stress evolution in southern california and triggering of moderate small and micro size earthquakes we calculate the evolution of stresses in southern california extending the study of deng and sykes 1997 by increasing from 6 to 36 the number of earthquakes for which coseismic changes in stress are computed and by expanding from m 6 to m 1 8 the range of magnitudes m of events whose focal mechanism solutions are examined in the context of the evolving stress field the cumulative stress on a given date is calculated with respect to an arbitrary zero baseline just before the 1812 wrightwood earthquake by taking into account the long term stress loading associated with 98 fault segments and coseismic stress changes for 36 significant earthquakes our calculations indicate that more than 85 of m 5 earthquakes from 1932 1995 occurred in regions of positive change in coulomb failure function cff most of the remaining about 15 earthquakes that occurred in areas of negative cff fall very close to boundaries between positive and negative cff some of which are sensitive to the less well controlled slip distributions of the earliest historic events calculations also show that from 1981 until just before the 1992 landers earthquake more than 85 of small m 3 and micro size m 1 8 shocks in the seeber and armbruster 1995 catalog with mechanisms involving either nw trending right lateral or ne trending left lateral strike slip faulting occurred in regions of positive cff the ratio of encouraged to all small and micro size events reaches a high value of about 88 if an apparent coefficient of friction between 0 0 and 0 6 is used the highest percentage of earthquakes occurred in areas where stress is about 1 mpa above the 1812 baseline most 66 events occurred in regions of cff between 0 0 and 2 0 mpa the upper limit indicates that the approximate range of stress variation in the earthquake cycle is of the order of 2 0 mpa the fact that the locations of most moderate small and micro size earthquakes are still related to stress changes remaining from large historical events might be used to constrain slip distribution of some of those earthquakes and to constrain the locations of future significant events

accelerated stress buildup on the southern san andreas fault and surrounding regions caused by mojave desert earthquakes a sequence of four mw 6 earthquakes including the 1992 mw 5 7 3 landers and mw 5 7 1 hector mine earthquakes occurred in the mojave desert in the 1990s in close proximity to the southern san andreas fault inducing stress changes on several of its segments we calculate that coseismic slip combined with postseismic relaxation of viscous lower crust and or upper mantle has led to a coulomb stress increase of 2 3 3 5 bar on the san bernardino mountain segment of the southern san andreas fault between 1992 and 2001 with a projected increase of 3 6 4 9 bar by the year 2020 in comparison the calculated coseismic stress increase is 1 8 bar for this segment this accelerated buildup of stresses is predicted to bring the san bernardino mountain segment which last ruptured more than 190 yr ago closer to a potentially major rupture meanwhile we project a net stress decrease of as much as 23 5 bar between 1992 and 2020 for the western coachella valley segment if the fault is governed by low effective friction or an increase of 1 5 bar if the fault is governed by high effective friction coulomb stresses are calculated to decrease on the mojave segment by as much as 21 bar between 1992 and 2020 accelerated stress buildup is also predicted to occur on parts of the san jacinto elsinore and calico faults the pattern of the observed post landers aftershock clustering and the calculated coulomb stress buildup on the calico fault is similar to that noted in the hector mine region prior to the 1999 mw 5 7 1 earthquake these results imply that the stress changes caused by an earthquake may still play a role in triggering future quakes in neighboring crust many years later through viscoelastic processes

a kinematic model for deformation of the lithosphere at subduction zones a subduction model that interprets the whole pattern of topography and gravity anomalies across the island arc trench system has been constructed on the basis of dislocation theory we model the lithosphere asthenosphere system by a gravitating stratified half space which consists of an elastic surface layer an intervening layer with maxwell viscoelasticily and an elastic substratum the steady subduction of the oceanic plate beneath the continental plate is represented by uniform slip at a constant rate over the plate interface which divides the elastic viscoelastic half space into two blocks using the limiting value theorem of the laplace transform we can show that the steady slip on the interface deeper than the lithosphere asthenosphere boundary does not contribute to surface deformation in the steady state accordingly the pattern of surface deformation associated with the steady state subduction depends only on the thickness of the lithosphere and the geometry of the plate interface shallower than the lithosphere asthenosphere boundary numerical results show that the pattern of vertical motion at subduction zones is characterized by steep uplift on the continental side sharp subsidence at the plate boundary and gentle uplift on the oceanic side this pattern bears a striking resemblance to the general pattern of topography across island arc trench systems the whole pattern of topography and gravity anomalies across the southern kurile arc is well matched by the subduction model with a lithosphere thickness of 50 km and a dip angle of 30 at depths

earthquake cycle deformation in the tibetan plateau with a weak mid crustal layer 1 geodetic observations of interseismic deformation across the tibetan plateau contain information about both tectonic and earthquake cycle processes time variations in surface velocities between large earthquakes are sensitive to the rheological structure of the subseismogenic crust and in particular the viscosity of the middle and lower crust here we develop a semianalytic solution for time dependent interseismic velocities resulting from viscoelastic stress relaxation in a localized midcrustal layer in response to forcing by a sequence of periodic earthquakes earthquake cycle models with a weak midcrustal layer exhibit substantially more near fault preseismic strain localization than do classic two layer models at short 50 mm yr postseismic velocities in the years following the coseismic ruptures we suggest that earthquake cycle models with a localized midcrustal layer can simultaneously explain both preseismic and postseismic geodetic observations with a single maxwell viscosity while the classic two layer model requires a rheology with multiple relaxation time scales

stress sensitivity of fault seismicity a comparison between limited offset oblique and major strike slip faults we present a new three dimensional inventory of the southern san francisco bay area faults and use it to calculate stress applied principally by the 1989 m 7 1 loma prieta earthquake and to compare fault seismicity rates before and after 1989 the major high angle right lateral faults exhibit a different response to the stress change than do minor oblique right lateral thrust faults seismicity on oblique slip faults in the southern santa clara valley thrust belt increased where the faults were unclamped the strong dependence of seismicity change on normal stress change implies a high coefficient of static friction in contrast we observe that faults with significant offset 50 100 km behave differently microseismicity on the hayward fault diminished where right lateral shear stress was reduced and where it was unclamped by the loma prieta earthquake we observe a similar response on the san andreas fault zone in southern california after the landers earthquake sequence additionally the offshore san gregorio fault shows a seismicity rate increase where right lateral oblique shear stress was increased by the loma prieta earthquake despite also being clamped by it these responses are consistent with either a low coefficient of static friction or high pore fluid pressures within the fault zones we can explain the different behavior of the two styles of faults if those with large cumulative offset become impermeable through gouge buildup coseismically pressurized pore fluids could be trapped and negate imposed normal stress changes whereas in more limited offset faults fluids could rapidly escape the difference in behavior between minor and major faults may explain why frictional failure criteria that apply intermediate coefficients of static friction can be effective in describing the broad distributions of aftershocks that follow large earthquakes since many of these events occur both inside and outside major fault zones

geodetically constrained models of viscoelastic stress transfer and earthquake triggering along the north anatolian fault over the past 80 years 8 mw 6 7 strike slip earthquakes west of 40 longitude have ruptured the north anatolian fault naf from east to west the series began with the 1939 erzincan earthquake in eastern turkey and the most recent 1999 mw 7 4 izmit earthquake extended the pattern of ruptures into the sea of marmara in western turkey the mean time between seismic events in this westward progression is 8 5 11 years 67 confidence interval much greater than the timescale of seismic wave propagation seconds to minutes the delayed triggering of these earthquakes may be explained by the propagation of earthquake generated diffusive viscoelastic fronts within the upper mantle that slowly increase the coulomb failure stress change cfs at adjacent hypocenters here we develop three dimensional stress transfer models with an elastic upper crust coupled to a viscoelastic burgers rheology mantle both the maxwell m 4 1018 1 1019 pa s and kelvin k 1 1018 1 1019 pa s viscosities are constrained by studies of geodetic observations before and after the 1999 izmit earthquake we combine this geodetically constrained rheological model with the observed sequence of large earthquakes since 1939 to calculate the time evolution of cfs changes along the north anatolian fault due to viscoelastic stress transfer apparent threshold values of mean cfs at which the earthquakes in the eight decade sequence occur are between 0 02 to 3 15 mpa and may exceed the magnitude of static cfs values by as much as 177 by 2023 we infer that the mean time dependent stress change along the northern naf strand in the marmara sea near istanbul which may have previously ruptured in 1766 may reach the mean apparent time dependent stress thresholds of the previous naf earthquakes

seven years of postseismic deformation following the 1999 m 7 4 and m 7 2 izmit duzce turkey earthquake sequence 1 we report the results of nearly 7 years of postseismic deformation measurements using continuously recorded and survey mode gps observations for the 1999 izmit duzce earthquake sequence resolvable time dependent postseismic changes to the preearthquake interseismic velocity field extend at least as far as the continuous gps station in ankara 200 km southeast of the izmit rupture seven years after the earthquake sequence the relative postseismic velocity across the north anatolian fault naf reaches 10 12 mm a roughly 50 of the steady state interseismic rate with the highest postseismic velocities within 40 km of the coseismic ruptures we use a sequence of logarithmic time functions to fit gps site motions up to three logarithmic terms with decay constants of 1 150 and 3500 days are necessary to fit all the transient motion observed at the continuous gps stations the first term is required for the component of site motion parallel to the naf at near field sites strongly implicating rapid shallow afterslip the intermediate and longer term postseismic velocity components reflect more broadly distributed strain with a symmetric double couple pattern suggestive of either localized deep afterslip or viscoelastic relaxation of the upper mantle and or lower crust in two areas including the marmara sea this pattern is superimposed on north south extension centered on the naf we speculate that this extension may result from aseismic dip slip along coseismically weakened faults driven by the background tectonic stress

the flin flon paleosol and the composition of the atmosphere 1 8 bybp within the 1800 to 1900 my old flin flon snow lake greenstone belt amisk group volcanics are overlain by missi group fluvial sediments several localities along the missi amisk contact the volcanics show evidence of subaerial weathering field relationships mineralogical evidence and chemical analyses confirm that this alteration zone is a paleosol pedogenic fabrics and mineralogy were somewhat obscured by greenschist grade metamorphism associated with the hudsonian orogeny 1750 my this is especially true in the upper meter of the paleosol where metamorphic paragonite and sericitic micas developed in a crenulated fabric this metamorphism did not however obliterate the imprint of weathering on the amisk volcanics features characteristic of well drained modern soils are evident in the paleosol corestones of spheroidally weathered pillow lavas occur at depth within the paleosol cr horizon the corestones decrease in size upward and eventually disappear into a hematite rich horizon at the top of the paleosol these macroscopic changes are accompanied by a decrease in cao and mgo and by an increase in al2o3 tio2 and total iron toward the paleosol missi contact ferrous iron decreases upward toward the contact feo was apparently oxidized to ferric iron and retained within the paleosol during weathering the oxidation and retention of iron within the flin flon paleosol indicates that po2 was probably or 10 2 p a l at the time of weathering the behavior of iron in the flin flon paleosol contrasts sharply with its behavior in the 2200 my hekpoort paleosol which is strongly depleted in iron this difference suggests that a significant increase in the ratio of po2 pco2 in the atmosphere took place between 2200 and 1800 mybp

