three dimensional splay fault geometry and implications for tsunami generation megasplay faults very long thrust faults that rise from the subduction plate boundary megathrust and intersect the sea floor at the landward edge of the accretionary prism are thought to play a role in tsunami genesis we imaged a megasplay thrust system along the nankai trough in three dimensions which allowed us to map the splay fault geometry and its lateral continuity the megasplay is continuous from the main plate interface fault upwards to the sea floor where it cuts older thrust slices of the frontal accretionary prism the thrust geometry and evidence of large scale slumping of surficial sediments show that the fault is active and that the activity has evolved toward the landward direction with time contrary to the usual seaward progression of accretionary thrusts the megasplay fault has progressively steepened substantially increasing the potential for vertical uplift of the sea floor with slip we conclude that slip on the megasplay fault most likely contributed to generating devastating historic tsunamis such as the 1944 moment magnitude 8 1 tonankai event and it is this geometry that makes this margin and others like it particularly prone to tsunami genesis

a revised tsunami source model for the 1707 hoei earthquake and simulation of tsunami inundation of ryujin lake kyushu japan 1 based on many recent findings such as those for geodetic data from japan s geonet nationwide gps network and geological investigations of a tsunami inundated ryujin lake in kyushu we present a revised source rupture model for the great 1707 hoei earthquake that occurred in the nankai trough off southwestern japan the source rupture area of the new hoei earthquake source model extends further to the hyuga nada more than 70 km beyond the currently accepted location at the westernmost end of shikoku numerical simulation of the tsunami using a new source rupture model for the hoei earthquake explains the distribution of the very high tsunami observed along the pacific coast from western shikoku to kyushu more consistently a simulation of the tsunami runup into ryujin lake using the onshore tsunami estimated by the new model demonstrates a tsunami inundation process inflow and outflow speeds affect transport and deposition of sand in the lake and around the channel connecting it to the sea tsunamis from the 684 tenmu 1361 shokei and 1707 hoei earthquakes deposited sand in ryujin lake and around the channel connecting it to the sea but lesser tsunamis from other earthquakes were unable to reach ryujin lake this irregular behavior suggests that in addition to the regular nankai trough earthquake cycle of 100 150 years there is a hyperearthquake cycle of 300 500 years these greater earthquakes produce the largest tsunamis from western shikoku to kyushu

possible splay fault slip during the 1946 nankai earthquake this paper considers seafloor deformation associated with the 1946 nankai earthquake which occurred in the nankai trough subduction zone off the coast of southwest japan we note that recent high resolution determinations of the slip distribution assumed to be confined to the plate boundary result in a pronounced maximum in seafloor displacement midway between the coast of shikoku and the trough axis we show that this feature could be due to slip on a splay fault rather than the plate boundary such a model for the western part of the slip distribution is able to account for the main features of the tsunamigenic seafloor deformation obtained in previous studies with a maximum slip consistent with the plate convergent rate and history of earthquake recurrence at the nankai trough

sources of tsunami and tsunamigenic earthquakes in subduction zones we classified tsunamigenic earthquakes in subduction zones into three types earth quakes at the plate interface typical interplate events earthquakes at the outer rise within the subducting slab or overlying crust intraplate events and tsunami earthquakes that generate considerably larger tsunamis than expected from seismic waves the depth range of a typical interplate earthquake source is 10 40km controlled by temperature and other geological parameters the slip distribution varies both with depth and along strike recent examples show very different temporal change of slip distribution in the aleutians and the japan trench the tsunamigenic coseismic slip of the 1957 aleutian earthquake was concentrated on an asperity located in the western half of an aftershock zone 1200km long this asperity ruptured again in the 1986 andreanof islands and 1996 delarof islands earthquakes by contrast the source of the 1994 sanriku oki earthquake corresponds to the low slip region of the previous interplate event the 1968 tokachi oki earthquake tsunamis from intraplate earthquakes within the subducting slab can be at least as large as those from interplate earthquakes tsunami hazard assessments must include such events similarity in macroseismic data from two southern kuril earthquakes illustrates difficulty in distinguishing interplate and slab events on the basis of historical data such as felt reports and tsunami heights most moment release of tsunami earthquakes occurs in a narrow region near the trench and the concentrated slip is responsible for the large tsunami numerical modeling of the 1996 peru earthquake confirms this model which has been proposed for other tsunami earthquakes including 1896 sanriku 1946 aleutian and 1992 nicaragua

