earthquake recurrence on the southern san andreas modulated by fault normal stress earthquake recurrence data from the pallett creek and wrightwood paleoseismic sites on the san andreas fault appear to show temporal variations in repeat interval these sites are located near cajon pass southern california where detailed mapping has revealed geomorphically and structurally expressed domains of alternating extension and contraction respectively associated with releasing and restraining bends of the san andreas fault we investigate the interaction between strike slip faults and auxiliary reverse and normal faults as a physical mechanism capable of producing such variations under the assumption that fault strength is a function of fault normal stress e g byerlee s law failure of an auxiliary fault modifies the strength of the strike slip fault thereby modulating the recurrence interval for earthquakes in our finite element model auxiliary faults are driven by stress accumulation near restraining and releasing bends of a strike slip fault earthquakes occur when fault strength is exceeded and are incorporated as a stress drop which is dependent on fault normal stress the model is driven by a velocity boundary condition over many earthquake cycles resulting synthetic strike slip earthquake recurrence data display temporal variations similar to observed paleoseismic data within time windows surrounding auxiliary fault failures although observed recurrence data for the two paleoseismic sites are too short to be definitive about the temporal variations or the physical mechanism responsible for it our simple model supports the idea that interaction between a strike slip fault and auxiliary reverse or normal faults can modulate the recurrence interval of events on the strike slip fault possibly producing short term variations in earthquake recurrence interval

serial ruptures of the san andreas fault carrizo plain california revealed by three dimensional excavations 1 it is poorly known if fault slip repeats regularly through many earthquake cycles well documented measurements of successive slips rarely span more than three earthquake cycles in this paper we present evidence of six sequential offsets across the san andreas fault at a site in the carrizo plain using stream channels as piercing lines we opened a latticework of trenches across the offset channels on both sides of the fault to expose their subsurface stratigraphy we can correlate the channels across the fault on the basis of their elevations shapes stratigraphy and ages the three dimensional excavations allow us to locate accurately the offset channel pairs and to determine the amounts of motion for each pair we find that the dextral slips associated with the six events in the last millennium are from oldest to youngest 5 4 0 6 8 0 0 5 1 4 0 5 5 2 0 6 7 6 0 4 and 7 9 0 1 m in this series three and possibly four of the six offset values are between 7 and 8 m the common occurrence of 7 8 m offsets suggests remarkably regular but not strictly uniform slip behavior age constraints for these events at our site combined with previous paleoseismic investigations within a few kilometers allow a construction of offset history and a preliminary evaluation of slip and time predictable models the average slip rate over the span of the past five events between a d 1210 and a d 1857 has been 34 mm yr not resolvably different from the previously determined late holocene slip rate and the modern geodetic strain accumulation rate we find that the slip predictable model is a better fit than the time predictable model in general earthquake slip is positively correlated with the time interval preceding the event smaller offsets coincide with shorter prior intervals and larger offset with longer prior intervals

constraints on the dynamics of mantle plumes from uplift of the hawaiian islands the v0 2 mm yr uplift of hawaiian islands lanai and molokai and hawaiian swell topography pose important constraints on the structure and dynamics of mantle plumes we have formulated 3 d models of mantle convection to investigate the effects of plume plate interactions on surface vertical motions and swell topography in our models the controlling parameters are plume radius excess plume temperature and upper mantle viscosity we have found that swell height and swell width constraints limit the radius of the hawaiian plume to be smaller than 70 km the additional constraint from the uplift at lanai requires excess plume temperature to be greater than 400 k if excess plume temperature is 400 k models with plume radius between 50 and 70 km and upper mantle viscosity between 10 20 and 3u10 20 pa s satisfy all the constraints our results indicate that mantle plume in the upper mantle may be significantly hotter than previously suggested this has important implications for mantle convection and mantle melting in addition to constraining plume dynamics our models also provide a mechanism to produce the observed uplift at lanai and molokai that has never been satisfactorily explained before 9 2002 elsevier science b v all rights reserved

