interannual enso and interdecadal enso like variability in the southern hemisphere tropospheric circulation abstract recent work has identified variability in the pacific ocean sst with a structure qualitatively similar to enso but at lower frequencies than enso zhang et al have documented the atmospheric circulation anomalies in the tropics and northern hemisphere that are associated with decadal enso like variability and compared these anomalies to those associated with the interannual enso cycle here the authors extend the study of zhang et al to the southern hemisphere using the national centers for environmental prediction national center for atmospheric research reanalysis data for 1958 96 consistent with previous studies the southern hemisphere circulation anomalies associated with enso display a teleconnection pattern from the central tropical pacific into the far southeastern pacific ocean comparatively larger circulation anomalies are found in the southern hemisphere associated with the decadal enso like variability though aloft the structure of the anomalies emphasizes the polar vortex wit

decadal variability in the kuroshio oyashio extension simulated in an eddy resolving ogcm abstract through analysis of a hindcast integration of an eddy resolving quasi global ocean general circulation model decadal variability in the kuroshio oyashio extension region is investigated with particular emphasis on that of the subarctic oyashio and the kuroshio extension ke fronts the ke front is deep and is accompanied by a sharp sea surface height ssh gradient with modest sea surface temperature sst gradient in contrast the subarctic front is shallow and is recognized as a zone of tight gradient in sst but not ssh as a decadal scale change from a warm period around 1970 to a cool period in the mid 1980s those fronts in the model migrate southward as observed and the associated pronounced cooling is confined mainly to those frontal zones reflecting the distinctive vertical structure of the fronts the mixed layer cooling is the strongest along the subarctic front whereas the subsurface cooling and the associated salinity changes are most pronounced along the ke front concomitan

anatomy of north pacific decadal variability abstract a systematic analysis of north pacific decadal variability in a full physics coupled ocean atmosphere model is executed the model is an updated and improved version of the coupled model studied by latif and barnett evidence is sought for determining the details of the mechanism responsible for the enhanced variance of some variables at 20 30 yr timescales the possible mechanisms include a midlatitude gyre ocean atmosphere feedback loop stochastic forcing remote forcing or sampling error decadal variability in the model is expressed most prominently in anomalies of upper ocean streamfunction sea surface temperature sst and latent surface heat flux in the kuroshio oyashio extension koe region off japan the decadal signal off japan is initiated by changes in strength and position of the aleutian low the atmospheric perturbations excite sst anomalies in the central and eastern north pacific with opposing signs and canonical structure the atmospheric perturbations also change the ekm

a coupled decadal prediction of the dynamic state of the kuroshio extension system abstractbeing the extension of a wind driven western boundary current the kuroshio extension ke has long been recognized as a turbulent current system rich in large amplitude meanders and energetic pinched off eddies an important feature emerging from recent satellite altimeter measurements and eddy resolving ocean model simulations is that the ke system exhibits well defined decadal modulations between a stable and an unstable dynamic state here the authors show that the decadally modulating ke dynamic state can be effectively defined by the sea surface height ssh anomalies in the 31 36 n 140 165 e region by utilizing the ssh based ke index from 1977 to 2012 they demonstrate that the time varying ke dynamic state can be predicted at lead times of up to 6 yr this long term predictability rests on two dynamic processes 1 the oceanic adjustment is via baroclinic rossby waves that carry interior wind forced anomalies westward into the ke region and 2 the low frequency ke variability influenc

interannual variability of the kuroshio transport in response to the wind stress field over the north pacific its relation to the path variation south of japan we have investigated the interannual variability in the kuroshio transport focusing on the baroclinic response of the upper ocean to the long term variation of the wind stress field over the north pacific from 1961 to 1987 first temporal change of the kuroshio transport at the western boundary from 17 to 31 n has been estimated on the assumptions that the kuroshio is a baroclinic flow confined in the upper layer and that the effect of interior wind stress curl on the volume transport at the western boundary is transferred by nondispersive baroclinic rossby wave peak values in the estimated transport appear in its beginning region 17 21 n when or just before the kuroshio settles into a meandering state south of japan in 1975 1981 and 1986 these peaks are due to negative wind stress curl anomalies which are induced by the intensified trade winds in the central and eastern tropical north pacific on and just after an el nino event and in the western tropical north pacific months to years before the next el nino event such peaks are not found in the barotropic sverdrup transport in downstream regions i e in the east china sea and south of japan north of 23 n on the contrary the estimated transports through baroclinic and barotropic responses do not have such good correlation to the path variation temporal change in thermocline depths estimated from bathythermograph data clearly shows the westward propagations of positive anomalies by nondispersive baroclinic rossby waves at latitudes of the beginning of the kuroshio south of 21 n which is in phase with peaks of the kuroshio baroclinic transport at the western boundary on the other hand there are only the local propagations of the anomalies in the downstream regions as previous studies reported however it is emphasized that temporal change of the geostrophic transport in the east china sea 28 n is coincident with that of the baroclinic transport at the beginning of the kuroshio not with that at the same latitude a numerical experiment with a nonlinear reduced gravity model confirms that temporal changes of the transport in the east china sea and south of japan are due to the advective nonlinear effect of the kuroshio itself while the linear baroclinic response to the wind stress field is dominant in its beginning region

decadal sea level variability in the south pacific in a global eddy resolving ocean model hindcast sea level variability and related oceanic changes in the south pacific from 1970 to 2003 are investigated using a hindcast simulation of an eddy resolving ocean general circulation model ogcm for the earth simulator ofes along with sea level data from tide gauges since 1970 and a satellite altimeter since 1992 the first empirical orthogonal function mode of sea level anomalies slas of ofes exhibits broad positive slas over the central and western south pacific the corresponding principal component indicates roughly stable high low and high slas separated by a rapid sea level fall in the late 1970s and sea level rise in the late 1990s consistent with tide gauge and satellite observations these decadal changes are accompanied by circulation changes of the subtropical gyre at 1000 m depth and changes of upper ocean zonal current and eddy activity around the tasman front in general agreement with previous related studies it is found that sea level variations in the tasman sea can be explained by propagation of long baroclinic rossby waves forced by wind stress curl anomalies if the impact of new zealand is taken into account the corresponding atmospheric variations are associated with decadal variability of el nino southern oscillation enso thus decadal sea level variability in the western and central south pacific in the past three and half decades and decadal enso variability are likely to be connected the sea level rise in the 1990s which attracted much attention in relation to the global warming is likely associated with the decadal cooling in the tropical pacific

