twenty first century warming of a large antarctic ice shelf cavity by a redirected coastal current the redirection of warm water under the filchner ronne ice shelf during the second half of this century could cause the ice shelf base to melt at a rate 20 times higher than at present warm ocean currents are known to erode ice shelves from below but changes in currents can be forced by many different mechanisms leading to uncertain outcomes this study highlights the vulnerability to climate change of a small antarctic coastal region which has potentially severe consequences for the mass balance of a large antarctic ice shelf hellmer et al use climate modelling to show that the projected loss of sea ice in the weddell sea east of the antarctic peninsula leads to an increase in wind stress which in turn accelerates a warm ocean current far underneath the vast filchner ronne ice shelf the authors predict that the increased warmth could increase melt by a factor of 20 with possible consequences for ice stream dynamics in the east antarctic ice sheet the antarctic ice sheet loses mass at its fringes bordering the southern ocean at this boundary warm circumpolar water can override the continental slope front reaching the grounding line1 2 through submarine glacial troughs and causing high rates of melting at the deep ice shelf bases3 4 the interplay between ocean currents and continental bathymetry is therefore likely to influence future rates of ice mass loss here we show that a redirection of the coastal current into the filchner trough and underneath the filchner ronne ice shelf during the second half of the twenty first century would lead to increased movement of warm waters into the deep southern ice shelf cavity water temperatures in the cavity would increase by more than 2 degrees celsius and boost average basal melting from 0 2 metres or 82 billion tonnes per year to almost 4 metres or 1 600 billion tonnes per year our results which are based on the output of a coupled ice ocean model forced by a range of atmospheric outputs from the hadcm35 climate model suggest that the changes would be caused primarily by an increase in ocean surface stress in the southeastern weddell sea due to thinning of the formerly consolidated sea ice cover the projected ice loss at the base of the filchner ronne ice shelf represents 80 per cent of the present antarctic surface mass balance6 thus the quantification of basal mass loss under changing climate conditions is important for projections regarding the dynamics of antarctic ice streams and ice shelves and global sea level rise

has the ozone hole contributed to increased antarctic sea ice extent 1 since the 1970s sea ice extent has decreased dramatically in the northern hemisphere and increased slightly in the southern hemisphere a difference that is potentially explained by ozone depletion in the southern hemisphere stratosphere in this study we consider the impact of stratospheric ozone depletion on antarctic sea ice extent using a climate model forced with observed stratospheric ozone depletion from 1979 to 2005 contrary to expectations our model simulates a year round decrease in antarctic sea ice due to stratospheric ozone depletion the largest percentage sea ice decrease in our model occurs in the austral summer near the coast of antarctica due to a mechanism involving offshore ekman sea ice transport the largest absolute decrease is simulated in the austral winter away from the coast of antarctica in response to an ocean warming that is consistent with a poleward shift of thc large scale pattern of sea surface temperature our model results strongly suggest that processes not linked to stratospheric ozone depletion must be invoked to explain the observed increase in antarctic sea ice extent

seismically active fold and thrust belt in the san joaquin valley central california structural analysis of late cenozoic folds along the western and southern margins of the san joaquin basin suggests that the folds are related to development of a fold and thrust belt rather than to wrench tectonics the folds have formed by the processes of fault bend folding and fault propagation folding which commonly occur in fold and thrust belts our structural interpretation attributes the seismically active coalinga and kettleman hills north dome anticlines to fault bend folding above a thrust fault s that steps up from a detachment within the franciscan assemblage to a detachment at the base of the great valley group this thrust does not reach the surface blind thrust and its slip is consumed in backthrusting and formation of subsurface folds under the san joaquin valley movement on the postulated thrust s would explain the cause of the may 2 1983 coalinga earthquake and the august 15 1985 avenal earthquake and would account for the lack of significant surface rupture or shallow subsurface faulting during both earthquakes well documented examples of fault bend and fault propagation folding also occur at wheeler ridge in the san emigdio mountains and at kettleman hills south dome deformation associated with fold and thrust belts can be extremely complicated considerable fault movement can occur without accompanying surface rupture or shallow level faulting conversely surface rupture can occur that has no direct relationship to fault slip at depth an example would be flexural slip folding wherein the slip planes reach the surface but do not root into any significant faults at depth consequently traditional geologic approaches to seismic risk evaluation which rely largely on surface data are subject to numerous pitfalls when applied to fold and thrust belts our interpretation of the structural style that developed in central california during the late cenozoic requires that the strain associated with the transpressive motion between the pacific and north american plates be resolved into normal and tangential components thrust faulting and folding normal to the plate boundary and strike slip faulting parallel to the plate boundary san andreas fault the thrust faults root in a deecollement at the brittle ductile transition zone above which shortening is associated with folding and thrust faulting and beneath which shortening in the lower crust is accommodated by ductile processes of tectonic thickening or incipient subduction

contemporary changes in sediment yield in an alpine mountain basin due to afforestation the upper drome in france abstract the baurieres plain within the upper drome river basin was used to reconstruct recent changes in sediment supply in relation to changes in land use within an alpine catchment a considerable body of archival information is available furthermore the plain acts as a natural sediment trap and the reach basin interaction has not been disrupted by human activity based on archival data channel geometry measurements dendrogeomorphological and radionuclide analysis cs137 and unsupported pb210 the trends in channel change and sediment supply over the past two centuries are assessed and their causes are interpreted dendrogeomorphology and radionuclide profiles show that the floodplain is characterised by a decrease in sedimentation rate in the 1960s the ex pb210 profiles also suggest a spatial modification of the relative contribution in sediment supply of the catchment bedload yields are estimated to be at least 26 m3 km 2 year 1 between 1928 and 1996 based on an estimate of storage over a channel length of 11 5 km archival data concerning bedload removal from traps yields an estimate of 25 6 m3 km 2 year 1 between 1993 and 2001 these two values are very comparable suggesting no major modification in bedload transport within the reach during the 20th century if the bedload supply has not strongly decreased in the studied reach during this period the bedload sources have changed the volume of sediment stored in the beaurieres area between 1928 and 1996 corresponds to at least 40 of the sediment delivered by channel degradation from an upstream alluvial reach both changes in floodplain sedimentation as well as changes in bedload and suspended contributions from catchment sources are interpreted as responses to land use but also flow regime hillslope sediment production strongly decreased due to planned hillslope afforestation and torrent regulation at the end of the 19th century and spontaneous hillslope afforestation resulting from grazing decline mainly in the two decades following world war ii the observed change in suspended sediment supply which occurred around 1960 1965 has a clear synchronicity with spontaneous catchment afforestation following world war ii after this period a decrease in sediment supply a change in source but also a decrease in peak flow were observed changes in run off are complex and cannot be caused with only land use change flood hydrographs underwent peak decreases and duration increases through the 20th century because of increase in water retention capacity of the forested catchment in addition flood seasonality has changed with september and october flood events being much less frequent in the last part of the 20th century

an analytical model of hanging wall and footwall deformation at ramps on normal and thrust faults abstract we determine stress strain and structural evolution for an analytical model of moderate angle 10 20 ramps developed on both normal faults normal ramps and thrust faults thrust ramps in the model a frictionless sliding surface with ramp configuration separates two incompressible isotropic viscous half spaces of different viscosity hanging wall and footwall ramps are planar but ramp flat corners are locally rounded deformation is due solely to translation across the ramp and regional extension or shortening is ignored sliding down a normal ramp causes vertical extension and horizontal shortening in both the hanging wall and the footwall this conforms with reverse faults seen in experimental models of normal ramps the stress in the footwall has the same magnitude as that in the hanging wall but the footwall strain rate is reduced in magnitude by the ratio both a hanging wall syncline and a footwall anticline form the normal ramp migrates in front of the rising footwall at a rate v ss v where v is the sliding velocity but the ramp does not change shape the continuous ramp motion in the model may correspond to the creation of an extensional duplex or chaos zone in brittle rocks at a normal ramp mean compressive stress is lowered and deviatoric stress is raised favoring local faulting and fracture sliding up a thrust ramp causes stresses strain rates and strains of the opposite sign horizontal extension and vertical shortening in both walls is consistent with normal faulting both a hanging wall anticline and a footwall syncline form passively although the deviatoric stress is raised at the ramp so is the mean compressive stress inhibiting fracturing however the mean compressive stress is lowered on the adjacent flats favoring fracturing there