postseismic fault healing on the rupture zone of the 1999 m 7 1 hector mine california earthquake we probed the rupture zone of the october 1999 m 7 1 hector mine earthquake using repeated near surface explosions in october 2000 and november 2001 three dense linear seismic arrays were deployed across the north and south lavic lake faults llfs that broke to the surface in the mainshock and across the bullion fault bf that experienced minor slip in that event two explosions each year were detonated in the rupture zone one on the middle and one on the south llf we found that p and s velocities of fault zone rocks increased by 0 7 1 4 and 0 5 1 0 between 2000 and 2001 respectively in contrast the velocities for p and s waves in surrounding rocks increased much less this trend indicates that the hector mine rupture zone has been healing by strengthening after the main shock most likely due to the closure of cracks that opened during the 1999 earth quake the observed fault zone strength recovery is consistent with an apparent crack density decrease of 1 5 within the rupture zone the ratio of travel time decrease for p to s waves was 0 72 consistent with partially fluid filled cracks near the fault zone this restrengthening is similar to that observed after the 1992 m 7 4 landers earthquake which occurred 25 km to the west li and vidale 2001 we also find that the velocity increase with time varies from one fault segment to another at the hector mine rupture zone we see greater changes on the llfs than on the bf and the greatest change is on the middle llf at shallow depth we tentatively conclude that greater damage was inflicted and thus greater healing is observed in regions with larger slip in the mainshock

changes in static stress on southern california faults after the 1992 landers earthquake the magnitude 7 5 landers earthquake of 28 june 1992 was the largest earthquake to strike california in 40 years the slip that occurs in such an earthquake would be expected to induce large changes in the static stress on neighbouring faults these changes in stress should in turn affect the likelihood of future earthquakes stress changes that load faults towards failure have been cited as the cause of small1 5 moderate6 and large7 earthquakes conversely those that relax neighbouring faults have been related to a decrease in seismicity5 here we use an elastic half space model8 to estimate the stress changes produced by the landers earthquake on selected southern california faults including the san andreas we find that the estimated stress changes are consistent with the triggering of four out of the five aftershocks with magnitude greater than 4 5 and that the largest changes 1 10 bar occurring on part of the san bernardino segment of the san andreas fault may have decreased the time to the next magnitude 8 earthquake by about 14 years

active faulting near the cajon pass well southern california implications for the stress orientation near the san andreas fault the dosecc cajon pass well is located 4 km ne of the san andreas fault in a region that includes a diversity of secondary structures active faults close to the well are subparallel to the right lateral san andreas fault but exhibit left lateral and normal slip the stress orientation measured in the well is not consistent with right lateral slip on the san andreas fault or the stresses inferred from focal mechanisms of earthquakes within 10 km of the fault but may drive the e striking slightly normal left lateral cleghorn fault the closest active fault to the well if the in situ stress is everywhere consistent with the highly variable styles of active secondary faulting like the cleghorn the orientation of stresses along the san andreas fault may be quite variable

geological evidence for neotectonic activity during deglaciation of the southern sperrin mountains northern ireland in the southern sperrin mountains northern ireland stacked glacigenic sequences that accumulated during deglaciation ca 17000 13000 yr bp overlie a basement of jointed and mascerated bedrock the glacigenic sequences comprise interbedded glaciotectonic shears diamictic breccias and rock rafts at one site a normal fault with a metre scale vertical displacement cuts through part of the sequence and is overlain by a glacial diamict sediments at an adjacent site show that faulting and associated hydrothermal activity was related to neotectonic reactivation of pre existing caledonian lineaments caused by ice unloading from stratigraphical and directional evidence fault reactivation occurred early in the deglaciation after north central ireland ice had retreated southwards into lowland areas but before sperrin mountain ice readvanced from the north this relationship provides evidence for the relative timing of neotectonic activity in northern ireland and demonstrates the effects of glacio isostatic unloading near ice sheet centres copyright 1999 john wiley sons ltd

