twenty first century warming of a large antarctic ice shelf cavity by a redirected coastal current the redirection of warm water under the filchner ronne ice shelf during the second half of this century could cause the ice shelf base to melt at a rate 20 times higher than at present warm ocean currents are known to erode ice shelves from below but changes in currents can be forced by many different mechanisms leading to uncertain outcomes this study highlights the vulnerability to climate change of a small antarctic coastal region which has potentially severe consequences for the mass balance of a large antarctic ice shelf hellmer et al use climate modelling to show that the projected loss of sea ice in the weddell sea east of the antarctic peninsula leads to an increase in wind stress which in turn accelerates a warm ocean current far underneath the vast filchner ronne ice shelf the authors predict that the increased warmth could increase melt by a factor of 20 with possible consequences for ice stream dynamics in the east antarctic ice sheet the antarctic ice sheet loses mass at its fringes bordering the southern ocean at this boundary warm circumpolar water can override the continental slope front reaching the grounding line1 2 through submarine glacial troughs and causing high rates of melting at the deep ice shelf bases3 4 the interplay between ocean currents and continental bathymetry is therefore likely to influence future rates of ice mass loss here we show that a redirection of the coastal current into the filchner trough and underneath the filchner ronne ice shelf during the second half of the twenty first century would lead to increased movement of warm waters into the deep southern ice shelf cavity water temperatures in the cavity would increase by more than 2 degrees celsius and boost average basal melting from 0 2 metres or 82 billion tonnes per year to almost 4 metres or 1 600 billion tonnes per year our results which are based on the output of a coupled ice ocean model forced by a range of atmospheric outputs from the hadcm35 climate model suggest that the changes would be caused primarily by an increase in ocean surface stress in the southeastern weddell sea due to thinning of the formerly consolidated sea ice cover the projected ice loss at the base of the filchner ronne ice shelf represents 80 per cent of the present antarctic surface mass balance6 thus the quantification of basal mass loss under changing climate conditions is important for projections regarding the dynamics of antarctic ice streams and ice shelves and global sea level rise

the role of lithospheric flexure in the landscape evolution of the wilkes subglacial basin and transantarctic mountains east antarctica reconstructions of the bedrock topography of antarctica since the eocene oligocene boundary ca 34 ma provide important constraints for modelling antarctic ice sheet evolution this is particularly important in regions where the bedrock lies below sea level since in these sectors the overlying ice sheet is thought to be most susceptible to past and future change here we use 3d flexural modelling to reconstruct the evolution of the topography of the wilkes subglacial basin wsb and transantarctic mountains tam in east antarctica we estimate the spatial distribution of glacial erosion beneath the east antarctic ice sheet and restore this material to the topography which is also adjusted for associated flexural isostatic responses we independently constrain our post 34 ma erosion estimates using offshore sediment stratigraphy interpretations our reconstructions provide a better defined topographic boundary condition for modelling early east antarctic ice sheet history we show that the majority of glacial erosion and landscape evolution occurred prior to 14 ma which we interpret to reflect more dynamic and erosive early ice sheet behaviour in addition we use closely spaced 2d flexural models to test previously proposed hypotheses for a flexural origin of the tam and wsb the pre 34 ma topography shows lateral variations along the length of the tam and wsb that cannot be explained by uniform flexure along the front of the tam we show that some of these variations may be explained by additional flexural uplift along the south western flank of the wsb and the rennick graben in northern victoria land

testing the sensitivity of the east antarctic ice sheet to southern ocean dynamics past changes and future implications the stability of antarctic ice sheets and their potential contribution to sea level under projected future warming remains highly uncertain the last interglacial 135 000 116 000 years ago provides a potential analogue with global temperatures 2uc higher and rates of sea level rise 5 6m ka 1 leading to sea levels 6 6 9 4m higher than present the source s of this sea level rise remain fiercely debated here we report a series of independent model simulations exploring the effects of migrating southern hemisphere westerlies shws on southern ocean circulation and antarctic ice sheet dynamics we suggest that southerly shifts in winds may have significantly impacted the sub polar gyres inducing pervasive warming 0 2 0 8uc in the upper 1200m adjacent to sectors of the east antarctic ice sheet eais which due to their geometries and connectivity to the southern ocean are highly sensitive to ocean forcing we conclude that the eais potentially made a substantial hitherto unsuspected contribution to interglacial sea levels and given 21st century projections in the southern annular mode and associated shw migration we highlight how pervasive circum antarctic warming may threaten eais stability copyright 2013 john wiley sons ltd

co2 over the past 5 million years continuous simulation and new δ11b based proxy data during the past five million yrs benthic 18o records indicate a large range of climates from warmer than today during the pliocene warm period to considerably colder during glacials antarctic ice cores have revealed pleistocene glacial interglacial co2 variability of 60 100 ppm while sea level fluctuations of typically 125 m are documented by proxy data however in the pre ice core period co2 and sea level proxy data are scarce and there is disagreement between different proxies and different records of the same proxy this hampers comprehensive understanding of the long term relations between co2 sea level and climate here we drive a coupled climate ice sheet model over the past five million years inversely forced by a stacked benthic 18o record we obtain continuous simulations of benthic 18o sea level and co2 that are mutually consistent our model shows co2 concentrations of 300 to 470 ppm during the early pliocene furthermore we simulate strong co2 variability during the pliocene and early pleistocene these features are broadly supported by existing and new 11b based proxy co2 data but less by alkenone based records the simulated concentrations and variations therein are larger than expected from global mean temperature changes our findings thus suggest a smaller earth system sensitivity than previously thought this is explained by a more restricted role of land ice variability in the pliocene the largest uncertainty in our simulation arises from the mass balance formulation of east antarctica which governs the variability in sea level but only modestly affects the modeled co2 concentrations

a physically based calving model applied to marine outlet glaciers and implications for the glacier dynamics we present results from numerical ice flow models that include calving criteria based on penetration of surface and basal crevasses which in turn is a function of longitudinal strain rates near the glacier front the position of the calving front is defined as the point where either 1 surface crevasses reach the waterline model cdw or 2 surface and basal crevasses penetrate the full thickness of the glacier model cd for comparison with previous studies results are also presented for a height above buoyancy calving model qualitatively both models cdw and cd produce similar behaviour unlike previous models for calving the new calving criteria are applicable to both grounded termini and floating ice shelves and tongues the numerical ice flow model is applied to an idealized geometry characteristic of marine outlet glaciers results indicate that grounding line dynamics are less sensitive to basal topography than previously suggested stable grounding line positions can be obtained even on a reverse bed slope with or without floating termini the proposed calving criteria also allow calving losses to be linked to surface melt and therefore climate in contrast to previous studies in which calving rate or position of the terminus is linked to local water depth the new calving criterion is able to produce seasonal cycles of retreat and advance as observed for greenland marine outlet glaciers the contrasting dynamical behaviour and stability found for different calving models suggests that a realistic parameterization for the process of calving is crucial for any predictions of marine outlet glacier change

orbital forcing of the east antarctic ice sheet during the pliocene and early pleistocene the pliocene and early pleistocene between 5 3 and 0 8 million years ago span a transition from a global climate state that was 2 3 c warmer than present with limited ice sheets in the northern hemisphere to one that was characterized by continental scale glaciations at both poles growth and decay of these ice sheets was paced by variations in the earth s orbit around the sun however the nature of the influence of orbital forcing on the ice sheets is unclear particularly in light of the absence of a strong 20 000 year precession signal in geologic records of global ice volume and sea level here we present a record of the rate of accumulation of iceberg rafted debris oshore from the east antarctic ice sheet adjacent to the wilkes subglacial basin between 4 3 and 2 2 million years ago we infer that maximum iceberg debris accumulation is associated with the enhanced calving of icebergs during ice sheet margin retreat in the warmer part of the record between 4 3 and 3 5 million years ago spectral analyses show a dominant periodicity of about 40 000 years subsequently the powers of the 100 000 year and 20 000 year signals strengthen we suggest that as the southern ocean cooled between 3 5 and 2 5 million years ago the development of a perennial sea ice field limited the oceanic forcing of the ice sheet after this threshold was crossed substantial retreat of the east antarctic ice sheet occurred only during austral summer insolation maxima as controlled by the precession cycle

