the infiltration of fine matrices into coarse grained alluvial sediments and its implications for stratigraphical interpretation traps designed to simulate the framework gravel of natural streams and installed in a coarse grained channel allow the identification and differentiation of the processes governing the infiltration of fines into bed interstices vertical patterns of matrix distribution reflect the relative importance of variables acting at both the surface of the channel bed and within the bed sediments differences in grain size and therefore pore size of the framework exercise a strong controlling influence an armour layer of coarse particles superimposed on comparatively finer sub surface bed material common to many coarse grained rivers is shown to encourage the clogging of near surface pores with matrix fines below the obstruction interstices may be protected from incursion and the gravel framework is often left open this is the reason for patchy concentrations of matrices often reported in the stratigraphical literature in contrast a uniform size grading of the bed sediment or an upwards fining leads to a more uniform packing of the interstices with matrix flood history is shown to be an important determinant of both the size distribution and the spatial distribution of matrices and is useful in providing a dynamic explanation of the variability of matrices observed from place to place in ancient deposits

response of seismicity to static and dynamic stress changes induced by the 2011 m9 0 tohoku oki earthquake 1 a growing body of evidence indicates that many earthquakes are triggered by static and dynamic stress changes following large earthquakes however it has been difficult to differentiate the roles of static and dynamic stress transfer on earthquake triggering here we focus on two adjacent seismic clusters aligned e w beneath the hida mountain range central japan where spatially uniform static and dynamic stress changes resulted from the tohoku oki earthquake the rate of seismicity in the western cluster detected by the matched filter technique showed a slight increase after the mainshock which can be explained by static stress transfer in contrast seismicity in the eastern cluster showed a marked increase due to dynamic stress change the difference in the number of triggered events between these clusters indicates that dynamic stress change is more important than the static one in terms of remote triggering provided that large sized potential earthquake nucleation patches are close to failure

seismic evidence for an earthquake nucleation phase near source observations show that earthquakes initiate with a distinctive seismic nucleation phase that is characterized by a low rate of moment release relative to the rest of the event this phase was observed for the 30 earthquakes having moment magnitudes 2 6 to 8 1 and the size and duration of this phase scale with the eventual size of the earthquake during the nucleation phase moment release was irregular and appears to have been confined to a limited region of the fault it was characteristically followed by quadratic growth in the moment rate as rupture began to propagate away from the nucleation zone these observations suggest that the nucleation process exerts a strong influence on the size of the eventual earthquake

differential bedload transport rates in a gravel bed stream a grain size distribution approach the grain size distributions of bedload gravels in oak creek oregon follow the ideal rosin distribution at flow stages which exceed that necessary to initiate breakup of the pavement in the bed material the distributions systematically vary with flow discharge and bed stress such that at higher flow stages the grain sizes are coarser while the spread of the distribution decreases a differential bedload transport function for individual grain size fractions is formulated utilizing the dependence of the two parameters in the rosin distribution on the flow stress the total transport rate which is also a function of the flow stress is apportioned within the rosin grain size distribution to yield the fractional transport rates the derived bedload function has the advantage of yielding smooth continuous frequency distributions of transport rates for the grain size fractions in contrast to the discrete transport functions which predict rates for specified sieve fractions successful reproduction of the measured fractional transport rates and bedload grain size distributions in oak creek by this approach demonstrates its potential for evaluations of transport rates of size fractions in gravel bed streams the approach will be useful in investigations of downstream changes in bed material grain size distributions

three dimensional boundary integral modeling of spontaneous earthquake sequences and aseismic slip 1 fault processes involve complex patterns of seismic events and aseismic slip this work develops a three dimensional 3 d methodology for simulating long term history of spontaneous seismic and aseismic slip on a vertical planar strike slip fault subjected to slow tectonic loading our approach reproduces all stages of earthquake cycles from accelerating slip before dynamic instability to rapid dynamic propagation of earthquake rupture to postseismic slip and to interseismic creep including aseismic transients we use the developed 3 d methodology to study interaction of fault slip with a small patch of higher normal stress over long term slip history for uniform initial prestress dynamic rupture is significantly affected by the stronger patch in the first simulated event but not in subsequent ones the change in behavior is due to redistribution of shear stress by prior slip which demonstrates that distributions of fault strength and stress are related and illustrates the importance of simulating long slip histories even in studies of dynamic rupture despite no long term effect on dynamic rupture the small patch of higher normal stress influences nucleation processes and hence long term slip patterns in the model comparison of the fully dynamic simulations and a widely used quasi dynamic approach shows that the quasi dynamic approach modifies long term slip patterns in addition to resulting in much smaller slip velocities and rupture speeds during dynamic events we show that the response of quasi dynamic formulations with reduced radiation damping terms can be scaled to match the results of the standard quasi dynamic formulation and hence cannot improve the comparison

a slower fault may produce a smaller preseismic moment rate non 1 tf acceleration of moment rate during nucleation and dependency on the background slip rate 1 a recent global study has revealed that seismicity near the hypocenter prior to large earthquakes which could be a proxy for preseismic moment rate accelerates before interplate earthquakes while it rarely does before intraplate earthquakes understanding the amplitude of preseismic deformation is important in assessing the possibility of its detection for a class of rate state friction laws without a characteristic speed related parameter e g aging law and slip law a dimensional analysis has shown that if the moment rate increases more mildly than 1 tf where tf is the time to failure then the amplitude of preseismic moment rate is smaller for a smaller quasistatic slip rate three dimensional numerical simulations have revealed that the aging law yields 1 tf acceleration while the slip law causes milder acceleration if the latter is the case faults with very low long term slip rates e g intraplate faults may have very small preseismic moment rates

the frictional hydrologic metamorphic and thermal habitat of shallow slow earthquakes slow earthquakes have recently been discovered on the shallow parts of some subduction zones a review of the conditions under which these quakes form reveals that they could be common in most subduction zones globally

propagation of slow slip leading up to the 2011 mw 9 0 tohoku oki earthquake many large earthquakes are preceded by one or more foreshocks but it is unclear how these foreshocks relate to the nucleation process of the mainshock on the basis of an earthquake catalog created using a waveform correlation technique we identified two distinct sequences of foreshocks migrating at rates of 2 to 10 kilometers per day along the trench axis toward the epicenter of the 2011 moment magnitude mw 9 0 tohoku oki earthquake in japan the time history of quasi static slip along the plate interface based on small repeating earthquakes that were part of the migrating seismicity suggests that two sequences involved slow slip transients propagating toward the initial rupture point the second sequence which involved large slip rates may have caused substantial stress loading prompting the unstable dynamic rupture of the mainshock

earthquake source nucleation a physical model for short term precursors abstract ohnaka m 1992 earthquake source nucleation a physical model for short term precursors in t mikumo k aki m ohnaka l j ruff and p k p spudich editors earthquake source physics and earthquake precursors tectonophysics 211 149 178 this paper deals with a quasistatic leading to a quasidynamic at a later time nucleation process that precedes the earthquake dynamic rupture and models of the earthquake source nucleation are put forward based on physical principles a quasistatic to quasidynamic rupture nucleation process is an intrinsic part of the ensuing earthquake dynamic rupture in other words the nucleation process itself is an short term or immediate precursor that occurs in a localized zone during the earthquake nucleation premonitory slip proceeds in the localized nucleation zone and shear stress also decreases gradually in the zone since slip weakening occurs during the nucleation immediate foreshock activity is a part of the nucleation process leading to the mainshock dynamic rupture therefore hypocentral locations of foreshocks are necessarily restricted to lie near the mainshock hypocentre onset of the mainshock rupture whether or not foreshocks occur during the mainshock nucleation depends on how the rupture growth resistance varies on a local to small scale since patches of greater rupture growth resistance are considered to prevail on a local to small scale in the fault zone carrying immediate foreshocks would be one of the major characteristics of earthquakes that nucleate within the brittle seismogenic layer when a mainshock earthquake nucleates within the brittle seismogenic layer and its hypocentre is located near the base of the seismogenic layer immediate foreshocks for this mainshock are necessarily restricted to lie within a localized region shallower than hypocentral depth of the mainshock by contrast the nucleation process below the base of the seismogenic layer is aseismic in nature so that carrying no conspicuous foreshocks would be a common characteristic of interplate earthquakes that nucleate below the base of the brittle seismogenic layer the breakdown strength p the breakdown stress drop b and the critical slip displacement dc are indicative of the rupture growth resistance to estimate depth variations of these parameters the effects of the normal stress n and temperature t on those parameters are examined using available data so far published the combined effects of n and t on p in the brittle to semibrittle regime are found to be represented empirically by p n t po n 1 cosh 50 t 40 sinh 50 t exp 2000 t where po n 135 7 0 750 n and t is measured in k and n in mpa it is found that dc increases sharply with t but is insensitive to n above 300 c while dc depends on n but is insensitive to t below 300 c on the basis of these results variations in p dc and b at mid crustal depths are estimated for quartzo feldspathic rocks for a given geothermal gradient

