space geodetic observations of nazca south america convergence across the central andes space geodetic data recorded rates and directions of motion across the convergent boundary zone between the oceanic nazca and continental south american plates in peru and bolivia roughly half of the overall convergence about 30 to 40 millimeters per year accumulated on the locked plate interface and can be released in future earthquakes about 10 to 15 millimeters per year of crustal shortening occurred inland at the sub andean foreland fold and thrust belt indicating that the andes are continuing to build little 5 to 10 millimeters per year along trench motion of coastal forearc slivers was observed despite the oblique convergence

topography and tectonics of the central new madrid seismic zone results of numerical experiments using a three dimensional boundary element program we present results of a series of numerical experiments designed to test hypothetical mechanisms that drive deformation in the new madrid seismic zone experiments are constrained by subtle topography and the distribution of seismicity in the region we use a new boundary element algorithm that permits calculation of the three dimensional deformation field surface displacement fields are calculated for the new madrid zone under both far field plate tectonic scale and locally derived driving strains results demonstrate that surface displacement fields cannot distinguish between either a far field simple or pure shear strain field or one that involves a deep shear zone beneath the upper crustal faults thus neither geomorphic nor geodetic studies alone are expected to reveal the ultimate driving mechanism behind the present day deformation we have also tested hypotheses about strain accommodation within the new madrid contractional step over by including linking faults two southwest dipping and one vertical recently inferred from microearthquake data only those models with step over faults are able to predict the observed topography surface displacement fields for long term relaxed deformation predict the distribution of uplift and subsidence in the contractional step over remarkably well generation of these displacement fields appear to require slip on both the two northeast trending vertical faults and the two dipping faults in the step over region with very minor displacements occurring during the interseismic period when the northeast trending vertical faults are locked these models suggest that the gently dipping central step over fault is a reverse fault and that the steeper fault extending to the southeast of the step over acts as a normal fault over the long term

coastwise transport reconsidered lateral displacements in oblique subduction zones and tectonic consequences coastwise transport margin parallel displacement of arc and forearc slivers is a common feature of zones of oblique subduction today but at rates that rarely exceed a few tens of kilometers per million year paleomagnetic studies strongly indicate that coastwise transport in the north american cordillera went on during late cretaceous early tertiary time at rates several times higher than this other studies have shown that obliquity is commonly partitioned between oblique subduction and coastwise transport of a detached sliver of over riding crust the analysis developed here indicates that in the absence of a buttress a physical impediment to sliver motion at its leading edge sliver motion should obey the relationship tan p r tan 1 1 r2 sin2 12 where is the angle of obliquity is the angle of subduction and r rfrs is the ratio of resistance to slip on strike slip faults cutting the over riding plate to resistance to slip on the subduction zone in this equation p is a partitioning factor 0 p 1 where p 1 implies oblique subduction and no sliver motion and p 0 is the case in which the sliver moves at velocity v sin equivalent to the transverse component of relative motion rates of coastwise transport calculated from this relationship are systematically too high presumably indicating that most modern subduction zones are buttressed key factors in the buttress effect are 1 the greater strength of oceanic vs continental lithosphere and 2 the energy required to thicken continental crust large scale tectonic transport in the north american cordillera probably was the result of a combination of favorable factors long continued highly oblique convergence and a plate margin geometry that avoided the buttress problem

calcrete in quaternary coastal dunes in southwestern australia a capillary rise phenomenon associated with plants abstract non pedogenic calcrete is forming as a thin sheet 10 50 cm thick just above the water table in the subsurface of a barrier dune terrain in south western australia the calcrete is forming in response to the regional evapo transpirative regime the annual rainfall is high but of short duration and it infiltrates rapidly into the sandy substrates relatively high air temperatures and evaporation coupled with wind stress combine to produce a water vapor deficit across the dune terrain the vegetation responds by drawing upon phreatic water and pellicular water of the vadose zone thereby precipitating caco3 where plants are not drawing phreatic water calcrete is developing by evaporation of water at the top of the zone of capillary rise various structure types of calcrete are developed in the study area namely rhizoconcretionary mottled massive and laminar forms these occur in a definite stratigraphic sequence related to maturity of profile vegetation cover and thickness of the vadose zone rhizoconcretionary calcrete forms in the vadose zone mottled and massive calcrete frequently capped by laminar calcrete develop in the zone of capillary rise these latter calcrete types form a sheet that is ubiquitous and parallel to the water table since it is a feature of the water table the calcrete sheet may potentially transect regional stratigraphic boundaries and unconformities at the local level the various structural types of calcrete may he used as paleowater table indicators

confirmation of arabia plate slow motion by new gps data in yemen 1 during the last 10 years a network of about 30 gps sites was measured in djibouti east africa additional points were also measured in yemen oman ethiopia iran and on la reunion island merged with data from the available international gps service permanent stations scattered on the different plates in the area eurasia anatolia africa arabia somalia this unique data set provides new insight on the current deformation in the africa somalia arabia triple junction area and on the arabian plate motion here we show that coherent motions of points in yemen bahrain oman and iran allow us to estimate a geodetically constrained angular velocity for the arabian plate 52 59 n 15 74 w 0 461 myr in itrf2000 this result differs significantly from earlier determinations and is based upon our vectors in yemen they provide new additional data and better geometry for angular velocity determination combined with the african and somalian motions this new angular velocity results in predicted spreading rates in the red sea and the gulf of aden which are 15 20 lower than those measured from oceanic magnetic anomalies and thus averaged over the last 3 myr with respect to eurasia the geodetic motion of arabia is also about 30 slower than predicted by nuvel 1a on the basis of the kinematic results presented here and on other evidence for a similar slower geodetic rate of the indian plate we suggest that the whole collision zone between africa arabia india on one hand and eurasia on the other hand has slowed down in the last 3 myr

temporal characteristics of some earthquake sequences in greece latoussakis j stavrakakis g drakopoulos j papanastassiou d and drakatos g 1991 temporal characteristics of some earthquake sequences in greece in m wyss editor earthquake prediction tectonophysics 193 299 310 temporal features of the aftershock activities following some moderate shallow earthquakes in greece have been studied by making use of the modified omori formula and akaike s information criterion aic although the main shocks occurred in different seismogenic regions in greece the aftershock activities show almost the same anomalous pattern in most cases the secondary aftershocks of the aftershock activity of the main event are preceded by seismic quiescence also in some cases the aftershock activity recovers to a normal level or increases beyond it prior to the occurrence of the large aftershock the observed temporal pattern may be useful in predicting a large aftershock which might be as large and destructive as the main shock if the aftershock activity is monitored immediately after the occurrence of the main shock

dual seismogenic behavior the 1985 central chile earthquake repeated leveling lines evidenced almost half a meter of uplift at coastal localities nearby the epicentral region of the march 3 1985 ms 7 8 central chile earthquake a tide gauge at valparaiso and two limnigraphs 27 km apart situated at the extremes of rapel lake to the south of the leveling line have been recording continuously sea level and the equipotential lake level for more than 10 years providing a permanent very long base tiltmeter water level difference at the two limnigraphs as a function of time resembles a ramp function beginning approximately at the time of the earthquake occurrence it has a rise time of approximately 10 months with a maximum amplitude of 120 mm or 4 4 radians in tilt the overall shape of the time dependent tilt is mimicked by the sea level signal recorded at valparaiso about 100 km away from rapel lake showing a maximum coastal subsidence of 0 6 m gravity surveys carried out in three different pre and postseismic epochs along the segment of the leveling line which shows major coseismic uplift indicate that the whole region has subsided postseismically 10 cm in five years simple two dimensional models for both co and postseismic stages indicate that at least 1 2 m of average fault displacement in ten months of postseismic movement along the contact between nazca and south america plates is responsible of the time dependent elevation changes 25 less of what was deduced with the same method for the coseismic stage

geodetic measurement of crustal motion in southwest china global positioning system measurements performed over a 2 4 yr period confirm the xianshuihe xiaojiang fault system as one of the primary active structures in southwest china stations southwest of these faults show southerly motions of 5 15 mm yr relative to the western sichuan basin and stations in a 200 km geodetic network located northwest of the basin move at only 0 5 mm yr these results are consistent with clockwise rotation of southwestern sichuan and western yunnan about the eastern tibetan syntaxis accommodated by left lateral slip of 12 4 mm yr on the xianshuihe xiaojiang fault system the results imply that if eastward extrusion of crustal material from the plateau occurs at present it is not accommodated by east west shortening along the margin of the plateau and must involve wholesale eastward motion of low lying regions to the east

