landslide susceptibility mapping at golestan province iran a comparison between frequency ratio dempster shafer and weights of evidence models abstract the purpose of the present study is to investigate the landslide susceptibility mapping using three statistical models such as frequency ratio dempster shafer and weights of evidence at southern part of golestan province at first landslide locations were identified from the interpretation of aerial photographs and field surveys a total of 392 landslides were mapped in gis out of which 275 70 locations were chosen for the modeling purpose and the remaining 118 30 cases were used for the model validation then layers of the landslide conditioning factors were prepared the relationship between the conditioning factors and the landslides were calculated using three models for verification the results were compared with landslides which were not used during the training of the models subsequently the roc receiver operating characteristic curves and area under the curves auc for three landslide susceptibility maps were constructed and the areas under curves were assessed for validation purpose the validation results showed that the area under the curve for frequency ratio dempster shafer and weights of evidence models are 0 8013 80 13 0 7832 78 32 and 0 7460 74 60 with prediction accuracy 0 7516 75 0 7396 73 and 0 6998 69 respectively the results revealed that frequency ratio model has higher auc than the other models in general all the three models produced reasonable accuracy the resultant maps would be useful for general land use planning

the seismic cycle in the area of the 2011 mw9 0 tohoku oki earthquake we model seismic and aseismic slip on the japan megathrust in the area of the m w9 0 2011 tohoku oki earthquake based on daily time series from 400 gps stations of the geonet network and campaign measurements of six sea floor displacements the coseismic and postseismic slip distributions are inverted simultaneously using principal component analysis based inversion method pcaim exploring a wide range of boundary conditions and regularization constraints we found the coseismic slip distribution to be quite compact with a peak slip between 30 and 50 m near the trench our model shows deep afterslip fringing the downdip edge of the coseismic rupture but also a dominant zone of shallow afterslip afterslip over the first 279 days following the main shock represents about 40 of the coseismic moment we compare the coseismic and postseismic models with an interseismic coupling model derived from inland and sea bottom measurements determined in a self consistent manner assuming that seismic and aseismic slip had to match the long term slip rate along the megathrust the recurrence time of m w9 0 earthquakes is estimated to 100 300 years while historical and paleotsunami records suggest a return period more of the order of 1000 years the discrepancy is smaller if the shallower portion of the megathrust is assumed to produce both aseismic slip as the afterslip model suggests and seismic slip during occasional large tsunamigenic earthquakes

the 2013 mw 7 7 balochistan earthquake seismic potential of an accretionary wedge great earthquakes rarely occur within active accretionary prisms despite the intense long term deformation associated with the formation of these geologic structures this paucity of earthquakes is often attributed to partitioning of deformation across multiple structures as well as aseismic deformation within and at the base of the prism davis et al 1983 we use teleseismic data and satellite optical and radar imaging of the 2013 m w 7 7 earthquake that occurred on the southeastern edge of the makran plate boundary zone to study this unexpected earthquake we first compute a multiple point source solution from w phase waveforms to estimate fault geometry and rupture duration and timing we then derive the distribution of subsurface fault slip from geodetic coseismic offsets we sample for the slip posterior probability density function using a bayesian approach including a full description of the data covariance and accounting for errors in the elastic structure of the crust the rupture nucleated on a subvertical segment branching out of the chaman fault system and grew into a major earthquake along a 50 north dipping thrust fault with significant along strike curvature fault slip propagated at an average speed of 3 0 km s for about 180 km and is concentrated in the top 10 km with no displacement on the underlying decollement this earthquake does not exhibit significant slip deficit near the surface nor is there significant segmentation of the rupture we propose that complex interaction between the subduction accommodating the arabia eurasia convergence to the south and the ornach nal fault plate boundary between india and eurasia resulted in the significant strain gradient observed prior to this earthquake convergence in this region is accommodated both along the subduction megathrust and as internal deformation of the accretionary wedge

thirty five year creep rates for the creeping segment of the san andreas fault and the effects of the 2004 parkfield earthquake constraints from alignment arrays continuous global positioning system and creepmeters we present results from differential global positioning system gps surveys of seven alignment arrays and four continuous gps sites along the creeping segment of the san andreas fault surveys of four alignment arrays from the central creeping segment yield 33 to 36 year average minimum slip rates of 21 26 mm yr these rates are consistent with previous alignment array surveys spanning a 10 year period and with rates determined by creepmeters indicating approximate steady state creep along the central creeping segment for at least 35 years motion between continuous gps sites that span the central creeping segment is 28 2 0 5 mm yr for two sites that are 1 km apart and 33 6 1 mm yr for two sites that are 70 km apart slip rates therefore increase with distance from the creeping segment of the san andreas fault all rates reported here are significantly slower than the 39 2 mm yr rate predicted for motion between the sierra nevada great valley block and the pacific plate repeat surveys of three alignment arrays following the 2004 parkfield earthquake demonstrate that its coseismic and short term postseismic offsets decrease rapidly with distance from the epicenter from 150 mm to 15 mm to 5 mm at respective distances of 9 36 and 54 km to the northwest continuous gps data confirm that little coseismic and postseismic slip occurred along the central creeping segment geodetic and geologic slip rates are compared and different models for the accommodation of transcurrent deformation across the creeping segment are discussed

scale invariance in the spatial development of landslides in the umbria region italy understanding the spatial distribution of mass movements is a major issue in the management and forecasting of landslide risk in this context the present study examines the most widespread types of landslide in the umbria region central italy that is slides and flows in order to establish if it is possible to identify a well defined structure in their spatial pattern by using the landslide inventory map available for the area and by resorting to the principles of fractal theory the scaling properties of the landslide sample were investigated the application of the box counting algorithm to the maps of landslide triggering points and landslide areas allowed for the identification of a clear scale invariant structure two distinct types of fractal behaviour were recognized separated by a scale value of 1 km and characterized by capacity dimensions of 1 35 and 1 76 in the ranges of 25 m 1 km and 1 16 km respectively the comparison between the scaling exponents obtained from a map of points and one of areas and the elaboration of the cumulative frequency distributions of landslide areas supported the interpretation of this result the higher capacity dimension describes the spatial distribution of landslides in the umbria region while the lower contains additional information about their geometries suggesting that the latter also possess scaling properties based on the finding of two different types of behaviour of landslides in space the hypothesis is discussed that the contribution of each causal factor i e predisposing and triggering factors to the occurrence of landslide events and to their spatial development could be different in the two scale ranges identified depending on its spatial variability at local and regional scale according to this hypothesis factors with high local variability i e topographic attributes would mainly affect the assortment of landslide geometries while those with high regional variability e g rainfalls and lithology would mainly affect the pattern of the landslides

