a first look at the structure of the wave pouch during the 2009 predict grip dry runs over the atlantic abstractin support of the national science foundation pre depression investigation of cloud systems in the tropics nsf predict and national aeronautics and space administration genesis and rapid intensification processes nasa grip dry run exercises and national oceanic and atmospheric administration hurricane intensity forecast experiment noaa ifex during the 2009 hurricane season a real time wave tracking algorithm and corresponding diagnostic analyses based on a recently proposed tropical cyclogenesis model were applied to tropical easterly waves over the atlantic the model emphasizes the importance of a lagrangian recirculation region within a tropical wave critical layer the so called pouch where persistent deep convection and vorticity aggregation as well as column moistening are favored for tropical cyclogenesis distinct scenarios of hybrid wave vortex evolution are highlighted it was found that easterly waves without a pouch or with a shallow pouch did not develop although not all wav

the multiple vortex nature of tropical cyclogenesis abstract this study explores the extent to which potential vorticity pv generation and superposition were relevant on a variety of scales during the genesis of tropical storm allison allison formed close to shore and the combination of continuous doppler radar satellite aircraft and surface observations allows for the examination of tropical cyclogenesis in great detail preceding allison s genesis pv superposition on the large scale created an environment where decreased vertical shear and increased instability surface fluxes and low level cyclonic vorticity coexisted this presented a favorable environment for meso scale pv production by widespread convection and led to the formation of surface based meso scale vortices termed convective burst vortices cbvs the cbvs seemed to form in association with intense bursts of convection and rotated around each other within the meso circulation field one cbv eventually superposed with a mesoscale convective vortex mcv resulting in a mor

african easterly wave variability and its relationship to atlantic tropical cyclone activity abstract automatic tracking of vorticity centers in european centre for medium range weather forecasts analyses has been used to develop a 20 yr climatology of african easterly wave activity the tracking statistics at 600 and 850 mb confirm the complicated easterly wave structures present over the african continent the rainy zone equatorward of 15 n is dominated by 600 mb activity and the much drier saharan region poleward of 15 n is more dominated by 850 mb activity over the atlantic ocean there is just one storm track with the 600 and 850 mb wave activity collocated based on growth decay and genesis statistics it appears that the 850 mb waves poleward of 15 n over land generally do not get involved with the equatorward storm track over the ocean instead there appears to be significant development of 850 mb activity at the west african coast in the rainy zone around 10 n 10 w which it is proposed is associated with latent heat release based on the tracking statistics it has been shown th

genesis of hurricane julia 2010 within an african easterly wave developing and nondeveloping members from wrf letkf ensemble forecasts abstractin this study the predictability of and parametric differences in the genesis of hurricane julia 2010 are investigated using 20 mesoscale ensemble forecasts with the finest resolution of 1 km results show that the genesis of julia is highly predictable with all but two members undergoing genesis despite the high predictability substantial parametric differences exist between the stronger and weaker members notably the strongest developing member exhibits large upper tropospheric warming within a storm scale outflow during genesis in contrast the nondeveloping member has weak and more localized warming due to inhibited convective development and a lack of a storm scale outflow a reduction in the rossby radius of deformation in the strongest member aids in the accumulation of the warmth while little contraction takes place in the nondeveloping member the warming in the upper troposphere is responsible for the development of meso scale surface pressure falls and a meso surface low i

the role of vortical hot towers in the formation of tropical cyclone diana 1984 abstract a high resolution 3 km horizontal grid spacing near cloud resolving numerical simulation of the formation of hurricane diana 1984 is used to examine the contribution of deep convective processes to tropical cyclone formation this study is focused on the 3 km horizontal grid spacing simulation because this simulation was previously found to furnish an accurate forecast of the later stages of the observed storm life cycle the numerical simulation reveals the presence of vortical hot towers or cores of deep cumulonimbus convection possessing strong vertical vorticity that arise from buoyancy induced stretching of local absolute vertical vorticity in a vorticity rich prehurricane environment at near cloud resolving scales these vortical hot towers are the preferred mode of convection they are demonstrated to be the most important influence to the formation of the tropical storm via a two stage evolutionary process i preconditioning of the local environment via diabatic production of mul