low frequency source characteristics of the great 1960 chilean earthquake the low frequency nature of the great 1960 chilean earthquake the earth s largest recorded event is characterized and a source model composed of three events with a combined seismic moment of 5 5 1023 n m and a duration of 1500 s is presented the results show conclusively that large scale slip which is only observed at low frequencies preceded the main shock complex amplitude measurements of normal mode data in the band 1 0 5 0 mhz recorded at eight vertical component stations comprise the data set in this band the earthquake source is assumed to be described by a line source propagating at a constant rupture velocity the data set is the basis for a sequence of least squares inversions to determine the seismic moment rupture velocity spatial slip distribution and the temporal slip function the data are best explained by a source model that begins 1150 s before the main shock with an event of moment 1 9 1023 n m and rise time of 300 s a main shock with moment of 3 2 1023 n m and for which most of the low frequency energy was released beginning about 50 s after the short period origin time and an event 350 s later with moment of 0 4 1023 n m the uncertainty in the moment estimate of the great 1960 chilean earthquake is about 50 and is due primarily to the probable range of fault plane dip which is not well constrained at this time

contributions to the history of geomorphology and quaternary geology an introduction this special publication deals with various aspects of the histories of geomorphology and quaternary geology in different parts of the world geomorphology is the study of landforms and the processes that shape them past and present quaternary geology studies the sediments and associated materials that have come to mantle much of earth s surface during the relatively recent pleistocene and holocene epochs geomorphology with its concern for earth s surface features and processes deals with information that is much more amenable to observation and measurement than is the case for most geological work quaternary geology focuses mostly but not exclusively on the earth s surficial sedimentary cover which is usually more accessible than the harder rocks of the deeper past institutionally geomorphology is usually situated alongside or within academic departments of geology or geography in most english speaking countries its links are more likely to be with geography but in the united states these connections are usually shared between geography and geology although rarely in the same institution in leading institutions everywhere strong links exist between geomorphology and such cognate disciplines as soil science hydrology oceanography and civil engineering although nominally part of geology quaternary geology also has strong links with geography and with those disciplines such as climatology botany zoology and archaeology concerned with environmental change through the relatively recent past given that geomorphology concerns the study of the earth s surface i e landforms and their origin evolution and the processes that shape them and that the uppermost strata are in many cases of pleistocene and holocene age it is unsurprising that this special publication should deal promiscuously with topics in both geomorphology and quaternary studies this particular selection has been developed from a nucleus of papers presented at a conference on the histories of geomorphology and quaternary geology held in the baltic states

precursory seismic quiescence seventeen cases of precursory seismic quiescence to mainshocks with magnitudes fromml 4 7 toms 8 0 are summarized the amount of rate decrease ranges from 45 to 90 the significance of these changes varies between 90 and 99 99 the assumption that the background rate is approximately constant is fulfilled in most crustal volumes studied all quiescence anomalies seem to have abrupt beginnings and the rate during the anomalous period is fairly constant the duration of the precursors ranges from 15 to 75 months and it is not clear what factors determine that time at least three successful predictions have been based on seismic quiescence these cases have shown that mainshocks can be predicted based on quiescence but they have also shown that the interpretation of the data in real time is difficult and nonunique if a false alarm is defined as a period of quiescence with a significance level larger than a precursory quiescence in the same tectonic area then we estimate based on searches in four areas that the false alarm rate may be on the order of 50 failure to predict may be expected in perhaps 50 of mainshocks even in carefully monitored areas quiescence cannot be used as a precursor in tectonic environments with low seismic activity most characteristics of the phenomenon are still poorly defined but data exist which probably permit at least a doubling of the presently available data on case histories

constraints on present day shortening rate across the central eastern andes from gps data two years of continuous gps data from several sites in south america indicate that arequipa in the southern peruvian andes has a velocity of 13 3 mm yr two standard errors to the northeast with respect to stable south america we interpret these data as reflecting a combination of elastic strain accumulation associated with a locked nazca south america subduction zone and a small amount of crustal shortening across the fold and thrust belt on the eastern margin of the andes models of elastic strain accumulation for fully locked and partly locked subduction zones constrain shortening in the eastern andes to 0 3 mm yr fully locked and 0 12 mm yr partly locked slower than some geologic estimates averaged over millions of years

seismic quiescence a test of the hypothesis and a precursor to the next parkfield california earthquake summary the parkfield segment of the san andreas fault shows seismic quiescence for m 2 0 earthquakes since early to mid 1986 the rate decreases by 45 to 70 per cent depending on the magnitude band we interpret this change as real because it is concentrated in the larger magnitudes and cannot be explained by a reasonable magnitude shift the rate decrease is present in the parkfield segment of the fault between 35 6 and 36 1 n and no other rate change as significant has been observed during the time when high quality data were available since 1975 we interpret this observation as a seismic quiescence precursor to the next parkfield mainshock although information on the expected duration of precursory quiescence is weak we estimate that the parkfield earthquake should occur in the interval 1990 february to 1992 february precursory seismic quiescence which lasted approximately 1 5 yr was found in and possibly around the source volume of an earthquake withm 3 6 which occurred on 1986 august 29 in the parkfield area this observation demonstrates that the quiescence hypothesis is applicable to the parkfield segment of the san andreas fault the false alarm rate was estimated in a detailed analysis as a function of alarm level for the fault segments surrounding the m 5 0 stone canyon 1982 august and m 3 6 parkfield 1986 august mainshocks for these two events the duration and statistical significance of false alarms as a function of space time and magnitude band was determined we propose that in this tectonic environment and with the data characteristics of these earthquake catalogues attempts to predict mainshocks based on the quiescence hypothesis may be successful and generate one to two false alarms covering about 10 per cent of the time space dimensions of the catalogue

uplift of the central andean plateau and bending of the bolivian orocline the topography of the central andes can be considered the primary tectonic signal of late cenozoic mountain building in an arid region where the effects of uplift and magmatism are little obscured by denudation the spatial coverage of the topographic signal is more complete than that for sparsely sampled geological and geophysical data a color coded image of digitized topography between 12 s and 37 s highlights the altiplano puna one of the world s most remarkable plateaus and reveals important physiographic clues about the formation of that major feature the topographic data combined with information on structure magmatism seismicity and paleomagnetism support a simple kinematical model for the late cenozoic evolution of the central andes the model does not require collisional effects or enormous volumes of intrusive additions to the crust but instead calls upon plausible amounts of crustal shortening and lithospheric thinning the model interrelates andean uplift a changing geometry of the subducted nazca plate and a changing outline in map view of the leading edge of the south american plate crustal shortening has accommodated convergence between the chilean peruvian forearc and the south american foreland the altiplano puna plateau can be constructed by a combination of crustal shortening and thickening and lithospheric thinning above a shallow dipping 20 30 subducted plate the seawardly concave bend of western south america the bolivian orocline was enhanced but not completely produced by an along strike variation in the amount of late cenozoic shortening maximum shortening in bolivia both produced the widest part of the plateau and increased the seaward concavity of the bolivian orocline the along strike variations of shortening are hypothesized to result from corresponding along strike variations in the width of a weakened zone in the overriding plate weakening occurs above the wedge of asthenosphere located between the subducted and overriding plates hence the width of the zone of weakening depends upon the dip of the subducted plate two types of shortening are recognized 1 a widespread basin and range laramide like shortening that characterizes modem activity in the sierras pampeanas and late miocene deformation of the altiplano puna and 2 on the eastern side of the cordilleras and plateau an east verging foreland fold thrust belt in which the underthrust foreland compresses and thickens the ductile lower crust and produces a plateau uplift of the upper crust the second type of shortening can be applied to plio quaternary deformations throughout the central andes but with a substantial narrowing of the region of plateau uplift in peru and south of 28 s a proposed monoclinal flexure of the upper crust on the western side of the plateau uplift explains the remarkably simple and regular morphology of the main western slope of the central andes the monocline is located above the tip of the asthenospheric wedge between the converging plates it is postulated to occur above the western limit of lower crustal thickening in the regions of horizontal subduction the monocline can be associated with a late miocene asthenospheric wedge tip

