diagnosis of time of increased probability of strong earthquakes in different regions of the world algorithm cn abstract an algorithm for intermediate term earthquake prediction is suggested which allows diagnosis of the times of increased probability of strong earthquakes tips tips are declared for the time period of one year and an area with linear dimensions of a few hundred kilometers and can be extended in time the algorithm is based on the following traits of an earthquake flow level of seismic activity its temporal variation clustering of earthquakes in space and time their concentration in space and their long range interaction the algorithm is normalized so that it can be applied in various regions without readaptation tips diagnosed by the algorithm precede 80 of strong earthquakes and take on average 24 of the total time

seismic moment catalog of large shallow earthquakes 1900 to 1989 we compile a worldwide catalog of shallow depth 70 km and large ms 7 earthquakes recorded between 1900 and 1989 the catalog is shown to be complete and uniform at the 20 sec surface wave magnitude ms 7 0 we base our catalog on those of abe 1981 1984 and abe and noguchi 1983a b for events with ms 7 0 those catalogs however are not homogeneous in seismicity rates for the entire 90 year period we assume that global rates of seismicity are constant on a time scale of decades and most inhomogeneities arise from changes in instrumentation and or reporting we correct the magnitudes to produce a homogeneous catalog the catalog is accompanied by a reference list for all the events with seismic moment determined at periods longer than 20 sec using these seismic moments for great and giant earthquakes and a moment magnitude relationship for smaller events we produce a seismic moment catalog for large earthquakes from 1900 to 1989 the catalog is used to study the distribution of moment released worldwide although we assumed a constant rate of seismicity on a global basis the rate of moment release has not been constant for the 90 year period because the latter is dominated by the few largest earthquakes we find that the seismic moment released at subduction zones during this century constitutes 90 of all the moment released by large shallow earthquakes on a global basis the seismic moment released in the largest event that occurred during this century the 1960 southern chile earthquake represents about 30 to 45 of the total moment released from 1900 through 1989 a frequency size distribution of earthquakes with seismic moment yields an average slope b value that changes from 1 04 for magnitudes between 7 0 and 7 5 to b 1 51 for magnitudes between 7 6 and 8 0 this change in the b value is attributed to different scaling relationships between bounded large and unbounded small earthquakes thus the earthquake process does have a characteristic length scale that is set by the downdip width over which rupture in earthquakes can occur that width is typically greater for thrust events at subduction zones than for earthquakes along transform faults and other tectonic environments

submergence and uplift associated with the giant 1833 sumatran subduction earthquake evidence from coral microatolls the giant sumatran subduction earthquake of 1833 appears as a large emergence event in fossil coral microatolls on the reefs of sumatra s outer arc ridge stratigraphic analysis of these and living microatolls nearby allow us to estimate that 1833 emergence increased trenchward from about 1 to 2 m this pattern and magnitude of uplift are consistent with about 13 m of slip on the subduction interface and suggest a magnitude mw of 8 8 9 2 for the earthquake the fossil microatolls also record rapid submergence in the decades prior to the earthquake with rates increasing trenchward from 5 to 11 mm yr living microatolls show similar rates and a similar pattern the fossil microatolls also record at least two less extensive emergence events in the decades prior to 1833 these observations show that coral microatolls can be useful paleoseismic and paleogeodetic instruments in convergent tectonic environments

recent earth oblateness variations unraveling climate and postglacial rebound effects earth9s dynamic oblateness j2 has been decreasing due to postglacial rebound pgr however j2 began to increase in 1997 indicating a pronounced global scale mass redistribution within earth9s system we have determined that the observed increases in j2 are caused primarily by a recent surge in subpolar glacial melting and by mass shifts in the southern pacific and indian oceans when these effects are removed the residual trend in j2 2 9 x 10 11 year 1 becomes consistent with previous estimates of pgr from satellite and eclipse data the climatic significance of these rapid shifts in glacial and oceanic mass however remains to be investigated

seismic activity on neighbouring faults as a long term precursor to large earthquakes in the san francisco bay area activity in moderate size earthquakes accelerated in the several decades before the large california earthquakes of 1989 1906 and 1868 this type of precursor seems to require the presence of several major faults in close enough proximity to one another that moderate size shocks are selectively triggered on surrounding faults during the latter stages of the cycle of strain buildup to large earthquakes it may be possible to use quantitative aspects of similar seismic precursors to make predictions of large earthquakes on timescales of a few years to one decade

