a continuum of stress strength and slip in the cascadia subduction zone movement of the down going oceanic plate in subduction zones is accommodated by earthquakes slow slip and free slip with increasing depth analysis of accompanying tremor reveals a continuum of slow slip events in the cascadia subduction zone which suggests that deep free slip of the subducted plate may cause stress to be gradually transferred up the plate interface towards the seismogenic zone

thermal structure and seismicity of subducting lithosphere it has recently been suggested that the mechanical behaviour of the oceanic and continental uppermost mantle depends on temperature alone and that there is no strong evidence for compositional effects it seems in the majority of cases that if uppermost mantle temperatures exceed 600 c any deformation that occurs does so in the absence of significant seismicity this observation apparently applies irrespective of whether that mantle material underlies an ocean or a continent this paper investigates whether the same behaviour exists for earthquakes occurring in descending lithospheric slabs namely whether there is some limiting temperature above which deformation occurs without significant seismicity and whether that limiting temperature is consistent with the behaviour seen in the uppermost mantle beneath oceans and continents by re examining the thermal structure in subducting slabs accounting for the temperature dependence of the relevant physical parameters teleseismically recorded seismicity is shown to be limited to material having potential temperatures less than not vert similar570 600 c or homologous temperatures less than not vert similar0 42 the exceptions to this pattern occur in the subhorizontally subducting regions of the nazca plate in which temperatures are probably affected by the relatively cold overriding plate

constitutive relationships and physical basis of fault strength due to flash heating 1 we develop a model of fault strength loss resulting from phase change at asperity contacts due to flash heating that considers a distribution of contact sizes and nonsteady state evolution of fault strength with displacement laboratory faulting experiments conducted at high sliding velocities which show dramatic strength reduction below the threshold for bulk melting are well fit by the model the predicted slip speed for the onset of weakening is in the range of 0 05 to 2 m s qualitatively consistent with the limited published observations for this model earthquake stress drops and effective shear fracture energy should be linearly pressure dependent whereas the onset speed may be pressure independent or weakly pressure dependent on the basis of the theory flash weakening is expected to produce large dynamic stress drops small effective shear fracture energy and undershoot estimates of the threshold slip speed stress drop and fracture energy are uncertain due to poor knowledge of the average contact dimension shear zone thickness and gouge particle size at seismogenic depths

shear stresses on megathrusts implications for mountain building behind subduction zones 1 shear stresses on a subduction megathrust play an important role in determining the forces available for mountain building adjacent to a subduction zone in this study the temperatures and shear stresses on megathrusts in 11 subduction zones around the pacific rim hikurangi tonga izu ogasawara western nankai northeastern japan aleutians western alaska cascadia northern chile southern chile and se asia northern sumatra have been determined the main constraint is that vertical normal stresses beneath the highlands behind the subduction zone are nearly equal to horizontal normal stresses in the plane of a trench or arc normal section for a typical brittle and ductile megathrust rheology frictional shear stress gz for depth z and ductile shear stress a exp b rt at temperature t where a b are rheological parameters treated as constants rheological constants common to all the megathrusts crust mantle b are determined by simultaneously solving for the force balance in the overlying wedge and megathrust thermal structure using a simplex minimization algorithm taking account of the induced mantle corner flow at depth 65 15 km 2 and constant radiogenic heating 0 65 0 3 w m 3 2 throughout the crust the a constants are solved individually for each subduction zone assuming that the maximum depth of interplate slip earthquakes marks the brittle ductile transition the best fit solution shows two groupings of megathrusts with most subduction zones having a low mean shear stress in the range 7 15 mpa crust 0 032 0 006 mantle 0 019 0 004 and unable to support elevations 2 5 km for a typical frictional sliding coefficient 0 5 the low effective coefficients of friction suggest high pore fluid pressures at 95 lithostatic pressure tonga and northern chile require higher shear stresses with crust 0 095 0 024 mantle 0 026 0 007 suggesting slightly lower pore fluid pressures at 81 lithostatic ductile shear in the crust is poorly resolved but in the mantle appears to show a strong power law dependency with b 36 18 kj mol 1 amantle values are sensitive to the precise value of b but are in the range 1 20 kpa the power law exponent n for mantle flow is poorly constrained but is likely to be large n 4 the brittle ductile transition in the crust occurs at temperatures in the range 370 c 512 c usually close to the base of the crust and in the mantle at much lower temperatures 180 c 300 c possibly reflecting a marked change in pore fluid pressure or quasi ductile and subfrictional properties in subduction zones where the subducted slab is older than 50 ma a significant proportion of the integrated shear force on the megathrust is taken up where it cuts the mantle and temperatures are 300 c in much younger subduction zones the stress transmission is confined mainly to the crust the shear stresses particularly in the crust may be kept low by some sort of lubricant such as abundant water rich trench fill which lowers the frictional sliding coefficient or effective viscosity and or raises pore fluid pressure the unusual high stress subduction zone in northern chile lacks significant trench fill and may be poorly lubricated with a mean shear stress 37 mpa required to support elevations 4 km in the high andes however where the crust is thin in sediment starved and poorly lubricated subduction zones such as tonga the mean shear stress will still be low sediment may lubricate megathrusts accommodating underthrusting of continental crust such as in the himalayas or eastern central andes which have a low mean shear stress 15 mpa

