combining local and remote infrasound recordings from the 2009 redoubt volcano eruption abstract the explosive phase of the 2009 redoubt volcano eruption produced predominantly short duration high amplitude infrasound signals recorded up to 4500 km away all 19 numbered explosive events were recorded at a local microphone dfr 12 km as well as at an infrasound array in fairbanks alaska i53us 547 km most with high signal to noise ratios the local microphone provides an estimate of the source parameters and comparison between the two datasets allows the unique opportunity to evaluate acoustic source term estimation at a remote array high waveform similarity between dfr and i53us occurs during much of the explosive phase due to strong stratospheric ducting permitting accurate source constraints inferred from i53us data cross correlation analysis after applying a hilbert transform to the i53us data shows how the acoustic energy has passed through a single caustic as predicted by ray theory similar to previous studies significant low frequency infrasound from redoubt recorded at i53us is coincident with high altitude ash emissions the largest events also produced considerable energy at greater than 50 s periods likely related to the initial oscillations of the volcanic plume or jet many of the explosive events have emergent onsets somewhat unusual for explosive short duration eruptions comparison of the satellite derived so2 emissions with the relative amount of acoustic energy at i53us shows a very high statistically significant correlation this study reiterates the utility of using remote infrasound arrays for detection of hazardous emissions and characterization of large volcanic eruptions and demonstrates how under typical meteorological conditions remote infrasound arrays can provide an accurate representation of the acoustic source

space geodetic tools provide early warnings for earthquakes and volcanic eruptions development of space geodetic techniques such as global navigation satellite system and synthetic aperture radar in last few decades allows us to monitor deformation of earth s surface in unprecedented spatial and temporal resolution these observations combined with fast data transmission and quick data processing enable us to quickly detect and locate earthquakes and volcanic eruptions and assess potential hazards such as strong earthquake shaking tsunamis and volcanic eruptions these techniques thus are key parts of early warning systems help identify some hazards before a cataclysmic event and improve the response to the consequent damage

millennial scale fluctuations of the european ice sheet at the end of the last glacial and their potential impact on global climate abstract reconstructing northern hemisphere ice sheet oscillations and meltwater routing to the ocean is important to better understand the mechanisms behind abrupt climate changes to date research efforts have mainly focused on the north american laurentide ice sheets lis leaving the potential role of the european ice sheet eis and of the scandinavian ice sheet sis in particular largely unexplored using neodymium isotopes in detrital sediments deposited off the channel river we provide a continuous and well dated record for the evolution of the eis southern margin through the end of the last glacial period and during the deglaciation our results reveal that the evolution of eis margins was accompanied with substantial ice recession especially of the sis and simultaneous release of meltwater to the north atlantic these events occurred both in the course of the eis to its lgm position i e during heinrich stadial hs 3 and hs2 31 29 ka and 26 23 ka respectively and during the deglaciation i e at 22 ka 20 19 ka and from 18 2 0 2 to 16 7 0 2 ka that corresponds to the first part of hs1 the deglaciation was discontinuous in character and similar in timing to that of the southern lis margin with moderate ice sheet retreat from 22 5 0 2 ka in the baltic lowlands as soon as the northern summer insolation increase from 23 ka and an acceleration of the margin retreat thereafter from 20 ka importantly our results show that eis retreat events and release of meltwater to the north atlantic during the deglaciation coincide with amoc destabilisation and interhemispheric climate changes they thus suggest that the eis together with the lis could have played a critical role in the climatic reorganization that accompanied the last deglaciation finally our data suggest that meltwater discharges to the north atlantic produced by large scale recession of continental parts of northern hemisphere ice sheets during hs could have been a possible source for the oceanic perturbations i e amoc shutdown responsible for the marine based ice stream purge cycle or so called he s that punctuate the last glacial period

geodetic observations during the 2009 eruption of redoubt volcano alaska abstract in march 2009 redoubt volcano about 160 km to the sw of anchorage alaska began its most recent explosive eruption deformation induced by this event was recorded by a gps campaign network consisting of 14 benchmarks which had been established in 1991 after the previous eruption the network was partially reoccupied in 2001 and 2008 and no volcanic deformation was detected during that period in response to precursory unrest starting in january 2009 the alaska volcano observatory temporarily deployed continuously recording gps instruments at four of the campaign benchmarks only days before the onset of explosive activity in march 2009 the only gps instrument recording continuously during the months prior to the eruption was the plate boundary observatory pbo station ac17 about 28 km northeast of the volcano s summit data from this station reveals subtle motion radially outward from the volcano beginning as early as may 2008 which reversed with the onset of explosive activity using simple analytical models we link the precursory activity to a point source intrusion of 0 0194 0 03400 0092 km3 in volume at 13 50 17 3310 17 km below sea level bsl superscripts and subscripts refer to upper and lower ends of confidence intervals at the 95 level during the explosive phase about 0 05 0 10 028 km3 of magma was evacuated from a prolate spheroid with its centroid at 9 17 15 176 92 km bsl a semimajor axis of 4 50 10 001 25 km length and a semi minor axis of 0 475 4 00 3 km the effusive activity is inferred to come from the same source decreasing in volume by 0 0167 0 02280 0106 km3 including observations from seismology and petrology we hypothesize a mid crustal two reservoir system with material sourced from 20 km flowing in at about 13 5 km depth and reheating residual material in the proposed spheroid the mixture migrated to shallower depth 2 4 5 km bsl and reheated material there as this residual magma erupted it was replaced by the material from the spheroidal reservoir at 7 11 5 km depth which renders the shallow source undetectable for geodetic instruments in addition to long term displacements we investigate sub daily kinematic positioning solutions and find that large short term positioning offsets correlate with large explosive events spikes in phase residuals plotted along the sky tracks of individual satellites can be related to individual plumes given favorable satellite station geometry which may be of use in volcano monitoring

