a comparison of inner and outer spiral rainbands in a numerically simulated tropical cyclone abstractthe simulated inner and outer spiral rainbands in a tropical cyclone are compared in this study the inner rainbands are generally active immediately outside the eyewall in the rapid filamentation zone while the outer rainbands are active in regions outside about 3 times the radius of maximum wind the inner rainbands are characterized by the convectively coupled vortex rossby waves the movement of the outer rainbands follows the low level vector winds associated with the azimuthally averaged low level flow and the radially outward cross band flow caused by the downdraft induced cold pool in the boundary layer convective cells in outer rainbands are typical of convective systems and move cyclonically and radially outward inward at large small radii net upward vertical mass transports vmts appear throughout the depth of the troposphere in the whole inner rainband region while net downward vmts are found below 4 km height in the outer rainband region in the whole inner rainband region on

large scale patterns associated with tropical cyclogenesis in the western pacific abstract five characteristic low level large scale dynamical patterns associated with tropical cyclogenesis in the western north pacific basin are examined along with their capacity to generate the type of mesoscale convective systems that precede genesis an 8 yr analysis set for the region is used to identify and create composites for the five characteristic patterns of monsoon shear line monsoon confluence region monsoon gyre easterly waves and rossby energy dispersion this brings out the common processes that contribute to tropical cyclogenesis within that pattern which are described in detail a 3 yr set of satellite data is then used to analyze the mesoscale convective system activity for all cases of genesis in that period and to stratify based on the above large scale patterns it is found that mesoscale convective systems develop in all cases of genesis except one seventy percent of cases developed mesoscale convective systems at more than one time during the genesis period and 44 of

late cenozoic basin development in west turkey gordes basin tectonics and sedimentation the early miocene sedimentary succession in the northeast southwest trending gordes basin is 1000 m thick and divided into the da dere tepekoy and kuslukkoy formations the age of this fill can be constrained as between 24 2 ma and 16 3 ma at its widest interval paleocurrent directions from south to north demonstrate that the basin had a north dipping basin floor these observations are inconsistent with a previous model of the gordes basin as a cross graben with a south dipping basin floor towards the alasehir graben and an anomalously thick up to 3000 m basin filling

rapid weakening of tropical cyclones in monsoon gyres over the tropical western north pacific abstractas one major source of forecasting errors in tropical cyclone intensity rapid weakening of tropical cyclones an intensity reduction of 20 kt or more over a 24 h period over the tropical open ocean can result from the interaction between tropical cyclones and monsoon gyres this study aims to examine rapid weakening events occurring in monsoon gyres in the tropical western north pacific wnp basin during may october 2000 2014 although only less than one third of rapid weakening events happened in the tropical wnp basin south of 25 n more than 40 of them were associated with monsoon gyres about 85 of rapid weakening events in monsoon gyres occurred in september and october the rapid weakening events associated with monsoon gyres are usually observed near the center of monsoon gyres when tropical cyclone tracks make a sudden northward turn the gyres can enlarge the outer size of tropical cyclones and tend to induce prolonged rapid weakening events with an average duration of 33 2 h the la

seismotectonics of southern iran the oman line seismotectonic characteristics of the transition area between the zagros continental collision zone and the makran ocean continent convergence zone the oman line are carefully examined a northeast trending zone of earthquakes terminates the zagros belt of seismicity just west of the oman line this seismic zone extends northeastward beyond the main zagros thrust and coincides with a surface escarpment clearly visible on landsat imagery events with accurately determined depths along this seismic zone occurred in the upper 20 km of the crust and possibly show a shallow 10 northeastward dip east of the oman line the zendan minab fault system is relatively aseismic the oman line region may be characterized by underthrusting of a wedge of arabian shelf edge beneath iranian crust or by an indentation of arabia into the iranian crustal block as a promontory available seismological and geological data cannot uniquely distinguish between these two possible tectonic settings the area located to the northwest of the oman line region now a zone of continental collision appears to have been characterized by an episode of neogene subduction a well located intermediate depth earthquake occurred in this area to the northeast of the main zagros thrust on november 9 1970 it was accurately located at 107 km depth beneath a line of quaternary volcanoes its focal mechanism may indicate downdip tension with nodal planes that strike closely parallel to the trend of the zagros arc comparison of this event and other neotectonic features in this part of iran with those in other active convergent zones suggests that a descending oceanic lithosphere beneath the zagros volcanic arc may still be attached to the colliding arabian plate

eastern pacific hurricanes jimena of 1991 and olivia of 1994 the effect of vertical shear on structure and intensity abstract shear is a key inhibitor of tropical cyclone intensification although its signature is readily recognized in satellite imagery and theoretical or modeling studies provide some insight detailed observations have been limited airborne radar and in situ observations in hurricanes jimena of 1991 and olivia of 1994 are a step toward better understanding each storm was observed on two consecutive days initially both had small eyes 16 18 km radius and maximum winds of 57 m s 1 over sea surface temperatures sst 28 c in easterly environmental shear jimena maintained constant intensity or weakened gradually for 2 days in 13 20 m s 1 easterly shear olivia intensified in 8 m s 1 shear on the first day overnight the shear diminished to reverse and became westerly on the second day olivia weakened as the shear increased to 15 m s 1 from the west the storm moved over cooler sst and became surrounded by dryer air as convection weakened and the outer rainbands ceased to be effective barriers