a global view of equatorial waves and tropical cyclogenesis abstractthis study investigates the number of tropical cyclone formations that can be attributed to the enhanced convection from equatorial waves within each basin tropical depression td type disturbances i e easterly waves were the primary tropical cyclone precursors over the northern hemisphere basins particularly the eastern north pacific and the atlantic in the southern hemisphere however the number of storms attributed to td type disturbances and equatorial rossby waves were roughly equivalent equatorward of 20 n tropical cyclones formed without any equatorial wave precursor most often over the eastern north pacific and least often over the western north pacific the madden julian oscillation mjo was an important tropical cyclone precursor over the north indian south indian and western north pacific basins the mjo also affected tropical cyclogenesis by modulating the amplitudes of higher frequency waves each wave type reached the attribution threshold 1 5 times more often and tropi

case study of an intense african easterly wave abstract the life cycle of an intense african easterly wave aew over the african continent is examined using european centre for medium range weather forecasts ecmwf operational analyses meteosat satellite images and synoptic observations this system the strongest aew of 2000 can be tracked from central north africa into the eastern atlantic ocean where it is associated with the genesis of hurricane alberto synoptic analysis of the kinematic and thermodynamic fields is supplemented by analysis of potential vorticity pv allowing exploration at the role of multiple scales in the evolution of this aew the authors analysis promotes the division of the aew life cycle into three distinctive phases i initiation the aew development is preceded by a large convective event composed of several mesoscale convective systems over elevated terrain in sudan this convection provides a forcing on the baroclinically and barotropically unstable state that exists over tropical north africa ii baroclini

genesis of hurricane julia 2010 within an african easterly wave low level vortices and upper level warming abstractwhile a robust theoretical framework for tropical cyclogenesis tcg within african easterly waves aews has recently been developed little work explores the development of low level meso scale vortices llvs and a meso scale surface low in relation to deep convection and upper tropospheric warming in this study the development of an llv into hurricane julia 2010 is shown through a high resolution model simulation with the finest grid size of 1 km the results presented expand upon the connections between llvs and the aew presented in previous studies while demonstrating the importance of upper tropospheric warming for tcg it is found that the significant intensification phase of hurricane julia is triggered by the pronounced upper tropospheric warming associated with organized deep convection the warming is able to intensify and expand during tcg owing to formation of a storm scale outflow beyond the rossby radius of deformation results confirm previous ideas by demonstrating that th

transformation of a large monsoon depression to a tropical storm during tcm 93 abstract data obtained during two aircraft observing periods aop from the tcm 93 mini field experiment are used to describe the transformation between 5 and 10 n of a large depression in the western north pacific monsoon trough into a tropical cyclone over a 36 h period the transformation is defined to occur in three stages although a large mesoscale convective system mcs was present along the eastern periphery of the monsoon depression during the preorganization stage characterized by observations from the first aop the overall convective organization of the broad circulation is weak the structure of the mcs provided a midlevel subsynoptic contribution to the vorticity of the monsoon depression and contributed to a shift in the center of the monsoon depression circulation between 800 and 600 mb toward the mcs location however the presence of unsaturated downdrafts associated with the mcs perturbed the low level thermodynamic conditions and contributed to the rapid decay of the mcs slow intens

