structural analysis and interpretation of the surface deformations of the el asnam earthquake of october 10 1980 the el asnam earthquake of october 10 1980 represents the major seismotectonic event of these last decades in the west mediterranean area it has induced a large amount of surface breaks this earthquake reveals the importance of compressional phenomena that characterize nowadays the tectonics of north africa the tectonic analysis of surface rupture shows the complexity of the deformation mechanism the principal mechanism consists of the activation of a nw se trending thrust fault accompanied with a left lateral motion and with an intense deformation of the northwestern overthrusting block an accurate description of these deformations shows that for a large part the breaks geometry depends closely on the substratum structure finally the analysis of the dislocations on irrigation ducts just above the fault traces allowed a quantitative study of the deformation

surface rupture of the 2005 kashmir pakistan earthquake and its active tectonic implications to provide a detailed record of a relatively rare thrust surface rupture and examine its active tectonic implications we have conducted field mapping of the surface rupture associated with the 2005 m w 7 6 kashmir earthquake despite the difficulty arising from massive earthquake induced landslides along the surface rupture we found that typical pressure ridges and warps extend northwestward for a distance of 70 km with a northeast side up vertical separation of up to 7 m neither the main frontal thrust nor the main boundary thrust is responsible for the earthquake but three active faults or fault segments within the sub himalaya collectively called the balakot bagh fault compose the causative fault although the fault exhibits substantial geomorphic expression of repeated similar surface ruptures only a part of it had been mapped as active before the earthquake the location of the hypocenter suggests that the rupture was initiated at a deep portion of the northern central segment boundary and propagated bilaterally to eventually break all three segments our obtained surface rupture traces and the along strike slip distribution are both in good agreement with results of prompt analyses of satellite images indicating that space geodesy can greatly aid in time consuming field mapping of surface ruptures assuming that the extensive fill terrace in the meizoseismal area was abandoned during 10 30 ka we tentatively estimate the earthquake recurrence interval and shortening rate on the balakot bagh fault to be 1000 3300 yr and 1 4 4 1 mm yr respectively these estimates indicate that the balakot bagh fault is not a main player of himalayan contraction accommodation graphic 1 selected field photographs and arcgis files of the mapped surface rupture traces and measured vertical separations are available in the electronic supplement to this article 1 embed inline graphic 1 gif

dynamical excitation of the tropical pacific ocean and enso variability by little ice age cooling tropical pacific ocean dynamics during the medieval climate anomaly mca and the little ice age lia are poorly characterized due to a lack of evidence from the eastern equatorial pacific we reconstructed sea surface temperature el nino southern oscillation enso activity and the tropical pacific zonal gradient for the past millennium from galapagos ocean sediments we document a mid millennium shift mms in ocean atmosphere circulation around 1500 1650 ce from a state with dampened enso and strong zonal gradient to one with amplified enso and weak gradient the mms coincided with the deepest lia cooling and was probably caused by a southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone the peak of the mca 900 1150 ce was a warm period in the eastern pacific contradicting the paradigm of a persistent la nina pattern

timing of late quaternary glaciations in the himalayas of northern pakistan optically stimulated luminescence dating of late quaternary glaciogenic sediments was undertaken in critical areas of the himalayas of northern pakistan in order to examine the timing of glaciation the dates demonstrate that several glaciations occurred during the last glacial cycle in swat the grabral 2 stade and the kalam i stade were dated at ca 77 ka and ca 38 ka respectively the error on the former date is large and it is conceivable that the moraines may have formed during the early part of oxygen isotope stage 3 rather than during oxygen isotope stage 4 the kalam i stade however clearly represents a glaciation during oxygen isotope stage 3 the oldest moraines and those at the lowest altitude in the indus valley at shatial have an age of ca 60 ka these also relate to a major glacial advance during oxygen isotope stage 3 a younger series of moraines the jalipur tillite and glaciofluvial sands at liachar in the indus valley and moraines at rampur tarshing have ages of ca 27 ka ca 21 23 ka and ca 15 ka respectively these dates show that glaciers also occupied parts of the indus valley during oxygen isotope stage 2 these dates and the morphostratigraphy show that glaciation in the pakistani himalaya was more extensive during the early part of the last glacial cycle and that the local last glacial maximum in pakistan was asynchronous with the maximum extent of northern hemisphere ice sheets copyright 2000 john wiley sons ltd

development of the himalayan frontal thrust zone salt range pakistan the salt range is the active frontal thrust zone of the himalaya in pakistan seismic reflection data show that a 1 km offset of the basement acted as a buttress that caused the central salt range potwar plateau thrust sheet to ramp to the surface exposing mesozoic and paleozoic strata the frontal part of the thrust sheet was folded passively as it overrode the subthrust surface on a ductile layer of eocambrian salt lack of internal deformation of the rear part of the thrust sheet is due to decoupling of sediments from the basement along this salt layer early to middle pliocene 4 5 ma conglomerate deposition in the southern potwar plateau previously interpreted in terms of compressional deformation may instead document uplift related to basement normal faulting stratigraphic evidence paleomagnetic dating of unconformities and sediment accumulation rates suggest that the thrust sheet began to override the basement offset from 2 1 to 1 6 ma cross section balancing demonstrates at least 20 to 23 km of shortening across the ramp the rate of himalayan convergence that can be attributed to underthrusting of indian basement beneath sediments in the pakistan foreland is therefore at least 9 14 mm yr about 20 35 of the total plate convergence rate

systematic underestimation of earthquake magnitudes from large intracontinental reverse faults historical ruptures break across segment boundaries because most large magnitude earthquakes along reverse faults have such irregular and complicated rupture patterns reverse fault segments defined on the basis of geometry alone may not be very useful for estimating sizes of future seismic sources most modern large ruptures of historical earthquakes generated by intracontinental reverse faults have involved geometrically complex rupture patterns ruptures across surficial discontinuities and complexities such as stepovers and cross faults are common specifically segment boundaries defined on the basis of discontinuities in surficial fault traces pronounced changes in the geomorphology along strike or the intersection of active faults commonly have not proven to be major impediments to rupture assuming that the seismic rupture will initiate and terminate at adjacent major geometric irregularities will commonly lead to underestimation of magnitudes of future large earthquakes

the role of the indian summer monsoon and the mid latitude westerlies in himalayan glaciation review and speculative discussion new dates for late quaternary glaciations in the himalayas show that during the last glacial cycle glaciations were not synchronous throughout the region rather in some areas glaciers reached their maxima at the global glacial maximum of c 18 20 ka bp whereas in others glaciers were most extensive at c 60 30 ka bp comparison of these data with palaeoclimatic records from adjacent regions suggest that on millennial timescales himalayan glacier fluctuations are controlled by variations in both the south asian monsoon and the mid latitude westerlies

the armenian earthquake of 1988 december 7 faulting and folding neotectonics and palaeoseismicity summary the spitak earthquake of 1988 december 7 is the first well documented event directly associated with surface breaks in the transcaucasian regions of the ussr the earthquake was located within the ese wnw oriented pambak sevan thrust and fold zone corresponding to the southern front of the lesser caucasus the mechanism of the earthquake is consistent with the nearly ns compressive tectonics due to the active continental collision between the arabian block and the russian platform the rupture is composed by several branches two of which reach the surface the first branch oriented n140 begins near the village of alavar has a length of 11 km and disappears at about 4 km se of spitak it consists of a right lateral en echelon system of strike slip faults with a maximum offset of 50 cm the second branch is the main one and breaks for about 8 km between spitak and gekhasar with a general orientation n120 showing reverse faulting dipping to the north with a right lateral component surface ruptures between gekhasar and spitak show either a narrow band of pressure ridges in alluvial deposits and soil or a fault scarp in the bed rocks when soil is absent maximum displacements observed between spitak and gekhasar attain 160 cm of vertical motion and 90 cm of horizontal dextral offset the displacement also varies within this branch showing finer segmentation few secondary deformations are observed some normal faults near gekhasar correspond to the collapse of the uplifted block an anticline fold oriented parallel to the fault scarp and situated along its northwestern prolongation emphasizes the regional compressive tectonics landslides were activated on its flanks a 200 m long reverse fault break observed along the hinge of a secondary fold suggests the occurrence of a blind thrust at depth and that the hidden branches which continue the main central segment towards the nw are associated to surface folding therefore the total length of the fault and fold zone is about 40 km in agreement with the rupture length and seismic moment obtained on the basis of surface wave modelling well developed uplifted terraces in the northern block and subsiding valleys in the southern block indicate past quaternary activity in the fault region palaeoseismological evidence of ancient earthquakes has been recognized in trenches across the spitak fault one old event occurred between 17 000 years bp and the beginning of the formation of present day soil