earthquakes gravity and the origin of the bali basin an example of a nascent continental fold and thrust belt we infer from the bathymetry and gravity field and from the source mechanisms and depths of the eight largest earthquakes in the bali region that the bali basin is a downwarp in the crust of the sunda shelf produced and maintained by thrusting along the flores back arc thrust zone earthquake source mechanisms and focal depths are inferred from the inversion of long period p and sh waves for all events and short period p waves for two of the events centroidal depths that give the best fit to the seismograms range from 10 to 18 km but uncertainties in depth allow a range from 7 to 24 km the p wave nodal planes that dip south at 13 to 35 7 strike roughly parallel to the volcanic arc and are consistent with thrusting of crust of the bali basin beneath it the positions of the earthquakes with respect to crustal features inferred from seismic and gravity data suggest that the earthquakes occur in the basement along the western end of the flores thrust zone the slip direction for the back arc thrust zone inferred from the orientation of the earthquake slip vectors indicates that the thrusting in the bali basin is probably part of the overall plate convergence as it roughly coincides with the convergence direction between the sunda arc and the indian ocean plate summation of seismic moments of earthquakes between 1960 and 1985 suggests a minimum rate of convergence across the thrust zone of 4 2 mm a the presence of back arc thrusting suggests that some coupling between the indian ocean plate and the sunda arc occurs but mechanisms such as continental collision or a shallow subduction of the indian ocean plate probably can be ruled out the present tectonic setting and structure of the bali basin is comparable to the early forelands of the andes or western north america in that a fold and thrust belt is forming on the continental side of an arc trench system at which oceanic lithosphere is being subducted the bali basin is flanked by the tertiary java basin to the west and the oceanic flores basin to the east and thus provides an actualistic setting for the development of a fold and thrust belt in which structure and timing of deformation can change significantly along strike on the scale a few hundred kilometers

large intensity changes in tropical cyclones a case study of supertyphoon flo during tcm 90 abstract a unique dataset recorded during the rapid intensification and rapid decay of typhoon flo is analyzed to isolate associated environmental conditions and key physical processes this case occurred during the tropical cyclone motion tcm 90 field experiment with enhanced observations especially in the upper troposphere beyond about 300 km these data have been analyzed with a four dimensional data assimilation technique and a multiquadric interpolation technique while both the ocean thermal structure and vertical wind shear are favorable they do not explain the rapid intensification or the rapid decay a preconditioning phase is defined in which several interrelated factors combine to create favorable conditions i a cyclonic wind burst occurs at 200 mb ii vertical wind shear between 300 and 150 mb decreases 35 iii the warm core is displaced upward and iv 200 mb outflow becomes larger in the 400 1200 km radial band while a layer of inflow develops below this outflow these condit

effects of vertical wind shear on the intensity and structure of numerically simulated hurricanes a series of numerical simulations of tropical cyclones in idealized large scale environments is performed to examine the effects of vertical wind shear on the structure and intensity of hurricanes the simulations are performed using the nonhydrostatic pennsylvania state university national center for atmospheric research fifth generation mesoscale model using a 5 km fine mesh and fully explicit representation of moist processes when large scale vertical shears are applied to mature tropical cyclones the storms quickly develop wavenumber one asymmetries with upward motion and rainfall concentrated on the left side of the shear vector looking downshear in agreement with earlier studies the asymmetries develop due to the storm s response to imbalances caused by the shear the storms in shear weaken with time and eventually reach an approximate steady state intensity that is well below their theoretical maximum potential intensity as expected the magnitude of the weakening increases with increasing shear all of the storms experience time lags between the imposition of the large scale shear and the resulting rise in the minimum central pressure while the lag is at most a few hours when the storm is placed in very strong 15 m s21 shear storms in weaker shears experience much longer lag times with th e5ms 21 shear case showing no signs of weakening until more than 36 h after the shear is applied these lags suggest that the storm intensity is to some degree predictable from observations of largescale shear changes in all cases both the development of the asymmetries in core structure and the subsequent weakening of the storm occur before any resolvable tilt of the storm s vertical axis occurs it is hypothesized that the weakening of the storm occurs via the following sequence of events first the shear causes the structure of the eyewall region to become highly asymmetric throughout the depth of the storm second the asymmetries in the upper troposphere where the storm circulation is weaker become sufficiently strong that air with high values of potential vorticity and equivalent potential temperature are mixed outward rather than into the eye this allows the shear to ventilate the eye resulting in a loss of the warm core at upper levels which causes the central pressure to rise weakening the entire storm the maximum potential vorticity becomes concentrated in saturated portions of the eyewall cloud aloft rather than in the eye third the asymmetric features at upper levels are advected by the shear causing the upper portions of the vortex to tilt approximately downshear the storm weakens from the top down reaching an approximate steady state intensity when the ventilated layer can descend no farther due to the increasing strength and stability of the vortex at lower levels