a study of cleaning procedures used for foraminiferal mg ca paleothermometry the various cleaning steps required for preparation of foraminiferal samples for mg ca and sr ca analysis are evaluated for their relative importance and effects on measured elemental ratios it is shown that the removal of silicate contamination is the most important step for the measurement of mg ca ratios in an example bulk sample mg ca decreases from 10 5 to 2 5 mmol mol 1 during clay removal oxidation of organic material causes a lowering of sample mg ca in the order of 10 or approximately 1 c when converted to temperature use of dilute acid leaching to remove adsorbed contaminants causes partial dissolution of the sample carbonate and a corresponding decrease in mg ca reductive treatment also causes dissolution of the sample and a decrease in the mg ca ratio of up to 10 15 sample preparation for sr ca analysis does not require the same degree of rigor as is necessary for mg ca work the within run reproducibility of the method described here for g ruber in a core top sample from the arabian sea was 1 8 mean sample ratio was 4 72 mmol mol 1 when converted to temperature this becomes 28 0 2 c the equivalent result for sr ca was 0 5 mean ratio 1 44 mmol mol 1

detection of plumes at redoubt and etna volcanoes using the gps snr method abstract detection and characterization of volcanic eruptions is important both for public health and aircraft safety a variety of ground sensors are used to monitor volcanic eruptions data from these ground sensors are subsequently incorporated into models that predict the movement of ash here a method to detect volcanic plumes using gps signals is described rather than carrier phase data used by geodesists the method takes advantage of attenuations in signal to noise ratio snr data two datasets are evaluated the 2009 redoubt volcano eruptions and the 2013 2015 eruptions at mt etna snr based eruption durations are compared with previously published seismic infrasonic and radar studies at redoubt volcano snr based plume detections from mt etna are compared with l band radar and tremor observations to place these snr observations from redoubt and etna in context a model of the propagation of gps signals through both water water vapor and tephra is developed neither water nor fine ash particles will produce the observed attenuation of gps signals while scattering caused by particles 1 cm in diameter potentially could

warming of surface waters in the mid latitude north atlantic during heinrich events 1 during the six heinrich events of the last 70 kyr episodic calving from the circum atlantic ice sheets released large numbers of icebergs into the north atlantic these icebergs and associated meltwater flux are hypothesized to have led to a shutdown of atlantic meridional overturning circulation and severe cooling in large parts of the northern hemisphere however due to the limited availability of high resolution records the magnitude of sea surface temperature sst changes related to the impact of heinrich events on the midlatitude north atlantic is poorly constrained here we present a record of u37k based ssts derived from sediments of integrated ocean drilling project site u1313 located at the southern end of the ice rafted debris ird belt in the midlatitude north atlantic 41 n we demonstrate that all six heinrich events are associated with a rapid warming of surface waters by 2 4 c in a few thousand years the presence of ird leaves no doubt about the simultaneous timing and correlation between rapid surface water warming and heinrich events we argue that this warming in the midlatitude north atlantic is related to a northward expansion of the subtropical gyre during heinrich events as a wide range of studies demonstrated that in the central ird belt heinrich events are associated with low ssts these results thus identify an antiphased seesaw pattern in ssts during heinrich events between the midlatitude warm and northern north atlantic cold this highlights the complex response of surface water characteristics in the north atlantic to heinrich events that is poorly reproduced by freshwater hosing experiments and challenges the widely accepted view that within the ird belt of the north atlantic heinrich events coincide with periods of low ssts

eastern pacific hurricanes jimena of 1991 and olivia of 1994 the effect of vertical shear on structure and intensity abstract shear is a key inhibitor of tropical cyclone intensification although its signature is readily recognized in satellite imagery and theoretical or modeling studies provide some insight detailed observations have been limited airborne radar and in situ observations in hurricanes jimena of 1991 and olivia of 1994 are a step toward better understanding each storm was observed on two consecutive days initially both had small eyes 16 18 km radius and maximum winds of 57 m s 1 over sea surface temperatures sst 28 c in easterly environmental shear jimena maintained constant intensity or weakened gradually for 2 days in 13 20 m s 1 easterly shear olivia intensified in 8 m s 1 shear on the first day overnight the shear diminished to reverse and became westerly on the second day olivia weakened as the shear increased to 15 m s 1 from the west the storm moved over cooler sst and became surrounded by dryer air as convection weakened and the outer rainbands ceased to be effective barriers

origin and consequences of cyclic ice rafting in the northeast atlantic ocean during the past 130 000 years deep sea sediment cores recovered from the northeast atlantic ocean were examined in order to elucidate the influence of the earth s orbital parameters on major ice rafting analyses of coarse grained ice rafted debris and planktonic foraminifers revealed a strong reaction to the precession signal since 130 000 yr b p dropstone layers have been deposited each half period of a precessional cycle 11 000 1000 yr ice rafting occurs during times of winter minimum summer maximum insolation and summer minimum winter maximum insolation in the first case high summer insolation forces meltwater discharge from the ice sheets into the polar seas which subsequently enhances formation of sea ice during the winter in the second case growth of continental ice enhances iceberg production which also leads to a salinity reduction of surface seawater both situations result in a southward penetration of polar water thus the marine record of dropstones documents ice rafting not only during weichselian stades but also during cold events within interstades the regularity of ice rafting yields a useful framework to calibrate and elucidate climatic changes not only in the region of the north atlantic ocean but also in remote areas such as the pacific ocean and the antarctic

ice proximal labrador sea heinrich layers a sedimentological approach during late pleistocene heinrich events h events distinct decimetre to centimetre thick layers of ice rafted debris ird were deposited in the north atlantic as heinrich layers h layers th

termination 1 timing in radiocarbon dated regional benthic δ18o stacks benthic 18o changes are often assumed to be globally synchronous but studies comparing 2 9 radiocarbon dated records over the most recent deglaciation termination 1 have proposed differences in the timing of benthic 18o change between the atlantic and pacific intermediate and deep and north and south atlantic because of the relatively small number of records used in these previous studies it has remained unclear whether these differences are local or regional in scale here we present seven regional benthic 18o stacks for 0 40 kyr b p that include 252 records with independent regional age models constrained by 852 planktonic foraminiferal 14c dates from 61 of these cores we find a 4000 year difference between the earliest termination onset in the intermediate south atlantic at 18 5 95 confidence interval 17 9 19 0 kyr b p and the latest in the deep indian at 14 5 14 1 15 0 kyr b p the termination onset occurs at 17 5 kyr b p in the intermediate and deep north atlantic deep south atlantic and deep pacific however throughout the termination deep north atlantic benthic 18o leads the deep pacific by an average of 1000 year and a maximum of 1700 year additionally the intermediate pacific termination onset at 16 5 16 1 16 9 kyr b p demonstrates that intermediate depth benthic 18o change was not globally synchronous these regional stacks provide better age models than a global stack across termination 1 and potentially important constraints on deglacial ocean circulation changes