genesis of tropical storm eugene 2005 from merging vortices associated with itcz breakdowns part ii roles of vortex merger and ambient potential vorticity abstract in this study the roles of merging midlevel mesoscale convective vortices mcvs and convectively generated potential vorticity pv patches embedded in the intertropical convergence zone itcz in determining tropical cyclogenesis are examined by calculating pv and absolute vorticity budgets with a cloud resolving simulation of tropical storm eugene 2005 results show that the vortex merger occurs as the gradual capture of small scale pv patches within a slow drifting mcv by another fast moving mcv thus concentrating high pv near the merger s circulation center with its peak amplitude located slightly above the melting level the merging phase is characterized by sharp increases in surface heat fluxes low level convergence latent heat release and upward motion lower tropospheric pv surface pressure falls and growth of cyclonic vorticity from the bottom upward melting and freezing appear to affect markedly the vertical structures of diabatic heating convergence absolute vorticity

numerical simulation of the meso β scale structure and evolution of the 1977 johnstown flood part ii inertially stable warm core vortex and the mesoscale convective complex abstract a mesoscale warm core vortex associated with the mesoscale convective complex mcc that produced the 1977 johnstown flood is examined using a three dimensional nested grid model simulation of the flood episode in the simulation the vortex plays a key role in determining the evolution of the mcc a squall line and the distribution of heavy precipitation the vortex has a space scale of 100 200 km in diameter and a time scale of more than 18 hours its low pressure center extends from the midtroposphere down to the surface and its maximum vorticity occurs between 850 and 700 mb a pool of cool moist downdraft air develops in the surface to the 850 mb layer beneath the warm core while a cold dome forms in the vicinity of the tropopause above the warm core following forcing from repeated deep convection prior to model initial time the vortex is initiated by mesoscale ascent associated with a traveling meso scale wave genesis takes place in a nearly saturated slightly conditionally unstabl

synoptic scale influence of the saharan air layer on tropical cyclogenesis over the eastern atlantic abstract the formations of hurricane andrew tropical storm ernesto and hurricane luis which occurred respectively during the 1992 1994 and 1995 hurricane seasons over the eastern atlantic have been investigated by utilizing the european centre for medium range weather forecasts ecmwf gridded data analyses these cases were selected to illustrate the contrasting influences of the saharan air layer sal on tropical cyclogenesis analyses results show that tropical storm ernesto 1994 and hurricane luis 1995 formed from the merger of the low level 925 hpa and midlevel 700 hpa vortices over the eastern atlantic within the monsoon trough enhanced by surges in the trades midlevel vortices associated with each case appear to evolve from african wave troughs enhanced by cyclonic shear vorticity of the midtropospheric jet which existed to the south of an sal anticyclonic eddy as an elongated wind maximum vorticity budget calculations suggest that vortex stretching dominated the enhancement of

convective contribution to the genesis of hurricane ophelia 2005 abstract the convection occurring in the tropical depression that became hurricane ophelia 2005 was investigated just prior to tropical storm formation doppler radar showed a deep wide intense convective cell of a type that has been previously thought to occur in intensifying tropical depressions but has not heretofore been documented in detail the updraft of the cell was 10 km wide 17 km deep had updrafts of 10 20 m s 1 throughout its mid to upper levels and contained a cyclonic vorticity maximum the massive convective updraft was maintained by strong positive buoyancy which was maximum at about the 10 km level probably aided by latent heat of freezing evaporative cooling and precipitation drag occurred in the rain shower of the cell but were insufficient to produce a strong downdraft or gust front outflow to force the updraft the convective updraft was fed by a layer of strong inflow that was several kilometers deep wind induced turbulence just above the ocean surface enriched the equi

genesis of typhoon chanchu 2006 from a westerly wind burst associated with the mjo part i evolution of a vertically tilted precursor vortex abstract although previous studies have shown the relationship between the madden julian oscillation mjo and tropical cyclogenesis tcg many scale interactive processes leading to tcg still remain mysterious in this study the larger scale flow structures and evolution during the pregenesis genesis and intensification of typhoon chanchu 2006 near the equator are analyzed using ncep s final analysis satellite observations and 11 day nested numerical simulations with the advanced research weather research and forecast model arw wrf results show that the model could reproduce the structures and evolution of a synoptic westerly wind burst wwb associated with the mjo during the genesis of chanchu including the eastward progression of a wwb from the indian ocean into the pacific ocean the modulation of the associated quasi symmetric vortices the initial slow spinup of a northern pre chanchu disturbance at the northeastern periphery of the wwb and its general track and intensification it i