the evolution of a thrust fault system processes of rupture initiation propagation and termination in the 1980 el asnam algeria earthquake summary we discuss work completed to date on the 1980 algerian earthquake and introduce a description of the earthquake in terms of rupture propagation using the nomenclature of fracture mechanics field and teleseismic studies have shown the earthquake fault to be divided into three major thrust segments rupture began at the sw end of the system and propagated along successive segments geological sections reveal that different fault segments have suffered different amounts of displacement in the past the amount of geological displacement increases systematically from almost zero at the sw end of the fault to several hundred metres further ne faulting at the sw end is very young and appears to be extending the thrust system along strike the aftershock data of ouyed et al reveal that strike slip aftershocks occur beyond the sw end of the thrust fault these are accommodating compression by conjugate strike slip faulting on north and west trending planes this network of conjugate faults plays a crucial role in the initiation of major eathquakes on the thrust system and may be regarded as a plastic zone beyond the end of the thrust fault increasing horizontal stress causes the strike slip system to evolve into a zig zag network of thrusts which is partly controlled by the pre existing strike slip faults finally a through going thrust can develop and leads to catastrophic rupture along the main fault plane to describe the propagation of the main shock we extend aki s concept of geometric barriers and divide these into two types in conservative barriers the slip vector is common to both fault planes whereas in non conservative barriers the slip vectors are different on the two fault planes that meet at the barrier although both types of barrier arrest dynamic rupture only nonconservative barriers need produce aftershocks as off fault deformation is required to accommodate the difference in slip vectors by considering the aftershock zones as areas of distributed deformation we show that fracture toughness in the earth is not a material constant but is related to fault geometry and therefore changes as fault systems evolve the current south westwards growth of the el asnam thrust system can be seen as the latest phase in an evolution consisting of periods of along strike extension alternating with periods of increasing net displacement during which no fault growth occurs these two types of behaviour allow a segmented fault system to be produced

satellite observations of antarctic sea ice thickness and volume 1 we utilize satellite laser altimetry data from nasa s ice cloud and land elevation satellite icesat combined with passive microwave measurements to analyze basin wide changes in antarctic sea ice thickness and volume over a 5 year period from 2003 2008 sea ice thickness exhibits a small negative trend while area increases in the summer and fall balanced losses in thickness leading to small overall volume changes using a 5 year time series we show that only small ice thickness changes of less than 0 03 m yr and volume changes of 266 km3 yr and 160 km3 yr occurred for the spring and summer periods respectively these results are in stark contrast to the much greater observed losses in arctic sea ice volume and illustrate the different hemispheric changes of the polar sea ice covers in recent years the uncertainties in the calculated thickness and volume trends are large compared to the observed basin scale trends this masks the determination of a long term trend or cyclical variability in the sea ice cover it is found that lengthening of the observation time series along with better determination of the interannual variability of sea ice and snow densities will allow for a more statistically significant determination of long term sea ice thickness and volume trends in the southern ocean

ice shelf melt response to changing winds and glacier dynamics in the amundsen sea sector antarctica it has been suggested that the coastal southern ocean subsurface may warm over the 21st century in response to strengthening and poleward shifting winds with potential adverse effects on west antarctic glaciers however using a 1 128 ocean regional model that includes ice shelf cavities we find a more complex response to changing winds in the amundsen sea simulated offshore subsurface waters get colder under strengthened and poleward shifted winds representative of the sam projected trend the buoyancy driven circulation induced by ice shelf melt transports this cold offshore anomaly onto the continental shelf leading to cooling and decreased melt below 450 m in the vicinity of ice shelf fronts ekman pumping contributes to raise the isotherms in response to changing winds this effect overwhelms the horizontal transport of colder offshore waters at intermediate depths between 200 and 450 m and therefore increases melt rates in the upper part of the ice shelf cavities which reinforces the buoyancydriven circulation and further contributes to raise the isotherms then prescribing an extreme grounding line retreat projected for 2100 the total melt rates simulated underneath thwaites and pine island are multiplied by 2 5 such increase is explained by a larger ocean ice interface exposed to cdw which is then amplified by a stronger melt induced circulation along the ice draft our main conclusions are that 1 outputs from ocean models that do not represent ice shelf cavities e g cmip5 models should not be directly used to predict the thermal forcing of future ice shelf cavities 2 coupled ocean ice sheet models with a velocity dependent melt formulation are needed for future projections of glaciers experiencing a significant grounding line retreat

mean antarctic circumpolar current transport measured in drake passage the antarctic circumpolar current is an important component of the global climate system connecting the major ocean basins as it flows eastward around antarctica yet due to the paucity of data it remains unclear how much water is transported by the current between 2007 and 2011 flow through drake passage was continuously monitored with a line of moored instrumentation with unprecedented horizontal and temporal resolution annual mean near bottom currents are remarkably stable from year to year the mean depth independent or barotropic transport determined from the near bottom current meter records was 45 6 sv with an uncertainty of 8 9 sv summing the mean barotropic transport with the mean baroclinic transport relative to zero at the seafloor of 127 7 sv gives a total transport through drake passage of 173 3 sv this new measurement is 30 larger than the canonical value often used as the benchmark for global circulation and climate models

sea ice and iceberg dynamic interaction 1 a model of iceberg motion has been implemented in the los alamos sea ice model cice individual bergs are tracked under the influence of winds currents sea surface tilt coriolis and sea ice forcing in turn sea ice is affected by the presence of icebergs primarily as obstacles that cause the sea ice to ridge on the upstream side or create open water on the downstream side of the bergs open water formed near icebergs due to sea ice ridging and blocking of sea ice advection increases level and ridged ice downstream of the bergs through increased frazil ice formation resulting anomalies in sea ice area and thickness compared with a simulation without icebergs are transported with the sea ice flow expanding over time although local changes in the sea ice distribution may be important for smaller scale studies these anomalies are small compared with the total volume of sea ice and their effect on climate scale variables appears to be insignificant

warm ocean is eroding west antarctic ice sheet 1 satellite radar measurements show that ice shelves in pine island bay have thinned by up to 5 5 m yr 1 over the past decade the pattern of shelf thinning mirrors that of their grounded tributaries the pine island thwaites and smith glaciers and ocean currents on average 0 5 c warmer than freezing appear to be the source the synchronised imbalance of the inland glaciers is the result of reduced lateral and basal tractions at their termini and the drawdown of grounded ice shows that antarctica is more sensitive to changing climates than was previously considered

freshening of the ross sea during the late 20th century ocean measurements in the ross sea over the past four decades one of the longest records near antarctica reveal marked decreases in shelf water salinity and the surface salinity within the ross gyre these changes have been accompanied by atmospheric warming on ross island ocean warming at depths of 300 meters north of the continental shelf a more negative southern oscillation index and thinning of southeast pacific ice shelves the freshening appears to have resulted from a combination of factors including increased precipitation reduced sea ice production and increased melting of the west antarctic ice sheet

populations of faults and fault displacements and their effects on estimates of fault related regional extension abstract measured populations of fault displacements derived from regional seismic oilfield seismic coalmine plans and outcrop data show a power law distribution with exponents s of 0 45 to 0 95 for singleline samples across an array of faults the more negative values indicate relatively larger numbers of smaller faults an expression for a population of active faults derived from the gutenberg richter magnitude frequency relation for earthquakes is log n a b d log d where d maximum displacement of a fault n number of faults of maximum displacement d or greater and b d 1 0 and has the same value as b for the corresponding earthquake population populations of dead faults existing at the end of a tectonic episode have been numerically derived using a fault growth model and satisfy the relation log n a e log d where e has a value between 1 6 and 2 0 numerically derived populations of fault displacements in a dead fault population have slopes of s where s e 1 the contribution of an individual fault to the regional strain varies with the lifetime seismic moment of the fault and is proportional to d 2 estimation of fault related extension by summing heaves on faults of a limited size range is valid only if the measured size range of faults accommodates most of the extension correction can be made if the s value of the fault displacement population is known

the geomorphic evolution and sediment balance of the lower rhone river southern france over the last 130 years hydropower dams versus other control factors article i nfo atthe end of thelittleice age lia agriculturalpractices and successive phasesof channel management involv ing embankments and dams however the respective roles of these various control factors in modifying sedi ment storage and channel stability are often difficult to identify the aim of this paper is to determine the main factors that have driven morphological changes over the past 130 years on the 120 km long downstream reach of the rhone river a gis based analysis of maps and aerial photographs available since 1860 coupled with chrono stratigraphic data on the river s alluvial deposits has enabled quantification of sediment storage and erosion in different morphological units changes measured include riverbed incision narrowing of the main channel in relation with accumulation of fine sediments along the channel margins and reduction of sed iment input at the mouth on the basis of local and reach scale sediment balances we show that these changes are synchronous with engineering works carried out at the end of the nineteenth century and beginning of the twentieth century a period that coincided with a decline in river sediment inputs largely generated by human activities the early stabilisation of mountain slopesresulting from a decline inrural agriculture rural exodus re forestation and engineered torrent control has had a much greater impact in geomorphically transforming the rhone than dams and gravel mining the major identified causes of river destabilisation in the world this calls for caution in the all too common and wholesale attribution of declining sediment budgets of european rivers

a footwall system of faults associated with a foreland thrust in montana abstract some recent structural geology models of faulting have promoted the idea of a rigid footwall behaviour or response under the main thrust fault especially for fault ramps or fault bend folds however a very well exposed thrust fault in the montana fold and thrust belt shows an intricate but well ordered system of subsidiary minor faults in the footwall position with respect to the main thrust fault plane considerable shortening has occurred off the main fault in this footwall collapse zone and the distribution and style of the minor faults accord well with published patterns of aftershock foci associated with thrust faults in detail there appear to be geometrically self similar fault systems from metre length down to a few centimetres the smallest sets show both slip and dilation the slickensides show essentially two dimensional displacements and three slip systems were operative one parallel to the bedding and two conjugate and symmetric about the bedding acute angle of 45 50 a reconstruction using physical analogue models suggests one possible model for the evolution and sequencing of slip of the thrust fault system

