neogene tectonics and kinematics of western north america recent quantitative studies of deformation in western north america including pacific and north american relative plate motion estimates of neogene displacement in the southern basin and range and anomalous paleomagnetic declinations of the pacific northwest are self consistent and together determine a simple kinematic model of the deformation that is an extension of the 1970 plate tectonic model of atwater a large continental lithospheric block called here the sierra nevada klamath block was displaced about 300 km to the w nw relative to the north american craton during the neogene the southern end of the overriding plate in the subduction zone along the pacific northwest has been shifted the same amount resulting in the subduction zone and overlying accretionary complex rotating clockwise about 30 the pivot is located near seattle and the several tens of kilometers of n s shortening required to accommodate the rotation is taken up in the major thrusts of the juan de fuca strait and olympic peninsula

re estimated effects of deep episodic slip on the occurrence and probability of great earthquakes in cascadia abstract mazzotti and adams 2004 estimated that rapid deep slip during typically two week long episodes beneath northern washington and southern british columbia increases the probability of a great cascadia earthquake by 30 100 times relative to the probability during the 58 weeks between slip events because the corresponding absolute probability remains very low at 0 03 per week their conclusion is that though it is more likely that a great earthquake will occur during a rapid slip event than during other times a great earthquake is unlikely to occur during any particular rapid slip event this previous estimate used a failure model in which great earthquakes initiate instantaneously at a stress threshold we refine the estimate assuming a delayed failure model that is based on laboratory observed earthquake initiation laboratory tests show that failure of intact rock in shear and the onset of rapid slip on pre existing faults do not occur at a threshold stress instead slip onset is gradual and shows a damped response to stress and loading rate changes the characteristic time of failure depends on loading rate and effective normal stress using this model the probability enhancement during the period of rapid slip in cascadia is negligible

history and isostatic effects of the last ice sheet in southern british columbia abstract the late wisconsinan cordilleran ice sheet covered british columbia southern yukon territory and parts of alaska washington idaho and montana its major source areas were the high mountain ranges of the canadian cordillera and flow was strongly controlled by topography the last ice sheet began to develop about 30 000 25 000 14c yr ago but it did not achieve its maximum extent until 15 000 14 000 14c yr bp ice sheet growth was interrupted locally by stillstands and retreat ice sheet decay was rapid and was characterized by complex frontal retreat at the periphery accompanied locally by brief readvances and by downwasting and stagnation by 10 000 14c yr bp

the winona basin structure and tectonics a compilation of published and new geophysical data from the winona basin off northern vancouver island has allowed a detailed interpretation of the sedimentary and tectonic history of the region to be made the basin is forming as a result of the asymmetric subsidence of a recently isolated lithospheric block that is slowly converging with the continental margin the crust beneath the basin is young 1 5 ma increasing in age from southeast to northwest and of normal oceanic thickness it is virtually non magnetic however probably because of its having been rapidly buried by turbidite sedimentation subsidence of the basin and uplift of the paul revere ridge began in the early pleistocene ca 1 8 ma and since that time up to 8 km of turbidite sediments has accumulated in the basin the nature of the fanning of the deposits suggests that the basin has been kept full throughout its history the minimum average supply rate necessary to accomplish this is about 70 106 mg year 1 this pleistocene ave

continental signature of a ridge trench triple junction northern vancouver island south of the juan de fuca pacific north america triple junction located off northern vancouver island there is subduction and to the north there is oblique convergence along the queen charlotte transform fault in the mid tertiary periods of extension including crustal thinning and volcanism formed queen charlotte basin heat flow on northern vancouver island 67 mw m2 is the same as in queen charlotte basin to the north but it decreases abruptly to the south over a distance of 70 km to an average value of 46 mw m2 compared to the rest of the island the northern island has more subdued topography a lower mean elevation slightly higher bouguer gravity values and lower seismicity late tertiary volcanics which occur only on the northern part of the island geochemically resemble the tertiary masset formation which formed during periods of extension in queen charlotte basin these data are consistent with a tertiary history including periods of extension for northern vancouver island similar to queen charlotte basin and distinguish it from the rest of vancouver island the southern boundary of this northern block extends northeastward from brooks peninsula approximately above the inferred northern edge of the subducted juan de fuca plate and parallel to a series of linear magnetic anomalies associated with a northeasterly trending fault zone the abrupt transition in observed heat flow is most likely associated with the edge of the subducted plate which produces large temperature differences at depths of 30 40 km the time constant for these thermal effects to reach the surface conductively indicates that this boundary has been stable over tens of millions of years and therefore the location of the subducting plate s northern edge must have been stationary or moving very slowly over this period consequently it is likely that the triple junction has been located on average for the last 40 myr off brooks peninsula

differentiating bubble free layers from melt layers in ice cores using noble gases melt layers are clear indicators of extreme summer warmth on polar ice caps the visual identification of refrozen meltwater as clear bubble free layers cannot be used to study some past warm periods because in deeper ice bubbles are lost to clathrate formation we present here a reliable method to detect melt events based on the analysis of kr ar and xe ar ratios in ice cores and apply it to the detection of melt in clathrate ice from the eemian at neem greenland additionally melt layers in ice cores can compromise the integrity of the gas record by dissolving soluble gases or by altering gas transport in the firn which affects the gas chronology we find that the easily visible 1 mm thick bubble free layers in the wais divide ice core do not contain sufficient melt to alter the gas composition in the core and do not cause artifacts or discontinuities in the gas chronology the presence of these layers during winter and the absence of anomalies in soluble gases suggests that these layers can be formed by processes other than refreezing of meltwater consequently the absence of bubbles in thin crusts is not in itself proof of a melt event

itrf2000 a new release of the international terrestrial reference frame for earth science applications 1 for the first time in the history of the international terrestrial reference frame the itrf2000 combines unconstrained space geodesy solutions that are free from any tectonic plate motion model minimum constraints are applied to these solutions solely in order to define the underlying terrestrial reference frame trf the itrf2000 origin is defined by the earth center of mass sensed by satellite laser ranging slr and its scale by slr and very long baseline interferometry its orientation is aligned to the itrf97 at epoch 1997 0 and its orientation time evolution follows conventionally that of the no net rotation nnr nuvel 1a model the itrf2000 orientation and its rate are implemented using a consistent geodetic method anchored over a selection of itrf sites of high geodetic quality ensuring a datum definition at the 1 mm level this new frame is the most extensive and accurate one ever developed containing about 800 stations located at about 500 sites with better distribution over the globe compared to past itrf versions but still with more site concentration in western europe and north america about 50 of station positions are determined to better than 1 cm and about 100 sites have their velocity estimated to at or better than 1 mm yr level the itrf2000 velocity field was used to estimate relative rotation poles for six major tectonic plates that are independent of the trf orientation rate a comparison to relative rotation poles of the nuvel 1a plate motion model shows vector differences ranging between 0 03 and 0 08 m y equivalent to approximately 1 7 mm yr over the earth s surface itrf2000 angular velocities for four plates relative to the pacific plate appear to be faster than those predicted by the nuvel 1a model the two most populated plates in terms of space geodetic sites north america and eurasia exhibit a relative euler rotation pole of about 0 056 0 005 m y faster than the pole predicted by nuvel 1a and located about 10 n 7 e more to the northwest compared to that model