a statistical analysis of vertical shear effect on tropical cyclone intensity change in the north atlantic 1 based on the best track data of tropical cyclones tcs in the north atlantic and the ncep ncar reanalysis during 1981 2008 the effect of vertical wind shear vws between different vertical levels and with different directions of shear on tc intensity change for tcs of different intensities translational speeds and latitudes were statistically analyzed the results show that tc intensity change and vws are generally negatively correlated indicating the overall negative effect of vws on tc intensity the strong slow moving and low latitude tcs are strongly affected by vws in a deep layer while the weak fast moving and high latitude tcs are subject to strong effect by vws in the mid lower troposphere furthermore overall easterly shear especially in the mid lower troposphere has considerably weaker effects on tc intensity change than westerly shear because part of the easterly shear could be offset by the beta induced northwesterly shear

observational analysis of sudden tropical cyclone track changes in the vicinity of the east china sea abstractan observational analysis of observed sudden typhoon track changes is conducted with a focus on the underlying mechanism and the possible role of slowly varying low frequency flows four typhoons that took a generally northwestward track prior to sharply turning northeastward in the vicinity of the east china sea are investigated it is found that the sudden track changes occurred near the center of the madden julian oscillation mjo scale cyclonic circulation or at the bifurcation point of the steering flows at 700 hpa and they were all associated with a well developed quasi biweekly oscillation qbw scale gyre calculation of vorticity advection suggests that the peripheral ridging resulting from the interaction between the typhoons and the flows on the mjo and qbw scales can compress the typhoon circulation leading to an area of high winds to the east or south of the typhoon center the enhanced synoptic scale winds shifted the typhoons northward and placed them in a northeastward orbit unde

the effect of relative flow on the asymmetric structure in the interior of hurricanes abstract asymmetric structure of tropical cyclones simulated by the geophysical fluid dynamics laboratory high resolution triply nested movable mesh hurricane model was analyzed emphasis was placed on the quasi steady component of the asymmetric structure in the region of the eyewall it was found that the asymmetry was primarily caused by the relative wind that is the flow entering and leaving the storm region relative to the moving storm a set of idealized numerical experiments was first performed both with a constant and a variable coriolis parameter f and the addition of basic flows that were either constant or sheared with height analysis was then made for one case of hurricane gilbert 1988 to demonstrate that the quasi steady asymmetric structure analyzed in the idealized studies could be identified in this real data case vorticity analysis in the variable f experiment indicated that quasi steady asymmetries resulted in the eyewall region through the effect of vorticity advection due to

the effect of vertical shear on tropical cyclone intensity change abstract the effect of vertical shear on tropical cyclone intensity change is usually explained in terms of ventilation where heat and moisture at upper levels are advected away from the low level circulation which inhibits development a simple two layer diagnostic balance model is used to provide an alternate explanation of the effect of shear when the upper layer wind in the vortex environment differs from that in the lower layer the potential vorticity pv pattern associated with the vortex circulation becomes tilted in the vertical the balanced mass field associated with the tilted pv pattern requires an increased midlevel temperature perturbation near the vortex center it is hypothesized that this midlevel warming reduces the convective activity and inhibits the storm development previous studies have shown that diabatic heating near the storm center acts to reduce the vertical tilt of the vortex circulation these studies have also shown that there is an adiabatic process that acts to redu

seismotectonics of the himalayan collision zone geometry of the underthrusting indian plate beneath the himalaya fault plane solutions and well determined focal depths of medium sized earthquakes topography and landsat imagery in conjunction with seismicity maps cross sections and available geological information are used to investigate the present tectonics of the himalayan continental collision zone most of the accurately located epicenters of events along the himalayan arc 78 e 95 e that occurred between 1961 and 1981 are concentrated in a narrow zone about 50 km wide lying between the northerly dipping main boundary mbt and main central mct thrusts most of these events are located just south of the mct though the epicenters of the events are in general well located their depths as determined by teleseismic travel time data are very unreliable events with accurately determined depths obtained from identification of surface reflected phases define a simple planar zone from about 10 km and 20 km depth with an apparent dip of about 15 this result is all the more remarkable considering that the events used were located along about an 1800 km length of the himalyan arc except for one all available focal mechanisms of events within this zone indicate shallow 30 north dipping thrusts this shallow north dipping zone apparently defines a part of the detachment that separates the underthrusting indian plate from the lesser himalayan crustal block the spatial extent and the geometry of this interplate thrust zone strongly indicate that the mbt and nearby subsidiary surface and blind thrusts rather than the mct are currently the most active structures of the himalayan arc we suggest that the great himalayan earthquakes m 8 occur along the same detachment surface as defined by the thrust type medium sized events events located to the south of the mbt and beneath the ganges foredeep show normal faulting with t axes perpendicular to the himalayan trend the above results suggest that the indian continental plate is underthrusting the himalayan crustal blocks in a relatively coherent and simple geometry and that this geometry is not much different from that observed along oceanic subduction zones the november 19 1980 earthquake that occurred near the mct near 88 5 e shows a predominantly strike slip focal mechanism one of the nodal planes of this mechanism is transverse to the himalayan structural grain and moreover this plane has a trend similar to that of the recently mapped yadong gulu rift in the tethyan himalaya and in southern tibet just northeast of the earthquake we interpret this predominantly left lateral strike slip mechanism to indicate a possible genetic relationship between transverse structural features in the underthrusting indian plate the kishangang basement fault and the upper himalayan blocks and tibet