repeat bathymetric surveys at 1 metre resolution of lava flows erupted at axial seamount in april 2011 at frequently active submarine volcanoes it is difficult to distinguish between new and pre existing lava flows a combination of high resolution bathymetric surveys taken before and after an eruption at axial seamount in 2011 allows detailed mapping of the 2011 lava flows and highlights the tendency of new flows to mimic older ones

the mission link between the hayward and calaveras faults the left stepover between the calaveras and hayward faults gives rise to compressive strain that is accommodated by vertical deformation producing the highest hills bordering the east side of san francisco bay monument peak to mission peak the projection of the active trace of the hayward fault is separated 3 5 km from the junction of the northern and southern segments of the calaveras fault at calaveras reservoir for pure strike slip on the hayward and calaveras faults the stepover region is compressed in area at a rate given by the separation times the long term slip rate of 9 mm yr on the hayward fault assuming a seismogenic depth of 10 km the horizontal compression accumulated over 150 years is equivalent to a dip slip seismic moment of 2 8 1018 n m this moment if released in a single event would generate an earthquake of magnitude 6 3 due to dip slip alone dip slip may occur on buried faults throughout the stepover region the base of the southwest face of monument peak suggests a buried thrust or reverse fault dipping northeast the prominent scarp on mission peak has the same strike and sense of slip current microearthquakes between the calaveras and hayward faults align parallel to the mission fault but show only horizontal slip on a vertical fault plane a dipping fault is needed to satisfy the geometric constraint of the convergence therefore the mission fault zone must consist of two or more fault surfaces inclined at different dip angles as is observed in the san andreas fault zone in the loma prieta area horizontal slip is building up stress on the inclined fault which is currently locked growing compressive stress will increasingly impede horizontal slip until a thrust or reverse slip event occurs allowing then more horizontal slip to be transferred from the calaveras to the hayward fault the dip slip fault might be the unstable element governing slip in the larger system

interaction of the san andreas fault creeping segment with adjacent great rupture zones and earthquake recurrence at parkfield three dimensional finite element calculations are employed to study interactions in space and time between the creeping segment of the san andreas fault in central california and the adjacent currently locked zones of the 1857 and 1906 great earthquakes vertically the model consists of an elastic upper crust over a maxwell viscoelastic region representing the entire lower crust or a narrower horizontal detachment layer and a stiffer and more viscous upper mantle the crust has a single vertical fault extending to the top of the mantle at 25 km depth in zones along strike corresponding to the 1857 and 1906 events the top 12 5 km of the fault is locked against slip except in great earthquakes below the locked zones and everywhere along the creeping region between them the fault is freely slipping the model parameters are compatible with seismological and geological observations and with a ratio of maxwell relaxation time to the relaxing layer thickness in the range 1 to 2 yr km as established by li and rice 1987 and fares and rice 1988 based on fits to geodetic data along the san andreas fault an imposed constant far field shear motion and periodic 1857 and 1906 type earthquakes generate slip rates along the creeping fault segment that evolve in time throughout the entire earthquake cycle shortly after an adjacent great earthquake slip rates in the creeping zone are higher than the far field velocity while later in the cycle they are lower hence time dependency should be accounted for when measurements of fault slip are used to estimate the plate motion if parkfield earthquakes are a response to a time dependent loading of the type simulated here their recurrence interval would tend to lengthen with time since the 1857 event thus the hypothesis of characteristic periodic earthquakes at parkfield may not provide the best estimate of the occurrence time of the next event using for example the statistics of past events and assuming that parkfield earthquakes are a response to a slip deficit near middle mountain and that the elastic crustal layer is 17 5 km thick we find that the next event is predicted for about 1992 9 years if the lower crust is a 7 5 km thick layer having a material relaxation time of 15 years and 1995 11 years if the 7 5 km thick lower crust is characterized by a relaxation time of 7 5 years these values may be compared to the 1988 7 years estimate based on periodicity in time the modeling results also indicate that the interaction between the 1857 and 1906 rupture zones is small