pacific thermocline bridge revisited abstract the coupling on decadal time scales of the mid latitude and tropical pacific via an oceanic bridge in the thermocline is investigated using ocean general circulation model hindcasts and a coupled ocean atmosphere model results indicate that in the tropics decadal anomalies of isopycnal depth are forced by ekman pumping and are largely independent of the arrival of subducted anomalies in the thermocline that originate in the mid latitudes of either hemisphere in the coupled model temperature anomalies on isopycnals show little coupling from the tropics to the northern hemisphere but are lag correlated between southern hemisphere mid and low latitudes however anomaly magnitudes on the equator are small these results suggest that the oceanic bridge to the northern hemisphere explains only a small part of the observed decadal variance in the equatorial pacific coupling to the southern mid latitudes via temperature anomalies on isopycnals remains an intriguing possibility

characteristic variations of sea surface temperature with multiple time scales in the north pacific abstract temporal evolution and spectral structure of sea surface temperature sst anomalies in the north pacific over the last 37 years are investigated on the three characteristic time scales shorter than 24 months hf 24 60 months es and longer than 60 months dc the leading empirical orthogonal function eof for the dc time scale is characterized by a zonally elongated monopole centered at around 40 n 180 the leading eof for the hf time scale is somewhat similar to that for the dc time scale although there are two centers of action with the same polarity at the mid and western pacific the leading eof for the es time scale however exhibits a different pattern whose center of action at the mid pacific is located farther southeastward in the time evolution of the sst anomalies associated with the leading eof of the dc time scale several anomaly periods can be identified that last five years or longer the transition from a persistent period to another with the opposite polarity is gene

north pacific thermocline variations on enso timescales abstract the north pacific thermocline 250 to 400 m is studied using xbt observations acquired during the 1970s and 1980s interannual variations 3 5 yr timescales in thermocline temperature with o 0 1 c amplitude at 400 m are found to exhibit westward propagation throughout the extratropical north pacific up to 45 n southward of 30 n the features propagate intact across the basin from the eastern boundary to the western boundary northward of 30 n the features can be observed to propagate only as far as the date line the observed midlatitude thermocline anomalies are often related to tropical enso events in that they occur most strongly after the development of tropical el nino or la nina conditions and propagate westward from near the eastern boundary in the midlatitudes but it is found that the observed midlatitude thermocline anomalies have larger phase speeds than theoretically predicted free baroclinic rossby waves also the observed anomalies have larger wavelength and faster propagati

decadal oscillations in a simple coupled model to study the dynamics that may lead to decadal oscillations in the north pacific a simple coupled model is developed the ocean is based on the linear potential vorticity equation for baroclinic planetary waves the atmosphere is reduced to a nonlocal wind response to thermocline depth anomalies the wind stress has a spatially fixed structure and its amplitude depends on the thermocline perturbation at one location or in a predefined index region such a simple coupled model produces decadal oscillations for suitable parameter choices for realistic wind stress patterns the patterns of oceanic variability are similar to those observed it is determined by the speed of long rossby waves at the coupling latitude the period of the oscillation is rather insensitive to the coupling strength and amounts to approximately twice the time the rossby wave needs to travel from the center of the wind stress curl anomaly to the coupling location a stochastic component to the atmospheric forcing is incorporated by white noise added to the feedback with such a forcing typical oceanic spectra become red with a broad peak at decadal timescales superimposed

a decadal spiciness mode in the tropics analysis of a complex climate model suggests the existence of a mode of coupled ocean atmosphere variability in the tropical pacific with the following dynamics anomalous strong pacific trade winds accelerate the north equatorial current and countercurrent at 10 to 15 n in the central pacific thermocline this causes anomalous advection across mean gradients of temperature and salinity on isopycnal surfaces and generates cool fresh spiciness anomalies of the order of 0 3 k these are advected by the mean circulation via the western boundary region to the equatorial pacific in approximately five years at the equatorial outcrops of the isopycnals the cool fresh anomalies affect the surface heat budget and are hypothesized to initiate a relaxation of the trade winds that is reinforced by positive feedbacks with the slope of the thermocline and with air sea fluxes of heat and freshwater at 5 to 10 s the decrease of the trades generates by anomalous advection cool fresh spiciness anomalies that migrate to the equator in one to two years and provide a positive feedback at 10 to 15 n the decrease of the trades decelerates north equatorial current and countercurrent and causes warm salty anomalies on isopycnals that arrive at the equator five years later and close the cycle

interdecadal thermocline variability in the north pacific for 1958 97 a gcm simulation an ocean general circulation model is forced with the ncep reanalysis wind stress for 1958 97 to understand mechanisms of ocean subsurface variability with relatively high horizontal 1 83 18 and vertical 41 levels resolutions the model produces mode waters on a range of density surfaces in the western central and eastern north pacific in qualitative agreement with observations these mode waters appear as a thermostad or a region of weak stratification in the upper thermocline as they flow southward from their formation regions in the kuroshio and its extension in the model subsurface temperature variability in the central subtropical gyre reaches a maximum within the thermostad in contrast to what might be expected from the linear baroclinic rossby wave theory this variance maximum is associated with the longitudinal shift in the path of mode waters in particular deepened mixed layer and accelerated eastward currents in the kuroshio extension by wind changes in the mid 1970s act cooperatively to move the central mode waters toward the east causing large subsurface temperature anomalies besides the local maximum in the central north pacific subtropical gyre two additional maxima of the subsurface anomaly are identified in the northwestern and southern parts of the gyre respectively among these subsurface anomaly centers the one in the northwestern north pacific has a strong effect on the model sea surface temperature suggesting that the kuroshio and its extension are a key region to decadal interdecadal ocean atmosphere interaction finally possible effects of atmospheric thermal forcing are discussed

the modeled atmospheric response to midlatitude sst anomalies and its dependence on background circulation states abstract the atmospheric response to a midlatitude sst anomaly in the north pacific and its dependence on background flow are examined in a gcm experiments are conducted using the same warm sst anomalies but two different model states perpetual january and perpetual february the atmospheric responses to the sst anomalies are statistically significant in both january and february but are completely different the anomalous circulation in january is characterized by a trough decaying with height immediately downstream of the sst anomalies in february the anomalous circulation is dominated by a downstream ridge growing with height the patterns of the anomalous heights in the two months are nearly orthogonal vorticity and thermodynamic budgets are diagnosed to illustrate how the anomalous circulations are maintained over the sst anomalies low level convergence and ascent are observed in both months in january the anomalous convergence is balanced by a residual due primarily to the forcing by submont

