southern san andreas fault seismicity is consistent with the gutenberg richter magnitude frequency distribution the magnitudes of any collection of earthquakes nucleating in a region are generally observed to follow the gutenberg richter gr distribution on some major faults however paleoseismic rates are higher than a gr extrapolation from the modern rate of small earthquakes would predict this along with other observations led to the formulation of the characteristic earthquake hypothesis which holds that the rate of small to moderate earthquakes is permanently low on large faults relative to the large earthquake rate wesnousky et al 1983 schwartz and coppersmith 1984 we examine the rate difference between recent small to moderate earthquakes on the southern san andreas fault ssaf and the paleoseismic record hypothesizing that the discrepancy can be explained as a rate change in time rather than a deviation from gr statistics we find that with reasonable assumptions the rate changes necessary to bring the small and large earthquake rates into alignment agree with the size of rate changes seen in epidemic type aftershock sequence modeling where aftershock triggering of large earthquakes drives strong fluctuations in the seismicity rates for earthquakes of all magnitudes the necessary rate changes are also comparable to rate changes observed for other faults worldwide these results are consistent with paleoseismic observations of temporally clustered bursts of large earthquakes on the ssaf and the absence of m 7 earthquakes on the ssaf since 1857

judging by color in the early history of geology and paleontology abstract this paper presents an overview on some significant historical sources particularly from 17th to 18th century italian scientific literature in order to understand how color was used as one of the external features for identifying rock formations also including fossils regarded as having formed in different times by different causes or events the reference to color was also considered the main feature used for lithostratigraphical purposes within the so called classifications of mountains in the second half of the 18th century later geologists and mineralogists involved in the early development of stratigraphy referred to color when a rock formation or specimen appeared to be less distinguishable by other main characters for example chemical and morphological features

changes of reporting rates in the southern california earthquake catalog introduced by a new definition of ml starting january 2008 local magnitudes m l for southern california are determined by a new calibration that provides various improvements for determining m l for small earthquakes magnitudes for the previous years are being recalculated and the catalog continuously updated with the first year of overlapping data now being available recalibrating a magnitude scale can cause a break in homogeneity of reporting and often produces artifacts in the catalog statistics that can influence a wide range of seismicity studies to search for such a break we compare the old m l and the new m l catalogs for 2007 we find 1 the two magnitude values differ for 96 of the m l events and hand determined magnitudes are also revised 2 the magnitude differences are irregular from magnitude increases of up to 1 5 units to reductions by as much as 2 3 units with an average change of 0 13 units 3 the number of events above m 1 8 decreases by 32 for the new magnitude scale 4 the completeness magnitude apparently drops by 0 3 units from 1 6 to 1 3 5 the b value reduces by approximately 0 2 units dropping from 1 16 to 0 95 6 the new magnitude calibration produces a more stable b value estimate and can therefore be regarded as the better scaling we document selected examples of how the change in magnitude calibration may affect seismicity and hazard related analyses that are based on the southern california seismic network scsn catalog especially the change of the b value from 1 1 to 0 9 has potentially major implications for hazard related applications

the 2002 denali fault and 2001 kunlun fault earthquakes complex rupture processes of two large strike slip events we studied the source processes of two large continental earthquakes the 3 november 2002 denali fault earthquake and the 14 november 2001 kunlun fault earthquake associated with strike slip faulting along ancient sutures we inverted teleseismic p waveforms using a pulse stripping method for multiple time windows with different focal mechanisms and derived composite source models according to our results the 2002 denali fault earthquake began with initial thrusting m w 7 3 along a 40 km long segment of the north northwest dipping susitna glacier fault and later ruptured a 300 km long segment along the denali and totschunda faults with a right lateral strike slip mechanism m w 7 7 in contrast the 2001 kunlun fault earthquake nucleated near an extensional step over with a subevent pair consisting of 30 km long strike slip m w 6 9 event and 40 km long normal m w 6 8 faulting event and later ruptured a 350 km long segment along the kunlun fault with a left lateral strike slip mechanism m w 7 7 both earthquakes propagated primarily unilaterally to the east and released most of their energy along slip patches asperities far from the hypocenter locations we find that both the denali fault and kunlun fault earthquakes had high average rupture velocities of 3 2 km sec and 3 4 km sec respectively we also compared the source properties of these two earthquakes with other strike slip earthquakes for scaling purposes large strike slip earthquakes were classified as interplate oceanic intraplate or continental intraplate events by using this classification the denali fault and kunlun fault earthquakes have an interplate signature that suggests overall weak faulting

