a multilayer model of time dependent deformation following an earthquake on a strike slip fault a multilayer half space model of the earth is used in finite element calculations of time dependent deformation and stress following an earthquake on an infinitely long strike slip fault the model involves shear properties of an elastic upper lithosphere a standard viscoelastic linear solid lower lithosphere a maxwell viscoelastic asthenosphere and an elastic mesosphere time dependent displacements strains and stresses are computed both at the surface of the earth and at depth the analysis includes both systematic variations of fault and layer depths and comparisons with simpler elastic lithosphere over viscoelastic asthenosphere calculations for conditions which may be appropriate for the earth the creep of both the lower lithosphere and the asthenosphere can contribute to the postseismic deformation the magnitude of the deformation is enhanced by a short distance between the bottom of the fault slip zone and the top of the creep layer but is less sensitive to the thickness of the creeping layer furthermore postseismic restressing is increased as the lower lithosphere becomes more viscoelastic but the tendency for the width of the restressed zone to grow with time is retarded

subtropical anticyclones and summer monsoons the summer subtropical circulation in the lower troposphere is characterized by continental monsoon rains and anticyclones over the oceans in winter the subtropical circulation is more strongly dominated by the zonally averaged flow and its interactions with orography here the mechanics of the summer and winter lowertropospheric subtropical circulation are explored through the use of a primitive equation model and comparison with observations by prescribing in the model the heatings associated with several of the world s monsoons it is confirmed that the equatorward portion of each subtropical anticyclone may be viewed as the kelvin wave response to the monsoon heating over the continent to the west a poleward flowing low level jet into a monsoon such as the great plains jet is required for sverdrup vorticity balance this jet effectively closes off the subtropical anticyclone to the east and also transports moisture into the monsoon region the low level jet into north america induced by its monsoon heating is augmented by a remote response to the asian monsoon heating the rossby wave response to the west of subtropical monsoon heating interacting with the midlatitude westerlies produces a region of adiabatic descent it is demonstrated here that a local diabatic enhancement can lead to a strengthening of the descent longitudinal mountain chains act to block the westerly flow and also tend to produce descent in this region below the descent sverdrup vorticity balance implies equatorward flow that closes off the subtropical anticyclone to the west and induces cool upwelling in the ocean through ekman transport feedbacks involving for example sea surface temperatures may further enhance the descent in these regions the conclusion is that the mediterranean type climates of regions such as california and chile may be induced remotely by the monsoon to the east hence it can be argued that the subtropical circulation in summer comprises a set of weakly interacting monsoon systems each involving monsoon rains a low level poleward jet a subtropical anticyclone to the east and descent and equatorward flow to the west in winter it is demonstrated how the nonlinear interaction between the strong zonal mean circulation associated with the winter hadley cell and the mountains can define many of the large scale features of the subtropical circulation the blocking effect of the longitudinal mountain chains is shown to be very important subsequent diabatic effects such as a local diabatic enhancement would appear to be essential for producing the observed amplitude of these features

faulting processes of the 1956 san miguel baja california earthquake sequence body waveform modeling is used to determine the source processes of three large earthquakes magnitude 6 8 6 4 6 3 occurring between february 9 and 15 1956 along the san miguel fault in northern baja california mexico results of the modeling suggest that the mainshock on february 9 was responsible for the 20 km of surface faulting observed during the sequence although previous researchers have suggested a complex rupture history for the mainshock uncertainty estimates of source time function shape indicate single or double source models fit the observed waveforms equally well the february 15 aftershock however appears to have consisted of two events locations and focal mechanisms obtained for the three events suggest that the rupture process may have been controlled by cross faults to the main trace of the san miguel fault the good correlation between source parameter information and the surficial geology geometry of the san miguel fault zone demonstrates the usefulness of waveform modeling studies in unravelling the complexities of historic multi event earthquake sequences

role of indian ocean warming in the development of philippine sea anticyclone during enso 1 the anomalous low level anticyclone near the philippines and suppressed convection over the western pacific associated with the mature warm phase of el nino southern oscillation enso have been suggested as important elements in the interaction between enso and the east asian monsoon we examined the causes of these anomalies in the circulation and convection using a newly developed linear baroclinic model that includes interactive moist processes of the cumulus convection and surface heat fluxes a conventional version of the linear model forced by prescribed heating indicates that the diabatic cooling due to suppressed convection over the maritime continent generates the philippine sea anticyclone from a series of the moist linear model experiments we found that the modest warming of the indian ocean in addition to the strong warming in the central eastern pacific and weak cooling in the western pacific is significant to suppress the convection over the maritime continent observed data also show a coincidence of the development between the philippine sea anticyclone indian ocean warming and the ascending motion over the indian ocean supporting the model results the above results indicate that the atmosphere ocean system in the indian ocean may be one of important factors to improve predictability of the east asian climate during enso

the summer circulation over the eastern mediterranean and the middle east influence of the south asian monsoon the summer circulation over the eastern mediterranean and the middle east emme is dominated by persistent northerly winds etesians whose ventilating effect counteracts the adiabatic warming induced by large scale subsidence the era40 dataset is used to study the vertical distribution of these circulation features which both appear to be reconciled manifestations of the south asian monsoon influence as predicted by past idealized modeling studies in late spring a westward expanding upper level warm structure and subsidence areas are associated with rossby waves excited by the monsoon convection steep sloping isentropes that develop over the emme facilitate further subsidence on the western and northern periphery of the warm structure which is exposed to the midlatitude westerlies the northerly flow and descent over the eastern mediterranean have maxima in july that are strikingly synchronous to the monsoon convection over northern india where the weaker easterly jet favors a stronger rossby wave response and consequent impact on the emme circulation the pronounced emme topography modifies the monsoon induced structure firstly by inducing orographically locked summer anticyclones these enhance the mid and low level northwesterly flow at their eastern flanks leading to distinct subsidence maxima over the eastern mediterranean and iran secondly topography amplifies the subsidence and the northerly flow over the aegean red sea the iraq gulf region and to the east of the caspian sea

viscoelastic coupling model of the san andreas fault along the big bend southern california the big bend segment of the san andreas fault is the 300 km long segment in southern california that strikes about n65 w roughly 25 counterclockwise from the local tangent to the small circle about the pacific north america pole of rotation the broad distribution of deformation of trilateration networks along this segment implies a locking depth of at least 25 km as interpreted by the conventional model of strain accumulation continuous slip on the fault below the locking depth at the rate of relative plate motion whereas the observed seismicity and laboratory data on fault strength suggest that the locking depth should be no greater than 10 to 15 km the discrepancy is explained by the viscoelastic coupling model which accounts for the viscoelastic response of the lower crust thus the broad distribution of deformation observed across the big bend segment can be largely associated with the san andreas fault itself not subsidiary faults distributed throughout the region the working group on california earthquake probabilities 1995 in using geodetic data to estimate the seismic risk in southern california has assumed that strain accumulated off the san andreas fault is released by earthquakes located off the san andreas fault thus they count the san andreas contribution to total seismic moment accumulation more than once leading to an overestimate of the seismicity for magnitude 6 and greater earthquakes in their type c zones