plate boundary deformation between the pacific and north america in the explorer region abstract one of the consequences of plate tectonics is that a spreading ridge will eventually approach a subduction zone the problem whether the possible break up of the approaching ridge will lead to the development of independent micro plates or not is still unresolved some 4 million years ago the interaction between the juan de fuca ridge and the cascadia subduction zone resulted in ridge fragmentation in the explorer region there are two proposed post miocene kinematic models one that proposes the presence of a micro plate and the other that treats the region as a transform deformation zone or so called pseudo plate we use earthquake strain rates derived from 74 events since 1948 to estimate a long term velocity field for the region by comparing this result with the predicted velocity fields for both models we try to discriminate between the two the earthquake strain rates indicate the presence of a transform deformation zone between the north american nam and pacific pac plates the velocity field derived from the inversion of the earthquake strain rates indicates that seismic activity takes up 50 30 1 of the pac nam relative motion nuvel 1a demets et al 1994 effect of recent revisions to the geomagnetic reversal time scale on estimates of current plate motions geophys res lett 21 2191 2194 within the seismogenic layer of this zone and is indistinguishable in direction from the nuvel 1a pac nam model the presence of this explorer transform zone is consistent with the strain rate and velocity field for the pseudo plate model and indicates that seismicity defines a new plate boundary zone between the pacific and north american plates earthquake derived strain rates are low along the nootka transform which accommodates relative motion between the juan de fuca and north american plates the cause for the absence of significant seismic slip along this transform is unclear and may be closely linked to the fact that the adjacent cascadia subduction zone is locked the micro plate model which we reject predicts sw ne convergence in the eastern explorer region and this is inconsistent with the earthquake strain rates as well as with surface fault observations

full interseismic locking of the nankai and japan west kurile subduction zones an analysis of uniform elastic strain accumulation in japan constrained by permanent gps we analyze permanent global positioning system gps data obtained over japan between 1995 and 1997 to estimate the instantaneous interseismic coupling ratio of the seismogenic zones due to the subduction of the pacific and philippine sea plates below the japanese islands we first derive the gps strain rate fields that characterize the crustal deformation of southern and northern japan and invert them to determine the effective subduction velocity along the central nankai trough on one side and the japan west kurile trench on the other these reference free velocities are close to those predicted by plate motion models with respect to eurasia we conclude that the eurasian reference frame gives a good approximation to the subduction motion and that to first order both subduction zones were fully locked during the period of measurements we then test whether the coupling ratio shows local variations within the seismogenic zones to do this we divide the subduction interface into 35 km 30 km elements that we model by point source groups and we invert the gps velocity field referenced to eurasia to derive the coupling ratio between 0 and 1 on each fault element the results are coherent over the 3 years and confirm that both the central nankai and the japan west kurile seismogenic zones are homogeneously fully locked most of the coupling ratios are close to 1 and a few are close to 0 intermediate values are rare the zones of decoupling correspond either to strong postseismic afterslip associated with the 1994 sanriku oki interplate earthquake japan trench or to a small overestimation of the actual lower limit of the locked zone we conclude that within the resolution of the gps data and the model 1 partial coupling did not exist during these 3 years along the nankai and japan west kurile trenches 2 the small seismic coupling ratio previously derived from earthquakes analysis for the japan and kurile trenches may indicate that a significant part of the elastic energy is dissipated silently through slow earthquakes and postseismic afterslip and 3 the heterogeneous coseismic slip pattern observed for the large and great earthquakes that rupture both subduction zones is in great contrast to the homogeneous loading finally we discuss the nonelastic residual deformation within the frame of the long term deformation of the japanese islands

geological and geophysical characteristics of the tuzo wilson seamounts implications for plate geometry in the vicinity of the pacific north america explorer triple junction seamarc ii imagery seabeam bathymetry seismic reflection profiles and gravity and magnetic data are used to establish the tectonic significance of the tuzo wilson seamounts two submarine volcan

coherent noise in marine seismic data three mechanisms that might produce noise patterns on stacked sections are examined direct and trapped waves that propagate outward from the seismic source cable motion caused by the tugging action of the boat and tail buoy and scattered energy from irregularities in the water bottom and sub bottom different noise patterns can be observed on shot profiles and common midpoint cmp gathers these patterns can be diagnostic of the dominant mechanism in a set of data field data suggest that the dominant noise is from waves scattered within the shallow sub bottom this type of noise is enhanced by cmp stacking moreover it can be as strong as surface wave noise on stacked land seismic data as well moveout filtering is best for suppressing the noise while preserving signal since the scattered noise does not exhibit a linear moveout pattern on cmp sorted gathers moveout filtering must be applied either to traces within shot records and common receiver gathers or to stacked traces our data example demonstrates that although it is more costly moveout filtering of the unstacked data is particularly effective because it conditions the data for the critical data dependent processing steps of predictive deconvolution and velocity analysis modified journal abstract

strain measurements and the potential for a great subduction earthquake off the coast of washington geodetic measurements of deformation in northwestern washington indicate that strain is accumulating at a rate close to that predicted by a model of the cascadia subduction zone in which the plate interface underlying the continental slope and outer continental shelf is currently locked but the remainder of the interface slips continuously presumably this locked segment will eventually rupture in a great thrust earthquake with a down dip extent greater than 100 kilometers

land motion estimates from gps at tide gauges a geophysical evaluation summary space geodesy applications have mainly been limited to horizontal deformations due to a number of restrictions on the vertical component accuracy monitoring vertical land motion is nonetheless of crucial interest in observations of long term sea level change or postglacial rebound measurements here we present a global vertical velocity field obtained with more than 200 permanent gps stations most of them colocated with tide gauges tgs we used a state of the art homogeneous processing strategy to ensure that the reference frame was stable throughout the observation period of almost 10 yr we associate realistic uncertainties to our vertical rates taking into account the time correlation noise in the time series the results are compared with two independent geophysical vertical velocity fields 1 vertical velocity estimates using long term tg records and 2 postglacial model predictions from the ice 5g vm2 adjustment the quantitative agreement of the gps vertical velocities with the internal estimates of vertical displacements using the tg record is very good with a mean difference of 0 13 1 64 mm yr 1 on more than 100 sites for 84 per cent of the gps stations considered the vertical velocity is confirmed by the tg estimate to within 2 mm yr 1 the overall agreement with the glacial isostatic adjustment gia model is good with discrepancy patterns related either to a local misfit of the model or to active tectonics for 72 per cent of the sites considered the predictions of the gia model agree with the gps results to within two standard deviations most of the gps velocities showing discrepancies with respect to the predictions of the gia model are however consistent with previously published space geodesy results we in turn confirm the value of 1 8 0 5 mm yr 1 for the 20th century average global sea level rise and conclude that gps is now a robust tool for vertical land motion monitoring which is accurate at least at 1 mm yr 1

current tectonics of northern cascadia from a decade of gps measurements 1 global positioning system gps measurements to study regional deformation were initiated in northern cascadia in the late 1980s and early 1990s on the basis of a decade of gps data we derive a crustal velocity field for nw washington sw british columbia the permanent and campaign gps velocities are defined with respect to north america in the itrf2000 reference frame velocity uncertainties are estimated using a model of time series noise spectra this new velocity field is the basis for interpretation of the tectonics of the northern cascadia subduction system gps velocities are interpreted in terms of interseismic loading of the megathrust using different coupling models our data confirm that the upper part of the megathrust is nearly fully locked an exponential model for the downdip transition zone gives slightly better agreement with the data compared to the common linear transition the landward decrease of forearc strain loading is smaller than predicted by any of the current subduction interseismic models this could be a consequence of a small 0 3 mm yr long term motion of the southern vancouver island forearc with respect to north america or of a concentration of interseismic strain across the elastically weaker cascadia volcanic arc in northern vancouver island our velocity field supports the existence of an independent explorer microplate currently underthrusting underneath north america at least up to brooks peninsula further north gps velocities indicate transient and or permanent deformation of northernmost vancouver island related to the interaction with the explorer microplate and possibly with the queen charlotte transform margin

