kinematics of the north american caribbean cocos plates in central america from new gps measurements across the polochic motagua fault system 1 the polochic motagua strike slip fault system in guatemala marks the on land plate boundary between the north american na and the caribbean ca plates gps observations in 1999 and 2003 show that the far field velocity across the system na ca relative velocity is 20 mm yr this is significantly higher than the nuvel 1a velocity but is consistent with the gps based ca na velocity proposed by demets et al 2000 the observations are modeled by a fault centered on the motagua fault locked at a depth of 20 km with a slip rate decreasing from eastern to central guatemala from 20 to 12 mm yr towards the na ca cocos triple junction this decrease is accommodated by 8 mm yr of e w extension in the westernmost part of ca south of the motagua fault about 10 mm yr of dextral slip is observed across the mid american volcanic arc the na ca cocos triple junction is thus a complex 400 km wide wedge shaped area

stress sensitivity of fault seismicity a comparison between limited offset oblique and major strike slip faults we present a new three dimensional inventory of the southern san francisco bay area faults and use it to calculate stress applied principally by the 1989 m 7 1 loma prieta earthquake and to compare fault seismicity rates before and after 1989 the major high angle right lateral faults exhibit a different response to the stress change than do minor oblique right lateral thrust faults seismicity on oblique slip faults in the southern santa clara valley thrust belt increased where the faults were unclamped the strong dependence of seismicity change on normal stress change implies a high coefficient of static friction in contrast we observe that faults with significant offset 50 100 km behave differently microseismicity on the hayward fault diminished where right lateral shear stress was reduced and where it was unclamped by the loma prieta earthquake we observe a similar response on the san andreas fault zone in southern california after the landers earthquake sequence additionally the offshore san gregorio fault shows a seismicity rate increase where right lateral oblique shear stress was increased by the loma prieta earthquake despite also being clamped by it these responses are consistent with either a low coefficient of static friction or high pore fluid pressures within the fault zones we can explain the different behavior of the two styles of faults if those with large cumulative offset become impermeable through gouge buildup coseismically pressurized pore fluids could be trapped and negate imposed normal stress changes whereas in more limited offset faults fluids could rapidly escape the difference in behavior between minor and major faults may explain why frictional failure criteria that apply intermediate coefficients of static friction can be effective in describing the broad distributions of aftershocks that follow large earthquakes since many of these events occur both inside and outside major fault zones

distribution of slip from 11 mw 6 earthquakes in the northern chile subduction zone we use interferometric synthetic aperture radar gps and teleseismic data to constrain the relative location of coseismic slip from 11 earthquakes on the subduction interface in northern chile 23 25 s between the years 1993 and 2000 we invert body wave waveforms and geodetic data both jointly and separately for the four largest earthquakes during this time period 1993 m w 6 8 1995 m w 8 1 1996 m w 6 7 1998 m w 7 1 while the location of slip in the teleseismic only geodetic only and joint slip inversions is similar for the small earthquakes there are differences for the 1995 m w 8 1 event probably related to nonuniqueness of models that fit the teleseismic data there is a consistent mislocation of the harvard centroid moment tensor locations of many of the 6 6 earthquakes as well as three m w 7 events from the 1980s all of these earthquakes appear to rupture different portions of the fault interface and do not rerupture a limited number of asperities

the oaxaca mexico earthquake of 1931 lithospheric normal faulting in the subducted cocos plate a study of the great earthquake in oaxaca mexico on 15 january 1931 shows that it was a normal fault earthquake striking east west the lack of evidence of surface faulting near the source region1 and the focal depth of 40 km inferred from body wave modelling suggest that the earthquake occurred within the subducted slab the large size of the earthquake ms 8 0 strongly suggests that the rupture broke through the entire lithosphere of the subducted cocos plate other large normal fault earthquakes in the japanese2 aleutian3 peruvian4 and sumba5 arcs show lithospheric faulting seawards of the trench or very close to it the 1931 event however occurred farther down dip in the slab 150 km landward of the trench below the bottom of what appears to be the seismogenic plate interface we speculate here that large although infrequent normal fault earthquakes such as the 1931 oaxaca earthquake may have a role in decoupling at depth the subducted slab from the upper part of the slab and perhaps from the overriding mexican continental plate the epicentral location of the 1858 michoacan earthquake6 ms 7 5 suggests that it may represent another example of lithospheric normal faulting in the middle american arc such earthquakes for which the periods of recurrence are unknown constitute an extremely high seismic risk to population centres of mexico