earthquake monitoring in southern california for seventy seven years 1932 2008 the southern california seismic network scsn has produced the scsn earthquake catalog from 1932 to the present a period of more than 77 yrs this catalog consists of phase picks hypocenters and magnitudes we present the history of the scsn and the evolution of the catalog to facilitate user understanding of its limitations and strengths hypocenters and magnitudes have improved in quality with time as the number of stations has increased gradually from 7 to 400 and the data acquisition and measuring procedures have become more sophisticated the magnitude of completeness m c of the network has improved from m c 3 25 in the early years to m c 1 8 at present or better in the most densely instrumented areas mainshock aftershock and swarm sequences and scattered individual background earthquakes characterize the seismicity of more than 470 000 events the earthquake frequency size distribution has an average b value of 1 0 with m 6 0 events occurring approximately every 3 yrs the three largest earthquakes recorded were 1952 m w 7 5 kern county 1992 m w 7 3 landers and 1999 m w 7 1 hector mine sequences and the three most damaging earthquakes were the 1933 m w 6 4 long beach 1971 m w 6 7 san fernando and 1994 m w 6 7 northridge earthquakes all of these events ruptured slow slipping faults located away from the main plate boundary fault the san andreas fault their aftershock sequences constitute about a third of the events in the catalog the fast slipping southern san andreas fault is relatively quiet at the microseismic level and has not had an m 6 earthquake since 1932 in contrast the slower san jacinto fault has the highest level of seismicity including several m 6 events thus the spatial and temporal seismicity patterns exhibit a complex relationship with the plate tectonic crustal deformation

fundamental questions of earthquake statistics source behavior and the estimation of earthquake probabilities from possible foreshocks abstract estimates of the probability that an m l 4 8 earthquake which occurred near the southern end of the san andreas fault on 24 march 2009 would be followed by an m 7 mainshock over the following three days vary from 0 0009 using a gutenberg richter model of aftershock statistics reasenberg and jones 1989 to 0 04 using a statistical model of foreshock behavior and long term estimates of large earthquake probabilities including characteristic earthquakes agnew and jones 1991 i demonstrate that the disparity between the existing approaches depends on whether or not they conform to gutenberg richter behavior while gutenberg richter behavior is well established over large regions it could be violated on individual faults if they have characteristic earthquakes or over small areas if the spatial distribution of large event nucleations is disproportional to the rate of smaller events i develop a new form of the aftershock model that includes characteristic behavior and combines the features of both models this new model and the older foreshock model yield the same results when given the same inputs but the new model has the advantage of producing probabilities for events of all magnitudes rather than just for events larger than the initial one compared with the aftershock model the new model has the advantage of taking into account long term earthquake probability models using consistent parameters the probability of an m 7 mainshock on the southernmost san andreas fault is 0 0001 for three days from long term models and the clustering probabilities following the m l 4 8 event are 0 00035 for a gutenberg richter distribution and 0 013 for a characteristic earthquake magnitude frequency distribution our decisions about the existence of characteristic earthquakes and how large earthquakes nucleate have a first order effect on the probabilities obtained from short term clustering models for these large events

slip rate on the wellington fault new zealand during the late quaternary evidence for variable slip during the holocene we investigate fault offset fluvial terraces at two sites along the hutt river near wellington new zealand to determine horizontal slip rates for the southern part of the wellington fault for the last 100 ka using photogrammetric analysis of historic aerial photos we measured the original displacements of terrace risers at emerald hill which have been modified by urban development fourteen sediment samples from this site and from another location dry creek were analyzed using optically stimulated luminescence osl methods yielding ages of between 10 ka and 100 ka from our displacement age relations we estimate an average slip rate of graphic 1 2 during the last 100 ka however slip on the wellington fault has not been steady throughout this time during the holocene there was a phase of heightened ground rupture activity between 10 and 8 ka when an incremental dextral displacement of 32 m accrued this was followed by a period of relative quiescence between 8 and 4 5 ka with 5 m of displacement during this time another period of heightened activity followed resulting in a further 20 m of slip during the last 4 5 ka our inference of variable slip during the holocene accords with independent evidence from paleoseismological studies at other sites along the wellington fault slip on the wellington fault and its variability through time may be influenced by activity on neighboring faults online material part i optically stimulated luminescence osl dating technical report and results part 2 stratigraphic logs 1 embed inline graphic 1 gif

earthquake frequency distribution and the mechanics of faulting the level of intraplate seismicity in japan generally shows a positive correlation with the density of quaternary faulting in southwest japan where intraplate seismicity is concentrated on land rates of seismic moment release m 0 are similar when calculated from either the 400 year historical record of seismicity or geologically determined slip rates of quaternary faults a data set of 18 earthquakes with seismic moments m0 ranging from 0 01 to 3 1027 dyn cm shows a relationship between rupture lengthl and m0 log m0 23 5 1 94 log l when seismic moment on each quaternary fault is assumed to occur in discrete events every t m0 m 0g years where m0 is estimated for a rupture extended over the entire fault length and m 0g is proportional to the slip rate of each quaternary fault the moment frequency distribution of earthquakes log n a b log m0 predicted from the geologic record is virtually identical to that seen with the 400 year record of seismicity in contrast if it is assumed that earthquakes on each fault occur according to the gutenberg richter relation we obtain poor agreement with the observed seismicity thus while regional seismicity satisfies the relation log n a b log m0 or equivalently log n a b log m where m is magnitude it appears that seismicity on individual faults does not this further implies that the primary factor that leads to the magnitude frequency distribution in regional seismicity studies is the relative distribution of the slip rates and lengths of preexisting faults