high interseismic coupling of the alaska subduction zone sw of kodiak island inferred from gps data we use global positioning system gps measurements to make the first geodetic study of the semidi segment of the alaska aleutian subduction zone this segment which sustained an mw 8 2 earthquake in 1938 lies between kodiak island where the subduction interface appears to presently be fully locked and the shumagin islands segment where substantial aseismic slip occurs we invert the gps station velocity estimates using a nonlinear least squares algorithm to solve for the width of the locked zone the dip and the interseismic coupling of a model subduction interface the data are consistent with a shallow plate interface dipping 6 a locking depth of 23 km and high interseismic coupling of 80

origin and evolution of the seattle fault and seattle basin washington analysis of seismic reflection data reveals that the seattle basin washington is markedly asymmetric and consists of 9 10 km of eocene and younger deposits the basin began as a discrete geologic element in the late eocene 40 ma the result of a reorganization in regional fault geometry and kinematics in this reorganization dextral offset on the puget fault south east of seattle stepped eastward and the seattle fault began as a restraining transfer zone north vergent reverse or thrust faulting on the seattle fault forced flexural subsidence in the seattle basin to the north offset on the seattle fault and subsidence of the seattle basin have continued to the present

strain accumulation and rotation in western oregon and southwestern washington 1 velocities of 75 geodetic monuments in western oregon and southwestern washington extending from the coast to more than 300 km inland have been determined from gps surveys over the interval 1992 2000 the average standard deviation in each of the horizontal velocity components is 1 mm yr 1 the observed velocity field is approximated by a combination of rigid rotation euler vector relative to interior north america 43 40 n 0 14 119 33 w 0 28 and 0 822 0 057 myr 1 clockwise quoted uncertainties are standard deviations uniform regional strain rate eee 7 4 1 8 een 3 4 1 0 and enn 5 0 0 8 nstrain yr 1 extension reckoned positive and a dislocation model representing subduction of the juan de fuca plate beneath north america subduction south of 44 5 n was represented by a 40 km wide locked thrust and subduction north of 44 5 n by a 75 km wide locked thrust

new kinematic models for pacific north america motion from 3 ma to present i evidence for steady motion and biases in the nuvel 1a model we use velocities derived from 2 4 5 years of continuous gps observations at 21 sites on the pacific and north american plates along with a subset of the nuvel 1a data to examine the steadiness of pacific north america motion since 3 16 ma the transfer of baja california to the pacific plate and the magnitude of biases in the nuvel 1a estimate of pacific north america motion we find that pacific north america motion has remained steady since 3 16 ma but at rates significantly faster than predicted by nuvel 1a in the vicinity of baja california our gps derived model and recent seafloor spreading rates in the southern gulf of california both indicate that the nuvel 1a model underestimates pacific north america rates by 4 2 mm yr 1 steady pacific north america motion since 3 16 myr and increasing seafloor spreading rates since 3 58 myr in the gulf of california imply that pacific north america motion was partitioned between seafloor spreading in the gulf of california and decelerating slip along faults in or offshore from the baja peninsula

recent movements of the juan de fuca plate system analysis of the magnetic anomalies of the juan de fuca plate system allows instantaneous poles of rotation relative to the pacific plate to be calculated from 7 ma to the present by combining these with global solutions for pacific america and absolute relative to hot spot motions a plate motion sequence can be constructed this sequence shows that both absolute motions and motions relative to america are characterized by slower velocities where younger and more buoyant material enters the convergence zone pivoting subduction the resistance provided by the youngest portion of the juan de fuca plate apparently resulted in its detachment at 4 ma as the independent explorer plate in relation to the hot spot framework this plate almost immediately began to rotate clockwise around a pole close to itself such that its translational movement into the mantle virtually ceased after 4 ma the remainder of the juan de fuca plate adjusted its motion in response to the fact that the youngest material entering the subduction zone was now to the south differences in seismicity and recent uplift between northern and southern vancouver island may reflect a distinction in tectonic style between the normal subduction of the juan de fuca plate to the south and a complex underplating occurring as the explorer plate is overridden by the continent the history of the explorer plate may exemplify the conditions under which the self driving forces of small subducting plates are overcome by the influence of larger adjacent plates the recent rapid migration of the absolute pole of rotation of the juan de fuca plate toward the plate suggests that it too may be nearing this condition

the skipjack island fault zone an active transcurrent structure within the upper plate of the cascadia subduction complex abstract the skipjack island fault zone has been mapped in the san juan islands between vancouver island canada and the washington state mainland usa a decade ago interpretation of multibeam sonar seafloor imagery revealed that skipjack island an east west striking sedimentary bedrock outcrop was a fault controlled structural feature a major fault separates skipjack island from a deformed sedimentary bedrock outcrop on the seafloor to the north recently the skipjack island fault zone s morphology and extent have been explored both to the west and east of the island using multibeam echosounder bathymetry seismic reflection profiles and sediment cores the character of the skipjack island fault zone is well defined locally by the interpreted seismic reflection profiles which show active faults that displace sediments deposited since the last glacial maximum the central part of the fault zone near skipjack island appears as a near vertical structure in the shallow subsurface that has been subjected to left lateral motion as evidenced by a bedrock exposure on the seabed north of the island where folded strata bend eastward against the fault the result of drag from fault motion interpretations of recent geophysical data suggest an extension of the skipjack island fault zone farther to the west where it trends towards and possibly connects with the fulford fault on vancouver island and to the east where it either terminates north of lummi island or continues eastward onto the mainland the skipjack island fault zone is interpreted to be the northern boundary of the san juan archipelago with the devils mountain fault zone being the southern boundary both fault zones represent the longest continuous faults of the san juan archipelago this newly mapped fault zone and its zone of deformation to the north may represent the northern boundary of the cascadia forearc potential sesimicity of the skipjack island fault zone and its proximity to the steep unstable northeastern side of orcas island and the southern front of the fraser river delta poses a geohazads problem in the form of earthquakes landslides submarine slides and tsunamis