bedding plane slip in initial stages of fault related folding abstract frictional slip along bedding planes contributes to fault related folding of layered rocks we use numerical experiments to investigate the deformation of frictional bedding planes near dipping faults under layerparallel contraction and extension within the numerical experiments contraction boundary conditions produce asymmetric anticlines and extension produces asymmetric synclines the fold shape may be used to infer dip of the underlying fault in situations where the fault may not be observable additionally sense of slip along bedding planes may indicate proximity to the fault tip under uniform remote tectonic strain fault slip induces deformation in both the hangingwall and the footwall at depths as shallow as 1 km there is no significant difference between fold amplitudes in the hangingwall and the footwall this result is contrary to many kinematic models currently in use kinematic models of fault related folds commonly include the development of flat ramp and flat ramp flat fault geometries which may be attributed to initial ramp thrusting and later flat development our mechanical models show that fault flats may be produced from fault ramps due to slip along frictional bedding planes near the thrust fault tips our numerical experiments also evaluate joint initiation joints perpendicular to bedding are promoted in extensional environments we compare the results of the mechanical model to kinematic models of fault propagation folds and conclude that mechanical models offer important insights to better understand the folding process

simulation of subice shelf melt rates in a general circulation model velocity dependent transfer and the role of friction two parameterizations of turbulent boundary layer processes at the interface between an ice shelf and the ocean beneath are investigated in terms of their impact on simulated melt rates and feedbacks the parameterizations differ in the transfer coefficients for heat and freshwater fluxes in their simplest form they are assumed constant and hence are independent of the velocity of ocean currents at the ice shelf base an augmented melt rate parameterization accounts for frictional turbulence via transfer coefficients that do depend on boundary layer current velocities via a drag law in simulations with both parameterizations for idealized as well as realistic cavity geometries under pine island ice shelf west antarctica significant differences in melt rate patterns between the velocity independent and velocity dependent formulations are found while patterns are strongly correlated to those of thermal forcing for velocity independent transfer coefficients melting in the case of velocity dependent coefficients is collocated with regions of high boundary layer currents in particular where rapid plume outflow occurs both positive and negative feedbacks between melt rates boundary layer temperature velocities and buoyancy fluxes are identified melt rates are found to increase with increasing drag coefficient inline image in agreement with plume model simulations but optimal values of cd inferred from plume models are not easily transferable uncertainties therefore remain both regarding simulated melt rate spatial distributions and magnitudes

energy balance and deformation mechanisms of duplexes abstract a duplex consists of a series of imbricate faults that are asymptotic to a roof thrust and a floor thrust depending on the final orientations of the imbricate faults and the final position of the branch lines a duplex may be hinterland dipping foreland dipping or an antiformal stack the exact geometry depends on various factors such as the initial dimensions of the individual slices horses their lithology the amount of displacement normalized to size of horse on each fault and the mechanics of movement along each fault the energy required in duplex formation can be determined by calculating the total work involved in emplacing each horse this is given by where w t w p w b w g w i wp is the work involved in initiating and propagating a fracture wb is the work involved in basal sliding which may be frictional or some form of ductile flow wg is the work done against gravity during the emplacement of the horse and wi is the work involved in the internal deformation of the horse by calculating and comparing these work terms it is possible to predict the conditions under which the different types of duplexes will form normally the development of a hinterland dipping duplex is most likely however if deformation conditions are favorable displacements on individual imbricate faults may be very large compared to the size of the horses leading to the formation of either antiformal stacks or foreland dipping duplexes

estimation of error in bankfull width comparisons from temporally sequenced raw and corrected aerial photographs this study investigates the propagation of error through image to image comparison of 285 river bankfull width measurements of the afon trannon mid wales bankfull width is quantified from both aerial photographs analysed as rectified images in erdas imagine orthomax and raw images in paintshop pro a method for the robust estimation of bankfull width measurement error through temporal sequences of scanned aerial photographs is presented and the improvement in accuracy achieved using rectified imagery is quantified results from this study are placed in the context of previously published rates of bankfull width change from a wide range of river scales and the bankfull change rates for robust medium term analysis using approximately 1 10 000 historical aerial photography are identified

impact of antarctic ice shelf basal melting on sea ice and deep ocean properties 1 an approximation of antarctica s rocky and icy coastline normally forms the southern boundary in global climate models such a configuration neglects extensive ice shelf areas where ocean ice interaction initiates a net freshwater flux to the circumpolar continental shelf equal to 75 of the annual mean net precipitation in coastal seas the results of a numerical model for the southern ocean using two contrasting configurations with and without caverns beneath major antarctic ice shelves are compared they show that the freshwater flux due to deep basal melting significantly stabilizes the shelf water column in front of an ice shelf as well as downstream due to advection by the coastal current if the freshwater from the caverns is absent sea ice is thinner shelf waters are warmer and saltier and the southern ocean deep basins are flushed by denser waters

water mass transformation by cabbeling and thermobaricity water mass transformation is an important process for the global ocean circulation nonlinearities in the equation of state of seawater lead to water mass transformation due to cabbeling and thermobaricity here the contribution of cabbeling and thermobaricity to water mass transformation is calculated in a neutral density framework using temperature gradients derived from observationally based gridded climatologies and observationally based estimates of the spatially varying eddy diffusivities it is shown that cabbeling and thermobaricity play a significant role in the water mass transformation budget with cabbeling having a particularly important role in the formation of antarctic intermediate water and antarctic bottom water a physical hypothesis is presented which explains why cabbeling is important for antarctic intermediate water formation it is shown that spatially varying estimates of eddy diffusivities are essential to correctly quantify the role of cabbeling to the formation of antarctic intermediate water

large multidecadal salinity trends near the pacific antarctic continental margin abstract ocean temperature and salinity measurements on and near the antarctic continental shelf in the southwest pacific sector are evaluated for evidence of temporal change shelf water in the southwest ross sea has declined in salinity by 0 03 decade 1 from 1958 to 2008 while its temperatures have increased in proportion to the influence of salinity on the sea surface freezing point modified deep water intrusions that reach the central ross ice shelf have freshened at a similar rate and cooled by 0 5 c since the late 1970s salinity has decreased by 0 08 decade 1 in the westward coastal and slope front currents consistent with increased melting of continental ice upstream in the amundsen sea overturning of those near surface waters during winter sea ice formation and mixing across the slope front is sufficient to account for the 5 decade shelf water salinity change a strong correlation between the freshening and change in the southern annular mode index suggests a link with the large scale atmosp

recent channel adjustments in alluvial rivers of tuscany central italy drastic channel adjustments have affected the main alluvial rivers of tuscany central italy during the 20th century bed level adjustments were identified both by comparing available topographic longitudinal profiles of different years and through field observations changes in channel width were investigated by comparing available aerial photographs 1954 and 1993 98 bed incision represents the dominant type of vertical adjustment and is generalized along all the fluvial systems investigated the arno river system is the most affected by bed level lowering up to 9 m whereas lower incision generally less than 2 m is observed along the rivers of the southern part of the region human disturbances appear to be the dominant factors of adjustments the main phase of vertical change occurred during the period 1945 80 in concomitance with the phase of maximum sediment mining activity at the regional scale the second dominant type of adjustment that involved most of the rivers in the region consists of a narrowing of the active channel based on measurements of channel width conducted on aerial photographs 38 of the reaches analysed experienced a narrowing greater than 50 of the initial channel width the largest values of channel narrowing were observed along initially braided or sinuous with alternate bars morphologies in the southern portion of the region a regional scheme of channel adjustments is derived based on initial channel morphology and on the amounts of incision and narrowing different styles of channel adjustments are described rivers that were originally sinuous with alternate bars to braided generally became adjusted by a moderate incision and a moderate to intense narrowing in contrast sinuous meandering channels mainly adjusted vertically with a minor amount of narrowing copyright 2003 john wiley sons ltd

deformation within foreland thrust sheets by populations of minor faults the dominant deformation mechanism within foreland thrust sheets is the displacement of blocks of weakly deformed rock on discrete mineral coated minor faults in highly deformed layers at the bases of three southern appalachian foreland sheets such minor faults are members of families or populations of consistently oriented structures the deformation style is similar in all three sheets rock nearest each thrust was shortened in the direction of sheet transport and thickened by a family of faults oriented at low angles to the thrusts rock further above each thrust experienced only the first of these two deformation stages statistical analyses of fault populations from these three sheets demonstrate that their deformation is quantitatively as well as qualitatively similar deformation due to movement on minor faults is statistically homogeneous at the scale of an outcrop in one of these sheets strain due to minor faults can be measured in that sheet a strain profile across this sheet is similar to strain profiles across continuously deformed sheets from internal portions of mountain belts suggesting that their responses to emplacement are similar

channel changes due to river regulation the case of the piave river italy this paper deals with the channel changes of the piave river in the eastern alps italy which have occurred during this century in response to human interventions in the fluvial system the flow regime and the sediment supply of the river have been considerably altered by hydroelectric dams flow diversions and gravel mining in addition river dynamics have been affected by the construction of streambank protection structures to document these changes a historical analysis was performed using maps and aerial photographs morphological features that were examined included planform configuration channel width braiding index and bed elevation the results indicate that as a consequence of decreases in the flows and sediment supply remarkable channel changes have occurred in the river during this century especially during recent decades the channel has undergone a general narrowing with a decrease in average width to 35 per cent of its initial value while the braiding index has decreased from about 3 to 1 5 in several reaches the planform pattern has changed from braided to wandering the observed trends of channel change suggest that the river has not yet reached a new equilibrium condition and it may therefore be predicted that reductions in width and braiding intensity are likely to continue in the immediate future copyright 1999 john wiley sons ltd