under the hood of the earthquake machine toward predictive modeling of the seismic cycle advances in observational laboratory and modeling techniques open the way to the development of physical models of the seismic cycle with potentially predictive power to explore that possibility we developed an integrative and fully dynamic model of the parkfield segment of the san andreas fault the model succeeds in reproducing a realistic earthquake sequence of irregular moment magnitude m w 6 0 main shocks including events similar to the ones in 1966 and 2004 and provides an excellent match for the detailed interseismic coseismic and postseismic observations collected along this fault during the most recent earthquake cycle such calibrated physical models provide new ways to assess seismic hazards and forecast seismicity response to perturbations of natural or anthropogenic origins

the 1989 loma prieta earthquake imaged from inversion of geodetic data we invert geodetic measurements of coseismic deformation from the 1989 ms7 1 loma prieta earthquake to determine the geometry of the fault and the distribution of slip on the fault plane the data include electronic distance measurements global positioning system and very long baseline interferometry vectors and elevation changes derived from spirit leveling the fault is modeled as a rectangular dislocation surface in a homogeneous elastic half space first we assume that the slip on the fault is uniform and estimate the position orientation and size of the fault plane using a nonlinear quasi newton algorithm the best fitting dislocation strikes n48 4 w and dips 76 9 sw consistent with the trend of the aftershock zone and moment tensor solutions bootstrap resampling of the data is used to graphically illustrate the uncertainty in the location of the rupture plane the 95 confidence envelope overlaps the aftershock zone arguing that there is not a significant discrepancy between the geodetic data and the aftershock locations second we estimate the slip distribution using the best fitting uniform slip fault orientation but increase the fault length to 40 km and the downdip width to 18 km the fault is divided into 162 subfaults 18 along strike and 9 along dip each subfault is allowed to have constant right lateral and reverse components of slip we then solve for the slip on each subfault that minimizes a linear combination of the norm of the weighted data residual and the roughness of the slip distribution the smoothing parameter which determines the relative weight put on fitting the data versus smoothing the slip distribution is chosen by cross validation simulations indicate that cross validation estimates of the smoothing parameter are nearly optimal the preferred slip distribution is very heterogeneous with maximum strike slip and dip slip of about 5 and 8 m respectively located roughly 10 km north of the hypocenter there is insignificant dip slip in the southeastern most part of the fault causing the rake to vary from nearly pure right lateral in the southeast to oblique right reverse in the northwest the change in rake is consistent with a uniform stress field if the fault dip increases by about 10 toward the southeast as indicated by the aftershock locations there was little slip above 4 km depth consistent with the observation that there was little if any surface rupture

aseismic slip and seismogenic coupling along the central san andreas fault we use high resolution synthetic aperture radar and gps derived observations of surface displacements to derive the first probabilistic estimates of fault coupling along the creeping section of the san andreas fault in between the terminations of the 1857 and 1906 magnitude 7 9 earthquakes using a fully bayesian approach enables unequaled resolution and allows us to infer a high probability of significant fault locking along the creeping section the inferred discreet locked asperities are consistent with evidence for magnitude 6 earthquakes over the past century in this area and may be associated with the initiation phase of the 1857 earthquake as creeping segments may be related to the initiation and termination of seismic ruptures such distribution of locked and creeping asperities highlights the central role of the creeping section on the occurrence of major earthquakes along the san andreas fault

three dimensional hydrodynamic and salinity transport modelling of danshuei river estuarine system and adjacent coastal sea taiwan a three dimensional time dependent hydrodynamic and salinity model was applied to the danshuei river estuarine system and adjacent coastal sea in taiwan the model forcing functions consist of tidal elevations along the open boundary and freshwater flows from the main stem and tributaries in the danshuei river system the bottom roughness height was calibrated and verified with model simulation of barotropic flow and the turbulent diffusivities were calibrated through comparison of time series of salinity distributions the overall model verification was achieved with comparisons of residual current and salinity distribution the model simulation results are in qualitative agreement with the available field data the model was then used to investigate the tidal current residual current and salinity patterns under the low freshwater flow condition in the modelling domain the results reveal that the extensive intrusion of saline water imposes a significant baroclinic forcing and induces a strong residual circulation in the estuary the downriver net velocity in the upper layer increases seaward despite the enlargement of the river cross section in that direction strong residual circulation can be found near the kuan du station this may be the result of the deep bathymetric features there copyright 2007 john wiley sons ltd

rainfall induced landslide susceptibility zonation of puerto rico landslides are a major geologic hazard with estimated tens of deaths and 1 2 billion in economic losses per year in the us alone the island of puerto rico experiences one or two large events per year often triggered in steeply sloped areas by prolonged and heavy rainfall identifying areas susceptible to landslides thus has great potential value for puerto rico and would allow better management of its territory landslide susceptibility zonation lsz procedures identify areas prone to failure based on the characteristics of past events lszs are here developed based on two widely applied methodologies bivariate frequency ratio fr method and logistic regression lr method with these methodologies the correlations among eight possible landslide inducing factors over the island have been investigated in detail both methodologies indicate aspect slope elevation geological discontinuities and geology as highly significant landslide inducing factors together with land cover for the fr method and distance from road for the lr method the lr method is grounded in rigorous statistical testing and model building but did not improve results over the simpler fr method accordingly the fr method has been selected to generate a landslide susceptibility map for puerto rico the landslide susceptibility predictions were tested against previous landslide analyses and other landslide inventories this independent evaluation demonstrated that the two methods are consistent with landslide susceptibility zonation from those earlier studies and showed this analysis to have resulted in a robust and verifiable landslide susceptibility zonation map for the whole island of puerto rico