dynamics of izmit earthquake postseismic deformation and loading of the duzce earthquake hypocenter we have developed dynamic finite element models of izmit earthquake postseismic deformation to evaluate whether this deformation is better explained by afterslip via either velocity strengthening frictional slip or linear viscous creep or by distributed linear viscoelastic relaxation of the lower crust we find that velocity strengthening frictional afterslip driven by coseismic shear stress loading can reproduce time dependent global positioning system data better than either linear viscous creep on a vertical shear zone below the rupture or lower crustal viscoelastic relaxation our best frictional afterslip model fits the main features of postseismic slip inversions in particular high slip patches at and below the hypocenter and on the western karadere segment and limited afterslip west of the hersek delta burgmann et al 2002 the model requires a weakly velocity strengthening fault that is either low effective normal stress in the slipping regions or a smaller value for the parameter describing rate dependence of friction a b than is indicated by laboratory experiments our best afterslip model suggests that the coulomb stress at the duzce hypocenter increased by 0 14 mpa 1 4 bars during the izmit earthquake assuming right lateral slip on a surface dipping 50 to the north and by another 0 1 mpa during the 87 days between the izmit and duzce earthquakes in the marmara sea region within about 160 km of the izmit earthquake rupture this model indicates that the coulomb stresses increased by 15 25 of the coseismic amount during the first 300 days after the earthquake three hundred days after the earthquake postseismic contributions to coulomb stressing rate on the maramara region faults had fallen to values equal to or less than the inferred secular stress accumulation rate our estimates of postseismic coulomb stress are highly model dependent in the marmara region the linear viscous shear zone and viscoelastic lower crust models predict greater postseismic coulomb stresses than the frictional afterslip model near field stress and fault zone rheology estimates are sensitive to the earth9s elastic structure when a layered elastic structure is incorporated in our model it yields a coulomb stress of 0 24 mpa at the duzce hypocenter significantly more than the 0 14 mpa estimated from the uniform elastic model because of the higher near field coseismic stresses the layered elastic model requires a higher value of velocity strengthening parameter a b a b times effective normal stress r to produce comparable postseismic slip a b is estimated at 0 4 and 0 2 mpa respectively for the layered and uniform elastic models these results highlight the importance of understanding the earth9s elastic structure and the mechanism for postseismic deformation if we wish to accurately model coseismic and postseismic crustal stresses

the 2002 denali fault earthquake alaska a large magnitude slip partitioned event the mw moment magnitude 7 9 denali fault earthquake on 3 november 2002 was associated with 340 kilometers of surface rupture and was the largest strike slip earthquake in north america in almost 150 years it illuminates earthquake mechanics and hazards of large strike slip faults it began with thrusting on the previously unrecognized susitna glacier fault continued with right slip on the denali fault then took a right step and continued with right slip on the totschunda fault there is good correlation between geologically observed and geophysically inferred moment release the earthquake produced unusually strong distal effects in the rupture propagation direction including triggered seismicity

elastic and inelastic triggering of earthquakes in the north anatolian fault zone abstract deformation models used to explain the triggering mechanism often assume pure elastic behaviour for the crust and upper mantle in reality however the mantle and possibly the lower crust behave viscoelastically particularly over longer time scales consequently the stress field of an earthquake is in general time dependent in addition if the elastic stress increase were enough to trigger a later earthquake this triggered event should occur instantaneously and not many years after the triggering event hence it is appropriate to include inelastic behaviour when analysing stress transfer and earthquake interaction in this work we analyse a sequence of 10 magnitude m s 6 5 events along the north anatolian fault between 1939 and 1999 to study the evolution of the regional coulomb stress field we investigate the triggering of these events by stress transfer taking viscoelastic relaxation into account we evaluate the contribution of elastic stress changes of post seismic viscoelastic relaxation in the lower crust and mantle and of steady tectonic loading to the total coulomb stress field we analyse the evolution of stress in the region under study as well as on the rupture surfaces of the considered events and their epicentres we study the state of the coulomb stress field before the 1999 izmit and duzce earthquakes as well as in the marmara sea region in general the coulomb stress failure criterion offers a plausible explanation for the location of these events however we show that using a purely elastic model disregards an important part of the actual stress increase decrease in several cases post seismic relaxation effects are important and greater in magnitude than the stress changes due to steady tectonic loading consequently viscoelastic relaxation should be considered in any study dealing with coulomb stress changes according to our study and assuming that an important part of the rupture surface must be stressed for an earthquake to occur the most likely value for the viscosity of the lower crust or mantle in this region is 5 10 17 10 18 pa s our results cannot rule out the possibility of other time dependent processes involved in the triggering of the 1999 duzce event however the stress increase due to viscoelastic relaxation brought 22 of the 1999 duzce rupture area over the threshold value of c 0 01 mpa 0 1 bar and took the whole surface closer to failure by an average of 0 2 mpa finally we argue that the marmara sea region is currently being loaded with positive coulomb stresses at a much faster rate than would arise exclusively from steady tectonic loading on the north anatolian fault

the 1995 kobe japan earthquake a long delayed aftershock of the offshore 1944 tonankai and 1946 nankaido earthquakes the 1995 kobe earthquake produced predominantly right lateral slip along the northeast southwest trending nojima fault approximately 200 km landward of the nankai trough southwest japan the last major earthquakes along the nankai trough the m 8 0 1944 tonanakai and m 8 2 1946 nankaido earthquakes involved about 4 m of interplate slip each releasing about 100 years of accumulated stress from the northwest southeast convergence of the philippine sea phs plate by calculating the change in coulomb failure stress on the nojima fault due to 1944 46 to 1995 postseismic relaxation of a thin low viscosity channel beneath southwest japan we show that stress diffusion from the 1940s interplate earthquakes increased the likelihood of future failure on the nojima fault by slowly but progressively unloading the normal stress on the fault over a 50 yr period

a negative fold test on the lorrain formation of the huronian supergroup uncertainty on the paleolatitude of the paleoproterozoic gowganda glaciation and implications for the great oxygenation event previous paleomagnetic studies of the glaciogenic gowganda and lorrain formations have identified several low inclination magnetic components of high thermal stability which suggest low latitude glaciation during deposition of the huronian supergroup canada while extraordinary claims demand extraordinary proof prior authors have been unable to support their interpretations of these components conclusively with any of the classic field stability tests e g conglomerate fold and baked contact capable of demonstrating that the magnetization was acquired at or soon enough after the time of deposition to be used to constrain the paleolatitude of the gowganda or lorrain formations we report here the results of a fold test from the purple siltstone member of the lorrain formation near the town of desbarats ontario which indicate that none of the reported components dates to the time of deposition hence the paleolatitude of the gowganda glaciation is uncertain comparison of the lithostratigraphic paleomagnetic and radiometric constraints on the huronian sequence and the transvaal supergroup of southern africa implies that the one verified low latitude paleoproterozoic glacial event the makganyene glaciation transvaal supergroup south africa is younger than the three glacial units of canada with this correlation the physical rock record indicates that the great oxygenation event began in the time interval between the gowganda and makganyene glaciations these data are consistent with the sudden evolution of oxygenic photosynthesis destroying a methane greenhouse and thereby triggering the first snowball earth event in earth history

segmentation and supercycles a catalog of earthquake rupture patterns from the sumatran sunda megathrust and other well studied faults worldwide abstract after more than 100 years of earthquake research earthquake forecasting which relies on knowledge of past fault rupture patterns has become the foundation for societal defense against seismic natural disasters a concept that has come into focus more recently is that rupture segmentation and cyclicity can be complex and that a characteristic earthquake model is too simple to adequately describe much of fault behavior nevertheless recognizable patterns in earthquake recurrence emerge from long high resolution spatially distributed chronologies researchers now seek to discover the maximum minimum and typical rupture areas the distribution variability and spatial applicability of recurrence intervals and patterns of earthquake clustering in space and time the term supercycle has been used to describe repeating longer periods of elastic strain accumulation and release that involve multiple fault ruptures however this term has become very broadly applied lumping together several distinct phenomena that likely have disparate underlying causes we divide earthquake cycle behavior into four major classes that have different implications for seismic hazard and fault mechanics 1 quasi periodic similar ruptures 2 clustered similar ruptures 3 clustered complementary ruptures rupture cascades and 4 superimposed cycles segmentation is likewise an ambiguous term we identify master segments and asperities as defined by barriers to fault rupture these barriers may be persistent rarely or never traversed frequent occasionally traversed or ephemeral changing location from cycle to cycle we compile a catalog of the historical and paleoseismic evidence that currently exists for each of these types of behavior on major well studied faults worldwide due to the unique level of paleoseismic and paleogeodetic detail provided by the coral microatoll technique the sumatran sunda megathrust provides one of the most complete records over multiple earthquake rupture cycles long historical records of earthquakes along the south american and japanese subduction zones are also vital contributors to our catalog along with additional data compiled from subduction zones in cascadia alaska and middle america as well as the north anatolian and dead sea strike slip faults in the middle east we find that persistent and frequent barriers rupture cascades superimposed cycles and quasi periodic similar ruptures are common features of most major faults clustered similar ruptures do not appear to be common but broad overlap zones between neighboring segments do occur barrier regions accommodate slip through reduced interseismic coupling slow slip events and or smaller more localized ruptures and are frequently associated with structural features such as subducting seafloor relief or fault trace discontinuities this catalog of observations provides a basis for exploring and modeling root causes of rupture segmentation and cycle behavior we expect that researchers will recognize similar behavior styles on other major faults around the world

the silver deposits at cobalt and gowganda ontario ii an experiment in age determinations employing radiometric and paleomagnetic measurements u pb analyses of primary baddeleyite and vein related secondary rutile separated from a nipissing diabase sill at the castle mine gowganda yield ages of 2217 5 1 6 and 2217 0 6 ma respectively the data allow for the possibility that i the vein formed at essentially the same time as diabase intrusion defined within the limits of the intercept age or ii the vein could have formed up to 8 1 ma later than intrusion paleomagnetic analyses of the diabase suggest that it is part of the older n2 phase of this widespread intrusive event paleomagnetic analyses of a pre vein granite dike intrusive into the diabase provide a minimum time interval of 20 000 50 000 years separating intrusion and vein formation 40ar 39ar analyses of silicates obtained from ore veins in the cobalt camp yield highly disturbed age spectra paleomagnetic analyses of altered wall rocks to ore veins in both the castle mine and the cobalt camp provide a wide range of apparent ages inconsistent with the u pb data the 4

conditions of subaerial weathering of basalts in the neoarchean and paleoproterozoic abstract precambrian weathering profiles or regoliths were formed on the earth s surface in contact with meteoritic water this signifies that their mineral and bulk composition should reflect the environmental conditions at the time of weathering the aim of this study is to reconstruct the main mineralogical and chemical trends involved in the formation of precambrian weathering regoliths by means of geochemical modeling verified through laboratory experimentation we have demonstrated that in a wide range of modeling conditions weathering profiles of basalts consist mostly of clay minerals smectites and illite carbonate minerals may also be deposited within the profile at the initial stage of weathering which are later dissolved during a further process the time necessary for complete dissolution of primary minerals and crystallization of authigenic minerals is between 100 and 140 kyr modeling results indicate that neoarchean and paleoproterozoic 2 8 2 0 ga weathering profiles were formed under an atmosphere with pco2 not much higher than 25 pal and climatic conditions close to those found in modern times weathering under co2 rich pco2 1 and 10 bar and ch4 rich atmospheres as well as high temperature 50 c and 75 c conditions do not produce compounds corresponding to the analyzed samples