boundary layer structure and dynamics in outer hurricane rainbands part i mesoscale rainfall and kinematic structure abstract results of hurricane boundary layer experiments conducted in outer rainbands of hurricanes josephine 1984 and earl 1986 are presented comparisons of precipitation and kinematic structures in these storms and in hurricane floyd 1981 indicate that principal rainbands have common characteristic mesoscale and convective scale features in the boundary layer the two dimensional mesoscale structure suggests that these rainbands are made up of a linear aggregate of cellular reflectivity elements on the inner upshear side of the band and stratiform rain on the outer downshear side the bands are oriented perpendicular to the shear above the boundary layer and cells move downband at about 85 of the density weighted mean wind speed of the 0 2 6 km layer the boundary layer wind field is strongly influenced by the rainband with alongband and crossband wind maxima located on the outer side of the band axis and minima 4 8 km to the inner side maximum crossband convergence and cyclonic shear vor

a study of the interaction between typhoon francisco 2013 and a cold core eddy part i rapid weakening abstracttyphoon francisco 2013 experienced unusually rapid weakening rw with its maximum surface wind decreasing by 45 kt 1 kt 0 51 m s 1 over 24 h as measured from the satellite derived ad

mesoscale and convective structure of a hurricane rainband abstract the mesoscale thermodynamic kinematic and radar structure of a hurricane floyd rainband observed on 7 september 1981 is presented data are from 26 aircraft passes through the rainband from 150 to 6400 m a composite technique which presents rainband structure as a function of distance from the storm circulation center reveals inflow from the outer edge of the band and a partial barrier to this flow below 3 km in the direction parallel to rainband orientation radar reveals cellular reflectivity structure on the upwind and central portions of the rainband the frequency of cellular precipitation decreases in favor of stratiform precipitation further downwind as the band spirals gradually towards the eyewall in the radial direction a decrease of 12 k in e is observed across the rainband in the subcloud layer convective scale up and downdrafts that are associated with cellular reflectivity structure are hypothesized to be responsible for the thermodynamic modification of the cloud and subc

kinematic structure of convective scale elements in the rainbands of hurricanes katrina and rita 2005 1 airborne doppler radar data collected during the hurricane rainband and intensity change experiment rainex show the convective scale air motions embedded in the principal rainbands of hurricanes katrina and rita these embedded convective cells have overturning updrafts and low level downdrafts originating at 2 4 km that enter the rainband on its radially outward side and cross over each other within the rainband as well as a strong downdraft emanating from upper levels 6 km on the radially inward side these vertical motion structures repeat from one convective cell to another along each rainband the resulting net vertical mass transport is upward in the upwind portion of the band and greatest in the middle sector of the principal rainband where the updraft motions contribute generally to an increase of potential vorticity below the 3 4 km level because the convective cells in the middle sector are systematically located radially just inside the secondary horizontal wind maximum shwm the local increase in vorticity implied by the convective mass transport is manifest locally as an increase in the strength of the shwm at midlevels 4 km the overturning updrafts of the convective cells tilt stretch and vertically transport vorticity such that the convergence of the vertical flux of vorticity strengthens the vorticity anomaly associated with the shwm this process could strengthen the shwm by several meters per second per hour and may explain how high wave number convective scale features can influence a low wave number feature such as the principal rainband and subsequently influence the primary vortex

numerical simulation of hurricane bonnie 1998 part i eyewall evolution and intensity changes abstract in this study a 5 day explicit simulation of hurricane bonnie 1998 is performed using the fifth generation pennsylvania state university national center for atmospheric research mesoscale model mm5 with the finest grid length of 4 km the initial mass wind and moisture fields of the hurricane vortex are retrieved from the advanced microwave sounding unit a amsu a satellite measurements and the sea surface temperature sst is updated daily it is shown that the simulated track is within 3 latitude longitude of the best track at the end of the 5 day integration but with the landfalling point close to the observed the model also reproduces reasonably well the hurricane intensity and intensity changes asymmetries in cloud and precipitation as well as the vertical structures of dynamic and thermodynamic fields in the eye and eyewall it is shown that the storm deepens markedly in the first 2 days during which period its environmental vertical shear increases substantially it is found

monsoonal influence on typhoon morakot 2009 part ii numerical study abstractin the second part of this study numerical experiments are conducted to investigate the influences of multi time scale monsoonal flows on the track change of typhoon morakot 2009 while the control simulation captures the slowing and northward deflections in the vicinity of taiwan island the highly asymmetric rainfall structure and the associated rainfall pattern sensitivity experiments suggest that the westward movement prior to the landfall on taiwan and the subsequent northward shifts in the vicinity of taiwan were closely associated with the interaction between morakot and multi time scale monsoonal flows prior to the landfall on taiwan morakot moved westward directly toward taiwan because of a synoptic wave train like pattern which consisted of goni over mainland china morakot and a cyclone over the western north pacific with an anticyclone to the west of morakot numerical simulation suggests that strong northerly winds between morakot and the anticyclone reduced the northward stee