the 1960 chile earthquake inversion for slip distribution from surface deformation summary a total of 166 observations of sea level change 130 measurements of elevation difference and 16 determinations of horizontal strain provide an excellent view of the quasi static source process of the great 1960 chilean earthquake these surface deformation data were employed in classical uniform slip fault models as well as more recently developed models that allow spatial variability of slip the best uniform slip planar usp model is 850km long 130km wide and dips 20 seventeen metres of fault displacement contributed to a usp moment of 9 4 times 1022 n m the variable slip planar vsp model concentrates slip on a 900 km long 150 km wide band parallel to the coast several peaks of slip with dimensions of 50 100 km appear in this band and are thought to represent major subduction zone asperities important fractures of the oceanic lithosphere bound the 1960 rupture and are offered as a potential source of fault segmentation within the chilean subduction zone the vsp moment for 1960 earthquake totals 9 5 times 1022 n m about one fifth of the value estimated for the foreshock mainshock sequence from seismic methods except for areas out to sea geodetic resolution on the fault is fairly uniform thus it is unlikely that slip missed by the network could increase the vsp moment much beyond 1 8 times 1023 n m several patches of moment isolated from the main body at 80 110 km depth are found down dip in the vsp model and are presumably indicative of aseismic slip one patch at the northern end of the rupture is probably associated with the initiation phase of the mainshock although the time sequence of the relationship is unknown tide gauge records suggest that another patch between 40 and 43 s responsible for the observed strain and uplifts inland at those latitudes is not of coseismic origin but derives from in place post seismic creep over several years apparently great 1960 type events are not typical members of the 128 yr earthquake cycle in south central chile the nazca south america boundary here is characterized by a variable rupture mode in which major asperities are completely broken by great earthquakes only once in four or five earthquake cycles the more frequent large earthquakes that geographically overlap the great events fill in between the locked zones

low frequency source characteristics of the great 1960 chilean earthquake the low frequency nature of the great 1960 chilean earthquake the earth s largest recorded event is characterized and a source model composed of three events with a combined seismic moment of 5 5 1023 n m and a duration of 1500 s is presented the results show conclusively that large scale slip which is only observed at low frequencies preceded the main shock complex amplitude measurements of normal mode data in the band 1 0 5 0 mhz recorded at eight vertical component stations comprise the data set in this band the earthquake source is assumed to be described by a line source propagating at a constant rupture velocity the data set is the basis for a sequence of least squares inversions to determine the seismic moment rupture velocity spatial slip distribution and the temporal slip function the data are best explained by a source model that begins 1150 s before the main shock with an event of moment 1 9 1023 n m and rise time of 300 s a main shock with moment of 3 2 1023 n m and for which most of the low frequency energy was released beginning about 50 s after the short period origin time and an event 350 s later with moment of 0 4 1023 n m the uncertainty in the moment estimate of the great 1960 chilean earthquake is about 50 and is due primarily to the probable range of fault plane dip which is not well constrained at this time

global post seismic deformation summary we quantify the effects of post seismic deformation on the radial and horizontal components of the displacement in the near and far field of strike and dip slip point dislocations these sources are embedded in the elastic top layer of a spherical self gravitating stratified viscoelastic earth within the scheme of the normal mode technique we derive the explicit analytical expression of the fundamental matrix for the toroidal component of the field equations this component is propagated together with its spheroidal counterpart from the core mantle boundary to the earth s surface viscosity stratification at 670km depth influences the radial and horizontal deformation accompanying viscoelastic relaxation in the mantle over time scales of 103 104 yr both in the near field ranging from 100 to 500 km and in the far field from 103 to 5 x 103 km if the upper mantle is differentiated into a low viscosity zone beneath the lithosphere and a normal upper mantle faster relaxation is obtained for an asthenospheric viscosity of 1020 pa s we obtain for a strike slip dislocation and a seismic moment of 1022 n m characteristic of an average large earthquake horizontal rates of 1 4 mm yr 1 in the near field and 0 05 0 4 mm yr 1 in the far field these values are maintained over time scales of 10 103 yr larger rates with shorter duration are obtained if the viscosity is reduced in the low viscosity channel as expected strike slip dislocations are the most effective in driving horizontal deformation in the far field in comparison with dip slip ones it is noteworthy that horizontal velocities are maintained longer in the far field in comparison with radial ones which is not surprising since momentum is propagated in far regions essentially in the horizontal direction radial deformation is generally lower in the far field vlbi techniques with a precision of a few parts per billion over distances of 103 km can detect global post seismic deformation induced by large earthquakes our results affect the interpretation of the transfer of stress and seismic activity among different plate boundaries