ocean circulation and sea ice thinning induced by melting ice shelves in the amundsen sea a 1 12 ocean model configuration of the amundsen sea sector is developed to better understand the circulation induced by ice shelf melt and the impacts on the surrounding ocean and sea ice eighteen sensitivity experiments to drag and heat exchange coefficients at the ice shelf ocean interface are performed the total melt rate simulated in each cavity is function of the thermal stanton number and for a given thermal stanton number melt is slightly higher for lower values of the drag coefficient sub ice shelf melt induces a thermohaline circulation that pumps warm circumpolar deep water into the cavity the related volume flux into a cavity is 100 500 times stronger than the melt volume flux itself ice shelf melt also induces a coastal barotropic current that contributes 45 12 of the total simulated coastal transport due to the presence of warm circumpolar deep waters the melt induced inflow typically brings 4 20 times more heat into the cavities than the latent heat required for melt for currently observed melt rates approximately 6 31 of the heat that enters a cavity with melting potential is actually used to melt ice shelves for increasing sub ice shelf melt rates the transport in the cavity becomes stronger and more heat is pumped from the deep layers to the upper part of the cavity then advected toward the ocean surface in front of the ice shelf therefore more ice shelf melt induces less sea ice volume near the ice sheet margins

active faulting and deformation of the coalinga anticline as interpreted from three dimensional velocity structure and seismicity this work gives a clear picture of the geometry of aftershock seismicity in a large thrust earthquake interpretation of hypocenters and fault plane solutions from the 1983 coalinga coast range california earthquake sequence in combination with the three dimensional velocity structure shows that the active faulting beneath the fold primarily consists of a set of southwest dipping thrusts uplifting blocks of higher velocity material above the main listric blind thrust there is a conjugate fault steeply northeast dipping that provides the western limit of the aftershocks within the coalinga anticline and that corresponds in location and spatial extent with the adjacent pleasant valley syncline the character of the seismicity varies with the degree of previous deformation on each section of the anticline where the previous uplift was largest the shallow seismicity shows secondary faulting on either side of the fold with orientations that correspond to the preexisting geologic structure diffuse seismicity characterizes the area with the least previous deformation the mainshock rupture terminated where the fold trend was no longer uniform but had competing north and west trending features the upward extent of the mainshock rupture ended at the approximate boundary between franciscan and great valley sequence rocks above that depth the main thrust appears to splay into a steeper segment and a near horizontal segment thus the extent of rupture area is limited by the area of uniform structural orientation and by the variation in the type of material with the three dimensional velocity model each individual hypocenter moved slightly 0 2 km in accord with the details of the surrounding velocity structure so that secondary features in the seismicity pattern are more detailed than with a local one dimensional model and station corrections the overall character of the fault plane solutions was not altered by the three dimensional model but the more accurate ray paths did result in distinct changes in particular the mainshock has a fault plane dipping 30 southwest instead of the 23 obtained with the one dimensional model

impacts of reforestation and gravel mining on the malnant river haute savoie french alps the malnant river is a rapidly incising river with a french name that translates as bad creek reflecting local opinion of the hazards from dramatic channel changes that have occurred in the last few centuries downcutting in the last three decades has created severe problems for farmers in this small watershed 16 km 2 as bridges are undermined streamside roads are threatened and irrigation diversion structures are rendered unusable the purpose of our study was to determine the extent and causes of downcutting a detailed landcover map dated 1732 revealed that forest cover had been reduced by that time to 10 of the present day cover the malnant was strongly affected by floods and debris torrents during the 18th and 19th centuries that delivered massive amounts of sediment during the 20th century reforestation reduced the sediment delivery from hillslopes in addition gravel extraction in the malnant and in the fier river of which the malnant is a tributary has lowered the base level for the river this initiated a knickpoint that moved upstream weirs placed in the malnant in 1968 were used to measure rates of bed incision in the field with a mean width of 4 0 m and degradation up to 36 cubic meters per meter channel length the lower 4 5 km of the malnant has experienced a net loss of approximately 163 000 m 3 of bed material above the 4 5 km point on the

medium and short term channel planform changes on the rivers tay and tummel scotland abstract channel planform change was analysed using a variety of data sources for the medium term 25 years and

strain fabric associated with the meade thrust sheet implications for cross section balancing abstract emplacement of the meade thrust sheet southeastern idaho u s a was accompanied by the development of a strain fabric and significant footwall deformation characteristics of the strain fabric are based on strain estimates using pressure solution cleavage and deformed fossils within the jurassic twin creek formation the strain fabric formed during early layer parallel shortening at the thrust front and accommodates from 10 to 35 shortening within the incipient thrust sheet footwall strata were later folded above a detachment at the base of the twin creek formation and the early strain fabric was passively rotated the structural development of this area consisting of 1 strain fabric development 2 folding of the footwall and 3 the truncation of footwall structures by imbricates of the meade thrust are placed in a relative time frame to aid in section reconstruction the passive reorientation of the strain fabric and the truncation and incorporation of footwall structures into the thrust sheet are used as kinematic and geometric constraints for cross section balancing we present a sequential retrodeformation of the meade thrust sheet in which strain is removed from the cross section at the appropriate geometric stages in the deformation these sections illustrate some methods by which strain data can be incorporated into cross sections and also indicate the difficulty involved in balancing cross sections of internally deformed thrust sheets interpretation of these sections suggests that a significant amount of footwall deformation accompanied the emplacement of the meade thrust sheet and that footwall deformation is strongly controlled by the local stratigraphic package the sections also illustrate that the earliest deformation within a thrust sheet may be unrelated to motion on the underlying incipient thrust and that the trace of a thrust fault which cuts previously deformed strata will not restore to a typical ramp and flat geometry

temporal variations of large wood abundance and mobility in the blanco river affected by the chaiten volcanic eruption southern chile abstract the aim of this study is to analyze the temporal variation in abundance and transport of in channel wood along a river affected by a volcanic eruption considering the mobility and retention rates in detail the 2008 eruption of chaiten volcano southern chile severely affected the blanco river basin causing changes in channel morphology and large wood lw dynamics along the fluvial corridor of the river a fourth order stream on the southern slope of the volcano temporal dynamics of lw were investigated from january 2015 until march 2016 in three 80 m long study reaches of the active channel in the lower course of the river every wood element 1 m in length and 0 1 m in diameter within the active channel of each reach was georeferenced measured tagged and characterized wood mobility rate defined as the number of tagged wood pieces repositioned or not found within each study reach to total tagged lw in the same reach and retention rate defined as the number of tagged lw pieces found within each study reach to total tagged wood pieces in the same reach were calculated considering two periods one in summer and one in autumn winter a regional flood frequency analysis estimated flood magnitude defining a recurrence interval of 1 year for summer floods and 10 25 years for autumn winter floods results highlighted how eight years after the eruption the types of lw are still influenced by the impacts of pyroclastic density currents on riparian vegetation the characteristics and abundance of monitored lw are typical of a river system with frequent wood transport the mobility rate ranges between 42 and 94 during the summer and autumn winter period respectively while the wood volume decreases during the summer and increases in autumn winter large wood mobility was also found to vary according to the predominant morphological settings with lower values in narrower channels compared to wider wetted areas in this context the greatest abundance of lw was detected after the higher floods corresponding to an input of lw up to 285 35 m3 ha 1 along the blanco river ordinary floods deliver lw mainly through fluvial transport and bank erosion during higher floods appears as an additional and important wood recruitment process the bank erosion processes with up to 5200 m2 of eroded area confirmed the widening tendency occurring in river systems following volcanic disturbances as there are dead riparian trees along the easily erodible banks it is reasonable to suppose that the blanco river will continue to widen for a long period recruiting and transporting downstream huge volumes of lw in this context these analyses appear of fundamental importance to better manage the river system also for decreasing hazards to the downstream village of chaiten

causes of 20th century channel narrowing in mountain and piedmont rivers of southeastern france extensive channel narrowing in southeastern france provides an illustration of geomorphic response to land use changes the study region comprises a range of environments from large piedmont and intramountain gravel bed rivers to small mountain streams field measurements and analysis of historical data demonstrate two distinct periods of channel change from 1850 to 1950 channel narrowing is interpreted to be the result of a recovery process in response to widespread channel destabilization induced by major floods during the second half of the 19th century at the time the largely deforested basins were highly responsive to flooding whereas the recovery process was accelerated by floodplain and basin scale land use changes afforestation and torrential control works which in turn reduced sediment delivery and enabled vegetation development in channels from 1950 to 1970 channel narrowing accelerated in most of the studied rivers this recent phenomenon is considered as a human induced fluvial adjustment directly related to forest development on river margins and human abandonment of intensive floodplain land uses at the same time long profile degradation occurred as a result of long term bedload supply decrease in small mountain streams channel narrowing is mainly explained by channel incision which seems to progress from upstream where sediment sources are progressively stabilized by afforestation copyright 2002 john wiley sons ltd