limitation of the predominant period estimator for earthquake early warning and the initial rupture of earthquakes abstract we investigate the characteristics and limitations of the parameter p t which represents the predominant period of the p wave we analyze the effects of the length of the time window tw low pass filter and anelastic attenuation as well as the complexity of the source process to elucidate whether values of or the time dependent maximum value of p t have direct relationships to the physical quantities of earthquakes we find that values of have upper and lower limits for larger earthquakes with source durations longer than the tw the values of have an upper limit that depends on the tw on the other hand the values for smaller earthquakes have a lower limit that is proportional to the sampling interval for intermediate earthquakes the values of are close to their typical source durations and can have a large variety due to the complexity of the source process these two limits and the slope for intermediate earthquakes yield an apparent final size dependence of in a wide magnitude range as a result the dependence of on the final size of earthquakes does not suggest that the final size of an earthquake is controlled by processes in the initial part of rupture it is impossible to conclude whether the earthquake is deterministic or not from the dependence of on the final size of earthquakes this is because does not always have a direct relation to the physical quantities of earthquakes

thermodynamic aspects of tropical cyclone formation abstractthe thermodynamic aspects of tropical cyclone tc formation near the center of the wave pouch a region of approximately closed lagrangian circulation within the wave critical layer are examined through diagnoses of a high resolution numerical simulation and dropsonde data from a recent field campaign it is found that the meso area near the pouch center is characterized by high saturation fraction small difference in equivalent potential temperature e between the surface and the middle troposphere and a short incubation time scale updrafts tend to be more vigorous in this region presumably because of reduced dry air entrainment while downdrafts are not suppressed the thermodynamic conditions near the pouch center are thus critically important for tc formation the balanced responses to convective and stratiform heating at the pregenesis stage are examined using the sawyer eliassen equation deep convection is concentrated near the pouch center the strong radial and vertical gradients o

tropical storm development from african easterly waves in the eastern atlantic a comparison of two successive waves using a regional model as part of nasa amma 2006 abstract two successive african easterly waves aews from august 2006 are analyzed utilizing observational data the european centre for medium range weather forecasts reanalysis and output from the national center for atmospheric research national oceanic and atmospheric administration weather research and forecasting model wrf to understand why the first wave does not develop over the eastern atlantic while the second wave does the first aew eventually forms hurricane ernesto over the caribbean sea but genesis does not occur over the eastern atlantic the second wave although weaker than the first over land leaves the west african coast and quickly intensifies into tropical storm debby west of the cape verde islands this study shows that the environmental conditions associated with the first aew s passage inhibited development these conditions include strong low and midtropospheric vertical wind shear owing to a stronger than normal african easterly jet lower than normal relative humidity a

a vortical hot tower route to tropical cyclogenesis abstract a nonhydrostatic cloud model is used to examine the thermomechanics of tropical cyclogenesis under realistic meteorological conditions observations motivate the focus on the problem of how a midtropospheric cyclonic vortex a frequent by product of mesoscale convective systems during summertime conditions over tropical oceans may be transformed into a surface concentrated warm core tropical depression as a first step the vortex transformation is studied in the absence of vertical wind shear or zonal flow within the cyclonic vorticity rich environment of the mesoscale convective vortex mcv embryo the simulations demonstrate that small scale cumulonimbus towers possessing intense cyclonic vorticity in their cores vortical hot towers vhts emerge as the preferred coherent structures the vhts acquire their vertical vorticity through a combination of tilting of mcv horizontal vorticity and stretching of mcv and vht generated vertical vorticity horizontally localized and exhibiting conve