hydraulic conductivity of geosynthetic clay liners exhumed from landfill final covers samples of geosynthetic clay liners gcls from four landfill covers were tested for water content swell index hydraulic conductivity and exchangeable cations exchange of ca and mg for na occurred in all of the exhumed gcls and the bentonite had a swell index similar to that for ca or mg bentonite hydraulic conductivities of the gcls varied over 5 orders of magnitude regardless of cover soil thickness or presence of a geomembrane hydraulic conductivity was strongly related to the water content at the time of sampling controlled desiccation and rehydration of exhumed gcls that had low hydraulic conductivity 10 9 to 10 7 cm s resulted in increases in hydraulic conductivity of 1 5 4 orders of magnitude even with overburden pressure simulating a 1 m thick cover comparison of these data with other data from the united states and europe indicates that exchange of ca and or mg for na is likely to occur in the field unless the overlying cover soil is sodic sodium rich the comparison also shows th

partitioning between seismogenic and aseismic slip as highlighted from slow slip events in hyuga nada japan 1 we present a numerical method to analyze the gps data and examine slow fault slips in hyuga nada a region in western japan where the philippine sea plate subducts under the eurasian plate and earthquakes of magnitude 7 class are frequent we found that after two large earthquakes in 1996 a slow fault slip expanded from the source area to the north and then triggered another slow event with a characteristic source duration of about one year the aseismic slip has increasingly highlighted a particular site where little slow fault slip takes place but where the subducting plate drags the overriding plate it is noteworthy that the highlighted area is just the site of a past large earthquake we propose that this area is a possible site for a future large earthquake

depth distribution of coseismic slip along the nankai trough japan from joint inversion of geodetic and tsunami data coseismic slip distribution on the fault plane particularly in the downdip direction associated with large subduction earthquakes can be estimated by joint inversion of geodetic and tsunami data two large earthquakes the 1944 tonankai earthquake mw 8 1 and the 1946 nankaido earthquake mw 8 3 occurred on the nankai trough southwestern japan where the philippine sea plate is subducting beneath the eurasian plate the source areas of these events extended over both land and ocean coseismic crustal movements on land were measured by leveling while those in ocean were recorded as tsunami waveforms on tide gauges the coseismic slip distribution inverted from these data shows that the slip on the shallower part of the fault plane is comparable to that on the deeper parts this indicates that large coseismic slip can occur beneath an accretionary wedge where current seismicity is low the result has implications for other subduction zones having a similar tectonic environment such as for the pacific northwest region of the united states although the possibility of a large earthquake there is still debated should a large subduction earthquake occur in this region coseismic slip on the shallow part could be large and the potential for large tsunamis is high

geological and historical evidence of irregular recurrent earthquakes in japan great m 8 earthquakes repeatedly occur along the subduction zones around japan and cause fault slip of a few to several metres releasing strains accumulated from decades to centuries of plate motions assuming a simple characteristic earthquake model that similar earthquakes repeat at regular intervals probabilities of future earthquake occurrence have been calculated by a government committee however recent studies on past earthquakes including geological traces from giant m 9 earthquakes indicate a variety of size and recurrence interval of interplate earthquakes along the kuril trench off hokkaido limited historical records indicate that average recurrence interval of great earthquakes is approximately 100 years but the tsunami deposits show that giant earthquakes occurred at a much longer interval of approximately 400 years along the japan trench off northern honshu recurrence of giant earthquakes similar to the 2011 tohoku earthquake with an interval of approximately 600 years is inferred from historical records and tsunami deposits along the sagami trough near tokyo two types of kanto earthquakes with recurrence interval of a few hundred years and a few thousand years had been recognized but studies show that the recent three kanto earthquakes had different source extents along the nankai trough off western japan recurrence of great earthquakes with an interval of approximately 100 years has been identified from historical literature but tsunami deposits indicate that the sizes of the recurrent earthquakes are variable such variability makes it difficult to apply a simple characteristic earthquake model for the long term forecast and several attempts such as use of geological data for the evaluation of future earthquake probabilities or the estimation of maximum earthquake size in each subduction zone are being conducted by government committees