downstream variation in grain size along an alpine river analysis of controls and processes downstream variation in bed material size was studied along a 115 km reach of the piave river eastern alps italy this river drains a region producing high sediment yields and has a braided pattern along half of its length during the last century the river system has been affected by several human impacts hydroelectric dams diversions gravel mining which have strongly altered flow regime and sediment dynamics the aim of the study is to analyse the changes of bed material size in the downstream direction and to explain these changes in the light of both natural and anthropogenic factors surface material was sampled at 35 sites using the grid by number method the collected data give a detailed picture of the downstream variation in sediment size which is characterised by a complex pattern rather than by a simple decreasing trend an explanation of this variation was found through identification of discontinuities significant steps in the downstream trend and factors which can determine changes in sediment texture both natural lateral sediment sources and anthropogenic factors e g barrages are significant in this river system and they provide an explanation for most of the observed discontinuities seven out of eight discontinuities few tributaries disrupt downstream fining while as expected the barrages produce important changes in sediment texture fining processes were investigated in the lower part of the study reach where the lateral sediment sources and the barrages have minor effects on the bed material exponential models provide acceptable explanations of the downstream variations and give fining coefficients equal to 0 027 and 0 028 km 1 respectively for d50 and d84 evidence suggests that both abrasion and sorting are important in determining the downstream fining observed but it is likely that sorting is the dominant process

the diabatic deacon cell abstract southern ocean air sea fluxes from the coads dataset are examined for compatibility between buoyancy gain and northward ekman transport an analysis in density classes points to an upwelling of upper circumpolar deep water and subsequent buoyancy gain from air sea exchange as water flows northward in the ekman layer the upper circumpolar deep water layer is too shallow to admit southward geostrophic flow along topography and an eddy mass flux mechanism for southward transport in this layer to replenish the upwelling is advanced based on observed large scale potential vorticity gradients estimates of the strength and vertical structure of the meridional flow are given using repeated hydrographic sections and a new climatology

oblique subduction footwall deformation and imbrication a model for the penokean orogeny in east central minnesota the penokean orogeny was a major early proterozoic 1875 1825 ma tectonic event in the great lakes region in east central minnesota it is marked by multiply deformed and highly metamorphosed supracrustal rocks of the early proterozoic denham and thomson formations structural features similar to those in the supracrustal rocks also exist in the basement archean 2700 ma mcgrath gneiss such features are here explained in a tectonic model consisting of southward directed oblique subduction along the great lakes tectonic zone intense deformation occurred in the footwall of the major thrust which marked the boundary between downgoing and overriding plates during a type continental subduction sedimentary rocks thomson formation deposited on the footwall during loading caused by thrusting eventually became incorporated into the deformation zone early formed structures related to footwall deformation are a dominantly well developed foliation in the gneiss and isoclinal recumbent folds with a bedding subparallel foliation in the denham and lower thomson formations progressive metamorphism during subduction reached the garnet zone of the amphibolite facies various deformation inversions show that this early phase of deformation involved extreme flattening with z vertical and large amounts of extension in both the north south and east west directions footwall deformation was followed by imbrication and accretion onto the hanging wall during uplift associated with continued compression and isostatic rebound later formed structures associated with imbrication and deformation within the hanging wall consist of folding of the foliation and development of shear zones in the mcgrath gneiss and open to close upright to overturned folds in the denham and thomson formations the peak metamorphic event represented by staurolite occurred after the later deformation at temperatures of about 470 530 c and a minimum pressure of 3 4 kbar minimum depth of 12 4 km increasing temperature associated with decreasing pressure uplift is explained by conductive relaxation caused by crustal thickening and erosion this tectonic model may have more widespread implications for explaining similar structural features found in many precambrian terranes worldwide

distribution of fault slip in outcrop scale fault related folds appalachian mountains abstract current kinematic models of ramp related folds predict a direct relationship between ramp angle and fold shape and imply specific sequences of deformation analyses of outcrop scale structures in the valley and ridge province of the appalachians reveal configurations that depart from model predictions the models fail to account for the presence of footwall synclines and are inconsistent with measured displacement distributions on some natural faults observations support the interpretation that faults can grow by propagation both up and down dip from a nucleation point fault propagation in either direction may result in the formation of folds primarily on the side of the fault that is displaced in the direction of fault propagation

water mass transformation by sea ice in the upper branch of the southern ocean overturning sea ice formation is a key factor in the lower branch of the southern ocean overturning circulation observation based data in conjunction with a water mass transformation framework reveal that sea ice plays a central role in the upper branch too

incorporating seepage losses into the unsteady streamflow equations for simulating intermittent flow along mountain front streams 1 seepage losses along numerous mountain front streams that discharge intermittently onto alluvial fans and piedmont alluvial plains are an important source of groundwater in the basin and range province of the western united states determining the distribution of seepage loss along mountain front streams is important when assessing groundwater resources of the region seepage loss along a mountain front stream in northern nevada was evaluated using a one dimensional unsteady streamflow model seepage loss was incorporated into the spatial derivatives of the streamflow equations because seepage loss from streams is dependent on stream depth wetted perimeter and streambed properties a two dimensional variably saturated flow model was used to develop a series of relations between seepage loss and stream depth for each reach this method works when streams are separated from groundwater by variably saturated sediment two periods of intermittent flow were simulated to evaluate the modeling approach the model reproduced measured flow and seepage losses along the channel seepage loss in the spring of 2000 was limited to the upper reaches on the alluvial plain and totaled 196 000 m3 whereas 64 of the seepage loss in the spring of 2004 occurred at the base of the alluvial plain and totaled 273 000 m3 a greater seepage loss at the base of the piedmont alluvial plain is attributed to increased streambed hydraulic conductivity caused by less armoring of the channel the modeling approach provides a method for quantifying and distributing seepage loss along mountain front streams that cross alluvial fans or piedmont alluvial plains

the effects of antarctic iceberg calving size distribution in a global climate model icebergs calved from the antarctic continent act as moving sources of freshwater while drifting in the southern ocean the lifespan of these icebergs strongly depends on their original size during calving in order to investigate the effects if any of the calving size of icebergs on the southern ocean we use a coupled general circulation model with an iceberg component iceberg calving length is varied from 62 m up to 2 3 km which is the typical range used in climate models results show that increasing the size of calving icebergs leads to an increase in the westward iceberg freshwater transport around antarctica in simulations using larger icebergs the reduced availability of meltwater in the amundsen and bellingshausen seas suppresses the sea ice growth in the region in contrast the increased iceberg freshwater transport leads to increased sea ice growth around much of the east antarctic coastline these results suggest that the absence of large tabular icebergs with horizontal extent of tens of kilometers in climate models may introduces systematic biases in sea ice formation ocean temperatures and salinities around antarctica

observation and parameterization of ablation at the base of ronne ice shelf antarctica parameterizations of turbulent transfer through the oceanic boundary layer beneath an ice shelf are tested using direct measurements of basal ablation observations were made in the southwestern part of ronne ice shelf about 500 km from open water the mean basal ablation rate was measured over a month long and a year long period using phase sensitive radar to record the thinning of the ice shelf ocean temperatures were observed within about 25 m of the ice shelf base over the period of the radar observations while the tidally dominated ocean currents were estimated from tidal analysis of collocated current observations from an earlier period ablation rates derived using these ocean data and a number of bulk parameterizations of turbulent transfer within the boundary layer are compared with the direct measurements the ablation rates derived using a parameterization that explicitly includes the impact of ocean currents on the turbulent transfer of heat and salt match the observations to within 40 with suitable tuning of the drag coefficient the mismatch can be reduced below the level of the observational errors equally good agreement can be obtained with two slightly simpler current dependent parameterizations that use constant turbulent transfer coefficients andtheoptimalvaluesforthecoefficientsatthis particularlocationon ronneice shelfaregiven

modeling thermodynamic ice ocean interactions at the base of an ice shelf abstract models of ocean circulation beneath ice shelves are driven primarily by the heat and freshwater fluxes that are associated with phase changes at the ice ocean boundary their behavior is therefore closely linked to the mathematical description of the interaction between ice and ocean that is included in the code an hierarchy of formulations that could be used to describe this interaction is presented the main difference between them is the treatment of turbulent transfer within the oceanic boundary layer the computed response to various levels of thermal driving and turbulent agitation in the mixed layer is discussed as is the effect of various treatments of the conductive heat flux into the ice shelf the performance of the different formulations that have been used in models of sub ice shelf circulation is assessed in comparison with observations of the turbulent heat flux beneath sea ice formulations that include an explicit parameterization of the oceanic boundary layer give results that