quasi periodicity and global symmetries in interdecadal upper ocean temperature variability recent studies find interannual i e 3 to 7 year decadal i e 9 to 13 year and interdecadal i e 18 to 23 year periodicities and a trend dominating global sea surface temperature sst and sea level pressure slp variability over the past hundred years with the interdecadal signal dominating sub el nino southern oscillation enso frequencies we isolate interdecadal frequencies in sst and slp records by band passing with a window admitting 15 to 30 year periods from 1900 to 1989 the rms of interdecadal filtered sst and slp anomalies is largest in the extratropics and eastern boundaries first mode empirical orthogonal functions eofs explain about half the interdecadal variance in both variables with the tropical warm phase peaking near 1900 1920 1940 1960 and 1980 from 1955 to 1994 eof spatial patterns of interdecadal sst slp and 400m temperature t400 anomalies reveals global reflection symmetries about the equator and global translation symmetries between ocean basins with tropical and eastern ocean ssts warmer cooler than normal covarying with stronger weaker extratropical westerly winds cooler warmer ssts in western central subarctic and subantarctic frontal zones safzs stronger weaker subtropic and subarctic gyre circulations in north pacific and north atlantic oceans and warmer cooler basin and global average ssts of 0 1 c or so evolution of interdecadal variability from the tropical warm phase to the tropical cool phase is propagative also characterized by reflection and translation symmetries during the tropical warm phase cool sst anomalies along western central safzs are advected slowly eastward to the eastern boundaries and subsequently advected poleward and equatorward by the mean gyre circulation the latter conducting extratropical sst anomalies into the tropics a delayed action oscillation model is constructed that yields the quasiperiodicity of interdecadal variability in a manner consistent with these global symmetries in both pattern and evolution

atmosphere ocean thermal coupling in the north atlantic a positive feedback in this article it is examined whether a positive atmosphere ocean feedback is found over the north atlantic through a series of general circulation model gcm experiments a 60 year integration of an atmospheric gcm agcm coupled with a 50 m deep motionless ocean was conducted the coupled run was compared with two uncoupled runs one with prescribed mid latitude climato logical sea surface temperatures ssts and the other with daily ssts derived from the coupled experiment the uncoupled atmosphere forces the slab ocean to obtain sst responses in these runs consistent with previous studies the coupled atmosphere ocean fields show interannual variances larger than those in the uncoupled runs due to reduction in the local thermal damping patterns of maximum atmosphere ocean covariability show the north atlantic oscillation nao and tripole sst anomalies both in the coupled and uncoupled fields indicating a dominant role of the atmosphere in generating the sst anomalies on the other hand analyses of the temporal variability in the three runs suggest an active role of sst anomalies in determining the polarity of the air sea coupled variability longer than the interannual time scale a combined analysis of forcing sst upper air height and the response sst anomalies in the uncoupled run identified that a patch of positive sst anomalies in the mid latitude band around 40 n effectively excite the positive phase of the nao which in turn reinforces the tripole sst anomalies this relationship was further confirmed by a nine member ensemble agcm experiment forced by the relevant sst anomalies since the forcing and response sst anomaly patterns bear some resemblance these results manifest positive feedback at work in the coupled atmosphere ocean patterns the processes responsible for this positive feedback were elaborated by a series of linear model experiments the local thermal adjustment of the atmosphere to the sst anomalies results in increased precipitation over the gulf stream region associated diabatic heating applied to a linear baroclinic model yields a positive height response to the east which highly influences the southern part of the nao this stationary response in turn induces a northward deflection in the storm track activity leading to an eddy vorticity feedback that tends to force the positive phase of the nao

decadal changes in the north pacific oceanic frontal zones as revealed in ship and satellite observations 1 influence of decadal climate changes upon the north pacific subarctic and subtropical oceanic frontal zones np safz and np stfz respectively is documented both satellite and ship measured sea surface temperature sst data reveal the strong confinement of wintertime decadal sst anomalies to those frontal zones the satellite data indicate that the wintertime np safz tended to be narrow and shift northward under the weakened surface westerlies during a warm event in the early 1990s the opposite was the case under the enhanced westerlies during a cool event in the mid 1980s decadal scale modulations in the frontal intensity are also evident in the satellite data a diagnosis based on a simple linearized mixed layer model suggests that the observed anomalous frontal intensity was contributed by the sign reversal of anomalous wind stress curl through the ekman processes and by an anomaly dipole of the net heat flux around the safz these decadal scale modulations in the np safz and their relationships with decadal fluctuations in the local surface westerlies are confirmed in the ship measured data over the 4 recent decades it is found that the safz happens to be a region where the decadal variability in the surface westerlies are unlikely to be masked by the higher frequency fluctuations as it almost coincides with the ridge trough line of the remote atmospheric response to the el nino southern oscillation

role of the gulf stream and kuroshio oyashio systems in large scale atmosphere ocean interaction a review abstract ocean atmosphere interaction over the northern hemisphere western boundary current wbc regions i e the gulf stream kuroshio oyashio and their extensions is reviewed with an emphasis on their role in basin scale climate variability sst anomalies exhibit considerable variance on interannual to decadal time scales in these regions low frequency sst variability is primarily driven by basin scale wind stress curl variability via the oceanic rossby wave adjustment of the gyre scale circulation that modulates the latitude and strength of the wbc related oceanic fronts rectification of the variability by mesoscale eddies reemergence of the anomalies from the preceding winter and tropical remote forcing also play important roles in driving and maintaining the low frequency variability in these regions in the gulf stream region interaction with the deep western boundary current also likely influences the low frequency variability surface heat fluxes damp the low frequency sst anomalies ove

wind driven shifts in the latitude of the kuroshio oyashio extension and generation of sst anomalies on decadal timescales abstract the causes of decadal variations of north pacific sea surface temperatures ssts are examined using a hindcast performed with an ocean general circulation model thermodynamically coupled to an atmospheric mixed layer model ogcm aml model and forced by the time history of observed surface winds the shift in north pacific ocean climate that occurred around 1976 77 is focused on since this is the best observed example available after the 1976 77 shift the aleutian low deepened and moved to the southeast of its previous position this placed anomalous cyclonic flow over the north pacific the sst response as simulated by the ocean model consisted of two components a fast and local part and a delayed and remote part in the central pacific stronger westerlies cool the ocean by increased equatorward ekman drift here the dynamical cooling is sufficiently large that the surface fluxes damp the sst anomaly this ekman response is fast and local and cools the ssts beginning in 1977 and persistin

interdecadal variability over the north pacific in a multi century climate simulation interdecadal variability in the north pacific region is investigated in a 500 y control integration of the hamburg echam lsg coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation model the spectrum is predominantly red but a significant peak with a period of about 18 y is detected in the spectrum of sea surface temperature sst this peak is shown to be associated with an irregular oscillation that involves both the model ocean and atmosphere the sst sea level pressure and geopotential height at 500 hpa all undergo a primarily standing oscillation with an extensive monopole structure centered near the date line the surface anticyclone is situated to the northeast of the warm sst anomaly and there is a small westward tilt with height temporal changes are approximately in phase the anomalous surface heat flux accompanying the warm phase of sst is primarily out of the ocean but is compensated by anomalous warm advection by surface currents allowing the sst anomaly to persist oceanic thermocline anomalies propagate northward in the western pacific and lag the atmosphere indicating a disequilibrium with the atmosphere sub surface thermal advection appears to play an important role a comparison is made between the model s 18 y oscillation and oscillatory components identified in an analysis of the gisst observational sst dataset which have periods of approximately 6 and roughly 30 y