heat sources for tertiary metamorphism and anatexis in the annapurna manaslu region central nepal following the collision of india with southern tibet crustal rocks of the leading edge of india 1 underwent regional metamorphism to upper amphibolite grade 2 melted locally to produce anatectic granitoids and 3 were sheared and thrust onto lower grade rock along the main central thrust yielding an inverted metamorphic sequence this sequence is exemplified in the annapurna manaslu region we use simple physical calculations to examine the heat sources involved in the different phases of metamorphism the regional metamorphism apparently is due to the burial of the northern edge of india beneath the accretionary prism along the southern edge of tibet the observed temperatures and pressures of this first phase of metamorphism are consistent with the thermal relaxation during the 10 30 m y before slip on the main central thrust began of thickened continental lithosphere whose original surface heat flux was between 50 and 70 mw m 2 the release of water from the footwall of the main central thrust apparently facilitated melting of the overlying crust in the second phase such melting could have occurred in the first million years or so of thrusting if warm 550 650 c crust in the footwall contained the necessary water if melting did not occur in the earliest stages of slip on the main central thrust dissipative heating with shear stresses of 10 to 100 mpa is required for temperatures near the main central thrust to have remained high enough to generate melting above the fault during the underthrusting of cold material the thickness 6 8 km of the zone of inverted isograds associated with the fault if undisrupted and due solely to thermal diffusion implies that the time required to carry the rocks preserving the inverted metamorphism from the surface to depths of 30 40 km was 4 8 m y the apparent inverted temperature gradients about 10 25 c km in this zone can be understood as the combined result of two processes diffusion of heat from hot rock thrust over cold rock expunged the original temperature gradient near the fault and could have created an inverse gradient of 10 20 c km the peak temperatures in such a zone however would not have exceeded about 350 c without an additional source of heat dissipative heating at shear stresses of about 100 mpa can account for peak temperatures in excess of 600 c during slip on the fault and would have contributed as much as 13 c km to the inverse gradient although inversion of metamorphic isograds could have occurred as a result of deformation within the main central thrust zone the high temperatures during slip on this zone still require dissipative heating unless the duration of slip exceeded 25 m y

heat flow distribution and thermal structure of the nankai subduction zone off the kii peninsula detailed heat flow surveys were carried out in the central part of the nankai trough southeast of the kii peninsula off kumano for investigation of the thermal structure of the subducting plate interface at stations in the kumano trough forearc basin and its vicinity long term monitoring of temperature profiles in surface sediments was conducted because bottom water temperature variations btv significantly disturb subbottom sediment temperatures heat flow values were successfully determined at seven stations by removing the influence of btv from temperature records for 300 to 400 days the surface heat flow data were combined with estimates from depths of methane hydrate bottom simulating reflectors to construct a heat flow profile across the subduction zone heat flow decreases from 90 110 mw m2 on the floor of the nankai trough to 50 60 mw m2 at around 30 km from the deformation front while it is rather uniform 40 60 mw m2 in the kumano trough the values measured on the nankai trough floor are concordant with the value estimated from the age of the subducting philippine sea plate about 20 m y taking into account the effect of sedimentation the obtained heat flow profile was used to constrain thermal models of the subduction zone the subsurface thermal structure was calculated using a two dimensional steady state model in which the frictional heating along the plate interface and the radioactive heat production are treated as unknown parameters comparison of the calculated surface heat flow in the kumano trough with the observed data indicates that the effective coefficient of friction is small about 0 1 or less and thus the shear stress on the plate interface is very low in this subduction zone

full interseismic locking of the nankai and japan west kurile subduction zones an analysis of uniform elastic strain accumulation in japan constrained by permanent gps we analyze permanent global positioning system gps data obtained over japan between 1995 and 1997 to estimate the instantaneous interseismic coupling ratio of the seismogenic zones due to the subduction of the pacific and philippine sea plates below the japanese islands we first derive the gps strain rate fields that characterize the crustal deformation of southern and northern japan and invert them to determine the effective subduction velocity along the central nankai trough on one side and the japan west kurile trench on the other these reference free velocities are close to those predicted by plate motion models with respect to eurasia we conclude that the eurasian reference frame gives a good approximation to the subduction motion and that to first order both subduction zones were fully locked during the period of measurements we then test whether the coupling ratio shows local variations within the seismogenic zones to do this we divide the subduction interface into 35 km 30 km elements that we model by point source groups and we invert the gps velocity field referenced to eurasia to derive the coupling ratio between 0 and 1 on each fault element the results are coherent over the 3 years and confirm that both the central nankai and the japan west kurile seismogenic zones are homogeneously fully locked most of the coupling ratios are close to 1 and a few are close to 0 intermediate values are rare the zones of decoupling correspond either to strong postseismic afterslip associated with the 1994 sanriku oki interplate earthquake japan trench or to a small overestimation of the actual lower limit of the locked zone we conclude that within the resolution of the gps data and the model 1 partial coupling did not exist during these 3 years along the nankai and japan west kurile trenches 2 the small seismic coupling ratio previously derived from earthquakes analysis for the japan and kurile trenches may indicate that a significant part of the elastic energy is dissipated silently through slow earthquakes and postseismic afterslip and 3 the heterogeneous coseismic slip pattern observed for the large and great earthquakes that rupture both subduction zones is in great contrast to the homogeneous loading finally we discuss the nonelastic residual deformation within the frame of the long term deformation of the japanese islands

new empirical relationships among magnitude rupture length rupture width rupture area and surface displacement source parameters for historical earthquakes worldwide are compiled to develop a series of empirical relationships among moment magnitude m surface rupture length subsurface rupture length downdip rupture width rupture area and maximum and average displacement per event the resulting data base is a significant update of previous compilations and includes the additional source parameters of seismic moment moment magnitude subsurface rupture length downdip rupture width and average surface displacement each source parameter is classified as reliable or unreliable based on our evaluation of the accuracy of individual values only the reliable source parameters are used in the final analyses in comparing source parameters we note the following trends 1 generally the length of rupture at the surface is equal to 75 of the subsurface rupture length however the ratio of surface rupture length to subsurface rupture length increases with magnitude 2 the average surface displacement per event is about one half the maximum surface displacement per event and 3 the average subsurface displacement on the fault plane is less than the maximum surface displacement but more than the average surface displacement thus for most earthquakes in this data base slip on the fault plane at seismogenic depths is manifested by similar displacements at the surface log linear regressions between earthquake magnitude and surface rupture length subsurface rupture length and rupture area are especially well correlated showing standard deviations of 0 25 to 0 35 magnitude units most relationships are not statistically different at a 95 significance level as a function of the style of faulting thus we consider the regressions for all slip types to be appropriate for most applications regressions between magnitude and displacement magnitude and rupture width and between displacement and rupture length are less well correlated and have larger standard deviation than regressions between magnitude and length or area the large number of data points in most of these regressions and their statistical stability suggest that they are unlikely to change significantly in response to additional data separating the data according to extensional and compressional tectonic environments neither provides statistically different results nor improves the statistical significance of the regressions regressions for cases in which earthquake magnitude is either the independent or the dependent parameter can be used to estimate maximum earthquake magnitudes both for surface faults and for subsurface seismic sources such as blind faults and to estimate the expected surface displacement along a fault for a given size earthquake