extensional reactivation of an abandoned thrust a bound on shallowing in the brittle regime abstract shallow dip angles 45 suggested by field observations of continental extensional faults are not predicted by classical isotropic mohr coulomb anderson theory earthquake data indicate that normal faults exist in the upper crust with dip angles commonly as shallow as 30 some structural evidence suggests brittle normal faulting with dip angles as shallow as 10 one explanation of the apparent conflict between theory and structural seismic observations is that intrinsically weak shallow dipping pre existing faults are preferentially reactivated any reduction in frictional strength of the pre existing structure below that of surrounding rock increases the likelihood that such structures will be first breaking when extension is initiated enhanced fluid pore pressure on the pre existing fault reduces the effective strength and can further enhance shallow fault reactivation an analytical treatment clarifies the roles of geometry intact pre existing fault strengths and fluid pore pressures frictional strength ratios of 3 or greater could account for extremely shallow normal faults dips 10 20 without consideration of pore pressures in excess of the least principal stress or of principal stress systems rotated away from the gravity vector moderate reduction in friction 3 4 with respect to wall rock can reduce the dip to 30 and can account for shallow normal slip earthquakes

actively evolving microplate formation by oblique collision and sideways motion along strike slip faults an example from the northeastern caribbean plate margin abstract the pattern of folding faulting and late quaternary coral reef uplift rates in western and central hispaniola haiti and dominican republic suggest that the elongate gonave microplate a 190 000 km2 area of the northeastern caribbean plate is in the process of shearing off the caribbean plate and accreting to the north american plate late cenozoic transpression between the southeastern bahama platform and the caribbean plate in hispaniola has inhibited the eastward motion of the northeastern corner of the plate transpression is manifested in western and central hispaniola by the formation of regional scale folds that correspond to present day anticlinal topographic mountain chains continuous with offshore anticlinal ridges areas of most rapid quaternary uplift determined from onland coral reefs 125 ka and younger coincide with the axial traces of these folds offshore data suggest recent folding and faulting of the seafloor onshore reef data do not conclusively require late quaternary folding but demonstrate that tectonic uplift rates of the axial areas of the anticlines decrease from the northwest peninsula of haiti 0 37 mm yr to to the central part of the coast of western haiti 0 19 mm yr to the south central part of western haiti 0 mm yr formation of the 1200 km long enriquillo plantain garden walton fault zone as a bypass strike slip fault has isolated the southern edge of the gonave microplate and is allowing continued unimpeded eastward motion of a smaller caribbean plate past the zone of late neogene convergence and quaternary uplift of coral reefs in hispaniola offshore seismic reflection data from the jamaica passage the marine strait separating jamaica and haiti show that the enriquillo plantain garden fault zone forms a narrow but deep active fault bounded trough beneath the passage the active fault is continuous with active faults mapped onshore in western haiti and eastern jamaica the bathymetric deep is present because the jamaica passage fault segment represents a 50 km wide transtensional left step of the fault trace between haiti and jamaica onshore satellite imagery and field observations suggest that the enriquillo plantain garden fault forms a continuous trace extending from central hispaniola east of lake enriquillo dominican republic to the westernmost end of the southern peninsula of haiti the regional lineament corresponds to a recent fault scarp in quaternary alluvium of the clonard pull apart basin in the central part of the southern peninsula of haiti and suggests that at least this part of the lineament has undergone recent slip calmus 1983 has suggested a total offset of 30 50 km of the enriquillo plantain garden fault zone in the southern peninsula of haiti using the apparent offset of lithologic units seismic reflection data from lake enriquillo document recent deformation of quaternary lake sediments where the lineament crosses the lake leveling of the crest of a late holocene coral reef and associated algal tufa around lake enriquillo demonstrate late holocene vertical movement and tilting in a 1500 m wide zone parallel to the fault trend lateral offset is difficult to show in the enriquillo valley area because of rapid recent sedimentation into the valley the pattern of inactive strike slip faults and fold belts of cenozoic age in cuba and the yucatan basin suggest that two elongate microplates were sheared off the proto caribbean plate and accreted to the north american plate by a similar process in paleocene and eocene times age of terminal deformation in western central and eastern cuba is consistent with southeastward younging and migration of arc collision the similarity of the size and sequence of events in cuba suggests that the process of oblique collision and sideways motion of the plate along a new strike slip fault towards a free face may be an important process of microplate formation and interplate transfer in other areas

new empirical relationships among magnitude rupture length rupture width rupture area and surface displacement source parameters for historical earthquakes worldwide are compiled to develop a series of empirical relationships among moment magnitude m surface rupture length subsurface rupture length downdip rupture width rupture area and maximum and average displacement per event the resulting data base is a significant update of previous compilations and includes the additional source parameters of seismic moment moment magnitude subsurface rupture length downdip rupture width and average surface displacement each source parameter is classified as reliable or unreliable based on our evaluation of the accuracy of individual values only the reliable source parameters are used in the final analyses in comparing source parameters we note the following trends 1 generally the length of rupture at the surface is equal to 75 of the subsurface rupture length however the ratio of surface rupture length to subsurface rupture length increases with magnitude 2 the average surface displacement per event is about one half the maximum surface displacement per event and 3 the average subsurface displacement on the fault plane is less than the maximum surface displacement but more than the average surface displacement thus for most earthquakes in this data base slip on the fault plane at seismogenic depths is manifested by similar displacements at the surface log linear regressions between earthquake magnitude and surface rupture length subsurface rupture length and rupture area are especially well correlated showing standard deviations of 0 25 to 0 35 magnitude units most relationships are not statistically different at a 95 significance level as a function of the style of faulting thus we consider the regressions for all slip types to be appropriate for most applications regressions between magnitude and displacement magnitude and rupture width and between displacement and rupture length are less well correlated and have larger standard deviation than regressions between magnitude and length or area the large number of data points in most of these regressions and their statistical stability suggest that they are unlikely to change significantly in response to additional data separating the data according to extensional and compressional tectonic environments neither provides statistically different results nor improves the statistical significance of the regressions regressions for cases in which earthquake magnitude is either the independent or the dependent parameter can be used to estimate maximum earthquake magnitudes both for surface faults and for subsurface seismic sources such as blind faults and to estimate the expected surface displacement along a fault for a given size earthquake