towards inferring earthquake patterns from geodetic observations of interseismic coupling ultimately seismotectonic studies seek to provide ways of assessing the timing magnitude and spatial extent of future earthquakes ample observations document the spatial variability in interseismic coupling defined as a degree of locking of a fault during the period of stress build up between seismic events fully or nearly locked fault patches are often surrounded by aseismically creeping areas however it is unclear how these observations could help assess future earthquakes here we simulate spontaneous seismic and aseismic fault slip with a fully dynamic numerical model our simulations establish the dependence of earthquake rupture patterns and interseismic coupling on spatial variations of fault friction we consider the long term evolution of slip on a model fault where two seismogenic locked segments are separated by an aseismically slipping patch where rupture is impeded we find that the probability for a large earthquake to break through the rupture impeding patch is correlated with the interseismic coupling averaged over this patch in addition the probability that an earthquake breaks through the rupture impeding patch and interseismic coupling are both related to fault friction properties through a single non dimensional parameter our study opens the possibility of predicting seismic rupture patterns that a fault system can produce on the basis of observations of its interseismic coupling and suggests that regions of low interseismic coupling may reveal permanent barriers to large earthquakes

offshore geodetic data conducive to the estimation of the afterslip distribution following the 2003 tokachi oki earthquake a cable based seafloor observatory located offshore of hokkaido japan provides the world s first direct observation of offshore post seismic displacement after removing thermal noise this data is used to constrain the distribution of offshore afterslip from a great interplate earthquake mw 8 0 that occurred during 2003 along the southern kuril trench a checkerboard resolution test showed a great contribution of the offshore data to improving the spatial resolution on the plate interface slip near the trench the 1 yr afterslip is distributed in a u shaped pattern encircling its co seismic slip area this result indicates that the stick slip frictional properties of the plate interface are distributed in a patch like pattern as opposed to a banding pattern as previously assumed in young subduction zones

random forests and evidential belief function based landslide susceptibility assessment in western mazandaran province iran in many parts of the world landslide susceptibility remains inadequately mapped due to the lack of both data and suitable methods for widespread implementation iran is one of those countries with extensive landslide problems with nearly 4900 large landslides occurring between 1993 and 2007 at the same time landslide susceptibility has not been assessed for the country random forest rf has recently been shown to be a suitable tool for such mapping in this study we further coupled the rf method with an evidential belief function ebf approach and tested the suitability for landslide susceptibility mapping for variable terrain and data conditions in the west of mazandaran province northern iran locations of earlier landslides were identified by interpreting aerial photographs and through extensive field surveys eleven conditioning factors were used in the rf model the spatial relationship between landslide occurrence and conditioning factors was then assessed using the data driven ebf model and ebf values paired to each map finally the ebf maps were used for running the rf model finally the efficiency of the rf ebf model was tested using the area under the curve to measure the success and prediction rates of the incorporated data this resulted in a success rate of 85 2 and a prediction rate of 81 8 the most important conditioning factors identified were lithology altitude distance from roads and land use respectively based on the overall assessment the combined rf and ebf approach was found to be objective and an applicable estimator that improves the predictive accuracy and controls for overfitting and thus useful for landslide susceptibility mapping at regional scales

talc bearing serpentinite and the creeping section of the san andreas fault the section of the san andreas fault located between cholame valley and san juan bautista in central california creeps at a rate as high as 28 mm yr 1 ref 1 and it is also the segment that yields the best evidence for being a weak fault embedded in a strong crust serpentinized ultramafic rocks have been associated with creeping faults in central and northern california and serpentinite is commonly invoked as the cause of the creep and the low strength of this section of the san andreas fault however the frictional strengths of serpentine minerals are too high to satisfy the limitations on fault strength and these minerals also have the potential for unstable slip under some conditions here we report the discovery of talc in cuttings of serpentinite collected from the probable active trace of the san andreas fault that was intersected during drilling of the san andreas fault observatory at depth safod main hole in 2005 we infer that the talc is forming as a result of the reaction of serpentine minerals with silica saturated hydrothermal fluids that migrate up the fault zone and the talc commonly occurs in sheared serpentinite this discovery is significant as the frictional strength of talc at elevated temperatures is sufficiently low to meet the constraints on the shear strength of the fault and its inherently stable sliding behaviour is consistent with fault creep talc may therefore provide the connection between serpentinite and creep in the san andreas fault if shear at depth can become localized along a talc rich principal slip surface within serpentinite entrained in the fault zone

landslide susceptibility mapping using frequency ratio analytic hierarchy process logistic regression and artificial neural network methods at the inje area korea every year the republic of korea experiences numerous landslides resulting in property damage and casualties this study compared the abilities of frequency ratio fr analytic hierarchy process ahp logistic regression lr and artificial neural network ann models to produce landslide susceptibility index lsi maps for use in predicting possible landslide occurrence and limiting damage the areas under the relative operating characteristic roc curves for the fr ahp lr and ann lsi maps were 0 794 0 789 0 794 and 0 806 respectively thus the lsi maps developed by all the models had similar accuracy a cross tabulation analysis of landslide occurrence against non occurrence areas showed generally similar overall accuracies of 65 27 64 35 65 51 and 68 47 for the fr ahp lr and ann models respectively a correlation analysis between the models demonstrated that the lr and ann models had the highest correlation 0 829 whereas the fr and ahp models had the lowest correlation 0 619

