observing earthquakes triggered in the near field by dynamic deformations we examine the hypothesis that dynamic deformations associated with seismic waves trigger earthquakes in many tectonic environments our analysis focuses on seismicity at close range within the aftershock zone complementing published studies of long range triggering our results suggest that dynamic triggering is not confined to remote distances or to geothermal and volcanic regions long unilaterally propagating ruptures may focus radiated dynamic deformations in the propagation direction therefore we expect seismicity triggered dynamically by a directive rupture to occur asymmetrically with a majority of triggered earthquakes in the direction of rupture propagation bilaterally propagating ruptures also may be directive and we propose simple criteria for assessing their directivity we compare the inferred rupture direction and observed seismicity rate change following 15 earthquakes m 5 7 to m 8 1 that occurred in california and idaho in the united states the gulf of aqaba syria guatemala china new guinea turkey japan mexico and antarctica nine of these mainshocks had clearly directive unilateral ruptures of these nine seven apparently induced an asymmetric increase in seismicity rate that correlates with the rupture direction the two exceptions include an earthquake preceded by a comparable magnitude event on a conjugate fault and another for which data limitations prohibited conclusive results similar but weaker correlations were found for the bilaterally rupturing earthquakes we studied although the static stress change also may trigger seismicity it and the seismicity it triggers are expected to be similarly asymmetric only if the final slip is skewed toward the rupture terminus for several of the directive earthquakes we suggest that the seismicity rate change correlates better with the dynamic stress field than the static stress change manuscript received 1 march 2002

when and where the aftershock activity was depressed contrasting decay patterns of the proximate large earthquakes in southern california 1 seismic quiescence has attracted attention as a possible precursor to a large earthquake however sensitive detection of quiescence requires accurate modeling of normal aftershock activity we apply the epidemic type aftershock sequence etas model that is a natural extension of the modified omori formula for aftershock decay allowing further clusters secondary aftershocks within an aftershock sequence the hector mine aftershock activity has been normal relative to the decay predicted by the etas model during the 14 months of available data in contrast although the aftershock sequence of the 1992 landers earthquake m 7 3 including the 1992 big bear earthquake m 6 4 and its aftershocks fits very well to the etas up until about 6 months after the main shock the activity showed clear lowering relative to the modeled rate relative quiescence and lasted nearly 7 years leading up to the hector mine earthquake m 7 1 in 1999 specifically the relative quiescence occurred only in the shallow aftershock activity down to depths of 5 6 km the sequence of deeper events showed clear normal aftershock activity well fitted to the etas throughout the whole period we argue several physical explanations for these results among them we strongly suspect aseismic slips within the hector mine rupture source that could inhibit the crustal relaxation process within shadow zones of the coulomb s failure stress change furthermore the aftershock activity of the 1992 joshua tree earthquake m 6 1 sharply lowered in the same day of the main shock which can be explained by a similar scenario

the 2007 m5 4 alum rock california earthquake implications for future earthquakes on the central and southern calaveras fault 1 the similarity of seismograms recorded by two seismic stations demonstrate that the 31 october 2007 moment magnitude m5 4 alum rock earthquake is a repeat of a 1955 ml5 5 earthquake both occurred on oppenheimer et al s 1990 zone v stuck patch on the central calaveras fault providing new support for their model of calaveras fault earthquake activity we suggest that zone v fails only in a family of recurring m 5 4 5 5 earthquakes the 1955 and 2007 earthquakes are the penultimate and ultimate zone v events earthquakes in 1891 and 1864 are possible earlier zone v events the next zone v event is not expected in the next few decades assuming a time dependent recurrence model the mean forecast date is 2064 2035 2104 95 confidence range we further suggest that zones i ii iii and iv fail in recurring m 5 1 5 3 m 5 6 5 8 m 6 1 6 3 and m 4 9 5 0 earthquakes respectively if our earthquake recurrence model is correct the next zone i event is overdue and could occur anytime and m5 6 earthquakes should not occur on zones ii iii and iv before 2014 2012 and 2026 respectively we cannot rule out the possibility that zone vi which lies at the southern end of the mission seismic trend where the southern hayward and central calaveras faults appear to connect at depth fails aseismically or in large events on the southern hayward fault such as last occurred in 1868 or in large events on the adjoining northern calaveras fault segment

aftershock triggering by complete coulomb stress changes 1 we examine the correlation between seismicity rate change following the 1992 m7 3 landers california earthquake and characteristics of the complete coulomb failure stress cfs changes cfs t that this earthquake generated at close distances the time varying dynamic portion of the stress change depends on how the rupture develops temporally and spatially and arises from radiated seismic waves and from permanent coseismic fault displacement the permanent static portion cfs depends only on the final coseismic displacement cfs diminishes much more rapidly with distance than the transient dynamic stress changes a common interpretation of the strong correlation between cfs and aftershocks is that load changes can advance or delay failure stress changes may also promote failure by physically altering properties of the fault or its environs because it is transient cfs t can alter the failure rate only by the latter means we calculate both cfs and the maximum positive value of cfs t peak cfs t using a reflectivity program input parameters are constrained by modeling landers displacement seismograms we quantify the correlation between maps of seismicity rate changes and maps of modeled cfs and peak cfs t and find agreement for both models however rupture directivity which does not affect cfs creates larger peak cfs t values northwest of the main shock this asymmetry is also observed in seismicity rate changes but not in cfs this result implies that dynamic stress changes are as effective as static stress changes in triggering aftershocks and may trigger earthquakes long after the waves have passed

change in the probability for earthquakes in southern california due to the landers magnitude 7 3 earthquake the landers earthquake in june 1992 redistributed stress in southern california shutting off the production of small earthquakes in some regions while increasing the seismicity in neighboring regions up to the present this earthquake also changed the ratio of small to large events in favor of more small earthquakes within about 100 kilometers of the epicenter this implies that the probabilistic estimate for future earthquakes in southern california changed because of the landers earthquake the location of the strongest increase in probability for large earthquakes in southern california was the volume that subsequently produced the largest slip in the magnitude 7 1 hector mine earthquake of october 1999

stress sensitivity of fault seismicity a comparison between limited offset oblique and major strike slip faults we present a new three dimensional inventory of the southern san francisco bay area faults and use it to calculate stress applied principally by the 1989 m 7 1 loma prieta earthquake and to compare fault seismicity rates before and after 1989 the major high angle right lateral faults exhibit a different response to the stress change than do minor oblique right lateral thrust faults seismicity on oblique slip faults in the southern santa clara valley thrust belt increased where the faults were unclamped the strong dependence of seismicity change on normal stress change implies a high coefficient of static friction in contrast we observe that faults with significant offset 50 100 km behave differently microseismicity on the hayward fault diminished where right lateral shear stress was reduced and where it was unclamped by the loma prieta earthquake we observe a similar response on the san andreas fault zone in southern california after the landers earthquake sequence additionally the offshore san gregorio fault shows a seismicity rate increase where right lateral oblique shear stress was increased by the loma prieta earthquake despite also being clamped by it these responses are consistent with either a low coefficient of static friction or high pore fluid pressures within the fault zones we can explain the different behavior of the two styles of faults if those with large cumulative offset become impermeable through gouge buildup coseismically pressurized pore fluids could be trapped and negate imposed normal stress changes whereas in more limited offset faults fluids could rapidly escape the difference in behavior between minor and major faults may explain why frictional failure criteria that apply intermediate coefficients of static friction can be effective in describing the broad distributions of aftershocks that follow large earthquakes since many of these events occur both inside and outside major fault zones