earthquake recurrence and magnitude and seismic deformation of the northwestern okhotsk plate northeast russia 1 recorded seismicity from the northwestern okhotsk plate northeast asia is currently insufficient to account for the predicted slip rates along its boundaries due to plate tectonics however the magnitude frequency relationship for earthquakes from the region suggests that larger earthquakes are possible in the future and that events of mw 7 5 which should occur every 100 350 years would account for almost all the slip of the plate along its boundaries due to eurasia north america convergence we use models for seismic slip distribution along the bounding faults of okhotsk to conclude that relatively little aseismic strain release is occurring and that larger future earthquakes are likely in the region our models broadly support the idea of a single okhotsk plate with the large majority of tectonic strain released along its boundaries

long term landscape evolution in australia the main features of the australian physical landscape are of the order of 107 108 years old this contradicts the widely held view that little of the earth s topography predates the quaternary and that erosion cycles are carried to planation within tens of millions of years much of the australian landscape must have developed over similar timescales to that of the tectonic evolution of the continent itself the study of the geomorphology of such ancient terrains may therefore be seriously deficient unless it is considered within the context of continental scale tectonic development application of this approach shows that there are strong links between the geomorphology of australia and plate movements ocean spreading plate convergence tectonostratigraphic terranes orogenesis and epeirogenesis the most important factor contributing to the survival of ancient landscapes in australia is the low rate of denudation which the continent has experienced during the mesozoic and cenozoic this is largely a consequence of orogenic stability although the absence of significant quaternary glaciation may also be of importance however in order for landforms to have survived over such timespans denudation must not only have been low but must also have been highly localized over space and time this has been the case both on a regional scale with long term denudation rates of 0 2 m ma 1 in central australia contrasting with higher rates along the continental margins and on a local scale with denudation confined to valleys leaving divides and interfluves almost unscathed

plate motions in the north andean region repeated geodetic measurements with the global positioning system gps provide direct measurements of displacements due to plate motions and active crustal deformation in central america and northern south america an area of complex interaction of the nazca cocos caribbean and south american plates the displacement rates for the period 1988 1991 obtained from the results of the first three central and south america casa gps campaigns are in general agreement with the predictions of the nuvel 1 plate motion model but there are differences in detail between the observations and the model the nazca north andes convergence rate vector measured by gps is different from the nuvel 1 vector at 95 confidence the difference implies that the north andes are moving northward relative to south america the measured convergence between the caribbean plate and the north andes suggests that the southern margin of the caribbean plate is located in the south caribbean deformed belt the april 1991 costa rica earthquake and the cocos caribbean convergence rate determined by gps suggest the possibility of significant ongoing deformation between central america and the stable interior of the caribbean plate our gps results are consistent with deformation of the overriding plates at the convergent margins of central and south america and confirm that active convergence is occurring around much of the southern margin of the caribbean plate from colombia west to costa rica costa rica and panama are not part of the stable caribbean plate instead the south caribbean deformed belt and the north panama fold belt probably represent the southern margin of the caribbean plate

nonuniform seismic slip rates along the middle america trench revised estimates of seismic slip rates along the middle america trench are lower on the average than plate convergence rates but match them locally for example oaxaca along the cocos north american plate boundary this can be explained by nonuniformities in slip at points of aseismic ridge or fracture zone subduction for at least 81 yr and possibly several hundred years no major m sub s or 7 5 shallow earthquake is known to have occurred near the orozco fracture zone and tehuantepec ridge areas compared with the average recurrence periods for large earthquakes 33 8 yr since 1898 and 35 24 yr between 1542 and 1979 this suggests that either a large m or 8 4 event may be anticipated at such locations or that these are points of aseismic subduction large coastal terraces and evidence suggesting tectonic uplift are found onshore near the orozco fracture zone the larger discrepancy between plate convergence and seismic slip rates along the cocos carribbean plate boundary is more likely due to decoupling and downbending of the subducted plate we used the limited statistical evidence available to characterize both spatial and temporal deficiencies in recent seismic slip the observations appear consistent with a possible forthcoming episodemore of more intense seismic activity based on a series of comparisons with carefully delineated aftershock zones we conclude that the zones of anomalous seismic activity can be indentified by a systematic automated analysis of the worldwide earthquake catalog m sub b or 4 less

a comparison of satellite laser ranging and seismicity data in the aegean region in this study we compare the strain rates obtained from earthquake moment tensors in the time interval 1911 92 in greece with measured velocities of slr stations relative to eurasia we find that the slr measurements do not require strain different in orientation from that seen in the earthquakes but simply more of it the clearest deficit is in the se aegean where earthquakes this century can account for virtually none of the measured slr strain rates by contrast in the northern aegean and nw turkey the earthquakes can account for a substantial part 50 of the measured strain rates by using both geodetic and seismic data to localize apparent deficits in seismically released strain this study represents a first step towards using space based geodesy for crude regional seismic risk assessment

relatively recent construction of the tien shan inferred from gps measurements of present day crustal deformation rates the tien shan a high seismically active intracontinental mountain belt 1 000 2 000 km north of the himalaya has grown as a result of india s collision with asia1 the crustal shortening 200 50 km refs 2 3 and thickening that gave rise to the tien shan accommodates only a small fraction of india s total penetration into asia 2 000 3 000km and the temporal relationship of deformation in this belt to the india asia collision remains unclear here we report geodetic measurements of the tien shan using the global positioning system gps that indicate that the current crustal shortening rate is nearly half of india s convergence rate with eurasia in this area4 we infer a total shortening rate for the tien shan of 20 mm yr 1 which is approximately twice that inferred previously from the extrapolation of slip rates in the holocene3 and earthquake induced displacements during this century5 suggesting that the rate of mountain building in this region has accelerated several fold since the onset of collision 50 55 myr ago6 7 if as we argue the current shortening rate can be extrapolated to geological timescales then our results suggest that most of the tien shan has been constructed during the past 10 myr perhaps in response to an increased horizontal force following an abrupt rise of the tibetan plateau8 9

gravity anomaly across the peruvian andes we carried out gravity surveys along four routes across the peruvian andes one in northern peru one in central peru and two in southern peru two of the routes extend from the coast to the flat lands of the amazon basin across the high andes while the other two routes extend only from the coast to the central high plateau or the altiplano one route through nazca contains 250 data points over a length of 800 km and thus offers one of the best gravity profiles across the andes this profile shows quite asymmetric gravity anomalies associated with the western cordillera and the eastern cordillera in marked contrast with the symmetric pattern of topographic profile using these profiles we constructed crustal models varying layer thicknesses rather than layer densities the crustal thickness has a maximum beneath the western cordillera although the maximum thickness varies from 45 km in northern peru to 55 km in central peru and 65 km in southern peru in contrast to the assumed thickness of 35 km beneath the stable brazilian shield possible effects of lateral variations of crustal and mantle densities tend to reduce the above estimates of maximum thickness the very shallow moho beneath the peruvian coast steeply deepens eastward in correspondence to the steep western slope of the andes the crust is thicker in the western cordillera than in the eastern cordillera the moho beneath the eastern cordillera tends to be relatively flat and shallows abruptly eastward across the sub andes the wadati benioff zone lies in general well below the model south american continental crust leaving a mantle wedge in between a notable exception is the nazca profile where the base of the model south american continental crust is in direct contact with the top of the wadati benioff zone this provides a direct evidence for uplifting of the buoyant slab with an aseismic ridge the nazca ridge at its top which tends to attach itself to the bottom of the continental crust we examined whether or not the load due to mountain topography is balanced with the buoyancy load due to excess mass of the crust in the andes the western cordillera is found to be approximately in isostatic equilibrium but the eastern cordillera is not this contrast in mechanical state and the difference in recent geology suggest that the western cordillera and the eastern cordillera have not uplifted through entirely the same tectonic process

space geodetic estimation of the nazca south america euler vector abstract gps data from four sites in the nazca plate easter island galapagos robinson crusoe and san felix islands and from five sites in the stable core of the south american plate enabled us to estimate the euler vector of the nazca plate with respect to south america the observed velocities of easter island 6 6 cm yr at 102 3 galapagos 5 1 cm yr at 90 0 robinson crusoe 6 6 cm yr at 80 1 and san felix 6 0 cm yr at 82 1 are significantly slower than the global plate model nuvel 1a velocites for those four sites our estimated euler pole is located at 48 8 n 91 7 w with a rate of 0 59 m y the nuvel 1a and earlier space geodetic studies give rotation rates that are 20 faster