assessment of southern ocean water mass circulation and characteristics in cmip5 models historical bias and forcing response 1 the ability of the models contributing to the fifth coupled models intercomparison project cmip5 to represent the southern ocean hydrological properties and its overturning is investigated in a water mass framework models have a consistent warm and light bias spread over the entire water column the greatest bias occurs in the ventilated layers which are volumetrically dominated by mode and intermediate layers the ventilated layers have been observed to have a strong fingerprint of climate change and to impact climate by sequestrating a significant amount of heat and carbon dioxide the mode water layer is poorly represented in the models and both mode and intermediate water have a significant fresh bias under increased radiative forcing models simulate a warming and lightening of the entire water column which is again greatest in the ventilated layers highlighting the importance of these layers for propagating the climate signal into the deep ocean while the intensity of the water mass overturning is relatively consistent between models when compared to observation based reconstructions they exhibit a slightly larger rate of overturning at shallow to intermediate depths and a slower rate of overturning deeper in the water column under increased radiative forcing atmospheric fluxes increase the rate of simulated upper cell overturning but this increase is counterbalanced by diapycnal fluxes including mixed layer horizontal mixing and mostly vanishes

spatial density and characteristics of woody debris in five mountain rivers of the dolomites italian alps abstract this research quantifies amounts and characteristics of woody debris in mountain channels of the alps all pieces of woody debris greater than 5 cm diameter and 0 3 m length have been surveyed along five channels of the dolomites italian alps with channel slopes ranging from 0 04 to 0 26 basin area 2 2 51 km2 during the survey channels were divided into uniform reaches and the mean gradient bankfull width and depth of flow were measured overall 4900 woody debris pieces single and jam forming were measured and classified with respect to several qualitative attributes such as presence absence of rootwads orientation to flow and position in the channel results show that very large variations in the volume of woody debris per unit area of the streambed occur even within single streams and that inputs mainly result from slope instabilities adjacent to the channels amounts of woody debris are low compared to most previous data published from different world regions but match with other mountain rivers of the alps debris transport seems to be of minor importance compared to local inputs from the slopes because reach characteristics are poorly correlated with the volume of woody debris in a reach a strong negative correlation is however observed between basin area and average density of woody debris in the five channels but debris removal in the larger channels likely affects such a trend finally the frequency of log steps is inversely correlated to drainage area and positively related to the density of debris

estimates of strain due to brittle faulting sampling of fault populations abstract the geometry of sampling domains is a first order consideration in the characterization of brittle fault populations in most cases descriptions of fault size distributions based on map cross section traverse or borehole data systematically underestimate the number of small faults present in a volume the geometry of sampling domains may be accounted for using an empirical proportionality between fault displacement and trace length estimates of strain in which the sampling geometry is considered suggest that small faults accommodate a significant portion of the total strain due to the brittle faulting process

assessment of channel changes due to long term bedload supply decrease roubion river france this paper presents the observations made in the watershed of the upper roubion river which drains a submediterranean mountainous environment and in two of its main tributaries the soubrion and bine creeks our aim was to analyze contemporary morphological and sedimentary changes in response to a progressive decrease in bedload supply this decrease is linked to an increase of forest cover in the watershed during the 20th century following rural depopulation and to a correlated decrease in peak flows several variables were systematically measured width slope bed level change sediment size along 23 km of river whereas dendrochronological data floodplain cross sections and estimated recurrence intervals of sediment entrainment based on critical shear stress calculations were also produced for specific sites to complete our analysis evidence of three major phenomena was obtained on both the roubion and its tributaries i bed degradation ii development of stable pavement in incised reaches and iii channel narrowing associated with the development of alluvial forest on recently abandoned portions of the pre existing active channel forest development began in the 1950s these three phenomena show positively covariant relationships that lead us to propose a descriptive model of mountain fluvial system adjustments to progressive decrease of bedload

river response to channel regulation case study of the raba river carpathians poland processes induced by the channelization of the raba river in the present century are examined to illustrate the response of a gravel bed stream following narrowing and straightening of its channel up to 3 m of incision has occurred the change from a slow and relatively steady degradation in the lower reaches to separate degradation events in the higher reaches is attributed to the differential rate of headcut retreat and to the control exerted by mid channel bars upon the rate of river energy dissipation progressive outwashing of finer grains from bed material has followed the diminishing sediment yield of the basin and the increase in stream power the ensuing growth in mean grain size and changes in sediment fabric have increased boundary resistance to flow and reduced particle susceptibility to entrainment downstream magnification of peak discharges has become increasingly pronounced with the advancing incision the decrease in flood plain storage and self acceleration of flows passing the relatively deep and straight channel has caused flood waves to become progressively more flashy in nature an increase in channel depth and reduction in gradient caused by downward and backward erosion as well as bed material coarsening has promoted the re establishment of an equilibrium conversely flow velocity increases due to flow concentration in the deepened channel reduction in grain mobility allows the river to attain a new equilibrium at flow velocity and stream power levels higher than before the channelization numerous disadvantages of the applied regulation scheme and its failure to reduce flood hazard raise the question of its maintenance to be successful any regulation design must take into account changes in sediment supply and flood hydrographs resulting from the simultaneous alterations in basin management

negative polarity seismic reflections along faults of the oregon accretionary prism indicators of overpressuring either thrusting of higher over lower impedance sediment or reduction of impedance locally in the fault zone can produce negative polarity reflections along the protothrusts and the frontal thrust of the oregon accretionary prism the vertical displacement of protothrusts averages only 27 m is uncorrelated to the occurrence of polarity reversals and is insufficient to generate the impedance contrasts associated with the negative polarity reflections the negative polarity reflections from the protothrusts are probably due to localized impedance reduction in the fault zone waveform modeling of these negative polarity reflections indicates they develop due to a single interface with negative impedance contrast this seismic signal could be produced by a fault zone with a sharp upper boundary with low impedance fault material and a transition down section to sediment of higher impedance an impedance inversion due to the 1 km throw on the frontal thrust could create the observed negative polarity reflections interval velocities do not decrease across the frontal thrust but core scale velocity measurements indicate a velocity decrease in the frontal thrust therefore the negative polarity reflections are apparently produced by a localized decrease in impedance waveform modeling of frontal thrust reflections suggests the low impedance interval is about 20 m thick with discrete upper and lower boundaries moderately dipping faults are an efficient path for fluid expulsion across the turbidites with low equivalent vertical permeability fluid migration from the over pressured section up the faults can locally reduce the velocity sufficiently to cause the negative polarity reflections

linked trends in the south pacific sea ice edge and southern oscillation index previous work have shown that sea ice variability in the south pacific is associated with extratropical atmospheric anomalies linked to the southern oscillation so over a 32 year period 1982 2013 our study shows that the trend in southern oscillation index soi is also able to quantitatively explain the trends in sea ice edge drift and surface winds in this region on average two thirds of the winter ice edge trend in this sector linked to ice drift and surface winds could be explained by the positive soi trend thus subjecting the ice edge to strong decadal so variability if this relationship holds the negative soi trend prior to the recent satellite era suggests that ice edge trends opposite to that of the recent record over a similar time scale significant low frequency ice edge trends linked to the natural variability of so are superimposed upon any trends expected of anthropogenic forcing

southern ocean bottom water characteristics in cmip5 models 1 southern ocean deep water properties and formation processes in climate models are indicative of their capability to simulate future climate heat and carbon uptake and sea level rise southern ocean temperature and density averaged over 1986 2005 from 15 cmip5 coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 climate models are compared with an observed climatology focusing on bottom water bottom properties are reasonably accurate for half the models ten models create dense water on the antarctic shelf but it mixes with lighter water and is not exported as bottom water as in reality instead most models create deep water by open ocean deep convection a process occurring rarely in reality models with extensive deep convection are those with strong seasonality in sea ice optimum bottom properties occur in models with deep convection in the weddell and ross gyres bottom water formation processes are poorly represented in ocean models and are a key challenge for improving climate predictions

impacts of ice shelf melting on water mass transformation in the southern ocean from e3sm simulations abstractthe southern ocean overturning circulation is driven by winds heat fluxes and freshwater sources among these sources of freshwater antarctic sea ice formation and melting play the domin

channel adjustments and vegetation cover dynamics in a large gravel bed river over the last 200 years article i nfo the timing and extent of the morphological changes that occurred in the last 200 years in a large gravel bed river the piave river eastern italian alps that was heavily impacted by human activities training structures hydropower schemes and gravel mining have been analyzed by historical maps aerial photos repeated topographic measurements and geomorphological surveys results show that the channel underwent a strong narrowing during the twentieth century but with a faster pace during the 1970s 1990s and with an associated shift from a dominant braided pattern to a wandering morphology bed incision up to 2 m mostly from gravel mining has been documented for this period large areas of the former active channel were colonized by riparian forests both as islands and as marginal woodlands the ceasing of gravel extraction in the late 1990s seems to have determined a reversal in the evolutionary trend with evidence of vegetation erosion channel widening even though a significant aggradation phase is not present we conclude that alteration of sediment regime has played a major role on the long term channel evolution however only relevant flood events rin10 15 years appear to determine substantial island erosion and therefore the proportion of island vs channel area fluctuates depending on flood history

