basal melting of ross ice shelf from solar heat absorption in an ice front polynya ice ocean interactions at the bases of antarctic ice shelves are rarely observed yet have a profound influence on ice sheet evolution and stability ice sheet models are highly sensitive to assumed ice shelf basal melt rates however there are few direct observations of basal melting or the oceanographic processes that drive it and consequently our understanding of these interactions remains limited here we use in situ observations from the ross ice shelf to examine the oceanographic processes that drive basal ablation of the world s largest ice shelf we show that basal melt rates beneath a thin and structurally important part of the shelf are an order of magnitude higher than the shelf wide average this melting is strongly influenced by a seasonal inflow of solar heated surface water from the adjacent ross sea polynya that downwells into the ice shelf cavity nearly tripling basal melt rates during summer melting driven by this frequently overlooked process is expected to increase with predicted surface warming we infer that solar heat absorbed in ice front polynyas can make an important contribution to the present day mass balance of ice shelves and potentially impact their future stability high melt rates in a key location beneath the ross ice shelf result from a seasonal inflow of water heated in the ross sea polynya according to in situ observations

rapid disintegration of the wordie ice shelf in response to atmospheric warming the breaking up of ice shelves around the antarctic peninsula has been cited1 as a sign that a dangerous warming is beginning in antarctica here we present satellite images showing the disintegration of the wordie ice shelf which lies off the west coast of the antarctic peninsula fig 1 fracture either in the form of surface crevasses or rifts extending to the bottom of the ice shelf has been responsible for iceberg calving and weakening the central region of the ice shelf these fracture processes which led to retreat of the ice front were apparently enhanced by the presence of increased amounts of melt water resulting from a warming trend recorded in mean annual air temperatures in marguerite bay if this warming trend continues other nearby ice shelves on the antarctic peninsula may be at risk but substantial additional warming would be required before similar processes could initiate breakup of the ross and filchner ronne ice shelves which help stabilize the west antarctic ice sheet

the use of an outlier detecting method in time series of continuous daily measurements of underground water level and temperature in earthquake prediction investigation abstract continuous daily measurements of underground water level and temperature have been monitored in four selected shallow wells in a seismically active area close to thessaloniki greece the aim was to study the changes in the underground water level and temperature with respect to earthquakes occurring in the same area during 1 january 1988 to 31 december 1989 a graphical method has been applied to analyze the time series in order to detect outliers our results reveal that a strong correlation exists the earthquakes occurred in the area and the water level time series the correlation was found to be weak in the case of the water temperature time series most of the outliers found correspond to a time interval varying between 1 and 7 days before or after the earthquakes the magnitude of the underground water level change varies from 3 to 10 cm and that of temperature from 0 3 to 0 8 c the strongest outliers correlate to earthquakes of magnitude greater than 3 0 the software developed to detect outliers use immediate preceding observations in the time series of continuous daily measurements at the time of their occurrence this is very important in studying precursory phenomena of impending earthquakes

near surface environmentally forced changes in the ross ice shelf observed with ambient seismic noise author s chaput j aster r c mcgrath d baker m anthony r e gerstoft p bromirski p nyblade a stephen r a wiens d a das s b stevens l a

west antarctic ice sheet collapse charles r bentley perspectives 21 feb p 1077 1 suggests that a useful estimate of the probability of a west antarctic ice sheet collapse in the next 100 years can be obtained by assuming it to be a random event occurring once every 100 000 years he bases this view on results of a single

catastrophic ice shelf breakup as the source of heinrich event icebergs 1 heinrich layers of the glacial north atlantic record abrupt widespread iceberg rafting of detrital carbonate and other lithic material at the extreme cold culminations of bond climate cycles both internal glaciologic and external climate forcings have been proposed here we suggest an explanation for the iceberg release that encompasses external climate forcing on the basis of a new glaciological process recently witnessed along the antarctic peninsula rapid disintegrations of fringing ice shelves induced by climate controlled meltwater infilling of surface crevasses we postulate that peripheral ice shelves formed along the eastern canadian seaboard during extreme cold conditions would be vulnerable to sudden climate driven disintegration during any climate amelioration ice shelf disintegration then would be the source of heinrich event icebergs

