seismicity and stress distribution in the copiapo northern chile subduction zone using combined on and off shore seismic observations abstract historic as well as teleseismically and locally recorded seismicity of the subduction margin of copiapo northern chile is analysed an on and off shore temporary network was deployed during 2 months in the region in order to obtain a detailed definition of the wadati benioff zone an average dip angle of 20 along the subduction thrust interplate contact was determined this value is similar to that observed along the chilean margin suggesting that there are no variations in the dip angle of the nazca plate for depths less than 50 60 km locally recorded data do not provide seismic evidence to determine whether subhorizontal subduction exists north of latitude 28 s teleseismically recorded events exhibit a low rate of occurrence of inland earthquakes with a tendency for epicentres to be located off shore in contrast locally recorded seismicity reveals a homogeneous epicentral distribution without a predominance of off shore events along the subduction thrust contact there is a reverse stress regime with the greatest compression axis 1 horizontal and oriented perpendicular to the strike of the trench events located above the main decollement are in a normal stress regime with the minimum compressive stress axis 3 horizontally oriented parallel to the convergence direction the events located below the coupled interplate contact also lie in a normal faulting regime but the 3 axis plunges almost parallel to the subducting plate the intermediate depth fault plane solutions exhibit a substantial scatter suggesting a complicated faulting regime similar to that observed in previous studies of northern chile they are associated with a normal faulting stress regime in which 3 is oriented in a n14 e direction parallel to the strike of the trench high resolution bathymetric data and seismicity located above the thrust contact suggest that seamounts are being subducting

earthquake scaling laws for creeping and non creeping faults the dependence of the summed moment release on the fault dimension differs between non creeping faults and creeping faults or volcanic regions this can be attributed to different earthquake scaling laws the number n of events with fault length l scales for non creeping faults as n l l 2 and for creeping faults as n l l 3 this difference offers a means for mapping the distribution of creep in the seismogenic crust

basin centered asperities in great subduction zone earthquakes a link between slip subsidence and subduction erosion 1 published areas of high coseismic slip or asperities for 29 of the largest circum pacific megathrust earthquakes are compared to forearc structure revealed by satellite free air gravity bathymetry and seismic profiling on average 71 of an earthquake s seismic moment and 79 of its asperity area occur beneath the prominent gravity low outlining the deep sea terrace 57 of an earthquake s asperity area on average occurs beneath the forearc basins that lie within the deep sea terrace in sw japan slip in the 1923 1944 1946 and 1968 earthquakes was largely centered beneath five forearc basins whose landward edge overlies the 350 c isotherm on the plate boundary the inferred downdip limit of the locked zone basin centered coseismic slip also occurred along the aleutian mexico peru and chile subduction zones but was ambiguous for the great 1964 alaska earthquake beneath intrabasin structural highs seismic slip tends to be lower possibly due to higher temperatures and fluid pressures kilometers of late cenozoic subsidence and crustal thinning above some of the source zones are indicated by seismic profiling and drilling and are thought to be caused by basal subduction erosion the deep sea terraces and basins may evolve not just by growth of the outer arc high but also by interseismic subsidence not recovered during earthquakes basin centered asperities could indicate a link between subsidence subduction erosion and seismogenesis whatever the cause forearc basins may be useful indicators of long term seismic moment release the source zone for cascadia s 1700 a d earthquake contains five large basin centered gravity lows that may indicate potential asperities at depth the gravity gradient marking the inferred downdip limit to large coseismic slip lies offshore except in northwestern washington where the low extends landward beneath the coast transverse gravity highs between the basins suggest that the margin is seismically segmented and could produce a variety of large earthquakes

interseismic strain accumulation measured by gps in the seismic gap between constitucion and concepcion in chile the concepcion constitucion area 35 37 s in south central chile is very likely a mature seismic gap since no large subduction earthquake has occurred there since 1835 three campaigns of global positioning system gps measurements were carried out in this area in 1996 1999 and 2002 we observed a network of about 40 sites including two east west transects ranging from the coastal area to the argentina border and one north south profile along the coast our measurements are consistent with the nazca south america relative angular velocity 55 9 n 95 2 w 0 610 ma discussed by vigny et al 2008 this issue which predicts a convergence of 68 mm year oriented 79 n at the chilean trench near