geodetically accurate insar data processor we present a new interferometric synthetic aperture radar insar processing approach that capitalizes on the precise orbit tracking that is available with modern radar satellites our method uses an accurate orbit information along with motion compensation techniques to propagate the radar echoes to positions along a noninertial virtual orbit frame in which the location and focusing equations are particularly simple so that images are focused without requiring autofocus techniques and are computed efficiently motion compensation requires two additional focus correction phase terms that are implemented in the frequency domain if the images from an interferometric pair or stack are all computed along the same reference orbit flat earth topographic correction is not needed and image coregistration is simplified obviating many difficulties that are often encountered in insar processing we process several data sets collected by the alos palsar instrument and find that the geodetic accuracy of the radar images is 10 20 m with up to 20 m of additional image distortion needed to align 100 km 100 km scenes with reference digital elevation models we validated the accuracy by using both known radar corner reflector locations and by the registration of the interferograms with digital maps the topography corrected interferograms are free from all geometric phase terms and they clearly show the geophysical observables of crustal deformation atmospheric phase and ionospheric phase

frictional afterslip following the 2005 nias simeulue earthquake sumatra continuously recording global positioning system stations near the 28 march 2005 rupture of the sunda megathrust moment magnitude m w 8 7 show that the earthquake triggered aseismic frictional afterslip on the subduction megathrust with a major fraction of this slip in the up dip direction from the main rupture eleven months after the main shock afterslip continues at rates several times the average interseismic rate resulting in deformation equivalent to at least a m w 8 2 earthquake in general along strike variations in frictional behavior appear to persist over multiple earthquake cycles aftershocks cluster along the boundary between the region of coseismic slip and the up dip creeping zone we observe that the cumulative number of aftershocks increases linearly with postseismic displacements this finding suggests that the temporal evolution of aftershocks is governed by afterslip

landslide susceptibility mapping using index of entropy and conditional probability models in gis safarood basin iran abstract landslide susceptibility mapping is essential for land use planning and decision making especially in the mountainous areas the main objective of this study is to produce landslide susceptibility maps at safarood basin iran using two statistical models such as an index of entropy and conditional probability and to compare the obtained results at the first stage landslide locations were identified in the study area by interpretation of aerial photographs and from field investigations of the 153 landslides identified 105 70 locations were used for the landslide susceptibility maps while the remaining 48 30 cases were used for the model validation the landslide conditioning factors such as slope degree slope aspect altitude lithology distance to faults distance to rivers distance to roads topographic wetness index twi stream power index spi slope length ls land use and plan curvature were extracted from the spatial database using these factors landslide susceptibility and weights of each factor were analyzed by index of entropy and conditional probability models finally the roc receiver operating characteristic curves for landslide susceptibility maps were drawn and the areas under the curve auc were calculated the verification results showed that the index of entropy model auc 86 08 performed slightly better than conditional probability auc 82 75 model the produced susceptibility maps can be useful for general land use planning in the safarood basin iran

rock mass characterization by fractal dimension fractal theory is used in the present study to develop a more reliable method for rock mass characterization field studies have been carried out in opencast mines of dolomite limestone fluorite sandstone and shale in coalmines fractal dimension of blasted fragments dfrag and in situ rock blocks din situ is calculated using size distribution curves according to schumann s model based on the co relation between uniaxial compressive strength ucs and dfrag it is observed that change in fractal dimension is nominal beyond the ucs value of 20 from the co relation between bieniawaski s rock mass rating rmr and din situ it is found that there is a sharp increase in fractal dimension for rmr greater than 40 co relation between rmr and dfrag din situ shows that as rmr increases dfrag din situ ratio decreases rock mass classification based on fractal geometry is suggested

some thoughts on the use of insar data to constrain models of surface deformation noise structure and data downsampling repeat pass interferometric synthetic aperture radar insar provides spatially dense maps of surface deformation with potentially tens of millions of data points here we estimate the actual covariance structure of noise in insar data we compare the results for several independent interferograms with a large ensemble of gps observations of tropospheric delay and discuss how the common approaches used during processing of insar data affects the inferred covariance structure motivated by computational concerns associated with numerical modeling of deformation sources we then combine the data covariance information with the inherent resolution of an assumed source model to develop an efficient algorithm for spatially variable data resampling or averaging we illustrate these technical developments with two earthquake scenarios at different ends of the earthquake magnitude spectrum for the larger events our goal is to invert for the coseismic fault slip distribution for smaller events we infer the hypocenter location and moment we compare the results of inversions using several different resampling algorithms and we assess the importance of using the full noise covariance matrix

a multiscale approach to estimating topographically correlated propagation delays in radar interferograms when targeting small amplitude surface deformation using repeat orbit interferometric synthetic aperture radar insar observations can be plagued by propagation delays some of which correlate with topographic variations these topographically correlated delays result from temporal variations in vertical stratification of the troposphere an approximate model assuming a linear relationship between topography and interferometric phase has been used to correct observations with success in a few studies here we present a robust approach to estimating the transfer function k between topography and phase that is relatively insensitive to confounding processes earthquake deformation phase ramps from orbital errors tidal loading etc our approach takes advantage of a multiscale perspective by using a band pass decomposition of both topography and observed phase this decomposition into several spatial scales allows us to determine the bands wherein correlation between topography and phase is significant and stable when possible our approach also takes advantage of any inherent redundancy provided by multiple interferograms constructed with common scenes we define a unique set of component time intervals for a given suite of interferometric pairs we estimate an internally consistent transfer function for each component time interval which can then be recombined to correct any arbitrary interferometric pair we demonstrate our approach on a synthetic example and on data from two locations long valley caldera california which experienced prolonged periods of surface deformation from pressurization of a deep magma chamber and one coseismic interferogram from the 2007 mw 7 8 tocapilla earthquake in northern chile in both examples the corrected interferograms show improvements in regions of high relief independent of whether or not we pre correct the data for a source model we believe that most of the remaining signals are predominately due to heterogeneous water vapor distribution that requires more sophisticated correction methods than those described here

multiscale insar time series mints analysis of surface deformation 1 we present a new approach to extracting spatially and temporally continuous ground deformation fields from interferometric synthetic aperture radar insar data we focus on unwrapped interferograms from a single viewing geometry estimating ground deformation along the line of sight our approach is based on a wavelet decomposition in space and a general parametrization in time we refer to this approach as mints multiscale insar time series the wavelet decomposition efficiently deals with commonly seen spatial covariances in repeat pass insar measurements since the coefficients of the wavelets are essentially spatially uncorrelated our time dependent parametrization is capable of capturing both recognized and unrecognized processes and is not arbitrarily tied to the times of the sar acquisitions we estimate deformation in the wavelet domain using a cross validated regularized least squares inversion we include a model resolution based regularization in order to more heavily damp the model during periods of sparse sar acquisitions compared to during times of dense acquisitions to illustrate the application of mints we consider a catalog of 92 ers and envisat interferograms spanning 16 years in the long valley caldera ca region mints analysis captures the ground deformation with high spatial density over the long valley region