changes in static stress on southern california faults after the 1992 landers earthquake the magnitude 7 5 landers earthquake of 28 june 1992 was the largest earthquake to strike california in 40 years the slip that occurs in such an earthquake would be expected to induce large changes in the static stress on neighbouring faults these changes in stress should in turn affect the likelihood of future earthquakes stress changes that load faults towards failure have been cited as the cause of small1 5 moderate6 and large7 earthquakes conversely those that relax neighbouring faults have been related to a decrease in seismicity5 here we use an elastic half space model8 to estimate the stress changes produced by the landers earthquake on selected southern california faults including the san andreas we find that the estimated stress changes are consistent with the triggering of four out of the five aftershocks with magnitude greater than 4 5 and that the largest changes 1 10 bar occurring on part of the san bernardino segment of the san andreas fault may have decreased the time to the next magnitude 8 earthquake by about 14 years

modeling and analysis of ageostrophic circulation over the azores oceanic front during the semaphore experiment abstract in the conventional quasigeostrophic qg form of the equation developed by hoskins et al the unique forcing of vertical velocity is the geostrophic deformation as the qg or even the semigeostrophic sg hypotheses are not adapted to study the frontal dynamics in the atmospheric boundary layer this paper proposes a generalized expression of the hoskins et al form of the vertical velocity two thermal and three dynamical sources of the vertical velocity are identified these forcings allow for identification of each of the physical processes acting simultaneously on the ageostrophic circulation in the boundary layer this new form of the equation is used to explain wind increase in the atmospheric boundary layer over the warm waters of the sea surface temperature sst front observed during a fair anticyclonic day of the semaphore experiment 1993 and simulated with a nonhydrostatic mesoscale atmospheric model since the sst gradients are weak of the order of 1 5 c 100 km 1 the surfac

connecting crustal seismicity and earthquake driven stress evolution in southern california tectonic stress in the crust evolves during a seismic cycle with slow stress accumulation over interseismic periods episodic stress steps at the time of earthquakes and transient stress readjustment during a postseismic period that may last months to years static stress transfer to surrounding faults has been well documented to alter regional seismicity rates over both short and long time scales while static stress transfer is instantaneous and long lived postseismic stress transfer driven by viscoelastic relaxation of the ductile lower crust and mantle leads to additional slowly varying stress perturbations both processes may be tested by comparing a decades long record of regional seismicity to predicted time dependent seismicity rates based on a stress evolution model that includes viscoelastic stress transfer here we explore crustal stress evolution arising from the seismic cycle in southern california from 1981 to 2014 using five m 6 5 source quakes the m7 3 1992 landers m6 5 1992 big bear m6 7 1994 big bear m7 1 1999 hector mine and m7 2 2010 el mayor cucapah earthquakes we relate the stress readjustment in the surrounding crust generated by each quake to regional seismicity using rate and state friction theory using a log likelihood approach we quantify the potential to trigger seismicity of both static and viscoelastic stress transfer finding that both processes have systematically shaped the spatial pattern of southern california seismicity since 1992

fault interaction and stress triggering of twentieth century earthquakes in mongolia 1 a cluster of exceptionally large earthquakes in the interior of asia occurred from 1905 to 1967 the 1905 m7 9 tsetserleg and m8 4 bolnai earthquakes the 1931 m8 0 fu yun earthquake the 1957 m8 1 gobi altai earthquake and the 1967 m7 1 mogod earthquake sequence each of the larger m 8 earthquakes involved strike slip faulting averaging more than 5 m and rupture lengths of several hundred kilometers available geologic data indicate that recurrence intervals on the major source faults are several thousands of years and distances of about 400 km separate the respective rupture areas we propose that the occurrences of these and many smaller earthquakes are related and controlled to a large extent by stress changes generated by the compounded static deformation of the preceding earthquakes and subsequent viscoelastic relaxation of the lower crust and upper mantle beneath mongolia we employ a spherically layered viscoelastic model constrained by the 1994 2002 gps velocity field in western mongolia vergnolle et al 2003 using the succession of twentieth century earthquakes as sources of deformation we then analyze the time dependent change in coulomb failure stress f at remote interaction distances static f values are small however modeled postseismic stress changes typically accumulate to several tenths of a bar over time intervals of decades almost all significant twentieth century regional earthquakes m 6 with well constrained fault geometry lie in positive f lobes of magnitude about 0 5 bar our results suggest that significant stress transfer is possible among continental faults separated by hundreds of kilometers and on timescales of decades

modelling of stress patterns along the western part of the north anatolian fault zone abstract the stress field before and after strong m 6 earthquakes in the western part of the north anatolian fault zone is modelled assuming an initially homogeneous state of stress the elastic co seismic stress drops the inelastic post seismic stress variations and the increase of stress due to plate motion are taken into account using the theory of dislocations the model consists of an elastic layer upper crust above a half space which is described by elastic properties and alternatively by a standard linear solid the results of the latter inelastic model differ only slightly from that of the purely elastic one one of the main results is that most of the earthquakes fall into regions for which the model calculations predict high stress levels prior to the events at present the highest stress values are obtained for an area around 34 e to 35 e they are higher than the average pre seismic stress value for the series of eight earthquakes investigated in this study all results are critically dependent on the assumption of the initial stress field being homogeneous along the western part of the north anatolian fault zone

delayed triggering of the 1999 hector mine earthquake by viscoelastic stress transfer stress changes in the crust due to an earthquake can hasten the failure of neighbouring faults and induce earthquake sequences in some cases1 2 3 4 5 the 1999 hector mine earthquake in southern california magnitude 7 1 occurred only 20 km from and 7 years after the 1992 landers earthquake magnitude 7 3 this suggests that the hector mine earthquake was triggered in some fashion by the earlier event but uncertainties in the slip distribution and rock friction properties associated with the landers earthquake have led to widely varying estimates of both the magnitude and sign of the resulting stress change that would be induced at the location of the hector mine hypocentre with estimates varying from 1 4 bar ref 6 to 0 5 bar ref 7 more importantly coseismic stress changes alone cannot satisfactorily explain the delay of 7 years between the two events here we present the results of a three dimensional viscoelastic model that simulates stress transfer from the ductile lower crust and upper mantle to the brittle upper crust in the 7 years following the landers earthquake using viscoelastic parameters that can reproduce the observed horizontal surface deformation following the landers earthquake our calculations suggest that lower crustal or upper mantle flow can lead to postseismic stress increases of up to 1 2 bar at the location of the hector mine hypocentre during this time period contributing to the eventual occurrence of the 1999 hector mine earthquake these results attest to the importance of considering viscoelastic processes in the assessment of seismic hazard8 9 10 11

triggering of earthquake aftershocks by dynamic stresses it is thought that small static stress changes due to permanent fault displacement can alter the likelihood of or trigger earthquakes on nearby faults many studies of triggering in the near field particularly of aftershocks rely on these static changes as the triggering agent and consider them only in terms of equivalent changes in the applied load on the fault here we report a comparison of the aftershock pattern of the moment magnitude mw 7 3 landers earthquake not only with static stress changes but also with transient oscillatory stress changes transmitted as seismic waves that is dynamic stresses dynamic stresses do not permanently change the applied load and thus can trigger earthquakes only by altering the mechanical state or properties of the fault zone these dynamically weakened faults may fail after the seismic waves have passed by and might even cause earthquakes that would not otherwise have occurred we find similar asymmetries in the aftershock and dynamic stress patterns the latter being due to rupture propagation whereas the static stress changes lack this asymmetry previous studies have shown that dynamic stresses can promote failure at remote distances but here we show that they can also do so nearby

post seismic motion following the 1997 manyi tibet earthquake insar observations and modelling summary on november 8 1997 a mw 7 6 earthquake occurred in the manyi region of northern tibet near the western end of the kunlun fault over 7 m of left lateral slip occurred on a 200 kmlong fault here we use insar observations of post seismic surface deformation following the manyi earthquake to investigate possible causal mechanisms time series of deformation are constructed from 26 interferograms covering the entire length of the fault for nearly 4 yr after the earthquake three different modelling approaches are used to try and understand the observed variations in surface displacement first order poroelastic models predict displacement fields which do not match those observed modelling of viscoelastic stress relaxation in a half space with standard linear solid rheology beneath an elastic lid provides a reasonable fit to the observations and demonstrates that two relaxation times are needed to characterize the post seismic transient the best fitting viscosity is 4 10 18 pa s and the fully relaxed shear modulus is 32 per cent of the purely elastic value a model with a maxwell viscoelastic halfspace underlying the lid cannot explain the observations at later times larger viscosities are required than at earlier times this increase in effective viscosity with time may be consistent with stress relaxation occurring in a power law rheology the time series are also inverted for distributed afterslip on an extension of the coseismic rupture along strike correlation of coseismic and post seismic slip maxima suggests that afterslip is a plausible mechanism the maximum slip in the afterslip model is 0 72 m after 3 yr and the equivalent moment release is approximately 20 per cent of the coseismic moment this study shows that it is possible to rule out certain mechanisms as the dominant post seismic process but with the current insar data set it is difficult to distinguish between other plausible options

the sturgeon falls paleosol and the composition of the atmosphere 1 1 ga bp a paleosol is exposed along the north bank of the sturgeon river some 25 km sw of baraga michigan the paleosol was developed on hydrothermally altered keweenawan basalt and is overlain by the jacobsville sandstone textures mineralogy and chemical composition change gradually upwards from unweathered metabasalt through the paleosol to the contact of the paleosol with the jacobsville sandstone many of these changes are similar to those in modern soils developed on basaltic rocks however k has clearly been added to the paleosol probably by solutions which had equilibrated with k feldspar in the jacobsville sandstone the keweenawan basalt was oxidized quite extensively during its conversion to greenstone during weathering the remaining fe2 was oxidized to fe3 and was retained in the paleosol the composition of the parent greenstone and its change during weathering can be used to define an approximate lower limit to the ratio of the o2 pressure to the co2 pressure in the atmosphere during the formation of the paleosol formula see text free o2 must have been present in the atmosphere 1 1 ga ago but its partial pressure could have been 10 3 times lower than in the atmosphere today

modeling stress changes induced by earthquakes in the southern marlborough region south island new zealand between 1888 and 1994 a series of seven earthquakes of m w 5 9 7 2 occurred within a 150 km by 150 km area southern marlborough region directly east of the alpine fault major strike slip faults in this region including the hope kakapo and clarence faults serve to transfer plate motion from the alpine fault northeastward to the hikurangi subduction zone we have modeled induced changes in coulomb failure stress cfs to determine whether stress triggering could have occurred during this sequence and to determine how the earthquakes have affected stress along the north westland segment of the alpine fault which appears to have last ruptured in this region in a d 1717 we included the effects of secular stress accumulation on the four most rapidly slipping faults in the region alpine awatere clarence and hope but neglected the effects of viscoelastic relaxation our results suggest that at least six of seven earthquakes and possibly all seven events when uncertainties in earthquake location and focal mechanism are considered occurred in regions where cfs exceeded 10 kpa indicating stress triggering may have occurred although cfs exceeds 10 kpa along most of the north westland segment of the alpine fault at depths of 10 km or less cfs is less than 10 kpa at depths of 10 km or more if rupture for large alpine fault events initiates at depths of 10 km or more then this result implies that the induced stress since 1848 has not brought this segment significantly closer to failure manuscript received 1 february 2001