holocene oolitic marine sand complexes of the bahamas abstract although the general factors influencing the occurrence and distribution of oolitic systems are well known details of their landscape scale patterns and formative processes are less systematically explored by reviewing published studies and presenting new data and insights this review systematically examines a suite of holocene systems from the bahamas in which patterns and processes are characterized and explicitly linked with the goal of providing more realistic and accurate models for variability heterogeneity and predictability in these systems and their ancient analogs sedimentological geomorphic and hydrodynamical data document that each ooid shoal is unique in detail yet shoals share common elements within bar forms systematic trends in grain size type and sorting are related to spatial and temporal variability in wave tide and current energy these trends are driven by connections among sedimentology hydrodynamics and geomorphic forms as they shape and concomitantly are shaped by each other similarly due to feedbacks a limited number of bar forms occur among shoals including tidal sand ridges parabolic bars transverse shoulder bars tidal deltas and sand flats the dominant bar form broadly corresponds with flow velocities within and among shoals among bahamian tidal shoals the mean grain size of ooids maximum bar heights and the width of the oolitic facies belts are all positively correlated collectively these results illustrate the mode and magnitude of variability in shapes orientations and sedimentology of holocene oolitic bodies interpreted to be driven by self organization and autogenic processes these perspectives provide testable qualitative and quantitative insights that can be used to understand and predict the character of ancient analogs

shumagin seismic gap alaska peninsula history of great earthquakes tectonic setting and evidence for high seismic potential the shumagin seismic gap a segment of the plate boundary along the eastern aleutian arc has not ruptured during a great earthquake since at least 1899 1903 because at least 77 years have elapsed since the shumagin gap last ruptured in a great earthquake and repeat times for the 1938 rupture zone and part of the shumagin gap are estimated to be 50 to 90 years a high probability exists for a great earthquake to occur within the shumagin gap during the next one to two decades reconsideration of the rupture zones of the aleutian earthquakes of 1938 1946 and 1948 suggests that those events did not break the interplate boundary beneath the shumagin islands thus the shumagin seismic gap extends from the western end of the 1938 rupture zone to the eastern end of that of 1946 these boundaries also coincide with transverse structural features at least the eastern half of the shumagin gap broke in great earthquakes in 1788 and 1847 and possibly in 1898 1903 the shumagin gap is probably not the result of aseismic slip rather plate motion is accommodated there seismically and episodically and can be expected to produce large earthquakes in the future although there is no definitive evidence of long term precursors of a possible future earthquake several observations suggest that the shumagin gap is in an advanced stage of the earthquake cycle both teleseismic and local network data indicate a near absence of seismic activity m 2 above a depth of 30 km along the main thrust zone within the gap this is in strong contrast to adjacent portions of the arc where seismic activity is scattered across most of the main thrust zone two earthquakes with high stress drops 600 900 bars which occurred at the base of the main thrust zone may indicate the accumulation of a considerable amount of strain energy within the gap a possible seismic gap at the eastern end of the aftershock zone of the aleutian earthquake of 1957 has been identified near unalaska island an earthquake that nucleates in the shumagin gap could also rupture the possible unalaska gap to the west the 1938 aftershock zone to the east or both with resultant magnitude up to mw 9 0 alternatively the shumagin gap alone or in one of the above combinations could rupture in a series of very large earthquakes instead of a single great shock past alaska aleutian earthquakes including those of 1788 1938 1946 1957 1964 and 1965 have generated very large tsunamis future large earthquakes in the shumagin islands region could generate wave heights of several tens of meters along shorelines near the rupture areas the shumagin gap is one of two major gaps along the united states portion of the alaska aleutian plate boundary and is one of the few areas in the united states where processes leading to a great earthquake are likely to be observed within a reasonable span of time

empirical green s function study of the january 17 1994 northridge california earthquake the january 17 1994 northridge main shock was analyzed using an empirical green s function approach to estimate the spatial and temporal distribution of fault slip far field source time functions obtained from seismograms recorded by the berkeley digital seismic network bdsn and terrascope stations reveal the distributed nature of the source and the presence of a second large subevent the location of the fault beneath the san fernando valley as well as the updip directivity of the rupture contributed to the locally heavy damage due to this earthquake

large scale carbonate platform development of cay sal bank bahamas and implications for associated reef geomorphology abstract the bahama archipelago consists of an arcuate chain of carbonate platforms average water depths on the platform tops such as the great bahama bank gbb are typically 10 m or less with coral reef rimmed margins thick sediment accumulations and the frequent occurrence of islands there are however exceptions for example cay sal bank csb a little studied detached bahamian carbonate platform with depths ranging from 30 to 7 m is only slightly deeper than the gbb but devoid of islands lacks platform margin coral reefs and holds little sediment on the platform top the platform is incipiently drowned csb is interesting as it is conspicuously larger 6000 sq km than other incipiently drowned platforms in the region such as serranilla bank 1100 sq km and the cat island platform 1500 sq km field and remote sensing data are assembled to provide insight into the sedimentology and geomorphology of the csb the influence of ocean climate regional hydrodynamics and holocene flooding history are investigated to understand why platform margin coral reef growth on csb has been unable to keep pace with holocene sea level rise a decade of regional sea surface temperature data for the bahamas report csb to be situated in the same ocean climate regime as gbb temperature cannot explain the platform s different morphologies the florida current has been evoked as a possible reason for the immature development of platform top processes on the csb but numeric modeling suggests its influence to be restricted to the deep flanks of the bank further sediment distribution on csb including infill patterns of karst depressions suggest trade winds easterlies to drive platform top hydrodynamics by assembling a satellite derived bathymetry map it can be shown that csb flooded earlier and at relatively higher rates of holocene sea level rise than its neighboring platforms flooding history is identified as the most feasible explanation for the atypical morphology of the csb by contrasting the present day morphology of the csb and the gbb the work emphasizes how subtle differences in relative sea level history can influence the growth of platform margin coral reefs features that in turn can conspire to set even closely neighboring carbonate platforms on divergent paths with regard to the development of marine landforms this insight is relevant to interpreting the morphological diversity of carbonate platforms in the modern ocean and in the rock record

seismic activity of the san francisco bay region moment magnitude m with objective confidence level uncertainties are estimated for felt san francisco bay region earthquakes using bakun and went worth s 1997 analysis strategy for seismic intensity observations the frequency magnitude distribution is well described for m 5 5 events since 1850 by a gutenberg richter relation with a b value of 0 90 the seismic moment rate m yr since 1836 is 2 68 1018 n m yr 95 confidence range 1 29 1018 n m yr to 4 07 1018 n m yr the seismic moment rate since 1850 is nearly the same m yr in the 56 years before 1906 is about 10 times that in the 70 years after 1906 in contrast m yr since 1977 is about equal that in the 56 years before 1906 80 1 14 of the plate motion moment accumulation rate is available for release in earthquakes the historical m yr and the portion of the plate motion moment accumulation rate available for release in earthquakes are used in a seismic cycle model to estimate the rate of seismic activity in the twenty first century high and low rates of future seismic activity are both permissible given the range of possible seismic cycle recurrence times t and the uncertainties in the historical m and in the percentage of plate motion available for release in earthquakes if the historical seismic moment rate is not greater than the estimated 2 68 1018 n m yr and the percentage of the plate motion moment accumulation available for release in earthquakes is not less than the estimated 80 then for all t the rate of seismic moment release from now until the next 1906 sized shock will be comparable to the rate from 1836 to 1905 when m 6 1 2 shocks occurred every 15 to 20 years