temporal changes in the cumulative piecewise gradient of a variant of the gutenberg richter relationship and the imminence of extreme events abstract it is generally found that the relative frequencies of occurrence of earthquakes of different magnitudes in seismogenic zones have a power law distribution for a long term dataset the overall slope of this logarithmically transformed distribution is usually indicated by a best fit straight line and expressed as a b value this slope is stable and normally lies between 0 8 and 1 2 the actual value depending on the region examined and the threshold selected for data completeness the linearity of the distribution can be used to make statistical inferences about the potential for larger events over the long run and with appropriate reservations may even be extrapolated to magnitudes that are beyond recent experience we suggest the same information can also be viewed over shorter intervals in terms of an empirical piecewise distribution with relative frequencies of occurrence at adjacent magnitude steps controlling the local slope of the distribution an emergence through time of an excess number of lower magnitude earthquakes causes temporal changes to appear in the low end piecewise gradients of this distribution a marked excursion away from an overall uniform trend for the particular zone may be indicative of an imminent larger event on two separate occasions in 1982 and 1997 such temporal variations were seen in the magnitude distributions of sequences of events near tobago west indies and used to anticipate subsequent damaging mainshocks the recognition of temporal departures from overall linearity of the magnitude frequency relation in a suitable dataset may thus provide an evidential element that can contribute to earthquake forecasting this phenomenological approach was used in the analysis of the neic global dataset of earthquakes of magnitude 6 1 and bigger for the period 1973 2003 to explore its wider applicability trends in the piecewise gradients of the global data were interpreted as pointing to an imminent great earthquake perhaps exceeding magnitude 8 5 such an event did occur shortly afterwards in the form of the great sumatran earthquake of 2004 12 26 following that event global magnitude production continued to exhibit sharp imbalances in the lower magnitude bins indicating that another similar event was likely the second sumatran earthquake on 2005 03 28 satisfied that projection since that time a magnitude production imbalance persists in the global dataset suggesting the system could be poised to output an earthquake or earthquakes in the magnitude range 8 6 9 0 or even greater this contribution describes the piecewise gradient approach and examines its application to global earthquake data

spatiotemporal patterns in the energy release of great earthquakes for the past 80 years the energy released in great strike slip and thrust earthquakes has occurred in alternating cycles of 20 to 30 years this pattern suggests that a global transfer mechanism from poloidal to toroidal components of tectonic plate motions is operating on time scales of several decades the increase in seismic activity in california in recent years may be related to an acceleration of global strike slip moment release as regions of shear deformation mature after being reached by stresses that have propagated away from regions of great subduction decoupling earthquakes in the 1960s

viscosity of oceanic asthenosphere inferred from remote triggering of earthquakes a sequence of large interplate earthquakes from 1952 to 1965 along the aleutian arc and kurile kamchatka trench released accumulated stresses along nearly the entire northern portion of the pacific plate boundary the postseismic stress evolution across the northern pacific and arctic basins calculated from a viscoelastic coupling model with an asthenospheric viscosity of 5 x 10 17 pascal seconds is consistent with triggering of oceanic intraplate earthquakes temporal patterns in seismicity at remote plate boundaries and space based geodetic measurements of anomalous velocity over an area 7000 by 7000 kilometers square during the 30 year period after the sequence

detection of a large scale mass redistribution in the terrestrial system since 1998 earth9s dynamic oblateness j2 had been undergoing a decrease according to space geodetic observations over the past 25 years until around 1998 when it switched quite suddenly to an increasing trend that has continued to the present the secular decrease in j2 resulted primarily from the postglacial rebound in the mantle the present increase whose geophysical cause s are uncertain thus signifies a large change in global mass distribution with a j2 effect that considerably overshadows that of mantle rebound

