damage and fatality functions we have inverted six three component near field strong motion waveforms to obtain the complete earthquake rupture history and slip distribution accelerograms are bandpass filtered with 0 2 1 0 hz and a length of 15 17 s of the waveforms is inverted the lack of absolute timing has been successfully overcome by estimating from the velocity model of the region the propagation of p and s waves from the epicentre to the stations the final fault slip model and the estimated source parameters are able to explain the observed waveforms the rupture is found to be bilateral with a maximum slip of 2 4 m concentrated on two asperities in the west and east sides of the nucleation point at depths of 6 12 km the western asperity is located to the east of zarand city and beneath the dahuiyeh village which might explain why the dahuiyeh village was totally destroyed by this earthquake

triggering of the 1999 mw 7 1 hector mine earthquake by aftershocks of the 1992 mw 7 3 landers earthquake 1 there is strong observational evidence that the 1999 mw 7 1 hector mine earthquake in the mojave desert california was triggered by the nearby 1992 mw 7 3 landers earthquake many authors have proposed that the landers earthquake directly stressed the hector mine fault our model of the landers aftershock sequence however suggests there is an 85 chance that the hector mine hypocenter was actually triggered by a chain of smaller earthquakes that was initiated by the landers main shock we perform our model simulations using the monte carlo method based on the gutenberg richter relationship omori s law bath s law and assumptions that all earthquakes including aftershocks are capable of producing aftershocks and that aftershocks produce their own aftershocks at the same rate that other earthquakes do in general our simulations show that if it has been more than several days since an m 7 main shock most new aftershocks will be the result of secondary triggering these secondary aftershocks are not physically constrained to occur where the original main shock increased stress this may explain the significant fraction of aftershocks that have been found to occur in main shock stress shadows in static coulomb stress triggering studies

global omori law decay of triggered earthquakes large aftershocks outside the classical aftershock zone 1 triggered earthquakes can be large damaging and lethal as evidenced by the1999 shocks in turkey and the 2001 earthquakes in el salvador in this study earthquakes with ms 7 0 from the harvard centroid moment tensor cmt catalog are modeled as dislocations to calculate shear stress changes on subsequent earthquake rupture planes near enough to be affected about 61 of earthquakes that occurred near defined as having shear stress change 0 01 mpa the ms 7 0 shocks are associated with calculated shear stress increases while 39 are associated with shear stress decreases if earthquakes associated with calculated shear stress increases are interpreted as triggered then such events make up at least 8 of the cmt catalog globally these triggered earthquakes obey an omori law rate decay that lasts between 7 11 years after the main shock earthquakes associated with calculated shear stress increases occur at higher rates than background up to 240 km away from the main shock centroid omori s law is one of the few time predictable patterns evident in the global occurrence of earthquakes if large triggered earthquakes habitually obey omori s law then their hazard can be more readily assessed the characteristic rate change with time and spatial distribution can be used to rapidly assess the likelihood of triggered earthquakes following events of ms 7 0 i show an example application to the m 7 7 13 january 2001 el salvador earthquake where use of global statistics appears to provide a better rapid hazard estimate than coulomb stress change calculations

reliability of coulomb stress changes inferred from correlated uncertainties of finite fault source models 1 static stress transfer is one physical mechanism to explain triggered seismicity coseismic stress change calculations strongly depend on the parameterization of the causative finite fault source model these models are uncertain due to uncertainties in input data model assumptions and modeling procedures however fault model uncertainties have usually been ignored in stress triggering studies and have not been propagated to assess the reliability of coulomb failure stress change cfs calculations we show how these uncertainties can be used to provide confidence intervals for co seismic cfs values we demonstrate this for the mw 5 9 june 2000 kleifarvatn earthquake in southwest iceland and systematically map these uncertainties a set of 2500 candidate source models from the full posterior fault parameter distribution was used to compute 2500 cfs maps we assess the reliability of the cfs values from the coefficient of variation cv and deem cfs values to be reliable where they are at least twice as large as the standard deviation cv 0 5 unreliable cfs values are found near the causative fault and between lobes of positive and negative stress change where a small change in fault strike causes cfs values to change sign the most reliable cfs values are found away from the source fault in the middle of positive and negative cfs lobes a likely general pattern using the reliability criterion our results support the static stress triggering hypothesis nevertheless our analysis also suggests that results from previous stress triggering studies not considering source model uncertainties may have lead to a biased interpretation of the importance of static stress triggering

stochastic finite fault simulations of the 2011 tohoku japan earthquake we performed stochastic finite fault simulations for the moment magnitude m 9 0 11 march 2011 tohoku earthquake at kik net sites using the exsim algorithm motazedian and atkinson 2005 atkinson et al 2009 boore 2009 the average response spectra of the simulated ground motions were calculated and compared with observed ground motions to determine whether stochastic finite fault modeling can reproduce key features of the recorded motions to account for variations in source characteristics we examined three rupture process models a single event model with random slip distribution a single event model with prescribed slip distribution yagi 2011 see data and resources 1 and a multiple event model with five strong motion generation areas kurahashi and irikura 2011 the analysis results indicate that the single event models can model the high frequency response spectra values well but result in significant model bias in the low frequency range by contrast the multiple event model produces ground motions that are in good agreement with the observations in both high and low frequency ranges furthermore the multiple event model can capture temporal characteristics of observed ground motions including multiphase arrivals of major seismic wave groups importantly the calibrated exsim model for the 2011 tohoku earthquake can be used to produce predicted ground motions in other regions such as the cascadia subduction region of north america by suitable modifications of regional attenuation and site parameters the suitability of the simple stochastic simulation method to prediction of motions for future events the details of which are poorly known makes its calibration to tohoku a useful exercise 1 sec 14