dynamics of izmit earthquake postseismic deformation and loading of the duzce earthquake hypocenter we have developed dynamic finite element models of izmit earthquake postseismic deformation to evaluate whether this deformation is better explained by afterslip via either velocity strengthening frictional slip or linear viscous creep or by distributed linear viscoelastic relaxation of the lower crust we find that velocity strengthening frictional afterslip driven by coseismic shear stress loading can reproduce time dependent global positioning system data better than either linear viscous creep on a vertical shear zone below the rupture or lower crustal viscoelastic relaxation our best frictional afterslip model fits the main features of postseismic slip inversions in particular high slip patches at and below the hypocenter and on the western karadere segment and limited afterslip west of the hersek delta burgmann et al 2002 the model requires a weakly velocity strengthening fault that is either low effective normal stress in the slipping regions or a smaller value for the parameter describing rate dependence of friction a b than is indicated by laboratory experiments our best afterslip model suggests that the coulomb stress at the duzce hypocenter increased by 0 14 mpa 1 4 bars during the izmit earthquake assuming right lateral slip on a surface dipping 50 to the north and by another 0 1 mpa during the 87 days between the izmit and duzce earthquakes in the marmara sea region within about 160 km of the izmit earthquake rupture this model indicates that the coulomb stresses increased by 15 25 of the coseismic amount during the first 300 days after the earthquake three hundred days after the earthquake postseismic contributions to coulomb stressing rate on the maramara region faults had fallen to values equal to or less than the inferred secular stress accumulation rate our estimates of postseismic coulomb stress are highly model dependent in the marmara region the linear viscous shear zone and viscoelastic lower crust models predict greater postseismic coulomb stresses than the frictional afterslip model near field stress and fault zone rheology estimates are sensitive to the earth9s elastic structure when a layered elastic structure is incorporated in our model it yields a coulomb stress of 0 24 mpa at the duzce hypocenter significantly more than the 0 14 mpa estimated from the uniform elastic model because of the higher near field coseismic stresses the layered elastic model requires a higher value of velocity strengthening parameter a b a b times effective normal stress r to produce comparable postseismic slip a b is estimated at 0 4 and 0 2 mpa respectively for the layered and uniform elastic models these results highlight the importance of understanding the earth9s elastic structure and the mechanism for postseismic deformation if we wish to accurately model coseismic and postseismic crustal stresses

upper limits of power law creep of rocks at depths below a few kilometers most rocks probably flow in the steady state dominantly by diffusion assisted dislocation creep mechanisms whereby strain rate is proportional to a low power of deviatoric stress at high stress levels for metals ceramics and rocks the power law breaks down plb to some other strain rate stress functional relationship and this paper explores four methods by which the breakdown stress b may be estimated for metals alloys and ceramics b 10 3 for non silicate rocks b 5 10 3 and for silicates b 10 2 for silicates the low stress exponent power law breaks down at high stresses to an exponential dependence of strain rate upon stress or to a dorn law the governing flow mechanisms generally being lattice resistance controlled dislocation glide and mechanical twinning plb breakdown stresses for silicates are nearly strain rate insensitive and extrapolated values of b are so high as to suggest that low temperature high stress plasticity may be suppressed entirely in geological deformations plb for olivine rich rocks is discussed in some detail and new three dimensional deformation mechanism surfaces for wet and dry olivine polycrystals are presented

lithospheric extension near lake mead nevada a model for ductile flow in the lower crust small variations in gravity anomalies and topographic elevation observed in areas that have undergone highly variable amounts of upper crustal thinning can be satisfactorily explained by ductile flow of lower crustal material under the proper conditions in this study we examine the boundary between the unextended colorado plateau and a strongly extended domain in the basin and range province in the lake mead nevada region bouguer gravity and topography data suggest that both present and preextensional variations in crustal thickness between the unextended and extended regions are small analytic channel flow models show that viscosities required for ductile flow in a lower crustal channel to reduce discontinuities in crustal thickness associated with variable amounts of extension are highly dependent on the channel thickness and on the length scale of flow required finite element modeling of newtonian flow and power law creep shows that flow over the length scale of the eastern basin and range 500 km or more corresponding to upper crustal extension by a factor of 1 4 3 over 10 m y requires effective viscosities less than 10 18 10 20 pa s for ductile channels 10 25 km thick flow over shorter length scales 150 km may be accommodated with effective viscosities as high as 10 21 pa s modeling suggests that these effective viscosities may be sustained by lower crustal material deforming at laboratory derived power law creep rates the longer scale flow may require elevated crustal temperatures more than 700 c depending on the composition and material properties assumed under the boundary conditions assumed in this study the linear viscous flow models yield a satisfactory approximation to deformation by power law creep this work suggests that flow in the lower crust may be a viable mechanism for producing small variations in total crustal thickness between strongly extended and less extended regions and thereby explaining the relative uniformity in gravity and topography between such regions

shallow slip deficit due to large strike slip earthquakes in dynamic rupture simulations with elasto plastic off fault response summary slip inversions of geodetic data from several large magnitude 7 strike slip earthquakes point to coseismic slip deficit at shallow depths 3 4 km that is coseismic slip appears to decrease towards the earth surface while the inferred slip distribution may be consistent with laboratory derived rate and state friction laws suggesting that the uppermost brittle crust may be velocity strengthening there remains a question of how the coseismic slip deficit is accommodated throughout the earthquake cycle the consequence of velocity strengthening fault friction at shallow depths is that the deficit of coseismic slip is relieved by post seismic afterslip and interseismic creep however many seismic events with inferred shallow slip deficit were not associated with either resolvable shallow interseismic creep or robust shallow afterslip hence the origin of shallow slip deficit remains uncertain in this study we investigate whether inelastic failure in the shallow crust due to dynamic earthquake rupture can explain the inferred deficit of shallow slip evidence for such failure is emerging from geologic seismic and geodetic observations we find that the amount of shallow slip deficit is proportional to the amount of inelastic deformation near the earth surface such deformation occurs under a wide range of parameters that characterize rock strength in the upper crust however the largest magnitude of slip deficit in models accounting for off fault yielding is 2 4 times smaller than that inferred from kinematic inversions of geodetic data to explain this discrepancy we further explore to what extent assumptions in the kinematic inversions may bias the inferred slip distributions inelastic deformation in the shallow crust reduces coseismic strain near the fault introducing an additional artificial deficit of up to 10 per cent of the maximum slip in inversions of geodetic data that are based on purely elastic models the largest magnitude of slip deficit in our models combined with the bias in inversions accounts for up to 25 per cent of shallow slip deficit which is comparable but still smaller than 30 60 per cent deficit inferred from kinematic inversions we discuss potential mechanisms that may account for the remaining discrepancy between slip deficit predicted by elasto plastic rupture models and that inferred from inversions of space geodetic data