basin centered asperities in great subduction zone earthquakes a link between slip subsidence and subduction erosion 1 published areas of high coseismic slip or asperities for 29 of the largest circum pacific megathrust earthquakes are compared to forearc structure revealed by satellite free air gravity bathymetry and seismic profiling on average 71 of an earthquake s seismic moment and 79 of its asperity area occur beneath the prominent gravity low outlining the deep sea terrace 57 of an earthquake s asperity area on average occurs beneath the forearc basins that lie within the deep sea terrace in sw japan slip in the 1923 1944 1946 and 1968 earthquakes was largely centered beneath five forearc basins whose landward edge overlies the 350 c isotherm on the plate boundary the inferred downdip limit of the locked zone basin centered coseismic slip also occurred along the aleutian mexico peru and chile subduction zones but was ambiguous for the great 1964 alaska earthquake beneath intrabasin structural highs seismic slip tends to be lower possibly due to higher temperatures and fluid pressures kilometers of late cenozoic subsidence and crustal thinning above some of the source zones are indicated by seismic profiling and drilling and are thought to be caused by basal subduction erosion the deep sea terraces and basins may evolve not just by growth of the outer arc high but also by interseismic subsidence not recovered during earthquakes basin centered asperities could indicate a link between subsidence subduction erosion and seismogenesis whatever the cause forearc basins may be useful indicators of long term seismic moment release the source zone for cascadia s 1700 a d earthquake contains five large basin centered gravity lows that may indicate potential asperities at depth the gravity gradient marking the inferred downdip limit to large coseismic slip lies offshore except in northwestern washington where the low extends landward beneath the coast transverse gravity highs between the basins suggest that the margin is seismically segmented and could produce a variety of large earthquakes

vertical resolution gravity versus vertical gravity gradient can gravity really detect a 200 m throw fault at a depth of 3000 m such a question may be frequently asked when we interpret gravity data at present with gravity gradiometry available and the exploration activity in areas such as the gulf of mexico another parallel question is raised

horizontal subduction and truncation of the cocos plate beneath central mexico 1 based on analysis of data from a trans mexico temporary broadband seismic network centered on mexico city we report that the subducting cocos plate beneath central mexico is horizontal and tectonically underplates the base of the crust for a distance of 250 km from the trench it is decoupled from the crust by a very thin low viscosity zone the plate plunges into the mantle near mexico city but is truncated at a depth of 500 km probably due to an e w propagating tear in the cocos slab unlike the shallow slab subduction in peru and chile there is active volcanism along the trans mexican volcanic belt tmvb that lies much further inland than regions to either side where subduction dip is not horizontal geodynamical modeling indicates that a thin weak layer such as imaged by the seismic experiment can explain the flat subduction

aftershock seismicity of the 2010 maule mw 8 8 chile earthquake correlation between co seismic slip models and aftershock distribution 1 the 27 february 2010 maule chile mw 8 8 earthquake is one of the best instrumentally observed subduction zone megathrust events here we present locations magnitudes and cumulative equivalent moment of the first 2 months of aftershocks recorded on a temporary network deployed within 2 weeks of the occurrence of the mainshock using automatically determined onset times and a back projection approach for event association we are able to detect over 30 000 events in the time period analyzed to further increase the location accuracy we systematically searched for potential s wave arrivals and events were located in a regional 2d velocity model additionally we calculated regional moment tensors to gain insight into the deformation history of the aftershock sequence we find that the aftershock seismicity is concentrated between 40 and 140 km distance from the trench over a depth range of 10 to 35 km focal mechanisms indicate a predominance of thrust faulting with occasional normal faulting events increased activity is seen in the outer rise region of the nazca plate predominantly in the northern part of the rupture area further down dip a second band of clustered seismicity showing mainly thrust motion is located at depths of 40 45 km by comparing recent published mainshock source inversions with our aftershock distribution we discriminate slip models based on the assumption that aftershocks occur in areas of rapid transition between high and low slip surrounding high slip regions of the mainshock

seismic potential of acapulco san marcos region along the mexican subduction zone recently seismic quiescence based on p d e and i s c data has been reported in the acapulco san marcos region 16 17 2 n 98 5 99 7 w mcnally 1981 in order to assess the seismic potential of this region we have estimated seismic moments and slips associated with 1957 ms 7 5 and 1907 ms 8 0 events which occurred in this area historical data suggest that earthquakes occurred in this region in 1845 ms 7 9 and probably also in 1820 ms 7 6 we find preference for the time predictable model in the data set which if valid forecasts the next large earthquake between now and 1993 with 1985 as the most likely year although this forecast can not be taken as definitive since it is based on several assumptions each of which are reasonable but uncertain the implications of reported quiescence and the results of this paper suggest a careful monitoring of the area