global positioning system measurements from eastern tibet and their implications for india eurasia intercontinental deformation we present and interpret global positioning system gps measurements of crustal motions for the period 1991 1998 for a network encompassing the eastern part of the tibetan plateau and its foreland relative to a eurasian frame defined by minimizing the velocities of 16 gps stations in europe central asia and siberia stations within all parts of the plateau foreland in south china move 6 10 mm yr east southeast indicating that the eastward movement within the plateau is part of a broader eastward movement that involves the plateau and its eastern and northern foreland north of the plateau foreland stations move northeastward at 10 mm yr indicating that the northern boundary of the deformation zone lies north of the plateau with this realization of a eurasian frame the velocity of the gps station at bangalore in southern india implies that the northward motion of india is 5 12 mm yr slower than that predicted from the nuvel 1a plate reconstruction viewed relative to the south china block stations of the northeast plateau bounded on the north by the qilian shan and the altyn tagh fault move nne to ne with velocities ranging from 19 mm yr within the plateau to 5 11 mm yr in its foreland the altyn tagh fault shows left lateral slip of 10 mm yr at 95 e and shortening across the fault of 5 mm yr stations south and west of the xianshuihe xiaojiang fault system define a crustal fragment rotating clockwise at 10 mm yr relative to the south china block around the eastern himalayan syntaxis the gps measurements indicate no significant shortening 3 mm yr within the longmen shan of the central eastern plateau and its adjacent foreland although the longmen shan rise over 6 km in 100 km horizontal distance geological studies indicate that the deformational field was established diachronously in late miocene to pliocene time was characterized by no east west shortening of tibetan crust and has an inhomogeneous style of deformation resulting from a balance of different tectonic processes

some features of aftershock patterns in greece summary a quantitative study of 12 aftershock sequences which occurred in greece and the surrounding regions from 1971 to 1980 has been made the aim of the study was to investigate the temporal pattern of each aftershock sequence and to examine the possibility of predicting the largest aftershock the magnitudes of the main shocks were ml 5 0 the minimum and maximum numbers of aftershocks were 25 and 191 respectively the temporal analysis was performed using the modified omori formula and akaike information criterion first we examine the omori law to see if holds for the whole aftershock sequence second we examine the same data set in order to find out if there is any possibility of distinguishing two aftershock sequences as follows 1 the first must include all the shocks since the occurrence of the main event until the occurrence of the largest aftershock and 2 the second must include all events following the occurrence of the largest aftershock until the end of the aftershock activity in 10 cases out of 12 the model of two different aftershock sequences provides the best fit to the data the aftershock activity prior to the large aftershocks was then examined although the main shocks occurred in different seismogenic regions an almost identical behaviour of aftershock activity was observed the activity shows an appreciable decrease from the level expected from the modified omori formula also in some cases the aftershock activity recovers to a normal level or increases beyond it prior to the occurrence of the main aftershock these results seem to be independent of the magnitude of the large aftershock if the aftershock activity is monitored in real time this observed temporal pattern may be useful in predicting a large aftershock

seismic quiescence before the landers m 7 5 and big bear m 6 5 1992 earthquakes the landers earthquake of 28 june 1992 was preceded by a seismicity rate decrease of 75 in a volume approximately 11 by 23 by 15 km located adjacent to and north of the epicenter this anomaly started for all magnitude bands in january 1988 lasting 4 5 yr up to the mainshock a smaller volume 7 by 14 by 15 km to the south of the epicenter showed a seismicity rate decrease of 75 starting in november 1989 the big bear earthquake of the same day was preceded by a 100 decrease of the seismicity rate within a volume of approximately 13 by 22 by 15 km around the hypocenter this volume contained 192 earthquakes of m 1 6 during the background period of 9 yr but none during the 1 6 yr from december 1990 to 27 june 1992 the standard deviate z values characterizing these rate changes are very high 6 3 and 12 3 respectively and the anomalies are unique not surpassed in significance by any other rate decrease in portion of the southern california earthquake catalog examined 117 06 w to 115 40 w and 33 45 n to 35 10 n no seismicity rate change was found in the vicinity of the m 6 1 joshua tree earthquake of 23 april 1992 based on magnitude signatures and frequency magnitude analyses we conclude that the two quiescence anomalies could not have been due to a shift or a compression of the magnitude scale and we interpret them as precursor anomalies this analysis was carried out using the declustered earthquake catalog for the landers area with corrections of 0 2 and 0 1 august 1985 and may 1990 for two suspected magnitude shifts with a new visualization technique we can investigate the stability and changes of the seismicity rate as a function of time and space by mapping z values for rate changes at every time interval and in volumes centered on a dense grid of points latitude longitude this computer code furnishes an almost continuous sequence of smooth contour maps of the degree of rate changes any anomalies artificial or real may thus be defined accurately

oblique plate convergence slip vectors and forearc deformation slip vectors from thrust earthquakes at subduction zones where convergence is oblique to the trench often point between the directions of relative plate convergence and normal to the trench axis suggesting that oblique convergence is taken up by partial decoupling decoupling means that a component of arc parallel motion of the leading edge of the upper plate results in less oblique thrusting at the trench partial decoupling is modeled by partitioning of oblique convergence into slip on thrust and strike slip faults that are parallel to the trench and to each other and starting with a force equilibrium condition a relationship between the obliquity and the earthquake slip vector orientation is derived assuming that either fault slips when shear stress on it reaches a yield stress oblique slip parallel to the plate vector should occur on the thrust fault when obliquity is smaller than a critical angle for obliquity at or greater than this angle the stress on the strike slip fault is large enough to start it slipping and when both faults are active the arc parallel motion of the forearc deflects the slip vector back toward the trench normal if we assume that continued slip on either fault occurs at constant stress but the two faults can be at different stresses the slip vector will maintain a constant angle relative to the trench normal even when obliquity is larger than the critical angle this limiting angle of the slip vector called max measured relative to the trench normal is simply the arcsine of the ratio of the shear forces resisting slip on the strike slip and thrust faults a consequence is that when the obliquity exceeds max the slip vectors on the thrust fault are sensitive only to the thrust fault orientation and contain no information about the convergence direction between the plates slip vectors at the java trench southwest of sumatra show the relationship clearly with max 20 5 while slip vectors at the aleutian trench show the relationship less clearly with max 25 to 45 the greater angle at the aleutian trench suggests that the upper plate is stronger in the aleutian arc relative to the thrust fault than in the sumatran arc consistent with the sumatran arc being continental and having a well developed strike slip fault while the aleutian arc is oceanic and without a clear transcurrent fault slip vectors at the philippine trench which like sumatra has a large strike slip fault inboard of it tend to stay within 25 of the trench normal when obliquity is as large as 50 if obliquity exceeds max and continues to increase along a subduction zone the rate of motion of the forearc relative to the upper plate will vary with obliquity in which case the forearc sliver should extend or contract parallel to the arc from the geometry of modern island arcs arc parallel extension should be the more common and has been hypothesized for both sumatra and the aleutians on the basis of earthquake slip vectors and for these and other arcs from geological observations from estimates of max and the arc parallel gradients in obliquity arc parallel strain rates are estimated to be 1 to 3 10 8 yr for the sumatran forearc 2 to 6 10 8 yr for the aleutian forearc and 0 3 to 3 10 8 yr for the philippine forearc oblique convergence and subsequent arc parallel extension if accompanied by crustal thinning may provide an important yet little appreciated mechanism for bringing high grade metamorphic rocks to the surface of subduction complexes

velocity field of gps stations in the taiwan area abstract the 131 stations of the taiwan gps network were surveyed 4 6 times from 1990 to 1995 with dual frequency geodetic receivers the standard deviation of an observed baseline length with its linear trend removed is in the range of 6 10 mm for a 3 120 km long baseline the average rates of length change for all baselines of the network and those from nine continuously monitoring permanent stations are used in a least squares adjustment to estimate the velocities of the gps stations relative to paisha penghu situated at the chinese continental margin to the south of fengping in the northern coastal range the velocity vectors of stations in lanhsu lutao and the coastal range trend in the directions of 306 322 with rates of 56 82 mm yr in contrast there is a dramatic decrease in the rates to the north of fengping this may be caused by the motion along the ne sw trending thrusts which obliquely cut the northern coastal range a discontinuity of about 30 mm yr in the rates along with a remarkable change in the directions of station velocity is observed across the longitudinal valley then the moving directions gradually shift to the west for the stations in the western foothills in the kaohsiung pingtung coastal area the station velocities are even directed toward the southwest to the north of the peikang high the velocity vectors of the stations change direction from the west gradually to the north and finally to the east and southeast significant nw se extensional deformation is found in the ilan plain and northern taiwan in general the pattern of the velocity field for gps stations in the taiwan area is quite consistent with the directions of present day tectonic stress