triggering of the 2014 mw7 3 papanoa earthquake by a slow slip event in guerrero mexico since their discovery two decades ago slow slip events have been shown to play an important role in accommodating strain in subduction zones however the physical mechanisms that generate slow slip and the relationships with earthquakes are unclear slow slip events have been recorded in the guerrero segment of the cocos north america subduction zone here we use inversion of position time series recorded by a continuous gps network to reconstruct the evolution of aseismic slip on the subduction interface of the guerrero segment we find that a slow slip event began in february 2014 two months before the magnitude m w 7 3 papanoa earthquake on 18 april the slow slip event initiated in a region adjacent to the earthquake hypocentre and extended into the vicinity of the seismogenic zone this spatio temporal proximity strongly suggests that the papanoa earthquake was triggered by the ongoing slow slip event we demonstrate that the triggering mechanism could be either static stress increases in the hypocentral region as revealed by coulomb stress modelling or enhanced weakening of the earthquake hypocentral area by the slow slip we also show that the plate interface in the guerrero area is highly coupled between slow slip events and that most of the accumulated strain is released aseismically during the slow slip episodes

intense foreshocks and a slow slip event preceded the 2014 iquique mw 8 1 earthquake the subduction zone in northern chile is a well identified seismic gap that last ruptured in 1877 the moment magnitude mw 8 1 iquique earthquake of 1 april 2014 broke a highly coupled portion of this gap to understand the seismicity preceding this event we studied the location and mechanisms of the foreshocks and computed global positioning system gps time series at stations located on shore seismicity off the coast of iquique started to increase in january 2014 after 16 march several mw 6 events occurred near the low coupled zone these events migrated northward for 50 kilometers until the 1 april earthquake occurred on 16 march on shore continuous gps stations detected a westward motion that we model as a slow slip event situated in the same area where the mainshock occurred

spatial and temporal patterns of iceberg rafting ird along the east greenland margin ca 68 n over the last 14 cal ka twelve 1 2 m 10 cm diameter gravity cores collected in 1988 and 1991 from the continental shelf and fjords of east greenland near kangerlussuaq fjord trough ca 68 n 32 w have distinct changes in lithofacies and in the quantity of iceberg rafted ird sediments these changes are readily observed in x radiographs of the split cores we quantify the ird contribution through grain size analyses and counting the number of clasts 2 mm from the x radiographs chronological control is provided by acclerated mass spectroscopy 14c dates on foraminifera during deglaciation after 14 cal ka there was one interval of ird accumulation ca 12 13 cal ka followed by a brief return to ird conditions centred at 9 cal ka thereafter a prominent feature of most cores on the shelf is an increase in ird accumulation that started ca 5 6 cal ka and which has increased toward the present indicators of iceberg rafting such as the net sand flux and numbers of clasts 2 mm ka 1 follow a power law distribution when graphed against distance from the present east greenland coast a measure of the position of the glacier margins the form of the relationship indicates that there is a dramatic decrease in the supply of sediment from the fjords to the shelf these relationships are used to estimate changes in the location of the ice margin during the late quaternary based on a site on the east greenland slope denmark strait and to discuss factors that can negate such a simple transfer function 1997 by john wiley sons ltd

structure composition and bulk properties of upland stream gravels upland gravel bedded streams in the u k have received only scant attention from both hydrologists and sedimentologists but are worthy of further investigation the sedimentology of three small streams in teesdale in the pennines has been examined in detail grain size characteristics bedforms structure composition and packing characteristics of these deposits are described and compared where appropriate with published information it is argued that a fuller appreciation of gravel bed composition and morphology should eventually contribute to an improved understanding of sediment transport and deposition mechanisms and hence to improved accuracy in sediment transport and deposition estimates

sediment yield studies of headwater catchments in sussex s e england the transport of sediment from six small 0 2 to 17 6 km2 headwater catchments is described the catchments under investigation were located in relation to predominant lithological deposits within the cretaceous rock succession two of the areas were underlain by weald clay two by sandstone ashdown sand and tunbridge wells sand and two by chalk the climate of the region under investigation is temperate with an average annual precipitation 850 mm in excess of potential evapotranspiration 450 mm the transport of suspended material from within the catchments was examined by collecting samples of the water sediment mixture draining the areas using hand held depth integrating and permanently installed stage sampling systems the results of the regularly maintained sampling programme over a two year period are described attempts were made to both measure and compute bed load transport suspended sediment concentrations are compared between catchments and related to hydrological characteristics the nature of the material in transit is examined sediment rating curves are derived for each of the headwater catchments defining the relationship in the form y axb where y suspended sediment concentration mg 1 and x water discharge m3 s annual rating curves are used to derive annual suspended sediment loads by combination with water discharge data using a log incremental computerized approach multiple regression techniques have been used to examine annual loads in terms of hydrological and morphological characteristics of the headwater catchments based on the field information available a generalized model for the relationship between suspended sediment concentration and water discharge is described finally the derived annual loads from the headwater catchments are combined with both limited observations from the larger sussex rivers and data available for other catchment investigations in the british isles to produce a series of prediction equations for catchment yield under temperate climatic conditions

a slow thrust slip event following the two 1996 hyuganada earthquakes beneath the bungo channel southwest japan we report a slow thrust slip event that occurred beneath the bungo channel region southwestern japan on oct and dec 1996 two hyuganada earthquakes both mw 6 7 followed by afterslips occurred in addition a crustal movement characterized by an extremely slow rise was observed around the bungo channel about 200 km north from the epicenters and continued for about 300 days long assuming a slow slip on the plate boundary we estimate its duration and surface displacements from gps time series data by curve fitting and then determine the fault slip distribution we found that a slow slip without any earthquakes continued for nearly one year and released the seismic moment comparable to that of the hyuganada earthquakes occurrence of the slow thrust slip event suggests that this kind of event may be a characteristic mode of stress release at a transition region of interplate coupling

properties of various sediment sampling procedures several issues regarding the sampling and analysis of bed material from gravel bed streams are addressed in this paper the need to convert surface samples into volumetric equivalents and methods to do so are explained it is found that most surface samples are unique and thus are not directly comparable particular attention is paid to areal sampling with clay and with wax the areal to volumetric conversion of samples removed from different sediment structures is also considered criteria are proposed for determining the minimum dimensions of unbiased volumetric samples these criteria can be used to determine the minimum area of an areal sample the minimum depth of a volumetric sample is shown to be larger than the depth of most surface layers thus a surface layer can not be sampled volumetrically a technique is presented for sampling a wide size range of underwater surface particles this technique has been tested in the field and found to provide good results

earthquakes as multiscale dynamic ruptures with heterogeneous fracture surface energy 1 we propose a model of the wide scale growth of dynamic rupture during an earthquake based on our multiscale simulation of a planar crack in a three dimensional homogeneous elastic space a simple slip weakening law governs the fracture friction processes and its characteristic parameters slip weakening distance and fracture surface energy have multiscale heterogeneous distributions we consider a set of randomly distributed circular patches whose diameter is proportional to the fracture surface energy each patch represents an asperity between irregular fault surfaces and the size number relation of the patches obeys power law statistics we assess rupture propagation from a small instability using a boundary integral equation method with a renormalization technique although most events stop shortly after their initiation some grow triggering neighboring patches of similar size small and large events show statistically self similar properties of rupture growth and stop spontaneously without requiring a special stopping mechanism the rupture velocity locally exceeds the shear wave speed but globally remains subshear speed due to the increase of the average fracture energy as the rupture grows the relation between size and frequency of events is a power law which is explained by the triggering probability between patches as a consequence of statistically self similar random triggering growth we observe a distinct main phase in seismic waves similar to those of natural earthquakes but we cannot estimate the final size of the event from the initial part of the seismic waves if this is true for the real earthquakes predicting the size of a future earthquake would be quite difficult

modeling short and long term slow slip events in the seismic cycles of large subduction earthquakes 1 slow slip events sses occur in the deeper extents of areas where large interplate earthquakes are expected in subduction zones such as the nankai region of japan and the cascadia region of north america in the nankai region sses are divided into long and short term sses depending on their duration and recurrence interval we modeled and examined the occurrence of long and short term sses and changes in their behavior during the seismic cycles of large interplate earthquakes in these numerical simulations we adopted a rate and state dependent friction law with cutoff velocities and assumed that the distribution of pore fluid controls the recurrence interval of both long and short term sses the recurrence intervals of reproduced short term sses decrease during a long term sse as observed in western shikoku in the nankai region the recurrence intervals of both types of sses become shorter in the later stages of interseismic periods large interplate earthquakes nucleate between the region where sses occur and the locked region of the large earthquakes as suggested from observations of the 1944 tonankai earthquake our numerical results suggest that the stress buildup process in a seismic cycle affects the recurrence behavior of sses