a 2500 yr long paleoseismologic record of large infrequent earthquakes on the north anatolian fault at cukurcimen turkey paleoseismologic trenches excavated across the north anatolian fault near the village of cukurcimen in north central turkey yield a complete record of surface ruptures for the past 2500 yr the trenches provide mutually consistent evidence for the timing of the five most recent surface ruptures at the site as well as at least two older events these are interpreted as 1 the historic 1939 m w 7 9 earthquake 2 the historic 1254 a d earthquake 3 the historic 1045 a d earthquake 4 an earthquake that probably occurred late in the interval between 250 and 540 a d possibly the historic 499 a d earthquake and 5 an earthquake that occurred sometime between 770 and 50 b c and probably between 230 and 50 b c one additional earthquake occurred sometime between 1450 and 800 b c and at least one other surface rupture occurred between 2880 and 200 b c but the stratigraphic section at the site was not completely exposed for sediments older than 2500 yr as a result it is unclear whether the oldest event horizons represent a single earthquake or multiple events our findings when coupled with other published results and the historical record enable us to construct a space time history of earthquakes along the north anatolian fault the most striking aspects of this analysis are 1 the rarity of earthquakes at any given place along the fault suggesting that the fault typically ruptures in large infrequent events 2 earthquake occurrence is relatively temporally regular with inter event times that range from 200 to 900 yr and vary by a factor of only 3 4 and 3 almost the entire length of the north anatolian fault ruptured in short lived clusters of activity in the seventeenth to eighteenth centuries and in the tenth to twelfth centuries similar to the twentieth century sequence the magnitude and sequence of the individual ruptures however have varied considerably between clusters moreover the paleoseismologic and historical data indicate that the north anatolian fault does not always rupture in sequences similar to the twentieth century cluster these results suggest that the relatively regular recurrence of rare large magnitude earthquakes may be the expected mode of earthquake occurrence on mature strike slip faults in settings where such faults are structurally isolated from other major seismic sources

san andreas fault zone california m 5 5 earthquake history the san andreas fault zone has been a very significant source of major california earthquakes from 1812 to 1906 it generated four major earthquakes of m 7 or larger in two pairs on two major portions of the fault a pair of major earthquakes occurred on the central to southern region where the 1857 faulting overlapped the 1812 earthquake faulting a pair of major earthquakes occurred on the northern region where the 1906 faulting overlapped the 1838 earthquake faulting also earthquakes of m 7 occurred in the san francisco bay area on the hayward fault in 1868 and the santa cruz mountains near loma prieta in 1989 and on the imperial fault near the border with mexico in 1940 the 1838 earthquake s damage effects throughout the bay area from san francisco to santa clara valley and monterey were unequalled by any historical earthquake other than the 1906 event this and numerous strong possible aftershocks during the following 3 years in the san juan bautista vicinity suggest 1838 faulting from san francisco to san juan bautista cycles of seismicity and quiescence were associated with the bay area earthquakes of 1868 1906 and 1989 the 1868 earthquake on the hayward fault was preceded by 12 earthquakes of m 5 5 from 1855 to 1866 within 60 km of the hayward fault and was followed by 13 quiet years the 1906 san andreas fault event was preceded from 1881 to 1903 by 18 earthquakes of m 5 5 and was followed by quiescence with only three earthquakes of m 5 5 until 1954 the bay area has been seismically quiet at the m 5 5 level since the 1989 loma prieta earthquake and its 1990 aftershocks which contrasts with the 10 years before 1989 when five m 5 5 6 2 events occurred the loma prieta earthquake is of similar magnitude to the 1868 hayward event and could be followed by a similarly short quiet period the 1857 earthquake had immediate foreshocks in the lonoak bitterwater region 50 km northwest of parkfield in the northern end zone of the 1857 rupture extending southeast from bitterwater 70 km to parkfield the rate of seismic moment release has decreased with time since 1857 this may reflect the decay with time of the stress loading due to the 9 m 1857 fault displacements 80 km southeast of parkfield and explain why the predicted earthquake which was based on the assumption of regular recurrence of parkfield earthquakes has not yet occurred the extent of the 1812 earthquake fault rupture is not well defined jacoby et al 1988 estimated that it extended 170 km from cajon pass to tejon pass based on this estimate we present the hypothesis that the rupture occurred in two segments in december 1812 the eastern segment generated the 8 december earthquake that damaged san juan capistrano san gabriel san fernando and san buenaventura thirteen days later the western segment ruptured generating the earthquake that damaged san fernando and san buenaventura again as well as santa barbara santa ynez and purisima concepcion