the evolution of the equatorial thermocline and the early pliocene el padre mean state the tropical pacific thermocline strength depth and tilt are critical to tropical mean state and variability during the early pliocene 3 5 to 4 5 ma the eastern equatorial pacific eep thermocline was deeper and the cold tongue was warmer than today which resulted in a mean state with a reduced zonal sea surface temperature gradient or el padre however it is unclear whether the deep thermocline was a local feature of the eep or a basin wide condition with global implications our measurements of mg ca of globorotalia tumida in a western equatorial pacific site indicate pliocene subsurface temperatures warmer than today thus el padre included a basin wide thermocline that was relatively warm deep and weakly tilted at 4 ma thermocline steepening was coupled to cooling of the cold tongue since 4 ma the basin wide thermocline cooled shoaled gradually with implications for thermocline feedbacks in tropical dynamics and the interpretation of tex86 derived temperatures

evolution of the eastern tropical pacific through plio pleistocene glaciation a tropical pacific climate state resembling that of a permanent el nino is hypothesized to have ended as a result of a reorganization of the ocean heat budget 3 million years ago a time when large ice sheets appeared in the high latitudes of the northern hemisphere we report a high resolution alkenone reconstruction of conditions in the heart of the eastern equatorial pacific eep cold tongue that reflects the combined influences of changes in the equatorial thermocline the properties of the thermocline s source waters atmospheric greenhouse gas content and orbital variations on sea surface temperature sst and biological productivity over the past 5 million years our data indicate that the intensification of northern hemisphere glaciation 3 million years ago did not interrupt an almost monotonic cooling of the eep during the plio pleistocene sst and productivity in the eastern tropical pacific varied in phase with global ice volume changes at a dominant 41 000 year obliquity frequency throughout this time changes in the southern hemisphere most likely modulated most of the changes observed

simulating pliocene warmth and a permanent el nino like state the role of cloud albedo available evidence suggests that during the early pliocene 4 5 ma the mean east west sea surface temperature sst gradient in the equatorial pacific ocean was significantly smaller than today possibly reaching only 1 2 c the meridional sst gradients were also substantially weaker implying an expanded ocean warm pool in low latitudes subsequent global cooling led to the establishment of the stronger modern temperature gradients given our understanding of the physical processes that maintain the present day cold tongue in the east warm pool in the west and hence sharp temperature contrasts determining the key factors that maintained early pliocene climate still presents a challenge for climate theories and models this study demonstrates how different cloud properties could provide a solution we show that a reduction in the meridional gradient in cloud albedo can sustain reduced meridional and zonal sst gradients an expanded warm pool and warmer thermal stratification in the ocean and weaker hadley and walker circulations in the atmosphere having conducted a range of hypothetical modified cloud albedo experiments we arrive at our pliocene simulation which shows good agreement with proxy sst data from major equatorial and coastal upwelling regions the tropical warm pool middle and high latitudes and available subsurface temperature data as suggested by the observations the simulated pliocene like climate sustains a robust el nino southern oscillation despite the reduced mean east west sst gradient our results demonstrate that cloud albedo changes may be a critical element of pliocene climate and that simulating the meridional sst gradient correctly is central to replicating the geographical patterns of pliocene warmth

incision and differential bedrock uplift along the indus river near nanga parbat pakistan himalaya from 10be and 26al exposure age dating of bedrock straths abstract well preserved river cut bedrock surfaces straths abandoned by the progressive incision of the indus river in northern pakistan were dated using in situ cosmogenic 10 be and 26 al exposure age dating measurements on young and modern straths show no significant ingrowth of 10 be and 26 al implying that strath exposure ages closely approximate their abandonment age strath exposure ages range up to 65 ka and increase with height above the river the straths can be divided into two groups low straths dated at about 7 ka which yield very rapid bedrock incision rates 9 12 m ka and high straths 7 ka in age which yield somewhat slower incision rates 1 6 m ka incision rates for both groups increase by 1 3 m ka downstream toward an active reverse fault the raikot fault that forms the western border of the nanga parbat haramosh massif nphm the downstream increases in incision rates for the low straths mimic downstream increases in the modern gradient suggesting that bedrock incision rates have been proportional to stream power over the last 7 ka gradient increases are probably the result of the creation of knickpoints by bedrock uplift along the raikot fault the longitudinal profile and steep gorge of the indus river in the study area indicate that bedrock incision appears to keep pace with differential vertical motions between the nphm and surrounding regions thus the 1 3 m ka difference in incision rates likely reflects the differential bedrock uplift rate between the nphm and the skardu basin the differential incision rate is consistent with differential exhumation rates obtained from apatite fission track ages assuming geotherms of 80 90 c km in the nphm and 35 c km in the skardu basin this relation suggests that rapid bedrock incision of at least 1 3 m ka has persisted within the nphm for the last 0 5 ma the acceleration of incision rates throughout the study area since 15 ka is likely to be a climatic signal that records an increase in the discharge and or sediment load of the indus river in the study area related to deglaciation of the surrounding terrane

accounting for centennial scale variability when detecting changes in enso a study of the pliocene the el nino southern oscillation enso is the dominant mode of interannual climate variability however climate models are inconsistent in future predictions of enso and long term variations in enso cannot be quantified from the short instrumental records available here we analyse enso behaviour in millennial scale climate simulations of a warm climate of the past the mid pliocene warm period mpwp 3 3 3 0ma we consider centennial scale variability in enso for both the mpwp and the preindustrial and consider which changes between the two climates are detectable above this variability we find that el nino typically occurred 12 less frequently in the mpwp but with a 20 longer duration and with stronger amplitude in precipitation and temperature however low frequency variability in enso meant that pliocene preindustrial changes in el nino temperature amplitude in the nino3 4 region 5 n 5 s 170 w 120 w were not always detectable the pliocene preindustrial el nino temperature signal in the nino4 region 5 n 5 s 160 e 150 w and the el nino precipitation signal are usually larger than centennial scale variations of el nino amplitude and provide consistent indications of enso amplitude change the enhanced mpwp temperature signal in the nino4 region is associated with an increase in central pacific el nino events similar to those observed in recent decades and predicted for the future this study highlights the importance of considering centennial scale variability when comparing enso changes between two climate states if centennial scale variability in enso has not first been established results suggesting changes in enso behaviour may not be robust

changes in sea surface conditions in the equatorial pacific during the middle miocene pliocene as inferred from coccolith geochemistry abstract this study presents a new alkenone derived sea surface temperature sst record and 18onoelaerhabdaceae data of the 2 5 m carbonate fractions from the iodp site u1338 located in the eastern equatorial pacific eep over the miocene pliocene our data and those available from other sites of the same area show the establishment of a cold tongue during the early pliocene 4 4 3 6 ma sst and 18onoelaerhabdaceae time series indicate periods of significant salinity variations comparison with the 18obenthic curve from sediment cores of the equatorial pacific ocean allows us to distinguish between global changes and local surface salinity variations in the eep ice sheet growth and evaporation precipitation are then discussed as possible drivers of such changes along with the role of central american and the indonesian seaway restriction our data suggest a shallowing of the thermocline in the eep between 6 8 and 6 ma and its shoaling between 4 8 and 4 0 ma suggesting the appearance of the cold tongue steph et al 2010 the pliocene climate transition would therefore not be primarily driven by northern hemisphere glaciation