the non layering of gravel streambeds under ephemeral flood regimes abstract the two layer format common to perennial streambeds in which a relatively coarse armour overlies a finer subarmour develops as a function of both the ingress and subsequent near surface winnowing of interstitial material and the selective non entrainment or slower transport velocity of coarse clasts ephemeral streams appear to lack such vertical layering or are characterized by weak layer development some of this may be due to the degree of mixing associated with the scour and fill process however continuous monitoring of bedload discharge in the nahal yatir in the northern negev desert reveals that sediment transport rates are extremely high so that the chance of armour layer development through selective non entrainment is much reduced indeed a comparison of the bedload and bed material size distributions confirms a high degree of similarity and hints at equal mobility regardless of clast size the monitoring programme also indicates that the bed becomes highly mobile at comparatively modest fluid shear so that practically all floods are associated with high transport rates consequently the winnowing that might be brought about by low transport rate events does not occur even within a single event winnowing is precluded by the rapid nature of flow recession that is so characteristic of flash floods the high degree of bed material mobility is attributable in part to the lack of strength that would otherwise be a corollary of armour development however it also highlights the divergent nature of the feedback loops that govern the relationship between flow and channel deposit in ephemeral and perennial systems

quasi static slip on the plate boundary associated with the 2003 m8 0 tokachi oki and 2004 m7 1 off kushiro earthquakes japan abstract we analyzed small repeating earthquakes recorded over a 13 year period and gps data recorded over an 8 month period to estimate interplate quasi static slip associated with the 2003 tokachi oki earthquake m8 0 and the 2004 off kushiro earthquake m7 1 the repeating earthquake analysis revealed that the slip rate near the source region of the tokachi oki earthquake was relatively low

detection of earthquake swarms at subduction zones globally insights into tectonic controls on swarm activity earthquake swarms are characterized by an increase in seismicity rate that lacks a distinguished mainshock and does not obey omori s law at subduction zones they are thought to be related to slow slip events sses on the plate interface earthquake swarms in subduction zones can therefore be used as potential indicators of slow slip events however the global distribution of earthquake swarms at subduction zones remains unclear here we present a method for detecting such earthquake sequences using the space time epidemic type aftershock sequence etas model we applied this method to seismicity m 4 5 recorded in the anss catalog at subduction zones during the period 1995 2009 we detected 453 swarms which is about 6 7 times the number observed in a previous catalog foreshocks of some large earthquakes are also detected as earthquake swarms in some subduction zones such as at ibaraki oki japan swarm like foreshocks and ordinary swarms repeatedly occur at the same location given that both foreshocks and swarms are related to sses on the plate interface these regions may have experienced recurring sses we then compare the swarm activity and tectonic properties of subduction zones finding that swarm activity is positively correlated with curvature of the incoming plate before subduction this result implies that swarm activity is controlled either by hydration of the incoming plate or by heterogeneity on the plate interface due to fracturing related to slab bending

imaging of the early acceleration phase of the 2013 2014 boso slow slip event we analyze gps and seismic data to examine the spatiotemporal evolution of a slow slip event sse near boso peninsula central japan from december 2013 to january 2014 the evolution of this sse and its associated seismicity is divided into two distinct phases slip initially accelerated slowly with low slip rates low propagation speeds and no accompanying seismicity during the early phase and then accelerated more rapidly with higher slip rates a higher propagation speed and local earthquake swarm activity during the later phase the seismicity was highly correlated in space and time with slip rate suggesting that the swarm activity was triggered by stress loading due to the slow slip the transition from the slow to faster phase shares some similarities with the nucleation of megathrust earthquakes inferred from foreshock activities suggesting that sses may provide insights into the nucleation of large earthquakes

typology of segregated armoured paved surfaces some comments a review of the characteristics of segregated surfaces and consideration of the origins of the terms armoured and paved suggests that the two terms are interchangeable and that neither term is specifically associated with a particular segregation process the dichotomy between segregated surfaces which are formed in channels in which the entire range of bed material is mobile under the prevailing hydrologic regime and segregated surfaces which are intrinsically stable forms the basis of an elementary distinction between different types of segregated surface it is suggested that the term stable armour or stable pavement be applied to those cases where the segregated surface is considered to be inactive under the prevailing hydrologic regime and that the term unstable armour or unstable pavement be applied to cases where the segregated surface experiences periodic mobilization

seismicity rate increases associated with slow slip episodes prior to the 2012 m w 7 4 ometepec earthquake abstract the march 20 2012 m w 7 4 ometepec earthquake in the oaxaca region of southern mexico provides a unique opportunity to examine whether subtle changes in seismicity tectonic tremor or slow slip can be observed prior to a large earthquake that may illuminate changes in stress or background slip rate continuous global positioning system cgps data reveal a 5 month long slow slip event sse between 20 and 35 km depth that migrated toward and reached the vicinity of the mainshock a few weeks prior to the earthquake seismicity in oaxaca is examined using single station tectonic tremor detection and multi station waveform template matching of earthquake families an increase in seismic activity detected with template matching using aftershock waveforms is only observed in the weeks prior to the mainshock in the region between the sse and mainshock in contrast a sse 15 months earlier occurred at 25 40 km depth and was primarily associated with an increase in tectonic tremor together these observations indicate that in the oaxaca region of mexico shallower slow slip promotes elevated seismicity rates and deeper slow slip promotes tectonic tremor results from this study add to a growing number of published accounts that indicate slow slip may be a common pre earthquake signature

earthquake nucleation and fault slip complexity in the lower crust of central alaska earthquakes start under conditions that are largely unknown in laboratory analogue experiments and continuum models earthquakes transition from slow slipping growing nucleation to fast slipping rupture in nature earthquakes generally start abruptly with no evidence for a nucleation process here we report evidence from a strike slip fault zone in central alaska of extended earthquake nucleation and of very low frequency earthquakes vlfes a phenomenon previously reported only in subduction zone environments in 2016 a vlfe transitioned into an earthquake of magnitude 3 7 and was preceded by a 12 hour long accelerating foreshock sequence benefiting from 12 seismic stations deployed within 30 km of the epicentre we identify coincident radiation of distinct high frequency and low frequency waves during 22 s of nucleation the power law temporal growth of the nucleation signal is quantitatively predicted by a model in which high frequency waves are radiated from the vicinity of an expanding slow slip front the observations reveal the continuity and complexity of slip processes near the bottom of the seismogenic zone of a strike slip fault system in central alaska

widespread movement of meltwater onto and across antarctic ice shelves surface water and its drainage across the surface of antarctic ice is shown to be widespread large scale and to have persisted for decades melt ponds and streams form across antarctica but their full extent and the duration of their existence have remained unclear now jonathan kingslake et al show that surface drainage systems including interconnected ponds and streams have existed for decades as far as 85 s and up to 1 300 metres elevation they show that surface water can be transported more than 100 kilometres creating pond networks almost 80 kilometres long although the implications of the findings for ice sheet dynamics are not explored the study demonstrates that surface water drainage is more extensive than previously thought and is probably a persistent feature of the antarctic ice sheet elsewhere in this issue robin bell et al report on the influence of surface meltwater on antarctic ice shelf stability and find that it might not be a universally destructive force as was previously thought surface meltwater drains across ice sheets forming melt ponds that can trigger ice shelf collapse1 2 acceleration of grounded ice flow and increased sea level rise3 4 5 numerical models of the antarctic ice sheet that incorporate meltwater s impact on ice shelves but ignore the movement of water across the ice surface predict a metre of global sea level rise this century5 in response to atmospheric warming6 to understand the impact of water moving across the ice surface a broad quantification of surface meltwater and its drainage is needed yet despite extensive research in greenland7 8 9 10 and observations of individual drainage systems in antarctica10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 we have little understanding of antarctic wide surface hydrology or how it will evolve here we show widespread drainage of meltwater across the surface of the ice sheet through surface streams and ponds hereafter surface drainage as far south as 85 s and as high as 1 300 metres above sea level our findings are based on satellite imagery from 1973 onwards and aerial photography from 1947 onwards surface drainage has persisted for decades transporting water up to 120 kilometres from grounded ice onto and across ice shelves feeding vast melt ponds up to 80 kilometres long large scale surface drainage could deliver water to areas of ice shelves vulnerable to collapse as melt rates increase this century while antarctic surface melt ponds are relatively well documented on some ice shelves we have discovered that ponds often form part of widespread large scale surface drainage systems in a warming climate enhanced surface drainage could accelerate future ice mass loss from antarctic potentially via positive feedbacks between the extent of exposed rock melting and thinning of the ice sheet

scour fill and burial depth of coarse material in gravel bed streams scour fill and burial depths of coarse particles were examined in two ephemeral streams using magnetically tagged particles and scour chains the burial depth varied within a bedform and from one bedform to another the maximum burial depth was recorded in bars but differences in the mean burial depth in the pools bar and thalweg were insignificant mean burial depth was three to six times the median size of material on bar surfaces and ten to thirty times that in the pools and thalweg more than eighty per cent of the tagged particles which were located on or close to the bed surface moved in each event although previously buried particles were moved by flood events others which were initially exposed remained stationary on the surface or were buried in situ the data indicate that the mean burial depth was intermediate between the mean depths of scour and fill deeply buried particles probably reflect the development of scour holes during flood flows aggradation and degradation changed the recorded burial depth relative to the local bed surface of stationary tracer particles these observations indicate that scour and fill processes during a flow event are sporadic and change with water discharge