kinematics of the mw 7 2 12 november 1999 duzce turkey earthquake the november 12 1999 duzce earthquake ruptured a 40 km long fault segment of the north anatolian fault system immediately to the east of the august 17 1999 izmit rupture we use displacements of 32 sites derived from gps measurements immediately before and after the duzce earthquake to estimate the geometry and slip distribution of the coseismic rupture the 51 northward dipping rupture plane the rake of the slip vector average 3 76 0 04 m right lateral 0 76 0 04 m normal slip and the slip distribution inferred from the gps data are consistent with seismic observations and the distribution of surface offsets measured in the field the geodetically determined moment magnitude is mw 7 2 the duzce earthquake had the highest slip to rupture length ratio of any historic earthquake along the north anatolian fault this is consistent with the duzce earthquake being a part of a composite rupture with the preceding izmit event

postseismic deformation induced by brittle rock damage of aftershocks 1 large earthquakes are commonly followed by abundant aftershocks that are densely located around the coseismic rupture zone laboratory experiments indicate that microscopic brittle rock failures acoustic emission are associated collectively with a macroscopic damage related inelastic relaxation utilizing basic relations between local brittle failures and gradual inelastic strain in a viscoelastic damage rheology model we develop connections between aftershock decay rates and the aftershocks induced component of geodetic deformation the discussed mechanism is relevant for postseismic relaxation produced by sources located within the seismogenic zone and especially in regions that overlap locations of high aftershocks activity assuming the omori utsu decay rate for aftershocks we find that the temporal decay of the damage related postseismic relaxation follows a generalized power law relation with the standard omori utsu law as a limit case the results provide a way for estimating the separate contributions to observed postseismic displacements that stem from brittle failures in the seismogenic zone aftershocks and other aseismic processes using the obtained theoretical expectations we analyze postseismic displacements measured by gps stations around the north anatolian fault 3 months following the 1999 m7 4 izmit earthquake we find that the observed postseismic displacements decay slower than the aftershock seismicity based on our theoretical results we conclude that up to 50 of the measured surface displacements at near fault sites can be attributed to aftershock induced inelastic deformation in the seismogenic zone the remainder postseismic deformation can generally be explained by relaxation in the deeper ductile substrate

heightened odds of large earthquakes near istanbul an interaction based probability calculation we calculate the probability of strong shaking in istanbul an urban center of 10 million people from the description of earthquakes on the north anatolian fault system in the marmara sea during the past 500 years and test the resulting catalog against the frequency of damage in istanbul during the preceding millennium departing from current practice we include the time dependent effect of stress transferred by the 1999 moment magnitude m 7 4 izmit earthquake to faults nearer to istanbul we find a 62 15 probability one standard deviation of strong shaking during the next 30 years and 32 12 during the next decade

crustal rheology and faulting at strike slip plate boundaries 2 effects of lower crustal flow we present a numerical model of deformation at a strike slip plate boundary within a linear viscoelastic crust which is driven by far field plate motions and basal mantle velocities the crust is assumed to have uniform elastic properties but continuously varying viscosity as a function of depth brittle faulting is represented by static elastic dislocations that are imposed when stresses exceed a critical threshold for fracture or frictional sliding the locations and depth extents of faults in this model are not prespecified but instead are governed by stress evolution within the crust we find that when a primarily elastic upper crust is underlain by a low viscosity lower crustal layer the deformation zone broadens in time to encompass many parallel strike slip faults in an interacting network in contrast when the entire crust behaves elastically the deformation zone remains narrow and focused on a single plate bounding fault reflecting imposed mantle motions surface strain rate patterns within the interacting fault network are complex and reflect significant faulting related strain rate perturbations that decay over timescales of postseismic relaxation in the lower crust 10 100 years the fault network has a characteristic spacing with complex fault interactions and with the depth extents of faults increasing with time to a maximum depth governed by crustal rheology the maximum depth of faults is limited by stress relaxation and large scale viscous flow in the lower crust which confines brittle failure to shallow and midcrustal levels

effect of crustal layering upon dislocation modeling slip distribution at depth on a fault may be inferred from the deformation observed on the surface in inverting the surface deformation data to obtain the slip distribution the earth is generally approximated by an elastic half space slip distributions inferred from a half space model may contain artifacts including zones of reversed slip due solely to effects of layering in the real earth this effect is demonstrated for a vertical strike slip fault in an earth consisting of an elastic layer overlying an elastic half space slip on the fault is taken to be independent of the along strike coordinate i e antiplane strain is assumed for a given slip distribution in this model the slip distribution on a similar fault in an elastic half space is found that produces the identical surface deformation comparison of the two slip distributions reveals structure introduced into the half space equivalent slip profile by crustal layering the comparisons suggest that low resolution inversion schemes e g single screw dislocation models are not drastically affected by earth structure but attempts at detailed inversion are likely to produce profiles contaminated by artifacts of earth structure

quantitative measure of the variation in fault rheology due to fluid rock interactions we analyze friction data from two published suites of laboratory tests on granite in order to explore and quantify the effects of temperature t and pore water pressure pp on the sliding behavior of faults rate stepping sliding tests were performed on laboratory faults in granite containing gouge granite powder both dry at 23 to 845 c lockner et al 1986 and wet pp 100 mpa at 23 to 600 c blanpied et al 1991 1995 imposed slip velocities v ranged from 0 01 to 5 5 m s and effective normal stresses were near 400 mpa for dried granite at all temperatures and wet granite below 300 c the coefficient of friction shows low sensitivity to v t and pp for wet granite above 350 drops rapidly with increasing t and shows a strong positive rate dependence and protracted strength transients following steps in v presumably reflecting the activity of a water aided deformation process by inverting strength data from velocity stepping tests we determined values for parameters in three formulations of a rate and state dependent constitutive law one or two state variables were used to represent slip history effects each velocity step yielded an independent set of values for the nominal friction level five constitutive parameters transient parameters a b1 and b2 and characteristic displacements dc1 and dc2 and the velocity dependence of steady state friction ss ln v a b1 b2 below 250 data from dry and most wet tests are adequately modeled by using the slip law ruina 1983 and one state variable a 0 003 to 0 018 b 0 001 to 0 018 dc 1 to 20 m dried tests above 250 can also be fitted with one state variable in contrast wet tests above 350 require higher direct rate dependence a 0 03 to 0 12 plus a second state variable with large negative amplitude b2 0 03 to 0 14 and large characteristic displacement dc2 300 to 4000 m thus the parameters a b1 and b2 for wet granite show a pronounced change in their temperature dependence in the range 270 to 350 c which may reflect a change in underlying deformation mechanism we quantify the trends in parameter values from 25 to 600 c by piecewise linear regressions which provide a straightforward means to incorporate the full constitutive response of granite into numerical models of fault slip the modeling results suggest that the succeptibility for unstable stick slip sliding is maximized between 90 and 360 c in agreement with laboratory observations and consistent with the depth range of earthquakes on mature faults in the continental crust