planktic foraminifera shell chemistry response to seawater chemistry pliocene pleistocene seawater mg ca temperature and sea level change abstract foraminifera mg ca paleothermometry forms the basis of a substantial portion of ocean temperature reconstruction over the last 5 ma furthermore coupled mg ca oxygen isotope 18o measurements of benthic foraminifera can constrain eustatic sea level esl independent of paleo shoreline derived approaches however this technique suffers from uncertainty regarding the secular variation of the mg ca seawater ratio mg casw on timescales of millions of years here we present coupled seawater test mg ca temperature laboratory calibrations of globigerinoides ruber in order to test the widely held assumptions that 1 seawater test mg ca co vary linearly and 2 the mg ca temperature sensitivity remains constant with changing mg casw we find a nonlinear mg catest mg casw relationship and a lowering of the mg ca temperature sensitivity at lower than modern mg casw from 9 0 c 1 at mg casw 5 2 mol mol 1 to 7 5 0 9 c 1 at 3 4 mol mol 1 using our calibrations to more accurately calculate the offset between mg ca and biomarker derived paleotemperatures for four sites we derive a pliocene mg casw ratio of 4 3 mol mol 1 this mg casw implies pliocene ocean temperature 0 9 1 9 c higher than previously reported and by extension esl 30 m lower compared to when one assumes that pliocene mg casw is the same as at present correcting existing benthic foraminifera datasets for mg casw indicates that deep water source composition must have changed through time therefore seawater oxygen isotope reconstructions relative to present day cannot be used to directly reconstruct pliocene esl

convergence across the northwest himalaya from gps measurements 1 horizontal velocities of 26 global positioning system gps stations in the northwest himalayan region provide new constraints on the partitioning of india eurasia convergence and elastic strain accumulation about the locked main frontal thrust mft the northwest striking karakorum fault slips at 11 4 mm yr and contributes to east west extension of southern tibet and westward motion of the northwest himalaya towards nanga parbat rather than playing a role in eastward extrusion of tibet crustal shortening across the himalaya occurs within a zone centered about 100 km north of the siwalik foothills and the mft model inversions of the gps data indicate that the mft is locked over a width of 100 km comparison with geologic mft slip rate estimates suggests that this zone is building up a slip deficit at a rate of 14 1 mm yr and will eventually fail in future great earthquakes

permanent el nino like conditions during the pliocene warm period during the warm early pliocene 4 5 to 3 0 million years ago the most recent interval with a climate warmer than today the eastern pacific thermocline was deep and the average west to east sea surface temperature difference across the equatorial pacific was only 1 5 0 9 c much like it is during a modern el nino event thus the modern strong sea surface temperature gradient across the equatorial pacific is not a stable and permanent feature sustained el nino like conditions including relatively weak zonal atmospheric walker circulation could be a consequence of and play an important role in determining global warmth

displacement field and slip distribution of the 2005 kashmir earthquake from sar imagery 1 the 8th october 2005 kashmir earthquake mw 7 6 involved primarily thrust motion on a ne dipping fault sub pixel correlation of envisat sar images gives the location of the 80 km long fault trace within 300 800 m and a 3d surface displacement field with a sub metric accuracy covering the whole epicentral area the slip distribution inverted using elastic dislocation models indicates that slip occurs mainly in the upper 10 km between the cities of muzaffarabad and balakot the rupture reached the surface in several places in the hanging wall horizontal motions show rotation from pure thrust to oblique right lateral motion that are not observed in the footwall a segmentation of the fault near muzaffarabad is also suggested north of the city of balakot slip decreases dramatically but a diffuse zone of mainly vertical surface displacements which could be post seismic exists further north where most of the aftershocks occur aligned along the nw se indus kohistan seismic zone

quaternary landscape evolution in the eastern hindu kush pakistan abstract the eastern hindu kush in northern pakistan is among the most dynamically active tectonic and geomorphic areas in the world during the quaternary valley fill sediments of great thickness have been deposited by glacial fluvial eolian and mass movement processes fluvial incision eroded these sediments and formed terraces their development was controlled by tectonic and climatic factors and therefore they record information about the quaternary landscape evolution and glaciations investigations included the mapping of landforms especially the terraces and sedimentological analyses on valley fill deposits this resulted in a classification with six main types of terraces morainic glaciofluvial fluvial lacustrine mass movement debris and fan terraces tectonic terraces were not recognized but tectonically influenced sediments have been found near the shyok suture zone this classification corresponds with results from the nearby karakoram two major late pleistocene glaciations are recognized during marine isotopic stage 3 mis 3 drosh glacial stage and in the mis 2 early holocene pret glacial stage moraines from the neoglacial shandur glacial stages i and ii and the little ice age barum glacial stage i are located near the contemporary glaciers during deglaciations huge terraces were formed the upper terrace or broz fan formation and the middle terrace or ayun fan formation between the drosh and pret glacial stages and the lower terrace or urghuch fan formation after the pret glacial stage the chronology presented in this paper shows that there was only limited glaciation in the eastern hindu kush during the global last glacial maximum lgm

static stress change from the 8 october 2005 m 7 6 kashmir earthquake 1 we calculated static stress changes from the devastating m 7 6 earthquake that shook kashmir on 8 october 2005 we mapped coulomb stress change on target fault planes oriented by assuming a regional compressional stress regime with greatest principal stress directed orthogonally to the mainshock strike we tested calculation sensitivity by varying assumed stress orientations target fault friction and depth our results showed no impact on the active salt range thrust southwest of the rupture active faults north of the main boundary thrust near peshawar fall in a calculated stress decreased zone as does the raikot fault zone to the northeast we calculated increased stress near the rupture where most aftershocks occurred the greatest increase to seismic hazard is in the indus kohistan seismic zone near the indus river northwest of the rupture termination and southeast of the rupture termination near the kashmir basin

evidence for a great medieval earthquake 1100 a d in the central himalayas nepal the himalayan orogen has produced three thrust earthquakes with moment magnitude m w 7 8 to 8 5 during the past century yet no surface ruptures associated with these great earthquakes have been documented here we present paleoseismic evidence from east central nepal that since 700 a d a single earthquake ruptured the frontal thrust fault at 1100 a d with a surface displacement of 17 5 3 meters and a lateral extent and size that could have exceeded 240 kilometers and m w 8 8 respectively ruptures associated with m w

andean elevation control on tropical pacific climate and enso late cenozoic marine proxy data record a long term transition in the tropical pacific from el nino like conditions with reduced zonal sea surface temperature sst gradient deepened thermocline and reduced upwelling in the eastern equatorial pacific eep to conditions similar to modern this transition coincides with kilometer scale uplift of the central andes to understand whether the rise of the andes contributed to tropical pacific climate evolution we performed experiments with the national center for atmospheric research s community climate system model version 4 to quantify changes in tropical pacific climate and el nino southern oscillation as a function of andean elevations our results demonstrate that uplift increases the equatorial east west sst gradient and walker circulation the rise of the andes from 1 to 3 km increases the sst gradient by 0 8 c and walker circulation by 60 due to strengthened radiative cooling by enhanced low cloud formation in the eep this cooling effect is largest in the southeastern tropical pacific and accounts for about one half of the reconstructed sst cooling along the peru coast the uplift also strengthens upwelling north of the eep consistent with documented increases in biological productivity in this region and decreases the frequency of el nino southern oscillation and the number of strong el nino events simulated responses to andean uplift are generally consistent with the late cenozoic proxy records but too small in magnitude taken together our results indicate that andean uplift was likely one of the multiple factors that contributed to the long term evolution of both the mean climate state and the interannual variability in the tropical pacific

triggered and primary surface ruptures along the camp rock fault eastern california shear zone during the 1992 m w 7 3 landers earthquake in the eastern california shear zone only the shallowest part of the central 8 km of the camp rock fault apparently ruptured triggered by coseismic static stress changes our detailed tectonic geomorphic analysis of a 2 km long stretch of the central camp rock fault reveals that the 1992 triggered surface rupture differs markedly from earlier primary surface ruptures in terms of its vertical slip function we interpret this to be related to a difference in stress directions that induced fault slips the 1992 static stress changes decreased normal stress on the central camp rock fault thereby inducing a normal component of slip whereas a minor reverse slip component is associated with more typical primary seismogenic surface ruptures due to regional north south compression our findings suggest that a detailed geomorphic analysis of a key locality may allow for isolation of triggered surface ruptures from repeated primary surface ruptures identified in paleoseismic studies