atmosphere ocean thermal coupling in the north atlantic a positive feedback in this article it is examined whether a positive atmosphere ocean feedback is found over the north atlantic through a series of general circulation model gcm experiments a 60 year integration of an atmospheric gcm agcm coupled with a 50 m deep motionless ocean was conducted the coupled run was compared with two uncoupled runs one with prescribed mid latitude climato logical sea surface temperatures ssts and the other with daily ssts derived from the coupled experiment the uncoupled atmosphere forces the slab ocean to obtain sst responses in these runs consistent with previous studies the coupled atmosphere ocean fields show interannual variances larger than those in the uncoupled runs due to reduction in the local thermal damping patterns of maximum atmosphere ocean covariability show the north atlantic oscillation nao and tripole sst anomalies both in the coupled and uncoupled fields indicating a dominant role of the atmosphere in generating the sst anomalies on the other hand analyses of the temporal variability in the three runs suggest an active role of sst anomalies in determining the polarity of the air sea coupled variability longer than the interannual time scale a combined analysis of forcing sst upper air height and the response sst anomalies in the uncoupled run identified that a patch of positive sst anomalies in the mid latitude band around 40 n effectively excite the positive phase of the nao which in turn reinforces the tripole sst anomalies this relationship was further confirmed by a nine member ensemble agcm experiment forced by the relevant sst anomalies since the forcing and response sst anomaly patterns bear some resemblance these results manifest positive feedback at work in the coupled atmosphere ocean patterns the processes responsible for this positive feedback were elaborated by a series of linear model experiments the local thermal adjustment of the atmosphere to the sst anomalies results in increased precipitation over the gulf stream region associated diabatic heating applied to a linear baroclinic model yields a positive height response to the east which highly influences the southern part of the nao this stationary response in turn induces a northward deflection in the storm track activity leading to an eddy vorticity feedback that tends to force the positive phase of the nao

dislocation model for aseismic crustal deformation at hollister california geodetic observations at many active plate margins reveal relatively steady aseismic motion during the time between major earthquakes we model the aseismic motion by the relative motion between several blocks that suffer frictional resistance in the upper crust frictional drag is represented by uniform dislocation on a fault surface we assume that friction occurs only on the upper brittle zone of each block boundary and that frictionless sliding occurs below this zone using a bayesian inversion procedure we invert geodetic data to determine the parameters of the block and dislocation model parameters to be estimated include the two horizontal components of velocity for each block and the dislocation rate dip angle slip angle and width of each rectangular fault patch for hollister we assume five blocks and nine rectangular fault patches rates of length change on 92 lines observed by trilateration make up the data triangulation leveling very long baseline interferometry satellite ranging and global positioning system data can also be easily included in our model our inversion procedure uses prior estimates of all block and fault parameters based on geological and seismological data the block parameters are estimated from geological observations of fault displacement rates while the widths of the fault patches are estimated from earthquake hypocentral depths we choose prior estimates of the dislocation rate to match observed creep rates the estimated block motion is well resolved by the geodetic data and agrees well with the geological estimates this suggests that the block motion is steady on time scales from 10 years to 1 m y the net motion across the san andreas calaveras fault system is 38 3 mm yr oriented s38 e thus some additional displacement possibly offshore is needed to match the rate of 56 mm yr predicted by plate tectonic models the depth of the transition from frictional to free sliding varies considerably from 0 4 km on the southern calaveras to 11 km on the central san andreas fault two segments of the san andreas north of 36 50 and south of 36 40 have the greatest potential for moderate to large earthquakes

monsoons and the dynamics of deserts the existence of subtropical deserts such as the sahara has often been attributed to the annual mean zonal mean hadley circulation which shows strong descent in the subtropics however the zonal mean hadley circulation shows considerable evolution over the course of the year with very strong subtropical descent during winter but practically no zonal mean subtropical descent during summer when rainfall over the eastern sahara and the mediterranean is least charney 1975 proposed a biosphere albedo feedback mechanism whereby local anthropogenic effects related to over grazing could affect the radiative balance enhancing summertime diabatic descent and leading to desertification of the subtropics in general the present study which uses an idealized model suggests a monsoon desert mechanism for desertification whereby remote diabatic heating in the asian monsoon region can induce a rossby wave pattern to the west integral with the rossby wave solution is a warm thermal structure that interacts with air on the southern flank of the mid latitude westerlies causing it to descend this adiabatic descent is localized over the eastern sahara and mediterranean and over the kyzylkum desert to the south east of the aral sea by the mountains of north africa and south west asia trajectories indicate that the monsoon desert mechanism does not represent a simple walker type overturning cell instead the descending air is seen to be mainly of mid latitude origin it is speculated that the monsoon forced adiabatic descent may result in clear air and therefore a local diabatic enhancement which effectively doubles the strength of descent with this mechanism desertification can be forced by remote changes in monsoon strength rather than by local effects this conclusion is supported by the observed dramatic strengthening of descent over the mediterranean and east sahara during the onset of the asian monsoon and on the longer timescale by relating prehistoric lake levels to milankovitch monsoon forcing the latter may help to explain the perceived discrepancies between the palaeoclimate of the eastern sahara and the strength of a tropic wide monsoon the monsoon desert mechanism may not be confined to the asian monsoon alone and the existence of other monsoon climate regions over the globe may in a similar way explain the observed summertime strengthening of the oceanic sub tropical anticyclones and the existence of western continental deserts and mediterranean type climate regions

seamarc ii mapping of transform faults in the cayman trough caribbean sea seamarc ii maps of the southern wall of the cayman trough between honduras and jamaica show zones of continuous well defined fault lineaments adjacent and parallel to the wall both to the east and west of the cayman spreading axis these lineaments mark the present active traces of transform faults which intersect the southern end of the spreading axis at a triple junction the swan islands transform fault to the west is dominated by two major lineaments that overlap with right stepping sense across a large push up ridge beneath the swan islands the fault zone to the east of the axis named the walton fault is more complex containing multiple fault strands and a large pull apart structure the walton fault links the spreading axis to jamaican and hispaniolan strike slip faults and it defines the southern boundary of a microplate composed of the eastern cayman trough and western hispaniola the presence of this microplate raises questions about the veracity of caribbean plate velocities based primarily on cayman trough opening rates