melt under cutting and buoyancy driven calving from tidewater glaciers new insights from discrete element and continuum model simulations the simple calving laws currently used in ice sheet models do not adequately reflect the complexity and diversity of calving processes to be effective calving laws must be grounded in a sound understanding of how calving actually works here we develop a new strategy for formulating calving laws using a the helsinki discrete element model hidem to explicitly model fracture and calving processes and b the continuum model elmer ice to identify critical stress states associated with hidem calving events a range of observed calving processes emerges spontaneously from hidem in response to variations in ice front buoyancy and the size of subaqueous undercuts calving driven by buoyancy and melt under cutting is under predicted by existing calving laws but we show that the location and magnitude of hidem calving events can be predicted in elmer ice from characteristic stress patterns our results open the way to developing calving laws that properly reflect the diversity of calving processes and provide a framework for a unified theory of the calving process continuum

marked decline in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations during the paleogene the relation between the partial pressure of atmospheric carbon dioxide pco2 and paleogene climate is poorly resolved we used stable carbon isotopic values of di unsaturated alkenones extracted from deep sea cores to reconstruct pco2 from the middle eocene to the late oligocene approximately 45 to 25 million years ago our results demonstrate that pco2 ranged between 1000 to 1500 parts per million by volume in the middle to late eocene then decreased in several steps during the oligocene and reached modern levels by the latest oligocene the fall in pco2 likely allowed for a critical expansion of ice sheets on antarctica and promoted conditions that forced the onset of terrestrial c4 photosynthesis

the evolution of the patagonian ice sheet from 35 ka to the present day patice abstract we present patice a gis database of patagonian glacial geomorphology and recalibrated chronological data patice includes 58 823 landforms and 1 669 geochronological ages and extends from 38 s to 55 s in southern south america we use these data to generate new empirical reconstructions of the patagonian ice sheet pis and subsequent ice masses and ice dammed palaeolakes at 35 ka 30 ka 25 ka 20 ka 15 ka 13 ka synchronous with the antarctic cold reversal 10 ka 5 ka 0 2 ka and 2011 ad at 35 ka the pis covered of 492 6 x103 km2 had a sea level equivalent of 1 496 mm was 350 km wide and 2090 km long and was grounded on the pacific continental shelf edge outlet glacier lobes remained topographically confined and the largest generated the suites of subglacial streamlined bedforms characteristic of ice streams the pis reached its maximum extent by 33 28 ka from 38 s to 48 s and earlier around 47 ka from 48 s southwards net retreat from maximum positions began by 25 ka with ice marginal stabilisation then at 21 18 ka which was then followed by rapid irreversible deglaciation by 15 ka the pis had separated into disparate ice masses draining into large ice dammed lakes along the eastern margin which strongly influenced rates of recession glacial readvances or stabilisations occurred at least at 14 13 ka 11 ka 6 5 ka 2 1 ka and 0 5 0 2 ka we suggest that 20th century glacial recession a 1 is occurring faster than at any time documented during the holocene

kinematic constraints on glacier contributions to 21st century sea level rise on the basis of climate modeling and analogies with past conditions the potential for multimeter increases in sea level by the end of the 21st century has been proposed we consider glaciological conditions required for large sea level rise to occur by 2100 and conclude that increases in excess of 2 meters are physically untenable we find that a total sea level rise of about 2 meters by 2100 could occur under physically possible glaciological conditions but only if all variables are quickly accelerated to extremely high limits more plausible but still accelerated conditions lead to total sea level rise by 2100 of about 0 8 meter these roughly constrained scenarios provide a most likely starting point for refinements in sea level forecasts that include ice flow dynamics

modeling the evolution of antarctic ice sheet over the last 420 000 years implications for altitude changes in the vostok region a new thermomechanical three dimensional model designed to simulate the evolution of the antarctic ice sheet over long time periods is presented this model incorporates the various types of ice flow found in antarctica relatively slow inland ice flow that is essentially due to ice deformation fast ice flow in the regions with ice streams and ice shelf flow by coupling these three types of flow it is possible to predict grounding line migration simulations covering four glacial interglacial cycles have been conducted by forcing this model with a temperature record from vostok and a sea level record from marine cores our findings indicate that grounding line migration induced by sea level changes is the primary factor governing the evolution of the antarctic ice volume on the other hand the altitude of the ice sheet surface at vostok is driven by accumulation rate variations the amplitude of the altitude change does not exceed 150 m and is very similar for all the sites located on the antarctic plateau

effect of orbital scale climate cycling and meltwater drainage on ice sheet grounding line migration 1 ice shelf response to climate cycling introduces hysteretic behavior in outlet glaciers with the evolution of meltwater drainage networks enhancing this effect the 2002 collapse of the larsen b ice shelf one of the floating extensions formed from glaciers flowing off the antarctic peninsula into the weddell sea followed the development of widespread poorly drained surface melt ponds during the atypical warmth of the 2001 2002 summer melt season yet for at least the past half century the floating termini of outlet glaciers in greenland did not collapse despite being exposed to summer mean temperatures and melt rates that far exceed those recorded in 2001 2002 on the antarctic peninsula we suggest that this paradox can be explained by the advection of well developed englacial drainage networks within greenland s extensive ablation zone the efficiency of this plumbing system limits meltwater ponding within crevasses and the subsequent ice shelf failure observed on the antarctic peninsula whether progressive or abrupt ice shelf removal leads to near synchronous glacier retreat conversely glaciation of fjords is delayed during ice shelf formation ultimately the relatively rapid loss and gradual establishment of ice shelf buttressing amid climate cycling leads to an asymmetric response in outlet glacier dynamics this asymmetry may have implications for the future of existing and recently calved ice shelves eustatic sea level and the hysteretic behavior of ice sheets

collapse of polar ice sheets during the stage 11 interglacial the magnitude of sea level rise during marine isotope stage 11 about 400 000 years ago is shown to have been probably only 6 to 13 metres in contrast to some earlier estimates of up to 20 metres the ice sheets in greenland and west antarctica are known to be susceptible to climate warming and both are losing mass how the east antarctic ice sheet will respond to warming is less clear recent evidence from shoreline features in bermuda and the bahamas suggested that during marine isotope stage 11 a period of warming that occurred about 400 000 years ago the sea level was 20 metres higher than it is today which pointed to significant melting of the east antarctic ice sheet now an estimate that takes into account post glacial crustal subsidence of the shoreline sites during an anomalously long interglacial period puts the sea level during stage 11 at 6 13 metres higher than today that can be explained by the collapse of the greenland and west antarctic ice sheets with only a small contribution from the east antarctic ice sheet contentious observations of pleistocene shoreline features on the tectonically stable islands of bermuda and the bahamas have suggested that sea level about 400 000 years ago was more than 20 metres higher than it is today1 2 3 4 geochronologic and geomorphic evidence indicates that these features formed during interglacial marine isotope stage mis 11 an unusually long interval of warmth during the ice age1 2 3 4 previous work has advanced two divergent hypotheses for these shoreline features first significant melting of the east antarctic ice sheet in addition to the collapse of the west antarctic ice sheet and the greenland ice sheet1 2 3 or second emplacement by a mega tsunami during mis 11 ref 4 5 here we show that the elevations of these features are corrected downwards by 10 metres when we account for post glacial crustal subsidence of these sites over the course of the anomalously long interglacial on the basis of this correction we estimate that eustatic sea level rose to 6 13 m above the present day value in the second half of mis 11 this suggests that both the greenland ice sheet and the west antarctic ice sheet collapsed during the protracted warm period while changes in the volume of the east antarctic ice sheet were relatively minor thereby resolving the long standing controversy over the stability of the east antarctic ice sheet during mis 11

buoyant flexure and basal crevassing in dynamic mass loss at helheim glacier despite the role that calving plays in greenland mass loss the mechanisms of calving are poorly constrained observations of greenland s helheim glacier suggest that buoyant flexure at the glacier terminus leads to the propagation of basal crevasses and iceberg calving