core top calibration of mg ca in tropical foraminifera refining paleotemperature estimation 1 optimal use of mg ca as a paleotemperature proxy requires establishing calibrations for different species of foraminifera and quantifying the influence of dissolution to achieve this goal we have measured mg ca and 18o in a series of tropical and subtropical core tops including four depth transects the ceara rise the sierra leone rise and the rio grande plateau in the atlantic and the ontong java plateau in the pacific focusing on spinose mixed layer dwelling species globigerinoides ruber and globigerinoides sacculifer and nonspinose thermocline dwelling neogloboquadrina dutertrei shell mg ca in g sacculifer is 5 15 lower than in g ruber while n dutertrei mg ca is 49 55 lower than in g ruber this statistically significant offset has allowed us to establish different calibrations for each species multilinear regression analysis was used to develop calibration equations that include a correction term for the dissolution effect on mg ca in foraminiferal calcite presented in this paper are two sets of calibrations one set using core depth as a dissolution correction and another using co32 as a dissolution parameter the calibrations suggest that g ruber is the most accurate recorder of surface temperature while g sacculifer records temperatures below the surface at 20 30 m the depth habitat of n dutertrei is more uncertain owing to the wide range in habitat depths depending on hydrographic conditions but on average mg ca and 18o data suggest it is at 50 m of the three species n dutertrei is the most sensitive to dissolution up to 23 decrease in shell mg ca per km while g sacculifer is the most resistant

great earthquakes seismicity gaps and potential for earthquake disaster along the himalaya plate boundary abstract analysis of the space time patterns of seismicity in the himalaya plate boundary has established the existence of three seismic gaps 1 1 the kashmir gap lying west of the 1905 kangra earthquake 2 2 the central gap situated between the 1905 kangra and the 1934 bihar earthquakes 3 3 the assam gap between the 1897 and 1950 assam earthquakes this study has shown that the above great earthquakes were preceded as well as followed by long periods 19 years of decreased levels of seismic activity in the epicentral regions remarkable decrease in the seismicity following the year 1970 has been observed in the western half of the central gap as well as in the assam gap local seismic investigation in the assam gap confirms this feature and the seismicity suggests the existence there of an asperity the local seismic investigations in garhwal himalaya have shown that the small earthquakes are confined to the upper 6 8 km of the crust and may have strike slip motions these earthquakes occur in a region where teleseismically recorded events were few

bioturbational mixing depth and carbon flux at the seafloor radiocarbon dating series bulk sediment and organic carbon flux from various atlantic deep sea regions reveal that the thickness of the bioturbated zone increases by 2 cm if food supply increases by 1 gcm 2yr 1 r 0 8 bulk sediment accumulation rates do not influence the depth of bioturbational mixing under normal pelagic sedimentary conditions we believe that this relationship between nutrient supply and benthic mixing can be used for a quantitative and time variable unmixing procedure to improve high resolution stratigraphic correlations and paleoclimatic interpretations of deep sea records

late quaternary deformation of the salt range of pakistan in the salt range siwalik strata as young as 400 000 yr b p are strongly deformed and overlain with angular unconformity by fanglomerates that are themselves folded and thrust faulted the south flank of the salt range appears in map view as a series of scallops convex to the south produced by a thrust fault bringing the salt range south southeast over sediments of the jhelum river plain the western edge of the range is marked by right slip faults that cut the kalabagh conglomerate which itself rests upon siwaliks with angular unconformity the kalabagh conglomerate is folded and probably cut by diapirs from the salt range formation holocene alluvium appears to be undeformed and strike slip fault lineations are more subdued than those along the historically active chaman fault suggesting that the recurrence interval of faulting may be measured in thousands of years the low historic seismicity of the salt range may be due to such weak coupling between the salt range decollement and crystalline basement that fault displacement is not accompanied by great earthquakes in contrast to the indian foredeep of the himalaya

robust enso across a wide range of climates abstractel nino southern oscillation enso is a pronounced mode of climate variability that originates in the tropical pacific and affects weather patterns worldwide growing evidence suggests that despite extensive changes in tropical climate enso was active over vast geological epochs stretching millions of years from the late cretaceous to the holocene in particular enso persisted during the pliocene when a dramatic reduction occurred in the mean east west temperature gradient in the equatorial pacific the mechanisms for sustained enso in such climates are poorly understood here a comprehensive climate model is used to simulate enso for a broad range of tropical pacific mean climates characterized by different climatological sst gradients it is found that the simulated enso remains surprisingly robust when the east west gradient is reduced from 6 to 1 c the amplitude of enso decreases only by 30 40 its dominant period remains close to 3 4 yr and the spectral peak stays above red noise t

timing and style of late quaternary glaciation in the eastern hindu kush chitral northern pakistan a review and revision of the glacial chronology based on new optically stimulated luminescence dating abstract glacial landforms and sediments provide evidence for two late quaternary major glaciations in the eastern hindu kush new optically stimulated luminescence osl dating was undertaken to define the timing of these glaciations and associated sediment deposition the drosh glacial was defined by osl dating to have occurred during marine isotopic stage 3 producing an extensive valley glaciation that extended to an altitude of 1300 m above sea level asl in the main valley with an equilibrium line altitude ela depression of 1200 m the pret glacial produced a valley glaciation that extended to an altitude of 1670 m asl in the main valley with an ela depression of 1000 m the new osl dating suggests that this glacial stage probably represents several glacial advances that occurred during the latter part of the last glacial moraines representing two minor glacial advances the shandur and barum glacial stages were also recognized near the contemporary glaciers these probably formed during the middle late holocene and little ice age respectively this study and comparisons with adjacent regions suggest that there was limited glaciation during the global last glacial maximum lgm in the hindu kush deglaciation in the mountain ranges of the himalayas and the consequent meltwater discharge into the adjacent seas was negligible immediately after the global lgm and it was therefore of minor importance as a forcing factor for global climate change during the end of the last glacial cycle however our studies show that glaciation and particularly deglaciation is important in controlling the deposition of thick valley fills and the landscape evolution of the high mountain environments

paleoseismic evidence of great surface rupture earthquakes along the indian himalaya 1 toward understanding the relationship between strain accumulation and strain release in the context of the mechanics of the earthquake and mountain building process and quantifying the seismic hazard associated with the globes largest continental thrust system we describe the late quaternary expression and paleoseismic evidence for great surface rupture earthquakes at six sites along the himalayan frontal thrust hft system of india our observations span a distance of 250 km along strike of the hft uplifted and truncated fluvial terrace deposits resulting from the holocene displacements on the hft are preserved along canyons of the ghaggar markanda shajahanpur and kosi rivers dividing the elevation of the bedrock straths at each site by their ages yields estimates of the vertical uplift rate of 4 6 mm yr which when assumed to be the result of slip on an underlying thrust dipping at 20 45 are equivalent to fault slip rates of 6 18 mm yr or shortening rates of 4 16 mm yr trench exposures reveal the hft to fold and break late holocene surface sediments near the cities and villages of chandigarh kala amb rampur ganda lal dhang and ramnagar radiocarbon ages of samples obtained from the displaced sediments indicate surface rupture at each site took place after a d 1200 and before a d 1700 uncertainties attendant to the radiocarbon dating currently do not allow an unambiguous definition of the capping bound on the age of the displacement at each site and hence whether or not the displacements at all sites were contemporaneous trench exposures and vertical separations measured across scarps at rampur ganda lal dhang and ramnagar are interpreted to indicate single event displacements of 11 38 m dividing the observed single event vertical components of displacement by the estimated longer term uplift rates indicates 1330 3250 or more years should be required to accumulate the slip sufficient to produce similar sized displacements surface rupture appears to not have occurred during the historical 1905 kangra mw 7 7 1934 bihar nepal mw 8 1 and 1950 assam mw 8 4 earthquakes which also occurred along the himalayan front yet we observe clear evidence of fault scarps and displacements in young alluvium and progressive and continued offset of fluvial terrace deposits along the hft we suggest on this basis and the size and possible synchroneity of displacements recorded in the trenches that there exists the potential for earthquakes larger than recorded in the historical record and with the potential to rupture lengths of the hft greater than the 250 km we have studied