gravitational viscoelastic postseismic relaxation on a layered spherical earth viscoelastic relaxation of a ductile asthenosphere underlying a purely elastic plate is a strong candidate process for explaining anomalous rates of crustal deformation observed following large earthquakes the nongravitational treatment of pollitz 1992 which is valid on a global scale and includes the effects of compressibility is here extended to permit the calculation of gravitational viscoelastic relaxation for a specified spherically layered viscoelastic rheology following an earthquake in an elastic layer the simple approximations we adopt make the resulting treatment particularly suitable for near field calculations for an asthenosphere with a maxwell rheology the effect of gravitational coupling is manifested only many relaxation times after the earthquake as obtained by previous investigators its effect is generally to speed up the long wavelength component of the relaxation process and attenuate the overall vertical displacement pattern several subtle features common to the relaxation behavior from several different fault types thrust rift and strike slip are identified the effect of gravitational coupling on horizontal displacements is consistent with flexure of the upper elastic plate driven by the corresponding effects on the vertical displacement stress diffusion away from the source region generally exhibits pulse like behavior which is dispersive in both space and time if the asthenosphere is confined to a relatively narrow channel then the dispersion branches governing relaxation are radically altered and stress diffusion effects far from the coseismic rupture zone exhibit a complicated time dependence reflecting the competing tendencies of toroidal and spheroidal mode relaxation

global plate velocities from the global positioning system we have analyzed 204 days of global positioning system gps data from the global gps network spanning january 1991 through march 1996 on the basis of these gps coordinate solutions we have estimated velocities for 38 sites mostly located on the interiors of the africa antarctica australia eurasia nazca north america pacific and south america plates the uncertainties of the horizontal velocity components range from 1 2 to 5 0 mm yr with the exception of sites on the pacific and nazca plates the gps velocities agree with absolute plate model predictions within 95 confidence for most of the sites in north america antarctica and eurasia the agreement is better than 2 mm yr we find no persuasive evidence for significant vertical motions 3 standard deviations except at four sites three of these four were sites constrained to geodetic reference frame velocities the gps velocities were then used to estimate angular velocities for eight tectonic plates absolute angular velocities derived from the gps data agree with the no net rotation nnr nuvel 1a model within 95 confidence except for the pacific plate our pole of rotation for the pacific plate lies 11 5 west of the nnr nuvel 1a pole with an angular speed 10 faster our relative angular velocities agree with nuvel 1a except for some involving the pacific plate while our pacific north america angular velocity differs significantly from nuvel 1a our model and nuvel 1a predict very small differences in relative motion along the pacific north america plate boundary itself our pacific australia and pacific eurasia angular velocities are significantly faster than nuvel 1a predicting more rapid convergence at these two plate boundaries along the east pacific rise our pacific nazca angular velocity agrees in both rate and azimuth with nuvel 1a

plate motion and crustal deformation estimated with geodetic data from the global positioning system we use geodetic data taken over four years with the global positioning system gps to estimate 1 motion between six major plates and 2 motion relative to these plates of ten sites in plate boundary zones the degree of consistency between geodetic velocities and rigid plates requires the one dimensional standard errors in horizontal velocities to be 2 mm yr each of the 15 angular velocities describing motion between plate pairs that we estimate with gps differs insignificantly from the corresponding angular velocity in global plate motion model nuvel 1a which averages motion over the past 3 m y the motion of the pacific plate relative to both the eurasian and north american plates is observed to be faster than predicted by nuvel 1a supporting the inference from very long baseline interferometry vlbi that motion of the pacific plate has sped up over the past few m y the eurasia north america pole of rotation is estimated to be north of nuvel 1a consistent with the independent hypothesis that the pole has recently migrated northward across northeast asia to near the lena river delta victoria which lies above the main thrust at the cascadia subduction zone moves relative to the interior of the overriding plate at 30 of the velocity of the subducting plate reinforcing the conclusion that the thrust there is locked beneath the continental shelf and slope

space geodetic measurement of crustal deformation in central and southern california 1984 1992 we estimate the velocity field in central and southern california using global positioning system gps observations from 1986 to 1992 and very long baseline interferometry vlbi observations from 1984 to 1991 our core network includes 12 gps sites spaced approximately 50 km apart mostly in the western transverse ranges and the coastal borderlands the precision and accuracy of the relative horizontal velocities estimated for these core stations are adequately described by a 95 confidence ellipse with a semiminor axis of approximately 2 mm yr oriented roughly north south and a semimajor axis of approximately 3 mm yr oriented east west

deformation of convergent plates evidence from discrepancies between gps velocities and rigid plate motions 1 systematic discrepancies between the global positioning system gps site velocities and those predicted by plate motion models across the andes the himalayan tibetan plateau and the taiwan orogen delineate diffuse plate boundary deformation and significant intraplate deformation even in the presumably rigid oceanic plates the relationship between the gps velocities and the predictions of plate motion models is illustrated using a simple timescale dependent mechanical model of plate convergence a simple stiffness number based on the difference between the predictions of plate motion models and the gps velocity near plate boundaries provides a convenient measure of the plate like behavior of convergent plates and strain partitioning between intraplate and interplate deformation

relative seismic quiescence before large aftershocks in terms of the modified omori s formula and akaike s information criterion thirteen aftershock sequences have been analysed quantitatively to check if any anomalous change of seismic activity took place before the occurrence of the largest aftershock the analysis follows the method proposed by the epicentre distribution of the main shocks covers the aegean sea greece area and the surrounding regions the earthquakes occurred from 1988 to 1998 although difficulties existed for a quantitative treatment of seismic quiescence the results of the temporal analysis of the aftershock activities seem to be promising in eight of thirteen cases the observed temporal pattern is similar the aftershock activity decreases significantly before the occurrence of the largest aftershock with respect to the level expected according to the modified omori s formula thereafter the activity recovers to its previous level just before or immediately after the occurrence of the main aftershock moreover an estimation of the reliability of the method is made based on the results of this study as well as of previous similar investigations from a total of 41 aftershock sequences which have been analysed following matsu ura s method 29 of them 71 show a remarkable relative quiescence before the occurrence of the main shock although it is difficult to construct a model which explains the precursory pattern the real time monitoring and check for seismic quiescence could at least contribute to a qualitative prediction of the largest aftershock which could at times be as large and disastrous as the main shock

the aftershock sequence of the 2008 achaia greece earthquake joint analysis of seismicity relocation and persistent scatterers interferometry on 8 june 2008 an earthquake of mw6 4 took place in the northwestern part of peloponnese greece the main shock was felt in a wide area and caused appreciable damage along the main rupture area and particularly at the antipodal of the main shock epicenter fault edge implying strongly unilateral rupture and stopping phase effects abundant aftershocks were recorded within an area of 50 km in length in the period 8 june 2008 end of 2014 by a sufficient number of stations that secure location accuracy because the regional network is adequately dense in the area all the available phases from seismological stations in epicentral distances up to 140 km until the end of 2014 were used for relocation with the double difference technique and waveform cross correlation a quite clear 3 d representation is obtained for the aftershock zone geometry and dimensions revealing the main rupture and the activated adjacent fault segments sar data are processed using stanford method for persistent scatterers stamps and a surface deformation map constructed based on ps point displacement for the coseismic period a variable slip model with maximum slip of 1 0 m located at the lower part of the rupture plane is suggested and used for calculating the deformation field which was found in adequate agreement with geodetic measurements with the same slip model the static stress changes were calculated evidencing possible triggering of the neighboring faults that were brought closer to failure the data availability allowed monitoring the temporal variation of b values that after a continuous increase in the first 5 days returned and stabilized to 1 0 1 1 in the following years the fluctuation duration is considered as the equivalent time for fault healing which appeared very short but in full accordance with the cessation of onto fault seismicity