tropical cyclogenesis associated with rossby wave energy dispersion of a preexisting typhoon part i satellite data analyses abstract the structure and evolution characteristics of rossby wave trains induced by tropical cyclone tc energy dispersion are revealed based on the quick scatterometer quikscat and tropical rainfall measuring mission trmm microwave imager tmi data among 34 cyclogenesis cases analyzed in the western north pacific during 2000 01 typhoon seasons six cases are associated with the rossby wave energy dispersion of a preexisting tc the wave trains are oriented in a northwest southeast direction with alternating cyclonic and anticyclonic vorticity circulation a typical wavelength of the wave train is about 2500 km the tc genesis is observed in the cyclonic circulation region of the wave train possibly through a scale contraction process the satellite data analyses reveal that not all tcs have a rossby wave train in their wakes the occurrence of the rossby wave train depends to a certain extent on the tc intensity and the background flow whether or not a rossby wave train can finally lead to cy

tropical cyclogenesis associated with rossby wave energy dispersion of a preexisting typhoon part ii numerical simulations abstract the cyclogenesis events associated with the tropical cyclone tc energy dispersion are simulated in a 3d model a new tc with realistic dynamic and thermodynamic structures forms in the wake of a preexisting tc when a large scale monsoon gyre or a monsoon shear line flow is present maximum vorticity generation appears in the planetary boundary layer pbl and the vorticity growth exhibits an oscillatory development this oscillatory growth is also seen in the observed rainfall and cloud top temperature fields the diagnosis of the model output shows that the oscillatory development is attributed to the discharge and recharge of the pbl moisture and its interaction with convection and circulation the moisture convection feedback regulates the tc development through controlling the atmospheric stratification raindrop induced evaporative cooling and downdraft pbl divergence and vorticity generation on one hand ascending motion associated with deep convection transports moisture upward and le

genesis of pre hurricane felix 2007 part i the role of the easterly wave critical layer abstract the formation of pre hurricane felix 2007 in a tropical easterly wave is examined in a two part study using the weather research and forecasting wrf model with a high resolution nested grid configuration that permits the representation of cloud system processes the simulation commences during the wave stage of the precursor african easterly wave disturbance here the simulated and observed developments are compared while in part ii of the study various large scale analyses physical parameterizations and initialization times are explored to document model sensitivities in this first part the authors focus on the wave vortex morphology its interaction with the adjacent intertropical convergence zone complex and the vorticity balance in the neighborhood of the developing storm analysis of the model simulation points to a bottom up development process within the wave critical layer and supports the three new hypotheses of tropical cyclone formation proposed recently by dunkerton montgome

oceanic cyclogenesis as induced by a mesoscale convective system moving offshore part ii genesis and thermodynamic transformation abstract the genesis of intense cyclonic vorticity in the boundary layer and the transformation of a low level cold pool to a warm core anomaly associated with the long lived mesoscale convective systems mcss which produced the july 1977 johnstown flash flood and later developed into a tropical storm are examined using a 90 h real data simulation of the evolution from a continental mcs vortex to an oceanic cyclone storm system it is shown that the midlevel vortex trough at the end of the continental mcs s life cycle is characterized by a warm anomaly above and a cold anomaly below the mesovortex as it drifts toward the warm gulf stream water plays an important role in initiating and organizing a new mcs and a cyclonic shear vorticity band at the southern periphery of the previously dissipated mcs it is found from the vorticity budget that the vorticity band is amplified through stretching of absolute vorticity as it is wrapped around in a slantwise manner toward the cyclone center then the as

the genesis of hurricane guillermo texmex analyses and a modeling study abstract the transformation of a mesoscale convective system into hurricane guillermo was captured by aircraft and doppler wind data during the tropical experiment in mexico the early phase of the system evolves in a way very similar to previously documented mesoscale convective systems with a midlevel mesocyclone developing in the stratiform precipitation region more unusually the cyclone extends to low altitudes a weak cyclone is discernable even in the 300 m altitude wind field after another day of evolution a small surface based warm core cyclone is observed to develop within the relatively cold air associated with the mesocyclone aloft this mesocyclone develops into a hurricane over the subsequent day a nonhydrostatic axisymmetric numerical model is used to explore the evolution of the initially cold core midlevel vortex into a tropical cyclone a mesoscale midlevel showerhead is switched on in an initially quiescent tropical atmosphere overlying a warm ocean surface evaporation of t