prediction probabilities from foreshocks when any earthquake occurs the possibility that it might be a foreshock increases the probability that a larger earthquake will occur nearby within the next few days clearly the probability of a very large earthquake ought to be higher if the candidate foreshock were on or near a fault capable of producing that very large mainshock especially if the fault is towards the end of its seismic cycle we derive an expression for the probability of a major earthquake characteristic to a particular fault segment given the occurrence of a potential foreshock near the fault to evaluate this expression we need 1 the rate of background seismic activity in the area 2 the long term probability of a large earthquake on the fault and 3 the rate at which foreshocks precede large earthquakes as a function of time magnitude and spatial location for this last function we assume the average properties of foreshocks to moderate earthquakes in california 1 the rate of mainshock occurrence after foreshocks decays roughly as t 1 so that most foreshocks are within three days of their mainshock 2 foreshocks and mainshocks occur within 10 km of each other and 3 the fraction of mainshocks with foreshocks increases linearly as the magnitude threshold for foreshocks decreases with 50 of the mainshocks having foreshocks with magnitudes within three units of the mainshock magnitude within three days we apply our results to the san andreas hayward san jacinto and imperial faults using the probabilities of large earthquakes from the report of the working group on california earthquake probabilities 1988 the magnitude of candidate event required to produce a 1 probability of a large earthquake on the san andreas fault within three days ranges from a high of 5 3 for the segment in san gorgonio pass to a low of 3 6 for the carrizo plain

uniform california earthquake rupture forecast version 2 ucerf 2 the 2007 working group on california earthquake probabilities wgcep 2007 presents the uniform california earthquake rupture forecast version 2 ucerf 2 this model comprises a time independent poisson process earthquake rate model developed jointly with the national seismic hazard mapping program and a time dependent earthquake probability model based on recent earthquake rates and stress renewal statistics conditioned on the date of last event the models were developed from updated statewide earthquake catalogs and fault deformation databases using a uniform methodology across all regions and implemented in the modular extensible open seismic hazard analysis framework the rate model satisfies integrating measures of deformation across the plate boundary zone and is consistent with historical seismicity data an overprediction of earthquake rates found at intermediate magnitudes 6 5 m 7 0 in previous models has been reduced to within the 95 confidence bounds of the historical earthquake catalog a logic tree with 480 branches represents the epistemic uncertainties of the full time dependent model the mean ucerf 2 time dependent probability of one or more m 6 7 earthquakes in the california region during the next 30 yr is 99 7 this probability decreases to 46 for m 7 5 and to 4 5 for m 8 0 these probabilities do not include the cascadia subduction zone largely north of california for which the estimated 30 yr m 8 0 time dependent probability is 10 the m 6 7 probabilities on major strike slip faults are consistent with the wgcep 2003 study in the san francisco bay area and the wgcep 1995 study in southern california except for significantly lower estimates along the san jacinto and elsinore faults owing to provisions for larger multisegment ruptures important model limitations are discussed

viscosity of oceanic asthenosphere inferred from remote triggering of earthquakes a sequence of large interplate earthquakes from 1952 to 1965 along the aleutian arc and kurile kamchatka trench released accumulated stresses along nearly the entire northern portion of the pacific plate boundary the postseismic stress evolution across the northern pacific and arctic basins calculated from a viscoelastic coupling model with an asthenospheric viscosity of 5 x 10 17 pascal seconds is consistent with triggering of oceanic intraplate earthquakes temporal patterns in seismicity at remote plate boundaries and space based geodetic measurements of anomalous velocity over an area 7000 by 7000 kilometers square during the 30 year period after the sequence

revised dates of large earthquakes along the carrizo section of the san andreas fault california since a d 1310 30 1 precise knowledge of the age and magnitude of past earthquakes is essential for characterizing models of earthquake recurrence and key to forecasting future earthquakes we present 28 new radiocarbon analyses that refine the chronology of the last five earthquakes at the bidart fan site along the carrizo section of the south central san andreas fault which last ruptured during the fort tejon earthquake in a d 1857 the new data show that the penultimate earthquake in the carrizo plain occurred not earlier than a d 1640 and the modeled 95th percentile ranges of the three earlier earthquakes and their mean are a d 1540 1630 1585 a d 1360 1425 1393 and a d 1280 1340 1310 indicating an average time interval of 137 44 years between large earthquakes since a d 1310 30 a robust earthquake recurrence model of the carrizo section will require even more well dated earthquakes for thorough characterization however these new data imply that since a d 1310 30 the carrizo section has failed more regularly and more often than previously thought

statistical evaluation of characteristic earthquakes in the frequency magnitude distributions of sumatra and other subduction zone regions 1 if subduction zone earthquakes conform to a characteristic model in which persistent segments fail at predictable stress levels due to the steady accumulation of tectonic loading historical seismicity may constrain the occurrence of future events we test this model for earthquakes on the sumatra andaman megathrust and other subduction zones using frequency magnitude distributions using simulations we show that poisson confidence intervals correctly account for the counting errors of histogram data these confidence intervals demonstrate that we cannot reject the gutenberg richter distribution in favor of a characteristic model in any of the real catalogues tested a visual bias in power law count data at high magnitudes combined with a sample bias for large earthquakes is sufficient to explain candidate characteristic events this result implies that historical earthquakes are likely poor models for future events and that monte carlo simulations will provide a better assessment of earthquake and associated hazards

missing links in earthquake clustering models 1 many clustering models imply two kinds of earthquakes spontaneous ones and those triggered by previous earthquakes the pair wise links from earlier to later earthquakes control the estimates of the clustering parameters however earthquake catalogs are limited in time space and magnitude so that triggers of some cataloged earthquakes may be unknown thus some links are unrecognized and some triggered events appear spontaneous here we present a method for identifying such earthquakes and reducing the bias from missing links we treat earthquakes probably affected by missing links as potential triggers but we exclude them in evaluating modeled effects we use an epidemic type aftershock sequence etas model to examine specifics the most affected parameter is the proportion of spontaneous earthquakes the most important missing links apparently follow earthquakes below the magnitude threshold before the start and outside the spatial boundaries of the catalog in that order