slip distribution along the north anatolian fault associated with the large earthquakes of the period 1939 to 1967 abstract between 1939 and 1967 six large fault ruptures formed a westward migrating sequence of events along a 900 km long nearly continuous portion of the north anatolian fault for these events the 1939 erzincan 1942 niksar erbaa 1943 tosya 1944 bolu gerede 1957 abant and 1967 mudurnu valley earthquakes i have compiled a record of dextral slip which contains nearly 100 points these data indicate that the amount of slip is irregularly distributed along the 1939 to 1967 rupture zone the maximum slip 7 5 m occurred during the 1939 earthquake in the eastern 150 km of the 900 km long rupture zone dextral offsets diminish very abruptly eastward but very gradually westward the rate of westward decrease in the 1939 to 1967 offsets is only slightly greater than the rate of westward decrease of post miocene displacement along the north anatolian fault this suggests that westward decrease in slip can be expected to be a general characteristic of earthquake ruptures along the north anatolian fault in the future nevertheless within the 1939 to 1967 slip distribution there are three regions that had less slip than the neighboring regions these i interpret as possible sites of large future earthquakes one of these seismic gaps has already experienced another earthquake in 1951 and subsequent creep

recalculated probability of m 7 earthquakes beneath the sea of marmara turkey 1 new earthquake probability calculations are made for the sea of marmara region and the city of istanbul providing a revised forecast and an evaluation of time dependent interaction techniques calculations incorporate newly obtained bathymetric images of the north anatolian fault beneath the sea of marmara le pichon et al 2001 armijo et al 2002 newly interpreted fault segmentation enables an improved regional a d 1500 2000 earthquake catalog and interevent model which form the basis for time dependent probability estimates calculations presented here also employ detailed models of coseismic and postseismic slip associated with the 17 august 1999 m 7 4 izmit earthquake to investigate effects of stress transfer on seismic hazard probability changes caused by the 1999 shock depend on marmara sea fault stressing rates which are calculated with a new finite element model the combined 2004 2034 regional poisson probability of m 7 earthquakes is 38 the regional time dependent probability is 44 18 and incorporation of stress transfer raises it to 53 18 the most important effect of adding time dependence and stress transfer to the calculations is an increase in the 30 year probability of a m 7 earthquake affecting istanbul the 30 year poisson probability at istanbul is 21 and the addition of time dependence and stress transfer raises it to 41 14 the ranges given on probability values are sensitivities of the calculations to input parameters determined by monte carlo analysis 1000 calculations are made using parameters drawn at random from distributions sensitivities are large relative to mean probability values and enhancements caused by stress transfer reflecting a poor understanding of large earthquake aperiodicity index terms 7223 seismology seismic hazard assessment and prediction 7230 seismology seismicity and seismotectonics 8150 tectonophysics plate boundary general 3040 keywords earthquake probability sea of marmara seismic hazard turkey stress interaction north anatolian fault

viscoelastic stress triggering of the 1999 hector mine earthquake by the 1992 landers earthquake the 1999 mw 7 1 hector mine earthquake occurred only 20 km from the 1992 mw 7 3 landers earthquake fault the close spacing between the two earthquakes suggests that the landers earthquake trigger the hector mine event based on an elastic half space model scientists from the usgs scec and cdmg 2000 have found a negative coulomb stress change at the hector mine hypocenter due to landers this negative stress change is inconsistent with the hypothesis of static stress triggering in this paper i show evidence of stress triggering of the hector mine earthquake by landers due to a process governed by viscoelastic flow in the lower crust this visoelastic flow has produced broad scale postseismic rebound observed by gps and insar measurements the result of this study is that viscoelastic flow has significantly modified the regional stress field in the mojave desert after the landers earthquake the evolving stress field including viscoelastic flow has gradually moved the coulomb stress change at the hector mine hypocenter to a positive level the increase in coulomb stress exceeded 1 bar right before the hector mine earthquake bringing the hector mine ruptures to the proximity of catastrophic failure

interseismic strain accumulation across the manyi fault tibet prior to the 1997 mw 7 6 earthquake 1 the coseismic displacements caused by the mw 7 6 1997 manyi strike slip earthquake have been extensively studied in order to assess whether the current deformation around the manyi fault is due to one or more postseismic mechanisms and to constrain the rate state models of afterslip an estimate of the interseismic motion across the fault prior to the earthquake is needed we use esa ers data to form 20 interferograms covering the five year period of 1992 1997 which are combined using a multi interferogram method to calculate a map of line of sight velocities inverting this velocity map using a monte carlo method we estimate relative motion across the fault of 3 2 mm yr prior to the 1997 earthquake one third the rate of other major faults in the area such as the kunlun and the altyn tagh faults the locking depth is poorly resolved but is estimated to be 22 15 km the localised pattern of deformation observed suggest that the viscosity of the lower crust and upper mantle in the manyi area is greater than 4 1018 pa s proposed by previous postseismic studies of the area we find no evidence of significant deformation across possible westward extensions of the kunlun fault these rates of interseismic deformation are much smaller than the rates still being observed today 10 years after the event indicating the current rates must be due to one of the postseismic deformation mechanisms

reappraisal of a 2200 ma old paleosol near waterval onder south africa abstract a fossil soil paleosol about 2200 ma old in a deep roadcut between the towns of waterval boven and waterval onder transvaal here called the waterval onder clay paleosol was formerly reported to have formed on the hekpoort basalt it is here thought to have developed on a thick formerly at least 5 5 m upward fining and thinning sequence of sandstone siltstone and shale derived from pre existing soils on hekpoort basalt within the basal portion of the fluvial dwaal heuvel formation in contrast to paleosols developed on hekpoort basalt the waterval onder clay paleosol is little deformed lacks corestones and shows compositional variation and berthierine rich laminae interpreted as relict bedding the paleosol has a ridge and swale topography linear or wavy gilgai and a subsurface structure mukkara typical of modern vertisols since there is considerable relict bedding it probably formed over a short period of time less than 7000 years and was not self plowing to the extent seen in modern vertisols clastic dikes filled with sandstone from the overlying rocks are evidence that the profile was periodically dry to depths of at least 2 m more drab colored rocks below that may represent the level of permanent water table iron and manganese stain of layers and claystone granules within the surface horizon of the profile have some characteristics of modern rock varnish and could be taken as evidence for life in the soil the high ratio of ferric to ferrous iron near the surface of the paleosol together with evidence from clastic dikes that this horizon was not waterlogged is an indication of an oxidizing atmosphere although probably one in which oxygen was much less abundant than it is today the very low amounts of acid titratable bases in the shaly parent material of this paleosol and surficial loss of these bases within the paleosol appear to have been produced by decarbonation reactions comparable to those found today in soils of vascular land plants a likely source of weathering acid during the precambrian is an elevated abundance of atmospheric carbon dioxide considering these likely atmospheric differences together with the distribution of comparable modern vertisols and other geological evidence the climate under which this soil formed was probably semiarid to subhumid seasonally dry and temperate

stress transfer and nonlinear stress accumulation at the north anatolian fault turkey an analysis is presented of the accumulation of stress along the north anatolian fault the analysis is based on the time dependent reloading of the plate boundary by using a modified elsasser model of a coupled lithosphere asthenosphere system

a dislocation model for the earthquake cycle at convergent plate boundaries summary a kinematic model for the earthquake cycle at convergent plate boundaries has been constructed on the basis of dislocation theory we model the lithosphere asthenosphere system by a stratified semi infinite medium under gravity consisting of an elastic surface layer an intervening layer with maxwell viscoelasticity and an elastic substratum the steady motion of plate convergence is naturally represented by uniform slip at a constant rate on the upper boundary of the descending oceanic plate the occurrence of interplate earthquakes is regarded as a perturbation of the steady state plate motion and represented by a periodic sequence of step slips on a finite seismic zone of the plate interface based on dislocation theory we can show that the steady slip on the interface deeper than the lithosphereasthenosphere boundary does not contribute to surface deformation in the steady state accordingly the surface deformation associated with the earthquake cycle is given by the superposition of viscoelastic responses to the steady slip on the interface shallower than the lithosphere asthenosphere boundary the steady backslip on the seismic zone and the periodic sequence of seismic slips we have computed cyclic patterns of vertical displacements at the free surface for two representative cases taking account of gravity effects the patterns of vertical displacements differ notably in the latter stage of the cycle depending on whether or not the seismic zone extends through the entire thickness of the lithosphere after the completion of one earthquake cycle our model yields a certain amount of permanent deformation resulting from the steady plate convergence the pattern of the permanent deformation that is characterized by steep uplift on the continental side sharp subsidence at the plate boundary and gentle uplift on the oceanic side is irrespective of the cyclic process of stress accumulation and release repeated on the seismic zone the earthquake cycle model developed here provides a possible explanation for the formation of earthquake origin marine terraces

viscosity of oceanic asthenosphere inferred from remote triggering of earthquakes a sequence of large interplate earthquakes from 1952 to 1965 along the aleutian arc and kurile kamchatka trench released accumulated stresses along nearly the entire northern portion of the pacific plate boundary the postseismic stress evolution across the northern pacific and arctic basins calculated from a viscoelastic coupling model with an asthenospheric viscosity of 5 x 10 17 pascal seconds is consistent with triggering of oceanic intraplate earthquakes temporal patterns in seismicity at remote plate boundaries and space based geodetic measurements of anomalous velocity over an area 7000 by 7000 kilometers square during the 30 year period after the sequence

evidence of anoxic to oxic atmospheric change during 2 45 2 22 ga from lower and upper sub huronian paleosols canada paleoweathered zones in four underground drill holes in quirke ii mine and one drill hole by denison mines in elliot lake area ontario canada were studied for petrography mineralogy and whole rock chemistry these paleosols formed beneath 2 45 ga old lower huronian formations are characterized by upward depletion of fetotal and fe3 in the whole rock by upward depletion of fetotal fe mg ratios in chlorites and fine grained muscovite and by the presence of fe2 minerals e g pyrite pyrrhotite ilmenite in contrast the paleosols underlying upper huronian strata 2 22 ga old exhibit an upward increase in fe3 and fetotal and contain hematite and goethite uraninite and pyrite bearing paleoplacers occur in lower huronian strata whereas the upper huronian formations contain red beds and are devoid of detrital uraninite and pyrite these differences between the sub huronian paleoweathering profiles and mineralogical characteristics of the lower huronian strata overlying the paleosols support the previously postulated oxyatmoversion theory and restricts the time interval for its occurrence to between 2 45 and 2 22 ga assuming that few tens of millions of years were required for the deposition of lower huronian groups oxyatmoversion likely occurred at about 2 4 ga

sediment and basalt hosted regoliths in the huronian supergroup role of parent lithology in middle precambrian weathering profiles weathering profiles developed side by side on sandstone and a mafic dike provide an unusual opportunity to examine the role of parent rock bulk composition in the chemical evolution of middle precambrian regoliths because the profiles are adjacent to one another differences in topography can be eliminated in accounting for differences in the chemical evolution of the two profiles both profiles show upward increases in al ti k and rb and decreases in mg ca and na in addition the mafic regolith increases upward in zr and nb and decreases in zn and ni total fe decreases upward in both profiles but the sandstone profile retains significantly more of its initial fe than does the mafic dike this difference in fe loss is consistent with weathering in a low oxygen atmosphere of rock types with very different initial fe contents and therefore different atmospheric requirements for complete oxidation of the fe present the fe in the sandstone was mostly oxidized and retained within the profile whereas