wind forcing of the atlantic thermocline along 32 n at low frequencies abstract the bermuda tide gauge record extends back to the early 1930s that sea level fluctuations there are highly coherent with dynamic height from hydrographic data has two interesting implications first it should contain information about the low frequency circulation of the atlantic furthermore because dynamic height contains information on heat storage it might on the limited timescales accessible in the record also contain clues about climate a simple model of wind forcing of the atlantic from the african coast to bermuda uses the levitus mean density data to estimate the long rossby wave speed as a function of longitude sea level and thermocline variability estimated this way are in remarkably good agreement with observations at periods of more than a few years duration the peak to peak sea level signal is 18 cm which is nearly 25 of the slope across the gulf stream at this latitude the model results suggest that the variability is largest somewhat to the east of bermuda fluctuatio

a hemispheric mechanism for the atlantic multidecadal oscillation abstract the physical processes associated with the 70 yr period climate mode known as the atlantic multidecadal oscillation amo are examined based on analyses of observational data a deterministic mechanism relying on atmosphere ocean sea ice interactions is proposed for the amo variations in the thermohaline circulation are reflected as uniform sea surface temperature anomalies in the north atlantic these anomalies are associated with a hemispheric wavenumber 1 sea level pressure slp structure in the atmosphere that is amplified through atmosphere ocean interactions in the north pacific the slp pattern and its associated wind field affect the sea ice export through fram strait the freshwater balance in the northern north atlantic and consequently the strength of the large scale ocean circulation it generates sea surface temperature anomalies with opposite signs in the north atlantic and completes a negative feedback the authors find that the time scale of the cycle is associated with the

decadal variability in the large scale sea surface height field of the south pacific ocean observations and causes large scale sea surface height ssh changes in the extraequatorial south pacific ocean are investigated using satellite altimetry data of the past 12 yr the decadal ssh signals in the 1990s were dominated by an increasing trend in the 30 50 s band and a decreasing trend in the central south pacific ocean poleward of 50 s in recent years since 2002 there has been a reversal in both of these trends spatially varying low frequency ssh signals are also found in the tropical region of 10 25 s where the decadal ssh trend is negative in the eastern basin but positive in the western basin to clarify the causes for these observed spatially varying ssh signals a 11u2 layer reduced gravity model that includes the wind driven baroclinic rossby wave dynamics and the responses forced by ssh changes along the south american coast was adopted the model hindcasts the spatially varying decadal trends in the midlatitude and the eastern tropical regions well accumulation of the wind forced ssh anomalies along rossby wave characteristics is found to be important for both previously reported long term trends and their reversals in recent years the boundary forcing associated with the time varying ssh signals along the south american coast is crucial for understanding the observed ssh signals of all time scales in the eastern tropical south pacific basin but it has little impact upon the midlatitude interior ssh signals

the reemergence of sst anomalies in the north pacific ocean abstract sea surface temperature sst data and two different upper ocean temperature analyses are used to study the winter to winter recurrence of sst anomalies in the north pacific ocean the ssts recur when temperature anomalies that form in the deep ocean mixed layer in late winter early spring are isolated from the atmosphere in the summer seasonal thermocline and then reemerge at the surface when the mixed layer deepens during the following fall winter this reemergence mechanism is evaluated over the basin by correlating the time series of the leading pattern of ocean temperature anomalies in the summer seasonal thermocline 60 85 m in august september with sst anomalies over the course of the year the results indicate that the dominant large scale sst anomaly pattern that forms in the north pacific during late winter with anomalies of one sign in the central pacific and the opposite sign along the coast of north america is sequestered in the seasonal thermocline in summer and returns to the

simple coupled midlatitude climate models a set of simple analytical models is presented and evaluated for interannual to decadal coupled ocean atmosphere modes at midlatitudes the atmosphere and ocean are each in sverdrup balance at these long timescales the atmosphere s temperature response to heating determines the spatial phase relation between sst and sea level pressure slp anomalies vertical advection balancing heating produces high low slp lying east of warm cold sst anomalies as observed in the antarctic circumpolar wave acw the decadal north pacific mode and the interannual north atlantic mode zonal advection in an atmosphere with a rigid lid produces low slp east of warm sst however if an ad hoc equivalent barotropic atmospheric response is assumed high slp lies east of warm sst relaxation to heating produces behavior like the observed north atlantic decadal pattern with low slp over warm sst meridional advection in the atmosphere cannot produce the observed sst slp patterns the dominant balance in the ocean s temperature equation determines the phase speed of the modes the coupled mode is nondispersive in all models examined here indicating the need for additional processes for modes with an sst slp offset as observed in the acw and north pacific ekman convergence acting as a heat source causes eastward propagation relative to the mean ocean flow sverdrup response to ekman convergence acting on the mean meridional temperature gradient causes westward propagation relative to the mean ocean flow when the ocean temperature adjusts through surface heat flux alone the mode is advected by the mean ocean flow and is damped relaxation to heating in the atmosphere when operating with sverdrup response in the ocean produces the only complete solution presented here that exhibits growth with an e folding timescale of order 100 days this solution appears appropriate for the north atlantic decadal mode in northern hemisphere basins with meridional boundaries the same sets of dynamics create the observed sst slp phase relation an additional factor is the creation of sst anomalies through variations in the western boundary current strengths which are related to the zonally integrated wind stress curl over the whole basin if barotropic and hence fast adjustment is assumed the resulting positive feedback can maintain or strengthen the coupled anomalies in the north pacific and interannual north atlantic modes

interannual to decadal predictability of tropical and north pacific sea surface temperatures abstract a multivariate empirical model is used to show that predictability of the dominant patterns of tropical and north pacific oceanic variability el nino southern oscillation enso and the pacific decadal oscillation pdo is mostly limited to little more than a year despite the presence of spectral peaks on decadal time scales the model used is a linear inverse model lim derived from the observed simultaneous and 1 yr lag correlation statistics of july june averaged sst from the hadley centre global sea ice and sea surface temperature hadisst dataset for the years 1900 2002 the model accurately reproduces the power spectra of the data including interannual and interdecadal spectral peaks that are significant relative to univariate red noise eigenanalysis of the linear dynamical operator yields propagating eigenmodes that correspond to these peaks but have very short decay times and thus limited predictability longer term predictability does exist however due to two stationary eigen