seismicity of california s north coast at least three moment magnitude m 7 earthquakes occurred along california9s north coast in the second half of the nineteenth century the m 7 3 earthquake on 23 november 1873 occurred near the california oregon coast and likely was located on the cascadia subduction zone or within the north american plate the m 7 0 earthquake on 9 may 1878 was located about 75 km offshore near the mendocino fault the surface wave magnitude m s 7 0 earthquake on 16 april 1899 was located about 150 km offshore within the gorda plate there were at least three m 7 north coast earthquakes in the 35 years before 1906 two m 7 earthquakes in the 20 years after 1906 no m 7 earthquakes from 1923 until 1980 and four m 7 earthquakes since 1980 the relative seismic quiescence after 1906 for m 7 earthquakes along california9s north coast mimics the post 1906 seismic quiescence in the san francisco bay area for m 6 earthquakes the post 1906 relative quiescence did not extend to lower magnitudes in either area the 18 april 1906 earthquake apparently influenced the rate of occurrence of m 7 north coast earthquakes as it apparently influenced the rate of m 6 earthquakes in the san francisco bay area the relative seismic quiescence along the california north coast region after 1906 should be taken into account when evaluating seismic hazards in northwest california

secondary aftershocks and their importance for aftershock forecasting the potential locations of aftershocks which can be large and damaging are often forecast by calculating where the mainshock increased stress we find however that the mainshock induced stress field is often rapidly altered by aftershock induced stresses we find that the percentage of aftershocks that are secondary aftershocks or aftershocks triggered by previous aftershocks increases with time after the mainshock if we only consider aftershock sequences in which all aftershocks are smaller than the mainshock the percentage of aftershocks that are secondary also increases with mainshock magnitude using the california earthquake catalog and monte carlo trials we estimate that on average more than 50 of aftershocks produced 8 or more days after m 5 mainshocks and more than 50 of all aftershocks produced by m 7 mainshocks that have aftershock sequences lasting at least 15 days are triggered by previous aftershocks these results suggest that previous aftershock times and locations may be important predictors for new aftershocks we find that for four large aftershock sequences in california an updated forecast method using previous aftershock data and neglecting mainshock induced stress changes can outperform forecasts made by calculating the static coulomb stress change induced solely by the mainshock manuscript received 20 november 2002

triggering of seismicity at short timescales following californian earthquakes 1 a method for measuring seismicity rate changes caused by the occurrence of major earthquakes in the surrounding crust is proposed it is based on a nonstationary poisson modeling of earthquake activity an estimate of the seismicity rate change and a probability measure of seismicity triggering following a large shock are derived and the removal of the influence of independent aftershock sequences of other nearby previous earthquakes is attempted without using more traditional declustering techniques the seismicity rate change estimator is corrected for its natural bias in favor of positive changes at short timescales that has so far strongly hindered measures of seismicity quiescences three californian earthquakes are examined using this method the 1989 m7 1 loma prieta the 1992 m7 3 landers and the 1994 m6 7 northridge earthquakes positive triggering is very commonly observed as expected but quiescence is however more seldomly obtained for timescales up to 100 days after the main shock this relative absence of quiescence as compared to typical predictions of coulomb modeling for example is also independently observed through direct correlation analyses of californian seismicity the possibility that the stresses caused by the main shock are spatially highly variable may explain these observations

response of the san andreas fault to the 1983 coalinga nunez earthquakes an application of interaction based probabilities for parkfield 1 the parkfield cholame section of the san andreas fault site of an unfulfilled earthquake forecast in 1985 is the best monitored section of the world s most closely watched fault in 1983 the m 6 5 coalinga and m 6 0 nunez events struck 25 km northeast of parkfield seismicity rates climbed for 18 months along the creeping section of the san andreas north of parkfield and dropped for 6 years along the locked section to the south right lateral creep also slowed or reversed from parkfield south here we calculate that the coalinga sequence increased the shear and coulomb stress on the creeping section causing the rate of small shocks to rise until the added stress was shed by additional slip however the 1983 events decreased the shear and coulomb stress on the parkfield segment causing surface creep and seismicity rates to drop we use these observations to cast the likelihood of a parkfield earthquake into an interaction based probability which includes both the renewal of stress following the 1966 parkfield earthquake and the stress transfer from the 1983 coalinga events we calculate that the 1983 shocks dropped the 10 year probability of a m 6 parkfield earthquake by 22 from 54 22 to 42 23 and that the probability did not recover until about 1991 when seismicity and creep resumed our analysis may thus explain why the parkfield earthquake did not strike in the 1980s but not why it was absent in the 1990s we calculate a 58 17 probability of a m 6 parkfield earthquake during 2001 2011 index terms 7223 seismology seismic hazard assessment and prediction 7230 seismology seismicity and seismotectonics 7260 seismology theory and modeling keywords coalinga earthquake parkfield stress change earthquake probability seismicity rate

aftershocks and triggered events of the great 1906 california earthquake the san andreas fault is the longest fault in california and one of the longest strike slip faults in the world yet little is known about the aftershocks following the most recent great event on the san andreas the m w 7 8 san francisco earthquake on 18 april 1906 we conducted a study to locate and to estimate magnitudes for the largest aftershocks and triggered events of this earthquake we examined existing catalogs and historical documents for the period april 1906 to december 1907 compiling data on the first 20 months of the aftershock sequence we grouped felt reports temporally and assigned modified mercalli intensities for the larger events based on the descriptions judged to be the most reliable for onshore and near shore events a grid search algorithm derived from empirical analysis of modern earthquakes was used to find the epicentral location and magnitude most consistent with the assigned intensities for one event identified as far offshore the event s intensity distribution was compared with those of modern events in order to constrain the event s location and magnitude the largest aftershock within the study period an m 6 7 event occurred 100 km west of eureka on 23 april 1906 although not within our study period another m 6 7 aftershock occurred near cape mendocino on 28 october 1909 other significant aftershocks included an m 5 6 event near san juan bautista on 17 may 1906 and an m 6 3 event near shelter cove on 11 august 1907 an m 4 9 aftershock occurred on the creeping segment of the san andreas fault southeast of the mainshock rupture on 6 july 1906 the 1906 san francisco earthquake also triggered events in southern california including separate events in or near the imperial valley the pomona valley and santa monica bay in western nevada in southern central oregon and in western arizona all within 2 days of the mainshock of these triggered events the largest were an m 6 1 earthquake near brawley and an m 5 0 event under or near santa monica bay 11 3 and 31 3 hr after the san francisco mainshock respectively the western arizona event is inferred to have been triggered dynamically in general the largest aftershocks occurred at the ends of the 1906 rupture or away from the rupture entirely very few significant aftershocks occurred along the mainshock rupture itself the total number of large aftershocks was less than predicted by a generic model based on typical california mainshock aftershock statistics and the 1906 sequence appears to have decayed more slowly than average california sequences similarities can be drawn between the 1906 aftershock sequence and that of the 1857 m w 7 9 san andreas fault earthquake