sudden tropical cyclone track changes over the western north pacific a composite study abstracttropical cyclones tcs over the western north pacific wnp are usually embedded in the multitime scale summer monsoon circulation and occasionally experience sudden track changes which are currently a challenge in tc forecasting a composite analysis of 15 sudden north turning cases and 14 west turning cases that occurred during the period 2000 10 was conducted with a focus on influences of low frequency monsoon circulations it is found that tcs in the two specific categories of track changes are embedded in a monsoon gyre of about 2500 km in diameter on the quasi biweekly oscillation qbw time scale which is also embedded in a larger scale cyclonic gyre or monsoon trough on the madden julian oscillation mjo time scale the two types of track changes are closely associated with interaction between low frequency and synoptic flows two different types of asymmetric flow patterns are identified on the synoptic time scale in the vicinity of these tcs in the north turning case enhanced winds

a statistical analysis of the effects of vertical wind shear on tropical cyclone intensity change over the western north pacific abstractthe effect of vertical wind shear vws between different pressure levels on tc intensity change is statistically analyzed based on the best track data of tropical cyclones tcs in the western north pacific wnp from the joint typhoon warning center jtwc and the ecmwf interim reanalysis era interim data during 1981 2013 results show that the commonly used vws measure between 200 and 850 hpa is less representative of the attenuating deep layer shear effect than that between 300 and 1000 hpa moreover the authors find that the low level shear between 850 or 700 and 1000 hpa is more negatively correlated with tc intensity change than any deep layer shear during the active typhoon season whereas deep layer shear turns out to be more influential than low level shear during the remaining less active seasons further analysis covering all seasons exhibits that a tc has a better chance to intensify than to decay when the deep layer shear is lower than 7 9 m s 1 and the low level shear is below

intensity and structure changes during hurricane eyewall replacement cycles abstracta flight level aircraft dataset consisting of 79 atlantic basin hurricanes from 1977 to 2007 was used to develop an unprecedented climatology of inner core intensity and structure changes associated with eyewall replacement cycles ercs during an erc the inner core structure was found to undergo dramatic changes that result in an intensity oscillation and rapid broadening of the wind field concentrated temporal sampling by reconnaissance aircraft in 14 of the 79 hurricanes captured virtually the entire evolution of 24 erc events the analysis of this large dataset extends the phenomenological paradigm of ercs described in previous observational case studies by identifying and exploring three distinct phases of ercs intensification weakening and reintensification in general hurricanes intensify sometimes rapidly when outer wind maxima are first encountered by aircraft the mean locations of the inner and outer wind maximum at the start of an erc are 35 and 106 km from storm center respe

hurricane maximum intensity past and present hurricane intensity forecasting has lagged far behind the forecasting of hurricane track in an effort to improve the understanding of the hurricane intensity dilemma several attempts have been made to compute an upper bound on the intensity of tropical cyclones this paper investigates the strides made into determining the maximum intensity of hurricanes concentrating on the most recent attempts to understand the maximum intensity problem the theories of holland and emanuel are reviewed with the objective of assessing their validity in real tropical cyclones each theory is then tested using both observations and the axisymmetric hurricane numerical models of ooyama and emanuel it is found that ambient convective instability plays a minor role in the determination of the maximum intensity and that the emanuel model is the closest to providing a useful calculation of maximum intensity several shortcomings are revealed in emanuel s theory however showing the need for more basic research on the axisymmetric and asymmetric dynamics of hurricanes as an illustration of the importance of asymmetric vorticity dynamics in the determination of a hurricane s maximum intensity it is shown using ooyama s hurricane model that the maximum intensity of a tropical cyclone may be diminished by convectively generated vorticity anomolies excited outside the primary eyewall the vorticity anomolies are parameterized by adding a concentric ring of vorticity outside the primary eyewall that acts to cut off its supply of angular momentum and moist enthalpy it is suggested that the generation of vorticity rings or bands outside the primary eyewall is a major reason why tropical cyclones fail to attain their maximum intensity even in an otherwise favorable environment the upshot of this work points to the need for obtaining a more complete understanding of asymmetric vorticity processes in hurricanes and their coupling to the boundary layer and convection

a block model of distributed deformation by faulting it is clear from palaeomagnetic evidence that large and hitherto unexpected rotations about a vertical axis are common in regions of distributed continental deformation we propose a simple two dimensional model to illustrate how fault movement and block rotation within a zone of distributed deformation may be related to the relative motion of the rigid plates that bound the zone one surprizing feature of this model is that the component of strike slip motion on the faults within the deforming zone is in the opposite sense to the strike slip component across the zone as a whole thus slip vectors within the zone are not the same as that between the bounding rigid plates in contrast to deformation at oceanic plate boundaries examples of active fault geometries similar to those of our model can be seen in greece iran and the western usa