variations in the crustal structure beneath western turkey summary we use teleseismic receiver functions to investigate the crustal structure at two locations in westernturkey using seismic data recorded on small arrays of temporary broad band seismographs the results from these analyses are compared with receiver function results from the gdsn station anto on the anatolian plateau in central turkey the crust is 30 km thick in the region of western turkey where active normal faulting reveals present day extension in the upper crust and alkali basaltic volcanism reveals recent extension within the subcrustal lithosphere the crust is 34 km thick further east where crustal extension is still evident but less pronounced in the anatolian plateau which is not currently extending the crust is 38 km thick the level of extension estimated from these measurements of crustal thickness implies a b factor of 1 2 this value agrees with the amount of extension estimated in the upper crust from the integrated seismic strain rate b factor of 1 3 from surface faulting b factor of 1 25 and from the amount of extension in the subcrustal lithosphere estimated from the volcanism b factor 2 all indicating that the extension is approximately uniformly distributed vertically throughout the lithosphere the moho transition in this region appears to thin slightly as the degree of extension increases westwards

on the mechanics of earthquake afterslip we propose a model for earthquake afterslip based on rate and state variable friction laws in the model afterslip is attributed to the interaction of a velocity weakening region at depth within which earthquakes nucleate with an upper region of velocity strengthening frictional behavior the existence of this upper region is supported by independent seismologic observations and the results of laboratory friction experiments in our model afterslip is the result of relaxation of a stress perturbation within the velocity strengthening region which arises when an earthquake propagates into that region from below we derive the stress perturbation and its decay from the friction constitutive law using a simple 1 degree of freedom approximation for the elastic interaction between the fault and its surroundings this approximation is based on thickness averaged displacements and slip velocities within the velocity strengthening region which is assumed to slip as a rigid block coseismic and postseismic slip are coupled through the thickness averaged stiffness k of the velocity strengthening region we assume k to be inversely proportional to the thickness of this region which means that thicker velocity strengthening regions have a greater tendency to arrest coseismic slip we model the afterslip time histories of the 1966 parkfield and 1987 superstition hills earthquakes and relate the model parameters to physical parameters which may govern the rheologic behavior of the faults in accord with field observations our model predicts 1 that afterslip on some faults scales with the thickness of the unconsolidated sedimentary cover and 2 that proportionally more afterslip occurs for earthquakes in which coseismic surface slip is small compared with coseismic slip at depth velocity strengthening frictional behavior is to be expected for faults within poorly consolidated sediments and for those that contain significant gouge zones about 500 m within their shallow regions 3 5 km combining our results with those of recent laboratory friction studies indicates that relatively young faults with little accumulated fault gouge should exhibit little afterslip

seismic hazard in the marmara sea region following the 17 august 1999 izmit earthquake on 17 august 1999 a destructive magnitude 7 4 earthquake occurred 100 km east of istanbul near the city of izmit on the north anatolian fault this 1 600 km long plate boundary 1 2 slips at an average rate of 2 3 cm yr 1 refs 3 5 and historically has been the site of many devastating earthquakes 6 7 this century alone it has ruptured over 900 km of its length 6 models of earthquake induced stress change 8 combined with active fault maps 9 had been used to forecast that the epicentral area of the 1999 izmit event was indeed a likely location for the occurrence of a large earthquake 9 10 here we show that the 1999 event itself significantly modifies the stress distribution resulting from previous fault interactions 9 10 our new stress models take into account all events in the region with magnitudes greater than 6 having occurred since 1700 ref 7 as well as secular interseismic stress change constrained by gps data 11 these models provide a consistent picture of the long term spatio temporal behaviour of the north anatolian fault and indicate that two events of magnitude equal to or greater than the izmit earthquake are likely to occur within the next decades beneath the marmara sea south of istanbul

continuous measurements of crustal deformation for the 1992 landers earthquake sequence abstract we describe and attempt to interpret continuous measurements of strains and tilts made at pinon flat observatory pfo before during and after the landers and joshua tree earthquake sequences these data show substantial transient deformation following the landers mainshock with a total amplitude of several percent of the co seismic deformation and a decay time of at least several days comparing data from the many types of instruments at pfo allows us to infer possible sources for this deformation the immediate postseismic transient was nearly the same size on three long base strainmeters suggesting either broadscale deformation or local motion near one part of the observatory the latter can largely be ruled out by the similarity of many other measurements in the area covered by these strainmeters and the observations by others of significant postseismic displacements nearer the source possible mechanisms for broad scale deformation include postseismic fault slip time dependent creep in near surface rocks and elastic or thermal responses to water table changes the first two agree best with the observations from pfo but if postseismic fault slip is the source it must have been distributed differently than the co seismic slip and may have included faults other than those that ruptured seismically if one of the other mechanisms is the main source the pfo data imply that the postseismic slip must have been very much smaller than the seismic slip perhaps 2 or less no significant preseismic deformation was observed at a level of 2 10 3 of the co seismic deformation for the days to minutes before the earthquake

rapid aseismic moment release following the 5 december 1997 kronotsky kamchatka earthquake model inversions of displacements of continuously operating gps stations in kamchatka show that aseismic afterslip during 2 months following the mw 7 8 5 december 1997 kronotsky subduction earthquake released as much moment as the earthquake itself the rapidly decaying transient slip on the subduction underthrust occurred near the downdip edge of the coseismic rupture and extended laterally away from it including a region of vigorous foreshock activity a logarithmic decay function fit to the cumulative afterslip curve has a relaxation time of about 3 days rapid afterslip can contribute significantly to the moment release of partially coupled subduction zones

great slave lake shear zone canadian shield reconstructed vertical profile of a crustal scale fault zone abstract the great slave lake shear zone gslsz of the northwestern canadian shield a 25 km wide early proterozoic transcurrent dextral mylonite zone is a type example of a crustal scale fault zone profile with time 1 1 the metamorphic grade decreased from granulite to greenschist facies 2 2 the locus of high strain narrowed and jumped laterally abandoning relatively older mylonites progressively younger mylonites represent both cooler temperatures and lower pressures thus the sequence of narrowing mylonite belts represents a series of progressively shallower seated sections through the gslsz 3 3 deformation evolved through the brittle ductile transition initially producing non dilational penetrative breccias followed first by discrete non dilational faulting and subsequently by dilational quartz stockworks developing crustal scale shear zones grow to an optimum width dictated by the requirement of minimum geologically reasonable strain rates for given conditions of wall rock rheology and displacement rate independent of variations in relative plate motion mature shear zones change width and migrate laterally as a function of inferred thermally activated rheological changes within the wall rocks