modeling of postseismic relaxation following the great 1857 earthquake southern california abstract repeated first order triangulation measurements made from 15 monuments in central and southern california are used to explore the structure of the crust and upper mantle beneath southern california as well as to estimate the distribution of slip during the great 1857 earthquake the monuments are divided into two subnetworks with repeated observations covering the respective time intervals from 1884 to 1923 and from 1898 to 1923 the angle changes occurring within these times are modeled as a sum of two contributions postseismic displacements following the 1857 earthquake and plate tectonic loading the postseismic displacements have been calculated using a elastic viscoelastic coupling model that for any fault geometry yields the exact displacements on a spherically stratified earth the southern california crust and upper mantle are modeled as an upper elastic plate underlain by a viscoelastic asthenosphere for several different combinations of structural parameters inversions are performed for the slip distribution of the 1857 earthquake in general the best fits to the data are achieved with a triangular slip distribution an elastic plate thickness of 16 km a crustal thickness of 16 to 33 km and a mantle viscosity of 0 4 to 0 8 10 19 pa s although these inversions identify the best rheological models they lead to observed residuals that are inconsistent with a normally distributed data set a preferred model of slip is constructed that accounts for the budget of total slip during the earthquake cycle and satisfies a normally distributed data set the preferred slip distribution is similar in shape to the mapped surface slip distribution but is greater in amplitude by a factor of 1 5 to 2 in addition the san jacinto fault which has no known surface slip associated with the 1857 earthquake is inferred to have accommodated 1 to 3 m of slip during the 1857 earthquake and appears to be the favored site for tectonic strain accumulation since 1857 inferred fault slip exceeding known surface slip implies either unrecognized secondary faulting or a slip deficit at the surface relative to the slip at depth

a detailed microseismicity study and current stress regime in the peninsular ranges of northern baja california mexico the ojos negros region the nw trending san miguel fault system is one of the most important seismogenic systems in northern baja california and the ojos negros region comprising the ojos negros valley and bordering areas is one of its most active regions within this region are found most of the mapped faults of the system ojos negros tres hermanos most of san miguel and portions of the vallecitos fault which makes this a very important region from the points of view of intraplate tectonics and regional seismic hazard a detailed microseismicity 0 2 m 4 0 survey of the ojos negros region carried out in 1997 one month 13 reftek stations recording at 200 samples sec plus two permanent resnom stations and other less sensitive instruments yielded important results about the fault activity and the stress regime in the region our results are based on 278 hypocenters and 50 focal mechanisms selected from almost 2500 earthquakes recorded at a minimum of four stations the selected database is comprised of good quality local events for which the hypocentral depth can be reliably estimated locations and focal mechanisms were obtained using an improved velocity model sierra97 for this part of the peninsular ranges the hypocenters tend to cluster in space and time with cluster interepicenter separations of the order of the location error 1 km the ojos negros valley as defined by its sedimentary soil is roughly covered by epicenters the tres hermanos fault shows no significant seismicity and the few earthquakes near although not very close to its southern third seem to be associated with seismicity that extends into the valley seismicity associated with the ojos negros fault consists almost exclusively of one large cluster the san miguel fault the most active fault in the area has epicenters within a 6 8 km wide band centered along its mapped trace most focal mechanisms are strike slip with a minor normal component while others are dominantly normal the resulting pattern for the valley indicates a regional extensional regime with the average t axis in the ene wsw direction and p axes distributed along an n s strip with a slight inclination and concentrated near the poles

new kinematic models for pacific north america motion from 3 ma to present i evidence for steady motion and biases in the nuvel 1a model we use velocities derived from 2 4 5 years of continuous gps observations at 21 sites on the pacific and north american plates along with a subset of the nuvel 1a data to examine the steadiness of pacific north america motion since 3 16 ma the transfer of baja california to the pacific plate and the magnitude of biases in the nuvel 1a estimate of pacific north america motion we find that pacific north america motion has remained steady since 3 16 ma but at rates significantly faster than predicted by nuvel 1a in the vicinity of baja california our gps derived model and recent seafloor spreading rates in the southern gulf of california both indicate that the nuvel 1a model underestimates pacific north america rates by 4 2 mm yr 1 steady pacific north america motion since 3 16 myr and increasing seafloor spreading rates since 3 58 myr in the gulf of california imply that pacific north america motion was partitioned between seafloor spreading in the gulf of california and decelerating slip along faults in or offshore from the baja peninsula

relative motion between the caribbean and north american plates and related boundary zone deformation from a decade of gps observations global positioning system gps measurements in 1986 1994 and 1995 at sites in dominican republic puerto rico cuba and grand turk define the velocity of the caribbean plate relative to north america the data show eastward motion of the caribbean plate at a rate of 21 1 mm yr 1 standard error in the vicinity of southern dominican republic a factor of 2 higher than the nuvel 1a plate motion model prediction of 11 3 mm yr independent measurements on san andres island and an euler vector derived from these data also suggest a rate that is much higher than the nuvel 1a model available data combined with simple elastic strain models give the following slip rate estimates for major left lateral faults in hispaniola 1 the north hispaniola fault offshore the north coast of hispaniola 4 3 mm yr 2 the septentrional fault in northern dominican republic 8 3 mm yr and 3 the enriquillo fault in southern dominican republic and haiti 8 4 mm yr the relatively high plate motion rate and fault slip rates suggested by our study combined with evidence for strain accumulation and historical seismicity imply that seismic risk in the region may be higher than previous estimates based on low plate rate low fault slip rate models and the relatively low rate of seismicity over the last century

gravitational viscoelastic postseismic relaxation on a layered spherical earth viscoelastic relaxation of a ductile asthenosphere underlying a purely elastic plate is a strong candidate process for explaining anomalous rates of crustal deformation observed following large earthquakes the nongravitational treatment of pollitz 1992 which is valid on a global scale and includes the effects of compressibility is here extended to permit the calculation of gravitational viscoelastic relaxation for a specified spherically layered viscoelastic rheology following an earthquake in an elastic layer the simple approximations we adopt make the resulting treatment particularly suitable for near field calculations for an asthenosphere with a maxwell rheology the effect of gravitational coupling is manifested only many relaxation times after the earthquake as obtained by previous investigators its effect is generally to speed up the long wavelength component of the relaxation process and attenuate the overall vertical displacement pattern several subtle features common to the relaxation behavior from several different fault types thrust rift and strike slip are identified the effect of gravitational coupling on horizontal displacements is consistent with flexure of the upper elastic plate driven by the corresponding effects on the vertical displacement stress diffusion away from the source region generally exhibits pulse like behavior which is dispersive in both space and time if the asthenosphere is confined to a relatively narrow channel then the dispersion branches governing relaxation are radically altered and stress diffusion effects far from the coseismic rupture zone exhibit a complicated time dependence reflecting the competing tendencies of toroidal and spheroidal mode relaxation