rare earth element abundances and distribution patterns in hydrothermally altered basalts experimental results oceanic tholeiites that have been experimentally reacted with seawater at 500 600 c 800 1000 bars have rare earth element ree abundances and distribution patterns that are essentially identical to those of the unaltered basalts although the data indicate the possibility of some ree leaching and redistribution the net effects are small and the ree patterns of basalts affected by submarine hydrothermal processes may still be valid petrogenetic indicators

a more precise chronology of earthquakes produced by the san andreas fault in southern california improved methods of radiocarbon analysis have enabled us to date more precisely the earthquake ruptures of the san andreas fault that are recorded in the sediments at pallett creek previous dates of these events had 95 confidence errors of 50 100 calendar years new error limits are less than 23 calendar years for all but two of the dated events this greater precision is due to larger sample size longer counting time lower background noise levels more precise conversion of radiocarbon ages to calendric dates and better stratigraphic constraints and statistical techniques the new date ranges with one exception fall within the broader ranges estimated previously but our estimate of the average interval between the latest 10 episodes of faulting is now about 132 years variability about the mean interval is much greater than was suspected previously five of the nine intervals are shorter than a century three of the remaining four intervals are about two to three centuries long despite the wide range of these intervals a pattern in the occurrence of large earthquakes at pallett creek is apparent in the new data the past 10 earthquakes occur in four clusters each of which consists of two or three events earthquakes within the clusters are separated by periods of several decades but the clusters are separated by dormant periods of two to three centuries this pattern may reflect important mechanical aspects of the fault s behavior if this pattern continues into the future the current period of dormancy will probably be greater than two centuries this would mean that the section of the fault represented by the pallett creek site is currently in the middle of one of its longer periods of repose between clusters and sections of the fault farther to the southeast are much more likely to produce the next great earthquake in california the greater precision of dates now available for large earthquakes recorded at the pallett creek site enables speculative correlation of events between paleoseismic sites along the southern half of the san andreas fault a history of great earthquakes with overlapping rupture zones along the mojave section of the fault remains one of the more attractive possibilities

improved tests reveal that the accelerating moment release hypothesis is statistically insignificant 1 we test the hypothesis that accelerating moment release amr is a precursor to large earthquakes using data from california nevada and sumatra spurious cases of amr can arise from data fitting because the time period area and sometimes magnitude range analyzed before each main shock are often optimized to produce the strongest amr signal optimizing the search criteria can identify apparent amr even if no robust signal exists for both 1950 2006 california nevada m 6 5 earthquakes and the 2004 m9 3 sumatra earthquake we can find two contradictory patterns in the pre main shock earthquakes by data fitting amr and decelerating moment release we compare the apparent amr found in the real data to the apparent amr found in four types of synthetic catalogs with no inherent amr when spatiotemporal clustering is included in the simulations similar amr signals are found by data fitting in both the real and synthetic data sets even though the synthetic data sets contain no real amr these tests demonstrate that apparent amr may arise from a combination of data fitting and normal foreshock and aftershock activity in principle data fitting artifacts could be avoided if the free parameters were determined from scaling relationships between the duration and spatial extent of the amr pattern and the magnitude of the earthquake that follows it however we demonstrate that previously proposed scaling relationships are unstable statistical artifacts caused by the use of a minimum magnitude for the earthquake catalog that scales with the main shock magnitude some recent amr studies have used spatial regions based on hypothetical stress loading patterns rather than circles to select the data we show that previous tests were biased and that unbiased tests do not find this change to the method to be an improvement the use of declustered catalogs has also been proposed to eliminate the effect of clustering but we demonstrate that this does not increase the statistical significance of amr given the ease with which data fitting can find desired patterns in seismicity future studies of amr like observations must include complete tests against synthetic catalogs that include spatiotemporal clustering

global variations of stress drop for moderate to large earthquakes 1 we investigate the global variation of earthquake stress drops using spectra of about 2000 events of mb 5 5 between 1990 and 2007 we use an iterative least squares method to isolate source displacement spectra from travel path and receiver contributions based on a convolutional model the observed p wave source spectra are corrected with a globally averaged empirical correction spectrum and estimates of near source attenuation assuming a brune type source model we estimate corner frequencies and compute stress drops stress drop estimates for individual earthquakes range from about 0 3 to 50 mpa but the median stress drop of about 4 mpa does not vary with moment implying earthquake self similarity over the mw 5 2 to 8 3 range of our data a comparison of our results with previous studies confirms this observation over most of the instrumentally observable magnitude range while the absolute values of our estimated stress drops depend upon the assumed source model we identify relative regional variations of stress drop that are robust with respect to the processing parameters and modeling assumptions which includes an inherent assumption of constant rupture velocity we find a dependence of median stress drop on focal mechanism with a factor of 3 5 times higher stress drops for strike slip earthquakes and also find a factor of 2 times higher stress drops for intraplate earthquakes compared to interplate earthquakes