stress triggering in thrust and subduction earthquakes and stress interaction between the southern san andreas and nearby thrust and strike slip faults 1 we argue that key features of thrust earthquake triggering inhibition and clustering can be explained by coulomb stress changes which we illustrate by a suite of representative models and by detailed examples whereas slip on surface cutting thrust faults drops the stress in most of the adjacent crust slip on blind thrust faults increases the stress on some nearby zones particularly above the source fault blind thrusts can thus trigger slip on secondary faults at shallow depth and typically produce broadly distributed aftershocks short thrust ruptures are particularly efficient at triggering earthquakes of similar size on adjacent thrust faults we calculate that during a progressive thrust sequence in central california the 1983 mw 6 7 coalinga earthquake brought the subsequent 1983 mw 6 0 nunez and 1985 mw 6 0 kettleman hills ruptures 10 bars and 1 bar closer to coulomb failure the idealized stress change calculations also reconcile the distribution of seismicity accompanying large subduction events in agreement with findings of prior investigations subduction zone ruptures are calculated to promote normal faulting events in the outer rise and to promote thrust faulting events on the periphery of the seismic rupture and its downdip extension these features are evident in aftershocks of the 1957 mw 9 1 aleutian and other large subduction earthquakes we further examine stress changes on the rupture surface imparted by the 1960 mw 9 5 and 1995 mw 8 1 chile earthquakes for which detailed slip models are available calculated coulomb stress increases of 2 20 bars correspond closely to sites of aftershocks and postseismic slip whereas aftershocks are absent where the stress drops by more than 10 bars we also argue that slip on major strike slip systems modulates the stress acting on nearby thrust and strike slip faults we calculate that the 1857 mw 7 9 fort tejon earthquake on the san andreas fault and subsequent interseismic slip brought the coalinga fault 1 bar closer to failure but inhibited failure elsewhere on the coast ranges thrust faults the 1857 earthquake also promoted failure on the white wolf reverse fault by 8 bars which ruptured in the 1952 mw 7 3 kern county shock but inhibited slip on the left lateral garlock fault which has not ruptured since 1857 we thus contend that stress transfer exerts a control on the seismicity of thrust faults across a broad spectrum of spatial and temporal scales

the 2011 m 9 0 tohoku oki earthquake more than doubled the probability of large shocks beneath tokyo 1 the kanto seismic corridor surrounding tokyo has hosted four to five m 7 earthquakes in the past 400 years immediately after the tohoku earthquake the seismicity rate in the corridor jumped 10 fold while the rate of normal focal mechanisms dropped in half the seismicity rate decayed for 6 12 months after which it steadied at three times the pre tohoku rate the seismicity rate jump and decay to a new rate as well as the focal mechanism change can be explained by the static stress imparted by the tohoku rupture and postseismic creep to kanto faults we therefore fit the seismicity observations to a rate state coulomb model which we use to forecast the time dependent probability of large earthquakes in the kanto seismic corridor we estimate a 17 probability of a m 7 0 shock over the 5 year prospective period 11 march 2013 to 10 march 2018 two and a half times the probability had the tohoku earthquake not struck

constraints in 3d gravity inversion a three dimensional 3d inversion program is developed to interpret gravity data using a selection of constraints this selection includes minimum distance flatness smoothness and compactness constraints which can be combined using a lagrangian formulation a multigrid technique is also implemented to resolve separately large and short gravity wavelengths the subsurface in the survey area is divided into rectangular prismatic blocks and the problem is solved by calculating the model parameters i e the densities of each block weights are given to each block depending on depth a priori information on density and the density range allowed for the region under investigation the present computer code is tested on modelled data for a dipping dike and multiple bodies results combining different constraints and a weight depending on depth are shown for the dipping dike the advantages and behaviour of each method are compared in the 3d reconstruction recovery of geometry depth size and density distribution of the original model is dependent on the set of constraints used from experimentation the best combination of constraints for multiple bodies seems to be flatness and a minimum volume for the multiple bodies the inversion method is tested on real gravity data from the rouyn noranda quebec mining camp the 3d inversion model for the first 10 km is in agreement with the known major lithological contacts at the surface it enables the determination of the geometry of plutons and intrusive rocks at depth

frictional sliding in serpentine at very high pressure abstract using a new four channel system for detecting acoustic emissions in a multianvil apparatus we have assessed the pressure temperature range for such emissions as well as the role of dehydration by deforming samples of extensively serpentinized peridotite we show that in the absence of dehydration and for samples initially faulted at low pressure acoustic emissions occurred well outside the expected pressure temperature field of unassisted brittle failure emissions were also detected during and after dehydration of serpentine microstructures of post run specimens revealed fault slip with offsets up to 500 m regardless of whether or not dehydration took place dehydration appears to effectively stop slip on pre existing faults and create new ones analysis of p wave travel times from the four sensors confirmed that the acoustic emissions originated within the specimen during fault slip these observations suggest that earthquakes can be triggered by slip along an existing fault containing serpentine under significantly higher pressure and temperature conditions than previously thought possible without dehydration