1998 eruption of axial volcano multibeam anomalies and sea floor observations lava flows erupted during the january february 1998 seismic swarm at axial volcano on the juan de fuca ridge have been identified by differencing of pre and post event multibeam bathymetric surveys and by seafloor observations a sheet flow more than 3 km in length and 500 800 m wide erupted from the uppermost south rift is the site of a robust hydrothermal system 1998 lavas occur over about 9 km of the upper south rift zone or about 20 of the along axis length of the seismicity event 50 km the estimated volume of lava erupted is 18 76 106 m for the extrusion and 100 106 m for the intrusion the total volume is consistent with the volume from modeling of seafloor strain measurements recorded during the event

healing of the shallow fault zone from 1994 1998 after the 1992 m7 5 landers california earthquake we conducted seismic surveys at the johnson valley fault in 1994 1996 and 1998 we found that the shear velocity of the fault zone rock increased by 1 2 between 1994 and 1996 and increased further by 0 7 between 1996 and 1998 this trend indicates the landers rupture zone has been healing by strengthening after the mainshock most likely due to the closure of cracks that opened during the 1992 earthquake the observed fault zone strength recovery is consistent with a decrease of 0 03 in the apparent crack density within the fault zone the ratio of decrease in travel time for p to s waves changed from 0 75 in the earlier two years to 0 65 in the later two years between 1994 and 1998 suggesting that cracks near the fault zone are partially fluid filled and have became more fluid saturated with time

new insights into mid ocean ridge volcanic processes from the 2005 2006 eruption of the east pacific rise 9 46 n 9 56 n digital seafloor imagery collected on 37 camera tows and alvin dives in which we identify 186 contacts between new and old lava are used to create the most detailed map of a mid ocean ridge mor eruption to date lava flows erupted in 2005 2006 at the east pacific rise epr covered an area of 14 6 km2 along 18 km of the epr crest between 9 46 and 9 56 n the 2005 2006 lava is characterized by inflated lobate and sheet morphologies in the flow interiors and pillow forms at terminal flow fronts numerous lava channels 10 50 m wide and 1 5 m deep trending approximately east west served as distributory pathways eruptions were sourced from fissures within the epr axial summit trough as well as fissures located on an off axis fissure mound 600 m east of the epr axis between 9 52 and 9 56 n portions of the lava flow reached as far as 2 km east of the axis near 9 51 2 n using a conservative estimate of 1 5 m for the average flow thickness implies that the 2005 2006 eruptions produced 22 106 m3 of lava 4 5 times larger than estimated volumes of 1991 1992 epr lava flows estimated lava volume for the 2005 2006 eruptions represents 15 of the magma available in the axial magma chamber

dynamics of fault interaction parallel strike slip faults we use a two dimensional finite difference computer program to study the effect of fault steps on dynamic ruptures our results indicate that a strike slip earthquake is unlikely to jump a fault step wider than 5 km in correlation with field observations of moderate to great sized earthquakes we also find that dynamically propagating ruptures can jump both compressional and dilational fault steps although wider dilational fault steps can be jumped dilational steps tend to delay the rupture for a longer time than compressional steps do this delay leads to a slower apparent rupture velocity in the vicinity of dilational steps these dry cases assumed hydrostatic or greater pore pressures but did not include the effects of changing pore pressures in an additional study we simulated the dynamic effects of a fault rupture on undrained pore fluids to test sibson s 1985 1986 suggestion that wet dilational steps are a barrier to rupture propagation our numerical results validate sibson s hypothesis by demonstrating that the effect of the rupture on the undrained pore fluids is to inhibit the rupture from jumping dilational stepovers the basis of our result differs from sibson s hypothesis in that our model is purely elastic and does not necessitate the opening of extension fractures between the fault segments