a hypothesis for delayed dynamic earthquake triggering 1 it s uncertain whether more near field earthquakes are triggered by static or dynamic stress changes this ratio matters because static earthquake interactions are increasingly incorporated into probabilistic forecasts recent studies were unable to demonstrate all predictions from the static stress change hypothesis particularly seismicity rate reductions however current dynamic stress change hypotheses do not explain delayed earthquake triggering and omori s law here i show numerically that if seismic waves can alter some frictional contacts in neighboring fault zones then dynamic triggering might cause delayed triggering and an omori law response the hypothesis depends on faults following a rate state friction law and on seismic waves changing the mean critical slip distance dc at nucleation zones

san andreas fault zone california m 5 5 earthquake history the san andreas fault zone has been a very significant source of major california earthquakes from 1812 to 1906 it generated four major earthquakes of m 7 or larger in two pairs on two major portions of the fault a pair of major earthquakes occurred on the central to southern region where the 1857 faulting overlapped the 1812 earthquake faulting a pair of major earthquakes occurred on the northern region where the 1906 faulting overlapped the 1838 earthquake faulting also earthquakes of m 7 occurred in the san francisco bay area on the hayward fault in 1868 and the santa cruz mountains near loma prieta in 1989 and on the imperial fault near the border with mexico in 1940 the 1838 earthquake s damage effects throughout the bay area from san francisco to santa clara valley and monterey were unequalled by any historical earthquake other than the 1906 event this and numerous strong possible aftershocks during the following 3 years in the san juan bautista vicinity suggest 1838 faulting from san francisco to san juan bautista cycles of seismicity and quiescence were associated with the bay area earthquakes of 1868 1906 and 1989 the 1868 earthquake on the hayward fault was preceded by 12 earthquakes of m 5 5 from 1855 to 1866 within 60 km of the hayward fault and was followed by 13 quiet years the 1906 san andreas fault event was preceded from 1881 to 1903 by 18 earthquakes of m 5 5 and was followed by quiescence with only three earthquakes of m 5 5 until 1954 the bay area has been seismically quiet at the m 5 5 level since the 1989 loma prieta earthquake and its 1990 aftershocks which contrasts with the 10 years before 1989 when five m 5 5 6 2 events occurred the loma prieta earthquake is of similar magnitude to the 1868 hayward event and could be followed by a similarly short quiet period the 1857 earthquake had immediate foreshocks in the lonoak bitterwater region 50 km northwest of parkfield in the northern end zone of the 1857 rupture extending southeast from bitterwater 70 km to parkfield the rate of seismic moment release has decreased with time since 1857 this may reflect the decay with time of the stress loading due to the 9 m 1857 fault displacements 80 km southeast of parkfield and explain why the predicted earthquake which was based on the assumption of regular recurrence of parkfield earthquakes has not yet occurred the extent of the 1812 earthquake fault rupture is not well defined jacoby et al 1988 estimated that it extended 170 km from cajon pass to tejon pass based on this estimate we present the hypothesis that the rupture occurred in two segments in december 1812 the eastern segment generated the 8 december earthquake that damaged san juan capistrano san gabriel san fernando and san buenaventura thirteen days later the western segment ruptured generating the earthquake that damaged san fernando and san buenaventura again as well as santa barbara santa ynez and purisima concepcion

effects of source model variations on coulomb stress analyses of a multi fault intraplate earthquake sequence abstract fault models are quickly produced and iteratively improved over weeks to years following a major earthquake to characterise the dynamics of rupture evaluate the role of stress transfer and contribute to earthquake forecasting we model coulomb stress transfer cfs between the largest foreshock mw 5 4 1 year prior to first mainshock and three mw 6 1 to 6 5 earthquakes that occurred in a 12 hour period on january 22 1988 in central australia tennant creek earthquake sequence to investigate the role of static stress transfer in earthquake triggering relative to progressive source model development the effects of fault model variance are studied using cfs modelling of five different fault source model sequences 27 total models using different inputs from seismic and geospatial data some initial models do not yield positive cfs changes proximal to hypocentres but in all models preceding earthquakes generate positive cfs 0 1 bar on 10 to 30 of the forthcoming receiver fault rupture areas the most refined and data integrative model reveals cfs 0 7 to 13 bars within 2 km of impending hypocentres and large 30 to 99 areas of positive cfs when compared to global compilations of threshold cfs prior to impending ruptures average 3 71 bar median 1 bar this suggests that coulomb stress change theory adequately explains the tennant creek rupture sequence in the most refined model earthquake inter event times decrease as cfs increases suggesting that higher stress magnitudes may have more rapidly within hours triggered successive events thus accounting for some temporal aspects of this sequence cfs analyses provide a useful framework for understanding the spatiotemporal aspects of some intraplate earthquakes the progressive refinement of source models using emergent data may reduce epistemic uncertainties in the role of stress transfer that result from different model inputs approaches and results

the 1997 kagoshima japan earthquake doublet a quantitative analysis of aftershock rate changes we quantitatively map relative rate changes for the aftershock sequence following the second mainshock of the 1997 earthquake doublet m w 6 1 m w 6 0 in the kagoshima province japan using the spatial distribution of the modified omori law parameters for aftershocks that occurred during the 47 8 days between the two mainshocks we forecast the aftershock activity in the next 50 days and compare it to the actually observed rates the relative rate change map reveals four regions with statistically significant relative rate changes three negative and one positive our analysis suggests that the coseismic rate changes for off fault aftershocks could be explained by changes in static stress however to explain the activation and deactivation of on fault seismicity other mechanism such as unusual crustal properties and the presence of abundant crustal fluids are required

toggling of seismicity by the 1997 kagoshima earthquake couplet a demonstration of time dependent stress transfer 1 two m 6 well recorded strike slip earthquakes struck just 4 km and 48 days apart in kagoshima prefecture japan in 1997 providing an opportunity to study earthquake interaction aftershocks are abundant where the coulomb stress is calculated to have been increased by the first event and they abruptly stop where the stress is dropped by the second event this ability of the main shocks to toggle seismicity on and off argues that static stress changes play a major role in exciting aftershocks whereas the dynamic coulomb stresses which should only promote seismicity appear to play a secondary role if true the net stress changes from a sequence of earthquakes might be expected to govern the subsequent seismicity distribution however adding the stress changes from the two kagoshima events does not fully capture the ensuing seismicity such as its rate change temporal decay or migration away from the ends of the ruptures we therefore implement a stress transfer model that incorporates rate state friction in which seismicity is treated as a sequence of independent nucleation events that are dependent on the fault slip slip rate and elapsed time since the last event the model reproduces the temporal response of seismicity to successive stress changes including toggling decay and aftershock migration nevertheless the match of observed to predicted seismicity is quite imperfect due perhaps to inadequate knowledge of several model parameters however to demonstrate the potential of this approach we build a probabilistic forecast of larger earthquakes on the expected rate of small aftershocks taking advantage of the large statistical sample the small shocks afford not surprisingly such probabilities are highly time and location dependent during the first decade after the main shocks the seismicity rate and the chance of successive large shocks are about an order of magnitude higher than the background rate and are concentrated exclusively in the stress triggering zones