anatomy of a megathrust the 2010 m8 8 maule chile earthquake rupture zone imaged using seismic tomography abstract knowledge of seismic velocities in the seismogenic part of subduction zones can reveal how material properties may influence large ruptures observations of aftershocks that followed the 2010 m w 8 8 maule chile earthquake provide an exceptional dataset to examine the physical properties of a megathrust rupture zone we manually analysed aftershocks from onshore seismic stations and ocean bottom seismometers to derive a 3 d velocity model of the rupture zone using local earthquake tomography from the trench to the magmatic arc our velocity model illuminates the main features within the subduction zone we interpret an east dipping high p wave velocity anomaly 6 9 km s as the subducting oceanic crust and a low p wave velocity we assess the role played by physical heterogeneity in governing megathrust behaviour greatest slip during the maule earthquake occurred in areas of moderate p wave velocity 6 5 7 5 km s where the interface is structurally more uniform at shallow depths high fluid pressure likely influenced the up dip limit of seismic activity the high velocity bodies lie above portions of the plate interface where there was reduced coseismic slip and minimal postseismic activity the northern velocity anomaly may have acted as a structural discontinuity within the forearc influencing the pronounced crustal seismicity in the pichilemu region our work provides evidence for how the ancient geological structure of the forearc may influence the seismic behaviour of subduction megathrusts

permanent fore arc extension and seismic segmentation insights from the 2010 maule earthquake chile 1 geologists have long known that young normal faults are an important structural element of the andean coastal cordillera but their relationship to the subduction seismic cycle is still unclear some of the largest aftershocks of the 2010 mw 8 8 maule earthquake in central chile were nucleated on upper plate normal faults including the mw 6 9 and 7 0 events of the pichilemu earthquake sequence we use the available coseismic gps displacements moment tensor sums and slip distribution models for the maule earthquake to compute the static strain and stress fields imposed on the upper plate by slip on the subduction interface the extensional strains calculated from coseismic gps and from a moment tensor sum of the pichilemu events have similar orientations and orders of magnitude the normal coulomb stress increment csi on the pichilemu fault has maximum positive stresses as high as 4 9 mpa regionally the maule event produced a semi elliptical radial pattern of static extension and deviatoric tension csi 1 5 mpa along the coastal cordillera enclosing the rupture area this elliptical pattern mimics the trends of the major upper crustal structures the static deformation field produced by a great subduction earthquake is an effective mechanism for generating permanent extension above the seismogenic zone reactivating suitably oriented long lived normal faults we suggest that the semi elliptical outline of the first order structures along the coastal cordillera may define the location of a characteristic long lived megathrust segment this observation implies a persistence at least over the quaternary of great subduction ruptures along the maule segment

fossil travertine system and its palaeofluid provenance migration and evolution through time example from the geothermal area of acquasanta terme central italy abstract the geothermal area of acquasanta terme has often been studied for its active and fossil travertine deposits to elucidate fluid origin geodynamic and hydrological setting even though present day thermal springs are usually used to obtain most information the three travertine terraces bordering the tronto river contain a plethora of information a combination of elemental and isotope analyses 18o 13c and 87sr 86sr ratio fluid inclusion microthermometry and u th dating is used to verify the hydrogeology and its timing these analyses point out two fluid reservoirs with distinctly different fluids one with low salinity of 0 7 wt nacl eq and another with 28 5 wt nacl eq which corresponds to the fluid composition of present day spring fluids furthermore it is demonstrated that geothermal sources were intermittently active in the past 221 ka mainly during uneven numbered marine isotope stages which are related to humid interglacial periods and resulted in three different travertine terraces around 210 5 126 5 and 36 5 ka accordingly an uplift rate for this area could be estimated at around 1 mm ka the fluids were tapped at a depth of approximately 3 km in the tectonized cataclastic fraction of the triassic anidriti di burano formation the calcare cavernoso formation and are originally meteoric based on geochemical evidence of a uniform 87sr 86sr ratio of 0 707914 0 00019 and a 18oaragonite value of 11 90 0 34 which has been depressed by elevated precipitation temperatures between 22 2 and 50 c the characterization and dating of fossil travertine deposits gives valuable data providing insights in long term fluid flow and orogenic uplift rates adding valuable information to present day spring fluid characterization

the 11 april 2012 east indian ocean earthquake triggered large aftershocks worldwide although strong remote aftershocks are exceedingly rare their rate increased fivefold during the six days following the 2012 east indian ocean earthquake perhaps as a result of the strike slip nature of the 2012 event or a build up of close to failure nucleation sites