geology mineralogy and stable isotope geochemistry of the kabwe carbonate hosted pb zn deposit central zambia abstract the carbonate hosted kabwe pb zn deposit central zambia has produced at least 2 6 mt of zn and pb metal as well as minor amounts of v cd ag and cu the deposit consists of four main epigenetic pipe like orebodies structurally controlled along ne sw faults sphalerite galena pyrite minor chalcopyrite and accessory ge sulphides of briartite and renierite constitute the primary ore mineral assemblage cores of massive sulphide orebodies are surrounded by oxide zones of silicate ore willemite and mineralized jasperoid that consists largely of quartz willemite cerussite smithsonite goethite and hematite as well as numerous other secondary minerals including vanadates phosphates and carbonates of zn pb v and cu galena sphalerite and pyrite from the pb zn rich massive orebodies have homogeneous negative sulphur isotope ratios with mean 34 s cdt permil values of 17 75 0 28 1 16 54 0 0 27 and 15 82 0 25 respectively the zn rich and pb poor no 2 orebody shows slightly heavier ratios of 11 70 0 5 34 s for sphalerite and of 11 91 0 71 34 s for pyrite the negative sulphur isotope ratios are considered to be typical of sedimentary sulphides produced through bacterial reduction of seawater sulphate and suggest a sedimentary source for the sulphur carbon and oxygen isotope ratios of the host dolomite have mean 13 c pdb and 18 o smow values of 2 89 and 27 68 respectively which are typical of marine carbonates the oxygen isotope ratios of dolomite correlate negatively to the sio 2 content introduced during silicification of the host dolomite the depletion in 18 o in dolomite indicates high temperature fluid rock interaction involving a silica and 18 o rich hydrothermal solution two types of secondary fluid inclusions in dolomite both of which are thought to be related to ore deposition indicate temperatures of ore deposition in the range of 257 to 385 and 98 to 178 c respectively the high temperature fluid inclusions contain liquid vapour solid phases and have salinities of 15 to 31 eq wt nacl whereas the low temperature inclusions consist of liquid vapour with a salinity of 11 5 eq wt nacl fluid transport may have been caused by tectonic movements associated with the early stages of the pan african lufilian orogeny whereas ore deposition within favourable structures occurred due to changes in pressure temperature and ph in the ore solution during metasomatic replacement of the host dolomite the termination of the kabwe orebodies at the mine club fault zone and observed deformation textures of the ore sulphides as well as analysis of joint structures in the host dolomite indicate that ore emplacement occurred prior to the latest deformation phase of the neoproterozoic lufilian orogeny

ice sheet collapse following a prolonged period of stable sea level during the last interglacial sea level during the last interglacial period reached a peak of between 5 and 9 m above the present day level a detailed reconstruction of sea level and isostatic rebound from western australia indicates a prolonged period of sea level stability at 3 4 m above present followed by an abrupt sea level rise of 5 6 m

constructing improved decadal records of antarctic ice shelf height change from multiple satellite radar altimeters abstract antarctica s ice shelves the floating extensions of the ice sheet exert an important dynamic constraint on the flow of ice from the grounded ice sheet to the ocean and therefore on changes in global sea level thinning of an ice shelf reduces its ability to restrain the ice discharge from the grounded ice sheet however our understanding of how ice shelf processes couple ice sheet changes to climate variability is still rudimentary in part this is due to the brevity and low temporal resolution of surveys of ice shelf thickness relative to the broad range of time scales on which ice sheet mass fluctuates here we present improved procedures to construct 18 year 1994 2012 time series of antarctic ice shelf surface height at high spatial resolution 30 km by merging data from three overlapping satellite radar altimeter missions ers 1 ers 2 and envisat we apply an averaging scheme to enhance the signal to noise ratio of height changes over the floating ice shelves and extract low order polynomial trends using a robust approach regularized regression with cross validation that accounts for both bias and variance in the fit we construct formal confidence intervals by bootstrap resampling of the residuals of the fit the largest source of height error arises from the interaction of the radar signal with the snow and firn surface on annual time scales changes in surface and sub surface scattering and radar penetration lead to apparent height changes that are larger than the true surface height change arising from densification our 18 year time series of surface height provide an insight into how ice shelves respond to the changing atmospheric and oceanic conditions our methods could also be applied to grounded portions of the ice sheets both in antarctica and greenland

eemian interglacial reconstructed from a greenland folded ice core efforts to extract a greenland ice core with a complete record of the eemian interglacial 130 000 to 115 000 years ago have until now been unsuccessful the response of the greenland ice sheet to the warmer than present climate of the eemian has thus remained unclear here we present the new north greenland eemian ice drilling neem ice core and show only a modest ice sheet response to the strong warming in the early eemian we reconstructed the eemian record from folded ice using globally homogeneous parameters known from dated greenland and antarctic ice core records on the basis of water stable isotopes neem surface temperatures after the onset of the eemian 126 000 years ago peaked at 8 4 degrees celsius above the mean of the past millennium followed by a gradual cooling that was probably driven by the decreasing summer insolation between 128 000 and 122 000 years ago the thickness of the northwest greenland ice sheet decreased by 400 250 metres reaching surface elevations 122 000 years ago of 130 300 metres lower than the present extensive surface melt occurred at the neem site during the eemian a phenomenon witnessed when melt layers formed again at neem during the exceptional heat of july 2012 with additional warming surface melt might become more common in the future

calving processes and the dynamics of calving glaciers abstract calving of icebergs is an important component of mass loss from the polar ice sheets and glaciers in many parts of the world calving rates can increase dramatically in response to increases in velocity and or retreat of the glacier margin with important implications for sea level change despite their importance calving and related dynamic processes are poorly represented in the current generation of ice sheet models this is largely because understanding the calving problem involves several other long standing problems in glaciology combined with the difficulties and dangers of field data collection in this paper we systematically review different aspects of the calving problem and outline a new framework for representing calving processes in ice sheet models we define a hierarchy of calving processes to distinguish those that exert a fundamental control on the position of the ice margin from more localised processes responsible for individual calving events the first order control on calving is the strain rate arising from spatial variations in velocity particularly sliding speed which determines the location and depth of surface crevasses superimposed on this first order process are second order processes that can further erode the ice margin these include fracture propagation in response to local stress imbalances in the immediate vicinity of the glacier front undercutting of the glacier terminus by melting at or below the waterline and bending at the junction between grounded and buoyant parts of an ice tongue calving of projecting submerged ice feet can be regarded as a third order process because it is paced by first or second order calving above the waterline first order calving can be represented in glacier models using a calving criterion based on crevasse depth which is a function of longitudinal strain rate modelling changes in terminus position and calving rates thus reduces to the problem of determining the ice geometry and velocity distribution realistic solutions to the problem of modelling ice flow therefore depend critically on an appropriate choice of sliding law models that assume that basal velocities are controlled by basal drag can replicate much of the observed behaviour of calving glaciers with grounded termini but an important limitation is that they cannot be used to model floating glacier termini or ice shelves alternative sliding laws that parameterise drag from the glacier margins provide more flexible and robust ways of representing calving in ice sheet models such models can explain a remarkable range of observed phenomena within a simple unifying framework including downglacier increases in velocity and strain rates where basal and or lateral drag diminishes flow acceleration in response to thinning through time the tendency for glaciers to stabilise at pinning points in relatively shallow water or fjord narrowings the constraints on ice shelf stability and the contrasts in calving rates between tidewater and freshwater calving glaciers many unresolved issues remain however including the role played by the removal of backstress in the acceleration of retreating calving glaciers and the controls on melting at and below the waterline

potential antarctic ice sheet retreat driven by hydrofracturing and ice cliff failure abstract geological data indicate that global mean sea level has fluctuated on 103 to 106 yr time scales during the last 25 million years at times reaching 20 m or more above modern if correct this implies substantial variations in the size of the east antarctic ice sheet eais however most climate and ice sheet models have not been able to simulate significant eais retreat from continental size given that atmospheric co2 levels were relatively low throughout this period here we use a continental ice sheet model to show that mechanisms based on recent observations and analysis have the potential to resolve this model data conflict in response to atmospheric and ocean temperatures typical of past warm periods floating ice shelves may be drastically reduced or removed completely by increased oceanic melting and by hydrofracturing due to surface melt draining into crevasses ice at deep grounding lines may be weakened by hydrofracturing and reduced buttressing and may fail structurally if stresses exceed the ice yield strength producing rapid retreat incorporating these mechanisms in our ice sheet model accelerates the expected collapse of the west antarctic ice sheet to decadal time scales and also causes retreat into major east antarctic subglacial basins producing 17 m global sea level rise within a few thousand years the mechanisms are highly parameterized and should be tested by further process studies but if accurate they offer one explanation for past sea level high stands and suggest that antarctica may be more vulnerable to warm climates than in most previous studies

breakup of the larsen b ice shelf triggered by chain reaction drainage of supraglacial lakes this research is supported by the u s national science foundation under grant geop ant 0944248 awarded to d r m and grants ant 0838811 and arc 0934534 awarded to o v s