stable creeping fault segments can become destructive as a result of dynamic weakening faults in earth s crust accommodate slow relative motion between tectonic plates through either similarly slow slip or fast seismic wave producing rupture events perceived as earthquakes these types of behaviour are often assumed to be separated in space and to occur on two different types of fault segment one with stable rate strengthening friction and the other with rate weakening friction that leads to stick slip the 2011 tohoku oki earthquake with moment magnitude m w 9 0 challenged such assumptions by accumulating its largest seismic slip in the area that had been assumed to be creeping here we propose a model in which stable rate strengthening behaviour at low slip rates is combined with coseismic weakening due to rapid shear heating of pore fluids allowing unstable slip to occur in segments that can creep between events the model parameters are based on laboratory measurements on samples from the fault of the m w 7 6 1999 chi chi earthquake the long term slip behaviour of the model which we examine using a unique numerical approach that includes all wave effects reproduces and explains a number of both long term and coseismic observations some of them seemingly contradictory about the faults at which the tohoku oki and chi chi earthquakes occurred including there being more high frequency radiation from areas of lower slip the largest seismic slip in the tohoku oki earthquake having occurred in a potentially creeping segment the overall pattern of previous events in the area and the complexity of the tohoku oki rupture the implication that earthquake rupture may break through large portions of creeping segments which are at present considered to be barriers requires a re evaluation of seismic hazard in many areas

three dimensional modelling of stratified coastal waters abstract an implicit baroclinic 3 d model developed to simulate the circulation in coastal waters is presented the model has hydrodynamic transport and turbulence model components it is a composite finite difference finite element model in the horizontal plane second order central finite differences on a staggered scheme and in the vertical galerkin method with linear shape functions are used implicit equations are solved by crank nicholson method which has second order accuracy in time also developed model predictions are compared with the analytical solutions of steady wind driven circulatory flow and tidal flow model predictions are tested with an experiment performed on the buoyant surface jet discharge then the model is applied to the goksu lagoon system located on the mediterranean coast of turkey where there exist some measurements of salinity temperature and velocity model predictions are in good agreement with the field data

landslide susceptibility assessment in the izmir west anatolia turkey city center and its near vicinity by the logistic regression method a landslide susceptibility assessment for izmir city western turkey which is the third biggest city of turkey was performed by a logistic regression method a database of landslide characteristics was prepared using detailed field surveys the major landslides in the study area are generally observed in the field dominated by weathered volcanics and 39 63 of the total landslide area is in this unit the parameters of lithology slope gradient slope aspect distance to drainage distance to roads and distance to fault lines were used as variables in the logistic regression analysis the effect of each parameter on landslide occurrence was assessed from the corresponding coefficients that appear in the logistic regression function on the basis of the obtained coefficients lithology plays the most important role in determining landslide occurrence and distribution slope gradient has a more significant effect than the other geomorphological parameters such as slope aspect and distance to drainage using a predicted map of probability the study area was classified into five categories of landslide susceptibility very low low moderate high and very high whereas 49 65 of the total study area has very low susceptibility very high susceptibility zones make up 11 69 of the area

use of fuzzy relations to produce landslide susceptibility map of a landslide prone area west black sea region turkey abstract preparation of landslide susceptibility maps is important for engineering geologists and geomorphologists however due to complex nature of landslides producing a reliable susceptibility map is not easy for this reason many procedures have been used to produce such maps in this study a new attempt is tried to produce landslide susceptibility map of a part of west black sea region of turkey to obtain the fuzzy relations for producing the susceptibility map a landslide inventory database is compiled by both field surveys and airphoto studies a total of 266 landslides are identified in the study area and dominant mode of failure is rotational slide while the other mode of failures are soil flow and shallow translational slide the landslide inventory and the parameter maps are analyzed together using a computer program fullsa developed in this study the computer program utilizes the fuzzy relations and produces the landslide susceptibility map automatically according to this map 9 6 of the study area is classified as very high susceptibility 10 3 as high susceptibility 8 9 as moderate susceptibility 27 5 as low susceptibility and 43 8 as very low susceptibility or nonsusceptible areas the prediction performance of the susceptibility map is checked by considering actual landslides in the study area for this purpose strength of the relation rij and the root mean square error rmse values are calculated as 0 867 and 0 284 respectively these values show that the produced landslide susceptibility map in the present study has a sufficient reliability it is believed that the approach employed in this study mainly prevents the subjectivity sourced from the parameter selection and provides a support to improve the landslide susceptibility mapping studies

extended nucleation of the 1999 mw 7 6 izmit earthquake laboratory and theoretical studies suggest that earthquakes are preceded by a phase of developing slip instability in which the fault slips slowly before accelerating to dynamic rupture we report here that one of the best recorded large earthquakes to date the 1999 moment magnitude mw 7 6 izmit turkey earthquake was preceded by a seismic signal of long duration that originated from the hypocenter the signal consisted of a succession of repetitive seismic bursts accelerating with time and increased low frequency seismic noise these observations show that the earthquake was preceded for 44 minutes by a phase of slow slip occurring at the base of the brittle crust this slip accelerated slowly initially and then rapidly accelerated in the 2 minutes preceding the earthquake