a tale of two continents some tectonic contrasts between the central andes and the north american cordillera as illustrated by their paleomagnetic signatures comparison of patterns of paleomagnetic poles from orogenic belts with appropriate reference poles for the craton can help to delineate important large scale tectonic processes comparison of the paleomagnetic signatures of the western cordillera of north america and the central andes shows that the western edges of these belts have had profoundly different mesozoic and cenozoic histories specifically the north american cordilleran pattern shows strong evidence of post middle cretaceous relative northward displacement of outboard crustal blocks but there is almost no comparable evidence of margin parallel displacement in the andes we speculate that this may largely be a consequence of a simple difference in shape the convex westward western margin of north america facilitates margin parallel displacement as a response to oblique subduction whereas the concave westward margin of south america inhibits it the patterns of block rotations found along the western edge of the two orogens also are quite different nearly everywhere within the western north american cordillera crustal blocks have rotated clockwise since mid cretaceous time reflecting a pervading state of dextral shear within the western andes of peru and northern chile however mesozoic and cenozoic rocks in peru and northernmost chile are rotated strongly counterclockwise whereas rocks of the same age in the remainder of chile to about latitude 48 s are rotated clockwise a model combining oroclinal bending and block rotations driven by oblique subduction can account for the paleomagnetic observations

the nazca south america convergence rate and the recurrence of the great 1960 chilean earthquake the seismic slip rate along the chile trench estimated from the slip in the great 1960 earthquake and the recurrence history of major earthquakes has been interpreted as consistent with the subduction rate of the nazca plate beneath south america the convergence rate estimated from global relative plate motion models depends significantly on closure of the nazca antarctica south america circuit nuvel 1 a new plate motion model which incorporates recently determined spreading rates on the chile rise shows that the average convergence rate over the last three million years is slower than previously estimated if this time averaged convergence rate provides an appropriate upper bound for the seismic slip rate either the characteristic chilean subduction earthquake is smaller than the 1960 event the average recurrence interval is greater than observed in the last 400 years or both these observations bear out the nonuniformity of plate motions on various time scales the variability in characteristic subduction zone earthquake size and the limitations of recurrence time estimates

lower bound on the amount of crustal shortening in the central bolivian andes balanced cross sections across the cordillera oriental and subandean zone of the central bolivian andes indicate that crustal shortening probably has played the dominant role in orogeny in this convergent margin setting a minimum amount of shortening 210 km is documented which can account for two thirds of the present day crustal cross sectional area along a transect spanning the entire mountain range substantial crustal shortening may also require loss of the lower lithosphere to the asthenosphere a large minimum amount of crustal shortening in the bolivian andes shows contrary to common assumptions about orogeny that 1 magmatic addition may be volumetrically less important in orogeny in andean type margins and 2 crustal shortening is not uniquely associated with continental or island arc collision

background seismicity rates and precursory seismic quiescence imperial valley california the problem of recognizing precursory seismicity rate changes consists of two steps first a background or normal rate must be determined and second anomalous rates must be recognized in this paper we address the first of these steps determining a background seismicity rate two problems must be dealt with if a meaningful background rate is to be determined first dependent events must be recognized and removed from consideration and second detection or reporting changes must be accounted for a number of techniques are available for recognizing dependent events we used the one developed by mcnally 1976 in this work the technique we used for recgonizing detection and reporting changes was developed by habermann 1983 we demonstrate these techniques on seismicity from the imperial valley region of california after a reasonable background rate is determined we examine seismicity rates in this region prior to the imperial valley earthquake of 15 october 1979 the source area of the earthquake shows a possible precursory quiescence which started during july 1979 the time of this rate decrease is close to the time of a change in the seismic instrumentation in the imperial valley which makes it difficult to determine whether the decrease is real or related to detection several other seismicity rate changes observed in the imperial valley appear to be related to changes in the operation of the network there these include quiescent periods which occur only if magnitude cutoffs are applied to the data and periods of low reporting of events with m 2 5 these observations suggest that magnitudes were not reported for some events during several time periods all of these observations indicate that determination of detection histories is crucial for meaningful seismicity studies

no net rotation model of current plate velocities incorporating plate motion model nuvel 1 we present nnr nuvel1 a model of plate velocities relative to the unique reference frame defined by requiring no net rotation of the lithosphere while constraining relative plate velocities to equal those in global plate motion model nuvel 1 demets et al 1990 differences between nnr nuvel1 and no net rotation plate motion model am0 2 minster and jordan 1978 are as large as 15 mm yr in nnr nuvel1 the pacific plate rotates in a right handed sense relative to the no net rotation reference frame at 0 67 m y about 63 s 107 e this rotation nearly parallels but is 32 slower than the pacific hotspot euler vector of hs2 nuvel1 which is a global model of plate hotspot velocities constrained to consistency with nuvel 1 gripp and gordon 1990 at hawaii the pacific plate moves relative to the no net rotation reference frame at 70 mm yr which is 25 mm yr slower than the pacific plate moves relative to the hotspots differences between nnr nuvel1 and hs2 nuvel1 are described completely by a right handed rotation of 0 33 m y about 49 s 65 e the 99 confidence ellipsoids for plate hotspot motion in model hs2 nuvel1 exclude the corresponding euler vectors from model nnr nuvell thus the no net rotation reference frame differs significantly from the hotspot reference frame if the difference between reference frames is caused by motion of the hotspots relative to a mean mantle reference frame then hotspots beneath the pacific plate move with coherent motion towards the east southeast alternatively the difference between reference frames may show that the uniform drag no net torque reference frame which is kinematically equivalent to the no net rotation reference frame is based on a dynamically incorrect premise possible exceptions to the assumption of uniform drag include a net torque on the lithosphere due to attached subducting slabs and greater resistance to plate motion beneath continents than beneath oceans

dynamic multifractality in earthquake time series insights from the corinth rift greece earthquake time series are widely used to characterize the main features of seismicity and to provide useful insights into the dynamics of the seismogenic system properties such as intermittency and non stationary clustering are common in earthquake time series such that multifractal concepts seem essential to describe the temporal clustering variability here we use a multifractal approach to study the time dynamics of the recent earthquake activity in the corinth rift the results indicate the degree of heterogeneous clustering and correlations acting at all time scales that suggest non poissonian behavior additionally the multifractal analysis in different time periods showed that the degree of multifractality exhibits strong variations with time which are associated with the dynamic evolution of the earthquake activity in the rift and the transition between periods of high and low seismicity

a reappraisal of seafloor spreading lineations in the gulf of california implications for the transfer of baja california to the pacific plate and estimates of pacific north america motion an analysis of seafloor spreading lineations in the southern gulf of california demonstrates that divergence of the baja peninsula from north america since 3 6 ma has been significantly slower than pacific north america pa na motion estimated solely from closures of global plate circuits this discrepancy remains unchanged or increases with modifications to the plate circuits and kinematic data used to predict pa na motion suggesting that it arises from the probably incorrect assumption that baja california has been rigidly coupled to the pacific plate since 3 6 ma a 15 increase in seafloor spreading rates in the southern gulf after 1 ma could have been caused by a transfer of motion along faults west of baja california to the modern day plate boundary or alternatively could indicate a recent speedup in pa na motion both interpretations imply that pa na motion is now 4 2 mm yr 1 2 faster than predicted by the 3 16 myr average nuvel 1a model

analysis of relaxation temporal patterns in greece through the retas model approach the temporal decay of eight aftershock sequences in the area of greece after 1975 was examined with main shocks magnitudes of mw 6 6 the analysis was done through the restricted epidemic type aftershock sequence retas stochastic model which enables the possibility to recognize the prevailing clustering pattern of the relaxation process in the examined areas in four of the cases the analysis selected the epidemic type aftershock sequence etas model to offer the most appropriate depiction of the aftershock temporal distribution which presumes that all shocks to the smallest ones in the sample can cause secondary aftershocks while for the rest of the sequences triggering potential seems to have aftershocks above a certain magnitude threshold retas model and they are expected to induce secondary activity the models developed on aftershock data were also applied to forecast real seismicity after the conclusion of the aftershock sequences for four out of eight cases we obtained promising estimations of ensuing seismicity after the end of the sequences with models based only on aftershock data some features of the retas model simulation were also studied like simulating magnitudes revealing that it is reasonable to consider in the model the temporal behavior of the aftershocks magnitudes as well stochastic modeling was also applied to estimate the duration of the relaxation process assuming that the end of each sequence is marked by the divergence of real seismicity from the modified omori formula mof model the latter known to represent pure aftershock activity the obtained results give an indication that possibly low stressing rate results in longer duration of the relaxation process in a region 2007 elsevier b v all rights reserved