binge purge oscillations of the laurentide ice sheet as a cause of the north atlantic s heinrich events ice rafted debris in sediment cores from the north atlantic suggests that the laurentide ice sheet lis periodically disgorged icebergs in brief but violent episodes which occurred approximately every 7 000 years here i propose that heinrich events i e what these episodes are called were caused by free oscillations in the flow of the laurentide ice sheet which arose because the floor of hudson bay and hudson strait is covered with soft unconsolidated sediment that forms a slippery lubricant when thawed the proposed heinrich event cycle has two phases the growth phase occurs when the sediment is frozen and the lis is stranded immobile on a rigid bed the volume of the lis slowly grows during this phase at a rate dictated by snow accumulation the purge phase occurs when the basal sediment thaws and a basally lubricated discharge pathway i e an ice stream such as those which occur in west antarctica today developes through hudson strait the volume of the lis rapidly equilibrates to the reduced basal friction during this phase by dumping icebergs into the labrador sea the periodicity t k sl2g 2 7000 years of the proposed heinrich event cycle is a function of the thermal conductivity and diffusivity of ice k and respectively the atmospheric sea level temperature sl in degrees celsius and the excess geothermal heat flux defined by g g k where is the atmospheric lapse rate and g is the geothermal heat flux agreement between the predicted t and the apparent periodicity implied by the marine record is the main virtue of the free oscillation mechanism i propose an alternative mechanism in which heinrich events are forced by periodic variations in external climate is implausible because periodic atmospheric temperature perturbations are strongly attenuated with depth in an ice sheet

effects of vertical wind shear on the intensity and structure of numerically simulated hurricanes a series of numerical simulations of tropical cyclones in idealized large scale environments is performed to examine the effects of vertical wind shear on the structure and intensity of hurricanes the simulations are performed using the nonhydrostatic pennsylvania state university national center for atmospheric research fifth generation mesoscale model using a 5 km fine mesh and fully explicit representation of moist processes when large scale vertical shears are applied to mature tropical cyclones the storms quickly develop wavenumber one asymmetries with upward motion and rainfall concentrated on the left side of the shear vector looking downshear in agreement with earlier studies the asymmetries develop due to the storm s response to imbalances caused by the shear the storms in shear weaken with time and eventually reach an approximate steady state intensity that is well below their theoretical maximum potential intensity as expected the magnitude of the weakening increases with increasing shear all of the storms experience time lags between the imposition of the large scale shear and the resulting rise in the minimum central pressure while the lag is at most a few hours when the storm is placed in very strong 15 m s21 shear storms in weaker shears experience much longer lag times with th e5ms 21 shear case showing no signs of weakening until more than 36 h after the shear is applied these lags suggest that the storm intensity is to some degree predictable from observations of largescale shear changes in all cases both the development of the asymmetries in core structure and the subsequent weakening of the storm occur before any resolvable tilt of the storm s vertical axis occurs it is hypothesized that the weakening of the storm occurs via the following sequence of events first the shear causes the structure of the eyewall region to become highly asymmetric throughout the depth of the storm second the asymmetries in the upper troposphere where the storm circulation is weaker become sufficiently strong that air with high values of potential vorticity and equivalent potential temperature are mixed outward rather than into the eye this allows the shear to ventilate the eye resulting in a loss of the warm core at upper levels which causes the central pressure to rise weakening the entire storm the maximum potential vorticity becomes concentrated in saturated portions of the eyewall cloud aloft rather than in the eye third the asymmetric features at upper levels are advected by the shear causing the upper portions of the vortex to tilt approximately downshear the storm weakens from the top down reaching an approximate steady state intensity when the ventilated layer can descend no farther due to the increasing strength and stability of the vortex at lower levels

the deglaciation over laurentian fan history of diatoms ird ice and fresh water abstract a high resolution diatom census coupled with other proxy data from laurentian fan lf provides a detailed description of the last deglaciation bringing new insight to that period by revealing directly the timing of sea ice formation and melting cold events heinrich event 1 h1 and the younger dryas yd were multiphase events h1 16 8 15 7 cal kyr bp was defined by a two pulse release of icebergs promoting sea ice formation melting of sea ice after h1 corresponds to a cold and fresh anomaly that may have kept the bolling colder than the allerod at 13 6 cal kyr bp a cooling trend culminated with sea ice formation marking the yd onset 12 8 cal kyr bp the decrease in sea ice 12 2 cal kyr bp led to a yd second phase characterized by very cold winters however the contribution of warm water diatoms tends to increase at the same time and the yd gradual end 11 6 cal kyr bp contrasts with its abrupt end in greenland ice cores the yd cannot be regarded as an event triggered by a fresh water input through the laurentian channel since only one weak brief input nearly 1000 yrs after its onset is recorded very cold and cool conditions without ice mark the following preboreal a northward heat flux between 10 8 and 10 2 cal kyr bp was interrupted by the increased influence of coastal waters likely fed by inland melting there was no further development of sea ice or ice drift then

the 8200 year b p event in the slope water system western subpolar north atlantic 1 stable isotope trace metal alkenone paleothermometry and radiocarbon methods have been applied to sediment cores in the western subpolar north atlantic between hudson strait and cape hatteras to reveal the history of climate in that region over the past 11 kyr we focus on cores from the laurentian fan which is known to have rapid and continuous accumulation of hemipelagic sediment although results among our various proxy data are not always in agreement the weight of the evidence alkenone sea surface temperature sst 18o and abundance of globigerinoides ruber indicates a continual cooling of surface waters over laurentian fan from about 18 c in the early holocene to about 8 c today alternatively mg ca data on planktonic foraminifera indicate no systematic change in holocene sst the inferred long term decrease in sst was probably driven by decreasing seasonality of northern hemisphere insolation two series of proxy data show the gradual cooling was interrupted by a two step cold pulse that began 8500 years ago and lasted about 700 years although this event is associated with the final deglaciation of hudson bay there is no 18o minimum anywhere in the labrador sea yet there is some evidence for it as far south as cape hatteras finally although the 8200 year b p event has been implicated in decreasing north atlantic ventilation and hence widespread temperature depression on land and at sea we find inconsistent evidence for a change at that time in deep ocean nutrient content at 4 km water depth