static stress increase in the outer forearc produced by m w 8 2 september 8 2017 mexico earthquake and its relation to the gravity signal an mw 8 2 earthquake affected on september 8 2017 the cocos plate beneath the caribbean plate next to the transform contact with the north american plate across the tehuantepec gap one of the two gaps that exist along the mexican subduction zone offshore chiapas the epicenter occurred at a depth of 47 km and was associated with a highly steep normal fault parallel to the trench the origin can be related to slab pull forces dehydration processes and reactivation of outer rise faults this earthquake produced positive changes in the coulomb static stress which would favor the development of thrust displacements along the interplate contact across the tehuantepec gap instead of liberating tensions accumulated on it for decades in the case that stresses were not released steadily in the future a thrusting related event with a magnitude of mw 7 9 or higher could be expected after the september 8 2017 chiapas earthquake however the differential weight of the forearc offshore that contains a region with a high positive gravity gradient could inhibit rupture propagation to the coast precluding higher magnitudes combined and satellite only earth gravity field models show a highly heterogeneous density structure along the forearc of the north america caribbean plates and in particular at the studied zone maximum displacements in the rupture zone correlate to minimum gravity derived anomalies showing a probable relationship between the differential weight of the forearc structure and the extensional faulting affecting the bending of the cocos plate at depth in this sense variable sediment thicknesses over the forearc and a high gravity gradient zone parallel to the trench in the outer forearc could be reflecting physical heterogeneities that influence the propagation of the rupture zone additionally to the north a highly positive gradient signal related to the subducted tehuantepec fz projection beneath the north american plate marks the ending of the main slip patch acting as a barrier to the seismic rupture propagation this event exemplifies 1 how extensional ruptures in the downgoing slab of a subduction zone can increment accumulated elastic strain across a seismic gap instead of liberating tensions 2 that rupture propagation for this intraplate event was probably controlled at shallow depths by the density structure of the forearc similarly to recent interplate earthquakes along the chilean margin 3 how a low gravity gradient signal and low density structures identified from the inversion model in the region of the outer forearc where the normal stress increased after the main seismic event suggest a higher risk of occurrence of a great megathrust earthquake

gravity anomalies crustal structure and seismicity at subduction zones 2 interrelationships between fore arc structure and seismogenic behavior an ensemble averaging technique is used to remove the long wavelength topography and gravity field associated with subduction zones short wavelength residual anomalies are attributed to the tectonic structure of subducting and overthrusting plates a paired positive negative fore arc anomaly is observed consisting of a long 1000 km linear trench parallel ridge landward of the deep sea terrace basin ridges have amplitudes of 1500 3000 m and 160 240 mgal wavelengths of 150 200 km and high gravity anomaly to topography ratios 50 75 mgal km 1 the ridge crests correlate with the downdip limit of coseismic slip and strong interplate coupling and in cascadia the updip limit of tremor epicenters the ridge crest may be interpreted as defining the boundary between the velocity weakening and seismogenic region of the subduction interface and the downdip frictional transition zone in tonga kermadec the kuril islands and chile landward ridges are associated with extinct volcanic arcs paired anomalies are attributed to the preferential subduction erosion of the outer fore arc and a spatially varying combination of a lower crustal underplating beneath the inner fore arc b the transformation of interseismic strain into permanent geologic strain via faulting folding or buckling of the inner fore arc and c the relative trenchward migration of extinct volcanic arcs in regions operating with a net crustal deficit along strike transitions in fore arc morphology and seismogenic behavior are related to preexisting crustal structure of subducting and overthrusting plates fore arcs have the added potential of recording the time integrated response of the upper plate to subduction processes and fore arc structure should be considered in tandem with seismological observations

goce derived vertical gravity gradient delineates great earthquake rupture zones along the chilean margin abstract in the south central andes region the nazca oceanic plate that subducts beneath the south american plate is characterized by a rough topography derived from different oceanic features that collide against the continental margin these features determine an important segmentation of both the margin and of the interplate zone the chilean subduction margin has been characterized by megathrust earthquakes affecting the plate interface with large rupture areas reaching hundreds of kilometers parallel to the trench the occurrence of these phenomena has been linked among other causes to the subduction of sediments that fill the trench and their spatial relation to the relatively prominent oceanic features we calculated the topography corrected vertical gravity gradient from goce satellite data and from egm2008 model in order to delineate mass heterogeneities related to density variations along the south central chile subduction zone obtained results show a spatial relation between the subduction of the nazca oceanic highs and associated along strike segmentation of the vertical gravity gradients over the interplate zone we compared our results with the different rupture areas and found a good correspondence with the ellipses for the main earthquakes such as the valdivia 1960 and maule 2010 ones then we compared vertical gravity gradients with slip distribution obtained from different models finding that they are actually correlated with high slip over negative vertical gradient the goce derived gradient adjusts better with the main slip distribution contour since its signal has a characteristic high wavelength instead the egm2008 model presents a better performance in defining the high frequency anomalies however the last results need to be considered only in those regions where the statistical comparison with goce data shows a good performance this is because egm2008 model data present varying quality of the original terrestrial data while the quality of the goce data is locally homogeneous