extreme dynamic weakening of faults during dehydration by coseismic shear heating the dynamic strength of seismogenic faults has a critical effect on earthquake slip instability and seismic energy release high velocity friction experiments on simulated faults in serpentinite at earthquake slip conditions show a decrease in friction coefficient from 0 6 to 0 15 as the slip velocity reaches 1 1 m s at normal stresses up to 24 5 mpa the extraordinary reduction in fault strength is attributed to flash heating at asperity contacts of gouge particles formed during sliding the rapid heating at asperities causes serpentine dehydration in impermeable fault zones in nature serpentine dehydration and subsequent fluid pressurization due to coseismic frictional heating may promote further weakening this dynamic fault weakening mechanism may explain the lack of pronounced heat flow in major crustal faults such as the san andreas

the 1960 chile earthquake inversion for slip distribution from surface deformation summary a total of 166 observations of sea level change 130 measurements of elevation difference and 16 determinations of horizontal strain provide an excellent view of the quasi static source process of the great 1960 chilean earthquake these surface deformation data were employed in classical uniform slip fault models as well as more recently developed models that allow spatial variability of slip the best uniform slip planar usp model is 850km long 130km wide and dips 20 seventeen metres of fault displacement contributed to a usp moment of 9 4 times 1022 n m the variable slip planar vsp model concentrates slip on a 900 km long 150 km wide band parallel to the coast several peaks of slip with dimensions of 50 100 km appear in this band and are thought to represent major subduction zone asperities important fractures of the oceanic lithosphere bound the 1960 rupture and are offered as a potential source of fault segmentation within the chilean subduction zone the vsp moment for 1960 earthquake totals 9 5 times 1022 n m about one fifth of the value estimated for the foreshock mainshock sequence from seismic methods except for areas out to sea geodetic resolution on the fault is fairly uniform thus it is unlikely that slip missed by the network could increase the vsp moment much beyond 1 8 times 1023 n m several patches of moment isolated from the main body at 80 110 km depth are found down dip in the vsp model and are presumably indicative of aseismic slip one patch at the northern end of the rupture is probably associated with the initiation phase of the mainshock although the time sequence of the relationship is unknown tide gauge records suggest that another patch between 40 and 43 s responsible for the observed strain and uplifts inland at those latitudes is not of coseismic origin but derives from in place post seismic creep over several years apparently great 1960 type events are not typical members of the 128 yr earthquake cycle in south central chile the nazca south america boundary here is characterized by a variable rupture mode in which major asperities are completely broken by great earthquakes only once in four or five earthquake cycles the more frequent large earthquakes that geographically overlap the great events fill in between the locked zones

mapping the b value anomaly at 100 km depth in the alaska and new zealand subduction zones a positive anomaly in the frequency magnitude distribution b value is detected at approximately 90 100 km depth in two subduction zones the b value in this anomalous zone is 40 higher than in adjacent volumes we use regional catalogs with a magnitude of completeness of 2 6 central alaska and cook inlet 2 0 shumagin islands and 3 5 new zealand to resolve the b value as a function of space in more detail we project all earthquakes onto planes perpendicular to the strike of the slab these cross section views of the b value distribution locate the high b value anomalies at a depth of 90 100 km on the upper surface of the wadati benioff zone at these depths slab dehydration may increase pore pressure thus lowering the effective stress and increasing the b value increased pore pressure would also lower the liquidus in the overlying asthenosphere giving rise to the volcanism that occurs directly above this zone