thermal effects of hydrothermal circulation and seamount subduction temperatures in the nankai trough seismogenic zone experiment transect japan 1 we examine the thermal effects of seamount subduction seamount subduction may cause transient changes in oceanic crust hydrogeology and plate boundary fault position prior to subduction seamounts provide high permeability pathways between the basaltic crustal aquifer and overlying ocean that can focus fluid flow and efficiently cool the oceanic crust as the seamount is subducted the high permeability pathway is closed shutting down the advective transfer of heat if significant fluid flow occurs it would be restricted after seamount subduction and would result in a redistribution of heat warming the trench and cooling landward parts of the system additionally subducting seamounts can influence the position of the plate boundary fault that has thermal consequences by locally controlling the proportions of incoming sediment that subduct and accrete shifting the decollement to the seafloor at the trench in the wake of seamount subduction causes limited cooling focused at the toe of the margin wedge we apply these features of seamount subduction to a thermal model for the nankai trough seismogenic zone experiment transect on the margin of japan models with hydrothermal circulation provide an explanation for anomalously high surface heat flux observations near the trench they yield temperatures of 100 c 295 c for the rupture area of the 1944 tonankai earthquake temperatures in the region of episodic tremor and slip are estimated at 290 c 325 c 70 c cooler than a model with no fluid circulation

global frequency of magnitude 9 earthquakes for decades seismologists have sought causal relationships between maximum earthquake sizes and other properties of subduction zones with the underlying notion that some subduction zones may never produce a magnitude 9 or larger event the 2004 andaman m w 9 2 earthquake called into question such ideas given multicentury return times of the greatest earthquakes ignorance of those return times and our very limited observation span i suggest that we cannot yet make such determinations present evidence cannot rule out that any subduction zone may produce a magnitude 9 or larger earthquake based on theoretical recurrence times i estimate that one to three m9 earthquakes should occur globally per century and the past half century with five m9 events reflects temporal clustering and not the long term average

global correlations between maximum magnitudes of subduction zone interface thrust earthquakes and physical parameters of subduction zones abstract the maximum earthquake magnitude recorded for subduction zone plate boundaries varies considerably on earth with some subduction zone segments producing giant subduction zone thrust earthquakes e g chile alaska sumatra andaman japan and others producing relatively small earthquakes e g mariana scotia here we show how such variability might depend on various subduction zone parameters we present 24 physical parameters that characterize these subduction zones in terms of their geometry kinematics geology and dynamics we have investigated correlations between these parameters and the maximum recorded moment magnitude m w for subduction zone segments in the period 1900 june 2012 the investigations were done for one dataset using a geological subduction zone segmentation 44 segments and for two datasets rupture zone dataset and epicenter dataset using a 200 km segmentation 241 segments all linear correlations for the rupture zone dataset and the epicenter dataset r 0 00 0 30 and for the geological dataset r 0 02 0 51 are negligible low indicating that even for the highest correlation the best fit regression line can only explain 26 of the variance a comparative investigation of the observed ranges of the physical parameters for subduction segments with m w 8 5 and the observed ranges for all subduction segments gives more useful insight into the spatial distribution of giant subduction thrust earthquakes for segments with m w 8 5 distinct narrow ranges are observed for several parameters most notably the trench normal overriding plate deformation rate v opd i e the relative velocity between forearc and stable far field backarc trench normal absolute trench rollback velocity v t subduction partitioning ratio v sp v s the fraction of the subduction velocity that is accommodated by subducting plate motion subduction thrust dip angle st subduction thrust curvature c st and trench curvature angle t the results indicate that m w 8 5 subduction earthquakes occur for rapidly shortening to slowly extending overriding plates 3 0 v opd 2 3 cm yr slow trench velocities 2 9 v t 2 8 cm yr moderate to high subduction partitioning ratios v sp v s 0 3 1 4 low subduction thrust dip angles st 30 low subduction thrust curvature c st 2 0 10 13 m 2 and low trench curvature angles 6 3 t 9 8 epicenters of giant earthquakes with m w 8 5 only occur at trench segments bordering overriding plates that experience shortening or are neutral v opd 0 suggesting that such earthquakes initiate at mechanically highly coupled segments of the subduction zone interface that have a relatively high normal stress deviatoric compression on the interface i e a normal stress asperity notably for the three largest recorded earthquakes chile 1960 alaska 1964 sumatra andaman 2004 the earthquake rupture propagated from a zone of compressive deviatoric normal stress on the subduction zone interface to a region of lower normal stress neutral or deviatoric tension stress asperities should be seen separately from frictional asperities that result from a variation in friction coefficient along the subduction zone interface we have developed a global map in which individual subduction zone segments have been ranked in terms of their predicted capability of generating a giant subduction zone earthquake m w 8 5 using the six most indicative subduction zone parameters v opd v t v sp v s st c st and t we identify a number of subduction zones and segments that rank highly which implies a capability to generate m w 8 5 earthquakes these include sunda north sulawesi hikurangi nankai northern ryukyu kamchatka kuril japan aleutians alaska cascadia mexico central america south america lesser antilles western hellenic and makran several subduction segments have a low score most notably scotia new hebrides and mariana