long term earthquake clustering a 50 000 year paleoseismic record in the dead sea graben the temporal distribution of earthquakes in the dead sea graben is studied through a 50 000 year paleoseismic record recovered in laminated sediments of the late pleistocene lake lisan paleo dead sea the lisan represents more than 10 times the 4000 years of historical earthquake records it is the longest and most complete paleoseismic record along the dead sea transform and possibly the longest continuous record on earth it includes unique exposures of seismite beds earthquake induced structures associated with slip events on syndepositional faults the seismites are layers consisting of mixtures of fragmented and pulverized laminae the places where the seismites abut syndepositional faults are interpreted as evidence for their formation at the sediment water interface during slip events on these faults thicker sediment accumulation above the seismites in the downthrown blocks indicates that a seismite formed at the water sediment interface on both sides of the fault scarps modern analogs and the association with surface ruptures suggest that each seismite formed during a m l 5 5 earthquake the 230 th 234 u ages of a columnar section obtained by thermal ionization mass spectrometry give a mean recurrence time of 1600 years of m l 5 5 earthquakes in the dead sea graben the earthquakes cluster in 10 000 year periods separated by quiet periods of similar length this distribution implies that a long term behavior of the dead sea transform should be represented by a mean recurrence of at least 20 000 year record this observation has ramifications for seismic hazard assessment based on shorter records

long term fault slip rates distributed deformation rates and forecast of seismicity in the western united states from joint fitting of community geologic geodetic and stress direction data sets 1 the long term average velocity field of the western united states is computed with a kinematic finite element code community data sets include fault traces geologic offset rates geodetic velocities principal stress directions and euler poles there is an irreducible minimum amount of distributed permanent deformation which accommodates one third of pacific north america relative motion in california much of this may be due to slip on faults not included in the model all data sets are fit at a common rms level of 1 8 datum standard deviations experiments with alternate weights fault sets and euler poles define a suite of acceptable community models in pseudoprospective tests fault offset rates are compared to 126 additional published rates not used in the computation 44 are consistent another 48 have discrepancies under 1 mm a 1 and 8 have larger discrepancies updated models are then computed novel predictions include dextral slip at 2 3 mm a 1 in the brothers fault zone two alternative solutions for the mendocino triple junction slower slip on some trains of the san andreas fault than in recent hazard models and clockwise rotation of some domains in the eastern california shear zone long term seismicity is computed by assigning each fault and finite element the seismicity parameters coupled thickness corner magnitude and spectral slope of the most comparable type of plate boundary this long term seismicity forecast is retrospectively compared to instrumental seismicity the western united states has been 37 below its long term average seismicity during 1977 2008 primarily because of temporary reduced activity in the cascadia subduction zone and san andreas fault system

fault behavior and characteristic earthquakes examples from the wasatch and san andreas fault zones paleoseismological data for the wasatch and san andreas fault zones have led to the formulation of the characteristic earthquake model which postulates that individual faults and fault segments tend to generate essentially same size or characteristic earthquakes having a relatively narrow range of magnitudes near the maximum analysis of scarp derived colluvium in trench exposures across the wasatch fault provides estimates of the timing and displacement associated with individual surface faulting earthquakes at all of the sites studied the displacement per event has been consistently large measured values range from 1 6 to 2 6 m and the average is about 2 m on the basis of variability in the timing of individual events as well as changes in scarp morphology and fault geometry six major segments are recognized along the wasatch fault on the basis of the most likely number of surface faulting events 18 that have occurred on segments of the wasatch fault zone during the past 8000 years an average recurrence interval of 400 666 years with a preferred average of 444 years is calculated for the entire zone geologic data on the distribution of slip associated with prehistoric earthquakes and slip rates along the south central segment of the san andreas fault suggest that the m 8 1857 earthquake is a characteristic earthquake for this segment comparisons of earthquake recurrence relationships on both the wasatch and san andreas faults based on historical seismicity data and geologic data show that a linear constant b value extrapolation of the cumulative recurrence curve from the smaller magnitudes leads to gross underestimates of the frequency of occurrence of the large or characteristic earthquakes only by assuming a low b value in the moderate magnitude range can the seismicity data on small earthquakes be reconciled with geologic data on large earthquakes the characteristic earthquake appears to be a fundamental aspect of the behavior of the wasatch and san andreas faults and may apply to many other faults as well

century long average time intervals between earthquake ruptures of the san andreas fault in the carrizo plain california paleoseismological data constrain the age location and associated magnitude of past surface rupturing earthquakes these are critical parameters for developing and testing fault behavior models and characterizing seismic hazard we present new earthquake evidence and radiocarbon analyses that refi ne the chronology of the six most recent earthquakes that ruptured the south central san andreas fault in the carrizo plain california united states at the bidart fan site modeled 95 percentile ranges of the earthquakes prior to the a d 1857 earthquake are a d 1631 1823 1580 1640 1510 1612 1450 1475 and 1360 1452 the average time interval between the last six earthquakes that ruptured the san andreas fault in the carrizo plain is 88 41 yr this is less than the time since the most recent a d 1857 earthquake less than all reported average intervals of prehistoric earthquakes along the entire san andreas fault and signifi cantly shorter than the 235 yr average used in recent seismic hazard evaluations the new chronological data combined with recent slip studies imply that the magnitudes of the earthquakes that ruptured the southern san andreas fault in the carrizo plain since ca a d 1360 were variable and suggest that the widely held view of rare but great surface rupturing earthquakes along this portion of the southern san andreas fault should be reevaluated 118