decelerating nazca south america and nazca pacific plate motions space geodetic estimates of the rate of nazca south america convergence and nazca pacific spreading averaging over several years show that present day rates are significantly slower than the 3 million year average nuvel 1a model the implied rates of deceleration are consistent with longer term trends extending back to at least 20 ma about the time of initiation of andes growth and may reflect consequences of ongoing subduction and construction of the andes e g increased friction and viscous drag on the subducted slab as the leading edge of south america thickens

transition from aftershock to normal activity the 1965 rat islands earthquake aftershock sequence a transition from aftershock to normal activity is identified 2200 days after the occurrence of the 1965 rat islands earthquake of mw 8 7 after this time we observe a significant departure of the seismicity in the focal region from the extrapolated trend of the aftershock activity predicted by the modified omori formula proposed by utsu in 1961 the maximum likelihood estimate of the parameters for the formula and the selection of a statistical model based on the akaike information criterion show that the whole aftershock sequence is best modeled by the combination of an ordinary aftershock sequence and secondary aftershock activity associated with the largest aftershock fitting of the activity after the transition period to the modified omori formula results in an unusually low value of the decay constant we interpret that this activity represents normal or background seismicity and not another secondary aftershock sequence defining background activity in a focal region of a large earthquake is essential for detection of seismic quiescence prior to the next major event

circum pacific seismic potential 1989 1999 the seismic potential for 96 segments of simple plate boundaries around the circum pacific region is presented in terms of the conditional probability for the occurrence of either large or great interplate earthquakes during the next 5 10 and 20 years i e 1989 1994 1989 1999 and 1989 2009 this study represents the first probabilistic summary of seismic potential on this scale and involves the comparison of plate boundary segments that exhibit varying recurrence times magnitudes and tectonic regimes presenting these data in a probabilistic framework provides a basis for the uniform comparison of seismic hazard between these differing fault segments as well as accounting for individual variations in recurrence time along a specific fault segment and uncertainties in the determination of the average recurrence time

a dislocation model of strain accumulation and release at a subduction zone strain accumulation and release at a subduction zone are attributed to stick slip on the main thrust zone and steady aseismic slip on the remainder of the plate interface this process can be described as a superposition of steady state subduction and a repetitive cycle of slip on the main thrust zone consisting of steady normal slip at the plate convergence rate plus occasional thrust events that recover the accumulated normal slip because steady state subduction does not contribute to the deformation at the free surface deformation observed there is completely equivalent to that produced by the slip cycle alone the response to that slip is simply the response of a particular earth model to embedded dislocations for a purely elastic earth model the deformation cycle consists of a coseismic offset followed by a linear in time recovery to the initial value during the interval between earthquakes for an elastic viscoelastic earth model elastic lithosphere over a viscoelastic asthenosphere the postearthquake recovery is not linear in time records of local uplift as a function of time indicate that the long term postseimic recovery is approximately linear suggesting that elastic earth models are adequate to describe the deformation cycle however the deformation predicted for amore simple elastic half space earth does not reproduce the deformation observed along the subduction zones in japna at all well if stick slip is restricted to the main thrust zone as recognized earlier by shimazaki seno and kato the uplift profiles could be explained if stick slips were postulated to extend along the plate interface beyond the main thrust zone to a depth of perhaps 100 km but independent evidence suggests that stick slip at such depths if unlikely less

global positioning system measurements of indian plate motion and convergence across the lesser himalaya we use global positioning system gps measurements acquired from 1991 to 1995 to constrain the motion of sites in bangalore in southern india and kathmandu nepal relative to a global gps network these measurements permit estimates of the northward motion of the indian plate and convergence between the southern himalaya and the indian subcontinent the velocities of bangalore and kathmandu in the itrf92 reference frame agrees with that predicted by the nnr nuvel1a plate motion model for indian plate motion and differ from that predicted for the australian plate confirming the independent motion of the indian and australian plate fragments no significant motion was detected between bangalore and kathmandu during the three years from 1991 1994 even though kathmandu is located in the hanging wall of the active himalayan thrust system the himalayan thrust system is thought to accommodate 18 7 mm yr of convergence and has been the source of several historic m 8 earthquakes the absence of motion of kathmandu relative to the indian plate can be explained if the thrust system is presently locked south of the greater himalaya our preferred model has no steady slip on the detachment south of the greater himalaya and steady slip at a rate greater than 6 mm yr 1 3 of the long term convergence rate can be ruled out at 95 confidence level

crustal shortening in the andes why do gps rates differ from geological rates gps data indicate 30 40 mm yr 1 present day crustal shortening across the andes whereas geological evidence shows crustal shortening concentrated in the sub andean thrust belt at a much lower rate 15 mm yr 1 we reconcile the discrepancy between the geodetic and the geological crustal shortening using geodynamic modeling that includes timescale dependent crustal deformation the gps velocities reflect the instantaneous deformation in the andes that includes both permanent deformation and elastic deformation that will be recovered during future earthquakes whereas the lower geological rates reflect only the permanent deformation the three dimensional viscoelastic model predicts nearly uniform short term velocity gradients across the andes similar to the gps results and concentrated long term crustal shortening in the sub andean thrust zone consistent with geological observations

gps measurements of present day convergence across the nepal himalaya the high elevations of the himalaya and tibet result from the continuing collision between india and asia which started more than 60 million years ago1 4 from geological and seismic studies of the slip rate of faults in asia5 it is believed that approximately one third of the present day convergence rate between india and asia 58 4mmyr 1 is responsible for the shortening uplift and moderate seismicity of the himalaya great earthquakes also occur infrequently in this region releasing in minutes the elastic strain accumulated near the boundary zone over several centuries and accounting for most of the advance of the himalaya over the plains of india the recurrence time for these great earthquakes is determined by the rate of slip of india beneath tibet which has hitherto been estimated indirectly from global plate motions6 from the slip rates of faults in asia7 8 from seismic productivity9 and from the advance of sediments on the northern ganges plain10 here we report geodetic measurements using the global positioning system gps of the rate of contraction across the himalaya which we find to be 17 52 2 mm yr 1 from the form of the deformation field we estimate the rate of slip of india beneath tibet to be 20 5 2 mmyr 1 strain sufficient to drive one or more great himalayan earthquakes with slip similar to that accompanying the magnitude 8 1 bihar nepal 1934 earthquake may currently be available in western nepal

seismic quiescence precursor to the 1983 kaoiki ms 6 6 hawaii earthquake a remarkable seismicity rate decrease of 65 per cent occurred in most of the aftershock volume 2 4 yr before the 1983 kaoiki ms 6 6 main shock if the background seismicity rate 1978 to mid 1981 is extrapolated to the time of the main shock more than 300 earthquakes of ml 1 8 are missing because of the quiescence subvolumes measuring 5 5 km on a side and located within the aftershock zone showed seismicity rate decreases ranging from 0 to 90 per cent the volume of no change had dimensions of approximately 10 3 km it contained the main shock hypocenter and was located near the center of the 10 km radius aftershock area the seismic quiescence in different subvolumes of the aftershock volume surrounding this central nonquiet zone varied somewhat in starting time amount of rate decrease and statistical significance according to the standard deviate z test the reported rate decrease is the most pronounced example of precursory quiescence defined to date the seismicity pattern before the 1983 kaoiki shock conformed to the quiescence hypothesis proposed on the basis of the precursors to the 1975 hawaii main shock no quiescence was observed within the immediate surrounding of the hypocenter while strong rate decreases occurred in most of the rest of the main shock source volume it is thus hypothesized that major asperities which contain high stress levels and from which main ruptures can emanate may be recognizable as volumes of constant seismicity rate within surrounding volumes of quiescence provided that decreases of seismicity rate as a function of time can be defined quantitatively

analysis of the temporal properties of greek aftershock sequences abstract the temporal distribution of aftershock sequences can be analyzed by means of new parameters other than the omori s p value a deep analysis of the temporal properties of six aftershock sequences occurred in greece from 1980 to 1997 has been carried out by means of fractal tools we performed the omori s law the r s and the allan factor analyses in order to estimate the p value of the aftershock rate the hurst exponent h of the interevent time series and the spectral exponent respectively our results show a significant variability of the p value from 0 89 to 1 48 of h from 0 78 to 1 186 and of from 0 49 to 1 44 the variation of the normalized with the threshold magnitude for all the aftershock sequences examined has displayed almost the same decreasing behaviour the temporal fractality of aftershock sequences is primarily due to the power law decay of the aftershock rate