thermal regime of the southwest japan subduction zone effects of age history of the subducting plate abstract during a mid miocene at about 15 ma tectonic reorganization an ocean spreading ridge perpendicular to the strike of the nankai trough subduction zone stopped spreading since that time there has been subduction of the cooling fossil spreading ridge in the present study we have developed a time dependent thermal subduction model for this region using the finite element method there are good seismological and geological constraints for the plate geometry and for the subduction history of the past 15 ma boundary conditions are specified so that the oceanic plate subducting at the nankai trough becomes cooler as it gets older the model results agree with the present heat flow trend that decreases landward and explain the paleothermal regime of high mid miocene temperatures inferred from land geological studies the tectonics of the region prior to 15 ma has some uncertainties assuming subduction of an active spreading ridge or an 80 ma old lithosphere prior to 15 ma give the same results for the present thermal regime of the seaward portion of the forearc but different results for the most landward region 250 km the thermal history of the forearc since 15 ma can be summarized as a rapid warming period as a consequence of ridge subduction followed by a cooling trend to the present as a result of the aging of the subducting plate the results illustrate the thermal consequences of one type of ridge subduction they also demonstrate that the thermal regime of a subduction zone depends critically on the age history of the subducting oceanic lithosphere especially if it is young as well as such parameters as the subducting plate dip angle and thickness of insulating sediments on the incoming oceanic crust this dependence is especially important when the thermal regime is used to constrain the seismogenic behaviour of the subduction thrust fault

thermal constraints on the seismogenic portion of the southwestern japan subduction thrust for coastal cities an important factor in earthquake hazard from subduction zone earthquakes is the landward extent of the seismogenic portion of the subduction thrust fault in this study we test the hypothesis that the maximum downdip extent is defined by a critical temperature we have developed a transient thermal model for the nankai subduction zone of southwest japan to allow comparison of the thermally estimated downdip extent of the seismogenic zone with that from 1 seismicity and tsunami data for two great subduction earthquakes 2 the coseismic faulting extent of these events estimated from geodetic deformation data and 3 the interseismic locked zone determined from interseismic geodetic data the nankai margin has extensive heat flow and heat production data to control thermal models and thus crustal temperatures it has earthquake tsunami and geodetic data that constrain the coseismic rupture portion of the subduction thrust fault for past great earthquakes and the portion of the thrust fault that is locked and storing interseismic elastic strain on the nankaido margin off shikoku island the thermal model indicates that a temperature of 350 c taken to be the limit for seismic initiation from laboratory and field data is reached on the subduction thrust fault 150 km from the trench a transition zone into which rupture may extend with decreasing offset taken to be 450 c extends an additional 45 km downdip the thermal model results are in excellent agreement with the maximum downdip extent of coseismic displacement for the 1946 nankaido ms 8 2 earthquake off shikoku island and with the downdip extent of the present locked zone in the region of the 1944 tonankai ms 8 2 earthquake to the northeast the subduction angle is much steeper and the thermal models indicate a narrower downdip seismogenic extent the seismogenic locked zone from earthquake and geodetic data is also narrower thus our analysis of the southwest japan margin indicates that all three constraints on the downdip extent of the seismogenic zone thermal coseismic and interseismic geodetic data are in general agreement the study also supports the hypothesis that the seismogenic portion of subduction thrust faults is limited primarily by temperature the thermal control implies that subduction thrust faults with shallow dip have wider seismogenic zones compared to those with steep dip the subducting plate age and thus heat flow and the thickness of the insulating sediments on the incoming plate are also very important to the thermal regime and thus to the seismogenic width the relation of the maximum seismic rupture area to the interseismic locked zone is particularly important for earthquake hazard estimation on subduction margins such as cascadia where there have been no great historical events

multicentury glacier fluctuations in the swiss alps during the holocene subfossil remains of wood and peat from six swiss glaciers found in proglacial fluvial sediments indicate that glaciers were smaller than the 1985 reference level and climatic conditions allowed vegetation growth in now glaciated basins an extended data set of swiss glacier recessions consisting of 143 radiocarbon dates is presented to improve the chronology of glacier fluctuations a comparison with other archives and dated glacier advances suggests 12 major recession periods occurring at 9850 9600 93008650 85508050 77007550 74506550 61505950 57005500 52004400 43003400 28002700 21501850 14001200 cal yr bp it is proposed that major glacier fluctuations occurred on a multicentennial scale with a changing pattern during the course of the holocene after the younger dryas glaciers receded to a smaller extent and prolonged recessions occurred repeatedly culminating around 7 cal kyr bp after a transition around 6 cal kyr bp weak fluctuations around the present level dominated after 3 6 cal kyr bp less frequent recessions interrupted the trend to advanced glaciers peaking with the prominent little ice age this trend is in line with a continuous decrease of summer insolation during the holocene

melange rheology and seismic style shear displacements in crustal fault zones are accommodated by a range of seismic styles including standard earthquakes non volcanic tremor and continuous and transitory aseismic slip subduction channel shear zones containing highly sheared fluid saturated trench fill sediments intermingled with fragments of oceanic crust are commonly inferred to occur along active subduction megathrusts if this interpretation is correct these plate boundary faults are not discrete planes but may resemble the melange shear zones commonly found in exhumed subduction related rock assemblages melange deformation appears to depend critically on the ratio of competent to incompetent material with shear surfaces localized along lithological contacts or within competent domains while matrix flow accommodates shearing by distributed strain if the style of strain and or displacement accommodation in a melange reflects the partitioning between aseismic and seismic slip the proportion of competent material seems likely to be a significant factor affecting seismic style within subduction channel shear zones and along comparable mixed lithology fault zones