dynamic rupture scenarios of anticipated nankai tonankai earthquakes southwest japan 1 we investigated dynamic rupture scenarios of anticipated megathrust earthquakes on the nankai tonankai subduction zone southwest japan to improve the scenario reliability the model parameters should be constrained by available data or derived from their analysis we employed the three dimensional plate interface geometry and the slip deficit rate on the interface accumulated slip deficit was used to obtain the stress drop distribution of anticipated earthquakes the estimated stress drop distribution is consistent with the seismogenic asperity locations known from the analysis of past earthquakes fault friction constitutive parameters however had to be assumed from indirect observations because they cannot be constrained directly by the data based on various geophysical observations we defined three regions where larger fracture energy is required these are the eastern edge of the tonankai area the western edge of the nankai area and the region between the tonankai and nankai areas beneath the kii peninsula such lateral heterogeneity promoted the segmented rupture along the nankai trough with predefined stress drop and constitutive parameters various rupture scenarios for tonankai and nankai asperities were obtained for different initiation locations in some cases a single segment is ruptured while in other cases all the segments are broken due to dynamic linkage at the segment boundary causing a giant earthquake the initiation location is a critical parameter that controls the rupture propagation across the segment boundary these scenarios will be extremely useful to evaluate deterministically the strong ground motions and tsunami hazards caused by the next major earthquakes in southwest japan

origin and evolution of a splay fault in the nankai accretionary wedge subduction zones are often characterized by wedge shaped sedimentary complexes called accretionary prisms that form when sediments are scraped off the subducting plate and added to the overriding plate large landward dipping thrust faults can cut through such a prism these faults known as megasplay faults 1 2 originate near the top of the subducting plate and terminate at the shallow landward edge of the prism1 3 4 5 6 megasplay faults have been the subject of numerous geological and geophysical studies4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 but their initiation and evolution through time remains poorly constrained here we combine seismic reflection data from the nankai accretionary wedge with geological data collected by the integrated ocean drilling program iodp and find that the splay fault cutting this wedge initiated approx1 95 million years myr ago in the lower part of the prism as an out of sequence thrust oost after an initial phase of high activity the movement along the fault slowed down but uplift and reactivation of the fault resumed about 1 55 myr ago the alternating periods of high and low activity along the splay fault that we document hint at episodic changes in the mechanical stability of accretionary prisms

modeling of long period ground motions in the nankai subduction zone model simulation using the accretionary prism derived from oceanfloor local s wave velocity structures the accretionary prism in the subduction zone which consists of thick low velocity oceanic sediments significantly affects the propagation of seismic waves for shallow offshore earthquakes including large interplate earthquakes in order to simulate long period 5 s ground motions in the nankai subduction zone we constructed a three dimensional 3d seismic velocity structure model of the accretionary prism by interpolation extrapolation of local s wave velocity structures beneath 46 oceanfloor seismic stations donet which are deployed just above the accretionary prism off the southern kii and eastern shikoku regions we modeled local s wave velocity structures using a simple two parameter depth varying velocity function to investigate the effects of the accretionary prism on ground and seafloor motions we conducted numerical simulations of seismic wave propagation for three local earthquakes that occurred in southwestern japan the simulations reasonably reproduced the observed seismograms not only for the period ranges of the moment tensor inversion 50 s but also for the strong long period ground motions in the sedimentary basins 5 s especially in the region where donet stations are densely deployed since depth varying local s wave structures significantly improve the reproducibility of long period ground motions our modeling procedure is useful for modeling long period ground motions of local and regional offshore subduction zone earthquakes