south asian summer monsoon and the eastern mediterranean climate the monsoon desert mechanism in cmip5 simulations abstractdry summers over the eastern mediterranean are characterized by strong descent anchored by long rossby waves which are forced by diabatic heating associated with summer monsoon rainfall over south asia the large scale teleconnection between rising and subsiding air masses is referred to as the monsoon desert mechanism this study evaluates the ability of the phase 5 of the coupled model intercomparison project cmip5 models in representing the physical processes involved in this mechanism an evaluation of statistics between summer climatologies of monsoon diabatic heating and that of vertical velocity over the eastern mediterranean suggests a linear relationship despite large spatial diversity in monsoon heating descent over the mediterranean is coherently located and realistic in intensity to measure the sensitivity of descent to the diversity in the horizontal and vertical distribution of monsoon heating a series of linear atmosphere model experiments are performed it is shown that col

the role of the indian summer monsoon variability on arabian peninsula summer climate this study investigates the influence of the indian summer monsoon ism on the atmospheric circulation over the arabian peninsula ap using the european centre for medium range weather forecasts twentieth century reanalysis era 20c for the period 1901 2010 after describing the summer climate of the ap using various dynamic and thermodynamic parameters we investigate the link between extreme isms and atmospheric circulation over the ap on inter annual time scale analysis of composites of different parameters during extreme monsoon strong and weak years reveals that the ism plays an important role in the summer circulation over the ap and adjoining regions the major noticeable changes in modulating circulation during extreme monsoons are 1 a strengthening of lower tropospheric northerly winds westerly winds passing through the tokar gap shamal winds and the upper tropospheric easterly jet stream during strong ism 2 a northward southward shift of the subtropical westerly jet stream during strong weak monsoon years 3 the development of strong upper level ridge above the surface thermal low during strong ism years which result in a baroclinic structure over the ap and adjoining regions 4 an increase in adiabatic warming and hence aridity over the ap during strong monsoon years caused by intense subsidence of the middle to upper troposphere due to zonal overturning circulation and 5 convective instability during strong monsoon years caused by an intensification of the upward motion over the southern ap furthermore during strong monsoons the availability of excess moisture leads to atmospheric instability which in turn triggers the formation of clouds that lead to more rainfall over the southwestern ap finally the westward propagation of a gill type rossby waves induced by the ism play an important role in the variations of the ap summer climate by enhancing the warm core structure over the ap and through their interaction with the midlatitude westerlies during strong monsoons

the itrf96 realization and its associated velocity field this text intends to present and to analyse the quality of the new 1996 edition of the international terrestrial reference system called the itrf96 the itrf96 represents a key step forward in the activity of the iers terrestrial system determinations a new physical combination model has been developed as well as a new stochastic model for the first time the level of accuracy has reached 1 cm or better in position for about 50 of itrf96 stations and 30 of the stations have their velocities determined free of any aditional tectonic plate model assumption with an uncertainty better than 3 mm yr the itrf96 also provides a more complete solution a new software has been developed which makes available the itrf96 full variance covariance matrix whereas this information was restricted to station positions in the previous itrf94 edition moreover the network coverage is clearly the largest set of globally distributed terrestrial space geodesy stations that have ever been computed 521 stations located among 290 sites in addition station velocities are also determined at a very accurate level allowing possible determination of kinematic plate motion models free of any geological assumption

structural characteristics off miyagi forearc region the japan trench seismogenic zone deduced from a wide angle reflection and refraction study abstract the japan trench subduction zone located east of ne japan has regional variation in seismicity many large earthquakes occurred in the northern part of japan trench but few in the southern part off miyagi region is in the middle of the japan trench where the large earthquakes m 7 with thrust mechanisms have occurred at an interval of about 40 years in two parts inner trench slope and near land a seismic experiment using 36 ocean bottom seismographs obs and a 12 000 cu in airgun array was conducted to determine a detailed 2d velocity structure in the forearc region off miyagi the depth to the moho is 21 km at 115 km from the trench axis and becomes progressively deeper landward the p wave velocity of the mantle wedge is 7 9 8 1 km s which is typical velocity for uppermost mantle without large serpentinization the dip angle of oceanic crust is increased from 5 6 near the trench axis to 23 150 km landward from the trench axis the p wave velocity of the oceanic uppermost mantle is as small as 7 7 km s this low velocity oceanic mantle seems to be caused by not a lateral anisotropy but some subduction process by comparison with the seismicity off miyagi the subduction zone can be divided into four parts 1 seaward of the trench axis the seismicity is low and normal fault type earthquakes occur associated with the destruction of oceanic lithosphere 2 beneath the deformed zone landward of the trench axis the plate boundary is characterized as a stable sliding fault plain in case of earthquakes this zone may be tsunamigenic 3 below forearc crust where p wave velocity is almost 6 km s and larger this zone is the seismogenic zone below inner trench slope which is a plate boundary between the forearc and oceanic crusts 4 below mantle wedge the rupture zones of thrust large earthquakes near land e g 1978 off miyagi earthquake are located beneath the mantle wedge the depth of the rupture zones is 30 50 km below sea level from the comparison the rupture zones of large earthquakes off miyagi are limited in two parts plate boundary between the forearc and oceanic crusts and below mantle wedge this limitation is a rare case for subduction zone although the seismogenic process beneath the mantle wedge is not fully clarified our observation suggests the two possibilities earthquake generation at the plate boundary overridden by the mantle wedge without serpentinization or that in the subducting slab

late cenozoic extension of northeastern baja california mexico the pattern and history of normal faulting in a portion of northeastern baja california strongly suggest that the area developed as a result of east west crustal extension during late cenozoic time geometric and kinematic data strongly suggest that this area developed in concert with the opening of the proto gulf of california and the distension of the basin and range province in addition these data coupled with regional tectonic timing relations preclude the application of an oblique rifting model to this area two intervals of extensional tectonics have affected the region since the early miocene at present it is not known if strain was continuous or discontinous with respect to time the first and most intense period initiated between 17 and 9 m y ago was east west directed as determined from tilt patterns orientation of intra terrane transcurrent faults and fault plane kinematic indicators this deformation was dominated by high angle normal faulting and resulted in the disruption of a region wide low relief erosion surface new patterns of sedimentation were established and controlled by north trending grabens that filled with alluvial fan and marine deposits sporadic silicic eruptions occurred in conjunction with the extension thus allowing resolution of the complex history of tilting that accompanied normal faulting tilting and antithetic faulting resulted from the volume compensation required by the downward flattening of normal faults and by fault related monoclinal flexing and reverse drag effects extension during this interval was complete or substantially reduced by 6 m y b p the second interval of east west extension younger than 6 m y b p has been much less intense than the earlier event yet it seems to have utilized the same structures silicic volcanism also waned during this interval giving way to mafic eruptions related to rifting of the present gulf of california