antarctic ice shelf potentially stabilized by export of meltwater in surface river on the nansen ice shelf in antarctica a surface river that terminates in a waterfall can drain the ice shelf s entire annual meltwater in just one week potentially preventing the meltwater from hastening the catastrophic collapse of the shelf the collapse of ice shelves can be hastened by surface meltwater that can seep into crevasses and refreeze causing hydrofracturing such a mechanism was observed in the collapse of the larsen b ice shelf on the antarctic peninsula robin bell et al show that in the nansen ice shelf antarctica a surface river has been in operation for over a century the river terminates in a waterfall that can drain all of the surface meltwater produced annually by the ice shelf in one week thus for the nansen it seems that this surface drainage mechanism might be preventing meltwater from destabilizing the ice shelf it isn t clear at present why meltwater is retained in some systems and drained in others but the finding suggests that meltwater may not be a universally destructive force elsewhere in this issue jonathan kingslake et al report on the extent of meltwater across antarctica and find that surface drainage systems have existed for decades as far as 85 s meltwater stored in ponds1 and crevasses can weaken and fracture ice shelves triggering their rapid disintegration2 this ice shelf collapse results in an increased flux of ice from adjacent glaciers3 and ice streams thereby raising sea level globally4 however surface rivers forming on ice shelves could potentially export stored meltwater and prevent its destructive effects here we present evidence for persistent active drainage networks interconnected streams ponds and rivers on the nansen ice shelf in antarctica that export a large fraction of the ice shelf s meltwater into the ocean we find that active drainage has exported water off the ice surface through waterfalls and dolines for more than a century the surface river terminates in a 130 metre wide waterfall that can export the entire annual surface melt over the course of seven days during warmer melt seasons these drainage networks adapt to changing environmental conditions by remaining active for longer and exporting more water similar networks are present on the ice shelf in front of petermann glacier greenland but other systems such as on the larsen c and amery ice shelves retain surface water at present the underlying reasons for export versus retention remain unclear nonetheless our results suggest that in a future warming climate surface rivers could export melt off the large ice shelves surrounding antarctica contrary to present antarctic ice sheet models1 which assume that meltwater is stored on the ice surface where it triggers ice shelf disintegration

ice melange dynamics and implications for terminus stability jakobshavn isbrae greenland 1 we used time lapse imagery seismic and audio recordings iceberg and glacier velocities ocean wave measurements and simple theoretical considerations to investigate the interactions between jakobshavn isbrae and its proglacial ice melange the melange behaves as a weak granular ice shelf whose rheology varies seasonally sea ice growth in winter stiffens the melange matrix by binding iceberg clasts together ultimately preventing the calving of full glacier thickness icebergs the dominant style of calving and enabling a several kilometer terminus advance each summer the melange weakens and the terminus retreats the melange remains strong enough however to be largely unaffected by ocean currents except during calving events and to influence the timing and sequence of calving events furthermore motion of the melange is highly episodic between calving events including the entire winter it is pushed down fjord by the advancing terminus at 40 m d 1 whereas during calving events it can move in excess of 50 103 m d 1 for more than 10 min by influencing the timing of calving events the melange contributes to the glacier s several kilometer seasonal advance and retreat the associated geometric changes of the terminus area affect glacier flow furthermore a force balance analysis shows that large scale calving is only possible from a terminus that is near floatation especially in the presence of a resistive ice melange the net annual retreat of the glacier is therefore limited by its proximity to floatation potentially providing a physical mechanism for a previously described near floatation criterion for calving

future sea level rise due to projected ocean warming beneath the filchner ronne ice shelf a coupled model study a general ocean circulation model is coupled with a 3d thermodynamical ice sheet shelf model to simulate the response of the filchner ronne ice shelf fris antarctica and coastal parts of its catchment basin to a postulated inflow of warm deep water into the ice shelf cavity on a 1000 yr timescale prescribed ocean warming based on climate projections enters the ice shelf cavity in the up to 1500 m deep filchner trough and penetrates deep into the sub ice cavity increasing basal melt rates induce geometry changes of the cavity which in turn have an impact on the ocean circulation and therefore the modelled melt rates highest melt rates of about 20 m yr 1 follow the up to 180 km retreating grounding line basal mass loss reaches about 250 km3 yr 1 doubling the present day value the most vulnerable areas below the fris are the bailey ice stream and the area between the institute and moeller ice streams where the increased melting accounts for about 80 km of the modelled grounding line retreat on the backward sloping bedrock the potential additional contribution to the eustatic sea level rise due to the grounded ice loss simulated in an ensemble approach against a transient control experiment is about 0 05 mm yr 1 during the first 500 yr and about 0 17 mm yr 1 thereafter

evidence for iceberg armadas from east antarctica in the southern ocean during the late miocene and early pliocene abstract sediments from ocean drilling program site 1165 in the indian ocean sector of the southern ocean off prydz bay contain a series of layers that are rich in ice rafted debris ird here we present evidence that ird rich layers at site 1165 at 7 4 8 and 3 5 ma record short lived massive discharges of icebergs from wilkes land and adelie land more than 1500 kilometers to the east of the depositional site this distant source of icebergs is clearly defined by the presence of ird hornblende grains with 40ar 39ar ages of 1200 1100 ma and 1550 1500 ma ages that are not found on the east antarctic continent in locations closer to site 1165 this observation requires enormous amounts of detritus carrying drifting icebergs most likely in the form of large icebergs these events probably reflect destabilization surge and break up of ice streams on the wilkes land and adelie land margins of the east antarctic ice sheet in the vicinity of the low lying aurora and wilkes basins they occurred under warming conditions but each coast seems to have produced ice rafting events independently at different times the data presented here constitute the first evidence of far traveled icebergs from specific source areas around the east antarctic perimeter launch of these icebergs may have happened during quite dramatic events perhaps analogous to heinrich events in the north atlantic

rapid cenozoic glaciation of antarctica induced by declining atmospheric co2 the sudden widespread glaciation of antarctica and the associated shift towards colder temperatures at the eocene oligocene boundary 34 million years ago refs 1 4 is one of the most fundamental reorganizations of global climate known in the geologic record the glaciation of antarctica has hitherto been thought to result from the tectonic opening of southern ocean gateways which enabled the formation of the antarctic circumpolar current and the subsequent thermal isolation of the antarctic continent5 here we simulate the glacial inception and early growth of the east antarctic ice sheet using a general circulation model with coupled components for atmosphere ocean ice sheet and sediment and which incorporates palaeogeography greenhouse gas changing orbital parameters and varying ocean heat transport in our model declining cenozoic co2 first leads to the formation of small highly dynamic ice caps on high antarctic plateaux at a later time a co2 threshold is crossed initiating ice sheet height mass balance feedbacks that cause the ice caps to expand rapidly with large orbital variations eventually coalescing into a continental scale east antarctic ice sheet according to our simulation the opening of southern ocean gateways plays a secondary role in this transition relative to co2 concentration

tectonic evolution of petroleum systems within the onshore llanos basin insights on the presence of orinoco heavy oil analogs in colombia and a comparison with other heavy oil provinces worldwide economic accumulations of hydrocarbons in the onshore llanos basin of colombia are characterized by a central zone casanare province with greater than 20 api gravity oils and a southern province with biodegraded less than 15 api gravity oils to date no conceptual model successfully explains this spatial zonation in this paper we employ multiple one dimensional time temperature models to map the kitchens for three different source rocks and compare maturity levels through the cenozoic with the presence or absence of reservoir seal overburden and traps in paleogeographic maps of the llanos basin we find that the llanos basin cenozoic petroleum migration and charge may have been governed by a sedimentary structural evolution tied to the adjacent orogenic belt in which 1 paleogene stratigraphic traps developed in the south as favored by a more segmented basement and potentially transpressional stresses 2 a subsequent neogene phase with more pervasive east dipping low displacement normal fault traps was discovered and 3 a final pliocene present day phase of contractional traps was found in the easternmost foothill areas when compared with the evolution of several potential kitchens we suggest that upper cretaceous rocks from the eastern cordillera are the primary hydrocarbon source in the zone of heavy biodegraded oils to the south whereas lower cretaceous and selected terrigenous upper cretaceous source rocks are largely responsible for the younger neogene contractional traps of the foothills this evolutionary pattern for the llanos basin favors the presence of smaller but numerous hydrocarbon accumulations rather than the broader zones of heavy oils as found in the orinoco belt of venezuela