correlated errors in geodetic time series implications for time dependent deformation analysis of frequent trilateration observations from the two color electronic distance measuring networks in california demonstrate that the noise power spectra are dominated by white noise at higher frequencies and power law behavior at lower frequencies in contrast earth scientists typically have assumed that only white noise is present in a geodetic time series since a combination of infrequent measurements and low precision usually preclude identifying the time correlated signature in such data after removing a linear trend from the two color data it becomes evident that there are primarily two recognizable types of time correlated noise present in the residuals the first type is a seasonal variation in displacement which is probably a result of measuring to shallow surface monuments installed in clayey soil which responds to seasonally occurring rainfall this noise is significant only for a small fraction of the sites analyzed the second type of correlated noise becomes evident only after spectral analysis of line length changes and shows a functional relation at long periods between power and frequency of 1 where is frequency and 2 with 2 this type of correlated noise is termed random walk noise and its source is mainly thought to be small random motions of geodetic monuments with respect to the earth s crust though other sources are possible because the line length changes in the two color networks are measured at irregular intervals power spectral techniques cannot reliably estimate the level of 1 noise rather we also use here a maximum likelihood estimation technique which assumes that there are only two sources of noise in the residual time series white noise and random walk noise and estimates the amount of each from this analysis we find that the random walk noise level averages about 1 3 mm yr and that our estimates of the white noise component confirm theoretical limitations of the measurement technique in addition the seasonal noise can be as large as 3 mm in amplitude but typically is less than 0 5 mm because of the presence of random walk noise in these time series modeling and interpretation of the geodetic data must account for this source of error by way of example we show that estimating the time varying strain tensor a form of spatial averaging from geodetic data having both random walk and white noise error components results in seemingly significant variations in the rate of strain accumulation spatial averaging does reduce the size of both noise components but not their relative influence on the resulting strain accumulation model

distribution of the pacific north america motion in the queen charlotte islands s alaska plate boundary zone 1 we present gps data that constrain the distribution of the relative pacific north america motion across the queen charlotte islands alaska panhandle margin nw north america velocities from a network of 22 campaign and permanent sites indicate that the pacific north america transpressive motion is mostly accommodated along the locked queen charlotte fairweather fault a significant portion 6 7 mm yr of the relative plate motion is taken up by distributed dextral shear across a 200 km wide region of the margin two models have been proposed to describe how the pacific north america convergence is accommodated off the queen charlotte islands internal shortening vs underthrusting of the pacific plate although the gps data cannot discriminate between the models they provide strong constraints on the convergence distribution the significant non transient motion of gps sites along the central british columbia southern alaska margin has implications for seismic hazard and tectonic evolution models of the canadian cordillera

nature of the low velocity zone in cascadia from receiver function waveform inversion abstract a dipping low velocity zone lvz is a ubiquitous structural element of subduction zones worldwide in this study we map seismic attributes characterizing the lvz beneath the cascadia subduction zone from northern vancouver island to northern california using receiver function waveform inversion throughout this region the lvz is characterized by high v p v s ratios mean 2 77 strong s velocity contrasts 50 and thicknesses averaging 3 37 km the lvz is immediately underlain by a second weaker layer exhibiting moderate v p v s ratios mean 1 85 with mean thickness of 4 62 km we interpret the combined structure in terms of subducting oceanic crust based on classical structural petrological descriptions and constraints from previous studies of ophiolites and ocean drill cores the lvz is identified with pervasively hydrated high porosity pillow basalts and sheeted dikes of layer 2 with possible contributions from sediments layer 1 fluids released from metamorphic dehydration reactions are maintained near lithosphere fluid pressures through an impermeable plate boundary above and a low porosity gabbroic mafic cumulate dominated layer 3 below

tectonic deformation in western washington from continuous gps measurements the analysis of 3 years of continuous data from 7 permanent gps stations along the western washington section of the cascadia subduction zone indicates that the direction of the observed horizontal velocities with respect to station drao nominally representing the stable north american continent is roughly parallel to the relative plate convergence direction of the juan de fuca and north america plates and that their magnitude decreases away from the trench most of this deformation can be attributed to inter seismic strain accumulation due to the locking of the thrust interface when the dislocation model predictions are subtracted from the observed velocities there is evidence for an additional n s oriented contraction at a rate of 4 mm yr over a distance of 250 km this signal presumably represents a more long term deformation pattern than the periodic accumulation and release of elastic strain connected with subduction earthquakes and is most likely related to the occurrence of shallow earthquakes in western washington that are characterized by predominantly n s oriented maximum principal stress

relocation of earthquakes west of vancouver island british columbia 1965 1983 in the tectonically complex region of young plate interaction west of vancouver island 360 earthquakes have been relocated the earthquakes occurred in the years 1965 1983 when the canadian seismograph network in the region did not significantly change configuration and are in the magnitude range 3 5 a traveltime model was derived and applied to arrival times for a selected limited set of station phase combinations time corrections for these combinations were derived from joint hypocentre locations of earthquakes in specific regions using independently located reference events an algorithm for routine location of offshore earthquakes in this region is suggested the correlation between seismicity and mapped bathymetrical features is strong along the revere dellwood transform fault and the northern segments of the explorer ridge transform fault system considerable seismicity occurs inside the explorer plate indicating internal deformation the sovanco and nootka shear zones the southern border

a tsunami about 1000 years ago in puget sound washington water surged from puget sound sometime between 1000 and 1100 years ago overrunning tidal marshes and mantling them with centimeters of sand one overrun site is 10 kilometers northwest of downtown seattle another is on whidbey island some 30 kilometers farther north neither site has been widely mantled with sand at any other time in the past 2000 years deposition of the sand coincided to the year or less with abrupt probably tectonic subsidence at the seattle site and with landsliding into nearby lake washington these findings show that a tsunami was generated in puget sound and they tend to confirm that a large shallow earthquake occurred in the seattle area about 1000 years ago

zircon u pb ages from the wabigoon manitou lakes region wabigoon subprovince northwest ontario three distinct stratigraphic units have been recognized in the crow lake savant lake belt these are a basal unit consisting of high magnesium tholeiitic flows a middle unit consisting mostly of tholeiitic to calc alkaline pyroclastic rocks and flows and an upper unit of high iron tholeiitic flows a zircon u pb study has been carried out on seven rocks from the wabigoon manitou lakes region of this belt in the manitou lakes area a minimum age of 2755 ma on a porphyry pluton intruded into the wapageisi volcanics gives a minimum age for the high magnesium tholeiitic sequence a trondhjemite phase of the atikwa batholith near wabigoon lake that is dated at 2732 2 2 9 ma has the same age within experimental error as a rhyolite flow from the lower wabigoon volcanics in the same area that is dated at however a trondhjemite phase of the atikwa batholith at eagle lake that is dated at is distinctly younger than a dacite flow collected nearby from the lower wabigoon volcanics that is dated at both thes

continuous gps monitoring of elastic strain in the northern cascadia subduction zone previous monitoring and modeling of crustal deformation across the northern cascadia margin at vancouver is has provided strong evidence that the subduction thrust fault is locked and may generate future great earthquakes the recent establishment of the western canada deformation array wcda a network of continuous gps trackers in southwestern british columbia provides a new tool for monitoring crustal strain and thereby helps to assess the earthquake hazard in this region 17 months of continuous data from the three longest running wcda sites penticton victoria holberg indicate 1 a 7 mm yr easterly motion of victoria relative to penticton victoria is located in the forearc at the southeastern end of vancouver is 230 km from trench axis whereas penticton is located behind the arc 520 km from the trench axis and assumed fixed on the stable north american plate 2 a 3 mm yr northwesterly motion and 10 mm yr uplift with a large uncertainty of holberg relative to penticton holberg is located on the northern most part of vancouver is 50 km from the trench and near the plate triple junction and 3 the presence of probably seasonal variations in the apparent relative positions of the two coastal sites with respect to penticton the landward motion of victoria agrees with the deformation predicted by elastic dislocation models of the interseismic period for a great subduction thrust earthquake as constrained by previous deformation data although not as well resolved the motion of holberg roughly parallel to the margin is significantly different and is inconsistent with simple subduction models the non linear variations in measured position are dominated by an annual period probably resulting from seasonal biases in the precise orbit estimates or in the modeling of tropospheric delays or tidal effects