stress near geometrically complex strike slip faults application to the san andreas fault at cajon pass southern california slip on an undulatory strike slip fault induces predictable residual stresses in the adjacent crust elastic analytic and finite element models are developed to quantify these stresses for arbitrary fault geometries across fault parallel planes domains of reverse normal right lateral and left lateral residual stresses are induced near the bends in the fault these residual stresses increase in magnitude from one slip event to the next typically reaching failure level after several events a two dimensional analytic elastic plate model for slip on a sinusoidal fault provides general results on the scales and patterns of slip induced stresses and fourier synthesis allows for the solution with arbitrary but small fault distortions maximum fault normal residual stress is proportional to the square of the wavenumber of the sinusoidal trace and decays exponentially away from the fault reduced to 2 e times the maximum value at a distance equal to 1 wavenumber this fault parallel residual shear stress oscillates between dextral and sinistral along the fault with maximum magnitude adjacent to the maximum excursions in the fault trace fault parallel residual shear stress is maximum at a distance from the fault of 1 wavenumber where its magnitude is 1 e times the maximum normal stress on the fault two and three dimensional finite element analyses extend the analytic model they account for depth decaying fault perturbation amplitude and slip deficit and are valid for large fault undulations application of the model to the san andreas fault in the cajon pass region produces the complex distribution of fault parallel normal reverse right lateral and left lateral structures recognized near the main trace left lateral stresses on planes subparallel to the san andreas fault at the cajon pass well are predicted by this model

reply to what do the cajon pass stress measurements say about stress on the san andreas fault comment on in situ stress measurements to 3 5 km depth in the cajon pass scientific research borehole implications for the mechanics of crustal faulting by mark d zoback and john h healy

direct observation of a submarine volcanic eruption from a sea floor instrument caught in a lava flow our understanding of submarine volcanic eruptions has improved substantially in the past decade owing to the recent ability to remotely detect such events and to then respond rapidly with synoptic surveys and sampling at the eruption site but these data are necessarily limited to observations after the event in contrast the 1998 eruption of axial volcano on the juan de fuca ridge was monitored by in situ sea floor instruments one of these instruments which measured bottom pressure as a proxy for vertical deformation of the sea floor was overrun and entrapped by the 1998 lava flow the instrument survived being insulated from the molten lava by the solidified crust and was later recovered the data serendipitously recorded by this instrument reveal the duration character and effusion rate of a sheet flow eruption on a mid ocean ridge and document over three metres of lava flow inflation and subsequent drain back after the brief two hour eruption the instrument also measured gradual subsidence of 1 4 metres over the next several days reflecting deflation of the entire volcano summit as magma moved into the adjacent rift zone these findings are consistent with our understanding of submarine lava effusion as previously inferred from seafloor observations terrestrial analogues and laboratory simulations

what do the cajon pass stress measurements say about stress on the san andreas fault comment on in situ stress measurements to 3 5 km depth in the cajon pass scientific research borehole implications for the mechanics of crustal faulting by mark d zoback and john h healy

evidence for deformation associated with the 1998 eruption of axial volcano juan de fuca ridge from acoustic extensometer measurements acoustic extensometer instruments capable of making precise daily measurements of horizontal distance were deployed across the north rift zone of axial volcano in june 1996 and were in place when a submarine eruption began on axial s south rift zone in january 1998 the instruments recorded a gradual 9 cm extension over a 405 m baseline leading up to the eruption and then an abrupt 4 cm contraction at the time of the eruption an elastic point source deformation model shows that deflation of axial s summit can explain both the 4 cm distance decrease at the extensometer array and a 3 2 m subsidence measured by another instrument in the caldera if the pressure source is located at a depth of 3 8 km below the center of the caldera the 9 cm distance increase may represent pre eruption spreading across the rift zone