ocean temperature thresholds for last interglacial west antarctic ice sheet collapse the west antarctic ice sheet wais is considered the major contributor to global sea level rise in the last interglacial lig and potentially in the future exposed fossil reef terraces suggest sea levels in excess of 7 meters in the last warm era of which probably not much more than 2 meters are considered to originate from melting of the greenland ice sheet we simulate the evolution of the antarctic ice sheet during the lig with a 3d thermomechanical ice sheet model forced by an atmosphere ocean general circulation model aogcm our results show that high lig sea levels cannot be reproduced with the atmosphere ocean forcing delivered by current aogcms however when taking reconstructed southern ocean temperature anomalies of several degrees sensitivity studies indicate a southern ocean temperature anomaly threshold for total wais collapse of 2 3 c accounting for a sea level rise of 3 4 meters during the lig potential future antarctic ice sheet dynamics range from a moderate retreat to a complete collapse depending on rate and amplitude of warming

dynamic behaviour of the east antarctic ice sheet during pliocene warmth warm intervals within the pliocene epoch 5 33 2 58 million years ago were characterized by global temperatures comparable to those predicted for the end of this century1 and atmospheric co2 concentrations similar to today2 3 4 estimates for global sea level highstands during these times5 imply possible retreat of the east antarctic ice sheet but ice proximal evidence from the antarctic margin is scarce here we present new data from pliocene marine sediments recovered offshore of adelie land east antarctica that reveal dynamic behaviour of the east antarctic ice sheet in the vicinity of the low lying wilkes subglacial basin during times of past climatic warmth sedimentary sequences deposited between 5 3 and 3 3 million years ago indicate increases in southern ocean surface water productivity associated with elevated circum antarctic temperatures the geochemical provenance of detrital material deposited during these warm intervals suggests active erosion of continental bedrock from within the wilkes subglacial basin an area today buried beneath the east antarctic ice sheet we interpret this erosion to be associated with retreat of the ice sheet margin several hundreds of kilometres inland and conclude that the east antarctic ice sheet was sensitive to climatic warmth during the pliocene

buckling rate and overhang development at a calving face using the finite element we have modeled the stress field near the calv ing face of an idealized tidewater glacier under a variety of assumptions about submarine calving face height subaerial calving face height and ice rheology these simulations all suggest that a speed maximum should be present at the calving face near the waterline in experiments without crevassing the decrease in horizontal velocity above this maximum culminates in a zone of longitudinal compression at the surface somewhat up glacier from the face this zone of compression appears to be a consequence of the non linear rheology of ice it disappears when a linear rheology is assumed explorations of the near surface stress field indicate that when pervasive crevassing of the surface ice is accounted for in the simulations by rheological softening the zone of compressive strain rates does not devel op variations in the pattern of horizontal velocity with glacier thickness support the con tention that calving rates should increase with water depth at the calving face in addition the height of the subaerial calving face may have an importance that is not visible in current field data owing to the lack of variation in height of such faces in nature glaciers with lower calving faces may not have sufficient tensile stress to calve actively while ten sile stresses in simulated higher faces are sufficiently high that such faces will be unlikely to build in nature

the mid pliocene sea level conundrum glacial isostasy eustasy and dynamic topography abstract determining eustatic sea level during the mid pliocene warm period 3 3 to 2 9 ma has been a central but elusive goal in the study of past warm climates estimates of eustatic sea level based on geologic data span a broad range variation that we now recognize is due in part to geographically varying post depositional displacement caused by glacial isostatic adjustment and dynamic topography in this study we combine field observations and glacial isostatic adjustment modeling to estimate the dynamic topography signal in three areas that are important to paleo sea level studies of the mid pliocene warm period south africa west australia and southeastern united states we show that dynamic topography played a significant role in the post depositional displacement of pliocene and even younger pleistocene shorelines in this regard we provide a robust paleo sea level elevation data set corrected for glacial isostatic adjustment that can be used to evaluate predictions from mantle flow models of dynamic topography

ice sheet grounding line dynamics steady states stability and hysteresis 1 the ice sheet ice shelf transition zone plays an important role in controlling marine ice sheet dynamics as it determines the rate at which ice flows out of the grounded part of the ice sheet together with accumulation this outflow is the main control on the mass balance of the grounded sheet in this paper we verify the results of a boundary layer theory for ice flux in the transition zone against numerical solutions that are able to resolve the transition zone very close agreement is obtained and grid refinement in the transition zone is identified as a critical component in obtaining reliable numerical results the boundary layer theory confirms that ice flux through the grounding line in a two dimensional sheet shelf system increases sharply with ice thickness at the grounding line this result is then applied to the large scale dynamics of a marine ice sheet our principal results are that 1 marine ice sheets do not exhibit neutral equilibrium but have well defined discrete equilibrium profiles 2 steady grounding lines cannot be stable on reverse bed slopes and 3 marine ice sheets with overdeepened beds can undergo hysteresis under variations in sea level accumulation rate basal slipperiness and ice viscosity this hysteretic behavior can in principle explain the retreat of the west antarctic ice sheet following the last glacial maximum and may play a role in the dynamics of heinrich events

a simple law for ice shelf calving a major problem for ice sheet models is that no physically based law for the calving process has been established comparison across a diverse set of ice shelves demonstrates that iceberg calving increases with the along flow spreading rate of a shelf this relation suggests that frictional buttressing loss which increases spreading also leads to shelf retreat a process known to accelerate ice sheet flow and contribute to sea level rise

calving fluxes and basal melt rates of antarctic ice shelves iceberg calving has been assumed to be the dominant cause of mass loss for the antarctic ice sheet with previous estimates of the calving flux exceeding 2 000 gigatonnes per year1 2 more recently the importance of melting by the ocean has been demonstrated close to the grounding line and near the calving front3 4 5 so far however no study has reliably quantified the calving flux and the basal mass balance the balance between accretion and ablation at the ice shelf base for the whole of antarctica the distribution of fresh water in the southern ocean and its partitioning between the liquid and solid phases is therefore poorly constrained here we estimate the mass balance components for all ice shelves in antarctica using satellite measurements of calving flux and grounding line flux modelled ice shelf snow accumulation rates6 and a regional scaling that accounts for unsurveyed areas we obtain a total calving flux of 1 321 144 gigatonnes per year and a total basal mass balance of 1 454 174 gigatonnes per year this means that about half of the ice sheet surface mass gain is lost through oceanic erosion before reaching the ice front and the calving flux is about 34 per cent less than previous estimates derived from iceberg tracking1 2 7 in addition the fraction of mass loss due to basal processes varies from about 10 to 90 per cent between ice shelves we find a significant positive correlation between basal mass loss and surface elevation change for ice shelves experiencing surface lowering8 and enhanced discharge9 we suggest that basal mass loss is a valuable metric for predicting future ice shelf vulnerability to oceanic forcing

on glacial inception and orography abstract there is no doubt that orography plays a crucial role in the initiation of ice sheets mass balance observations on glaciers in high mountain and polar climates show that the specific balance varies first of all with altitude the height mass balance feedback hmb feedback is the most effective process to turn local ice caps into big ice sheets here a study is presented on the processes that determine the strength of the hmb feedback this is done by carrying out a set of integrations with a numerical ice sheet model for a bounded domain and a sinusoidally varying bed shape results are analysed for different wavenumbers and amplitudes it turns out that the relative importance of the geometric effect higher mountains allow earlier glacierisation and the ice mechanical effect dependence of ice flow on the bed slope varies significantly with wavenumber and amplitude with regard to full glaciation of the domain this implies that for a given wavenumber there is a preferred amplitude that is the drop in the equilibrium line altitude needed to initiate full glaciation has a minimum

testing the effect of water in crevasses on a physically based calving model a new implementation of a calving model using the finite element code elmer is presented and used to investigate the effects of surface water within crevasses on calving rate for this work we use a two dimensional flowline model of columbia glacier alaska using the glacier s 1993 geometry as a starting point we apply a crevasse depth calving criterion which predicts calving at the location where surface crevasses cross the waterline crevasse depth is calculated using the nye formulation we find that calving rate in such a regime is highly dependent on the depth of water in surface crevasses with a change of just a few metres in water depth causing the glacier to change from advancing at a rate of 3 5 km a 1 to retreating at a rate of 1 9 km a 1 these results highlight the potential for atmospheric warming and surface meltwater to trigger glacier retreat but also the difficulty of modelling calving rates as crevasse water depth is difficult to determine either by measurement in situ or surface mass balance modelling