interactions between typhoon megi 2010 and a low frequency monsoon gyre abstractthe arw model is used to investigate the sharp northward turn of super typhoon megi 2010 after it moved westward and crossed the philippines the ncep analyzed fields during this period are separated into a slowly varying background flow component a 10 60 day low frequency component representing the monsoon gyre and a 10 day high pass filtered component representing megi and other synoptic scale motion it appears that the low frequency 10 60 day monsoon gyre interacted with megi and affected its track to investigate the effect of the low frequency mode on megi numerical experiments were designed in the control experiment the total fields of the analysis are retained in the initial and boundary conditions and the model is able to simulate megi s sharp northward turn in the second experiment the 10 60 day monsoon gyre mode is removed from the initial and lateral boundary fields and megi moves westward and slightly northwestward without turning north tracks of the relative positions b

monsoonal influence on typhoon morakot 2009 part i observational analysis abstracttyphoon morakot made landfall on taiwan with a record rainfall of 3031 5 mm during 6 13 august 2009 while previous studies have emphasized the influence of southwesterly winds associated with intraseasonal oscillations and monsoon surges on moisture supply the interaction between morakot and low frequency monsoon flows and the resulting influence on the slow movement and asymmetric precipitation structure of the typhoon were examined observationally embedded in multi time scale monsoonal flows morakot generally moved westward prior to its landfall on taiwan and underwent a coalescence process first with a cyclonic gyre on the quasi biweekly oscillation time scale and then with a cyclonic gyre on the madden julian oscillation time scale the coalescence enhanced the synoptic scale southwesterly winds of morakot and thus decreased its westward movement and turned the track northward leading to an unusually long residence time in the vicinity of taiwan the resulting slow movement and collocation

tropical cyclone motion and evolution in vertical shear abstract the motion and the evolution of tropical cyclone like vortices in an environmental flow with vertical shear are investigated using a baroclinic primitive equation model the study focuses on the fundamental dynamics of a baroclinic vortex in vertical shear the influence of vortex structure and the role of diabatic heating the results show that the initial response of the vortex to the vertical shear is to tilt downshear as soon as the tilt develops the upper level anticyclonic and lower level cyclonic circulations begin to interact with each other as a result of these interactions the tilted axis of the vortex reaches a stable state after an initial adjustment which varies with the structure of the vortex its environmental flow shear and the cumulus convective heating the motion of an adiabatic vortex in vertical shear is controlled by both the steering of the environmental flow and vertical coupling mechanisms most of the vortices move with the environmental flow at about 650 hpa or

on the initial development of asymmetric vertical motion and horizontal relative flow in a mature tropical cyclone embedded in environmental vertical shear in this paper the authors focus on the initial development of asymmetric vertical motion and horizontal relative flow in a mature tropical cyclone tc embedded in an environmental vertical shear the fully compressible nonhydrostatic tc model was used to perform a series of numerical experiments with a mature tc with different intensities embedded in shear with different magnitudes and different vertical profiles results show that the development of both the wavenumber 1 asymmetric vertical motion and horizontal relative flow for a tc embedded in vertical shear is quite sensitive to both the magnitude and the vertical profile of wind shear as well as the intensity of the tc itself diagnostic analysis based on the quasi balanced potential vorticity inversion indicates that the balanced dynamics can only explain a small portion of the asymmetric vertical motion and relative flow the unbalanced processes contribute predominantly to the developmentoftheasymmetricflowinthesimulations itisshownthattheeyewallofamaturetcplaysarole somewhat like a material cylinder embedded in an environmental flow with vertical shear the interaction between the environmental shear and the eyewall produces vertical gradient of convergence divergence of horizontal wind around the lateral edge of the eyewall this forces much stronger asymmetric vertical motion than the balanced processes do and drives significant horizontal relative divergent flow over the storm core which opposes vertical shear and reduces the vertical tilt of the storm axis in addition the budget analysis for the axisymmetric tangential wind demonstrates that the asymmetric flow plays a dominant role in weakening the storm top down

concentric eye walls secondary wind maxima and the evolution of the hurricane vortex abstract research aircraft observations in recent hurricanes support the model of shapiro and willoughby 1982 for the tropical cyclone s response to circularly symmetric convective heat sources convective rings in both nature and the numerical model the tangential wind commonly increases rapidly just inside the radius of maximum wind and decreases inside the eye near the central axis of the vortex thus both secondary outer wind maxima and eyewall wind maxima often contract as they intensify this response is independent of the horizontal spatial scale of the maximum an outer maximum is frequently observed to constrict about a pre existing eye and replace it this chain of events often coincides with a weakening or at least a pause in intensification of the vortex as a whole the concentric eye phenomenon is a common but by no means universal feature of tropical cyclones it is most frequently observed in intense highly symmetric systems