a more precise chronology of earthquakes produced by the san andreas fault in southern california improved methods of radiocarbon analysis have enabled us to date more precisely the earthquake ruptures of the san andreas fault that are recorded in the sediments at pallett creek previous dates of these events had 95 confidence errors of 50 100 calendar years new error limits are less than 23 calendar years for all but two of the dated events this greater precision is due to larger sample size longer counting time lower background noise levels more precise conversion of radiocarbon ages to calendric dates and better stratigraphic constraints and statistical techniques the new date ranges with one exception fall within the broader ranges estimated previously but our estimate of the average interval between the latest 10 episodes of faulting is now about 132 years variability about the mean interval is much greater than was suspected previously five of the nine intervals are shorter than a century three of the remaining four intervals are about two to three centuries long despite the wide range of these intervals a pattern in the occurrence of large earthquakes at pallett creek is apparent in the new data the past 10 earthquakes occur in four clusters each of which consists of two or three events earthquakes within the clusters are separated by periods of several decades but the clusters are separated by dormant periods of two to three centuries this pattern may reflect important mechanical aspects of the fault s behavior if this pattern continues into the future the current period of dormancy will probably be greater than two centuries this would mean that the section of the fault represented by the pallett creek site is currently in the middle of one of its longer periods of repose between clusters and sections of the fault farther to the southeast are much more likely to produce the next great earthquake in california the greater precision of dates now available for large earthquakes recorded at the pallett creek site enables speculative correlation of events between paleoseismic sites along the southern half of the san andreas fault a history of great earthquakes with overlapping rupture zones along the mojave section of the fault remains one of the more attractive possibilities

paving the seafloor volcanic emplacement processes during the 2005 2006 eruptions at the fast spreading east pacific rise 9 50 n 1 the 2005 2006 eruptions near 9 50 n at the east pacific rise epr marked the first observed repeat eruption at a mid ocean ridge and provided a unique opportunity to deduce the emplacement dynamics of submarine lava flows since these new flows were documented in april 2006 a total of 40 deep towed imaging surveys have been conducted with the woods hole oceanographic institution s whoi towcam system more than 60 000 digital color images and high resolution bathymetric profiles of the 2005 2006 flows from the towcam surveys were analyzed for lava flow morphology and for the presence of kipukas collapse features faults and fissures we use these data to quantify the spatial distributions of lava flow surface morphologies and to investigate how they relate to the physical characteristics of the ridge crest such as seafloor slope and inferred dynamics of flow emplacement we conclude that lava effusion rate was the dominant factor controlling the observed morphological variations in the 2005 2006 flows we also show that effusion rates were higher than in previously studied eruptions at this site and varied systematically along the length of the eruptive fissure this is the first well documented study in which variations in seafloor lava morphology can be directly related to a well documented ridge crest eruption where effusion rate varied significantly

in situ ground deformation measurements from the summit of axial volcano during the 1998 volcanic episode since september 1987 seafloor instrumentation monitoring ground deformation has been maintained on the summit of axial volcano on the central juan de fuca ridge during a january 1998 volcanic episode pressure records from the central caldera showed a significant increase in pressure indicating caldera subsidence of over 3 m this observed subsidence is interpreted to represent volcanic deflation as magma is erupted and or injected into the volcanic flanks temperature anomalies of nearly 0 45 c were also observed a comparison of the subsidence record with hydroacoustic recordings indicates a continuous volcanic tremor signal coincident with the subsidence event the time coincidence of subsidence of the summit caldera with migration of epicenters into the volcanic rift zones confirms that during the 1998 episode the volcanic flanks were supplied by lateral dike injection from a central magma body rather than locally derived magma sources