pliocene deglacial event timelines and the biogeochemical response offshore wilkes subglacial basin east antarctica abstract significantly reduced ice coverage in greenland and west antarctica during the warmer than present pliocene could account for 10 m of global mean sea level rise any sea level increase beyond this would require contributions from the east antarctic ice sheet eais previous studies have presented low resolution geochemical evidence from the geological record suggesting repeated ice advance and retreat in low lying areas of the eais such as the wilkes subglacial basin however the rates and mechanisms of retreat events are less well constrained here we present orbitally resolved marine detrital sediment provenance data paired with ice rafted debris and productivity proxies during three time intervals from the middle to late pliocene at iodp site u1361a offshore of the wilkes subglacial basin our new data reveal that pliocene shifts in sediment provenance were paralleled by increases in marine productivity while the onset of such changes was marked by peaks in ice rafted debris mass accumulation rates the coincidence of sediment provenance and marine productivity change argues against a switch in sediment delivery between ice streams and instead suggests that deglacial warming triggered increased rates of iceberg calving followed by inland retreat of the ice margin timescales from the onset of deglaciation to an inland retreated ice margin within the wilkes subglacial basin are on the order of several thousand years this geological evidence corroborates retreat rates determined from ice sheet modeling and a contribution of 3 to 4 m of equivalent sea level rise from one of the most vulnerable areas of the east antarctic ice sheet during interglacial intervals throughout the middle to late pliocene

a dynamic early east antarctic ice sheet suggested by ice covered fjord landscapes the east antarctic ice sheet has played a fundamental part in modulating climate and sea level during the past 30 million years understanding its history is crucial to evaluating its future behaviour and response to global warming airborne ice penetrating radar studies now reveal a fjord like landscape beneath several kilometres of ice in the east antarctic aurora subglacial basin the data confirm and provide a new constraint on the magnitude and dynamics of the oscillations of the east antarctic ice sheet during the late cenozoic which had previously been supported only by marine cores the first cenozoic ice sheets initiated in antarctica from the gamburtsev subglacial mountains1 and other highlands as a result of rapid global cooling 34 million years ago2 in the subsequent 20 million years at a time of declining atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations2 and an evolving antarctic circumpolar current2 sedimentary sequence interpretation3 and numerical modelling4 suggest that cyclical periods of ice sheet expansion to the continental margin followed by retreat to the subglacial highlands occurred up to thirty times these fluctuations were paced by orbital changes and were a major influence on global sea levels5 ice sheet models show that the nature of such oscillations is critically dependent on the pattern and extent of antarctic topographic lowlands here we show that the basal topography of the aurora subglacial basin of east antarctica at present overlain by 2 4 5 km of ice is characterized by a series of well defined topographic channels within a mountain block landscape the identification of this fjord landscape based on new data from ice penetrating radar provides an improved understanding of the topography of the aurora subglacial basin and its surroundings and reveals a complex surface sculpted by a succession of ice sheet configurations substantially different from today s at different stages during its fluctuations the edge of the east antarctic ice sheet lay pinned along the margins of the aurora subglacial basin the upland boundaries of which are currently above sea level and the deepest parts of which are more than 1 km below sea level although the timing of the channel incision remains uncertain our results suggest that the fjord landscape was carved by at least two iceflow regimes of different scales and directions each of which would have over deepened existing topographic depressions reversing valley floor slopes

high tide of the warm pliocene implications of global sea level for antarctic deglaciation we obtained global sea level eustatic estimates with a peak of 22 m higher than present for the pliocene interval 2 7 3 2 ma from backstripping in virginia united states new zealand and enewetak atoll north pacifi c ocean benthic foraminiferal 18 o values and mg ca 18 o estimates statistical analysis indicates that it is likely 68 confi dence interval that peak sea level was 22 5 m higher than modern and extremely likely 95 that it was 22 10 m higher than modern benthic foraminiferal 18 o values appear to require that the peak was 20 21 m our estimates imply loss of the equivalent of the greenland and west antarctic ice sheets and some volume loss from the east antarctic ice sheet and address the longstanding controversy concerning the pliocene stability of the east antarctic ice sheet

trough geometry was a greater influence than climate ocean forcing in regulating retreat of the marine based irish sea ice stream marine terminating ice streams are a major component of contemporary ice sheets and are likely to have a fundamental influence on their future evolution and concomitant contribution to sea level rise to accurately predict this evolution requires that modern day observations can be placed into a longer term context and that numerical ice sheet models used for making predictions are validated against known evolution of former ice masses new geochronological data document a stepped retreat of the paleo irish sea ice stream from its last glacial maximum limits constraining changes in the time averaged retreat rates between well defined ice marginal positions the timing and pace of this retreat is compatible with the sediment landform record and suggests that ice marginal retreat was primarily conditioned by trough geometry and that its pacing was independent of ocean climate forcing we present and integrate new luminescence and cosmogenic exposure ages in a spatial bayesian sequence model for a north south 173km transect of the largest marine terminating ice stream draining the last british irish ice sheet from the south and east coasts of ireland initial rates of ice margin retreat were as high as 300 600 m a 1 but retreat slowed to 26 m a 1 as the ice stream became topographically constricted within st george s channel a sea channel between ireland to the west and great britain to the east and then stabilized retreating at only 3 m a 1 at the narrowest point of the trough during the climatic warming of greenland interstadial 2 gi 2 23 3 22 9 ka later retreat across a normal bed slope during the cooler conditions of greenland stadial 2 was unexpectedly rapid 152 m a 1 we demonstrate that trough geometry had a profound influence on ice margin retreat and suggest that the final rapid retreat was conditioned by ice sheet drawdown dynamic thinning during stabilization at the trough constriction which was exacerbated by increased calving due to warmer ocean waters during gi 2

the triggering of sub glacial lake drainage during the rapid glacier drawdown crane glacier antarctic peninsula ice surface altimetry from icesat 1 and nasa aircraft altimeter overflights spanning 2002 09 indicate that a region of lower crane glacier antarctic peninsula shows an unusual temporal pattern of elevation loss a period of very rapid drawdown 91 m a 1 between september 2004 and september 2005 bounded by periods of large but more moderate rates 23 m a 1 until september 2004 12 m a 1 after september 2005 the region of increased drawdown is 4 5 km 2 2 km based on satellite aster and spot 5 stereo image digital elevation model dem differencing spanning the event in a later differential dem the anomalous drawdown feature is not seen bathymetry in crane glacier fjord reveals a series of flat lying formerly subglacial deeps interpreted as lake sediment basins we conclude that the elevation change feature resulted from drainage of a small deep subglacial lake we infer that the drainage event was induced by hydraulic forcing of subglacial water past a downstream obstruction however only a fraction of crane glacier s increase in flow speed that occurred near the time of lake drainage derived from image feature tracking appears to be directly attributable to the event instead retreat of the ice front off a subglacial ridge 6 km downstream of the lake is likely the dominant cause of renewed fast flow and more negative mass balance in the subsequent 4 years

deep water temperature carbonate ion and ice volume changes across the eocene oligocene climate transition 1 paired benthic foraminiferal stable isotope and mg ca data are used to estimate bottom water temperature bwt and ice volume changes associated with the eocene oligocene transition eot the largest global climate event of the past 50 myr we utilized odp sites 1090 and 1265 in the south atlantic to assess seawater 18o w antarctic ice volume and sea level changes across the eot 33 8 33 54 ma we also use benthic 13c data to reconstruct the sources of the deep water masses in this region during the eot our data together with previously published records indicate that a pulse of northern component water influenced the south atlantic immediately prior to and following the eot benthic 18o records show a 0 5 increase at 33 8 ma eot 1 that represents a 2 c cooling and a small 10 m eustatic fall that is followed by a 1 0 increase associated with oi 1 the expected cooling of deep waters at oi 1 33 54 ma is not apparent in our mg ca records we suggest the cooling is masked by coeval changes in the carbonate saturation state co32 which affect the mg ca data to account for this the bwt ice volume and w estimates are corrected for a change in the co32 of deep waters on the basis of recently published work corrected bwt at sites 1090 and 1265 show a 1 5 c cooling coincident with oi 1 and an average w increase of 0 75 the increase in ice volume during oi 1 resulted in a 70 m drop in global sea level and the development of an antarctic ice sheet that was near modern size or slightly larger