long term earthquake clustering summary we analyse statistically the long term properties of several instrumental earthquake catalogues complete catalogues exhibit both short and long term clustering for earthquakes of all depth ranges after accounting for the effect of short term clustering we find that in residual declustered catalogues long term clustering not periodicity characterizes the occurrence of all earthquakes shallow intermediate and deep the degree of clustering in residual catalogues is the same for earthquakes in different depth ranges circumstantial evidence indicates that the long term v ariation of seismicity is governed by a power law temporal distribution as in short term clustering it is scale invariant the fractal dimension of an earthquake set on the time axis is of the order of 0 8 0 9 therefore mainshock occurrence is closer to a stationary poisson process than standard aftershock sequences of shallow earthquakes

spatio temporal microseismicity clustering in the cretan region abstract spatio temporal clustering of microseismicity in the central forearc of the hellenic subduction zone in the area of crete is investigated data for this study were gathered by temporary short period networks which were installed on the islands of crete and gavdos between 1996 and 2004 the similarity of waveforms is quantified systematically to identify clusters of microseismicity waveform similarities are calculated using an adaptive time window containing both the p and s wave onsets the cluster detection is performed by applying a single linkage approach clusters are found in the interplate seismicity as well as in the intraplate seismicity of the continental crust in the region of the transtensional ptolemy structure the majority of the clusters are off the southern coast of crete in a region of elevated intraplate microseismic activity within the aegean plate clusters in the gavdos region are located at depths compatible with the plate interface while cluster activity in the region of the ptolemy trench is distributed along a nearly vertical structure throughout the crust extending down to the plate interface most clusters show swarm like behaviour with seismic activity confined to only a few hours or days without a dominant earthquake and with a power law distribution of the interevent times for the largest cluster precise relocations of the events using travel time differences of p and s waves derived from waveform cross correlations reveal migration of the hypocenters this cluster is located in the region of the ptolemy trench and migration occurs along the strike of the trench at 500 m day relocated hypocenters as well as subtle differences in the waveforms suggest an offset between the hypocenters and thus the activation of distinct patches on the rupture surface the observed microseismicity patterns may be related to fluids being transported along the plate interface and escaping towards the surface in zones of crustal weakness ptolemy structure triggering swarm like cluster activity along its way

measuring the flow intrusion towards building areas during urban floods impact of the obstacles located in the streets and on the facade abstract this paper provides through laboratory experiments the flow discharge passing from a flooded street to a building area through different types of damaged openings a door a window and a gate along with a sensitivity analysis of this discharge to the presence of obstacles or facade details four flow regimes in the street are tested representing a high or low street slope with a high and low water depth these flows resemble that over rectangular side weirs with the major difference that obstacles are usually located near the opening in the street or on the facade 26 configurations of obstacles are then included one after the other and their impact on the flow intrusion is measured for the flow cases without obstacle the agreement of the semi analytical equations available in the literature strongly varies from one equation to another on the other hand the 220 tested flow cases reveal that the location of the obstacle with regards to the opening strongly modifies the impact of the obstacles that increasing the froude number tends to increase the impact of the obstacles and that obstacles have a higher impact on the intrusion discharge through a window than to a door or a gate finally we conclude that the largest obstacles typically parked cars located in the vicinity of openings should be somehow included in operational numerical models that calculate urban floods for a fair prediction of the intrusion discharge

seismicity trends and potential for large earthquakes in the alaska aleutian region the high likelihood of a gap filling thrust earthquake in the alaska subduction zone within this decade is indicated by two independent methods analysis of historic earthquake recurrence data and time to failure analysis applied to recent decades of instrumental data recent may 1993 earthquake activity in the shumagin islands gap is consistent with previous projections of increases in seismic release indicating that this segment along with the alaska peninsula segment is approaching failure based on this pattern of accelerating seismic release we project the occurrence of one or morem 7 3 earthquakes in the shumagin alaska peninsula region during 1994 1996 different segments of the alaska aleutian seismic zone behave differently in the decade or two preceding great earthquakes some showing acceleration of seismic release type a zones while others show deceleration type d zones the largest alaska aleutian earthquakes in 1957 1964 and 1965 originated in zones that exhibit type d behavior type a zones currently showing accelerating release are the shumagin alaska peninsula delarof and kommandorski segments time to failure analysis suggests that the large earthquakes could occur in these latter zones within the next few years