hurricane intensity and eyewall replacement observations made during the historic 2005 hurricane season document a case of eyewall replacement clouds outside the hurricane eyewall coalesce to form a new eyewall at a greater radius from the storm center and the old eyewall dies the winds in the new eyewall are initially weaker than those in the original eyewall but as the new eyewall contracts the storm reintensifies understanding this replacement mechanism is vital to forecasting variations in hurricane intensity processes in the moat region between the new and old eyewall have been particularly unclear aircraft data now show that the moat becomes dynamically similar to the eye and thus is converted into a region inimical to survival of the inner eyewall we suggest that targeting aircraft to key parts of the storm to gain crucial input to high resolution numerical models can lead to improvements in forecasting hurricane intensity

low level thermodynamic kinematic and reflectivity fields of hurricane guillermo 1997 during rapid intensification abstract from 0600 utc 2 august to 1200 utc 3 august hurricane guillermo 1997 deepened by 54 hpa over the eastern north pacific ocean easily exceeding the thresholds that define rapid intensification ri the noaa wp 3ds observed a portion of this ri with similar two aircraft missions on consecutive days the aircraft jettisoned 70 successful global positioning system gps dropwindsondes or gps sondes which reveal how conditions in the lower troposphere on the octant to quadrant scale evolved within 250 km of the eye reflectivity fields demonstrate that the deepening is correlated with a spiraling in of the northern eyewall that reduces the eye diameter by 10 km this behavior contrasts the more uniform contraction witnessed during eyewall replacement cycles mixing between the lower eye and eyewall as detailed by other investigators appears to have triggered the reduction in the eye diameter after ri the eyewall remains asymmetrical with the tallest echo tops and heaviest rain rates located o

faulting associated with large earthquakes and the average rate of deformation in central and eastern asia we determine approximate average rates of deformation in portions of eastern and central asia for the last 80 years these rates are based on estimates of source dimensions average displacements seismic moments and orientations of faults of all large earthquakes m 7 5 and as many other major earthquakes m 7 0 as possible in asia since 1900 a major part of this study is the compilation of these data for separate parts of asia we combine seismic moment tensors to estimate the average rotational strain or deformation tensors for these regions for the last 80 years we estimate that shortening across the tien shan has occurred at 11 mm yr between 5 and 19 mm yr left lateral shear on easterly trending planes in mongolia in northwestern tibet gansu and ningxia and on the xianshuihe fault in western sichuan has been very rapid more than 10 mm yr in each region and apparently as rapid as 40 mm yr in northwestern tibet gansu and ningxia slower rates of a few to 10 mm yr appear to characterize east west extension and conjugate north south shortening of tibet the earthquake history of the himalaya is consistent with rates of underthrusting of more than 10 mm yr but is probably less than the convergence rate of india with eurasia of about 50 mm yr the overall strain field is consistent with a large part of india s penetration into eurasia being absorbed by the extrusion of material out of india s way as a result southeast china moved at about 21 mm yr east southeast with respect to eurasia in the last 80 years with an uncertainty of about a factor of 2 in this estimated rate

earthquake mechanisms in the hellenic trench near crete summary in the hellenic trench south of crete convergence between the southern aegean sea and africa occurs at a rate of at least 60 mm yr 1 previously published first motion fault plane solutions show a variety of different fault orientations and types but are not well constrained furthermore the lack of reliable focal depths for these earthquakes has obscured any simple pattern of deformation that might exist nonetheless the mechanisms of these earthquakes have strongly influenced views of the tectonics in the hellenic trench we have improved estimates of the fault parameters and focal depths for 14 of these earthquakes using long period p and sh waveforms the earthquake mechanisms fall into four groups a normal faults with a n s strike in the over riding material above the subduction zone b low angle thrusts with an e w strike at a depth of about 40 km c high angle reverse faults with the same strike but shallower focal depths than b d events within the suducting lithosphere with approximately e w p axes the thrusting in groups b and c is probably the mechanism by which the sediments of the mediterranean sea underplate and uplift crete these events have slip vectors in the direction 025 12 which represents the convergence direction between crete and africa along the sw facing boundary of the hellenic trench one of the events in group d occurred beneath the mediterranean ridge and involved high angle reverse faulting with a wnw ese p axis almost perpendicular to the direction of shortening deduced from folds at the surface the mediterranean sea floor in this region appears to be in a state of e w compression for reasons that are not clear

monsoonal interactions leading to sudden tropical cyclone track changes abstract sudden poleward track changes of tropical cyclones embedded in monsoon gyres in the western north pacific are documented during these track changes which are generally not well forecast the cyclones are often accompanied by a separate comma shaped area of gale force winds and deep convection along the eastern periphery this monsoon surge is distinct from the tropical cyclone synoptic analyses often reveal a building anticyclone to the east or southeast of the monsoon gyre the hypothesis that the sudden track change is initiated by a binary interaction of the tropical cyclone and monsoon gyre is tested with a nondivergent barotropic model tropical cyclone scale vortices with initial positions within the eastern semicircle of a larger monsoon gyre scale vortex initially coalesce with the monsoon gyre and then exhibit sudden poleward track changes that are similar to the observations during the coalescence phase the large and relatively weak monsoon gyre undergoes a induced dispersion in