atlantic pacific seesaw and its role in outgassing co2 during heinrich events 1 paleoproxy records indicate that a marked weakening of the atlantic meridional overturning circulation amoc during heinrich events was often accompanied by a notable atmospheric co2 increase however previous modeling studies display conflicting atmospheric co2 responses to an amoc shutdown here we use model simulations combined with paleoproxy records to show that depending on the deep and bottom water transport in the northern and southern pacific ocean during an amoc weakening the ocean can act either as a sink or a source of carbon results from idealized meltwater experiments as well as from a transient experiment covering heinrich stadial 4 suggest that a shutdown of the amoc during heinrich stadials 4 hs4 and 1 hs1 led to an enhancement of antarctic bottom water aabw and north pacific deep water npdw transport we show that enhanced deep and bottom water transport in the pacific ocean ventilates deep pacific carbon through the southern ocean thus contributing to a rise in atmospheric co2 this mechanism yields a good agreement between paleoproxy records and modeling results thus highlighting the possible establishment of an atlantic pacific seesaw during heinrich stadials enhanced aabw and npdw transport could account for most of the observed atmospheric co2 increase during hs4 and for about 30 of the atmospheric co2 increase during hs1

dysaerobic conditions during heinrich events 4 and 5 evidence from phosphorus distribution in a north atlantic deep sea core abstract reactive phosphorus undergoes diagenetic transformation once transferred into marine sediments the degree of regeneration and redistribution of phosphorus depends on early diagenetic and environmental conditions which may be linked to larger scale phenomena such as bottom water circulation water column ventilation and organic carbon flux phosphorus phases of the

local seismic and infrasound observations of the 2009 explosive eruptions of redoubt volcano alaska article i nfo local seismic and infrasound data are used to characterize the march april 2009 eruptions of redoubt volca no alaska data are from a network of ten seismic stations ranging from 2 6 to 21 km from the vent and a single infrasound sensor 12 2 km from the vent measurements were made for more than 30 explosive erup tions including the 19 numbered events that were identified during the eruption response more than 30 smaller explosions were also identified measured parameters include onset time duration reduced dis placement dr pressure seismic energy and acoustic energy results were compared with complementary gas and lightning data based on ratios of pressure to dr and acoustic to seismic energy we find that the initial group of explosive eruptions on 23 24 march was relatively stronger seismically and included the four highest dr values we infer that these represent vent enlargement or stronger coupling between the magma and wall rocks one event at 12 31 ut on 23 march had an extremely high pressure of 250 pa for the initial pulse and was likely weakly seismically coupled a second group of explosive eruptions on 27 29 march was relatively stronger acoustically deposits were finer grained and of different lithology with less scoria and more dense clasts these two groups may represent different modes of gas release cumulative acoustic energy as a function of time correlates well with comparable lightning and so2 data suggesting that all three provide insight regarding different factors of gas release for the eruption as a whole the number of events identified depends on criteria measured and depends on the goals of the investigations overall the eruptions were substantially stronger than recent eruptions in alaska with some durations exceeding 1 h and pressures an order of magnitude higher

the effect of vertical shear on tropical cyclone intensity change abstract the effect of vertical shear on tropical cyclone intensity change is usually explained in terms of ventilation where heat and moisture at upper levels are advected away from the low level circulation which inhibits development a simple two layer diagnostic balance model is used to provide an alternate explanation of the effect of shear when the upper layer wind in the vortex environment differs from that in the lower layer the potential vorticity pv pattern associated with the vortex circulation becomes tilted in the vertical the balanced mass field associated with the tilted pv pattern requires an increased midlevel temperature perturbation near the vortex center it is hypothesized that this midlevel warming reduces the convective activity and inhibits the storm development previous studies have shown that diabatic heating near the storm center acts to reduce the vertical tilt of the vortex circulation these studies have also shown that there is an adiabatic process that acts to redu

sounding the plume of the 18 august 2000 eruption of miyakejima volcano japan using gps 1 we processed 79 days of gps data collected at four stations on miyakejima volcano japan before and during its eruption in 2000 this period includes a strong seismic swarm 27 june to 8 july followed by five eruptions 8 and 14 15 july 10 18 and 29 august surface motion is strong during the seismic swarm then remains almost steady during eruptions however during each eruption we found anomalous values of the lc ionosphere free double differences especially on 18 august with a peak of 0 6 cycles i e an apparent 290 mm increase of the satellite station range we cannot explain these anomalies by temporary ground displacements during the events instead we propose that they are due to path delay effects in the hot volcanic plume by adapting a seismic tomography algorithm the refractivity anomaly and the inferred temperature in the plume is mapped in time and space