crustal earthquake instability in relation to the depth variation of frictional slip properties recent stability studies using constitutive relations of the type found by dieterich ruina and others to describe frictional slip of rocks in the laboratory have provided a new explanation of the depth cutoff of shallow crustal earthquakes the class of friction laws discussed has the property that the sliding stress depends on normal stress temperature slip rate and slip history for sliding at a fixed slip rate v and fixed environment e g normal stress temperature etc the shear strength evolves toward a steady state value ss v stability analysis show that for d ss v dv 0 velocity strengthening implies stable steady state sliding at least for a broad class of constitutive laws more fully described in the paper experiments by dieterich and by tullis and weeks on westerly granite with mature sliding surfaces indicate that d ss v dv is negative at room temperature whereas higher temperature experiments by stesky show that d ss v dv becomes positive above approximately 300 c therefore in the case of the earth where temperature increases with depth the above observations seem to suggest that the depth cutoff of crustal earthquake activity can be understood in terms of the variation of the frictional response with depth from a regime with d ss v dv 0 this is not inconsistent with but rather refines the suggestion by sibson and others that the depth cutoff is due to a transition from brittle friction to ductile flow further our results show definitively that the shallow depth confinement of seismicity is compatible with a model in which deformation is localized to a fault zone extending well below the seismogenic depth the depth confinement does not require a model showing transition to a zone of broadly distributed creep flow beneath the seismogenic zone following mavko a two dimensional quasi static strike slip fault model is analyzed but using different numerical procedures and a depth variation of frictional properties based on the laboratory data mentioned above and the lachenbruch sass depth variation of temperature for the san andreas fault the resulting predictions of such features as the confinement of crustal earthquakes to shallow depths the development of locked patches the recurrence time for the seismic cycle the seismic stress drop and displacement etc are generally in agreement with the observed characteristics of large scale strike slip earthquakes along the san andreas fault calculations based on the laboratory data predict for example that stick slip nucleates around 5 7 km that large seismic motion occurs around the nucleation depth and above but diminishes gradually to zero at 13 15 km depths that rapid postseismic creep occurs over another 3 4 km depth and that at greater depths steady slip consistent with the average plate velocity is only modestly perturbed by the earthquakes occurring above the most uncertain parameter is the slip weakening distance l for evolution of fault surface state we illustrate how features of the predicted earthquake cycles vary with l over the range for which calculations are feasible

triggered slip observations of the 17 august 1999 izmit turkey earthquake using radar interferometry we use synthetic aperture radar interferometry insar to map the displacement field of the 17 august 1999 izmit earthquake which largely conforms to that predicted for an elastic upper crust we determine the earthquake source parameters and show that slip continues farther west than the mapped fault ruptures we also show that additional sub surface displacements occurred on parallel strands of the north anatolian fault zone we argue that this was caused by changes in static stress accompanying the mainshock or by the dynamic release of regional stresses

continental fault structure and the shallow earthquake source plate boundaries in continental crust are generally less sharply defined than in the oceans with seismicity spread over broad areas interplate displacements appear to be largely accommodated by networks of major fault zones a simple 2 level model for these important structures accounts for the depth distribution of most continental earthquakes and for the observed range of faulting styles and associated rock deformation textures the model consists of a seismogenic frictional slip regime overlying quasi plastic mylonite belts wherein shearing is largely accommodated aseismically due mainly to the changing response of quartz to deformation with increasing temperature shear resistance increases with depth to a peak value in the vicinity of the frictiona1 quasi plastic transition and then decreases rapidly the depth to which microseismic activity extends appears inversely related to regional heat flow and can be satisfactorily modelled as the frictional quasi plastic transition for different geotherms using laboratory determined flow laws for quartz bearing rocks larger earthquake ruptures m 5 5 tend to nucleate near the base of the seismogenic regime in the region inferred to have the highest shear resistance and concentration of distortional strain energy consideration is also given to the depression of isotherms and seismic activity in regions of thrusting and to the question of the downward continuation of major fault zones through the lithosphere decoupling of the upper crust on flat lying shear zones may accompany higher level dip slip and perhaps in some circumstances strike slip faulting being favoured by above average continental heat flow and a high quartz content in the middle or deep crust the average level of deviatoric stress within the seismogenic regime remains an outstanding problem

frictional slip of granite at hydrothermal conditions sliding on faults in much of the continental crust likely occurs at hydrothermal conditions i e at elevated temperature and elevated pressure of aqueous pore fluids yet there have been few relevant laboratory studies to measure the strength sliding behavior and friction constitutive properties of faults at hydrothermal conditions we slid laboratory granite faults containing a layer of granite powder simulated gouge velocity stepping experiments were performed at temperatures of 23 to 600 c pore fluid pressures ph2o of 0 dry and 100 mpa wet effective normal stress of 400 mpa and sliding velocities v of 0 01 to 1 m s 0 32 to 32 m yr conditions were similar to those in earlier tests on dry granite to 845 c by lockner et al 1986 the mechanical results define two regimes the first regime includes dry granite up to at least 845 and wet granite below 250 c in this regime the coefficient of friction is high 0 7 to 0 8 and depends only modestly on temperature slip rate and ph2o the second regime includes wet granite above 350 c in this regime friction decreases considerably with increasing temperature temperature weakening and with decreasing slip rate velocity strengthening these regimes correspond well to those identified in sliding tests on ultrafine quartz we infer that one or more fluid assisted deformation mechanisms are activated in the second hydrothermal regime and operate concurrently with cataclastic flow slip in the first cool and or dry regime is characterized by pervasive shearing and particle size reduction slip in the second hot and wet regime is localized primarily onto narrow shear bands adjacent to the gouge rock interfaces weakness of these boundary shears may result either from an abundance of phyllosilicates preferentially aligned for easy dislocation glide or from a dependence of strength on gouge particle size major features of the granite data set can be fit reasonably well by a rate and temperature dependent three regime friction constitutive model chester this issue we extrapolate the experimental data and model fit in order to estimate steady state shear strength versus depth along natural slipping faults for sliding rates as low as 31 mm yr we do this for two end member cases in the first case pore pressure is assumed hydrostatic at all depths shallow crustal strength in this case is similar to that calculated in previous work from room temperature friction data while at depths below about 9 13 km depending on slip rate strength becomes less sensitive to depth but sensitive to slip rate in the second case pore pressure is assumed to be near lithostatic at depths below 5 km strength is low at all depths in this case 20 mpa in agreement with observations of weak faults such as the san andreas the predicted depth of transition from velocity weakening to velocity strengthening lies at about 13 km depth for a slip rate of 31 mm yr in rough agreement with the seismic aseismic transition depth observed on mature continental faults these results highlight the importance of fluid assisted deformation processes active in faults at depth and the need for laboratory studies on the roles of additional factors such as fluid chemistry large displacements higher concentrations of phyllosilicates and time dependent fault healing

geodetic observations of postseismic creep in the decade after the 1999 izmit earthquake turkey implications for a shallow slip deficit the relationship between aseismic slip and tectonic loading is important for understanding both the pattern of strain accumulation along a fault and its ability to generate large earthquakes we investigate the spatial distribution and temporal evolution of aseismic creep on the western north anatolian fault naf using time series analysis of envisat interferometric synthetic aperture radar insar data covering the full extent of the 1999 izmit and duzce earthquake ruptures and spanning 2002 2010 discontinuities in the line of sight velocity across the fault imply that fault creep reaches the earth s surface at an average fault parallel rate of 5 mm yr along an 80 km section of the naf by combining insar and published gps velocities we are able to extract the vertical and east west components of motion and show that the adapazari basin is subsiding at a rate of 6 mm yr vertical motions have biased previous estimates of creep in this region the displacement time series close to the fault is consistent with an afterslip model based on rate and state friction which predicts a rapid deceleration in fault creep rate after the izmit earthquake to a near steady state 5 mm yr after 5 years projecting our model 200 years into the future we find that the cumulative displacement of 1 1 3 m is insufficient to account for the shallow coseismic slip deficit observed in previous studies distributed off fault deformation in the shallow crust or transient episodes of faster slip are likely required to release some of the long term strain during the earthquake cycle