vortex rossby waves in a numerically simulated tropical cyclone part ii the role in tropical cyclone structure and intensity changes abstract in part i the author analyzed the asymmetric structure in the inner core of a numerically simulated tropical cyclone and found that the asymmetry near the eyewall in the mid lower troposphere is dominated by wavenumber 1 and 2 vortex rossby waves these waves are found to be well coupled with asymmetries in eyewall convection and thus may play an important role in the life cycle of a tropical cyclone in this paper analyses are extended to include the role of these vortex rossby waves in tropical cyclone structure and intensity changes the waves are found to transport angular momentum from the eyewall to the eye accelerating tangential winds in the eye at the expense of decelerating the tangential wind in the eyewall and thus they play an important role in the inner core dynamics of the tropical cyclone convection in the eyewall is enhanced between the downstream trough and upstream ridge in the vortex rossby waves but suppressed between the downstream ridge and upstream trough this close

large scale environmental parameters associated with tropical cyclone formations in the western north pacific abstract the local environmental conditions associated with 405 tropical cyclone tc formations in the western north pacific during 1990 2001 are examined in this study six large scale parameters are obtained and computed from the ncep reanalyses with 2 5 latitude resolution these include the sea surface temperature 200 850 hpa vertical and meridional zonal shear 500 700 hpa average relative humidity convective available potential energy and 200 hpa divergence it is found that these parameters show quite consistent values in almost all the cases examined and near gaussian distributions are found for them the mean values of these distributions are 28 9 c 3 2 m s 1 2 3 m s 1 61 8 1184 1 j kg 1 and 5 2 10 6 s 1 for the above six domain averaged parameters respectively based on these distributions of values a formation potential area is defined as a location that possesses these environmental parameters all within the thresholds one standard deviation from the mean value found above

rapid weakening of typhoon chan hom 2015 in a monsoon gyre a monsoon gyre is a low frequency cyclonic circulation over the western north pacific which plays important roles in tropical cyclone formation and motion this study shows that the interaction between a monsoon gyre and a tropical cyclone can lead to a sudden weakening of the tropical cyclone through an observational analysis of typhoon chan hom 2015 typhoon chan hom 2015 initially moved westward along 10 n and sharply turned northeastward in the philippine sea at 0000 utc 3 july its intensity decreased by 10 3 m s 1 within 12 hours during the sudden northward turn such a rapid weakening event was failed to predict in all of the operational forecasts it is found that chan hom was coalescing with a large scale monsoon gyre on the intra seasonal 15 30 day time scale while it experienced the sudden track change and rapid intensity weakening the weak and loosely organized convection on the eastern side of the monsoon gyre at 1200 utc 2 july rapidly enhanced into the well organized convection within 6 hours the strong convection maintaining from 1800 utc 2 july to 0600 utc 3 july enhanced inflows outside the radius of 500 km from the tropical cyclone center which prevented the inward transportation of mass and moisture into chan hom leading to the collapsing of the eastern part of the eyewall as a result chan hom underwent the rapid weakening even under a large scale environment favorable for intensification the study suggests that the rapid weakening of a tropical cyclone can result from its interaction with a monsoon gyre

earthquakes on the kazerun line in the zagros mountains of iran strike slip faulting within a fold and thrust belt summary the kazerun line is a transverse valley of about 200 km long that obliquely crosses the regular anticlines of the zagros fold belt in sw iran at its northern end it is a clear fault which can be mapped on the surface anticline axes die out or bend towards this valley but do not cross it six moderate sized earthquakes that occurred close the the kazerun line and within a 25 km area involved right lateral strike slip motion parallel to the strike of the valley they indicate that the kazerun line is the surface expression of a buried strike slip fault slip vectors in these strike slip earthquakes are different from those of neighbouring reverse fault earthquakes suggesting that the kazerun line accommodates some of the shortening between arabia and central iran by an elongation of the zagros mountains parallel to strike the centroid depths and the source dimensions of these earthquakes combined with the lack of seismogenic surface faulting in the zagros suggest to us that all these earthquakes involve faulting in the metamorphic basement beneath the sedimentary cover the sedimentary cover is almost certainly decoupled from the basement by several thick evaporite horizons the seismicity of the kazerun line thus demonstrates how lateral interruptions to the regularity of a fold belt can arise from faulting in the basement and not just from lateral ramps between the thrust sheets that deform the sedimentary cover

a definition for rapid weakening of north atlantic and eastern north pacific tropical cyclones periods of 24 h over water weakening during 1982 2013 for north atlantic nal and eastern north pacific enp tropical cyclones tcs are examined to determine a threshold for rapid weakening rw these periods are defined by consistent weakening while the tc center remained more than 50 km from land weakening thresholds of 25 30 and 35 kt represent the 87th 69th 94th 80th and 97th 89th percentile in the nal enp based on these statistics the 30 kt threshold is chosen to define rw compared to all weakening periods rw events are generally associated with greater 24 h official forecast errors and these errors tend to be overestimates in both basins these events usually occur as the tc crosses a sharp sea surface temperature gradient encounters greater vertical wind shear and entrains drier air these metrics may be useful to forecasters assessing the likelihood of rw