relation between subduction megathrust earthquakes trench sediment thickness and upper plate strain 1 giant earthquake moment magnitude mw 8 5 forecasts for subduction zones have been empirically related to both tectonic stresses and geometrical irregularities along the subduction interface both of these controls have been suggested as able to tune the ability of rupture to propagate laterally and in turn exert an important control on giant earthquake generation here we test these hypotheses and their combined influence by compiling a dataset of trench fill thickness a proxy for smoothing of subducting plate relief by sediment input into the subduction channel and upper plate strain a proxy for the tectonic stresses applied to the subduction interface for 44 segments of the global subduction network we statistically compare relationships between upper plate strain trench sediment thickness and maximal earthquake magnitude we find that the combination of both large trench fill 1 km and neutral upper plate strain explains spatial patterns of giant earthquake occurrence to a statistically significant degree in fact the concert of these two factors is more highly correlated with giant earthquake occurrence than either factor on its own less frequent giant earthquakes of lower magnitude are also possible at subduction zones with thinner trench fill and compressive upper plate strain extensional upper plate strain and trench fill 0 5 km appear to be unfavorable conditions as giant earthquakes have not been observed in these geodynamical environments during the last 111 years

strain localization driven by thermal decomposition during seismic shear field and laboratory observations show that shear deformation is often extremely localized at seismic slip rates with a typical deforming zone width on the order of a few tens of microns this extreme localization can be understood in terms of thermally driven weakening mechanisms a zone of initially high strain rate will experience more shear heating and thus weaken faster making it more likely to accommodate subsequent deformation fault zones often contain thermally unstable minerals such as clays or carbonates which devolatilize at the high temperatures attained during seismic slip in this paper we investigate how these thermal decomposition reactions drive strain localization when coupled to a model for thermal pressurization of in situ groundwater building on rice et al 2014 we use a linear stability analysis to predict a localized zone thickness that depends on a combination of hydraulic frictional and thermochemical properties of the deforming fault rock numerical simulations show that the onset of thermal decomposition drives additional strain localization when compared with thermal pressurization alone and predict localized zone thicknesses of 7 and 13 m for lizardite and calcite respectively finally we show how thermal diffusion and the endothermic reaction combine to limit the peak temperature of the fault and that the pore fluid released by the reaction provides additional weakening of 20 40 of the initial strength

confidence intervals for motion and deformation of the juan de fuca plate finite rotation parameters for 17 isochrons from anomalies 1 4a for the juan de fuca pacific plate pair are reported comparison of confidence intervals for plate rotations derived by different techniques indicates that a single plate misfit criterion significantly underestimates the confidence region defining the confidence interval by a threshold level of misfit determined by an f statistic gives similar results to the technique of bootstrap resampling for internally consistent data bootstrap resampling offers far greater robustness in the case of inconsistent data precision of about 1 km in the direction normal to isochrons is available for the younger anomalies this precision allows confident recognition of 2 5 km of eastward deformation of the pacific plate 50 100 km south of the active sovanco transform slight deformation of the northern juan de fuca plate adjacent to the nootka fault zone is also apparent east of the northern gorda ridge younger 3 ma anomalies do not show measurable deformation near the blanco fracture zone but older anomalies are up to 30 km east of their position predicted by rigid behavior of the juan de fuca plate reconstruction of the overlap geometry of past propagators shows no evidence that the extent of overlap has ever exceeded 70 km even with offset of 75 km in one case and 140 km in another new techniques for testing for intervals of constant plate motion require at least two changes in instantaneous motion at 99 confidence a clockwise change in motion direction at about 5 ma and an increase in the gradient of spreading rate since 2 ma two other changes in gradient since 5 ma are required at 95 confidence

fault stability inferred from granite sliding experiments at hydrothermal conditions seismicity on crustal faults is concentrated in the depth interval 1 3 to 12 15km tse and rice 1986 suggested that the lower bound on seismicity is due to a switch with increasing temperature from velocity weakening destabilizing to velocity strengthening stabilizing friction they inferred this transition from friction data for dry granite however pore fluids exist at elevated temperatures throughout the crust and may strongly influence strength and sliding behavior we present new data from sliding experiments on granite at elevated t 23 to 600 plus elevated ph2o 100 mpa our results show velocity strengthening at room temperature but velocity weakening from 100 to 350 c except at 250 from 350 to 600 there are systematic trends from velocity weakening to strong velocity strengthening and from high to low friction neither trend was seen in tests on dry granite the velocity dependence data imply the potential for unstable slip in the interval 100 to 350 using a geotherm to map temperature to depth this interval closely matches the observed earthquake distribution

frictional properties and sliding stability of the san andreas fault from deep drill core the strength of tectonic faults and the processes that control earthquake rupture remain central questions in fault mechanics and earthquake science we report on the frictional strength and constitutive properties of intact samples across the main creeping strand of the san andreas fault saf california united states recovered by deep drilling we find that the fault is extremely weak friction coefficient 0 10 and exhibits both velocity strengthening frictional behavior and anomalously low rates of frictional healing consistent with aseismic creep in contrast wall rock to the northeast shows velocity weakening frictional behavior and positive healing rates consistent with observed repeating earthquakes on nearby fault strands we also document a sharp increase in strength to values of 0 40 over 1 m distance at the boundary between the fault and adjacent wall rock the friction values for the saf are sufficiently low to explain its apparent weakness as inferred from heat flow and stress orientation data our results may also indicate that the shear strength of the saf should remain approximately constant at 10 mpa in the upper 5 8 km rather than increasing linearly with depth as is commonly assumed taken together our data explain why the main strand of the saf in central california is weak extremely localized and exhibits aseismic creep while nearby fault strands host repeating earthquakes