rare dynamic triggering of remote m 5 5 earthquakes from global catalog analysis probing the effects of a transient stress on the timing of an earthquake occurrence is necessary for understanding the remote interaction of large magnitude events global catalog data containing 35 years of m 5 5 earthquakes allow us to explore for periods of enhanced or suppressed seismic activity we consider 113 m 7 5 main shocks between 1977 and 2012 and focus on seismic activity on time scales from seconds to days following these main shocks we search for evidence of dynamic triggering of large magnitude events similar to the previously observed global increase during the first few days following the 2012 m8 6 indian ocean main shock we restrict the analysis to regions of elevated strain during the passage of surface waves using a threshold of 0 1 microstrain 3 kpa and a temporal window of 1 year we stack daily seismicity rate curves using the exclusion zone declustered m 5 5 catalog events in order to resolve deviations from the background rate our results do not indicate a significant change in activity for at least 10 days when considering the collective set of 113 main shocks and subsets at m8 0 and m8 5 thresholds the results also do not indicate immediate triggering of m 5 5 events we do find two instances of increased seismicity in the elevated strain region within 10 days these increases are subsequent to two main shocks the 1977 m8 3 and 2012 m8 6 both located in the indian ocean we conclude that a global change in m 5 5 earthquake rates following a transient stress from distant earthquakes is a rare occurrence

earthquake science shaking faults loose earthquakes often induce aftershocks on other faults but the mechanisms remain elusive an innovative analysis tells us more about the effects of dynamic stresses caused by the passage of seismic waves

near source modeling of the loma prieta earthquake evidence for heterogeneous slip and implications for earthquake hazard i have analyzed records from 20 strong motion instruments that recorded the 1989 loma prieta earthquake ml 6 9 to determine the spatial and temporal distribution of slip using a tomographic back projection technique i find that the earthquake ruptured bilaterally at approximately 80 of the local shear wave velocity over a distance of slightly more than 30 km from 13 km northwest to 20 km southeast of the hypocenter slip within the rupture zone was highly variable both in magnitude and direction slip at the hypocenter and immediately up dip was relatively low about 1 m there were two main areas of concentrated slip one centered 7 km northwest of the hypocenter at a depth of 14 km and the other centered 6 km southeast of the hypocenter at a depth of 12 km peak slip amplitude on these high slip patches exceeded 4 5 m a surprising aspect of the rupture model is that rake varies from being predominately strike slip to the southeast of the hypocenter to being predominately reverse slip to the northwest despite this variation in rake the average rake determined from the strong motion data is in agreement with that determined teleseismically there is a correlation between areas of high slip and areas of low aftershock activity a simple model to explain this observation is that the areas of high slip are also areas of high strength which slip only during infrequent large mainshocks other areas of the fault are weaker and may slip both seismically and aseismically most of the slip in the loma prieta earthquake occurred between 9 and 16 km depth on a structure that dips to the southwest and runs underneath the surface trace of the san andreas fault at a depth of 8 to 10 km this observation complicates the assessment of seismic hazard on the southern santa cruz mountains segment of the san andreas fault

holocene atlantic climate variations deduced from carbonate periplatform sediments leeward margin great bahama bank a marine sediment core from the leeward margin of great bahama bank gbb was subjected to a multiproxy study the aragonite dominated core md992201 comprises the past 7230 years in a decadal time resolution and shows sedimentation rates of up to 13 8 m kyr aragonite mass accumulation rates age differences between planktonic foraminifera and aragonite sediments and temperature distribution are used to deduce changes in aragonite production rates and paleocurrent strengths aragonite precipitation rates on gbb are controlled by exchange of carbonate ions and co2 loss due to temperature salinity conditions and biological activity and these are dependent on the current strength paleocurrent strengths on gbb show high current velocities during the periods 6000 5100 years bp 3500 2700 years bp and 1600 700 years bp lower current speeds existed during the time intervals 5100 3500 years bp 2700 1600 years bp and 700 100 years bp bahamian surface currents are directly linked to the north atlantic atmospheric circulation and thus periods with high low current speeds are proposed to be phases of strong weak atmospheric circulation

facies model on the modern isolated carbonate platform in the xisha archipelago south china sea abstract the xuande atoll with a discontinuous reef rim caused by platform drowning is a typical ellipse isolated platform on the northern slope of the south china sea based on the data of drilling holes the analysis of surface sediments and high resolution acoustic data six sedimentary facies are identified in the xuande atoll including reef outer slope reef front reef flat aeolianite sand island back reef slope and lagoon facies map shows that the elevated reef rimmed margins with islands are more noticeable on the windward of the platform with an elevated and discontinuous reef rimmed margin as well as coarse grained sediment in the interior platform xuande can serve as a case of a leaky bucket atoll which is characterized by initially drowning scenarios the facies architecture of the xuande atoll is evidently influenced by complex and interacting parameters including antecedent topography sea level wind driven currents water depth and tectonic subsidence different controlling factors exist in the drowning of the windward and leeward sides of the platform margin the study of modern depositional settings in the xuande atoll will provide insight on predictions for ancient carbonate provinces

seismic gap hypothesis ten years after the seismic gap hypothesis states that earthquake hazard increases with time since the last large earthquake on certain faults or plate boundaries one of the earliest and clearest applications of the seismic gap theory to earthquake forecasting was by mccann et al 1979 who postulated zones of high medium and low seismic potential around the pacific rim in the 10 years since there have been over 40 large m 7 0 earthquakes enough to test statistically the earlier forecast we also analyze another forecast of long term earthquake risk that by kelleher et al 1973 the hypothesis of increased earthquake potential after a long quiet period can be rejected with a large confidence the data suggest that contrary to these forecasts places of recent earthquake activity have larger than usual seismic hazard whereas the segments of the circum pacific belt with no large earthquakes in recent decades have remained relatively quiet the clustering of earthquake times does not contradict the plate tectonic model which constrains only the long term average slip rate not the regularity of earthquakes

suppression of large earthquakes by stress shadows a comparison of coulomb and rate and state failure stress shadows generated by california s two most recent great earthquakes 1857 fort tejon and 1906 san francisco substantially modified 19th and 20th century earthquake history in the los angeles basin and in the san francisco bay area simple coulomb failure calculations which assume that earthquakes can be modeled as static dislocations in an elastic half space have done quite well at approximating how long the stress shadows or relaxing effects should last and at predicting where subsequent large earthquakes will not occur there has however been at least one apparent exception to the predictions of such simple models the 1911 m 6 0 earthquake near morgan hill california occurred at a relaxed site on the calaveras fault we examine how the more complex rate and state friction formalism based on laboratory experiments might have allowed the 1911 earthquake rate and state time to failure calculations are consistent with the occurrence of the 1911 event just 5 years after 1906 if the calaveras fault was already close to failure before the effects of 1906 we also examine the likelihood that the entire 78 years of relative quiet only four m 6 earthquakes in the bay area after 1906 is consistent with rate and state assumptions given that the previous 7 decades produced 18 m 6 earthquakes combinations of rate and state variables can be found that are consistent with this pattern of large bay area earthquakes assuming that the rate of earthquakes in the 7 decades before 1906 would have continued had 1906 not occurred these results demonstrate that rate and state offers a consistent explanation for the 78 year quiescence and the 1911 anomaly although they do not rule out several alternate explanations