the 1960 chilean earthquakes an unusual foreshock sequence that began with an earthquake of moment 2 0 1021 n m and rupture length of about 150 km preceded the great 1960 chilean earthquake earthquake relocations of the sequence show a progression of seismic activity toward the initiation of the main shock the rupture length of the great 1960 chilean earthquake is estimated from the distribution of aftershocks and crustal deformation to be 920 100 km the source mechanisms of a foreshock and two aftershocks are determined and used to constrain the source mechanism of the main shock the first event in the sequence ruptured the segment of the peru chile trench between 37 03 s and 38 74 s whereas the great 1960 chilean main shock ruptured the adjoining segment to the south the great 1960 chilean main shock initiated within the rupture area of the first event and terminated near the intersection of the chile ridge with the peru chile trench 46 5 s

predictive modeling of the seismic cycle of the greater san francisco bay region the seismic cycle for the san francisco bay region is synthesized by a model combining the pre and post 1906 seismic histories the long term acceleration of seismic release seismic moment benioff strain release or event count in the seismic cycle and the shorter term accelerations preceding the larger earthquakes within that cycle are modeled using an empirical predictive technique called time to failure analysis in which rate of seismic release is proportional to an inverse power of the remaining time to failure the exponent of time to failure in the accelerating sequences appears to be scale invariant and the length of the full cycle is estimated at 269 50 years the 1989 loma prieta earthquake which is the culmination of the first subcycle in the present long term seismic cycle should have been predictable with an uncertainty of 2 years in time and 0 5 in magnitude although the specific location at loma prieta was not predictable by this technique if our model is correct and if the loma prieta earthquake is the culmination of a subcycle the san francisco bay region should be entering a relatively long 20 50 years period of seismic quiescence above magnitude 6 a great earthquake such as the 1906 san francisco event would appear to be more than a century in the future

evidence for a global seismic moment release sequence temporal clustering of the larger earthquakes foreshock mainshock aftershock followed by relative quiescence stress shadow are characteristic of seismic cycles along plate boundaries a global seismic moment release history based on a little more than 100 years of instrumental earthquake data in an extended version of the catalog of pacheco and sykes 1992 illustrates similar behavior for earth as a whole although the largest earthquakes have occurred in the circum pacific region an analysis of moment release in the hemisphere antipodal to the pacific plate shows a very similar pattern monte carlo simulations confirm that the global temporal clustering of great shallow earthquakes during 1952 1964 at m 9 0 is highly significant 4 random probability as is the clustering of the events of m 8 6 0 2 random probability during 1950 1965 we have extended the pacheco and sykes 1992 catalog from 1989 through 2001 using harvard moment centroid data immediately after the 1950 1965 cluster significant quiescence at and above m 8 4 begins and continues until 2001 0 5 random probability in alternative catalogs derived by correcting for possible random errors in magnitude estimates in the extended pacheco sykes catalog the clustering of m 9 persists at a significant level these observations indicate that for great earthquakes earth behaves as a coherent seismotectonic system a very large scale mechanism for global earthquake triggering and or stress transfer is implied there are several candidates but so far only viscoelastic relaxation has been modeled on a global scale

frequency of occurrence of moderate to great earthquakes in intracontinental regions implications for changes in stress earthquake prediction and hazards assessments we investigate the departure of shallow intracontinental earthquakes from the frequency magnitude relationship log n m a bm we consider seven large continental regions but exclude subduction zones in each active and stable areas are differentiated within active areas we separately categorize earthquakes on faults with high slip rates we use data sets from 1978 1994 and 1900 1994 which are complete for moment magnitudes mw 5 3 and 7 0 to calculate changes in b value with mw for all active intracontinental regions combined except asia b changes at 98 confidence from 0 90 to 2 1 at a corner magnitude mc of 6 9 to 7 0 the distribution for stable regions indicates a similar change values of mc are associated with downdip widths of rupture of about 23 to 27 km which are smaller than those for subduction zones in each case mc marks a transition from unbounded to bounded earthquakes in asia events from 1958 to 1994 also delineate a similar change near mc 7 0 earthquakes in asia of 7 0 mw 8 1 from 1900 to 1957 however define a b value of 1 0 and a moment release rate 5 6 times higher than that from 1958 to 1994 those anomalous values indicate that a large region of asia was close to failure i e near a self organized critical state during the earlier period we associate those changes with the giant himalayan earthquake in 1950 of mw 8 6 regional variations in seismic strain release rates correlate with the types of processes at adjacent plate boundaries extrapolating rates of activity of the past 95 years to mw 8 0 indicates that such events should be very rare in stable areas