continuous deformation of the tibetan plateau from global positioning system data global positioning system velocities from 553 control points within the tibetan plateau and on its margins show that the present day tectonics in the plateau is best described as deformation of a continuous medium at least when averaged over distances of 100 km deformation occurs throughout the plateau interior by ese wnw extension and slightly slower nne ssw shortening relative to eurasia material within the plateau interior moves roughly eastward with speeds that increase toward the east and then flows southward around the eastern end of the himalaya crustal thickening on the northeast ern and eastern margins of the plateau occurs over a zone 400 km wide and cannot be the result of elastic strain on a single major thrust fault shortening there accommodates much of india s penetration into eurasia a description in terms of movements of rigid blocks with elastic strain associated with slip on faults between them cannot match the velocity field

metamorphic alteration of a precambrian 2 2 ga paleosol from south africa revealed by backscattered electron imaging abstract like many precambrian paleosols the 2200 ma old waterval onder clay has been metamorphosed to the greenschist facies of regional metamorphism the extent of metamorphic alteration of the fine grained uppermost horizons of the paleosol is assessed here using optical and backscattered electron microscopy in hand specimens and under low power optical examination the paleosol shows surficial lamination cumulic horizon of soil terminology rounded clasts coated with opaque sesquioxides manganoferriargillans cracks defining a fitted breccia of blocks that were evidently soft in places blocky angular peds cracks filled with multiple generations of material from above illuviation argillans and zones of unusually highly birefringent clay climobimasepic plasmic fabric with backscattered electron microscopy however at a resolution of less than about 10 m the fine structure of originally colloidal parts of the paleosol mangans argillans matrix and plasma separations is shown to be extensively recrystallized to illite and berthierine original soil structure has been obscured at this resolution by crystal growth at random across original microscopic discontinuities preferred orientation of metamorphic crystals can still be seen along what are presumed to be highly birefringent zones of oriented clay similar to those in modern soils but the matrix itself shows random clusters of crystals suggestive of an advanced stage of illitization by ostwald ripening the style of recrystallization of laminae in the surface horizon is similar to that seen lower in the profile where recrystallized beds are thicker and coarser grained thus the paleosol probably formed on an upward thinning and fining sequence of sandstone and shale rather than on basalt on this assumption the profile has gained iron compared with its shaly parent material rather than lost iron compared with basalt this may be an indication of greater oxygenation of the atmosphere than previously thought possible microbial traces can be seen in thin section but because of pervasive recrystallization these remain dubiofossils

postseismic relaxation across the central nevada seismic belt 1 two gps geodetic surveys across the basin and range br province of western north america have detected an anomalous compression east of the central nevada seismic belt cnsb the first network installed by the u s geological survey along an east west trending transect across the br at approximately 40 n consisted of 63 monuments observed campaign style in 1992 1996 and 1998 the second network installed by the california institute of technology consisted of 50 continuously operating gps receivers 18 of which were roughly along the same transect as the campaign survey we have used a viscoelastic postseismic relaxation model of the four largest earthquakes in the cnsb on the pleasant valley fault in 1915 the cedar mountain fault in 1932 and on the fairview peak and dixie valley faults in 1954 to interpret the geodetic velocities observed across the cnsb a model of postseismic relaxation with a lower crustal maxwell viscosity of 5 50 1018 pa s can explain the apparent compression regardless of the assumed mantle viscosity the geodetic velocities that we determined after removing the postseismic contribution indicate that within current gps detection limits the br is stable east of the cnsb and is undergoing rapid right lateral shear west of the cnsb

stress coupling between earthquakes in northwest turkey and the north aegean sea we have investigated the coulomb stress interactions of 29 earthquakes m s greater than or equal to 6 0 that have occurred in the region of northwest turkey and north aegean sea since 1912 of these events 23 may be related to earlier events and 16 are clearly related to earlier events all events after 1967 are related to previous events events in the early part of our time interval that show no correlation could be related to historical events as yet unidentified in some cases faults that have received a stress reduction from earlier events are prepared for an event by an earthquake occurring a few years before that creates a local coulomb stress rise thus regions of coulomb stress shadow can become regions where a damaging earthquake may occur the relation between smaller events and the coulomb stress distribution is less clear but may be related to poor data quality and practical limitations of our modeling technique nonetheless there are 4 times as many events per unit area in regions of enhanced stress than where stress is reduced we discuss the contemporary distribution of coulomb stress and argue that it is possible to identify the likely locations of future damaging earthquakes including identifying the most likely candidate faults

weak ductile shear zone beneath a major strike slip fault inferences from earthquake cycle model constrained by geodetic observations of the western north anatolian fault zone gps data before and after the 1999 izmit duzce earthquakes on the north anatolian fault zone turkey reveal a preseismic strain localization within about 25 km of the fault and a rapid postseismic transient using 3 d finite element calculations of the earthquake cycle in an idealized model of the crust comprising elastic above maxwell viscoelastic layers we show that spatially varying viscosity in the crust can explain these observations depth dependent viscosity without lateral variations can reproduce some of the observations but cannot explain the proximity to the fault of maximum postseismic velocities a localized weak zone beneath the faulted elastic lid satisfactorily explains the observations if the weak zone extends down to midcrustal depths and the ratio of relaxation time to earthquake repeat time ranges from 0 005 to 0 01 for weak zone widths of 24 and 40 km respectively in the weakened domain and greater than 1 0 elsewhere corresponding to viscosities of 1018 0 3 pa s and greater than 1020 pa s models with sharp weak zone boundaries fit the data better than those with a smooth viscosity increase away from the fault implying that the weak zone may be bounded by a relatively abrupt change in material properties such a change might result from lithological contrast grain size reduction fabric development or water content in addition to any effects from shear heating our models also imply that viscosities inferred from postseismic studies primarily reflect the rheology of the weak zone and should not be used to infer the mechanical properties of normal crust

chemistry and mineralogy of precambrian paleosols at the base of the dominion and pongola groups transvaal south africa abstract we have studied alteration zones found between sedimentary rocks of the lowest proterozoic dominion and archean pongola groups and underlying granitic rocks transvaal south africa the alteration zones have a transitional lower boundary primary igneous minerals are gradually destroyed upward toward the contact with overlying sedimentary rocks ca mg na p and mn are progressively lost upwards in the zone the chemical and mineralogical variations and available stratigraphic evidence are all consistent with the interpretation that these zones are paleosols formed by precambrian weathering 2 8 3 0 ga ago after formation the paleosols underwent metasomatism and metamorphism sericite now present in the paleosols was probably formed by low temperature potassium metasomatism of original clays andalusite in the pre pongola paleosol was probably formed by metamorphism of original clays in impermeable zones which prevented groundwater flow and potassium metasomatism the dominion paleosol was investigated at three localities the effects of weathering were similar at the three sites except for the behavior of iron one site lost about 20 of iron whereas the other sites lost 75 and 80 of initial iron content the differences in iron loss may be due to variation in soil ventilation and diffusion of atmospheric gases as a function of grain size and topography variations in iron loss may be used to place some constraints on the composition of the precambrian atmosphere given constraints imposed by dominion paleosols overlying uraniferous conglomerates requirements for chemical weathering and the greenhouse effect and possible presence of non diffusing photochemical oxidants the partial pressures of oxygen and carbon dioxide gases probably are in the ranges po1 0 02 to 0 5 pal present atmospheric level and pco2 5 to 30 pal

seismicity of the sea of marmara turkey since 1500 summary we use the earthquake history of the last 500 years to help evaluate the tectonic and hazard contexts of the1999 earthquakes at izmit and dzce in westernturkey the 20th century has been unusually active but over the 500 year period the seismic moment release can account for the known right lateral shear velocity across the marmara region observed by gps two areas of known late quaternary faulting stand out as unusually quiet over this period the northwest shore of the sea of marmara and the southern branch of the north anatolian fault system between bursa and mudurnu

the 11 april 2012 east indian ocean earthquake triggered large aftershocks worldwide although strong remote aftershocks are exceedingly rare their rate increased fivefold during the six days following the 2012 east indian ocean earthquake perhaps as a result of the strike slip nature of the 2012 event or a build up of close to failure nucleation sites

reconciling viscoelastic models of postseismic and interseismic deformation effects of viscous shear zones and finite length ruptures we have developed a suite of earthquake cycle models for strike slip faults to investigate how finite ruptures and lithosphere scale viscous shear zones affect interseismic deformation in particular we assess whether localized and stationary interseismic deformation and large scale rapidly decaying postseismic transients may be explained with models incorporating either or both of these features models incorporating viscous shear zones give more stationary interseismic deformation than layered half space maxwell viscoelastic models producing similar early postseismic deformation in the near field this tendency is accentuated when the effective viscosity per unit width of the shear zone increases either with depth or with interseismic time models with finite 200 km long ruptures produce time dependent deformation similar to that from models with infinitely long ruptures though with smaller magnitude and somewhat more localized surface velocity fluctuations models incorporating a stiff lithosphere a low viscosity mantle asthenosphere and a crust to lithosphere scale viscous shear zone can replicate postseismic and interseismic deformation typical of large strike slip earthquakes such models require depth dependent power law or transient rheologies for the viscous shear zone material in the crust as long as the effective viscosity per unit shear zone width is approximately 1015 pa s m at crustal depths during the postseismic interval below the moho the shear zone effective viscosity per unit width must be higher throughout the seismic cycle at least over a short depth interval for example if shear zone viscosity per unit width is 5 1016 pa s m in the mantle lithosphere a model with a 50 km thick lithosphere and asthenosphere effective viscosities of 1 to 5 1018 pa s can reproduce reference velocity profiles for both postseismic and later interseismic deformation

formation and diagenesis of a sub huronian saprolith comparison with a modern weathering profile an early proterozoic paleosol that preserves archean granite protolith textures occurs beneath the lorrain formation in the early proterozoic huronian supergroup near ville marie quebec textural mineralogical and geochemical comparisons between this saprolith and a modern weathering profile developed on the devonian toorongo granodiorite in eastern australia indicate similarities that can be attributed to the effects of primary weathering reactions the comparison also reveals anomalous features at ville marie that are caused by diagenetic reactions between the weathered granite and meteoric waters k metasomatism in the form of sericite replacement of kandites is ubiquitous in the ville marie saprolith zone and is ascribed to reaction of low na k meteoric waters with the weathered profile as they moved along a relatively permeable unconformity surface earlier diagenetic reactions may have produced calcite alteration occurring in a thin zone at the base of the profile thought to represent the po