potential vorticity diagnosis of a simulated hurricane part ii quasi balanced contributions to forced secondary circulations although the forced secondary circulations fscs associated with hurricane like vortices have been previously examined understanding is still limited to idealized axisymmetric flows and forcing functions in this study the individual contributions of latent heating frictional and dry dynamical processes to the fscs of a hurricane vortex are separated in order to examine how a hurricane can intensify against the destructive action of vertical shear and how a warm cored eye forms this is achieved by applying a potential vorticity pv inversion and quasi balanced omega equations system to a cloud resolving simulation of hurricane andrew 1992 during its mature stage with the finest grid size of 6 km it is shown that the latent heating fsc tilting outward with height acts to oppose the shear forced vertical tilt of the storm and part of the upward mass fluxes near the top of the eyewall is detrained inward causing the convergence aloft and subsidence warming in the hurricane eye the friction fsc is similar to that of the ekman pumping with its peak upward motion occurring near the top of the planetary boundary layer pbl in the eye about 40 of the pbl convergence is related to surface friction and the rest to latent heating in the eyewall in contrast the dry dynamical forcing is determined by vertical shear and system relative flow when an axisymmetric balanced vortex is subjected to westerly shear a deep countershear fsc appears across the inner core region with the rising sinking motion downshear upshear and easterly sheared horizontal flows in the vertical the shear fsc is shown to reduce the destructive roles of the large scale shear imposed as much as 40 including its forced vertical tilt moreover the shear fsc intensity is near linearly proportional to the shear magnitude and the wavenumber 1 vertical motion asymmetry can be considered as the integrated effects of the shear fscs from all the tropospheric layers the shear fsc can be attributed to the laplacian of thermal advection and the temporal and spatial variations of centrifugal force in the quasi balanced omega equation and confirms the previous finding of the development of wavenumber 1 cloud asymmetries in hurricanes hurricane eye dynamics are presented by synthesizing the latent heating fsc with previous studies the authors propose to separate the eye formation from maintenance processes the upper level inward mass detrainment forces the subsidence warming and the formation of an eye the surface pressure fall and increased rotation in the eyewall this increased rotation will induce an additional vertical pressure gradient force to balance the net buoyancy generated by the subsidence warming for the maintenance of the hurricane eye in this sense the negative vertical shear in tangential wind in the eyewall should be considered as being forced by the subsidence warming and maintained by the rotation in the eyewall

detecting complex eruption sequence and directionality from high rate geodetic observations the august 6 2012 te maari eruption tongariro new zealand abstract the tongariro te maari crater new zealand erupted for the first time in over 80 years on august 6 2012 because it occurred at night the short lived eruption prevented direct visual observations hence presenting some challenges for understanding the complex eruptive sequence and reach of the various explosions using 1 hz global positioning system gps data from the local volcano monitoring network we computed the gps lc phase residuals and snr data at the time of the eruption and show that several processes successively affected the signal at the closest gps station firstly the signal from one of the satellites shows two successive drops of snr caused by the presence of two distinct dense ash laden plumes near the vent produced successively by the second and last of the main eruption pulses secondly we show that a gas charged debris avalanche and a lateral blast successively entrained hot and or humid air over 3 km away from the vent atop the vgkr gps station while the limited amount of data prevents fully quantitative analyses and estimates of temperature or humidity in the lateral air flow our results document the first recorded detection of a small scale lateral plume by gps technology they highlight the potential of gps data analysis for improving our understanding of eruptive sequences when visual observations are limited

shear forced vertical circulations in tropical cyclones 1 the forced secondary circulation fsc by the vertical shear of horizontal winds is isolated from the latent heating and friction fscs associated with a model simulated hurricane vortex this is achieved by use of a newly developed potential vorticity inversion and quasi balanced vertical motion equations system results show that latent heating forces intense updrafts in the eyewall and slow subsidence in the eye whereas the friction fsc is similar to that of the ekman pumping with the peak ascent occurring near the top of the boundary layer in the eye in contrast when an environmental westerly shear is superposed with an axisymmetric balanced vortex an anticlockwise fsc appears across the inner core region with the rising motion downshear and easterly sheared horizontal flows in the vertical the resulting horizontal flows act to reduce the influence of the vertical shear inside the storm by as much as 30 40 thus opposing the destructive roles of the vertical shear

detection of ground motions using high rate gps time series monitoring surface deformation in real time help at planning and protecting infrastructures and populations manage sensitive production i e seveso type and mitigate long term consequences of modifications implemented we present rt shake an algorithm developed to detect ground motions associated with landslides sub surface collapses subsidences earthquakes or rock falls rt shake detects first transient changes in individual gps time series before investigating for spatial correlation s of observations made at neighbouring gps sites and eventually issue a motion warning in order to assess our algorithm on fast seconds to minute large from 1cm to meters and spatially consistent surface motions we use the 1hz geonet gnss network data of the tohoku oki mw9 0 2011 as a test scenario we show the delay of detection of seismic wave arrival by gps records is of 10 seconds with respect to an identical analysis based on strong motion data and this time delay depends on the level of the time variable noise nevertheless based on the analysis of the gps network noise level and ground motion stochastic model we show that rt shake can narrow the range of earthquake magnitude by setting a lower threshold of detected earthquakes to mw6 5 7 if associated with a real time automatic earthquake location system

a new way to detect volcanic plumes 1 detection of volcanic plumes especially ash laden ones is important both for public health and aircraft safety a variety of geophysical tools and satellite data are used to monitor volcanic eruptions and to predict the movement of ash however satellite based methods are restricted by time of day and weather while radars are often unavailable because of cost portability here a method is proposed to detect volcanic plumes using gps signal strength data the strengths and limitations of the method are assessed using gps data collected during the 2008 and 2009 eruptions of the okmok and mt redoubt volcanoes plume detections using this gps technique are consistent with independently collected seismic and radar data

high resolution record of northern hemisphere climate extending into the last interglacial period high resolution record of northern hemisphere climate extending into the last interglacial period

numerical simulation of hurricane bonnie 1998 part i eyewall evolution and intensity changes abstract in this study a 5 day explicit simulation of hurricane bonnie 1998 is performed using the fifth generation pennsylvania state university national center for atmospheric research mesoscale model mm5 with the finest grid length of 4 km the initial mass wind and moisture fields of the hurricane vortex are retrieved from the advanced microwave sounding unit a amsu a satellite measurements and the sea surface temperature sst is updated daily it is shown that the simulated track is within 3 latitude longitude of the best track at the end of the 5 day integration but with the landfalling point close to the observed the model also reproduces reasonably well the hurricane intensity and intensity changes asymmetries in cloud and precipitation as well as the vertical structures of dynamic and thermodynamic fields in the eye and eyewall it is shown that the storm deepens markedly in the first 2 days during which period its environmental vertical shear increases substantially it is found