mechanics of graben formation in crustal rocks a finite element analysis small 1 10 km wide grabens are ubiquitous tectonic structures that have been observed on the surfaces of all the terrestrial planets and satellites in spite of their frequent occurrence there is no fundamental understanding of how they form other than that they are characteristic of extensional terranes this paper examines the mechanics of the initial stages of graben formation and demonstrates that the configuration of a pair of antithetically dipping normal faults a graben is the energetically most favorable fault configuration in elastic brittle rocks subjected to pure extension a corollary to this hypothesis is that the occurrence of synthetic normal faults is indicative of a stress field other than purely extensional or of nonhomogeneous characteristics of the rock the analysis proceeds by computing the stress field in the vicinity of a single initial normal fault using a two dimensional finite element model it is shown that slip on this fault substantially lowers the proximity to failure of the surrounding rocks except for two small regions one near the surface of the downthrown block and the other near the fault tip the region on the downthrown block is located a horizontal distance from the initial fault slightly less than the fault s depth the proximity to failure actually increases here and a secondary fault develops an antithetic secondary fault would link this region with the other failure zone near the fault tip to demonstrate the preference for antithetic secondary faults more rigorously we show that this fault configuration results in a smaller total strain energy than the synthetic configuration in addition a two layer model is used to show that the graben s width is only weakly dependent upon the presence of mechanically distinct layers in the crust both weak over strong and strong over weak configurations are investigated the depth of the initial fault and the thickness of the top layer are varied and the width of the resulting graben is evaluated by computing the distance between the initial fault and the region of highest proximity to failure near the surface this analysis indicates that the depth of the initial fault is the major factor controlling graben width

nonlinear strain buildup and the earthquake cycle on the san andreas fault two contrasting models of the earthquake deformation cycle on strike slip faults predict significant temporal declines in shear strain rate near the fault accompanied by a progressive broadening of the zone of deformation adjacent to it in the thin lithosphere model transient deformation results from flow in the asthenosphere due to stress relaxation following faulting through most or all of the lithosphere for an earth model with a thick elastic lithosphere plate thickness depth of seismic slip transient motions are due to postearthquake aseisrnic slip below the coseismic fault plane data from the san andreas fault indicate a long term temporal decrease in strain rate that persists for at least 30 years and may extend through the entire earthquake cycle observations support a cycle long rate decrease and a temporal spreading of the deformation profile only if movement cycles on the northern and southern locked sections of the fault are basically similar if so the usually lower strain rates and broader deformation zone currently observed on the southern san andreas represent a later evolutionary stage of the northern locked section where a great earthquake is a more recent occurrence although the data allow some extreme models to be discarded no sufficiently strong constraints exist to decide between the thin and thick lithosphere models regardless of the appropriate model the geodetic observations themselves indicate that strain buildup is sufficiently nonlinear to cause significant departures from recurrence estimates based on linear strain accumulation and the time predictable model

postseismic deformation following the 1906 san francisco earthquake we have reevaluated triangulation data from northern california following the 1906 san francisco earthquake thereby increasing the temporal and spatial resolution of postseismic deformation following that event we have calculated uniform shear strain rates and average station velocities at point arena using data from 1906 1907 1929 1930 and 1973 1975 and for the point reyes petaluma arc using data from 1929 1930 1938 1939 and 1960 1961 with the addition of recent geodetic data we infer an effective relaxation time for long term postseismic deformation following the 1906 earthquake of 36 16 years the point arena data are satisfactorily fit with accelerated afterslip at depth along the san andreas fault plane for a 10 km deep 25 km wide afterslip zone the average slip rate between 1906 and 1930 is 11 2 cm yr between 1929 and 1975 it is 4 6 cm yr deformation in the point reyes petaluma arc is clearly asymmetric with respect to the trace of the san andreas fault especially between 1929 and 1939 after inverting for the range of acceptable accelerated deep afterslip and horizontal detachment models a detailed analysis using geologically reasonable geometries revealed that both model types have trouble explaining the spatial variations in the deformation field through time in particular accelerated deep afterslip models cannot reproduce the breadth of the observed deformation field to the northeast of the san andreas fault as a result more complex time varying deformation mechanisms are required to explain the point reyes petaluma arc observations

crustal deformation in great california earthquake cycles periodic crustal deformation associated with repeated strike slip earthquakes is computed for the following model a depth l h extending downward from the earth s surface at a transform boundary between uniform elastic lithospheric plates of thickness h is locked between earthquakes it slips an amount consistent with remote plate velocity vpl after each lapse of earthquake cycle time tcy lower portions of the fault zone at the boundary slip continuously so as to maintain constant resistive shear stress the plates are coupled at their base to a maxwellian viscoelastic asthenosphere through which steady deep seated mantle motions compatible with plate velocity are transmitted to the surface plates the coupling is described approximately through a generalized elsasser model we argue that the model gives a more realistic physical description of tectonic loading including the time dependence of deep slip and crustal stress buildup throughout the earthquake cycle than do simpler kinematic models in which loading is represented as imposed uniform dislocation slip on the fault below the locked zone parameters of the model are chosen to fit seismic and geologic constraints and the apparent time dependence of surface strain rates along presently locked traces of the 1857 and 1906 san andreas ruptures we fix vpl 35 mm yr tcy 160 years and l 9 11 km based on earthquake nucleation depths the geodetic data are then found to be described reasonably within the context of a model that is locally uniform along strike and symmetric about a single san andreas fault strand by lithosphere thickness h 20 30 km and elsasser relaxation time tr 10 16 years we therefore suggest that the asthenosphere appropriate to describe crustal deformation on the earthquake cycle time scale lies in the lower crust and perhaps crust mantle transition zone and has an effective viscosity between about 2 1018 and 1019 pa s depending on the thickness assigned to the asthenospheric layer predictions based on the chosen set of parameters are also consistent with data on variations of contemporary surface strain and displacement rates as a function of distance from the 1857 and 1906 rupture traces although the fit is degraded by asymmetry relative to the fault and by slip on adjacent fault strands