stress triggering of the 1999 hector mine earthquake by transient deformation following the 1992 landers earthquake the m 7 3 june 28 1992 landers and m 7 1 october 16 1999 hector mine earthquakes california both right lateral strike slip events on nnw trending subvertical faults occurred in close proximity in space and time in a region where recurrence times for surface rupturing earthquakes are thousands of years this sug gests a causal role for the landers earthquake in triggering the hector mine earth quake previous modeling of the static stress change associated with the landers earthquake shows that the area of peak hector mine slip lies where the coulomb failure stress promoting right lateral strike slip failure was high but the nucleation point of the hector mine rupture was neutrally to weakly promoted depending on the assumed coefficient of friction possible explanations that could account for the 7 year delay between the two ruptures include background tectonic stressing dissi pation of fluid pressure gradients rate and state dependent friction effects and post landers viscoelastic relaxation of the lower crust and upper mantle by employing a viscoelastic model calibrated by geodetic data collected during the time period between the landers and hector mine events we calculate that postseismic relaxa tion produced a transient increase in coulomb failure stress of about 0 7 bars on the impending hector mine rupture surface the increase is greatest over the broad surface that includes the 1999 nucleation point and the site of peak slip further north since stress changes of magnitude greater than or equal to 0 1 bar are associated with documented causal fault interactions elsewhere viscoelastic relaxation likely con tributed to the triggering of the hector mine earthquake this interpretation relies on the assumption that the faults occupying the central mojave desert i e both the landers and hector mine rupturing faults were critically stressed just prior to the landers earthquake

time dependent distributed afterslip on and deep below the izmit earthquake rupture surface deformation transients measured with the global positioning system during the 87 days between the 17 august 1999 izmit earthquake and the 12 november 1999 duzce earthquake indicate rapidly decaying aseismic fault slip on and well below the coseismic rupture elastic model inversions for time dependent distributed fault slip using a network inversion filter approach show that afterslip was highest between and below the regions of maximum coseismic slip and propa gated downward to or even below the base of the crust maximum afterslip rates decayed from greater than 2 m yr immediately after the i zmit earthquake to about 1 2 m yr just prior to the duzce earthquake maximum afterslip occurred below the eastern karadere rupture segment and near the i zmit hypocenter afterslip in the upper 16 km decayed more rapidly than that below the seismogenic zone these observations are consistent with a phase of rapid aseismic fault slip concentrated near the base of the seismogenic zone continued loading from the rapid deep afterslip along the eastern rupture zone is a plausible mechanism that helped trigger the nearby mw 7 2 12 november duzce earthquake

postseismic stress diffusion in chile and south peru abstract by means of a spherical model of global postseismic deformation we perform an analysis of the postseismic stress diffusion process associated with the main seismic events which occurred in chile and south peru in the last century our aim is to ascertain if the viscoelastic relaxation of the mantle and asthenosphere following the earthquakes superimposed on the main mechanism of stress accumulation in the lithosphere that is to say the subduction process has in some way influenced the spatiotemporal pattern of seismic energy release in this region our investigations focus particularly on the areas where two important seismic gaps in an advanced mature state can be recognized we found that the evolution of the postseismic stress might give a satisfactory explanation for the anomalous duration of the seismic quiescence in the gap areas and also for the possible filling of one of these gaps

remote triggered seismicity caused by the 2011 m9 0 tohoku oki japan earthquake 1 seismic waves from large earthquakes have been shown to trigger seismicity large distances from a mainshock and this is termed remotely or dynamically triggered seismicity we performed a global search for seismicity potentially triggered by the seismic waves from the 2011 m9 0 tohoku oki japan earthquake using seismograms from global seismic networks and an event catalog we search for earthquakes and tremors instantaneously triggered during the passing of the seismic waves as well as for statistically significant changes in local and global seismic rates after the passing of the waves for earthquakes we find potential cases of instantaneous triggering in the united states russia china ecuador and mexico while for tremors we find evidence for triggering in taiwan armenia cuba and the united states in addition we observed a potential case of delayed triggering of larger magnitude earthquakes including a m5 2 in baja california mexico

multiple alteration events in the history of a sub huronian regolith at lauzon bay ontario confusion exists over the usefulness of chemical data from precambrian weathering profiles in constraining models of atmospheric evolution one difficulty is in correctly identifying ancient weathering effects and isolating them from numerous other processes that are likely to have affected such ancient rocks in this study of a middle precambrian granitic weathering profile we have used several analytical techniques to separate weathering related chemical and mineralogical changes from those resulting from other processes the profile is exposed beneath the huronian at lauzon bay in the blind river area of ontario and has a complex history of alteration events addition of allochthonous material and low grade metamorphism much of this history can be deciphered and changes in mineralogy and bulk and mineral chemistry can be assigned to separate alteration events specifically the granite has undergone preweathering albitization resulting in na enrichment followed by chemical weathering that corrode

the proterozoic thelon paleosol northwest territories canada abstract beneath the 1 72 ga thelon formation in the northwestern part of the canadian shield an unmetamorphosed and undeformed paleosol is preserved on a variety of paleoproterozoic and archean protoliths this paper documents the paleosol referred to as the thelon paleosol in four localities where it developed on leucocratic schist gneiss and granite the thelon paleosol is characterized by these ascending changes from fresh protolith through paleosol to the unconformity a saprolitic disruption of the protolith resulting in ped and ferran formation b reddening of the paleosol as a consequence of hematitization c increase in dissolution of feldspar plagioclase alkali feldspar increase in the degree of iron oxidation in biotite chlorite and garnet and an increase in the abundance of neoform kaolinite illite and hematite cement d a loss of tio2 fe2o3 total feo mno mgo cao na2o k2o p2o5 u zr rb sr ba e a gain of fe2o3 and f an increase in cia values the fabric of the parent material appears to be the only soil forming factor that locally influenced paleosol development in comparison to thin profiles developed on massive relatively impervious protoliths thick profiles have developed on metamorphic protoliths in which the fabric has allowed deeper penetration of paleoweathering fluids the behaviour of iron in the profiles particularly profile 2 with a granite protolith and an increase in hematite towards the top of the profiles suggests that the thelon paleosol formed under an oxidizing atmosphere subsequent deposition of quartzose conglomerate and sandstone of the thelon formation has caused compaction of the thelon paleosol and this compaction probably was responsible for the formation of stylocumulates in the paleosol during diagenesis of the thelon formation the influx of diagenetic fluids into the paleosol produced veinlets of quartz and hematite a newly recognized microcrystalline hydrated alumino phosphate sulphate mineral and widespread pseudomorphs of illite after pedogenic vermiform kaolinite

the role of viscoelastic stress transfer in long term earthquake cascades insights after the central italy 2016 2017 seismic sequence central italy is characterized by a network of active faults that interact in a complex manner coseismic coulomb stress changes have been invoked by several authors to explain the concentration of moderate to strong earthquakes in this region but none has considered the time dependent viscoelastic relaxation of the lower crust and upper mantle as a possible additional source of stress changes at a regional scale here starting from the 1915 m w 6 9 0 2 fucino earthquake we calculated the coseismic plus postseismic coulomb failure stress changes cfs due to eight moderate to strong earthquakes that have struck central italy in the last century and culminated with the 2016 2017 sequence results from this modeling coupled with some synthetic tests simulating normal fault earthquakes with different magnitudes allowed us to highlight the importance of postseismic processes in particular the viscoelastic stress transfer due to events of m w 6 5 can modify the spatial distribution of cfs on a centennial timescale and therefore trigger events at larger distances in addition using these results we identified other earthquake clusters in the historical catalogue last 618 years which like the 1915 2017 series were potentially modulated by both coseismic and postseismic processes finally considering our calculations combined with historical and paleoseismological data we suggest that several faults in central italy may be at present close to failure

evidence for 2 0 ga continental microbial mats in a paleodesert setting abstract early evolved microbial communities characterized the initial biological invasion of precambrian continental landscapes in modern arid settings microbial mats and biological soil crusts are well developed and stabilize sediment the paleoproterozoic makgabeng formation in south africa is one of the oldest and best preserved dryland systems on earth six types of microbial mat related structures are now recognized within these depositional systems this paper presents three newly discovered structures that include tufted microbial mat biological soil crusts and gas escape features in addition to three previously documented structures that include roll up features sand cracks and wrinkled features these discoveries demonstrate that microbial communities were well established and inhabited diverse continental settings by 2 0 ga approximately 200 million years after the onset of the great oxidation event

evidence for climate shifts in the 2 0ga upper makgabeng formation erg south africa abstract eolian ergs and associated environs are sensitive to short and long term climatic changes in one of the oldest erg deposits the 2 0 ga makgabeng formation vertical changes in facies associations reflect one of the earliest records of short term climatic shifts in a continental setting the makgabeng formation is separated into lower and upper erg deposits by a playa or saline pan deposit the lower erg deposit consists of dune sets with thin lenses of dry and deflationary interdune strata that transition vertically to thicker damp to wet interdune strata a laterally persistent playa deposit in the middle of the section consists of mudstone with deep and shallow penetrating mud cracks and subordinate siltstone and sandstone interbeds above this lower mudstone interval the playa strata are sandy overlying the playa deposit the upper erg deposit consists of thick eolian sets with thin lenses of dry interdune deposits grain size change near the top of the upper erg deposit corresponds with the appearance of fluvial sheet flood eolian cross beds sculpted by mass flows and thin playa deposits vertical stacking of facies associations demonstrates temporal shifts in precipitation and fluctuating water tables fluvial and playa deposits record high water tables whereas low water tables are reflected in the core erg the transition from a lower to higher water table is recorded by wet interdune interspersed within the dune strata toward the top of this interval rapid climatic amelioration occurred near the termination of the makgabeng erg resulting in impingement of ephemeral river systems development of playas and generation of massive sand flows this 2 0 ga erg demonstrates the impact of climate change on erg development resulting from shifts in monsoonal impingement through time

static stress impact of the 1992 landers earthquake sequence on nucleation and slip at the site of the 1999 m 7 1 hector mine earthquake southern california the proximity in time 7 years and space 20 km between the 1992 m 7 3 landers earthquake and the 1999 m 7 1 hector mine event suggests a possible link between the quakes we thus calculated the static stress changes following the 1992 joshua tree landers big bear earthquake sequence on the 1999 m 7 1 hector mine rupture plane in southern california resolving the stress tensor into rake parallel and fault normal components and comparing with changes in the post landers seismicity rate allows us to estimate a coefficient of friction on the hector mine plane seismicity following the 1992 sequence increased at hector mine where the fault was unclamped this increase occurred despite a calculated reduction in right lateral shear stress the dependence of seismicity change primarily on normal stress change implies a high coefficient of static friction 0 8 we calculated the coulomb stress change using 0 8 and found that the hector mine hypocenter was mildly encouraged 0 5 bars by the 1992 earthquake sequence in addition the region of peak slip during the hector mine quake occurred where coulomb stress is calculated to have increased by 0 5 1 5 bars in general slip was more limited where coulomb stress was reduced though there was some slip where the strongest stress decrease was calculated interestingly many smaller earthquakes nucleated at or near the 1999 hector mine hypocenter after 1992 but only in 1999 did an event spread to become a m 7 1 earthquake

evolution of the stress field in southern california and triggering of moderate size earthquakes a 200 year perspective changes in stress in southern california are modeled from 1812 to 2025 using as input 1 stress drops associated with six large 7 0 7 5 earthquakes through 1995 and 2 stress buildup associated with major faults with slip rates 3 mm yr as constrained by geodetic paleoseismic and seismic measurements evolution of stress and the triggering of moderate to large earthquakes are treated in a tensoffal rather than a scalar manner we present snapshots of the cumulative coulomb failure function acff as a function of time for faults of various strike dip and rake throughout southern california we take acff to be zero everywhere just prior to the great shock of 1812 we find that about 95 of those well located m 6 earthquakes whose mechanisms involve either strike slip or reverse faulting are consistent with the coulomb stress evolutionary model that is they occurred in areas of positive acff the interaction between slow moving faults and stresses generated by faster moving faults significantly advanced the occurrence of the 1933 long beach and 1992 landers events in their earthquake cycles coulomb stresses near major thrust faults of the western and central transverse ranges have been accumulating for a long time future great earthquakes along the san andreas fault especially if the san bernardino and coachella valley segments rupture together can trigger moderate to large earthquakes in the transverse ranges as appears to have happened in the santa barbara earthquake that occurred 13 days after the great san andreas shock of 1812 maps of current acff provide additional guides to long term earthquake prediction