decadal variability of the kuroshio extension observations and an eddy resolving model hindcast abstract low frequency variability of the kuroshio extension ke is studied using observations and a multidecadal 1950 2003 hindcast by a high resolution 0 1 eddy resolving global ocean general circulation model for the earth simulator ofes in both the ofes hindcast and satellite altimeter observations low frequency sea surface height ssh variability in the north pacific is high near the ke front an empirical orthogonal function eof analysis indicates that much of the ssh variability in the western north pacific east of japan is explained by two modes with meridional structures tightly trapped along the ke front the first mode represents a southward shift and to a lesser degree an acceleration of the ke jet associated with the 1976 77 shift in basin scale winds the second mode reflects quasi decadal variations in the intensity of the ke jet both the spatial structure and time series of these modes derived from the hindcast are in close agreement with observations a linear rossby wave

influence of the meridional shifts of the kuroshio and the oyashio extensions on the atmospheric circulation abstract the meridional shifts of the oyashio extension oe and of the kuroshio extension ke as derived from high resolution monthly sea surface temperature sst anomalies in 1982 2008 and historical temperature profiles in 1979 2007 respectively are shown based on lagged regression analysis to significantly influence the large scale atmospheric circulation the signals are independent from the enso teleconnections which were removed by seasonally varying asymmetric regression onto the first three principal components of the tropical pacific sst anomalies the response to the meridional shifts of the oe front is equivalent barotropic and broadly resembles the north pacific oscillation western pacific pattern in a positive phase for a northward frontal displacement the response may reach 35 m at 250 hpa for a typical oe shift a strong sensitivity since the associated sst anomaly is 0 5 k however the amplitude but not the pattern or statistical significance strongly depends on the lag and an

a simple model of the decadal response of the ocean to stochastic wind forcing abstract a simple linear model is used to estimate the decadal response of the extratropical ocean to wind stress forcing assuming a flat bottom a mean state at rest and no dissipation the barotropic fields are governed by a time dependent sverdrup balance the baroclinic ones by the long rossby wave equation the ocean is bounded by a coast in the east and a radiation condition is used in the west at each frequency the baroclinic response consists of a forced response plus a rossby wave generated at the eastern boundary for zonally independent forcing the response propagates westward at twice the rossby phase speed the wind stress is assumed to be stochastic with a white frequency spectrum so the model represents the continuous excitation of the ocean interior by the weather fluctuations the model predicts the shape and level of the frequency spectra of the oceanic pressure field and their variation with longitude and latitude the baroclinic response is spread over a continuum of frequencies

pacific decadal variability paced by rossby basin modes abstracta systematic study is presented of decadal climate variability in the north pacific in particular the hypothesis is addressed that oceanic rossby basin modes are responsible for enhanced energy at decadal and bidecadal time scales to this end a series of statistical analyses are performed on a 500 yr control integration of the community climate system model version 3 ccsm3 in particular a principal oscillation pattern pop analysis is performed to identify modal behavior in the subsurface pressure field it is found that the dominant energy of sea surface temperature sst variability at 25 yr the model equivalent of the pacific decadal oscillation cannot be explained by the resonant excitation of an oceanic basin mode however significant energy in the subsurface pressure field at time scales of 17 and 10 yr appears to be related to internal ocean oscillations however these oscillations lack the characteristics of the classical basin modes and must either be deformed beyond recogni

interdecadal dynamics of the north pacific ocean abstract an isopycnal ocean model forced by ncep ncar reanalysis wind stresses and heat fluxes is used to study the interdecadal variability of the pacific ocean in the 1958 97 period a reasonable agreement is found between the model s modes of variability and those obtained by other researchers from both 100 years of observations and theoretical predictions in agreement with previous observational work decadal and interdecadal timescales have different descriptions and from this study it is suggested that they indeed have different dynamics this study focuses on the dynamics of the ocean s interdecadal variability that is of timescales of about 20 yr the decadal timescale that is 10 yr is briefly outlined and compared with previous studies it is found that atmospheric heat fluxes play a key role in establishing the interdecadal sst pattern in the midlatitudinal north pacific these fluxes would excite a high baroclinic mode igniting a series of events that move around the basin in midlatitu

on the relationship between tropical and north pacific sea surface temperature variations abstract empirical orthogonal function analysis of winter sea surface temperature sst anomalies over the pacific domain 60 n 20 s reveals an el nino southern oscillation enso mode that is linked to the eastern north pacific and a north pacific mode that is linearly independent of enso the north pacific mode exhibits maximum amplitude and variance explained along 40 n west of 170 w ssts in this region have decreased by 1 5 c from 1950 to 1987 the cooling in winter has been associated with a strengthening of the overlying westerly winds

recent bering sea warm and cold events in a 95 year context the meteorology and oceanography of the southeastern bering sea shelf was recently dominated by a multi year warm event 2000 2005 followed by a multi year cold event 2007 2010 we put these recent events into the context of the 95 year air temperature record from st paul island and with concurrent spatial meteorological fields for march 2000 2005 the mean air temperature anomaly at st paul was 2 1 1c above the long term mean and for march 2007 2010 the mean temperature anomaly at st paul was 4 7 1c below the long term mean the only multi year temperature deviations comparable to the first decade of the 2000s are a cold event from 1971 to 1976 followed by a warm event from 1978 to 1983 there was also a short warm event 1935 1937 the temperature transition between warm and cold events in the 1970s and 2000s took two years while there are theoretical arguments for some physical memory processes in the north pacific climate system we cannot rule out that the recent warm and cold events are of a random nature they are rare in the st paul temperature record they are dominated by north pacific wide sea level pressure events rather than local bering sea processes and they are consistent with a red noise model of climate variability the 1970s transition

upper ocean thermal variations in the north pacific during 1970 1991 abstract a newly available extensive compilation of upper ocean temperature profiles was used to study the vertical structure of thermal anomalies between the surface and 400 m depth in the north pacific during 1970 1991 a prominent decade long perturbation in climate occurred during this time period surface waters cooled by 1 c in the central and western north pacific and warmed by about the same amount along the west coast of north america from late 1976 to 1988 comparison with data from coads suggests that the relatively sparse sampling of the subsurface data is adequate for describing the climate anomaly the vertical structure of seasonal thermal anomalies in the central north pacific shows a series of cold pulses beginning in the fall of 1976 and continuing until late 1988 that appear to originate at the surface and descend with time into the main thermocline to at least 400 m depth individual cold events descend rapidly 100 m yr 1 superimposed upon a slower cooling 15 m yr 1 the inter

subduction of decadal north pacific temperature anomalies observations and dynamics abstract observations of oceanic temperature in the upper 400 m reveal decadal signals that propagate in the thermocline along lines of constant potential vorticity from the ventilation region in the central north pacific to approximately 18 n in the western pacific the propagation path and speed are well described by the geostrophic mean circulation and by a model of the ventilated thermocline the approximate southward speed of the thermal signal of 7 mm s 1 yields a transit time of approximately eight years the thermal anomalies appear to be forced by perturbations of the mixed layer heat budget in the subduction region of the central north pacific east of the date line a warm pulse was generated in the central north pacific by a series of mild winters from 1973 to 1976 and reached 18 n around 1982 after 1978 a succession of colder winters initiated a cold anomaly in the central north pacific that propagated along a similar path and with a similar speed as the warm anomaly then arrived in the west