three dimensional layer integrated modelling of estuarine flows with flooding and drying abstract details are given of the refinement and application of a thee dimensional 3 d layer integrated numerical model of tidal circulation with the aim of simulating severe tidal conditions for practical engineering applications the mode splitting strategy has been used in the model a set of depth integrated 2 d equations are first solved to give the pressure gradient and the layer integrated 3 d equations are then solved to obtain the vertical distributions of the flow velocities attention has been given to maintaining consistency of the physical quantities derived from the 2 d and 3 d equations a two layer mixing length turbulence model for the vertical shear stress distribution has been included in the model emphasis has been focused on applying the model to a real estuary which is geometrically complicated and has large tidal ranges giving rise to extensive flooding and drying the model has been applied to three examples including wind driven flow in a rectangular lake tidal circulation in a model rectangular harbour and tidal circulation in a large estuary favourable results have been obtained for both the simple and complex flow beds

remote sensing and gis based landslide susceptibility mapping using frequency ratio and analytical hierarchy methods in rize province ne turkey the northeast part of turkey is prone to landslides because of the climatic conditions as well as geologic and geomorphologic characteristics of the region especially frequent landslides in the rize province often result in significant damage to people and property therefore in order to mitigate the damage from landslides and help the planners in selecting suitable locations for implementing development projects especially in large areas it is necessary to scientifically assess susceptible areas in this study the frequency ratio method and the analytical hierarchy process ahp were used to produce susceptibility maps especially ahp gives best results because of allowing better structuring of various components including both objective and subjective aspects and comparing them by a logical and thorough method which involves a matrix based pairwise comparison of the contribution of different factors for landslide for this purpose lithology slope angle slope aspect land cover distance to stream drainage density and distance to road were considered as landslide causal factors for the study area the processing of multi geodata sets was carried out in a raster gis environment lithology was derived from the geological database and additional field studies slope angle slope aspect distance to stream distance to road and drainage density were invented from digital elevation models land cover was produced from remote sensing imagery in the end of study the results of the analysis were verified using actual landslide location data the validation results showed satisfactory agreement between the susceptibility map and the existing data on landslide locations

landslide susceptibility assessment what are the effects of mapping unit and mapping method landslide susceptibility assessment forms the basis of any hazard mapping which is one of the essential parts of quantitative risk mapping for the same study area different susceptibility maps can be achieved depending on the type of susceptibility mapping methods mapping unit and scale although there are various methods of obtaining susceptibility maps the efficiency and performance of each method should be evaluated in this study the effect of mapping unit and susceptibility mapping method on landslide susceptibility assessment is investigated when analyzing the effect of susceptibility mapping method logistic regression lr which is widely used in landslide susceptibility mapping and spatial regression sr which have not been used for landslide susceptibility mapping are selected the susceptibility maps with logistic and spatial regression models are obtained using two different mapping units namely slope unit based and grid based mapping units the procedure for investigation of effect of mapping unit on different susceptibility mapping methods is applied to kumluca watershed in bartin province of western black sea region turkey 18 factor maps are prepared for landslide susceptibility assessment in the study region geographic information systems and remote sensing techniques are used to create the landslide factor maps to obtain susceptibility maps and to compare the results the relative operating characteristics roc curve is used to compare the predictive abilities of each model and mapping unit and also the accuracy is evaluated depending on the observations made during field surveys by analyzing the area under the roc curve for grid based and slope unit based mapping units it can be concluded that sr model provide better predictive performance 0 774 in grids and 0 898 in slope units as compared to the lr model 0 744 in grids and 0 820 in slope units this result is also supported by the accuracy analysis for both mapping units the sr model provides more accurate result 0 55 for grids and 0 57 for slope units than the lr model 0 50 for grids and 0 48 for slopes the main reason for this better performance is that the spatial correlations between the mapping units are incorporated into the model in sr while this fact is not considered in lr model

source study of the 1906 san francisco earthquake all quality teleseismic recordings of the great 1906 san francisco earthquake archived in the 1908 carnegie report by the state earthquake investigation commission were scanned and digitized first order results were obtained by comparing complexity and amplitudes of teleseismic waveforms from the 1906 earthquake with well calibrated similarly located more recent earthquakes 1979 coyote lake 1984 morgan hill and 1989 loma prieta earthquakes at nearly co located modern stations peak amplitude ratios for calibration events indicated that a localized moment release of about 1 to 1 5 10 27 dyne cm was responsible for producing the peak the teleseismic body wave arrivals at longer periods 50 to 80 sec we found spectral amplitude ratios of the surface waves require a total moment release between 4 and 6 10 27 dyne cm for the 1906 earthquake comparable to previous geodetic and surface wave estimates thatcher 1975 we then made a more detailed source analysis using morgan hill s body waves as empirical green s functions in a finite fault subevent summation the morgan hill earthquake was deemed most appropriate for this purpose as its mechanism is that of the 1906 earthquake in the central portion of the rupture from forward and inverse empirical summations of morgan hill green s functions we obtained a good fit to the best quality teleseismic waveforms with a relatively simple source model having two regions of localized strong radiation separated spatially by about 110 km assuming the 1906 epicenter determined by bolt 1968 this corresponds with a large asperity on the order of the loma prieta earthquake in the golden gate san francisco region and one about three times larger located northwest along strike between point reyes and fort ross this model implies that much of the 1906 rupture zone may have occurred with relatively little 10 to 20 sec radiation consideration of the amplitude and frequency content of the 1906 teleseismic data allowed us to estimate the scale length of the largest asperity to be less than about 40 km with rough constraints on the largest asperity size and magnitude we produced a suite of estimated synthetic ground velocities assuming a slip distribution similar to that of the loma prieta earthquake but with three times as much slip for purposes of comparison with the recent abundant loma prieta strong motion data set we moved the largest 1906 asperity into loma prieta region peak ground velocity amplitudes are substantially greater than those recorded during the loma prieta earthquake and are comparable to those predicted by the attenuation relationship of joyner and boore 1988 for a magnitude m w 7 7 earthquake