overview of holocene tsunami deposits along the nankai suruga and sagami troughs southwest japan tsunami deposits provide a basis for reconstructing holocene histories of great earthquakes and tsunamis on the pacific coast of southwest japan the deposits have been found in the past 15 years at lakes lagoons outcrops and archaeological excavations the inferred tsunami histories span 3000 years for the nankai and suruga troughs and nearly 10 000 years for the sagami trough the inferred histories contain recurrence intervals of variable length the shortest of these 100 200 years for the nankai trough 150 300 years for the sagami trough resemble those known from written history of the past 1000 1500 years longer intervals inferred from the tsunami deposits probably reflect variability in rupture mode incompleteness of geologic records and insufficient research the region s tsunami history could be clarified by improving the geologic distinction between tsunami and storm dating the inferred tsunamis more accurately and precisely and using the deposits to help quantify the source areas and sizes of the parent earthquakes

coseismic slip resolution along a plate boundary megathrust the nankai trough southwest japan geodetic survey measurements are used to estimate the coseismic slip distribution in the 1944 tonankai mw 8 1 and 1946 nankaido mw 8 3 earthquakes and to assess quantitatively the degree to which this slip is resolved on the plate boundary megathrust data used include 798 angle changes from triangulation surveys 328 leveling section differences and 5 coseismic tidal gage offsets many of the nominally coseismic triangulation data span 50 years nearly half the earthquake cycle and correction for interseismic deformation using post 1950 observations is applied microseismicity is used to define the configuration of the plate boundary interface and approximate it with a continuous multisegment fault model because the onshore geodetic data have very limited resolving power for offshore fault segments offshore coseismic slip was constrained by satake s 1993 estimation based on tsunami data the majority of the coseismic slip occurs between 15 and 25 km depth although resolution declines toward the trench axis it is sufficiently good to define two distinct high slip regions one off southeastern shikoku island 11 m maximum and the other offshore of kii peninsula 3 m maximum the slip magnitude off southeastern shikoku coupled with the plate convergence rate would imply an recurrence interval of about 270 years much longer than the average repeat time of 120 years for historical great earthquakes on the nankai trough however the maximum coseismic slip is sensitive to the assumed fault geometry and slippage on trough parallel splay faults could significantly decrease the maximum slip to about 6 m

difference in the maximum magnitude of interplate earthquakes off shikoku and in the hyuganada region southwest japan inferred from the temperature distribution obtained from numerical modeling the proposed hyuganada triangle abstract to clarify differences in the maximum magnitude of interplate earthquakes offshore of shikoku m 8 and in the western adjacent hyuganada region m 7 5 southwest japan where the oceanic philippine sea phs plate subducts beneath the continental amuria plate along the nankai trough we calculated the temperature distribution for the plate interface using a three dimensional thermal convection model we attribute the observed very low heat flow values less than approximately 45 mw m 2 in the southern part of the hyuganada region to the subduction of the kyushu palau ridge which is presumably older than the adjacent shikoku basin to the east trial and error methods suggest an age difference of about 20 myr between these two areas the heat flow calculated from the temperature distribution fits the observed heat flow in the hyuganada region well the results show that hyuganada earthquakes may take place in the newly proposed hyuganada triangle bounded by a southeastern isotherm of about 200 c on the plate interface a northwestern boundary between the upper surface of the subducting phs plate and the continental moho discontinuity a northern isotherm of about 350 c and a northeastern margin normal zone with a possible barrier or large friction parameter l interplate earthquakes in such a limited seismogenic zone may reach a maximum magnitude of m 7 5 our results also suggest that a seismic gap seaward of the hyuganada region may be caused by stable sliding arising from low temperature resulting in a deeper updip limit than that offshore of shikoku the seismic gap offshore southwest of southern kyushu along the ryukyu trench may result from the overlapping of two stable sliding regimes on the plate interface one with low temperature at shallower depths caused by the subduction of the old phs plate and the other a serpentinized mantle wedge at deeper depths