connections between the pacific ocean tropics and midlatitudes on decadal timescales abstract connections between the tropical and midlatitude pacific on decadal timescales are examined using a 137 yr run of a fully coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation model it is shown that the model does a credible job of simulating both enso scale and decadal scale variability and that there are statistically significant correlations between the midlatitudes and tropics on decadal timescales three physical mechanisms linking the regions are examined 1 oceanic advection along isopycnal surfaces from the midlatitude subduction regions to the tropics 2 coastally trapped or kelvin wave propagation between the tropics and midlatitudes and 3 near simultaneous communication between the regions affected by changes in the atmosphere it is found that communication via the atmosphere explains the strongest correlations found in the model further evidence is presented that is consistent with the idea that midlatitude sea surface temperature anomalies drive changes in the trade wind system that a

enso like interdecadal variability 1900 93 a number of recent studies have reported an enso like eof mode in the global sea surface temperature sst field whose time variability is marked by an abrupt change toward a warmer tropical eastern pacific and a colder extratropical central north pacific in 1976 77 the present study compares this pattern with the structure of the interannual variability associated with the enso cycle and documents its time history back to 1900 the analysis is primarily based on the leading eofs of the sst anomaly and anomaly deviation fields in various domains and the associated expansion coefficient or principal component time series which are used to construct global regression maps of sst sea level pressure slp and a number of related variables the use of anomaly deviations i e departures of local sst anomalies from the concurrent global mean sst anomaly reduces the influence of global mean sst trends upon the structure of the eofs and their expansion coefficient time series an important auxiliary time series used in this study is a southern oscillation index based on marine surface observations by means of several different analysis techniques the time variability of the leading eof of the global sst field is separated into two components one identified with the enso cycle related variability on the interannual timescale and the other a linearly independent residual comprising all the interdecadal variability in the record the two components exhibit rather similar spatial signatures in the global sst slp and wind stress fields the sst signature in the residual variability is less equatorially confined in the eastern pacific and it is relatively more prominent over the extratropical north pacific the corresponding slp signature is also stronger over the extratropical north pacific and its counterpart in the cold season 500 mb height field more closely resembles the pna pattern the amplitude time series of the enso like pattern in the residual variability reflects the above mentioned shift in 1976 77 as well as a number of other prominent features including a shift of opposite polarity during the 1940s

a detailed 31 000 year record of climate and vegetation change from the isotope geochemistry of two new zealand speleothems abstract uranium series dating and stable isotope analyses of two speleothems from northwest nelson new zealand record changes in regional climate and local forest extent over the past 31 000 years oxygen isotope variation in these speleothems primarily represents changes in the meteoric waters falling above the caves possibly responding to latitudinal changes in the position of the subtropical front in the tasman sea seven positive excursions can be identified in the oxygen isotope record which coincide with periods of glacier advance known to be sensitive to northward movement of the subtropical front four glacier advances occurred during oxygen isotope stage 2 with the most extreme glacial conditions centered on 19 000 cal yr b p 2 an excursion in the oxygen isotope record from 13 800 to 11 700 cal yr b p provides support for a previously identified new zealand glacier advance at the time of the younger dryas stade but suggests it began slightly before the younger dryas as recorded in greenland ice cores carbon isotope variations in the speleothems record changes in forest productivity closely matching existing paleovegetation records on the basis of vegetation changes stage 2 glacial climate conditions terminated abruptly in central new zealand from 15 700 to 14 200 cal yr b p evidence of continuous speleothem growth at one site suggests that depression of the local treeline was limited to 600 700 m below its present altitude throughout the last 31 000 years

evidence for a wind driven intensification of the kuroshio current extension from the 1970s to the 1980s the spatial and temporal characteristics of oceanic thermal variations in the mixed layer and main thermocline of the midlatitude north pacific are distinctive suggesting different physical origins within the main thermocline 400 m depth the variability is dominated by a westward intensified pattern of decadal scale indicative of enhanced eastward geostrophic flow along the southern flank of the kuroshio current extension during the 1980s relative to the 1970s the authors argue that the decadal scale change in the strength of the kuroshio extension was a result of the dynamical adjustment of the oceanic circulation to a decadal variation in wind stress curl according to sverdrup theory four times daily wind stress fields from the national center for atmospheric research national centers for environmental prediction reanalysis project are used to compute the decadal change in sverdrup transport associated with the 1976 77 climate transition it is shown that the decadal changes in sverdrup transport inferred from the wind stress curl field and in observed geostrophic flow inferred from the upper ocean thermal field are consistent both in terms of spatial pattern and magnitude the decadal change in depth averaged geostrophic transport along the kuroshio extension referenced to 1 km is 11 6 sv similar to the sverdrup transport change 11 5 13 9 sv the decadal scale thermocline variation along the western boundary between 308 and 408n exhibits a lag of approximately 4 5 yr relative to the decadal variation in the basin wide wind stress curl pattern this delay may be indicative of the transient adjustment of the gyre scale circulation to a change in wind stress curl via long baroclinic rossby waves

decadal variability of the subtropical front of the western north pacific in an eddy resolving ocean general circulation model 1 we examined decadal variability of the subtropical front stf of the western north pacific by using a north pacific ocean general circulation model ogcm comparing the results of three simulations with different horizontal resolutions in the long term mean fields the eddy resolving model 10 km was able to simulate the distributions of the stf and the associated subtropical countercurrent stcc between 20 n and 30 n better than either the non eddy resolving model 100 km or the eddy permitting model 20 km because it simulated the kuroshio recirculation gyre more realistically the simulated stf intensity exhibited significant decadal scale variations it was stronger in the late 1970s and weaker in the early 1990s during these two periods the simulated mode waters showed corresponding differences in their potential vorticity minima density and paths we also investigated the relationship between the decadal scale stf variability and atmospheric forcing the results suggest that the decadal scale stf variability can be largely explained by changes in the mode waters formed in the western north pacific and advected to north of the stf by the subtropical gyre in response to a change in surface westerly winds that occurred in the mid 1970s

a joint statistical and dynamical assessment of atmospheric response to north pacific oceanic variability in ccsm3 abstract atmospheric response to north pacific oceanic variability is assessed in community climate system model version 3 ccsm3 using two statistical methods and one dynamical method all methods identify an equivalent barotropic low response to a warmer sea surface temperature sst anomaly in the kuroshio extension region koe during early midwinter while all three methods capture the major features of the response the generalized equilibrium feedback assessment method gefa isolates the impact of koe sst from a complex context and thus makes itself an excellent choice for similar practice