size selective entrainment of bed load in gravel bed streams entrainment of mixed size gravel bed material was studied in nine reaches of three high power streams in scotland and norway paired measurements of at a point shear stress estimated from velocity profiles and bed load transport by hand held sampler were made they extended to very high values 400 n m 2 3 5 kg m x s x analyses of maximum bed load diameter mean bed load diameter transport rates of individual size fractions and tracer pebble movements all show some dependence of threshold shear stress for entrainment on absolute particle size despite strong relative size effects precise equal mobility of all sizes was approached in the data set with the highest shear stresses and transport rates size selective transport in the streams studied is also indicated by clear downstream and downbar reductions in surface sediment size over distances too short for abrasion to be significant

slow slip events and strain accumulation in the guerrero gap mexico 1 global positioning system gps time series in guerrero mexico reveal the existence of large slow slip events sses at the boundary between the cocos and north american plates in this study we examined the last three sses that occurred in 2001 2002 2006 and 2009 2010 and their impact on the strain accumulation along the guerrero subduction margin gps displacements were inverted to retrieve the slip distribution during each sse and the inter sse coupling of the subduction interface the three analyzed sses have equivalent moment magnitudes of between 7 50 and 7 65 their lateral extents are variable and they all show significant slip in the guerrero seismic gap during the inter sse epochs the interplate coupling is high in the area where slow slip subsequently occurs in the guerrero gap the shallow portion of the plate interface from the trench to the coast is weakly coupled the average slip deficit accumulated in the guerrero gap over a period of 12 years which corresponds to three cycles of sse is only 1 4 of the slip deficit accumulated on both sides of the gap moreover the regions of large slip deficit coincide with the rupture areas of recent large earthquakes we conclude that the sses in the guerrero gap release a significant part of the strain accumulated during the inter sse period if large subduction thrust earthquakes occur in the guerrero gap their recurrence time is probably increased compared to adjacent regions

the slow earthquake spectrum in the japan trench illuminated by the s net seafloor observatories investigating slow earthquake activity in subduction zones provides insight into the slip behavior of megathrusts which can provide important clues about the rupture extent of future great earthquakes using the s net ocean bottom seismograph network along the japan trench we mapped a detailed distribution of tectonic tremors which coincided with very low frequency earthquakes and a slow slip event compiling these and other related observations including repeating earthquakes and earthquake swarms we found that the slow earthquake distribution is complementary to the tohoku oki earthquake rupture we used our observations to divide the megathrust in the japan trench into three along strike segments characterized by different slip behaviors we found that the rupture of the tohoku oki earthquake which nucleated in the central segment was terminated by the two adjacent segments

selective grain entrainment by a current from a bed of mixed sizes a reanalysis the selective entrainment of grains by a current from a bed of mixed sizes and densities is important to grain sorting processes that lead to the formation of placers in sands and to armored beds in gravels existing field and laboratory measurements of selective entrainment depart systematically from the standard threshold curves such as that of shields which are based on experiments with nearly uniform grain sizes entrainment measurements from beds of mixed sizes form trends which obliquely cross the threshold curves for uniform grains the crossing point being roughly at the median diameter of the size distribution due to this crossover the coarser size fractions of the distribution require lower flow stresses for their entrainment than if they formed uniform beds while the finer size fractions require higher stresses than uniform beds with deposits having medians in the range of medium sand through gravel the larger the individual particle within the mixed sizes the greater the flow stress required for its entrainment in this case the smaller grains are preferentially entrained possibly leading to bed armoring in contrast if the median is in the fine to medium sand range the smallest grains in the bed of mixed sizes are the most difficult to entrain due to sheltering by the larger grains where grain density is also involved this sorting can lead to the formation of placers a variety of empirical relationships is considered to quantify the evaluation of selective entrainment from deposits of mixed sizes but no single formulation is satisfactory for all data sets

minimum magnitude of completeness in earthquake catalogs examples from alaska the western united states and japan we mapped the minimum magnitude of complete reporting m c for alaska the western united states and for the junec earthquake catalog of japan mc was estimated based on its departure from the linear frequency magnitude relation of the 250 closest earthquakes to grid nodes spaced 10 km apart in all catalogs studied mc was strongly heterogeneous in offshore areas the mc was typically one unit of magnitude higher than onshore on land also mc can vary by one order of magnitude over distance less than 50 km we recommend that seismicity studies that depend on complete sets of small earthquakes should be limited to areas with similar mc or the minimum magnitude for the analysis has to be raised to the highest com mon value of mc we believe that the data quality as reflected by the mc level should be used to define the spatial extent of seismicity studies where mc plays a role the method we use calculates the goodness of fit between a power law fit to the data and the observed frequency magnitude distribution as a function of a lower cutoff of the magnitude data mc is defined as the magnitude at which 90 of the data can be modeled by a power law fit mc in the 1990s is approximately 1 2 0 4 in most parts of california 1 8 0 4 in most of alaska aleutians and panhandle excluded and at a higher level in the junec catalog for japan various sources such as ex plosions and earthquake families beneath volcanoes can lead to distributions that cannot be fit well by power laws for the hokkaido region we demonstrate how neglecting the spatial variability of m c can lead to erroneous assumptions about deviations from self similarity of earthquake scaling

detection of anomalous seismicity as a stress change sensor 1 anomalous seismicity such as quiescence and activation is defined by a systematic deviation of seismic activity from the predicted rate by the epidemic type aftershock sequence etas model that represents the normal occurrence rate of earthquakes in a region indicating the empirical triggering effect by the previous events the model is fitted to a data set of origin times and magnitudes of earthquakes or aftershocks during may august 2003 in and around northern japan the detected quiescence and activation relative to the predicted seismicity rate are consistent with the coseismic changes of coulomb failure stress cfs in the corresponding regions transferred from certain strong earthquakes few results in this paper agree with the claim that there should be a threshold value of cfs capable of affecting seismic changes thus we expect that significant deviation of actual activity from the predicted rates is sensitive enough to detect a slight stress change furthermore i offer a similar interpretation of the detected seismicity lowering relative to the modeled rates preceding the strong earthquakes assuming some aseismic slips

high pore fluid pressure may cause silent slip in the nankai trough silent slip events have been detected at several subduction zones but the cause of these events is unknown using seismic imaging we detected a cause of the tokai silent slip which occurred at a presumed fault zone of a great earthquake the seismic image that we obtained shows a zone of high pore fluid pressure in the subducted oceanic crust located down dip of a subducted ridge we propose that these structures effectively extend a region of conditionally stable slips and consequently generate the silent slip

crustal earthquake instability in relation to the depth variation of frictional slip properties recent stability studies using constitutive relations of the type found by dieterich ruina and others to describe frictional slip of rocks in the laboratory have provided a new explanation of the depth cutoff of shallow crustal earthquakes the class of friction laws discussed has the property that the sliding stress depends on normal stress temperature slip rate and slip history for sliding at a fixed slip rate v and fixed environment e g normal stress temperature etc the shear strength evolves toward a steady state value ss v stability analysis show that for d ss v dv 0 velocity strengthening implies stable steady state sliding at least for a broad class of constitutive laws more fully described in the paper experiments by dieterich and by tullis and weeks on westerly granite with mature sliding surfaces indicate that d ss v dv is negative at room temperature whereas higher temperature experiments by stesky show that d ss v dv becomes positive above approximately 300 c therefore in the case of the earth where temperature increases with depth the above observations seem to suggest that the depth cutoff of crustal earthquake activity can be understood in terms of the variation of the frictional response with depth from a regime with d ss v dv 0 this is not inconsistent with but rather refines the suggestion by sibson and others that the depth cutoff is due to a transition from brittle friction to ductile flow further our results show definitively that the shallow depth confinement of seismicity is compatible with a model in which deformation is localized to a fault zone extending well below the seismogenic depth the depth confinement does not require a model showing transition to a zone of broadly distributed creep flow beneath the seismogenic zone following mavko a two dimensional quasi static strike slip fault model is analyzed but using different numerical procedures and a depth variation of frictional properties based on the laboratory data mentioned above and the lachenbruch sass depth variation of temperature for the san andreas fault the resulting predictions of such features as the confinement of crustal earthquakes to shallow depths the development of locked patches the recurrence time for the seismic cycle the seismic stress drop and displacement etc are generally in agreement with the observed characteristics of large scale strike slip earthquakes along the san andreas fault calculations based on the laboratory data predict for example that stick slip nucleates around 5 7 km that large seismic motion occurs around the nucleation depth and above but diminishes gradually to zero at 13 15 km depths that rapid postseismic creep occurs over another 3 4 km depth and that at greater depths steady slip consistent with the average plate velocity is only modestly perturbed by the earthquakes occurring above the most uncertain parameter is the slip weakening distance l for evolution of fault surface state we illustrate how features of the predicted earthquake cycles vary with l over the range for which calculations are feasible