seismotectonics of the explorer region 1 the explorer region offshore western canada is a tectonically complex area surrounded by the pacific north america and juan de fuca plates existing tectonic models for the region differ fundamentally proposed plate configurations range from multiple independent plate fragments to an explorer plate now fused to north america along the continental margin and cut by pacific north america transform faults in the west we present new seismological data constraining the region s current tectonics we use three component regional waveforms to determine the source parameters of 84 earthquakes with magnitude greater than 4 combined with 34 harvard centroid moment tensor solutions they represent the region s largest earthquake source parameter data set obtained by robust waveform modeling techniques in addition we perform joint epicenter determination to relocate larger earthquakes recorded since 1918 the source parameters and improved locations provide a consistent tectonic picture earthquake slip vector azimuths along the pacific plate boundary change smoothly and are significantly less northerly oriented than the pacific north america plate motion direction requiring an independent explorer plate the present day pacific explorer boundary is formed by transform faults subparallel to the revere dellwood wilson fault plate motion vectors indicate that the winona block is part of the explorer plate current explorer motion is more northerly than indicated by magnetic anomalies prior to 2 ma implying a recent change possibly coinciding with a northwestward ridge jump near explorer plate s northern end transferring the winona block from the pacific to the explorer plate in response to these plate motion changes the region north of the western sovanco fracture zone was assimilated into the pacific plate the region around the eastern sovanco fracture zone characterized by broadly distributed seismicity is composed of well defined sets of conjugate faults bounding rotating crustal blocks earthquake fault strikes agree with the dominant northwest southeast fault sets however the conjugate sets must be also active to fully accommodate present day explorer plate motion the sw portion of the strike slip nootka fault zone the explorer juan de fuca plate boundary is well defined by focused seismicity however its full extent under nootka island remains unresolved the explorer north america boundary shows sporadic low magnitude seismicity our explorer north america rotation pole predicts convergence varying from negligible at the boundary s northwest end to 2 cm yr at the se end this convergence can be accommodated either by subduction or by crustal thickening extending to the north american continent we favor subduction based on low deformation rates observed by onshore gps sites the present explorer plate system configuration is a result of stepwise reorientation of the explorer ridge system each step successively reducing the subduction rate relative to north america

gps deformation in a region of high crustal seismicity n cascadia forearc we estimate the rate of crustal deformation in the central and northern cascadia forearc based on a combination of existing global positioning system gps velocity data along the cascadia subduction zone gps strain rates and velocities show that the northwestern washington southwestern british columbia region is currently shortening at 3 3 5 mm yr 31 in a n s direction in good agreement with inference from crustal earthquake statistics on the longterm the shortening rate is 5 6 mm yr 31 providing that the subduction related interseismic loading of the margin is purely elastic compared to the velocity of the oregon forearc with respect to north america v 7m m yr 31 this indicates that most of the forearc motion is accommodated in the puget georgia basin area corresponding to the main concentration of crustal seismicity the difference between the current and long term shortening rates may be taken up during subduction megathrust earthquakes thus these events could produce a sudden increase of n s compression in the puget sound region and could trigger major seattle fault type crustal earthquakes published by elsevier science b v

confidence intervals for motion and deformation of the juan de fuca plate finite rotation parameters for 17 isochrons from anomalies 1 4a for the juan de fuca pacific plate pair are reported comparison of confidence intervals for plate rotations derived by different techniques indicates that a single plate misfit criterion significantly underestimates the confidence region defining the confidence interval by a threshold level of misfit determined by an f statistic gives similar results to the technique of bootstrap resampling for internally consistent data bootstrap resampling offers far greater robustness in the case of inconsistent data precision of about 1 km in the direction normal to isochrons is available for the younger anomalies this precision allows confident recognition of 2 5 km of eastward deformation of the pacific plate 50 100 km south of the active sovanco transform slight deformation of the northern juan de fuca plate adjacent to the nootka fault zone is also apparent east of the northern gorda ridge younger 3 ma anomalies do not show measurable deformation near the blanco fracture zone but older anomalies are up to 30 km east of their position predicted by rigid behavior of the juan de fuca plate reconstruction of the overlap geometry of past propagators shows no evidence that the extent of overlap has ever exceeded 70 km even with offset of 75 km in one case and 140 km in another new techniques for testing for intervals of constant plate motion require at least two changes in instantaneous motion at 99 confidence a clockwise change in motion direction at about 5 ma and an increase in the gradient of spreading rate since 2 ma two other changes in gradient since 5 ma are required at 95 confidence

global mapping functions for the atmosphere delay at radio wavelengths i have developed expressions for calculating the ratios mapping functions of the line of sight hydrostatic and wet atmospheric path delays to their corresponding zenith delays at radio wavelengths for elevation angles down to 3 the coefficients of the continued fraction representation of the hydrostatic mapping function depend on the latitude and height above sea level of the observing site and on the day of the year the dependence of the wet mapping function is only on the site latitude by comparing with mapping functions calculated from radiosonde profiles for sites at latitudes between 43 s and 75 n the hydrostatic mapping function is seen to be more accurate than and of comparable precision to mapping functions currently in use which are parameterized in terms of local surface meteorology when the new mapping functions are used in the analysis of geodetic very long baseline interferometry vlbi data the estimated lengths of baselines up to 10 400 km long change by less than 5 mm as the minimum elevation of included data is reduced from 12 to 3 the independence of the new mapping functions from surface meteorology while having comparable accuracy and precision to those that require such input makes them particularly valuable for those situations where surface meteorology data are not available

a revised dislocation model of interseismic deformation of the cascadia subduction zone 1 cas3d 2 a new three dimensional 3 d dislocation model is developed to model interseismic deformation rates at the cascadia subduction zone the model is considered a snapshot description of the deformation field that changes with time the effect of northward secular motion of the central and southern cascadia forearc sliver is subtracted to obtain the effective convergence between the subducting plate and the forearc horizontal deformation data including strain rates and surface velocities from global positioning system gps measurements provide primary geodetic constraints but uplift rate data from tide gauges and leveling also provide important validations for the model a locked zone based on the results of previous thermal models constrained by heat flow observations is located entirely offshore beneath the continental slope similar to previous dislocation models an effective zone of downdip transition from locking to full slip is used but the slip deficit rate is assumed to decrease exponentially with downdip distance the exponential function resolves the problem of overpredicting coastal gps velocities and underpredicting inland velocities by previous models that used a linear downdip transition a wide effective transition zone etz partially accounts for stress relaxation in the mantle wedge that cannot be simulated by the elastic model the pattern of coseismic deformation is expected to be different from that of interseismic deformation at present 300 years after the last great subduction earthquake the downdip transition from full rupture to no slip should take place over a much narrower zone