spatial and temporal distribution of slip for the 1992 landers california earthquake we have determined a source rupture model for the 1992 landers earthquake m w 7 2 compatible with multiple data sets spanning a frequency range from zero to 0 5 hz geodetic survey displacements near field and regional strong motions broadband teleseismic waveforms and surface offset measurements have been used explicitly to constrain both the spatial and temporal slip variations along the model fault surface our fault parameterization involves a variable slip multiple segment finite fault model which treats the diverse data sets in a self consistent manner allowing them to be inverted both independently and in unison the high quality data available for the landers earthquake provide an unprecedented opportunity for direct comparison of rupture models determined from independent data sets that sample both a wide frequency range and a diverse spatial station orientation with respect to the earthquake slip and radiation pattern in all models consistent features include the following 1 similar overall dislocation patterns and amplitudes with seismic moments of 7 to 8 10 26 dyne cm seismic potency of 2 3 to 2 7 km 3 2 very heterogeneous unilateral strike slip distributed over a fault length of 65 km and over a width of at least 15 km though slip is limited to shallower regions in some areas 3 a total rupture duration of 24 sec and an average rupture velocity of 2 7 km sec and 4 substantial variations of slip with depth relative to measured surface offsets the extended rupture length and duration of the landers earthquake also allowed imaging of the propagating rupture front with better resolution than for those of prior shorter duration strike slip events our imaging allows visualization of the rupture evolution including local differences in slip durations and variations in rupture velocity rupture velocity decreases markedly at shallow depths as well as near regions of slip transfer from one fault segment to the next as rupture propagates northwestward along the multiply segmented fault length the rupture front slows as it reaches the northern limit of the johnson valley landers faults where slip is transferred to the southern homestead valley fault an abrupt acceleration is apparent following the transfer this process is repeated and is more pronounced as slip is again passed from the northern homestead valley fault to the emerson fault although the largest surface offsets were observed at the northern end of the rupture our modeling indicates that substantial rupture was also relatively shallow less than 10 km in this region

controls on platform scale patterns of surface sediments shallow holocene platforms bahamas isolated carbonate platforms occur throughout geological history and commonly exhibit considerable spatial variability to evaluate the controls on the nature of sediment accumulation across the expansive shallow platform tops this study systematically compares and contrasts patterns in surface sediments from several shallow 10 m holocene bahamian examples remote sensing data field observations petrographic characterization and quantitative grain size analyses reveal the spatial patterns of sediment accumulation on crooked acklins platform and the berry islands bank integration of these data with synoptic observations of waves tides and currents along with regional geochemical data provides a means to explore the factors that influence platform scale sedimentary patterns these data illustrate that the platform interiors of both crooked acklins platform and berry islands bank are blanketed with medium to coarse sand size sediment peloids are most common in the interior of crooked acklins platform whereas the berry islands bank includes more abundant composite grains in both areas very little mud is present with surface sediments averaging 2 mud comparison of these results with published data from little bahama bank great bahama bank and caicos platform suggest that contrary to previous interpretations the presence of open margins and or brisk winds are not necessary for the occurrence of a platform top with little mud although the muddy sediment fraction of the interior can be suspended by elevated wave energy wind generated current speeds in protected platform interiors are relatively low instead in parts of the platform interiors transport and winnowing of fines is enhanced greatly by tidal currents which carry suspended sediments off the shallow platforms even if shielded by islands beyond physical influences however regional geochemical compilations suggest that the bahamian tides supply highly supersaturated waters rich in dissolved oxygen to these platform interiors this exchange is interpreted to facilitate favourable conditions for calcium carbonate precipitation in the form of ooids marine cements and hardened peloids across vast expanses of the platform interiors such fundamental controls on holocene platform scale sediment dynamics are likely to have influenced carbonate systems through the geological record

the slip history of the 1994 northridge california earthquake determined from strong motion teleseismic gps and leveling data we present a rupture model of the northridge earthquake determined from the joint inversion of near source strong ground motion recordings p and sh teleseismic body waves global positioning system gps displacement vectors and permanent uplift measured along leveling lines the fault is defined to strike 122 and dip 40 to the south southwest the average rake vector is determined to be 101 and average slip is 1 3 m the peak slip reaches about 3 m our estimate of the seismic moment is 1 3 0 2 10 26 dyne cm potency of 0 4 km3 the rupture area is small relative to the overall aftershock dimensions and is approximately 15 km along strike nearly 20 km in the dip direction and there is no indication of slip shallower than about 5 to 6 km the up dip strong motion velocity waveforms are dominated by large s wave pulses attributed to source directivity and are comprised of at least 2 to 3 distinct arrivals a few seconds apart stations at southern azimuths indicate two main s wave arrivals separated longer in time about 4 to 5 sec these observations are best modeled with a complex distribution of subevents the initial s wave arrival comes from an asperity that begins at the hypocenter and extends up dip and to the north where a second larger subevent is centered about 12 km away the secondary s arrivals at southern azimuths are best fit with additional energy radiation from another high slip region at a depth of 19 km 8 km west of the hypocenter the resolving power of the individual data sets is examined by predicting the geodetic gps and leveling displacements with the dislocation model determined from the waveform data and vice versa and also by analyzing how well the teleseismic solution predicts the recorded strong motions the general features of the geodetic displacements are not well predicted from the model determined independently from the strong motion data likewise the slip model determined from geodetic data does not adequately reproduce the strong motion characteristics whereas a particularly smooth slip pattern is sufficient to satisfy the geodetic data the strong motion and teleseismic data require a more heterogeneous slip distribution in order to reproduce the velocity amplitudes and frequency content although the teleseismic model can adequately reproduce the overall amplitude and frequency content of the strong motion velocity recordings it does a poor job of predicting the geodetic data consequently a robust representation of the slip history and heterogeneity requires a combined analysis of these data sets

second order moment of central california seismicity 1969 1982 the second order moment cross correlation function of earthquakes in the u s geological survey central california catalog between 1969 and 1982 was calculated with respect to a magnitude threshold m 4 0 over interevent distances up to 80 km and interevent times up to 320 days the statistical procedure results in a representation of the spatial temporal structure of the catalog associated with m 4 0 earthquakes and is capable of revealing patterns too weak to be detected in the space time distribution of seismicity for individual earthquake sequences a method is introduced for identifying aftershocks based on a physical two parameter model of the earthquake interaction process the results show that the aftershock process dominates the second order moment and may even obscure the statistical expression of a precursory process a concentration of foreshocks within 15 km and 3 days of m 4 0 main shocks exhibits an apparent migration toward the main shock loci with velocity 2 6 5 3 km d this concentration may be related to an observed tendency for m 4 0 events to cluster auto correlate over this interevent range with the identified aftershocks removed the residual catalog is poissonion in space and time when two m 4 0 earthquakes occur within 80 km and 40 days of each other aftershock productivity appears to be relatively enhanced in the earlier sequence this suggests that aftershock populations are not solely dependent on their main shocks and that unusually productive aftershock sequences may be predictors of future moderate earthquakes

on long term net flow over great bahama bank abstract a 398 day time series of middepth current measurements is combined with available wind and bottom pressure measurements and historical salinity data to characterize long term net flow patterns over great bahama bank between the tongue of the ocean and exuma sound the progressive vector diagram constructed from current measurements indicates a resultant flow of just over 2 cm s 1 toward 002 semidiurnal tides dominate the instantaneous current a one dimensional numerical model is used to investigate the local response to regional forcing results suggest that the long term net flow is a response to the combined effect of wind driven and density driven flow toward the northwest and a tide induced residual current toward the east southeast aided by a quasi steady barotropic pressure gradient toward the north northeast the slope of the sea surface is specified according to its ability to reproduce measurements under steady state conditions the model reproduces the middepth flow and indicates