predicting western north pacific ocean climate abstract it is shown that wintertime sea surface temperature anomalies in the confluence region of the kuroshio oyashio currents in the western north pacific can be skillfully predicted at lead times of up to 3 yr the predictions are based on the history of the wind stress over the north pacific and oceanic rossby wave dynamics the predictions may be exploitable in fisheries research and other ecological applications

winter to winter recurrence of sea surface temperature anomalies in the northern hemisphere the spatiotemporal characteristics of the winter to winter recurrence wwr of sea surface temperature anomalies ssta in the northern hemisphere nh are comprehensively studied through lag correlation analysis on this basis the relationships between the ssta wwr and the wwr of the atmospheric circu lation anomalies el nino southern oscillation enso and ssta interdecadal variability are also in vestigated results showthat the ssta wwr occurs over most parts of the north pacific and atlantic oceans but the spatiotemporaldistributionsofthesstawwraredistinctlydifferentinthesetwooceans analysesindicate that the spatiotemporal distribution of the ssta wwr in the north atlantic ocean is consistent with the spatial distribution of the seasonal cycle of its mixed layer depth mld whereas that in the north pacific ocean particularly the recurrence timing cannot be fully explained by the change in the mld between winterandsummerin someregions inaddition theatmospheric circulationanomaliesalsoexhibitthewwr at the mid high latitude of the nh which is mainly located in eastern asia the central north pacific and the north atlantic the sea level pressure anomalies slpa in the central north pacific are essential for the occurrenceofthesstawwrinthisregion moreover thestrongestpositivecorrelationoccurswhentheslpa lead ssta in the central northpacific by 1 month whichsuggeststhat the atmospheric forcingon the ocean may play a dominant role in this region therefore the reemergence mechanism is not the only process influ encing the ssta wwr and the wwr of the atmospheric circulation anomalies may be one of the causes of the ssta wwr in the central north pacific finally the occurrence of the ssta wwr in the nh is closely related to ssta interdecadal variability in the nh but it is linearly independent of enso

decadal shifts of the kuroshio extension jet application of thin jet theory abstractmeridional shifts of the kuroshio extension ke jet on decadal time scales are examined using a 1960 2004 hindcast simulation of an eddy resolving ocean general circulation model for the earth simulator ofes the leading mode of the simulated ke represents the meridional shifts of the jet on decadal time scales with the largest southward shift in the early 1980s associated with the climate regime shift in 1976 77 a result confirmed with subsurface temperature observations the meridional shifts originate east of the date line and propagate westward along the mean jet axis a trajectory inconsistent with the traditionally used linear long rossby waves linearized in cartesian coordinates although the phase speed is comparable to that in the traditional framework the zonal scale of these westward propagation signals is about 4000 km and much larger than their meridional scale to understand the mechanism for the westward propagation of the ke jet shifts the authors consider the limit of a thin

on the predictability of decadal changes in the north pacific the predictability of decadal changes in the north pacific is investigated with an ocean general circulation model forced by simplified and realistic atmospheric conditions first the model is forced by a spatially fixed wind stress anomaly pattern characteristic for decadal north pacific climate variations the time evolution of the wind stress anomaly is chosen to be sinusoidal with a period of 20 years in this experiment different physical processes are found to be important for the decadal variations baroclinic rossby waves dominate the response they move westward and lead to an adjustment of the subtropical and subpolar gyre circulations in such a way that anomalous temperatures in the central north pacific develop as a delayed response to the preceding wind stress anomalies this delayed response provides not only a negative feedback but also bears the potential for long term predictions of upper ocean temperature changes in the central north pacific it is shown by additional experiments that once these rossby waves have been excited decadal changes of the upper ocean temperatures in the central north pacific evolve without any further anomalous atmospheric forcing in the second part the model is forced by surface heat flux and wind stress observations for the period 1949 1993 it is shown that the same physical processes which were found to be important in the simplified experiments also govern the evolution of the upper ocean in this more realistic simulation the 1976 77 cooling can be mainly attributed to anomalously strong horizontal advection due to the delayed response to persistent wind stress curl anomalies in the early 1970s rather than local anomalous atmospheric forcing this decadal change could have been predicted some years in advance the subsequent warming in the late 1980s however cannot be mainly explained by advection in this case local anomalous atmospheric forcing needs to be considered

assessing the importance of prominent warm sst anomalies over the midlatitude north pacific in forcing large scale atmospheric anomalies during 2011 summer and autumn abstractsets of atmospheric general circulation model agcm experiments are conducted to assess the importance of prominent positive anomalies in sea surface temperature sst observed over the midlatitude north pacific in forcing a persistent basin scale anticyclonic circulation anomaly and its downstream influence in 2011 summer and autumn the anticyclonic anomaly observed in october is well reproduced as a robust response of an agcm forced only with the warm sst anomaly associated with the poleward shifted oceanic frontal zone in the midlatitude pacific the equivalent barotropic anticyclonic anomaly over the north pacific is maintained under strong transient eddy feedback forcing associated with the poleward deflected storm track as the downstream influence of the anomaly abnormal warmth and dryness observed over the northern united states and southern canada in october are also reproduced to some extent the corresponding agcm response over the north pacific to the tropical sst anomalies is simil

interdecadal variability of the pacific ocean model response to observed heat flux and wind stress anomalies variability of the pacific ocean is examined in numerical simulations with an ocean general circulation model forced by observed anomalies of surface heat flux wind stress and turbulent kinetic energy tke over the period 1970 88 the model captures the 1976 77 winter time climate shift in sea surface temperature as well as its monthly seasonal and longer term variability as evidenced in regional time series and empirical orthogonal function analyses examination of the surface mixed layer heat budget reveals that the 1976 77 shift was caused by a unique concurrance of sustained heat flux input anomalies and very strong horizontal advection anomalies during a multi month period preceding the shift in both the central pacific region where cooling occurred and the california coastal region where warming occurred in the central pacific the warm conditions preceding and the cold conditions following the shift tend to be maintained by anomalous vertical mixing due to increases in the atmospheric momentum flux tke input into the mixed layer which deepens in the model after the shift from the early 1970s to the late 1970s and 1980s since the ocean model does not contain feedback to the atmosphere and it succeeds in capturing the major features of the 1976 77 shift it appears that the midlatitude part of the shift was driven by the atmosphere although effects of midlatitude ocean atmosphere feedback are still possible the surface mixed layer heat budget also reveals that in the central pacific the effects of heat flux input and vertical mixing anomalies are comparable in amplitude while horizontal advection anomalies are roughly half that size in the california coastal region in contrast where wind variability is much weaker than in the central pacific horizontal advection and vertical mixing effects on the mixed layer heat budget are only one quarter the size of typical heat flux input anomalies