time dependent distributed afterslip on and deep below the izmit earthquake rupture surface deformation transients measured with the global positioning system during the 87 days between the 17 august 1999 izmit earthquake and the 12 november 1999 duzce earthquake indicate rapidly decaying aseismic fault slip on and well below the coseismic rupture elastic model inversions for time dependent distributed fault slip using a network inversion filter approach show that afterslip was highest between and below the regions of maximum coseismic slip and propa gated downward to or even below the base of the crust maximum afterslip rates decayed from greater than 2 m yr immediately after the i zmit earthquake to about 1 2 m yr just prior to the duzce earthquake maximum afterslip occurred below the eastern karadere rupture segment and near the i zmit hypocenter afterslip in the upper 16 km decayed more rapidly than that below the seismogenic zone these observations are consistent with a phase of rapid aseismic fault slip concentrated near the base of the seismogenic zone continued loading from the rapid deep afterslip along the eastern rupture zone is a plausible mechanism that helped trigger the nearby mw 7 2 12 november duzce earthquake

estimating slip distribution for the izmit mainshock from coseismic gps ers 1 radarsat and spot measurements we use four geodetic satellite systems global positioning system gps european remote sensing ers radarsat and satellite pour l9observation de la terre spot to measure the permanent deformation field produced by the izmit earthquake of 17 august 1999 we emphasize measurements from interferometric analysis of synthetic aperture radar sar images acquired by ers and radarsat and their geodetic uncertainties the primary seismological use of these data is to determine earthquake source parameters such as the distribution of slip and the fault geometry after accounting for one month9s postseismic deformation tropospheric delay and orbital gradients we use these data to estimate the distribution of slip at the time of the izmit mainshock the different data sets resolve different aspects of the distribution of slip at depth although these estimates agree to first order with those derived from surface faulting teleseismic recordings and strong motion careful comparison reveals differences of 40 in seismic moment we assume smooth parameterization for the fault geometry and a standard elastic dislocation model the root mean square residual scatter is 25 mm and 11 mm for the ers and radarsat range changes respectively our estimate of the moment from a joint inversion of the four geodetic data sets is m 0 1 84 10 20 n m a moment magnitude of m w 7 50 these values are lower than other estimates using more realistic layered earth models given the differences between the various models we conclude that the real errors in the estimated slip distributions are at the level of 1 m the prudent geophysical conclusion is that coseismic slip during the izmit earthquake tapers gradually from approximately 2 m under the hersek delta to 1 m at a point 10 km west of it we infer that the yalova segment west of the hersek delta may remain capable of significant slip in a future earthquake

surface fault breaks aftershock distribution and rupture process of the 17 august 1999 izmit turkey earthquake the results obtained from field studies of surface fault breaks on land aftershock studies and analysis of complex teleseismic body waves of the 17 august 1999 izmit earthquake m w 7 4 indicate that the northern strand of the north anatolian fault zone had been ruptured between 29 1 e and 31 1 e with a maximum total fault rupture length of about 200 km the 12 november 1999 duzce earthquake m w 7 2 extended the surface fault break an additional 41 km to the east alignment of the aftershocks delineates the fault rupture on land and extends it to the west of the hersek delta well into the marmara sea to 29 1 e longitude we have identified six fault rupture segments two of them are located to the west of the hersek delta and four are located to the east rupture process analysis suggests two stages of rupture separated in space and time with an estimated total scalar seismic moment of 2 42 1020 n m the first stage initiated at the epicenter near izmit and propagated asymmetrically first eastward and then westward with a total scalar moment of 1 6 1020 n m showing predominantly right lateral strike slip faulting followed by a minor subevent extending the rupture further east the second stage took place at the western and eastern ends of the source area rupturing two segments within the marmara sea west of the hersek delta and two segments between akyazi and golyaka the rupture process analysis indicates that six fault segments were ruptured during the mainshock four of them on land and two within the marmara sea the major moment release of 1 2 1020 n m is found on the 64 km long sapanca segments located between the easternmost tip of the gulf of izmit and akyazi with an estimated maximum slip of 5 3 m the moment release on the golcuk segment with a length of 30 km is about 3 7 1019 n m and the estimated slip on this segment is 4 1 m rupture process analysis suggests two 20 km long segments between akyazi and golyaka striking n70 e the scalar moment releases on these segments are 2 7 1019 and 1 9 1019 n m with estimated offsets of 2 2 and 1 6 m respectively the last two subevents took place to the west of the hersek delta on the yalova segment and within the marmara sea with estimated offsets of 1 3 and 1 0 m respectively manuscript received 20 august 2000

poroelastic rebound along the landers 1992 earthquake surface rupture maps of surface displacement following the 1992 landers california earthquake generated by interferometric processing of ers 1 synthetic aperture radar sar images reveal effects of various postseismic deformation processes along the 1992 surface rupture the large scale pattern of the postseismic displacement field includes large lobes mostly visible on the west side of the fault comparable in shape with the lobes observed in the coseismic displacement field this pattern and the steep displacement gradient observed near the emerson camp rock fault cannot be simply explained by afterslip on deep sections of the 1992 rupture models show that horizontal slip occurring on a buried dislocation in a poisson s material produces a characteristic quadripole pattern in the surface displacement field with several centimeters of vertical motion at distances of 10 20 km from the fault yet this pattern is not observed in the postseismic interferograms as previously proposed to explain local strain in the fault step overs peltzer et al 1996b we argue that poroelastic rebound caused by pore fluid flow may also occur over greater distances from the fault compensating the vertical ground shift produced by fault afterslip such a rebound is explained by the gradual change of the crustal rocks poisson s ratio value from undrained coseismic to drained postseismic conditions as pore pressure gradients produced by the earthquake dissipate using the poisson s ratio values of 0 27 and 0 31 for the drained and undrained crustal rocks respectively elastic dislocation models show that the combined contributions of afterslip on deep sections of the fault and poroelastic rebound can account for the range change observed in the sar data and the horizontal displacement measured at global positioning system gps sites along a 60 km long transect across the emerson fault savage and svarc 1997 using a detailed surface slip distribution on the homestead valley kickapoo and johnson valley faults we modeled the poroelastic rebound in the homestead valley pull apart a poisson s ratio value of 0 35 for the undrained gouge rocks in the fault zone is required to account for the observed surface uplift in the 3 5 years following the earthquake this large value implies a seismic velocity ratio vp vs of 2 1 consistent with the observed low vs values of fault zone guided waves at shallow depth li et al 1997 the sar data also reveal postseismic creep along shallow patches of the eureka peak and burnt mountain faults with a characteristic decay time of 0 8 years coseismic dilatant hardening locking process followed by post seismic pore pressure controlled fault creep provide a plausible mechanism to account for the decay time of the observed slip rate along this section of the fault