intermediate depth earthquake faulting by dehydration embrittlement with negative volume change earthquakes are observed to occur in subduction zones to depths of approximately 680 km even though unassisted brittle failure is inhibited at depths greater than about 50 km owing to the high pressures and temperatures it is thought that such earthquakes particularly those at intermediate depths of 50 300 km may instead be triggered by embrittlement accompanying dehydration of hydrous minerals principally serpentine a problem with failure by serpentine dehydration is that the volume change accompanying dehydration becomes negative at pressures of 2 4 gpa 60 120 km depth above which brittle fracture mechanics predicts that the instability should be quenched here we show that dehydration of antigorite serpentinite under stress results in faults delineated by ultrafine grained solid reaction products formed during dehydration this phenomenon was observed under all conditions tested pressures of 1 6 gpa temperatures of 650 820 degrees c independent of the sign of the volume change of reaction although this result contradicts expectations from fracture mechanics it can be explained by separation of fluid from solid residue before and during faulting a hypothesis supported by our observations these observations confirm that dehydration embrittlement is a viable mechanism for nucleating earthquakes independent of depth as long as there are hydrous minerals breaking down under a differential stress

deep focus earthquakes and recycling of water into the earth s mantle for more than 50 years observations of earthquakes to depths of 100 to 650 kilometers inside earth have been enigmatic at these depths rocks are expected to deform by ductile flow rather than brittle fracturing or frictional sliding on fault surfaces laboratory experiments and detailed calculations of the pressures and temperatures in seismically active subduction zones indicate that this deep focus seismicity could originate from dehydration and high pressure structural instabilities occurring in the hydrated part of the lithosphere that sinks into the upper mantle thus seismologists may be mapping the recirculation of water from the oceans back into the deep interior of our planet

circum pacific seismic potential 1989 1999 the seismic potential for 96 segments of simple plate boundaries around the circum pacific region is presented in terms of the conditional probability for the occurrence of either large or great interplate earthquakes during the next 5 10 and 20 years i e 1989 1994 1989 1999 and 1989 2009 this study represents the first probabilistic summary of seismic potential on this scale and involves the comparison of plate boundary segments that exhibit varying recurrence times magnitudes and tectonic regimes presenting these data in a probabilistic framework provides a basis for the uniform comparison of seismic hazard between these differing fault segments as well as accounting for individual variations in recurrence time along a specific fault segment and uncertainties in the determination of the average recurrence time

the partitioning behaviour of boron from tourmaline during ashing of coal abstract boron is an environmentally sensitive element that may be present in high concentrations in some coals three modes of occurrence for boron in coal are commonly recognised namely bound to the organic fraction locked into clay minerals mainly illite and bound within the crystal lattice of tourmaline the organically bound mode is generally considered to be the most likely following combustion in a pulverised fuel utility boron is generally enriched in the fine fly ash waste but in some cases it may also escape with the flue gas suggesting variable partitioning behaviour there is concern that boron may be leached from fly ash disposal impounds at concentrations toxic to higher land plants a coal sample from the d seam of the strongman no 2 mine west coast south island new zealand has been used to test the hypothesis that boron present in tourmaline is less volatile in coal combustion implying that mode of occurrence is a key control on the partitioning behaviour of this element six sample subsets were doped with increasing amounts of ground tourmaline one subsample from each set was analysed by prompt gamma inaa to determine the concentration of boron in the coal two subsamples were ashed at 1000 c one ash sample from each set was analysed for boron while the other ash sample was leached according to australian standards it was found that the relationship between boron in the doped coal and boron in the ash is approximately linear with some losses noted during ashing indicating boron present in tourmaline was substantially retained in the ash furthermore no relationship was found between the boron content of the ash and boron leached from the ash samples by reagent water the results suggest boron present in coal as tourmaline is retained in the ash and is unavailable to the environment following fly ash disposal