strain accumulation in western washington the juan de fuca plate is subducted beneath the north american plate off the coast of washington at a rate of about 40 mm yr n68 e the average principal strain rates extension reckoned positive measured in northwestern washington are as follows olympic peninsula 25 km south of port angeles from 1982 through 1990 e 1 0 011 0 027 strain yr n31 e 6 6 and e 2 0 092 0 028 strain yr n59 w 6 6 and near seattle from 1972 through 1985 e 1 0 027 0 019 strain yr n22 e 6 4 and e 2 0 036 0 013 strain yr n68 w 6 4 both strain measurements are consistent with uniaxial contraction in the direction of plate convergence uplift rates inferred from tide gage recordings are about 4 mm yr on the pacific coast and near 0 mm yr farther inland near seattle these deformation rates are consistent with a model of the cascadia subduction zone in which the plate interface beneath the continental slope and outer continental shelf is locked but free to slip farther landward the limited downdip extent of the locked segment of the plate interface is consistent with a shallow depth 20 km of the isotherm 450 c that defines the brittle ductile transition small thrust events diagnostic of seismic subduction should then occur only offshore and at shallow depths the principal strain rates measured from 1972 through 1983 in the back arc region near richland washington are e 1 0 016 0 013 strain yr n03 w 34 and e 2 0 024 0 013 strain yr n87 e 34

three dimensional dislocation model for great earthquakes of the cascadia subduction zone there have been no historical cascadia great subduction thrust earthquakes but there is good recent evidence that very large earthquakes have occurred in the past and that strain is building up toward a future great event geodetic measurements in the coastal region from northern california to southern british columbia show vertical and horizontal deformation as expected for the strain accumulation of a locked thrust fault the segment of the subduction thrust that is locked and may rupture in future great events has previously been estimated through two dimensional 2 d elastic dislocation modeling of interseismic deformation geodetic data in this study a general 3 d dislocation model for thrust faults has been developed that accommodates curved fault geometry and nonuniform interseismic locking or coseismic rupture the model is based on die surface deformation due to shear faulting in an elastic half space the 3 d model of the cascadia subduction zone calculates the surface deformation for a locked zone or a rupture zone of variable width along the margin the bend in the margin trend and subducting slab end effects are included there is a downdip transition zone between interseismic completely locked and free slip portions of the fault or between coseismic full rupture and no displacement an initial 3 d model based upon 2 d dislocation models and upon thermal constraints was adjusted to optimize the fit of the predicted interseismic surface deformation to current deformation geodetic data the best fit model has the thrust locked along the whole margin with an average locked zone width of 60 km and a transition zone width of 60 km the two zones lie mainly offshore beneath the continental shelf and slope the locked and transition zone widths vary smoothly along the margin being greater off northern washington where the thrust dip is shallow and narrower off central oregon assuming that the locked plus transition zones approximate the maximum coseismic rupture area these widths permit amw 9 earthquake

effects of superficial layers on coseismic displacements for a dip slip fault and geophysical implications summary we study the effect of a superficial layer overlying a half space on the surface displacements created by a dip slip dislocation on a planar rectangular fault using a 2 d finite element model the effect of the density and poisson s ratio is negligible on the other hand the contrast in young s modulus between the top layer and the half space below significantly affects the modelled coseismic displacements the horizontal displacements are more sensitive than the vertical displacements to the existence of the top layer near the fault a low rigidity layer with a young s modulus of 10 gpa can increase the horizontal displacements by up to 40 per cent an analytical 3 d half space model is used to interpret this effect in terms of an equivalent homogeneous model the presence of a top layer can be partly simulated in a homogeneous half space by perturbing the depth and the slip on the fault from their real values to equivalent values for a given displacement field observed at the surface the perturbations in fault depth and slip can reach 1 km and 25 per cent respectively the fault dip angle is not model dependent we conclude that for the accurate estimation of fault depth and slip from coseismic geodetic data rigidity contrasts existing within the upper crust must be taken into account not taking into account the effect of an existing low rigidity layer also leads to an underestimation of seismic moment release this may in part be the cause of apparent discrepancies between seismic and geodetic moment releases in particular areas such as the gulf of corinth greece

current deformation and the width of the seismogenic zone of the northern cascadia subduction thrust evidence has been obtained for the accumulation of elastic strain across the northern cascadia subduction zone that may be released in a future very large subduction thrust earthquake vertical and horizontal strain rates across the southern vancouver island region have been determined through 1 long term trends in tide gauge data 2 changes in repeated accurate leveling surveys 3 changes in repeated high accuracy gravity profiles and 4 horizontal shortening observed in repeated precise positioning surveys the outer coast is uplifting at a rate of a few millimeters per year decreasing landward and shortening is occurring across the 100 km wide coastal region at a rate of about 0 1 microstrain per year mm km 1yr 1 the results are compared with the distribution of strain accumulation predicted from elastic dislocation and viscoelastic models for a subduction thrust fault the location of the fault as used in the models is well defined by multichannel seismic reflection and other geophysical data most of the observed current deformation can be explained by interseismic strain accumulation associated with the subduction thrust of southern vancouver island and northern washington provided the locked portion is restricted to a 60 km wide band offshore beneath the continental shelf and slope this conclusion also results from modeling the coseismic subsidence on the outer coast of vancouver island about 300 years ago deduced from paleoseismicity data the unusually narrow downdip extent of the subduction thrust seismogenic zone that extends little if at all beneath the coast is a consequence of high temperatures associated with the young age of the subducted oceanic lithosphere and the thick blanket of insulating sediments the high temperatures limit brittle seismogenic behavior downdip to where the thrust fault is at a depth of less than 15 km the distance from the seismic portion of the megathrust limits the estimated ground motion at the major centers of vancouver and victoria from this source the narrow width may also limit the earthquake size however events of magnitude well over 8 are possible

crustal velocity field of southwest japan subduction and arc arc collision we investigate crustal deformation in southwest japan over a 3 year period revealed by a permanent dense global positioning system gps array southwest japan is a part of the amurian plate a microplate moving about 10 mm yr toward the east with respect to the eurasian plate it overrides the philippine sea plate at the nankai trough and collides with the northeast japan arc in the central part of japan in this paper we first derive gps site velocities relative to the stable part of the amurian plate in order to isolate signals of crustal deformation caused by the subduction and or the collision the velocity field has a conspicuous feature indicating the interseismic elastic loading by the philippine sea plate slab at the nankai trough characterized by the northwestward movements of points throughout the studied area their amplitudes are the largest at the pacific coast and decay toward the japan sea coast with a subtle systematic shift of azimuths a model assuming an elastic half space the convergence rate at the nankai trough based on a refined euler vector and the strength of the coupling inferred from a thermal model could explain the velocity field in the western part of the studied area to a large extent those in the eastern part systematically deviate from them and the residual components there show east west shortening and north south extension this may represent crustal thickening and trenchward extrusion of crustal blocks caused by the collision between southwest and northeast japan this suggests that the collision between southwest and northeast japan gives rise to not only crustal thickening but also trenchward extrusion of crustal block a velocity contrast was found across the median tectonic line the largest inland active fault in japan but the current permanent gps network is not dense enough for us to discuss its coupling depth

a regional study of shear wave splitting above the cascadia subduction zone margin parallel crustal stress recordings of local earthquakes from 16 three component broadband seismic stations in southwestern british columbia washington and northern oregon are used to study regional variations of shear wave anisotropy in the north american plate above the subducting juan de fuca plate there is evidence for shear wave splitting at all sites with good agreement of fast polarization directions and travel time delays at adjacent stations most stations exhibit fast directions parallel to the strike of the margin with anisotropy of 1 2 these fast polarization directions are consistent with earthquake focal mechanisms and borehole stress studies indicating that the observed anisotropy is likely due to crustal stresses i e extensive dilatancy anisotropy theory the margin parallel stresses may be due to oblique subduction of the juan de fuca plate however at the station closest to the coast ozb the fast direction shows a more margin normal orientation that may be associated with the proximity of the locked portion of the underlying subduction thrust fault