comparing the impacts of miocene pliocene changes in inter ocean gateways on climate central american seaway bering strait and indonesia changes in inter ocean gateways caused by tectonic processes have been long considered an important factor in climate evolution on geological timescales three major gateway changes that occurred during the late miocene and pliocene epochs are the closing of the central american seaway cas by the uplift of the isthmus of panama the opening of the bering strait and the closing of a deep channel between new guinea and the equator this study compares the global climatic effects of these changes within the same climate model framework we find that the closure of the cas and the opening of the bering strait induce the strongest effects on the atlantic meridional overturning circulation amoc however these effects potentially compensate as the closure of the cas and the opening of the bering strait cause similar amoc changes of around 2 sv strengthening and weakening respectively previous simulations with an open cas consistently simulated colder oceanic conditions in the northern hemisphere contrasting with the evidence for warmer sea surface temperatures 10 3 million years ago here we argue that this cooling is overestimated because a the models typically simulated too strong an amoc change not yet in equilibrium b used a channel too deep and c lacked the compensating effect of the closed bering strait a factor frequently ignored despite its potential influence on northern high latitudes and ice sheet growth further we discuss how these gateway changes affect various climatic variables from surface temperature and precipitation to enso characteristics

a deep eastern equatorial pacific thermocline during the early pliocene warm period abstract during the early pliocene warm period 4 6 4 2 ma in the eastern equatorial pacific upwelling region sea surface temperatures were warm in comparison to modern conditions warm upwelling regions have global effects on the heat budget and atmospheric circulation and are argued to have contributed to pliocene warmth though warm upwelling regions could be explained by weak winds and or a deep thermocline the temporal and spatial evolution of the equatorial thermocline is poorly understood here we reconstruct temporal and spatial changes in subsurface temperature to monitor thermocline depth and show the thermocline was deeper during the early pliocene warm period than it is today we measured subsurface temperature records from eastern equatorial pacific odp transect sites 848 849 and 853 using mg ca records from globorotalia tumida which has a depth habitat of 50 100 m in the early pliocene subsurface temperatures were 4 5 c warmer than modern temperatures indicating the thermocline was relatively deep subsurface temperatures steeply cooled 2 3 c from 4 8 to 4 0 ma and continued to cool an additional 2 3 c from 4 0 ma to present compared to records from other regions the data suggests the pronounced subsurface cooling between 4 8 and 4 0 ma was a regional signal related to restriction of the isthmus of panama while continued cooling from 4 0 ma to present was likely related to global processes that changed global thermocline structure additionally the spatial evolution of the equatorial thermocline along a n s transect across odp sites 853 849 and 848 suggests an intensification of the southeast trades from the pliocene to present large scale atmospheric and oceanographic circulation processes link high and low latitude climate through their influence on equatorial thermocline source water regions and consequently the equatorial thermocline through these low latitude high latitude linkages changes in the equatorial thermocline and thermocline source water played an important role in the transition from the warm pliocene to the cold pleistocene

reduced el nino southern oscillation during the last glacial maximum el nino southern oscillation enso is a major source of global interannual variability but its response to climate change is uncertain paleoclimate records from the last glacial maximum lgm provide insight into enso behavior when global boundary conditions ice sheet extent atmospheric partial pressure of co2 were different from those today in this work we reconstruct lgm temperature variability at equatorial pacific sites using measurements of individual planktonic foraminifera shells a deep equatorial thermocline altered the dynamics in the eastern equatorial cold tongue resulting in reduced enso variability during the lgm compared to the late holocene these results suggest that enso was not tied directly to the east west temperature gradient as previously suggested rather the thermocline of the eastern equatorial pacific played a decisive role in the enso response to lgm climate

warm upwelling regions in the pliocene warm period 1 given the importance of upwelling processes to coastal productivity and regional climate it is critical to study the role of upwelling regions within the context of global climate change we generated sea surface temperature sst records for the last 5 million years in three important upwelling regions the eastern equatorial pacific the california margin and the peru margin prior to 3 0 ma ssts at all sites were significantly warmer than today by 3 9 c indicating that cold upwelling regions that characterize the modern pacific ocean did not exist in the early pliocene warm period 4 6 to 3 1 ma earth s most recent period of sustained global warmth alkenone phosphorus and organic carbon mass accumulation rate records indicate that changes in productivity and sst were decoupled and that upwelling of nutrient enriched water occurred even when ssts were warm during the early pliocene thus the long term trends in sst are likely explained by changes in the temperature of upwelled water rather than in the strength of upwelling favorable winds alone the fact that gradual cooling of upwelling regions began before the onset of significant northern hemisphere glaciation provides further evidence that the growth of ice sheets and their influence on atmospheric winds alone can not explain the cooling of upwelling regions our results suggest that the long term average ssts of upwelling regions are influenced by global changes in the depth and or temperature of the ventilated thermocline

the response of enso flavors to mid holocene climate implications for proxy interpretation the response of el nino southern oscillation enso to mid holocene boundary conditions remains an open question paleoclimate proxies and climate model simulations do not agree in the magnitude of the reduction of enso variability while recent proxy evidence from fossil corals from the central pacific show that the reduction in mid holocene enso variability compared to the end of the twentieth century is not different from the reduction during other holocene time intervals this is inconsistent with the interpretation of lake and ocean sediment records from the eastern pacific which show a significant reduction compared to all other holocene periods in order to reconcile the seemingly conflicting proxy evidence from the eastern and central pacific we hypothesize that enso remained active during the mid holocene however there was a change in the spatial pattern of the sea surface temperature anomalies also known as enso flavors using national center for atmospheric research s community climate system model version 4 forced with mid holocene orbital conditions we find that the frequency of occurrence of the strongest eastern pacific ep events decreases in the mid holocene and their variance is reduced by 30 while the frequency of central pacific cp events slightly increases and their variance does not change we also find a shift in the seasonality of ep events but not in that of cp events lastly mid holocene ep events develop more slowly and decay faster the differential response of enso flavors to mid holocene forcing is remotely forced by the west pacific where a weakening of the trade winds in early boreal spring in the mid holocene initiates an anomalous downwelling annual kelvin wave which reaches the eastern pacific during the enso development season weakens the upper ocean stratification and results in reduced enso upwelling feedback the simulated reduction in the ep flavor versus the cp flavor in the mid holocene is consistent with proxy evidence the teleconnection patterns of the two flavors with temperature precipitation and salinity are distinct and proxies from different regions of the pacific might be recording variability associated with only one of the flavors or some combination of their relative effects

active transfer faulting in the nw sub himalaya india observed by space borne topographic analyses abstract the results of surface morphology and insar analyses carried out along a nne ssw oriented 7 km long transfer fault are presented this structure actively accommodates differential motion across two blocks in the western sub himalayan belt of india segmentation is most pronounced in this sector of the accretionary wedge where minimal climatic variations and a three fold sub division kangra renetrant nahan salient dehradun reentrant are well recognized segmentation is here clearly elucidated by variation in surface topography geologic structure and recorded seismicity over the last few decades however the transition from one segment to another is poorly documented and understood this article primarily documents surface topography and drainage anomalies within the transition zone between the kangra reentrant and the nahan salient through the study of space imageries spanning nearly six decades i e early 1960 s to present geomorphic observations and insar analyses demonstrate that the segmentation is largely governed by lateral variation in geological structure deformation patterns and mechanical stratigraphy and accommodated by transverse movement along the transfer fault it should be noted that transfer faults commonly represent a privileged pathway for the major drainage and therefore surface manifestations are rarely preserved e g yamuna tear ganga tear etc a rare instance of preserved surface topography associated with the recent activity along the sabilpur transfer fault at the transition between the kangra renetrant and the nahan salient is documented here our investigations demonstrate that the sabilpur active fault saf accommodates differential tectonic convergence between the two blocks predominantly by left lateral strike slip kinematics with a component of uplift related to thrusting at hft