a statistical analysis of the effects of vertical wind shear on tropical cyclone intensity change over the western north pacific abstractthe effect of vertical wind shear vws between different pressure levels on tc intensity change is statistically analyzed based on the best track data of tropical cyclones tcs in the western north pacific wnp from the joint typhoon warning center jtwc and the ecmwf interim reanalysis era interim data during 1981 2013 results show that the commonly used vws measure between 200 and 850 hpa is less representative of the attenuating deep layer shear effect than that between 300 and 1000 hpa moreover the authors find that the low level shear between 850 or 700 and 1000 hpa is more negatively correlated with tc intensity change than any deep layer shear during the active typhoon season whereas deep layer shear turns out to be more influential than low level shear during the remaining less active seasons further analysis covering all seasons exhibits that a tc has a better chance to intensify than to decay when the deep layer shear is lower than 7 9 m s 1 and the low level shear is below

the influence of the ocean on typhoon nuri 2008 abstracttyphoon nuri 2008 was 1 of approximately 120 typhoons in the past 60 years that passed through a narrow gap the luzon strait connecting the western north pacific and the south china sea scs in total 70 of these storms including nuri reached their maximum intensities over the warm waters east of luzon and in the kuroshio then rapidly weakened in the scs numerical experiments were conducted to understand the intensity change of nuri westward across the kuroshio in the luzon strait the 26 c isotherm shallows rapidly by half this and stronger mixing by wind ocean resonance preferentially cooled sea surface temperature and weakened the typhoon in scs a positive feedback mechanism is then described to explain the intensification of nuri over the western north pacific

centennial scale surface hydrology off portugal during marine isotope stage 3 insights from planktonic foraminiferal fauna variability 1 the marine isotopic stage 3 mis3 at ocean drilling program odp site 1060 gulf stream shows both sharp onset and end of interstadials the existence of very short lived warm events during stadials and points to differences in detail between the sea surface temperature sst record from the western north atlantic and the atmospheric temperature record inferred from 18o in greenland ice investigating mis3 and obtaining comparable data from other locations appears crucial the eastern atlantic provides well documented records of climate changes we have selected a core from off portugal and use it to examine dansgaard oeschger events d o at centennial scale resolution 139 years on average between two data points we have obtained a faunal data set for core md01 2444 37 n 10 w 2600 m water depth and use a group of species globigerina bulloides globigerinita glutinata as a proxy of upwelling intensity driven by trade winds intensity changes we tentatively relate the variation of this group to a north atlantic oscillation like phenomenon nao off portugal we observe that it resembles the rainfall index in the caribbean as recorded at odp site 1002 cariaco basin which traces the intertropical convergence zone itcz location through changes of terrigenous inputs the driest intervals itzc to the south at site 1002 correspond to intervals of increased upwelling in md01 2444 as well as the driest periods identified during stadials on similar cores in the area because the itzc to the south is consistent with an el nino southern oscillation enso situation our study suggests a positive correlation between enso like conditions and nao like conditions at a millennial timescale during interstadial intervals when increased wetness over cariaco is recorded itcz to the north and the upwelling in md01 2444 is decreased we see from both ssts and faunal tropical indicators that md01 2444 site is warm in addition interstadials are equally warm through each so called bond cycle this contrasts with the greenland ice core project grip record where interstadial peaks are successively cooler through each bond cycle this record confirms a link between tropical climate linked to itcz position and the climate of southern europe at millennial timescales in spite of showing a very good correlation with polar latitudes grip through 18o on globigerina bulloides in addition because the warmest ssts and the 18o on g bulloides are so remarkably different our work points to changes in seasonality as a strong control over the climatic pattern of the north atlantic area and the marked influence of winter conditions

the last glacial termination a major puzzle of paleoclimatology is why after a long interval of cooling climate each late quaternary ice age ended with a relatively short warming leg called a termination we here offer a comprehensive hypothesis of how earth emerged from the last global ice age a prerequisite was the growth of very large northern hemisphere ice sheets whose subsequent collapse created stadial conditions that disrupted global patterns of ocean and atmospheric circulation the southern hemisphere westerlies shifted poleward during each northern stadial producing pulses of ocean upwelling and warming that together accounted for much of the termination in the southern ocean and antarctica rising atmospheric co2 during southern upwelling pulses augmented warming during the last termination in both polar hemispheres

can we measure snow depth with gps receivers 1 snow is an important component of the climate system and a critical storage component in the hydrologic cycle however in situ observations of snow distribution are sparse and remotely sensed products are imprecise and only available at a coarse spatial scale gps geodesists have long recognized that snow can affect a gps signal but it has not been shown that a gps receiver placed in a standard geodetic orientation can be used to measure snow depth in this paper it is shown that changes in snow depth can be clearly tracked in the corresponding multipath modulation of the gps signal results for two spring 2009 snowstorms in colorado show strong agreement between gps snow depth estimates field measurements and nearby ultrasonic snow depth sensors because there are hundreds of geodetic gps receivers operating in snowy regions of the u s it is possible that gps receivers installed for plate deformation studies surveying and weather monitoring could be used to also estimate snow depth

doppler weather radar observations of the 2009 eruption of redoubt volcano alaska abstract the u s geological survey usgs deployed a transportable doppler c band radar during the precursory stage of the 2009 eruption of redoubt volcano alaska that provided valuable information during subsequent explosive events we describe the capabilities of this new monitoring tool and present data captured during the redoubt eruption the minimax 250 c mm 250c radar detected seventeen of the nineteen largest explosive events between march 23 and april 4 2009 sixteen of these events reached the stratosphere above 10 km within 2 5 min of explosion onset high column and proximal cloud reflectivity values 50 to 60 dbz were observed from many of these events and were likely due to the formation of mm sized accretionary tephra ice pellets reflectivity data suggest that these pellets formed within the first few minutes of explosion onset rapid sedimentation of the mm sized pellets was observed as a decrease in maximum detection cloud height the volcanic cloud from the april 4 explosive event showed lower reflectivity values due to finer particle sizes related to dome collapse and related pyroclastic flows and lack of significant pellet formation eruption durations determined by the radar were within a factor of two compared to seismic and pressure sensor derived estimates and were not well correlated ash dispersion observed by the radar was primarily in the upper troposphere below 10 km but satellite observations indicate the presence of volcanogenic clouds in the stratosphere this study suggests that radar is a valuable complement to traditional seismic and satellite monitoring of explosive eruptions