breakup and conditions for stability of the northern larsen ice shelf antarctica the breakup of ice shelves has been widely regarded as an indicator of climate change1 with observations around the antarctic peninsula having shown a pattern of gradual retreat associated with regional atmospheric warming and increased summer melt and fracturing processes2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 the rapid collapse of the northernmost section of the larsen ice shelf larsen a over a few days in january 1995 indicated that after retreat beyond a critical limit ice shelves may disintegrate rapidly here we use a finite element numerical model that treats ice as a continuum without fracture10 to examine the breakup history2 between 1986 and 1997 of the two northern sections of larsen ice shelf larsen a and larsen b from which we establish stability criteria for ice shelves analysis of various ice shelf configurations reveals characteristic patterns in the strain rates near the ice front which we use to describe the stability of the ice shelf on larsen a only the initial and final ice front configurations show a stable pattern larsen b at present exhibits a stable pattern but if the ice front were to retreat by a further few kilometres it too is likely to enter an irreversible retreat phase

a tutorial on the use of control methods in ice sheet modeling control methods are recommended as an efficient means to estimate undetermined physical parameters and boundary conditions and in so doing to improve the fidelity of a given ice sheet flow model to specific ice sheet velocity observations to accomplish this task the underlying dynamics of the model are inverted this permits model tuning adjustments to be represented explicitly in terms of model observation misfit

numerical modelling and data assimilation of the larsen b ice shelf antarctic peninsula in this study the flow and rheology of pre collapse larsen b ice shelf are investigated by using a combination of flow modelling and data assimilation observed shelf velocities from satellite interferometry are used to constrain an ice shelf model by using a data assimilation technique based on the control method in particular the ice rheology field and the velocities at the inland shelf boundary are simultaneously optimized to get a modelled flow and stress field that is consistent with the observed flow the application to the larsen b ice shelf shows that a strong weakening of the ice in the shear zones mostly along the margins is necessary to fit the observed shelf flow this pattern of bands with weak ice is a very robust feature of the inversion whereas the ice rheology within the main shelf body is found to be not well constrained this suggests that these weak zones play a major role in the control of the flow of the larsen b ice shelf and may be the key to understanding the observed pre collapse thinning and acceleration of larsen b regarding the sensitivity of the stress field to rheology the consistency of the model with the observed flow seems crucial for any further analysis such as the application of fracture mechanics or perturbation model experiments

climatically induced retreat and collapse of northern larsen ice shelf antarctic peninsula the areal changes of the northern larsen ite shelf lis antarctic peninsula between march 1986 and march 1997 have been analyzed based on synthetic aperture radar images of the european remote sensing satellites ers 1 and ers 2 and on landsat images this analysis is complemented by data on ice motion and surface mass balance which have been obtained during several field campaigns since the early 1980s after a period of retreat coinciding with atmospheric warming and with decreasing net accumulation at the surface due to melt losses the two northernmost sections of lis disintegrated almost completely within a few days in january 1995 recent observations of the ice shelf section north of jason peninsula which is presently the northernmost section of lis show increased summer melt and intensification of the rifting processes probably causing accelerated retreat of this section in the near future the retreat and the disintegration event of lis indicate high sensitivity of ice shelves to prolonged perturbations of the mass balance

the retreat of jones ice shelf antarctic peninsula in recent decades several ice shelves along the antarctic peninsula have diminished in size as a result of climate warming using aerial photographic satellite and survey data we document a similar retreat of jones ice shelf which was another small ice shelf on the west coast of the antarctic peninsula this ice shelf was roughly stable between 1947 and 1969 but in the early 1970s it began to retreat and had completely disappeared by early 2003 jones ice shelf has two ice fronts only a few kilometres apart and its retreat provides a unique opportunity to examine how different ice fronts retreat when subjected to similar climate forcing we mapped the retreat of both the east and west ice fronts of jones ice shelf and found that although individual episodes of retreat may be related to particularly warm summers the overall progress of retreat of the two ice fronts has been rather different this suggests that in this case the course of retreat is controlled by the geometry of the embayment and location of pinning points as well as climatic events