megathrust asperities and clusters of slab dehydration identified by spatiotemporal characterization of seismicity below the andean margin summary the space time size distributions of seismicity during the last four decades 1973 2010 are used to identify megathrust asperities the degree of plate coupling hence potential future large earthquakes and slab dehydration below the andean margin 15 48 s this seismicity displays globally a typical magnitude distribution with a b value of 1 04 0 024 for a magnitude of completeness of 4 5 and without considering aftershock sequences however this unitary b value of the entire catalogue masks large variations 0 6 1 7 in space and time interpreted as related to different tectonics contexts or different states of the seismic cycle the study has been performed for different regions upper continental plate upper and lower parts of the subducting oceanic plate with respect to a 3 d slab geometry model all along the andean margin low b values 0 6 0 8 are observed in areas that were ruptured by large mw 7 5 megathrust earthquakes a temporal analysis of these features show that b values where low before these earthquakes and remain low after the relaxation of the aftershock phase suggesting that they are related to time persistent asperities within the seismogenic zone of the megathrust interestingly a persistently low b value was observed from 2001 to the end 2009 within the southern limit of the maule mw 8 8 earthquake 2010 february 27 our results also identify other low b asperities below the chilean margin that have not ruptured during the last 40 yr and are places of potentially large megathrust earthquakes in the future in contrast large b values 1 1 1 7 are observed at seismicity clusters occurring inside the subducted slab beneath the central volcanic zone cvz of the andes and below the forearc near the subduction point of aseismic ridges and fracture zones clusters below the cvz are spatially related to relative large intermediate depth earthquakes like the mw 7 8 tarapaca 2005 earthquake and may reveal extensive thermally driven dehydration of the oceanic lithosphere that favours wet mantle melting and therefore magmagenesis feeding the volcanic chain

teleseismic inversion for rupture process of the 27 february 2010 chile mw 8 8 earthquake the 27 february 2010 chile m w 8 8 earthquake is the fifth largest earthquake to strike during the age of seismological instrumentation the faulting geometry slip distribution seismic moment and moment rate function are estimated from broadband teleseismic p sh and rayleigh wave signals we explore some of the trade offs in the rupture process estimation due to model parameterizations limited teleseismic sampling of seismic phase velocities and uncertainty in fault geometry the average slip over the 81 500 km 2 rupture area is about 5 m with slip concentrations down dip up dip and southwest and up dip and north of the hypocenter relatively little slip occurred up dip offshore of the hypocenter the average rupture velocity is 2 0 2 5 km s

variations in earthquake size distribution across different stress regimes the earthquake size distribution follows in most instances a power law1 2 with the slope of this power law the b value commonly used to describe the relative occurrence of large and small events a high b value indicates a larger proportion of small earthquakes and vice versa statistically significant variations of b values have been measured in laboratory experiments mines and various tectonic regimes such as subducting slabs near magma chambers along fault zones and in aftershock zones3 however it has remained uncertain whether these differences are due to differing stress regimes as it was questionable that samples in small volumes such as in laboratory specimens mines and the shallow earth s crust are representative of earthquakes in general given the lack of physical understanding of these differences the observation that b values approach the constant 1 if large volumes are sampled4 was interpreted to indicate that b 1 is a universal constant for earthquakes in general5 here we show that the b value varies systematically for different styles of faulting we find that normal faulting events have the highest b values thrust events the lowest and strike slip events intermediate values given that thrust faults tend to be under higher stress than normal faults we infer that the b value acts as a stress meter that depends inversely on differential stress

mapping active magma chambers by b values beneath the off ito volcano japan the b value of the frequency magnitude relation and thus the mean magnitude in the off ito volcanic area is not uniform based on detailed b value tomography using about 10 000 events in an area of 10 km radius and in the upper 15 km of the crust a high b value anomaly b 15 below 7 km depth and with a radius of about 2 km located below the coast southeast of ito contrasts with lower values of typically b 0 7 north of it and at shallower depths on the basis of surface deformations a tensile crack dislocation source was located above 7 km depth thus we surmise that the magma chamber in the off ito area was located below 7 km depth the correlation of a high b value anomaly with this model supports our hypothesis that active magma chambers may be mapped by high b value anomalies the magma body may be described as consisting of two parts a lower well established chamber below 11 km depth and a shallower part 11 7 km depth the b value in the volume surrounding the magma chamber increased from 0 7 during the 1980s to 1 5 during the earthquake swarms of the 1990s this may reflect a trend of increasing crack density due to the intrusion activity