hydrogeology and mechanics of subduction zone forearcs fluid flow and pore pressure at subduction zones fluid flow pore pressure and tectonic processes are tightly interconnected excess pore pressure is driven by tectonic loading and fluids released by mineral dehydration and it has profound effects on fault and earthquake mechanics through its control on effective stress the egress of these overpressured fluids which is in part governed by the presence of permeable fault zones is a primary mechanism of volatile and solute transport to the oceans recent field measurements new constraints gained from laboratory studies and numerical modeling efforts have led to a greatly improved understanding of these coupled processes here we summarize the current state of knowledge of fluid flow and pore pressure in subduction forearcs and focus on recent advances that have quantified permeability architecture fluxes the nature and timing of transience and pressure distribution thus providing new insights into the connections between fluid metamorphic mechanical and fault slip proc

periodic slow slip triggers megathrust zone earthquakes in northeastern japan both aseismic and seismic slip accommodate relative motion across partially coupled plate boundary faults in northeastern japan aseismic slip occurs in the form of decelerating afterslip after large interplate earthquakes and as relatively steady slip on uncoupled areas of the subduction thrust here we report on a previously unrecognized quasi periodic slow slip behavior that is widespread in the megathrust zone the repeat intervals of the slow slip range from 1 to 6 years and often coincide with or precede clusters of large magnitude m 5 earthquakes including the 2011 m 9 tohoku oki earthquake these results suggest that inherently periodic slow slip events result in periodic stress perturbations and modulate the occurrence time of larger earthquakes the periodicity in the slow slip rate has the potential to help refine time dependent earthquake forecasts

flow resistance under conditions of intense gravel transport a study of flow resistance was undertaken in a channelized reach of the north fork toutle river downstream of mount st helens washington hydraulic and sediment transport data were collected in flows with velocities up to 3 m s and shear stresses up to 7 times the critical value needed for bed load transport details of the flow structure as revealed in vertical velocity profiles indicate that weak bed load transport over a plane gravel bed has little effect on flow resistance the plane gravel bed persists up to stresses 3 times critical at which point irregular bed forms appear bed forms greatly increase flow resistance and cause velocity profiles to become distorted the latter arises as an effect of flows becoming depth limited as bed form amplitude increases at very high rates of bed load transport an upper stage plane bed appeared velocity profiles measured in these flows match the law of the wall closely with the equivalent roughness being well represented by ks 3d84 of the bed load the effects noted here will be important in very large floods or in rivers that are not free to widen such as those cut into bedrock

iceberg scours pits and pockmarks in the north falkland basin abstract glaciation in the southern hemisphere is limited by the availability of land from which to seed ice sheets the extents of the antarctic patagonian and new zealand ice sheets at the last glacial maximum lgm are relatively well known although the rates and styles of their retreat after the lgm are poorly constrained particularly in antarctica offshore records of glaciation are relatively sparse in the southern hemisphere despite the potential ocean climate insights that can be gained from records of glaciation that are preserved offshore in this study we document the occurrence of iceberg scours and accompanying pits within the north falkland basin c 50 s and discuss their origin the cross sectional shapes of scours are u to v shaped and occur in present day water depths of 280 to 460 m individual scours are up to 38 km long 1 km wide and up to 10 m deep the scours are observed as erosional linear to curvilinear depressions showing only one point of contact between the iceberg and seafloor often with raised berms composed of excavated material identified either side of the main depression undulating width of scours is interpreted as an effect of rotation of the iceberg keel during scour excavation the elongate morphology of the scours differentiates them from asymmetrical pits interpreted to represent iceberg impact pits and symmetrical pockmarks interpreted to form due to fluid expulsion in cross section the differentiation is highly interpretative but the 3d bathymetric expression is unequivocal the sinusoidal character of the scours suggests the interaction between local tidal currents and the east falkland malvinas currents in the north falkland basin at the time of formation offshore and onshore landscape analysis is used to determine potential sources of icebergs and suggests that they were most likely sourced from the antarctic peninsula these results inform our understanding of southern hemisphere ocean climate interactions during the last glacial cycle and suggest that the east falklands malvinas current a key current in the southern hemisphere bringing cold low salinity antarctic derived waters into the south atlantic was in operation during the last glacial cycle the accumulation of icebergs west of the falkland islands would also result in further cooling from fresh meltwater perturbations enhancing the development of a potential ice bridge along the argentinian coast

source parameters of a m4 8 and its accompanying repeating earthquakes off kamaishi ne japan implications for the hierarchical structure of asperities and earthquake cycle 1 we determine the source parameters of a m4 9 0 1 characteristic earthquake sequence and its accompanying microearthquakes at 50 km depth on the subduction plate boundary offshore of kamaishi ne japan the microearthquakes tend to occur more frequently in the latter half of the recurrence intervals of the m4 9 0 1 events our results show that the microearthquakes are repeating events and they are located not only around but also within the slip area for the 2001 m4 8 event from the hierarchical structure of slip areas and smaller stress drops for the microearthquakes compared to the m4 8 event we infer the small repeating earthquakes rupture relatively weak patches in and around the slip area for the m4 8 event and their activity reflects a stress concentration process and or change in frictional property healing at the area we also infer the patches for the m4 9 0 1 and other repeating earthquakes undergo aseismic slip during their interseismic period

pre and postseismic slow slip surrounding the 2011 tohoku oki earthquake rupture abstract slow aseismic slip that accommodates part of the long term plate motion on subduction megathrusts is thought to be strongly related to the occurrence of large earthquakes on the same fault zone however the temporal evolution and spatial distribution of the aseismic slip before major earthquakes and of accelerated postseismic afterslip are largely unconstrained we estimate cumulative offsets of small repeating earthquakes that are interpreted to reflect the in situ aseismic slip history on the subduction zone offshore northeastern japan these data reveal contrasting aseismic slip patterns between the coseismic rupture area of the mw 9 0 tohoku oki earthquake and surrounding portions of the subduction thrust the rupture area is characterised by low and variable slip rates before 2008 and the slip stopped almost completely after the earthquake the region surrounding the rupture area exhibited higher aseismic fault slip rates before the earthquake and clear postseismic slip of up to 1 6 m within 9 months following the main shock the frictional fault properties and complete relief of ambient stress in the central rupture zone of the main shock probably control the observed distribution the postseismic slip shows a more abrupt increase in the region closer to the source suggesting outwards propagation of afterslip small but distinct increases in the slip rate in the 3 yr before the earthquake near the area of large coseismic slip suggests preseismic unfastening of the locked area in the last stage of the earthquake cycle

foreshocks and time dependent earthquake hazard assessment in southern california the probability that an earthquake in southern california m 3 0 will be followed by an earthquake of larger magnitude within 5 days and 10 km i e will be a foreshock is 6 0 5 per cent 1 s d and is not significantly dependent on the magnitude of the possible foreshock between m 3 and m 5 the probability that an earthquake will be followed by an m 5 0 main shock however increases with magnitude of the foreshock from less than 1 per cent at m 3 to 6 5 2 5 per cent 1 s d at m 5 the main shock will most likely occur in the first hour after the foreshock and the probability that a main shock will occur decreases with elapsed time from the occurrence of the possible foreshock by approximately the inverse of time thus the occurrence of an earthquake of m 3 0 in southern california increases the earthquake hazard within a small space time window several orders of magnitude above the normal background level

seismological studies at parkfield vi moment release rates and estimates of source parameters for small repeating earthquakes abstract waveform data from a borehole network of broadband seismographic stations have been used to study microearthquakes along the parkfield segment of the san andreas fault saf analysis of almost 10 years of such data demonstrates that much of the seismicity in this region consists of repeating sequences quasiperiodic sequences of earthquakes that are essentially identical in terms of waveform size and location scalar seismic moments have been estimated for 53 of these repeating sequences and combined with equivalent estimates from 8 similar but larger event sequences from the stone canyon section of the fault and the main parkfield sequence these estimates show that seismic moment is being released as a function of time in a very regular manner measurements of the moment release rate combined with an assumed tectonic loading rate lead to estimates of the seismic parameters source area slip and recurrence interval such parameters exhibit a systematic dependence upon source size over a range of 10 10 in seismic moment that can be described by three simple scaling relationships several implications of these scaling relationships are explored including the repeat time of earthquakes average stress drop strength of the fault and heat generated by earthquakes what emerges from this analysis of moment release rates is a quantitative description of an earthquake process that is controlled by small strong asperities that occupy less than 1 of the fault area this means that the fault is highly heterogeneous with respect to stress strength and heat generation such heterogeneity helps to explain many of the apparent contradictions that are encountered in the study of earthquakes such as why faults appear weak why significant heat flow is not observed how significant high frequencies can be generated by large earthquakes and how various geologic features such as pseudotachylytes might form

experiments on the effect of hydrograph characteristics on vertical grain sorting in gravel bed rivers 1 desert ephemeral gravel bed streams typically have bed surfaces that are relatively unarmored compared to the substrate below while gravel bed streams in humid and snowmelt areas typically have well armored surfaces the degree of armoring can be characterized in terms of an armor ratio defined as the ratio of the surface median size to the substrate median size a set of field data shows desert ephemeral gravel bed streams with armor ratios ranging from 0 5 to 2 4 and with an average value of 1 2 the armor ratio of snowmelt fed gravel bed streams in the same set ranges from 2 to 7 with an average value of 3 4 the reason for this difference is sought in terms of differing hydrological characteristics and sediment supply regimes thirteen experiments were conducted to study the formation of armoring under a range of hydrological conditions the experiments have two limiting cases a relatively flat hydrograph that represents conditions produced by continuous snowmelt and a sharply peaked hydrograph that represents conditions associated with flash floods all constant hydrograph experiments developed a well armored structured surface while short asymmetrical hydrographs did not result in substantial vertical sorting all symmetrical hydrographs show some degree of sorting and the sorting tended to become more pronounced with longer duration sediment supply appears to be a first order control on bed surface armoring while the shape of the hydrograph plays a secondary role