on the mechanism of seismic decoupling and back arc spreading at subduction zones to address the problem of the great variability of the mechanical state of subduction zones we investigate the mechanics of back arc spreading and seismic decoupling back arc spreading is assumed to be due to rifting of the upper plate and hence occurs when trench normal tension reaches a critical value seismic decoupling is assumed to occur when the normal stress at the frictional interface is decreased by an amount sufficient to cross the friction stability transition two forces are important in this problem the first is a small component of the slab pull force which remains unbalanced by the subduction resistance and exerts a vertical suction force at the trench the second is a sea anchor force exerted on the slab that resists its lateral motion assumed to occur at the upper plate velocity both forces contribute to the coupling problem only the sea anchor force is responsible for back arc spreading the unbalanced slab pull force is determined from a force balance for subduction the sea anchor force is computed as the hydrodynamic resistance to the facewise translation of an elliptical disc through a viscous fluid the model predicts three regimes seismically coupled compressional arcs with advancing upper plates seismically decoupled extensional arcs with retreating upper plates and strongly extensional arcs which also have back arc spreading this model is applied in detail to the izu bonin marianas system it shows that back arc spreading occurs when the integrated tension in the upper plate exceeds a value of about 1 1013 n m 1 and requires a residual tension of about a third that to drive the back arc spreading once rifting is completed it shows why the plate interface near guam is seismically coupled while the plate boundary everywhere farther north is decoupled when applied globally it successfully predicts the state of seismic coupling and back arc spreading in more than 80 of the world s subduction zones of the remaining half can be seen to contain additional complications not included in the model about 10 of cases remain unexplained but some of these may have incorrectly determined seismic coupling coefficients

do subducting seamounts generate or stop large earthquakes seamount subduction is a common process in subduction zone tectonics contradicting a widely held expectation that subducting seamounts generate large earthquakes seamounts subduct largely aseismically producing numerous small earthquakes on rare occasions when they do produce relatively large events the ruptures tend to be complex suggesting multiple rupture patches or faults we explain that the seismogenic behavior of these seamounts is controlled by the development and evolution of an adjacent fracture network during subduction and cannot be described using the frictional behavior of a single fault the complex structure and heterogeneous stresses of this network provide a favorable condition for aseismic creep and small earthquakes but an unfavorable condition for the generation and propagation of large ruptures

temperatures heat flux and frictional stress near major thrust faults we examine the two dimensional advective and conductive transport of heat in a region of thrust faulting both simple theoretical considerations and numerical experiments show that the steady state temperatures near the fault are reduced by a divisor s 1 b z vsin below what they would be with the same heat sources but in the absence of advection in this expression z is the depth to the fault v is the slip rate is the component of the dip of the fault in the direction of underthrusting is thermal diffusivity and b is a dimensionless factor that is essentially equal to one for most forms of heating initial changes in temperatures near the fault are given by t z t t z 0 12vsin t z 0 z these simple formulae are successful because of the neglible influence of lateral conduction of heat at least for slip rates of a few mm yr or more two time constants govern the transition from the initial change in temperature to steady state t1 u v where u is the distance along the fault in the direction of underthrusting from the surface to the depth in question and t2 z 2 2 where z is the depth to the fault when elapsed times exceed the sum of these two time constants temperatures differ from their steady state values by only about 10 percent the numerical experiments indicate that the simple formulae are sufficiently accurate that sophisticiated numerical modeling of temperatures in specific regions is unwarranted putain an application of these simple formulae to measurements of conductive heat flow at island arcs implies that shear stresses at island arcs approach 100 mpa and are greater than 30 mpa calculations of temperatures appropriate for the himalaya suggest that shear stresses of 100 mpa on the main central thrust probably are required to account for the tertiary granites of the region if melting took place after slip began on the thrust similarly the cut off in seismicity at a depth of about 15 km in the himalaya if due to temperatures exceeding 350 to 450 c implies a deviatoric stress close to 100 mpa

methane hydrate and free gas on the blake ridge from vertical seismic profiling seismic velocities measured in three drill holes through a gas hydrate deposit on the blake ridge offshore south carolina indicate that substantial free gas exists to at least 250 meters beneath the bottom simulating reflection bsr both methane hydrate and free gas exist even where a clear bsr is absent the low reflectance or blanking above the bsr is caused by lithologic homogeneity of the sediments rather than by hydrate cementation the average methane hydrate saturation above the bsr is relatively low 5 to 7 percent of porosity which suggests that earlier global estimates of methane in hydrates may be too high by as much as a factor of 3

the updip and downdip limits to great subduction earthquakes thermal and structural models of cascadia south alaska sw japan and chile this study examines thermal and structural controls of the updip and downdip rupture limits of great subduction thrust earthquakes data on past great earthquake seismic limits have been compiled for four continental subduction zones cascadia sw japan south alaska and chile these limits have then been compared to the predictions of several models for what constrains great earthquake rupture temperatures on the subduction thrusts have been estimated by finite element numerical models the landward limits of the observed updip aseismic zones correspond to the position where the thrust temperature reaches about 100 c that is depths of about 2 to 10 km for the subduction zones studied this temperature agrees with the dehydration of stable sliding smectite clays to illite chlorite the temperatures in this region are controlled mainly by the thickness of sediment on the incoming crust and by the crustal age and thus heat flow the downdip limits correspond to the depth on the thrust where either 1 the temperature reaches about 350 c which corresponds to thermally activated stable sliding behavior for crustal rocks with a transition to 450 c or 2 about 40 km depth if 350 c is reached at greater depth depths of about 40 km approximately correspond to the intersection of the thrust with the continental forearc moho and this downdip limit may be a consequence of stable sliding serpentinite or talc and other hydrated forearc mantle rocks the primary temperature controls on the downdip region are the age of the subducting oceanic plate and the thrust dip profile secondary control comes from the thickness of incoming sediment the convergence rate and the radioactive heat generation in the overlying forearc the 100 c updip limit occurs near the trench for young subducting plates with a thick sediment section such as cascadia 6 8 ma and up to 80 km landward for older oceanic crust such as south alaska 50 ma the 350 c downdip thermal limit is applicable for young oceanic plates e g cascadia and nankai whereas the forearc mantle limit applies for older plates e g south alaska and chile except near the chile rise for the margins studied that have experienced great earthquakes there is generally good agreement between the postulated thermal and moho limits and the rupture or seismogenic zone as defined by the distribution of aftershocks and by waveform tsunami and dislocation modeling the downdip limit of the interseismic locked zone from dislocation modeling is also in agreement with these limits