revisiting the 1991 uttarkashi and the 1999 chamoli india earthquakes implications of rupture mechanisms in the central himalaya abstract the central himalaya has attracted much attention due to its potential to host a great earthquake an inference based on the history of earthquakes and the geodetic slip estimates the largest and earliest historically documented earthquake in the central himalaya occurred in 1803 m 7 7 near uttarkashi on its western part much before the great event of 1934 mw 8 2 located farther to the east both of which were felt severely in the gangetic plain south of the mountain front the seismotectonic model by seeber and armbruster 1981 predicts that large great earthquakes originate on the main himalayan thrust mht and their ruptures propagate southward to the main frontal thrust mft the rupture of the april 25 2015 mw 7 8 gorkha nepal earthquake however was southeast directed with a southwest directed slip and its mw 7 3 aftershock on may 12 also showed a similar slip direction post 2015 we revisited the 1991 uttarkashi mw 6 7 and the 1999 chamoli mw 6 5 earthquakes in india both of which had originated on the mht flat but show ssw directed slips as reported in this study ruptures of both these earthquakes fell short of reaching the mft just as the historically documented 1803 earthquake but their shaking effects were felt in the southern plains these observations compel us to conclude that the varying rupture modes exhibited by the himalayan earthquakes are controlled primarily by the geometry of the flat ramp flat system

paleoceanographic changes in the eastern equatorial pacific over the last 10 myr to examine the late neogene evolution of tropical pacific oceanography we determined multiple geochemical proxy records for temperature u 37 k and tex86h indices and primary productivity algal biomarkers and diol indices in sediments recovered at odp site 1241 in the east equatorial pacific eep spanning a record of the last 10 myr the tex86h temperatures are lower than those recorded by u 37 k indices exhibiting large fluctuations and suggesting strong warming during the mid pliocene warm period mpwp 4 5 3 2 ma and significantly colder temperature during the late miocene cooling period 7 5 ma and after the middle pliocene warm period mpwp such variations could reflect changes in the eep thermocline temperatures but we suggest that they instead reflect changes in the depth of export production of glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraether lipids in response to changes in the upper ocean structure a combination of temperature records inferred to represent different and likely varying depths in the water column as well as algal biomarker records for export production and ecosystem structure suggest that both productivity and inference upwelling were reduced in the eep during warmer periods such as the mpwp and prior to 7 ma in contrast stronger upwelling conditions and associated increased productivity likely prevailed from 7 to 5 ma and for the past 3 myr both corresponding to globally cool intervals a further increase in eep productivity occurred at ca 1 8 ma coincident with the development of the e w pacific sst gradient these results confirm previous work that protracted el nino like conditions prevailed during warmer intervals of the pliocene before ultimately descending into the current climate state

slip vectors of the surface rupture of the 1999 chi chi earthquake western taiwan about 100 slip vectors were surveyed along the 1999 chi chi earthquake rupture 100 km long western taiwan to understand the coseismic reverse faulting processes the surveyed slip azimuths vary locally over 80 where the rupture is irregular or associated with flexure even where the rupture is straight and has consistent slip azimuths the fault scarp heights horizontal slips and fault dip angles oscillate in a distance of hundreds of meters along the rupture despite these local variations the net slip up to 11 5 m vertical and horizontal slips are significant greater in the north on which maximum shortening 6 m by pure thrust and strike slip 8 m by left lateral fault occur in association with the bend of the rupture the slip azimuths also progressively rotate from north northwest in the north to west southwest in the south these patterns generally agree with those revealed by gps surveys except that the slips by gps in the south move to the west northwest and have values unexpectedly smaller than our measurements our obtained sw directed slips resulted in dominantly right lateral faulting up to 2 4 m where the rupture ends to the southeast this however does not correspond to focal mechanisms of any main shocks or aftershocks

representative styles of deformation along the chelungpu fault from the 1999 chi chi taiwan earthquake geomorphic characteristics and responses of man made structures the chi chi earthquake provides dramatic evidence of the damaging effects of surface ground deformation to buildings lifelines and other facilities much of the building damage is associated with surface faulting and folding along the chelungpu thrust fault our detailed surveying at representative sites along the fault shows that the rupture commonly is a relatively simple 1 to 4 m high scarp with minor hanging wall deformation and localized but severe uplift folding and graben formation along the scarp crest for individual scarps the width of deformation is about 10 to 20 times the net vertical displacement distributed secondary faulting and folding on the hanging wall occurred as much as 350 m from the primary fault near the northern end of the rupture growth of a pre existing 1 km wide late quaternary anticline produced severe ground rupture along multiple thrusts and backthrusts but only minor tilting between fault strands the pattern of building damage coincides with the pattern of geologic deformation with severe damage along large fault scarps and lesser but still significant damage attributable to distributed secondary surface deformation on the hanging wall rupture related building damage on the footwall occurred next to the prerupture fault trace where the hanging wall bulldozed onto the footwall the width of this damage zone is related to the local horizontal shortening along the fault and generally is less than 10 m building zonation along reverse faults should account for this pattern of surface deformation in addition buildings with massive foundations locally influenced the style and location of near surface deformation producing variations in fault strike or accentuated secondary deformation on the hanging wall manuscript received 15 january 2001

slip on an active wedge thrust from geodetic observations of the 8 october 2005 kashmir earthquake by combining global positioning system observations of surface displacements and the locations of aftershocks we infer that the 8 october 2005 kashmir earthquake occurred on multiple fault planes mean slip of 5 1 m occurred on a rupture between bagh and balakot with strike 331 and dip 29 additional slip occurred at depth on a nne dipping fault plane extending wnw from balakot and on an intersecting nearly fiat dislocation at 5 km depth forming an active wedge thrust both the simple fault plane and the blind wedge accommodate convergence between peshawar and leh ladakh accumulating at 7 2 mm yr suggesting a 680 150 yr recurrence interval for kashmir 2005 like events

active fault topography along kangra valley fault in the epicentral zone of 1905 mw7 8 earthquake nw himalaya india the 1905 ce kangra earthquake mw7 8 was one of the most damaging earthquakes in himalaya malik et al 2015 suggested that the kangra valley fault kvf from the epicentral zone was the source of the 1905 kangra earthquake in this article we discuss the active fault topography along kvf marked by distinct right lateral strike slip movement extends for about 60 km between patka village in nw and tanda village in se the prominent offset of streams ranging from 10 m to 340 m have been identified along the fault trace the lateral offset of 10 m may be indicative of displacement during a single event lateral as well as the vertical offset of alluvial fan surfaces and fluvial terraces resulted in formation of the north as well as south facing fault scarps ranging in height from 1 2 to 14 m kvf between two major thrust systems i e main boundary thrust mbt and jawalamukhi thrust jmt suggest that slip partitioning is taking place between the thrust and strike slip faults and is a net result of oblique convergence in nw himalaya the end points of the fault traces exhibit typical y shape because of stepping and branching out of rupture from the main fault considering the pre stress axis from the gps velocity vectors from banerjee and burgman 2002 the branching scenario we obtained for kvf is not consistent with the simulated models by kame et al 2003 and poliakov et al 2002 for other faults this could be attributed to the ongoing oblique convergence in nw himalaya based on the y shape pattern and the upthrown and downthrown sides mapped along the fault trace we suggest two possibilities for surface rupture 1 the fault rupture initiated from pathiyar malan side and propagated unilaterally towards west 2 taking into account the y shape on both the end sections of the fault trace it can be inferred that the rupture during most recent event probably started in the center at miniana and propagates bilaterally in e w