influence of the water content on x ray fluorescence core scanning measurements in soft marine sediments the x ray fluorescence xrf core scanner provides bulk sediment chemistry data measured nondestructively at the split core sediment surface although this method is widely accepted there is little known about the effects of physical properties such as density and water content on xrf core scanner data comparison of xrf scanner measurements from the sediment surface and dry powder samples of sediment core geob7920 indicates strongly reduced element intensities for the lighter elements al and si we relate the lower element intensities of the measurements taken at the sediment surface to the amount of water in the sample volume analyzed by the xrf core scanner the heavier elements k ca ti and fe remain relatively unaffected by the variation of any physical property within sediment core geob7920 additionally we successfully use the elemental intensity of cl as a proxy for the seawater content in the sample volume analyzed by the xrf core scanner this enables the establishment of a correction function for the elements al and si that corrects for the radiation absorption of the water content in sediment core geob7920 off cape blanc nw africa

tropical cyclone motion and evolution in vertical shear abstract the motion and the evolution of tropical cyclone like vortices in an environmental flow with vertical shear are investigated using a baroclinic primitive equation model the study focuses on the fundamental dynamics of a baroclinic vortex in vertical shear the influence of vortex structure and the role of diabatic heating the results show that the initial response of the vortex to the vertical shear is to tilt downshear as soon as the tilt develops the upper level anticyclonic and lower level cyclonic circulations begin to interact with each other as a result of these interactions the tilted axis of the vortex reaches a stable state after an initial adjustment which varies with the structure of the vortex its environmental flow shear and the cumulus convective heating the motion of an adiabatic vortex in vertical shear is controlled by both the steering of the environmental flow and vertical coupling mechanisms most of the vortices move with the environmental flow at about 650 hpa or

on the initial development of asymmetric vertical motion and horizontal relative flow in a mature tropical cyclone embedded in environmental vertical shear in this paper the authors focus on the initial development of asymmetric vertical motion and horizontal relative flow in a mature tropical cyclone tc embedded in an environmental vertical shear the fully compressible nonhydrostatic tc model was used to perform a series of numerical experiments with a mature tc with different intensities embedded in shear with different magnitudes and different vertical profiles results show that the development of both the wavenumber 1 asymmetric vertical motion and horizontal relative flow for a tc embedded in vertical shear is quite sensitive to both the magnitude and the vertical profile of wind shear as well as the intensity of the tc itself diagnostic analysis based on the quasi balanced potential vorticity inversion indicates that the balanced dynamics can only explain a small portion of the asymmetric vertical motion and relative flow the unbalanced processes contribute predominantly to the developmentoftheasymmetricflowinthesimulations itisshownthattheeyewallofamaturetcplaysarole somewhat like a material cylinder embedded in an environmental flow with vertical shear the interaction between the environmental shear and the eyewall produces vertical gradient of convergence divergence of horizontal wind around the lateral edge of the eyewall this forces much stronger asymmetric vertical motion than the balanced processes do and drives significant horizontal relative divergent flow over the storm core which opposes vertical shear and reduces the vertical tilt of the storm axis in addition the budget analysis for the axisymmetric tangential wind demonstrates that the asymmetric flow plays a dominant role in weakening the storm top down

anatomy of heinrich layer 1 and its role in the last deglaciation this research used data acquired at the xrf core scanner lab at the marum center for marine environmental sciences university of bremen germany this research used samples provided by the international ocean discovery program iodp funding for this research was provided by the uk natural environmental research council nerc to hodell the nerc radiocarbon facility supported two radiocarbon dates and wally broecker generously supported the remainder with funding from the comer family foundation research by rodriguez tovar and dorador was financed by project cgl2015 66835 p b m acknowledges support from the csic ramon y cajal postdoctoral programme ryc 2013 14073 j f e would like to acknowledge funding under erc advanced grant 320750 nanopaleomagnetism

evolution of multiscale vortices in the development of hurricane dolly 2008 abstract as a follow up to a previously published article on the initial development and genesis of hurricane dolly 2008 this study further examines the evolution of and interactions among multiscale vortices ranging from the system scale main vortex l 150 km to the intermediate scale cloud clusters 50 km l 150 km and individual vorticity rich convective cells l 50 km it is found that there are apparent self similarities among these vortices at different scales each of which may undergo several cycles of alternating accumulation and release of convective available potential energy enhanced surface fluxes below individual cyclonic vortices at each scale contribute to the sustainment and reinvigoration of moist convection that in turn contributes to the maintenance and upscale growth of these vortices spectral analysis of horizontal divergence and relative vorticity further suggests that the cloud cluster scale and system scale vortices are predominantly balanced while the individual

characterization of the 2008 kasatochi and okmok eruptions using remote infrasound arrays 1 the 2008 plinian eruptions of kasatochi and okmok volcanoes were recorded by six remote international monitoring system infrasound arrays high amplitude infrasound at these stations combined with remote sensing permits insight into important volcanic source parameters such as origin times durations and source characteristics infrasound from the 7 8 august kasatochi eruption consists of three well defined eruption pulses with the first two steam rich and the last ash rich pulse 2 is the most energetic and impulsive okmok produced over 9 h of continuous infrasound on 12 13 july acoustic propagation modeling for the okmok eruption and first kasatochi pulse predict thermospheric ducting and origin times consistent with seismic and satellite observations however theoretical acoustic origin times of pulses 2 3 are predicted to occur 15 min earlier than the seismic stratospheric ducting for these later pulses provides more consistent origin times although both volcanoes ejected ash into the stratosphere 15 km kasatochi produced higher amplitude infrasound than okmok previous studies have shown sustained infrasound with frequencies 2000 km and does not seem to be appreciably affected by changes in ash content between the eruption pulses