paleomagnetic evidence of localized vertical axis rotation during neogene extension sierra san fermin northeastern baja california mexico paleomagnetic data from sierra san fermin in the gulf of california extensional province indicate that localized clockwise rotations about vertical axes occurred during pliocene through recent extension and dextral shear relative declination discordances in upper miocene and pliocene ash flow tuffs indicate a net clockwise rotation of 30 16 clockwise rotation between 12 5 and 6 ma is statistically insignificant 11 17 structural observations and geochronological data suggest that rotations in this area began post 6 ma comprising uniform sense block rotations oblique divergence associated with extension and dextral slip in the northwest striking boundary between the pacific and north american plates northeast striking sinistral slip faults and north striking normal faults accommodate distributed dextral shear in this area allowing fault blocks to rotate in a clockwise sense a model for oblique divergence predicts 21 km of shear in the direction of relative plate motion and 20 7 km ene directed extension perpendicular to the main gulf escarpment a broad region of northeastern baja california may have undergone similar distributed shear two possible dynamic models may explain this shear in one model rotation accumulates above a deep subhorizontal basal shear zone rotating blocks may extend downward to a detachment beneath the extensional province either a low angle eastward continuation of the san pedro martir fault or to a basal shear surface on top of a subducted remnant of the farallon plate alternatively distributed dextral shear may be the surface manifestation of a deep vertical shear zone linking transform faults in the northern gulf with dextral transpeninsular faults in either case shear may have transferred northward onto faults west of the san andreas fault contributing to late miocene to recent clockwise rotation of the western transverse ranges this shear is not accounted for in the 300 km of dextral slip computed from cross gulf geologic tie points

continuous monitoring of surface deformation at long valley caldera california with gps continuous global positioning system gps measurements at long valley caldera an active volcanic region in east central california have been made on the south side of the resurgent dome since early 1993 a site on the north side of the dome was added in late 1994 special adaptations for autonomous operation in remote regions and enhanced vertical precision were made the data record ongoing volcanic deformation consistent with uplift and expansion of the surface above a shallow magma chamber measurement precisions 1 standard error for absolute position coordinates i e relative to a global reference frame are 3 4 mm north 5 6 mm east and 10 12 mm vertical using 24 hour solutions corresponding velocity uncertainties for a 12 month period are about 2 mm yr in the horizontal components and 3 4 mm yr in the vertical component high precision can also be achieved for relative position coordinates on short 10 km baselines using broadcast ephemerides and observing times as short as 3 hours even when data are processed rapidly on site comparison of baseline length changes across the resurgent dome between the two gps sites and corresponding two color electronic distance measurements indicates similar extension rates within error 2 mm yr once we account for a random walk noise component in both systems that may reflect spurious monument motion both data sets suggest a pause in deformation for a 3 5 month period in mid 1995 when the extension rate across the dome decreased essentially to zero three dimensional positioning data from the two gps stations suggest a depth 5 8 1 6 km and location west side of the resurgent dome of a major inflation center in agreement with other geodetic techniques near the top of a magma chamber inferred from seismic data gps systems similar to those installed at long valley can provide a practical method for near real time monitoring and hazard assessment on many active volcanoes

mobility of continental mantle evidence from postseismic geodetic observations following the 1992 landers earthquake the crust around the rupture zone of the 1992 landers earthquake has continued to deform in the years following the earthquake at rates 3 times greater than pre earthquake rates we use a combination of global positioning system gps and synthetic aperture radar insar data collected during a 3 year epoch following the earthquake in order to investigate postseismic mechanisms responsible for the high transient velocities in order to maximize the potential signal from viscoelastic relaxation we evaluate and model postseismic relaxation following the first few months of documented accelerated deformation the combination of gps and insar data allows us to establish viscoelastic relaxation of the lower crust and upper mantle as the dominant postseismic process and to discriminate among possible viscoelastic models the data particularly require the presence of a highly ductile uppermost mantle beneath the central mojave domain with temperature between the wet and dry basalt solidus this is consistent with independent seismic and geochemical inferences of a regionally warm uppermost mantle further consideration of seismic velocity variations in conjunction with faulting patterns within the mojave desert suggests that the primary faulting characteristics of the mojave desert namely the pervasive late cenozoic deformation within the eastern california shear zone versus the near absence of faults in the western mojave domain are controlled by the rheology of the uppermost mantle

seismic cycle and rheological effects on estimation of present day slip rates for the agua blanca and san miguel vallecitos faults northern baja california mexico 1 geodesy can be used to infer long term fault slip rates assuming a model for crust and upper mantle rheology we examine the sensitivity of fault slip rate estimates to assumed rheology for the agua blanca and san miguel vallecitos faults in northern baja california mexico part of the pacific north america plate boundary zone the agua blanca fault is seismically quiet but offset alluvial fans indicate young activity current seismicity is confined to the nearby san miguel vallecitos fault a small offset fault better aligned with plate motion gps measurements between 1993 and 1998 suggest that both faults are active with a combined slip rate of 4 8 mm yr 1 regardless of rheological model however slip rate estimates for the individual faults are sensitive to assumed rheology elastic half space models yield 2 3 mm yr 1 for the agua blanca fault and somewhat faster rates for the san miguel vallecitos fault 2 4 mm yr 1 with uncertainties of about 1 mm yr 1 models incorporating viscoelastic rheology and seismic cycle effects suggest a faster slip rate for the agua blanca fault 6 1 mm yr 1 and a slower rate for the san miguel vallecitos fault 1 1 mm yr 1 in better agreement with geological data but these rates are sensitive to assumed rheology numerical simulations with a finite element model suggest that for similar rheological and friction conditions slip on the san miguel vallecitos fault should be favored due to better alignment with plate motion long term faulting processes in the larger offset agua blanca fault may have lowered slip resistance allowing accommodation of motion despite misalignment with plate motion index terms 1206 geodesy and gravity crustal movements interplate 8155 1236 geodesy and gravity rheology of the lithosphere and mantle 8160 8107 tectonophysics continental neotectonics keywords fault slip rates and the seismic cycle northern baja california

asthenospheric viscosity and stress diffusion a mechanism to explain correlated earthquakes and surface deformations in ne japan summary a significant correlation is found in both space and time between the intraplate land and interplate sea thrust zone only earthquakes in tohoku ne japan that has persisted since the times of reliably reported events in ad 1600 the correlation peaks at a land lead of about 36 yr with an average correlation distance of 200km with the implication of an average strain migration rate of 5 6 km yr 1 the correlation is highly significant 99 per cent both from formal statistics and from tests of random shuffles of the data additional analysis of the data as a point process confirms the results of the correlation analysis the sharpness of the correlation peak when compared to the individual times of occurrence of the land and sea events suggests a trigger mechanism to explain the correlation the general model ofsubduction rupture rebound is extended to include additional features the buckling of the land plate from the force of the subducting slab and the viscoelastic coupling of the plate to the underlying asthenosphere a buckle produces a high stress region in the continental plate where earthquakes are more prone to occur thus producing the spatial correlation in the data this may also explain the preferred location on land for the smaller modern day seismic events in ne japan the viscoelastic coupling controls the interaction between the land and sea events resulting in the temporal correlation in the data because of viscosity the model equations are diffuse like with strain pulses as solutions thus from the inferred strain migration rate it is possible to estimate asthenospheric viscosity 7 1018pa s using this model a large land shock generates a strain pulse that affects the locked fault at the thrust zone several decades later as the continental plate tends to pull away from the subducting slab the frictional force arising from the overburden pressure is reduced thus unlocking the fault and triggering a sea earthquake the viscoelastic model is also used to explain surface deformations measured by triangulation surveys in japan in 1904 and 1964 horizontal displacements which we believe are surface manifestations of the strain pulse from the large 1896 riku u land shock m 7 5 in ne japan are fit well by the model and provide a viscosity estimate 13 1018 pa s