control of forearc density structure on megathrust shear strength along the chilean subduction zone abstract unveiling how the interaction of friction pore pressure p and normal stress n controls the shear strength distribution along megathrust faults at convergent plate boundaries is crucial to our understanding of processes leading to the occurrence of devastating earthquake and the construction of mountains an existing density model of the chilean margin 18 45 s allows the computation of the so called vertical stress anomaly vsa that accounts for the component of normal stress due to the weight of the overlying crustal column a spatial correlation between vsa surface geology and several earthquake parameters suggests a significant control exerted by the geologically dominated density structure of the crust on megathrust shear strength the very seismogenic forearc in front of the high central andes 18 34 s has positive vsa values up to 60 mpa and a mafic dominated crust which suggest high values of shear strength at the megathrust that are partially controlled by the weight of a dense forearc crustal column in addition to a likely dry subduction channel characterized by high and low p in contrast the southern andean forearc 34 45 s shows neutral to negative vsa down to 30 mpa correlated with a felsic dominated crust which added to a presumably wet subduction channel low and high p configures a rather weak megathrust below a light forearc earthquakes here are concentrated around the arauco peninsula a first order morpho structural anomaly characterized by comparatively higher values of vsa than the rest of this segment which is the nest of the giant mw 9 5 valdivia 1960 earthquake and the southern rupture termination of the recent mw 8 8 maule earthquake the ultimately giant size of the 1960 earthquake resulted from rupture propagation along a 1000 km long region characterized by negative vsa values the correlation between vsa and the along strike segmentation of the andean orogen indicates that the geologically inherited density structure of the forearc also rules long term mechanical coupling between converging plates and prescribes the possible structure of the orogen because central and southern andes represent two extremes in terms of orogenic structure and seismogenic behavior results presented here have significant implications for the general comprehension of processes occurring at short and long time scale at convergent margins

rupture characteristics of the 2005 tarapaca northern chile intermediate depth earthquake evidence for heterogeneous fluid distribution across the subducting oceanic plate 1 we examined the rupture of the 2005 tarapaca northern chile earthquake at about 110 km depth with respect to both kinematic and dynamic characteristics by using regional and teleseismic waveforms the earthquake has a downdip tensional focal mechanism the subhorizontal rupture is characterized by two patches of large slip and high stress drop which are aligned nearly in the east west direction being perpendicular to the direction of the chile trench rupture initiated in the eastern patch and then propagated to the western patch between the two patches there exists a region of nonpositive stress drop and high strength excess which can cause subshear rupture to propagate from the eastern to the western patches but radiates little seismic waves seismic radiation energy from this earthquake tends to be low which is consistent with the nonpositive stress drop and high strength excess between the two patches while the physical mechanism of intermediate depth earthquakes is still controversial current leading hypotheses are associated with dehydration within subducting plates the rupture characteristics of the tarapaca earthquake can be related to heterogeneous fluid distribution due to the dehydration the spatial separation and dominant stress of the two large slip patches agree with the characteristics of the previously reported double seismic zone beneath chile the two patches may be the manifestation of the double seismic zone where dehydration reactions can release fluid using a numerical simulation of 3 d dynamic rupture we have shown that weakening due to fluid can account for the rupture characteristics of the tarapaca earthquake

seismic investigations of the o higgins seamount group and juan fernandez ridge aseismic ridge emplacement and lithosphere hydration the o higgins seamount group is a cluster of volcanic domes located 120 km west of the central chilean trench on the crest of the juan fernandez ridge this aseismic hot spot track is subducting under south america triggering a belt of intraslab earthquake hypocenters extending about 700 km inland the juan fernandez ridge marks the southern boundary of a shallow subduction segment subduction of oceanic basement relief has been suggested as a cause for the flat slab segments characterizing the andean trench system the juan fernandez ridge however shows only moderate crustal thickening inadequate to cause significant buoyancy in 2001 wide angle seismic data were collected along two perpendicular profiles crossing the o higgins group we present tomographic images of the volcanic edifices and adjacent outer rise trench environment which indicate a magmatic origin of the seamounts dominated by extrusive processes high resolution bathymetric data yield a detailed image of a network of syngenetic structures reactivated in the outer rise setting a pervasive fault pattern restricted to the hot spot modified lithosphere coincides with anomalous low upper mantle velocities gained from a tomographic inversion of seismic mantle phases reduced uppermost mantle velocities are solely found underneath the juan fernandez ridge and may indicate mineral alterations enhanced buoyancy due to crustal and upper mantle hydration may contribute an additional mechanism for shallow subduction which prevails to the north after the southward migration of the juan fernandez ridge