evolution of the morphology of the river dragonja sw slovenia due to land use changes the effects of increasing agricultural land use on fluvial morphology have received much attention in fluvial research however in several regions in europe a reversing trend of decreasing agricultural activity and land abandonment followed by reforestation is observed the response of fluvial morphology deserves attention because of its large impacts on landscape and riverine habitats with the help of geomorphological mapping multi date aerial photography and a range of dating techniques we reconstructed the evolution of the morphology of the riverbed and the floodplain of the dragonja river in southwestern slovenia the results of this study show that the fluvial morphology in this mediterranean catchment has changed considerably as a result of shifts in agricultural land use in particular large scale land abandonment in the second half of the 20th century until the first half of the 19th century floodplain aggradation prevailed probably around 1870 a large erosion event occurred from which the floodplain did not fully recover a terrace standing 2 5 m above the present floodplain was formed natural reforestation due to depopulation since world war ii caused a reduction in discharge and sediment supply to the river the decreased intensity and frequency of floods allowed invasion of the riverbed by vegetation causing narrowing and incision of the riverbed this resulted in the formation of a terrace which now stands 1 5 m above the present day river this terrace is about 60 years old however the largest increase in forest area occurred since 1975 which intensified this process of riverbed narrowing and incision creating a local terrace at 0 5 m at 0 5 m above the presently meandering river

accuracy assessment of georectified aerial photographs implications for measuring lateral channel movement in a gis aerial photographs are commonly used to measure planform river channel change we investigated the sources and implications of georectification error in the measurement of lateral channel movement by testing how the number 6 30 and type human versus natural landscape features of ground control points gcps and the order of the transformation polynomial first second and third order affected the spatial accuracy of a typical georectified aerial photograph error was assessed using the root mean square error rmse of the gcps as well as error in 31 independent test points the rmse and the mean and median values of test point errors were relatively insensitive to the number of gcps above eight but the upper range of test point errors showed marked improvement i e the number of extreme errors was reduced as more gcps were used for georectification using more gcps thus improved overall georectification accuracy but this improvement was not indicated by the rmse suggesting that independent test points located in key areas of interest should be used in addition to rsme to evaluate georectification error the order of the transformation polynomial also influenced test point accuracy the second order polynomial function yielded the best result for the terrain of the study area gcp type exerted a less consistent influence on test point accuracy suggesting that although hard edged points e g roof corners are favored as gcps some soft edged points e g trees may be used without adding significant error based upon these results we believe that aerial photos of a floodplain landscape similar to that of our study can be consistently georectified to an accuracy of approximately f5 m with 10 chance of greater error the implications of georectification error for measuring lateral channel movement are demonstrated with a multiple buffer analysis which documents the inverse relationship between the size of the buffers applied to two channel centerlines and the magnitude of change detected between them this study demonstrates the importance of using an independent test point analysis in addition to the rsme to evaluate and treat locational error in channel change studies d 2005 published by elsevier b v

pathways of basal meltwater from antarctic ice shelves a model study we investigate spreading pathways of basal meltwater released from all antarctic ice shelves using a circumpolar coupled ice shelf sea ice ocean model that reproduces major features of the southern ocean circulation including the antarctic circumpolar current acc several independent virtual tracers are used to identify detailed pathways of basal meltwaters the spreading pathways of the meltwater tracers depend on formation sites because the meltwaters are transported by local ambient ocean circulation meltwaters from ice shelves in the weddell and amundsen bellingshausen seas in surface subsurface layers are effectively advected to lower latitudes with the acc although a large portion of the basal meltwaters is present in surface and subsurface layers a part of the basal meltwaters penetrates into the bottom layer through active dense water formation along the antarctic coastal margins the signals at the seafloor extend along the topography showing a horizontal distribution similar to the observed spreading of antarctic bottom water meltwaters originating from ice shelves in the weddell and ross seas and in the indian sector significantly contribute to the bottom signals a series of numerical experiments in which thermodynamic interaction between the ice shelf and ocean is neglected regionally demonstrates that the basal meltwater of each ice shelf impacts sea ice and or ocean thermohaline circulation in the southern ocean

antarctic ice sheet loss driven by basal melting of ice shelves accurate prediction of global sea level rise requires that we understand the cause of recent widespread and intensifying glacier acceleration along antarctic ice sheet coastal margins atmospheric and oceanic forcing have the potential to reduce the thickness and extent of floating ice shelves potentially limiting their ability to buttress the flow of grounded tributary glaciers indeed recent ice shelf collapse led to retreat and acceleration of several glaciers on the antarctic peninsula but the extent and magnitude of ice shelf thickness change the underlying causes of such change and its link to glacier flow rate are so poorly understood that its future impact on the ice sheets cannot yet be predicted here we use satellite laser altimetry and modelling of the surface firn layer to reveal the circum antarctic pattern of ice shelf thinning through increased basal melt we deduce that this increased melt is the primary control of antarctic ice sheet loss through a reduction in buttressing of the adjacent ice sheet leading to accelerated glacier flow the highest thinning rates occur where warm water at depth can access thick ice shelves via submarine troughs crossing the continental shelf wind forcing could explain the dominant patterns of both basal melting and the surface melting and collapse of antarctic ice shelves through ocean upwelling in the amundsen and bellingshausen seas and atmospheric warming on the antarctic peninsula this implies that climate forcing through changing winds influences antarctic ice sheet mass balance and hence global sea level on annual to decadal timescales

transport and variability of the antarctic circumpolar current in drake passage the baroclinic transport of the antarctic circumpolar current acc above 3000 m through drake passage is 107 3 10 4 sv and has been steady between 1975 and 2000 for six hydrographic sections 1993 2000 along the world ocean circulation experiment woce line sr1b the baroclinic transport relative to the deepest common level is 136 7 7 8 sv the acc transport is carried in two jets the subantarctic front 53 10 sv and the polar front pf 57 5 5 7 sv southward of the acc the southern antarctic circumpolar current transports 9 3 2 4 sv we observe the pf at two latitudes separated by 90 km this bimodal distribution is related to changes in the circulation and properties of antarctic bottom water three realizations of the instantaneous velocity field were obtained with lowered adcps from these observations we obtain near bottom reference velocities for transport calculations net transport due to these reference velocities ranges from 28 to 43 sv consistent with previous estimates of variability the transport in density layers shows systematic variations due to seasonal heating in near surface layers volume transport weighted mean temperatures vary by 0 40 c from spring to summer a seasonal variation in heat flux of about 0 22 pw finally we review a series of papers from the international southern ocean studies program the average yearlong absolute transport is 134 sv and the standard deviation of the average is 11 2 sv the error of the average transport is 15 to 27 sv we emphasize that baroclinic variability is an important contribution to net variability in the acc

sensitivity of the southern ocean overturning circulation to surface buoyancy forcing 1 the sensitivity of the southern ocean overturning to altered surface buoyancy forcing is investigated in a series of eddy permitting idealised simulations the modelled response indicates that heat and freshwater fluxes in the southern hemisphere mid latitudes may play a significant role in setting the strength of the overturning circulation enhanced buoyancy fluxes act to increase the meridional overturning up to a limit approaching the wind driven ekman transport the sensitivity of the overturning to surface buoyancy forcing is strongly dependent on the relative locations of the wind stress profile buoyancy forcing and upwelling region the numerical simulations provide support for the hypothesis that changes in upwelling during deglaciations may have been driven by changes in heat and freshwater fluxes instead of or in addition to changes in wind stress

the accommodation of large strains in the upper lithosphere of the earth and other solids by self similar fault systems the geometrical origin of b value plate tectonics has provided a method of visualizing the geometry of the deformation of the earth s lithosphere on a large scale the description is so concise that for many purposes it provides an explanation of geological processes that overshadows the need to understand the driving processes the mechanics of the zones between the plates are less well understood particularly in continental regions where large areas are subject to deformation both continuous and discontinuous models have been tried but both have obvious drawbacks

determining the size and shape of blocks from linear sampling for geotechnical rock mass classification and assessment classifying and assessing geotechnical aspects of rock masses involves combining parameters in various ways guided by empirical considerations to derive quantitative geotechnical parameters geological structures and the deformation history of rocks underpin the nature of rock masses the kinematics of a deforming rock mass may occur as sliding along throughgoing discontinuities or as distributed sliding on block faces distributed sliding will tend to disrupt the continuity of planar structures such that data on the size and shape of blocks is needed rather than relying on discontinuity orientation data alone orientation and spacing data can be combined to provide a geometric analysis of block systems from linear samples such as drill core dihedral angles and spacing of sequential pairs of discontinuities provides a sample of the size and shape of blocks that can be interpreted stereologically further detail can be derived by combining neighbouring intersections that enclose or partially enclose individual blocks the shape and size of a block can be represented on a stereograph with the enclosing faces shown as poles and their perpendicular distance from an arbitrary point inside the block shown as a number identifying the size and shape of specific blocks rather than relying on statistical methods is beneficial to critical aspects of design such as analysing keyblocks that would be exposed during excavations the detailed characterization of block size and shape is also a step toward interpreting the kinematics of rock mass deformation and the analysis of rock masses as ultra close packed dilatant granular systems