erratum to surficial slip and rupture geometry on the beichuan fault near hongkou during the mw 7 9 wenchuan earthquake china worldwide occurrence and documentation of reverse type ruptures are sparse near hongkou the wenchuan rupture passes through the broad baisha river valley and provides excellent opportunities to trace the surface faulting in fine details for 13 km distance one of the longest continuous sections along the entire rupture in this paper we present the results of our mapping of the surface rupture in this reach based on the discontinuities in slip and geometry the rupture was divided into four sections for convenience from west to east the shenxi gou the miaoba the gaoyuan and the bajiao miao sections respectively the vertical offset is large in the shenxi gou and the bajiao miao sections locally reaching 5 6 m in maxima and generally low in the miaoba section 1 2 m or less in most places the slip gradient for vertical offset is generally 10 3 locally up to 10 1 similar to that in well documented strike slip ruptures near gaoyuan village the surface rupture con sists of two subparallel branches with the northern one exhibiting right lateral slip with minor southeast side up thrusting while the southern one is almost pure south east side up thrusting this pattern mimics the incomplete slip partitioning of oblique thrusting on parallel faults but at a local scale in addition the sense of vertical throw on these two strands is opposite to the general northwest side up thrusting of the wenchuan rupture we propose that it is likely due to the inheritance at shallow depth from the southeast dipping geological faults and that old fault zone structures can have a strong effect on the dynamic rupture by guiding the rupture propagation onto paths of preexisting though locally unfavorable dipping fault planes we also discuss the cross cutting slickenside striations observed near bajiao miao which indicated temporal rake rotation during dynamic rupture and their geological and seismological implications

earthquake recurrence and rupture dynamics of himalayan frontal thrust india the black mango fault is a structural discontinuity that transforms motion between two segments of the active himalayan frontal thrust hft in northwestern india the black mango fault displays evidence of two large surface rupture earthquakes during the past 650 years subsequent to 1294 a d and 1423 a d and possibly another rupture at about 260 a d displacement during the last two earthquakes was at minimum 4 6 meters and 2 4 to 4 0 meters respectively and possibly larger for the 260 a d event abandoned terraces of the adjacent markanda river record uplift due to slip on the underlying hft of 4 8 0 9 millimeters per year or greater since the mid holocene the uplift rate is equivalent to rates of fault slip and crustal shortening of 9 6 3 5 7 0 millimeters per year and 8 4 3 6 7 3 millimeters per year respectively when it is assumed that the hft dips 30 10

changes in equatorial pacific thermocline depth in response to panamanian seaway closure insights from a multi model study article i nfo the early pliocene warm phase was characterized by high sea surface temperatures and a deep thermocline in the eastern equatorial pacific a new hypothesis suggests that the progressive closure of the panamanian seaway contributed substantially to the termination of this zonally symmetric state in the equatorial pacific according to this hypothesis intensification of the atlantic meridional overturning circulation amoc in duced by the closure of the gateway was the principal cause of equatorial pacific thermocline shoaling dur ing the pliocene in this study twelve panama seaway sensitivity experiments from eight ocean climate models of different complexity are analyzed to examine the effect of an open gateway on amoc strength and thermocline depth all models show an eastward panamanian net throughflow leading to a reduction in amoc strength compared to the corresponding closed panama case in those models that do not include a dynamic atmosphere deepening of the equatorial pacific thermocline appears to scale almost linearly with the throughflow induced reduction in amoc strength models with dynamic atmosphere do not follow this simple relation there are indications that in four out of five models equatorial wind stress anomalies amplify the tropical pacific thermocline deepening in summary the models provide strong support for the hypothesized relationship between panama closure and equatorial pacific thermocline shoaling

earthquakes on dipping faults the effects of broken symmetry dynamic simulations of earthquakes on dipping faults show asymmetric near source ground motion caused by the asymmetric geometry of such faults the ground motion from a thrust or reverse fault is larger than that of a normal fault by a factor of 2 or more given identical initial stress magnitudes the motion of the hanging wall is larger than that of the footwall in both thrust reverse and normal earthquakes the asymmetry between normal and thrust reverse faults results from time dependent normal stress caused by the interaction of the earthquake generated stress field with earth s free surface the asymmetry between hanging wall and footwall results from the asymmetric mass and geometry on the two sides of the fault

asynchronous glaciation at nanga parbat northwestern himalaya mountains pakistan we present a new glacial chronology demonstrating asynchroneity between advances of himalayan glaciers and northern hemisphere ice sheet volumes glaciers at nanga parbat expanded during the early to middle holocene ca 9 0 5 5 ka no major advances at nanga parbat during the last global glacial stage of marine oxygen isotope stage 2 mis 2 between 24 and 11 ka were identified preliminary evidence also indicates advances between ca 60 and 30 ka these periods of high ice volume coincide with warm wet regional climates dominated by a strong southwest asian summer monsoon the general lack of deposits dating from mis 2 suggests that nanga parbat was too arid to support expanded ice during this period of low monsoon intensity advances during warm wet periods are possible for the high altitude summer accumulation glaciers typical of the himalayas and explain asynchronous behavior however the holocene advances at nanga parbat appear to have been forced by an abrupt drop in temperature ca 8 4 8 0 ka and an increase in winter precipitation ca 7 5 5 ka these results highlight the overall sensitivity of himalayan glaciation to orbital forcing of monsoon intensity and on millennial or shorter time scales to changes in north atlantic circulation

gps measurements of present day convergence across the nepal himalaya the high elevations of the himalaya and tibet result from the continuing collision between india and asia which started more than 60 million years ago1 4 from geological and seismic studies of the slip rate of faults in asia5 it is believed that approximately one third of the present day convergence rate between india and asia 58 4mmyr 1 is responsible for the shortening uplift and moderate seismicity of the himalaya great earthquakes also occur infrequently in this region releasing in minutes the elastic strain accumulated near the boundary zone over several centuries and accounting for most of the advance of the himalaya over the plains of india the recurrence time for these great earthquakes is determined by the rate of slip of india beneath tibet which has hitherto been estimated indirectly from global plate motions6 from the slip rates of faults in asia7 8 from seismic productivity9 and from the advance of sediments on the northern ganges plain10 here we report geodetic measurements using the global positioning system gps of the rate of contraction across the himalaya which we find to be 17 52 2 mm yr 1 from the form of the deformation field we estimate the rate of slip of india beneath tibet to be 20 5 2 mmyr 1 strain sufficient to drive one or more great himalayan earthquakes with slip similar to that accompanying the magnitude 8 1 bihar nepal 1934 earthquake may currently be available in western nepal

precarious rock and overturned transformer evidence for ground shaking in the ms 7 7 kern county earthquake an analog for disastrous shaking from a major thrust fault in the los angeles basin precariously balanced rocks and overturned transformers in the vicinity of the white wolf fault provide constraints on ground motion during the 1952 m s 7 7 kern county earthquake a possible analog for an anticipated large earthquake in the los angeles basin shaw et al 2002 dolan et al 2003 on the northeast part of the fault preliminary estimates of ground motion on the footwall give peak accelerations considerably lower than predicted by standard regression curves on the other hand on the hanging wall there is evidence of intense ground shattering and lack of precarious rocks consistent with the intense hanging wall accelerations suggested by foam rubber modeling numerical modeling and observations from previous thrust fault earthquakes there is clear evidence of the effects of rupture directivity in ground motions on the hanging wall side of the fault from both precarious rocks and numerical simulations on the southwest part of the fault which is covered by sediments the thrust fault did not reach the surface blind thrust overturned and damaged transformers indicate significant transfer of energy from the hanging wall to the footwall an effect that may not be as effective when the rupture reaches the surface is not blind transformers near the up dip projection of the fault tip have been damaged or overturned on both the hanging wall and footwall sides of the fault the transfer of energy is confirmed in a numerical lattice model and could play an important role in a similar situation in los angeles we suggest that the results of this study can provide important information for estimating the effects of a large thrust fault rupture in the los angeles basin specially given the fact that there is so little instrumental data from large thrust fault earthquakes