southern california permanent gps geodetic array spatial filtering of daily positions for estimating coseismic and postseismic displacements induced by the 1992 landers earthquake the june 28 1992 m w 7 3 landers california earthquake was the first earthquake to be surveyed by a continuously operating global positioning system gps array the coordinate time series of seven sites are evaluated for station displacements during an interval of 100 days centered on the day of the earthquake we employ a new spatial filtering technique that removes common mode errors from the coordinate time series this approach provides precise estimates of site specific displacements compared to the cumbersome method of analyzing baselines between pairs of stations all sites indicate significant coseismic horizontal displacements of 5 65 mm with uncertainties of 1 2 mm horizontal displacements are in general agreement with elastic dislocation models in particular for sites closer to the epicenter vertical displacements range from 13 to 7 mm with uncertainties of 2 4 mm the observed vertical displacements in all cases show 5 10 mm more subsidence than expected from geodetic and seismic geologic models significant postseismic horizontal displacements totaling 6 2 mm 10 20 of the coseismic displacement are detected at the three sites closest to the epicenter these displacements are modeled as a short term exponential relaxation with a decay time of 22 10 days superimposed on a longer term linear interseismic trend scaling the observed coseismic and postseismic displacements at one of the sites with the distance to the epicenter provides a measure of site strain which agrees well with the direction and magnitude determined from more precise laser strain meter data the time series do not show any detectable preseismic displacements

twenty first century projected summer mean climate in the mediterranean interpreted through the monsoon desert mechanism the term monsoon desert mechanism indicates the relationship between the diabatic heating associated with the south asian summer monsoon rainfall and the remote response in the western sub tropics where long rossby waves anchor strong descent with high subsidence in cmip5 twenty first century climate scenarios the precipitation over south asia is projected to increase this study investigates how this change could affect the summer climate projections in the mediterranean region in a linear framework the monsoon desert mechanism in the context of climate change would imply that the change in subsidence over the mediterranean should be strongly linked with the changes in south asian monsoon precipitation the steady state solution from a linear model forced with cmip5 model projected precipitation change over south asia shows a broad region of descent in the mediterranean while the results from cmip5 projections differ having increased descent mostly in the western sector but also decreased descent in parts of the eastern sector local changes in circulation particularly the meridional wind promote cold air advection that anchors the descent but the barotropic rossby wave nature of the wind anomalies consisting of alternating northerlies southerlies favors alternating descent ascent locations in fact the local mid tropospheric meridional wind changes have the strongest correlation with the regions where the difference in subsidence is largest there decreased rainfall is mostly balanced by changes in moisture omega and in the horizontal advection of moisture

global positioning system constraints on fault slip rates in southern california and northern baja mexico we use global positioning system gps estimates of horizontal site velocity to constrain slip rates on faults comprising the pacific north america plate boundary in southern california and northern mexico we enlist a simple elastic block model to parameterize the distribution and sum of deformation within and across the plate boundary we estimate a pacific north america relative plate motion rate of 49 3 mm yr one standard deviation consistent with nuvel 1a estimates we are able to resolve robust slip rate estimates for the southernmost san andreas san jacinto and elsinore faults 26 2 9 2 and 6 2 mm yr respectively and for the imperial and cerro prieto faults 35 2 and 42 1 mm yr respectively accounting for about 86 of the total plate motion the remaining 14 appears to be accommodated to the west of these fault systems probably via slip along the san clemente fault and or the san miguel vallecitos rose canyon and newport inglewood fault systems these results are highly consistent with paleoseismic estimates for slip rates implying that off fault strain accumulation within the deforming zone of the plate boundary is largely elastic we estimate that the seismically quiescent southernmost san andreas fault has incurred about 8 2 m of slip deficit over the last few hundred years presumably to be recovered during a future large earthquake

how rigid is the stable interior of the north american plate we analyze data from eight permanent gps stations broadly distributed through the interior of the north american plate and use the resulting velocities to estimate an euler vector describing motion of stable north america as a single rigid plate the site velocities fit the single plate model with a mean residual of 1 3 mm yr the residuals do not appear to reflect post glacial rebound and tests for differential motion between eastern and western north america at the new madrid seismic zone show no resolvable motion within uncertainties the residuals likely reflect observational error and thus our estimate of the stability of the plate interior is likely an upper bound

response of the south asian summer monsoon to global warming mean and synoptic systems abstract recent diagnostics with the geophysical fluid dynamics laboratory climate model version 2 1 gfdl cm2 1 coupled model s twentieth century simulations reveal that this particular model demonstrates skill in capturing the mean and variability associated with the south asian summer monsoon precipitation motivated by this the authors examine the future projections of the mean monsoon and synoptic systems in this model s simulations in which quadrupling of co2 concentrations are imposed in a warmer climate despite a weakened cross equatorial flow the time mean precipitation over peninsular parts of india increases by about 10 15 this paradox is interpreted as follows the increased precipitation over the equatorial western pacific forces an anomalous descending circulation over the eastern equatorial indian ocean the two regions being connected by an overturning mass circulation the spatially well organized anomalous precipitation over the eastern equatorial indian ocean forces twin antic

global positioning system constraints on fault slip rates in the death valley region california and nevada we estimated horizontal velocities at 15 locations in the vicinity of yucca mountain nevada from global positioning system surveys conducted between 1991 and 1996 we used these velocity estimates to infer slip rates on two major quaternary faults within the eastern california shear zone ecsz the hunter mountain and death valley faults the sum of slip rates across the two faults is well determined at 5 1 mm yr 1 between 3 to 5 mm yr of this motion appears to be accommodated along the death valley fault implying 30 50 m of strain accumulation over the next 10 000 yr if so there is potential for 5 to 10 m w 6 5 7 5 earthquakes during this period a finding consistent with paleoseismological studies of the fault zone yucca mountain which lies 50 km east of the ecsz is the proposed location for the disposal of high level nuclear waste in the united states