the elevation history of the tibetan plateau and its implications for the asian monsoon abstract the determination of the evolving palaeoaltitude of the tibetan plateau since the india eurasia collision underpins our understanding of how orography in central asia affects the intensity of the monsoon and hence global climate change palaeoaltitudes however cannot be measured directly and need to be inferred from proxy observations that are usually model dependent differing tectonic models for the behaviour of the lithosphere during continental collision have contrasting implications for the elevation of the plateau however two techniques recently employed for determining palaeo elevation are independent of tectonic models the first involving the variation with altitude of oxygen isotopes in precipitation and the second involving the change of leaf morphology with moist static energy of the atmosphere elevation studies have focused on southern tibet largely due to the relative ease of access to the region there is a remarkable unanimity amongst the diverse techniques applied that the altitude of the southern plateau has not significantly changed since at least the mid miocene ca 15 ma arguing for an onset of the monsoon system during or before the early miocene a range of tectonic studies suggest that the northern and eastern parts of the plateau are younger geomorphological features but there are few quantitative constraints of the timing of elevation from these regions of tibet since both the elevation and the surface area of the plateau impact on atmospheric circulation palaeoaltitude studies need to be extended to chart the increasing areas of elevated land surface through time

seismogenesis and earthquake triggering during the van turkey 2011 seismic sequence article i nfo article history a unique and very interesting earthquake of magnitude mw 7 2 occurred in the van region of turkey on october 23 2011 that caused a heavy loss of human lives and properties the earthquake occurred on a blind oblique thrust fault oriented towards the ne sw direction and dipping towards nw as evidenced by focal mechanism solution and aftershock distribution in this study we analyzed the seismogenesis and earthquake triggering during this sequence with the help of estimated seismological parameters b value of frequency magnitude relation p value of aftershocks temporal decay and d value of fractal dimension 2d mapping of b and p values 3d mapping of b value and coseismic coulomb stress modeling the estimat ed seismic b value equal to 0 89 reveals that the mainshock occurred in a highly stressed region and sequence comprised larger magnitude aftershocks due to the presence of large size asperities within the rupture zone the normal estimate of p value 0 98 suggests a tectonic genesis of the aftershocks sequence the estimated d value equal to 1 80 reveals that rupture propagated in a two dimensional plane filled up by fractures the spatial 2d and 3d mapping of seismic b value suggests that the van earthquake originated in a highly hetero geneous fractured rock matrix with fluid intrusions into it at deeper depth beneath the mainshock hypocen ter region the estimated coseismic coulomb stress using the variable slip model for depth range 0 30 km exhibits a butterfly pattern and most of the aftershocks fall 90 in the region of enhanced coulomb stress this suggests that most of the aftershock activities have been triggered by transfer of positive coulomb stress due to coseismic slip of the mainshock the results estimated in the present study have potential useful im

seismicity fault plane solutions depth of faulting and active tectonics of the andes of peru ecuador and southern colombia the intracontinental seismicity of the andes of peru ecuador and southern colombia is concentrated along the easternmost flank of the cordillera beneath the western margin of the sub andes the focal depths and fault plane solutions of the largest events were constrained by comparing the observed long period p waves with synthetic waveforms in general the fault plane solutions show reverse faulting on steeply dipping nodal planes striking northwest southeast and reflect crustal shortening perpendicular to the range probably in response to the subduction of the nazca plate to the west earthquakes in the sub andes occur at depths of between 8 and 38 km indicating that much of the crust deforms in a brittle manner the seismicity seems to reflect antithetic underthrusting of the brazilian shield beneath the eastern margin of the andes however the earthquakes are too deep and their nodal planes are too steep to be associated with the thin skinned decollement of the sedimentary cover instead they appear to reflect the tectonic deformation of the underthrust basement west of the zone of active deformation at the surface in the sub andes hence the earthquakes on the east side of the andes may reflect the style of deformation in the hinterland of fold and thrust belts such as in the canadian rockies while much of the decollement farther east occurs aseismically in contrast normal faulting occurs in the high andes on planes parallel to the strike of the mountain belt thus there is a delicate balance between the compressive stress applied to the andes in the direction of subduction which causes thrust faulting in the sub andes and the gravitational body forces acting on the topographically higher parts and the crustal root of the andes which may cause normal faulting at high elevation

a spectral analysis of the 21 may 1997 jabalpur india earthquake mw 5 8 and estimation of ground motion from future earthquakes in the indian shield region the jabalpur earthquake 23 08 n 80 06 e h 36 km is the first event in the indian peninsular shield region to be well recorded by a newly installed 10 station broadband seismographic network using these data we estimate q of lg wave in the indian shield region as q 508 0 48 1 20 hz the corrected source spectrum with m 5 4 1024 dyne cm reported in the harvard cmt catalog and an 2 source model requires a stress parameter p of 420 bar to explain high frequency spectral level the computed seismic energy from the records is 7 4 1020 erg which yields an apparent stress and brune stress drop of 62 and 270 bars respectively the analysis of the jabalpur earthquake provides some elements for the estimation of ground motions during future earthquakes in the indian shield region based on the results of the jabalpur earthquake and on studies of tectonically similar region of eastern north america we assume that 1 the sources follow an 2 model 2 s waves dominate at r 100 km and lg waves dominate at r 100 km 3 q f 508 0 48 4 the ground motion is a bandlimited finite duration gaussian white noise and 5 the effective duration of the ground motion equals 1 c 0 05 r where fc is the corner frequency we apply random vibration theory rvt to compute various measures of ground motion such as a max and v max at near source distances the source finiteness is approximately taken into account the attenuation curves for 5 5 mw 7 and for p of 100 400 bar are presented as expected the predicted values with p 420 bar agree reasonably well with the limited jabalpur data an a max of 150 gal is predicted in the epicentral region of this earthquake the predicted curves imply p 100 bar for the latur earthquake of 1993 mw 6 1 h 2 5 km to explain a max 1 g and the reported isoseismal intensities in the epicentral region for koyna earthquake of 1967 mw 6 3 the inferred a max and v max from isoseismal intensities and the recorded strong motions at the koyna dam site are in agreement with the prediction curves for p 100 bar the rvt predictions seem reasonable but need validation from more strong motion data which is presently lacking

active tectonics of the andes nearly 90 mm a 1 of relative plate convergence is absorbed in the andean plate boundary zone the pattern of active tectonics shows remarkable variations in the way in which the plate slip vector is partitioned into displacement and strain and the ways in which compatibility between different segments is solved along any traverse across the plate boundary zone the sum of relative velocities between points must equal the relative plate motion we have developed a kinematic synthesis of displacement and strain partitioning in the andes from 47 s to 5 n relevant for the last 5 ma based upon 1 relative plate motion deduced from oceanic circuits giving a roughly constant azimuth between 075 and 080 2 moment tensor solutions for over 120 crustal earthquakes since 1960 3 structural studies of deformed plio pleistocene rocks 4 topographic geomorphic studies 5 palaeomagnetic data and 6 geodetic data we recognize four neotectonic zones with subzones and boundary transfer zones that are partitioned in different ways these zones are not coincident with the classic zones defined by the presence or absence of a volcanic chain or differences in finite displacements and strains and tectonic form the long term segmentation and finite evolution of the andes may not occur in constantly defined segments in space and time in segment 1 47 39 s the slip vector is partitioned into roughly orthogonal benioff zone slip with large magnitude large slip surface earthquakes and both distributed dextral shear giving clockwise rotations of up to 50 and dextral slip in the curved liquine ofqui fault system giving 5 10 of anticlockwise fore arc rotation in segment 2 39 20 s the slip vector is partitioned into benioff zone slip roughly parallel with the slip vector andean crustal shortening and a very small component of dextral slip including that on the atacama fault system between 39 and 34 s a cross strike dextral transfer which deflects the chile trench and the volcanic arc absorbs the shortening contrast between segments 1 and 2 in segment 3 20 6 s the slip vector is partitioned into roughly orthogonal benioff zone slip crustal shortening sinistral trench parallel faulting and northeast southwest extension compatibility between segments 2 and 3 is maintained by the sinistral east southeast trending cochabamba shear zone and north trending dextral faults in segment 4 6 s to 5 n the slip vector is partitioned into roughly orthogonal benioff zone slip and dextral strike slip faulting in the fore arc and volcanic chain