testing the stress shadow hypothesis 1 a fundamental question in earthquake physics is whether aftershocks are predominantly triggered by static stress changes permanent stress changes associated with fault displacement or dynamic stresses temporary stress changes associated with earthquake shaking both classes of models provide plausible explanations for earthquake triggering of aftershocks but only the static stress model predicts stress shadows or regions in which activity is decreased by a nearby earthquake to test for whether a main shock has produced a stress shadow we calculate time ratios defined as the ratio of the time between the main shock and the first earthquake to follow it and the time between the last earthquake to precede the main shock and the first earthquake to follow it a single value of the time ratio is calculated for each 10 10 km bin within 1 5 fault lengths of the main shock epicenter large values of the time ratio indicate a long wait for the first earthquake to follow the main shock and thus a potential stress shadow whereas small values indicate the presence of aftershocks simulations indicate that the time ratio test should have sufficient sensitivity to detect stress shadows if they are produced in accordance with the rate and state friction model we evaluate the 1989 mw 7 0 loma prieta 1992 mw 7 3 landers 1994 mw 6 7 northridge and 1999 mw 7 1 hector mine main shocks for each main shock there is a pronounced concentration of small time ratios indicating the presence of aftershocks but the number of large time ratios is less than at other times in the catalog this suggests that stress shadows are not present by comparing our results to simulations we estimate that we can be at least 98 confident that the loma prieta and landers main shocks did not produce stress shadows and 91 and 84 confident that stress shadows were not generated by the hector mine and northridge main shocks respectively we also investigate the long hypothesized existence of a stress shadow following the 1906 san francisco bay area earthquake we find that while bay area catalog seismicity rates are lower in the first half of the twentieth century than in the last half of the nineteenth this seismicity contrast is also true outside of the bay area in regions not expected to contain a stress shadow this suggests that the rate change is due to a more system wide effect such as errors in the historical catalog or the decay of aftershocks of the larger 1857 fort tejon earthquake

effect of pore structure on the producibility of tight gas sandstones the estimated ultimate recovery eur is one of the most significant properties of tight gas sandstone reservoirs but it remains difficult to predict estimated ultimate recovery is dependent on the success of stimulation by hydraulic fracturing the existence and connectivity of natural fractures and as illustrated in this article the pore structure of the matrix here we analyze the lab measurements that are indicative of the pore structure and then we predict the effect of pore structure on producibility we develop a relationship between the eur of tight gas sandstones and their petrophysical properties measured by drainage and imbibition tests mercury intrusion withdrawal and porous plate and by resistivity analyses we use the ratio of residual mercury saturation after mercury withdrawal s gr to initial mercury saturation s gi which is the saturation at the start of withdrawal as a measure of gas likely to be trapped in the matrix during production and hence a proxy for eur a multitype pore space model is required to explain mercury intrusion capillary pressures in these rocks implications of this model are supported by other available laboratory measurements the model comprises a conventional network model and a treelike pore structure an acyclic network that mimic the intergranular and intragranular void spaces respectively the notion of the treelike pore structure is introduced here for the first time in the context of tight gas sandstones applying the multitype model to porous plate data we classify the pore spaces of rocks into intergranular dominant intermediate and intragranular dominant this pore space classification is topological and is not based on scale or size these classes have progressively less drainage and imbibition hysteresis which leads to the prediction that significantly more hydrocarbon is recoverable from intragranular porosity than intergranular porosity available field data production logs corroborate the higher producibility of intervals with intragranular porosity although the data are not sufficient to eliminate the possible contribution of other factors such as size and shape of the volume contacted by hydraulic fractures or the presence and attributes of natural fractures the superior recovery of hydrocarbon from intragranular dominant pore structures is despite its inferior initial production rate

a monte carlo method for probabilistic hazard assessment of induced seismicity due to conventional natural gas production abstract a monte carlo approach to probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is developed for a case of induced seismicity associated with a compacting gas reservoir the geomechanical foundation for the method is the work of kostrov 1974 and mcgarr 1976 linking total strain to summed seismic moment in an earthquake catalog our monte carlo method simulates future seismic hazard consistent with historical seismic and compaction datasets by sampling probability distributions for total seismic moment event locations and magnitudes and resulting ground motions ground motions are aggregated over an ensemble of simulated catalogs to give a probabilistic representation of the ground motion hazard this approach is particularly well suited to the specific nature of the time dependent induced seismicity considered we demonstrate the method by applying it to seismicity induced by reservoir compaction following gas production from the groningen gas field a new ground motion prediction equation gmpe tailored to the groningen field has been derived by calibrating an existing gmpe with local strong motion data for 2013 2023 we find a 2 chance of exceeding a peak ground acceleration of 0 57 g and a 2 chance of exceeding a peak ground velocity of 22 cm s above the area of maximum compaction disaggregation shows that earthquakes of m w 4 5 at the shortest hypocentral distances of 3 km and ground motions two standard deviations above the median make the largest contributions to this hazard uncertainty in the hazard is primarily due to uncertainty about the future fraction of induced strains that will be seismogenic and how ground motion and its variability will scale to larger magnitudes

predictive modeling of the seismic cycle of the greater san francisco bay region the seismic cycle for the san francisco bay region is synthesized by a model combining the pre and post 1906 seismic histories the long term acceleration of seismic release seismic moment benioff strain release or event count in the seismic cycle and the shorter term accelerations preceding the larger earthquakes within that cycle are modeled using an empirical predictive technique called time to failure analysis in which rate of seismic release is proportional to an inverse power of the remaining time to failure the exponent of time to failure in the accelerating sequences appears to be scale invariant and the length of the full cycle is estimated at 269 50 years the 1989 loma prieta earthquake which is the culmination of the first subcycle in the present long term seismic cycle should have been predictable with an uncertainty of 2 years in time and 0 5 in magnitude although the specific location at loma prieta was not predictable by this technique if our model is correct and if the loma prieta earthquake is the culmination of a subcycle the san francisco bay region should be entering a relatively long 20 50 years period of seismic quiescence above magnitude 6 a great earthquake such as the 1906 san francisco event would appear to be more than a century in the future

a unified model for dynamic and static stress triggering of aftershocks antishocks remote seismicity creep events and multisegmented rupture aftershocks have been thought to be triggered by static stress transfer the 1992 landers and 1999 hector mine california earthquakes have demonstrated the possibility of remote triggering of seismicity highlighting the role of dynamic seismic waves static stress changes and transient deformations have different timescales the mechanisms by which they trigger earthquakes are thought to be different leading to an unwieldy vision of aftershock triggering we propose a model that encompasses both static and dynamic triggering of aftershocks and antishocks as well as the occurrence of stable slip creep events or multisegmented rupture the framework of this model is based on the stability instability transition of faults we propose that dynamic and static stress triggering pertain to the same physical process we study the effect of the complete coulomb failure function we demonstrate the possibility of the triggering of seismicity by a dynamic stress pulse in a stress shadow zone characterized by a negative static stress field the limited time efficiency of dynamic triggering shown by the data is explained by the model we suggest that dynamic waves trigger only the most unstable faults associated with a relatively short characteristic time while the static stress field triggers also faults that are stable associated with a larger characteristic time