forecasting the evolution of seismicity in southern california animations built on earthquake stress transfer 1 we develop a forecast model to reproduce the distribution of main shocks aftershocks and surrounding seismicity observed during 1986 2003 in a 300 310 km area centered on the 1992 m 7 3 landers earthquake to parse the catalog into frames with equal numbers of aftershocks we animate seismicity in log time increments that lengthen after each main shock this reveals aftershock zone migration expansion and densification we implement a rate state algorithm that incorporates the static stress transferred by each m 6 shock and then evolves coulomb stress changes amplify the background seismicity so small stress changes produce large changes in seismicity rate in areas of high background seismicity similarly seismicity rate declines in the stress shadows are evident only in areas with previously high seismicity rates thus a key constituent of the model is the background seismicity rate which we smooth from 1981 to 1986 seismicity the mean correlation coefficient between observed and predicted m 1 4 shocks the minimum magnitude of completeness is 0 52 for 1986 2003 and 0 63 for 1992 2003 a control standard aftershock model yields 0 54 and 0 52 for the same periods four m 6 0 shocks struck during the test period three are located at sites where the expected seismicity rate falls above the 92 percentile and one is located above the 75 percentile the model thus reproduces much but certainly not all of the observed spatial and temporal seismicity from which we infer that the decaying effect of stress transferred by successive main shocks influences seismicity for decades finally we offer a m 5 earthquake forecast for 2005 2015 assigning probabilities to 324 10 10 km cells

slip distribution of the february 27 2010 mw 8 8 maule earthquake central chile from static and high rate gps insar and broadband teleseismic data 1 the shallow depth underthrust earthquake of february 27 2010 mw 8 8 ruptured the subduction plate interface in central chile between 34 s and 38 s we retrieve the spatial and temporal distribution of slip during this mega earthquake through a joint inversion of teleseismic records insar and high rate gps hrgps data additionally our model is shown to agree with broadband surface waves rupture initiated at about 32 km depth and propagated bilaterally resulting in two main slip zones located ssw and nne of the hypocenter nucleation did not take place within or at the edge of one of these main asperities but in between during the first 30s slip propagated predominantly southwards later on the rupture evolved more slowly and more symmetrically eventually the northern asperity became predominant with maximum slip reaching about 20 m most of the seismic moment was released within 110s a relatively short time explained by the bilateral propagation the overall average rupture velocity is 2 6 km s but propagation occurred initially faster towards the south 3 2 km s large slip did not reach the trench a result consistent with the moderate size of the tsunami down dip rupture stopped at about 50 km depth in agreement with the lower limit of the locked zone inferred by ruegg et al 2009 from pre seismic gps data

normal and reverse faulting driven by the subduction zone earthquake cycle in the northern chilean fore arc 1 despite its location in a convergent tectonic setting the coastal cordillera of northern chile between 21 s and 25 s is dominated by structures demonstrating extension in the direction of plate convergence in some locations however normal faults have been reactivated as reverse faults complicating the interpretation of long term strain in order to place these new observations in a tectonic context we model stress changes induced on these faults by the subduction earthquake cycle our simulations predict that interseismic locking on the plate boundary encourages normal slip on fore arc faults which may result from elastic rebound due to interplate earthquakes or from seismic or aseismic motion that takes place within the interseismic period conversely stress generated by strong subduction zone earthquakes such as the 1995 mw 8 1 antofagasta event provides a mechanism for the reverse reactivation we document here upper plate fault slip in response to the low magnitude stress changes induced by the subduction earthquake cycle suggests that the absolute level of stress on these faults is very low furthermore seismic hazard analysis for northern chile requires consideration of not only the plate boundary earthquake cycle but also the cycle on fore arc faults that may or may not coincide with the interplate pattern though the relationships between permanent strain and deformation calculated using elastic models remain unclear the compatibility of modeled stress fields with the distribution of fore arc faulting suggests that interseismic strain accumulation and coseismic deformation on the subduction megathrust both play significant roles in shaping structural behavior in the upper plate

large extensional aftershocks in the continental forearc triggered by the 2010 maule earthquake chile summary the mw 8 8 maule earthquake occurred off the coast of central chile on 2010 february 27 and was the sixth largest earthquake to be recorded instrumentally this subduction zone event was followed by thousands of aftershocks both near the plate interface and in the overriding continental crust here we report on a pair of large shallow crustal earthquakes that occurred on 2010 march 11 within 15 min of each other near the town of pichilemu on the coast of the o higgins region of chile field and aerial reconnaissance following the events revealed no distinct surface rupture we infer from geodetic data spanning both events that the ruptures occurred on synthetic sw dipping normal faults the first larger rupture was followed by buried slip on a steeper fault in the hangingwall the fault locations and geometry of the two events are additionally constrained by locations of aftershock seismicity based on the international maule aftershock data set the maximum slip on the main fault is about 3 m and consistent with field results the onshore slip is close to zero near the surface satellite radar data also reveal that significant aseismic afterslip occurred following the two earthquakes coulomb stress modelling indicates that the faults were positively stressed by up to 40 bars as a result of slip on the subduction interface in the preceding megathrust event in other words the pichilemu earthquakes should be considered aftershocks of the maule earthquake the occurrence of these extensional events suggests that regional interseismic compressive stresses are small several recent large shallow crustal earthquakes in the overriding plate following the 2011 mw 9 0 tohoku oki earthquake in japan may be an analogue for the triggering process at pichilemu