large trench parallel gravity variations predict seismogenic behavior in subduction zones we demonstrate that great earthquakes occur predominantly in regions with a strongly negative trench parallel gravity anomaly tpga whereas regions with strongly positive tpga are relatively aseismic these observations suggest that over time scales up to at least 1 million years spatial variations of seismogenic behavior within a given subduction zone are stationary and linked to the geological structure of the fore arc the correlations we observe are consistent with a model in which spatial variations in frictional properties on the plate interface control trench parellel variations in fore arc topography gravity and seismogenic behavior

spatial and temporal b value anomalies preceding the devastating off coast of nw sumatra earthquake of december 26 2004 1 spatial and temporal variations of b values are studied by means of 624 earthquakes in the andaman nicobar islands region during a five year period preceding the giant shock on december 26 2004 sliding time and space windows containing 50 events are used temporal variations reveal two significant drops in b value which coincide with the occurrence of two large shocks ms 7 0 towards the end of 2002 and with the mw 9 0 event in 2004 the spatial distribution shows accumulation of stresses low b around the epicentres of the 2002 and 2004 events and an event in north andaman the area of high stress around the 2004 epicenter extends in nnw sse direction over an area about 450 km long

slip distribution of the february 27 2010 mw 8 8 maule earthquake central chile from static and high rate gps insar and broadband teleseismic data 1 the shallow depth underthrust earthquake of february 27 2010 mw 8 8 ruptured the subduction plate interface in central chile between 34 s and 38 s we retrieve the spatial and temporal distribution of slip during this mega earthquake through a joint inversion of teleseismic records insar and high rate gps hrgps data additionally our model is shown to agree with broadband surface waves rupture initiated at about 32 km depth and propagated bilaterally resulting in two main slip zones located ssw and nne of the hypocenter nucleation did not take place within or at the edge of one of these main asperities but in between during the first 30s slip propagated predominantly southwards later on the rupture evolved more slowly and more symmetrically eventually the northern asperity became predominant with maximum slip reaching about 20 m most of the seismic moment was released within 110s a relatively short time explained by the bilateral propagation the overall average rupture velocity is 2 6 km s but propagation occurred initially faster towards the south 3 2 km s large slip did not reach the trench a result consistent with the moderate size of the tsunami down dip rupture stopped at about 50 km depth in agreement with the lower limit of the locked zone inferred by ruegg et al 2009 from pre seismic gps data

sedimentology of an ice contact glaciomarine fan complex nastapoka hills eastern hudson bay northern quebec abstract emerged holocene coalescing glaciomarine fans are exposed along the nastapoka hills eastern hudson bay the fans form part of a regional stratified drift belt associated with terrestrial and submarine frontal moraines and other grounding lines deposits these thick extensive and in many cases coalescent sediment bodies were deposited during a stillstand of the quebec labrador sector qls of the laurentide ice sheet lis that pinned on the hills during eastward retreat from hudson bay the fans are composed of basal interbedded and interlaminated sand silt and silty clay facies association i fa i deposited by suspension settling from overflow plumes sediment gravity flows and ice rafting towards the ice contact zone fa i interfingers with diamict layers fa ii deposited by gravity flows and ice rafting these two sedimentary units are overlain by interbedded sand and gravel fa iii formed by reworking during subsequent emergence parts of fa i and fa ii were remobilized by submarine gravity flows which prevailed long after ice retreat the sedimentology of the nastapoka hills provides information on the processes operating near the grounding line of a temperate ice sheet reaching tidewater