seismicity response to stress perturbations analysed for a world wide catalogue summary a statistical analysis of the relative distance and time delay separating pairs of earthquakes is performed to determine how a seismicity system evolves dynamically following a stress perturbation earthquake we analyse the space time correlations of a worldwide seismicity data set cnss catalogue 1963 1998 m 5 depth 70 km and show that seismic activity diffuses away from an earthquake as the time delay increases following its occurrence two regimes are observed a slow diffusion at short timescales up to 10 days during which the mean distance r t between the initial earthquake and the subsequent earthquakes grows as r t t h with h 0 19 and a second regime at longer timescales with h 0 4 the growth exponent h in the first regime increases systematically with the size of the initial earthquake but no such dependence is observed for the second regime associating the latter with the viscous diffusion of stress in the upper mantle we obtain an estimate of about 10 17 pa s for the asthenospheric lateral viscosity this diffusion indicates that the relaxation response of the crust to a stress step depends non linearly in respect of both its intensity and general form on the perturbation a positive correlation between the regional heat flow and diffusion exponent is found suggesting a strong thermal control on the diffusion the overall autodecorrelation and this diffusion process are the two major mechanisms by which seismicity systems relax stress concentrations by redistributing them in space and in time both processes exhibit typical power law behaviours supporting the notion of space time scale invariance of stress exchanges between seismically active faults

lower crustal relaxation beneath the tibetan plateau and qaidam basin following the 2001 kokoxili earthquake summary in 2001 november a magnitude 7 8 earthquake ruptured a 400 km long portion of the kunlun fault northeastern tibet in this study we analyse over five years of post seismic geodetic data and interpret the observed surface deformation in terms of stress relaxation in the thick tibetan lower crust we model gps time series first year and insar line of sight measurements years two to five and infer that the most likely mechanism of post seismic stress relaxation is time dependent distributed creep of viscoelastic material in the lower crust since a single relaxation time is not sufficient to model the observed deformation viscous flow is modelled by a lower crustal burgers rheology which has two material relaxation times the optimum model has a transient viscosity 9 1017 pa s steady state viscosity 1 1019 pa s and a ratio of long term to maxwell shear modulus of 2 3 this model gives a good fit to gps stations south of the kunlun fault while displacements at stations north of the fault are over predicted we attribute this asymmetry in the gps residual to lateral heterogeneity in rheological structure across the southern margin of the qaidam basin with thinner crust higher viscosities beneath the basin than beneath the tibetan plateau deep afterslip localized in a shear zone beneath the fault rupture gives a reasonable match to the observed insar data but the slip model does not fit the earlier gps data well we conclude that while some localized afterslip likely occurred during the early post seismic phase the bulk of the observed deformation signal is due to viscous flow in the lower crust to investigate regional variability in rheological structure we also analyse post seismic displacements following the 1997 manyi earthquake that occurred 250 km west of the kokoxili rupture we find that viscoelastic properties are the same as for the kokoxili area except for the transient viscosity which is 5 1017 pa s the viscosities estimated for the manyi and kokoxili areas are consistent with constraints obtained from other earthquakes in the northwest and south central parts of the tibetan plateau

postseismic deformation and stress changes following the 1819 rann of kachchh india earthquake was the 2001 bhuj earthquake a triggered event 1 the 2001 mw 7 6 bhuj earthquake occurred in an intra plate region with rather unusual active seismicity including an earlier major earthquake the 1819 rann of kachchh earthquake m7 7 we examine if static coseismic and transient postseismic deformation following the 1819 earthquake contributed to the enhanced seismicity in the region and the occurrence of the 2001 bhuj earthquake 100 km away and almost two centuries later based on the indian shield setting great rupture depth of the 2001 event and lack of significant early postseismic deformation measured following the 2001 event we infer that little viscous relaxation occurs in the lower crust and choose an upper mantle effective viscosity of 1019 pas the predicted coulomb failure stress dcfs on the rupture plane of the 2001 event increased by more than 0 1 bar at 20 km depth which is a small but possibly significant amount stress change from the 1819 event may have also affected the occurrence of other historic earthquakes in this region we also evaluate the postseismic deformation and cfs in this region due to the 2001 event positive cfs from the 2001 event occur to the nw and se of the bhuj earthquake rupture

earthquake nucleation on faults with rate and state dependent strength abstract dieterich j h 1992 earthquake nucleation on faults with rate and state dependent strength in t mikumo k aki m ohnaka l j ruff and p k p spudich editors earthquake source physics and earthquake precursors tectonophysics 211 115 134 faults with rate and state dependent constitutive properties reproduce a range of observed fault slip phenomena including spontaneous nucleation of slip instabilities at stresses above some critical stress level and recovery of strength following slip instability calculations with a plane strain fault model with spatially varying properties demonstrate that accelerating slip precedes instability and becomes localized to a fault patch the dimensions of the fault patch follow scaling relations for the minimum critical length for unstable fault slip the critical length is a function of normal stress loading conditions and constitutive parameters which include dc the characteristic slip distance if slip starts on a patch that exceeds the critical size the length of the rapidly accelerating zone tends to shrink to the characteristic size as the time of instability approaches solutions have been obtained for a uniform fixed patch model that are in good agreement with results from the plane strain model over a wide range of conditions above the steady state stress the logarithm of the time to instability linearly decreases as the initial stress increases because nucleation patch length and premonitory displacement are proportional to dc the moment of premonitory slip scales by d3c the scaling of dc is currently an open question unless dc for earthquake faults is significantly greater than that observed on laboratory faults premonitory strain arising from the nucleation process for earthquakes may by too small to detect using current observation methods excluding the possibility that dc in the nucleation zone controls the magnitude of the subsequent earthquake then the source dimensions of the smallest earthquakes in a region provide an upper limit for the size of the nucleation patch

viscoelastic deformation from north anatolian fault zone earthquakes and the eastern mediterranean gps velocity field 1 we have modeled linear viscoelastic relaxation of a uniform viscosity asthenosphere following large earthquakes in the aegean anatolian region during the 20th century to evaluate whether this process contributes significantly to the regional velocity field we address in particular whether southward motion of the aegean sea region relative to central anatolia and thus extension of western turkey can be attributed to a postseismic strain pulse our models show that postseismic relaxation of a thick 250 km viscoelastic substrate cannot generate the observed extension in western turkey regardless of the choice of viscosity we also find that the asthenosphere viscosity must exceed about 5 1020 pa s at least north of the north anatolian fault zone nafz to be consistent with low gps site velocities in the black sea region and highly localized strain around the fault

consequences of stress changes following the 1891 nobi earthquake japan abstract great earthquakes along the philippine sea interplate boundary central honshu usually rupture a large portion of the nankai trough and suruga trough however the 1944 tonankai and 1946 nankaido earthquakes the most recent great philippine sea events did not rupture the suruga trough mogi proposed that strain release from the 1891 nobi earthquake is responsible for the apparently premature northeast termination of the 1944 rupture zone using a recently derived fault model of the 1891 earthquake combined with a suitable rheological model of central honshu we quantify both the inland and offshore consequences of the nobi earthquake north of the median tectonic line the co seismic plus postseismic stress changes of the nobi earthquake promoted the failure of faults which subsequently ruptured in the decades following 1891 in contrast along the philippine sea interplate boundary the co seismic plus postseismic strain release of the nobi earthquake during the decades following 1891 has delayed the anticipated tokai earthquake by at least 20 yr

seismicity in the western great basin apparently triggered by the landers california earthquake 28 june 1992 within 24 hr after the landers earthquake there were three magnitude 3 4 events in western nevada and an unexpected widespread increase in the rate of small events based on combined catalogs for northern nevada southern nevada and southern california and a model that assumes statistical independence of events in these regions the probability of this happening in a 24 hr period by random chance is less than 10 12 per day therefore there is high statistical confidence that the increased seismicity was triggered by the landers event based on the statistical model we develop a list of 227 earthquakes in the first 83 days following the landers earthquake each of which has no more than 10 probability of occurring by random chance the suspect events are broadly distributed in regions that correlate with historical activity in the great basin the events are not uniquely associated with known volcanic activity or with zones that were previously active with microearthquakes or aftershock sequences the magnitudes of the largest triggered events appear to decrease with distance with time the number of suspect events decreases at a rate comparable to the rate of decrease of aftershocks of the landers and big bear earthquakes three of the most significant triggered events that that occurred were as follows mina 500 km from landers m 4 36 min after landers smith valley 590 km from landers m 3 4 56 min after landers and little skull mountain 280 km from landers m 5 6 22 3 hr after landers the evidence for triggering is particularly strong in the case of the little skull mountain event where an increased rate of microseismicity was evident as soon as small events could be identified in the coda of the landers earthquake we evaluate the seismic history for the past 3 yr to understand what was unique about the landers earthquake this includes identifying the previous earthquakes most likely to have caused the strongest shaking in various frequency bands based on a simple screening model the strains from the landers earthquake were uniquely large at low frequencies but at high frequencies they were exceeded frequently by small more local events thus we hypothesize that the cause of triggering is low frequency dynamic strains at periods of about 10 sec or greater and that there is a regional threshold that must be exceeded since previous events with calculated strains that were almost as strong were not causes of widespread triggering this mechanism for triggering satisfies the criterion of being a relatively rare phenomenon since it is likely to occur only when a large long period wave is radiated into an area where strain has been building slowly toward the point where faults are unstable