analysis of african easterly wave structures and their role in influencing tropical cyclogenesis abstract composite structures of african easterly waves aews that develop into named tropical cyclones in the atlantic are compared and contrasted with nondeveloping aews using the 40 yr ecmwf re analysis era 40 data and satellite brightness temperature between 1979 and 2001 developing aews are characterized by a more distinctive cold core structure two days before reaching the west african coast as they move westward the convective activity increases further in the vicinity of the guinea highlands region at the same time the aew trough increases its vorticity at low levels consistent with a transformation toward a more warm core structure before it reaches the ocean as the aew moves over the ocean convection is maintained in the trough consistent with the observed tropical cyclogenesis the nondeveloping aew has a similar evolution before reaching the coast except that the amplitudes are weaker and there is less convective activity in the guinea highlands region the nondeveloping aew composite

kinematic shock sensitivity analysis a series of numerical experiments is performed to determine the flow and channel characteristics that are most conducive to kinematic wave steepening and associated kinematic shock phenomena relevant flow and channel characteristics are identified at the outset and a program of 80 computer runs is completed varying the inflow hydrograph peak froude number time to peak and base to peak flow ratio and the channel cross sectional shape it is found that all have a definite effect on kinematic shock development the size of the wave is perhaps mostly responsible for the occurrence or nonoccurrence of the shock

scale interactions during the formation of typhoon irving the development of typhoon irving is investigated using a variety of data including special research aircraft data from the tropical cyclone motion tcm 92 experiment objective analyses satellite data and traditional surface and sounding data the development process is treated as a dry adiabatic vortex dynamics problem and it is found that environmental and mesoscale dynamics mutually enhance each other in a cooperative interaction during cyclone formation synoptic scale interactions result in the evolution of the hostile environment toward more favorable conditions for storm development mesoscale interactions with the low level large scale circulations and with other midlevel mesoscale features result in development of vorticity in the midlevels and enhancement of the low level vorticity associated with the developing surface cyclone multiple developments of mesoscale convective systems after the storm reaches tropical depression strength suggests both an increase in low level confluence and a tendency toward recurrent development of associated mesoscale convective vortices this is observed in both aircraft data and satellite imagery where subsequent interactions including mergers with the low level tropical depression vortex are observed a contour dynamics experiment suggests that the movement of mesoscale convective systems in satellite imagery corresponds well to the movement of their associated midlevel vortices results from a simple baroclinic experiment show that the midlevel vortices affect the large scale low level circulation in two ways 1 initially interactions between midlevel vortices produce a combined vortex of greater depth 2 interaction between midlevel vortices and the low level circulation produces a development downward of the midlevel vorticity this strengthens the surface vortex and develops a more cohesive vortex that extends from the surface through the midtroposphere

numerical study of convection observed during the winter monsoon experiment using a mesoscale two dimensional model abstract a two dimensional version of the pennsylvania state university mesoscale model has been applied to winter monsoon experiment data in order to simulate the diurnally occurring convection observed over the south china sea the domain includes a representation of part of borneo as well as the sea so that the model can simulate the initiation of convection also included in the model are parameterizations of mesoscale ice phase and moisture processes and longwave and shortwave radiation with a diurnal cycle this allows use of the model to test the relative importance of various heating mechanisms to the stratiform cloud deck which typically occupies several hundred kilometers of the domain frank and cohen s cumulus parameterization scheme is employed to represent vital unresolved vertical transports in the convective area the major conclusions are ice phase processes are important in determining the level of maximum large scale heating and vertical motion because there is a strong anvil componen