evolution of moderate seismicity in the san francisco bay region 1850 to 1993 seismicity changes related to the occurrence of large and great earthquakes the rate of seismic activity of moderate size m 5 5 earthquakes in the san francisco bay sfb region has varied considerably during the past 150 years as measured by the rate of seismic moment release seismic activity in the sfb region is observed to accelerate prior to m 7 0 earthquakes in 1868 1906 and 1989 and then to decelerate following them we examine these seismicity changes in the context of the evolution of the stress field in the sfb region as a result of strain accumulation and release using a model of dislocations in an elastic halfspace we use a coulomb failure function cff to take into account changes in both shear and normal stresses on potential failure planes of varying strike and dip in the sfb region we find that the occurrence of a large or great earthquake creates a stress shadow a region where the stress driving earthquake deformation is decreased interseismic strain accumulation acts to reverse this process gradually bringing faults in the sfb region out of the stress shadow of a previous large or great earthquake and back into a state where earthquake failure is possible as the stress shadow generated by a large or great earthquake disappears it migrates inward toward the fault associated with that large or great event the observed changes in the rate of occurrence of moderate earthquakes in the sfb region are broadly consistent with this model in detail the decrease in seismicity throughout most of the sfb region and a localized increase in the monterey bay region following the great 1906 earthquake is consistent with our predicted stress changes the timing and location of moderate size earthquakes when the rate of seismicity increases again in the 1950s is consistent with areas in which the 1906 stress shadow had been eliminated by strain accumulation in the sfb region those earthquakes that are most inconsistent with our stress evolution model including the 1911 earthquake southeast of san jose are found to occur in regions where dip slip faulting is common in addition to strike slip the 1906 earthquake brought that zone of dip slip faulting closer to failure suggesting that the 1911 event may have been a reverse faulting earthquake rather than a strike slip one similar to the 1984 morgan hill earthquake the occurrence of activity on faults very close to the san andreas such as the lake elsman earthquakes of 1988 and 1989 appear to be associated with the last disappearence of the stress shadow on the loma prieta segment of the san andreas fault thus events of that type may represent an intermediate term precursor to a large earthquake such as the 1989 loma prieta event much of the moderate size earthquake activity in the sfb region appears to be modulated in time by the buildup and release of stress in large and great earthquakes a tensorial approach to earthquake prediction i e taking into account changes in the components of the stress tensor has several advantages over examining scalar changes such as those in seismic activity and moment release rates this tensorial approach allows for both activation and quiescence but in different subregions prior to as well as after large earthquakes

a constitutive law for rate of earthquake production and its application to earthquake clustering seismicity is modeled as a sequence of earthquake nucleation events in which the distribution of initial conditions over the population of nucleation sources and stress ing history control the timing of earthquakes the model is implemented using solutions for nucleation of unstable fault slip on faults with experimentally derived rate and state dependent fault properties this yields a general state variable constitutive formulation for rate of earthquake production resulting from an applied stressing history to illustrate and test the model some characteristics of seismicity following a stress step have been explored it is proposed that various features of earthquake clustering arise from sensi tivity of nucleation times to the stress changes induced by prior earthquakes the model gives the characteristic omori aftershock decay law and interprets aftershock parameters in terms of stress change and stressing rate earthquake data appear to support a model prediction that aftershock duration defined as the time for rates to return to the back ground seismicity rate is proportional to mainshock recurrence time observed spatial and temporal clustering of earthquake pairs arises as a consequence of the spatial depen dence of stress changes of the first event of the pair and stress sensitive time dependent nucleation applications of the constitutive formulation are not restricted to the simple stress step models investigated here it may be applied to stressing histories of arbitrary complexity the apparent success at modeling clustering phenomena suggests the possibil ity of using the formulation to estimate short to intermediate term earthquake probabil ities following occurrence of other earthquakes and for inversion of temporal variations of earthquake rates for changes in driving stress

response of the san jacinto fault zone to static stress changes from the 1992 landers earthquake we perform an analysis of the seismicity response of the san jacinto fault zone to static coulomb stress changes from the 1992 landers earthquake sequence results show that in general stress changes forecast rate changes well we find a significant positive correlation between the change in rate and the magnitude of the coulomb stress change with a correlation coefficient of 0 76 equivalent to 5 6 when compared to a 0 null hypothesis furthermore although the correlations are less clear over negative than positive stress changes there is evidence of some coulomb stress dependent quiescence on stress shadows models that account for heterogeneity in reference seismicity show clear improvements in their predictions of spatial variability of aftershock rates compared to those that assume uniform reference we find also that better performance is obtained 1 using a time dependent coulomb rate state model compared to a time independent exponential model and 2 using structurally constrained rather than optimal target fault orientations these results are an important step in the validation of coulomb stress based methods for quantitative seismicity forecasting we conclude that the correspondence between the predictions of coulomb stress models for aftershock seismicity may be sensitive to strong heterogeneity in aftershock locations and orientations associated with the presence of large scale structure in aftershock study areas in these cases we suggest that where the regional structure is mapped incorporating it explicitly into coulomb stress models may improve the performance of quantitative coulomb stress based forecasts

stress transferred by the 1995 mw 6 9 kobe japan shock effect on aftershocks and future earthquake probabilities the kobe earthquake struck at the edge of the densely populated osaka kyoto corridor in southwest japan we investigate how the earthquake transferred stress to nearby faults altering their proximity to failure and thus changing earthquake probabilities we find that relative to the pre kobe seismicity kobe aftershocks were concentrated in regions of calculated coulomb stress increase and less common in regions of stress decrease we quantify this relationship by forming the spatial correlation between the seismicity rate change and the coulomb stress change the correlation is significant for stress changes greater than 0 2 1 0 bars 0 02 0 1 mpa and the nonlinear dependence of seismicity rate change on stress change is compatible with a state and rate dependent formulation for earthquake occurrence we extend this analysis to future mainshocks by resolving the stress changes on major faults within 100 km of kobe and calculating the change in probability caused by these stress changes transient effects of the stress changes are incorporated by the state dependent constitutive relation which amplifies the permanent stress changes during the aftershock period earthquake probability framed in this manner is highly time dependent much more so than is assumed in current practice because the probabilities depend on several poorly known parameters of the major faults we estimate uncertainties of the probabilities by monte carlo simulation this enables us to include uncertainties on the elapsed time since the last earthquake the repeat time and its variability and the period of aftershock decay we estimate that a calculated 3 bar 0 3 mpa stress increase on the eastern section of the arima takatsuki tectonic line attl near kyoto causes fivefold increase in the 30 year probability of a subsequent large earthquake near kyoto a 2 bar 0 2 mpa stress decrease on the western section of the attl results in a reduction in probability by a factor of 140 to 2000 the probability of a mw 6 9 earthquake within 50 km of osaka during 1997 2007 is estimated to have risen from 5 6 before the kobe earthquake to 7 11 afterward during 1997 2027 it is estimated to have risen from 14 16 before kobe to 16 22

source description of the 1999 hector mine california earthquake part ii complexity of slip history we present a rupture model of the hector mine earthquake m 7 1 determined from the joint inversion of strong motion records p and sh teleseismic body waves global positioning system gps displacement vectors and measured surface offset we solve for variable local slip rake angle rise time and rupture velocity of a finite fault model involving multiple segments the inversion methodology developed in a companion article ji et al 2002 combines a wavelet transform approach with a nonlinear simulated annealing algorithm the final model is checked by forward simulating the interferometric synthetic aperture radar insar data our estimation to the seismic moment is 6 28 10 19 n m which is distributed along three segments from north to south releasing 37 41 and 22 of the total moment respectively the average slip is 1 5 m with peak amplitudes as high as 7 m the fault rupture has an average rise time of 3 5 sec and a relatively slow average rupture velocity 1 9 km sec resulting in a 14 sec rupture propagation history our approach permits large variation in rupture velocity and rise time and indicates that rise time appears to be roughly proportional to slip and shorter rise times are associated with the initiation of asperity rupture we also find evidence for nearly simultaneous rupture of the two northern branches