characteristic silent earthquakes in the eastern part of the boso peninsula central japan 1 analysis of global positioning system gps data shows transient crustal deformation in the boso peninsula central japan for about fifty days from october 2002 the southeastward horizontal displacements detected suggest the occurrence of interplate aseismic slip between the philippine sea plate and the north american plate six years after a similar event in 1996 we estimate an area of aseismic slip with moment magnitude mw 6 6 centered off the boso peninsula adjacent to associated seismic activity slip evolution of the 2002 aeismic slip started on october 4 and migrated from north to south for about ten days followed by gradual subsidence and restarting of slip which lasted until december 2 propagating more southward similarities in focal area and slip process between the 1996 and the 2002 events suggest the boso aseismic slips as characteristic silent earthquakes together with the repetitive occurrence of seismic swarm in a similar region every six to seven years a more tightly coupled southern area that did not release enough energy in the 1996 event may have caused the differences in magnitude central slip area and duration between the 1996 and the 2002 events if the hypothesized recurrence interval for strain accumulation is true based on swarm seismicity

surface based fractional transport rates mobilization thresholds and partial transport of a sand gravel sediment twenty eight coupled observations of flow transport and bed surface grain size distribution were made in a laboratory flume using a wide range of flows and a sediment with a very poorly sorted bimodal grain size distribution these observations permit the transport rates of individual size fractions to be scaled by the proportion of each size immediately available for transport on the bed surface the key to our observations is the use of a sediment in which each size fraction has been painted a different color which permits reliable repeatable and nondestructive measurement of the bed surface grain size distribution from photographs of the bed surface at a given flow the fractional transport rates may be divided into two parts a finer grained portion within which fractional transport rates are a function only of their proportion on the bed surface and total transport rate and a coarser grained portion for which fractional transport rates also depend on the proportion of individual grains within a fraction that remain essentially immobile throughout the experimental run we define the latter condition as one of partial transport and observe that the grain size separating partial and fully mobilized transport consistently increases with flow strength complete mobilization of a size fraction occurs at roughly twice the shear stress necessary for incipient motion of that fraction zones of partial and full mobility are quite distinct when fractional transport rates are scaled by the bed surface grain size distribution although a region of partial transport is evident when these data and other experimental and field observations are scaled by the bulk grain size distribution of the sediment bed critical shear stresses for the incipient motion of individual fractions in our experimental sediment vary over an order of magnitude a result strongly in contrast to many earlier observations but consistent with our observations of incipient motion in sediments with bimodal grain size distributions

temporal variations in bedload transport rates associated with the migration of bedforms temporal variations in bedload transport rates that occur at a variety of timescales even under steady flow conditions are accepted as an inherent component of the bedload transport process rarely however has the cause of such variations been explained clearly we consider three data sets obtained from laboratory experiments that refer to measurements of bedload transport made with continuously recording bedload traps each data set is characterized by a predominant low frequency oscillation on which additional higher frequency oscillations generally are superimposed the period of these oscillations as isolated through the use of spectral analysts ranged between 0 47 and 168 minutes and was associated unequivocally with the migration of bedforms such as ripples dunes and bars the extent to which such oscillatory behaviour may be recognized in a data set depends on the duration of sampling and the length of the sampling time with respect to the period of a given bedform several theoretical probability distribution functions have been developed to describe the frequency distributions of relative bedload transport rates that are associated with the migration of bedforms einstein 1937b hamamori 1962 carey and hubbell 1986 these distribution functions were derived without reference to a sampling interval we present a modification of hamamori s 1962 probability distribution function generated by monte carlo simulation which permits one to specify the sampling interval in relation to the length of a bedform comparisons between the simulated and observed frequency distributions that were undertaken on the basis of the data described herein are good significant at the 90 per cent confidence level finally the implications that temporal variability which is associated with the migration of bedforms have for the accurate determination of bedload transport rates are considered

a model of two phase bedload transport in an oregon coast range stream a descriptive model for bed material routing in small sand and gravel bedded channels with sequences of pools and armoured riffles was developed aspects of the model are demonstrated at flynn creek a 202 ha third order drainage in the oregon coast range assuming that channel geometry sediment transport competence and the availability of sediments for transport are all non uniform in the downstream direction the model described bedload transport as occurring in two phases phase i involves the transport of fine predominantly sand sized bed materials over stable gravel armoured riffles phase ii occurs at higher flows that can entrain riffle armour and transport riffle sediments in addition to phase i sediments phase i bedload transport was sampled during three moderate flow events a power function related phase i bedload transport to water discharge the relationship was consistent between storms and between two successive years phase ii bedload transport sampled during a 1 8 yr return period streamflow event in february 1979 proved non uniform in a downstream direction and unsteady over time at a given stream discharge transport rates closely correlated with the rapid scour and redeposition of the riffle at the bedload sampling cross section transport peaks corresponded to scour and transport decreased greatly during deposition the transport of large 12 5 mm diam bed material increased up to 12 fold during riffle scour

particle comminution defines megaflood and superflood energetics abstract the concept of megafloods and superfloods was introduced at the end of the last century to define exceptionally large discharge floods primarily those associated with the failure of quaternary ice dams these floods exceeded by one or two magnitudes historically recorded floods megafloods having peak discharges equalling or exceeding 1 m m3 s 1 herein the sediment associations of exceptional floods are found to be distinctive being dominated by comminuted smashed grain size distributions which contrast to the sediment deposits of more moderate floods a consideration of the energetics of moderate floods superfloods and megafloods with respect to the entrainment dis entrainment suspension and comminution of coarse gravel allows thresholds of energy expenditure to be proposed that reflect general transformations in flood behaviour that relate to distinctive flood deposits a threshold of energy expenditure 20 kj s 1 m 2 is proposed to separate moderate floods from superfloods the latter by this definition can be 0 1 m m3 s 1 this threshold separates floods competent to entrain cobbles and boulders with limited comminution of the load from superfloods that comminute the suspended cobbles and boulders to produce fine granules in suspension the granules are subsequently deposited to form distinct depositional units that are characteristic of superfloods and megafloods the energetic threshold is consistent with the lower range of power expenditures associated with the original definition of a megaflood in terms of peak fluid flux significance exceptional floods occurred in prehistoric times the largest are referred to as megafloods or superfloods to distinguish such exceptional floods from other large floods megafloods were defined as having a peak discharge exceeding 1 m m3 s 1 however many reports of megafloods are flows with a peak discharge smaller than 1 m m3 s 1 recent research has shown that megafloods and superfloods deposit distinctive layers of smashed gravel which is not the case for smaller floods the gravel is smashed by exceptionally high energy expenditures consideration of the energetics of floods to transport gravel allows a robust quantitative definition of superflood based on the energy needed to smash a range of gravel sizes

mechanical and hydrological effects of seamount subduction on megathrust stress and slip subduction of rough seafloor and seamounts is thought to impact a broad range of geodynamic processes including megathrust slip behaviour forearc fluid flow and long term structural evolution in the overriding plate although there are many conceptual models describing the effects of seamount subduction our quantitative and mechanistic understanding of the underlying deformation and fluid processes remains incomplete here we investigate the interplay between sediment consolidation faulting and the evolution of stress and pore fluid pressure in response to seamount subduction using a numerical model that couples mechanical and hydrological processes and is constrained by laboratory and field observations our results show that subducting topography drives marked spatial variations in tectonic loading sediment consolidation and megathrust stress state downdip of a subducting seamount on its leading flank enhanced compression and drainage lead to large fault normal stress and overconsolidated wall rocks a stress shadow in the seamount s wake leads to anomalously high sediment porosity these variations help explain observed patterns of megathrust slip with earthquakes and microseismicity favoured at the downdip edge of seamounts and aseismic or slow slip in the updip stress shadow changing stresses and pore fluid pressures during subduction of seamounts as simulated with a numerical model that couples mechanical and hydrological processes help explain observed patterns of megathrust slip

surface roughness over the northern half of the greenland ice sheet from airborne laser altimetry 1 surface roughness defined as the standard deviation of small scale elevation fluctuations from the linear trend over 0 5 km can be estimated from high resolution airborne laser altimetry here we present results for the northern half of the greenland ice sheet using laser data collected in may 1995 roughness is smallest in the central region straddling the ice divide increases in amplitude toward the coast and appears to be correlated with slope of the ice surface for most of the study region surface roughness is 8 cm or less 2 5 cm water equivalent in smaller regions associated with fast flow larger values are found comparison of the size of small scale topographic disturbances with the spatial noise estimated from five closely spaced ice cores drilled in northwest greenland shows good agreement similar correspondence was found earlier using nine ice cores from the summit region these results indicate that the airborne laser altimeter provides an efficient platform for characterizing the statistical nature of the snow surface over large areas of the polar ice sheets