persistent earthquake clusters and gaps from slip on irregular faults clustering of earthquakes at various spatial scales is the result of a heterogeneous distribution of stresses and at least for intermediate magnitude earthquakes areas that are quiet at present are likely to remain so in the future

statistics of characteristic earthquakes statistical methods are used to test the characteristic earthquake hypothesis several distributions of earthquake size seismic moment frequency relations are described based on the results of other researchers as well as my own tests evidence of the characteristic earthquake hypothesis can be explained either by statistical bias or statistical artifact since other distributions of earthquake size provide a simpler explanation for available information the hypothesis cannot be regarded as proven

the effect of loading rate on static friction and the rate of fault healing during the earthquake cycle the seismic cycle requires that faults strengthen heal between earthquakes and the rate of this healing process plays a key role in determining earthquake stress drop1 2 3 4 rupture characteristics5 6 and seismic scaling relations2 3 4 7 frictional healing as evidenced by increasing static friction during quasi stationary contact between two surfaces1 8 9 10 11 12 is considered the mechanism most likely to be responsible for fault strengthening2 3 13 14 previous studies however have shown a large discrepancy between laboratory and seismic field estimates of the healing rate2 3 4 14 15 in the laboratory rock friction changes by only a few per cent per order of magnitude change in slip rate whereas seismic stress drop increases by a factor of 2 to 5 per order of magnitude increase in earthquake recurrence interval but in such comparisons it is assumed that healing and static friction are independent of loading rate here i summarize laboratory measurements showing that static friction and healing vary with loading rate and time as expected from friction theory16 17 18 applying these results to seismic faulting and accounting for differences in laboratory seismic and tectonic slip rates i demonstrate that post seismic healing is expected to be retardedfor a period of several hundred days following an earthquake in agreement with recent findings from repeating earthquakes13 14 19 20

the earthquake potential of the new madrid seismic zone the fault system responsible for new madrid seismicity has generated temporally clustered very large earthquakes in a d 900 100 years and a d 1450 150 years as well as in 1811 1812 given the uncertainties in dating liquefaction features the time between the past three new madrid events may be as short as 200 years and as long as 800 years with an average of 500 years this advance in understanding the late holocene history of the new madrid seismic zone and thus the contemporary tectonic behavior of the associated fault system was made through studies of hundreds of earthquake induced liquefaction features at more than 250 sites across the new madrid region we have found evidence that prehistoric sand blows like those that formed during the 1811 1812 earthquakes are probably com pound structures resulting from multiple earthquakes closely clustered in time or earthquake sequences from the spatial distribution and size of sand blows and their sedimentary units we infer the source zones and estimate the magnitudes of earth quakes within each sequence and thereby characterize the detailed behavior of the fault system it appears that fault rupture was complex and that the central branch of the seismic zone produced very large earthquakes during the a d 900 and a d 1450 events as well as in 1811 1812 on the basis of a minimum recurrence rate of 200 years we are now entering the period during which the next 1811 1812 type event could occur

long range and long term fault interactions in southern california paleoseismological data suggest the occurrence of four bursts of seismic moment release in the los angeles region during the past 12 000 yr the historic period appears to be part of an ongoing lull that has persisted for about the past 1000 yr these periods of rapid seismic displacement in the los angeles region have occurred during the lulls between similar bursts of activity observed on the eastern california shear zone in the mojave desert which is now seismically active a kinematic model in which the faults of the greater san andreas system suppress activity on faults in the eastern california shear zone and vice versa can explain the apparent switching of activity between the two fault networks combined with the observation that short term geodetic and longer term geologic rates co vary on major southern california fault systems this suggests that either 1 a temporal cluster of seismic displacements on upper crustal faults increases ductile deformation on their downward extensions or 2 rapid ductile slip in the lower crust beneath faults loads the upper crust driving a seismic cluster we suggest that alternating periods of rapid seismic displacement may be the expected mode of seismicity when two fault systems accommodate the same plate boundary motion and slip on one system suppresses slip on the other

foreshocks and aftershocks of the great 1857 california earthquake the san andreas fault is the longest fault in california and one of the longest strike slip faults anywhere in the world yet we know little about many aspects of its behavior before during and after large earthquakes we conducted a study to locate and to estimate magnitudes for the largest foreshocks and aftershocks of the 1857 m 7 9 fort tejon earthquake on the central and southern segments of the fault we began by searching archived first hand accounts from 1857 through 1862 by grouping felt reports temporally and by assigning modified mercalli intensities to each site we then used a modified form of the grid search algorithm of bakun and wentworth derived from empirical analysis of modern earthquakes to find the location and magnitude most consistent with the assigned intensities for each of the largest events the result confirms a conclusion of sieh that at least two foreshocks dawn and sunrise located on or near the parkfield segment of the san andreas fault preceded the mainshock we estimate their magnitudes to be m 6 1 and m 5 6 respectively the aftershock rate was below average but within one standard deviation of the number of aftershocks expected based on statistics of modern southern california mainshock aftershock sequences the aftershocks included two significant events during the first eight days of the sequence with magnitudes m 6 25 and m 6 7 near the southern half of the rupture later aftershocks included a m 6 event near san bernardino in december 1858 and a m 6 3 event near the parkfield segment in april 1860 from earthquake logs at fort tejon we conclude that the aftershock sequence lasted a minimum of 3 75 years