evolution of fault patterns in clay experiments abstract the evolution of systems of strike slip faults from a single fault to intricate patterns is examined here in a series of clay experiments in the experiments plates of clay are loaded laterally under constant strain rate in plane strain with continuous monitoring of the stresses the experiments indicate that an individual fault appears as a linear trace about 1 mm in length that grows by in plane propagation of one or both ends next the fault evolves by out of plane propagation and interacts and coalesces with other subparallel faults this process generates a crooked nonlinear fault which at this point usually ceases to grow younger faults developing close to the older fault may cross and displace it the fault pattern in a sample changes in nature during a single run the early pattern is either domainal or conjugate depending on the initial fault distribution the second stage is usually domainal when subparallel faults develop close to each other during the final stage young faults cross old ones and generate conjugate patterns the relation between rheology and growth mechanisms of the faults is discussed faults in brittle elastic solids grow by out of plane propagation into zones of reduced normal stress whereas many of the faults in the present experiments grow by in plane propagation this propagation direction and the fault pattern evolution is interpreted here as indicating relaxation of nonuniform stresses at the proximity of the faults it is further argued that stress relaxation may be applicable to faulting of rocks in the upper crust

channel adjustments bedload transport and sediment sources in a gravel bed river brenta river italy this paper deals with the brenta river the alps italy a gravel bed river strongly affected by human impact the aims of this work are a to reconstruct the channel adjustments that have occurred during the last decades and b to analyse the present condition of the river in terms of bedload transport and sediment sources the study reach which is 23 km long was investigated using historical maps aerial photographs 12 monumented cross sections laser altimetry data and field survey bedload transport rates were estimated by a morphological approach which allows the construction of a sediment budget dramatic channel adjustments have occurred in response to an alteration of sediment fluxes caused by different human interventions gravel mining dams torrent control works major channel adjustments specifically incision up to 8 9 m and narrowing took place between the 1950s and the 1980s on the other hand widening has become the most important process and incision has continued only in the upper part of the study reach in more recent times about the last 20 25 years the estimate of bedload transport rates for the period 1984 1997 was carried out starting from the erosion and deposition volumes of the single sub reaches such an estimate has shown that a a high spatial variability of gravel transport rates exists from 0 up to 73 200 85 400 m3 year and b most of the bedload is supplied by local sources bank erosion is the main source of sediments for bedload transport and its contribution can be estimated as from 9 up to 20 times higher than the upstream contribution finally from a practical point of view results from this study should be taken into account in addressing maintenance sediment management and restoration along a dynamic and unstable river such as the brenta copyright 2007 john wiley sons ltd

morphological changes in alpine rivers following the end of the little ice age abstract this work investigates the channel changes of alpine rivers from the end of the little ice age 1850s to the 1950s with the aim to determine the possible role of climatic variations occurred in this period before the onset of anthropic pressures i e dams check dams bank protections and gravel mining the research was conducted on 17 river catchments of south tyrol northern italy glaciated and unglaciated a multitemporal gis analysis approach was adopted to assess the morphological changes in terms of channel width and pattern from three different sources i austrian cadastral map 1858 ii maps from the italian institute of military geography 1917 1925 and iii two aerial photo sets taken in 1945 and 1954 the analysed river network a total of 480 km was subdivided into 162 morphologically homogeneous reaches 76 confined 81 partly confined and 5 unconfined with lengths ranging from 630 to 5500 m slope from 0 3 to 24 and drained area from 20 to 4000 km 2 the statistical relationships among morphological changes and reach and basin scale factors were analysed by univariate and multivariate methods and the relationships between width changes and 36 controlling factors were explored using principal component analysis the variability in width and morphological pattern changes were very pronounced between and within single rivers highlighting the value of such a large data set overall the analysed rivers varied their morphological pattern mostly exhibiting a shift from multithread transitional to single thread patterns but unchanged planform types were also common variations in channel width varied substantially among the analysed rivers which featured narrowing slightly prevailing and widening the least common as well as many cases of very limited changes channel width variations appear statistically although weakly related to some morphometric variables and significant differences emerge comparing glaciated vs unglaciated basins climate related variations glacier dynamics and channel disturbance frequency are argued to be the dominant factors that affected channel variations

important role for ocean warming and increased ice shelf melt in antarctic sea ice expansion changes in sea ice significantly modulate climate change because of its high reflective and strong insulating nature in contrast to arctic sea ice sea ice surrounding antarctica has expanded1 with record extent2 in 2010 this ice expansion has previously been attributed to dynamical atmospheric changes that induce atmospheric cooling3 here we show that accelerated basal melting of antarctic ice shelves is likely to have contributed significantly to sea ice expansion specifically we present observations indicating that melt water from antarctica s ice shelves accumulates in a cool and fresh surface layer that shields the surface ocean from the warmer deeper waters that are melting the ice shelves simulating these processes in a coupled climate model we find that cool and fresh surface water from ice shelf melt indeed leads to expanding sea ice in austral autumn and winter this powerful negative feedback counteracts southern hemispheric atmospheric warming although changes in atmospheric dynamics most likely govern regional sea ice trends4 our analyses indicate that the overall sea ice trend is dominated by increased ice shelf melt we suggest that cool sea surface temperatures around antarctica could offset projected snowfall increases in antarctica with implications for estimates of future sea level rise

localized subduction of anthropogenic carbon dioxide in the southern hemisphere oceans the southern ocean makes a substantial contribution to the oceanic carbon sink observationally based estimates of carbon subduction suggest that carbon sequestration depends on physical properties such as mixed layer depth ocean currents wind and eddies that are potentially sensitive to climate variability and change

changes in the magnitude and transformation of flood waves subsequent to the channelization of the raba river polish carpathians alterations in flood flows of the raba river are examined to determine the influence exerted on flood waves by changing morphological conditions with stable vertical channel position the river increased its sinuosity during the 1920s to 1940s and the change was accompanied by a growing tendency to flood wave attenuation the temporal change in flood wave transformation is typical of a developing low flow system subsequently streambed degradation has been induced due to channnelization works which straightened and narrowed the river flood waves became progressively more flashy as channel incision progressed the increase in magnitude of flood waves passing the deepened reach was greatest for bankfull flows and diminished for lower in bank flows and higher overbank flows the tendency to magnification of peak discharges has been also found in other carpathian rivers which were considerably degraded in the 20th century in response to channelization introducing an empirically found correcting factor into the analysis of the ratio of outflow to inflow peak discharges shows how the conditions of peak flow transformation in a reach have changed since the beginning of the study period a marked coincidence between changes in vertical channel location and variations in the corrected peak discharge ratio proves channel changes to be a very important reason for the growing flood hazard in southern poland gradient oversteepening and channel narrowing caused by channelization lead to formation of a river system having a steep straight narrow and deep channel such a morphology distinguishes the system from natural low flow and high flow systems reduced floodplain water storage and self acceleration of flow concentrated in a channel zone make flood waves progressively more flashy on their way down the channelization formed system

calving fluxes and basal melt rates of antarctic ice shelves iceberg calving has been assumed to be the dominant cause of mass loss for the antarctic ice sheet with previous estimates of the calving flux exceeding 2 000 gigatonnes per year1 2 more recently the importance of melting by the ocean has been demonstrated close to the grounding line and near the calving front3 4 5 so far however no study has reliably quantified the calving flux and the basal mass balance the balance between accretion and ablation at the ice shelf base for the whole of antarctica the distribution of fresh water in the southern ocean and its partitioning between the liquid and solid phases is therefore poorly constrained here we estimate the mass balance components for all ice shelves in antarctica using satellite measurements of calving flux and grounding line flux modelled ice shelf snow accumulation rates6 and a regional scaling that accounts for unsurveyed areas we obtain a total calving flux of 1 321 144 gigatonnes per year and a total basal mass balance of 1 454 174 gigatonnes per year this means that about half of the ice sheet surface mass gain is lost through oceanic erosion before reaching the ice front and the calving flux is about 34 per cent less than previous estimates derived from iceberg tracking1 2 7 in addition the fraction of mass loss due to basal processes varies from about 10 to 90 per cent between ice shelves we find a significant positive correlation between basal mass loss and surface elevation change for ice shelves experiencing surface lowering8 and enhanced discharge9 we suggest that basal mass loss is a valuable metric for predicting future ice shelf vulnerability to oceanic forcing

volume transport of the antarctic circumpolar current from bottom pressure measurements abstract meausrements from bottom pressure gauges located at the north and south sides of drake passage are used to extend the one year time series of volume transport of the antarctic circumpolar current acc given previously by whitworth a small error in that paper is corrected and a revised transport time series is presented which shows the importance of including the transport in the northern and southern margins of drake passage direct measurements of vertical shear averaged across the passage are in good agreement with geostrophic shear and suggest that the acc is in geostrophic balance although most of the acc transport is in the baroclinic field transport fluctuations are mainly barotropic transport estimates based on pressure difference alone differ from the estimates of whitworth by less than 10 106 m3 s 1 fluctuations in transport of almost half of the mean value occur over periods as short as two weeks

an eddy permitting southern ocean state estimate abstract an eddy permitting general circulation model of the southern ocean is fit by constrained least squares to a large observational dataset during 2005 06 data used include argo float profiles ctd synoptic sections southern elephant seals as oceanographic samplers seaos instrument mounted seal profiles xbts altimetric observations envisat geosat jason 1 and ocean topography experiment topex poseidon and infrared and microwave radiometer observed sea surface temperature an adjoint model is used to determine descent directions in minimizing a misfit function each of whose elements has been weighted by an estimate of the observational plus model error the model is brought into near agreement with the data by adjusting its control vector here consisting of initial and meteorological boundary conditions although total consistency has not yet been achieved the existing solution is in good agreement with the great majority of the 2005 and 2006 southern ocean observations and better repr