friction angle measurements on a naturally formed gravel streambed implications for critical boundary shear stress we report the first measurements of friction angles for a naturally formed gravel streambed for a given test grain size placed on a bed surface friction angles varied from 10o to over 100o friction angle distributions can be expressed as a function of test grain size median bed grain size and bed sorting parameter friction angles decrease with increasing grain size relative to the median bed grain size and are a systematic function of sorting with lower friction angles associated with poorer sorting the probability distributions of critical shear stress for different grain sizes on a given bed surface as calculated from our friction angle data show a common origin but otherwise diverge with larger grains having narrower and lower ranges of critical shear stresses the potential mobility of a grain as defined by its probability distribution of critical shear stress may be overestimated for larger grains in this analysis because our calculations do not take into account the effects of grain burial and altered near bed flow fields

spatial changes of inter plate coupling inferred from sequences of small repeating earthquakes in japan 1 we extract sequences of small repeating earthquakes to clarify inter plate coupling of subducting plates over a large area of the japanese islands as a result many sequences arc detected at the philippine sea plate subducting from the ryukyu trench and pacific plate subducting from the kuril japan trench the average slip rates and standard deviations estimated from the sequences show substantial spatial changes of inter plate coupling the large deviations of slip rates correspond to the occurrence of episodic slips such as after slips following large earthquakes constant slip rates approaching the relative plate motion indicate weak coupling areas slip deficits and sparse distributions of repeating groups suggest locked areas in the nankai trough deep low frequency earthquakes in the transition zone and burst type repeating sequences within plates have not been located in the downdip direction of groups with slow slip rates this suggests that the space time characteristics of inter plate coupling affected these seismic events

sediment supply and the development of the coarse surface layer in gravel bedded rivers the bed surface of most gravel rivers is considerably coarser than the sub surface or the gravel load transported over it a phenomenon affecting river dynamics morphology and ecology the coarse surface layer often called an armour or pavement has been attributed to an inherent tendency for small grains to settle between larger ones during active transport of all sizes1 2 and to selective erosion or trapping of finer particles when the coarse grains are relatively immobile3 4 where bedload supply is cut off below dams selective erosion causes coarsening5 6 using a simple quantitative model we propose that surface coarsening develops in gravel bedded rivers when local bedload supply from upstream is less than the ability of the flow to transport that load we present laboratory results which support this hypothesis and show that supply reduction causes changes in bedforms and progressive confinement of active bedload transport to a narrow band of finer bed surface bordered by a coarse less active bed it may therefore be possible to relate the degree of river bed surface coarsening to sediment supply resulting from land use

recurring slow slip events and earthquake nucleation in the source region of the m 7 ibaraki oki earthquakes revealed by earthquake swarm and foreshock activity

on why gravel bed streams are paved bedload transport in poorly sorted gravel bed streams downstream of dams is considered bedload and typical bed material subpavement size distributions are observed to be similar it follows that the coarse half of the subpavement moves through a reach at a rate near that of the fine half since coarser grains are intrinsically less mobile than fine grains it follows that some mechanism must act to nearly equalize mobility it is hypothesized that the pavement seen in gravel bed streams at low flow is in fact in place during typical transport events capable of moving all available sizes this pavement can provide the equalizing mechanism by exposing proportionally more coarse grains to the flow field data are used to quantify this concept and to develop a predictive relation for river pavement the model indicates that pavement should be absent in most sand bed streams in agreement with observation

bedload transport in gravel bed streams field data obtained from oak creek are used to study the bedload transport in gravelbed streams a similarity approach is used to delineate a functional relationship obtained for the bedload transp

earthquake nucleation on faults with rate and state dependent strength abstract dieterich j h 1992 earthquake nucleation on faults with rate and state dependent strength in t mikumo k aki m ohnaka l j ruff and p k p spudich editors earthquake source physics and earthquake precursors tectonophysics 211 115 134 faults with rate and state dependent constitutive properties reproduce a range of observed fault slip phenomena including spontaneous nucleation of slip instabilities at stresses above some critical stress level and recovery of strength following slip instability calculations with a plane strain fault model with spatially varying properties demonstrate that accelerating slip precedes instability and becomes localized to a fault patch the dimensions of the fault patch follow scaling relations for the minimum critical length for unstable fault slip the critical length is a function of normal stress loading conditions and constitutive parameters which include dc the characteristic slip distance if slip starts on a patch that exceeds the critical size the length of the rapidly accelerating zone tends to shrink to the characteristic size as the time of instability approaches solutions have been obtained for a uniform fixed patch model that are in good agreement with results from the plane strain model over a wide range of conditions above the steady state stress the logarithm of the time to instability linearly decreases as the initial stress increases because nucleation patch length and premonitory displacement are proportional to dc the moment of premonitory slip scales by d3c the scaling of dc is currently an open question unless dc for earthquake faults is significantly greater than that observed on laboratory faults premonitory strain arising from the nucleation process for earthquakes may by too small to detect using current observation methods excluding the possibility that dc in the nucleation zone controls the magnitude of the subsequent earthquake then the source dimensions of the smallest earthquakes in a region provide an upper limit for the size of the nucleation patch

fault slip rates at depth from recurrence intervals of repeating microearthquakes unique attributes in sequences of recurring similar microearthquakes at parkfield california provide a means for inferring slip rate at depth throughout the active fault surface from the time intervals between sequence events application of the method using an 11 year microseismicity record revealed systematic spatial and temporal changes in the slip rate that were synchronous with earthquake activity and other independent measures of fault zone slip if this phenomenon is found to be generally common behavior in active faults it forms the basis for a method to monitor the changing strain field throughout a seismogenic fault zone

nucleation of the 1999 izmit earthquake by a triggered cascade of foreshocks much of what we know about the nucleation of earthquakes comes from the temporal and spatial relationship of foreshocks to the initiation point hypocentre of the mainshock the 1999 mw 7 6 izmit turkey earthquake was preceded by a 44 minute long foreshock sequence which built in intensity as the time of the mainshock approached here we apply a series of high resolution methods to the sparse seismological observations to determine the spatial and temporal relation of the foreshocks to the mainshock hypocentre we find that the foreshocks form a contiguous series of ruptures that progressed systematically from west to east towards the mainshock hypocentre located at the extreme eastern edge of the foreshocks the izmit foreshock sequence occurred as a triggered cascade in which one foreshock loads the adjacent fault patch causing it to fail with the mainshock initiation no different than another foreshock we find no evidence to support a hypothesized precursory aseismic driving process if we are to resolve the role of aseismic deformation and possible role of fluid overpressure in the earthquake nucleation process it will likely require measurements made in the near field of the hypocentre the magnitude 7 6 izmit earthquake that struck turkey in 1999 was nucleated by an eastward migrating cascade of foreshocks according to high resolution analyses of seismic data

nucleation and early seismic propagation of small and large events in a crustal earthquake model 1 earthquake nucleation and early seismic propagation are studied in a two dimensional strike slip fault model with depth variable properties the fault is governed by the dieterich ruina rate and state friction law we use an efficient and rigorous numerical procedure for elastodynamic analysis of earthquake sequences on slowly loaded faults developed by lapusta et al 2000 we find that for decreasing values of the characteristic slip distance of the friction law small events appear at the transition from the locked to creeping behavior toward the bottom of the seismogenic zone small and large events have very similar nucleation phases in our simulations here by nucleation phase we mean gradually accelerating aseismic slip in a small slowly expanding zone before the breakout of the dynamic seismically detectable event moment acceleration to which velocity seismograms are proportional in early stages of seismic propagation exhibits irregular fluctuations in the form of speedups and slowdowns in the moment release rate consistently with observations as reported by ellsworth and beroza 1995 our simulations show that such irregular moment acceleration can at least in part be due to the heterogeneous stress distribution imprinted on the fault by the arrest of previous small events and by stress concentrations at the borders of creeping regions and to partial arrest of the rupture in velocity strengthening fault regions which inhibit seismic slip index terms 7209 seismology earthquake dynamics and mechanics 7260 seismology theory and modeling 3220 mathematical geophysics nonlinear dynamics 7230 seismology seismicity and seismotectonics 3230 mathematical geophysics numerical solutions 8164 tectonophysics stresses crust and lithosphere keywords earthquake nucleation phase event clustering irregular moment release stress concentrations rate and state friction earthquake sequences

background seismicity in boso peninsula japan long term acceleration and relationship with slow slip events slow slip events sses in subduction zones can trigger earthquake swarms especially at shallow depth the monitoring of seismicity rates has therefore the potential to help detect and characterize sses and transient changes in coupling however the relationship between seismicity rate and slow slip rate during a sse is unknown and made complicated by aftershock triggering within the swarm here we propose to complement geodetic methods with an objective measure of the seismicity rate that is directly associated with changes in slip rate we show that this measure applied to known occurrences of sses in the boso area japan yields an estimate albeit indirect of their seismic moment hence their slip rate we finally prove that the background rate in boso has been accelerating since 1990 this explains previous observations of the shortening of the recurrence time between sses in boso that clearly predate the 2011 mw9 0 tohoku oki earthquake