slow slip and frictional transition at low temperature at the hikurangi subduction zone temperature changes with depth do not appear to be a primary control for either slow slip or fault locking processes at the hikurangi margin north island new zealand both slow slip events and the geodetically observed transition from fault locking to free slip at depth occur at temperatures as low as 100 c shallow portions of faults exhibit brittle stick slip behaviour that gives way to more stable sliding with increasing depth limiting the depths to which earthquake inducing slip can occur the increase of temperature with depth is often assumed to transform friction in the fault from velocity weakening unstable to velocity strengthening stable and to change conditions from brittle to ductile1 2 3 4 5 a temperature of 350 c has been suggested to mark the base of the frictionally unstable portion of the fault which becomes free slipping at depth where temperatures rise above 450 c refs 2 4 6 here we show that both slow slip events and the geodetically observed transition from fault locking to free slip at the hikurangi subduction zone east of the north island new zealand occur at temperatures as low as 100 c suggesting that temperature is not a primary control on either slow slip or fault locking processes at the hikurangi margin although globally shallow slow slip events are rare five out of seven events observed so far at the hikurangi margin are less than 15 km deep

crustal heterogeneities and the thermal structure of the continental crust the observed linear relationship between surface heat flow q0 and the radiogenic heat production of near surface rocks a0 discovered almost two decades ago has been a primary tool used to infer the distribution of heat production in the continental crust recent evidence on the nature of compositional heterogeneities in the continental crust has led us to reexamine the q0 a0 relationship and the likely implications for the thermal structure of the lower continental crust numerical simulations of crustal thermal models indicate that some interpretations derived from this relation may be flawed in particular the length scale determined from the q0 a0 function normally thought to describe the depth distribution of crustal heat sources is significantly affected by the horizontal scale of crustal heterogeneity as a consequence most estimates of lower crustal heat flow and lower crustal temperatures obtained using heat flow data with the q0 a0 relationship are overestimates this overestimation is proportionally largest in areas of low mantle heat flux such as cratons where basal heat flux may be overestimated by more than a factor of two

do trench sediments affect great earthquake occurrence in subduction zones seismic energy release is dominated by the underthrusting earthquakes in subduction zones and this energy release is further concentrated in a few subduction zones while some subduction zones are characterized by the occurrence of great earthquakes others are relatively aseismic this variation in maximum earthquake size between subduction zones is one of the most important features of global seismicity previous work has shown that the variation in maximum earthquake size is correlated with the variation in two other subduction zone properties age of the subducting lithosphere and convergence rate these two properties do not explain all the variance in maximum earthquake size i propose that a third subduction zone property trench sediments explains part of the remaining variance in maximum earthquake size subduction zones are divided into two groups 1 those with excess trench sediments and 2 those with horst and graben structure at the trench thirteen of the 19 largest subduction zone events including the three largest occur in zones with excess trench sediments about half the zones with excess trench sediments are characterized by great earthquake occurrence most of the other zones with excess trench sediments but without great earthquakes are predicted to have small earthquakes by the age rate correlation two notable exceptions are the oregon washington and middle america zones overall the presence of excess trench sediments appears to enhance great earthquake occurrence one speculative physical mechanism that connects trench sediments and earthquake size is that excess trench sediments are associated with the subduction of a coherent sedimentary layer which at elevated temperature and pressure forms a homogeneous and strong contact zone between the plates

on the relationships between slab dip back arc stress upper plate absolute motion and crustal nature in subduction zones 1 statistical analysis of modern oceanic subduction zone parameters such as the age of a downgoing plate or the absolute plate motions is performed in order to investigate which parameter controls the dip of a slab and conversely what the influence of slab geometry is on upper plate behavior for that purpose parameters have been determined from global databases along 159 transects from all subduction zones that are not perturbed by nearby collision or ridge plateau seamount subduction on the basis of tomographic images slabs that penetrate through or lie on the 670 km discontinuity are also identified the results of the statistical analysis are as follows 1 back arc stress correlates with slab dip i e back arc spreading is observed for deep dips deeper than 125 km larger than 50 whereas back arc shortening occurs only for deep dips less than 30 2 slab dip correlates with absolute motion of the overriding plate the correlation is even better when the slab lies on or even more penetrates through the 670 km discontinuity 3 slabs dip more steeply by about 20 on average beneath oceanic overriding plates than beneath continental ones 4 slabs dip more steeply on average by about 10 near edges 5 slab dip does not correlate with the magnitude of slab pull the age of subducting lithosphere at the trench the thermal regime of the subducting lithosphere the convergence rate or the subduction polarity east versus west the present study provides evidence that the upper plate absolute motion plays an important role on slab dip as well as on upper plate strain retreating overriding plates are often oceanic ones and thus may partially explain the steeper slab dips beneath oceanic upper plates one can infer that low slab dips correlate well with compression in continental advancing upper plates whereas steep dips are often associated with extension in oceanic retreating upper plates excess weight of old slabs is often counterbalanced by other forces probably asthenospheric in origin such as lateral mantle flow near slab edges or anchor forces to determine slab dip