do intermediate and deep focus earthquakes occur on preexisting weak zones an examination of the tonga subduction zone it has been proposed that intermediate and deep focus earthquakes occur on preexisting planes of weakness that were created at shallow depth the purpose of this study is to test this hypothesis we examined fault plane solutions for 360 events that occurred in the tonga subduction zone from january 1976 to february 1999 for events in the slab each fault plane solution is rotated by the slab dip angle so that the slab is in its original horizontal position we then compare fault plane solutions for events in the slab with those for events at the outer rise we find that an asymmetric fault system corresponding to that found for outer rise events persists down to about 450 km depth this suggests that earthquakes down to this depth are caused by the reactivation of preexisting faults created in the oceanic plate before subduction a similar pattern though less well constrained is found in the kurile subduction zone down to 200 km depth for earthquakes deeper than 450 km the fault plane solutions are much more scattered in some places the fault plane pattern suggests the creation of new fault planes along orientations of maximum shear with zero internal friction the pattern of fault plane solutions in particular localized volumes cannot be easily explained by the creation of new faults in the direction of maximum shear under a coherent regional tectonic stress field thus either a highly heterogeneous stress field exists or preexisting planes of weakness also account for some deep earthquakes

reference frame transformation of satellite gravity gradients and topographic mass reduction 1 the gravity field and steady state ocean circulation explorer goce is the european space agency s mission that combines gps tracking and gravity gradiometry to determine the earth s mean gravity field with unprecedented global accuracy with a spatial resolution down to 80 km this resolution makes goce gravity gradient data in particular useful for lithospheric scale modeling however the relation between coordinates in a model frame and at satellite altitude is not straightforward and most geophysical modeling programs require a planar approximation which may not be appropriate for satellite data we derive the exact relation between the model reference frame in which gradients from lithospheric modeling are given and the local north oriented frame in which goce gradients at 255 km altitude are given we generated gradients from a goce gravity field model and assessed whether the orientation differences between local north oriented frame and model reference frame are relevant in addition we assessed the same for airborne gradiometry at an altitude of 5 km because these data are complementary to goce we find that if the regional area has a longitude extension of 5 the errors stay below 10 for larger areas the standard deviation of the systematic errors may be 40 of the signal standard deviation comparing topographic mass reduction in planar and spherical approximation one sees significant long wavelength differences in terms of gravity gradients or gradient tensor invariants the maximum error is up to 1 e at satellite altitude compared with maximum signal amplitude of 3 e planar approximation is therefore not accurate enough for topographic mass reduction of goce gravity gradients

aftershock triggering by complete coulomb stress changes 1 we examine the correlation between seismicity rate change following the 1992 m7 3 landers california earthquake and characteristics of the complete coulomb failure stress cfs changes cfs t that this earthquake generated at close distances the time varying dynamic portion of the stress change depends on how the rupture develops temporally and spatially and arises from radiated seismic waves and from permanent coseismic fault displacement the permanent static portion cfs depends only on the final coseismic displacement cfs diminishes much more rapidly with distance than the transient dynamic stress changes a common interpretation of the strong correlation between cfs and aftershocks is that load changes can advance or delay failure stress changes may also promote failure by physically altering properties of the fault or its environs because it is transient cfs t can alter the failure rate only by the latter means we calculate both cfs and the maximum positive value of cfs t peak cfs t using a reflectivity program input parameters are constrained by modeling landers displacement seismograms we quantify the correlation between maps of seismicity rate changes and maps of modeled cfs and peak cfs t and find agreement for both models however rupture directivity which does not affect cfs creates larger peak cfs t values northwest of the main shock this asymmetry is also observed in seismicity rate changes but not in cfs this result implies that dynamic stress changes are as effective as static stress changes in triggering aftershocks and may trigger earthquakes long after the waves have passed

a new analytical solution estimating the flexural rigidity in the central andes summary we present a new 2 d analytical solution of the fourth order differential equation which describes the flexure of a thin elastic plate the new analytical solution allows the differential equation for an elastic plate to be solved for any irregular shaped topography with a high spatial resolution we apply the new method to the central andes the flexural rigidity distribution calculated by this technique correlates well with tectonic units and the location of fault zones for example the central andean gravity high correlates with the presence of a rigid high density body