geology of precambrian paleosols at the base of the huronian supergroup elliot lake ontario canada abstract detailed examination of two new profiles through the denison series paleosol and one new profile through a pronto series paleosol in the elliot lake area lend fresh insight into atmospheric and hydrogeologic environmental conditions of precambrian earth these are reassessed with reference to the results of previous studies as true indigenous paleosols of polygenetic character virtually all of the criteria grandstaff et al 1986 for identification of paleosols are met the paleosols bear strong mineralogical and chemical similarities despite derivation from different parent materials and sampling at locations distant from each other there has evidently been a common reaction to weathering processes peculiar to the early proterozoic diagenetic and metamorphic events mask to a considerable extent the role played by environmental and hydrologic conditions in the development of the paleosols in the denison greenstone derived paleosol clay formed from amphibole feldspar and chlorite is altered to sericite increased quartz content is due to residual concentration and to secondary development in granodiorite derived paleosol quartz and sericite are generally more abundant quartz is relatively concentrated toward the top of the profile the paleosols are thus primarily sericite quartz and chlorite assemblages rutile and leucoxene are accessory minerals profiles of elemental chemistry show the most drastic changes in concentration at the base in transition to bedrock magnesia and lime are leached from all profiles as in modern soils although in common with most precambrian paleosols potash accumulated total fe is strongly depleted from the profiles except just above the bedrock contact with granodiorite a condition attributed to mobilization of fe from the paleosol to a position directly over relatively impermeable parent rock use of holland s method of establishing oxygenation from paleosols indicates that in terms of fe content parent material of granodiorite derived paleosol should produce a reduced fe paleosol the oxygen demand of this rock was greater than granite owing to an abundant ferromagnesian content two fossil eluvial horizons marked by high chlorite and a dramatic decrease in sericite content are recognized in the denison paleosol their existence shows that although initial stages of weathering may have occurred under water saturated conditions conditions were probably more arid than supposed by previous workers particularly during the later stages of development of the paleosol although fe enriched the eluvial horizons are drastically depleted in potash al and th removal of al 2 o 3 negates normalization of chemical analyses of paleosols to al 2 o 3 for purposes of constant volume calculations th associated with sericite in the profiles increases at the contact with the overlying matinenda formation in association with rutile and leucoxene owing to interaction with diagenetic u bearing fluids from overlying sediments rutile and leucoxene originate from parent rocks and are a late stage form of mineralization these titaniferous phases indirectly contributed to the local dominance of brannerite type orc through diagenetic processes of mineralization involving the pronto reaction paleotopographic greenstone highs are related to local anomalously high concentrations of heavy minerals in the brannerite rich orc this involves hydraulic deposition of heavy minerals in the lee of crescent shaped greenstone highs with subsequent diagenetic upgrading granodiorite derived paleosol contains 5 10 times more au than the denison paleosol and is modestly enriched above background a slight decrease in au content upward evident in all profiles is an artefact of erosion of the top of the paleosols

the 17 august 1999 izmit earthquake on 17 august 1999 an earthquake of magnitude 7 4 shook northwestern turkey details on the earthquake9s characteristics and effects across northwestern turkey are provided and are put in the historical context of previous earthquakes in the region the earthquake was the seventh in a series of earthquakes migrating westwards along the north anatolian fault since 1939 information on historical earthquakes modeling and estimates of the slip rate along the fault indicate that the location and severity of the earthquake should not have come as a surprise

the seismic activity of the marmara sea region over the last 2000 years we examined the seismicity of the region of the sea of marmara in northwest turkey over the last 2000 yr using the historical record of the region we found no evidence for truly large earthquakes of a size comparable to those in the north anatolian fault zone in the marmara basin events are smaller in keeping with the known fault segmentation of the basin over the last 2000 yr seismic mo ment release accounted for the known right lateral shear velocity across the marmara region observed by global positioning system measurements its average rate is relatively constant and varies between 1 6 and 2 4 cm yr the long term seismicity in the marmara sea region shows that large earthquakes are less frequent than pre dicted from the 100 yr long instrumental period

inference of multiple earthquake cycle relaxation timescales from irregular geodetic sampling of interseismic deformation abstract characterizing surface deformation throughout a full earthquake cycle is a challenge due to the lack of high resolution geodetic observations of duration comparable to that of characteristic earthquake recurrence intervals 250 10 000 years here we approach this problem by comparing long term geologic slip rates with geodetically derived fault slip rates by sampling only a short fraction 0 001 0 1 of a complete earthquake cycle along 15 continental strike slip faults geodetic observations provide snapshots of surface deformation from different times through the earthquake cycle the timing of the last earthquake on many of these faults is poorly known and may vary greatly from fault to fault assuming that the underlying mechanics of the seismic cycle are similar for all faults geodetic observations from different faults may be interpreted as samples over a significantly larger fraction of the earthquake cycle than could be obtained from the geodetic record along any one fault alone as an ensemble we find that geologically and geodetically inferred slip rates agree well with a linear relation of 0 94 0 09 to simultaneously explain both the ensemble agreement between geologic and geodetic slip rate estimates with observations of rapid postseismic deformation we consider the predictions from simple two layer earthquake cycle models with both maxwell and burgers viscoelastic rheologies we find that a two layer burgers model with two relaxation timescales is consistent with observations of deformation throughout the earthquake cycle whereas the widely used two layer maxwell model with a single relaxation timescale is not suggesting that the earthquake cycle is effectively characterized by a largely stress recoverable rapid postseismic stage and a much more slowly varying interseismic stage

a constitutive law for rate of earthquake production and its application to earthquake clustering seismicity is modeled as a sequence of earthquake nucleation events in which the distribution of initial conditions over the population of nucleation sources and stress ing history control the timing of earthquakes the model is implemented using solutions for nucleation of unstable fault slip on faults with experimentally derived rate and state dependent fault properties this yields a general state variable constitutive formulation for rate of earthquake production resulting from an applied stressing history to illustrate and test the model some characteristics of seismicity following a stress step have been explored it is proposed that various features of earthquake clustering arise from sensi tivity of nucleation times to the stress changes induced by prior earthquakes the model gives the characteristic omori aftershock decay law and interprets aftershock parameters in terms of stress change and stressing rate earthquake data appear to support a model prediction that aftershock duration defined as the time for rates to return to the back ground seismicity rate is proportional to mainshock recurrence time observed spatial and temporal clustering of earthquake pairs arises as a consequence of the spatial depen dence of stress changes of the first event of the pair and stress sensitive time dependent nucleation applications of the constitutive formulation are not restricted to the simple stress step models investigated here it may be applied to stressing histories of arbitrary complexity the apparent success at modeling clustering phenomena suggests the possibil ity of using the formulation to estimate short to intermediate term earthquake probabil ities following occurrence of other earthquakes and for inversion of temporal variations of earthquake rates for changes in driving stress

gps constraints on continental deformation in the africa arabia eurasia continental collision zone and implications for the dynamics of plate interactions 1 the gps derived velocity field 1988 2005 for the zone of interaction of the arabian african nubian somalian and eurasian plates indicates counterclockwise rotation of a broad area of the earth s surface including the arabian plate adjacent parts of the zagros and central iran turkey and the aegean peloponnesus relative to eurasia at rates in the range of 20 30 mm yr this relatively rapid motion occurs within the framework of the slow moving 5 mm yr relative motions eurasian nubian and somalian plates the circulatory pattern of motion increases in rate toward the hellenic trench system we develop an elastic block model to constrain present day plate motions relative euler vectors regional deformation within the interplate zone and slip rates for major faults substantial areas of continental lithosphere within the region of plate interaction show coherent motion with internal deformations below 1 2 mm yr including central and eastern anatolia turkey the southwestern aegean peloponnesus the lesser caucasus and central iran geodetic slip rates for major block bounding structures are mostly comparable to geologic rates estimated for the most recent geological period 3 5 myr we find that the convergence of arabia with eurasia is accommodated in large part by lateral transport within the interior part of the collision zone and lithospheric shortening along the caucasus and zagros mountain belts around the periphery of the collision zone in addition we find that the principal boundary between the westerly moving anatolian plate and arabia east anatolian fault is presently characterized by pure left lateral strike slip with no fault normal convergence this implies that extrusion is not presently inducing westward motion of anatolia on the basis of the observed kinematics we hypothesize that deformation in the africa arabia eurasia collision zone is driven in large part by rollback of the subducting african lithosphere beneath the hellenic and cyprus trenches aided by slab pull on the southeastern side of the subducting arabian plate along the makran subduction zone we further suggest that the separation of arabia from africa is a response to plate motions induced by active subduction

estimates of seismic potential in the marmara sea region from block models of secular deformation constrained by global positioning system measurements we model the geodetically observed secular velocity field in north western turkey with a block model that accounts for recoverable elastic strain ac cumulation the block model allows us to estimate internally consistent fault slip rates and locking depths the northern strand of the north anatolian fault zone nafz carries approximately four times as much right lateral motion 24 mm yr as does the southern strand in the marmara sea region the data show strain accu mulation to be highly localized we find that a straight fault geometry with a shallow locking depth of 6 7 km fits the observed global positioning system velocities better than does a stepped fault geometry that follows the northern and eastern edges of the sea this shallow locking depth suggests that the moment release associated with an earthquake on these faults should be smaller by a factor of 2 3 than previously inferred assuming a locking depth of 15 km online material an updated version of velocity field data

topographic control on precambrian weathering in the elliot lake uranium district canada the voluminous uraniferous conglomerate beds at elliot lake canada lie directly above or within several metres of a palaeosol that developed on archaean granite and greenstone metabasalt this lower proterozoic paleosol provides evidence for the environment in which the uraniferous conglomerate accumulated previous investigators have interpreted a few analyses of the palaeosol to indicate palaeoweathering under an atmosphere devoid of free oxygen however we have independently analysed in detail three oxidized palaeosols that formed contemporaneously with reduced palaeosols the degree of oxidation correlates well with palaeoelevation

heightened odds of large earthquakes near istanbul an interaction based probability calculation we calculate the probability of strong shaking in istanbul an urban center of 10 million people from the description of earthquakes on the north anatolian fault system in the marmara sea during the past 500 years and test the resulting catalog against the frequency of damage in istanbul during the preceding millennium departing from current practice we include the time dependent effect of stress transferred by the 1999 moment magnitude m 7 4 izmit earthquake to faults nearer to istanbul we find a 62 15 probability one standard deviation of strong shaking during the next 30 years and 32 12 during the next decade

aftershock triggering by complete coulomb stress changes 1 we examine the correlation between seismicity rate change following the 1992 m7 3 landers california earthquake and characteristics of the complete coulomb failure stress cfs changes cfs t that this earthquake generated at close distances the time varying dynamic portion of the stress change depends on how the rupture develops temporally and spatially and arises from radiated seismic waves and from permanent coseismic fault displacement the permanent static portion cfs depends only on the final coseismic displacement cfs diminishes much more rapidly with distance than the transient dynamic stress changes a common interpretation of the strong correlation between cfs and aftershocks is that load changes can advance or delay failure stress changes may also promote failure by physically altering properties of the fault or its environs because it is transient cfs t can alter the failure rate only by the latter means we calculate both cfs and the maximum positive value of cfs t peak cfs t using a reflectivity program input parameters are constrained by modeling landers displacement seismograms we quantify the correlation between maps of seismicity rate changes and maps of modeled cfs and peak cfs t and find agreement for both models however rupture directivity which does not affect cfs creates larger peak cfs t values northwest of the main shock this asymmetry is also observed in seismicity rate changes but not in cfs this result implies that dynamic stress changes are as effective as static stress changes in triggering aftershocks and may trigger earthquakes long after the waves have passed

izmit earthquake postseismic deformation and dynamics of the north anatolian fault zone 1 we have modeled postseismic deformation from 1999 to 2003 in the region surrounding the 1999 izmit and duzce earthquake ruptures using a three dimensional viscoelastic finite element method our models confirm earlier findings that surface deformation within the first few months of the izmit earthquake is principally due to stable frictional afterslip on and below the izmit earthquake rupture a second deformation process is required however to fit the surface deformation after several months viscoelastic relaxation of lower crust and or upper mantle with a viscosity of the order of 2 to 5 1019 pa s improves the models fit to later gps site velocities however for a linear viscous rheology this range of values is inconsistent with highly localized interseismic deformation around the north anatolian fault zone nafz that was well observed prior to the earthquake sequence the simplest solution to this problem is to assume that the effective viscosity of the relaxing material increases with time after large earthquakes that is that it has a power law or burger s body transient rheology a burger s body rheology with two characteristic viscosities 2 to 5 1019 pa s and at least 2 1020 pa s in the mantle is consistent with deformation around the nafz throughout the earthquake cycle