the 2005 mw 7 6 kashmir earthquake sub pixel correlation of aster images and seismic waveforms analysis we analyze the m w 7 6 kashmir earthquake of october 8 2005 using sub pixel correlation of aster images to measure ground deformation and modeling seismic waveforms the surface rupture is continuous over a distance of 75 km and cuts across the hazara syntaxis reactivating the tanda and the muzaffarabad faults north of muzaffarabad the surface rupture coincides approximately with the mbt on the southwestern flank of the syntaxis although the two faults have opposite dip angles the rupture terminates abruptly at the hairpin turn of the mbt showing a strong structural control the fault offset is 4 m on average and peaks to 7 m northwest of muzaffarabad the rupture lasted about 25 s and propagated updip and bi laterally 2 km s with a rise time of 2 5 s the shallowness and compactness of the rupture both in time and space provide an explanation for the intensity of destructions this kind of analysis could be achieved as soon as a post earthquake image is available and would provide key information for early assessment of damages the study sheds some light on seismic hazard in the himalaya and raises concern regarding the possibility of a repetition of the 1555 event which presumably ruptured the himalayan front south of the kashmir basin and may have reached a magnitude m w 8

fault analysis and paleostress evolution in large strain regions methodological and geological discussion of the southeastern himalayan fold and thrust belt in pakistan abstract we document the structure and kinematics of the southeastern part of the fold and thrust belt of the pakistani himalaya field analysis documents the importance of strike slip faulting associated with folding accordingly a transpression regime is inferred to be responsible for variable amounts of shortening from fault block to fault block the analysis of fault populations that affect the mesozoic to early miocene sediments allows distinguishing two paleostress tensor directions a dominant nw se compression and a minor e w compression are compatible with buckling around the n s axis of the near by hazara kashmir syntaxis from the lack of both systematic overprinting relationships and spatial trend the two tensors were obtained at different locations we conclude that in each location any of these two shortening directions can dominate the distribution of the paleostress tensors substantiates a transpressional regime due to far field himalayan compression and a lateral escape component of the allochthonous fold and thrust belt away from the growing hazara kashmir anticline

early pliocene increase in thermohaline overturning a precondition for the development of the modern equatorial pacific cold tongue unraveling the processes responsible for earth s climate transition from an el nino like state during the warm early pliocene into a modern like la nina dominated state currently challenges the scientific community recently the pliocene climate switch has been linked to oceanic thermocline shoaling at 3 million years ago along with earth s final transition into a bipolar icehouse world here we present pliocene proxy data and climate model results which suggest an earlier timing of the pliocene climate switch and a different chain of forcing mechanisms we show that the increase in north atlantic meridional overturning circulation between 4 8 and 4 0 million years ago initiated by the progressive closure of the central american seaway triggered overall shoaling of the tropical thermocline this preconditioned the turnaround from a warm eastern equatorial pacific to the modern equatorial cold tongue state about 1 million years earlier than previously assumed since 3 6 3 5 million years ago the intensification of northern hemisphere glaciation resulted in a strengthening of the trade winds thereby amplifying upwelling and biogenic productivity at low latitudes

statistical constraints on el nino southern oscillation reconstructions using individual foraminifera a sensitivity analysis recent investigations of submillennial paleoceanographic variability have attempted to resolve high frequency climate signals such as the el nino southern oscillation enso using the population statistics of individual planktic foraminiferal 18o analyses this approach is complicated by the relatively short lifespan of individual foraminifers 2 4 weeks compared to the time represented by a typical marine sediment sample decades to millennia here we investigate the uncertainty associated with individual foraminiferal analyses ifa through simulations on forward modeled 18ocarbonate first focusing on the nino3 4 region of the tropical pacific ocean a bootstrap monte carlo algorithm is developed to constrain the uncertainty on ifa statistics subsequently to test the sensitivity of ifa to changes in seasonal cycle amplitude enso amplitude and enso frequency synthetic time series of 18ocarbonate with differing variability are constructed and tested with our algorithm the probabilities of the ifa technique in detecting changes in enso amplitude and seasonal cycle amplitude or a combination of both for the surface ocean and thermocline at different locations in the tropical pacific are quantified we find that the uncertainty in the standard deviation is smaller than the range that the ifa signal is insensitive to enso frequency and at certain locations the seasonal cycle may dominate enso ifa sensitivity towards enso is highest at the central equatorial pacific surface ocean and the eastern equatorial pacific eep thermocline whereas sensitivity towards the seasonal cycle is highest at the eep surface ocean our results suggest that rigorous uncertainty quantification should become standard practice for accurately interpreting ifa data

revel a model for recent plate velocities from space geodesy 1 we present a new global model for recent plate velocities revel describing the relative velocities of 19 plates and continental blocks the model is derived from publicly available space geodetic primarily gps data for the period 1993 2000 we include an independent and rigorous estimate for gps velocity uncertainties to assess plate rigidity and propagate these uncertainties to the velocity estimates the velocity fields for north america eurasia and antarctica clearly show the effects of glacial isostatic adjustment and australia appears to depart from rigid plate behavior in a manner consistent with the mapped intraplate stress field two thirds of tested plate pairs agree with the nuvel 1a geologic 3 myr average velocities within uncertainties three plate pairs caribbean north america caribbean south america and north america pacific exhibit significant differences between the geodetic and geologic model that may reflect systematic errors in nuvel 1a due to the use of seafloor magnetic rate data that do not reflect the full plate rate because of tectonic complexities most other differences probably reflect real velocity changes over the last few million years several plate pairs arabia eurasia arabia nubia eurasia india move more slowly than the 3 myr nuvel 1a average perhaps reflecting long term deceleration associated with continental collision several other plate pairs including nazca pacific nazca south america and nubia south america are experiencing slowing that began 25 ma the beginning of the current phase of andean crustal shortening

himalayan seismic hazard the devastating earthquake in bhuj on 26 january 2001 highlighted the high earthquake risk in the indian region of gujarat in their perspective bilham et al warn that major earthquakes may be expected in another part of india the himalayan arc an analysis of historic earthquakes suggests that several major earthquakes are overdue in this region but that recent low activity has focused attention away from the himalayan arc projections from earlier earthquakes suggest that just one of the possibly overdue himalayan earthquakes may lead to 200 000 predictable fatalities

characteristics of near fault ground motions by dynamic thrust faulting two dimensional lattice particle approaches two dimensional lattice particle models have been used to simulate dynamic thrust faulting and its effects on near fault ground motions the lattice particle modeling approach has been demonstrated as an efficient way to model the dynamic rupture phenomena observed from a foam rubber experiment on dipping faults we constructed a 42 dipping fault model to simulate near fault ground motions under different site conditions in which different combinations of fault geometry blind fault underlying a sedimentary layer and outcropping thrust models and near surface sedimentary layers were investigated in particular dynamic behaviors between a blind fault with an overlying sedimentary layer and an outcropping fault without a sedimentary layer were compared in this simulation a dynamic slip pulse accompanied by fault separation was initiated at the deepest part of the fault and propagated updip along the fault under a subshear rupture velocity a strong asymmetrical ground motion pattern on the hanging wall and footwall caused by near source rupture effects was observed rupture directivity played an important role in determining the size and distribution of peak ground velocities and accelerations on the hanging wall and footwall in the case of an outcropping thrust without a sedimentary layer the hanging wall underwent a stronger ground motion caused by the near surface breakout phase as the rupture reached the free surface in the case of a blind thrust overlying a sedimentary layer the peak ground particle velocity and acceleration could be much larger on the footwall this is a result of the amplification effect of trapped long period seismic energy in the sedimentary layer the seismic energy emitted from the rupture stopping phase was incident to the sedimentary layer and radiated under the rupture directivity effect the radiated long period seismic energy was trapped in the sedimentary layer propagating away from the fault trace toward the footwall side the numerical results show that for an initial slip of 5 to 5 5 m the horizontal peak ground velocity and acceleration could reach about 1 5 m sec and 2 g respectively on the footwall for a blind thrust with a sedimentary layer with the same initial slip level the peak ground velocity and acceleration were about 1 1 m sec and 1 5 g respectively on the hanging wall for an outcropping thrust without a sedimentary layer these results can partially explain the field observations of precarious rock distributions and overturned transformers in the vicinity of the white wolf fault during the 1952 m s 7 6 kern county earthquake furthermore the current simulation can be used for near fault strong motion prediction for large thrust faults in the los angeles basin or similar tectonic settings around the world