coseismic and postseismic fault slip for the 17 august 1999 m 7 5 izmit turkey earthquake we use global positioning system gps observations and elastic half space models to estimate the distribution of coseismic and postseismic slip along the izmit earthquake rupture our results indicate that large coseismic slip reaching 5 7 meters is confined to the upper 10 kilometers of the crust correlates with structurally distinct fault segments and is relatively low near the hypocenter continued surface deformation during the first 75 days after the earthquake indicates an aseismic fault slip of as much as 0 43 meters on and below the coseismic rupture these observations are consistent with a transition from unstable episodic large earthquakes to stable fault creep sliding at the base of the seismogenic zone

what can gps data tell us about the dynamics of post seismic deformation summary this paper describes differences in time varying post seismic deformation due to after slip and viscoelastic relaxation following large strike slip earthquakes and how these differences may be exploited to characterize the configuration and rheology of aseismically deforming material in the subsurface the analysis involves two steps first near field time dependent post seismic deformation characteristics of a typical mw 7 4 strike slip earthquake is defined based on analysis of gps data from three recent earthquakes secondly this earthquake is modelled assuming uniform slip along a rectangular surface and several classes of after slip and viscoelastic relaxation models that can reproduce the evolution of early post seismic displacements with time at a near field reference point are developed postseismic displacements and velocities away from the reference point where the differences are greatest and thus most likely to be distinguished with gps are compared i find that displacements from a judiciously designed network of continuous or frequently occupied campaign mode gps sites are sufficiently precise to distinguish linear viscoelastic relaxation from after slip on a vertical surface extending the coseismic rupture furthermore both the thickness and viscosity of a relaxing linearly viscoelastic layer may be identified to maximize what post seismic gps surveys can tell us particularly concerning potential relaxation of low viscosity layers in the crust and or upper mantle some gps sites should be located along strike beyond the rupture tip also far field gps sites should be occupied as frequently as sites close to the rupture

fault stability inferred from granite sliding experiments at hydrothermal conditions seismicity on crustal faults is concentrated in the depth interval 1 3 to 12 15km tse and rice 1986 suggested that the lower bound on seismicity is due to a switch with increasing temperature from velocity weakening destabilizing to velocity strengthening stabilizing friction they inferred this transition from friction data for dry granite however pore fluids exist at elevated temperatures throughout the crust and may strongly influence strength and sliding behavior we present new data from sliding experiments on granite at elevated t 23 to 600 plus elevated ph2o 100 mpa our results show velocity strengthening at room temperature but velocity weakening from 100 to 350 c except at 250 from 350 to 600 there are systematic trends from velocity weakening to strong velocity strengthening and from high to low friction neither trend was seen in tests on dry granite the velocity dependence data imply the potential for unstable slip in the interval 100 to 350 using a geotherm to map temperature to depth this interval closely matches the observed earthquake distribution

crustal deformation in great california earthquake cycles periodic crustal deformation associated with repeated strike slip earthquakes is computed for the following model a depth l h extending downward from the earth s surface at a transform boundary between uniform elastic lithospheric plates of thickness h is locked between earthquakes it slips an amount consistent with remote plate velocity vpl after each lapse of earthquake cycle time tcy lower portions of the fault zone at the boundary slip continuously so as to maintain constant resistive shear stress the plates are coupled at their base to a maxwellian viscoelastic asthenosphere through which steady deep seated mantle motions compatible with plate velocity are transmitted to the surface plates the coupling is described approximately through a generalized elsasser model we argue that the model gives a more realistic physical description of tectonic loading including the time dependence of deep slip and crustal stress buildup throughout the earthquake cycle than do simpler kinematic models in which loading is represented as imposed uniform dislocation slip on the fault below the locked zone parameters of the model are chosen to fit seismic and geologic constraints and the apparent time dependence of surface strain rates along presently locked traces of the 1857 and 1906 san andreas ruptures we fix vpl 35 mm yr tcy 160 years and l 9 11 km based on earthquake nucleation depths the geodetic data are then found to be described reasonably within the context of a model that is locally uniform along strike and symmetric about a single san andreas fault strand by lithosphere thickness h 20 30 km and elsasser relaxation time tr 10 16 years we therefore suggest that the asthenosphere appropriate to describe crustal deformation on the earthquake cycle time scale lies in the lower crust and perhaps crust mantle transition zone and has an effective viscosity between about 2 1018 and 1019 pa s depending on the thickness assigned to the asthenospheric layer predictions based on the chosen set of parameters are also consistent with data on variations of contemporary surface strain and displacement rates as a function of distance from the 1857 and 1906 rupture traces although the fit is degraded by asymmetry relative to the fault and by slip on adjacent fault strands

joint inversion of insar gps teleseismic and strong motion data for the spatial and temporal distribution of earthquake slip application to the 1999 izmit mainshock the space time distribution of slip of the 17 august 1999 izmit earthquake is investigated by inverting synthetic aperture radar sar interferometry and global positioning system gps data together with teleseismic broadband and near field strong motion records surface offsets are used as an added constraint special emphasis is given to analysis of the resolution of the different data sets we use a four segment finite fault model and a nonlinear inversion scheme allowing slip to vary in amplitude direction and duration as well as variable rupture velocity from the inversion of synthetic data we find that the best spatial resolution can be expected in the upper half of the fault model above 12 km where coverage of the interferometric sar data is good western half of the rupture and near the gps and strong motion stations teleseismic data are found to have a lower resolution that is more evenly distributed over the fault model the joint inversion of all the data sets has an increased resolving power compared with the separate inversions and gives a more robust description of the space and time distribution of slip our study shows the importance of resolution tests in evaluating the reliability of earthquake kinematic models and it confirms that an excellent fit of a single kind of data does not necessarily imply a good retrieval of the kinematic properties of an earthquake the izmit rupture which is almost pure right lateral strike slip faulting is dominated by the bilateral breaking of a central asperity located between 29 7 e about 10 km west of the city of golcuk and 30 4 e eastern margin of sapanka lake with slip reaching 6 8 m in the depth range 6 12 km the western termination of the rupture is found near the city of yalova but large slip ends around 29 7 e about 10 km east of hersek delta a second area of large slip is required by all the data sets further east toward the city of duzce between 30 7 e and 31 1 e karadere and duzce faults this eastern slip zone which is separated from the main central asperity by an area of greatly reduced slip is less well constrained by the data however a strong motion station near the city of duzce helps to locate a high slip patch near 31 1 e in the depth range 6 12 km the total seismic moment resulting from the joint inversion is 2 4 1027 dyne cm most of the energy release occurred in a short time less than 15 sec corresponding to the bilateral breaking of the central asperity rupture propagation is relatively uniform and fast toward the west with a rupture velocity close to 3 5 km sec propagation of large slip toward the east is initially slower but it accelerates during a short time interval about 10 sec after rupture nucleation eastward progression then slows down to less than 2 km sec after 15 sec and rupture almost vanishes in amplitude ca 20 sec after initiation rupture propagation then proceeds on the easternmost karadere and duzce fault segments east of 30 7 e from 22 to ca 50 sec supershear rupture propagation is not required for modeling the waveforms considered in this study the hypocenter of the duzce earthquake which occurred 3 months later 12 november 1999 m w 7 2 is located in the immediate vicinity of the easternmost slip patch of the izmit earthquake manuscript received 28 july 2000