fault healing inferred from time dependent variations in source properties of repeating earthquakes we analyze two sets of repeating earthquakes on the calaveras fault to estimate in situ rates of fault strengthening healing earthquake recurrence intervals tr range from 3 to 803 days variations in relative moment and duration are combined to study changes in stress drop rupture dimension rupture veloc ity and particle velocity as a function of t healing rates and source variations are compared with predictions of laboratory derived friction laws two interpretations of event duration z are used one in which is given by the ratio of slip to particle ve locity and one in which it scales as rupture dimension divided by rupture velocity our data indicate that faults strengthen during the interseismic period we infer that source dimension de creases with t r due to aseismic creep within the region surround ing the repeating events stress drop increases 1 3mpa per dec ade increase in twhich represents an increase of a factor of 2 3 relative to events with tbetween 10 and 100 days this rate of fault healing is consistent with extrapolations of laboratory meas urements of healing rates if fault strength is high on order of 60mpa and stress drop is roughly 10 of this value

a 100 year average recurrence interval for the san andreas fault at wrightwood california evidence for five large earthquakes during the past five centuries along the san andreas fault zone 70 kilometers northeast of los angeles california indicates that the average recurrence interval and the temporal variability are significantly smaller than previously thought rapid sedimentation during the past 5000 years in a 150 meter wide structural depression has produced a greater than 21 meter thick sequence of debris flow and stream deposits interbedded with more than 50 datable peat layers fault scarps colluvial wedges fissure infills upward termination of ruptures and tilted and folded deposits above listric faults provide evidence for large earthquakes that occurred in a d 1857 1812 and about 1700 1610 and 1470

paleoseismic event dating and the conditional probability of large earthquakes on the southern san andreas fault california we introduce a quantitative approach to paleoearthquake dating and apply it to paleoseismic data from the wrightwood and pallett creek sites on the southern san andreas fault we illustrate how stratigraphic ordering sedimentolog ical and historical data can be used quantitatively in the process of estimating earth quake ages calibrated radiocarbon age distributions are used directly from layer dating through recurrence intervals and recurrence probability estimation the method does not eliminate subjective judgements in event dating but it does provide a means of systematically and objectively approaching the dating process date dis tributions for the most recent 14 events at wrightwood are based on sample and contextual evidence in fumal et al 2002 and site context and slip history in weldon et al 2002 pallett creek event and dating descriptions are from published sources for the five most recent events at wrightwood our results are consistent with pre viously published estimates with generally comparable or narrower uncertainties for pallett creek our earthquake date estimates generally overlap with previous results but typically have broader uncertainties some event date estimates are very sensitive to details of data interpretation the historical earthquake in 1857 ruptured the ground at both sites but is not constrained by radiocarbon data radiocarbon ages peat accumulation rates and historical constraints at pallett creek for event x yield a date estimate in the earliest 1800s and preclude a date in the late 1600s this event is almost certainly the historical 1812 earthquake as previously concluded by sieh et al 1989 this earthquake also produced ground deformation at wrightwood all events at pallett creek except for event t about a d 1360 and possibly event i about a d 960 have corresponding events at wrightwood with some overlap in age ranges event t falls during a period of low sedimentation at wrightwood when conditions were not favorable for recording earthquake evidence previously pro posed correlations of pallett creek x with wrightwood w3 in the 1690s and pallett creek event v with w5 around 1480 fumal et al 1993 appear unlikely after our dating reevaluation apparent internal inconsistencies among event layer and dating relationships around events r and v identify them as candidates for further inves tigation at the site conditional probabilities of earthquake recurrence were estimated using poisson lognormal and empirical models the presence of 12 or 13 events at wrightwood during the same interval that 10 events are reported at pallett creek is reflected in mean recurrence intervals of 105 and 135 years respectively average poisson model 30 year conditional probabilities are about 20 at pallett creek and 25 at wrightwood the lognormal model conditional probabilities are somewhat higher about 25 for pallett creek and 34 for wrightwood lognormal variance rln estimates of 0 76 and 0 70 respectively imply only weak time predictability conditional probabilities of 29 and 46 respectively were estimated for an em pirical distribution derived from the data alone conditional probability uncertainties are dominated by the brevity of the event series dating uncertainty contributes only secondarily wrightwood and pallett creek event chronologies both suggest varia tions in recurrence interval with time hinting that some form of recurrence rate modulation may be at work but formal testing shows that neither series is more ordered than might be produced by a poisson process