rupture process of the 1944 tonankai earthquake ms 8 1 from the inversion of teleseismic and regional seismograms 1 we digitized teleseismic and regional records of the 1944 tonankai earthquake we used the multiple time window method to invert these records for the spatial and temporal distribution of slip and rake we assume a 220 140 km fault with a spacing of 20 20 km and a maximum rupture velocity of 2 5 km s the inversion resolved an asperity along the accretionary wedge and under the shima and atsumi peninsulas the rupture propagated from southwest to northeast and there was little slip near the hypocenter consistent with the absence of uplift in the overlying submarine forearc basin the peak slip is 2 3 m and the total seismic moment is 2 4 1028 dyn cm mw 8 2 we compared the predicted and observed vertical geodetic displacements and inferred that the limit of rupture is consistent with the change from subsidence to uplift west of the atsumi peninsula this suggested that the earthquake did not rupture the plate interface in the tokai gap we modeled the tsunami using sea bottom displacements generated from this slip model the tide gauge amplitudes and frequency content are consistent with those predicted resolution tests from inverting synthetic seismograms computed using a simplified slip model indicated that the combination of teleseismic and regional data sets best recovers the asperity locations and peak slips given similar station geometry and degrees of freedom an inversion of the synthetic regional data set indicates that slip artifacts can occur early in the rupture process due to many clipped records while the inversion of synthetic teleseismic data set had less resolution and recovered only 50 of the peak slip

high precision slip distribution of the 1944 tonankai earthquake inferred from tsunami waveforms possible slip on a splay fault abstract inversion of tsunami waveforms is a well established technique for estimating the slip distributions of subduction zone earthquakes with some of the most detailed results having been obtained for earthquakes in the nankai trough sw japan the present study although it uses a method and tsunami waveform data set almost identical to previous study aims to improve on previous work by using a more precise specification of initial conditions for the calculation of tsunami green s functions specifically we incorporated four improvements in the present study 1 we used a realistic plate model based only on seismic survey results and assumed it to be the fault plane of the 1944 tonankai earthquake 2 the smallest subfaults consistent with the long wavelength approximation were used in the tsunami inversion analysis 3 we included the effect of horizontal displacement of the ocean bottom on tsunami generation and 4 we performed a checkerboard resolution test as obtained in previous studies a zone of high slip 2 0 m was resolved off the shima peninsula however the more precise calculation of tsunami green s functions has revealed additional detail that was not evident in previous studies which we demonstrate is resolvable and correlates with the position of known faults in the accretionary prism while there was little or no slip near the trench axis in the eastern part of the rupture zone there was up to 1 5 m of slip resolved within 30 km of the trough axis in the western part along the coast of the kii peninsula this troughward slip zone coincides with the position of a large splay fault mapped in multichannel reflection surveys furthermore it is also clear that the upper edge of the enshu fault off shima and atsumi peninsulas is consistent with the up dip limit of slip in the eastern part of our model we tested the possibility that slip occurred on the former splay fault instead of on the plate interface during the 1944 tonankai earthquake and find that slip on this splay fault is also consistent with the data although we cannot distinguish whether slip was dominant on the splay fault or on the plate interface we further suggest that the position of the enshu fault may be determined by the subduction of topographic highs and that such faults may have an important influence on the up dip rupture limit of the 1944 tonankai and potentially other subduction zone earthquakes