the updip and downdip limits to great subduction earthquakes thermal and structural models of cascadia south alaska sw japan and chile this study examines thermal and structural controls of the updip and downdip rupture limits of great subduction thrust earthquakes data on past great earthquake seismic limits have been compiled for four continental subduction zones cascadia sw japan south alaska and chile these limits have then been compared to the predictions of several models for what constrains great earthquake rupture temperatures on the subduction thrusts have been estimated by finite element numerical models the landward limits of the observed updip aseismic zones correspond to the position where the thrust temperature reaches about 100 c that is depths of about 2 to 10 km for the subduction zones studied this temperature agrees with the dehydration of stable sliding smectite clays to illite chlorite the temperatures in this region are controlled mainly by the thickness of sediment on the incoming crust and by the crustal age and thus heat flow the downdip limits correspond to the depth on the thrust where either 1 the temperature reaches about 350 c which corresponds to thermally activated stable sliding behavior for crustal rocks with a transition to 450 c or 2 about 40 km depth if 350 c is reached at greater depth depths of about 40 km approximately correspond to the intersection of the thrust with the continental forearc moho and this downdip limit may be a consequence of stable sliding serpentinite or talc and other hydrated forearc mantle rocks the primary temperature controls on the downdip region are the age of the subducting oceanic plate and the thrust dip profile secondary control comes from the thickness of incoming sediment the convergence rate and the radioactive heat generation in the overlying forearc the 100 c updip limit occurs near the trench for young subducting plates with a thick sediment section such as cascadia 6 8 ma and up to 80 km landward for older oceanic crust such as south alaska 50 ma the 350 c downdip thermal limit is applicable for young oceanic plates e g cascadia and nankai whereas the forearc mantle limit applies for older plates e g south alaska and chile except near the chile rise for the margins studied that have experienced great earthquakes there is generally good agreement between the postulated thermal and moho limits and the rupture or seismogenic zone as defined by the distribution of aftershocks and by waveform tsunami and dislocation modeling the downdip limit of the interseismic locked zone from dislocation modeling is also in agreement with these limits

geodetic evidence for active landward tilting of the oregon and washington coastal ranges nine leveling routes that extend inland from near the coast of oregon and washington indicate consistent landward tilting of the 600 km long coastal ranges at about 3 10 8 rad yr 1 analysis of tide gauge observations indicates tilting with roughly the same magnitude and sense as the leveling measurements these short term tilt rates 10 80 yr are comparable with longer term rates 100 000 yr deduced from tilted marine terraces contemporary landward tilting is interpreted to result from continuing subduction of the juan de fuca plate beneath north america the similarity between long and short term deformation suggests that present day subduction is occurring via aseismic creep as hypothesized by ando and balazs 1979 however recent measurements of horizontal deformation in northwest washington which have been interpreted to indicate elastic strain accumulation appear to be incompatible with aseismic subduction additional releveling observations along the oregon routes last observed in 1941 and further studies of late pleistocene deformation along the coastal region of oregon and washington could help determine present day tectonics and assess the risk of large thrust earthquakes in this area

the northern limit of the subducted juan de fuca plate system analysis of data recorded at an array of three component broadband seismograph stations deployed on northern vancouver island and the adjacent british columbia mainland at the northern end of the cascadia subduction zone provides the first constraints on the s wave velocity structure of this region and permits us to define the northern limit of the subducted juan de fuca plate system during a 2 year period more than 80 teleseisms were recorded at our five stations the method of receiver function analysis was used to constrain the s velocity structure to upper mantle depths beneath the northern three stations a relatively simple continental crust is interpreted with a well defined moho near 37 39 km depth an upper crustal s velocity discontinuity at these stations is interpreted as the top of the high velocity rocks of the wrangellia terrane in contrast more complicated structure dominated by pronounced low velocity zones dipping to the ne are interpreted beneath our southern two stations the shallower low velocity zone is 6 8 km thick has an s velocity contrast of 0 6 1 1 km s and lies within the continental crust this feature is similar to a pronounced low velocity layer the e zone imaged beneath southern vancouver island the deeper low velocity zone is interpreted as the subducted oceanic crust we interpret the pronounced change in s velocity structure that we observe as the northern limit of the subducted oceanic plate beneath vancouver island this change coincides with significant changes in topography heat flow gravity and geochemistry

ephemeral plate tectonics at the queen charlotte triple junction three plate boundaries the queen charlotte transform the cascadia subduction zone and the juan de fuca ridge meet in a complex triple junction offshore vancouver island some interpretations of the plate tectonics of the region have included the explorer ridge the dellwood knolls and the tuzo wilson volcanic field as part of the spreading system requiring up to three triple junctions in the region new seabeam bathymetry interpreted with existing regional data sets indicate that the dellwood knolls and tuzo wilson volcanic field are not independent plate boundaries but the result of leaky transform tectonics between two overlapping transform faults seismicity shows that the explorer plate is being deformed by pacific north american relative motion as a new transform plate boundary forms and cuts off the explorer ridge the system is evolving to a single triple junction at the northern terminus of the juan de fuca ridge where it meets the nootka deformation zone thus the explorer microplate which was spawned 5 ma is an ephemeral adjustment to mechanical difficulties at the triple junction this new model implies that the explorer subduction zone is no longer active ephemeral oceanic microplates have also existed at pacific north american triple junctions off southern california and baja california

postglacial rebound at the northern cascadia subduction zone postglacial rebound is the response of the earth to the decay of ice sheets a postglacial rebound model explains crustal tilting and rapid uplift at the northern cascadia subduction zone that occurred during retreat of the cordilleran ice sheet observations explained by the model include the shoreline tilts of two proglacial lakes that formed at 13 5 14 ka 14c yr ago and rapid sea level fall land uplift at 12 12 5 ka modelled mantle viscosity values range from 5 1018 to 5 1019 pa s and are consistent with previous viscosity inferences from observations of crustal deformation following subduction zone earthquakes 1018 1019 pa s no lower limit to subduction zone mantle viscosity is apparent from our model but viscosity values equal to or larger than 1020 pa s are de nitely ruled out our modelled subduction zone viscosity values are smaller than most upper mantle viscosity estimates derived from postglacial rebound studies of tectonically less active regions 1020 1021 pa s the rapid observed uplift at 12 ka requires in addition to a low mantle viscosity rapid unloading from a sudden collapse of remaining coastal portions of the southern cordilleran ice sheet the sudden collapse provides 0 18 m of global eustatic sea level rise approximately 0 7 of the sea level rise associated with melt water pulse ia predictions of a global postglacial rebound model ice 3g with a 1021 pa s upper mantle viscosity were previously applied to geodetic data from this region to isolate signals associated with the earthquake cycle owing to the low viscosity values and resulting rapid recovery of glacial deformation our model predicts present day postglacial rebound uplift rates at least 10 times smaller than ice 3g less than about 0 1 mm yr as the ice 3g adjustments were substantial this indicates the need for re evaluation of the geodetic data 2000 elsevier science ltd all rights reserved