magnitude limits of subduction zone earthquakes maximum earthquake magnitude m x is a critical parameter in seismic hazard and risk analysis however some recent large earthquakes have shown that most of the existing methods for estimating m x are inadequate moreover m x itself is ill defined because its meaning largely depends on the context and it usually cannot be inferred using existing data without associating it with a time interval in this study we use probable maximum earthquake magnitude within a time period of interest m p t to replace m x the term m p t contains not only the information of magnitude limit but also the occurrence rate of the extreme events we estimate m p t for circum pacific subduction zones using tapered gutenberg richter tgr distributions the estimation of the two tgr parameters value and corner magnitude m c is performed using the maximum likelihood method with the constraint from tectonic moment rate to populate the tgr the rates of smaller earthquakes are needed we apply the whole earth model a high resolution global estimate of the rate of m 5 earthquakes to estimate these rates the uncertainties of m p t are calculated using monte carlo simulation our results show that most of the circum pacific subduction zones can generate m 8 5 earthquakes over a 250 year interval m 8 8 earthquakes over a 500 year interval and m 9 0 earthquakes over a 10 000 year interval for the cascadia subduction zone we include the 10 000 year paleoseismic record based on turbidite studies to supplement the limited instrumental earthquake data our results show that over a 500 year period m 8 8 earthquakes are expected in this zone over a 1000 year period m 9 0 earthquakes are expected and over a 10 000 year period m 9 3 earthquakes are expected

two dimensional thermal modeling of subduction of the philippine sea plate beneath southwest japan abstract in this study we constructed a two dimensional thermal convection model associated with subduction of the philippine sea phs plate beneath southwest japan to estimate the thermal state to evaluate the validity of the calculated temperature distribution we compared the calculated heat flows with observed heat flow data such as the high sensitivity seismograph network japan hi net borehole land borehole marine probe and bottom simulating reflectors hi net heat flow data which have never been used for thermal modeling have spatially high resolutions on land and enable detailed estimation of the thermal state beneath the japanese islands we considered the spatio temporal change in the age of the phs plate change in its plate motion direction at 3 ma and the geometry of its upper surface calculated heat flows associated solely with subduction of the phs plate passing through central and eastern shikoku and the kii peninsula were not consistent with observations they tended to be lower on the seaward side of the corner of the mantle wedge and to have much longer spatial wavelengths on the continental side to explain heat flow data in southwest japan frictional heating at the plate interface on the seaward side of the corner of the mantle wedge and temperature changes due to surface erosion and sedimentation on land associated with crustal deformation during the quaternary must be incorporated into the model the most suitable pore pressure ratio to explain the heat flow data is estimated to be 0 95 temperatures on the upper surface of the phs plate obtained in this study are lower at shallow depths and higher at greater depths than those obtained by hyndman et al 1995 indicating that the seismogenic zone inferred from this study is narrower than that of their model microearthquakes within the subducting phs plate occur at temperatures below 700 800 c

physical characteristics of subduction interface type seismogenic zones revisited 1 based on global earthquake catalogs the hypocenters nodal planes and seismic moments of worldwide subduction plate interface earthquakes were extracted for the period between 1900 and 2007 assuming that the seismogenic zone coincides with the distribution of 5 5 m 7 earthquakes the subduction interface seismogenic zones were mapped for 80 of the trench systems and characterized with geometrical and mechanical parameters using this database correlations were isolated between significant parameters to identify cause effect relationships empirical laws obtained in previous studies were revisited in light of this more complete accurate and uniform description of the subduction interface seismogenic zone the seismogenic zone was usually found to end in a fore arc mantle rather than at a moho depth the subduction velocity was the first order controlling parameter for variations in the physical characteristics of plate interfaces determining both the geometry and mechanical behavior as such the fast subduction zones and cold slabs were associated with large and steep plate interfaces which in turn had large seismic rates the subduction velocity could not account for the potential earthquake magnitude diversity that was observed along the trenches events with mw 8 5 preferentially occurred in the vicinity of slab edges where the upper plate was continental and the back arc strain was neutral this observation was interpreted in terms of compressive normal stresses along the plate interface large lateral ruptures should be promoted in neutral subduction zones due to moderate compressive stresses along the plate interface that allow the rupture to propagate laterally

seismic consequences of warm versus cool subduction metamorphism examples from southwest and northeast japan warm and cool subduction zones exhibit differences in seismicity seismic structure and arc magmatism which reflect differences in metamorphic reactions occurring in subducting oceanic crust in southwest japan arc volcanism is sparse and intraslab earthquakes extend to 65 kilometers depth in northeast japan arc volcanism is more common and intraslab earthquakes reach 200 kilometers depth thermal petrologic models predict that oceanic crust subducting beneath southwest japan is 300 to 500 c warmer than beneath northeast japan resulting in shallower eclogite transformation and slab dehydration reactions and possible slab melting

a constraint on the shear stress at the pacific australian plate boundary from heat flow and seismicity at the kermadec forearc new heat flow measurements and relocated hypocenters that constrain the subduction geometry of the pacific plate at the kermadec trench yield an estimate of shear stress on the thrust fault with the exception of a few relatively high values 60 mw m 2 on the upper forearc region near the active volcanic ridge most of the 64 heat flow values along two profiles across the forearc range from 20 to 40 mw m 2 corrections for bottom water temperature variations that caused nonuniform temperature gradients were required for most measurements the means of the most reliable values for the northern and southern profiles are 28 9 5 8 mw m 2 n 33 and 28 9 7 2 mw m 2 n 19 respectively and the measurements show no apparent systematic variation along the profiles over the range 50 to 150 km distance from the trench the means of the 10 values at each of two sites on the pacific plate seaward of the profiles are 57 2 6 3 and 60 2 6 6 mw m 2 redeterminations of focal depths and fault plane solutions of earthquakes in the vicinity of the heat flow profiles indicate thrust faulting on a plane dipping 17 2 calculated values of heat flow for a two dimensional analytical approximation to conduction through the upper plate diffusion into the downgoing slab and advection by that slab are consistent with either a uniform stress of 40 17 mpa along the thrust fault or stress increasing linearly at 0 5 0 2 mpa km 1 with distance from the trench axis the comparable scatter in the heat flow measurements about those calculated from these simple stress distributions does not show one to be a better approximation than the other