sea level changes at the lgm from ice dynamic reconstructions of the greenland and antarctic ice sheets during the glacial cycles abstract new experiments were performed with three dimensional thermomechanical models of the greenland and antarctic ice sheets to simulate their behaviour during the glacial cycles to reconstruct their thickness and extent at the last glacial maximum lgm and to estimate their glacio eustatic contribution to the global sea level stand the calculations used improved ice dynamic and isostatic treatments updated datasets on higher grid resolutions and refined climatic treatments based on newly calibrated transfer functions between ice core records and climatic perturbations results are discussed from a reference run with standard parameters that is compared with available glacial geological observations and from a series of sensitivity experiments focusing on isostatic adjustment thermomechanical coupling climatic forcing mass balance changes and basal melting rates and viscosity changes of antarctic ice shelves for the antarctic ice sheet we find that volume changes are closely linked with grounding line changes of the west antarctic ice sheet at the lgm the grounding line extended close to the continental shelf break almost everywhere ice over central east antarctica was generally thinner than today and varied mainly in accordance with accumulation fluctuations for the greenland ice sheet melting is important only during interglacial periods and the most sensitive period concerns the size of the ice sheet during the eemian at the lgm the greenland ice sheet extended beyond the present coastline to cover at least the inner continental shelf and thinned by up to several hundred meters in central areas for a plausible range of parameters the experiments indicate that at the time of maximum sea level depression 21 kyr bp the antarctic ice sheet contributed 14 18 m to the sea level lowering and the greenland ice sheet 2 3 m significantly less than the older climap reconstructions whereas both ice sheets were at 21 kyr bp close to their maximum extent the experiments also indicate that their maximum volumes were reached only by 16 5 kyr bp greenland and 10 kyr bp antarctica equal to an additional sea level lowering of respectively 0 4 and 3 7 m holocene retreat was essentially complete by 5 kyr bp in greenland but is found to still continue today in west antarctica before reversing to growth during the next millenium the models were found to reproduce gross features of the ice sheet s history since the lgm in reasonably good agreement with available glacial geological data although observational control on ice thickness changes remains very limited

the dynamic response of the greenland and antarctic ice sheets to multiple century climatic warming new calculations were performed to investigate the combined response of the greenland and antarctic ice sheets to a range of climatic warming scenarios over the next millennium use was made of fully dynamic 3d thermomechanic ice sheet models which were coupled to a two dimensional climate model the experiments were initialized with simulations over the last two glacial cycles to estimate the present evolution and were subsequently forced with temperature scenarios resulting from greenhouse emission scenarios which assume equivalent co2 increases of two four and eight times the present 1990 a d value by the year 2130 a d and a stabilization after that the calculations brought to light that during the next century short term effect the background evolution trend would dominate the response of the antarctic ice sheet but would be negligible for the greenland ice sheet on that timescale the greenland and antarctic ice sheets would roughly balance one another for the middle scenario similar to the ipcc96 is92a scenario with respective contributions to the worldwide sea level stand on the order of about 610 cm on the longer term however both ice sheets would contribute positively to the worldwide sea level stand and the most important effect would come from melting on the greenland ice sheet sensitivity experiments highlighted the role of ice dynamics and the height massbalance feedback on the results it was found that ice dynamics cannot be neglected for the greenland ice sheet not even on a century timescale but becomes only important for antarctica on the longer term the latter is related to an increased outflow of ice into the ice shelves and to the grounding line retreat of the west antarctic ice sheet which are both found to be sensitive to basal melting below ice shelves and the effective viscosity of the ice shelves stretching parameters to their limits yielded a combined maximum rate of sea level rise of 85 cm century21 of which 60 cm would originate from the greenland ice sheet alone

constraints on the amplitude of mid pliocene 3 6 2 4 ma eustatic sea level fluctuations from the new zealand shallow marine sediment record ice volume calibrations of the deep ocean foraminiferal delta18o record imply orbitally influenced sea level fluctuations of up to 30m amplitude during the mid pliocene and up to 30 per cent loss of the present day mass of the east antarctic ice sheet eais assuming complete deglaciation of the west antarctic ice sheet wais and greenland these sea level oscillations have driven recurrent transgressions and regressions across the world s continental shelves wanganui basin new zealand contains the most complete shallow marine late neogene stratigraphic record in the form of a continuous cyclostratigraphy representing every 41 and 100ka sea level cycle since ca 3 6ma this paper presents a synthesis of faunally derived palaeobathymetric data for shallow marine sedimentary cycles corresponding to marine isotope stages m2 100 ca 3 4 2 4ma our approach estimates the eustatic sea level contribution to the palaeobathymetry curve by placing constraints on total subsidence and decompacted sediment accumulation the sea level estimates are consistent with those from delta18o curves and numerical ice sheet models and imply a significant sensitivity of the wais and the coastal margins of the eais to orbital oscillations in insolation during the mid pliocene period of relative global warmth sea level oscillations of 10 30m were paced by obliquity

history of the greenland ice sheet paleoclimatic insights abstract paleoclimatic records show that the greenland ice sheet consistently has lost mass in response to warming and grown in response to cooling such changes have occurred even at times of slow or zero sea level change so changing sea level cannot have been the cause of at least some of the ice sheet changes in contrast there are no documented major ice sheet changes that occurred independent of temperature changes moreover snowfall has increased when the climate warmed but the ice sheet lost mass nonetheless increased accumulation in the ice sheet s center has not been sufficient to counteract increased melting and flow near the edges most documented forcings and ice sheet responses spanned periods of several thousand years but limited data also show rapid response to rapid forcings in particular regions near the ice margin have responded within decades however major changes of central regions of the ice sheet are thought to require centuries to millennia the paleoclimatic record does not yet strongly constrain how rapidly a major shrinkage or nearly complete loss of the ice sheet could occur the evidence suggests nearly total ice sheet loss may result from warming of more than a few degrees above mean 20th century values but this threshold is poorly defined perhaps as little as 2 c or more than 7 c paleoclimatic records are sufficiently sketchy that the ice sheet may have grown temporarily in response to warming or changes may have been induced by factors other than temperature without having been recorded

marine ice sheet collapse potentially under way for the thwaites glacier basin west antarctica resting atop a deep marine basin the west antarctic ice sheet has long been considered prone to instability using a numerical model we investigated the sensitivity of thwaites glacier to ocean melt and whether its unstable retreat is already under way our model reproduces observed losses when forced with ocean melt comparable to estimates simulated losses are moderate 1 mm per year of sea level rise collapse in the different simulations within the range of 200 to 900 years

diverse calving patterns linked to glacier geometry iceberg calving implicated in the retreat of ice shelves is a complex process constrained by few observations numerical simulations suggest that the pattern of iceberg calving is controlled by the geometry of the glacier and that regions of greenland and antarctica may be particularly vulnerable to catastrophic calving driven retreat

modelling west antarctic ice sheet growth and collapse through the past five million years changes in earth s orbit are known to influence climate shifts from cold glacials to warm interglacials how the vast west antarctic ice sheet responds to these fluctuations is uncertain but because its collapse could raise sea levels by about 5 metres of great interest naish et al have analysed the and 1b ocean sediment core extracted from beneath the ross ice shelf as part of the andrill drilling project and find evidence that the ice sheet collapsed periodically during the early pliocene 3 5 million years ago when atmospheric co2 levels were similar to or slightly higher than today s the pattern of collapse suggests an influence of approximately 40 000 year cycles in the tilt of earth s rotational axis obliquity also in this issue of nature in a numerical modelling study focused on the past 5 million years in antarctica david pollard and robert deconto combine ice sheet land supported and ice shelf water supported modelling approaches to simulate the movement of the grounding line the border between land and sea ice their results show that over the past 5 million years the west antarctic ice sheet transitioned between full intermediate and collapsed states in just a few thousand years this means that the ice sheet is likely to disintegrate if ocean temperatures in the area rise by 5 c if the west antarctic ice sheet wais melted sea levels would rise by about 5 m such changes are thought to have occurred in the past but could not be simulated by models pollard and deconto combine ice sheet with ice shelf modelling and show that over the past 5 million years the wais transitioned among full intermediate and collapsed states in only a few thousand years suggesting possible disintegration of the wais if ocean temperatures in the area rise by 5 c the west antarctic ice sheet wais with ice volume equivalent to 5 m of sea level1 has long been considered capable of past and future catastrophic collapse2 3 4 today the ice sheet is fringed by vulnerable floating ice shelves that buttress the fast flow of inland ice streams grounding lines are several hundred metres below sea level and the bed deepens upstream raising the prospect of runaway retreat3 5 projections of future wais behaviour have been hampered by limited understanding of past variations and their underlying forcing mechanisms6 7 its variation since the last glacial maximum is best known with grounding lines advancing to the continental shelf edges around 15 kyr ago before retreating to near modern locations by 3 kyr ago8 prior collapses during the warmth of the early pliocene epoch9 and some pleistocene interglacials have been suggested indirectly from records of sea level and deep sea core isotopes and by the discovery of open ocean diatoms in subglacial sediments10 until now11 however little direct evidence of such behaviour has been available here we use a combined ice sheet ice shelf model12 capable of high resolution nesting with a new treatment of grounding line dynamics and ice shelf buttressing5 to simulate antarctic ice sheet variations over the past five million years modelled wais variations range from full glacial extents with grounding lines near the continental shelf break intermediate states similar to modern and brief but dramatic retreats leaving only small isolated ice caps on west antarctic islands transitions between glacial intermediate and collapsed states are relatively rapid taking one to several thousand years our simulation is in good agreement with a new sediment record andrill and 1b recovered from the western ross sea11 indicating a long term trend from more frequently collapsed to more glaciated states dominant 40 kyr cyclicity in the pliocene and major retreats at marine isotope stage 31 1 07 myr ago and other super interglacials