revel a model for recent plate velocities from space geodesy 1 we present a new global model for recent plate velocities revel describing the relative velocities of 19 plates and continental blocks the model is derived from publicly available space geodetic primarily gps data for the period 1993 2000 we include an independent and rigorous estimate for gps velocity uncertainties to assess plate rigidity and propagate these uncertainties to the velocity estimates the velocity fields for north america eurasia and antarctica clearly show the effects of glacial isostatic adjustment and australia appears to depart from rigid plate behavior in a manner consistent with the mapped intraplate stress field two thirds of tested plate pairs agree with the nuvel 1a geologic 3 myr average velocities within uncertainties three plate pairs caribbean north america caribbean south america and north america pacific exhibit significant differences between the geodetic and geologic model that may reflect systematic errors in nuvel 1a due to the use of seafloor magnetic rate data that do not reflect the full plate rate because of tectonic complexities most other differences probably reflect real velocity changes over the last few million years several plate pairs arabia eurasia arabia nubia eurasia india move more slowly than the 3 myr nuvel 1a average perhaps reflecting long term deceleration associated with continental collision several other plate pairs including nazca pacific nazca south america and nubia south america are experiencing slowing that began 25 ma the beginning of the current phase of andean crustal shortening

southern california permanent gps geodetic array error analysis of daily position estimates and site velocities we analyze time series of daily positions estimated from data collected by 10 continuously monitoring global positioning system gps sites in southern california during the 19 month period between the june 28 1992 mw 7 3 landers and january 17 1994 mw 6 7 northridge earthquakes each time series exhibits a linear tectonic signal and significant colored noise spectral power at frequencies in the range 5 yr 1 to 0 5 d 1 is dominated by white noise or possibly fractal white noise and is several orders of magnitude higher than what would be expected from random walk noise in this short period range attributed by others to geodetic monument motions estimating a single slope for the time series power spectra suggests fractal white noise processes with spectral indices of about 0 4 site velocity uncertainties assuming this fractal white noise model are 2 4 times larger than uncertainties obtained assuming a purely white noise model a combination white noise plus flicker noise spectral index of 1 model also fits the data and suggests that the velocity uncertainties should be 3 6 times larger than for the white noise model we cannot adequately distinguish between these two noise models nor can we rule out the possibility of a random walk signal at the lowest frequencies these questions await the analysis of longer time series in any case reducing the magnitude of low frequency colored noise is critical and appears to be best accomplished by building sites with deeply anchored and braced monuments otherwise rate uncertainties estimated from continuous gps measurements may not be improved significantly compared to those estimated from infrequent campaign mode measurements

relative and absolute sea level rise in western canada and northwestern united states from a combined tide gauge gps analysis 1 empirical studies and climate models suggest large variations of absolute sea level asl changes between oceanic basins such potential variations raise concern on the applicability of global mean asl predictions to specific regions and on estimates of relative sea level rsl hazards we address this issue for the western canada and northwestern united states coastline by estimating the 20th century asl rate using a combination of 34 colocated tide gauge and global positioning system gps stations the tide gauge data are quality controlled and corrected for spatially and temporally correlated sea level transients in order to derive robust rsl trends and standard errors reference frame and other gps specific issues are considered as part of the error budget in absolute gps vertical velocities our combined tide gauge gps analysis aligned to the international terrestrial reference frame 2000 indicates a northeast pacific asl rise of 1 8 0 2 mm a through the 20th century which is similar to accepted rates for the global eustatic mean for the period 1993 2003 we find a regional asl rate of 4 4 0 5 mm a consistent with satellite altimetry on the basis of the intergovernment panel on climate change assessment report 4 mean scenario and our assessment of coastal motions from gps and tide gauge data we derive a map of predicted 21st century rsl rise in western canada and the northwestern united states variations in coastal uplift strongly affect spatial rsl patterns subsidence of southern puget sound may significantly increase rsl rise in the seattle tacoma metropolitan area conversely tectonic uplift along parts of the outer west coast may reduce future rsl rise by up to 50 100

scale variation of post glacial sediment yield in chilliwack valley british columbia the holocene volumetric sediment budget is estimated for coarse textured sediments sand and gravel in a large formerly glaciated valley in southwest british columbia erosion is estimated by compiling volumetric loss estimated in digital elevation models dems of gullied topography and by applying a non linear diffusion model on planar undissected hillslopes estimates of steepland yield are based on estimates of post glacial deposition volumes in fans cones and deltas at the outlets of low order tributary catchments erosion of post glacial fans and tributary valley fills is estimated by reconstructing formerly continuous surfaces results are classed by catchment order and compared across scales of contributing area revealing declining specific sediment yield in m3 km 2 a 1 with catchment area for the smaller tributaries 10 km2 and increasing specific sediment yield for larger tributaries and chilliwack valley itself approximately 60 of mobilized sediment is redeposited in first to third order catchments with lesser proportions stored at the outlets of higher order catchments a simple network routing model emphasizes the significant sediment flux contributions from colluvium drift blankets and gullies in steeper terrain as this material is deposited at junctions within the lower drainage network an increasing proportion of material is derived from remnant valley fills and para glacial fans in the major valleys yield from lower order steepland catchments tends to remain in storage indefinitely sequestered on footslopes these observations have implications for modelling the post glacial sediment balance amongst catchments of varying size after 104 years the system remains in disequilibrium the critical linkage lies between low order hillslope catchments fourth order and the larger valleys with more complex fluvial systems copyright 2010 john wiley sons ltd

seismicity and rates of relative motion on the plate boundaries of western north america summary the consistency of earthquake data and plate tectonic models and other estimates of fault slip may be tested by estimating rates of motion from the earthquakes using the concept of seismic moment the contribution of individual events may simply be summed but a generally better estimate of long term average slip rate is obtained by integration over magnitudefrequency of occurrence relations estimates of fault motion rates associated with earthquakes are possible within about a factor of 2 using this approach if the major sources of uncertainty are given careful consideration e g incompleteness and inaccuracies in the earthquake data empirical moment magnitude relations and the effect of their stochasticity fault widths or depth extents the recurrence relations maximum magnitudes and the form of truncation at the maximum magnitude a formulation for the recommended magnitude density truncation is developed application of the latter method to the earthquake data of the offshore transform faults of the juan de fuca ridge system the queen charlotte fault zone and the northern vancouver island area in each case gives good agreement with rates from plate tectonic models for the southern san andreas fault and gulf of california area there is also good agreement with previous estimates obtained by summing the contributions of individual events however the displacement rate in the margin convergence zone of southern british columbia washington and oregon computed from the seismicity is at least a factor of 10 lower than from plate models and from other convergence estimates and primarily aseismic slip is suggested the fault motions as a function of time computed from the seismicity records have also been plotted and compared to the longterm average rates the plots permit estimates of the minimum present accumulated elastic strain and show if there are any temporal relations among earthquake displacements on different fault zones

a silent slip event on the deeper cascadia subduction interface continuous global positioning system sites in southwestern british columbia canada and northwestern washington state usa have been moving landward as a result of the locked state of the cascadia subduction fault offshore in the summer of 1999 a cluster of seven sites briefly reversed their direction of motion no seismicity was associated with this event the sudden displacements are best explained by 2 centimeters of aseismic slip over a 50 kilometer by 300 kilometer area on the subduction interface downdip from the seismogenic zone a rupture equivalent to an earthquake of moment magnitude 6 7 this provides evidence that slip of the hotter plastic part of the subduction interface and hence stress loading of the megathrust earthquake zone can occur in discrete pulses