active tectonic studies in the united states 1987 1990 the techniques and instrumentation used in active tectonic studies are discussed and recent results are reviewed it is suggested that a critical mass of data on several particular regions has been accumulated making possible critical debates and attempts to assess earthquake hazards particular attention is given to studies of the pacific northwest region basin and range deformation studies and distributed deformation and hidden earthquake sources also included is a comprehensive bibliography for the period

earthquake recurrence time variations with and without fault zone interactions summary the macroscopic behaviour of a fault zone can be described by a classic coulomb friction law and static kinetic rheology the critical failure stress leading to the activation of a single shear zone segment then depends on the normal stress acting on the future fault plane it is known that the seismic cycle on a main fault patch can be modulated by surrounding fault activations leading to interaction with the main segment or by other external stress perturbations the results presented here stem from analytical assessments and 2 d numerical elastic models they show that an earthquake recurrence time variation with continuing deformation system development is not necessarily connected to fault interaction processes under the above assumptions instead aperiodicity can result from a non ideal orientation of the rupture plane in the simplest possible homogeneous stress eld even when constant loading rate and frictional parameters are assumed this eiect can still be found in the multifault geometries we studied where the interaction of segments determines the seismicity patterns of the system to varying extents our results suggest that a stable earthquake periodicity on non changing fault sets will seldom be found in nature we propose a reconsideration of the ideas leading to a hypothesized steady seismic cycle in earthquake prediction models

interaction of the san jacinto and san andreas fault zones southern california triggered earthquake migration and coupled recurrence intervals two lines of evidence suggest that large earthquakes that occur on either the san jacinto fault zone sjfz or the san andreas fault zone safz may be triggered by large earthquakes that occur on the other first the great 1857 fort tejon earthquake in the safz seems to have triggered a progressive sequence of earthquakes in the sjfz these earthquakes occurred at times and locations that are consistent with triggering by a strain pulse that propagated southeastward at a rate of 1 7 kilometers per year along the sjfz after the 1857 earthquake second the similarity in average recurrence intervals in the sjfz about 150 years and in the mojave segment of the safz 132 years suggests that large earthquakes in the northern sjfz may stimulate the relatively frequent major earthquakes on the mojave segment analysis of historic earthquake occurrence in the sjfz suggests little likelihood of extended quiescence between earthquake sequences

quasi periodic recurrence of large earthquakes on the southern san andreas fault it has been 153 yr since the last large earthquake on the southern san andreas fault california united states but the average interseismic interval is only 100 yr if the recurrence of large earthquakes is periodic rather than random or clustered the length of this period is notable and would generally increase the risk estimated in probabilistic seismic hazard analyses unfortunately robust characterization of a distribution describing earthquake recurrence on a single fault is limited by the brevity of most earthquake records here we use statistical tests on a 3000 yr combined record of 29 ground rupturing earthquakes from wrightwood california we show that earthquake recurrence there is more regular than expected from a poisson distribution and is not clustered leading us to conclude that recurrence is quasi periodic the observation of unimodal time dependence is persistent across an observationally based sensitivity analysis that critically examines alternative interpretations of the geologic record the results support formal forecast efforts that use renewal models to estimate probabilities of future earthquakes on the southern san andreas fault only four intervals 15 from the record are longer than the present open interval highlighting the current hazard posed by this fault

changes in state of stress on the southern san andreas fault resulting from the california earthquake sequence of april to june 1992 the april to june 1992 landers earthquake sequence in southern california modified the state of stress along nearby segments of the san andreas fault causing a 50 kilometer segment of the fault to move significantly closer to failure where it passes through a compressional bend near san gorgonio pass the decrease in compressive normal stress may also have reduced fluid pressures along that fault segment as pressures are reequilibrated by diffusion that fault segment should move closer to failure with time that fault segment and another to the southeast probably have not ruptured in a great earthquake in about 300 years