three dimensional density model of the nazca plate and the andean continental margin 1 we forward modeled the bouguer anomaly in a region encompassing the pacific ocean 85 w and the andean margin 60 w between northern peru 5 s and patagonia 45 s the three dimensional density model that reproduces the gravity field is a continental scale representation of density structure to 410 km depth that characterizes the mantle and crust of the oceanic nazca plate subducted slab and continental margin with a minimum number of bodies we predefined the density of each body after studying the dependency of density on composition of crustal and mantle materials and pressure temperature conditions appropriate for the andean setting a database of independent geophysical information constrains the geometry of the top of the subducted slab locally the moho of the oceanic and continental crusts and indirectly the lithosphere asthenosphere boundary underneath the continental plate other boundaries notably the intracrustal density discontinuity separating upper from lower crust below the continent were not constrained and their geometry is the result of fitting the observed and calculated bouguer anomaly during forward modeling this contribution presents the model to the andean geoscientific community and contains some tools like a sensitivity analysis that helps potential users of the model to interpret its results we describe and discuss some of these results in order to illustrate the application of the model to the study of a wide range of phenomena e g modification of oceanic plate structure by hot spots shape of the subducted slab thermal structure of the continental lithosphere compensation mechanism and formation of orogenic relieve causes of andean segmentation

effect of slab temperature on deep earthquake aftershock productivity and magnitude frequency relations deep earthquakes generally show fewer aftershocks and a larger variability in magnitude frequency relations than shallow earthquakes1 5 these characteristics and the factors that control them may place constraints on the mechanism of deep earthquakes which is still uncertain6 8 here we show that systematic variations in aftershock productivity and magnitude frequency relations are related to the temperature of the downgoing slab as inferred from the vertical velocity and age of the subducting lithosphere deep earthquakes with substantial aftershock sequences are found only in colder slabs and earthquakes in warmer slabs consistently show few aftershocks magnitude frequency relations for deep earthquakes also show systematic variations as a function of slab thermal structure with warmer slabs showing fewer small earthquakes lower b values the statistical properties of deep earthquakes thus appear to be temperature sensitive to an extent not observed for shallow earthquakes and not adequately explained by simple geometrical limitations on fault width

mapping the frequency magnitude distribution in asperities an improved technique to calculate recurrence times we hypothesize that highly stressed asperities may be defined by mapping anomalously low b values along the san andreas fault near parkfield the asperity under middle mountain with its b 0 46 can be distinguished from all other parts of the fault surface likewise along the calaveras fault the northern asperity of the morgan hill 1984 m6 2 rupture can be identified by its low b of 0 5 as a high stress patch along the fault we add further evidence to the observations that the b value of the frequency magnitude relationship of earthquakes is inversely proportional to stress by showing that it decreases with depth in the parkfield segment of the san andreas and along the calaveras fault in both of these areas b values above and below 5 km depth are 1 2 and 0 8 respectively we propose that probabilistic recurrence times tr based on the seismicity parameters a and b should be calculated from their values within asperities only instead of from the values of the entire rupture area of the maximum expected earthquake the strong patches on faults control the time of rupture because they are capable of accumulating larger stresses than the rest of the fault zone which slips along passively when an asperity breaks therefore no information on tr is contained in the passive fault segments only in the asperities at parkfield the probabilistic estimates of tr derived from the data in the whole rupture and in the asperity only are 72 18 24 and 23 12 18 years respectively compared to the historically observed repeat time of 22 years at morgan hill the tr estimates are 122 46 76 and 78 47 110 years respectively compared to the observed repeat time of 72 years