effects of temporal variations in seismicity on seismic hazard the accuracy of stationary mathematical models of seismicity for calculating probabilities of damaging shaking is examined using the history of earthquakes in china from 1350 a d to 1949 a d during this time rates of seismic activity varied periodically by a factor of 10 probabilities of damaging shaking are calculated in 62 cities in north china using 50 yr of earthquake data to estimate seismicity parameters the probabilities are compared to statistics of damaging shaking in the same cities for 50 yr following the data window these comparisons indicate that the seismic hazard analysis is accurate if 1 the maximum possible earthquake size in each seismogenic zone is determined from the entire seismic history rather than from a short time window and 2 the future seismic activity can be estimated accurately the first condition emphasizes the importance of realistically estimating the maximum possible size of earthquakes on faults the second indicates the need to understand possible trends in seismic activity where these exist or to develop an earthquake prediction capability with which to estimate future activity without the capability of estimating future seismicity stationary models provide less accurate but generally conservative indications of seismic ground shaking hazard in the united states the available earthquake history is brief but gives no indication of changing rates of activity the rate of seismic strain release in the central and eastern united states has been constant over the last 180 yr and the geological record of earthquakes on the southern san andreas fault indicates no temporal trend for large shocks over the last 15 centuries both observations imply that seismic activity is either stationary or of such a long period that it may be treated as stationary for seismic hazard analyses in the united states

the magnitude distribution of earthquakes near southern california faults we investigate seismicity near faults in the southern california earthquake center community fault model we search for anomalously large events that might be signs of a characteristic earthquake distribution we find that seismicity near major fault zones in southern california is well modeled by a gutenberg richter distribution with no evidence of characteristic earthquakes within the resolution limits of the modern instrumental catalog however the b value of the locally observed magnitude distribution is found to depend on distance to the nearest mapped fault segment which suggests that earthquakes nucleating near major faults are likely to have larger magnitudes relative to earthquakes nucleating far from major faults

san andreas fault rupture scenarios from multiple paleoseismic records stringing pearls we present a new method to objectively combine paleoseismic event data from multiple sites into rupture scenarios and apply it to the southern san andreas fault ssaf of california first a pool is constructed of all ruptures between sites allowed by fault geometry and available event age probability distribution functions pdfs scenarios constructed by drawing from this pool are evaluated by the average quality of agreement event dating evidence by the degree of misfit of cumulative displacement over all ruptures compared to a prediction from the fault slip rate and elapsed time and by the number of events in the scenario three slip rate models from the 2008 working group on california earthquake probabilities wgcep were considered scenarios with full fault length ruptures tend to be inconsistent with low slip rates through the san bernardino and san gorgonio sections of the ssaf favorable scenarios tend to include 1857 like ruptures for three of the most recent five prehistoric ruptures in the northern half of the ssaf from carrizo to approximately wrightwood they also include one to two ruptures that involve the southern half of the ssaf but most earthquakes there appear shorter and exhibit less consistency from event to event by combining paleoseismic data into ensembles of scenarios and selecting viable scenarios using external constraints our method provides rupture histories useful for seismic hazard assessment without having to first settle which event at a site correlates with those at adjoining sites this opens a way for paleoseismic data to be used with greater power to understand the seismic hazard posed by faults like the southern san andreas

displacement and geometrical characteristics of earthquake surface ruptures issues and implications for seismic hazard analysis and the process of earthquake rupture there now exist about three dozen historical earthquakes for which in vestigators have constructed maps of earthquake rupture traces accompanied by de scriptions of the coseismic slip observed along the fault strike the maps and slip distributions are compiled here to place observational bounds on aspects of seismic hazard analysis and fault mechanics analysis leads to an initial statistical basis to predict the end points of rupture and the amount of surface slip expected at sites along the strike during earthquakes on mapped faults the observations also give support to the ideas that there exists a process zone or volume of about 3 4 km in dimension at the fronts of large laterally propagating earthquake ruptures within which stress changes may be sufficient to trigger slip on adjacent faults and that the ultimate length of earthquake ruptures is controlled primarily by the geometrical complexity of fault traces and variations in accumulated stress levels along faults that arise due to the location of past earthquakes to this may be added the observation that the form of earthquake surface slip distributions is better described by asymmetric rather than symmetric curve forms and that earthquake epicenters do not appear to correlate in any systematic manner to regions of maximum surface slip observed along strike online material maps of surface ruptures digitized values and curve fits to surface slip distributions and notes and references for tables 1 and 2