postseismic deformation near the izmit earthquake 17 august 1999 m 7 5 rupture zone we present and interpret the results of postseismic global positioning system monitoring of the first 298 days following the 17 august 1999 izmit earth quake whereas the data suggest some spatial and temporal complexity in the post seismic motions the overall pattern can be characterized by time dependent relaxa tion functions and suggests exponential decay with an estimated 57 day relaxation time the very rapid deformation during the first few weeks following the mainshock suggests rapid afterslip on and below the coseismic rupture segments the exponen tial decay of the postseismic deformations through the end of the observation period suggests contributions from the lower crustal viscoelastic relaxation

coulomb stress perturbation after great earthquakes in the sumatran subduction zone potential impacts in the surrounding region abstract the sumatran subduction zone has been seismically very active compared with other major subduction zones in the world since 2004 a sequence of large earthquakes ruptured along the trench including the 2004 mw 9 2 sumatra andaman the 2005 mw 8 6 nias simeulue the 2007 mw 8 4 bengkulu the 2010 mw 7 8 mentawai tsunami earthquakes and numerous moderate and small events these earthquakes released stress over tens of seconds to minutes disturbing the lithosphere and asthenosphere across a broad region as earthquake introduced stress disturbance can trigger tremendous aftershocks and sometimes precipitate large earthquakes in their vicinity gaining a detailed picture of spatial and temporal stress evolution on the fault and its neighboring faults is crucial for seismic forecasting here we have developed spatiotemporal coulomb stress models for the sumatran region which includes the sumatran subduction zone and the sumatran fault using a well studied postseismic model this postseismic model is constrained by decade long time series of geodetic observations from the sumatran gps array sugar and from tide gauge data in southeast asia we show that coulomb stress changes imparted by co and post seismic processes of previous great ruptures could well explain the temporal and spatial connection between seismicity and stress evolution most importantly our results reveal that the stress in the mentawai seismic gap of the sumatran subduction zone was loaded by more than two bars these stress perturbations could potentially trigger the rupture of the mentawai seismic gap which was already overdue in the last seismic cycle now the likelihood for the failure of this gap is even higher than before 2004 we also find that along the sumatran fault stress has increased to more than one bar which may explain the surrounding seismicity consequently we highlight the considerable seismic hazard and associated tsunami threat to the neighboring regions

mobility of continental mantle evidence from postseismic geodetic observations following the 1992 landers earthquake the crust around the rupture zone of the 1992 landers earthquake has continued to deform in the years following the earthquake at rates 3 times greater than pre earthquake rates we use a combination of global positioning system gps and synthetic aperture radar insar data collected during a 3 year epoch following the earthquake in order to investigate postseismic mechanisms responsible for the high transient velocities in order to maximize the potential signal from viscoelastic relaxation we evaluate and model postseismic relaxation following the first few months of documented accelerated deformation the combination of gps and insar data allows us to establish viscoelastic relaxation of the lower crust and upper mantle as the dominant postseismic process and to discriminate among possible viscoelastic models the data particularly require the presence of a highly ductile uppermost mantle beneath the central mojave domain with temperature between the wet and dry basalt solidus this is consistent with independent seismic and geochemical inferences of a regionally warm uppermost mantle further consideration of seismic velocity variations in conjunction with faulting patterns within the mojave desert suggests that the primary faulting characteristics of the mojave desert namely the pervasive late cenozoic deformation within the eastern california shear zone versus the near absence of faults in the western mojave domain are controlled by the rheology of the uppermost mantle

postseismic deformation associated with the 1992 m ω 7 3 landers earthquake southern california following the 1992 m 7 3 landers earthquake a linear array of 10 geodetic monuments at roughly 5 km spacing was established across the emerson fault segment of the landers rupture the array trends perpendicular to the local strike of the fault segment and extends about 30 km on either side of it the array was surveyed by global positioning system 0 034 0 048 0 381 1 27 1 88 2 60 and 3 42 years after the landers earthquake to measure both the spatial and temporal character of the postearthquake relaxation the temporal behavior is described roughly by a short term decay time 84 23 days exponential relaxation superimposed upon an apparently linear trend because the linear trend represents motions much more rapid than the observed preseismic motions we attribute that trend to a slower decay time greater than 5 years postseismic relaxation the curvature of which cannot be resolved in the short run 3 4 years of postseismic data about 100 mm of right lateral displacement and 50 mm of fault normal displacement accumulated across the geodetic array in the 3 4 year interval covered by the postseismic surveys those displacements are attributed to postseismic right lateral slip in the depth interval 10 to 30 km on the downward extension of the rupture trace the right lateral slip amounted to about 1 m directly beneath the geodetic array and the fault normal displacement is apparently primarily a consequence of the curvature of the rupture these conclusions are based upon dislocation models fit to the observed deformation however no dislocation model was found with rms residuals as small as the expected observational error

space and time evolution of rupture and faulting during the 1999 izmit turkey earthquake we use the records of the ground motion obtained at near fault accelerometers to study the space and time evolution of rupture and faulting during the izmit earthquake we find that the rupture propagated at the sub rayleigh speed of about 3 km sec on the western and eastern segments of the fault but that the central segment izmit sapanca lake sakarya nearly 50 km long broke at the supershear speed of about 4 8 km sec this value within the range of uncertainties is the one theoretically predicted sqrt 2 v mathrm s in fracture dynamics for stable shear crack growth at intersonic speed we infer an average fault slip of about 2 9 m over a total rupture length of about 150 km with the largest values of up to 6 m occurring in the golcuk area to the west and in the sakarya region to the east the strong motion data also indicate that the slip diminished gradually to the west beyond the hersek peninsula over about 30 km whereas it stopped abruptly at depth at the termination of the eastern karadere segment the slip duration is between 2 and 4 sec except in the hypocentral area which slipped in about 1 sec the seismic moment inferred is about 2 5 10 20 n m

the major asperities of the 1999 mw 7 4 izmit earthquake defined by the microseismicity of the two decades before it