seismic potential for large and great interplate earthquakes along the chilean and southern peruvian margins of south america a quantitative reappraisal the seismic potential of the chilean and southern peruvian margins of south america is reevaluated to delineate those areas or segments of the margin that may be expected to experience large or great interplate earthquakes within the next 20 years 1984 2004 long term estimates of seismic potential or the conditional probability of recurrence within a specified period of time are based on 1 statistical analysis of historic repeat time data using weibull distributions and 2 deterministic estimates of recurrence times based on the time predictable model of earthquake recurrence both methods emphasize the periodic nature of large and great earthquake recurrence and are compared with estimates of probability based on the assumption of poisson type behavior the estimates of seismic potential presented in this study are long term forecasts only as the temporal resolution or standard deviation of both methods is taken to range from 15 to 25 of the average or estimated repeat time at present the valparaiso region of central chile 32 35 s has a high potential or probability of recurrence in the next 20 years coseismic uplift data associated with previous shocks in 1822 and 1906 suggest that this area may have already started to rerupture in 1971 1973 average repeat times also suggest this area is due for a great shock within the next 20 years flanking segments of the chilean margin coquimbo illapel 30 32 s and talca concepcion 35 38 s presently have poorly constrained but possibly quite high potentials for a series of large or great shocks within the next 20 years in contrast the rupture zone of the great 1960 earthquake 37 46 s has the lowest potential along the margin and is not expected to rerupture in a great earthquake within the next 100 years in the north the seismic potentials of the mollendo arica 17 18 s and arica antofagasta 18 24 s segments which last ruptured during great earthquakes in 1868 and 1877 are also high but poorly constrained

assessments on the stability of natural slopes prone to toe erosion and man made historical semi underground openings carved in soft tuffs at zelve open air museum cappadocia turkey abstract the zelve open air museum consisting of three valleys is one of the oldest historical semi underground settlements in the cappadocia region of turkey which was designated as a world heritage site in 1985 by unesco particularly in the first valley there are a lot of underground openings of different sizes carved in a soft tuff next to the valley cliffs used for cliff settlement in the past and several antique churches with some geo engineering problems in addition steep natural slopes in this valley are prone to toe erosion resulting in stability problems in this study it is aimed to investigate engineering characteristics of the surrounding tuff and factors affecting them and to assess the effect of rate of toe erosion on the stability of steep valley slopes and structural stability of some selected typical underground openings with large spans subjected to spalling for these purposes some observational experimental and numerical modelling studies were conducted experimental results indicate that strength and deformability properties of the weak tuff surrounding the openings drastically reduce when it becomes wet or saturated this situation suggests that possibility of occurrence of failures is expected to be higher in rainy seasons due to increase in water content of the tuff experimental results also suggest that spalling commonly observed in the valley is related with freezing thawing and wetting drying cycles in nature and that the process of freezing and thawing accelerates further the degradation of the rock the long term measurements at selected locations suggest that erosion in the tuff is important which increases particularly in winter and spring seasons and results in the loss of support accelerating the occurrence of further slope failures the 2 d numerical solutions indicate that no significant change in shear and tensile stresses in steep valley slopes prone to toe erosion would be expected after 100 years however the solutions obtained from the 500 and 1000 year scenarios suggest that failure zones due to the tensile stresses would develop in the form of slabs with thicknesses of 50 60 cm and 90 100 cm respectively which would break off from the slope and fall down the results from 3 d numerical solutions indicate that failure yield zone resulting from tensile stresses around the semi underground openings will develop parallel to the sidewalls these results confirm the observed spalling of the tuff in the form of slabs parallel to the walls of the openings

mapping asperities by minima of local recurrence time san jacinto elsinore fault zones minima of the local recurrence time tl m are correlated with the locations of historical main shocks in the san jacinto sj elsinore e fault zones of southern california we define tl m as the recurrence time calculated from the local b and a values of the frequency magnitude distribution earthquakes within 6 and 10 km from each point in the sj and e fault zones respectively we propose that anomalously low tl m values map asperities out of six historic main shocks 1899 1968 five ruptured substantial parts of four asperities mapped by our method which uses solely the modern earthquake catalog m 1 2 1981 0 1998 8 we estimate the probability for this correlation to occur at random as 10 2 to 10 3 depending on the scenario chosen it appears that the minima in tl m are tied to minima in b values more than to maxima in a values thus locations of low b values can also be used as an indication where asperities may be located and where main shocks are most likely the anza gap a segment of the san jacinto fault with low a values is mapped as an asperity by our method the heterogeneity in b values is strong throughout the study area the b values range from 0 5 to 1 8 over distances of 10 km volumes with approximately constant b values have radii of r 8 6 km our results suggest that detailed mapping of b values and local recurrence times in volumes with a few kilometers radius reveals important information about the local seismic hazard hitherto untapped by conventional seismicity analyses