ventilation of the north atlantic and north pacific subduction versus obduction abstract ventilation in the north atlantic and north pacific is examined by analyzing the levitus climatological data and the hellerman and rosenstein wind stress data ventilation between the permanent pycnocline and the overlying seasonal pycnocline and mixed layer consists of two physical processes subduction and obduction subduction takes place mainly in the subtropical basin where surface water is irreversibly transferred into the permanent pycnocline below obduction takes place in the subpolar basin where water from the permanent pycnocline is irreversibly transferred into the mixed layer above veatilation in the north atlantic and north pacific can be clarified into four physically different regions the subductive region the obductive region the ambiductive region where both subduction and obduction take place and the insulated region where neither subduction nor obduction occurs although the total subduction rates in these two oceans are comparable the total obduction rates are considera

recent warming in the western north pacific in relation to rapid changes in the atmospheric circulation of the siberian high and aleutian low systems abstracton the basis of a new east asian winter monsoon eawm index and by analyzing the relationship between sea surface temperature sst anomalies and different atmospheric and oceanic factors in winter this study investigates the causes of the recent unusual warming in the western north pacific ocean analyses presented here emphasize the dual contribution from the atmosphere and ocean to the local sst variability with the relative importance of each contributor varying with the period and place during the period 1970 89 the eawm controlled mostly by the siberian high is predominantly responsible for the sst variability in most of the western north pacific whereas in the period 1990 2005 ocean dynamics become increasingly important in most places or even dominant in the kuroshio oyasio extension koe region the delayed response of the koe sst to basinwide wind stress curl forcing via rossby waves is epoch dependent and is significant at lags of 1 3 and 4 yr before 1990 but only at 1 yr aft

summertime evolution of decadal sea surface temperature anomalies in the midlatitude north pacific abstract to clarify the summertime evolution of decadal sea surface temperature sst anomalies and related physical processes in the midlatitudes of the north pacific numerical solutions of a three dimensional bulk mixed layer model are analyzed focusing on the contribution of the net shortwave radiative forcing at the sea surface a quantitative heat budget analysis for the ocean mixed layer relating to late 1980s decadal sst change reveals that the decadal sst anomalies decay from late spring to early summer over the entire midlatitudes of the north pacific this quasi seasonal decay of the decadal sst anomalies is controlled by an anomalous local thermal damping i e anomalous surface heat fluxes from midsummer to early autumn the anomalous net shortwave radiation flux associated with a meridional shift of the storm track acts to induce strong seasonal damping of the decadal sst anomaly in the northern kuroshio oyashio extension region in contrast in the north of the subtropical frontal region

a mechanism for the recurrence of wintertime midlatitude sst anomalies abstract in the early 1970s namias and born speculated that ocean temperature anomalies created over the deep mixed layer in winter could be preserved in the summer thermocline and reappear at the surface in the following fall or winter this hypothesis is examined using upper ocean temperature observations and simulations with a mixed layer model the data were collected at six ocean weather stations in the north atlantic and north pacific concurrent and lead lag correlations are used to investigate temperature variations associated with the seasonal cycle in both the observations and the model simulations concurrent correlations between the surface and subsurface temperature anomalies in both the data and the model indicate that the penetration of temperature anomalies into the ocean is closely tied to the seasonal cycle in mixed layer depth high correlations extend to relatively deep shallow depths in winter summer lead lag correlations in both the data and the model at some of the stations

micromechanics of asperity rupture during laboratory stick slip experiments 1 acoustic emissions and tremor like signals are widely recorded in laboratory experiments we are able to isolate the physical origins of these signals using high resolution nanoseismic analysis the use of a picometer sensitive wide band sensor array permits us to determine force time functions and focal mechanisms for discrete events found amid the noise of friction similar to how low frequency earthquakes are found buried within tremor we interpret these localized events to be the rupture of m sized contacts known as asperities we performed stick slip experiments on plastic plastic and rock rock interfaces and found a systematic difference between the nano earthquakes the rock interface produces very rapid 1 s implosive forces indicative of brittle failure and fault gouge formation while rupture on the plastic interface releases only shear force and produces a nano quake more similar to earthquakes commonly recorded in the field the difference between the mechanisms is attributed to the vast differences in the hardness and melting temperatures of the two materials which affect the distribution of asperities as well as their failure behavior with proper scaling the strong link between material properties and laboratory earthquakes will aid in our understanding of fault mechanics and the generation of earthquakes and tectonic tremor

a theory of interdecadal climate variability of the north pacific ocean atmosphere system abstract a linear coupled model for the atmosphere upper ocean system is proposed to highlight the mechanisms of decadal to interdecadal climate variability in the north pacific in this model wind stress anomalies over the north pacific are related to anomalies in the meridional temperature gradient of the upper ocean the latter depends upon air sea thermodynamical feedbacks and meridional heat transport by upper ocean currents slow adjustment of the oceanic gyre circulation to the change in wind stress is accomplished by the forced baroclinic oceanic rossby waves which carry out the meridional heat transport uncoupled ocean dynamic adjustment can produce a weak decadal to interdecadal peak in the power spectrum of the meridional transport under temporal white noise wind stress forcing with organized spatial structure coupled dynamics produce a basin scale interdecadal oscillatory mode this mode arises from the dynamic coupling and the memory of the system residing in the slow gyre circulation ad

evolution of interdecadal variability in sea level pressure sea surface temperature and upper ocean temperature over the pacific ocean abstract interdecadal variability in sea level pressure slp and sea surface temperature sst anomalies in the pacific ocean was quasiperiodic from 1900 91 the coherent variability of this phenomenon is investigated using gridded observational data from the turn of the century sst and slp and of upper ocean heat content hs from the recent two and a half decades the nominal cycle in atmosphere ocean variables is roughly two decades long but growth and decay can happen on a shorter timescale e g half a cycle or so the authors divide the full cycle into four phases an onset phase during which a weak slp anomaly pattern off japan takes approximately 2 4 yr to expand eastward leads to large slp anomalies in the region of the aleutian low a quasi stationary growth phase with the midlatitude slp anomaly pattern in the eastern ocean intensifies over a 2 4 yr period the persistent slp anomalies evolve in concert with large sst and hs anomalies of the same polarity located to the south sout

seasonality of decadal sea surface temperature anomalies in the northwestern pacific abstract the seasonality of the decadal sea surface temperature sst anomalies and the related physical processes in the northwestern pacific were investigated using a three dimensional bulk mixed layer model in the kuroshio oyashio extension koe region the strongest decadal sst anomaly was observed during december february while that of the central north pacific occurred during february april from an examination of the seasonal heat budget of the ocean mixed layer it was revealed that the seasonal scale enhancement of the decadal sst anomaly in the koe region was controlled by horizontal ekman temperature transport in early winter and by vertical entrainment in autumn the temperature transport by the geostrophic current made only a slight contribution to the seasonal variation of the decadal sst anomaly despite controlling the upper ocean thermal conditions on decadal time scales through the slow rossby wave adjustment to the wind stress curl when averaging over the entire koe region the cont