a multiscale numerical study of hurricane andrew 1992 part i explicit simulation and verification abstract in this study the inner core structures of hurricane andrew 1992 are explicitly simulated using an improved version of the penn state ncar nonhydrostatic two way interactive movable triply nested grid mesoscale model mm5 a modified betts miller cumulus parameterization scheme and an explicit microphysics scheme were used simultaneously to simulate the evolution of the larger scale flows over the coarser mesh domains the intense storm itself is explicitly resolved over the finest mesh domain using a grid size of 6 km and an explicit microphysics package containing prognostic equations for cloud water ice rainwater snow and graupel the model is initialized with the national centers for environmental prediction analysis enhanced by a modified moisture field a model generated tropical storm like vortex was also incorporated a 72 h integration was made which covers the stages from the storm s initial deepening to a near category 5 hurricane intensity and the landfall over florida as

high resolution evidence for linkages between nw european ice sheet instability and atlantic meridional overturning circulation published studies show that ice rafted debris ird deposition preceding heinrich h events h1 and h2 in the ne atlantic was derived from the nw european ice sheets nweis possibly offering clues about ice sheet sensitivity and stability and the mechanisms that caused periodic collapse of the laurentide ice sheet lis we present detailed lithological and geochemical records including radiogenic isotope fingerprinting of ird deposits from core md01 2461 proximal to the last glacial british ice sheet bis demonstrating persistent instability of the bis with significant destabilisation occurring 1 5 1 9 kyr prior to both h1 and h2 dated at 16 9 and 24 1 kyr bp respectively in the ne atlantic paired mg ca and 18o data from the surface dwelling globigerina bulloides and subsurface dwelling neogloboquadrina pachyderma sinistral are used to determine late glacial variability of temperature salinity and stratification of the upper water column a picture emerges that the bis was in a continuing state of readjustment and never fully reached steady state increased sea surface temperatures appear to have triggered the episode of nweis instability preceding h1 it seems most probable that the so called precursor events were not linked to the h events however if response to a common thermal forcing is considered an increased response time of the lis up to 2 kyr longer than the nweis may be inferred negative salinity excursions of up to 2 6 indicate significant incursions of melt water associated with peaks in nweis instability decreased surface density led to a more stable stratification of the upper water column and is associated with reduced ventilation of intermediate waters recorded in depleted epibenthic 13c cibicidoides wuellerstorfi we suggest that instability and meltwater forcing of the nweis temporarily weakened atlantic meridional overturning circulation allowing transient advance of southern sourced waters to this site prior to h events 1 and 2

evidence for massive discharges of icebergs into the north atlantic ocean during the last glacial period sediments in the north atlantic ocean contain a series of layers that are rich in ice rafted debris and unusually poor in foraminifera1 here we present evidence that the most recent six of these heinrich layers deposited between 14 000 and 70 000 years ago record marked decreases in sea surface temperature and salinity decreases in the flux of planktonic foraminifera to the sediments and short lived massive discharges of icebergs originating in eastern canada the path of the icebergs clearly marked by the presence of ice rafted detrital carbonate can be traced for more than 3 000 km a remarkable distance attesting to extreme cooling of surface waters and enormous amounts of drifting ice the cause of these extreme events is puzzling they may reflect repeated rapid advances of the laurentide ice sheet perhaps associated with reductions in air temperatures yet temperature records from greenland ice cores appear to exhibit only a weak corresponding signal moreover the 5 10 000 yr intervals between the events are inconsistent with milankovitch orbital periodicities raising the question of what the ultimate cause of the postulated cooling may have been

changes in the magma system during the 2008 eruption of okmok volcano alaska based on gps measurements 1 the 2008 eruption of okmok volcano was preceded by 6 7 months of immediate precursory inflation which followed 3 years of quiescence during which no significant magma was intruded at shallow depth although gps data for the precursory period are too sparse to derive a unique source model the data show that either the center of pressurization shifted from its 1997 2005 location during the immediate precursory time interval or the shape of the pressure source changed from a sphere to something else deflation during the eruption resulted from a decrease in pressure from a source estimated to be at 2 1 km below sea level using a mogi model although source depth estimates from a mogi model can be biased due to elastic layering or heterogeneity the gps data require the 2008 eruptive source to be shallower than the preeruptive inflation source during the eruption the gps time series indicate three distinct pulses of deflation rather than a single smoothly decaying process with the initial pulse being the largest reinflation of the volcano commenced within at most 3 weeks after the end of ash emissions and was evident at a near source site while a far field site continued to deflate for an additional 4 5 weeks the asynchronous transition from deflation to inflation controlled by the distance of the site from the source indicates that paired deep deflation and shallow inflation is required to explain the observations

hydrological impact of heinrich events in the subtropical northeast atlantic reconstructing the impact of heinrich events outside the main belt of ice rafting is crucial to understanding the underlying causes of these abrupt climatic events a high resolution study of a marine sediment core from the iberian margin demonstrates that this midlatitude area was strongly affected both by cooling and advection of low salinity arctic water masses during the last three heinrich events these paleoclimatic time series reveal the internal complexity of each of the last three heinrich events and illustrate the value of parallel studies of the organic and inorganic fractions of the sediments

zooming in on heinrich layers theories explaining the origin of the abrupt massive discharges of ice rafted detritus ird into the glacial north atlantic the heinrich layers hls generally point to the laurentide ice sheet as the sole source of these events until it was found that the irds also originated from icelandic and european ice sheets bond and lotti 1995 snoeckx et al 1999 grousset et al 2000 this apparent contradiction must be reconciled as it raises fundamental questions about the mechanism s of hl origin we have analyzed two 12 cm thick hls in an ultrahigh resolution mode 1 2 century intervals in a mid atlantic ridge piston core the 18o record n pachyderma left coiling reveals strong excursions induced by the melting of the icebergs these excursions are associated with a strong decrease in the amount of planktic foraminafersand with a 3 c cooling of the surface waters counts of coarse detrital grains reveal that ird are deposited according to a typical sequence 1 volcanic glass 2 quartz and feldspars 3 detrital carbonate that implies a chronology in the melting of the differentpan atlantic ice sheets sr and nd isotopic composition confirm that in both heinrich layers h1 and h2 precursor ird came from first europe iceland followed then by laurentide derived ird an internal cyclicity can be identified during h1 and h2 about four to six major abrupt discharges occurred roughly on a century timescale the 13c and 15n records reveal that dominant inputs of continent derived organic matter are associated with ird within the hls hiding the plankton productivity signal