ice shelf disintegration by plate bending and hydro fracture satellite observations and model results of the 2008 wilkins ice shelf break ups abstract satellite remote sensing observations of three break up events in 2008 for the wilkins ice shelf 28 february to 6 march 27 may to 31 may and 28 june to mid july provide unprecedented detail of ice shelf calving during rapid break up the observations reveal that the wilkins break ups occur through a distinctive type of shelf calving which we term disintegration as well as more typical rifting and calving here we focus on the disintegration process which is characterized by repeated rapid fracturing that creates narrow ice edge parallel blocks with subsequent block toppling and fragmentation forming an expanding iceberg and ice rubble mass we use these data to develop and test a model of floating ice plate disintegration in which ice plate bending stresses at the ice front arising from buoyancy forces can lead to runaway calving when free mobile water is available high resolution satellite images and laser altimetry of the first break up event provide details of fracture spacings ice thicknesses and plate bending profiles that agree well with our model predictions we suggest that surface or near surface meltwater is the main pre condition for disintegration and that hydro fracture is the main mechanism brine layers from near waterline brine infiltration can support a similar process but this is less effective unless regional ice stress patterns contribute to the net stress available at the crack tip for fracturing a combination of brine enhanced fracturing and changing internal net extensional stresses was the likely mechanism behind the latter two wilkins events

evidence of recent climatic warming on the eastern antarctic peninsula air temperatures at the stations marambio esperanza and matienzo have been analysed to investigate recent climate change on the eastern part of the antarctic peninsula the data are compared with the station orcadas on the south orkney islands the longest record available in antarctica and with faraday on the western coast of the peninsula though the interannual variability is comparatively high and the stations are located in different climatic regimes a pronounced warming trend shows up in all records at marambio a temperature increase of 1 5 c has been observed since the beginning of the record in 1971 this is of similar magnitude as the increase at the station faraday on the west coast with 2 5 c for the longer period since 1945 the steady retreat and collapse of the northern larsen ice shelf coincided with this warming trend of particular importance for the ice shelf mass balance in this region are the summer temperatures which show a statistically significant warming trend at the stations marambio and esperanza the representativity of the summer temperatures of marambio for northern larsen ice shelf is confirmed by intercomparison with the parallel measurements at matienzo which is located on the ice shelf

quantifying vulnerability of antarctic ice shelves to hydrofracture using microwave scattering properties abstract recent ice shelf disintegrations on the antarctic peninsula and subsequent increases in ice sheet mass loss have highlighted the importance of tracking ice shelf stability with respect to surface melt ponding and hydrofracture in this study we use active microwave scatterometry in time series to estimate melt season duration and winter backscatter levels as a proxy for relative concentration of refrozen ice lenses in antarctic ice shelf firn we demonstrate a physical relationship between melt days and firn ice backscatter using scatterometry and field data from greenland and apply the observed relationship to derive and map a vulnerability index for antarctica s ice shelves the index reveals that some remaining antarctic peninsula ice shelves have already reached a firn state that is vulnerable to hydrofracture we also show that the progression of an ice shelf towards vulnerability is affected by many factors such as surface mass balance internal stresses and ice shelf geometry

rapid collapse of northern larsen ice shelf antarctica in january 1995 4200 square kilometers of the northern larsen ice shelf antarctic peninsula broke away radar images from the ers 1 satellite complemented by field observations showed that the two northernmost sections of the ice shelf fractured and disintegrated almost completely within a few days this breakup followed a period of steady retreat that coincided with a regional trend of atmospheric warming the observations imply that after an ice shelf retreats beyond a critical limit it may collapse rapidly as a result of perturbated mass balance