continued evolution of jakobshavn isbrae following its rapid speedup 1 several new data sets reveal that thinning and speedup of jakobshavn isbrae continue following its recent rapid increase in speed as its floating ice tongue disintegrated the present speedup rate of 5 a 1 over much of the fast moving region appears to be a diffusive response to the initial much larger speedup near the front there is strong seasonality in speed over much of the fast flowing main trunk that shows a good inverse correlation with the seasonally varying length of a short typically 6 km floating ice tongue this modulation of speed with ice front position supports the hypothesis that the major speedup was caused by loss of the larger floating ice tongue from 1998 to 2003 analysis of image time series suggests that the transient winter ice tongue is formed when sea ice bonds glacier ice in the fjord to produce a nearly rigid mass that almost entirely suppresses calving major calving only resumes in late winter when much of this ice clears from the fjord the collapse of the ice tongue in the late 1990s followed almost immediately after a sharp decline in winter sea ice concentration in disko bay this decline may have extended the length of the calving season for several consecutive years leading to the ice tongue s collapse

seasonal to decadal scale variations in the surface velocity of jakobshavn isbrae greenland observation and model based analysis 1 using new data we build upon the nearly two decade long record of observations from jakobshavn isbrae to investigate the processes driving its dynamic evolution while winter flow speed has not increased substantially over the last three winters there remains a strong seasonal variation in flow speed that coincides with a cycle of summer thinning and winter thickening we relate changes in glacier speed to geometry through variations in basal traction and horizontal stresses using ice flow models constrained by satellite and airborne observations these results suggest that the bed provides little flow resistance along the main trough within about 20 km of the terminus while the loss of buttressing from the retreat of grounded and floating ice likely contributed to the initial speedup other processes are of comparable significance at seasonal to decadal time scales from analysis of the models we hypothesize that thinning induced change in basal effective pressure is the dominant process influencing near terminus behavior while diffusive processes drive the upstream response the apparent need for the terminus to thin to near flotation before it can calve may limit the rate at which retreat occurs our analysis of the processes controlling the speed suggests little potential for further large acceleration thinning and elevated speeds may continue at rates similar to present however putting the glacier on course to retreat to the head of its deep trough in about a century at which point it likely would stabilize with a thinner terminus

convergent cenozoic co2 history reconstructions of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations over the past 65 million years are heading towards consensus it is time for systematic testing of the proxies against measurements and against each other

fast tidewater glaciers some iceberg calving outlet glaciers flow continuously at speeds normally associated with surging glaciers arid exhibit dramatic instability scenarios related to those suggested for marine ice sheets no temperate tidewater glaciers are known to have floating termini but many polar and subpolar tidewater glaciers do the fast flow of temperate calving glaciers is almost entirely due to basal sliding and appears to be a function of the effective pressure on the bed which may approach zero and the longitudinal back stress on the terminus the terminus boundary condition the calving relation is imperfectly known yet is vital to the dynamics of these glaciers calving relations for grounded tidewater glaciers have been suggested on empirical grounds but have not been rigorously tested the calving relations for floating termini are virtually unknown this together with the imperfect understanding of basal sliding inhibits confidence in our understanding of the stability of these glaciers columbia glacier alaska is an instructive example because observations have been made on the major changes in its geometry calving rate and dynamics that have occurred in less than 10 years the calving flux has increased more rapidly than the glacier flux causing thinning and retreat as a result the ice velocity has increased markedly the short term velocity changes relate to changes in back pressure ice recession tidal changes and the flux of water injected to the bed these results have relevance to the mechanisms of basal sliding glacier surges and the stability of marine ice streams

insights into spatial sensitivities of ice mass response to environmental change from the searise ice sheet modeling project i antarctica atmospheric oceanic and subglacial forcing scenarios from the sea level response to ice sheet evolution searise project are applied to six three dimensional thermomechanical ice sheet models to assess antarctic ice sheet sensitivity over a 500 year timescale and to inform future modeling and field studies results indicate i growth with warming except within low latitude basins where inland thickening is outpaced by marginal thinning ii mass loss with enhanced sliding with basins dominated by high driving stresses affected more than basins with low surface slope streaming ice and iii mass loss with enhanced ice shelf melting with changes in west antarctica dominating the signal due to its marine setting and extensive ice shelves cf minimal impact in the terre adelie george v oates and victoria land region of east antarctica ice loss due to dynamic changes associated with enhanced sliding and or sub shelf melting exceeds the gain due to increased precipitation furthermore differences in results between and within basins as well as the controlling impact of sub shelf melting on ice dynamics highlight the need for improved understanding of basal conditions grounding zone processes ocean ice interactions and the numerical representation of all three key points sensitivity study of antarctica to atmospheric oceanic and subglacial forcings different sectors of antarctica are vulnerable to the forcings atmospheric forcing lead to a growth but dynamic forcing lead to a mass loss 2013 american geophysical union all rights reserved

fracture field for large scale ice dynamics recent observations and modeling studies emphasize the crucial role of fracture mechanics for the stability of ice shelves and thereby the evolution of ice sheets here we introduce a macroscopic fracture density field into a prognostic continuum ice flow model and compute its evolution incorporating the initiation and growth of fractures as well as their advection with two dimensional ice flow to a first approximation fracture growth is assumed to depend on the spreading rate only while fracture initiation is defined in terms of principal stresses the inferred fracture density fields compare well with observed elongate surface structures since crevasses and other deep reaching fracture structures have been shown to influence the overall ice shelf dynamics we propose the fracture density field introduced here be used as a measure for ice softening and decoupling of the ice flow in fracture weakened zones this may yield more accurate and realistic velocity patterns in prognostic simulations additionally the memory of past fracture events links the calving front to the upstream dynamics thus the fracture density field proposed here may be employed in fracture based calving parameterizations the aim of this study is to introduce the field and investigate which of the observed surface structures can be reproduced by the simplest physically motivated fracture source terms

reassessment of the potential sea level rise from a collapse of the west antarctic ice sheet theory has suggested that the west antarctic ice sheet may be inherently unstable recent observations lend weight to this hypothesis we reassess the potential contribution to eustatic and regional sea level from a rapid collapse of the ice sheet and find that previous assessments have substantially overestimated its likely primary contribution we obtain a value for the global eustatic sea level rise contribution of about 3 3 meters with important regional variations the maximum increase is concentrated along the pacific and atlantic seaboard of the united states where the value is about 25 greater than the global mean even for the case of a partial collapse

grounding line retreat of totten glacier east antarctica 1996 to 2013 2015 american geophysical union all rights reserved totten glacier east antarctica a glacier that holds a 3 9 m sea level change equivalent has thinned and lost mass for decades we map its grounding line positions in 1996 and 2013 using differential radar interferometry insar data and develop precise high resolution topographies of its ice surface and ice draft using nasa operation icebridge data insar data and a mass conservation method we detect a 1 to 3 km retreat of the grounding line in 17 years the retreat is asymmetrical along a two lobe pattern where ice is only grounded a few 10 m above sea level or ice plain which may unground further with only modest amounts of ice thinning the pattern of retreat indicates ice thinning of 12 m in 17 years or 0 7 0 1 m yr at the grounding line on average sustained thinning will cause further grounding line retreat but may not be conducive to a marine instability key points grounding line of totten glacier is retreating not as fast as west antarctica retreat pattern explained by the newly inferred bed geometry if ice thinning maintains bed geometry conducive to further retreat