long term creep rates on the hayward fault evidence for controls on the size and frequency of large earthquakes the hayward fault hf in california exhibits large m w 6 5 7 1 earthquakes with short recurrence times 161 65 yr probably kept short by a 26 78 aseismic release rate including postseismic its interseismic release rate varies locally over time as we infer from many decades of surface creep data earliest estimates of creep rate primarily from infrequent surveys of offset cultural features revealed distinct spatial variation in rates along the fault but no detectable temporal variation since the 1989 m w 6 9 loma prieta earthquake lpe monitoring on 32 alinement arrays and 5 creepmeters has greatly improved the spatial and temporal resolution of creep rate we now identify significant temporal variations mostly associated with local and regional earthquakes the largest rate change was a 6 yr cessation of creep along a 5 km length near the south end of the hf attributed to a regional stress drop from the lpe ending in 1996 with a 2 cm creep event north of there near union city starting in 1991 rates apparently increased by 25 above pre lpe levels on a 16 km long reach of the fault near oakland in 2007 an m w 4 2 earthquake initiated a 1 2 cm creep event extending 10 15 km along the fault using new better constrained long term creep rates we updated earlier estimates of depth to locking along the hf the locking depths outline a single 50 km long locked or retarded patch with the potential for an m w 6 8 event equaling the 1868 hf earthquake we propose that this inferred patch regulates the size and frequency of large earthquakes on hf online material 2007 event creep models plots of creepmeter data maps and cross sections of relocated microearthquakes and active fault traces and iterative solutions for depth of creep

high resolution interseismic velocity data along the san andreas fault from gps and insar 1 we compared four interseismic velocity models of the san andreas fault based on gps observations the standard deviations of the predicted secular velocity from the four models are larger north of the san francisco bay area near the creeping segment in central california and along the san jacinto fault and the east california shear zone in southern california a coherence spectrum analysis of the secular velocity fields indicates relatively high correlation among the four models at longer wavelengths 15 40 km with lower correlation at shorter wavelengths to improve the short wavelength accuracy of the interseismic velocity model we integrated interferometric synthetic aperture radar insar observations initially from advanced land observing satellite alos ascending data spanning from the middle of 2006 to the end of 2010 totaling more than 1100 interferograms with gps observations using a sum remove filter restore approach the final insar line of sight data match the point gps observations with a mean absolute deviation of 1 5 mm yr we systematically evaluated the fault creep rates along major faults of the san andreas fault and compared them with creepmeters and alignment array data compiled in uniform california earthquake rupture forecast version 2 ucerf2 moreover this insar line of sight dataset can constrain rapid velocity gradients near the faults which are critical for understanding the along strike variations in stress accumulation rate and associated earthquake hazard

slip along the san andreas fault associated with the great 1857 earthquake historical records indicate that several meters of lateral slip along the san andreas fault accompanied the great 1857 earthquake in central and southern california these records together with dendrochronological evidence suggest that the rupture occurred along 360 to 400 km of the fault including several tens of kilometers of the currently creeping reach in central california geomorphic expressions of late holocene right lateral offsets are abundant along the 1857 rupture along 300 kilometers of the 1857 rupture between cholame and wrightwood the youngest discernible offset ranges from 3 to 9 1 2 meters dormancy of the fault since 1857 almost certainly indicates that this latest offset was created in 1857 fault slip apparently associated with the 1857 earthquake varies in a broadly systematic way along the trace of the fault it is relatively uniform along each of several long segments but changes rather abruptly in value between these segments this nonuniform displacement pattern may imply that some segments of the fault rupture more frequently or experience a slower long term slip rate than others the 1857 offsets indicate a seismic moment m o between 5 3 and 8 7 10 27 dyne cm assuming a 10 to 15 km depth of rupture and relatively uniform slip as a function of depth a comparison with the rupture length average slip value and tectonic setting of the california earthquake of 1906 m s 8 1 4 indicates a value of m 8 1 4 for the 1857 event

assessment of fractal dimension and geometrical characteristics of the landslides identified in north of tehran iran the aim of the presented study is to assess the fractal dimension d and the geometrical characteristics length and width of the landslides identified in north of tehran iran at first the landslide locations 528 landslides were identified by interpretation of aerial photographs satellite images and field surveys and then to calculate the fractal dimension d we used the computer programming named as fracek in the next step geometrical characteristics of each landslide such as length l and width w were calculated by arcgis software the landslide polygons were digitized from the mentioned landslide inventory map and rotated based on movement direction the fractal dimension for all landslides varied between 1 665 and 1 968 subsequently the relationship between the length width ratios and theirs fractal d values for 528 landslides was calculated the results showed that correlation coefficients r which are different regression models such as exponential linear logarithmic polynomial and power between d and l w ratio are relatively high respectively 0 75 0 75 0 76 0 78 and 0 75 it can be concluded that the fractal dimension values and geometry characteristics of landslides would be useful indices for the management of hazardous areas susceptible slopes land use planning and landslide hazard mitigation

landslide susceptibility mapping for ayvalik western turkey and its vicinity by multicriteria decision analysis this paper presents the results of geographical information system gis based landslide susceptibility mapping in ayvalik western turkey using multi criteria decision analysis the methodology followed in the study includes data production standardization and analysis stages a landslide inventory of the study area was compiled from aerial photographs satellite image interpretations and detailed field surveys in total 45 landslides were recorded and mapped the areal extent of the landslides is 1 75 km2 the identified landslides are mostly shallow seated and generally exhibit progressive character they are mainly classified as rotational planar and toppling failures in all 51 45 and 4 of the landslides mapped are rotational planar and toppling types respectively morphological geological and land use data were produced using existing topographical and relevant thematic maps in a gis framework the considered landslide conditioning parameters were slope gradient slope aspect lithology weathering state of the rocks stream power index topographical wetness index distance from drainage lineament density and land cover and vegetation density these landslide parameters were standardized in a common data scale by fuzzy membership functions then the degree to which each parameter contributed to landslides was determined using the analytical hierarchy process method and the weight values of these parameters were calculated the weight values obtained were assigned to the corresponding parameters and then the weighted parameters were combined to produce a landslide susceptibility map the results obtained from the susceptibility map were evaluated with the landslide location data to assess the reliability of the map based on the findings obtained in this study it was found that 5 19 of the total area was prone to landsliding due to the existence of highly and completely weathered lithologic units and due to the adverse effects of topography and improper land use