possible slip history scenarios for the hyuga nada region and bungo channel and their relationship with nankai earthquakes in southwest japan based on numerical simulations the nankai earthquakes are great interplate earthquakes with recurrence intervals of 100 200 years occurring along the nankai trough southwestern japan new geological evidences suggest that the rupture area of the 1707 earthquake one of the largest extended farther westward than previously thought and similar magnitude events may have recurrence intervals of several hundred years west of the nankai earthquake segments in the bungo channel region slow slip events sses have occurred with recurrence intervals of several years since 1980 farther westward no m 7 5 interplate earthquakes have occurred except for one in 1968 in the northern hyuga nada region near the bungo channel we numerically simulated the generation cycles of nankai earthquakes hyuga nada earthquakes and bungo channel sses to obtain possible slip histories in these regions particularly during 1707 1980 we showed that the nankai and hyuga nada earthquakes occur mostly independently with average recurrence intervals of 151 and 117 years respectively an sse patch slipped coseismically during both the nankai and hyuga nada earthquakes the rupture of the nankai earthquakes extended to the hyuga nada region every 500 600 years and was followed by quiescence of sses for more than 200 years subsequently sses occurred repeatedly every 8 years current observational findings are generally consistent with the characteristics obtained from our scenarios except regarding the recurrence intervals of hyuga nada earthquakes for which few observations are available further evidence of the slip history in these regions will be required to use information from such simulations to forecast future earthquakes

impacts of tides on tsunami propagation due to potential nankai trough earthquakes in the seto inland sea japan the impacts of tides on extreme tsunami propagation due to potential nankai trough earthquakes in the seto inland sea sis japan are investigated through numerical experiments tsunami experiments are conducted based on five scenarios that consider tides at four different phases such as flood high ebb and low tides the probes that were selected arbitrarily in the bungo and kii channels show less significant effects of tides on tsunami heights and the arrival times of the first waves than those that experience large tidal ranges in inner basins and bays of the sis for instance the maximum tsunami height and the arrival time at toyomaesi differ by more than 0 5 m and nearly 1 h respectively depending on the tidal phase the uncertainties defined in terms of calculated maximum tsunami heights due to tides illustrate that the calculated maximum tsunami heights in the inner sis with standing tides have much larger uncertainties than those of two channels with propagating tides particularly in harima nada the uncertainties due to the impacts of tides are greater than 50 of the tsunami heights without tidal interaction the results recommend simulate tsunamis together with tides in shallow water environments to reduce the uncertainties involved with tsunami modeling and predictions for tsunami hazards preparedness

the slip distribution of the 1946 nankai earthquake estimated from tsunami inversion using a new plate model abstract a new model for the shape of the philippine sea plate psp subducting beneath southwest japan was constructed by combining marine seismic survey results and seismicity data this resulted in a plate model that is generally 3 5 km shallower than previous estimates and contains new details of plate boundary structure near the nankai trough axis we estimated the slip distribution of the 1946 nankai earthquake by inverting tsunami waveforms using the new plate boundary model and found that the large slip off cape muroto and seismic moment were reduced by about 10 from the previous estimate of tanioka and satake 2001a however we also found reason to suspect the tide gauge closest to the epicenter at shimotsu and this resulted in a much more substantial reduction in the amount of slip in the eastern segment of the rupture area we also find that our new rupture model correlates well with features of the subducting plate boundary such as a large subducting seamount off cape muroto kodaira et al 2000a this suggests that such features have an important effect on either earthquake rupture propagation or the interseismic accumulation of elastic strain energy or both

detailed coseismic slip distribution of the 1944 tonankai earthquake estimated from tsunami waveforms coseismic slip distribution on the fault plane of the 1944 tonankai earthquake is estimated from inversion of tsunami waveforms three improvements from a previous study satake 1993 are made these are 1 smaller subfaults are used to resolve detailed slip distribution 2 the sub faults fit better to the plate interface geometry and 3 finer and more accurate bathymetry data is used the inversion result shows that a maximum slip of about 3 m occurred on the plate interface off shima peninsula the total seismic moment is estimated to be 2 0 1021 nm mw 8 2 the result confirms that the 1944 tonankai earthquake did not rupture the plate interface beneath the tokai region and supports the existence of the seismic gap in the tokai region suggested by ishibashi 1981 the slip of about 1 5 m on the plate interface beneath atsumi peninsula northeast of the large slip area is necessary to explain the observed tsunami waveforms although no seismic moment release was estimated from strong motion data by kikuchi et al 1999 this may suggest that the rupture beneath atsumi peninsula was slow