feldspar 40 ar 39 ar dating of icdp paleovan cores abstract volcaniclastic fall deposits in icdp drilling cores from lake van turkey contain sodium rich sanidine and calcium rich anorthoclase which both comprise a variety of textural zoning and inclusions an age model records the lake s history and is based on climate stratigraphic correlations tephrostratigraphy paleomagnetics and earlier 40 ar 39 ar analyses stockhecke et al 2014b results from total fusion and stepwise heating 40 ar 39 ar analyses presented in this study allow for the comparison of radiometric constraints from texturally diversified feldspar and the multi proxy lacustrine age model and vice versa this study has investigated several grain size fractions of feldspar from 13 volcaniclastic units the feldspars show textural features that are visible in cathodoluminescence cl or back scattered electron bse images and can be subdivided into three dominant zoning types 1 compositional zoning 2 round pseudo oscillatory zoning and 3 resorbed and patchy zoning ginibre et al 2004 round pseudo oscillatory zoning records a sensitive alternation of fe and ca that also reflects resorption processes this is only visible in cl images compositional zoning reflects anticorrelated anorthite and orthoclase contents and is visible in bse eleven inverse isochron ages from total fusion and three from stepwise heating analyses fit the age model four experiments resulted in older inverse isochron ages that do not concur with the model within 2 uncertainties and that deviate from 1 ka to 17 ka minimum c and r type zoning are interpreted as representing growth in magma chamber cupolas as wall mushes or in narrow conduits persistent compositions of po type crystals and abundant surfaces recording dissolution features correspond to formation within a magma chamber c type zoning and r type zoning have revealed an irregular incorporation of melt and fluid inclusions these two types of zoning in feldspar are interpreted as preferentially contributing either heterogeneously distributed excess 40 ar or inherited 40 ar to the deviating 40 ar 39 ar ages that are discussed in this study

experimental fracture and mechanical properties of antarctic ice preliminary results an experimental study of the fracture mechanics and rheology of ice from the ronne ice shelf antarctica is currently being undertaken the apparent critical stress intensity factor or apparent fracture toughness k q for crack propagation has been measured using a three point bend method for inducing crack growth perpendicular to the axis of cylindrical ice core specimens tensile crack nucleation under applied uniaxial compressive stress has also been evaluated both methods have allowed a profile of ice elastic and fracture properties with depth through the ice shelf to be constructed preliminary results indicate that the measured elastic modulus increases with depth through the firn and upper meteoric ice before reaching a constant value in the deeper dense meteoric and basal marine ice the resistance to fracture as measured by changes in apparent fracture toughness and crack nucleation stress increases with depth right through the firn and meteoric ice layers a simple fracture mechanics model applied to the ronne ice shelf indicates that crevasses form from small surface cracks less than 40 cm deep which quickly grow to depths of 40 60m and then remain stable

monstars on glaciers le point isotropique des vitesses de deformation sur un glacier sont de type monstar citronetoile mais les iso lignes autour de lui peuvent etre soit elliptiques soit hyperboliques de plus le glacier contient des points isoles de pur cisaillement

fracture propagation and stability of ice shelves governed by ice shelf heterogeneity tabular iceberg calving and ice shelf retreat occurs after full thickness fractures known as rifts propagate across an ice shelf a quickly evolving rift signals a threat to the stability of larsen c the antarctic peninsula s largest ice shelf here we reveal the influence of ice shelf heterogeneity on the growth of this rift with implications that challenge existing notions of ice shelf stability most of the rift extension has occurred in bursts after overcoming the resistance of suture zones that bind together neighboring glacier inflows we model the stresses in the ice shelf to determine potential rift trajectories calving perturbations to ice flow will likely reach the grounding line the stability of larsen c may hinge on a single suture zone that stabilizes numerous upstream rifts elevated fracture toughness of suture zones may be the most important property that allows ice shelves to modulate antarctica s contribution to sea level rise

recent atmospheric warming and retreat of ice shelves on the antarctic peninsula in 1978 mercer1 discussed the probable effects of climate warming on the antarctic ice sheet predicting that one sign of a warming trend in this region would be the retreat of ice shelves on the antarctic peninsula analyses of 50 year meteorological records have since revealed atmospheric warming on the antarctic peninsula2 3 and a number of ice shelves have retreated4 8 here we present time series of observations of the areal extent of nine ice shelves on the antarctic peninsula showing that five northerly ones have retreated dramatically in the past fifty years while those further south show no clear trend comparison with airtemperature data shows that the pattern and magnitude of ice shelf retreat is consistent with the existence of an abrupt thermal limit on iceshelf viability the isotherm associated with this limit having been driven south by the atmospheric warming ice shelves therefore appear to be sensitive indicators of climate change

groundwater monitoring for earthquake prediction by an amateur network in japan since 1976 groundwater levels and the temperature of thermal water have been monitored in 100 wells distributed mostly in the southern kanto and tokai districts of japan in order to predict earthquakes good examples of groundwater precursors were recognized prior to the following destructive earthquakes the 1978 west off izu oshima earthquake m 7 0 the 1978 off miyagi earthquakes m 7 4 and the 1980 east off izu peninsula earthquake m 6 7 in the 1978 west off izu oshima earthquake groundwater levels and the japan meteorological agency jma volume strainmeters installed in the izu peninsula showed precursory changes at about the same time in the other cases however precursory behavior was observed only in water level and temperature monitoring empirical relations are given between earthquake magnitude and the epicentral distance of the farthest groundwater anomaly and between earthquake magnitude and the precursor time of groundwater