slip on the san andreas fault at parkfield california over two earthquake cycles and the implications for seismic hazard parkfield california which experienced m 6 0 earthquakes in 1934 1966 and 2004 is one of the few locales for which geodetic observations span multiple earthquake cycles we undertake a comprehensive study of deformation over the most recent earthquake cycle and explore the results in the context of geodetic data collected prior to the 1966 event through joint inversion of the variety of parkfield geodetic measurements trilateration two color laser and global positioning system including previously unpublished two color data we estimate the spatial distribution of slip and slip rate along the san andreas using a fault geometry based on precisely relocated seismicity although the three most recent parkfield earthquakes appear complementary in their along strike distributions of slip they do not produce uniform strain release along strike over multiple seismic cycles since the 1934 earthquake more than 1 m of slip deficit has accumulated on portions of the fault that slipped in the 1966 and 2004 earthquakes and an average of 2 m of slip deficit exists on the 33 km of the fault southeast of gold hill to be released in a future perhaps larger earthquake it appears that the fault is capable of partially releasing stored strain in moderate earthquakes maintaining a disequilibrium through multiple earthquake cycles this complicates the application of simple earthquake recurrence models that assume only the strain accumulated since the most recent event is relevant to the size or timing of an upcoming earthquake our findings further emphasize that accumulated slip deficit is not sufficient for earthquake nucleation online material model fault geometry fit to the data for the inversions and model resolution

coseismic deformation from the 1999 mw 7 1 hector mine california earthquake as inferred from insar and gps observations we use interferometric synthetic aperture radar insar and global positioning system gps observations to investigate static deformation due to the 1999 m w 7 1 hector mine earthquake that occurred in the eastern california shear zone interferometric decorrelation phase and azimuth offset measurements indicate regions of surface and near surface slip which we use to constrain the geometry of surface rupture the inferred geometry is spatially complex with multiple strands the southern third of the rupture zone consists of three subparallel segments extending about 20 km in length in a n45 w direction the central segment is the simplest with a single strand crossing the bullion mountains and a strike of n10 w the northern third of the rupture zone is characterized by multiple splays with directions subparallel to strikes in the southern and central the average strike for the entire rupture is about n30 w the interferograms indicate significant along strike variations in strain which are consistent with variations in the ground based slip measurements using a variable resolution data sampling routine to reduce the computational burden we invert the insar and gps data for the fault geometry and distribution of slip we compare results from assuming an elastic half space and a layered elastic space results from these two elastic models are similar although the layered space model predicts more slip at depth than does the half space model the layered model predicts a maximum coseismic slip of more than 5 m at a depth of 3 to 6 km contrary to preliminary reports the northern part of the hector mine rupture accommodates the maximum slip our model predictions for the surface fault offset and total seismic moment agree with both field mapping results and recent seismic models the inferred shallow slip deficit is enigmatic and may suggest that distributed inelastic yielding occurred in the uppermost few kilometers of the crust during or soon after the earthquake

spatial variations in slip deficit on the central san andreas fault from insar summary we use ers insar measurements to record spatial variations in creep rate along the creeping segment of the san andreas fault saf california between 1992 and 2001 inversion of geodetic data yields a slip rate distribution along the creeping segment which is used for firstorder moment release and deficit calculations we present a time averaged spatial picture of surface deformation and associated subsurface creep an interferometric stack is constructed from 12 interferograms that show good coherence for the decade of observation the total right lateral offset spanned by the data is 34 mm yr 1 along most of the length of the creeping segment this offset occurs within a narrow 2 km zone close to the fault trace in the northern part a minor part of the offset is taken up by the nearby calaveras paicines fault in general the observed rates of surface creep are consistent with those obtained by several other studies for a longer and or earlier period of time using different geodetic methods this suggests that the average creep rate has been constant over a period of almost four decades a joint gps insar inversion implies that the shallow creep rate is variable along strike reaching up to 31 5 1m m yr 1 in the central section of the creeping segment tapering off along strike to the south and becoming partitioned across two subparallel faults in the north the deep slip rate beneath the seismogenic layer is 33 3m m yr 1 the difference between shallow and deep slip rates suggests that there is a shallow slip deficit on the creeping segment of the saf csaf moment release rate due to aseismic slip is approximately three orders of magnitude greater than seismic moment release the annual creep on the csaf is equivalent to the moment released in a m 6 earthquake the equivalent moment of the slip deficit relative to the deep slip rate is between 4 1 10 17 and 8 4 10 17 nm yr 1 which is equivalent to a magnitude 5 7 5 9 earthquake over a 150 yr period the deficit is equivalent to a m 7 2 7 4 earthquake this slip deficit may be compensated by intermittent moderate sized events or by accelerated afterslip following large events on nearby fault segments

geodetic measurement of tectonic deformation in the santa maria fold and thrust belt california we have analyzed geodetic observations to resolve tectonic deformation across the santa maria fold and thrust belt northwest of santa barbara california the geodetic network forms a braced quadrilateral with 40 km sides whose southwest corner is the vandenberg very long baseline interferometry station the data include 1 historical triangulation from the 1880s 1920s and 1950s 2 electronic distance measurement trilateration from 1971 and 1985 and 3 global positioning system observations from 1986 and 1987 we combine the three different types of data to estimate two dimensional station positions and strain rate parameters simultaneously using a model which constrains the relative velocity field to be linear in space and constant in time we find significant strain rates the maximum compressive strain is oriented n17 e 5 e and the compressive strain rate in this direction is 0 13 0 03 strain yr under the assumption that the unresolved rotational component of the velocity field is zero we estimate that the integrated rate of deformation across the basin is 7 1 mm yr oriented at n03 e 13 this vector can be decomposed into 6 2 mm yr of crustal shortening on the general structural trend of n30 e and 3 1 mm yr of right lateral shear across this axis on the basis of these values and earthquake focal mechanisms in the area we infer that the deformation occurs on northwest trending folds and thrusts within the belt these results are consistent with the rate and direction of deformation across the central california coast ranges inferred by balancing pacific north america plate motion against san andreas slip and basin and range extension they imply that the santa maria fold and thrust belt is the primary active element in transforming motion from the coast ranges to the western transverse ranges and the santa barbara channel