elastodynamic analysis for slow tectonic loading with spontaneous rupture episodes on faults with rate and state dependent friction we present an efficient and rigorous numerical procedure for calculating the elastodynamic response of a fault subjected to slow tectonic loading processes of long duration within which there are episodes of rapid earthquake failure this is done for a general class of rate and state dependent friction laws with positive direct velocity effect the algorithm allows us to treat accurately within a single computational procedure loading intervals of thousands of years and to calculate for each earthquake episode initially aseismic accelerating slip prior to dynamic rupture the rupture propagation itself rapid post seismic deformation which follows and also ongoing creep slippage throughout the loading period in velocity strengthening fault regions the methodology is presented using the two dimensional 2 d antiplane spectral formulation and can be readily extended to the 2 d in plane and 3 d spectral formulations and with certain modifications to the space time boundary integral formulations as well as to their discretized development using finite difference or finite element methods the methodology can be used to address a number of important issues such as fault operation under low overall stress interaction of dynamic rupture propagation with pore pressure development patterns of rupture propagation in events nucleated naturally as a part of a sequence the earthquake nucleation process earthquake sequences on faults with heterogeneous frictional properties and or normal stress and others the procedure is illustrated for a 2 d crustal strike slip fault model with depth variable properties for lower values of the state evolution distance of the friction law small events appear the nucleation phases of the small and large events are very similar suggesting that the size of an event is determined by the conditions on the fault segments the event is propagating into rather than by the nucleation process itself we demonstrate the importance of incorporating slow tectonic loading with elastodynamics by evaluating two simplified approaches one with the slow tectonic loading but no wave effects and the other with all dynamic effects included but much higher loading rate

global positioning system constraints on plate kinematics and dynamics in the eastern mediterranean and caucasus we present and interpret global positioning system gps measurements of crustal motions for the period 1988 1997 at 189 sites extending east west from the caucasus mountains to the adriatic sea and north south from the southern edge of the eurasian plate to the northern edge of the african plate sites on the northern arabian platform move 18 2 mm yr at n25 5 w relative to eurasia less than the nuvel 1a circuit closure rate 25 1 mm yr at n21 7 w preliminary motion estimates 1994 1997 for stations located in egypt on the northeastern part of africa show northward motion at 5 6 2 mm yr also slower than nuvel ia estimates 10 1 mm yr at n2 4 e eastern turkey is characterized by distributed deformation while central turkey is characterized by coherent plate motion internal deformation of 2 mm yr involving westward displacement and counterclockwise rotation of the anatolian plate the anatolian plate is de coupled from eurasia along the right lateral strike slip north anatolian fault naf we derive a best fitting euler vector for anatolia eurasia motion of 30 7 0 8 n 32 6 0 4 e 1 2 0 1 myr the euler vector gives an upper bound for naf slip rate of 24 1 mm yr we determine a preliminary gps arabia anatolia euler vector of 32 9 1 2 n 40 3 1 1 e 0 8 0 2 myr and an upper bound on left lateral slip on the east anatolian fault eaf of 9 1 mm yr the central and southern aegean is characterized by coherent motion internal deformation of 2 mm yr toward the sw at 30 1 mm yr relative to eurasia stations in the se aegean deviate significantly from the overall motion of the southern aegean showing increasing velocities toward the trench and reaching 10 1 mm yr relative to the southern aegean as a whole

estimates of seismic potential in the marmara sea region from block models of secular deformation constrained by global positioning system measurements we model the geodetically observed secular velocity field in north western turkey with a block model that accounts for recoverable elastic strain ac cumulation the block model allows us to estimate internally consistent fault slip rates and locking depths the northern strand of the north anatolian fault zone nafz carries approximately four times as much right lateral motion 24 mm yr as does the southern strand in the marmara sea region the data show strain accu mulation to be highly localized we find that a straight fault geometry with a shallow locking depth of 6 7 km fits the observed global positioning system velocities better than does a stepped fault geometry that follows the northern and eastern edges of the sea this shallow locking depth suggests that the moment release associated with an earthquake on these faults should be smaller by a factor of 2 3 than previously inferred assuming a locking depth of 15 km online material an updated version of velocity field data

gps and geologic estimates of the tectonic activity in the marmara sea region nw anatolia a dense network of 52 global positioning system gps sites is used to determine the velocity field and strain rate pattern at the western end of the north anatolian fault zone nafz in the marmara sea region nw anatolia based on four gps campaigns carried out biannually between 1990 and 1996 the detailed kinematic field of crustal motion is calculated the southernmost station shows an average rate of 22 3 mm yr oriented westward relative to istanbul eurasia this value is indicative of the dextral strike slip motion of nw anatolia relative to the black sea the gps velocity field reveals that the sites located on the thrace black sea block show negligible motion relative to istanbul the gps based deformation pattern of three sections crossing the westward prolongation of the nafz is compared with neotectonic data both the gps and the neotectonic data give clear evidence that most of the deformation occurs along a relatively narrow e w oriented zone this belt extends from the single fault trace of the nafz through the gulf of izmit the marmara sea the arkoy region and the gulf of saros into the north aegean trough nat in addition the cross sections show the increasing influence of the n s oriented extension in the aegean sea region from the comparison of the directions and rates of shear and normal strain deduced from gps data with geologic and seismic observations we conclude that the most active zone of dextral shear follows a line along mudurnu valley the northern marmara sea and the saros trough where it joins the nat

crustal structure and possible anisotropy in turkey from seismic surface wave dispersion summary the velocity structure of two regions of turkey are determined using single station measurements of rayleigh and love wave group velocities in the period range 8 50s a differential inversion scheme yields models for turkey in which crustal and upper mantle shear wave velocities are slower than those of most of europe comparisons of upper mantle shear wave velocities we have obtained with reported p velocities leads to poisson s ratio values in the upper mantle between 0 29 and 0 30 for eastern turkey and between 0 27 and 0 31 for western turkey crustal velocities are slightly slower and upper mantle velocities are slightly faster in western turkey than in eastern turkey the crust mantle boundary obtained in our studies is gradational but if a shear velocity of 4 2 km s l is taken to define the upper mantle then the crust appears to be about 40 km thick throughout all of turkey a sharp crust mantle boundary may occur but cannot be resolved the data of this study require neither a low velocity zone in the upper mantle nor polarization anisotropy in the crust or upper mantle azimuthal variations of rayleigh and love wave group velocities in western turkey are consistent with velocities predicted by an azimuthally anisotropic upper crust in which vertical cracks are orientated in an approximate e w direction this interpretation is consistent with geological information fault plane solutions lineations mapped from satellite observations and reported heat flow values but the possibility that these variations are caused by lateral changes of velocity in the crust of western turkey cannot be completely ruled out at the present time

the earth s palaeorotation postglacial rebound and lower mantle viscosity from analysis of ancient chinese eclipse records of the forces changing the earth s rotation tidal braking and postglacial rebound predominate at a timescale 102yr hide and dickey 1991 dickey 1992 analysis of ancient eclipse records has given values for the clock error t and the time derivative of the earth s dynamic oblateness j 2 for the past 3 300 yr since t at ut ct 2 where at is atomic cesium clock time ut is universal earth rotation time and t is the number of centuries before 1800 the oldest data have the most weight sunrise and sunset eclipses are especially valuable as they can be retrospectively timed