outburst flooding and the initiation of ice stream surges in response to climatic cooling a hypothesis abstract outburst flooding from subglacial reservoirs and associated surging of ice streams are caused by processes following climatic cooling that produce ice shelf grounding on proglacial sills trapping subglacial water according to an hypothesis presented here glaciers often advance into proglacial water bodies cooling may allow ice shelf formation and advance causing grounding on a proglacial sill trapping subglacial water ice shelf freeze on to the sill and development of a local reversal in ice air surface slope over the sill then are likely allowing ice thickening and water overpressurization if basal thawing then occurs as is likely an outburst flood and a surge may be triggered these processes may have been involved in heinrich events generation of antarctic subglacial lakes and meltwater scouring of some regions

anomalous water level changes and possible relation with earthquakes since late 1976 abandoned water wells have been monitored along the san andreas and san jacinto faults to detect water level changes which may be premonitory to earthquakes an m5 5 earthquake occurred 25 february 1980 within the san jacinto fault zone near anza the water level in a continuously recorded well in borrego valley 35 km from the epicenter rose 0 5 m and returned to its prior level during a four hour period beginning 88 hours before the earthquake the water level in this well had been remarkably steady compared to other wells being monitored another well in borrego valley showed a much smaller rise and fall in water level at the same time because these changes are unique for the long term records of these wells they may represent precursors to the earthquake several wells along the palmdale valyermo segment of the san andreas fault showed possibly anomalous long term water level changes which are not clearly related to rainfall between early 1979 and early 1980 water levels in six wells were 6 to 4 5 m higher and levels in two wells were about 3 m lower than would have been predicted based on the previous records the water level increases could have been the result of delayed response to seasonal rainfall following a long drought however it is interesting that the possibly anomalous water level changes first occurred at the same time as the reported changes in strain pattern from compression to expansion along the san andreas fault in the same area

global teleconnections in response to freshening over the antarctic ocean abstract in this paper coupled ocean atmosphere responses to freshening over the antarctic ocean are investigated in a fully coupled model with a series of sensitivity experiments in the model 1 0 sv 1 sv 106 m3 s 1 of freshwater flux is uniformly imposed over the antarctic ocean for 400 yr while the ocean and atmosphere remain fully coupled both locally and elsewhere the model explicitly demonstrates that a freshening of the antarctic ocean can induce a significant local cooling coupled with an intensification of the westerly winds and expansion of sea ice furthermore the cooling can extend to the entire southern extratropical and tropical oceans coupled with an intensification of southeasterly trades and the equatorial trade winds some modest warm anomalies also occur in the northern extratropical oceans forming a sharp interhemispheric sst contrast a series of sensitivity experiments are conducted to understand the mechanisms responsible for transmitting the southern high latitude cooling

understanding ice sheet mass balance progress in satellite altimetry and gravimetry satellite remote sensing has come to dominate the measurement of glacier and ice sheet change three independent methods now exist for assessing ice sheet mass balance and we focus on progress in two satellite altimetry icesat and gravimetry grace with improved spatial and temporal sampling and synergy with ice flow measurements both the mechanisms and causes changing mass balance can be investigated we present examples of mass losses due to widespread intensifying glacier dynamic thinning in northwest greenland but local ablation rates in the northeast that are unchanged for decades advances in grace processing reveal greenland net ice sheet mass loss continuing into 2010 at 19530 gt a 1 a similarly negative trend in the gulf of alaska has significant spatial and temporal variation that highlights the importance of intense summer melting here strong summer melt on the antarctic peninsula also precipitated recent ice shelf collapse and prompted rapid dynamic thinning of tributary glaciers at up to 70ma 1 thinning continued for years to decades after collapse and propagated far inland while understanding of the physical mechanisms of change continues to improve estimates of future behaviour and in particular the near future glacial sea level contribution still rely on projections from such observations we introduce the suite of new sensors that will monitor the ice sheets into the future