weak interplate coupling by seamounts and repeating m 7 earthquakes subducting seamounts are thought to increase the normal stress between subducting and overriding plates however recent seismic surveys and laboratory experiments suggest that interplate coupling is weak a seismic survey in the japan trench shows that a large seamount is being subducted near a region of repeating earthquakes of magnitude m 7 both observed seismicity and the pattern of rupture propagation during the 1982 m 7 0 event imply that interplate coupling was weak over the seamount a large rupture area with small slip occurred in front of the seamount its northern bound could be determined by a trace of multiple subducted seamounts whereas a subducted seamount itself may not define the rupture area its width may be influenced by that of the seamount

far field triggering of foreshocks near the nucleation zone of the 5 september 2012 m w 7 6 nicoya peninsula costa rica earthquake abstract on 5 september 2012 a moment magnitude mw 7 6 earthquake occurred directly beneath the nicoya peninsula an area with dense seismic and geodetic network coverage the mainshock ruptured a portion of a previously identified locked patch that was recognized due to a decade long effort to delineate the megathrust seismic and aseismic processes in this area here we conduct a comprehensive study of the seismicity prior to this event utilizing a matched filter analysis that allows us to decrease the magnitude of catalog completeness by 1 unit we observe a statistically significant increase in seismicity rate below the nicoya peninsula following the 27 august 2012 mw 7 3 el salvador earthquake about 450 km to the northwest and 9 days prior to the nicoya earthquake additionally we identify a cluster of small magnitude

migration of early aftershocks following the 2004 parkfield earthquake a significant number of the early aftershocks following large shallow earthquakes are missing in existing earthquake catalogues an analysis of the waveforms of 3 647 relocated earthquakes along the parkfield section of the san andreas fault reveals 11 times more aftershocks within three days of the 2004 parkfield earthquake than listed in a standard catalogue large shallow earthquakes are immediately followed by numerous aftershocks a significant portion of these events is missing in existing earthquake catalogues mainly because seismicity after the mainshock can be masked by overlapping arrivals of waves from the mainshock and aftershocks1 2 3 4 however recovery of the missing early aftershocks is important for understanding the physical mechanisms of earthquake triggering2 3 4 and for tracking postseismic deformation around the rupture zone associated with the mainshock5 6 7 here we use the waveforms of 3 647 relocated earthquakes8 along the parkfield section of the san andreas fault as templates9 10 to detect missing aftershocks within three days of the 2004 magnitude 6 0 parkfield earthquake we identify 11 times more aftershocks than listed in the standard catalogue of the northern california seismic network we find that the newly detected aftershocks migrate in both along strike and down dip directions with logarithmic time since the mainshock consistent with numerical simulations of the expansion of aftershocks caused by propagating afterslip11 12 the cumulative number of early aftershocks increases linearly with postseismic deformation in the first two days supporting the view that aftershocks are driven primarily by afterslip13 14

episodic slow slip events in the japan subduction zone before the 2011 tohoku oki earthquake abstract we describe two transient slow slip events that occurred before the 2011 tohoku oki earthquake the first transient crustal deformation which occurred over a period of a week in november 2008 was recorded simultaneously using ocean bottom pressure gauges and an on shore volumetric strainmeter this deformation has been interpreted as being an m6 8 episodic slow slip event the second had a duration exceeding 1 month and was observed in february 2011 just before the 2011 tohoku oki earthquake the moment magnitude of this event reached 7 0 the two events preceded interplate earthquakes of magnitudes m6 1 december 2008 and m7 3 march 9 2011 respectively the latter is the largest foreshock of the 2011 tohoku oki earthquake our findings indicate that these slow slip events induced increases in shear stress which in turn triggered the interplate earthquakes the slow slip event source area on the fault is also located within the downdip portion of the huge coseismic slip area of the 2011 earthquake this demonstrates episodic slow slip and seismic behavior occurring on the same portions of the megathrust fault suggesting that the faults undergo slip in slow slip events can also rupture seismically

c swithinbank 1988 satellite image atlas of glaciers of the world antarctica washington dc united states government printing office united states geological survey professional paper 1386 b

foreshocks explained by cascades of triggered seismicity 1 the observation of foreshocks preceding large earthquakes and the suggestion that foreshocks have specific properties that may be used to distinguish them from other earthquakes have raised the hope that large earthquakes may be predictable among proposed anomalous properties are the larger proportion than normal of large versus small foreshocks the power law acceleration of seismicity rate as a function of time to the mainshock and the spatial migration of foreshocks toward the mainshock when averaging over many sequences using southern california seismicity we show that these properties and others arise naturally from the simple model that any earthquake may trigger other earthquakes without arbitrary distinction between foreshocks aftershocks and mainshocks we find that foreshock precursory properties are independent of the mainshock size this implies that earthquakes large or small are predictable to the same degree as seismicity rate is predictable from past seismicity by taking into account cascades of triggering the cascades of triggering give rise naturally to long range and long time interactions which can explain the observations of correlations in seismicity over surprisingly large length scales

the incidence and nature of bedload transport during flood flows in coarse grained alluvial channels a continuous record reveals that the incidence of bedload in a coarse grained river channel changes from flood to flood long periods of inactivity encourage the channel bed to consolidate sufficiently so that bedload is largely confined to the recession limb of the next flood wave but when floods follow each other closely the bed material is comparatively loose and offers less resistance to entrainment in this case substantial amounts of bedload are generated on the rising limb this is confirmed by values of bed shear stress or stream power at the threshold of initial motion which can be up to five times the overall mean in the case of isolated floods or those which are the first of the season this produces a complicated relationship between flow parameters and bedload and explains some of the difficulties in establishing bedload rating curves for coarse grained channels besides this the threshold of initial motion is shown to occur at levels of bed shear stress three times those at the thresholds of final motion this adds further confusion to attempts at developing predictive bedload equations and clearly indicates at least one reason why equations currently in use are unsatisfactory bedload is shown to be characterized by a series of pulses with a mean periodicity of 1 7 hours in the absence of migrating bedforms it is speculated that this well documented pattern reflects the passage of kinematic waves of particles in a slow moving traction carpet the general pattern of bedload including pulsations is shown to occur more or less synchronously at different points across the stream channel

entrainment of gravel from naturally sorted riverbed material the critical dimensionless shear stress ci required to entrain a given size particle di was computed from extensive bedload transport measurements in three self formed rivers that have naturally sorted gravel and cobble bed material the value of ci was determined to be significantly affected by the size distribution of the riverbed material for bed particles between 0 3 to 4 2 times the median diameter of the subsurface bed material d50 the average critical dimensionless shear stress ci is equal to ci 0 0834 di d50 0 872 with a coefficient of determination of 0 980 for bed particles larger than 4 2 times d50 ci appears to approach a constant value of approximately 0 020 in a noneroding channel thus ci varies from 0 25 to 0 020 for a given particle depending on the ratio of di to d50 previous investigations of the hydraulic conditions required to entrain coarse riverbed material have reported critical shear stress values ranging from 0 25 to 0 020 for a given particle size this analysis indicates that virtually all of the variation is due to differences in the subsurface bed material size distribution this analysis shows that ci varies almost inversely proportional to the particle diameter for a nonuniform bed material therefore bed particles between 0 3 to 4 2 times d50 are entrained at nearly the same discharge an investigation of the hydraulic characteristics and bed material mobility of 24 self formed gravel bed rivers in colorado determined that particles as large as the median diameter of the bed surface were entrained by discharges equal to the bankfull stage or less particles as large as the 90th percentile fraction were entrained by the bankfull discharge in nine of the rivers studied consequently in these rivers a significant fraction of the riverbed was entrained rather frequently over a period of years although the transport rate was very small

discrimination of a preparatory stage leading to m7 characteristic earthquakes off ibaraki prefecture japan 1 an m7 0 earthquake struck off ibaraki prefecture japan on 8 may 2008 this event was interpreted as belonging to a characteristic earthquake series fracturing the same asperities on the upper boundary of the pacific plate with a quasi regular interval of about 22 years the previous m7 0 occurred in 1982 26 years before the latest one i examined the background microseismicity changes preceding these two events by drawing maps of earthquake frequency ratios between two successive periods and i found a significant similarity between them this similarity could be expressed numerically by calculating correlation coefficients between the two maps surveying the temporal transition of the correlation coefficients i confirmed that the similarity appeared only for the combination of those maps just before two characteristic earthquakes it never appeared in the other cases this result implies the existence and repetition of a typical preparatory stage leading to the characteristic earthquake which might be caused by a quasi static slip on minor asperities in a hierarchical constitution and which forms a specific pattern of seismicity change this evidence makes it possible to propose a definitive procedure for the practical prediction of the next characteristic earthquake which is anticipated to occur around 2030 two kinds of correlation coefficients ra and rb are calculated by treating each seismicity change map just before the 1982 and 2008 events as references when both ra and rb exceed the prefixed threshold r0 it is possible to announce the time of immediate occurrence of the target earthquake